I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Phil Niekro-P (n/e): In my mind, clearly the best player eligible. Closer than most people would have thought to Carlton during the '70s, since no one really thought Knucksie was a great pitcher at the time. In retrospect, that was a ludicrous stand. Best ML pitcher for 1967 and close in 1974. Best NL pitcher for 1974 and 1978.

2) Ted Simmons-C/DH/1B (n/e): One of the most underrated players ever, glad to see that he'll be a HoMer very soon. Best NL catcher for 1977 and 1978 (very close to being the best in the majors for both years).

3) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (5): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

4) Charlie Keller-LF (6): Thanks to James Newburg and others, I'm totally sold on "King Kong" now. Best ML right fielder for 1940. Best ML left fielder for 1943.

5) Charley Jones-LF/CF (7): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

6) Bucky Walters-P (8): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

7) Mickey Welch-P (9): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

8) Pete Browning-CF/LF (10): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

9) Vic Willis-P (11): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

10) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/DH (12): Glad to see that he's getting support now. Best player at his primary position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, and 1969. Best right fielder for 1972 and 1974.

11) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (13): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

12) Gavvy Cravath-RF (14): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

13) Alejandro Oms-CF (15): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

14) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (n/e): Back on my ballot. He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

15) Burleigh Grimes-P (n/e): Makes it back on my ballot after a "years" off. Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

Fox, Trouppe, Roush and Fingers all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

Sutton was a very good pitcher. There is no denying that fact. But he also benefited from a great park to pitch in, fine offenses backing him up and conditions that made it easier to have a long career than in any other time. There is no denying that fact, either (though some may on my latter point :-). It still gets him close enough to my ballot, but not close enough

Sutter isn’t really close for me and I like relievers. Concepcion isn’t really close for me and I like defensive middle infielders. Cruz is in the 30s or 40s. Guidry is lower.

1. Phil Niekro – Nolan Ryan’s #2 comp. Nice career.

2. Don Sutton – 7th all time in innings pitched, 3rd in starts. A clear step above Rixey and Faber.

3. Ted Simmons – phenomenal numbers for a catcher. Ranks much higher on the all time positional list than any other extant candidate.

4. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

5. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

6. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

7. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

8. Tony Perez – this might be a bit high, but I am comfortable with it. 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

9. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

10. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

11. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

12. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

13. Luis Tiant, p – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

14. Rollie Fingers – he is a real borderline closer for me. As of 1994, I think he is meritorious, so I have him here and could have him as high as 11th (though I think I have found this spot for him – I definitely like Tiant better and I am pretty sure I prefer him to the four hitters directly below him). If he is still on the ballot in 2006, he might move down.

15. Graig Nettles – definitely better than Traynor, about equal to Boyer. Obviously, the defence is a big help.

Touppe, Wynn, Roush and Keller: Trouppe is fourth among my catchers and not close (60s). Wynn cracks my top 50 but I don't like anything about him. I like Roush -- he is in my 30s. Keller's career is too short and has really fallen out of my consideration set -- he is not in my top 100.

PHoM: Bobby Grich, Graig Nettles, Don Sutton


1. Phil Niekro (3,x,x)

This is th epoint where the Pete Rose stuff ends for me. Grich got in instead of Rose. Rose got in instead of Niekro. Grich would have got in this year but it will probably be Niekro. End of story.

2. Tony Perez (6,3,x)
3. Rusty Staub (9,5,2)

The modern Van Haltrens. Needless to say, I am a career guy.

4. Jake Beckley (5,6,3)

I really thought he would be in my now. He isn't getting any closer though.

5. Edd Roush (10,10,10)
6. Nellie Fox (7,8,6)

Will Fox be #3 this year?

7. Graig Nettles (new)

Not a lot of support from the looks of things. Hm. I might be overvaluing him. We'll see.

8. George Van Haltren (8,7,4)
9. Tommy Leach (12,12,5)

Why did I bump him so much last year?

10. Don Sutton (new)

I am not as high on him as I thought I would be, but it wouldn't bother me at all if he got in.

11. Lou Brock (15,13,8)
12. Jimmy Wynn (11,9,9)
13. Quincy Trouppe (14,11,11)
14. Ted Simmons (new)

See Sutton, only more so.

15. Mickey Welch (13,14,12)

16-20. Cruz, Duffy, Cepeda, Cash, Singleton
21-25. R.Smith, Bonds, Johnson, Redding, Ryan
26-30. Browning, Cedeno, Grimes, Doyle, McCormick

Sutton’s a pitching Pete Rose, without the 1 career number or the overrating. Nettles WAY overrated by WS, presumably because his teams were good -- not that long a career, not as good as Cey. Simmons, on the other hand is the real deal – just behind Beckley and Niekro. Cruz also wildly overrated by WS – 120 OPS+, park-corrected for the Astrodome, just not that special for an OF – off the bottom of consideration set. Concepcion is Nellie Fox only more so; add the 25 maximum to his 88 OPS+ and he’s still only 113, nowhere near good enough. Baylor and Hendrick also nowhere near good enough; indeed as a moderate baseball watcher throughout his career I hadn’t heard of Hendrick, presumably promoted above 200 WS by the illogicalities of the WS system.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-2-2) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 80 “years” ago.

2. (N/A-3) Phil Niekro. Incredible longevity and pretty good. 318-274, 5404 innings at 115, OPS+ 8. Really equal to Carlton; greater length offset by Carlton’s hitting.

3. (N/A) Ted Simmons Longish career, esp. for a catcher and pretty good – his 118 becomes 138 when adjusted to OF, easily HOMable. 24732 hits. TB+BB/PA.479 TB+BB/Outs .700

4. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7-5-5-7) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA. Getting close to the HOM, and thereby boosting my consensus score!

7. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9-8-6-6-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

8. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7-7-9) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

10. (N/A) Don Sutton 324-256 is impressive, as is 5283IP. ERA+108 much less so. Nevertheless, he has to be above both Kaat and Tiant, rather like a pitching Pete Rose, but without the low-EQ penalty.

11. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

12. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

12. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

14. (N/A-15-N/A-13-13-15-14-12-14-15) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

15. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765. Off again, will return.

17. (N/A-15-N/A) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long.

18. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

19. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far – back up towards ballot in Pierce’s slot.

20. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

21. (N/A) Bill Madlock. 2008 hits at 123, but he was a 3B. TB+BB/PA .477, TB+BB/Outs .708.

22. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

23. Reggie Smith 2020 hits at OPS+ of 137. Extra intangibles for membership of Impossible Dream. TB”BB/PA .537, TB+BB/Outs .810. Better player than I thought at the time.

24. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

25. Toby Harrah 1954 hits@114. TB+BB/PA .465, TB+BB/Outs .697 If full-time SS, would be on ballot.

26. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Downgraded on consideration of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP.
27. Ben Taylor.
28. Jim Kaat
29. Orlando Cepeda
30. Norm Cash
31. Tony Perez. Even here may be too high. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
32. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy.
33. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
34. Cesar Cedeno
35. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
36. Lou Brock
37. Mickey Vernon
38. Thurmon Munson
39. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
40. Sal Maglie.
41. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
42. (N/A) Heinie Manush
43. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
44. Bob Elliott
45. (N/A) Dick Lundy
46. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
47. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
48. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
49. Gene Tenace
50. Kiki Cuyler
51. Deacon McGuire
52. Jerry Koosman.
53. Boog Powell
54. Ken Singleton.
55. Sal Bando.
56. Jim Fregosi.
57. Jack Quinn
58. Tony Mullane
59. Rollie Fingers. Add 1/3 of his saves and he becomes 228-118 or thereabouts, but on my adjustment (add 50% and subtract 5 ERA+ points) he goes to 2550/114, which isn’t enough.
60. Ron Cey 1868 hits at 121. TB+BB/PA.503 TB+BB/Outs.746 On, but not close. Not as good as Madlock.
61. Pie Traynor
62. Jim McCormick
63. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
64. Joe Judge
65. Edd Roush Same quality as Beckley but less valuable defensive position and 20% shorter career. Yes, he’s good, but Beckley’s a lot better.
66. Spotswood Poles.
67. Larry Doyle
68. Curt Simmons
69. Roger Bresnahan.
70. Waite Hoyt.
71. Harry Hooper.
72. Vada Pinson
73. Gil Hodges
74. Jules Thomas.
75. Rico Carty.
76. Wilbur Cooper
77. Bruce Petway.
78. Jack Clements
79. Graig Nettles. On consideration set but way off ballot. Medium career, not that good – always hated him when he was a Yankee, too. TB+BB/PA .476, TB+BB/Outs .686.
80. Bill Monroe
81. Herb Pennock
82. Chief Bender
83. Ed Konetchy
84. Al Oliver
85. Jesse Tannehill
86. Bobby Veach
87. Lave Cross
88. Tommy Leach.
89. Tom York

Three Top 10 off my consideration set:

Fox is Rabbit Maranville again, off my ballot with OPS+ well under 100 – I think the old-timers overrated the importance of SS fielding, and underrated the possibility of getting a SS who could hit.

Wynn not nearly good enough a hitter; think we’re giving an excessive CF premium compared to other OF positions.

Keller’s a hitting Dizzy Dean; all peak but very short career (missed 1 ½ years for war, but even with them would be under 1400 hits)

Sorry, typo, Lombardi should be 13 not 12.

Sorry, typo, Lombardi should be 13 not 12.

Huh? Want to try fixing that again? (Best guess: Lombardi is 9, Schang is 12, F. Howard is 13.)

1994 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Phil Niekro. 20.8 pWS/300IP, 6 CY, 14 AS. Easy #1.

2. Ted Simmons 17.5 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 13 AS. Clear HOM in my book.

3. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined.

4. Pete Browning. 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

5. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. Soon to get eclipsed by a boatload of HOM 3B.

6. Roger Bresnahan. 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

7. Hugh Duffy. 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

8. George Van Haltren. 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

9. Tommy Leach. 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

10. Bill Monroe. The ultimate overlooked candidate.

11. Luis Tiant. 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

12. Vic Willis. 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

13. Lou Brock. - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career sounds pretty good to me.

14. Charlie Keller. 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit.

15. Jimmy Wynn. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone.

16. Ben Taylor. I think Ben was a bit better than Jake.

17. Jake Beckley. 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

18. Larry Doyle. 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

19. Don Sutton. 18.1 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 9 AS. No pitcher has more AS (~ top 14) seasons without having at least one CY (~top 4) season. The only one who is tied is Dennis Martinez. Dutch Leonard II and Larry French both had 0 CY, 8 AS. Here is a true Jake Beckley of pitchers.

20. Quincy Trouppe. May be elected before I put him on my ballot.

OTHER NEAR-MISSES/NEWBIES/LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

C. Wally Schang. 19.8 bWS/700 PA, 0 MVP, 11 AS.

1B. Orlando Cepeda. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

2B. Nellie Fox. 13.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. I like Doyle and Monroe better. Fox wouldn’t be a horrible selection.

3B. Pie Traynor. 16.2 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS.

3B. Graig Nettles. 15.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. Nettles definitely has the fielding, but I thought he’d have a bit more batting strength.

SS. Herman Long. 13.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Dave Concepcion. 10.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 9 AS. All fielding, all the time. I like Bancroft, Rizzuto, Tinker and Long better among fielding SS.

LF. George J. Burns. 20.5 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS.

LF. Bob Johnson. 21.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 12 AS.

LF. Jose Cruz. 20.5 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. Much closer than I thought.

CF. Roy Thomas. 23.0 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS.

CF. Edd Roush – 21.9 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. I’m not giving holdout credit.

RF. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS.

RF. Ken Singleton. 22.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS.

SP. Urban Shocker. 24.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 7 AS.

SP. Wilbur Cooper. 22.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Eddie Rommel. 24.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Bucky Walters. 22.6 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS.

SP. Dizzy Dean. 27.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 6 AS.

SP. Mel Harder. 20.5 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 5 AS.

SP. Ron Guidry. 21.9 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 6 AS. One or two good late ‘80s season away from the HOM.

RP. John Hiller. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 5 AS.

RP. Sparky Lyle. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 4 AS.

RP. Rollie Fingers – 33.0 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 4 AS. Why is he so much better than in the voting than Hiller and Lyle?

RP. Bruce Sutter. 48.2 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 4 AS. When he was good, he was very, very good, when he was bad, he was awful. The pWS numbers are obviously inflated, but are better than all of his contemporaries, including Quisenberry (45.0) and Gossage (36.9). Of course, Gossage had a decline phase.

RP. Gene Garber. 31.5 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 2 AS. Career numbers are similar to Sutter, but the peaks are light-years apart.

John Murphy - I imagine your comment on Sutton and any other newly eligibles is on the discussion thread, but why not add it here for posterity?

1994 Ballot
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. I have just realized that my system did not fully appreciate the value accrued by being average (a lot is made up that way). I have reevaluated that aspect a bit and there are changes across the board. Many of the changes took place well off ballot and aren't worth detailing, but a few took place within the top 15. Gavvy Cravath, a longtime member of my PHOM drops a few notches. He still makes the top-15, but not by nearly as much. Edd Roush moves up a few spots. Charley Jones and Bob Johnson rocket upwards in light of their production while being fairly durable. They move right to the top of my personal backlog. Jones actually goes right into my PHOM (really - how could I have had Cravath, but not Jones?) He is joined by Bobby Grich and new-comer, Ted Simmons. I have Simmons just over Trouppe. They seem almost dead equal at first, but the extra certainty in Simmons' numbers (really, the lack thereof in those of Trouppe) force me to place Simmons just ahead of Quincey.
Other newbies - Ron Guidry, Bruce Sutter - my kind of pitcher. I suspect their placements (23 & 21, respectively) will be higher than most of you. I can live with that. Amazing at their peaks.
Don Sutter - The new Beckley style pitcher. Having a somewhat peak helps him, but not enough at this time. I've slotted him in at 36th for now. Right between Newcombe and Tiant. Looks fair.
Graig Nettles - 57th. In a glut of backlog 3B. He's got the best glove, not so much with the bat. I may need to reevaluate how I view 3B as a category. That will have to wait until next week.
Dave Concepcion - 7th among eligible shortstops for my money. That is around the 100 range overall.
Cruz, Baylor - Pass.
Pete Browning and Charlie Keller take big hits this week - I realize how much they lacked in-season durability - maybe we should ask ourselves - is it easier for a good hitter to put up higher rates when not playing every day? Same with pitchers. We know that releivers have higher rates and we seem to agree that it is at least partially a result of not pitching as much as starters. So why not take this into account when looking at those hitters who have enormous rate numbers but weren't playing every day. As a side note, I think that Edd Roush played close enough to every day to justify the faith in his rates.


1)Phil Niekro - He and Carlton are so, so close for me. The careers are virtually even, Niekro has a better prime, Carlton, the peak years. It's a crap shoot, and I'll stand by this placement. (PHOM)
2)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
3)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
4)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. Even when he was missing time, he wasn't missing all that much. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
5)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
6)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
7)Ted Simmons - I had no idea, really. His defense seems about on par with Quincey's. Looks to have been a better hitter. I also have a but more confidence in his numbers. (PHOM)
8)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week. (PHOM)
((8a)Bobby Grich - A very good 2B. I prefer Fox's longevity to Grich's uberstats. That said, Grich is unquestionably a HOMer.)) (PHOM)
9)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations. (PHOM)
10)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit. That said, even with the partial credit I am giving him (2 full years), I now see that he was rather durable in season, and he seems to have been a solid defender. (PHOM)
11)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
12)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
((12a)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.))
13)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable.
((13a)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))
14)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
((14a)Willie Stargell - His particular career has proven to be a real challenge to my system. I think this will be among his lower rankings. But if I didn't jump all over Billy Williams, then Willie can only be here.))
15)Orlando Cepeda
((15a)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.))

16)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarilites between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two. Career length is nice as well.
17)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
18)Wally Berger - super-underrated
19)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((19a)Juan Marichal))
20)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy.
21)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.
22)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
23)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily corrent to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
24)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
25)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((25a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((25b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers diferently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevent over the years.))
26)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled releiver system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
27)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
28)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
29)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves down this week as I make up for the error that counted his whole career as a CF.
30)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((30a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
((30b)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.))
31)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((31a)Cupid Childs))
32)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
33)Rollie Fingers - When he was on, forget about it. Unfortunately, I don't feel that he was on consistently enough to merit anything, much higher than this. It seems that his abundance of 15th place votes last year was a lot of voters hedging their bets.
34)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
35)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
36)Don Sutton - Had a peak, but not an exceptional one. His durability pushes him above Tiant.
37)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
38)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
39)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
40)Phil Rizzuto
41)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
42)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
43)Jimmy Ryan
44)Cy Williams
45)Amos Otis - Forgot to include him last year. Very comparable to the next guy. Bat and glove trading off.
46)Jimmy Wynn - First I overrated him, like some of you (IMHO). Then I underrated him. I think this is more demonstrative of his true level. Impressive rates, nice gloveman. Not much else to set him apart.
47)Dolf Camilli
48)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
49)Tony Perez - This is THE Jake Beckley comp, in terms of overall level and value. Still, not my type.
50)Pete Browning - Moves down due to serious durability concerns.
51)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit. Too much 'what-if' to rank higher. I do not give minor league MLE credit for being blocked. Integration, yes. Non-MLB affiliation, yes. Having someone else the franchise liked better at the time above you, no. Finally, he had serious durability issues. Are high rate stats easier to maintain when not playing a full schedule. It would seem so. A very talented bat, nontheless.
52)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
53)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
54)George Kell
55)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
56)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
57)Graig Nettles - Among 3B, I figure he sits nicely here between Elliott and Bando. The better question to ask is if I am underrating 3B in general. I'll have to look into it a bit more later. Nettles is the best defensive 3B on my ballot. I think he was better than Boyer as well.
58)Sal Bando
59)Pie Traynor
60)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
61)Johnny Evers
62)Elston Howard
63)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
64)Bill Mazeroski
65)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
66)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
67)Vic Willis - A reaximantion of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
68)Thurmon Munson - see below.
69)Roger Bresnahan - Not like the two above or below, he is among those negatively affected by my new adjustments.
70)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
71)Johnny Pesky
72)Hippo Vaughn
73)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
74)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
75)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
76)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
77)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
78)Rocky Colavito
79)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
80)Denny Lyons
81)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
82)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
83)Rabbit Maranville

OCF quite right, sorry, Howard not Lombardi should be 13.

BTW - I forgot to bold his name, but Bob Johnson is lucky number 13 on my ballot.

1994 Ballot.

1. Phil Niekro (----, 2) RA+ Pythpat 334-266. The difference between Carlton and Niekro is Carlton's 1972. Given where I ranked him last year, an easy #1 for me this year.
2. Ted Simmons (new) Not an inner circle type, but a solid career as a catcher. A "line drive" hitter - high BA, medium power. After Gibson retired in 1975, the late-70's Cardinals had one Hall of Famer: Lou Brock. Now it looks like that team will have at least one HoMer, and a chance at a second - and it won't be Brock in either case. (Nor will it be the most entertaining member of the team, Al "The Mad Hungarian" Hrabosky.)
3. Don Sutton (new) RA+ Pythpat 320-267. Nolan Ryan without the no-hitters and the strikeout record. I understand why he's controversial, but I really don't have anyone else to put here.
4. Larry Doyle (5, 4, 2, 4, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. Some other voters' comments have portrayed him as not mediocre, but historically bad, a "statue." If so, why did the defense-obsessed writers vote him a Chalmers award? I tend to doubt that John McGraw would have put up with that bad a defensive liability.
5. Quincy Trouppe (6, 5, 3, 5, 6) More so even than most Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork. But I've been convinced for a while.
6. Jimmy Wynn (8, 7, 4, 6, 7) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
7. George Van Haltren (9, 8, 5, 7, 8) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
8. Tommy Bridges (11, 10, 6, 8, 9) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
9. Bucky Walters (12, 11, 7, 9, 10) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
10. Orlando Cepeda (7, 6, 8, 10, 11) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
11. Norm Cash (10, 9, 9, 11, 12) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
12. Frank Howard (13, 12, 10, 12, 13) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
13. Lou Brock (15, 14, 13, 13, 14) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
14. Sal Bando (16, 15, 14, 14, 15) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
15. Bob Elliott (17, 16, 15, 15, 16) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
16. Tony Perez (---, 16, 17) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
17. Rusty Staub (--, 12, 17, 18) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time. Not Frank Howard's peak, but some peak anyway.
18. Luis Tiant (18, 17, 16, 18, 19) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value - and more reason for caution, as we try to figure out how many 70's pitchers are worthy.
19. Reggie Smith (19, 18, 17, 19, 20) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
20. Jake Beckley (20, 19, 18, 20, 21) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
21. Darrell Porter (----, 22) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
22. Graig Nettles (new) Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott.
23. Ken Singleton (-, 20, 19, 21, 23) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter. So he goes behind Smith. And as for that peak: I like Hondo's better.
24. Ron Cey (----, 24) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
25. Rollie Fingers (--, 20, 22, 25) I'll do a more extensive reevaluation when we get to Gossage.
26. Gene Tenace (21, 22, 21, 23, 26) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)
27. Dick Redding (22, 22, 22, 24, 27)
28. Luis Aparicio (23, 23, 23, 25, 28) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
29. Bobby Bonds (24, 24, 24, 26, 29) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
30. Hugh Duffy (25, 25, 25, 27, 30) Nothing new to say after all these years.

Maranville, Vernon and Fox just slipped out of my top 30. Roush would be #35 or 36, after Rizzuto. Both Roush and Keller have playing time issues.

Dave Concepcion: A career candidate in the Aparicio/Maranville mode - his glove as his top attribute, a pretty good hitter for a SS in his prime (although there are a lot of non-prime years burdening his offensive value). Might be #31.

Jose Cruz: a fine player, better than many who were more famous. Not far from my top 30 - I should decide whether or not I'd take him over Roush.

Bruce Sutter: my ranking of relief pitchers is less settled than any other aspect of my system. But I am confident that he ranks behind Fingers.

Ron Guidry: RA+ Pythpat 158-108. Compare Vida Blue at 202-169. For one year, he was as good as anyone.

A lot of Cardinals on this year's list: Simmons, Cruz, Hendrick, Sutter, Mumphrey, even Bob Horner (although Bill James pegged the signing of Horner as an indication that Whitey was no longer calling the shots and that his days were numbered.)

(1) Niekro (3rd)--Wildly underrated. Somewhere around the 100th best player of All-Time.

(2) Keller (5th)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). Played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up. With appropriate credits has an 8 year-run at the level that guys like Kiner and Berger, only reached for 4 or 5.

(3) Simmons (new)--One of only three catchers with ten straight 20 WS seasons. Lack of a great peak drops him to about the 40th percentile among HoMers, but he's still well over the line.

(4) Roush (6th)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except the new guys and the third basemen. A star in his own time--a decent fielding CF always near the league lead in OPS.

(5) Don Sutton (new)--I agree with those who say that he benefits from appearing after we've elected most of the obvious guys. I think he is a genuine peer of the long career, low peak pitchers we spent decades struggling over but finally elected. Substantially better than John and Tiant; miles better than Kaat.

(6) Bob Johnson (7th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position.

(7) Bridges (8th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity.

(8) Cash (9th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot.

(9) Trouppe (10th)--Jumped back onto the ballot after I decided to treat him like a pre-Negro League candidate and focus on his demonstrated skills rather than his MLE's. The biggest surprise of this whole project.

(10) Wynn (11th)--Seven or eight top half of the HoM-type seasons sprinkled among a bunch of clunkers.

(11) Leach (12th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. Downgraded the value of his CF seasons a tad last week.

(12) Elliot (13th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer.

(13) Oms (14th)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up.

(14) Cravath (15th)--I've got no problem giving minor league credit and that brings him on ballot. Looking at the total package he offered, however, my personal jury is still out. A great hitter, but so where Jones, Browning, Fournier, Tiernan, Frank Howard, etc. He feels like one of those. Career length comparison to those others gets him on the ballot, but it is tenuous.

(15) Jack Beckley (nr/16th)--Like Rusty Staub or Tony Perez, only with much less competition at his position. A truly borderline HoMer, but a deserving one.

Reggie Smith, Urban Shocker, Rollie Fingers, France Chance, and Tony Perez are the next five. It think all five are worthy HoMers.

Nellie Fox is an ok candidate; I just prefer my middle infielders hit a bit more. I have him 43rd.

Fingers is--as noted above--right in the mix.

Nettles had his defensive and offensive peaks at different times, lost his defense at a young age, and didn't have much of an OBP. He's not a bad candidate, but is waiting in the 30's, behind both Perez and Cey, and right around Bando.

Concepcion is hard to place--for now he's clearly behind Rizutto, Bancroft, and Stephens, somewhere around Fregosi, Long, and Tinker. That puts him about 65 ot 70.

Sutter is substantially behind Fingers but hard to rank until we see more modern relievers--he might be number 25 and might be number 125.

Cruz and Guidry were good players but are nowhere near the HoM--Cruz is around 80 and Guidry is about 110.

Don Baylor and the rest don't even register.

I totally overhauled my system, finally. I'm now 100% over to the Keltner-based system, no more interval-based system. Negro Leaguers aren't yet in my system, but I'm doing the leg work to get them in. It'll be a long process because I'm trying to hone some of the information I've used in the past to create better projections for Mexico and other places (like getting super rudimentary PFs for MxL teams.) But that's very much in the distance at this juncture.

1994
Rank : Name : Un(mentally)adjusted Rank at Position : Keltner Points*
(*Points for pitchers aren't exactly the same as for hitters, so I'm guesstimating them; also to even off the pitcher and hitter rankings, I just divide pitchers rankings by three.)

1. Phil Niekro (t~4th) 67 pts: An easy number one on this particular ballot.

2. Ted Simmons (9th) 36 pts: Highest ranking position player at his position, among eligibles. He’s an easy HOMer for me, even if his defense wasn’t superb.

3. Quincy Trouppe (high, around Ted Simmons) ?? pts: Trouppe’s the best catcher available. We’re beginning to find more consensus on this guy, and I hope he’s inducted before 2007. His case seems pretty damned solid to me, and while he’s missing documentation of several years at the beginning of his career, we know that
a) he was playing
b) he was good

So what’s the issue? How’s it different than, say war credit? Not too much different. See my comments in the New Eligibles thread (around #865) for more details.

4. Edd Roush (t10th) 43 pts: He and Duffy score the same in this system, and they are right in the middle of the HOM-level pack of CFs. This rating only includes holdout credit tangentially as a tie-breaker between Edd and Hugh.

5. Hugh Duffy (t10th) 43 pts: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a solid selection.

6. Wilbur Cooper (10th) ~45 pts: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

7. Larry Doyle (11th) 39 pts: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

8. Tommy Leach (11th combo CF and 3B) 38 pts: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

9. Ken Singleton (12th) 42 pts: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons. I’m becoming more comfortable with the conclusions of my Keltner-based system, and this vote is reflective of that.

10. Sal Bando (11th) 35 pts: There’s evidence on all sides here. Some evidence suggests that Bando is obviously inferior to Boyer and maybe to Elliott. Some of that evidence, however, is based in WARP, and given some of the discussion going on lately about it, I’m really down on it as a useful information source, and we already know it has issues with replacement for fielding that may or may not skew its findings. And anyway, is FRAA bulletproof either? I don’t know. Of course other evidence doesn’t include the DH factor.

But there’s very strong evidence in Bando’s favor compared to those other guys. Namely that he, unlike they, was at some point arguably the best player in his league (early 70s), and that he dominated his position for a long period of time. Now we often reflect on the fact that the AL before and somewhat during Bando was a wasteland for 3B, but that misses the point that

a) the same is true for Brooks, who easily won election with a weaker peak/prime
b) the same would be true for other pet 3B candidates like Pie Traynor
c) the same is true for Elliott whose main competition was the very good but not durable Whitey
Kurowski, the good not great P.H. Jones, the WW2 portion of Stan Hack’s career, and a sliver of Eddie Mathews
d) there’s room for all of them.

Now, I’ll grant, I’m a WS voter. Boyer and Bando look very similar, but WS sees what I see: more dominance at the peak end for Bando. So that’s where my vote is going.

11. Bucky Walters (12th) ~41 pts: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

12. Pete Browning (12th) 38 pts: Fabulous hitter. True he benefited from weak competition in the early AA, but also true that he hit great in the PL and early 90s NL. I’m comfortable that he was a sufficiently good enough hitter to have a ballot spot near the other CFs, and even after adjusting his stats to reflect QoP, this system likes him a lot. A little less than before, but a lot nonetheless.

13. Charley Jones (?) 28 pts: I figured with all kinds of adjustments and stuff that Charley would bound up my rankings. He didn't. He's just below the "in" line. But the missed time is likely disruptive enough to Jones's evaluation in my system that it is creating a ranking that is simply too low. That's why we draw up ballots because there is subjective stuff that's important to comparing players to one another. I believe he's a HOMer, but I can't go off all half-cocked and stick him at number 6 when my system has him well off the ballot. Othwerise, why have a system? This placement is designed to support him but to give me more time to think about how much support he merits in the crowded LF backlog, viz how badly the system is being fooled by the missing time.

14. Herman Long (12) 36 pts: Highest rated shortstop out there; I’ve never quite understood why he’s not in the same discussion as Bancroft and Sewell.

15. Elston Howard (14+) 27+pts: The +es indicate that the system hasn’t yet accounted for his NgL credit in a systematic way. That’s on the way, as part of a very large project I’m working on, the first phase of which is the MxL stuff I’ve mentioned previously. Given that I’ve been at that nearly a month and still only have a few years of park factors so far, I hope to finish up sometime before we run out of time.

NEW GUYS
Don Sutton (~21st) 27 pts: No surprise here, right? Beckley, a similar low and slow candidate, is a little below my in/out line, and Sutton has a Beckleyesque career. He’s also the perfect storm for his type of candidate: a durable pitcher throwing nearly all his innings in very low-run environs. If he’d pitched in Fenway, would he be a great candidate? I don’t know, but I suspect he’d have won many fewer and thrown many fewer 200 inning seasons. All this aside, Sutton’s very close to my in/out line, and he wouldn’t be a disaster electee to my mind. He just didn’t dominate at all, and that’s the difference between him getting on my ballot and not.

Bruce Sutter (2nd among relievers) 42 pts: I was making a lot noises about Sutter before, and he’s near my ballot. I like relievers with peak, and he’s absolutely got one. Why does my system love him? Several years as a legit CYA candidate; often the best multi-year reliever in his league; several All-Star years. That’s the whole thing. But I don’t trust my system on relievers---I think it overrates them. I’m beginning to feel that the number of relievers should be about three. It’s just a gut thing.

Graig Nettles (19th) 29 pts: A little better than Cey, not much. I like him a lot more than Boyer, though.

Dave Concepcion (27th) 20 pts: Just below the line, very close. All his value is on being tops at position (either over time or as an All-Star), but he has little other surrounding value in my system. Joe Sewell has been oft-cited as the guy who most benefited from weak positional competition, but I think that’s more true of Concepcion. Sewell has other markers that Concepcion just doesn’t. Maybe it’s really a matter of his league? Maybe in the 1970s AL Davey would have been a semi-regular MVP? But that’s not where he played, and his value in the NL was that of a frequent All-Star but not more.

Jose Cruz: As I mentioned in his thread, he’s right around Veach and York and Rice. Wonderful player, too bad the Cards didn’t know what to do with him.

Ron Guidry: The Gator was one of the Yankees I grew up with, but boy did he fall apart kind of quick. One tremendous year though.

With the nickname Gator, Guidry is a member of the All-Meteorologically Monikered Team
C: Charley Snow
1B: J.T. Snow
2B: Tim Flood
SS: Larry Raines
3B: Gene Freese
RF: Roy Weatherly
CF: Curt Flood
LF: Tim Raines
DH: Gerald “Ice” Williams
SP: Amos “The Hoosier Thunderbolt” Rusie
SP: Ron “Louisiana Lightning” Guidry
SP: Storm Davis
SP: Ken Cloude
SP: Josh Fogg
RP: Steve Rain
RP: Chuck Rainey

Don Baylor: Plunk!

TOP-TENS
-Nellie Fox (15th) 32 pts: Just off my ballot, a very solid HOM citizen some day.
-Jimmy Wynn (17th) 31 pts: Just off my ballot, a very solid HOM citizen some day.
-Charlie Keller (24th) 22 pts: Ranking includes war credit. He's just far enough off that 1+ season of war credit doesn't push his profile over the in/out line the way it might for Jones who came out extremely close to the in/out.
-Rollie Fingers (5th among RP) 26 pts: I think we'll be overpopulating RP if we choose Fingers and Gossage from their era.

Eric, Denton T. "Cyclone" Young belongs on that team.

Technically "Dewey" Evans could make the list, but it would be a shame to knock "Stormy" Roy Weatherly off the lineup. :-)

PHoM: Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, Ted Simmons

1. Phil Niekro, P (4). Some very solid peak years between 1974 and 1979, a long prime and great career numbers. Not quite in the Seaver/Carlton camp but well above the rest of the eligible candidates.

2. Don Sutton, P (n/e). Doesn't have Niekro's peak though one could argue that Sutton had a longer prime. Also not in the Seaver/Carlton camp but clearly ahead of John, Kaat and Tiant.

3. Ted Simmons, C (n/e). I originally had him slotted much lower but the discussion of the last two weeks convinced me that I was significantly underrating him.

4. Nellie Fox, 2B (5). The best second baseman on the board.

5. Quincy Trouppe, C (6). Deserving of election.

6. Dick Redding, P (7). The best of the backlog at his position.

7. Lou Brock, LF (8). Never the best, but better than most for a long time.

8. Alejandro Oms, CF (9). An underrated Cuban star.

9. Burleigh Grimes, P (10). Great career numbers and enough of a peak that he's a better all-around candidate than Mickey Welch.

10. Hugh Duffy, CF (11). The next in line to go into my Personal Hall of Merit.

11. Don Newcombe, P (12). A deserving candidate whose peak is obscured by military service and whose early career is obscured by integration.

12. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (13). Has the career numbers that Chance is missing and the peak years that Beckley lacks. The best first baseman on the ballot.

13. Luis Aparicio, SS (14). The best shortstop of his generation.

14. Rollie Fingers, RP (15). Not at the top of the reliever pyramid but he's clearly in the second layer and that'll probably be good enough to merit induction into my PHoM before too long.

15. Jake Beckley, 1B (n/a). Back on the ballot thanks to the best career numbers of any eligible batter.

necessary disclosures:
Jimmy Wynn: not good enough for not long enough
Edd Roush: Could be on my ballot in a couple of elections depending on the outcome of a planned comparison between him and Browning.
Charlie Keller: not good enough for not long enough

new eligibles:
Graig Nettles: I prefer both Bando and Cey yet neither of them made my ballot
Bruce Sutter: not quite as good as Fingers and he's only at 14

I’m a peak voter. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

A bunch of small changes this time around, as I continue to attempt to sort out the players in the 20-30 range so that the eventual pHOMing of the guys at that level is sure to make sense. I’ve also started to adjust my system to take an approach more like jschmeagol’s, with extended primes above a certain level getting more value that I’d been giving them before. That all resulted in a few small drops (Bresnahan, Chance, Cicotte, among others) and leaps (Trouppe, Billy Williams, Minoso, among others), but nothing too dramatic.

pHOM: Simmons, Grich, Billy Williams

1994 ballot:

1. Phil Niekro (pHOM 1993). Clearly he was underrated because he didn't "challenge" hitters—no Cy Youngs is just absurd—but even I had no idea by how much. He's got an excellent peak, and his innings-eating capacity made him uniquely valuable to his teams. Much more of a no-brainer HOFer than I ever realized.

2. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me.

3. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). First the ultimate peakster pitcher, then the ultimate peakster hitter. With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s very close to Kiner.

4. Ted Simmons (pHOM 1994). Another of the incredibly underrated players of this era (I underrated him myself, at the time—then again, I was about 10 years old). Easily makes the bottom-third tier of HOM catchers; it’s amazing that someone whose record compares with that of Bill Dickey got no HOF support to speak of. The time spent at positions other than catcher is a slight demerit, but Simmons is clearly worthy.

5. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

[5a. Bobby Grich (pHOM 1994). Definitely worthy…he finally gets in after the mini crunch of recent elections. Another member of the all-underrated club of the ’70s and ’80s.]

6. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. Excellent peak.

7. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

8. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). A great deal of his record is lost in the haze of the leagues he played in, but he appears to me to have been among the worthy catchers we've seen. The more that haze begins to dissipate, the clearer it is he belongs; as I grow more confident about this, I keeping moving him up.

9. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me.

10. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

11. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluate outfielders, he does a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for.

12. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). No, he wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years to get my vote.

13. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). As with Browning, his numbers are covered in the AA mist, but I’m convinced he played at a high enough level long enough for induction.

14. Nellie Fox (pHOM 1986). The offensive peak leaves a little to be desired, but the defense more than makes up for that, especially at this position.

15. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. (I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats.) The reassessment this time drops him a bit—the peak is short, even shorter than Dean’s—but not immensely.

16-20: Roush (1988), Gomez (1987), J. Wynn (1987), [Billy Williams (1994)], Walters (1968), Duffy (1930)
21-25: Doyle, [Lyons], McGraw, Redding, Oms, F. Howard
26-30: Pesky, H. Smith, Fingers, Singleton, Trout
31-35: [Minoso], Bresnahan (1973), Nettles, Chance, Bando, [Boyer], Joss
36-40: D. Sutton, Berger, Sutter, [Reese], H. Wilson, [E. Wynn], M. Marshall
41-45: Leach, McCormick, Elliott, Cepeda, Munson
46-50: Burns, T. Perez, J. Ryan, Rizzuto, Bobby Bonds

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•J. Wynn. Not among my top unelected choices, but a very strong candidate, with a peak that surprised me. He’s in my pHOM now, and, at #18, not too far off ballot.

•Roush. Also in my pHOM, and just barely off ballot now, at #16. Should be getting his first-ever vote from me any day now.

•Fingers. A tough nut to crack, but in the end I feel he doesn’t quite have the peak I’m looking for. All the other factors pump up his standing, though, and he hovers right near the eventual in/out line for my pHOM. He’s at #28 right now.

•Nettles. My favorite player when I was a kid. The defense gets him on the radar, but it’s not enough to get him on ballot for me. He’s in the middle ground at present, debuting at #32.

•Sutton. The voter I used to be would have dismissed him entirely, as he doesn’t have remotely the peak I look for. But I’ve come around to the career-value argument to some extent, at least, and I’ve changed my system to reflect that. Even so, he only gets to #36 for his first time out; it’s unclear whether he’ll make my pHOM eventually or not. That seems fair enough, since after evaluating him I’m still not certain he’s more than HoVG.

•Concepcion. As with Nettles, I’m willing to give a big boost for defensive brilliance. But overall this guy looks like Phil Rizzuto without the peak offensive seasons, and I have Scooter down at #49. So with apologies to Joe Morgan, I have to start Davey off considerably lower.

•Cruz. Underrated, certainly, but there’s not enough there to get into my top 50 either. Seems a very similar player to Roy White, including the underrated part in both cases.

•Guidry. Another childhood favorite, but he appears to be the Norm Cash of pitchers—he’s got 1978 and then a bunch of pretty good years (actually, not even so many of them). Not terribly close.

•Baylor. Some nice years, but I can’t see it.

1. Phil Niekro

2. Ted Simmons: Lost out on a lot of notoriety because Bench was around.

3. Don Sutton: Took full advantage of conditions that favored him. I can’t fault him for that

4. Lou Brock: Perhaps the worst of the 3000 hit club, but still a member. He has trouble moving higher with me partly because the “most similar players by age” includes Grissom and Claudell Washington.

5. Tony Oliva: Did enough that I don’t need the filler seasons to build my opinion of him.

6. Jimmy Wynn: Six seasons with an OPS+ of 140 or greater.

7. Rollie Fingers: To the extent relievers can be let in the door, he’s as good as the next guy.

8. Orlando Cepeda: Had one foot in the door before he was 26. He won an MVP after that.

9. Left Gomez: 125 career ERA+, 87 games over .500, consistent all-star.

10. Carl Mays: 81 games over .500 and a career 119 ERA+. B-R says he is the cousin of Joe Mays.

11. Nellie Fox: Did quite well in the MVP voting in a sluggers era. I’m short on middle infielders.

12. Dizzy Dean: Had a few more top flight years than McLain but not as many as Koufax. 2.60 MVP shares.

13. Indian Bob Johnson: .296/.393/.506

14. Norm Cash: Durability is a concern, resulting in a “career length” issue. Otherwise, he ranks much higher

15. Luis Tiant: Two-time ERA+ leader and four-time twenty game winner


I left Browning off my ballot because I am unsure of the level of competition. Beckley took a fall with me when I compared him with Staub. I’m not sold on Keller because of his career length (Dean had a higher peak and was a pitcher). I go back and forth on Roush because I would like a little more power from a player of his era. I like Trouppe, but don’t feel like bumping any of these guys on his behalf. R. Smith, Rusty, Singleton are in the running but when guys start looking interchangeable, then I have to question whether they are legitimate HOM contenders.

John Murphy - I imagine your comment on Sutton and any other newly eligibles is on the discussion thread, but why not add it here for posterity?

Didn't you see it in post #2, Mike? I guess you just missed it. ;-)

Indian Bob Johnson: .296/.393/.506

Chuck Klein: .320/.379/.543

Same OPS+ (138 to 137). Klein has fewer games, but he didn't play during the war.

Lastings Milledge,

Speaking of interchangeable players, what does Tony Oliva have that Ken Singleton and Bobby Bonds don't? Or Jimmy Wynn for that matter?

You rank Oliva ahead of Wynn, but he 1) has fewer seasons at OPS+ 140 or greater, 2) played a less important defensive position, and 3) had notably fewer good seasons altogether. From a pure peak perspective, this last point might be dismissed, but how can you construct an argument that Oliva was better than Wynn, much less Singleton and Bonds?

1. Phil Niekro - I was a little harsh on him last year and he moves up some this year.

2. Rollie Fingers - Not as good as Wilhelm, but the 2nd most deserving closer so far IMO. And just like sunnyday2 said "there’s no uber-stat that says Fingers is ballot-worthy, but I go back to Chris Cobb’s old test—who do you want in the HoM? And on that simple basis, subjective as it is, I want the #3 reliever of all-time in our knowledge base through 1991."

3. Charley Jones - I give him credit for blacklisted years. He dominated when he played, and he would've dominated during his missed years. He's probably a lost cause and will never gain HOM election, but I just can't justify having him or Cravath any lower.
4. Gavvy Cravath - He hit for all sorts of power. Sure he took advantage of a hitters park, but I saw good for him for doing it. He did better than his teammates were doing in the park.

5. Don Sutton - Similar to Rixey and Wynn people say? Sounds good to me.

6. Edd Roush - I give him credit for 1930

7. Ted Simmons - SUPER huge mistake by the HOF voters for not electing him. Even though he's not higher on my ballot, I truly hope he makes the HOM this year.

8. Quincey Trouppe - I looked at him a little longer and harder he moves up a little in my system this year

9. Nellie Fox - plenty of career value for my liking

10. Orlando Cepeda - Never great, but very very good for a long time

11. Cecil Travis - WWII credit obviously

12. Bucky Walters - still suprised he makes my ballot

13. Tony Oliva - see Cepeda

14. Don Newcombe - with war credit and maybe even a smidge of NeL credit, he has outstanding career value

15. Bruce Sutter - I really thought I'd have him ranked in the top 10 at first, but he simply lacks the career value that I need to move him higher. His good peak and my love for the reliever gets him this high.

the rest of my ballot in order goes like this.
Vern Stephens
Elston Howard - I don't feel I was giving proper credit for NeL play and times missed for the Korean War. He makes a huge move up my ballot.
Chuck Klein
Bobby Veach
Jack Quinn
Ernie Lombardi
Lefty Gomez
Johnny Pesky
Roger Bresnahan
Charlie Keller
Rocky Colavito
Dolf Luque
Hack Wilson
Hugh Duffy
Thurman Munson
Jake Beckley
Levi Meyerle
Burleigh Grimes
Carl Mays
George Foster
Larry Doyle
Dizzy Dean
Frank Howard
Pete Browning
Bob Elliot
Tommy Bridges
Ron Guidry
Wally Schang
David Orr
Johnny Sain
Bob Johnson
Fred Dunlap
Addie Joss
Lave Cross
Duke Farrell
Luis Aparicio
John McGraw
Harvey Kuenn
Walker Cooper
Stu Miller
Lon Warneke
Norm Cash
Heinie Manush
Catfish Hunter
Mike Marshall
Al Rosen
Vic Willis
Gene Tenace
Deacon McGuire
Herman Long
Urban Shocker
Ed Williamson
Al Oliver
Sam Rice
Tony Perez
Steve Garvey
Mike Tiernan
Ginger Beaumont
Lou Brock
Jim McCormick
Tommy Bond
Dom DiMaggio
George Kell
Pie Traynor
Mickey Welch
Tommy Henrich
Henry Larkin
Ed Konetchy
Mickey Vernon
Reggie Smith
Kiki Cuyler
Ron Cey
Ed Yost
Rusty Staub
Gus Weyhing
Jimmy Ryan
Gil Hodges
Bobby Murcer
Sparky Lyle
Eddie Cicotte
Tommy Leach
Stuffy McInnis
Lefty O'Doul
Charley Root
Jack Daubert
Buddy Lewis
Dave Bancroft
Lloyd Waner
Jack Chesbro
Herb Pennock
Vada Pinson
Wilbur Cooper
Tony Lazzeri
Vida Blue
Ken Singleton
Tony Mullane
Luis Tiant
Roy Thomas
Jim Kaat
Denny McClain
Phil Rizzuto
Claude Passeau
Wilbur Wood
Rabbit Maranville
Dizzy Trout
Joe Wood
Sal Bando
Mel Harder
George Van Haltren
Bobby Bonds
Boog Powell
Tom York
Dave Kingman
Mike Cuellar
Jimmy Wynn
Deacon Phillippe
Dick Bartell
Lee May
Wally Berger
Freddie Fitzsimmons
Rube Marquard
Virgil Trucks
Graig Nettles
Milt Pappas
Mickey Lolich
Jerry Koosman
Dave McNally
Amos Otis
Roger Maris
Jesse Tannehill
Johnny Vander Meer
Sad Sam Jones
Jack Powell
Bert Campaneris
Dave Concepcion
Nap Rucker
Don Baylor
Jose Cruz
Baby Doll Jacobson
Hal Schumacher
Earl Whitehill
Tug McGraw
Joe Judge
John Hiller

Doc: You may be right.
The following MLE's for Indian Bob were from another thread - they may or may not be worth anything.

Year _Lg Age _G _PA _AB _R _H 2B 3B HR RB W AVG OBA SLG
1929 PCL 23 062 226 205 28 048 12 2 03 18 21 .234 .305 .356
1930 PCL 24 120 431 390 59 094 18 2 14 60 41 .241 .313 .405
1931 PCL 25 116 462 416 71 126 28 3 14 62 46 .303 .372 .486
1932 PCL 26 121 513 457 78 142 35 1 22 83 56 .311 .386 .536


CC: Oliva/Wynn is very close and I flip flopped the rankings a couple of months ago. I rank Oliva where I did because he was for a time very close to the top of the league. 1964-1971: AVG 1-1-2-8-3-3-3-1, Hits 1-1-1-8-NR-1-1-7 XBH 1-3-3-5-NR-5-3-5, TB 1-3-2-7-NR-4-2-5, Runs 1-2-2-NR-NR-9-8-NR, SLG% 3-5-6-9-5-NR-7-1, RC 1-1-3-6-10-8-6-4. I will admit to having cherry picked the statistics but you should grant me Oliva was at or near the top of a number of offensive categories over nearly a decade. I will also admit that things would have been muted in Houston.

Dave Kingman
Mike Cuellar
Jimmy Wynn

Ouch.

1994 ballot
Sutton, Madlock, and Steve Garvey make my PHOM this year



1. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
2. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
3. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
4. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
7. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
8. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
9. Phil Niekro to bad he played for the braves (made my personal HoM in 1993)
10. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
12. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
13. Don Sutton led in WHIP 4 times (makes my personal HoM this year)
14. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
15. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (makes my personal HoM this year)
16. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
17. Rollie Fingers best HoF speech ever (made my personal HoM in 1991)
18. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
20. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
21. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
22. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
23. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
24. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
25. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
26. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year (made my personal HoM in 1984)
29. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
35. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
36. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (makes my personal HoM this year)
37. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
38. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
39. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
40. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
41. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
42. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
43. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
44. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
45. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, and Trouppe barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Jimmy Wynn don’t buy the Houston logic
Charley Jones no black list points
Charle Keller I’m not giving him WWII or minor league credit of MVP seasons like others.

And where will yest's consensus score land this time? At least Niekro is on his ballot somewhere (as #9) and Sutton is #13. Yest - do you have any explanation for why you're not voting for Ted Simmons?

O, wow, you're askin' a guy whose ballot goes 45 deep with PHoM/not HoMies, why? Why?

It's just that I thought he might have liked Simmons (batted .300 seven times in his career, retired with a .285 career BA as a catcher.)

21)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.

Actually, I have Sutter very slightly ahead of Fingers right now.

1994 ballot, our (and my) 97th

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

I had last year's electees Rose-Carlton-Jackson at 4-1-2 on my ballot. An unusually high number of my old-time favorites have been elected, so modern candidates will tend to do well on my ballot from here on out.

1. PHIL NIEKRO - I had him just ahead of Rose last year. Almost identical career to Perry's, except Niekro's best 2 were a little bit better. They're about even in durability, too. I do have to account for the unearned-run issue here, as the passed balls really were the result of Phil's knuckler. But overall, a very underrated career. Welcome to the HOM, Phil.
2. TED SIMMONS - Trying to be 2nd Simmmons elected.(this comment is from longer one on the Simmons thread) Thru 1983, Simmons was a career 125 OPS+ in 7244 AB. Torre was 129 OPS+ in 7874 AB for his whole career. So Simmons caught almost twice as many games as Torre, yet he was in the same league as Torre as a hitter.
Wow. He also was a significantly better than Freehan while playing more games at catcher, though he yields the points to Freehan for defense of course. No-doubt HOMer.
3. PETE BROWNING - I recently looked again at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This lousy fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not as much as some think; it was a different game then.

4. NELLIE FOX - Would be 2nd Fox(x). The best of an era at his position. But is this the Sewell argument all over again - one I ultimately found went against Sewell? Ultimately I like Fox better, and Sewell already is a HOMer. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great defensive 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. A lot more seasons than Sewell at middle infield, that helps, too.
5. ROLLIE FINGERS - (second 'finger' electee?) A devilish career to evaluate. So how does he wind up nearly atop my backlog again this year? He has many pluses: nine seasons with 100 relief IP (Rivera has one, as a setup man). He won about 100 games in relief not as a vulture, but as a guy pitching when it mattered most. For those dazzled by modern save totals, realize that Fingers was in the top 4 in his league in SVs 11 times (to 8 for Sutter and 7 for Rivera). Sutter pitched more than 107 IP once - Fingers did that 10 consecutive years. Sutter's peak is higher, for sure. But Fingers had a couple of other-worldly years, too. But most of all, what wins Fingers this slot is his inherited-runner numbers (and bonus World Series heroics). Fingers' teams just kept winning games he pitched for them - often he'd win himself, and often he'd save the day with runners on. In some way, I think Fingers was SO good in the 'clutch' for so long that it seems like he was not just getting lucky over and over again. Either way, the results were of immense value.
6. DON SUTTON - Trying to be 2nd Sutton elected. A peakier Eppa Rixey, and I liked Rixey. No problem with noting park help and era help and other things. But let's not overreact, either. 20 straight years of pretty good and occasionally great and nicely durable pitching. Belongs in a "big ten" HOM that has room for all kinds.
7. BOB JOHNSON - Would join Walter as a HOM Johnson. I really like this sort of consistency over a dozen strong years. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
8. JAKE BECKLEY - Ah, the great polarizer. I should note that this is not as much a "elect Beckley" play as a "hey, they're making me pick 15 people vote, and I don't like the other guys more."
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (though not as much as I used to think), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters. The biggest issue for him may be the 8 seasons in the 120s - I find that quite valuable given era and position; others do not.
9. QUINCY TROUPPE - Leaped onto my ballot for the first time ever a few years back, as I'm now starting to believe he wasn't just a durable, long-career catcher. A better hitter than I'd thought previously - he didn't always get to play against many HOMers, but stacked up nicely when he did.
10. BRUCE SUTTER - Didn't expect to vote for him, but he does throw 100 IP a year, not 75 - and that really adds value. Was only a monster K guy for half his career, made a nice adjustment thereafter to still be effective. I'll be happier if he has to wait a while, but I can't just withhold my vote til he does.
10. BOB ELLIOTT - Bob helps me from being TOO far ahead of the consensus pack, lol. If you haven't examined him in a while - or ever - get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B (Madlock had 5, Cey had 4)! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
11. EDD ROUSH - The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re WW I. Reggie Smith is an interesting comp. Lucky to be in the Hall of Fame, but too good for too long to avoid gaining his (second-ever?) spot on my ballot. Will hover up and down my bottom 5 slots I imagine.
12. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot.
13. CHARLIE KELLER - 4th time on my ballot. Poor man's Ralph Kiner, but even Kiner's election didn't quite get Keller onto my ballot for a long time. Of his six actual big seasons, one was a weakened 1943 and another is a slight issue, 1942. I don't mind bumping close guys up and in during the war, but the pct of extrapolation here has been a little too much for me.
14. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.


OF THE 10 TOP RETURNEES, DID NOT VOTE FOR:
JIMMY WYNN - Would be our 2nd Wynn. Wildly underrated by baseball fans, and threatens to be just as wildly overrated here. I almost like Reggie Smith better, and surely Johnson, and maybe Roush, Cravath, Keller were just as good or better. Still, the OPS+s are undeniable, and the fielding/position gives some boost. Has not yet reached my ballot, but might at some point if he's still around.

NEWBIES
DAVE CONCEPCION - Nellie Fox lite, may make it onto my ballot soon.
GRAIG NETTLES - Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78. Good chance to get onto the ballot.

OTHERS WHO JUST MISSED
BUCKY WALTERS - Slipped back off the ballot again after being on the last 2 years; very borderline. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from Welch on my ballot in certain years, but maybe not for good.
FRANK HOWARD - An astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons, too. Had five more solid ones as well; I think he had more impact even admitting the fielding demerits in relation to Wynn.
GAVY CRAVATH - 3rd time off my ballot in about 20 years, in reconsideration of Baker Bowl - sure he smartly took advantage, but others didn't have that opportunity. Still, I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd have been right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. Will return to my ballot.
THURMAN MUNSON - Don't overrate the "if only" bonus, because his career was near-done, especially as a catcher. But a very nice prime on some very good teams, and clearly he had a big part in that, also hit for a high avg in the postseason. Compares quite well with electee Freehan.
ELSTON HOWARD - I am troubled by the combo of shortened career plus durability issues, but I've decided he deserves more offbeat credit than Charley Jones does. Damn shame he caught in the wrong organization; not much reason for anyone to claim 'Yankee pride' when it comes to reviewing this case.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the innings usually just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.

dammit
I have 15, correctly, but note the corrected rank of guys 10-15:

10. BRUCE SUTTER - Didn't expect to vote for him, but he does throw 100 IP a year, not 75 - and

11. BOB ELLIOTT - Bob helps me from being TOO far ahead of the consensus pack, lol. If you

12. EDD ROUSH - The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re

13. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton,

14. CHARLIE KELLER - 4th time on my ballot. Poor man's Ralph Kiner, but even Kiner's election

15. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot

1994 Ballot

A very large number of serious candidates this year. Simmons, Sutton, Nettles, Sutter, Guidry, Concepcion, and Cruz all were outstanding players.

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments.

Since 1987, I have been more swayed in my subjective adjustments than I have in the past by issues of positional balance. That has become a second tie-breaking factor, along with peak talent, in arranging the candidates whom my system sees as just about equal. So I have brought more infielders on to my ballot.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Phil Niekro (4). % = 1.2422. #4 in 1993 but an easy #1 in 1994.
2. Ted Simmons (n/e). % = 1.2040. Hugely underrated. A great-hitting, decent-fielding catcher for a long time.
3. Don Sutton (n/e). % = 1.1016. The weakest of the 300-game winners of the 1970s, but still an obvious HoMer, 5% ahead of the best of the backlog.
4. Quincy Trouppe (5). % = 1.0453. Discussion of the anecdotal record solidifies Trouppe’s case for me. I think he is disadvantaged in NeL lore because he was not slick behind the plate. The comment cited from one former NeL player that Trouppe was a great athlete who could have played other positions, but he was only an ok catcher strongly suggests that the oral history underrates Trouppe for the same reason it has overrated players like Oliver Marcelle and Judy Johnson.
5. Edd Roush (6). % = 1.0667. Arguments for credit for hold-out seasons were persuasive with me.
6. Charlie Keller (7). % = 1.0589. Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
7. Rollie Fingers (8) % = 1.0632. Fingers shows up comfortably above the in/out line in my system. He was not as lights-out as we have come to expect the modern closer to be, but he was still highly effective, extremely durable, and highly leveraged.
8. Dave Bancroft (9). % = 1.0476. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him. Someone asked how Nellie Fox was better than Bancroft. A pertinent question, since they were equal offensive players, and Bancroft was a top defender at a more important position. Fox definitely enjoys an edge in seasonal-durability, but I prefer Bancroft’s defensive edge.
9. Alejandro Oms (10) % = 1.0410. As in the case of Roush, I was wrong to be ignoring the evidence of his quality.
10. Tommy Leach (11). % = 1.0394. Outstanding player for a long time. Andrew Siegel’s brief analysis of his case is excellent.
11. Jimmy Wynn (12). % = 1.0386. Not the perfect candidate, but his peak is that bit better than the other medium career outfielders who are his near contemporaries, and his career stacks up well with theirs, also.
12. Jake Beckley (13). % = 1.0250. Staub’s record and his are not so different as to make it outrageous to look at them together, but Beckley’s defensive performance was consistently superior, giving him the edge over Le Grand Orange, who was never outstanding defensively, and who had very little defensive value at all over the second half of his career.
13. Rabbit Maranville (14) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study suggests I was overvaluing him, but he still has a strong career argument.
14. Bus Clarkson (15). % = 1.00. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him the edge over Perez.
15. Tony Perez (16). % = 1.0577. In a tightly bunched group of long career hitters with Beckley, Cash, and Staub, and also comparable to “prime” hitter candidates Wynn and. Bonds. Overall, he placed in the middle of this tightly bunched group. An excellent hitter for a few years, a very good hitter for many years. Helped by being a decent third baseman for a while, and being good defensively at first. (Win shares has him at B-, just above average, at each position. He never won a WS gold glove at first, but he was among the top 5 in fws at first every season during the 1970s.) It’s his defense, surprisingly enough, that pushes him ahead of Staub, who was a little better with the bat. It’s durability that pushes him ahead of Cash. His 12-year prime and Bonds’ 12-year prime were almost identical in value; Perez’s decline phase gives him the nod over Bonds. Win shares _hugely_ overrates this tail period, which is why I have adjusted him downward from his rank according to my system (I haven’t had time to make a comprehensive adjustment to the system yet). However, he did have some value, which is more than Bonds did when he wasn’t playing.

1994 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Bobby Bonds (17) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.
17. Charley Jones (18). % = 1.00. This year I prefer Bobby Bonds.
18. Luis Tiant (19). % = 1.0024. Best backlog starting pitcher available. I see him as having about the same overall value as Jim Bunning: a little less than Billy Pierce. His prime was broken up by arm injuries, but he was excellent on either side of his injury years. Much better than Hunter and Lolich. Worthy of election, but I’m not in any hurry to push his candidacy.
19. Norm Cash. (20) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Bonds on league-strength considerations.
20. Nellie Fox (21). % = 1.00. I thought he wasn’t going to make my ballot before he was elected. Now, maybe he will. Average bat, excellent glove, excellent durability at a position where durability was difficult make for an excellent second-base package, but it doesn’t match what Bancroft and Maranville have to offer.
21. Rusty Staub (22) % = 1.0457. My system argues for a higher placement than I have given Staub, but few players that I have ranked have added more career value in a series of below-average seasons, so I believe my system overrates him. He was legitimately outstanding during his peak in Montreal, however, so he should be in the mix. A career-slice approach suggests that the contemporary “bat” players to whom he is closest in value are Bonds and Norm Cash, so I am starting him just a little below the two of them. His profile is also a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, actually, which provides another justification for ranking him about here, just a half dozen spots ahead of the best outfielder from the 1890s still eligible.
22. Gavvy Cravath (23). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Slips a little bit as a result of recent discussions, which have made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia. I am therefore having a harder time seeing what makes him better than Bob Johnson.
23. Graig Nettles (n/e). % = 1.00. Great defender, decent hitter for a long time. Might deserve to rank higher or lower. The key comparisons are with Fox above and Cey below. My view right now is that both WARP and WS have replacement levels that are too low, so I am downgrading players whose strength is very heavily career-based, so I’m starting out conservatively with Nettles. As I discussed on the ballot thread, I’m concerned about the effects of expansion on the 1970s. Dan Rosenheck’s work suggests that there is an expansion bubble effect, so I have yet another reason to be conservative with Nettles.
24. Joe Tinker (24). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
25. Herman Long (25). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts.
26. Bob Johnson (26). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
27. Dom Dimaggio (27). % = 1.00. Likewise
28. Jimmy Ryan (28). % = 1.00. Likewise
29. Dick Redding (29). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Burleigh Grimes.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

30. Bill Monroe .9922
31. Don Newcombe .9886
32. Urban Shocker .9867
33. Burleigh Grimes .9845
34. George Burns .9879
35. Willie Davis .9896
36. Ron Cey .9800
37. Reggie Smith .9791
38. Ken Singleton .9780
39. Johnny Evers .9779
40. Fielder Jones .9778
41. Bruce Sutter (n/e) .9755 . Had three monster years, but his performance wasn’t strong enough or long enough in addition to those monster seasons to put him over the in-out line. He’s a notch above John Hiller, two notches above Tug McGraw, Mike Marshall, and Sparky Lyle, but well below Fingers, who was highly effective for much longer than Sutter was. Closer to the in-out line than I had expected.
42. Ron Guidry (n/e). .9735. Like Sutter in having a few (or one, but what a one!) monster years, but not having enough to go with them. Closer to the in-out line than I expected him to be, also.
43. Jim Kaat. .9725.
44. Lave Cross .9709
45. Hugh Duffy .9686
45. Johnny Pesky .9676
47. Ben Taylor .9667
48. Cy Seymour .9665
49. Dick Bartell .9653
50. George Van Haltren .9538
51. Larry Doyle .9614
52. Bobby Veach .9609
53. Buzz Arlett .9602
54. Vada Pinson .9599
Jose Cruz (n/e). .9587. A very solid performer for quite a long time. Very similar in value to George Foster and Cesar Cedeno, with a little less peak but more career.
55. Leroy Matlock .9544
56. Tommy Bond .9511

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Nellie Fox. See #20 above

Pete Browning. % = .8920. Yes, he was an outstanding hitter, but his eye-popping years were all in the weakest major leagues of all time (excepting the UA), he was not an asset on defense, he was not durable within seasons, and his career was short. He is not near my top 50 eligibles. My system sees him as having a case similar to Frank Howard and Rocky Colavito. They have arguments, but they are nevertheless clearly on the outside looking in.

Dick Redding. See #29 above.

New Arrivals worthy of note but not within 5% of the in-out line:

Dave Concepcion. .9407. The best NL shortstop of the 1970s. He looks like a HoMer according to WARP, near even in my system with Don Sutton. Win shares doesn’t agree, seeing him as comparable instead to Roy White and Steve Garvey. Splitting the difference doesn’t get him close to my ballot, and that’s what my system does, putting him a little bit above Cedeno and Cruz but a notch below Ken Singleton, who has attracted a bit of HoM support. I’m going to study the matter further, but Concepcion starts off just outside my top 56 eligibles.


Don Baylor. Solidly in the Hall of Very Good. Like Bill Madlock, he might have been close if he had been as good in the field as he was at the plate.

3. PETE BROWNING - I recently looked again at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems.

I recently looked again at Browning's career, including adjusting his AA seasons to National League equivalents, and posted the results here. They indicate that Browning followed a fairly typical aging pattern, with his peak seasons coming at ages 26 and 29.

Using Brent's numbers:

Browning 169 68 53 52 44 43 39 38 32 31
JimmWynn 167 57 51 46 43 41 37 33 16 08
BJohnson 159 55 47 43 41 35 34 30 29 29 27 25 12 10
EddRoush 159 53 48 47 43 41 34 24 24 23 08

That's deducting 15 pts for BJohnson for each of WWII 1943-45 (make your own adjustments if that seems off).
Those equivalences just seem a little too severe, but are pretty well expressed.
Browning wins all 10 years by varying margins (although his durability in some seasons is mediocre at best).
And as noted, I'm not as sold on Browning's defense as an issue as many are here.

But it's no wonder there's such a variety of opinion around here on the quartet.

1994 ballot (MP HoMers in bold – the Hall welcomes Sutton, Walters and Rollie Fingers this year, bringing the Pitcher share of inductees in my personal hall up to 30.2%):

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

1. Phil Niekro

Knucksie gets to go in at the top of a ballot, rather than third.

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

4. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

5. Dick Redding
6. Don Sutton

Like last week, when I was pleasantly surprised to find Niekro high on my ballot, I’m glad that Sutton is this high.

7. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

8. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

9. Rollie Fingers

It’s taken a couple of years, but I’ve become more confident that he’s on the right side of the In/Out line for relievers.

10. Bucky Walters

A very good peak, and good hitter to boot. He’s the edge right now for elected pitchers.

11. Ted Simmons
12. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

13. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.


14. Urban Shocker

Vaults up a few spots as I rebalance between peak-centred and career-centred pitchers. Right now, he’s just outside of my personal hall.

15. Charlie Keller

He's been just off and just on my ballot for a while, but I've just hopscotched him over Burns and Veach, because at the end of it all - this is pretty darn close to the borderline of the MP Hall of Merit, and I'm more convinced that he should be in than either of them.


16-20. Burns, Perez, Veach, Cash, Nettles
21-25. Lazzeri, Tiant, Bancroft, G. Foster, Duffy
26-30. Cey, Konetchy, W. Wood, Trout, Bridges
31-35. B. Johnson, R. White, Munson, Tenace, Cuyler
36-40. Seymour, Youngs, Roush, Klein, Trouppe
41-45. Tiernan, Rucker, Gomez, Singleton, Luque
46-50. Willis, Harder, Campaneris, Hooper, Uhle
51-55. E. Howard, Cicotte, F. Jones, C. Hunter, Newsom
56-60. Traynor, Guidry, Mays, Bonds, Bradley
61-65. Grimes, F. Howard, Blue, Pennock, Wynn
66-70. Concepcion, Kaat, Oms, S.J. Wood, Leach
71-75. Staub, Chance, Griffith, Cepeda, Quinn
76-80. R. Thomas, Ryan, Schang, R. Smith, Nash
81-85. Beckley, Bottomley, Bando, Elliott, Dunlap

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Roush – 38.
Trouppe – 40.
Wynn – 65.
Beckley – 81.
Fox – 91.

I just don’t see any of these as particularly electable. I’m closest with Roush, but I fear that the gap between my HoM and the general one will grow once we get past the 89-92 rush. Note that this comment is a few years old, but it’s already proven true with Boyer (and soon to be Wynn and Fox).

Ted Simmons is in my top 100 the problem I have with him is Catcher playing time/defense

1994

1. Phil Niekro (2)--Made my PHOM last year, tops the ballot pretty easily this year. (1993)

(Bobby Grich)

2. Ted Simmons (-)--Better than I expected. Catcher bonus pushes him ahead of Browning and Jones.

3. Pete Browning (5)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

4. Charley Jones (6)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

5. Tommy Leach (7)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

6. Edd Roush (8)--A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s. Bumped over Doyle this year. (1985)

7. Larry Doyle (9)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

8. Hugh Duffy (10)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

9. George Van Haltren (11)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

10. Carl Mays (12)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit. (1968)

11. Alejandro Oms (13)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

12. Ken Singleton (14)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

13. Jimmy Wynn (15)--Another all-around outfield candidate who gets underrated because he doesn’t stand out in either peak or career. He’s just a little less round than Minoso, Roush or Oms.

(Earl Averill)

14. Bobby Bonds (16)--Very close to Wynn and the fourth in my series of underrated outfielders.

15. Charlie Keller (17)--Just edges out Howard thanks to WARP.

16. Frank Howard (18)
(Joe Gordon)
17. Nellie Fox (19)
18. Quincy Trouppe (20)
(Red Faber)
19. Graig Nettles (-)
(Red Ruffing)
20. Rollie Fingers (21)
21. Sal Bando (22)
(Bob Lemon)
22. Bucky Walters (23)
23. Wally Berger (24)
24. Cesar Cedeno (25)
25. George Foster (26)
(Ted Lyons)
26. Dick Redding (27)
27. Dave Concepcion (-)
28. Ed Williamson (28)
(Dobie Moore)
29. Tony Perez (29)
30. Rusty Staub (30)
31. Vada Pinson (31)
32. Ron Cey (32)
33. Norm Cash (33)
34. Bruce Sutter (-)
35. Bobby Murcer (34)
36. Orlando Cepeda (35)
(Billy Pierce)
37. Vern Stephens (36)
38. Roger Bresnahan (37)
39. Lou Brock (38)
40. Dave Bancroft (39)
41. Jimmy Ryan (40)
42. Rabbit Maranville (41)
43. Tony Lazzeri (42)
44. Bob Elliott (43)
45. Phil Rizzuto (44)
(Rube Wadddell)
(Rube Foster)
46. Gavy Cravath (45)
47. Reggie Smith (46)
48. Jake Beckley (47)
49. Bobby Veach (48)
50. Luis Tiant (49)

Sutton debuts at #60, a bit behind Tiant. Grich, Simmons and Wynn make the PHOM.

Chris Cobb: as you can see on the graph in my spreadsheet, standard deviations for 1971-77 were comparable to those of the 1950s and lower than those of the 1960s. The all-time low period for stdev (and, thus, the OPS+/ERA+ seasons that should get the biggest boost) is 1978-1992. The 1990s are similar to the 1960s. You certainly wouldn't be right to penalize Nettles for his era. It wasn't like he had some big peak season in 1969 that needs to be taken with a grain of salt (a la McCovey, Wynn, Staub, Reggie, Petrocelli). He probably deserves a small boost for it relative to the competition (certainly relative to guys like your #5 and #6 Roush and Keller, who played in leagues that were much "easier to dominate").

Ah, I'll take a swing
"Ted Simmons is in my top 100 the problem I have with him is Catcher playing time/defense"

He played in 150+ games every year from 1972-78, plus 145 in 1980, 100 in strike-shortened 1981, then 137-153-132-143

Career games 2456, games C 1771.
How many players have ever caught more?

Career games 2456, games C 1771.
How many players have ever caught more?

Top 20 in Games at Catcher

(Sigh)

Simmons caught more games than the greatest catcher ever, Ray Schalk.

I sometimes wish that more voters would vote mid-week. Speaking as a ballot counter, it can be draining, all those first day and last day votes. There are usually around 1-2 ballots cast per day in between....sigh....

Happy to know I often make your day as a mid-week guy, rawag.... I'll try not to disappoint in the future :)

I sometimes wish that more voters would vote mid-week. Speaking as a ballot counter, it can be draining, all those first day and last day votes. There are usually around 1-2 ballots cast per day in between....sigh....

Maybe we should we go to a two-day balloting cycle???? ; )

Of course, I could just help myself and keep my ballot back an extra day or two....

1994 ballot

1) Phil Niekro - as close to #2 as #2 is to #71
2) Don Sutton - better than the backlog pitchers but not by a whole heckuva lot. Similar value HoM pitchers are Bill Foster, Ray Brown, Dazzy Vance.
3) Luis Tiant - There's a reason they called it the "era of the pitcher"
4) Bob Johnson - Best available outfielder
5) Ted Simmons - Probably better than Trouppe, definitely more certain
6) Norm Cash - Good defense adds to a bat comparable to Cepeda
7) Tommy Bridges - Best war era pitcher and we're short war era pitching
8) Quincy Trouppe - Nice to see him nearing induction
9) Tony Perez - I wasn't giving him enough credit for his defense and 3B work
10) Jake Beckley - Best pre-Ruth player remaining
11) Rusty Staub - I don't really like him but I can't deny the value he created
12) Reggie Smith - One of Rosenheck's favorites
13) Gavy Cravath - Terrific hitter, especially for his era. Poor defender or he'd rank higher.
14) Virgil Trucks - The way my system is set up really makes him look good. Deserves war credit, may deserve leverage credit for relief work. Beats the pants off Fingers.
15) Bus Clarkson - Very good hitter for an infielder. The scant evidence suggests he was a decent fielder. Are there any former teammates left we can tap for their opinions?

16-20) Jim Wynn, Dave Bancroft, Edd Roush, Dutch Leonard, Orlando Cepeda
21-25) Ron Cey, Bob Elliott, Charlie Keller, Jack Quinn, Dick Redding
26-30) Vic Willis, Urban Shocker, Jerry Koosman, Johnny Evers, Luke Easter
31-35) Hilton Smith, Dizzy Trout, Frank Howard, Bobby Bonds, Alejandro Oms

44) Graig Nettles - I like Cey better
50) Jose Cruz - compare to Kiki Cuyler
88) Ron Guidry - Lefty Gomez II
111) Dave Concepcion - I don't take into account standard deviations
Don Baylor - not in consideration set

54) Rollie Fingers
107) Nellie Fox - as good of an argument as Pie Traynor and similarities in the defensive spectrum

I was talking abought compaired to the average amount of games caught per era obviously with the twenty times better catching equitment catchers are going to catch more today.

also I didn't mean to impley he didn't catch that much but not on a HoM levell

DL: 7) Tommy Bridges - Best war era pitcher and we're short war era pitching

Bucky Walters was war-time, and while his pitching fell a bit short of Bridges, wouldn't adding his nice bat put him ahead? WS and WARP think so....

Bucky Walters was war-time, and while his pitching fell a bit short of Bridges, wouldn't adding his nice bat put him ahead? WS and WARP think so....

Ditto, Tom.

with the twenty times better catching equitment catchers are going to catch more today.

You meant to say 20% better catching equipment, of course.

I've got about 990 PRAR, 250 PRAA and -75 BRAR for Tommy Bridges
I've got about 815 PRAR, 160 PRAA and -5 BRAR for Bucky Walters.

No, 70 Batting Runs v. replacement doesn't make up that difference. Also 35% of Bucky's plate appearances were as a lousy 3B, not as a pitcher. WS and WARP are interested in replacement value and I'm more interested in average value. Bucky's time as an infielder rates a big fat 0 on my scale but it counts toward WARP and WS.

I'm not high on Bob Lemon or Wes Ferrell either, just so you know I'm consistent.

I take a combination of career and peak and mix em up like gumbo.


1) Phil Niekro – Over 100 wins from 40 years old on.
2) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
3) Don Sutton – Career stats gets him in. Late 70’s hairstyle almost gets him out.
4) Ted Simmons – Not as great as Bench and Fisk for his era, but still darn good.
5) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
6) Burleigh Grimes –5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
7) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
8) Luis Aparicio –nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
9) Rollie Fingers – The first of the great modern relievers.
10) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
11) Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
12) Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
13) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
14) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
15) Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones

No soup for…

16) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits.
17) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
18) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
19) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
20) Edd Roush – I like Rice better.
21) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
22) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
23) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
24) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
25) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
26) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
27) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
28) Jim Kaat- I am comfortable with him in this position. Career length enabled him to put up some interesting numbers, but I don’t think he’s good enough for the HOM (or the HOF for that matter).
29) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
30) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
31) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
32) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
33) Vida Blue – What might have been…
34) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
35) Don Baylor &
36) Reggie Smith &
37) Jimmy Wynn- The Hall of very good beckons
38) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
39) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.
40) Cecil Cooper – He had a hechuva peak. As a Yankees fan, I absolutely hated seeing him come up. As scary to any Yankees fan in the early 80’s as David Ortiz is now.
41) Quincy Trouppe- Not sold on him. Certainly isn't one of the top ten catchers.

Bucky's time as an infielder rates a big fat 0 on my scale but it counts toward WARP and WS.
--
I agree, Walters' time in the infield ain't worth squat. But if we only use Walters' 12 year prime (1935-46), which excludes most all of his 3B play, and compare to Bridges' best 12 (1932-43), Walters leads in WS 242 to 214, and in WARP3 81.8 to 78.5. I'd have to hunt further to see if and why a simple PRAA/PRAR/BRAR tally wouldn't show the same thing.

I'm giving Bridges 55 PRAR 10 PRAA -5 BRAR war credit. Walters has about 300 additional innings pitched which will make a lot of difference v. replacement but Bridges has the better rate stats. I believe my war credit and my higher replacement value make up the difference and then some.

1994 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for peak/prime for hitters, only a little for pitchers. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Phil Niekro (4) [4]
Quite a horse.
2- Ted Simmons {new}
Joe Torre redux.
3- Jake Beckley (5) [13]
Great career.
4- John McGraw (6) [36]
From 1893 to 1901, his age 20-28 seasons, John McGraw played in 908 games. And he scored 937 runs. Not bad, Mugsy.
5- Bucky Walters (7) [15]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too. Superb 1939-40.
6- Bob Johnson (8) [14]
Very good long prime.
7- Frank Chance (9) [59]
A great player on great teams. <u>Better hitter than Gavy Cravath.</u>
From 1903-1906, only Honus Wagner among non-pitchers had more Win Shares than Frank Chance. In that time, Chance collected 120 WS in only 503 games, which would be the 2nd highest career WS rate ever (behind the Babe). Yes, obviously it was only 4 years, but somehow I hardly ever hear Chance mentioned as a peak candidate.
8- Don Sutton {new}
Steady Eddy. That’s a whole lotta Wins in one career, ain’t it? But I prefer a peak/prime a little more in my pitchers; it’s nice to have an ace in the post-season. His lengthy career likely did come about partially from his era and park conditions, so I ding him a bit. Still, won a ton of games on little offensive support, so he lands here.
9- Dick Redding (10) [11]
My rankings for not-yet-honored NgLgers goes Redding, Monroe, Trouppe, Oms, Howard, Easter, all-of-the-rest. And the odds that I have them exactly in the unknown “correct” order is … virtually zero. But this is what I gots.
10- George Van Haltren (11) [21]
<u>Three Hundred and Eighty</u> Win Shares.
11- Charlie Keller (12) [9]
MiL credit and a pinch of great World Series stats gets him on.
12- Jimmy Wynn (15) [7]
He doesn’t look much different than Smith or Bonds or Oms, and we HAVE elected a ton of OFers. I’m okay with the Toy Cannon, but a bit lukewarm.
13- Roger Bresnahan (off) [21]
Best catcher of his era. Position flexibility not a minus.
14- Louis Tiant (13) [26]
Four postseason starts. Averaged 8½ innings, 2.6 ERA, & his team won all 4 games. Take THAT, Bob Gibson and Jack Morris!
15- Rollie Fingers (14) [10]
LOTS of post-season credit. And he needs it to get on the ballot.

Other newbies

Nettles – Debuts at #28
Concepcion – Debuts at #46. I’ve read some of Dan R’s WARP, but I still need convincing that we oughta apply the low-mean low-variation corrections to Davey’s SS candidacy.

Returning top 10ers:

Edd Roush – George Van Haltren began his career almost a year later in age than Roush. And ended his career a year earlier. In that shorter period of time, Van Haltren gained more Win Shares, and more WARP (either W1 or W3, take your pick) than Roush. Apparently a majority of our voters think both of the uber-stat systems are in error in their assessment. Apparently I disagree with the majority of our voters.

Nellie Fox is around 25; not far from middle IFers Aparicio, Rizzuto, Maranville, Bancroft, and Concepcion. I’d just as soon have Bill Monroe.

Quincy Trouppe is also around #25 for me. The anecdotal evidence, which is one piece of the puzzle, weighs him down some.

Still, won a ton of games on little offensive support, so he lands here

The park-adjusted offenses that supported him were above league average, though I don't know if that was true for him individually.

TomH, I'm glad to see you've looked over my work. I'm not sure I understand your response: it seems to me that either you take into account position (or not, in which case you'd only have 1B and OF), changes in positional replacement level over time (or not, in which case you'd vote for Larry Doyle), and changes in standard deviation over time (or else your HoM would have zillions of 1890s guys and practically no 1980s guys). It's up to each voter to determine how much to weight these factors, but it seems to me that whatever weights you select, you should apply them equally to all candidates, and not disregard them when they suggest that a candidate you might not be inclined to support is a HoM'er. It's one thing to say "I don't think that playing in a weak era for your position or in a low-standard deviation era matters;" it's another to say "They matter for other players, but not for Concepción." Could you clarify?

The park-adjusted offenses that supported him were above league average, though I don't know if that was true for him individually.

I couldn't resist. I compared the support Sutton received each year between 1967 and 1981 with the park adjusted run environment for each season. The first observation is that his run support was pretty close to average for most seasons. In only one season (1974) was his run support more than one run more or less than what an average offense would provide in that context. The second observation is that his run support, while near average, was usually slightly above average - in 10 of the 15 seasons, his run support was above average, although usually not by much. In only one season (1980), did Sutton receive more than .5 runs per game below average.

My conclusion is that Sutton generally received slightly above average support during the prime of his career.

My conclusion is that Sutton generally received slightly above average support during the prime of his career.

Thanks for doing the work, Diz.

1994 ballot. Interesting year with many fringe candidates, HOVG types. Couple new guys probably deserve to get in and make my ballot. The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything: WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Phil Niekro (4). I have little recollection of Niekro looking anything other than age 50+. Just an old looking player who threw that knuckler past many a batter.

2. Dick Redding (5). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years.

3. Norm Cash (6). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things. You can’t throw away his peak year even though contradicts the rest of his work.

4. Ted Simmons (-). You’d have to catch awfully badly to offset the good he did with his bat. That’s not the case, he exceeds many catchers, put him in.

5. Tommy Leach (7). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

6. Bobby Bonds (8). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays and some people never got over it.

7. Tony Mullane (9). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

8. Reggie Smith (10). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup.

9. Roger Bresnahan (11). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

10. Bob Johnson (12). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

11. Mickey Welch (17). Another one of those annoying 300 game winners. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey.

12. Jimmy Wynn (15). I’ve felt he was close to Reggie Smith, this puts him back in that neighborhood. Peakish argument, was a three true outcome player.

13. Don Sutton (-). The Jake Beckley of pitchers? Slightly better but same type of arguments for merit consideration. It takes something to pitch slightly above average year after year after year. Starting Sutton where I about had Cey last year, I think I overrated the Penguin a little.

14. Alejandro Oms (16). The body of work included Negro and Latin American play. The famous Cuban in on the fringes of ballotness again.

15. Jake Beckley (24). I want to say something substantial about him, add some insight no one else has. Yeah, not really happening. Very good, very long, he’s hardly the worst player out there.

16-20: Mays, Poles, Perez, Fingers, Ryan
21-25: Browning, Keller, Walters, Byrd, Bancroft
26-30: Cey, Easter, Willis, Shocker, Nettles
31-35: Duffy, Brock, Joss, Trouppe, Rizzuto
36-40: Tenace, Cedeno, Tiant, Luque, Schang
41-45: Elliott, C Jones, Bridges, Roush, Cicotte
46-50: Ben Taylor, Clarkson, Dean, Grimes, Doyle

Top 10 Returnees: Fox (not top 50), Roush(#44), Browning (#21), Trouppe (#34), Keller (#22), Fingers (#19). Fox is just someone I don’t get. Maybe fills a positional/era gap but I don’t hold to that rigorous “we must have a player covering years X through Y”. The defense was nice but the offense was lacking – it leaned on the OBP side but not so heavily. Roush is falling through the CF glut. Browning have received ballot spots in the past from me and might again. Trouppe is neither my favorite catcher or NeL player so he is waiting below. His MLEs bounce around quite a bit so uncertainty hurts his standing. Keller depending on the gap filling you do can be Elmer Flick or short of Earl Averill. I’m just not as willing to give those filler years the complete peak value needed to reach the ballot yet. Slightly overrated by the great teams he played on, at least from a WS perspective. Fingers is the best reliever available but not so valuable as long term starters. Overall, no qualms except maybe Fox and he did have the weak competition argument similar to Sewell.

New guys: Nettles, slightly under Cey and within shouting distance. Cruz is not far from the top 50, underrated but not HOM level underrated. Concepcion is well down there, will continue to look into.

DanR, will get back to you - response deserves much longer than I have to give it tonight.

I guess I can elaborate on "beats the pants off of Fingers"

Player IP ERA+
Trucks 2682 116
Fingers 1701 119

I have Trucks deserving of another 360 innings at around his ERA+ 116 production and that's a fair estimate considering his work in surrounding years. I think the extra 1300 innings makes up the ERA+ gap and then some.

From wikipedia on Virgil Trucks, there's a great argument for minor league credit.
"In a 17-season career, Trucks posted a 177-135 record with 1534 strikeouts and a 3.39 ERA in 2682.2 innings pitched. His career numbers are not reflective of the quality of his pitching. In 1952, he was 5-19 with the last place Detroit Tigers (50-104). His five wins came from two no-hitters, a one-hitter, and a two hitter. Trucks suffered from playing for poor defensive teams until he came to the Chicago White Sox.

Trucks had an excellent pre-war minor league career (1938-41). He threw 4 no-hitters in the minors and still holds the American Baseball strikeouts in a season record of 418 strikeouts (1938). He struck out another 30 batters in the playoffs."

Hardball Times:
"In 1938, the 19 year old with the electric arm blossomed. In the first game of the 1938 season, Trucks fanned 20 batters. A Tigers' scout signed Trucks immediately, claiming that only Bobby Feller threw harder.

It was only the beginning.

On May 30th, Trucks whiffed 22 Panama City Pelicans. The game against the Pelicans was the fifth time that year that Trucks struck out more than 16 batters in a game. Trucks continued to dominate the league and finished the season 10-2 with an eye popping 420 strikeouts in 263 innings. So in 1939, Trucks moved up to Beaumont in the Texas League, and his contract was purchased by the Detroit Tigers shortly thereafter."

Ballot for 1994 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

I have cut back my "catcher bonus" due to the influx of good candidates lately.

1) P. NIEKRO -- I have Niekro a notch behind with Roberts and Gibson. Another notch behind comes Palmer, Perry, and Jenkins. Prime 1967-80. Best player candidate by WARP in 1974 and 1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1969, 1974, 1978, 1979; also best RP in 1967. Other star seasons include 1972, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1984. HM in 1971.

2) T. SIMMONS -- BBWAA oversight. Prime 1971-83. Never #1 catcher, but five consensus #2 seasons. Star seasons include 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1980. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1971, 1976, 1979, 1982, and 1983.

3) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

4) J. WYNN -- Splitting hairs between him and Singleton. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

5) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

6) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

7) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

8) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

9) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

10) B. BONDS -- Scored much higher than I thought he would. Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

11) P. TRAYNOR -- I see the HOM as being somewhat heavy on "bats" (OF/1B) and went to a system organized around position groups (arms/bats/gloves). Traynor was the major beneficiary of the reorg. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

12) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

13) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

14) B. MAZEROSKI -- Corrected an error; he moves up. Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

15) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but I have him ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

16) T. MUNSON -- Close to Howard and Freehan. Don't understand the lack of support. Prime 1970-78. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) 1976; WARP adds 1973. Other star seasons include 1970, 1975, 1977. HM in 1971, 1972, 1978.

17) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

18) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

19) R. FINGERS -- Doesn't score well in my system, but that's because relievers have problems in both WS and WARP, on which my All-Star system is based. I had similar problems with Wilhelm. Tentative placement, based on the work of Joe Dimino and Chris Cobb.

20) R. CEY -- Scored better than expected. Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Graig Nettles, Nellie Fox, Bobby Veach,
24-26) Dizzy Dean, Dizzy Trout, Ron Guidry,
27-29) Hugh Duffy, Don Sutton, Jake Beckley,
30-32) Vida Blue, Dick Redding, Wilbur Wood,
33-35) Bob Johnson, Jim McCormick, Edd Roush,
36-38) Charley Jones, George Foster, Norm Cash,
39-41) Roger Bresnahan, Quincy Trouppe, Ray Schalk,

Keller: peak is not high enough, career is not long enough, when compared to other marginal OFers.

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.

A team with Sutton as its best player would very rarely make the playoffs though he was almost always a useful above-average player. I don't oppose his election but I don't endorse it either.

I tend to lean towards peak/prime, although a pure career candidate can sneak through at an important defensive position. I'm an anti-timeline, pennant-is-a-pennant voter. I give credit for wars, holdouts, strikes, blacklisting and players being in the minors when they're clearly MLB caliber, as well as NEL credit. I'm solidly in the WS camp, although I'll also look at OPS+, ERA+, IP, PA and ranking among contemporaries at their position. I do think that WS does miss on occasion, and I give a subjective bump to candidates who I think WS is off on.

PHOM
Phil Niekro
Ted Simmons
Bruce Sutter

1994 Ballot
1. Phil Niekro – Elected PHOM in 1994
2. Ted Simmons - Best catcher available. Elected PHOM in 1994.
3. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
4. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
5. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
6. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
7. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
8. Edd Roush – Better than Carey. Elected PHOM in 1975.
9. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
10. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
11. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
12. Ed Williamson – I’ll take him over Boyer. Elected PHOM in 1958
13. Dizzy Dean –Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
14. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985
15. Jimmy Wynn – Another time and place he’d be a HOFer. Elected PHOM in 1985

Required Disclosures
Keller and Fingers juyst miss my ballot
Fox #26. May make my PHOM eventially.
Trouppe While I can accept some uncertainty in regards to NeL players. I just feel that Trouppe has too much information that is undocumented to feel confident placing him on my ballot.

New Candidates
Don Sutton The Jake Beckley of pitchers, although I like him much better than Beckley. He's at #33.
Graig Nettles Like his defense. Better than Cey and Bando. Not as good as Traynor, Elliott or Boyer. #36
Dave Concepcion Have him around Schoendienst and Mazeroski. #108
Jose Cruz Between Veach and Roy White among LF #117
Ron Guidry Great year in 1978. Below consideration set.
Don Baylor Below consideration set.

Off the ballot
16-20 Keller,Bresnahan,Cravath,Sutter,Fingers
21-25 Newcombe,Leach,Bond,Mays,Monroe
26-30 Fox,WCooper,Easter,Elliott,Traynor
31-35 Johnson,Singleton,Sutton,Munson,Scales
36-40 Nettles,Tiernan,FHoward,Trouppe,HSmith
41-45 Shocker,MWilliams,Bando,Doyle,FJones
46-50 Cey,HWilson,Rizzuto,Schang,McGraw
51-55 AWilson,Cepeda,Clarkson,Stephens,Matlock
56-60 Poles,Rosen,Winters,Mullane,ACooper
61-65 Van Haltren,Ryan,DiMaggio,Berger,Burns
66-70 Cedeno,RSmith,Tenace,Pinson,Pesky
71-75 Chance,Perez,Bonds,Taylor,Cash
76-80 Byrd,Fournier,Brock,Lundy,McCormick
81-85 Beckley,Dunlap,Griffin,NAllen,Long
86-90 Tinker,Bancroft,Kaat,Foster,Lombardi
91-95 Marshall,Dandridge,Hiller,Cuyler,Veach
96-100 Colavito,Fregosi,Harrah,Warneke,Otis

PHOM - Grich, Simmons, Perez

1. Phil Niekro - About equal to Carlton.

2. Ted Simmons - Very good hitting catcher with a long career. From '75-'80 in the top 10 in OPS+ 5 times.

3. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

4. Don Sutton - 5000+ IP. 10 times in the top 10 in IP. 7 times in the top 10 in ERA+. 16 times in the top 10 in K/BB.

5. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

6. Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitting catcher who had a long career.

7. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

8. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

9. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

10. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

11. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

12. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

13. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

14. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

15. Graig Nettles - Excellent defender, good hitter over a long career. Brooks Robinson-lite.

16. Ken Singleton
17. Bobby Bonds
18. Ceasar Cedeno
19. Vada Pinson
20. Norm Cash
21. Hugh Duffy
22. Edd Roush
23. Tommy Leach
24. Bob Elliott
25. Ron Cey
26. Dave Concepcion
27. Harry Hooper
28. Luis Tiant
29. George Van Haltren
30. Alejandro Oms
31. Buzz Arlett
32. Orlando Cepeda
33. Gil Hodges
34. Burleigh Grimes
35. Reggie Smith
36. Jose Cruz
37. Willie Davis
38. Fielder Jones
39. Dick Redding
40. Pie Traynor
41. Jim Kaat
42. George Foster
43. Pete Browning
44. Wally Berger
45. Vern Stephens

Keller - Great peak, but not enough career value.

Fingers - I'm not sure about him, I'd like for a relief pitcher to have more than a couple of dominant seasons.

jimd - I understand the wild disagreement over Sutton. It makes sense to me that some voters can put him in an elect-me slot, and others can have him off ballot. What I'm having a little trouble understanding is a #5 vote for Kaat with Sutton in the 20's. What's Kaat selling that Sutton doesn't have?

Taking time off a busy period to post a mid-week ballot.

1) PHIL NIEKRO: Unlucky to have to wait an extra year for induction. A notably worse pitcher has a chance at getting in at the first try...

2) TED SIMMONS: Yeah, he was mostly a hitter. But he was behind the plate for a bigger chunk of his career than, say, Torre and Tenace. Easy HOMer, had a shot at #1

3) QUINCY TROUPPE: Not quite Simmons, but sufficiently close. His election draws nigh...

4) ALEJANDRO OMS: Great career, nice peak too.

5) GAVVY CRAVATH: Reggie Jackson minus a few years.

6) JIMMY WYNN: Early in this election cycle, I took the liberty of re-ordering some candidates. In that revision, he switches places with...

7) JIMMY RYAN: My choice among the 19th century backlog outfielders. Outhit them all except Browning, who was a much worse fielder.

8) TONY LAZZERI: My choice among the overlooked early 20th Century second basemen.

9) RON CEY: With a little discount to his WARP defense. He's Boyer-lite.

10) JOHN MCGRAW: Revising him made me a believer. .466 OBP is insane!

11) BOB JOHNSON: Even with some war demerit, he stands atop the borderline outfielder. Neither peaky nor careery.

12) LUIS TIANT: My new RA+ system shows him well, at least compared to ERA+, so he rises a few notches.

13) CHARLEY JONES: One of the trickiest players to evaluate, but if you give him blacklist credit, he´s a good one.

14) GENE TENACE: Not quite Simmons's bat, and less time catching, leads to less value. Still good though.

15) DON SUTTON: Wow. I know pitchers and position players can be hard to compare, but Sutton's career shape is so similar to that of the much-debated Jake Beckley, that I find it hard to elect him while Eagle-Eye can't even crack the top returnees. If anything, Beckley had a higher peak. I'm not completely opposed to such flat careers, but they do little to impress me.

Off ballot. Within each group, players are listed alphabetically:

16-24: Jake Beckley, Roger Bresnahan, David Concepcion, Rollie Fingers, Jim Fregosi, Charlie Keller, Tony Perez, Cannonball Dick Redding, Edd Roush
25-32: Pete Browning, Graig Nettles, Johnny Pesky, George Scales, Ken Singleton, Rusty Staub, Ned Williamson, Vic Willis
33-43: Dave Bancroft, Bus Clarkson, Larry Doyle, Lefty Gomez, Ron Guidry, Frank Howard, Chuck Klein, Ernie Lombardi, Bruce Sutter, Pie Traynor, George Van Haltren
44-52: Bobby Bonds, Orlando Cepeda, Hugh Duffy, Bob Elliott, Nellie Fox, Jim Kaat, Thurman Munson, Artie Wilson, Wilbur Wood
53-60: Sal Bando, Lou Brock, Norm Cash, Cesar Cedeño, Dizzy Dean, Darrell Porter, Phil Rizzuto, Reggie Smith
61-67: Dick Bartell, Cheo Cruz, Burleigh Grimes, Toby Harrah, Davey Lopes, Bobby Murcer, Bucky Walters

DISCLOSURES

Nellie Fox: We're picking the wrong glove guy (if there is such a thing as a "right" glove guy... maybe Ozzie when he comes?). Above it was said that Concepcion was Nellie Fox-lite, I think Nellie is David Concepcion-lite.

Edd Roush: Hangin' close. After fixing stuff regarding his war year, I can see myself voting for him on less crowded years.

Charley Keller: Closer. He's pretty close to Johnson and Jones, but there's not enough room for all three of them.

Rollie Fingers: The newbies and reevaluations squeezed him off my ballot. I'm finding myself less enthusiastic about his case right now.

NEWBIES

David Concepcion: I'm not completely sold by WARP's vision of him (if I were, he would be on my low ballot) but, specially after seeing that Rosenheck's data likes him (although that might be caused a low replacement level for his era's shortstops... still, that's value), I think WARP's more "right" than Win Shares regarding him. No psychic bonus :)

Graig Nettles: Pretty nice glove, but I like my third basemen with more bat. Looks like Brooks Robinson-lite, and I wasn't the biggest fan of Brooks back then.

Bruce Sutter: Only if you're super-duper-peaky.

Ron Guidry: A starting Sutter, with some filler seasons.

Cheo Cruz: Not enough bat for a corner outfielder.

My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady excellence over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1, #2 and #3 were elected. New exhibits for GVH and Staub. A really interesting mix of newbies in 1994: Simmons, Sutton, Nettles, Concepcion, Cruz, Guidry and Sutter. Thirdbasemen rule in 1995 as Schmidt, Evans and Bell come on; John and Rice also go in the pot. The class of 1996 has no shoo-ins, with Hernandez, Quisenberry, Reuschel and Lynn heading the newbies. The HoM shifts to the right(fielders) in 1997, when Dwight Evans and Dave Parker grace the ballot.

1) Phil Niekro – Easy #1 this year. Loonngg career, nice peak. Solid, upper-midlevel HoMer.

2) Ted Simmons – Just as easy #2. Among top 15 catchers all-time, better than Freehan or Mackey.

3) Don Sutton – And easy #3. Loonngg career, not-so-nice peak. Solid, lower-midlevel HoMer.

4) Tony Perez (5,4,ne) – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43.

5) George Van Haltren (6,5,2) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned; in six years, 1982 to 1988, he went from the #6 unelected player to #14. We’ve now elected 12 players who were behind him in 1970. Why? Now in his 86th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Two non-HoMers here, Players with 3400 times on base 1871-1909:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

6) Edd Roush (7,6,3) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Played 89.2% of his games in CF. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. The last decade has seen him move into position for eventual election. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, 3800+ PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

7) Tommy Leach (8,7,4) – Cracked the top twenty in voting in 1988 for the first time since 1949. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

8) Jake Beckley (9,8,5) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top 15 seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19/19-18-18-18-17/17-17-16-16-15 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19/19-18-17-17-14/13-10—8—2—1 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19/19-17-17-17-15/12—9—9—7—7 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16/14-13-13-12-11/11—6—0—0—0 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16/13-12-11-11-10/09—8—2—0—0 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17/12-12-10-10-10/09—9—9—4—2 J. Doyle

9) Charlie Keller (10,9,6) – He’s Dick Allen without the baggage. Kiner’s election should cinch his. Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too. Players with OPS within .090 of Kong’s, 1938-51, 4500+ PA:
1—1.116 T. Williams
2—1.015 S. Musial
3—.970 J. DiMaggio
4—.961 J. Mize
5—.928 C. Keller
6—.915 M Ott
7—.884 B. Johnson
8—.881 J. Heath
9—868 T. Henrich
10-.850 E. Slaughter
11-.840 R. Cullenbine

10) Burleigh Grimes (11,10,7) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing
5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller

11) Rusty Staub (12,11,9) – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

12) Roger Bresnahan (13,12,10) – A couple more voters now (11) have some regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14, 3100+ PA:
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

13) Jimmy Ryan (14,13,11) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

14) Quincy Trouppe (15,14,13) – Fifth time on ballot. Recent discussion shows me he’s the most deserving NeL candidate out there, all the signs are positive. He may very well be the best catcher candidate (after Simmons) as well.

15) Graig Nettles – Another looonggg career 1970’s star. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

Top tenners off ballot:

Fingers was on my ballot, he likely will be again.

Fox has been on my ballot and may be again. Weaker league weighs him down a little.

Wynn is a bit short on career, but definitely on my radar. Would be on if he’d played more center field.

1994 (elect 3)

Big shake-up this year. Mainly the pitchers. My borderline backlog (#15-30) is especially getting a thorough review since we’ll all be moving a bunch of buys who have historically been off-ballot on-ballot in the next few years. Tommy Leach, Al Rosen and Luke Easter move into the top 25 and into position for serious consideration of moving on-ballot someday soon.

1. Phil Niekro (5-new, PHoM 1994)—better than I thought, a completely different ballpark than Don Sutton, e.g.

2. Edd Roush (4-6-10, PHoM 1976)—nice peak of 38*-33-30 (*short WWI season adjusted to 154), very well-rounded skills. (What Dan Said.)

3. Ted Simmons (new, PHoM 1994)—I suppose you could characterize him as borderline, but then you’d really have to say “high borderline;” really dominates the other catcher candidates and there are a bunch of good ones.

4. Charlie Keller (6-9-8, PHoM 1985)—the all-peakers all-peak candidate. (What Dan said.)

5. Larry Doyle (15-5-5, PHoM 1975)—best of the “3B.”

6. Rollie Fingers (7-3-3, PHoM 1991)—there’s no uber-stat that says Fingers is ballot-worthy, but I go back to Chris Cobb’s old test—who do you want in the HoM? And on that simple basis, subjective as it is, I want the #3 reliever of all-time in our knowledge base through 1991.

7. Elston Howard (12-15-15, PHoM 1994)—never really thought of him as a HoM or HoF or PHoM type of player, but I now see him as one of those few players whose opportunities were least commensurate to his ability.

8. Addie Joss (9-6-6, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available among those with a real career’s worth of IP.

9. Orlando Cepeda (16-13-9, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard, Cravath and (now) Tony Perez, but the best of the group.

10. Phil Rizzuto (22-17-17)—moves up, we’ve elected all the great hitters, how about the great gloves?

11. Dick Redding (26-25-25, PHoM 1971)—moves back up, as I’m trying to get back to looking for that great peak.

12. Nellie Fox (8-4-4, PHoM 1971)—I’ve decided I like Rizzuto a bit better, two very very comparable players.

13. Reggie Smith (17-10-11, PHoM 1988)—still underrated.

14. Ed Williamson (13-11-13, PHoM 1924)—Ed is like a bad habit I just can’t shake.

15. Pete Browning (10-7-7, PHoM 1961)—Browning & Williamson—don’t they make cigarettes?

Drops Out

34. Tommy Bond (11-12-12, PHoM 1929)
36. Dizzy Dean (14-23-23)—cannot make up my mind about these guys, they are such extreme peak cases, yet both fall short on ERA+.

Close—i.e. right around in/out line, as I think we will elect another dozen backloggers before we’re done

16. Tommy Leach (29-48-47)--(What Dan said.)
17. Charley Jones (30-16-16, PHoM 1921)
18. Al Rosen (37-40-39)
19. Tony Perez (18-new)--(Not quite what Dan said.)

20. Don Sutton (new)—higher than I expected him to be (but definitely not what Dan said).

21. Gavvy Cravath (21-14-14)
22. Don Newcombe (20-22-21)
(22a. Ken Boyer [22a-22b-22])
23. Frank Howard (27-19-18)
24. Eddie Cicotte (29-29-28)
(24a. Willie Keeler [30a-22a-21a])
25. Luke Easter (60-54-54)

HoVVG

26. Dick Lundy (23-28-27)
27. Bucky Walters (25-20-19)
28. Hack Wilson (39-34-33)
29. Sal Bando (49-60-61)
30. Chuck Klein (24-24-24)
(30a. Joe Sewell [28b-21a-20a])
(30b. Jim Bunning [28a-37a-36a])

31. Roger Bresnahan (36-38-37)
32. Lefty Gomez (46-61-62)
33. Vern Stephens (33-31-30)
34. Tommy Bond (11-12-12, PHoM 1929)
35. Dave Bancroft (38-30-29)
36. Dizzy Dean (14-23-23)
37. Thurman Munson (19-26-26)

HoVG

38. Burleigh Grimes (70-67-67)
39. Pie Traynor (45-46-45)
(39a. Ezra Sutton [32a-35a-34a])
40. Alejandro Oms (53-39-38)
(40a. Biz Mackey [65b-61b-61b])

41. Dave Concepcion (new)
42. Bobby Estalella (47-33-32)
43. Norm Cash (31-21-20)
44. Bruce Sutter (new)
45. Bobby Bonds (51-45-44)
(45a. Jimmy Sheckard [54a-51a-51a])
46. Bill Monroe (63-51-51)
47. Wally Berger (40-47-46)
48. Luis Tiant (85-80-80)
49. Cesar Cedeno (32-27-new)
(49a. Cool Papa Bell [76a-85a-85a])
50. Quincy Trouppe (54-52-52)

Wynn and Beckley are #52 and #54. Everybody else in the top 10 backlog are here somewhere, though Trouppe just squeezes in. BTW I can see how it happened, but isn't it peculiar that Sutter is not listed at the top of this thread as a prominent newcomer?

Now that we've apparently rejected Sutter it appears the only remaining controversial BBWAA selection is Puckett. BTW, Sutter couldn't make my top 125.

Now that we've apparently rejected Sutter it appears the only remaining controversial BBWAA selection is Puckett, maybe Eck. BTW, Sutter couldn't make my top 125.

jimd - I understand the wild disagreement over Sutton. It makes sense to me that some voters can put him in an elect-me slot, and others can have him off ballot. What I'm having a little trouble understanding is a #5 vote for Kaat with Sutton in the 20's. What's Kaat selling that Sutton doesn't have?

Short answer? Kaat has a better prime (at least the way I measure it).

I'm a peak/prime/career voter. An important part of my prime measurement is having "All-Star" seasons (as enumerated on my ballot). These reflect the ability of the player to make positive contributions to playoff teams (not just filling a hole on such a team but actively contributing).

Sutton does not score at all well here. His steady above-average contributions rarely reach the All-Star level (as compiled by me yearly). He gets close to my ballot due to his unusually long flat career at that level.

OTOH, Kaat is somewhat similar to Early Wynn; brought up too soon by the same bad organization; and hung on way too long (though one really can't blame him due to the new free-agent paychecks being handed out, also got a ring in '82). Wynn put together a coherent prime good enough to make the HOM; Kaat has the good years (though not as good as Wynn) but they're disorganized, strewn about almost randomly between 1961 and 1975. I think that most people see all the sub-par seasons and the career stats and dismiss him. My system sees just the high spots and there are enough of those good seasons to be considered a marginal candidate.

I think he belongs in the HOM but I can see why others don't agree.

Now that we've apparently rejected Sutter it appears the only remaining controversial BBWAA selection is Puckett.

If Jimmy Wynn does eventually get in, I think it would be pretty difficult to elect him and leave out Puckett (or Dale Murphy, for that matter).

Kaat and Wynn are indeed similar. The description of good and bad years "disorganized (and) strewn about" is a good one. I see both of them this way and I hold it against both of them. But more so against Kaat...or, rather, Wynn has the counter-balancing of 300 wins while Kaat does not. So for me neither scores well on peak or prime but Wynn gets more career. So he ends up around #50 while Kaat is more like #80 or so.

Sutton's consistency--that lack of the below average years "strewn about"--is a significant advantage, though it might be described more as a lack of a negative than as a real positive as far as peak/prime goes. But he also trumps them on career, and I do consider career at least a bit. Sometimes too much, actually, and then I tend to pull back to peak/prime. Right now I'm in a peak/prime phase but Sutton is still about #20. Looks like I won't have to think a whole about him.

If Jimmy Wynn does eventually get in, I think it would be pretty difficult to elect him and leave out Puckett (or Dale Murphy, for that matter).

I support Wynn, and plan to support Murphy. Why, I even voted for him in the mock HOF vote. Puckett, I don't know how he will turn out, but I feel he needs a few more Puckett seasons.

WARP-1 seasons in descending order (94 means 9.4)

98 94 90 90 75 64 64 64 52 50 44 42 39 36 34 21 14 13 09 09 05 01 00 Kaat 1000

82 77 74 63 60 58 57 57 55 55 53 53 52 50 48 42 42 38 38 34 33 27 06 Sutton 1154

My system cares about the "good" seasons, which for this era tends to cut off in the low 60's. The other seasons do contribute to the final number on career, but the bottom line is that Sutton has no "star-power" and Kaat does, and Sutton's career edge does not quite make up for that (Kaat also had a long career). Both of these players are highly unusual, Kaat for the large number of sub-par seasons outside of his best, and the dispersion of that best over time, Sutton for the large number of slightly above average seasons.

1994 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election. Unless I get an unforeseen wealth of free time to update my spreadsheet, I am going to continue to vote based on the data I have currently collected.

1) Phil Niekro
Clearly the number one eligible player this year, among the top 15 pitchers of all-time.

2) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got a little more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

3) Ted Simmons
I’m torn between Simmons and Sutton. In the end I give Ted the slight edge. Counting all HoM eligibles through the 2006 election, I’ve got him as the #11 catcher--ahead of Mackey, behind Torre (or Cochrane, if you don't consider Torre "entirely" a catcher).

4) Don Sutton
Not a great peak, but very good career numbers. Easily an HoMer by my standards—between Lyons and Marichal.

5) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super (albeit better than Beckley), but 102.7 career is respectable.

6) Quincy Trouppe
I’ve bumped up my estimates for him slightly, which, on this tight ballot, moves him up from #12 last year. With the new rank, he’s thirteenth all-time among catchers (that's both pre- and post-integration), slightly behind Biz Mackey.

7) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

8) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

9) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

10) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

11) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

12) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

13) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

14) Ken Singleton
Funny how a guy who conjures up such a divergent image of a “type” of player when compared to Bobby Bonds can put up such similar overall career and peak value—both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3.

15) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).


The Rest of the Top 50
16) Bill Monroe—Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.
17) Jimmy Ryan—As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part 1).
18) Gavy Cravath—A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.
19) Dizzy Trout
20) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
21) Sam Rice
22) Nellie Fox—I don’t see a huge difference between Fox and Bill Monroe. He could easily make my ballot in future elections.
23) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back.
24) Tommy Leach
25) Rabbit Maranville
26) Norm Cash
27) Jim Kaat
28) Reggie Smith
29) Buzz Arlett
30) Jim Wynn—Decent career and peak numbers, he comes out as something of a ‘tweener in my system. The Toy Cannon is not all that far behind OFs ranked higher, in absolute terms, it’s just a tight ballot.
31) Charlie Keller— Even with his peak and the war credit, it’s just not enough combined to get him on my ballot.
32) Burleigh Grimes
33) Jack Quinn
34) Edd Roush—Bonus hold-out credit moves him up a bit, but not all that close to the ballot.
35) Bob Elliot
36) Jose Cruz—Add another solid OF to the mix. I don’t see anything outstanding enough to rank him higher, though.
37) Harry Hooper
38) Dave Concepcion—The divergence between WARP (pretty good) and Win Shares (blah) has me ranking him perhaps a bit conservatively. This really isn’t all that far from making the bottom of the ballot.
39) Ron Cey
40) Vada Pinson
41) Phil Rizzuto
42) Alejandro Oms
43) Hugh Duffy
44) Orlando Cepeda
45) Cesar Cedeno
46) Bus Clarkson
47) Lou Brock
48) Vern Stephens
50) Dom DiMaggio

Notable Newcomers:
147) Ron Guidry
XXX) Bruce Sutter—waaaay off the radar screen.

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Rollie Fingers— I may be underrating relievers as a whole, but I modified my rankings to help closers/firemen when I originally had Wilhelm well below most other voters. Those adjustments help Rollie, but currently I can’t see adjusting them more to bring him closer to my ballot. I like Goose Gossage a lot more.
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him falling farther and farther behind the real ballot contenders.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

Sutton was a very good pitcher. There is no denying that fact. But he also benefited from a great park to pitch in, fine offenses backing him up and conditions that made it easier to have a long career than in any other time. There is no denying that fact, either (though some may on my latter point :-). It still gets him close enough to my ballot, but not close enough

I find it hard to understand a win share based argument that doesn't support his induction, unless it is based on his total lack of "dominant seasons". I believe that he has more (16) "better than average seasons than any pitcher in history" (using 100+ ERA and 150 IP as a critrtia for an average season). And he does have 324 career wins which may be a misleading stat in many ways, but is still very impressive.

4. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

I can see Brock getting in the Hall of Fame on the strenght of 3,023 hits and 938 SB, but the Hall of Merit is another thing. His 938/307 SB/CS ratio did not help his team. His power was negligent and his defense was very bad.

His highest WARP season was 7.7 and his total career WARP 88.2. He simply didn't contribute much to winning. He was a lot more flash than substance. This can work for the Hall of Fame but shouldn't get a guy into the Hall of Merit.

Graig Nettles: I prefer both Bando and Cey

Why would you want to do that?

Graig Nettles.....10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2..(46.4)....107.2
Ron Cey...........10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0..(47.4).....96.6
Sal Bando..........9.4, 8.5, 8.4, 7.9, 7.5..(43.7).....83.2

Whether Nettles deserves induction is open to debate, but he clearly had a better career than either Cey or Bando.

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.

What does "not yet sufficiently mature" mean, other than you don't want to use them.

10) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do.

OK - I'll bite. What is the value of stolen bases?

we’ve elected all the great hitters, how about the great gloves?

Doesn't great hitting win a lot more games than great fielding. As relative contributors to team victories: offense = 50%, pitching 40%, and defense 10%.

Short answer? Kaat has a better prime (at least the way I measure it).

Sutton versus Kaat comparision:

Don Sutton.....8.3, 7.6, 7.3, 6.2, 6.0....(35.3)...115.3
Jim Kaat.......9.6, 9.1, 8.8, 8.6, 7.1....(43.2)....96.3

So Kaat's peak is 22% better, while Sutton's overall value is 20% better. A lot of Sutton's value is in simply being a little better than average, which on some level is easier to replace than all-star level performance.

I guess there needs to some sort of definition attached to "merit". Is there merit to a 110 ERA+ over 200 IP, or does a pitcher need to contribute at a 120+ level before he is earning "merit points". It's the different way that people answer that question that leads to widely varying opinions of Sutton's credentials.

1994 ballot from this highly career voter (with a fairly low replacement level):

1. Phil Niekro - way underrated, has IP in spades, sorry he had to wait
2. Jake Beckley - luv the career, though peakless
3. Don Sutton - see my posts in his thread; very high career value
4. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
5. Graig Nettles - I am surprised by his lack of support
6. Ted Simmons - poor-to-middling defensive catcher, but sure could hit
7. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/minor lg credit)
8. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career (where's the luv?)
9. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman for a long time
10. Tony Perez - good career though he was only an adequate 3B defensively
11. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career (similar to Perez)
12. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
13. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
14. Jimmy Wynn - tremendously underrated player
15. Charlie Keller - slowly inching his way up my ballot
----------
16-20 Roush, CJones, RSmith, Klein, Maranville

Not voting for Trouppe (around 100th) and Fingers (around 50th).

I believe that he has more (16) "better than average seasons than any pitcher in history" (using 100+ ERA and 150 IP as a critrtia for an average season).

Walter, Cy, and Pete all say, "excuse me."

"Is there merit to a 110 ERA+ over 200 IP, or does a pitcher need to contribute at a 120+ level before he is earning "merit points". It's the different way that people answer that question that leads to widely varying opinions of Sutton's credentials."

Right, and with Beckley, it's 'what are a bunch of 120-130 OPS+ seasons worth?' A wide variety of opinions.

kwarren - how would you vote?

I was going to ask kwarren the same thing. From his posts, it appear he would just line the players up based on their WARP scores.

I find it hard to understand a win share based argument that doesn't support his induction, unless it is based on his total lack of "dominant seasons". I believe that he has more (16) "better than average seasons than any pitcher in history" (using 100+ ERA and 150 IP as a critrtia for an average season). And he does have 324 career wins which may be a misleading stat in many ways, but is still very impressive.

First of all, kwarren, I don't follow Win Shares (or any analytical system, for that matter) blindly. They all have faults that I do my best to correct, if possible.

Secondly, I weigh WS/162 equally with a player's career WS (season WS and WS/162 if I'm looking at a particular year).

Thirdly, I have posted on the discussion thread (where discussions such as this belong for the future, BTW) and other places that the pitchers who started their ML careers during the mid-Sixties had a huge advantage in career length because of relatively less wear-and-tear on their young arms compared to other generations. Now, I possibly may be overcompensating for this phenomena, but there is no way that this monster outlier was just chance or coincidence, IMO.

Lastly, the number "300" doesn't sway me at all. It's purely arbitray as 3,000 hits is.

With that said, Sutton is still not that far off from my ballot. There was a surplus of quality pitchers during his time.

1994 ballot

PHOM: Niekro, Simmons, and Dean with Oms, Fingers, and Willis on deck.

1. Phil Neikro (4, PHOM) – Was just behind Rose, Jackson, and Carlton last year. My spotting him above Keller should show how what I think of him.

2. Charlie Keller (2, PHOM) – Best peak on the board (outside of McCovey). If you give him WWII and MiL credit he could have up to 7 MVP level seasons (30+ WS) and two solid All-star level seasons. That’s almost a decade of high level performance, only Joe D, Teddy Ballgame, and Stan the Man were better during his era.

3. Hugh Duffy (3, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections. That said, I still think WS overrates Duffy’s peak for other reasons.

4. Dick Redding (4, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

5. Bucky Walters (5, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

6. Ted Simmons (x, PHOM) – I am probably placing him lower than the group though I still believe that he is an easy HOMer. I have him below Freehan (whose peak and full career at catcher I love) and above Torre. I think one reason why I ‘have him so low’ is that I do not give a big catcher bonus to players who play full seasons by playing other positions. In some seasons this doesn’t effect Simmons, he caught 140-150 games, but in others he only caught 110 or so games with 50 games in the OF. As a peak voter who values in season durability and gives catcher bonuses to ‘make up’ for their only playing 120 or so games a year, this is important. However, he isn’t hurt as much as Torre was, but he was no Freehan.

7. Jimmy Wynn (7, PHOM) – Very similar to guys like Doby, Averill, and Berger. That’s two HOMers and a guy in my top 30. Very nice peak and a decent prime, not much career, but then again I am not too worried about filler seasons. Underrated historically in large part due to his home park, the Astrodome. I wonder how he would have looked in an era where a lower replacement level meant great players had more great seasons.

8. Quincey Trouppe (8, PHOM) – We elected the wrong NeL catcher, it is that simple. Trouppe was a better hitter and was a better player at his best than Biz Mackey was.

9. Elston Howard (9, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

10. Pete Browning (11, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me. Our recent discussion on Charley Jones has made me realize that Browning has many of the same problems Jones does and so he falls a few spots.

11. Gavvy Cravath (12, PHOM) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

12. Dizzy Dean (13) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.

13. Alejandro Oms (14) – I see him as similar to, but slightly better than, George Van Haltren. I also prefere Oms to HOMer Willard Brown. He had a low peak but it was a long one that accrued value in the Billy Williams/Al Kaline mold.

14. Rollie Fingers (15) – Not 100% sure what to do with him. Out of the relievers we have seen thus far I would have to agree that he is second to Wilhelm. Out of the relievers that we can look at I only prefer Wilhelm and Gossage. If he isn’t elected this year, I could seem him moving wildly as we look at more relievers.

15. Vic Willis (18) – First time on my ballot. He made a jump into my top 25 about 30 or 40 years ago and now I have finally decided to vote for him. He has a great DERA and he was a horse for some very good pitching staff

16-20 Sutton, Bresnahan, Doyle, GVH, Fox
21-25 Shocker, Rosen, Roush, Leach, McGraw
26-30 C. Jones, Berger, Elliot, Kaat, Newcombe
31-35 Rizzuto, F. Howard, Bando, Tiant, Burnns
36-40 Cepeda, Singleton, Chance, Munson, Tenace
41-45 Veach, Lundy, H.Wilson, Bancroft, Thomas
46-50Concepcion, Perez, Monroe, Ryan, Stephens

Required Disclosures:
Fox – I haven’t voted for him yet, but his current spot (#20) is about as high as he has been. In the same boat as Pierce when it comes to my PHOM. I guess my biggest concern is his lack of a bat.

Beckley – Not in my top 60 (I stop ranking players at that point) and most likely not in my top 75. I think that HOMers should have spent at least some of their career as one of the best in baseball and Beckley is not even in the top 10 in any season. His best years came not in the 10 team NL but before and after and a team with him as their best player is highly unlikely to win a pennant. Need I continue?

Roush – Good player, but I think not playing full seasons for whatever reason really hurts his peak. Has moved up a little in my re-eval. Better than Carey, Bell, and Minoso, however.

C. Jones – I do not give Jones full credit for his missing years as I believe that he was not some innocent that was done in by the big, bad man. There is a chance that he acted the way he did in order to sever ties with Boston, in which case the league had some reason for acting the way that it did. However, I do give him one full season of credit (which in my system is better than two half seasons)because he wasn’t the only guilty party. Even with credit there are many other questions like league strength, deviations from the mean, and extrapolating 60-80 game seasons into 162 game seasons. All of these cause some downward pressure on Jones best seasons (as well as some upward pressure on some of his worst) and pull him down a bit. I have to say that I can see no way in which he is better than Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, or even Gavvy Cravath. Not the worst choice we will have made, but I think he gets a boost because he was hard done by and that really isn’t fair to other players.

Newbies:

Sutton – Just off my ballot. For a peak voter I am susceptible to long career pitchers. I think he is right there with Eppa Rixey and is a likely PHOM choice in a few years.

Cey - #57, very good but never great player. He is just behind Pie Traynor for me.

Concepcion – If all I looked at were WS, Concepcion would not be in my top 100. However, I think that WS does underrate him some, but not as much as Dan R’s analysis would indicate. I have him very similar to, but just behind Dave Bancroft, two slick fielding SS’s who played in era’s that weren’t rich in that position.

Sutter – Not too big of a fan. I like Fingers a lot more and I will like Eckersly, Gossage, and Quisenberry more. A BBWAA mistake, pure and simple. On the bright side he does gives us Pennsylvania Dutch something to brag about!

Nettles – Right there with Cey

kwarren - how would you vote?

97. Daryn Posted: February 09, 2007 at 08:44 AM (#2294658)
I was going to ask kwarren the same thing. From his posts, it appear he would just line the players up based on their WARP scores.

Niekro and Simmons for sure, and likely Sutton (depending on how important a factor short term dominance is deemed to be). Nettles deserves a lot more consideration than he is getting, but it's not clear that he should be inducted.

If there is a better way to compare players at different positions, in different ball parks, across different eras, I would be happy to use it. From what I can gather there is nothing out there remotely close. A lot of people out there seem to have home made systems that incorporate their particular biases regarding peak versus longevity, relief pitchers and leverage, war time credit, varying talent pools, strength of leagues etc. These systems are obviously fun and interesting but don't focus on "wins". Any objective system that focuses on wins (WARP & Win Shares) usually give similar results. The one thing that has always constant in baseball is "it is wins that count". The more games you won for your team the better you are.

When people start looking at things such as hits, stolen bases, defensive reputation, black ink, Hall of Fame Monitor points, MYP awards and voting, Cy Young Award voting, BA, ERA, RBI, saves, leverage, and war or injury credit for games players never played they are giving into the biases in the way that writers and journalists view and percieve baseball performance...which I presumed that the whole concept of the Hall of Merit was to overcome.