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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Sunday, February 11, 20071994 Results: The Hall of Merit Makes Way For Niekro, Simmons and Sutton!In his second year of eligibility, legendary knuckleballer Phil Niekro shined among the candidates with a super 98% of all possible points for induction into the Hall of Merit. First-year candidate and star catcher Ted Simmons scored an impressive 82% of all possible points to win the second spot for election. Another newbie, Dodger great Don Sutton, nabbed the third spot for HoM immortality with 49% of all possible points. 95 candidates made it to at least one ballot, breaking the 1991 record by 1. Rounding out the top-ten were: Quincy Trouppe, Jimmy Wynn, Charlie Keller, Nellie Fox, Edd Roush, Pete Browning and Rollie Fingers. RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 4 Phil Niekro 1300 55 52 1 1 1 2 n/e Ted Simmons 1076 54 27 9 4 4 4 2 1 1 2 3 n/e Don Sutton 647 38 6 10 3 5 3 3 3 1 1 2 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 5 Quincy Trouppe 390 29 3 2 4 2 1 5 6 1 2 2 1 5 7 Jimmy Wynn 369 33 1 3 4 2 4 4 1 5 2 3 4 6 9 Charlie Keller 354 25 1 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 7 6 Nellie Fox 345 25 2 2 3 1 3 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 8 8 Edd Roush 324 24 1 1 3 3 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 9 12 Pete Browning 305 22 2 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 4 3 10 10 Rollie Fingers 262 20 2 1 1 1 3 2 1 2 1 5 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 11 Cannonball Dick Redding 260 20 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 12 14 Bob Johnson 256 21 1 1 2 3 2 1 1 5 1 3 1 13 13 Jake Beckley 256 19 1 1 2 2 1 4 1 2 2 3 14 18 Charley Jones 253 16 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 15 15 Bucky Walters 238 18 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 16 16 Tony Perez 227 15 2 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 1 17 17 Hugh Duffy 222 15 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 2 18 19 Gavvy Cravath 174 17 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 2 3 1 19 20 Alejandro Oms 174 16 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 20 21T George Van Haltren 162 12 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 21 21T Roger Bresnahan 161 12 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 22 23 Tommy Leach 156 13 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 23 31 Dizzy Dean 131 10 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 24 n/e Graig Nettles 130 12 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 25 25 Rusty Staub 130 10 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 26 24 Burleigh Grimes 129 11 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 27 36 John McGraw 121 9 2 1 1 2 2 1 28 37 Mickey Welch 117 9 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 29 26 Luis Tiant 107 11 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 30 33 Larry Doyle 106 7 1 2 1 2 1 31 28 Norm Cash 105 9 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 32 29 Lou Brock 103 9 2 1 2 1 2 1 33 27 Orlando Cepeda 100 9 1 1 3 2 1 1 34 35 Bob Elliott 94 10 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 35 46 Reggie Smith 91 8 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 36 30 Ken Singleton 90 9 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 37 32 Bobby Bonds 90 8 1 2 2 2 1 38 38 Elston Howard 89 9 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 39 39 Phil Rizzuto 89 7 1 1 1 2 1 1 40 41T Vic Willis 83 7 2 1 1 2 1 41 n/e Dave Concepción 77 5 1 1 1 1 1 42 34 Tommy Bridges 73 6 2 1 1 1 1 43 40 Sal Bando 71 7 1 2 2 1 1 44 41T Carl Mays 62 5 2 1 2 45 56 Dave Bancroft 61 7 1 2 1 1 2 46 48T Pie Traynor 61 4 1 1 1 1 47 51 Ron Cey 55 5 2 1 1 1 48 43 Ben Taylor 54 4 1 1 1 1 49 44 Vern Stephens 50 5 1 1 2 1 50 50 Addie Joss 49 4 1 1 1 1 51 61 Chuck Klein 45 3 1 1 1 52 52 Bill Monroe 42 4 1 1 1 1 53T 53 Jimmy Ryan 41 4 1 1 2 53T 48T Ed Williamson 41 4 1 2 1 55 59T Tony Oliva 41 3 1 1 1 56T 62T Lefty Gomez 37 3 1 1 1 56T 45 Wally Schang 37 3 1 1 1 58 57 Fred Dunlap 35 2 1 1 59 n/e Bruce Sutter 34 3 1 1 1 60 59T Frank Chance 33 3 1 1 1 61T 72 Sam Rice 31 3 1 1 1 61T 66T Al Rosen 31 3 1 1 1 63 55 Jim Kaat 30 2 1 1 64T 54 Ed Cicotte 29 3 1 1 1 64T 66T Gene Tenace 29 3 1 2 66 47 Thurman Munson 28 3 1 1 1 67 58 Frank Howard 26 3 2 1 68T 65 Ernie Lombardi 22 2 1 1 68T 62T Dizzy Trout 22 2 1 1 70 n/e Luke Easter 22 1 1 71 74T Bus Clarkson 21 3 1 1 1 72T 66T Luis Aparicio 21 2 1 1 72T 69 Rabbit Maranville 21 2 1 1 74 76T Tony Mullane 20 2 1 1 75 70 Don Newcombe 17 2 1 1 76 62T Urban Shocker 16 2 1 1 77 73 Wilbur Cooper 15 1 1 78 74T George J. Burns 14 2 2 79 76T Fielder Jones 14 1 1 80T 79T Artie Wilson 13 1 1 80T 79T Tony Lazzeri 13 1 1 80T 76T Sam Leever 13 1 1 83 n/e Hack Wilson 11 1 1 84T 81T Dutch Leonard 10 1 1 84T 81T Cecil Travis 10 1 1 86 85T Kiki Cuyler 9 1 1 87 85T Mickey Vernon 8 1 1 88T n/e George Kell 7 1 1 88T n/e Herman Long 7 1 1 88T n/e Leroy Matlock 7 1 1 88T n/e Bill Mazeroski 7 1 1 88T n/e Virgil Trucks 7 1 1 88T 85T Bobby Veach 7 1 1 94T 84 Steve Garvey 6 1 1 94T n/e Bill Madlock 6 1 1 Dropped Out: Tommy Bond(81T), Jack Quinn(71). Ballots Cast: 55 John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy
Posted: February 11, 2007 at 08:51 PM | 154 comment(s)
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HOF-not-HOM through 1994
1 Aparicio, Luis
2. Bancroft, Dave
3. Beckley, Jake
4 Bender, Chief
5 Bottomley, Jim
6 Bresnahan, Roger
7 Brock, Lou
8 Chance, Frank
9 Chesbro, Jack
10 Combs, Earle
11 Cuyler, Kiki
12 Dandridge, Ray
13 Dean, Dizzy
14 Duffy, Hugh
15 Evers, Johnny
16 Ferrell, Rick
17 Fingers, Rollie
18 Gomez, Lefty
19 Grimes, Burleigh
20 Hafey, Chick
21 Haines, Jesse
22 Hooper, Harry
23 Hoyt, Waite
24 Hunter, Catfish
25 Jackson, Travis
26 Johnson, Judy
27 Joss, Addie
28 Kell, George
29 Kelly, George
30 Klein, Chuck
31 Lazzeri, Tony
32 Lindstrom, Freddie
33 Lombardi, Ernie
34 Manush, Heinie
35 Maranville, Rabbit
36 Marquard, Rube
37 McCarthy, Tommy
38 McGraw, John
39 Pennock, Herb
40 Rice, Sam
41 Rizzuto, Phil
42 Roush, Edd
43 Schalk, Ray
44 Schoendienst, Red
45 Tinker, Joe
46 Traynor, Pie
47 Waner, Lloyd
48 Welch, Mickey
49 Wilson, Hack
50 Youngs, Ross
HOM-not-HOF
1 Allen, Dick
2 Ashburn, Richie
3 Barnes, Ross
4 Beckwith, John
5 Bennett, Charlie
6 Boyer, Ken
7 Brown, Ray
8 Brown, Willard
9 Bunning, Jim
10 Caruthers, Bob
11 Childs, Cupid
12 Dahlen, Bill
13 Davis, George
14 Doby, Larry
15 Ferrell, Wes
16 Foster, Willie
17 Freehan, Bill
18 Glasscock, Jack
19 Gordon, Joe
20 Gore, George
21 Grant, Frank
22 Grich, Bobby
23 Groh, Heinie
24 Hack, Stan
25 Hill, Pete
26 Hines, Paul
27 Jackson, Joe*
28 Johnson, Home Run
29 Mackey. Biz
30 Magee, Sherry
31 McPhee, Bid
32 McVey, Cal
33 Méndez, José
34 Minoso, Minnie
35 Moore, Dobie
36 Niekro, Phil
37 Pearce, Dickey
38 Pierce, Billy
39 Pike, Lip
40 Richardson, Hardy
41 Rogan, Bullet Joe
42 Rose, Pete*
43 Santo, Ron
44 Santop, Louis
45 Sheckard, Jimmy
46 Simmons, Ted
47 Start, Joe
48 Stearnes, Turkey
49 Stovey, Harry
50 Suttles, Mule
51 Sutton, Don
52 Sutton, Ezra
53 Torre, Joe
54 Torriente, Cristobal
55 Wells, Willie
56 White, Deacon
57 Williams, Smokey Joe
58 Wilson, Jud
* not eligible for the HOF
Carl G: +9
Howie Menckel: +6
Chris Cobb: +6
Esteban Rivera: +4
Andrew M: +4
andrew siegel: +4
DanG: +3
Mike Webber: +3
Devin McCullen: +3
Trevor P: +3
AJM: +3
...
OCF: 0
...
John Murphy: -2
...
Adam Schafer: -3 (median)
Dan R: -3
...
Rusty Priske: -7
rico vanian: -7
karlmagnus: -8
Al Peterson: -8
Mark Donelson: -9
KJOK: -9
Michael Bass: -10
rawagman: -10
jimd: -11
Jeff M: -12
yest: -27
Slightly above-average even without Sutton. Not too bad.
Redding moves within 2 pts of the top 10....CJones joins the top dozen.. Bresnahan and Leach climb together (don't they always?) to spots 16-17... Roush passes Moore, Rixey, and Caruthers for 21st... Cravath remains on path to claim the 25th and final spot before it's over, unless Fox somehow keeps up his support and yet still misses the HOM.
TOP 25, ALL-TIME
BECKLEY.... 24574
VAN HALTREN 24169.5
DUFFY...... 23664.5
BROWNING... 21175.5
Childs..... 18484
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
Jennings... 16976
WELCH...... 16437
Sisler..... 13892
REDDING.... 13890
CJONES..... 13498
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
Mendez..... 12555
BRESNAHAN.. 12384
TLEACH..... 12372
Thompson... 12349
RYAN....... 12192.5
Bennett.... 11503
ROUSH...... 10922
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
Beckwith.... 9896
OTHERS IN THE TOP 25 ACTIVE
(Cravath 8313, Doyle 8048, Walters 7543, Grimes 7379, Trouppe 7025, Monroe 6749, Fox 6485, Schang 5781, Oms 5711, Williamson 5653, Keller 5595, BJohnson 5555, McGraw 5547, Willis 4043)
not quite
Joss 3894, JWynn 3824, Dean 3545, Elliott 3476
Karl is the same as ever, the rest of us are just getting crazier.
Given that we are really getting short on peak candidates (as the voters have tended to be peakier of late), the high backlog is filling up with more career-oriented types. I wouldn't be surprised, therefore, to see karlmagnus closer to the center for a while than the really committed peak voters, at least until the balance of backlog candidates evens out a bit. Only the (fortunately) inimitable yest has managed to stay farther from the consensus than some of the extreme peak folks this time around.
With Charley Jones vacating the spot there is a notable gap above Cravath and Oms, suggesting to me fourteen viable incumbents through Duffy:
Quincy Trouppe, Nellie Fox, nine outfielder-1Bmen, and three pitchers
NOT who was best friend of Bob Elliott, but which voter was most like me (and most UNlike me?)
Was yest most UNlike everybody?
Noise. I wouldn't put too much stock in that unless the players in question are on the brink of induction.
Trouppe 6 weak supporters
Wynn 3
Keller 7
Fox 5
Roush 8
It doesn't look like Jimmy Wynn has the support to jump over Trouppe unless it's present in the non-voters. Things look pretty good for Edd Roush over the course of the next 3 ballots especially since most of his weak supporters like Wynn better. Once Wynn is elected he'll move onto ballots.
We have 39 slots available 1995 thru 2007. The BBWAA elected 18 guys during this period. 2 of them, Sutter and Perez, have not gotten the warmest of receptions here. Assuming we rubberstamp the rest (including Puckett), then there are 23 slots available for the backlog and the "newlog" of incoming non-HOF selections. Some of those guys appear to have significant support (the Evanses, Trammell, and Blyleven). That puts the viable backlog down perhaps as far as nineteen (Tommy Leach). Every spot that goes instead to a more marginal or controversial "newlogger" such as Whitaker, Gossage, or McGwire takes a slot away from a backlogger.
It's going to be an interesting 9 months.
Quincy Trouppe, Nellie Fox, nine outfielder-1Bmen, and three pitchers
Looking at this from the point of "arm/bat/glove" balance. The existing HOM is about 56/71/65 compared to an "ideal" 58/67/67. The BBWAA selections have a strong "glove" bias (though they certainly could hit). I peg them as 2/5/9 (counting both Yount and Molitor as half-and-half). Adding in Blyleven et al, and the count is 59/77/76 compared to "ideal" 64/74/74; HOM is a little light on pitching but pretty balanced overall.
However, as Paul points out, the high backlog is heavy on the bats. A HOM with 30% pitching, and 35% each of bats and gloves yields a 69/81/81 distribution. Given the apparent shortage of new pitching candidates upcoming and the lack of popular old pitching candidates in the backlog, it would appear that the pitching will fall a bit short, but not by a statistically significant amount, with the backlog bats taking up the slack.
Adam Schafer: Carl G 64, ronw 27, yest 25
AJM: Thane of Bagarth 82, Jeff M 24, yest 22
Al Peterson: KJOK 64, Jeff M 24, yest 18
Andrew M: Carl G 79, Jeff M 35, yest 27
andrew siegel: Chris Cobb 79, Howie Menckel 37, yest 15
Brent: Mike Webber 67, karlmagnus 32, yest 19
Carl G: Howie Menckel 80, jimd 42, yest 25
Chris Cobb: Carl G 79, jimd 42, yest 18
This is going to be time consuming to list them all; jumping ahead:
OCF: Devin McCullen 68, Jeff M 22, yest 14
TomH: Trevor P 69, mulder & scully 31, yest 20
yest: rico vanian 55; KJOK, Michael Bass, Tiboreau each 9
rico vanian: SWW 71, mulder & scully 27
SWW: Don F 73, mulder & scully 27 (yest 30)
- more later
and I never knew Trevor was THAT insightful!
The single highest agreement is an 88.
Dan Rosenheck: 'zop 88, Brent 33, yest 18
'zop: Dan R 88, rawagman 31, yest 14
BEST FRIENDS
Sean Gilman 73
Mulder & Scully 65
Mike Webber 61
Rick A 61
Andrew M. 60
MOST AVERAGEST BEST FRIENDS (47 is my average)
AJM 48
David Foss 48
Jeff M 46
jimd 46
Michael Bass 46
LEAST BEST BEST FRIENDS
Rob Wood 28
Patrick W 28
Rico Vanian 29
Jim Sp 33
Tom D 33
SWW 33
MY YESTEST FRIEND
Yest 17
BEST
Devin McCullen 68
Tom D 65
andrew siegel 65
Andrew M 65
Trevor P 65
AVERAGEST
Adam Schafer 51
Howie Menckel 51
favre 51
dan b 51
(I have 19 other voters between 47 and 55 - a lot of packing into the middle)
LEAST
rawagman 40
Rick A 40
Max Parkinson 38
Jim Sp 38
Mark Donelson 35
Jeff M 22
yest 14
(So yest is an outlier but Jeff M is also something of an outlier for me.)
It keeps changing. The most prolific poster keeps making bold statements with high hubris that aren't backed up very well, someone will point out the flaw in his statement by saying "A", but then the debate will completely shift gears and fixate on "A" (or how "A" is worded). More unbacked up bold statements follow and the cycle continues.
It went on for a very long time on how slow Ken Singleton was and how much he hurt the Orioles with his bad baserunning.
There's a certain level of smack talk, but it doesn't really appear that mean-spirited (or at least people are being more dismissive of each other rather than taking things too personally). It's intellectually frustrating to read though. I used to read usenet debates back in rec.sport.baseball's heyday several years ago. There was a very low signal to noise level there, but you could learn some cool stuff sifting through the junk and focusing on a few extremely knowledgeable posters. I'm not getting the same feeling reading that thread, though. Maybe others would disagree, though.
That sounds like Kevin, is it? I bet it is.
Poster A then started to use "modern" "advanced stats (WARP/RC)" to compare Rice to various compatriots. B responded with number of r, hr, and tb. A brought up context for Rice and Fenway and for comparison's sake, Singleton. B disregarded context, league and ballpark both, for absolute totals. A brought various players who were better using advanced metrics. B "but they weren't as feared." "their counting numbers aren't as good."
At some point, Rice is called "one of the most feared."
At some point, Rice and Singleton are compared for all around play and Singleton is found wanting by B, but all admit Brett and Schmidt were better from 1977-1980. While Fenway's hitting context is ignored by B, B does bring up the Green Monster in defense of Rice's defense.
Some discussion by B that Rice reached special numbers - 400 tb, 420 RC in 3 years, hr numbers, xbh numbers with A replying that several other players had similar totals in the same period and Rice had more PA than others.
Some discussion of MVP voting.
In the 200s, some posters begin to bring up various facts about context.
Mark Donelson (sp?) is called a d ick head by B for some reason.
Around 275, I make a comment that I want there to be a separate argument thread for non-HoM voters/posters to come and continue long-time flame wars so I won't waste 90 minutes reading a long thread with little actual information in it.
By the time I wake up, (1 yr. olds with the flu, fun times :) ) the thread is in the 350s and I didn't go back until just now.
Around the 400s, there is some interesting information about the radical difference in run scoring between Fenway in the late 70s vs. Memorial Stadium.
That's more than 5 seconds, but ...
Oh, and if anyone wants to know the Secret to the book The Secret, let me know.
Shhhh...
What is is?
At some point in time I asked whether anyone was voting for Rice and had an argument for him. No one responded for a bout 50-100 posts, then our good friend Daryn bravely waded in. And that was the last time I saw anyone making a case for Rice instead of just arguing to argue.
Perhaps best if we never, ever talk about it again.... ; 0
- Which weighs more: a pound of feathers or a pound of lead?
- Which makes you deader: an arrow shot into your heart or a nuclear bomb?
Are there more?
Yeah, perhaps I've sifted through too many usenet flame wars. Certainly a few harsh insults in there that m&s mentioned that came from out in left field. If our regular discussion threads became like that, we'd definitely lose contributor participation.
- Why would a Wookiee, an eight-foot tall Wookiee, want to live on Endor, with a bunch of two-foot tall Ewoks?
HoMers in bold
all HoFers with significant playing careers are included
1936
Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson
1937
Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Cy Young , Connie Mack, John McGraw, George Wright
1938
Pete Alexander
1939
George Sisler , Eddie Collins , Willie Keeler , Lou Gehrig, Cap Anson , Charlie Comiskey , Candy Cummings , Buck Ewing , Charles Radbourn , Al Spalding
1942
Rogers Hornsby
1945
Roger Bresnahan , Dan Brouthers , Fred Clarke , Jimmy Collins , Ed Delahanty , Hugh Duffy , Hughie Jennings , King Kelly , Jim O’Rourke , Wilbert Robinson
1946
Jesse Burkett , Frank Chance , Jack Chesbro , Johnny Evers , , Clark Griffith, , Tommy McCarthy , Joe McGinnity , Eddie Plank , Joe Tinker , Rube Waddell , Ed Walsh
1947
Carl Hubbell , Frankie Frisch , Mickey Cochrane , Lefty Grove
1948
Herb Pennock , Pie Traynor
1949
Charlie Gehringer , Mordecai Brown , Kid Nichols
1951
Mel Ott , Jimmie Foxx
1952
Harry Heilmann , Paul Waner
1953
Al Simmons , Dizzy Dean , Chief Bender , Bobby Wallace , Harry Wright
1954
Rabbit Maranville , Bill Dickey , Bill Terry
1955
Joe DiMaggio , Ted Lyons , Dazzy Vance , Gabby Hartnett , Frank Baker , Ray Schalk
1956
Hank Greenberg , Joe Cronin
1957
Sam Crawford
1959
Zack Wheat
1961
Max Carey , Billy Hamilton
1962
Bob Feller , Jackie Robinson , Bill McKechnie , Edd Roush
1963
John Clarkson , Elmer Flick , Sam Rice , Eppa Rixey
1964
Luke Appling , Red Faber , Burleigh Grimes , Miller Huggins , Tim Keefe , Heinie Manush , Monte Ward
1965
Pud Galvin
1966
Ted Williams , Casey Stengel
1967
Red Ruffing , Lloyd Waner
1968
Joe Medwick , Kiki Cuyler , Goose Goslin
1969
Stan Musial, Roy Campanella , Stan Coveleski , , Waite Hoyt,
1970
Lou Boudreau , Earle Combs , Jesse Haines,
1971
Dave Bancroft , Jake Beckley , Chick Hafey , Harry Hooper , Joe Kelley , Rube Marquard , Satchel Paige
1972
Sandy Koufax , Yogi Berra ,Early Wynn, Lefty Gomez , Ross Youngs , Josh Gibson , Buck Leonard
1973
Warren Spahn , George Kelly , Mickey Welch , Monte Irvin , Roberto Clemente
1974
Mickey Mantle , Whitey Ford , Jim Bottomley , Sam Thompson , Cool Papa Bell
1975
Ralph Kiner , Earl Averill , Bucky Harris , Billy Herman , Judy Johnson
1976
Robin Roberts, Bob Lemon , Roger Connor , Freddy Lindstrom , Oscar Charleston
1977
Ernie Banks ,Amos Rusie , Joe Sewell , Al Lopez , Martin Dihigo , Pop Lloyd
1978
Eddie Mathews, Addie Joss
1979
Willie Mays , Hack Wilson
1980
Al Kaline, Duke Snider, Chuck Klein
1981
Bob Gibson, Johnny Mize , Rube Foster
1982
Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Travis Jackson
1983
Brooks Robinson, Juan Marichal, George Kell
1984
Luis Aparicio, Harmon Killebrew, Don Drysdale, Rick Ferrell , Pee Wee Reese
1985
Hoyt Wilhelm, Lou Brock, Enos Slaughter , Arky Vaughan
1986
Willie McCovey, Bobby Doerr, Ernie Lombardi
1987
Billy Williams, Catfish Hunter, Ray Dandridge
1988
Willie Stargell
1989
Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, Red Schoendienst
1990
Jim Palmer , Joe Morgan
1991
Rod Carew, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins , Tony Lazzeri
1992
Tom Seaver, Rollie Fingers, Hal Newhouser
1993
Reggie Jackson
1994
Steve Carlton, Leo Durocher , Phil Rizzuto
1995
Leon Day , Vic Willis , Richie Ashburn
1996
Jim Bunning, Bill Foster , Ned Hanlon
1997
Phil Niekro, Nellie Fox, Willie Wells
1998
Don Sutton, George Davis , Larry Doby , Joe Rogan
1999
Orlando Cepeda, Joe Williams
2000
Tony Perez, Bid McPhee , Turkey Stearnes
2001
Bill Mazeroski , Hilton Smith
2006
Ray Brown, Willard Brown, Andy Cooper, Biz Mackey, Mule Suttles, Cristobal Torriente, Jud Wilson, Frank Grant, Pete Hill, Jose Mendez Louis Santop, Ben Taylor, Sol White
That does not make sense! :)
No posts on that thread in a few hours...is it winding down?
Has this project now officially changed forever?
Maybe I'm fooling myself, but I think this particular incident may be sui generis. I suppose other borderline players from certain teams (mainly NY and Boston) could bring that out again--perhaps when Mattingly comes up?
I found the average friend-of score for each voter, and then compared my friend-of score to their average. That way, it accounts for the fact that some pople are very hi- or low-consensus in general. Trevor is my closest voting comp by actual ballot, but he is often close to consensus. The voter who is relatively speaking closest to me is Rob Wood, while Rawagman is furthest away (gee, he seems like such a nice guy, too...)
I haven't run everyone yet, but for OCF, Tom D is your closest, while Jeff M is furthest away.
Yest: closest rico vanian, furthest andrew siegel
A vote for Hugh Duffy, Ben Taylor and Lefty Gomez = a vote for being nice!
Contrast the Rice thread with the really interesting discussion of Darrell Evans. Day and night, night and day.
but definitely NOT a vote intended to brown-nose TomH....
STATE TOTAL------------
al 10
ar 2
ca 12
ct 2
cub 3
dom 1
fl 3
ga 6
ia 6
id 1
il 5
in 5
ks 1
ky 3
la 4
ma 6
md 6
me 1
mi 6
mo 6
ms 1
nc 6
ne 4
nj 4
nm 1
ny 26
oh 9
ok 5
pue 1
pa 18
pan 1
ri 2
sc 2
tn 2
tx 12
va 3
wa 2
wi 2
wv 2
39 states or countries are currently represented.
No real surprises here. NY and PA were known to be breeding grounds for baseball, particularly before 1930ish. AL owes its demographic primarily to NgL era players of color, while CA and TX are a little more mixed affair. I live in Maine, but the inconvenient truth is the only HOMer from Maine is Mr. Gore.
Trouppe
Keller
1/2 of Johnson, OK, a little less than 1/2
Elliott
2/3 of Rizzuto
A bit of Bridges, I think
Vern Stephens
Bits of Gomez, Lombardi, Clarkson, A. Wilson, Trucks
Luke Easter
Trout
Travis
Clearly there are voters who don't give war credit and they need it.
If we had a mock-ballot containing only candidates who had 5 seasons played during the 1940's maybe we could come to a consensus on order of those candidates.
Here's mine
1) Bob Johnson
2) Tommy Bridges
3) Quincy Trouppe
4) Virgil Trucks
5) Bus Clarkson
6) Dutch Leonard
7) Bob Elliott
8) Charlie Keller
9) Dizzy Trout
10) Luke Easter
11) Hilton Smith
12) Bobo Newsom
13) Tommy Henrich
14) Chuck Klein
15) Bucky Walters
16-20) Vern Stephens, Mickey Vernon, Augie Galan, Dom Dimaggio, Johnny Pesky
21-23) Phil Rizzuto, Ernie Lombardi, Ray Dandridge
Won an MVP award. Then finished 3rd the next year. Reds won back-to-back pennants, first itme in 20 yrs and last time in 20 yrs.
prime run of ERA+: 168 152 127 123 93 146 140 131. The first 3 years he threw over 300 IPs. Yes, his defense helped.
A GREAT hitter for a pitcher. Lifetime OPS of 630.
Above-average fielder as well.
Compares favorably to other backlog pitchers by both win shares and WARP.
And, in his prime he often faced the best opponents. Dag Nabbit used to post something he called MOWP - Median Opponent Winning Percentage. It showed that Walters was often used against pennant rivals, so really his ERA and W-L records could have been better than they were. Unfortunately I don't see an active link for that data. But it builds his case beyond any other measure most of us use.
He is the Jimmy Wynn of pitchers (without the park effects damage clause), or possibly Ed Roush - lots of strengths that add up to a good case.
Right now I'm thinking Rizzuto makes it (PHoM) (Keller is already in) and Pesky just misses. That leaves Trouppe and Walters as the borderliners borderliners. But I'm not sure Easter doesn't leapfrog Trouppe someday, especially if Doc keeps working on me with those 377 WS he's projecting. Clarkson needs some work like that, and Estalella, a couple other diamonds in the rough if you aks me.
But based on DL's '40s ballot vs. mine (both from the same state no less), no wonder we aren't electing any of these guys.
1. Keller
2. Rizzuto
3. Trouppe
4. Walters
5. Pesky
6. Clarkson
7. Klein
8. Elliott
9. Stephens
10. Easter
11. Estalella
12. Bridges
13. Johnson
14. H. Smith
15. Lombardi
HM--Marvin Williams, Travis, Vernon, Trucks, Bill Byrd (is he '40s?), Artie Wilson (if he's '40s but I think he's '50s), ditto Ellis Kinder (ie. '50s?)
Hate to tell you, but it was HOFs not HOMs, within the context of discussion of whether the HOF should do a special comittee on the 19th C.
Essentially we've been drawing thus far on a pool of players that are 1870-1980. No strictly 1980s guy has been elected as yet. Through 1979, we're drawing on 2107 team seasons, and we have 184 HOMers in the sample. So about 8.7% of all team seasons. Here's the census data for each decade and how far over or under average they are.
DECADE TM SEASONS HOMers % TM SEASONS +/------------------------------------------------------------
1871-1880 79 10.5 13% +3.7
1881-1890 151 16.5 11% +3.4
1891-1900 120 15.5 13% +5.1
1901-1910 160 12.5 8% -1.4
1911-1920 180 13 7% -2.7
1921-1930 274 21.5 8% -2.3
1930-1940 253 28 11% +6.0
1941-1950 276 15 5% -9.0
1951-1960 160 16.5 10% +2.6
1961-1970 206 21 10% +3.1
1971-1980 248 14 6% -7.6
OK, so by this rudimentary analysis, we're well over on the 19th C., a little under in the deadball era and the 1920s, well over in the 1930s, really under in the 1940s (as Sunny has noted), a little over in the 1950s and 1960s, and well under in the 1970s. Again some of this could be my own misapplication of decades, so take it as a general guideline, not a statement of fact.
Where is that list from sunny? Chris F's list in the 1995 ballot discussion (post #13) doesn't make it look too bad. 16 guys... same as 1890s and 1910s and only off by 1-2 players from the 1880s, 1900's, 1920s and 1950s. Of course, these are all endpoint dependent, but the decade choices seemed reasonable.
The list that I posted is a very simple (possibly even simplistic) breakdown of HoMers per decade. Each HoMer is assigned to one decade, usually based on the center or peak of their career. Dr. Chaleeko's list is based on the number of HoMer seasons per decade (if I understand it correctly). That approach has its obvious strengths, ie. Carl Yastrzemski's career is given weight in both the '60s and the '70s instead of being solely listed as part of one decade or another. However, I think that it is also going to automatically make the 1940s appear to be undervalued. Many of the HoMers who are listed as 1940s inductees are missing 1, 2 or 3 seasons due to military service. For example, Ted Williams counts once towards the 1940s in the simple listing, just as a Hank Aaron counts once towards the 1960s. But in Dr. C's list, Hank Aaron counts as 10 seasons played towards the 1960s, while Ted Williams counts only as 7 seasons played towards the 1940s. Most HoM voters take that into account and give out some form of war credit. Indeed, war credit was likely crucial to the elections of Joe Gordon, Bobby Doerr and Willard Brown. So we come close when we list players per decade (16 instead of 18), but naturally fall short when we list number of seasons. Personally, I'd be interested in seeing the chart adjusted to include war credit. What would it look like if we counted Williams and DiMaggio as 10 seasons instead of 7, and so on? Would the 1940s still be the most underrepresented decade?
Actually, the impression I get is that he does the simple decade assignment just as you do with a few splits for close calls.
For year-by-year analysis, we'd have to looks at Howie's old master lists. I don't know if he maintains stuff like that anymore. But yeah, war credit does funny things. It would increase the "1940s credit" for some unexpectant cases (e.g. Lyons & Ruffing). It might even make Greenburg a "40s guy"... though I would again be nitpicking decade assignments, there.
That's correct, DavidF, I'm doing the same thing, just adding a layer of sophistication to account for increased/decreased opportunity.
If things pan out, I'll try to put together a more comprehensive and "accurate" analysis of all this.
I meant to say
If things pan out this weekend, I'll try to put together a more comprehensive and "accurate" analysis of all this.
DECADE TM SEASONS HOMers % TM SEASONS +/------------------------------------------------------------
1941-1950 276 15 5% -9.0
1951-1960 160 16.5 10% +2.6
This says that we are short 9 HOMers from the 1940's, but have 2.6 extras in the 1950's? They have almost the same amount of HOMers!! And I would find it very difficult to come up with strong arguments for why the 1950's would have only 60% of the HOMers when compared to the 1940's. The study really needs to be based on player population pool or something else that varies much less by decade than the somewhat arbitrary "team seasons".
1856-59 - 1
1860-66 - 2
1867-71 - 4-6-8-9-10
1872-78 - 12
1879-81 - 16-17-20
1882-85 - 20 to 23
1886-89 - 24 to 25
1890-92 - 30 to 33
1893----- 28
1894-03 - 22 to 25
1906-08 - 25 to 28
1909-17 - 28 to 30
1918-20 - 24 to 28
1921-23 - 30-34-36
1924-41 - 41 to 47 (mostly 41-43)
1942----- 37
1943-45 - 26-22-20
1946-48 - 32
1949-53 - 25 to 27
1954-63 - 30 to 33
1964-70 - 33 to 35
1971-74 - 29 to 32
1975-79 - 26-24-20-18-17
1978-82 - 16 to 18
1983-87 - 14-11-9-8-5
shorter version:
1882-89 - 20 to 25
1890-92 - 30 to 33
1894-03 - 22 to 25
1906-20 - 24 to 30
1921-23 - 30-34-36
1924-42 - 41 to 47
1943-45 - 26-22-20
1946-48 - 32
1949-53 - 25 to 27
1954-74 - 29 to 35
so basically HOMers numbering in the 20s from 1882 to 1920, with few exceptions.
then a quick bump up the "30s," then in the 40s from 1924-41.
WW II bumps the count back down to the 20s again, and mostly it stays there until the mid-1950s, which kicks off our only extended period of having 30-something HOMers every year.
as we've mentioned before, we have tended to elect a very similar amount of AL/NLers over time (the 1960s are outdoing that pace). The difference in numbers to a good extent mirrors how deep the Negro Leagues talent was at any given time.
The important thing is accounting for the opportunities among players in the NgLs and for some aspect of the duration of that opportunity. If we don't do that, then the 1920s-1930s appear way overstuffed and you end up drawing the very conclusion you have just drawn about the 1950s. With four leagues playing instead of two the question could be Why have we elected so few from the 1940s? But by looking it through team seasons, you at least begin to see how the NgLs are influencing the number of selections and the degree of representation.
I chose team seasons to be a generic representation of the player pool. I'm not sure why the population pool is much different than team seasons, which is just counting up how many teams were in a league each season, which is a reasonable representation of opportunity. The player pool itself is filled with issues too since there's often the 0/1 guys or the guys with 3 IP, who aren't really the kind of players we're trying to count. We're really trying to figure out the opportunities for starting players. Besides figuring out how many guys are in the league at any given moment is a true pain in the butt for a guy (me) without serious databasing skills.
If I have time this weekend, I'll find a way to better represent the "when" of players' career, which may improve things a bit.
Pitchers
1921-24 - 7 to 9
1925-32 - 11 to 12
1933-34 - 8 to 9
1935-42 - 6 to 7
1943-46 - 3 to 4
1947-57 - 6 to 8
1958-61 - 9
1962-70 - 9 to 11
1971-73 - 8
Outfielders
1918-23 - 8 to 9
1924-28 - 12 to 13
1929-42 - 9 to 11
1943-46 - 4 to 6
1947-53 - 9 to 10
1954-57 - 12
1958-64 - 10 to 11
1965-73 - 8 to 10
I'll add up infielders if I have time tomorrow.
How about during the war? Does anyone have a list of HOM-ers who would have been active and regulars during the war. If we gave them war credit when we voted, then we should give them credit on these lists.
Greenberg, Feller, Mize, Dimaggio, Ruffing, Slaughter, Reese, Gordon, Doerr, Musial, Wynn, Dickey, Lyons, Spahn... gotta be some more. Of course, some of these guys were gone longer than others and at different times. Plus, its hard to deal with guys like Lyons and Spahn. With no war, I don't think Lyons plays at all in 1946... he likely came back just to see what he had left... and with no war, I don't know how early Spahn enters the rotation.
We certainly could use some more guys from 1946-49. That's the tricky integration period. Also, many guys who would have been rookies in the early 40s likely lost key developmental time due to the war.
172: TWilliams
155: Musial
100-109: Kiner, JDimaggio, Newhouser, Reese, Slaughter, Boudreau, Pesky, Henrich, Stephens
90-99: Doerr, Mize, DDimaggio, BElliott
80-89: Ennis, Brecheen, Feller, Appling, Sain, Stanky, JRobinson, Kell
70-79: Joost, Spahn, JGordon, Lemon, Vernon, Rizzuto, Holmes, Spencer, Hutchinson, Lopat, Valo, SGordon, WMarshall
(MLB only)
The adjusted is either additional WS for years spent in the service, or a discount for weak competition in 1943-44-45, or both (e.g. Musial, Doerr, Appling and others have some of each). First listed according to number of raw WS credited in James' book of that name.
These are all decade numbers, not full careers.
1. Ted Williams--290 raw WS > 428 adj WS
2. Stan Musial--263 > 291
3. Lou Boudreau--255 < 247
4. Hal Newhouser--224 < 215
5. Bob Elliott--219 < 212
6. Dixie Walker--219 < 211
7. Joe DiMaggio--213 > 309
8. Bobby Doerr--209 > 228
9. Luke Appling 207 > 251
10. Vern Stephens 203 < 195
Then, by adjusted WS.
1. Ted Williams 428
2. Joe DiMaggio 309
3. Stan Musial 291
4. Johnny Mize 271
5. Bob Feller 268
6. Enos Slaughter 261
7. Luke Appling 251
8. Lou Boudreau 247
9. Joe Gordon 237
10. Pee Wee Reese 234
11. Charlie Keller 232
12. Dom DiMaggio 231
13. Tommy Henrich 229
14. Bobby Doerr 228
15. Johnny Pesky 217
16. Hal Newhouser 215
17. Bob Elliott 212
18. Dixie Walker 211
19. Eddie Joost 201
20. Vern Stephens 195
Isn't this a lot better indicator of how these guys rank than the first list? Apply all the usual caveats, of course, especially--would Feller really have had 4 years like 1940-41-46-47? Would Keller have started to break down? In his case (unlike Feller's) his numbers are not optimal, because they include the influence of 1947, his first break-down year (10 WS). Pesky is another hard case--his '42-'46 suggest one ballplayer, as early as '47-'48 we're seeing another.
But overall the second list is more fair. In the 1930s, 18 players earned 200 WS and in the 1950s it was 15. In the '40s it was just 11, but if you adjust you get 19, much more in line with normal expectations. So when I rank these players, I use the second list. And the bottom line is that guys like Boudreau and Doerr and Stephens are over-rated, while Mize, Slaughter, Reese and Pesky, among others, are under-rated.
And just apropos of the VC ballot, and this now is one case where I'm talking career numbers: Cecil Travis. If you just take his surrounding years of 22 and 34 WS before and 10 after, that's an average of 22. I give him 22 WS each year he's away, even partially away, for an additional 87 WS and a career total of 256. He's nowhere near the decade list, of course. And all things considered, even with war credit I can't get him anywhere near Pesky much less Rizutto, whose career numbers are 274 (Pesky) and 297 (Rizzuto). And Travis' great year is 34 but then his top 3 are just 34-22-22 with or without war credit. Pesky's are 34-28-25 without war credit and 34-29-29 with (or if that violates the "no hypothetical peak" rule, then call it 34-28-25 with more 25s during the war and he's still at 262, of course, now well within the Travis range. Rizzuto is 35-26-25 either way.
But anyway, the '40s are so terribly distorted I don't see any fair way to judge these guys without some special ops.
Here's a quick list of missing seasons for HoM inductees (not including NeLers like Willard Brown)
3- Joe DiMaggio
3- Bob Feller
3- Hank Greenberg
3- Johnny Mize
3- Pee Wee Reese
3- Enos Slaughter
3- Arky Vaughan
3- Ted Williams
2- Luke Appling
2- Joe Gordon (maybe two and 1/4)
2- Red Ruffing
1- Bill Dickey (maybe, he missed two full seasons but he was only playing half-time before those seasons)
1- Bobby Doerr
1- Jimmie Foxx (maybe one and a half)
1- Stan Musial
Feller & Greenberg are at least 3.5.
Foxx retired. It was due to the war that he was called back out.
Thanks. I thought that was the case but I wasn't sure- hence the maybe.
among ngls, i think it's Brown, Jackie?, Doby, Irvin who end up servin'. I'm probably forgetting someone.
;-)
DECADE TM SEASONS HOMers % TM SEASONS +/------------------------------------------------------------
1941-1950 276 15 5% -9.0
1951-1960 160 16.5 10% +2.6
Eric, I'm not sure what is the point of the study.
With this data, I don't think you can persuade many people here that the 40's are radically underrepresented while the 1950's are slightly over quota. We are not electing strictly proportional to "team seasons" (or at least, I'm not, maybe others are). The "team seasons" are simply a reflection of the business model at any given time, not the player pool.
I'm not sure why the population pool is much different than team seasons
Are you trying to say that the NgL's dried up in the 1950's due to a shortage of baseball players? And because of that the 1950's should have 40% of the HOM representation that the 1940's should have? Because it appears to me that that's where your argument is going to lead, but maybe I'm wrong.
I think that a good argument can be made that the 1940's and 1950's COMBINED are underrepresented, that the overall contraction caused by the decline of the NgL's should NOT result in a corresponding decline in the number of HOMers. It's just that the contraction in the number of teams caused a rise in overall quality making it more difficult for individuals to stand out or dominate during the 1950's, so that the same player that put up HOM stats in the expansion 1930s would appear to be only HOVG in the contraction 1950s. But the basis of that argument is "population pool", not "team seasons".
Correction:
And because of that the 1950's should have 60% of the HOM representation that the 1940's should have?
1940 (42)
NL - Hartnett*, Waner, Ott, Hubbell, Vaughan, BiHerman, Hack, Medwick, Mize, Slaughter, Reese
AL - ASimmons*, Lyons, Grove*, Foxx, Ruffing, Gehringer, Cronin, Dickey, Averill*, Appling, Greenberg, DiMaggio, Feller, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser*
NeL - Mackey*, JWilson, CPBell**, Stearnes, Suttles, Wells**, Dihigo**, JGibson**, RBrown, Leonard, WBrown**, Campanella*, Irvin
1941 (41)
NL - Hartnett*, Waner, Ott, Hubbell, Vaughan, BiHerman, Hack, Medwick, Mize, Slaughter, Reese, Musial*
AL - Lyons, Grove*, Foxx, Ruffing, Gehringer, Cronin, Dickey, Appling, Greenberg, DiMaggio, Feller, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser
NeL - Mackey,*, JWilson, CPBell**, Suttles, Wells**, Dihigo**, JGibson**, Paige, RBrown, Leonard, WBrown, Campanella*, Irvin
1942 (37)
NL - Waner, Ott, Hubbell, Vaughan, Foxx*, BiHerman, Hack, Medwick, Mize, Slaughter, Reese, Musial
AL - Lyons, Foxx*, Ruffing, Gehringer*, Cronin*, Dickey, Appling, DiMaggio, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn
NeL (11) - JWilson, CPBell, Wells, Dihigo**, JGibson, Paige, RBrown, Leonard, WBrown, Campanella, Doby
1943 (26)
NL - Waner, Ott, Hubbell*, Vaughan, BiHerman, Hack, Medwick, Musial
AL - ASimmons*, Cronin*, Dickey, Appling, Gordon, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn
NeL - JWilson, CPBell, Wells**, Dihigo**, JGibson, Paige, RBrown, Leonard, WBrown, Doby
1944 (19)
NL - Waner*, Ott, Fox*, Hack, Medwick, Musial
AL - Cronin*, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn
NeL - CPBell, Wells**, Dihigo**, JGibson, Paige, RBrown, Leonard, Campanella
1945 (20)
NL - Ott, Foxx, Hack, Medwick
AL - Ruffing*, Appling*, Greenberg, Feller*, Boudreau, Newhouser
NeL - JWilson*, CPBell, Wells*, Dihigo**, JGibson, Paige, RBrown, Leonard, Campanella, JRobinson
1946 (32)
NL - Ott*, BiHerman, Hack, Medwick*, Mize, Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner
AL - Ruffing*, Dickey*, Appling, Greenberg, DiMaggio, Feller, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn*, Lemon*
NeL - CPBell, Wells*, Dihigo**, JGibson, Paige, RBrown**, Leonard, WBrown, Campanella, Irvin, Doby*
1947 (32)
NL - Vaughan*, Greenberg, BiHerman*, Hack*, Medwick*, Mize, Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider*
AL - Ruffing*, Appling, DiMaggio, Feller, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn, Lemon, Doby*, Berra*, WBrown*
NeL - Wells*, Paige, RBrown**, Leonard, WBrown*, Irvin, Doby*
1948 (32)
NL - Vaughan*, Medwick*, Mize, Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider*, Campanella, Ashburn, Roberts*
AL - Paige*, Appling, DiMaggio, Feller, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn, Lemon, Doby, Berra, Pierce*
NeL - Wells*, RBrown**, Leonard, WBrown, Irvin
1949 (26)
NL - Mize*, Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider, Campanella, Ashburn, Roberts, Irvin*
AL - Paige*, Appling, DiMaggio*, Feller, Mize*, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn, Lemon, Doby, Berra, Pierce
We don't get back to 32 HOMers - the 1946-48 total - til 1955.
This is WW2, not WW1 :)
So essentially it's not really a '40s problem, it's the decade after WWII.
1950 - 26
1951 - 27
1952 - 25
1953 - 27
1954 - 28
1955 - 32
1956 - 33
1957 - 30
1958 - 30
1959 - 31
1960 - 31
1961 - 32
1962 - 33
1963 - 36
1964 - 35
1965 - 33
1966 - 34
1967 - 34
1968 - 34
1969 - 34
1970 - 34
1971 - 32
1972 - 32
1973 - 30
1974 - 30
then you start running into more and more of the "no-brainers not yet eligible" wall
326 - Musial
264 - TWilliams
231 - Kiner
228 - JRobinson
219 - PWReese
206 - Berra
202 - Spahn
194 - Doby
191 - BLemon
182 - DSnider
181 - SGordon
180 - MVernon
180 - RRoberts
179 - Ennis
179 - Slaughter
178 - Rizzuto
172 - Schoendienst
169 - Kell
164 - Pafko
164 - Ashburn
160 - VStephens
159 - Pesky
159 - GHodges
159 - Yost
157 - DDimaggio
156 - Campanella
155 - JDimaggio
154 - BElliott
154 - ARosen
153 - Joost
152 - Furillo
150 - Dark
149 - Newhouser
149 - Fain
146 - Lopat
146 - Wynn
144 - BThomson
143 - Feller
143 - Sain
And consider that Newcombe suffered from both phenomena of the day--military service and held back in the MiLs due to quotas or whatever.
On sunnyday2's response: E.g. add in WWII credit and Rizzuto and Pesky and maybe D. DiMaggio really rise to the top of this list.
Unless I am totally misunderstanding the list, WWII credit would not change anyone's place on this list, as it is showing only the WS players earned 1946-54, after WWII. Now, Korean War credit would move Williams up, and would almost certainly bring Newcombe onto this list.
The Hom cases for Rizzuto, Pesky, and D. Dimaggio (and Joe D. too, for that matter) depend upon play outside the years covered in the table, as well as on those years.
Correct. Its just a 1946-54 list. That seems to be the location of the 'dip' in Howie's numbers. Extending earlier wouldn't be fair to guys who did and did not go to war. Voters will have their own mechanisms for extending credit through the war years for those that served.
I just have a handy way of creating TopWS per time period lists and figured I'd post something for the "dip" years and see if anything stood out. It did pick up Sid Gordon's nifty five year peak playing for the Giants while the Braves were winning and the Braves while the Giants were winning. But thats still only 20 WS/year over a nine-year gap... hardly an impressive prime for a corner outfielder.
Slaughter
Gordon
Doerr
Reese
(and Keller if he should be elected).
However, the cases of Slaughter and Gordon and Reese are more impacted by credit than Doerr (and Keller) since those guys missed more time.
Anyway, this can mean one of a fews things:
-nothing
-that we've identified the cases in which war credit is most appropriately used to make judgements about players
-that we've not used enough discretion/imagination in giving war credit so that only four guys have been helped by it.
The evidence isn't immediately clear in any direction, and perhaps the true result is some from all three.
It's possible that the way we're all going about giving war credit (if we give it) is itself causing some of the dislocation Sunny's talking about. It feels like the consensus says that averaging surrounding seasons is the best way to go, and that allowing peak-level credit is outre. And yet, logic suggests that some perhaps many of these players were gone for their peak seasons.
I do the surrounding seasons thing myself. It's easy, and it keeps things within the realm. But maybe there's better ways? For instance, maybe it's better to take Tango or Silver's aging studies and use them to either fill in the gaps or as part of an equation for determining missing seasons where their known career averages provide part of the weighting. (And yes, T. Petty fans, the weighting is the hardest part.)
After all what's the most likely or realistic thing we can do? To use surrounding seasons during peak years? Or to determine the most likely aging scenario from tens of thousands of individual seasons and then apply it to the player's known level of performance?
It certainly was not an ideal time to be a developing baseball player. Its easy to speculate on the backlog of minor-league talent in 1946 that teams had to sift through. Not as much "very young" talent (<23) after the war (46-48) as their was before (40-42). Compare Williams, Reiser, Feller, Boudreau, Pesky, Musial to Ennis, Branca, Ashburn.
Plus the integation issues that have been mentioned before made it difficult for young black stars to integrate. Sal Maglie is an interesting case as well. This was the Hank Sauer era as well.
Charlie Keller and Pete Reiser all had some unfortunate injury problems. Rosen's injury would have helped the less-needy later 50s. I'm not sure what can be said about Rosen's late start.
The Korean years by Ford, Mays & Williams might boost Howies the 51-53 numbers a bit.
BTW, for people who are worried about electing too many 3Bmen from the 1970s, isn't there a similar issue with 2B/SS from the 1940s? We've already got Doerr, Gordon, Boudreau and Reese, plus the end of Appling, Arky Vaughan, Billy Herman and Jud Wilson's careers and the start of Jackie Robinson's. And Larry Doby was playing in the infield at Newark. But we're talking about Rizzuto and Stephens and Cecil Travis if he'd been healthy, and Bus Clarkson (though he also played 3rd), and Marvin Williams. It probably looks worse because they're bunched up in the AL for no particular reason.
AL, 1946-55
1946 (13) - Ruffing*, Dickey*, Appling, Greenberg, DiMaggio, Feller, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn*, Lemon*
1947 (12.8) - Ruffing*, Appling, DiMaggio, Feller, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn, Lemon, Doby*, Berra*, WBrown*
1948 (14) - Paige*, Appling, DiMaggio, Feller, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn, Lemon, Doby, Berra, Pierce*
1949 (14.1) - Paige*, Appling, DiMaggio*, Feller, Mize*, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn, Lemon, Doby, Berra, Pierce
1950 (15) - Appling*, DiMaggio, Feller, Mize, Gordon, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser, Wynn, Lemon, Doby, Berra, Pierce, Ford*
1951 (15) - Paige*, DiMaggio, Feller, Mize, TWilliams, Boudreau, Doerr, Newhouser*, Wynn, Lemon, Doby, Berra, Pierce, Mantle, Minoso
1952 (11) - Paige, Feller, Mize*, Newhouser, Wynn, Lemon, Doby, Berra, Pierce, Mantle, Minoso
1953 (13) - Paige, Feller, Mize*, TWilliams*, Wynn, Lemon, Doby, Berra, Pierce, Ford, Mantle, Minoso, Kaline*
1954 (13) - Feller*, TWilliams, Newhouser*, Wynn, Lemon, Doby, Berra, Pierce, Ford, Mantle, Minoso, Kaline, Slaughter*
1955 (15) - Feller*, TWilliams, Wynn, Lemon, Kiner, Doby, Berra, Pierce, Ford, Mantle, Minoso, Slaughter, Bunning*, Killebrew*
1946 (9) - Ott*, BiHerman, Hack, Medwick*, Mize, Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner
1947 (13) - Vaughan*, Greenberg, BiHerman*, Hack*, Medwick*, Mize, Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider*
1948 (13) - Vaughan*, Medwick*, Mize, Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider*, Campanella, Ashburn, Roberts*
1949 (11.9) - Mize*, Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider, Campanella, Ashburn, Roberts, Irvin*
1950 (11) - Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider, Campanella, Ashburn, Roberts, Irvin
1951 (12) - Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider, Campanella, Ashburn, Roberts, Irvin, Mays
1952 (14) - Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider, Campanella, Ashburn, Roberts, Irvin*, Mays*, Mathews, Wilhelm
1953 (14) - Slaughter, Reese, Musial, Kiner, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider, Campanella, Ashburn, Roberts, Irvin, Mathews, Wilhelm, Banks*
1954 (15) - Reese, Musial, Kiner, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider, Campanella, Ashburn, Roberts, Irvin, Mays, Mathews, Wilhelm, Banks, Aaron
1955 (17) - Reese, Musial, Spahn, JRobinson, Snider, Campanella, Ashburn, Roberts, Irvin*, Mays, Mathews, Wilhelm, Banks, Aaron, Koufax*, Clemente, Boyer
1946 (10) - CPBell, Wells*, Dihigo**, JGibson, Paige, RBrown**, Leonard, WBrown, Campanella, Irvin, Doby*
1947 (6.1) - Wells*, Paige, RBrown**, Leonard, WBrown*, Irvin, Doby*
1948 (5) - Wells*, RBrown**, Leonard, WBrown, Irvin
** for foreign play
Nothing for these guys after 1948, though.
Was 2B and SS combined to make one super position during that era? ;-)
I don't know, I guess I was struck by the fact that just about everybody who played either position for the Yankees or Red Sox position is an inductee or candidate. But neither one is really overrepresented, it's the strength of both that's notable, especially compared to the 50s-70s.
And looking over my own positional lists, there's also Gehringer lingering into the 40s, and Willie Wells lasting through the war. Plus Monte Irvin was also playing infield positions at this point.
That said, there are other eras that are just about as populated - the early 1920s are pretty close, and the 1890s are probably proportanitely equal. The difference is that we've just about inducted all the candidates from those eras, while there are still middle infield candidates being promoted from this era. Hey, I've got Clarkson on my ballot, Rizzuto just off it, and Stephens in the low 20s. But if you're worried about positional balance - which is by no means required - I suspect Elliott, Keller and Walters (who are also somewhere between 15-35 for me) are better candidates. (Or Leonard, Bridges or Trucks if they're your pitcher choice, or Easter or Estalella, I guess.)
Catchers aren't really over or underrepresented, I just think Trouppe is significantly ahead of the rest of the candidates that I'm not really considering that in his case. (Although, looking at what I'm doing here, for all my yapping I may not be considering it at all.)
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