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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, January 15, 2007

1993 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Reggie Jackson, Steve Carlton, Phil Niekro, Ron Cey, Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Madlock, Darrell Porter, Cecil Cooper and Hal McRae.

Top-ten returnees: Pete Rose, Pete Browning, Nellie Fox, Jimmy Wynn, Charlie Keller, Quincey Trouppe, Edd Roush and Rollie Fingers.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 15, 2007 at 01:57 PM | 144 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 15, 2007 at 02:07 PM (#2280609)
I'll post a ballot sometime this week.

I could have just placed the top-four candidates in random order at the top of my ballot and left it at that, but I'd rather construct my ballot a little more scientifically than that. :-)
   2. Brent Posted: January 15, 2007 at 02:49 PM (#2280616)
1993 Ballot:

1. Pete Rose – A surprisingly easy pick as number one. A 17-time all star—I’d have picked him 16 times. The memory of him struggling to catch Cobb may lead some to forget that he actually aged quite well--his age 33-40 seasons were much stronger than one would expect based on his earlier career. (PHoM 1992)

2. Reggie Jackson – I have him ranked ahead of Yastrzemski, ahead of Greenberg, and just behind Mize. (PHoM 1993)

3. Steve Carlton – I could have gone either way with Carlton and Niekro. Over 11 seasons (1969-70, 72, 74, 76-78, 80-83) Carlton averaged 19-11, 3.4 wins above team, 271 IP, 128 DERA+, 230 SO, 88 BB. CYA for 1972, 77, 80, 82. (PHoM 1993)

4. Phil Niekro – Over 14 seasons (1967-69, 71-80, 84) he averaged 17-14, 2.8 wins above team, 125 DERA+, 177 SO, 84 BB. (PHoM 1993)

5. Phil Rizzuto – Excellent defense; above average hitter at his position; key contributor to many pennants. (PHoM 1967)

6. Ken Singleton – (PHoM 1991)
7. Hugh Duffy – (PHoM 1931)
8. Bobby Bonds – (PHoM 1987)
9. Alejandro Oms – (PHoM 1967)
10. Jimmy Wynn – (PHoM 1985)
A cluster of outfielders who didn’t have super-high peaks or super-long careers, but each of them put up many seasons at the all-star level.

11. Tony Pérez – He had a lot of empty seasons on either side, but from 1967-78 he was right up there too.

12. Sal Bando – See my comparison of Bando and Childs. Best available third baseman. (PHoM 1987)

13. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

14. Gavy Cravath – Among the pure hitters, he has the strongest credentials. (PHoM 1976)

15. Elston Howard – An outstanding peak from 1961-64 and a bit of extra credit for delays in integration. (PHoM 1977)

Near misses:

16–20. Dean (PHoM 1958), Fox (PHoM 1979), Welch (PHoM 1966), Redding (PHoM 1976), Grimes (PHoM 1940)
21–25. Bresnahan, Keller, F Howard, Leach (PHoM 1932), Newcombe
26–30. Cepeda, R Smith, Brock, Van Haltren, Arlett

Other consensus top 10:

Pete Browning – I think his selection would be a mistake – poor fielder, weak leagues, short career, and trouble staying in the lineup.

Nellie Fox – # 17, just misses.

Charlie Keller – # 22. I used to say that I was a peak voter, but lately this electorate has gotten to be even more peak-oriented than I’m comfortable with. I guess I’ll call myself a prime voter.

Quincy Trouppe – With little information available on his fielding skills, I don’t see how to distinguish him from catchers like Schang and Lombardi, who were good with the stick but not impressive defensively. I’ve ranked him behind Elston Howard, whose defensive excellence was clear.

Edd Roush – He had only 5 seasons in which he played 90 percent of his team’s games. In a field this tight, that's enough to knock him out of the running.

Rollie Fingers – I see him as part of a cluster of fine relievers who don’t quite rise to the ballot cutoff.

Other new arrivals:

Ron Cey - # 52. Surely a fine player, but not the defensive wizard that BP imagines him to have been.

Steve Garvey - # 97. Post-season credit lifts him into my top 100.

Cecil Cooper, Darrell Porter, Davey Lopes, and Bill Madlock were all very good players who missed my top 100.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: January 15, 2007 at 03:15 PM (#2280627)
Jackson was underrated at the time; clear #1; Yaz was better but not by much. Niekro and Carlton incredibly close, and both a small touch below Perry, who like them was a pitching Beckley. Shall put both just below Beckley and go Niekro/Carlton because N. was a knuckleballer, on preservationist grounds. Cey low on consideration set – short career (Grich, but not as good a hitter and 3B instead of 2B) Garvey off the bottom (very mediocre). Matthews short and mediocre, Lopes short and not quite good enough. Madlock’s distinctly better than Cey – around the Klein/Johnson level, just off ballot. Porter just too short, even when corrected for catcherhood. Cooper, McRae, DeCinces not good enough.

1. (N/A) Reggie Jackson. Clear #1 and I actually quite liked him at the time. TB+BB/PA .544 TB+BB/Outs .811

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-2) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 70 “years” ago.

3. (N/A) Phil Niekro. Incredible longevity and pretty good. 318-274, 5404 innings at 115, OPS+ 8. Really equal to Carlton; greater length offset by Carlton’s hitting.

4. (N/A) Steve Carlton 329-274, 5217 innings at 115, OPS+33. Hope all 3 of these beat the ghastly Rose into the HOM; they were all MUCH better players as well as superior human beings.

5. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7-5-5) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA. Getting close to the HOM, and thereby boosting my consensus score!

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9-8-6-6) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7-7) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!
   4. karlmagnus Posted: January 15, 2007 at 03:16 PM (#2280630)
11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

12. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-11) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

13. (N/A-12) Pete Rose Hugely, but hugely overrated, another massive error by WS. 4256 hits at 118. 149CS to 198SB subtracts another 50 from that. TB+BB/PA .462 TB+BB/Outs.710, mostly in a hitters era. Sheer stupidity in all its forms deserves to get marked down. I was hoping to have him 16, but the opinion of others (see, I do listen!) has convinced me to raise him here. That’s as far as it goes, though.

14. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

15. (N/A-15-N/A-13-13-15-14-12-14) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.


16. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Will be back on soon.

17. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765. Off again, will return.

18. (N/A-15-N/A) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long.

19. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

20. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far – back up towards ballot in Pierce’s slot.

21. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

22. (N/A) Bill Madlock. 2008 hits at 123, but he was a 3B. TB+BB/PA .477, TB+BB/Outs .708.

23. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

24. Reggie Smith 2020 hits at OPS+ of 137. Extra intangibles for membership of Impossible Dream. TB”BB/PA .537, TB+BB/Outs .810. Better player than I thought at the time.

25. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

26. Toby Harrah 1954 hits@114. TB+BB/PA .465, TB+BB/Outs .697 If full-time SS, would be on ballot.

27. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Downgraded on consideration of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP.
28. Ben Taylor.
29. Jim Kaat
30. Orlando Cepeda
31. Norm Cash
32. Tony Perez. Even here may be too high. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
33. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy.
34. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
35. Cesar Cedeno
36. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
37. Lou Brock
38. Mickey Vernon
39. Thurmon Munson
40. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
41. Sal Maglie.
42. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
43. (N/A) Heinie Manush
44. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
45. Bob Elliott
46. (N/A) Dick Lundy
47. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
48. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
49. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
50. Gene Tenace
51. Kiki Cuyler
52. Deacon McGuire
53. Jerry Koosman.
54. Boog Powell
55. Ken Singleton.
56. Sal Bando.
57. Jim Fregosi.
58. Jack Quinn
59. Tony Mullane
60. Rollie Fingers. Add 1/3 of his saves and he becomes 228-118 or thereabouts, but on my adjustment (add 50% and subtract 5 ERA+ points) he goes to 2550/114, which isn’t enough.
61. Ron Cey 1868 hits at 121. TB+BB/PA.503 TB+BB/Outs.746 On, but not close. Not as good as Madlock.
62. Pie Traynor
63. Jim McCormick
64. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
65. Joe Judge
66. Edd Roush Same quality as Beckley but less valuable defensive position and 20% shorter career. Yes, he’s good, but Beckley’s a lot better.
67. Spotswood Poles.
68. Larry Doyle
69. Curt Simmons
70. Roger Bresnahan.
71. Waite Hoyt.
72. Harry Hooper.
73. Vada Pinson
74. Gil Hodges
75. Jules Thomas.
76. Rico Carty.
77. Wilbur Cooper
78. Bruce Petway.
79. Jack Clements
80. Bill Monroe
81. Herb Pennock
82. Chief Bender
83. Ed Konetchy
84. Al Oliver
85. Jesse Tannehill
86. Bobby Veach
87. Lave Cross
88. Tommy Leach.
89. Tom York

Three Top 10 off my consideration set:

Fox is Rabbit Maranville again, off my ballot with OPS+ well under 100 – I think the old-timers overrated the importance of SS fielding, and underrated the possibility of getting a SS who could hit.

Wynn not nearly good enough a hitter; think we’re giving an excessive CF premium compared to other OF positions.

Keller’s a hitting Dizzy Dean; all peak but very short career (missed 1 ½ years for war, but even with them would be under 1400 hits)
   5. Chris Cobb Posted: January 15, 2007 at 04:25 PM (#2280663)
Karl: you say that Madlock’s distinctly better than Cey, but by the rate stats you look at TB+BB/PA, TB+BB/outs, Cey is better, .503/.746 vs. .477/.708 in 270 more games. His OPS+ is slightly lower than Madlock's, but he was probably a better fielder. Not that we are likely to elect either Madlock or Cey, but I am puzzled by your conclusions here.
   6. OCF Posted: January 15, 2007 at 05:21 PM (#2280693)
1993 Ballot.

1. Steve Carlton RA+ Pythpat 328-252.
2. Phil Niekro RA+ Pythpat 334-266. The difference between Carlton and Niekro is Carlton's 1972.
3. Reggie Jackson Peaked very early. Almost all of his longish career was decline phase. Context tends to make the height of that early peak hard to see, but it was very high.
4. Pete Rose (----, 2) The best leadoff hitter of his own time (ahead of Brock), and one of the best leadoff hitters of all time. A career voter's candidate.
5. Larry Doyle (2, 5, 4, 2, 4) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. Some other voters' comments have portrayed him as not mediocre, but historically bad, a "statue." If so, why did the defense-obsessed writers vote him a Chalmers award? I tend to doubt that John McGraw would have put up with that bad a defensive liability.
6. Quincy Trouppe (3, 6, 5, 3, 5) More so even than most Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork. But I've been convinced for a while.
7. Jimmy Wynn (5, 8, 7, 4, 6) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
8. George Van Haltren (6, 9, 8, 5, 7) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
9. Tommy Bridges (8, 11, 10, 6, 8) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
10. Bucky Walters (9, 12, 11, 7, 9) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
11. Orlando Cepeda (4, 7, 6, 8, 10) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
12. Norm Cash (7, 10, 9, 9, 11) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
13. Frank Howard (10, 13, 12, 10, 12) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
14. Lou Brock (12, 15, 14, 13, 13) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
15. Sal Bando (13, 16, 15, 14, 14) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
16. Bob Elliott (14, 17, 16, 15, 15) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
17. Tony Perez (----, 16) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
18. Rusty Staub (---, 12, 17) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time. Not Frank Howard's peak, but some peak anyway.
19. Luis Tiant (15, 18, 17, 16, 18) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value - and more reason for caution, as we try to figure out how many 70's pitchers are worthy.
20. Reggie Smith (16, 19, 18, 17, 19) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
21. Jake Beckley (17, 20, 19, 18, 20) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
22. Darrell Porter (new) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
23. Ken Singleton (--, 20, 19, 21) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter. So he goes behind Smith. And as for that peak: I like Hondo's better.
24. Ron Cey (new) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
25. Rollie Fingers (---, 20, 22) I'll do a more extensive reevaluation when we get to Gossage.
26. Gene Tenace (-, 21, 22, 21, 23) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)
27. Dick Redding (18, 22, 22, 22, 24)
28. Luis Aparicio (19, 23, 23, 23, 25) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
29. Bobby Bonds (20, 24, 24, 24, 26) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
30. Hugh Duffy (21, 25, 25, 25, 27) Nothing new to say after all these years.

Maranville, Vernon and Fox just slipped out of my top 30. Roush would be #35 or 36, after Rizzuto. Both Roush and Keller have playing time issues.

Davey Lopes: As a hitter, the near-equal of Bobby Doer (and Buddy Myer and Dick McAuliffe). One of the best of the late bloomers. Not far from my ballot.

Hal McRae: I won't be considering DH as a position, and it has no place in "position balance" arguments as anything other than "just another bat." Some players near him in composite value on my corner outfielders list: Felipe Alou, John Titus, Chick Hafey, Jim Rice. (I won't be voting for Rice, either.)
   7. . . . . . . Posted: January 15, 2007 at 05:28 PM (#2280696)
3. karlmagnus Posted: January 15, 2007 at 10:15 AM (#2280627)

Jackson was underrated at the time; clear #1; Yaz was better but not by much. Niekro and Carlton incredibly close, and both a small touch below Perry, who like them was a pitching Beckley. Shall put both just below Beckley

Nothing like the sweet smell of strategic voting in the morning.
   8. ronw Posted: January 15, 2007 at 05:28 PM (#2280697)
1993 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Pete Rose. 20.4 bWS/700PA, 7 MVP, 17 AS. I liked the way Pete played. He was my favorite Phillie in 1980. (The Reds were just slightly before my time.)

2. Reggie Jackson. 24.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 14 AS. I like the Reggie Bar.

3. Steve Carlton. 21.1 pWS/300IP, 5 CY, 12 AS. Lefty was one of my favorites.

4. Phil Niekro. 20.8 pWS/300IP, 6 CY, 14 AS. Until I did the analysis, there is no way I would have had Niekro close to Carlton.

5. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined.

6. Pete Browning. 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

7. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. Soon to get eclipsed by a boatload of HOM 3B.

8. Roger Bresnahan. 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

9. Hugh Duffy. 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

10. George Van Haltren. 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

11. Tommy Leach. 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

12. Bill Monroe. The ultimate overlooked candidate.

13. Luis Tiant. 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

14. Vic Willis. 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

15. Lou Brock. - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career sounds pretty good to me.

16. Charlie Keller. 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit.

17. Jimmy Wynn. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone.

18. Ben Taylor. I think Ben was a bit better than Jake.

19. Jake Beckley. 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

20. Larry Doyle. 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.


C. Quincy Trouppe. Very close to the ballot. I have come around on him.

C. Wally Schang. 19.8 bWS/700 PA, 0 MVP, 11 AS.

1B. Orlando Cepeda. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

2B. Nellie Fox. 13.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. I like Doyle and Monroe better. Fox wouldn’t be a horrible selection.

3B. Pie Traynor. 16.2 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS.

SS. Herman Long. 13.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

LF. George J. Burns. 20.5 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS.

LF. Bob Johnson. 21.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 12 AS.

CF. Roy Thomas. 23.0 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS.

CF. Edd Roush – 21.9 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. I’m not giving holdout credit.

RF. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS.

RF. Ken Singleton. 22.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS.

SP. Urban Shocker. 24.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 7 AS.

SP. Wilbur Cooper. 22.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Eddie Rommel. 24.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Bucky Walters. 22.6 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS.

SP. Dizzy Dean. 27.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 6 AS.

SP. Mel Harder. 20.5 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 5 AS.

RP. John Hiller. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 5 AS.

RP. Sparky Lyle. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 4 AS.

RP. Rollie Fingers – 33.0 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 4 AS. Why is he so much better than in the voting than contemporaries Hiller and Lyle?


New Notables

Ron Cey – 18.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. WARP likes him better.

Steve Garvey – 17.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 9 AS.

Davey Lopes – 17.7 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 7 AS.

Gary Matthews. 19.2 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 7 AS.

Bill Madlock. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 6 AS.

Darrell Porter. 17.1 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 6 AS.

Cecil Cooper. 19.3 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 6 AS.

Hal McRae. 18.9 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS.
   9. Daryn Posted: January 15, 2007 at 06:56 PM (#2280723)
I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.

1. Pete Rose -- #1 all time in times on base, 5th in runs, 10 time top 10 MVP candidate. Inner circle.

2. Reggie Jackson -- all of the top four are easy picks for me, but I was surprised that Reggie was probably closer to Rose than the pitchers.

3. Steve Carlton -- I was surprised that Niekro was so close to Carlton. I gave the edge to Carlton for 1972.
4. Phil Niekro -- great, great pitcher. It will be a shame for any of these four to miss on their first ballot (of course, Rose already has). I see all four of these guys as demonstrably superior to Grich.

5. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: One, until next Monday. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

6. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

7. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

8. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

9. Tony Perez – this might be a bit high, but I am comfortable with it. 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

10. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

11. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

12. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

13. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

14. Luis Tiant, p – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

15. Rollie Fingers – he is a real borderline closer for me. As of now (1993), I think he is meritorious, so I have him here. I definitely prefer Tiant, and I prefer Fingers to Dean, who is my next pitcher. If Fingers is still on the ballot in 2006, he might move down.

29. Edd Roush – little difference between Buzz, Roush and Ryan, except the era and the contexts.

33. Jim Wynn

Trouppe is below Bresnahan and Schang for me (both are in my top 40).

Keller does not have the career to make my consideration set.
   10. Adam Schafer Posted: January 15, 2007 at 07:37 PM (#2280746)
1. Pete Rose - After the boycott the end result is that he (probably) gets elected this year and Niekro has to wait.

2. Reggie Jackson - not much explaining needed.

3. Steve Carlton - not much needed here either

4. Rollie Fingers - I am probably going to be one of the bigger supporters of the reliever. I more or less treat the reliever as if they are their own "position" and I feel that the most deserving of relievers should be elected.

5. Charley Jones - He dominated when he was playing, and would've dominated if he hadn't been blacklisted.

6. Gavy Cravath - I admit he took advantage of the park he was playing in. More power to him for doing it. I bet the other players were jealous that they weren't taking advantage of it to the extent that he was.

7. Edd Roush - he recieves 1930 credit.

8. Nellie Fox - lots of career value.

9. Orlando Cepeda - Very good for a nice long time.

10. Phil Niekro - the big suprise for me this year. I initially thought that I'd have him ranked right behind Carlton. He obviously didn't fare as well as I had hoped. Still top 10 for me isn't bad.

11. Cecil Travis - this is obviously giving very generous WWII credit.

12. Bucky Walters - Just enough career value mixed with the right amount of peak to make my ballot.

13. Tony Oliva - never great, but consistently very good

14. Don Newcombe - if you give him credit for missed years, he has tremendous career value

15. Vern Stephens - a power hitting shortstop and perennial MVP threat is hard to ignore

The rest of my ballot, in order
Bobby Veach
Chuck Klein
Jack Quinn
Ernie Lombardi
Lefty Gomez
Johnny Pesky
Quincey Trouppe
Roger Bresnahan
Charlie Keller
Rocky Colavito
Dolf Luque
Hack Wilson
Hugh Duffy
Thurman Munson
Jake Beckley
Levi Meyerle
Burleigh Grimes
Carl Mays
George Foster
Larry Doyle
Dizzy Dean
Frank Howard
Pete Browning
Bob Elliot
Tommy Bridges
Wally Schang
David Orr
Johnny Sain
Bob Johnson
Fred Dunlap
Addie Joss
Duke Farrell
Lave Cross
Luis Aparicio
John McGraw
Harvey Kuenn
Walker Cooper
Stu Miller
Lon Warneke
Norm Cash
Catfish Hunter
Heinie Manush
Al Rosen
Mike Marshall
Gene Tenace
Vic Willis
Deacon McGuire
Herman Long
Ed Williamson
Urban Shocker
Al Oliver
Sam Rice
Tony Perez
Steve Garvey
Mike Tiernan
Ginger Beaumont
Lou Brock
Jim McCormick
Tommy Bond
Dom DiMaggio
George Kell
Pie Traynor
Elston Howard
Mickey Welch
Tommy Henrich
Henry Larkin
Ed Konetchy
Mickey Vernon
Reggie Smith
Kiki Cuyler
Ron Cey
Rusty Staub
Ed Yost
Gus Weyhing
Jimmy Ryan
Gil Hodges
Bobby Murcer
Sparky Lyle
Eddie Cicotte
Stuffy McInnis
Tommy Leach
Lefty O'Doul
Charley Root
Jack Daubert
Buddy Lewis
Dave Bancroft
Lloyd Waner
Jack Chesbro
Herb Pennock
Vada Pinson
Wilbur Cooper
Tony Lazzeri
Vida Blue
Ken Singleton
Tony Mullane
Luis Tiant
Roy Thomas
Jim Kaat
Phil Rizzuto
Denny McClain
Claude Passeau
Wilbur Wood
Rabbit Maranville
Dizzy Trout
Joe Wood
Sal Bando
George Van Haltren
Mel Harder
Bobby Bonds
Boog Powell
Tom York
Dave Kingman
Mike Cuellar
Jimmy Wynn
Dick Bartell
Deacon Phillippe
Freddie Fitzsimmons
Lee May
Wally Berger
Rube Marquard
Virgil Trucks
Milt Pappas
Mickey Lolich
Jerry Koosman
Dave McNally
Amos Otis
Jesse Tannehill
Roger Maris
Johnny Vander Meer
Sad Sam Jones
Jack Powell
Bert Campaneris
Nap Rucker
Baby Doll Jacobson
Hal Schumacher
Earl Whitehill
Tug McGraw
Joe Judge
John Hiller
   11. karlmagnus Posted: January 15, 2007 at 08:03 PM (#2280752)
'zop, nonsense. They're where I had Perry his year.

Madlock has a better OPS+ than Cey, his lower TB+BB/PA and TB+BB/Outs are presumably due to park effects. Neither is likely to crack my top 15, and I think I may have Madlock too high.
   12. Rusty Priske Posted: January 15, 2007 at 08:26 PM (#2280757)
My PHoM this year is 2-4 ont he ballot, since the #1 is already in.

1. Pete Rose (1,x,x)

An easy number one for me.

2. Reggie Jackson (new)

Despite Rose being an easy #1, Reggie is closer to 1 than 3.

3. Phil Niekro (new)
4. Steve Carlton (new)

These could have gone in either order.

5. Jake Beckley (6,3,3)

When is the next slow year?

6. Tony Perez (3,x,x)

Very underrated.

7. Nellie Fox (8,6,7)

See Perez, Tony

8. George Van Haltren (7,4,5)

See Fox, Nellie

9. Rusty Staub (5,2,x)

Best name in baseball. :)

10. Edd Roush (10,10,4)
11. Jimmy Wynn (9,9,9)
12. Tommy Leach (12,5,6)
13. Mickey Welch (14,12,10)
14. Quincy Trouppe (11,11,12)
15. Lou Brock (13,8,11)

16-20. Duffy, Cash, Cepeda, R.Smith, Johnson
21-25. Cedeno, Redding, Ryan, Willis, Browning
26-30. Singleton, Bonds, Rice, Streeter, Grimes
   13. rawagman Posted: January 15, 2007 at 08:42 PM (#2280767)
'zop - as much as I disagree with karlmagnus' voting, I highly doubt his Beckley placement is at all strategic. Karl knows Beckley won't go in this in and we have a 4 horse race for three slots. He admitted that he wishes Rose loses out. If this was a strategic vote, he would have put Carlton and Perry above Beckley to ensure they get his elect-me slots and the extra numbers. His vote hurts Carlton ever so slightly - which may help Rose rise above him and in.
Points for grace, no points for style.
   14. DavidFoss Posted: January 15, 2007 at 08:49 PM (#2280770)
Madlock has a better OPS+ than Cey, his lower TB+BB/PA and TB+BB/Outs are presumably due to park effects.

Its not park effects (Cey was in a slightly lower context (96 vs 97 in "AIR")).

I think its because your "TB+BB" metrics are actually underrating "hits" (at least compared to OPS+). Hits are present in both OBP and SLG while XBH and BB are only present in one each. I think two metrics you cite, (TB+BB)/PA and (TB+BB)/Outs are quite close to (if not almost exactly) two well-known metrics BPA and TA. Some people may actually prefer these to OPS+ -- I don't know -- I'm just explaining why they compare differently using these than they do with OPS+. Their OPS+'s are quite close anyhow (BM-123/RC-121).

Since you are not much of a fan or either Madlock or Cey, I suppose its a bit of a moot point. :-)
   15. rawagman Posted: January 15, 2007 at 08:50 PM (#2280771)
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. An unbelievable top 4 to play with this week. I could make a reasonable argument for any ordering, but I'm going to go with my gut and give the day to the pitchers. Anyway, pitchers are expected to win the battle 75% (or so) of the time. So maybe it means mroe to excel in that regard. I didn't boycott rose, so he's already in my PHOM - easily allowing Lefty, Knucksie and Reggie! to walk right in. I have Rose ahead of Jackson as I think Jackson was close to a defensive liability whereas Rose was fully capable of playing well at several positions.
Other newbies - Ron Cey impressed me with his overall game. 3rd among eligible 3B, but looks like he's just outside my personal in/out line. Steve Garvey looks like a slightly lesser version of Beckley/Perez. 50th overall for me. I have also read about Beckley that he was a poor thrower. Bill Madlock is 11th among eligible 3B, DeCinces, 19th. Both HoVG.
Davey Lopes is 17th among 2B. Cecil Cooper starts off at 12th for 1B. Darrell Porter is 12th among catchers.
Hal McRae's bat did not make up for his anaemic (or worse) defensive contributions (can it be a detrimental contribution?), and subsequent lack thereof.

1)Steve Carlton - This is my closest ballot ever. His peak wins the top spot for me. (PHOM)
2)Phil Niekro - He and Carlton are so, so close for me. The careers are virtually even, Niekro has a better prime, Carlton, the peak years. It's a crap shoot, and I'll stand by this placement. (PHOM)
3)Pete Rose - I don't buy a veto. Gambling on baseball is bad while you are involved in the game - no doubt. So are steroids. If an individual gambled on the game while active during a certain percentage of his career, does that nullify the rest of the career? Not in my book. I am inclined to lower his career accomplishments, but no more than the last few seasons. I cannot discount him enough to rank below a player who's contributions are as one-dimensional as Jackson. (PHOM)
4)Reggie Jackson - A wonderful player, to be sure. This placement should not be seen as an insult. Gavvy Cravath with a much longer career. The main reason why I keep Rose ahead of him is his defensive usefullness. BTW - I read Roger Kahn's October Men this week, and while vastly entertaining, did not change my overall perception of R Martinez J.(PHOM)
5)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
6)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
7)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
8)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
9)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
10)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
11)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week. (PHOM)
((11a)Bobby Grich - inauspicious debut? A very good 2B. I prefer Fox's longevity to Grich's uberstats. That said, Grich right now is next in line for PHOM status.))
12)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations. (PHOM)
13)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
((13a)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.))
((13b)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))

14)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
((14a)Willie Stargell - His particular career has proven to be a real challenge to my system. I think this will be among his lower rankings. But if I didn't jump all over Billy Williams, then Willie can only be here.))
15)Orlando Cepeda
((15a)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.))
16)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarilites between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two. Career length is nice as well.
17)Wally Berger - super-underrated
18)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((18a)Juan Marichal))
19)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy.
20)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
21)Roger Bresnahan
22)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
23)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((23a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((23b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers diferently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevent over the years.))

24)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled releiver system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
25)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
26)Chuck Klein
27)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
28)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit.
29)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
30)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves down this week as I make up for the error that counted his whole career as a CF.
31)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
((31a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
((31b)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.))

32)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((32a)Cupid Childs))
33)Pete Browning
34)Rollie Fingers - When he was on, forget about it. Unfortunately, I don't feel that he was on consistently enough to merit anything, much higher than this. It seems that his abundance of 15th place votes last year was a lot of voters hedging their bets.
35)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
36)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
37)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
38)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
39)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
40)Phil Rizzuto
41)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit. Too much 'what-if' to rank higher. I do not give minor league MLE credit for being blocked. Integration, yes. Non-MLB affiliation, yes. Having someone else the franchise liked better at the time above you, no.
42)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
43)John McGraw
44)Jimmy Ryan
45)Cy Williams
46)Amos Otis - Forgot to include him last year. Very comparable to the next guy. Bat and glove trading off.
47)Jimmy Wynn - First I overrated him, like some of you (IMHO). Then I underrated him. I think this is more demonstrative of his true level. Impressive rates, nice gloveman. Not much else to set him apart.
48)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
49)Tony Perez - This is THE Jake Beckley comp, in terms of overall level and value. Still, not my type.
50)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
51)Dolf Camilli
52)Fred Dunlap - Very short career
53)Pete Reiser - The biggest "what-if" on my ballot. If you like Keller, look at the Pistol.
54)George Kell
55)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
56)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
57)Sal Bando
58)Pie Traynor
59)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
60)Johnny Evers
61)Elston Howard
62)Bob Johnson
63)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
64)Bill Mazeroski
65)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
66)Vic Willis - A reaximantion of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
67)Red Schoendienst
68)Thurmon Munson - see below.
69)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
70)Johnny Pesky
71)Hippo Vaughn
72)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
73)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
74)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
75)Rocky Colavito
76)Denny Lyons
77)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
78)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
   16. OCF Posted: January 15, 2007 at 09:00 PM (#2280777)
There are 24 possible relative orders among the top 4 candidates. Within the first 8 votes, we've had 5 of those orders already. I assume there will be more variants.
   17. DavidFoss Posted: January 15, 2007 at 09:04 PM (#2280779)
'zop - as much as I disagree with karlmagnus' voting, I highly doubt his Beckley placement is at all strategic.

If there is a strategy, its about keeping Beckley's name active in the weekly debates. He's actually started some discussions by saying he "almost" voted Beckley over a guy. :-) I'm not sure if its helping his candidacy or not, but Beckley is certainly one of the more "famous" members of our backlog around here.
   18. jingoist Posted: January 15, 2007 at 10:02 PM (#2280815)
Karlmagnus; why don't you tell us all how you really feel about Pete Rose the person, the player?
   19. karlmagnus Posted: January 15, 2007 at 10:24 PM (#2280827)
I actually can't believe you guys are all voting Rose over Carlton. Probably a HOM'er -- just -- but clearly the weakest of the 4, IMHO.
   20. OCF Posted: January 15, 2007 at 10:54 PM (#2280838)
I have no particular problem with the idea of Rose fourth out of four - that's where I put him myself. But with Rose and Beckley somewhat comparable (very long careers, played some 1B, had more defensive value than McCovey), the mental contortions required to put Beckley ahead of Rose are amazing and appalling.

...mostly in a hitters era. Sheer stupidity in all its forms ...

A nifty little snip from karl's ballot. He didn't intend for these two phrases to refer to each other, but even to refer to Rose's career as "mostly in a hitters era" counts as sheer stupidity.
   21. DavidFoss Posted: January 16, 2007 at 12:04 AM (#2280868)
Like any new number, bb-ref's new "AIR" value deserve to go under some scrutiny before its widely used. But, looking at its definition it looks pretty safe. Its just he OPS+ of a players league-and-park-adjusted context numbers in a .335/.400 league. Plus, we already adjust to the league-and-park-adjusted context numbers anyways, this is just quick eyeball value of how much we adjusted.

Pete Rose's AIR number is 96. 4% lower offensive context than "normal".
   22. karlmagnus Posted: January 16, 2007 at 12:19 AM (#2280873)
It's perfectly simple. Beckley 125, Rose 118 and Beckley's defensive value was at least as good. No contortion involved. Rose gets further modest demerits for excessively stupid baserunning, which cost his team outs.
   23. Rob_Wood Posted: January 16, 2007 at 04:44 AM (#2280989)
1993 ballot from this highly career voter (with a fairly low replacement level):

1. Pete Rose - simultaneously over- and under-rated
2. Reggie Jackson - just slightly below Rose
3. Steve Carlton - just a bit above Niekro due to peak
4. Phil Niekro - way underrated, has IP in spades
5. Jake Beckley - luv the career, though peakless
6. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
7. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/minor lg credit)
8. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career (where's the luv?)
9. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman for a long time
10. Tony Perez - good career though he was only an adequate 3B defensively
11. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career (similar to Perez)
12. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
13. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
14. Jimmy Wynn - tremendously underrated player
15. Charlie Keller - slowly inching his way up my ballot
16-20 Roush, CJones, RSmith, Klein, Maranville

Not voting for Browing (around 100th), Trouppe (around 100th) and Fingers (around 50th).
   24. TomH Posted: January 16, 2007 at 01:16 PM (#2281066)
well, it sure don't seem to matter much who I rank 5-thru-15 this week, do it, so here goes a 1993 ballot. Strong class of new guys pushes more players off our ballots, causing lots of extras "why I didn't vtoe fors..."

Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Pete Rose (2) [3]
Should not ever be allowed to have a position in MLB. Clearly did NOT belong on the all-century team. But an obvious HoFer and HoMer based on his playing career.
2- Reggie Jackson {new}
Overrated post-season heroics, and obnoxious. But a great, great ballplayer. Put him in the modern game and he would have hit over 700 home runs.
3- Steve Carlton {new}
The poster boy for athletes not knowing when they are “done”.
4- Phil Niekro {new}
Those knuckleball-induced unearned runs lower him a bit. But quite a horse. Rare for us to have a solid HOMer in my #4 spot.
5- Jake Beckley (4) [11]
Great career.
6- John McGraw (5) [40]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen, and short of 1890s infielders.
7- Bucky Walters (6) [14]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
8- Bob Johnson (7) [16]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists.
9- Frank Chance (8) [58T]
A great player on great teams. <u>Better hitter than Gavy Cravath.</u>
10- Dick Redding (9) [12]
My rankings for not-yet-honored NgLgers goes Redding, Monroe, Trouppe, Oms, E Howard, Easter, all-of-the-rest. And the odds that I have them exactly in the unknown “correct” order is … virtually zero. But this is what I gots.
11- George Van Haltren (10) [22]
A career of <u>Three Hundred and Eighty</u> Win Shares when translated to a full schedule. Our other bazillion backlog outfielders fall well short of that.
12- Charlie Keller (11) [7]
MiL credit and a pinch of great World Series stats gets him on.
13- Louis Tiant (12) [26]
Four postseason starts. Averaged 8.5 innings, 2.6 ERA, team won all 4 games. Take THAT, Bob Gibson and Jack Morris!
14- Rollie Fingers (off) [ ]
LOTS of post-season credit. And he needs it to get on the ballot.
15- Jimmy Wynn (13) [6]
He doesn’t look much different than Smith or Bonds or Oms, and how many outfielders do we want to elect? I’m lukewarm.

Edd Roush – George Van Haltren began his career almost a year later in age than Roush. And ended his career a year earlier. In that shorter period of time, Van Haltren gained more Win Shares, and more WARP (either W1 or W3, take your pick) than Roush. Apparently a majority of our voters think both of the uber-stat systems are in error in their assessment. Apparently I disagree with the majority of our voters.

Nellie Fox is around 25; similar to LuAp, Rizzuto, RabbitM, Bancroft. I’d just as soon have Bill Monroe.

Quincy Trouppe is also around #25 for me. Poor anecdotal evidence weighs him down some.

Pete Browning – cover up his seasons before age 25, when he was in a very weak AA, and he looks like Babe Herman.
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: January 16, 2007 at 02:02 PM (#2281078)
1993 ballot, our (and my) 96th

The fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

I had last year's electees Seaver-Grich at 1-3 on my ballot.

1. STEVE CARLTON - Remarkably, even more of a workhorse than Niekro, and packs a best-5 wallop that means he's well ahead of both bulldogs like Perry and Jenkins and artists like Marichal. Maybe he's hurt in some systems by not putting the peak into consecutive years, but not here. I hadn't realized how much better Seaver was, but that doesn't keep Carlton off the top spot on this ballot in a tight race.
2. REGGIE JACKSON - Three OPS+ers over 170, with eight over 150 and 13 over 130. Like Carlton, packed peak, prime, AND career into his resume. Slightly hurt by indifferent fielding and DH time vs Carlton who could hit a little (.201 career). On a killer ballot like this, the little things can mean a lot.
3. PHIL NIEKRO - Almost identical career to Perry's, except Niekro's best 2 were a little bit better. They're about even in durability, too. I do have to account for the unearned-run issue here, as the passed balls really were the result of Phil's knuckler. Overall, a very underrated career.

4. PETE ROSE - All-time leader in OS (Out Shares). I had him a curly hair ahead of Grich last year, but he can't compete in this rarefied air. His best OPS+ of 158 matches Reggie's 5th-best. Will benefit from misleading Win Share tally, unfortunately. Hard to like doesn't begin to describe it, although if you too got a copy of the "Charlie Hustle" hardcover book as a kid you'd understand why he ran to 1st base off each walk drawn. His ridiculous durability, longevity, and chameleonic position changes furiously willed him to this slot. Truly was a force of nature, if you missed his prime. Overrated by history, but the intensity was palpable. Excellent player for a long time, easy HOMer - but since he didn't get in last year, he oughta wait another year.
5. ROLLIE FINGERS - A devilish career to evaluate. So how does he wind up atop my backlog again this year? Mainly, lack of competition. But he has many pluses: nine seasons with 100 relief IP (Rivera has one, as a setup man). He won about 100 games in relief not as a vulture, but as a guy pitching when it mattered most. For those dazzled by modern save totals, realize that Fingers was in the top 4 in his league in SVs 11 times (to 7 for Rivera). But most of all, what wins Fingers this slot is his inherited-runner numbers (and bonus to his World Series heroics). Fingers' teams just kept winning games he pitched for them - often he'd win himself, and often he'd save the day with runners on (not to seem to be slighting the great Mariano, a better pitcher, but he rarely does that). There is intriguing data that suggests that the Yankees' Wang is deliberately inducing grounders most of the time - and then raising his K rate only when needed. In some way, I think Fingers was SO good in the 'clutch' for so long that it seems like he was not just getting lucky over and over again. Either way, the results were of immeasurable value. Still, no complaints if he has to wait for more debate.
6. PETE BROWNING - For last year's ballot, I looked again at the 1890 PL season. Browning at age 29 leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. But in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This poor fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not enough to keep him off this ballot.
7. NELLIE FOX - The best of an era at his position. But is this the Sewell argument all over again - one I ultimately found went against Sewell? I'm wavering but not yet convinced. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great defensive 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. A lot more seasons than Sewell at middle infield, that helps. (Yes, I looked at Bancroft last year. Tempting, but not quite there on him yet.)
8. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over a dozen strong years. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
9. JAKE BECKLEY - Ah, the great polarizer. I should note that this is not as much a "elect Beckley" play as a "hey, they're making me pick 15 people vote, and I don't like the other guys more."
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (though not as much as I used to think), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters. The biggest issue for him may be the 8 seasons in the 120s - I find that quite valuable given era and position; others do not.
10. BOB ELLIOTT - Bob helps me from being TOO far ahead of the consensus pack, lol. If you haven't examined him in a while - or ever - get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B (Madlock had 5, Cey had 4)! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
11. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot.
12. QUINCY TROUPPE - Leaped onto my ballot for the first time ever a few years back, as I'm now starting to believe he wasn't just a durable, long-career catcher. A better hitter than I'd thought previously - he didn't always get to play against many HOMers, but stacked up nicely when he did.
13. CHARLIE KELLER - Third time on my ballot. Poor man's Ralph Kiner, but even Kiner's election didn't quite get him onto my ballot before. Of his six actual big seasons, one was a weakened 1943 and another is a slight issue, 1942. I don't mind bumping close guys up and in during the war, but the pct of extrapolation here has been a little too much for me.
14. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
15. EDD ROUSH - The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re WW I. Reggie Smith is an interesting comp. Lucky to be in the Hall of Fame, but too good for too long to avoid gaining his (first-ever?) spot on my ballot.

JIMMY WYNN - Wildly underrated by baseball fans, and threatens to be just as wildly overrated here. I almost like Reggie Smith better, and surely Johnson, maybe Cravath, Keller and maybe Howard were just as good or better. Still, the OPS+s are undeniable, the fielding/position gives some boost. Has not yet reached my ballot, but might next year if he's still around.

RON CEY and BILL MADLOCK - The not-quite Bob Elliott 3Bs. Might get further consideration, as they may battle Perez and Elliott for one ballot spot in the waning years.
STEVE GARVEY - Looks like Beckley with lower peak and shorter career. Great scooper at 1st, but couldn't throw.

BUCKY WALTERS - Slipped back off the ballot after being on the last 2 years; very borderline. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from Welch on my ballot in certain years, but maybe not for good.
FRANK HOWARD - An astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons, too. Had five more solid ones as well; I think he had more impact even admitting the fielding demerits in relation to Wynn.
GAVY CRAVATH - Second time off my ballot in about 20 years, in reconsideration of Baker Bowl - sure he smartly took advantage, but others didn't have that opportunity. Still, I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd have been right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. Will return to my ballot.
THURMAN MUNSON - Don't overrate the "if only" bonus, because his career was near-done, especially as a catcher. But a very nice prime on some very good teams, and clearly he had a big part in that, also hit for a high avg in the postseason. Compares quite well with electee Freehan.
ELSTON HOWARD - I am troubled by the combo of shortened career plus durability issues, but I've decided he deserves more offbeat credit than Charley Jones does. Damn shame he caught in the wrong organization; not much reason for anyone to claim 'Yankee pride' when it comes to reviewing this case.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the innings usually just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, not sure yet.
   26. DL from MN Posted: January 16, 2007 at 03:32 PM (#2281139)
1) Pete Rose - the defensive value and long career add up.
2) Phil Niekro - Again the long career makes a difference.
3) Steve Carlton - I've zeroed out the crappy years which is something I usually don't do on the 1st ballot.
4) Reggie Jackson - a little more career value at the plate than Rose but a lot less defensive value. Below average fielding LF.
5) Bob Johnson - he seems to be bubbling up on other ballots
6) Luis Tiant - I'd take him over Fingers on my team
7) Norm Cash - Does well in comparison to Tony Perez. Better glove and more bat.
8) Quincy Trouppe - Best C available
9) Jake Beckley - ballot starts getting tighter at Trouppe
10) Rusty Staub - Long career, I may be overrating his defense
11) Reggie Smith - I'm giving him credit for a year in Japan
12) Tommy Bridges - We're short on war era pitching and he's the best available
13) Tony Perez - The defensive value is necessary for him to sniff the ballot because the stick isn't great for a 1B.
14) Gavy Cravath - I did a more thorough job of evaluating his minor league credit and he moves up
15) Jim Wynn - going with the consensus here because there is such a small difference between him and Trucks. Still I think I have too few 2B/SS/3B on the ballot

16) Virgil Trucks - Has anyone looked at his leverage? He had a lot of relief appearances.
17) Bus Clarkson - very good bat for an infielder, unknown defensive reputation but it couldn't be too bad or he would have been moved off the top defensive positions more often. Played a lot of 2B/SS/3B. If it had all been at SS he'd be in the top 10.
18) Orlando Cepeda - Better bat than Perez, not quite the glove
19) Edd Roush - Not a lot of difference between Roush and Wynn
20) Dave Bancroft - moved up with my boost to infielders. I realized in the HoF voting exercise that I had the infielders ranked too low. Best glove of his era, above average bat. If he hadn't been elected to the HoF already we'd be raving about a great sabermetric find.

21-25) Charlie Keller, Dutch Leonard, Bob Elliott, Ron Cey, Jack Quinn
26-30) Luke Easter, Dick Redding, Vic Willis, Urban Shocker, Jerry Koosman
31-35) Frank Howard, Johnny Evers, Bobby Bonds, Hilton Smith, Alejandro Oms
   27. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 16, 2007 at 03:33 PM (#2281143)
I totally overhauled my system, finally. I'm now 100% over to the Keltner-based system, no more interval-based system. Negro Leaguers aren't yet in my system, but I'm doing the leg work to get them in. It'll be a long process because I'm trying to hone some of the information I've used in the past to create better projections for Mexico and other places (like getting super rudimentary PFs for MxL teams.) But that's very much in the distance at this juncture.

1993 Prelim
Rank : Name : Un(mentally)adjusted Rank at Position : Keltner Points*
(*Points for pitchers aren't exactly the same as for hitters, so I'm guesstimating them; also to even off the pitcher and hitter rankings, I just divide pitchers rankings by three.)

1. Reggie Jackson (t-4th) 66pts: About as good a case as Paul Waner, though the value is much differently accumulated.

2. Phil Niekro (t~4th) 67 pts
3. Steve Carlton (t~4th) 67 pts
The difference between Knucksie and Lefty? Not much. They are nearly the same guy. Niekro had one more year where he was a top CYA finisher, but Carlton has other markers on his favor, esp his 1972 year for the ages. My system says take Phil's career value, and I'm OK with that. Anyone ever seen a lefty knuckleballer?

4. Pete Rose (~5.5th combined) 60 pts: Great career, with goodly amounts of peak too. Because he switched positions so often he misses out on a wee bit of credit from my system for positional dominance, but it wouldn't be enough to push him over the hurlers.

5. Quincy Trouppe (high, around Ted Simmons) ?? pts: Trouppe’s the best catcher available. We’re beginning to find more consensus on this guy, and I hope he’s inducted before 2007. His case seems pretty damned solid to me, and while he’s missing documentation of several years at the beginning of his career, we know that
a) he was playing
b) he was good

So what’s the issue? How’s it different than, say war credit? Not too much different. See my comments in the New Eligibles thread (around #865) for more details.

6. Edd Roush (t10th) 43 pts: He and Duffy score the same in this system, and they are right in the middle of the HOM-level pack of CFs. This rating only includes holdout credit tangentially as a tie-breaker between Edd and Hugh.

7. Hugh Duffy (t10th) 43 pts: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a solid selection.

8. Wilbur Cooper (10th) ~45 pts: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

9. Larry Doyle (11th) 39 pts: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

10. Tommy Leach (11th combo CF and 3B) 38 pts: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

11. Ken Singleton (12th) 42 pts: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons. I’m becoming more comfortable with the conclusions of my Keltner-based system, and this vote is reflective of that.

12. Sal Bando (11th) 35 pts: There’s evidence on all sides here. Some evidence suggests that Bando is obviously inferior to Boyer and maybe to Elliott. Some of that evidence, however, is based in WARP, and given some of the discussion going on lately about it, I’m really down on it as a useful information source, and we already know it has issues with replacement for fielding that may or may not skew its findings. And anyway, is FRAA bulletproof either? I don’t know. Of course other evidence doesn’t include the DH factor.

But there’s very strong evidence in Bando’s favor compared to those other guys. Namely that he, unlike they, was at some point arguably the best player in his league (early 70s), and that he dominated his position for a long period of time. Now we often reflect on the fact that the AL before and somewhat during Bando was a wasteland for 3B, but that misses the point that

a) the same is true for Brooks, who easily won election with a weaker peak/prime
b) the same would be true for other pet 3B candidates like Pie Traynor
c) the same is true for Elliott whose main competition was the very good but not durable Whitey
Kurowski, the good not great P.H. Jones, the WW2 portion of Stan Hack’s career, and a sliver of Eddie Mathews
d) there’s room for all of them.

Now, I’ll grant, I’m a WS voter. Boyer and Bando look very similar, but WS sees what I see: more dominance at the peak end for Bando. So that’s where my vote is going.

13. Bucky Walters (12th) ~41 pts: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

14. Pete Browning (12th) 38 pts: Fabulous hitter. True he benefited from weak competition in the early AA, but also true that he hit great in the PL and early 90s NL. I’m comfortable that he was a sufficiently good enough hitter to have a ballot spot near the other CFs, and even after adjusting his stats to reflect QoP, this system likes him a lot. A little less than before, but a lot nonetheless.

15. Charley Jones (?) 28 pts: I figured with all kinds of adjustments and stuff that Charley would bound up my rankings. He didn't. He's just below the "in" line. But the missed time is likely disruptive enough to Jones's evaluation in my system that it is creating a ranking that is simply too low. That's why we draw up ballots because there is subjective stuff that's important to comparing players to one another. I believe he's a HOMer, but I can't go off all half-cocked and stick him at number 6 when my system has him well off the ballot. Othwerise, why have a system? This placement is designed to support him but to give me more time to think about how much support he merits in the crowded LF backlog, viz how badly the system is being fooled by the missing time.

-Ron Cey (t-30th) 18 pts: Tied in my rankings with Ken "HOMer" Boyer, but my system don't like Boyer.
-Steve Garvey: (28th) 19 pts: About 10 or so slots from being HOMable.
-Davey Lopes (t-29th) 13 pts: Amazing that all three of these Dodger guys are roughly even in my all-time rankings. I didn't try to make that happen....
Bill Madlock (don't ask) 5 pts: Amazing that a guy with this low of a rank can own a 123 OPS+. Well, Madlock's the kind of candidate that can confound this system. He was never the best at his position because he played in a great era for 3Bs. He was never near an MVP award because he wasn't quite multifaceted enough as a player. Combine these two and he's close but hardly ever gets a WS All-Star nod. He didn't last long, so no extra-prime contribution credit, and his career isn't all that bulky so he doesn't comp out well with enshrinees. But there's that 123 OPS+ and the batting titles and a SLG that was goodly above average too. He's no HOMer, but I kind of wonder if he's about as good as Ken Boyer. The glove isn't there, but he's 800 PAs away and he leads Boyer by 7 points in OPS+....
-Darrell Porter (22nd) 14 pts: A slot behind Schalk; he's very close. But as the modern catchers come up, he'll be less and less a stand-out. HOVG. He's also part of

The Johnny Cash Song All-Star Team:
C-Hey Darrell Porter
1B-Give My Love to Pete Rose
2B-I Never Picked Cotton Tierney
3B-The Ballad of Charlie Hayes
SS-Tresh and Blood
RF-San Quentin McCracken
CF-Mickey Big Rivers
LF-Daddy Wags Sang Bass
DH-Red Dooin My Time
SP-Jimmy Ring of Fire
SP-Ballad of a Teenage Mel Queen
SP-Bob Walk The Line
RP-The Rebel Eddie Yuhas

-Cecil Copper (t-32nd) 15 pts: I've got him in a flat-foot tie with Gil Hodges. A smidge behind Pedro Guerrero and Sunny Jim Bottomley.
-Hal McCrae: McRae is the current leading DH candidate....

-Nellie Fox (15th) 32 pts: Just off my ballot, a very solid HOM citizen some day.
-Jimmy Wynn (17th) 31 pts: Just off my ballot, a very solid HOM citizen some day.
-Charlie Keller (24th) 22 pts: Ranking includes war credit. He's just far enough off that 1+ season of war credit doesn't push his profile over the in/out line the way it might for Jones who came out extremely close to the in/out.
-Rollie Fingers (5th among RP) 26 pts: I think we'll be overpopulating RP if we choose Fingers and Gossage from their era.
   28. DL from MN Posted: January 16, 2007 at 03:51 PM (#2281151)
Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Madlock, Hal McCrae, Cecil Cooper - out of top 125
Darrell Porter - 49th, between Munson and Tenace among catchers

Nellie Fox - moved up slightly, still sitting around 100 with Dom DiMaggio and Tony Oliva
Rollie Fingers - 53rd, behind Bobo Newsom among pitchers
Pete Browning - 58th, between Colavito and Charley Jones among OF
   29. DL from MN Posted: January 16, 2007 at 04:45 PM (#2281198)
You've got to find room for (I'm Going to) Reggie Jackson in that outfield.
   30. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 16, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2281222)
You've got to find room for (I'm Going to) Reggie Jackson in that outfield.

Right behind Billy Sunday Coming Down. (who is also on the All-U2 Team as Sunday Billy Sunday.

The All-U2 Songs Team
c: Where Gabby Street Has No Name
1b: With or Without Drew Henson
2b: Angel Salazar of Harlem
3b: Who's Gonna' Ride Your Wild Horses of the Osage
ss: All I Want Is U.L. Washington
of: Scott Bullet the Blue Sky
OF: Sunday Billy Sunday
OF: Curtis Pride (in the Name of Love)
DH: In God's Country Slaughter
sp: Beautiful Leon Day
UMP: Trip Through Lee Weyer)
   31. NeverJustAGame Posted: January 16, 2007 at 05:48 PM (#2281236)
I am new to the site and would love to take part in the HOM process.Please direct me to the rules.
   32. DL from MN Posted: January 16, 2007 at 05:56 PM (#2281242)
I'd make Nick Esasky the 1B on the U2 team.
   33. DanG Posted: January 16, 2007 at 06:15 PM (#2281257)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady excellence over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1 and #3 were elected. Another treasure horde of HoMers in 1993: Mr. October, Lefty and Knucksie; The Penguin may also get some support. A really interesting mix of newbies in 1994: Simmons, Sutton, Nettles, Concepcion, Cruz, Guidry and Sutter. Thirdbasemen rule in 1995 as Schmidt, Evans and Bell come on; John and Rice also go in the pot. The class of 1996 has no shoo-ins, with Hernandez, Quisenberry, Reuschel and Lynn heading the newbies.

1) Steve Carlton – The first three are closely bunched, just outside the Hall’s inner circle. They’re all going in this year, so it’s no big deal. I like Lefty’s peak.

2) Reggie Jackson – Rates among the right fielders with Kaline-Clemente-Waner-Crawford, probably heading that pack.

3) Pete Rose (2,ne,ne) – Among the top 70 all-time. I rate him on his playing, not on his later misbehavior.

4) Phil Niekro – Loonngg career, nice peak. Solid, upper-midlevel HoMer.

5) Tony Perez (4,ne,ne) – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43.

6) George Van Haltren (5,2,4) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned; in six years, 1982 to 1988, he went from the #6 unelected player to #14. We’ve now elected 12 players who were behind him in 1970. Why? Now in his 85th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

7) Edd Roush (6,3,5) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Played 89.2% of his games in CF. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. The last six elections have seen him move into position for eventual election. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

8) Tommy Leach (7,4,6) – Cracked the top twenty in voting in 1988 for the first time since 1949. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

9) Jake Beckley (8,5,7) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top 15 seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19/19-18-18-18-17/17-17-16-16-15 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19/19-18-17-17-14/13-10—8—2—1 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19/19-17-17-17-15/12—9—9—7—7 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16/14-13-13-12-11/11—6—0—0—0 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16/13-12-11-11-10/09—8—2—0—0 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17/12-12-10-10-10/09—9—9—4—2 J. Doyle

10) Charlie Keller (9,6,8) – He’s Dick Allen without the baggage. Kiner’s election should cinch his. Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too. Players with OPS within .090 of CK’s, 1938-51, minimum 4500 PA:
1—1.116 T. Williams
2—1.015 S. Musial
3—.970 J. DiMaggio
4—.961 J. Mize
5—.928 C. Keller
6—.915 M Ott
7—.884 B. Johnson
8—.881 J. Heath
9—868 T. Henrich
10-.850 E. Slaughter
11-.840 R. Cullenbine

11) Burleigh Grimes (10,7,9) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller

12) Rusty Staub (11,9,ne) – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3.

13) Roger Bresnahan (12,10,11) – A couple more voters now (11) have some regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

14) Jimmy Ryan (13,11,12) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

15) Quincy Trouppe (14,13,14) – Fourth time on ballot. Recent discussion shows me he’s the most deserving NeL candidate out there, all the signs are positive. He may very well be the best catcher candidate as well.

Rabbit Maranville falls off; the last time that happened was 1986.

Top tenners off ballot:

Fingers was on my ballot, he likely will be again.

Fox has been on my ballot and should be again. Weaker league weighs him down a little.

Wynn is a bit short on career, but definitely on my radar. Would be on if he’d played more center field.

If we elect Browning it will be our biggest mistake. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era
   34. Qufini Posted: January 16, 2007 at 08:07 PM (#2281333)
31. NeverJustAGame Posted: January 16, 2007 at 12:48 PM (#2281236)
I am new to the site and would love to take part in the HOM process.Please direct me to the rules.

Hello, NeverJustAGame. If you're looking for the rules, then you want to go to the Hall of Merit main page. At the top of that page, there's a hotlink titled "Important Links." That will take you to a page which lists important threads. In that list, you'll find a hotlink to "Our Constitution." There have been a few changes to the Constitution regarding selections (we've reduced all elect-4 years to elect-3 years) and scheduling (we've switched to a three-week schedule for 2007 rather than the two-week schedule followed before now) but otherwise you'll find everything you need to know there.

The short version is this. As a new voter, you would be required to post a list of 15 players in a yearly discussion thread. That list should represent serious thought, and fairly reflect all eras (including Negro League players) and positions. The current voters will then discuss your ballot and likely challenge you as a means of determining whether or not you've given sufficient thought to your ballot. After that, your ballot will be declared eligible (usually by the administrator John Murphy) and you will be told that you can post it on the yearly ballot thread. And then you're a voter.

One thing I'm not sure about is a timeline. I remember that we discussed whether or not new voters would have to submit a ballot to the discussion thread before the ballot thread opens but I don't remember whether or not we actually accepted that rule. If we did, you wouldn't be eligible to vote for the 1993 election, but you could post a sample ballot to a 1994 discussion thread and prepare to vote in that election. If we didn't pass that rule, you could go ahead an post a sample ballot in the 1993 discussion thread as soon as you're ready.

I hope that answers your questions and I trust that John Murphy or another kind sole will correct any mistakes I may have made.
   35. TomH Posted: January 16, 2007 at 09:00 PM (#2281358)
Thanks, Chris. Welcome, NeverJustaGame! I'd add to Chris's comments, but my shoes have no kind of soles, nor am I even a 'Seoul man' :)
   36. favre Posted: January 16, 2007 at 09:11 PM (#2281363)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Reggie Jackson
2. Pete Rose
3. Steve Carlton
4. Phil Niekro

In the 1970s I was a scrawny, nerdy, completely unathletic kid who was always the last one picked for sports and knew nothing about baseball—but I knew that Reggie Jackson was the best player in the game. Now that I’m a fat, nerdy, completely unathletic adult who is always the last one picked for sports and spend much of my free time watching and studying baseball—well, Reggie wasn’t the best player of the 1970s, but he was reaaaaaaaaaaally good. His ten seasons with an OPS+ over 140, and fourteen seasons with an OPS+ of 130 or more, gives him the top spot.

The only other baseball player whose name I knew in the 1970s was Pete Rose. His personality has blurred what was truly a remarkable career. Even if Rose had retired after his last useful season (1981, when he led the league in hits and posted a 119 OPS+), he still would have had 3,697 hits, fourth all-time—much of that spent in a low-run era, with significant time playing 2B and 3B. Gets the second spot, because fewer guys have had careers like Rose than Carlton or Niekro, which is saying something.

I have Carlton just above Niekro, for the same reasons as many other voters.

5. Charley Jones
6. Jake Beckley
7. Jimmy Wynn

There is a group of sluggers in the backlog who have roughly the same resume: about 300 career WS (with credits and adjustments); a career OPS+ 150 or thereabouts, with a high somewhere in the 170s; eight or nine prime years (with various war/minor league credits); not a lot of defensive value. This group includes Gavvy Cravath, Charlie Keller, Frank Howard, Pete Browning (with AA adjustments), Mike Tiernan; Sam Thompson, already in the HoM, also fits in this group. All these guys have an argument for induction, but I think Jones is a cut above. He also had a high peak, but a longer prime (with blacklisted credit) and better defense than the others with the possible exception of Keller. Although I don’t give credit for any seasons before 1876, I do suspect that his late arrival in organized baseball was due to geographical factors.

Over the past thirty years Beckley has finished between seventh and sixteenth in the balloting, 25 times between eighth and thirteenth (12th place is his median finish). He keeps hanging around the end of the ballot, but never makes much movement up or down. With fifteen elections left, it will be very interesting to see if he makes it. You would think so, but…Jimmy Wynn is one of the 1970s sabermetric love children. Six seasons with an OPS+ of 140, five of those playing CF.

8. Vic Willis
9. Bucky Walters

Willis had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154). That’s comparable to Faber (4086/119) and Lyons (4161/118), and a whole lot better than Ruffing (4344/109). While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defenses were either in the service or growing old.

10. Nellie Fox
11. Bob Elliott

Boyer’s election gives us another fifties infielder, bringing us to six. (Boyer, Jackie, Pee Wee, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew and Robinson, but Killer wasn’t established as a full-time player until ’59, and Brooksie until 1960). That’s still too few for a decade of high quality, integrated play. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF. Rose arrives on the scene (as I was reminded) in 1963, so that would be about an eleven year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

It’s hard for me to see the difference between Bob Elliott (287 WS, 124 OPS+, 92.7 WARP1) and Ken Boyer (279 WS, 116 OPS+, 95.0 WARP1; not that I really care about WARP). We’ve only elected seven 3B who debuted before 1950, which seems a little paltry for eighty years of professional baseball.

12. Roger Bresnahan
13. Gavvy Cravath

We have a twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher. Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke.

14. Tommy Leach
15. Ken Singleton

Tommy Leach, an old favourite of mine, makes it back onto the ballot after a fifteen-year-or-so absence. 324 career WS, great defense at two key positions, and could hit some.

I’m throwing Singleton some love. If I’m going to vote for a 300 WS OF, I like voting for the guy with nine top ten OBP finishes. Looking ahead, it doesn’t seem like there are many 1970s outfielders heading for induction. Stargell and Yastzremski are in, although they played a lot of 1B in the decade; Reggie and Winfield are coming; then there’s a bunch of guys—Parker, Rice, Lynn, Evans, Bonds Sr.—clumped together. I think I like Singleton better than the rest, although I haven’t given Cobra or Dewey a complete look yet.

16-20: Eddie Ciccotte, Jim Fregosi, Larry Doyle, Wally Schang, , Tony Perez

Not in my top fifteen:

Charlie Keller See Jones comment. Currently #22. I don’t give minor-league credit to twenty-one year olds, although he does receive full war credit. That puts him in a glut of outfielders with similar arguments.

Pete Browning See Jones comment (again). I’m more sceptical of the AA than other voters, although there’s no doubt that Browning could mash.

Edd Roush Had some playing time issues. I give candidates from underrepresented positions/eras more weight; Roush was a contemporary of Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, and Torriente. That doesn’t remove him from consideration, but it doesn’t exactly lend a sense of urgency for his candidacy, either.

Rollie Fingers I’m an ERA+/Win Shares guy. Fingers does not look good using either system, although I am taking Joe’s data seriously. I definitely think Fingers is someone we should take our time with, rather than elect him in two or three ballots.

Quincey Trouppe One of the really interesting finds of this project…heck, why *aren’t* I voting for him? You know, with all due respect to Dr. C—who has been an invaluable contributor—at the end of the day, I just don’t fully trust the Mexican league MLE’s, and the war makes things even messier.
   37. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 16, 2007 at 10:59 PM (#2281448)
I am pretty sure that teh rule we agreed upon was that a new voter had to have his mock ballot scrutinized by thursday of a voting week so that we dont' have any last minute surprises. That said, Never has 2 days if he wants to vote this week.
   38. Mark Donelson Posted: January 17, 2007 at 02:22 AM (#2281538)
I’m a strong peak voter. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

No major changes this time—a few small moves up and down, but more along the lines of tweaking than major reassessments of any kind.

pHOM: Jackson, Carlton, Niekro

1993 ballot:

1. Reggie Jackson (pHOM 1993). Among the first megastars of the game I was aware of when he was playing—one of my earliest baseball memories is watching the 3-HR WS game in '77 (on TV). I thought I knew all about him, but I was floored by his consistency—just year after year of solidly above-average offensive production. I think that's what elevates him above the other three here.

2. Steve Carlton (pHOM 1993). I remember him as far more dominant—or consistently dominant, anyway—than he was; there are quite a few clunker years in there. I'd always thought of him as the NL's second-best pitcher after Seaver in his period (and the best once Seaver started to decline), which does not seem to have been the case, at least not clearly. Some of that is due to the chronic underrating of Niekro. And yet, I still put Carlton ahead—why? Well, after all is said and done, Niekro and Carlton, as many have pointed out, look awfully similar. My tiebreaker will always be peak when that happens, and I think Carlton's is a notch better.

3. Phil Niekro (pHOM 1993). Clearly he was underrated because he didn't "challenge" hitters—no Cy Youngs is just absurd—but even I had no idea by how much. He's got an excellent peak, and his innings-eating capacity made him uniquely valuable to his teams. Much more of a no-brainer HOFer than I ever realized. Perhaps a very slight demerit for the passed balls/unearned runs quotient, but it's not enough to get Rose by him.

4. Pete Rose (pHOM 1992). He, too, had a better peak than I'd realized--what's with all these supposed career candidates with strong peaks lately? A great player, all else aside, and an easy choice. I just like the other three guys a bit better....

5. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me.

6. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). First the ultimate peakster pitcher, then the ultimate peakster hitter. With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s very close to Kiner.

7. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Another lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

[7a. Bobby Grich. Definitely worthy, and still next in line for my pHOM.]

8. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. (I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats.) Demoted slightly—I felt I was wrong to have him about Williamson and Grich.

9. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he was in the mix—and his peak is still excellent.

10. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

11. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me.

12. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

13. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). Another player for whom the record is lost in the haze of the leagues he played in, but he appears to me to have been among the worthy catchers we've seen.

14. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluate outfielders, he does a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for.

15. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). No, he wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years to get my vote.
   39. Mark Donelson Posted: January 17, 2007 at 02:24 AM (#2281540)
16-20: C. Jones (1976), Fox (1986), Roush (1988), Gomez (1987), Bresnahan (1973)
21-25: J. Wynn (1987), Walters (1968), F. Howard, Duffy (1930), McGraw
26-30: [B. Williams], H. Smith, Oms, Doyle, Redding (1975), Pesky
31-35: Fingers, Chance, Singleton, Doyle, Bando, Trout
36-40: [Boyer], Joss, [E. Wynn], Berger, [Reese], H. Wilson, [Lyons], Leach, McCormick
41-45: [Minoso], T. Perez, Elliott, Cepeda, Munson, Burns
46-50: M. Marshall, J. Ryan, Rizzuto, Bobby Bonds, Easter

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Fox. Just dropped off the last two times around. He’ll be back. At #17 for now.

•Wynn. Not among my top unelected choices, but a very strong candidate, with a peak that surprised me. He’s in my pHOM now, and, at #21, not too far off ballot.

•Roush. Another guy whose peak doesn’t quite measure up to those of those on my ballot, but my opinion of him has risen lately; he’s just barely off-ballot now, at #18.

•Fingers. A tough nut to crack, but in the end I feel he doesn’t quite have the peak I’m looking for. All the other factors pump up his standing though, and he hovers right near my eventual in/out line for my pHOM. He’s at #31 right now.

•Beckley. I repeat: I’m an extreme peak voter. He’s not on my radar.

•Cey. Better than I’d realized, but his peak doesn’t reach even the lowered bar at his position. Doesn’t reach the Boyer/Bando/Elliott group for me, and I’m not even a huge partisan of those guys.

•Garvey. I take no position on whether or not he’s the antichrist; quality-wise, he’s down around Ed Konetchy—in other words, not close.

•Porter. Solid for a while at a tough position, and perhaps a surprise HoVG entrant, but just not enough there to challenge the backlog.

From there, it’s diminishing (diminished?) returns for everyone else. Though Bill Campbell did have a nice couple of years…
   40. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 17, 2007 at 03:26 AM (#2281561)

Bienvienvue! Welkommen! Come on in! I think you're supposed to also sign up at our yahoo groups area. This is generally helpful in case the site has downtime and Commish Joe or Sec't Murphy have important info to pass along. Also there's some nice files in there for the downloadin', great things to help you lose a few hours. ; )

With Quincy Trouppe, Alejandro Oms, and Dick Redding as the most viable remaining NgL players (Bus Clarkson and Marvin Williams are also worth a look-see*), I would recommend reading their threads very carefully. The equivalancies for them are the product of many months of work and refinement on Chris Cobb's part, and methodological statements can be found scattered about the various NgLer threads if you feel like you want the extra comfort of knowing exactly how the numbers came into being. If not, their threads alone ought to suffice, though the NgL P thread and the ballot discussion threads of several years back ought to help (for Redding in particular. My ballot cites a thread and post for the most recent summation of Trouppe's candidacy.

Otherwise, you'd better have good arguments ready for or against Browning, Jones, Fox, Wynn, Fingers, and especially Beckley.... ; )

*I'm reviewing some stuff lately for the Mexican data I've got, and I'm beginning to think that we may have really missed the boat on guys like Perucho Cepeda, Tetelo Vargas, and Pancho Coimbre. I am aware that their record is skeletal, yet we elected Grant and Johnson whose records were nonexistent. And this also brings us to Bill Monroe and his vanishing record as well. I'm not sure I'm saying we should all suddenly leap up and pore through sources for them, but in 2007, they will be the guys I am most likely to feel regret about. I mean would I rather have Thompson or Perucho? Boyer or Vargas? Terry or Coimbre? Doerr or Monroe? I suspect it's not so cut and dried.
   41. Rick A. Posted: January 17, 2007 at 04:24 AM (#2281598)
I tend to lean towards peak/prime, although a pure career candidate can sneak through at an important defensive position. I'm an anti-timeline, pennant-is-a-pennant voter. I give credit for wars, holdouts, strikes, blacklisting and players being in the minors when they're clearly MLB caliber, as well as NEL credit. I'm solidly in the WS camp, although I'll also look at OPS+, ERA+, IP, PA and ranking among contemporaries at their position. I do think that WS does miss on occasion, and I give a subjective bump to candidates who I think WS is off on.

Pete Rose
Reggie Jackson
Steve Carlton

1993 Ballot
1. Pete Rose - Boycotted last year. Elected PHOM in 1993
2. Reggie Jackson - Elected PHOM in 1993
3. Steve Carlton - Higher peak places him above Niekro. Elected PHOM in 1993.
4. Phil Niekro
5. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
6. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
7. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
8. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
9. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
10. Edd Roush – Better than Carey. Elected PHOM in 1975.
11. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
12. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
13. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
14. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
15. Dizzy Dean –Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.

Required Disclosures
Trouppe - Took another look, but decided that there are just too many questions to place him on my ballot.
Wynn, Keller and Fingers Just miss my ballot.
Fox In the mid 20's

New Candidates
Ron Cey Joins my 3rdbase glut. Not as good as Bando.
Steve Garvey Overrated. I have him quite a ways behind Cey.
Darrell Porter, Hal McRae, Bill Madlock Not in my top 100
Davey Lopes and Cecil Cooper Didn't really look at them too closely, but recent discussion makes me think I should. May be in top 100, but probably not on ballot.

Off the ballot
16-20 EHoward,Wynn,Keller,Bresnahan,Cravath
21-25 Fingers,Newcombe,Leach,Mays,Monroe
26-30 Fox,WCooper,Easter,Elliott,Traynor
31-35 TBond,Johnson,Singleton,Munson,Scales
36-40 Tiernan,FHoward,Trouppe,HSmith,Shocker
41-45 MWilliams,Bando,Doyle,FJones,Cey
46-50 HWilson,Rizzuto,Schang,McGraw,AWilson
   42. sunnyday2 Posted: January 17, 2007 at 04:34 AM (#2281603)
Doc, how about Silvio and Bobby Avila?

And while we're on Latino ballplayers, how about that Bobby Estalella?
   43. rawagman Posted: January 17, 2007 at 07:23 AM (#2281646)
I wouldn't leave Ben Taylor out of any Negro League studying. In fact, as a newbie, I would (I did when I was one) look at all players receiving votes. You will likely surprise yourself when you have a system that works for your own meritorial measurements.
   44. Sean Gilman Posted: January 17, 2007 at 08:03 AM (#2281657)

1. Pete Rose (2)--A vile human being with a surprisingly strong peak. At least I was surprised. (1992)

2. Phil Niekro (-)--An extremely difficult top four to rank this year. Niekro squeks ahead of Carlton on extended peak.

3. Reggie Jackson (-)--No-brainer for the straw. Sneaks in between the two pitchers.

4. Steve Carlton (-)--If not for that one great year, it would have been a lot easier to rank these guys.
(Bobby Grich)

5. Pete Browning (4)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

6. Charley Jones (5)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

7. Tommy Leach (6)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

8. Edd Roush (7)--A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s. Bumped over Doyle this year. (1985)

9. Larry Doyle (8)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

10. Hugh Duffy (9)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

11. George Van Haltren (10)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

12. Carl Mays (11)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit. (1968)

13. Alejandro Oms (12)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

14. Ken Singleton (13)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

15. Jimmy Wynn (14)--Another all-around outfield candidate who gets underrated because he doesn’t stand out in either peak or career. He’s just a little less round than Minoso, Roush or Oms.

(Earl Averill)
16. Bobby Bonds (15)
17. Charlie Keller (16)
18. Frank Howard (17)
(Joe Gordon)
19. Nellie Fox (18)
20. Quincy Trouppe (19)
(Red Faber)
(Red Ruffing)
21. Rollie Fingers (21)
22. Sal Bando (22)
(Bob Lemon)
23. Bucky Walters (23)
24. Wally Berger (24)
25. Cesar Cedeno (25)
26. George Foster (26)
(Ted Lyons)
27. Dick Redding (27)
28. Ed Williamson (28)
(Dobie Moore)
29. Tony Perez (29)
30. Rusty Staub (30)
31. Vada Pinson (31)
32. Ron Cey (-)
33. Norm Cash (32)
34. Bobby Murcer (33)
35. Orlando Cepeda (34)
(Billy Pierce)
36. Vern Stephens (35)
37. Roger Bresnahan (36)
38. Lou Brock (37)
39. Dave Bancroft (38)
40. Jimmy Ryan (39)
41. Rabbit Maranville (40)
42. Tony Lazzeri (41)
43. Bob Elliott (20)
44. Phil Rizzuto (42)
(Rube Wadddell)
(Rube Foster)
45. Gavy Cravath (43)
46. Reggie Smith (44)
47. Jake Beckley (45)
48. Bobby Veach (46)
49. Luis Tiant (47)
50. Dizzy Dean (48)
   45. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 17, 2007 at 01:40 PM (#2281686)
I think we're pretty close on Garcia, though once I get Mexico figured out he might go up or down a little bit. Avila is in that same boat. The rudimentary PFs I'll come up with with help a bit, and a stronger sense of the league's scoring will help too, and with any luck I'll be able to offer more information on the QoP, but I don't expect massive movement. However, Estallela's a little different story. We've got plenty of stat lines on him, but before about 1940 we don't have a lot of context for them. I don't know anything about his Pioneer and Class-B and Class-C leagues.

Does someone among us have any of those annual guides that list out all the minor leagues and recap them with stats and standings and stuff? Those are one place to start, but I don't know what they are caled and where to findthem.
   46. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 17, 2007 at 01:41 PM (#2281688)
Welcome, NeverJustaGame!

The guys did a good job of explaining of what is needed from you, but if you have any further questions, don't hesitate to ask.
   47. Daryn Posted: January 17, 2007 at 02:26 PM (#2281714)
A vile human being

There are a few comments to this effect regarding Rose in earlier threads too. Real hatred from some voters. I just don't get it. He is self-centred. He is a cheater. He lacks self-awareness and self-evaluation. He didn't kill or rape anyone that we know of. He's just a jerk -- a guy you might not want to be friends or even acquaintances with. But a vile human being?
   48. Dizzypaco Posted: January 17, 2007 at 02:37 PM (#2281722)
Its interesting that Pete Rose is described as a "vile human being" the same year Reggie is on the ballot. Not that I'm calling Reggie a vile human being either, but my guess is that if you asked players in the 70's who they would rather have as a teammate, Rose would do pretty well.

Throughout the history of baseball, there have been some great players whose personalities fall far short of their talent levels - Anson, Cobb, Hornsby, Allen, Reggie, Rose, Barry Bonds. There's no objective way to measure these things, but I don't think Rose is any worse than the rest of 'em.
   49. sunnyday2 Posted: January 17, 2007 at 03:07 PM (#2281737)
I'll tell you the guy who generates, well, who knows what the feelings are--real hate? I don't know. But who generates really inflammatory rhetoric, well, it's Mark McGwire. And I know we've just talked ad nauseum about it. But as time goes by I am more and more mystified. I mean, don't vote for the guy (I'm speaking now of sportswriters), but the columns that absolutely savage the guy...I don't get that. I mean, we know he used andro, which was neither illegal nor against baseball rules. We think--based on his virtual 5th Amendment claim before the U.S. Congress--that maybe he used something stronger. We think. Based on testimony before a body whose approval ratings are lower than McGwire's 23.5. The only thing I can figure is the writers think that he is actually Barry Bonds in drag. I dunno.

As for Rose, the commentary on Rose hasn't been as virulent as on McGwire, and I don't get that.
   50. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 17, 2007 at 03:25 PM (#2281755)
McGwire ain't nuttin'. Just wait until Barry Bonds's time comes, whether here or in the media. That's the real firestorm, that's when we'll see bile like we've never seen before. The George Vecseys of the world have already laid the groundwork with feet upon yards of column inches about how awful Barry is. They hated him before the scandal but now they have license to unshackle their hatred, and it won't rest until Barry's a distant memory and plaqueless.
   51. sunnyday2 Posted: January 17, 2007 at 04:10 PM (#2281781)
That's my point. They loved Mac and look where they've gone. They already hated Bonds. That's why I think they've dumped their feelings about Bonds on to Mac. IOW Bonds killed McGwire.
   52. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 17, 2007 at 04:40 PM (#2281802)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Pete Rose-RF/3B/LF/2B/1B (3): (holding my nose while I type this). Best ML right fielder in 1968. Best ML third baseman for 1975. Best NL third baseman for 1978.

2) Steve Carlton-P (n/e): Great peak and outstanding career make him a more than solid HoMer, though not in the Young/Johnson/Spahn/Seaver mold. Best NL pitcher for 1972 and 1980.

3) Phil Niekro-P (n/e): Closer than most people would have thought to Carlton during the '70s, since no one really thought Knucksie was a great pitcher at the time. In retrospect, that was a ludicrous stand. Best ML pitcher for 1967 and close in 1974. Best NL pitcher for 1974 and 1978.

4) Reggie Jackson-RF/DH/CF (n/e): I feel bad about not giving him an elect-me spot, since he was truly a great player. Best ML right fielder for 1969, 1971, 1973, 1976, and 1980.

5) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

6) Charlie Keller-LF (3): Thanks to James Newburg and others, I'm totally sold on "King Kong" now. Best ML right fielder for 1940. Best ML left fielder for 1943.

7) Charley Jones-LF/CF (4): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

8) Bucky Walters-P (5): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

9) Mickey Welch-P (6): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

10) Pete Browning-CF/LF (7): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

11) Vic Willis-P (8): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

12) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/DH (10): Glad to see that he's getting support now. Best player at his primary position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, and 1969. Best right fielder for 1972 and 1974.

13) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (11): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

14) Gavvy Cravath-RF (12): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

15) Alejandro Oms-CF (13): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

Fox, Trouppe, Roush and Fingers all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   53. sunnyday2 Posted: January 17, 2007 at 05:24 PM (#2281831)
1993 (elect 3)

I had hoped to do some more analysis of Jackson-Rose, but I'm not going to have time. So...Rose boycott over, but is he better than Reggie?

1. Reggie Jackson (new, PHoM 1993)—no, Reggie is somewhat underestimated due to a) boastful personality which many people resented, b) low batting average and c) the career-long bashing he took for a and b.

2. Steve Carlton (new, PHoM 1993)—great peak pitcher. Among ‘70s-centered careers, only Seaver is in the neighborhood. (On career, of course, there are others, but for peak, no.)

3. Pete Rose (x [boycott], PHoM 1993)—his peak is somewhat underestimated, occasionally by me, but this is one hell of a class here, whether you’re a peak or career guy. If I were more career-oriented, yes, Pete would probably have to be #1.

4. Edd Roush (6-10-5, PHoM 1976)—nice peak of 38*-33-30 (*short WWI season adjusted to 154), very well-rounded skills.

5. Phil Niekro (new)—well, yes, I’m peak-oriented but I don’t ignore careers and Niekro’s career beats the rest of the peaks. Another player that I’ve underestimated previous to now (IOW, he was no Don Sutton).

6. Charlie Keller (9-8-11, PHoM 1985)—“So, are you a peak voter or not?” “Yes, I am” “So, why the hell aren’t you supporting Charlie Keller?” “Well, I am, now, finally”

7. Rollie Fingers (3-3-new, PHoM 1991)—there’s no uber-stat that says Fingers is ballot-worthy, but I go back to Chris Cobb’s old test—who do you want in the HoM? And on that simple basis, subjective as it is, I want the #3 reliever of all-time in our knowledge base through 1991.

8. Nellie Fox (4-4-9, PHoM 1971)—one of the most valuable <100 OPS+ players ever; yes, clearly better than Bancroft, Rizzuto et al

9. Addie Joss (6-6-8, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available with a real career’s worth of IP.

10. Pete Browning (7-7-7, PHoM 1961)—with AA discount. Not a short career by standards of the time.

11. Tommy Bond (12-12-20, PHoM 1929)—great peak, had to bring him back.11. Dizzy Dean (23-23-26)—moves up, I had emphasized ERA+ a little too much, everything else points to Diz as a great one.

12. Elston Howard (15-15-22)—moves up due to catcher shortage/bonus, plus the fact that his opportunities were incredibly constrained by integration era “stuff,” Yogi Berra, Casey Stengel etc., a Jackie Robinson type of talent.

13. Ed Williamson (11-13-17, PHoM 1924)—the more I look at the other candidates, the more flaws I see; the more I look at Ed, the more complete of a resume he has.

14. Dizzy Dean (23-23-26)—moves up, I had emphasized ERA+ a little too much, everything else points to Diz as a great one.

15. Larry Doyle (5-5-6, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Edd Roush.

Drops Out

16. Orlando Cepeda (13-9-12, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard, Cravath and (now) Tony Perez.
17. Reggie Smith (10-11-14, PHoM 1988)—still underrated.
21. Gavvy Cravath (14-14-15)—in that Cepeda, Howard, Perez group.

Close—i.e. right around in/out line, as I think we will elect another dozen backloggers before we’re done

18. Tony Perez (new)—slots right into the Cepeda, Cravath, F. Howard group whose value is mostly hitting, though Doggie obviously has the most defensive value of the four.

19. Thurman Munson (26-26-38)—continues moving up, comparable to Elston Howard in every way.

20. Don Newcombe (22-21-18)—lost more opportunity (to military, integration-era “stuff”) than just about anybody.

21. Cravath
22. Phil Rizzuto (17-17-13)
(22a. Ken Boyer [22b-22-29])
23. Dick Lundy (28-27-19)
24. Chuck Klein (24-24-40)
25. Bucky Walters (20-19-25)
26. Dick Redding (25-25-21, PHoM 1971)


27. Frank Howard (19-18-16)
28. Eddie Cicotte (29-28-24)
(28a. Jim Bunning [37a-36a-34a])
(28b. Joe Sewell [21a-20a-19a])
29. Tommy Leach (48-47-54)
30. Charley Jones (16-16-10, PHoM 1921)
(30a. Willie Keeler [22a-21a-22a])
   54. DL from MN Posted: January 17, 2007 at 06:20 PM (#2281873)
Are the misspellings in the header intentional? If so, they're not as funny as my Nick Esasky joke.
   55. Qufini Posted: January 17, 2007 at 06:46 PM (#2281889)
1. Pete Rose, OF/1B/2B/3B (n/a). There's still a bit of griping about the one-year boycott. Personally, I think it's a good thing to have it as an option. It gives voters a chance to express certain objections and reservations without resorting to a lifelong ban. I like having that middle option, somewhere in between saying "this person is out forever" and "what this person did doesn't matter." It didn't have to be a one-year boycott. It could have been two or five, or some other number. But it's nice to have. And I disagree with the objection that Niekro (or Jackson or Carlton) is being punished because of the Rose boycott. Niekro is no more being punished than Fergie Jenkins in 1989 or Eddie Collins in 1934.

As to Rose's candicacy: Not as good a peak as Carlton or Jackson but he beats out both of them for prime, the length of which lands him at the top of the career pile as well. In this case, two out of three is good enough for first.

2. Steve Carlton, P (n/e). Carlton is closer to Seaver than Niekro is to Carlton, in my opinion.

3. Reggie Jackson, OF (n/e). 1702 runs batted in. .490 career slugging percentage. Great cumulative and rate stats, with a lengthy prime and a peak to go along with it. Would be a deserving number one in many years.

4. Phil Niekro, P (n/e). Several strong peak years in the '70s and healthy career totals. Wasn't as effective for as long a period as Jackson or Carlton which is why he trails them on this ballot but if we don't elect Niekro this year, I'll have him first next time around.

5. Nellie Fox, 2B (3). Still the best second baseman on the ballot.

6. Quincy Trouppe, C (4). Still the best catcher on the ballot.

7. Dick Redding, P (2). My ballot was getting a little top-heavy with pitchers so Redding slides down a bit. He's still more than worthy to be in the Hall of Merit, though.

8. Lou Brock, LF (5). One of the best career candidates on the ballot. Maybe overrated by the public at large (especially fans in Chicago and St. Louis) but underrated by this electorate.

9. Alejandro Oms, CF (6). A great centerfielder who was an effective player for more than the ten years that he spent in the States.

10. Burleigh Grimes, P (7). Doesn't measure up to the new guys, but he has the second-best career of any returning candidate at pitcher plus the peak that Mickey Welch is missing.

11. Hugh Duffy, CF (8). Next in line to go into my Personal Hall of Merit. There's a lot more to his candidacy than his 1894 season though the Triple Crown doesn't hurt.

12. Don Newcombe, P (9). A deserving candidate whose peak is obscured by military service and whose full career value is obscured by integration.

13. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (10). I consider Cepeda to be the best candidate at first base as he's the only one who does well in both peak and prime while his cohorts all seem to be missing one or the other.

14. Luis Aparicio, SS (11). The best shortstop of his generation and the best shortstop available.

15. Rollie Fingers, RP (12). I think he belongs in the Hall of Merit but it's hard to put him ahead of more well-rounded candidates like Duffy and Cepeda.

necessary disclosures:
Pete Browning was on my ballot last year but got bumped off by the strong crop of new candidates.
Neither Jimmy Wynn nor Charlie Keller were good enough for long enough to make my ballot.
Edd Roush is sitting at fourth among centerfielders behind Oms, Duffy and Browning. I plan to do a better head-to-head comparison between Browning and Roush to be sure that I have the right one on the ballot before the backlog starts to creep back up.

new candidates:
Ron Cey doesn't stand out as much as third basemen from earlier eras like Traynor, Elliott, Leach and Kell. He's fifth for his position in my rankings.
Steve Garvey also sits at fifth for his position, trailing Cepeda, Beckley, Taylor and Perez.
   56. Qufini Posted: January 17, 2007 at 06:48 PM (#2281891)
16. OCF Posted: January 15, 2007 at 04:00 PM (#2280777)
There are 24 possible relative orders among the top 4 candidates. Within the first 8 votes, we've had 5 of those orders already. I assume there will be more variants.

I'm curious. How many variations are we up to now?
   57. Juan V Posted: January 17, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2281897)
1993 ballot. It seems like it was in the making forever...

1) PETE ROSE: My system suffers with multipositional players like him. Given that he spent his peak in some of the most demanding positions he played, I think he has enough to top this strong group.

2) STEVE CARLTON: Not quite Seaver, but he's the second best pitcher I've looked at as a voter.

3) REGGIE JACKSON: With good defense, he might´ve made #1

4) PHIL NIEKRO: Unearned runs make him draw the short straw in my ballot. No shame in being #4 here, and if he's still available next year, he'll be #1

5) QUINCY TROUPPE: Hopefully on the track to election now. What we know about him is good.

6) ALEJANDRO OMS: Great career, nice peak too.

7) GAVVY CRAVATH: There's still room for outfielders that hit like him. A few more years and he'd be Reggie.

8) JIMMY RYAN: My choice among the backlog 1890s outfielders.

9) JIMMY WYNN: How similar can a 1890s player and a 1960s player be? The Jimmies have similar scores in my spreadsheet. Wynn's prime is, IMO, good enough to look past what's outside it.

10) TONY LAZZERI: My choice among the overlooked early 20th Century second basemen.

11) RON CEY: I've downgraded him from his placement in my prelim, since he probably wasn't as good on defense as WARP makes him out to be. I believe Boyer is a good comp, and he places a few steps below where Boyer used to rank on my ballots.

12) BOB JOHNSON: Minor league credit cancels out war demerit. The result is an outfielder just above the borderline.

13) LUIS TIANT: My new RA+ system shows him well, at least compared to ERA+, so he rises a few notches

14) CHARLEY JONES: One of the trickiest players to evaluate, but if you give him blacklist credit, he´s a good one.

15) ROLLIE FINGERS: The strong class almost bounces him off my ballot. Like most players in this area, he won't make the HOM noticeably better, or worse.

Off-ballot. Within each group, players are listed alphabetically:

16-24: Jake Beckley, Roger Bresnahan, Jim Fregosi, Charlie Keller, Tony Perez, Cannonball Dick Redding, Edd Roush, Ken Singleton, Gene Tenace
25-31: Pete Browning, Larry Doyle, Bob Elliott, Chuck Klein, Johnny Pesky, Rusty Staub, Pie Traynor
32-40: Bobby Bonds, Bus Clarkson, Nellie Fox, Lefty Gomez, Frank Howard, Ernie Lombardi, George Scales, Reggie Smith, George Van Halten
41-46: Dave Bancroft, Sal Bando, Orlando Cepeda, Dizzy Dean, Hugh Duffy, Marvin Williams
47-54: Lou Brock, Norm Cash, Cesar Cedeño, Jim Kaat, Davey Lopes, Thurman Munson, Ned Williamson, Artie Wilson
55-61: Dick Bartell, Burleigh Grimes, Toby Harrah, Bobby Murcer, Darrell Porter, Bucky Walters, Wilbur Wood


Charlie Keller: He keeps getting close to my ballot, but with a strong class this year, he had little chance of getting in it. Short career keeps him below Johnson and Jones

Edd Roush: I noticed an error on his numbers regarding WWI seasons (I wasn't adjusting them), and corrected it. After this, he gains positions and he may be on my '94 vote.

Pete Browning: The loser of the Roush adjustment, since there's so many people in his position that I would take ahead of him, that I couldn't keep him in my first off-ballot group. I see how he mashed, but he did little else.

Nellie Fox: Bizarro Browning, although he did have a decent OBP.


Davey Lopes: Nellie Fox-lite, and I don't particularily like Fox.

Darrell Porter: HoVG, although he doesn't look bad near the bottom of my consideration set.
   58. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 17, 2007 at 07:51 PM (#2281933)
And I disagree with the objection that Niekro (or Jackson or Carlton) is being punished because of the Rose boycott. Niekro is no more being punished than Fergie Jenkins in 1989 or Eddie Collins in 1934.

If we had had scheduled 4 inductees to be honored this year instead of 3 by utilizing a crystal ball, that would have ended that objection.
   59. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 17, 2007 at 08:00 PM (#2281940)
As for Rose, the commentary on Rose hasn't been as virulent as on McGwire, and I don't get that.

I have problems with McGwire, but I can't see a broken record in the same category as gambling. PEDs haven't stopped me from watching baseball, but fixing games would.
   60. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 17, 2007 at 08:04 PM (#2281942)
A vile human being

There are a few comments to this effect regarding Rose in earlier threads too. Real hatred from some voters. I just don't get it. He is self-centred. He is a cheater. He lacks self-awareness and self-evaluation. He didn't kill or rape anyone that we know of. He's just a jerk -- a guy you might not want to be friends or even acquaintances with. But a vile human being?

Yeah, that's a little too strong for me. O.J. Simpson? Okay (though I would have never said that 30 years ago). But Rose is not close to that category.
   61. AJMcCringleberry Posted: January 17, 2007 at 08:07 PM (#2281945)
11. Tommy Bond (12-12-20, PHoM 1929)—great peak, had to bring him back.11. Dizzy Dean (23-23-26)—moves up, I had emphasized ERA+ a little too much, everything else points to Diz as a great one.

So who's 11? Bond or Dean?
   62. NeverJustAGame Posted: January 17, 2007 at 08:21 PM (#2281956)
Sample 1993 Ballot from NeverJustAGame:

1.Steve Carlton - "Lefty" set the standard as the "zen master" of starting pitchers with the Phillies in the 1970's and carried over into the early 1980's.His career year of 1972 has to be one of the top 10 pitching seasons post 1900.300+ game winner, 4000+ strikeouts, 5000+ innings pitched.Carlton was a workhorse and the backbone of 1980 World Champion Phillies.

2.Pete Rose - "Charlie Hustle" The All-Time Hit King with 4256.He was Mr Red shaking up the Reds in the mid 1960's with his position utility and a strong on base threat for the Big Red Machine World Champion teams of the middle 1970's.....Rose was a strong supporting cast member of the 1980 World Champ Phillies.

3.Reggie Jackson - "Mr October" A pretty good all around player early in his career that became the star slugger for the early 1970's Oakland Athletics teams.After 1976 became one of the first sluggers for hire.He thrived on the New York media and made himself a household name with his playoff and World Series slugging.Slowed with the Angels but still had a little pop left in his bat.500+ homeruns 1700 rbi's make him an above average Hall member.Also his candy bar was pretty good:)

4.Phil Niekro - "Knucksie" An above average pitcher on below average teams for most of his career.A Braves great with 300+ wins that deserves strong consideration since some of his better years were very strong even with low run support from the late 1970's early 1980's Atlanta Braves.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The above four players in my mind represent some of the best ever at their position but also some of the greatest ever for their franchise.


5.Hugh Duffy - One of the greatest peaks ever in baseball.1890's player that represents his time in baseball as a top tier star.1894 triple crown year was amazing by any standard.

6.Dizzy Dean - Fantastic peak for the 1930's St Louis Cards version of Sandy Koufax....Short but oh so sweet career.Backbone of several of the great Gashouse Gang teams.A big mouth that backed it up.

7.Lou Brock - Overrated yes but still a good hitter that played the stolen base game 100% full force.Probably the weakest of the 3000+ career hitters but did reach the milestone.Was an amazing Playoff and World Series performer.Deserving of enshrinement.

8.Dick Redding - "Cannonball" was one of the top Negro League pitchers for his career.I know many stats are not present but most historians consider him a top 5 or 6 starters in the history of the leagues and thats good enough for me to vote for him.

9.Addie Joss - A very short career but when counting his minor league play is a sure fire top starter from the early 1900's.....That era and whip are amazing for any time period of baseball.Thumbs up for his cause from me.

10.Pete Browning - Superstar of the 1880's and 90's...Had several huge seasons and a above average career.

11.Edd Roush - .300 career hitter over a 18 year career.Was a Reds fan favorite.Roush was an all around above average player for much of his career.A two time batting champion.

12.Larry Doyle - A very good player in his prime and for his postion.Was the team captian on several New York Giants winners.A very overlooked player from a great franchise.

13.Gavvy Cravath - Homerun champion before the long ball became the offensive force it has become.Would have been a top tier player if his career had been 10 years later......He was the Ralph Kiner of his time.

14.Nellie Fox - A great player that Connie Mack let get away.Was a keystone for the Chicago White Sox teams of the 1950's and early 1960's.His one MVP award was deserved.

15.Luis Aparico - Combined with Nellie Fox proved to be a keystone combo of defense.Was a very fast player for his era and lasted a long time.
   63. sunnyday2 Posted: January 17, 2007 at 08:34 PM (#2281962)
>11. Tommy Bond (12-12-20, PHoM 1929)—great peak, had to bring him back.11. Dizzy Dean (23-23-26)—moves up, I had emphasized ERA+ a little too much, everything else points to Diz as a great one.

>>So who's 11? Bond or Dean?

Correction to #53: Oops, a little cut and paste issue. Dean is #14:

11. Tommy Bond (12-12-20, PHoM 1929)—great peak, had to bring him back.

12. Elston Howard (15-15-22)—moves up due to catcher shortage/bonus, plus the fact that his opportunities were incredibly constrained by integration era “stuff,” Yogi Berra, Casey Stengel etc., a Jackie Robinson type of talent.

13. Ed Williamson (11-13-17, PHoM 1924)—the more I look at the other candidates, the more flaws I see; the more I look at Ed, the more complete of a resume he has.

14. Dizzy Dean (23-23-26)—moves up, I had emphasized ERA+ a little too much, everything else points to Diz as a great one.

15. Larry Doyle (5-5-6, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Edd Roush.
   64. sunnyday2 Posted: January 17, 2007 at 08:39 PM (#2281964)
Oh, and Jim Wynn is #52 and Quincey Trouppe #54.

Never, you need to tell us about any top 10 returnees not on your ballot, just anything to show that you've considered them. I just publish their ranking, most people make some kind of narrative comment. In your case I think that means Jimmy Wynn, Charlie Keller, Quincey Trouppe, Rollie Fingers.
   65. rico vanian Posted: January 17, 2007 at 08:46 PM (#2281970)

1) Pete Rose
- Wasn’t a member of the KKK. Never was proven to throw games. Pretty good hitter. Showed adequate effort on the field.
2) Reggie Jackson – Mr. October.
3) Steve Carlton – Interesting that my top 3 all had some alleged character issues at points.
4) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
5) Phil Niekro – Over 100 wins from 40 years old on.
6) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
7) Burleigh Grimes –5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
8) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
9) Luis Aparicio –nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
10) Rollie Fingers – The first of the great modern relievers.
11) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
12) Ernie Lombardi – 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
13) Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
14) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
15) Gavvy Cravath - The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.

No soup for…
16) Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
17) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits.
18) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
19) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
20) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
21) Edd Roush – I like Rice better, but I am coming around on Roush.
22) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
23) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
24) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
25) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
26) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
27) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
28) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
29) Jim Kaat- I am comfortable with him in this position. Career length enabled him to put up some interesting numbers, but I don’t think he’s good enough for the HOM (or the HOF for that matter).
30) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
31) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
32) Vida Blue – What might have been…
33) Ron Cey - Probably overshadowed (and deservedly so) by Schmidt.
34) Reggie Smith &
35) Jimmy Wynn- The Hall of very good beckons
36) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
37) Cecil Cooper – He had a hechuva peak. As a Yankees fan, I absolutely hated seeing him come up. As scary to ay Yankees fan in the early 80’s as David Ortiz is now.
38) Quincy Trouppe- Not sold on him. Certainly isn't one of the top ten catchers (up to 1992)
   66. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 17, 2007 at 08:47 PM (#2281972)
Never, you need to tell us about any top 10 returnees not on your ballot, just anything to show that you've considered them. I just publish their ranking, most people make some kind of narrative comment. In your case I think that means Jimmy Wynn, Charlie Keller, Quincey Trouppe, Rollie Fingers.

Other than that, NeverJustaGame's ballot looks good. If he wants to go with it as is, we can make his sample ballot his actual one.
   67. rawagman Posted: January 17, 2007 at 08:47 PM (#2281973)
NeverJustAGame: The ballot looks fine, on its own. I have to ask you, however, to please explain your methodology in brief, and to give short reasonings and/r respective positins for the players in the last votes consensus top 10 - Fingers, Keller, Wynn. Maybe a Beckley. Mind you, I don't personally vote for any of hose, but they make me explain why each and every time!
Love the support for Duffy and Cravath!
   68. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 17, 2007 at 09:29 PM (#2281993)
I know that this isn't a rule but I think that a new voter should have to give some sort of explanation about the non ballot guys. He will be asked anyways. And if we aren't going to enforce that then, what are you thoughts on Charlie Keller? Are you giving war credit? MiL credit? I think he has a bigger peak than Duffy whose peak you like.
   69. DavidFoss Posted: January 17, 2007 at 09:30 PM (#2281994)
Yeah, sample ballots in the ballot thread are pretty confusing. Note to the next new voter to put the preliminary ballot in the discussion thread.

But, if we make NeverJustaGame's ballot the official one, then the confusion is removed. :-)
   70. Sean Gilman Posted: January 17, 2007 at 09:35 PM (#2281998)
Vile: morally despicable or abhorrent

Vile: morally low; base; despicable

Vile: morally reprehensible; (informal) thoroughly unpleasant

I stand by my choice of adjective. Pete Rose isn't Charles Manson, or even OJ Simpson, but he's still despicable, reprehensible, morally low and thoroughly unpleasant.
   71. OCF Posted: January 17, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2282005)
5.Hugh Duffy - One of the greatest peaks ever in baseball.1890's player that represents his time in baseball as a top tier star.1894 triple crown year was amazing by any standard.

I'm not disputing that Duffy had an MVP-quality year in 1894, but let's not lose sight of the context. That's a seven-and-a-half run a game league, and a hitters park that pushes the context up near 8 runs a game. In my system (based on RCAA but with the value of a run adjusted for win value), I have Duffy's 1894 as a 69 on that scale (the units are a bit arbitrary, but are intended to be comparable between different years). I've got Joe Kelley's 1896 as a 69, and Willie Keeler's 1897 as a 73 - just as good. I've got Jimmy Sheckard's 1901 as a 67 and John McGraw's 1899 as a 72. And dwarfing them all: George Stone's 1906, which is a 92. I never ran Ed Delehanty or Jesse Burkett through this system - they were elected before I adopted it - but they must have some even bigger years. And let's not even talk about where your typical Honus Wagner or Ty Cobb year lands on this scale.

Now, these examples don't prove that Duffy shouldn't be a candidate - Kelley, Keeler, and Sheckard are elected, and McGraw has playing time issues, and Stone has an ultra-short career. But I don't see Duffy's 1894 as some kind of untouchable year for the ages - just as an ordinary MVP-type year for someone at a "bat" position.

And as for "1890's player that represents his time in baseball as a top tier star.": If he were "top tier" he'd have been elected long ago. The true top tier is Delehanty, Burkett, and Billy Hamilton. The second tier is Kelley and Keeler. The third rung on the ladder is Duffy, Van Haltren, and Ryan: too good to dismiss, not quite good enough to elect.
   72. NeverJustAGame Posted: January 17, 2007 at 09:57 PM (#2282010)
I will put some more thought into the project just look as my ballot as unoffical and sample of learning the ropes.....
   73. OCF Posted: January 17, 2007 at 10:08 PM (#2282021)
I'm not even saying there's anything wrong about having Duffy at #5 (I have Van Haltren ahead of Duffy myself, but that's all arguable). Putting him there is defensible - I'm just poking at your defense of it to see if you can sharpen it. Also, my last phrase in #71 should read "... not quite good enough to elect yet."

Chris F. (#56) - I'll be busy the rest of today, but I'll try to give you a count tomorrow some time. I do know that we haven't yet seen any Neikro #1 votes, which restricts us to some subset of the 18 permutations without Neikro on top.
   74. Qufini Posted: January 18, 2007 at 12:05 AM (#2282126)
Thanks, OCF. I look forward to it.
   75. jimd Posted: January 18, 2007 at 03:11 AM (#2282263)
Welcome NeverJustAGame. Always be ready to defend your ballot choices. For most of those guys, we've heard the arguments before, pro and con, but sometimes somebody brings something new to the discussion. Also, you didn't give any hints about your evaluation methods, so people will be examining your ballot based on common voting patterns (if Duffy, then why not Keller; if Brock, then why not Beckley; if Dean and Joss then why not Walters, etc.) It's usually just to make sure that you've looked at the "important" candidates.

Most of all, enjoy the give and take. It's never personal, and it's a lot of fun.
   76. AJMcCringleberry Posted: January 18, 2007 at 05:38 AM (#2282339)
1. Pete Rose - Can't ignore the longevity.

2. Steve Carlton
3. Phil Niekro

These two are very close. Carlton had a slighly better RA+ and Niekro never had a year like Carlton's '72 (or '80).

4. Reggie Jackson - Pretty good ballot when a guy with a 139 OPS+ over 21 seasons is 4th.

5. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

6. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

7. Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitting catcher who had a long career.

8. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

9. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

10. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

11. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

12. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

13. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

14. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

15. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

16. Ken Singleton
17. Bobby Bonds
18. Ceasar Cedeno
19. Vada Pinson
20. Norm Cash
21. Hugh Duffy
22. Edd Roush
23. Bob Elliott
24. Ron Cey
25. Tommy Leach
26. Harry Hooper
27. Luis Tiant
28. George Van Haltren
29. Alejandro Oms
30. Buzz Arlett
31. Orlando Cepeda
32. Gil Hodges
33. Burleigh Grimes
34. Reggie Smith
35. Willie Davis
36. Fielder Jones
37. Dick Redding
38. Pie Traynor
39. Jim Kaat
40. George Foster
41. Pete Browning
42. Wally Berger
43. Vern Stephens
44. Dick Bartell
45. Lou Brock

Keller - Great peak, but not enough career value.

Fingers - I'm not sure about him, I'd like for a relief pitcher to have more than a couple of dominant seasons.
   77. yest Posted: January 18, 2007 at 07:59 AM (#2282373)
For some strange reason I was tempted to vote this year
1. Hal Chase
2. Eddie Cicote
3. Pete Rose

but I decided to continue the boycott (I would have posted what would have been my ballot but I didn't want to put a voteless (notice I didn't say useless) ballot to make tabulating the ballots harder)

just for the record Carlton, Jackson, and Niekro made my persanol HoF this year in that order

though if **** **** does make it this year with Jackson and Carlton it would have been hard to find many HoMers more fit to be inducted with
   78. OCF Posted: January 18, 2007 at 04:08 PM (#2282515)
Through the first 24 ballots: all 6 of the possible permutations of Carlton/Jackson/Rose have occurred. Splice Niekro into that and we've had 13 of the 24 possible permutations of the top 4.
   79. Jim Sp Posted: January 18, 2007 at 06:43 PM (#2282642)
Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much. Not in my top 100.
Roush – #71 with no extra credit. I suppose if I gave him every conceivable credit for holding out he’d make it, but I’m not there yet.

Rose, Carlton, Jackson, Niekro all obvious inductees. Too bad for Niekro, I’d love to put him #1 most years.

Cey #12, Porter #52, Burleson #100. Garvey, Lopes, Smalley not in top 100 but good careers. Madlock, Cooper, and DeCinces memorable too. How the !@#$ did Matthews collect 257 Win Shares?

1) Rose--I’m not a boycotter in general, though he makes my skin crawl. As a player he’s got both career and peak. He’s a hitter who played a lot at premium defensive positions.
2) Carlton--I rate him behind Seaver and Gibson, ahead of Perry and Palmer.
3) Jackson --I rate him behind Kaline, ahead of Clemente.
4) Niekro--I rate him behind Carlton, Perry, and Palmer, but ahead of Roberts and Jenkins. Overwhelmingly qualified for the HoM.
5) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
6) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. A 94 OPS+ is strong for a grade A second baseman, compare Mazeroski at 84. 1957 and 1959 are great peak seasons (11.8 and 9.8 warp3). 1951-1960 is a high sustained prime. PHoM in 1970.
7) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
8) KellerThere’s no doubt he was one of the great hitters when healthy, 152 career OPS+ is #28 all time. An MVP type season every year from 1940-46 when not at war. That’s enough prime for me, even without longevity. PHoM 1985.
9) PerezInteresting, most people like his career, but wait a minute…he was playing third base from 1967-1971…there’s a peak there.
10) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
11) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
12) Cey I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch. I assume Cey and Elliott’s lack of support is a bad omen for Nettles, Buddy Bell, and Ventura.
13) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.
14) Jimmy Wynn--PHoM 1987. In 1965 had a MVP type season completely obscured by the Astrodome and era. Best years were not consecutive but impressive: 11.0, 10.3, 9.8, 9.5, 9.0, 8.1, 7.4 by warp3.
15) Munson--PHoM 1991. I like Munson more than Freehan because of the peak. 1970, 73 and 75-77 were big seasons for a catcher.
16) FingersERA+ not impressive, but by other measures better.
17) TrouppePHoM 1988.
   80. Paul Wendt Posted: January 18, 2007 at 10:40 PM (#2282770)
Adam S #10
10. Phil Niekro - the big suprise for me this year. I initially thought that I'd have him ranked right behind Carlton. He obviously didn't fare as well as I had hoped. Still top 10 for me isn't bad.

What's not to like?

Eric C #27
12. Sal Bando (11th) 35 pts: There’s evidence on all sides here. Some evidence suggests that Bando is obviously inferior to Boyer and maybe to Elliott. . . .
But there’s very strong evidence in Bando’s favor compared to those other guys. Namely that he, unlike they, was at some point arguably the best player in his league (early 70s),

How do you argue that Bando was the best player on his team in the early 1970s?
During the 1972 Series when Reggie was injured?

I totally overhauled my system, finally. I'm now 100% over to the Keltner-based system,

But Reggie 66 points gets the number one vote above Carlton 67 and Niekro 67?

Reggie wasn’t the best player of the 1970s, but he was reaaaaaaaaaaally good. His ten seasons with an OPS+ over 140, and fourteen seasons with an OPS+ of 130 or more, gives him the top spot.

The only other baseball player whose name I knew in the 1970s was Pete Rose.

I wonder, is Roberto Clemente now 1-2 or 2-1 with Hank Aaron?

Mark Donelson #38
2. Steve Carlton (pHOM 1993). I remember him as far more dominant—or consistently dominant, anyway—than he was [evidently not a Phillies a fan]; there are quite a few clunker years in there. I'd always thought of him as the NL's second-best pitcher after Seaver in his period (and the best once Seaver started to decline), which does not seem to have been the case, at least not clearly.

In 1980-83, the 1980s, age 35-38, he put together four seasons with ERA+ at least 115, his career average. In 15 previous seasons (counting the tidbits at age 20-21) he never topped two. He became the poster boy for playing beyond his time, but few pitchers have aged better.

(Earl Averill)

Sean G, it's time to get with it and put Earl Averill in the PHOM. If Mark sunny can do it, you can too.

Mark sunnyday
That's my point. They loved Mac and look where they've gone. They already hated Bonds. That's why I think they've dumped their feelings about Bonds on to Mac. IOW Bonds killed McGwire.

The irony to me is not only the sportwriters but also the All-American man on the street who so routinely makes contemptuous remarks about the US Congress but evidently takes offense at McGwire refusal to comply with the Committee on Reform in Government --his virtually taking the 5th.
   81. Mark Donelson Posted: January 18, 2007 at 11:29 PM (#2282790)
evidently not a Phillies a fan

You are correct, sir! In fact, I was an AL-team fan (Yankees, as I remain), so my view of Carlton was of the hazy other-league variety still possible in those pre-SportsCenter, pre-Internet, pre-interleague-play days. You know, the days when the All-Star Game may not have Counted, but it did actually feel kind of exciting.

My being 15 years old or younger for his entire career, pretty much, may also have had something to do with it, of course...
   82. jhwinfrey Posted: January 19, 2007 at 01:38 AM (#2282858)
Here's my 1993 ballot:

I apologize for the brevity--I'm still working on getting internet access at my new home. Yep, it's wayyy out in the boonies. I'm hoping to get that resolved soon, as the '94 election should be a dandy.
Carlton, Niekro, and Jackson are easy choices for my Personal Hall of Merit this year.

1. Steve Carlton: Best peak of the top 4 candidates. Simply a great pitcher, even if he wasn't terrific. (1993)
2. Phil Niekro: Stuck around for a long time, which gets big points in my system. He must have been doing something right. (1993)
3. Reggie Jackson: A long, productive career for the type of hitter he was. Lots of strikeouts, but lots of dingers, too. (1993)
4. Pete Rose (1993)
5. Burleigh Grimes: My favorite backlog candidate. Ol' Stubblebeard had longevity and dominance, and he's been overlooked for too long. (1940)
6. Orlando Cepeda: A great hitter--I think the electorate is undervaluing first basemen overall. I'm for electing the best hitters, not necessarily a balanced lineup. (1985)
7. Jake Beckley: See Cepeda, Orlando. (1927)
8. Charley Jones: A great peak that made up for a short career. If I'm voting for him, I don't see why the peak voters aren't. (1958)
9. Dick Redding: Best unelected Negro Leaguer, and I don't think we should be done electing players from the Negro Leagues. (1961)
10. Edd Roush: A very balanced career, and his numbers are impossible for me to overlook. (1962)
11. Quincy Trouppe: Best unelected catcher, and one of the better hitters still waiting to get in. (1964)
12. Steve Garvey: see Cepeda, Orlando.
13. Pete Browning: see Jones, Charley. (1967)
14. Alejandro Oms: Clearly a great player, I'm hoping he appears on more ballots soon. (1991)
15. Nellie Fox: A great fielder, and a solid player. Like Niekro, he must have been doing something right to hang around so long. (1971)

Sirs Not Appearing on my Ballot:
Jimmy Wynn: Not great enough for long enough, but he's close.
Charlie Keller: Not great enough for long enough, and he's not really close.
   83. Adam Schafer Posted: January 19, 2007 at 01:42 AM (#2282861)
Adam S #10
10. Phil Niekro - the big suprise for me this year. I initially thought that I'd have him ranked right behind Carlton. He obviously didn't fare as well as I had hoped. Still top 10 for me isn't bad.

I should've explained that ranking better, so let me clarify. There is a HUGE gap between Niekro at #10 and everyone below him. Despite the #10 ranking, he's much closer to being #5 on my ballot than he is to being #11. For my particular taste, I could easily juggle spots 7-10 around in any order and be happy with it as they are super close. As it is though, with those spots being as close as they are and Niekro being new, I chose to be conservative with his debut on my ballot.
   84. Sean Gilman Posted: January 19, 2007 at 09:08 AM (#2282956)
(Earl Averill)

Sean G, it's time to get with it and put Earl Averill in the PHOM. If Mark sunny can do it, you can too.

Oh, he will soon. He's next up after Bobby Grich.

I'm just amazed Sam Thompson made it in.
   85. TomH Posted: January 19, 2007 at 03:55 PM (#2283045)

I miss Gadfly. As I much as I disagreed with him, it would somehow be a good thing to see Luke Easter and Gavvy Cravath mixed in with Reggie and Pete Rose on the top of a ballot, especialy a well-defended ballot. Because I cannot say for certain that my perspective is correct. We argue passionately, but even as I trash JoeD's vote for Joe Quinn, I'm glad he makes his points. We've collectively been down on Lou Brock and Pie Traynor, but they both have their supporters. Am I'm glad you all put up with my perceived-as-quixotic defense of Frank Chance. Without rolling your eyes. Too much.

Fifty-ish voters makes for a fine group.
   86. sunnyday2 Posted: January 19, 2007 at 04:00 PM (#2283048)
TomH, if you like Luke Easter, you'll love Bobby Estalella!
   87. Thane of Bagarth Posted: January 19, 2007 at 04:18 PM (#2283060)
1993 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election. Unless I get an unforeseen wealth of free time to update my spreadsheet, I am going to continue to vote based on the data I have currently collected.

1) Pete Rose
#20 among position players who’ve been eligible thus far. He doesn’t rank first merely due to his never-ending career, although that doesn’t hurt: 51.2 in his top 5 WARP3 seasons and 160 in his top 5 consecutive WS seasons.

2) Phil Niekro
3) Steve Carlton
Only a razor-thin gap between these two guys. Niekro’s peak was surprisingly close to Carlton’s—in fact, it was close enough that Knucksie’s slight career value edge puts him on top.

4) Reggie Jackson
I have him sandwiched between Paul Waner and Sam Crawford in my all-time rankings. I was surprised he didn’t end up a little closer to the top pitchers on this ballot, but maybe that’s because his reputation for greatness is a little inflated by post-season theatrics. He gets a teeny-tiny holdout bonus for the month or so he missed for the O’s in 1976.

5) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got a little more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

6) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super (albeit better than Beckley), but 102.7 career is respectable.

7) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

8) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

9) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

10) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

11) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

12) Quincy Trouppe
With Bench elected, he’s my pick for best available among those who primarily played catcher, Black or White. Credit based on estimate of him playing 75% of his games at C.

13) Ken Singleton
Funny how a guy who conjures up such a divergent image of a “type” of player when compared to Bobby Bonds can put up such similar overall career and peak value—both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3.

14) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

15) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Bill Monroe—Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.
17) Jimmy Ryan—As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part 1).
18) Gavy Cravath—A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.
19) Dizzy Trout
20) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
21) Sam Rice
22) Nellie Fox—I don’t see a huge difference between Fox and Bill Monroe. He could easily make my ballot in future elections.
23) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back.
24) Tommy Leach
25) Rabbit Maranville
26) Norm Cash
27) Jim Kaat
28) Reggie Smith
29) Buzz Arlett
30) Jim Wynn—Decent career and peak numbers, he comes out as something of a ‘tweener in my system. The Toy Cannon is not all that far behind OFs ranked higher, in absolute terms, it’s just a tight ballot.
31) Charlie Keller—1 and 2/3 years of WWII credit. Even with his peak and the war credit, it’s just not enough combined to get him on my ballot.
32) Burleigh Grimes
33) Jack Quinn
34) Edd Roush—Bonus hold-out credit moves him up a bit, but not all that close to the ballot.
35) Bob Elliot
36) Harry Hooper
37) Ron Cey—Add yet another player to the HoVG.
38) Vada Pinson
39) Phil Rizzuto
40) Alejandro Oms
41) Hugh Duffy
42) Orlando Cepeda
43) Cesar Cedeno
44) Bus Clarkson
45) Lou Brock
46) Vern Stephens
47) Dom DiMaggio
48) George Foster
49) Spot Poles
50) Gil Hodges

Notable Newcomers:
101) Steve Garvey
128) Darrell Porter
147) Davey Lopes

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him somewhere just over #100, in Hack Wilson territory.
Rollie Fingers—Out of my top 100. I may be underrating relievers as a whole, but I modified my rankings to help closers/firemen when I originally had Wilhelm well below most other voters. Those adjustments help Rollie, but currently I can’t see adjusting them more to bring him closer to my ballot. I like Goose Gossage a lot more.
   88. Paul Wendt Posted: January 19, 2007 at 04:23 PM (#2283066)
Had I voted, Gavy Cravath would have garnered two "number ones" in a few elections. As you say, I'm not sure that would be right.

If John McGraw and Frank Chance, why not Roger Bresnahan?
Great player at fielding position "underrepresented" for his epoch, who did not long play fulltime.
   89. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 19, 2007 at 06:03 PM (#2283128)
TomH, if you like Luke Easter, you'll love Bobby Estalella!

But for my money, Easter is the biggest tease out there because he's documented enough to be observable, but his age 20-26/27 years are the missing ones....
   90. TomH Posted: January 19, 2007 at 06:50 PM (#2283163)
Paul, Bresnahan is just off my ballot, as you might infer given my tendencies.

I don't love Easter; he could be anywhere from #5 to #100 on my ballot. I admit that he's a big mystery, probably the biggest we've had since the rip-roarin Dickey Pearce debates.
   91. sunnyday2 Posted: January 19, 2007 at 07:24 PM (#2283194)
Aside from the alliteration, Estalella is similar. 28 games at ages 24-25 (OPS+ 153 and 186). 82 games at age 28 (OPS+ 121). 4.5 years at ages 30-34 (OPS+ 123-142 in mostly CF but of course during WWII, must discount). Career OPS+ 127 in > 2500 PAs, no shortage of sample, just of context and continuity. Regress the early partials to the mean, inject an actual peak where it should have been, blah blah blah, he probably comes out around 130 across about 14-15 ML seasons.

Easter's career OPS+ is about the same, 126, though a lot more power (60 pts), a lot less OBA (30 pts), and for about 1900 PQAs, ages 34-39. Give him an actual peak and you're probably looking at more like 136 across 14-15 ML seasons.

But we have a vastly greater assurance that Estalella could really do it, because he really did, except that he was too dark to play continuously in the MLs except when all the white folk were off fighting the war. Yes, Easter is a mystery--I would say a bigger one than Pearce. We have more data for Pearce, we just don't know really what to make of it. For Easter before the mid-'40s we don't even have that.

Estalella is an open book compared to Pearce and Easter. Basically, Minnie Minoso, I'd say.
   92. TomH Posted: January 19, 2007 at 07:31 PM (#2283201)
It has been a while since one of you fine gentlemen ran a "who is the best friend" of each voter comparison. If it ain't too much trouble, could we get one of those from last election or this one after it closes? We have added some newbies since then, and it fascinated me to see how we divided into different "camps".
   93. Esteban Rivera Posted: January 19, 2007 at 07:46 PM (#2283218)
1993 Ballot:

1. Steve Carlton
2. Phil Niekro
3. Reggie Jackson
4. Pete Rose
I’ll sum up the positioning for the top four in this sentence: Reggie’s peak puts him ahead of Rose while Carlton edges out Niekro on the strength of his big years. The position players are edged out by the two pitchers.

5. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

6. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

7. Edd Roush – Appears to be an error of omission. With considerations for hold out credit.

8. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good.

9. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

10. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

11. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

12. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

14. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

15. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

16. Rollie Fingers – Given some post-season credit. His career taken all together is around the bubble.

17. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

18. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

19. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

20. Quincey Trouppe – All evidence points to him being a good to great hitter for his position and a solid if not good catcher. Works for me

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Jimmy Wynn – In my top 30.

Charlie Keller – Gets some credit but not enough to overcome the playing time issues to get him on my ballot.
   94. Carl G Posted: January 19, 2007 at 08:09 PM (#2283233)
Well, I'm back. Good year to get settled too, since nothing earth-shattering is likely to occur this election. 4 Shoo-ins and 3 spots for them.

The Shoo-ins
1) Reggie Jackson- Gotta go with Reggie here. Strong peak and career numbers
2) Pete Rose- Love him as a player. Hate him as a human being.
3) Phil Niekro- Have Knucksie and Carlton virtually deadlocked. Less poor seasons made me go with Niekro.
4) Steve Carlton- Sure-fire HoM, but is the odd man out for this year in my book; not by much though.

Guys I believe should eventually make it
5)Quincy Trouppe- Best Catcher available right now, though I like Simmons alot next year.
6)Jimmy Wynn- Good strong peak masked by his park and era. In the running for most underrated ever.
7)Rollie Fingers- One of the finest relievers in the game for quite awhile. It should be disclosed that I was 6 yrs old in Milwaukee in 1981 and Fingers was my favorite player his whole tenure with the Brewers.
8)Charlie Keller- King Kong was great when he was in the lineup
9)Nellie Fox- Good Fielder and good OBP guy. Had some good offensive seasons for a 2B

10)Edd Roush- Strong peak an career for a good CF. My gut still says 'in'
11)Roger Bresnahan- I've always been a Bresnahan fan. Solid versatile player.
12)Bob Johnson- Love that peak. Needed more career to get a higher rank
13)Pete Browning- Still Love the Louisville Slugger's case.
14)Ron Cey- Strongest pure 3B until Schmidt and Brett come along.
15)Cannonball Dick Redding- Best of the rest pitcher wise and I'm short on pitchers in my rankings right now.

Close-Bando, Cepeda, Garvey, Beckley,Van Haltren, Klein, Dean, Cravath, Duffy, Walters, and Tiant.
   95. Al Peterson Posted: January 19, 2007 at 08:31 PM (#2283244)
1993 ballot. Chock full of worthy folks to get into the club. The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything: WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Pete Rose (2). A peak is there, career was ultra long, all-time hit leader, versatile in the field. Giving him is due and the best spot is this top heavy listing.

2. Reggie Jackson (-). Demerits for trying to kill the Queen of England. Bonus points for twisting himself into a pretzel during his swing and misses.

3. Steve Carlton (-). The 1972 season still astounds me with the great record on the lousy team. Pitched well late into his career, possibly due to that physical training program they would always cover when discussing Lefty.

4. Phil Niekro (-). Silly batters, feebly swatting at that knuckler. Underappreciated during his career since Atlanta was Siberia for a good portion of the time.

5. Dick Redding (4). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years.

6. Norm Cash (5).
Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things. You can’t throw away his peak year even though contradicts the rest of his work.

7. Tommy Leach (6). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

8. Bobby Bonds (7). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays and some people never got over it.

9. Tony Mullane (8). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

10. Reggie Smith (9). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup.

11. Roger Bresnahan (10). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

12. Bob Johnson (11). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

13. Bucky Walters (12). Crunched his value into a few seasons, combined solid pitching with a decent stick. Not too much of a ding for the war year discount.

14. Ron Cey (-). His consistency is probably what warrants this high of starting place. Was he Schmidt? No. Was he good? I’d say so.

15. Jimmy Wynn (13). I’ve felt he was close to Reggie Smith, this puts him back in that neighborhood. Peakish argument, was a three true outcome player.

16-20: Oms, Welch, Mays, Poles, Keller
21-25: Fingers, Perez, Byrd, Beckley, C Jones
26-30: Willis, Easter, Shocker, Bancroft, Munson
31-35: Browning, Tiant, Ryan, Luque, Rizzuto
36-40: Joss, Schang, Bridges, Tenace, Bartell
41-45: Cedeno, Trouppe, Cross, Elliott, Duffy
46-50: Grimes, Ben Taylor, Cicotte, Stephens, Doyle

Top 10 Returnees: Fox (not top 50), Beckley(#24), Roush(not top 50), Browning (#31), Trouppe (#42), Keller (#20), Fingers (#21). Fox is just someone I don’t get. Maybe fills a positional/era gap but I don’t hold to that rigorous “we must have a player covering years X through Y”. Beckley – Very good and played a long time, a great season or two would have meant election by now. As it is he’s sniffing bottom of ballot. Roush is falling through the CF glut. Browning have received ballot spots in the past from me and might again. Slightly below Charley Jones among the old time OFs. Trouppe is neither my favorite catcher or NeL player so he is waiting below. Keller depending on the gap filling you do can be Elmer Flick or short of Earl Averill. I’m just not as willing to give those filler years the complete peak value needed to reach the ballot yet. Slightly overrated by the great teams he played on, at least from a WS perspective. Fingers is the best reliever available but not so valuable as long term starters. Overall, no qualms except maybe Fox and he did have the weak competition argument similar to Sewell.

New guys: Ballot 4 new guys. The rest just clutter my consideration group with actually Lopes being the next highest. Still a long way from seeing the light of day.
   96. Michael Bass Posted: January 19, 2007 at 10:19 PM (#2283330)
I use WARP3 as my primary tool, with mental adjustments to downgrade (not eliminate, but downgrade) the timeline. I prefer gloves with moderate bats to bats with terrible gloves; both Stargell and Killebrew are not in my PHOM, though they're in the queue. I'm peak-oriented, but my system is much more friendly to long career candidates than it once was, when those long careers stand out, or have an extended prime, if not an outstanding peaks.

PHOM this year is Niekro, Carlton, and Grich

1. Pete Rose (PHOM 1992) - Overrated by history of course due to the hits record, but he is probably around 50-60 on the alltime list. I stand by my claim of peakless, primarily because I can't think of one other player I'd put in my top 100 that had more % of his value in his pure career than Rose. What makes his case is his consistency, a ridiculous number of years where he churned out quality (though not standout) value. Farther ahead of Grich than I would have thought going in. Barely ahead of the two pitchers. Well ahead of Jackson.

2. Phil Niekro (PHOM 1993) - I think he has literally every single thing over Carlton except for "biggest single year". The thing is that Carlton's "biggest year" is so amazing that it draws many of his measures (pure peak value, 3 year peak) above Niekro's, thus making it close. Niekro did not have a 1972, but he was far more consistent than was Carlton, and played at a very high level for a very long time.

3. Steve Carlton (PHOM 1993) - You know, he's known as something of a flaky personality, but his career is flaky as well. His 3 best years are all separated by at least mediocre years. Despite his 1972, he was probably better in the back half of his career than the front half, which is to say he put up some non-superstar stuff to drag down the one big year. But what a big year; I don't think any season even approaches it in the 2nd half of the 20th century. 1-3 are all very close together in my view.

4. Reggie Jackson - And then there's Reggie who I believe is being vastly overrated by the group. Specifically by OPS+, which does not play any attention to his god-awful durability in-season. He's not even close to my top 3, is behind Grich on my PHOM queue, and is closer to Dunlap in value in my view than Rose. Not to say he wasn't a good player, he was. But he was not top half of the HOM, the 3 above him clearly are in my view.

5. Fred Dunlap (PHOM 1926) - I'm close to alone on this one. My case for him is simple, he was one of baseball's best players for 6 straight years. Win shares underrates him, just as it overrates pitchers from the era. Very good hitter, great fielder from an era when fielding meant more.

6. Bob Elliot (PHOM 1968) - Never understood the lack of love for him. I have always viewed him as very close, just short of Stan Hack. This time around, I liked Hack a lot, so Elliot slots in very highly, as we're real deep into the backlog at this point.

7. Bob Johnson (PHOM 1971) - Maybe the foremost all-prime career. Gets no minor league credit despite his late start (it was investigated at the time, he was just a late bloomer). Like Elliot takes a slight minus from his raw stats for the inflated 44-45 years when they were playing with a bunch of AA guys. Clockwork hitter for 12 of his 13 years.

8. Phil Rizzuto (PHOM 1972) - Scooter is the first pure glove man on my ballot; and outstanding shortstop with an average bat (MVP level the year he was more than an average bat). Add in 3 years of war credit (which came right in the middle of his best years), and you get him to this spot.

9. Quincy Trouppe (PHOM 1973) - All evidence points to a very strong bat for a catcher. He would have to be a horrible fielder to not make my ballot given what I believe of his bat, and there's no evidence he was horrible; probably a solid C.

10. Rabbit Maranville (PHOM 1976) - Rizzuto for an earlier generation. Longer career (gets nearly a year of war credit), doesn't have the one year peak of Rizzuto, and was a moderately worse hitter. But an amazing fielder forever. I'll be a big Ozzie supporter, and this guy was Ozzie-lite.

11. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1979) - Had a very nice peak just before the war, and some shoulder seasons before that and during the war.

12. Dick Redding (PHOM 1981) - Had a nice career length, and the numbers indicate a strong peak as well. Not long enough career or high enough peak to go higher than this, but enough of both to land here.

13. Urban Shocker (PHOM 1942) - Nice prime, nice 1920-1923 peak, all in the strong league at the time.

14. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1986) - Long career, wrong league, but some nice seasons along the way. He's in my view what Eppa Rixey (who I didn't like) was to most other people. Not overly enthused by him, or anyone else on this portion of the ballot (after Trouppe I'd say), but we're deep into the backlog, both for PHOM purposes and for my ballot.

15. Dave Bancroft (PHOM 1987) - Rizzuto-esque candidate. A little more consistent bat, not quite the glove, though still real good with it. Long career, plenty of prime.

16. Bill Monroe (PHOM 1930) - Largely forgotten 2B from the first documented days of the Negro Leagues, was a solid glove a pretty good bat for a long time. In retrospect, wish we'd centered on him, rather than Grant, about whom there was very little evidence and a whole lot of guesswork.
17. Thurman Munson (PHOM 1987) - Plenty of defense, plenty of hitting, durable.
18. Jake Beckley (PHOM 1931) - Yeah, I'll never hear the end of this one, but his career stands out for the era, even if he's still peakless.
19. Dizzy Dean (PHOM 1988) - I wonder how many ballots have Beckley and Dean side by side. Anyway, all peak, obviously.
20. Lave Cross (PHOM 1988) - Back to the career, plus a touch of catching credit (even when not catching, he played a tough position and played it well).

Other top 10 returnees

76. Pete Browning - Not in love, no fielding, career is short for an OF.
23. Nellie Fox - Basically Rizzuto, but at 2B rather than SS, and the difference hurts on a ballot this bunched up.
22. Jimmy Wynn - Nice hitter, career's a little short considering he's an outfielder, and his fielding is not a plus (or a minus, but he needs the help).
37. Charlie Keller - Missed some games at his peak which kept it from being high enough to overcome his very short career. Only 1.5 years of war credit.
NR. Edd Roush - Consistently missing games, in the weak league, not a good fielder, not a great hitter. Pass.
27. Rollie Fingers - Might squeeze into my PHOM one day, but I believe the importance of relievers is vastly overblown by baseball men, and I don't feel compelled to go along with it too much. If pressed on it, I'd say Wilhelm, Gossage, and Rivera were the only HOM relievers, with a couple others (including Fingers) right on the borderline.

Other newcomers

28. Cey - His career "fits" my system (in terms of how many good years he had) about as well as he can, so this may overrate him. Nonetheless, not as good as Perez, but his 7 year prime really was nice. If he had more, he'd be tough to keep out.
32. Porter - Shame there's been more talk about Garvey than him; Porter was a really good player, with one hell of a top season, especially for a catcher. A hair behind Munson, which is sadly for him enough for about 15 slots on my ballot, but should certainly not be forgotten; one of the better catchers in our backlog.
NR. Garvey - To be fair to him, he's close to making my (107 person) consideration set, but he was off the back. No peak, not even a great prime. Anyone voting for him for HOM should have their head examined.
   97. jimd Posted: January 20, 2007 at 12:50 AM (#2283384)
Ballot for 1993 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) S. CARLTON -- I have Seaver only slightly ahead of Carlton, and both comparable to Nichols. Prime 1969-83. Best player in 1972, also best player by WARP in 1980. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1972, 1977, 1980, 1982; WS adds 1981. Other star seasons include 1969, 1974, 1983. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1970, 1976, and 1978.

2) P. NIEKRO -- I have Niekro a notch behind with Roberts and Gibson. Another notch behind comes Palmer, Perry, and Jenkins. Prime 1967-80. Best player candidate by WARP in 1974 and 1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1969, 1974, 1978, 1979; also best RP in 1967. Other star seasons include 1972, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1984. HM in 1971.

3) R. JACKSON -- Underrated early, overrated late. See Park Effects. Prime 1968-82. Best player by WS in 1969; candidate by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1969, 1980; WS adds 1971, 1973; WARP adds 1974, 1976. Other star seasons include 1968, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1982; also 1972 in CF. HM in 1985.

4) -- p. rose slots here. In no season was he ever a WS/WARP consensus "best-player in MLB at his position". Prime 1965-1981. Best player candidate by WS in 1969. 1st-team MLB All-Star by WS only in 1966 (2B), 1972 (LF), 1975 and 1978 (3B). Other star seasons include 1965 (2B), 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971 (RF), 1967, 1973, 1974 (LF), 1976, 1977 (3B), 1979, 1981 (1B).

5) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

6) J. WYNN -- Splitting hairs between him and Singleton. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

7) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1968, 1974, 1975. HM in 1961, 1969, 1971.

8) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

9) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

10) B. BONDS -- Scored much higher than I thought he would. Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Very useful in that era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. (You are not alone.)

12) P. TRAYNOR -- I see the HOM as being somewhat heavy on "bats" (OF/1B) and went to a system organized around position groups (arms/bats/gloves). Traynor was the major beneficiary of the reorg. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

13) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

14) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but I have him ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

15) T. MUNSON -- Close to Howard and Freehan. Don't understand the lack of support. Prime 1970-78. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) 1976; WARP adds 1973. Other star seasons include 1970, 1975, 1977. HM in 1971, 1972, 1978.

16) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

17) R. FINGERS -- Doesn't score well in my system, but that's because relievers have problems in both WS and WARP, on which my All-Star system is based. I had similar problems with Wilhelm. Tentative placement, based on the work of Joe Dimino and Chris Cobb.

18) D. BANCROFT -- See Traynor. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

19) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

20) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Ron Cey, Nellie Fox, Bobby Veach,
24-25) Dizzy Dean, Dizzy Trout,
26-27) Roger Bresnahan, Ray Schalk,
28-29) Quincy Trouppe, Hugh Duffy,
30-31) Jake Beckley, Vida Blue,
32-33) Dick Redding, Wilbur Wood,
34-35) Bob Johnson, Jim McCormick,
36-37) Edd Roush, Charley Jones,
38-40) George Foster, Norm Cash, George Burns,

Keller: peak is not high enough, career is not long enough, when compared to other marginal OFers.

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.
   98. James Newburg Posted: January 20, 2007 at 01:33 AM (#2283395)
It's good to be back and rollin' with the HOMies. I'm putting the finishing touches on my ballot (damned Outfield Glut!) and I had a bit of a non-sequitiur question for the folks here.

I'm looking for an apartment (a room, really) and I'm trying to get paperwork together for this visit I'm supposed to make Tuesday. I'm wondering what all I should bring. I have personal references and my supervisor at work said he'd pitch in a good word because he's cool like that. As far as credit reports go, should I bring reports from all three agencies? Scores plus reports? I'm confused here. Is there any other paperwork that you think I should bring?

Also, for those who have been on either side of the roommate interviewing process -- as interviewer or interviewee -- do you have any tips?

I've been living out of a suitcase in a residential hotel for the past four months, so hopefully, the following week can mark the induction of three worthy HOMers and my successful move to the Presidio.

Don't want to turn a chunk of the Election thread into the Personal Advice thread, so if anyone has any suggestions or advice, you can e-mail me through the link or write something to my name (AT)

Ballot is forthcoming shortly, maybe even before the flip.

If I can figure Duffy and Van Haltren, that is.
   99. James Newburg Posted: January 20, 2007 at 03:31 AM (#2283430)
1993 Ballot

1. Pete Rose - I'm a Win Shares guy for position players, so Rose absolutely kills Reggie on peak and prime. As I figure it, Reggie beats Rose in their best seasons, but Charlie Hustle "wins" every season the rest of the way out. The Rose/Reggie comparison shows just how important durability is as part of a player's skill set.
2. Steve Carlton - Essentially a flat-footed tie with Niekro. I defer to Joe Dimino's exhaustive research and place Carlton ahead. 1972 is the single-best season of anyone on the ballot.
3. Phil Niekro - The fact that he could tie Carlton in spite of that single-season peak disadvantage is something. Had no idea he'd rank as highly as he did.
4. Reggie Jackson - Tremendous player. Durability is the only knock against him. The Reggie versus Rose comparison comes down, essentially, to rate stats versus counting stats.
5. Charlie Keller - For the first ten years of his career, he was the equal of Rose or Jackson. Hopefully, his day will come soon.

6. Rollie Fingers - Another member of the Swingin' A's I can vote for! His case rests on, in order, durability, leverage and quality. He does need that 1981 season to hang his hat on in order to place this highly. One of the five relievers who deserve induction into the HOM. Hoffman is certainly a possible candidate, as is Wagner with two-three more quality years.
7. Quincy Trouppe - He could hit. He could catch. Pretty close in value to Ted Simmons and he's a first-ballot HOMer next year.
8. Luis Tiant - Similar in value to the Outfield Glut, and all things being equal, I'll take the pitcher over the hitter.
9. Alejandro Oms - Same type of player as Minnie Minoso in terms of value pattern and skill set. Needed his prime to last two-three more years to be more of a slam-dunk HOMer.
10. Ken Singleton - Maybe my favorite "underrated" MLB player in history -- guys like him, Jimmy Wynn and Bobby Abreu. Shortish career for a "bat" candidate. Actually reminds me of Abreu without the stolen bases.

11. Jimmy Wynn - Lost a coin flip with Singleton. Even taking into account his last three seasons at DH, Singleton was the more durable player, and that's enough to make the difference. I'm not callous enough to count Wynn's 1971 against him on that score, however.
12. Edd Roush - Wynn's long-lost white cousin from 50 years ago. Couldn't ring up the walks totals like the Toy Cannon did in his era, but was the same hitter in OBP/SLG, could swipe a few bags, carried a solid glove in center, and had the same durability issues.
13. Tony Perez - His work at third base is enough to separate him from the other lowish-peak, long career bats.
14. Dick Redding - I wish I could feel more confident about the Cannonball's placement. Each time I review my evaluation of him, it feels like I'm throwing darts.
15. Hugh Duffy - The Kirby Puckett of his day. Like Puckett, he'd be in the bottom tenth or so of his Hall's selections, but someone has to be. (In Puckett's case, I'm referring to the HOF minus the Kellys and Marquards of the world.)

Top Ten Returnees Off Ballot
Pete Browning - With the bat backlog growing, it's getting harder for the bats to distinguish themselves. In this crowded field, the AA adjustment really hurts Browning.
Nellie Fox - Might pick up a 14th or 15th-place vote soon, but he has to cut in line in front of a lot of bats and ahead of Leach and Rizzuto, as well.
   100. Paul Wendt Posted: January 20, 2007 at 03:55 AM (#2283439)
Michael Bass 96:
I think he has literally every single thing over Carlton except for "biggest single year".

Carlton was a good not great batter, .201 with a little pop, 33 OPS+ and 98 runs created.
Niekro, .169 with half the taters, 8 OPS+ and 60 runs created.

Niekro did not have a 1972, but he was far more consistent than was Carlton, and played at a very high level for a very long time. (emphasis mine)

I think it's reasonable to rank Niekro above Carlton (and vice v) but these superlatives are gross exaggerations. Niekro's three best seasons were widely separated and he surpassed ERA+ 125 only those three times.

67 72 77 80 81 Carlton (five seasons at ERA+ 150 or better --his only seasons above 126!)
69 74 78 .. .. Niekro (three seasons at ERA+ 140 or better --his only seasons above 125!)
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