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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Sunday, December 10, 20061993 Ballot Discussion1993 (January 22)—elect 3 Players Passing Away in 1992 Candidates Thanks, Dan!
John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy
Posted: December 10, 2006 at 09:50 PM | 219 comment(s)
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That´s what I was thinking. If Rose has to wait, this year gets very interesting. I haven´t comlpeted my look at Grich, to see if he can measure up to the top of this class.
Possibly recalled for repairs. At this point John and I disagree on who has been elected - I don't think it was Fox. Details eventually.
The correct results are now up.
I've been perfect with my tally for months now, but I had to screw up with one of these damn backlog elections...
Reggie Jackson-RF- Few players as controversial without being accused of drugs or throwing games (although he is known to have had a steroids pusher sleeping at his house in the late 1980s). I remember Jackson as a round, old guy who hit 20 homers a year, couldn't run, rarely played the outfield, and hardly seemed athletic. Which is kind of funny given the amazing natural talents he obviously had: footspeed, arm, power, a do-it-all player. Darryl Strawberry is one guy he very much reminds me of, same sets of strengths and weaknesses on the field, but Jackson's competitive fire and ego fueled his playing, while Strawberry's insecurities and ego ate away his career.
Phil Niekro-P- I still remember Knucksie dancing the polka at Yankee Stadium.... Manager of the Silver Bullets women's baseball team... Man, he threw a ton of innings. One of the questions I have about him is whether or not his high innings totals were reflective of his era (and to some degree they must be), or whether they were reflective of the knuckler... Here's the beacon of hope for Tim Wakefield: Phil Niekro won 100 games after his age-forty season. Wakefield has 151 wins through age 39. Let's say he ends up at 165 through age forty. Wakefield's a pretty athletic guy, and because he converted to pitching later in his career (he was an infielder, I think, to begin with), maybe he has an extra season or two on his arm above Niekro (yeah, sure!). Could Wake win 135 games after 40? I'd like to find out! But I doubt it. Mostly, he's just not a good enough pitcher. Niekro finished his 5400+ innings with a 115 ERA+, and most of his age 40+ seasons weren't too pretty (just two at 105 ERA+ or more). Wakefield in his 1400+ innings has but a 108 ERA+, it doesn't look very positive for Tim.
Steve Carlton-P*- Tough choice between him and Niekro. Carlton's kind of interesting in that he has a lot of peaks and valleys. WS loves him because he threw a ton of innings. Just a ton for a non-knuckle guy. Essentially 250 or more innings every year from 1970 through 1983 (190 in the strike year, so equivalent; in this span, one year he was at 247). That must be the upside of all the eastern training methods. Unlike Seaver, however, he's not exactly super effective. He's got a lot of OK ERA+s with a few great ones scattered about. Here's Carlton, Niekro, and Seaver with a mystery guest thrown in:
years of 100+ innings
SC 182 164 162 151 150 126 119 117 115 113 111 110 106 105 101 101 98 80 78
PN 177 159 140 140 125 124 123 120 119 118 116 115 115 111 104 103 101 98 98 96 72
TS 193 175 166 150 145 142 140 137 136 127 123 122 119 115 112 105 105 103 98 68
?? 158 151 142 142 140 135 129 127 126 125 123 118 117 116 108 108 108 95 84 75 73
Niekro vs Carlton is a peak/prime argument, but Seaver whomps them both and how. Our mystery pitcher is very much in the argument with a prime argument stronger than Niekro's but a peak argument that's weakest of the bunch. But overall, ?? clearly belongs. He is Bert Blyleven.
Ron Cey-3B- As was the fashion around here for a while: Ron Cey nq Sal Bando. It's close, of course, but they are essentially the same player, so if one doesn't, then why the other?
Steve Garvey-1B- A delicious irony to possibly have Mr. Nice and Charlie Hustle on the same ballot! Two of the most shattered public personas of the 1980s. Also fun to have most of the great Dodger infield debuting on the ballot simultaneously. Garvey must have been considered the best among them when they were a unit, and probably at his retirement, yet in hindsight there's reason to believe he wasn't as valuable as Cey. (see also Davey Lopes, below.)
Garry Matthews-LF- Big Sarge. Does he get war credit?
Davey Lopes-2B- Also does Davey Lopes get war credit. I reported elsewhere in various threads that Lopes did some service time with U. Sam in the late 1960s, delaying his debut. Actually let me ask a question with this in mind. Let's say you could put one of the 24-year-old Garvey, Cey, or Lopes into a time machine and fast-forward him to 2007. Just one, and you could make him a starter on your big league team with the prior knowledge that they would be with your team for 10 years, which one would you most want? There's an argument for all three of them. Cey and Garvey we covered above, and they are close (I'd probably take Cey). But what about Lopes? Well, I just mentioned the missed time due to the service. He was drafted out of college, which meant that he was probably 22 in his first minor league campaigns. The combo of these two things plus the presence of Jimmy Gilliam meant that Lopes didn't make LA until age 27 and wasn't a regular until age 28! So most of the career we saw was decline. Given that Lopes had a pretty well rounded offensive game with good steal%s, walks, some power, and durability, he's perhaps as good a choice as the other two. His defense wasn't great, but he was athletic enough to avoid turning into Larry Doyle at a tough position. I wonder if a team that didn't have Willie Davis or Rick Monday around would have made him a CF. Mostly I wonder if the delays on the front end of his career limited the amount of growth/upside he had later in his career, since players who debut earlier seem to have more ceiling than later ones. Good player, no HOMer, but if he got a do-over, especially in our current walks/homers climate, I wonder if he'd be the one you'd take.
Bill Madlock-3B- Worst player with four batting titles? I didn't realize how controversial he was in his time, but maybe I should have, owing to his having played for numerous teams. My defining moment for his was September 24th, 1987. I've always wondered if his take-out slide into Tony Fernandez might have ruined a possible HOF/HOM career. Now I know that's idle speculation, but if you look at Fernandez's OPS+ through the injury, he was rising quickly from light-hitting gold glover to a very good offensive contributor particularly for a SS (going from OPS+s in the 80s and 90s to a peak of 112 in 1987 itself, his age 26 season). Fernandez missed the rest of 1987, hobbling the sinking Jays' playoff chances, and in the next several years, he lost ground on OPS+, sinking below average. Later, in early 1989, he was beaned in the face by Cecilo Guante, which couldn't have helped either. It wasn't until very late in his career that he had another good OPS+ year, with two straight 120+ years out of nowhere in the late 1990s. Did he peak early and quickly regress? I don't know, but I've always wondered if Madlock's slide turned Fernandez into a HOVG player.
Darrell Porter-C (2002)- Sad, coke-addled death in a KC (IIRC) public park. Porter might have been the AL's best catcher in the wake of Munson's death as Fisk had turned in a couple-few subpar years and wasn't yet entering his Chicago renaissance. Lots of power and patience, not much average, no speed, not known for his defense. I think of him as the Jorge Posada of his era. Not quite as good as Posada, really, but in the vein of being the third or fourth best catcher of the era and having the same offensive profile.
Cecil Cooper-1B- You could make a group of guys like Cooper. One of them is on this list, Steve Garvey. The common thread is first basemen who hit for good average, drove in lots of runs, didn't have stupendous power but could hit homers and doubles, and didn't walk all that often. Garvey, Cooper, Mattingly. Those guys seem like the nucleus of a family to me, without looking at any numbers, just off the cuff. Other possible guys on the family tree: Mickey Vernon, Bill Terry, Jim Bottomley, Andres Galarraga, Bob Watson, Bill White, Wally Joyner, Sean Casey. And if you must, Hal Morris.
Hal McRae-DH- The best retired DHs so far in no order: Baylor, McRae, Andre Thornton, Cliff Johnson, Mitchell Paige. I don't see any HOMers there either.
Doug DeCinces-3B- The Orioles let him go to make room for some rookie after the 1981 season. What were they thinking? Decinces is a guy who it's very hard to say much about.
Roy Smalley-SS- Great couple years before the back problems caught up to him. I mostly remember him as a huge disappointment to Yankee fans. Part of the pre-Jeter Yankees revolving SS door, and in retrospect, a player maybe somewhat like Jeter in having a good power/patience combo for a SS. Better glove though.... Anyway, that revolving door: Dent then Smalley then the Bobby Meacham Horror Picture Show (with cameos Mike Fishlin, and Paul Zuvella), Wayne Tolleson, a little Rafael Santana, three years of Alvaro Espinoza, hopes for Dave Silvestri (remember him?), Stanky(!!!), Spike Owen, then the two-headed Gallego/Velarde arrangement, then Tony Fenrandez in 1995 before Jeter finally won a job. It ain't 30-some years of Cubs or Mets 3Bs, but it was ugly while it lasted.
Dan Driessen-1B- In 1985, Jack Clark got hurt and White dredged up Cesar Cedeno who went bonkers for four weeks and helped win a flag. In 1987 history repeated itself as Clark was hurt and Whitey trolled in veteran Dan Dreissen for a month who promptly proceeded to...hit 233/309/317 to, uh, lead the Cards to victory. Gee, might as well have let Tom Lawless play.
Andre Thornton-1B/DH- Just talking about him. Bill James mentioned somewhere about Thornton's bad attitude. Anyone got more on this, I never heard much about it.
Rick Burleson-SS- He was really great until like 1982, then splat. Did he hurt himself? Not another air conditioner?
Jorge Orta-2B/DH- He's still out. He must have been a pretty rotten defender to go from 2B to DH. One of Mexico's biggest U.S. stars, however.
Johnny Grubb-LF/CF- Underrated in his prime, I suspect, since he had a robust but not flashy offensive game, but by the time I knew of him, the 1984 Tigers, he was a role player and would be fork tender within a couple years.
Ruppert Jones-CF- Another 1984 Tiger. I never quite got what kind of player he was. For some reason I remember him as a power hitter, and did hit 20 homers thrice, back when that meant something. But not really a big power guy. He did walk a fair amount (534 walks, 5038 PAs), but his averages were low enough that he was barely over the league's OBP. I recall him as a slow DH type, and he stole at a 63% clip, but he once stole 30 bases and had 143 career. Here's something interesting: 796 OPS vs righties, .609 vs lefties. Anyway, an odd kind of guy who did several things well, several things not as well, and whose results never quite formed a solid picture in my mind.
Lee Lacy-RF/LF- I just remember his big year in 1984 as part of the Coke Pirates, leading to a very disappointing contract with Balto.
Scott McGregor-P*- Is he a member of the "Classy" lefty genre? Or is he strictly a slopballer? Jimmy Key or Jeff Ballard?
Tony Bernazard-2B*- Surprisingly little career legnth and value, despite some nice seasons in the 1980s. What led to his exit from the game? Did he got to Japan? Was he hurt?
Bill Campbell-RP- Threw 120 innings in 1974 and 1975. Then... 1976: 168 innings, 17-5, 20 saves, 120 ERA+. They do not make them like that anymore. 1977: 140 innings, 13-9, 30 saves, 153 ERA+. Nor like that. Nor did Campbell, though. He wouldn't throw 100 innings again until 1982 and not more than 55 between 1977 and 1982. And he never saved 10 games in a year again either. And had only one more year with ERA+ above 107. Maybe, in a backhanded way, an indication that the Sox are doing the right thing with Johnathan Papelbon?
When was Jackson round? I remember him with a flat stomach, even with the Angels.
I have a similar impression of a lot of the great players from the '70s. I started paying attention to baseball in the early '80s. I noticed a number of players who had big reputations but old or slow or no-good. It wasn't until years later that I realized that a lot of these players had earned their reputations years earlier even if they were no longer playing at that level when I started watching them.
It wasn't until very late in his career that he had another good OPS+ year, with two straight 120+ years out of nowhere in the late 1990s. Did he peak early and quickly regress? I don't know, but I've always wondered if Madlock's slide turned Fernandez into a HOVG player.
I did a study of Fernandez' career a while back and those two 120+ years really stood out at me. They were significantly better than any other offensive year and they happened when he was in his late thirties. Oh, and he was in his late thirties in the late nineties. I don't normally jump to this conclusion but I really had to wonder if maybe Tony had started "juicing up" in order to keep his career going.
PNiekro 1 1 1 1 3 3 4 5 9 10 10
I don't have my HOM-er comps at this moment, but I think that's fairly typical of the Niekro-type guys.
I don't remember him as fat exactly, he wasn't Gorman Thomas with the overhanging belly, but in those sansabelt gray Angels road unis of the 1980s he seemed kind of not-athletic and doughy to me. Maybe round wasn't the right word, then? But when I see pictures of him in the early 1970s, chiseled looking, it makes me think of him as rounder in the late years.
Doc, you got that one backwards. My recollection is the guy was a saint.
And Reggie in 1969 and sometimes thereafter was in-#######-credible. Barry Bonds, basically.
Bill Campbell? In-#######-credible. Dominant. Pretty near Gossage-land for one incredible season. OK, make that Joe Nathan. The Twins have always had a good closer. Campbell and Nathan, Nathan and Campbell. Those are your two guys who just dominated.
Roy Smalley--one year he was just in-#######-credible. Oh, never mind. (But he was.)
It must have been the uniforms, Eric. If you ever catch an episode of "Greatest Sports Legends" with Jackson as the host from the mid-Eighties, he appears to be in fine shape.
Still, in the late '70s-early '80s, I do not believe that Reggie was still better than Rice.
http://i147.photobucket.com/albums/r284/asdf123_014/Jackson.jpg
2) Niekro
3) Carlton
4) Jackson
5) Grich (if unelected)
18) Cey - very good glove helps him over Bob Elliott
50) Porter - in the same neighborhood as Munson, Tenace, Bresnahan, Howard and Schang
100) Steve Garvey - how is he still on the HoF ballot all these years later and Lou Whitaker fell off after a year?
He was also quite a bit taller than Eddie Gaedel.
I saw it on the internet, it must be true!!!
I saw it on the internet, it must be true!!!
lol
Actually, Lopes was an OF in the minors (so was Bill Russell.) He didn't start playing second until sometime in 1971 it seems (played about 1/2 his games there.)
I think it's more the knuckler. The heydey of working pitchers was the first half of the 1970s, and Niekro went wild in the second half. The workloads were heavier in the AL, and Niekro pitched in the NL. In 1975, Andy Messersmith became the last non-knuckling NL pitcher to start 40 games. Niekro averaged over 40 starts in the next five years. Oh wait, I missed Randy Jones in 1976 and Steve Rogers in 1977. Still, from 1977-9 he was throwing far more than anyone else.
Steve Carlton-P*- Tough choice between him and Niekro.
If you think it's close please remember: knucklers always give up more unearned runs. Damn passed balls. ERA+ inflates Niekro's value.
Niekro is one of only two liveball pitchers to win and lose 20 in the same year. The other is his contemporaneous knuckleballer Wilbur Wood. Good trivia.
And Niekro's 21-20 season is still the last time any NL pitcher has lost 20 games. Who woulda thunk the last 20 loser in the NL would possess a winning record?
Favorite Davey Lopes story: while managing the Brewers he got involved in a controversy. With the Pads up by several runs late, Rickey, being Rickey, stole second base. An angry Lopes yelled at Rickey they'd stick one in his ear for that. I think they did and that's why it became a controversy. The great part: the next day Elias came out with the information that in Lopes's own career he'd stolen 6-7 bases with his team up by that much late in the game. Gotta love it. You can't escape from anything these days.
And of course, the three worst things a person can be are:
1) A Nazi war criminal
2) A child molester
3) Steve Garvey
The former first baseman is, as far as I know, the only person who fits into all three categories. . . . That being said, he was one of the best post-season performers of his generation.
If you think it's close please remember: knucklers always give up more unearned runs. Damn passed balls. ERA+ inflates Niekro's value.
But ERA+ also underrates Niekro because Niekro generally pitched in front of poor defenses. His NRA/DERA split in WARP is 4.07/3.96 Carlton goes the other way: 4.01/4.08 .
Still, I myself have Carlton slightly over Niekro. Lefty's _bad_ final years hurt his career rate stats.
interesting about lopes; i wonder if an earlier transition to 2b would have given him time/experience enough to become an average or better defender.
Sorry, just a quick gloat....
Can we let the guy pitch a game in MLB before we anoint him Cy Young Reincarnate?
If Rose is elected in 1992, then Grich waits until 1994 (I mean, he's horribly underrated and all, but would we take him over Jackson, Carlton, or Niekro? Seems unlikely)
If Grich is elected in 1992, then Rose goes in in 1993 (possibly in the #1 slot) and one of the Big Three newbies will have to wait. My guess would be Niekro, but Jackson is going to look a little less grand than people expect, I think. WARP's view of him is remarkably tepid, though DH adjusted WARP3 is a touch more friendly.
Carlton Niekro
28-10 38 23-11 28
24-10 30 21-11 23
20-11 22 23-14 23
18- 8 22 15- 8 16
14- 7 16 16-11 16
19-14 16 20-16 15
16-11 15 21-17 15
17-11 15 18-14 14
19-14 15 17-13 14
17-14 13 17-13 12
15-13 9 16-13 11
12-10 9 16-14 11
15-14 9 16-14 11
15-15 8 14-12 9
16-17 7 12-11 7
13-13 7 9- 7 6
13-13 5 13-13 6
2- 1 3 12-12 5
0- 1 -1 1- 1 0
6-11 -2 6- 9 -1
7-13 -4 2- 4 -1
Carlton's career sums to an equivalent 328-252, or 261 FWP.
Niekro's career sums to an equivalent 334-266, or 253 FWP.
Joe Niekro also appears to be eligible in 1993. His equivalent record is 196-202. All right, so he's not a serious candidate.
Phil Niekro and Carlton both have a high number of IP per decision - 9.13 and 9.10 respectively. The system above compensates by giving them more equivalent decisions than their real decisions.
Carlton rather famously had back-to-back years with the Cardinals (1970-71) in which his record swung from 10-19 to 20-9. The RA+-equivalent system completely flattens that and more, to 15-13 followed by 15-15.
Carlton's 1972 legitimately belongs on a rather short list of the greatest pitching seasons of the 20th century, although Gaylord Perry nearly matched it in the same year. It does stick up well above the rest of his career, although 1980 is also a very good year (that's the 24-10).
Seaver > Gibson > Perry > Carlton > Niekro > Palmer > Jenkins
They're all HoMers, of course. Palmer that "low" on this particular list, and with Niekro ahead of him, has to do with defensive support. And Gibson over Perry is a peak bonus.
Gene Tenace did..
His appearance in 5 games in 1988 pushes his eligibility to 1994.
Gene Tenace did..
For this class, I'm probably going to post (Christmas Eve weekend) 10 new player threads.
Does that answer your question, Howie? ;-)
As an individual voter, who are the most difficult-to-analyze/rank players you've come across? You know, that small handful of guys who just throw your system into fits, or who make your tummy feel funny because you can't pick between two equally compelling lines of thinking about them. The ones you probably don't vote for, and who you may secretly avoid discussing at great length because you feel so unsure about how the rate out in your thinking?
Here's some of mine: Waddell, Joss, Boyer, Latham, Schang, Munson, Long, Luque, McCormick, Mullane, Newcome.
I beleive a big portion of that can be attributed to my disdain at systems which rate individuals singularly for their participation in a group setting. I do not look at WARP or WS simply because I don't have an inclination to measure that aspect of baseball. I find it leaning too much towards circumstance and not as much on performance. Granted, there is a large overlap between the two, but there will, by design, remian areas uncovered.
So I measure players as best as I can without it. I used to think of myself as peak. I now see that I really try to vote for players whose games are all-round. Some peak, some prime, some career.
I find myself less concerned with final numbers than with how they were acheived.
While in my time here the electorate has chosen ten players who have yet to reach my PHOM, the majority of them are very close to mine. The farthest from my taste (thus far) are the middle infielders - Moore, Childs and Gordon.
The issue with my system which sometimes concerns me (not too much, but a bit) is that it may undervalue corner outfielders who did not have high (and durable) peaks and/or impressive defensive reputations. I had B. Williams and Stargell lower than the consensus, but Gavvy Cravath and Bobby Veach rank relatively well.
But the guy who surprised me was Cey: Similar to Boyer but with a bit more career, and a glance at his BPro page makes him look good too. Might make another newbie on my '93 ballot (and, inspired by this, I should probably take another look at Bando, right?).
But the guy who surprised me was Cey: Similar to Boyer but with a bit more career, and a glance at his BPro page makes him look good too. Might make another newbie on my '93 ballot (and, inspired by this, I should probably take another look at Bando, right?).
As for the players who make my system struggle, definitely the multi-position guys. I almost tore my hair trying to figure out how to treat Rose.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
A wild guess says that ballot will be invalidated...
If you mean the first ten as listed, let me suggest that Hal McRae #11 may provide the occasion for broaching the DH seriously.
On the other hand, analysis of the DH may merit its own thread. I admit ignorance of the states of the arts --how people adjust individual player records or league benchmarks for the DH.
Reggie Jackson-RF- Few players as controversial without being accused of drugs or throwing games (although he is known to have had a steroids pusher sleeping at his house in the late 1980s)
Was that Jackson? Or was that Rose? Or was it both of them? I specifically remember it being true of Rose; I don't have any such recollections about Jackson, not that that proves anything.
Two other comments about REGGIE™ (not to be confused with R. Smith):
1. He had his single best year at the age of 23. And even with that year, he hit his 30th home run on July 1, his 37th by the All-Star break, his 40th on July 29. The idea of hitting 61 was in the air - the buzz could be felt. Before the ASB he hit .287/.414/.716, playing every day. After the break, missing about 10 games, he went .258/.406/.453, finishing the year with a "mere" 47 HR. So the year - his greatest - gets remembered as a disappointment.
2. Jackson, Martin, and Steinbrenner - a perfectly matched (or mismatched) mixture. Who can forget, "One's a born liar and the other is convicted"?
Tony Oliva?
Joe Morgan?
Good question. I have to say that sometimes I think I am overrating Dean and Rosen, both are now in m top 5 or 6 non PHOM players and it makes me a little uneasy thinking they will soon be PHOM, especially Rosen.
I also think that sometimes I underrate great defensive middle infielders like Bancroft, Maranville, and Mazeroski. I also have to keep looking at McGraw, Chance, and Roush. And for some reason I really have no idea how to rank Tommy Leach, who has been as high as #6 for me and as low as #45 (Currently in the 30's i think). I think that Leach is someone that a lot of voters ahve trouble with.
Honestly, why would you do that since that certain someone would pretty much be guaranteed election in 1993.
Taking just the WS part of my system, if I were to rank him solely as a CFer his numbers are underwhelming and he isnt' a real candidate. WS seems to love CFers, especially from that era. However, if I rank him solely as a 3B I woudl have had him above Boyer (i.e. in my top ten) and would be auguring for his election. And then Warp is not too big a fan of his either. He is one candidate that I would love a close look at in the near future to decide if he is worth more votes.
OCF, I probably should have attributed the Reggie thing. Here's the story about the steroid dealer who Reggie palled around with and had as a house guest:
Steroid dealer on Reggie's couch
The pertinent paragraph is about 2/3s of the way down.
But, yes, I had forgotten about Paul Janzen, Pete Rose's steroid-selling friend and house guest!
Hustler on C. Hustlers's couch
Interesting side line to all this: Pete Rose, Jr. was apparently busted for possessing/selling steroids.
Lil' Pete story
I'm boycotting Rose for not instilling moral values in his children! (Just kidding, I'm still not boycotting.)
That's a good point, Paul. Make that 11 then. :-)
It does seem OK that he should be allowed to not post a ballot in protest, but not that he should post a blank ballot.
As long as he knows that it wont count, I have no problem with him posting his "ballot" as a statement against Rose.
BTW, Though I will vote for him if he's on the ballot in '93, I empathize with yest's feelings in regard to Rose.
Ezra Sutton 2800 career hits, Jake Beckley 3148, etc. . . . very nice to be able to see it without having to do the work yourself. Sean adjusts everyone to a 162 game season and a 750 R/Team environment.
1898 Williamson O'Neill Jones, C Welch
1899 Browning* Williamson O'Neill Dunlap
1900 Browning Williamson Mullane* Welch
1901 Browning Williamson Welch McCormick
1902 Browning Williamson Welch McCormick
1903 Browning Williamson Welch McCormick
1904 Browning Griffin* Williamson Welch
1905 Browning Tiernan* Griffin McCormick
1906 Browning Tiernan McCormick Williamson
1907 Duffy* Browning Tiernan Griffin
1908 Duffy Tiernan Browning Williamson
1909 Ryan* Duffy Van Haltren*McCormick
1910 Duffy Ryan Van Haltren Browning
1911 Duffy Ryan Van Haltren Tiernan
1912 Duffy Ryan Van Haltren Tiernan
1913 Duffy Ryan Beckley* Van Haltren
1914 Duffy Ryan Beckley Van Haltren
1915 Duffy Ryan Van Haltren Beckley
1916 Duffy Ryan Van Haltren Beckley
1917 Duffy Van Haltren Beckley Ryan
1918 Van Haltren Ryan Beckley Duffy
1919 Van Haltren Ryan Beckley Duffy
1920 Duffy Van Haltren Beckley Ryan
1921 Bresnahan* Beckley Duffy Ryan
1922 Beckley Bresnahan Duffy Van Haltren
1923 Beckley Ryan Van Haltren Duffy
1924 Beckley Ryan Duffy Van Haltren
1925 Van Haltren Beckley Ryan Bresnahan
1926 Beckley Van Haltren Ryan Bresnahan
1927 Beckley Van Haltren Ryan Bresnahan
1928 Beckley Van Haltren Ryan Bresnahan
1929 Beckley Van Haltren Ryan Bresnahan
1930 Van Haltren Beckley Ryan Bresnahan
1931 Van Haltren Beckley Bresnahan Ryan
1932 Van Haltren Beckley Duffy Bresnahan
1933 Van Haltren Beckley Welch Duffy
1934 Beckley Van Haltren Welch Browning
1935 Beckley Van Haltren Welch Browning
1936 Beckley Van Haltren Welch Browning
1937 Beckley Welch Browning Van Haltren
1938 Beckley Welch Van Haltren Browning
1939 Beckley Van Haltren Leach Welch
1940 Beckley Leach Van Haltren Duffy
1941 Leach Beckley Van Haltren Duffy
1942 Van Haltren Leach Beckley Duffy
1943 Beckley Van Haltren Duffy Leach
1944 Van Haltren Beckley Duffy Leach
1945 Van Haltren Beckley Duffy Roush
1946 Beckley Duffy Van Haltren Roush
1947 Beckley Van Haltren Duffy Roush
1948 Beckley Van Haltren Duffy Welch
1949 Beckley Van Haltren Roush Duffy
1950 Beckley Van Haltren Duffy Welch
1951 Beckley Van Haltren Duffy Roush
1952 Van Haltren Beckley Duffy Redding
1953 Van Haltren Beckley Welch Duffy
1954 Beckley Van Haltren Redding Browning
1955 Beckley Van Haltren Welch Redding
1956 Beckley Van Haltren Redding Duffy
1957 Beckley Van Haltren Duffy Welch
1958 Beckley Van Haltren Duffy Browning
1959 Van Haltren Beckley Duffy Welch
1960 Van Haltren Beckley Browning Duffy
1961 Van Haltren Beckley Duffy Browning
1962 Van Haltren Beckley Duffy Browning
1963 Van Haltren Beckley Duffy Browning
1964 Van Haltren Beckley Duffy Redding
1965 Van Haltren Beckley Duffy Redding
1966 Van Haltren Beckley Redding Duffy
1967 Van Haltren Beckley Redding Browning
1968 Van Haltren Beckley Redding Duffy
1969 Van Haltren Redding Beckley Duffy
1970 Van Haltren Redding Beckley Browning
1971 Redding Van Haltren Beckley Browning
1972 Van Haltren Redding Beckley Duffy
1973 Redding Van Haltren Beckley Duffy
1974 Redding Van Haltren Duffy Beckley
1975 Redding Duffy Browning Van Haltren
1976 Redding Beckley Duffy Van Haltren
1977 Redding Beckley Duffy Van Haltren
1978 Beckley Duffy Redding Fox
1979 Beckley Redding Duffy Fox
1980 Beckley Duffy Redding Jones, C
1981 Redding Duffy Beckley Fox
1982 Duffy Beckley Redding Fox
1983 Beckley Duffy Redding Fox
1984 Beckley Redding Fox Wynn
1985 Fox Beckley Redding Wynn
1986 Fox Redding Wynn Beckley
1987 Fox Wynn Beckley Trouppe
1988 Wynn Fox Jones, C Beckley
1989 Wynn Fox Roush Browning
1990 Wynn Fox Browning Keller
1991 Fox Wynn Trouppe Roush
1) Niekro, Phil
2) Carlton, Steve - Niekro and Carlton are even in PRAA if you remove Carlton's crappy seasons but Niekro still has the edge in PRAR. Also, Carlton had some crappy seasons.
3) Jackson, Reggie - around the HoM median player
4) Grich, Bobby
5) Johnson, Bob
6) Tiant, Luis
7) Cash, Norm
8) Trouppe, Quincy
9) Beckley, Jake
10) Staub, Rusty
11) Smith, Reggie
12) Perez, Tony
13) Bridges, Tommy
14) Trucks, Virgil
15) Cravath, Gavy
16) Wynn, Jim
17) Cey, Ron - looks a lot like Boyer
18) Cepeda, Orlando
19) Roush, Edd
20) Clarkson, Bus
21-25) Keller, Charlie; Leonard, Dutch; Elliott, Bob; Quinn, Jack; Easter, Luke
26-30) Redding, Dick; Willis, Vic; Bancroft, Dave; Shocker, Urban; Koosman, Jerry
31-35) Howard, Frank; Bonds, Bobby; Smith, Hilton; Oms, Alejandro; Evers, Johnny
As for the unearned runs, they do matter, but he pitched behind some terrible defenses, and it basically offsets the unearned runs. I get his career DRA+ at 114, his ERA+ is 115. He's 3rd all-time in translated innings (behind only Young and Johnson).
Also, it was mentioned that his 40+ years weren't too pretty, I'd disagree. Starting in 1979, I get this:
Year RSAR WAR PA DRA tIP
1979 70 7.3 .105 3.76 354.7
1980 38 4.0 .052 4.28 301.7
1981 34 3.5 .045 3.99 223.7
1982 40 4.2 .055 3.95 236.7
1983 16 1.6 .020 4.72 210.0
1984 41 4.3 .056 3.82 221.0
1985 16 1.7 .020 4.83 223.7
1986 5 .5 .006 5.29 227.0
1987 0 .0 .000 5.64 138.7
Remember, 4.50 is equivalent to a 100 ERA+, 4.29 = 105 ERA+. ERA+ underrates those years.
His peak is enormous - there's a ton of innings, and a very good rate. He was probably the best pitcher in the NL from 1974-79 and no one realized it. I mean in 1978 he turned in a 3.20 DRA (=141 ERA+) with 339 translated innings (280 will typically lead the league). That's just sick. I mean he's a career value guy, but few than 20 guys had a better '5th best season' - which means his peak is way up there too.
OK still have Carlton, Sutton, Guidry and Phil's brother Joe to do . . .
But the even funnier thing is that by the end of the 1978 season, he was clearly a HoMer (Pennants Added = to Hal Newhouser or Eppa Rixey) if he never threw another pitch, despite only having 197 wins at that point - that's how good he was. He would have been a borderline candidate (in the Bridges/Pierce area) if he quit after 1977, before his best year.
When you do run Carlton, you'll get that the one thing Niekro doesn't have is a Carlton 1972. That may be the difference right there. As I said above in #37, ...
Comparing Gibson to Niekro, 5 best seasons:
Gibson 11.1, 8.3, 8.3, 7.7, 6.9
Niekro 9.2, 7.9, 7.3, 7.2, 6.5
Gibson has the edge, but it's not enormous, he's ahead on those 5 years by 4.2 or so WAR 42.3-38.1 (and most of that edge is from Gibson's superior hitting, not pitching).
But over the rest of their careers, Niekro beats him quite handily, 58.3-44.3. IMO that's more than enough to say Niekro > Gibson, despite Gibson's peak edge.
Carlton will be in shortly . . .
Carlton's 1972 really was as huge as they say. I've got it as the best non-Walter Johnson season of all-time among the eligibles. And that's enough to put him past Niekro - the difference between that season and Niekro's 1978 is basically what separates them in the final tally.
Carlton's last 3 years were a complete disaster, dropped his career DRA+ from 117 to 113, which considering he threw 5200 innings is saying something - his career DRA went from 3.84 to 3.99 during those 327.3 innings . . .
Finally, as pitchers I actually have Niekro ever so slightly ahead, 1.356-1.341. Carlton moves ahead because he was +29 runs as a hitter, and Knucksie was -9. As an example, that's enough to offset Niekro's entire 1968 season.
So using OCF's chart from post #37, I get:
Seaver > Carlton > Niekro > Gibson > Perry > Jenkins > Palmer.
Still waiting on Sutton and Blyleven.
I get his 3-year peak at 1980-82, but it's cleverly disguised by the strike. Pretty wild to throw the greatest non-Walter Johnson season ever, then have your 3-year peak 8-10 years later. He was that good. That 1980 season was pretty incredible. I believe he was the last pitcher to throw 300 innings that year, and he did it will throwing at a 159 DRA+ and he topped it off throwing 27.3 post-season innings where he gave up just 7 ER and won a World Series. That's a season.
1981-83 was his second best 3-year run, followed by 1972-74 and 1970-72.
There really were some clunkers in the middle, he was below average in 1973 and 1975, nothing special in 1970-71, 1978-79.
He had as many big seasons as anyone, they were just spread out a little more than usual - he does much better on "any 5-seasons" peak (9th all-time) than 3-consecutive (tied for 20th).
Seaver > Carlton > Niekro > Gibson > Perry > Sutton > Jenkins > Palmer.
His case is all career value, but there's a ton of it.
His peak isn't that bad, there are some really good 'rate' years, like 1972 (his best year) and 1980. He didn't throw a ton of innings in 1980, but we was a great pitcher when he was out there. Sutton's peak would be the lowest of anyone we've elected, but it's only a hair below Whitey Ford's (and Sutton edges him on best 3-consecutive).
So his best year is 6.8 WAR, and he was effective for 22 years, really no bad seasons in there (1978-79 were his worst years, and even those were 1.9 and 2.2 WAR). I mean, except for the strike in 1981, he threw 200+ innings every year for 21 years (191.7 in the 22nd year), and was pretty good most of the time. He was top 5 in the NL Cy Young race 5 consecutive years (1972-76). When you add it all up it's a Hall of Merit career to me.
Pete Rose (if not elected in 92)
1- Reggie Jackson
Overrated post-season heroics, and obnoxious. But a great, great ballplayer. Put him in the modern game and he would have hit over 700 home runs.
2- Steve Carlton
The poster boy for athletes not knowing when they are “done”.
3- Bobby Grich
4- Phil Niekro
Those knuckleball-induced unearned runs lower him a bit. Two of his three top-3 finishes in ERA+ look much much poorer when using RA+. And his ERA title in 67 came while only pitching less than 70% of the league leader's innings. OTOH, quite a horse, and toiled in front of mediocre defenses.
5th thru 12th Jake Beckley John McGraw Bucky Walters Bob Johnson
Frank Chance Dick Redding George Van Haltren Charlie Keller
13- Louis Tiant
Four postseason starts. Averaged 8.5 innings, 2.6 ERA, team won all 4 games. Take that, Bob Gibson.
14- Jimmy Wynn
15- Burleigh Grimes
Ron Cey; sweet prime! A perfect 'arc' of a career, but Dodger stadium supressed his ##s. About even with Bando and Elliot and Traynor and Leach in the very crowded Hall of Almost Good Enough Third Basemen.
I still have him as the best pitcher that year despite that, Tom.
> The poster boy for athletes not knowing when they are “done”.
Salary 1985-1988: $2.25M - from Baseball Reference.
They don't have a citation/source for that anecdote. Its a great anecdote, though. :-)
That's reason enough not to quit right there. Anyhow, he wasn't half bad in 1985 before he got hurt (unlucky though). Seems like he thought he could get better in 1986 but to no avail and the Phillies dumped him. Four more teams between July 86 and April 88 is where the hanging-on-too-long reputation comes from, but I suppose he did another ring out of it.
That should probably say third.
It does now.
NL win shares pitching leaders for 1967, their WS, and then their WARP3 next to that. I did not look for other pitchers who may have had more WARP than Knucksie. Yes, I know replacement level is low for WS and WARP, but reliever Ted Abernathy comes out OK, and it DOES include defense adjustment. And I'm not sure if WARP counts much of the UNearned runs against Phil or not?
Bunning.. 25 9.5
Abernathy24 7.3
Seaver... 21 8.0
Niekro... 21 7.1
Jenkins... 21 8.0
GPerry... 20 8.1
Nolan..... 19 7.2
Pitcher WAR DRA+ tIP
Bunning 7.1 135 286.3
Nolan 5.9 145 216.7
Jenkins 5.7 121 274.0
Abernathy 5.5 208 146.0
Seaver 5.4 126 241.0
Perry,G 5.3 117 281.3
Niekro,P 4.9 134 201.0
McCormick 4.4 115 251.3
Briles 4.4 138 166.3
Hughes 4.1 121 206.3
Gibson 3.3 118 166.0
Of course, 18 of the 20 voters picked McCormick for the Cy Young. Only one of the 20 picked Bunning.
Bunning 21-12 [23]
Jenkins 19-13 [18]
Seaver 17-11 [16]
Perry 20-13 [19]
Niekro 15-8 [16]
Gibson 11-8 [9]
Kind of a down year for NL pitching stars. Of course, Koufax had just retired. That was the year Clemente broke GIbson's leg - and the Cardinals ran away with the pennant without Gibson (note listings above for Briles and Hughes - Hughes was a one-year wonder.) Bunning was much better in this system in 1966 (24-11 [29]).
http://mikesrants.baseballtoaster.com/archives/402397.html
that has way much more in it than I am willing to digest right now. Whole series of articles on ranking bullpen men. Don't know what he does and doesn't account for, but maybe it will add another tool to our box.
Seaver > Gibson > Perry > Carlton > Niekro > Palmer > Jenkins
Joe Dimino, post #71:
Seaver > Carlton > Niekro > Gibson > Perry > Jenkins > Palmer
What I found under the Christmas tree: someone gave me that 2007 Hardball Times annual. There's an article there by David Gassko on the most valuable pitchers of all time. He ranks by career WAR, which makes it something of a career point of view, and he adjusts for both defensive support and level of competition, which makes him explicitly a timeliner. For greatest pitching season, 20th centurey, he has Carlton 1972 as the #1 year, ahead of Johnson 1913, with GIbson 1968 and Gooden 1985 down at #7 and #8. (And the greatest 19th century year: Pud Galvin, 1884, ahead of Radbourne that year - the defensive support adjustment speaks there.)
But back to the question at hand: what does Gassko say about the two posts I just quoted?
Seaver > Carlton > Niekro > Perry > Jenkins > Gibson > Palmer
But Palmer is ranked as #24 of all time - these guys are all way up there on the list. Fleshing it out further:
Seaver > Blyleven > Carlton > Niekro > Perry > Jenkins > Gibson > Ryan > Sutton > Palmer > Reuschel > John
> Tiant > Bunning > Tanana > Kaat > Koosman > Drysdale > Ford > Marichal > Pierce > Lolich > Larry Jackson
> Koufax > Steve Rogers > Pappas > Wood > Blue > Hough > Candelaria > Jim Perry
Rick Reuschel? We'll have to pay attention when he comes up.
I am reposting as I believe it's an issue for discussion.
Peak, prime, career....all valid qualifiers for candidates but a few questions arise as I review voters recent ballots.
If a voter likes Indian Bob Johnson, as many folks do, why no love for Chuck Klein?
Chuck had a five year run from 1929 thru 1933 that was pretty sensational; .359 BA;
.413 OBP; .635 Slg %; 160 OPS+; averaged 46 doubles and 36 HRs.
Granted he began to fall back toward the rest of the league at age 30 but he was still a 121 OPS+ hitter for the next 6 years.
That's an 11 year prime where he hit 280+ HRs and had an OPS+ of 129.
Not Babe Ruth, but certainly Bob Johnson.
Bob and Chuck are within 1% point of one another for career OPS+; 137 vs 138
Plus Chuck was MVP in 1932 and runner-up in '31 and '33.
I'd think peak/prime voters would be all over both Bob & Chuck.
So voters, take another look at Chuck.
1950 (7) - Feller Newhouser Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce
1951 (6) - Feller Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce
1952 (9) - Paige Feller Newhouser Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm
1953 (8) - Paige Feller Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford
1954 (7) - Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford
1955 (7) - Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford
1956 (7) - Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford
1957 (7) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Drysdale Bunning
1958 (9) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax
1959 (9) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax
1960 (9) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax
1961 (9) - Spahn Roberts Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson
1962 (11) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson
1963 (10) - Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson
1964 (10) - Spahn Roberts Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson GPerry
1965 (10) - Spahn Roberts Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson GPerry
1966 (9) - Wilhelm Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer
1967 (8) - Wilhelm Drysdale Bunning Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Seaver
1968 (7) - Wilhelm Drysdale Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Seaver
1969 (8) - Wilhelm Bunning Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
1970 (8) - Wilhelm Bunning Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
1971 (6) - Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
1972 (6) - Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
1973 (6) - Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
1974 (5) - Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Seaver
1950 (9) - DiMaggio, Slaughter, TWilliams, Musial OF-1B, Doby, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso
1951 (12) - DiMaggio, Slaughter, TWilliams, Musial OF-1B, Irvin OF-1B, Doby, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso OF-3B, Mantle, Mays
1952 (8) - Slaughter, Musial OF(1B), Doby, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle
1953 (10) - Slaughter, Irvin, Musial, Doby, JRobinson OF-3B, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle
1954 (12) - TWilliams, Irvin, Musial, Doby, JRobinson OF-3B, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline
1955 (12) - Slaughter, TWilliams, Doby, Kiner, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Kaline, Clemente
1956 (12) - Slaughter, TWilliams, Irvin, Doby, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson
1957 (13) - Slaughter, TWilliams, Doby, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, Boyer OF-3B, FRobinson
1958 (11) - TWilliams, Doby, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson
1959 (9) - TWilliams, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente
1960 (10) - TWilliams, Musial OF-1B, Ashburn, Snider, Minoso, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente
1961 (11) - Musial, Minoso, Mantle, Berra, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski
1962 (11) - Musial, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, McCovey, Killebrew, Yastrzemski
1963 (13) - Musial, Snider, Minoso, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, McCovey, Killebrew, Yastrzemski, Stargell OF(1B)
1964 (11) - Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, McCovey OF(1B), Killebrew, Yastrzemski, Stargell OF-1B
1965 (9) - Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski, Stargell
1966 (9) - Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski, Stargell
1967 (8) - Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski, Stargell OF-1B
1968 (9) - Mays, Aaron, Kaline OF(1B), Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski, Stargell, Allen
1969 (8) - Mays, Aaron, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski OF(1B), Stargell OF(1B)
1970 (7) - Mays, Aaron, Kaline OF-1B, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Stargell
1971 (7) - Mays OF-1B, Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson OF-1B, BiWilliams, Yastrzemski, Stargell
1972 (5) - Kaline, Clemente, FRobinson, BiWilliams, Yastremski OF-1B
1973 (4) - Aaron, Kaline OF-1B, BiWilliams, Stargell
1974 (2) - Aaron, Stargell
1962 is the only 'blank' catching year since 1920 (technically Berra appeared in 86 G, but only 59 in the field and only 31 as C. Torre appeared in 80 G, with 63 as C).
Only 1B 'blanks' in that span are 1952-54 (Mize is done and Musial playing the OF).
With the Rose deferral, 2B still blank from 1953-64 (only time since 1920).
3B blanks are 1947 and 1949-51 (between Hack and Mathews), plus 1976-81.
THAT particular blank will get filled quite convincingly - just who was the best player in baseball, at any position, over that period?
yeah, some of the holes will get filled alright.
I think it's intriguing how few 'blanks' there are, without much effort on that front. Some non-Foxers do feel as if he's benefiting from a 'void vote,' but that's one of the only such sentiments, I think.
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