I'll post my ballot sometime this week. Still haven't figured out what to do with Evans.

1995 (elect 3)

Evans is a tough case. I somewhat grudgingly have him in line for future PHoM status, but just off-ballot right now. Mike Schmidt, Phil Rizzuto and Gavvy Cravath go PHoM. Willie Keeler, Evans and Ezra Sutton (after all these years) next in line.

Trouppe moves from #50 to #22, Jim Wynn from #52 to 28. I re-evaluated catchers (in light of Trouppe's status) and 3B (with Evans coming on board; Ezra Sutton a big beneficiary of that) and SS (just in light of the glut). Jim Wynn similar to a bunch of other hitters but that includes PHoM cluster of Orlando Cepeda, Frank Howard and Gavy Cravath.

1. Mike Schmidt (new, PHoM 1995)—I remember when some people objected to the term “no brainer” (“NB”), but I can’t think of any other way to describe this guy.

2. Edd Roush (2-4-6, PHoM 1976)—nice peak of 38*-33-30 (*short WWI season adjusted to 154), very well-rounded skills.

3. Charlie Keller (4-6-9, PHoM 1985)—the ultimate all-peak candidate.

4. Rollie Fingers (6-7-3, PHoM 1991)—there’s no uber-stat that says Fingers is ballot-worthy, but I go back to Chris Cobb’s old test—who do you want in the HoM? And on that simple basis, subjective as it is, I want the #3 reliever of all-time (as of 1995) in mine.

5. Addie Joss (8-9-6, PHoM 1967)—not a workhorse, to be sure, but damn effective and not a “small sample” of IP.

6. Pete Browning (15-10-7, PHoM 1961)—do you believe in numbers?

7. Phil Rizzuto (10-22-17, PHoM 1995)—306 career WS with war credit. His tenth best season is 21 WS, compared to Nellie Fox at 19, Darrell Evans at 18, e.g.

8. Orlando Cepeda (9-16-13, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard, Cravath and (now) Tony Perez, but the best of the group.

9. Reggie Smith (13-17-10, PHoM 1988)—cannot quite see how he’s not better than Jim Wynn.

10. Charley Jones (17-30-16, PHoM 1921)—even with hefty AA discounts.

11. Larry Doyle (5-15-5, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Ed Roush.

12. Ed Williamson (14-13-11, PHoM 1924)—more peak and more glove than Darrell Evans.

13. Nellie Fox (12-8-4, PHoM 1971)—I’ve decided I like Rizzuto a bit better, though they are two very very comparable players. I think Phil’s peak was a bit more valuable.

14. Frank Howard (23-27-19, PHoM 1987)—PHoM opening forced me to re-evaluate a lot of guys, and his numbers are just too good.

15. Elston Howard (7-12-15, PHoM 1994)—never really thought of him as a HoM or HoF or PHoM type of player, but I now see him as one of those few players whose opportunities were least commensurate to his ability.

Drops Out and/or Very Very Close to Ballot

16. Dick Redding (11-26-25, PHoM 1971)—next best arm, great peak.

17. Gavvy Cravath (21-21-14, PHoM 1995)

(17a. Willie Keeler [24a-30a-22a])

18. Darrell Evans (new)--#5 in my PHoM sweepstakes, not quite the peak I usually like to see, plenty of career, very high borderline.

(18a. Ezra Sutton [39a-32a-35a]—likely PHoM after all these years. Thank Darrell Evans for having reviewed his case.)

Close—i.e. right around in/out line, as I think we will elect another dozen backloggers before we’re done

19. Tony Perez (19-18-new)
20. Don Newcombe (22-20-22)

21. Tommy Leach (16-29-48)
22. Quincy Trouppe (50-54-52)
23. Norm Cash (43-31-21)
24. Al Rosen (18-37-40)
25. Hack Wilson (28-39-34)
26. Burleigh Grimes (38-70-67)
27. Roger Bresnahan (31-36-38)
28. Jim Wynn (52-52-37)
29. Sal Bando (29-49-60)
30. Johnny Pesky (80-76-83)

Bob Johnson might be a bit under-rated at #52, Beckley is about right at #59.

PHoM: Mike Schmidt, Darrell Evans, Ted Simmons

1. Mike Schmidt (new)

Slam dunk, easy pick, #1

2. Darrell Evans (new)

Another easy one as far as I am concerned. Closer to #1 than to #3.

3. Tony Perez (2,6,3)

4. Edd Roush (5,10,10)

5. Jake Beckley (4,5,6)

6. Rusty Staub (3,9,5)

7. George Van Haltren (8,8,7)

While I am glad that a backlogger goes in this week, poor George is still far from enshrinement. :(

8. Jimmy Wynn (12,11,9)

9. Tommy Leach (9,12,12)

10. Lou Brock (11,15,13)

His lack of support continue to surprise me.

11. Nellie Fox (6,7,8)

12. Quincy Trouppe (13,14,11)

His year?

13. Mickey Welch (15,13,14)

14. Graig Nettles (7,x,x)

15. Jose Cruz (x,x,x)

Slips in.

16-20. Duffy, Cash, Cepeda, R.Smith, Singleton
21-25. Bell, Browning, Johnson, Bonds, Cedeno
26-30. Redding, Ryan, Willis, McCormick, Streeter

1995 Ballot. How many third basemen or part-third-basemen can I put on one ballot, anyway? Schmidt, of course. If you subscribe to the theory that 2B then = 3B now, then Doyle is in the mix. Trouppe played some 3B when he wasn't catching, right? Evans for most of his career. Walters was a bad-hitting 3B before he became a good-hitting pitcher. The majority of Bando, the majority of Elliott, some early-career years for Perez. No wonder I can't find room for Buddy Bell.

1. Michael Jack Schmidt (new)
2. Larry Doyle (4, 2, 4, 5, 4) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. Some other voters' comments have portrayed him as not mediocre, but historically bad, a "statue." If so, why did the defense-obsessed writers vote him a Chalmers award? I tend to doubt that John McGraw would have put up with that bad a defensive liability.
3. Quincy Trouppe (5, 3, 5, 6, 5) More so even than most Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork. But I've been convinced for a while.
4. Darrell Evans (new) Far from a slam-dunk candidate. To be honest, I'm skeptical of the defensive value. But I've got him a little better than the 3rd basemen I have been voting for (Bando, Elliott) and with a crammed-together backlog, that puts him all the way up here.
5. Jimmy Wynn (7, 4, 6, 7, 6) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
6. George Van Haltren (8, 5, 7, 8, 7) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
7. Tommy Bridges (10, 6, 8, 9, 8) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
8. Bucky Walters (11, 7, 9, 10, 9) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
9. Orlando Cepeda (6, 8, 10, 11, 10) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
10. Norm Cash (9, 9, 11, 12, 11) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
11. Frank Howard (12, 10, 12, 13, 12) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
12. Lou Brock (14, 13, 13, 14, 13) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
13. Sal Bando (15, 14, 14, 15, 14) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
14. Bob Elliott (16, 15, 15, 16, 15) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
15. Tony Perez (--, 16, 17, 16) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
16. Rusty Staub (-, 12, 17, 18, 17) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time. Not Frank Howard's peak, but some peak anyway.
17. Luis Tiant (17, 16, 18, 19, 18) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value.
18. Reggie Smith (18, 17, 19, 20, 19) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
19. Jake Beckley (19, 18, 20, 21, 20) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
20. Tommy John (new) RA+ Pythpat record of 281-244 with no big years. Compare to Tiant: the difference of 57-80 is pretty much a wash, and Tiant had some big years.
21. Darrell Porter (---, 22, 21) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
22. Graig Nettles (----, 22) Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott.
23. Ken Singleton (20, 19, 21, 23, 23) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter. So he goes behind Smith. And as for that peak: I like Hondo's better.
24. Ron Cey (---, 24, 25) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
25. Rollie Fingers (-, 20, 22, 25, 25) I'll do a more extensive reevaluation when we get to Gossage.
26. Gene Tenace (22, 21, 23, 26, 26) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)
27. Dick Redding (22, 22, 24, 27, 27)
28. Luis Aparicio (23, 23, 25, 28, 28) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
29. Bobby Bonds (24, 24, 26, 29, 29) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
30. Hugh Duffy (25, 25, 27, 30, 30) I did vote for him for nearly 50 years, but we've just had too many good candidates since then.

Top tenners not voting for: Keller (like Chance or McGraw) just has too few games played. Fox and Roush are in the 30's, just off the ones listed. I supported Stovey over Browning long ago because he seemed much better at scoring runs; Browning was nothing special there.

Buddy Bell: Comparable to Nettles, but I have him a little less - and on this list, a little goes a long ways.

Jim Rice: not close to my ballot. I'd rather have Sam Rice.

Jerry Reuss: Hometown boy makes good by joining the Cardinals (in a town with a large enough German-ancestry fraction that they knew how to pronounce his name). Rookie at age 21, retires at age 41. RA+ Pythpat 204-203. Tell me again why the Cardinals traded him away?

Bob Forsch: Raw RA+ Pythpat 153-157; that would improve by a few games if I were to correct for his hitting. The Cardinals' best pitcher for a number of years in the late 70's and very early 80's; was still around for Whitey's pennant runs but was no longer the ace. Somehow pitched two no-hitters.

Leon Durham: Once the hottest prospect in the Cardinals' farm system (as was also Heity Cruz). Traded to the Cubs (along with the overrated Ken Reitz) for Bruce Sutter. Career a mild disappointment, but gets a bum rap for 1987.

I have included a top-34 this week, since that takes me down to Wynn. Places 28-34 are practically interchangeable.
I seem to be placing comparable newbies over comparable glutsters, but I am doing my best to treat them equally.

Trouppe and Keller are outside of my top-34. Trouppe is somewhere around 50 and Keller is not in my consideration set (his career is too short for a career-first voter like me, even with war credit, and I don't create a peak with war credit).

Newbies and last year's top 10 in bold.

1. Mike Schmidt – pretty low batting average for a slam dunk HoMer.

2. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

3. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. His peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving, but still is better than the backlog. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

4. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

5. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

6. Tony Perez – this might be a bit high, but I am comfortable with it. 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

7. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me. It'll be nice to have him elected soon and off the ballot after all these years.

8. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

9. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

10. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

11. Luis Tiant, p – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

12. Rollie Fingers – he is a real borderline closer for me. I definitely like Tiant better and I am pretty sure I prefer him to Cepeda – I’m not too sure about the Fingers-John-Evans-Nettles order). If he is still on the ballot in 2006, he might move down.

13. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat. No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.

14. Darrell Evans – I think he is better than Nettles and not far from Perez. I am treating him as an average fielder, as I don’t trust the defensive metrics when they so clearly contradict the public opinion. I really don’t see him as far superior to Nettles as many seem to.

15. Graig Nettles – definitely better than Traynor, about equal to Boyer. Obviously, the defence is a big help.

16. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. It feels like a cop out putting four newbies on the bubble here, but I really like my first 9 candidates and really have no positive HoMie feeling for anyone below Rice. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

17. Orlando Cepeda, 1b – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Roush, Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot.

18. George Van Haltren, of – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

19. Jimmy Ryan, of – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 12 spots back.

20. Sam Rice, of -- 2987 hits speaks to me.

21. Pie Traynor, 3b -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.

22. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

23. Jim Kaat
24. Aparicio -- those 1000 extra outs separate him from Fox, as does the poorer defence.
25. Dizzy Dean
26. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.
27. Schang – I’d like more catchers in the HoM, but this isn’t a cocktail party.
28. Gavvy Cravath – beginning of the new outfield glut.
29. Buzz Arlett – can 350+ WS be a correct translation? Like GVH, he pitched some too.
30. Edd Roush – little difference between Buzz, Roush, Duffy, Gavvy, Pinson, Bonds and Wynn, except the era and the contexts.
31. Duffy
32. Pinson
33. Bonds
34. Wynn

Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. I have just realized that my system did not fully appreciate the value accrued by being average (a lot is made up that way). I like Jim Rice, but only just not enough for the ballot this time around. Al Oliver reclaims the 15th spot. Obviously Mike Schmidt is #1 (with a bullet!) I clear out my own personal backlog a bit this year, following a fresh examination of Juan Marichal (if I like Tommy Bridges, how could Marichal be lower?) and Bill Freehan joining my own personal hallowed ranks. Next in line: Bob Johnson, Biz Mackey, Bobby Veach, Willie Stargell, Orlando Cepeda, Ken Boyer, in/out line.
No other real rejiggerings of my rankings this week. I guess that's the price of needing the time to also ponder the merits of the Veteran's committee ballot members.
Other newbies: Darrell Evans - Severe uncertainties about his glovework keep him just off-ballot at 21.
Jim Rice - Downgrading his peak numbers for various reasons and Rice starts out at 17. What?!?! Jim Rice is better than Darrell Evans?!?!? Scandal! I am convinced that Rice was a betterhitter. I am not convinced that Evans was an altogether much more valuable fielder over the course of his career. For a few years, obviously.
Tommy John - He's either Sutton, or slightly more steady. Either way, I have him at roughly the same slot I had Sutton last year. (37)
Buddy Bell - Graig Nettles, a bit more bat, a very little less glove. (60)
Consensus top 10 off my ballot - Keller/Browning - serious durability concerns. (52/51)
Wynn (24) - I am comfortable pushing him up more than 20 places this week seeing as how he is not much different from the other guys in the early mid twenties and I respect the electorate's views on him.
Fingers (35) - a great releiver. I'd rather have Sutter or Sparky though.

1)Mike Schmidt - So far above all the other 3B available and in fact, anyone available, I was floored. (PHOM)
2)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
3)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
4)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. Even when he was missing time, he wasn't missing all that much. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
5)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
6)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
7)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week. (PHOM)
((7a)Juan Marichal - A little rethink on his career accomplishments moves him right up)) (PHOM)
8)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations. (PHOM)
9)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit. That said, even with the partial credit I am giving him (2 full years), I now see that he was rather durable in season, and he seems to have been a solid defender. (PHOM)
10)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
11)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
((11a)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.)) (PHOM)
12)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable.
((12a)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))
13)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
((13a)Willie Stargell - His particular career has proven to be a real challenge to my system. I think this will be among his lower rankings. But if I didn't jump all over Billy Williams, then Willie can only be here.))
14)Orlando Cepeda
((14a)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.))
15)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarilites between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two. Career length is nice as well.

16)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
17)Jim Rice - Am I his best friend? This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found.
18)Wally Berger - super-underrated
19)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
20)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy.
21)Darrell Evans - Thanks to Chris Cobb for correcting a flaw in my judgment that was worth 8 spots on this ballot. Being a third basemen for 2 more years would have been worth another 8 spots or so.
22)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.
23)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
24)Jimmy Wynn - I realized that while Wynn does not stick out for me among the CF candidates, there is no real reason for me to place him at the bottom of my second tier. Conceding that he is about as close to Berger as he is to J. Ryan in my ranking, I decided to give the electorate some credit with their placement of Wynn, and bump him to a spot a little closer to Berger's, and to the ballot.
25)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily corrent to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
26)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
27)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((27a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((27b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers diferently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevent over the years.))
28)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled releiver system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
29)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
30)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
31)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves down this week as I make up for the error that counted his whole career as a CF.
32)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((32a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
((32b)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.))
33)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((33a)Cupid Childs))
34)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
35)Rollie Fingers - When he was on, forget about it. Unfortunately, I don't feel that he was on consistently enough to merit anything, much higher than this. It seems that his abundance of 15th place votes last year was a lot of voters hedging their bets.
36)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
37)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
38)Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((38a)Don Sutton - Had a peak, but not an exceptional one. His durability pushes him above Tiant.))
39)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
40)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
41)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
42)Phil Rizzuto
43)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
44)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
45)Jimmy Ryan
46)Cy Williams
47)Amos Otis - Forgot to include him last year. Very comparable to the next guy. Bat and glove trading off.
48)Dolf Camilli
49)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
50)Tony Perez - This is THE Jake Beckley comp, in terms of overall level and value. Still, not my type.
51)Pete Browning - Moves down due to serious durability concerns.
52)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit. Too much 'what-if' to rank higher. I do not give minor league MLE credit for being blocked. Integration, yes. Non-MLB affiliation, yes. Having someone else the franchise liked better at the time above you, no. Finally, he had serious durability issues. Are high rate stats easier to maintain when not playing a full schedule. It would seem so. A very talented bat, nontheless.
53)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
54)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
55)George Kell
56)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
57)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
58)Graig Nettles - Among 3B, I figure he sits nicely here between Elliott and Bando. The better question to ask is if I am underrating 3B in general. I'll have to look into it a bit more later. Nettles is the best defensive 3B on my ballot. I think he was better than Boyer as well.
59)Sal Bando
60)Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B.
61)Pie Traynor
62)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
63)Johnny Evers
64)Elston Howard
65)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
66)Bill Mazeroski
67)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
68)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
69)Vic Willis - A reaximantion of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
70)Thurmon Munson - see below.
71)Roger Bresnahan - Not like the two above or below, he is among those negatively affected by my new adjustments.
72)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
73)Johnny Pesky
74)Hippo Vaughn
75)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
76)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
77)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
78)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
79)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
80)Rocky Colavito
81)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
82)Denny Lyons
83)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
84)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
85)Rabbit Maranville

(1) Schmidt (new)--Top 20 All-Time.

(2) Keller (2nd)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). Played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up. With appropriate credits has an 8 year-run at the level that guys like Kiner and Berger, only reached for 4 or 5.

(3) Trouppe (9th)--Big jump reveals mostly declinig admiration for the guys in the middle, but also a sense that Simmons was roughly comparable. Welcome to the HoM.

(4) Roush (4th)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except the new guys and the third basemen. A star in his own time--a decent fielding CF always near the league lead in OPS.

(5) Bridges (7th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. I have him with 8 truly excellent seasons--no one outside the HoM has more.

(6) Oms (13th)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up. Moves way up as others slide down the ballot. His case has no holes.

(7) Cash (8th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot. Dan's study costs him a few points b/c/ his big years based on the ease of dominance in the 1960s AL, but others drop too.

(8) Wynn (10th)--Seven or eight top half of the HoM-type seasons sprinkled among a bunch of clunkers. This might be his year.

(9) Reggie Smith (unranked/16th)--Very similar on all dimensions to Cash and Wynn.

(10) Bob Johnson (6th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no major knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position. Since his era and position are already well-represented and he doesn't have a great peak, he losses the most when Dan's numbers take him down a peg.

(11) Leach (11th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. A lot like Evans, only with contemporary reports that match his stellar defensive numbers.

(12) Elliot (12th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer.

(13) Cravath (14th)--I've got no problem giving minor league credit and that brings him on ballot. Looking at the total package he offered, however, my personal jury is still out. A great hitter, but so were Jones, Browning, Fournier, Tiernan, Frank Howard, etc. He feels like one of those. Career length comparison to those others gets him on the ballot, but it is tenuous.

(14) Jack Beckley (15th)--Like Rusty Staub or Tony Perez, only with much less competition at his position. A truly borderline HoMer, but a deserving one.

(15) Darrell Evans (new)--Ideally he'd join the backlog and get a few more weeks of discussion, but his numbers put him somewhere between 10th and 15th and my lingering doubt on the fielding stats is only strong enough to push him back here.

Urban Shocker, Rollie Fingers, France Chance, and Tony Perez are the next four. I think all four are worthy HoMers.

Nellie Fox is an ok candidate; I just prefer my middle infielders hit a bit more. I have him 44th.

Fingers is--as noted above--right in the mix.

When you adjust Browning for league quality, you get a guy with a mid 140's OPS+ and roughly 9-plus years of playing time with limited defensive value. I have him somewhere around 52nd.

John is a serious candidate but doesn't get me excited. I've got him a little below Grimes--somewhere around 35th.

Bell isn't a bad candidate, but slots in behind Schmidt, Evans, Perez, Cey, Nettles, and maybe Bando. That a lot of modern 3B. Right now he's number 42.

I don't see Jim Rice as belonging in the top 75. It would take way too much work to figure out if he is number 80 or number 200.

1995 ballot

1) Mike Schmidt - best 3B ever, I have his career equivalent to Frank Robinson on my all-time list. My post-integration list is Williams, Mays, Aaron, Musial, Mantle, Frank Robinson, Schmidt. He's the first one who isn't an outfielder, which makes him the best infielder since WWII (Morgan is close). I'm going to go out on a limb and say best player of his generation also.
2) Luis Tiant - best pitcher available, clearly qualified. Holds his own vs Pierce, Bunning, Drysdale, Lyons and Marichal.
3) Bob Johnson - All-star level performance for 12-14 years depending on your MLE credit
4) Norm Cash - very good hitter and a very good fielder
5) Tommy Bridges - best WWII pitcher available
6) Quincy Trouppe - things are looking up for him
7) Tony Perez - good glove helps him out
8) Jake Beckley - long time very-goodness is special
9) Reggie Smith - I agree, better than Wynn
10) Darrell Evans - I'll place him here initially. I don't believe the Atlanta numbers for his glove but I believe he was above average. Would be 4th on this ballot without the discount. He could definitely hit.
11) Gavy Cravath - for his era he had a tremendous bat
12) Virgil Trucks - give him some leverage credit as a reliever in his late career and some war credit and he looks really good
13) Rusty Staub - drops down as I give a bigger DH demerit
14) Bus Clarkson - lots of WWII era on my ballot
15) Jim Wynn - postseason heroics could have changed history's perspective significantly

16-20) Edd Roush, Dutch Leonard, Orlando Cepeda, Bob Elliott, Ron Cey
21-25) Tommy John, Charlie Keller, Jack Quinn, Dick Redding, Vic Willis
26-30) Dizzy Trout, Johnny Evers, Luke Easter, Urban Shocker, Dave Bancroft

54) Rollie Fingers
56) Pete Browning
58) Buddy Bell (seems a little high, he's above McGraw)
108) Nellie Fox
116) Jim Rice

1995 ballot
Schmidt , Rice, and Richie Allen (after further scrutiny doesn't seem to be as big a poison as I thought) make my PHOM this year


1. Mike Schmidt the best 3rd baseman ever only if you drop Baker, Brett, and Boggs from the discussion (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
3. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
4. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
5. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
8. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
9. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
10. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
12. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
13. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
14. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1984)
15. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
16. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (makes my personal HoM this year)
17. Rollie Fingers best HoF speech ever (made my personal HoM in 1991)
18. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
20. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
21. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
22. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
23. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
24. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
25. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
26. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year (made my personal HoM in 1984)
29. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
35. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
36. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
37. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
38. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
39. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
40. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
41. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
42. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
43. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
44. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
45. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, and Trouppe barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Jimmy Wynn don’t buy the Houston logic
Charley Jones no black list points
Charle Keller I’m not giving him WWII or minor league credit of MVP seasons like others.
Darrell Evans 248 avg

I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Mike Schmidt
2. Charley Jones
3. Jake Beckley

There is a group of sluggers in the backlog who have roughly the same resume: about 300 career WS (with credits and adjustments); a career OPS+ 150 or thereabouts, with a high somewhere in the 170s; eight or nine prime years (with various war/minor league credits); not a lot of defensive value. This group includes Gavvy Cravath, Charlie Keller, Frank Howard, Pete Browning (with AA adjustments), Mike Tiernan; Sam Thompson, already in the HoM, also fits in this group. All these guys have an argument for induction, but I think Jones is a cut above. He also had a high peak, but a longer prime (with blacklisted credit) and better defense than the others with the possible exception of Keller. Although I don’t give credit for any seasons before 1876, I do suspect that his late arrival in organized baseball was due to geographical factors.

Over the past thirty years Beckley has finished between seventh and sixteenth in the balloting, 25 times between eighth and thirteenth (12th place is his median finish). He keeps hanging around the end of the ballot, but never moves much up or down. With fourteen elections left, it will be very interesting to see if he makes it. You would think so, but…

4. Jimmy Wynn
5. Darrell Evans

Two of the 1970s sabermetric love children, not that either are universally adored by this group. Wynn has six seasons with an OPS+ of 140, five of those playing CF. Evans did not have a huge peak, but he had a long prime at 3B, followed by three good seasons at 1B. His defence would have had to been pretty mediocre for him not to make it high on my ballot, and I’m not convinced the uberstats are that far off.

6. Vic Willis
7. Bucky Walters

Willis had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154). That’s comparable to Faber (4086/119) and Lyons (4161/118), and a whole lot better than Ruffing (4344/109).

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defences were either in the service or growing old.

8. Nellie Fox
9. Bob Elliott

Boyer’s election gives us another fifties infielder, bringing us to six. (Boyer, Jackie, Pee Wee, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew and Robinson, but Killer wasn’t established as a full-time player until ’59, and Brooksie until 1960). That’s still too few for a decade of high quality, integrated play. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF. Rose arrived on the scene in 1963, so that’s an eleven year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

It’s hard for me to see the difference between Bob Elliott (287 WS, 124 OPS+, 92.7 WARP1) and Ken Boyer (279 WS, 116 OPS+, 95.0 WARP1; not that I really care about WARP). We’ve only elected seven 3B who debuted before 1950, which seems a little paltry for eighty years of professional baseball.

10. Roger Bresnahan
11. Gavvy Cravath
12. Tommy Leach

We have a twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher. Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke.

Tommy Leach, an old favourite of mine, makes it back onto the ballot after a fifteen-year-or-so absence. 324 career WS, great defence at two key positions, and he could hit a little.

13. Ken Singleton
14. Larry Doyle
15. Eddie Cicotte

I’m throwing Singleton some love. If I’m going to vote for a 300 WS OF, I like voting for the guy with nine top ten OBP finishes. Looking ahead, it doesn’t seem like there are many 1970s outfielders heading for induction. Stargell, Yaz, and Reggie are in, Winfield is coming. Then there’s a bunch of guys—Parker, Rice, Lynn, Dewey, Bonds Sr.—clumped together. I think I like Singleton better than the rest, although I haven’t given Cobra or Dewey a complete look yet.

Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+. Cicotte had some big years before he threw it all away.

16-20: Frank Howard, Wally Schang, Charlie Keller, Dave Concepcion, Tony Perez.

Not in my top fifteen:

Charlie Keller See Jones comment. I don’t give minor-league credit to twenty-one year olds, although he does receive full war credit. That puts him in a glut of outfielders with similar arguments. Not far off my ballot now (currently at #18), and may make it on before he’s elected.

Pete Browning Brent/Daryn’s AA projections show he wasn’t a historic hitter, and he also had some playing time issues. Basically confirms what I’ve believed for a while: excellent hitter, mediocre defence, injury problems, same resume’ as a number of other OFers.

Edd Roush Like Browning, in some respects: weaker league, had some playing time issues, although he was a whole lot better with the glove..

Rollie Fingers I’m an ERA+/Win Shares guy, and Fingers does not look good using either system. Still, Sunny’s argument, that the third best reliever before 1988 should be in, is starting to make sense to me.

Quincey Trouppe One of the really interesting finds of this project…heck, why *aren’t* I voting for him? You know, with all due respect to Dr. C—who has been an invaluable contributor—at the end of the day, I just don’t fully trust the Mexican league MLE’s, and the war makes things even messier.

1995 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Mike Schmidt. 26.3 bWS/700PA, 9 MVP, 14 AS. Best 3B ever.

2. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined.

3. Pete Browning. 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

4. Darrell Evans. 19.2 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 11 AS. A bit better than Bando to me.

5. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. Soon to get eclipsed by a boatload of HOM 3B.

6. Roger Bresnahan. 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

7. Hugh Duffy. 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

8. George Van Haltren. 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

9. Tommy Leach. 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

10. Bill Monroe. The ultimate overlooked candidate.

11. Luis Tiant. 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

12. Vic Willis. 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

13. Lou Brock. - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career looks pretty good to me.

14. Charlie Keller. 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit.

15. Jimmy Wynn. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone.

16. Ben Taylor. I think Ben was a bit better than Jake.

17. Jake Beckley. 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

18. Larry Doyle. 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

19. Quincy Trouppe. May be elected before I put him on my ballot.

20. Nellie Fox. 13.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. I like Doyle and Monroe better. Fox wouldn’t be a horrible selection.

OTHER NEAR-MISSES/NEWBIES/LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

C. Wally Schang. 19.8 bWS/700 PA, 0 MVP, 11 AS.

C. Gene Tenace. 24.1 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS.

1B. Orlando Cepeda. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

1B. Tony Perez. 19.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 8 AS.

2B. George Scales. I think we could have missed him.

3B. Pie Traynor. 16.2 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS.

3B Buddy Bell. 15.0 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 8 AS. Just a little worse than Nettles.

SS. Herman Long. 13.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Vern Stephens. 18.5 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS.

LF. George J. Burns. 20.5 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS.

LF. Bob Johnson. 21.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 12 AS.

LF. Jim Rice. 18.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 8 AS. I think Singleton was better.

CF. Roy Thomas. 23.0 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS.

CF. Edd Roush – 21.9 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. I’m not giving holdout credit.

RF. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS.

RF. Ken Singleton. 22.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS.

SP. Urban Shocker. 24.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 7 AS.

SP. Wilbur Cooper. 22.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Eddie Rommel. 24.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Bucky Walters. 22.6 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS.

SP. Dizzy Dean. 27.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 6 AS.

SP. Mel Harder. 20.5 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 5 AS.

SP. Tommy John 18.4 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 6 AS. Not really much meat to the career.

RP. John Hiller. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 5 AS.

RP. Sparky Lyle. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 4 AS.

RP. Rollie Fingers – 33.0 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 4 AS. Why is he doing so much better than in the voting than Hiller and Lyle?

RP. Bruce Sutter. 48.2 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 4 AS. When he was good, he was very, very good, when he was bad, he was awful. The pWS numbers are obviously inflated, but are better than all of his contemporaries, including Quisenberry (45.0) and Gossage (36.9). Of course, Gossage had a decline phase.

Schmidt’s easy. If Darrell Evans had been a 3B full-time he’d be in the 10-15 range, but he wasn’t, so low in consideration set. Bell was a full-time 3B, so close to Evans but not to the ballot. Rice somewhat better than an adjusted Darrell Evans, so modestly off the ballot. Sundberg short career and nowhere near good enough. John clearly better than Kaat and for longer; tiny bit less than Sutton, but very close.

1. (N/A) Mike Schmidt. TB+BB/PA .589, TB+BB/Outs .911. Close between him and Eddie Mathews, but Mathews isn’t on the ballot.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-2-2-1) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 80 “years” ago.

3. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

6. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

7. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7-7-9-8) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

8. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9-8-6-6-8-7) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF. Down, but just above Browning

10. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7-5-5-7-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA. Also discount for not playing full seasons; the normalized hits should thus be about 1900, so drop him to just above Hondo.

11. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

12. Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat.

13. (N/A-15-N/A-13-13-15-14-12-14-15-14) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

14. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation.

15. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765. Back on ballot again.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-15-N/A) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long. Will be on soon.

17. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

18. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far – back up towards ballot in Pierce’s slot.

19. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.
20. Bill Madlock.
21. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138
22. Reggie Smith
23. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.
24. Toby Harrah
25. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Downgraded on consideration of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP.
26. Ben Taylor.
27. Jim Kaat
28. Orlando Cepeda
29. Norm Cash
30. Jim Rice 2452 hits at 128 TB+BB/PA .530, TB+BB/Outs .797. Between Cash and Perez looks about right.

31. Tony Perez. Even here may be too high. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
32. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy.
33. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
34. Cesar Cedeno
35. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
36. Lou Brock
37. Mickey Vernon
38. Thurmon Munson
39. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
40. Sal Maglie.
41. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
42. (N/A) Heinie Manush
43. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
44. Bob Elliott
45. (N/A) Dick Lundy
46. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
47. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
48. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
49. Gene Tenace
50. Kiki Cuyler
51. Deacon McGuire
52. Jerry Koosman.
53. Boog Powell
54. Ken Singleton.
55. Sal Bando.
56. Jim Fregosi.
57. Jack Quinn
58. Tony Mullane
59. Rollie Fingers. Add 1/3 of his saves and he becomes 228-118 or thereabouts, but on my adjustment (add 50% and subtract 5 ERA+ points) he goes to 2550/114, which isn’t enough.
60. Ron Cey
61. Pie Traynor
62. Jim McCormick
63. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
64. Joe Judge
65. Edd Roush Same quality as Beckley but less valuable defensive position and 20% shorter career. Yes, he’s good, but Beckley’s a lot better.
66. Spotswood Poles.
67. Darrell Evans 2223 hits at 119; about 60% 3B, so 9 bonus makes him 128, good, but not enough for ballot. TB+BB/PA .509, TB+BB/Outs .773.
68. Buddy Bell. Just about as good as Darrell Evans because full-time 3B but overrated by WS. 2514 hits at 108, TB+BB/PA .448, TB+BB/Outs .675
69. Larry Doyle
70. Curt Simmons
71. Roger Bresnahan.
72. Waite Hoyt.
73. Harry Hooper.
74. Vada Pinson
75. Gil Hodges
76. Jules Thomas.
77. Rico Carty.
78. Wilbur Cooper
79. Bruce Petway.
80. Jack Clements
81. Graig Nettles.
82. Bill Monroe
83. Herb Pennock
84. Chief Bender
85. Ed Konetchy
86. Al Oliver
87. Jesse Tannehill
88. Bobby Veach
89. Lave Cross
90. Tommy Leach.
91. Tom York

Three Top 10 off my consideration set:

Fox is Rabbit Maranville again, off my ballot with OPS+ well under 100 – I think the old-timers overrated the importance of SS fielding, and underrated the possibility of getting a SS who could hit.

Wynn not nearly good enough a hitter; think we’re giving an excessive CF premium compared to other OF positions.

Keller’s a hitting Dizzy Dean; all peak but very short career (missed 1 ½ years for war, but even with them would be under 1400 hits)

Personal Hall of Merit: Mike Schmidt, Hugh Duffy (yay!) and Don Drysdale (finally!)

1. Mike Schmidt, 3B (n/e) The Greatest Third Basemen of All-Time. An enviable combination of patience (led the league in OBP from ’81-’83 and finished in the top ten 11 times between 1974 and 1986), power (his 548 home runs are 12th best all-time) and defense (10 Gold Gloves in 11 years).

2. Quincy Trouppe, C (5). PHoM- 1977. Not quite the greatest catcher of all-time but like Schmidt, Quincy Trouppe had the whole package of patience, power and defense. His career on-base is 100 points higher than his average, his MLE SLG of .529 in 1948 would have been 5th in either league and, despite some early questions, the evidence is coming in regarding his solid defense. Played in 5 Negro League All-Star games despite spending most of his peak years in Mexico.

3. Nellie Fox, 2B (4). PHoM- 1976. Lots of hits (led his league 4 times for a career total of 2663, 9th most among second basemen), lots of balls in play (led his league in at-bats per strikeout 11 straight years and has the 4th best ratio ever behind HoMers Sewell and Start) and above average defense (3 Gold Gloves).

4. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (6). PHoM- 1975. Great peak years between 1914 and 1919 including a 2.14 ERA in 321 innings for Chicago in 1917 (according to i9). Lost a half a year in each of ’18 and ’19 due to military service. Even so, his career MLEs of 234-174 put him in the neighborhood if not ahead of contemporaries like Coveleski, Faber and Rixey.

5. Lou Brock, LF (7). PHoM- 1985. More patience than he’s usually given credit for- his career OBP is 50 points higher than his AVG and 13 points higher than the league. Never the best in the league but a solid contributor for a long-time with intermittent All-Star appearances from ‘67 to ’79 and significant gray ink from ’64 to ’74.

6. Alejandro Oms, CF (8). PHoM- 1984. His career overlapped too much with Cristobal Torriente for him to be considered the best, but he had a long prime at a high level. Was consistently among the league leaders from 1923 to ’35, usually in average but occasionally in home runs. Superior defensive reputation nearly pushed him ahead of Brock, but Brock keeps the lead based on established rather than estimated career numbers.

7. Burleigh Grimes, P (9). PHoM- 1984. My ballot is starting to fill up with this kind of player- missing the huge peak but a long excellent prime for a decade or more which results in great career numbers. Still, Grimes did have two separate peaks: first in 1920-’21 when he was the best NL’s pitcher in 1921 (138 ERA+ in 302 IP, compared to Adams 144 in 160 and Doak 142 in 208), and a second in 1928-29 (1st in Wins, 2nd in WHIP in ’28; 1st in ERA+, 2nd in ERA in ’29).

8. Hugh Duffy, CF (10). PHoM- 1995. The Triple Crown winner in 1894, Duffy picked up black ink as early as ’90 and as late as ’97. An excellent center-fielder who could have won Gold Gloves in ’93 and ’95, he was moved to left not because of poor play but because his team acquired Billy Hamilton.

9. Don Newcombe, P (11). PHoM- 1987. Great years in ’50-’51 and ’55-’56 interrupted by military service in the Korean War. Missing a rise to his career due to integration and a tail due to his own personal issues (and no, he doesn’t get credit for the latter). With proper credit, he’s well over 200 wins for his career and though he isn’t in the same class as contemporaries like Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce, he’s close enough to be worthy of induction.

10. Jim Rice, LF (n/e). I may be the only one to vote for Rice. Monster years from 1977 to ’79 leading the league twice in home runs and RBI, and in total bases for all three seasons. Even the uber-stats like those years as he was top five in OPS+ and top two in runs created for all three. Another monster year in ’83, leading the league in all three power categories again. Not a great defender, but unlike Brock, not that much below average. Ink scores show him to be similar to Duffy and Cepeda so he lands on my ballot between them.

11. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (12). Cepeda is surprisingly close to his year of eligibility classmate Al Kaline. They have similar amounts of black ink. Cepeda led his league in doubles in 1958, in home runs and RBI in 1961 and in RBI again in 1967. And they have similar lengths to their prime, with Cepeda finishing in the top ten in his league in hits 7, avg and total bases 8, slugging 9, and home runs and RBI 10. At his position, I prefer Cepeda’s peak to that of Beckley and his career to that of Chance.

12. Luis Aparicio, SS (13). PHoM- 1987. He was a star on the basepaths and with the glove. He did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did it better than any of the others. He led his league in stolen bases for 9 straight seasons from ‘56-‘64 and he stayed in the top ten for another 4 until he was 35 in 1969. He won five straight Gold Gloves from ‘58-‘62 and then another 4 in alternating years from ‘64-‘70. Plus, he was notoriously hard to strike out, finishing in the top ten in that category for 16 straight years from ‘58 to ‘73 and leading the league his league twice in ‘69 and ‘73.

13. Rollie Fingers, RP (14). Only Gossage and Rivera have gone to more All-Star games as a reliever than Rollie Fingers. Top two in games pitched six years in a row from ’72 to ’77. Top four in games saved eleven out of twelve years from ’71 to ’82. Retired as the career leader in saves. ERA under 2 three times (’73, ’81 and a short ’84), and under 3 eleven times in twelve years from ’71 to ’82 and again in that short ’84.

14. Jake Beckley, 1B (15). Never the best of the best, but he was good enough for long enough that he has some of the strongest career numbers of any batter on the board. 31st all-time in hits, 4th in triples, 34th in RBI, 41st in runs, 60th in both total bases and times on base, 63rd in doubles and 77th in runs created. Considering schedule length and era, he’s a much better candidate than HoM eligible Tony Perez or HoF eligible Harold Baines.

15. Vic Willis, P (n/a). Moved up relative to other pitchers and onto the ballot relative to other positions. Had an incredible run from 1899 to 1901-02. His league-leading ERA of 2.50 was 1.66 better than league average in ’99. He led his league in ERA+ in both ’99 and ’01, before posting a 2.20 ERA in 410 IP in ‘02. After that, he became more of a workhorse though his ’06 season stands out as a fourth excellent year.

16. Pie Traynor, 3B.
17. Edd Roush, CF.
18. Mickey Welch, P.
19. Ernie Lombardi, C.
20. Bill Monroe, 2B.

Top Returnees:
Jimmy Wynn: Not good enough not long enough. Top ten in OPS six times, but never higher than 4th. An everyday player only 12 seasons, finished at the age of 34.
Charlie Keller: Not good enough not long enough. Only 8 years with more than 100 games played, and that’s counting a year and two-thirds of war credit.
Pete Browning: I voted for Browning a couple of elections back but a more recent and thorough look convinced me to drop him to 5th among centerfielders behind Roush and Pinson.
Edd Roush: #17. Looks like a race to see whether Roush will get on my ballot before he’s elected.

New Eligibles:
Darrell Evans: Despite all his walks, he only finished in the top ten in on-base percentage three times and his career on-base of .361 is less than that of Elliott (.375) and Traynor (.362) both of whom I have ahead at their position.
Buddy Bell: A great defender but would need Brooks Robinson’s longevity or Mike Schmidt’s offense to be ballot-worthy.
Tommy John: He’s Mel Harder with six extra sub-par seasons, or Larry Jackson with twelve. Despite the big pile of career numbers, he’s well behind the elected pitchers from the ‘70s and the unelected Tiant, Kaat and Catfish.

I have ranked players in four categories - WARP (best five seasons), WARP (career total), Win Shares (best three seasons), Win Shares (career total). All four categories are weighted equally, but a players best season is weighted more heavily than his 2nd best and so down to 5th best.

1) Mike Schmidt (891) - likely the best 3B of all time

2) Darrell Evans (533) - assuming his defensive ratings are legetimate

3) Tony Perez (527)

4) Rusty Staub (488)

5) Jimmy Wynn (485)

6) Norm Cash (467) - his best season is better than Schmidt's in both WARP and WS

7) Ken Singleton (466)

8) Graig Nettles (459)

9) Dave Parker (454)

10) Nellie Fox (451)

11) Bobby Bonds (435)

12) Buddy Bell (426)

13) Orlando Cepeda (425)

14) Jose Cruz (418)

15) Cesar Cedeno (417)

kwarren: of your candidates, all except Fox (mostly) and a tiny sliver of Cash played in 162 game seasons. Have you done anything to correct for season length, particularly with Win Shares?

Also: Dave Parker is not yet eligible. You can't vote for him.

To be specific: Parker's last season (and it was a full season) was in 1991. That will make him first eligible in our 1997 election. Check out the "new eligibles" thread for the full list. 1996 and 1997 are fairly thin years - Keith Hernandez, Dwight Evans, Fred Lynn, Rick Reuschel, Frank White, Ken Griffey, Sr., Dan Quisenberry .... Parker hasn't been seriously debated yet, but there's an opening there either for him or for the backlog. But the main point is that he hasn't been seriously debated yet.

kwarren: of your candidates, all except Fox (mostly) and a tiny sliver of Cash played in 162 game seasons. Have you done anything to correct for season length, particularly with Win Shares?

Also: Dave Parker is not yet eligible. You can't vote for him.

1) Mike Schmidt (891) - likely the best 3B of all time

2) Darrell Evans (533) - assuming his defensive ratings are legetimate

3) Tony Perez (527)

4) Rusty Staub (488)

5) Jimmy Wynn (485)

6) Norm Cash (467) - his best season is better than Schmidt's in both WARP and WS

7) Ken Singleton (466)

8) Graig Nettles (459)

9) Nellie Fox (451)

10) Bobby Bonds (435)

11) Buddy Bell (426)

12) Orlando Cepeda (425)

13) Jose Cruz (418)

14) Cesar Cedeno (417)

15) Dave Concepcion (408)


I have dropped Parker and added Concepcion. I have limited my consideration only to players who have played primarily since baseball's integration.

Up until that point it is my belief that the quality of major league baseball in general was so much lower, than it later became, that any meaningful comparison of players between the two leagues becomes virtually impossible. We can't realistically compare how players of each era compared to their peers because a large percentage of their peers were in other leagues and other countries. Players who played before 1947 and are obvious choices for the Hall of Merit are already inducted. It's analogous to countries comparing their Olympic medal totals in 1980 and 1984 with other Olympic games. Any comparison is rendered meaningless by the watered down competition at those games.

kwarren, we could expand the major leagues to include 2,000 more players tomorrow, but it wouldn't change the greatness of the best players one iota. IOW, you're severely overdoing it with the timelining.

Is simply ignoring all pre-integration players constitutional? Sure doesn't sound that way to me...

Is simply ignoring all pre-integration players constitutional? Sure doesn't sound that way to me...

I do think Joe needs to step in and make a decision either way.

This really isn't about Joe -- that ballot is unequivocally unconstitutional. If Babe Ruth were eligible, kwarren is saying he wouldn't be on the ballot. More importantly, he is excluding from consideration an entire class of players.

And, just to be clear kwarren, I am not saying you are wrong. I come pretty close to agreeing with you. But that is not this this project. In this project, we have agreed to consider all eras, regardless of the difficulty in making comparisons and regardless of the view/fact that today's athletes are fitter, healthier and better than those of a hundred years ago.

Right, no offense to kwarren, but that ballot appears to me, at least, to be unconstitutional.

"We can't realistically compare how players of each era compared to their peers because a large percentage of their peers were in other leagues and other countries."

There's some "merit" to that idea, I suppose, but logically wouldn't that also make it impossible to be one of our voters? We all agreed to fully consider all players from all eras, which is how people like Frank Grant and Dobie Moore got elected, as well as Jimmy Sheckard and Sherry Magee and friends.

Agree w/ Daryn. If I happened to feel that the best pre-WWII have already been voted in, and the highest guy left was (I dunno, pick one, say Nellie Fox) legitimatley 18th on my ballot, that is my right as a voter. And it would be your guys' right as other voters to continuously remind me that maybe my esimtation of league strength considerations is erroneous.
But this project demands that none of us a priori reject certain eras or leagues (NgL) or types of players like pitchers (like some who-shall-not-be-named BBWAA MVP voters!).

Agree w/ Daryn. If I happened to feel that the best pre-WWII have already been voted in, and the highest guy left was (I dunno, pick one, say Nellie Fox) legitimatley 18th on my ballot, that is my right as a voter. And it would be your guys' right as other voters to continuously remind me that maybe my esimtation of league strength considerations is erroneous.
But this project demands that none of us a priori reject certain eras or leagues (NgL) or types of players like pitchers (like some who-shall-not-be-named BBWAA MVP voters!).

I agree to all of this. We have had ballots that had strong timelines, but we never had one that totally ignored an entire era like that.

If it were up to me, I would ask for a reconsideration of this policy and a new ballot or else I wouldn't be able to accept the ballot in question.

"Is simply ignoring all pre-integration players constitutional? Sure doesn't sound that way to me..."

That absolutely is unconstitutional.

"If Babe Ruth were eligible, kwarren is saying he wouldn't be on the ballot."

Actually Ken didn't quite say that - he said the no-brainers are already in, and he refuses to consider anyone else. It's still not within our rules, but it is slightly different - I don't want to see him misrepresented.

But, I agree with Daryn and Howie, the ballot is clearly unconstitutional - and things like this were my biggest fear, going all the back to the beginning of the project - that new voters would come in late, and completely disregard history before the players they've 'heard of' or 'remember' or 'saw play' take your pick.

There is very little evidence that integration makes anything prior to 1947 irrelevant. Stan Musial's stats didn't all of the sudden take a nose-dive in the 1950s with all of these post-integration superstars that were added, did they? How about Ted Williams? Heck there's strong evidence the baseball of the late 1930s was the strongest around until 1980s, considering massive expansion more than offset any integration gains (which really didn't kick in full force until the late 1950s).

But that's neither here nor there. The rules are clear - all voters must be fair to all eras. If you cannot see past that, you are welcome to continue to participate, but your ballot will not be counted. For purposes of this project, a pennant is a pennant.

Just to be clear, while I'm strongly it, a timeline adjustment is allowable. Within reason. To completely timeline out 76 years of baseball history is not allowable. If you cannot see the difference, I'm not sure what I can say.

I’m a peak voter. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

A big pitcher overhaul this time, with a bit more emphasis on prime and consistency than I’ve had the past, a shift I’ve been making slowly over the last 10 elections or so at all positions. It had most of its major effects on players below the ballot level, however. Moves up (some large, some small) for Trout, McCormick, Shocker, and Dutch Leonard; down for Gomez, Walters, Sutton, and Joss. Also did a less dramatic hitter overhaul with the same intent, which I hope to have time to put the finishing touches on before next election; the main results so far have been rises for Minoso and Avila, and a drop for Chance.

pHOM: Schmidt, Tim Keefe(!), Doyle

1995 ballot:

1. Mike Schmidt (pHOM 1995). Offensively, it’s the amazing strike season that separates him from Mathews; add the defense, and there’s just no question he’s the best of all time at the position.

2. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me.

3. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). First the ultimate peakster pitcher, then the ultimate peakster hitter. With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s very close to Kiner.

[3a. Tim Keefe (pHOM 1995). Embarrassingly enough, he somehow slipped through the cracks when I was doing my retroactive pHOM for the years I missed, way back when. Not sure if I ran the wrong numbers for him, or if I was just nuts, or if I just somehow forgot about him entirely. Anyway, he shot right up here when I redid my calculations. All’s well that ends well?]

4. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

5. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. Excellent peak.

6. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

7. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). A great deal of his record is lost in the haze of the leagues he played in, but he appears to me to have been among the worthy catchers we've seen. The more that haze begins to dissipate, the clearer it is he belongs.

8. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me.

9. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

10. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluate outfielders, he does a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for.

11. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). No, he wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years to get my vote.

12. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). As with Browning, his numbers are covered in the AA mist, but I’m convinced he played at a high enough level long enough for induction.

13. Nellie Fox (pHOM 1986). The offensive peak leaves a little to be desired, but the defense more than makes up for that, especially at this position.

14. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. (I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats.) The reassessment this time drops him a bit—the peak is short, even shorter than Dean’s—but not immensely.

15. Edd Roush (pHOM 1988). He’s always been confusing, as there are all sorts of reasons to give him bonuses (mainly WWI) and demerits (mainly league quality). In the end, though, I’m a believer in his peak.

16-20: J. Wynn (1987), Duffy (1930), Doyle (1995), [Lyons], McGraw, Redding (1975)
21-25: Oms, Singleton, Trout, [Minoso], F. Howard, Pesky
26-30: Gomez (1987), Da. Evans, Fingers, Bresnahan (1973), Walters (1968)
31-35: Nettles, McCormick, G. Burns, [Boyer], H. Smith, Bando
36-40: Berger, Sutter, [Reese], Cepeda, Avila, H. Wilson
41-45: M. Marshall, Leach, Elliott, Shocker, Munson, Bo. Bonds
46-50: Bo. Bonds, J. Ryan, Rizzuto, Easter, Du. Leonard

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•J. Wynn. Not among my top unelected choices, but a very strong candidate, with a peak that surprised me. He’s in my pHOM now, and, at #16, not too far off ballot.

•Fingers. A tough nut to crack, but in the end I feel he doesn’t quite have the peak I’m looking for. All the other factors pump up his standing though, and he hovers right near my eventual in/out line for my pHOM. He’s at #28 right now.

•Evans. Count me among those who lack faith in the off-the-charts defensive numbers for those few years—I’m sure he was better than his rep, but that much better? That said, his peak at 3B is enough to get him in the mix for eventual pHOMness. Starts at #27.

•Rice. The Addie Joss of hitters, without the whole dying part? I accept my own memory of him as a truly fearsome hitter for several years, but there are just too many other corner OFs he’s not as good as, even on short peak alone. He’s not in my top 50, though he’s not too far outside.

•Bell. I don’t get it. Seems like Nettles-lite to me, and that’s not enough to be close, even at this position.

•John. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he’s not a favorite (though he was for me when I was a kid!). Very, very good pitcher for a very, very, very long time, but the peaklessness is even harder for me to get around than Sutton’s. I do agree he’s better than Kaat, but Kaat is another guy I can’t see at all.

Unconstitutional.

Actually Ken didn't quite say that - he said the no-brainers are already in, and he refuses to consider anyone else. It's still not within our rules, but it is slightly different - I don't want to see him misrepresented.

I agree, my mistake (I just missed that sentence) and apologies to kwarren. The ballot is still unconstitutional.

timeline adjustment is allowable. Within reason.

How do you define "within reason"? That seems a dangerous allowance.

- It's like pornography.

timeline adjustment is allowable. Within reason.

How do you define "within reason"? That seems a dangerous allowance.

- It's like pornography.

Not quite. The big difference between reason and pornography is that only one of them can be found in massive quantities on the Internet.

If someone were, for example, to declare that they use a league strength adjustment based on available population (U.S. white males before 1947, then blacks, with increased scouting into other countries in the recent past) and # of MLB teams, I would think that would be 'reasonable'. It has a basis. I do not agree with that basis based on the evidence, but it is rational and not provably wrong.

1995 Ballot
Easy to vote early when we've hacking away at this fo ran extra week. Great inputs, guys.

Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Mike Schmidt {new}
The 15th best player ever on my ranking list. The best career between 1960 and 1995; that’s 3½ decades.

Men who have won 8 or more home run titles:
Ruth 12
Schmidt 8

Men who have led their league in OPS+ 5 or more years in a row (in chron order):
Brouthers 7
Cobb 9
Ruth 7
Hornsby 7
Schmidt 5
Bonds 5

2- Jake Beckley (3) [13]
Great career.
3- John McGraw (4) [27 and movin’ up!]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base.
4- Darrell Evans {new}
The classic profile of an underrated player; poor batting average, well-rounded skills elsewhere, not in a hitters park or major media market or on great teams. Only if he were a minority and spoke broken English or gave no interviews would he be less well thought of.
I am a bit skeptical of his defensive prowess. Combine that with his ‘newbie’ status, I bumped him off of an ‘elect me’ spot.
5- Bucky Walters (5) [15]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit real well too
6- Frank Chance (7) [60]
A great player on great teams. <u>Better hitter than Gavy Cravath.</u>
From 1903-1906, only Honus Wagner among non-pitchers had more Win Shares than Frank Chance. In that time, Chance collected 120 WS in only 503 games, which would be the 2nd highest career WS rate ever (behind the Babe). Yes, obviously it was only 4 years, but somehow I hardly ever hear Chance mentioned as a peak candidate.
7- Bob Johnson (6) [12]
Very good long prime.
8- Dick Redding (9) [11]
My rankings for not-yet-honored NgLgers goes Redding, Monroe, Trouppe, Oms, Howard, Easter, all-of-the-rest. And the odds that I have them exactly in the unknown “correct” order is … virtually zero. But this is what I gots.
9- George Van Haltren (10) [21]
<u>Three Hundred and Eighty</u> (length adjusted) Win Shares.
10- Charlie Keller (11) [6]
MiL credit and a pinch of great World Series stats gets him on.
11- Jimmy Wynn (12) [5]
He doesn’t look much different than Smith or Bonds or Oms, and we HAVE elected a ton of OFers. I’m okay with the Toy Cannon, but a bit lukewarm.
12- Roger Bresnahan (13) [21]
Best catcher of his era. Position flexibility not a minus.
13- Louis Tiant (14) [29]
Four postseason starts. Averaged 8½ innings, 2.6 ERA, & his team won all 4 games. Take THAT, Bob Gibson and Jack Morris!
14- Rollie Fingers (15) [10]
Post-season credit and inherited runners stranded get him on the ballot.
15- Bill Monroe (off) [52]
From what we know, was much more dominant in his day among dark-skinned stars than Oms or Trouppe. And, we’ve already honored lots of NgL catchers and OFers, while we’ve chosen only one (19th century!) 2Bman. I think Monroe deserves more support.


Other newbies

Buddy Bell - fine player, doesn’t quite do it.
Jim Rice – overrated by the masses. Somewhat underrated by OWP, which penalizes him greatly for his many GIDP. But with all of those runners on, his hits counted more, which is accounted for. Not top 50 tho.
Tommy John – love rooting for him. Poor man’s Sutton tho. Did not stand out in his day. Will not make ballot.
Chris Speier – he had almost 90 WARP? Seriously? I didn’t see him as an amazing glove in the early 70s.

Returning top 10ers:

Edd Roush – George Van Haltren began his career almost a year later in age than Roush. And ended his career a year earlier. In that shorter period of time, Van Haltren gained more Win Shares, and more WARP (either W1 or W3, take your pick) than Roush. Apparently a majority of our voters think both of the uber-stat systems are in error in their assessment. Apparently I disagree with the majority of our voters.

Nellie Fox is around 20; not far from Aparicio, Rizzuto, Maranville, Bancroft, and Concepcion. I’d just as soon have Bill Monroe.

Quincy Trouppe is also around #20 for me. The anecdotal evidence, which is one piece of the puzzle, weighs him down some.

Pete Browning – cover up his seasons before age 25, when he was in a very weak AA, and he looks like Babe Herman. Do we want to elect a guy based on dominating a minor league? Van Haltren had as good an offensive career from age 25 on, and was better with the glove.

16 thru 23:
Grimes, Munson, R Smith, Trouppe, Elliot, Fox, Bonds, D DiMaggio

It looks like it's official then. The ballot(s) submitted by kwarren in posts 16 and 19 have been declared unconstitutional by our commisioner, Joe, and they will n ot count. kwarren has another 6 or so days to reconsider his position vis-a-vis his ballot.

kwarren has another 6 or so days to reconsider his position vis-a-vis his ballot.

I certainly hope he does, Ryan. I wouldn't want this to dissuade him from particpating here.

Primey for #35. And if they don't award Primeys anymore, you really have to start giving them again, just for that.

Unconstitutional, and not a very good ballot based on his stated criteria. Where did the pitchers go? I have a bunch of pitchers better than Cesar Cedeno in my spreadsheet.

TomH "If someone were, for example, to declare that they use a league strength adjustment based on available population (U.S. white males before 1947, then blacks, with increased scouting into other countries in the recent past) and # of MLB teams, I would think that would be 'reasonable'. It has a basis. I do not agree with that basis based on the evidence, but it is rational and not provably wrong."

You mean like WARP3? I agree kwarren could use WARP3. At least he'd put those players in his consideration set. This is why it is a good idea to post a prelim ballot and it should be mandatory for new voters.

This is why we stress that prelims posted to the discussion thread for new voters. (And explanations for each player for new voters as well). I like new voters, and kwarren looks like a great addition to our 'annual' debate, but there's a few business rules that need to be ironed out.

We have always had some forms of "timelining". The goal has always been "equal representation of all eras" so if you can show that a 113 ERA+ in 4800 IP does not stand out amongst your peers in one era (Welch in the 1880s) whilst a 113 ERA+ in 4700 IP does stick out in other eras (Roberts in the 1950s) then by all means judge those two players differently.

We've got great lists posted by Howie every few years to see which eras are being over or underrepresented. Now, we don't want to be too strict with eras quotas because stars can cluster, but its clear that the level of the "bar" for induction does fluctuate.

I think prelims ought to be highly encouraged for everyone the next 2 years (no obvious candidates) just to keep the voting threads readable.

me: "If someone were, for example, to declare that they use a league strength adjustment based on available population..."

DL: "You mean like WARP3?"

WARP3's so-called "timelining" is not nearly as strong as some people's private assessment. It does have Babe Ruth as the #1 player of all time, and even Anson who played ball 135 years ago comes out lookin good, DESPITE the fact that WARP only partially adjusts schedule length. I could name you a few knowledgable fans who believe Anson wouldn't be much of a player today. WARP adjusts pre-WWII players to 2000 era stars less than James' NBJHA timeline, for example. Bill James only has one player whose career was over by 1908 (Kid Nichols) in his top 100 doesn't mean it's right. I might say 8 or 10, and I even admit to timelining somewhat.

But having said that.... THIS project is about respect for all eras. Doesn't mean WE are "right". But it's what we agreed to do.

Right.

Whether Anson would be much of a player today is irrelevant.

Schmidt, Averill and Bonds make my PHOM.

1995

1. Mike Schmidt (-)--He’s good.

2. Pete Browning (3)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

3. Charley Jones (4)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

5. Edd Roush (6)--A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s. Bumped over Doyle this year. (1985)

6. Larry Doyle (7)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

7. Hugh Duffy (8)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

8. George Van Haltren (9)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

9. Carl Mays (10)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit. (1968)

10. Alejandro Oms (11)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

11. Ken Singleton (12)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

12. Jimmy Wynn (13)--Another all-around outfield candidate who gets underrated because he doesn’t stand out in either peak or career. He’s just a little less round than Minoso, Roush or Oms.

(Earl Averill)

13. Bobby Bonds (14)--Very close to Wynn and the fourth in my series of underrated outfielders.

14. Charlie Keller (15)--Just edges out Howard thanks to WARP.

15. Frank Howard (16)--Peak advantage over Evans gets him on the ballot.

(Joe Gordon)
16. Darrell Evans (-)
17. Nellie Fox (17)
18. Quincy Trouppe (18)
(Red Faber)
19. Graig Nettles (19)
(Red Ruffing)
20. John McGraw (100)
21. Rollie Fingers (20)
22. Sal Bando (21)
(Bob Lemon)
23. Bucky Walters (22)
24. Wally Berger (23)
25. Mike Tiernan (98)
26. Cesar Cedeno (24)
27. George Foster (25)
(Ted Lyons)
28. Dick Redding (26)
29. Dave Concepcion (27)
30. Ed Williamson (28)
(Dobie Moore)
31. Tony Perez (29)
32. Rusty Staub (30)
33. Vada Pinson (31)
34. Ron Cey (32)
35. Norm Cash (33)
36. Bruce Sutter (34)
37. Bobby Murcer (35)
38. Orlando Cepeda (36)
(Billy Pierce)
39. Buddy Bell (-)
40. Vern Stephens (37)
41. Roger Bresnahan (38)
42. Lou Brock (39)
43. Dave Bancroft (40)
44. Jimmy Ryan (41)
45. Rabbit Maranville (42)
46. Tony Lazzeri (43)
47. Bob Elliott (44)
48. Phil Rizzuto (45)
(Rube Wadddell)
(Rube Foster)
49. Gavy Cravath (46)
50. Reggie Smith (47)

1995 ballot. All time great gets to go in, we’ll see who else. The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything: WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. Once that is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture, a composite worthy player. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Mike Schmidt (-). Plugging him into a system with the rest below him is just an academic exercise. Here is a guy who looks and smells like the inner circle of ballplayers.

2. Dick Redding (2). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years.

3. Norm Cash (3). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things. You can’t throw away his peak year even though contradicts the rest of his work.

4. Tommy Leach (5). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

5. Bobby Bonds (6). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son. Five tools on display.

6. Darrell Evans (-). Ticked down his numbers a bit since the 3B fielding just didn’t conform to what made sense to me. Still with a conservative approach I can’t place him lower than here. Terrific player, doesn’t get much better for hitting .248.

7. Reggie Smith (8). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup.

8. Roger Bresnahan (9). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

9. Tony Mullane (7). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

10. Bob Johnson (10). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

11. Mickey Welch (11). Another one of those annoying 300 game winners. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey.

12. Alejandro Oms (14). The body of work included Negro and Latin American play. The famous Cuban in on the fringes of ballotness again.

13. Jake Beckley (15). I want to say something substantial about him, add some insight no one else has. Yeah, not really happening. Very good, very long, he’s hardly the worst player out there. And if playing that long was so easy than everyone would have done it.

14. Buddy Bell (-). I’ll go and say he was better than Nettles. Not by much and I could change my mind but that’s where I stand. Underrrated by Win Shares – during his prime he was on some bad teams which in addition underperformed their expected win totals. For an 8 year period his teams underachieved by 32 games. Throw some more WS into his prime and you see a stronger run in the middle of his career. Also, if Darrell Evans was as good a fielder as Buddy Bell then I must have missed something.

15. Carl Mays (16). Good hitting pitcher, aided somewhat by run support at high levels. Even with docking for that we’re talking about a pretty good hurler.

16-20: Perez, Poles, Ryan, Rizzuto, Fingers
21-25: Browning, Walters, Keller, Nettles, Byrd
26-30: Cey, Easter, Willis, Shocker, Bancroft
31-35: Brock, Tiant, Trouppe, Wynn, Duffy
36-40: John, Cross, Cedeno,Luque, Munson
41-45: C Jones, Ben Taylor, Schang, Cicotte, Bridges
46-50: Cruz, Tenace, Trout, Grimes, Clarkson

Top 10 Returnees: Fox (not top 50), Roush(not top 50), Browning (#21), Trouppe (#33), Keller (#23), Fingers (#20), Wynn (#34). Fox is just someone I don’t get. Maybe fills a positional/era gap but I don’t hold to that rigorous “we must have a player covering years X through Y”. The defense was nice but the offense was lacking – it leaned on the OBP side but not so heavily. Roush is falling through the CF glut. Browning have received ballot spots in the past from me and might again. Trouppe is neither my favorite catcher or NeL player so he is waiting below. His MLEs bounce around quite a bit so uncertainty hurts his standing. Keller depending on the gap filling you do can be Elmer Flick or short of Earl Averill. I’m just not as willing to give those filler years the complete peak value needed to reach the ballot yet. Slightly overrated by the great teams he played on, at least from a WS perspective. Fingers is the best reliever available but not so valuable as long term starters. Wynn, just slips some due to not entire time being in CF. Overall, no qualms except maybe Fox and he did have the weak competition argument similar to Sewell.

New guys: Tommy John did better than I expected, another of the long career pitching guys who showed up in the 60s. Jim Rice is well down there, comparable to Rocky Colavito when the ranking gets done.

1995 Ballot

1. Mike Schmidt: Best 3B that ever lived. You could say that in 1995 or 2007.

2. Quincy Trouppe: Trouppe’s the best catcher available. We’re beginning to find more consensus on this guy, and I hope he’s inducted before 2007. His case seems pretty damned solid to me, and while he’s missing documentation of several years at the beginning of his career, we know that
a) he was playing
b) he was good

So what’s the issue? How’s it different than, say war credit? Not too much different. See my comments in the New Eligibles thread (around #865) for more details.

3. Wilbur Cooper: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

4. Alejandro Oms: An outstanding CFer of the 1920s in the NgLs and CWL. Oms may not have a superior peak (it’ll be a long time before we can assess that with a lot of certainty), but we know now that he had a ton of career value to go with enough peak that he’s a wonderful prime/career candidate.

5. Ken Singleton: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons. I’m becoming more comfortable with the conclusions of my Keltner-based system, and this vote is reflective of that.

6. Larry Doyle: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

7. Elston Howard: I’ve finally incorporated MLEs into my new system, and Howard benefits extensively. He vaults upward from around Munson to around Simmons.

8. Bucky Walters: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

9. Edd Roush: He and Duffy score the same in this system, and they are right in the middle of the HOM-level pack of CFs. This rating only includes holdout credit tangentially as a tie-breaker between Edd and Hugh.

10. Hugh Duffy: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a solid selection.

11. Herman Long: Highest rated shortstop out there for me; I’ve never quite understood why he’s not in the same discussion as Bancroft and Sewell. On the other hand, with Dan’s queries in mind, I’ve spotted him lower on the ballot than I had originally intended.

12. Gavy Cravath: The inclusion of MLE credit pushes Cravath northward on my ballot, too. He went from off-ballot (around Reggie Smith or Bobby Murcer) to the range of the very much electable (between Singleton and Goslin). But that’s what happens when you translate a guy’s peak years and add them to his resume.

13. Tommy Leach: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

14. Sal Bando (11th) 35 pts: There’s evidence on all sides here. Some evidence suggests that Bando is obviously inferior to Boyer and maybe to Elliott. Some of that evidence, however, is based in WARP, and given some of the discussion going on lately about it, I’m really down on it as a useful information source, and we already know it has issues with replacement for fielding that may or may not skew its findings. And anyway, is FRAA bulletproof either? I don’t know. Of course other evidence doesn’t include the DH factor.

But there’s very strong evidence in Bando’s favor compared to those other guys. Namely that he, unlike they, was at some point arguably the best player in his league (early 70s), and that he dominated his position for a long period of time. Now we often reflect on the fact that the AL before and somewhat during Bando was a wasteland for 3B, but that misses the point that

a) the same is true for Brooks, who easily won election with a weaker peak/prime
b) the same would be true for other pet 3B candidates like Pie Traynor
c) the same is true for Elliott whose main competition was the very good but not durable Whitey
Kurowski, the good not great P.H. Jones, the WW2 portion of Stan Hack’s career, and a sliver of Eddie Mathews
d) there’s room for all of them.

Now, I’ll grant, I’m a WS voter. Boyer and Bando look very similar, but WS sees what I see: more dominance at the peak end for Bando. So that’s where my vote is going.

15. Darrell Evans: I’m not wowed by Evans, but I do recognize that he’s a strong candidate and would be a solid HOMer. Not great, not flashy, but well above the in/out line and a little below average. I think he’d be a far superior HOMer to Ken Boyer among the men at his own position.

NEW GUYS
Buddy Bell: I’m not voting for Nettles either. But Bell is a member of the All-High-School-Orchestra team:

C: Dave Sax
1B: Sam Horn
2B: Steve Sax
3B: Buddy Bell
SS: Rob Picciolo
RF: Kevin Bass
CF: Gary Woods
LF: Lute Boone (out of position)
DH: Lou Stringer
SP: Bill Singer
SP: Bob Keys
SP: Frank Viola
RP: Tommy Toms
RP: Tim Drummond
RP: Steve Reed


Tommy John: I’m not voting for Kaat either.

Jim Rice: I’m not voting for Roy White either.


RETURNING FAVORITES
-Nellie Fox: Just off my ballot, a very solid HOM citizen some day.
-Pete Browning: Just off my ballot, a very solid, if drunken, HOM citizen some day.
-Jimmy Wynn: Just off my ballot, a very solid HOM citizen some day, but with big, awesome sideburns.
-Charlie Keller: He's just far enough off that 1+ season of war credit doesn't push his profile over the in/out line. But he’s better than Jim Rice for sure.
-Rollie Fingers: I think we'll be overpopulating RP if we choose Fingers and Gossage from their era.

Ballot for 1995 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

I have cut back my "catcher bonus" due to the influx of good candidates lately.
Voting early, but not often, as I am off on vacation (with no internet access).

1) M. SCHMIDT -- !! Prime 1974-87. Best player in 1981, WS adds 1974 and 1980, WARP has him close; also a candidate in 1976, 1977, 1979, 1982, 1983 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1974, 1976, 1977, 1980, 1981, 1983; WARP adds 1975 and 1984, WS adds 1979 and 1982. Other star seasons include 1978, 1986, 1987 plus 1985 at 1B.

2) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

3) J. WYNN -- Best OF on the ballot. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

4) D. EVANS -- Not as good as Ron Cey, but he added enough additional career value to wind up here. (Which shows how close these borderliners are.) Prime 1972-83. Best player candidate by WARP in 1973. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1973. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, plus 1983 and 1987 at 1B. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1972, 1982, and 1985.

5) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

6) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

7) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

8) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

9) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

10) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

11) R. CEY -- Scored better than expected. Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

12) B. BONDS -- Scored much higher than I thought he would. Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

13) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

14) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

15) P. TRAYNOR -- I see the HOM as being somewhat heavy on "bats" (OF/1B) and went to a system organized around position groups (arms/bats/gloves). Traynor was the major beneficiary of the reorg. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

15) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but I have him ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

16) T. MUNSON -- Close to Howard and Freehan. Don't understand the lack of support. Prime 1970-78. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) 1976; WARP adds 1973. Other star seasons include 1970, 1975, 1977. HM in 1971, 1972, 1978.

17) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

18) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

19) R. FINGERS -- Doesn't score well in my system, but that's because relievers have problems in both WS and WARP, on which my All-Star system is based. I had similar problems with Wilhelm. Tentative placement, based on the work of Joe Dimino and Chris Cobb.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Graig Nettles, Nellie Fox, Bobby Veach,
24-26) Dizzy Dean, Dizzy Trout, Ron Guidry,
27-29) Hugh Duffy, Jake Beckley, Edd Roush,
30-32) Vida Blue, Dick Redding, Wilbur Wood,
33-35) Charley Jones, Bob Johnson, Jim McCormick,
36-48) Roger Bresnahan, Ray Schalk, Quincy Trouppe,
39-40) George Foster, Norm Cash,

Keller: peak is not high enough, career is not long enough, when compared to other marginal OFers.

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.

1995 ballot, our 98th

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

I had last year's electees Niekro-Simmons-Sutton at 1-2-6 on my ballot. An unusually high number of my old-time favorites have been elected, so modern candidates will do fairly well on my ballot in some years.

1. MIKE SCHMIDT - Greatest 3B in baseball history. Top 4 in slugging pct and in OPS 12 times from 1974-86, including 5 slugging titles and 5 OPS titles. Also in top 4 in OBP 5 times, including 3 OBP titles. 8 time HR champ and won 5 straight adj OPS+ titles (1980-84) and 6 within 7 years. Cleared 140 in OPS+ 13 times. Top 10 in MVP voting 9 times.
2. PETE BROWNING - I recently looked again at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This lousy fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not as much as some think; it was a different game then.
3. NELLIE FOX - The best of an era at his position. But is this the Sewell argument all over again - one I ultimately found went against Sewell? Ultimately I like Fox better, and Sewell already is a HOMer. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great defensive 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. A lot more seasons than Sewell at middle infield, that helps, too.

4. ROLLIE FINGERS - Yes, a devilish career to evaluate. So how does he wind up nearly atop my backlog again this year? He has many pluses: nine seasons with 100 relief IP (Rivera has one, as a setup man). He won about 100 games in relief not as a vulture, but as a guy pitching when it mattered most. For those dazzled by modern save totals, realize that Fingers was in the top 4 in his league in SVs 11 times (to 8 for Sutter and 7 for Rivera). Sutter pitched more than 107 IP once - Fingers did that 10 consecutive years. Sutter's peak is higher, for sure. But Fingers had a couple of other-worldly years, too. But most of all, what wins Fingers this slot is his inherited-runner numbers (and bonus World Series heroics). Fingers' teams just kept winning games he pitched for them - often he'd win himself, and often he'd save the day with runners on. In some way, I think Fingers was SO good in the 'clutch' for so long that it seems like he was not just getting lucky over and over again. Either way, the results were of immense value.
5. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over a dozen strong years. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
6. JAKE BECKLEY - Ah, the great polarizer. I should note that this is not as much a "elect Beckley" play as a "hey, they're making me pick 15 people vote, and I don't like the other guys more." His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (though not as much as I used to think), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters. The biggest issue for him may be the 8 seasons in the 120s - I find that quite valuable given era and position; others do not.
7. QUINCY TROUPPE - Leaped onto my ballot for the first time ever a few years back, as I'm now starting to believe he wasn't just a durable, long-career catcher. A better hitter than I'd thought previously - he didn't always get to play against many HOMers, but stacked up nicely when he did.
8. BOB ELLIOTT - Bob helps me from being TOO far ahead of the consensus pack, lol. If you haven't examined him in a while - or ever - get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B. Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out HOMer Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than Evans (see Evans thread).
9. BRUCE SUTTER - Didn't expect to vote for him, but he did throw 100 IP a year, not 75 like today's closers - and that really adds value. Was only a monster K guy for half his career, made a nice adjustment thereafter to still be effective. I'll be happier if he has to wait a while, but I can't just withhold my vote til he does.
10. EDD ROUSH - Has anyone read the new book on him called "Red Legs and Black Sox?" The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re WW I. Reggie Smith is an interesting comp. Lucky to be in the Hall of Fame, but too good for too long to avoid gaining his (second-ever?) spot on my ballot. Will hover up and down my bottom 5 slots, I imagine.
11. CHARLIE KELLER - Continues to climb the ballot of this non-peak voter. Poor man's Ralph Kiner, but even Kiner's election didn't quite get Keller onto my ballot for a long time. Of his six actual big seasons, one was a weakened 1943 and another is a slight issue, 1942. Still, he has a dazzling peak that seems likely to have been longer if not for WW II.
12. DARRELL EVANS - No, I don't fully buy the fielding stats, and his thread suggests several leads that back up that sense. Elliott was a better hitter during each's years as a 3B, and after that Evans mostly just adds league-average 1B/DH time. I value a string of OPS+ 120s more than many voters, but I don't give much if any credit to a string of 110s as a DH/modern 1B.
13. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
14. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - 2nd-best SP remaining. A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
15. TONY PEREZ - First time on my ballot. Better peak than Evans in terms of rate, and very similar long careers otherwise. But extra time and better play at 3B made the difference.



OF THE 10 TOP RETURNEES, DID NOT VOTE FOR:
JIMMY WYNN - Wildly underrated by baseball fans, and threatens to be just as wildly overrated here. I almost like Reggie Smith better, and surely Johnson, and Roush, Keller, and maybe Cravath were just as good or better. Still, the OPS+s are undeniable, and the fielding/position gives some boost. Has not yet reached my ballot, but might at some point if he's still around.

NEWBIES
JIM RICE - A little better than I've gotten used to expecting. A little more longevity or fiedling boost might have made the difference.
TOMMY JOHN - I can live with his ERA+s if he's more of a workhorse, but he wasn't. Won't make any of my ballots.
BUDDY BELL - Virtually identical to Nettles.


JUST MISSED
BUCKY WALTERS - Slipped back off the ballot again; very borderline. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from Welch on occasion.
FRANK HOWARD - An astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons, too. Had five more solid ones as well; I think he had more impact even admitting the fielding demerits in relation to Wynn. Might get on the ballot if one of my OFs gets elected.
GAVY CRAVATH - 4th time off my ballot in about 20 years, in reconsideration of Baker Bowl - sure he smartly took advantage, but others didn't have that opportunity. He has some Rice in him. But I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd have been right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. Will return to my ballot.
THURMAN MUNSON - Don't overrate the "if only" bonus, because his career was near-done, especially as a catcher. But a very nice prime on some very good teams, and clearly he had a big part in that, also hit for a high avg in the postseason. Compares quite well with electee Freehan.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
DAVE CONCEPCION - Nellie Fox lite, may make it onto my ballot soon.
RON CEY - I have him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting.
GRAIG NETTLES - Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78.

PHOM
Mike Schmidt
Darrell Evans
Quincy Trouppe

1995 Ballot
1. Mike Schmidt - Elected PHOM in 1995
2. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
3. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
5. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
6. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
7. Edd Roush – Better than Carey. Elected PHOM in 1975.
8. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
9. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
10. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
11. Ed Williamson – I’ll take him over Boyer. Elected PHOM in 1958
12. Dizzy Dean –Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
13. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985
14. Jimmy Wynn – Another time and place he’d be a HOFer. Elected PHOM in 1985
15. Darrell Evans - Defense not as good as Warp and WS shows. Elected PHOM in 1995.

Required Disclosures
Quincy Trouppe - Oops, found out I was using the wrong MLE's on his thread. After re-reading his thread and re-evaluating, he jumps up big time. Just misses my ballot.
Keller is in my PHOM and Fingers and Fox are likely to get in eventially too.

Off the ballot
16-20 Trouppe,Keller,Bresnahan,Cravath,Sutter
21-25 Fingers,Newcombe,Leach,Bond,Mays
26-30 Monroe,Fox,WCooper,Easter,Elliott
31-35 Traynor,Johnson,Singleton,Munson,Scales
36-40 Nettles,Tiernan,FHoward,HSmith,Shocker
41-45 MWilliams,Bando,Doyle,FJOnes,Cey
46-50 HWilson,Rizzuto,Schang,McGraw,AWilson

JIM RICE - A little better than I've gotten used to expecting.

Damning by faint praise, or praising by faint damnation? ; )

Yeah, I watched Rice's whole career and thought he was great.
Then I realized how overrated he was, and I figured he wouldn't be close to my ballot. But the peak is quite nice, actually, moreso than my adjusted sense of him had thought.

If that makes sense.

wow, no wonder Eric and I are 180 deg out

guys on both of our ballots:

Mike Schmidt (1, 1)
Bucky Walters (8, 5)
Darrel Evans (15, 3)

then Eric has Quincy Trouppe : Wilbur Cooper: Alejandro Oms: Ken Singleton: Larry Doyle: Elston Howard: Edd Roush: Hugh Duffy: Herman Long: Gavy Cravath: Tommy Leach: Sal Bando

while I have listed Jake Beckley - John McGraw - Frank Chance - Bob Johnson - Dick Redding - George Van Haltren - Charlie Keller - Jimmy Wynn - Roger Bresnahan - Louis Tiant - Rollie Fingers - Bill Monroe

Next thing I know, Eric is likely to tell me he loves peanut butter, rap music, WWF, Al Sharpton and Strom Thurmond...

Both of your ballots are weird ;-) Mine OTOH is, well, never mind.

And just for the record--peanut butter, yes; rap, no. But they do make a nice combo--I recommend peanut butter all over the rap CDs, especially the one in the car next to me on the street.

kwarren, we could expand the major leagues to include 2,000 more players tomorrow, but it wouldn't change the greatness of the best players one iota. IOW, you're severely overdoing it with the timelining.

If you were doing a track and field Hall of Fame, how would you deal with this not so hypothetical situation.

Top white sprinters in the 1900 to 1950 era - 10.30 to 10.40 for 100m

Top black sprinters - we don't know, they weren't allowed to compete but ran their own races and didn't record times.

Integrated era - 9.80 - 10.00 - top 20 in the world all black.

Do we induct white sprinters in the pre-integration era based on their performance against other white sprinters. Do we assume that they were better than the black sprinters, who we have reliable data for. Do we induct only black sprinters based on their reputations and anecdotal evidence because we "know" they are faster than white sprinters.

Do we put the Olympics and world championships before integration on an equal footing with those that occurred after integration? And if not how do we handle the two different eras of competition.

Next thing I know, Eric is likely to tell me he loves peanut butter, rap music, WWF, Al Sharpton and Strom Thurmond...

Well, I do have a soft spot for chunky, but the others...not so much. On the other hand, you'll tell me that you're a sucker for asparagus and brussels sprouts, you think Blues Traveller and Elton John rock out; the NFL is your real passion; and your favorite guilty-pleasure reading is David Brooks and Bill O'Reilly. ; )

The funny thing is that neither of us is explicitly a peak or career voter based on the diversity of guys o our ballots. We just don't see eye to eye!

I recommend peanut butter all over the rap CDs, especially the one in the car next to me on the street.

Wow, the grumpy, old Murray Chass/George Vecsey inside of Sunnyday comes out. Those darned kids and their newfangled music!!!! ; )

Is simply ignoring all pre-integration players constitutional? Sure doesn't sound that way to me...

There have been 55 previous elections to induct players from the pre-itegration era. If they haven't been inducted yet, there must be enough doubt that we don't need to push their cases too much further, since we know for certain that they played in a watered-down league compared to the more recent players we are evaluating. This does need to be taken into consideration at some level.

Agree w/ Daryn. If I happened to feel that the best pre-WWII have already been voted in, and the highest guy left was (I dunno, pick one, say Nellie Fox) legitimatley 18th on my ballot, that is my right as a voter. And it would be your guys' right as other voters to continuously remind me that maybe my esimtation of league strength considerations is erroneous.

This pretty much reflects my philosophy. And Nellie Fox is on my ballot in 10th place.

A few random points:

First, feats of strength and speed have changed over time. However, baseball is not just dependent on strength or speed or size, as compared with track or football or basketball.

Second, I do believe that the level of competition has increased greatly over time - in large part due to the available talent pool. I'm not just talking about the number of eligible males of the right age living in the United States. I'm talking about the number of eligible males of the right age who spent a large amount of time playing baseball as a youth, in a place that they would later be noticed by a major league scout if they were good enough. In the early days of baseball, scouting was a crapshoot.

Having said this, in order to conduct an exercise such as the HOM, you need rules such as what has already been set up in the constitution - making kwarren's points irrelevant, even though I agree with the sentiment.

Finally, for the purposes of determining the best all time ballplayers, I would assume that the level of competition isn't that different from 1905 to 2005, even though I don't really think that's its true. However, I just can't assume that quality of play was similar in 1871 and 1971 - it just defies logic and common sense. I would never, for example, claim that a player who retired before 1880 is one of the greatest of all time.

Top white sprinters in the 1900 to 1950 era - 10.30 to 10.40 for 100m

Top black sprinters - we don't know, they weren't allowed to compete but ran their own races and didn't record times.

Integrated era - 9.80 - 10.00 - top 20 in the world all black.

Do we induct white sprinters in the pre-integration era based on their performance against other white sprinters. Do we assume that they were better than the black sprinters, who we have reliable data for. Do we induct only black sprinters based on their reputations and anecdotal evidence because we "know" they are faster than white sprinters.

This example is a lot more difficult question than the one we are dealing with. In baseball, the blacks did keep statistics, and they "ran" against the whites, and when they did, neither side dominated. The analysis required for pre-integration baseball is not nearly as theoretical as your hypo.

There have been 55 previous elections to induct players from the pre-itegration era. If they haven't been inducted yet, there must be enough doubt that we don't need to push their cases too much further, since we know for certain that they played in a watered-down league compared to the more recent players we are evaluating. This does need to be taken into consideration at some level.

We are at the stage of the project where we are filling the last few spots in the HoM (other than the spots that will be taken by upcoming "nobrainers"). As a result, all of the backlog candidates have a lot of doubt. There is no reason to select from only one doubt-filled group at the expense of another.

"If Babe Ruth were eligible, kwarren is saying he wouldn't be on the ballot."

Actually Ken didn't quite say that - he said the no-brainers are already in, and he refuses to consider anyone else. It's still not within our rules, but it is slightly different - I don't want to see him misrepresented.

You're right, I didn't say that at all. Players like Musial, Ruth, Gehrig, Josh Gibson, Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Wagner, Oscar Charleston, Ty Cobb, Joe Jackson, etc are in and clearly should be. What I am saying is that players who have been not inducted in 56 previous ballots and who played in watered-down leagues have probably been given enough consideration. I don't have a problem with other voting for them and if one gets in that fine. I just happen to think that we have already inducted all the players from the era who are clearly deserving and prefer to give the benefit of any remaining doubt to guys who played in a league that was much more open. Unfortunatly, Japanese and Cuban ball players are still facing huge obstacles in getting to the major leagues and as we saw in the World Baseball Classic.....these guys can play a little bit.

players who have been not inducted in 56 previous ballots and who played in watered-down leagues have probably been given enough consideration.

This is where my issue comes in. The problem here is that we've all gone back and forth on players. We've all found new information about a guy. Some ofus calculate or recalculatd MLEs for players that have been around a while. Stuff comes up all the time, it's the nature of the thing. It's why we have perpetual eligibility. Closing down entire, large eras is sort of like saying you're no longer open to new information. Which is, for me at least, antithetical to the spirit, if not the letter, of our procedings.

Just to be clear, while I'm strongly it, a timeline adjustment is allowable. Within reason. To completely timeline out 76 years of baseball history is not allowable. If you cannot see the difference, I'm not sure what I can say.

I am not completely timelining out 76 years of baseball. See previous posts.

A timeline is absolutely necessary as is an adjustment to reflect the strength of the leagues over time. for reasons that have nothing to do with timelining. If you cannot see that, I'm not sure what I can say...except possibly that you are very naive as to the qualitly of athletic endeavours in the early nineties. Look at track and field stats, swimming stats, anything where performance can be compared over time. The top athletes in the world then wouldn't even be the best in a typical high school now.

Even Jim Ryan who was a high school phenom in the 60's would be nothing special now.

My bad on the use of Nellie Fox in my illustration. Durn it, Tom, if you're gonna make an illustration about pre-WWII players, at least USE a guy who PLAYED BEFORE WWII!!
I shoulda picked Ed Roush.

Of course, the reason some players haven't gotten in for 30 or 60 ballots is we only elected 1 or 2 per year for a long time. Now we're electing 3.

kwarren, you're comments about the level of play make sense on some level but that's not the way we set things up here. A HOM where we use the "time machine argument" to surmise that a guy like Ed Delahanty wouldn't fare well against Pedro Martinez is just not the HOM that we set up. We could have done it that way, but we didn't. We're looking mostly at value here, not ability. For cases like NeL's, integration era, and war guys we've struggled to create MLE's to determine what value they would have generated if given a fair shake in that era.

Maintaining an era balance among our "borderline" inductees is just as important as the inner-circle guys. Now, the post-expansion eras should indeed be better represented than pre-expansion (we allotted more slots) but I don't think we should ever close the door on the pre-integration era.

Can we take this to another thread? The ballot thread tends to get cluttered up when debates happen here.

It looks like it's official then. The ballot(s) submitted by kwarren in posts 16 and 19 have been declared unconstitutional by our commisioner, Joe, and they will n ot count. kwarren has another 6 or so days to reconsider his position vis-a-vis his ballot.
39. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 27, 2007 at 07:52 AM (#2303778)
kwarren has another 6 or so days to reconsider his position vis-a-vis his ballot.

I certainly hope he does, Ryan. I wouldn't want this to dissuade him from particpating here.

Whether you count my ballot or now is of little consequence to me. I will still participate in discussions and evaluations of players who were truly great in the pre-integration era and those that played later when major league baseball gradually grew to encompass about 90% of the world's best players.

I'm not sure exactly how to change my ballot. I have looked at the players that are getting a lot of mention and nobody gets to 400 in my point system, and this doesn't even adjust for the weaker league they played in, although the WARP3 portion of the analysis it timelined. I did consider pitchers and the top two are Luis Tiant (363) and Tommy John (330). When you consider that Roger Clemens is at 749, Maddux at 676, Mussina 487, and Schilling 473, Sutton at 487.....these guys are just too much inferior. And I have 15 position players who were clearly better. This won't be the case on all my ballots.

I will still participate in discussions and evaluations of players who were truly great in the pre-integration era and those that played later when major league baseball gradually grew to encompass about 90% of the world's best players.

Excellent! I think I speak for everyone when I say, we're happy that you contribute to discussions, and we hope you continue to do so.

I will still participate in discussions and evaluations of players who were truly great in the pre-integration era and those that played later when major league baseball gradually grew to encompass about 90% of the world's best players.

I appreciate the rhetoric here, but that's just not the HOM that we set up.

Every hall is going to have its borderline inductees and many of us are actually proud of the fact that our borderliners are evenly distributed across all eras. Any hall where the borderline guys are skewed towards newer eras is going to be dated by definition. If we redid this experiment in twenty years, then all of those borderline 70s-80s guys we put ahead of guys from earlier eras will be replaced by borderline 90s-00s guys.

For those dazzled by modern save totals, realize that Fingers was in the top 4 in his league in SVs 11 times (to 8 for Sutter and 7 for Rivera).

Hopefully nobody raised their hand. I believe you've mistaken us for Joe Fan.

Excellent! I think I speak for everyone when I say, we're happy that you contribute to discussions, and we hope you continue to do so.

Yeah... me too. I'm disagreeing with you right now, but I'm glad you are sticking around. :-)

4. ROLLIE FINGERS -
9. BRUCE SUTTER -

Two relievers in the top nine. Wow.

Clemens is 749 and Schmidt is 841. Rusty Staub and Mike Mussina are equals. I have a feeling your pHoM is much less than 33% pitching, probably more like 20%.

Rice #40, Speier #102, John #107, Sundberg and Tekulve memorable but well off ballot.

1) Schmidt--Greatest 3B ever.
2) Darrell Evans--Not as impressed as I thought I would be, but still, he should be in.
3) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
4) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. A 94 OPS+ is strong for a grade A second baseman, compare Mazeroski at 84. 1957 and 1959 are great peak seasons (11.8 and 9.8 warp3). 1951-1960 is a high sustained prime. PHoM in 1970.
5) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
6) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders.
7) Keller--There’s no doubt he was one of the great hitters when healthy, 152 career OPS+ is #28 all time. An MVP type season every year from 1940-46 when not at war. That’s enough prime for me, even without longevity. PHoM 1985.
8) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2.
9) Perez--Interesting, most people like his career, but wait a minute…he was playing third base from 1967-1971…there’s a peak there.
10) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
11) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
12) Cey--I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch. I assume Cey and Elliott’s lack of support is a bad omen for Nettles, Buddy Bell, and Ventura.
13) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.
14) Jimmy Wynn--PHoM 1987. In 1965 had a MVP type season completely obscured by the Astrodome and era. Best years were not consecutive but impressive: 11.0, 10.3, 9.8, 9.5, 9.0, 8.1, 7.4 by warp3.
15) Buddy Bell--The number of other 3b candidates should not be held against him. Compare him to the average starting 3b of the era and clearly he was a superior player. Compare Bell’s 108 OPS+ to say Ray Knight (99), Phil Garner (99), Enos Cabell (93)—none of whom were good fielders at 3rd. It’s a tough position. Apparently I’m doomed to end this exercise with 10 third baseman on my ballot.
16) Munson--PHoM 1991. I like Munson more than Freehan because of the peak. 1970, 73 and 75-77 were big seasons for a catcher.
17) Fingers--ERA+ not impressive, but by other measures better.
18) Trouppe--PHoM 1988.
19) Dick Redding--PHoM 1985.
20) Bartell-- Add a little war credit too.

Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much. Not in my top 100.
Roush – #71 with no extra credit. It would take a lot of extra credit to get him on ballot.

1. Other random points: Nellie Fox was pre-WWII? That comment is unconstitutional.

2. Joe said k's ballot is unconstitutional.

3. Let's argue about it on the ballot discussion thread.

Were I a HOM voter, I'd be rather annoyed that you're coming in here at the end, setting arbitrary cut-offs in who you will consider, making incorrect assumptions about the structure of the voting and why older players are still on the ballot. But I'm not, so....

I apologize to all those that my ignorance is offending. Sorry.

When I started reading about the Hall of Merit voting, I had no idea that it had already been decided that we must have equal representation from each time period. Since that is the case I guess it forces us to a look at uninducted players from before WWII if that time period is under represented.

Perhaps if I use WARP1 instead of WARP3 I would end up with some pre-integration players in my top 15. Failing that I could incorporate an adjustment factor to force the best of them to appear on my ballot.

I put my comments on the ballot discussion thread...

There are no quotas for era or position, only requirements that they are considered equally.

Quick ballot this week. I hope its OK. I'll be out of town for the rest of the week.

1995 Ballot

1. Mike Schmidt -- Inner circle. Six Win Shares MVP's. A close second a couple of times as well.
2. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
3. John McGraw -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
4. Gavvy Cravath -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
5. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play.
6. Roger Bresnahan -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so

far.
7. Charlie Keller -- With war credit, his peak ranks right up with guys like Kiner. Will he get into the HOM before the great flood

of expansion era hitters clogs the backlog?
8. Charley Jones -- Unfairly blacklisted early hitting star.
9. Quincy Trouppe -- Excellent multi-positional star from an underrepresented era.
10. Al Rosen -- For five years, he was one of the greatest hitting 3B of all time.
11. Pete Browning -- Another short-career high peak hitter. These guys used to be just off my ballot, but they've percolated into

points positions.
12. Bob Elliott -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
13. Mickey Welch -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
14. Frank Chance -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
15. Rollie Fingers -- Best reliever eligible.
16-20. Roush, Lombardi, DaEvans, Fox, BJohnson,
21-25. Beckley, FHoward, Cash, Leach, Nettles,
26-30. Bando, JWynn, Cepeda, Cey, Singleton,
31. Brock, Staub

DavidFoss,

I notice that there is only two post-1960 players among your top 15, but there are 11 among the next 16. Are you sure you are being fair to the borderline candidates from recent decades? They seem disproportionately just off ballot. Or is it that borderline candidates from earlier decades are being squeezed out of the top 30?

Maybe a thing to look at when you get back?

Maybe a thing to look at when you get back?

Thanks for the feedback. Perhaps I'm a bit too worried about the "Bill Terry" effect and I've been slotting broderline newbies too low. (Though I've been very generous with non-HOF first balloters like Torre, Allen and Simmons).

Now that we're close to being done with newbies from the 60s I should reevaluate those guys and perhaps give boosts to guys like Cash, Howard and Cepeda. (Although, I'm wary about voting for too many corners so I'd have to rerank my corners).

I do think we need more 60s/70s inductees than previous eras. More teams, more games, more win shares to distribute. Expansion kept pace with talent in my opinion and didn't water things down. I gotta run, but I'll reevaluate next year.

I do think we need more 60s/70s inductees than previous eras. More teams, more games, more win shares to distribute. Expansion kept pace with talent in my opinion and didn't water things down.

Replying to myself. More inducteees meaning roughly proportional to the number of teams... no strict quotas... allotments for the fact that talent does not instantly redisturbute the exact year of an expandsion, etc. Our election schedule is rigged to roughly match the number of teams playing (elect 3 now... elect 2 in smaller leagues, etc).

DavidFoss, although the increasing talent pool may have meant that the overall quality of league play remained constant through the 1960s expansions, it most definitely had an effect on standard deviations that has to be taken into account...it wasn't a coincidence that Maris, Mantle, Cash, and Gentile all went bonkers on the AL in '61, or that McCovey, Wynn, Staub, Reggie Jackson, Bando, and Petrocelli *all* had career years in '69. It is interesting that no one seems to really have taken advantage of the '62 NL expansion besides Tommy Davis; Mays and Frank Robinson had spectacular years but neither had their best season in '62. Probably just randomness.

I take a combination of career and peak and mix em up like gumbo.


1) Mike Schmidt – Best 3rd Basemen ever.
2) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
3) Chuck Klein – 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
4) Burleigh Grimes – 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
5) Pie Trayner – .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
6) Luis Aparicio – nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
7) Rollie Fingers – The first of the great modern relievers.
8) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
9) Ernie Lombardi – 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
10) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
11) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
12) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller gets more votes than him.
13) Gavvy Cravath - The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
14) Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
15) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits.

No soup for…

16) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
17) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
18) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
19) Edd Roush – I like Rice better.
20) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
21) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
22) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
23) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
24) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
25) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
26) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
27) Tommy John &
28) Jim Kaat &
29) Darrell Evans - I am comfortable with these three in these positions. Career length enabled them to put up some interesting numbers, but I don’t think any of them are good enough for the HOM (or the HOF for that matter).
30) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
31) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
32) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
33) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
34) Vida Blue – What might have been…
35) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
36) Don Baylor &
37) Reggie Smith &
38) Jimmy Wynn- The Hall of very good beckons
39) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
40) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.
41) Cecil Cooper – He had a hechuva peak. As a Yankees fan, I absolutely hated seeing him come up. As scary to any Yankees fan in the early 80’s as David Ortiz is now.
42) Quincy Trouppe- Not sold on him. Certainly isn't one of the top ten catchers.

Yes, there will be the blips in 61,62,69 and corresponding blips in 1900 and 1892 and we can't have strict quotas.... talent didn't instantly redistribute.

> no one seems to really have taken advantage of the '62 NL expansion

If I'm reading correctly the AL expansion grabbed players from AL teams and the NL expansion drafted from NL teams. This would be further evidence of a stronger NL during tht period.

> no one seems to really have taken advantage of the '62 NL expansion

Well, Maury Wills and Tommy Davis impressed fans in a couple of important stats that year.

Well, Maury Wills and Tommy Davis impressed fans in a couple of important stats that year.

If you do an end-of-season all-star team, Davis wouldn't be in the starting lineup. Which is another way of saying there was nothing wrong with any of Mays, Aaron, or Robinson that year.

I'm not sure exactly how to change my ballot. I have looked at the players that are getting a lot of mention and nobody gets to 400 in my point system

Ergo, jwarren has considered players from all eras within a rating system based on a legitimate philosophy. Sure seems constitutional to me.

1995 Ballot

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments. I have recently become concerned at the impact of the very-low-replacement level of both WARP1 and WS on my rankings. I include a rate stat in my system, but I am not confident that it compensates sufficient for the overvaluing of pure playing time by the comprehensive metrics. I haven’t had time to revamp my system to adjust replacement level yet, but one of my subjective adjustments identifies players who are likely to be overrated somewhat for this reason.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Mike Schmidt (4). % = 1.7518. #1 third baseman of all time. #2 player of the 1970s, after Joe Morgan. #2 player of the 1980s, after Rickey Henderson. There was once a lot of sportswriter talk about how he thought too much, as I recall. Right. He’s somewhere between #15 and #20 all time through 1995.
2. Quincy Trouppe (5). % = 1.0453. Once again, a catcher in the 2-hole. Maybe this will be his year? Discussion of the anecdotal record solidifies Trouppe’s case for me. I think he is disadvantaged in NeL lore because he was not slick behind the plate. The comment cited from one former NeL player that Trouppe was a great athlete who could have played other positions, but he was only an ok catcher strongly suggests that the oral history underrates Trouppe for the same reason it has overrated players like Oliver Marcelle and Judy Johnson.
3. Edd Roush (6). % = 1.0487. Arguments for credit for hold-out seasons were persuasive with me.
4. Charlie Keller (7). % = 1.0589. Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
5. Rollie Fingers (8) % = 1.0419. Fingers shows up comfortably above the in/out line in my system. He was not as lights-out as we have come to expect the modern closer to be, but he was still highly effective, extremely durable, and highly leveraged.
6. Dave Bancroft (9). % = 1.0463. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him. Someone asked how Nellie Fox was better than Bancroft. A pertinent question, since they were equal offensive players, and Bancroft was a top defender at a more important position. Fox definitely enjoys an edge in seasonal-durability, but I prefer Bancroft’s defensive edge.
7. Alejandro Oms (10) % = 1.0407. As in the case of Roush, I was wrong to be ignoring the evidence of his quality.
8. Tommy Leach (11). % = 1.0381. Outstanding player for a long time. Andrew Siegel’s brief analysis of his case is excellent.
9. Darrell Evans (n/e). % = 1.0488. He’s Tony Perez +. This ranking is with his fielding peak adjusted downward by .5 wins per year. He’s still a little overrated in my system for the same reason Perez is overrated, and I’d rather have Leach’s defense, so he starts here. He certainly ought to be elected, and fairly soon, but I’m not convinced he should go over top of all of the backlog.
10. Jimmy Wynn (12). % = 1.0386. Not the perfect candidate, but his peak is that bit better than the other medium career outfielders who are his near contemporaries, and his career stacks up well with theirs, also.
11. Jake Beckley (13). % = 1.0250. Staub’s record and his are not so different as to make it outrageous to look at them together, but Beckley’s defensive performance was consistently superior, giving him the edge over Le Grand Orange, who was never outstanding defensively, and who had very little defensive value at all over the second half of his career.
12. Rabbit Maranville (14) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader (excepting Schmidt) among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study suggests I was overvaluing him, but he still has a strong career argument.
13. Bus Clarkson (15). % = 1.00. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him the edge over Perez.
14. Tony Perez (16). % = 1.0327. In a tightly bunched group of long career hitters with Beckley, Cash, and Staub, and also comparable to “prime” hitter candidates Wynn and. Bonds. Overall, he placed in the middle of this tightly bunched group. An excellent hitter for a few years, a very good hitter for many years. Helped by being a decent third baseman for a while, and being good defensively at first. (Win shares has him at B-, just above average, at each position. He never won a WS gold glove at first, but he was among the top 5 in fws at first every season during the 1970s.) It’s his defense, surprisingly enough, that pushes him ahead of Staub, who was a little better with the bat. It’s durability that pushes him ahead of Cash. His 12-year prime and Bonds’ 12-year prime were almost identical in value; Perez’s decline phase gives him the nod over Bonds. Win shares _hugely_ overrates this tail period, which is why I have adjusted him downward from his rank according to my system (I haven’t had time to make a comprehensive adjustment to the system yet). However, he did have some value, which is more than Bonds did when he wasn’t playing.
15. Bobby Bonds (17) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.

1995 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Charley Jones (18). % = 1.00. This year I prefer Bobby Bonds.
17. Luis Tiant (19). % = 1.0024. Best backlog starting pitcher available. I see him as having about the same overall value as Jim Bunning: a little less than Billy Pierce. His prime was broken up by arm injuries, but he was excellent on either side of his injury years. Worthy of election, but I’m not in any hurry to push his candidacy.
18. Buddy Bell (n/e). % = 1.0349. Better than I realized. Both WARP and WS love his defense, and he’s on the good side of the in-out line by both metrics in my system. A lot of comparisons to Nettles, but his defensive excellence appears to have lasted longer. This is a tentative placement. I have ranked him below what his percentile ranking suggests because I am not exactly sure where the in-out line for the 1980s will end up. Right now it is quite low, but it could rise as I finish evaluating that decade’s candidates.
19. Graig Nettles (28). % = 1.00. Great defender, decent hitter for a long time. Looks identical to Bell in overall merit, and I prefer both to Nellie Fox.
20. Norm Cash. (20) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Bonds on league-strength considerations.
21. Nellie Fox (21). % = 1.00. I thought he wasn’t going to make my ballot before he was elected. Since his drive to election has slowed, maybe he will. Average bat, excellent glove, excellent durability at a position where durability was difficult make for an excellent second-base package, but it doesn’t match what Bancroft, Maranville, Bell, and Nettles have to offer as bat-glove packages.
22. Rusty Staub (22) % = 1.0457. My system argues for a higher placement than I have given Staub, but few players that I have ranked have added more career value in a series of below-average seasons, so I believe my system overrates him. He was legitimately outstanding during his peak in Montreal, however, so he should be in the mix. A career-slice approach suggests that the contemporary “bat” players to whom he is closest in value are Bonds and Norm Cash, so I am ranking him just a little below the two of them. His profile is also a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, actually, which provides another justification for ranking him about here, just a half dozen spots ahead of the best outfielder from the 1890s still eligible.
23. Gavvy Cravath (23). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Slips a little bit as a result of recent discussions, which have made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia. I am therefore having a harder time seeing what makes him better than Bob Johnson.
24. Joe Tinker (24). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
25. Tommy John (n/e). % = 1.0308. Slightly overrated in my system. People talked about Sutton as lacking peak. He was loaded with peak compared to John, who really deserved the “Jake Beckley of pitchers” title. I like his career fine, but if you look at innings and rate, he was above average for less than half of his career, so his peak is really weak. I don’t oppose his election, but I certainly don’t favor it at present, either.
26. Herman Long (25). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts.
27. Bob Johnson (26). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
28. Dom Dimaggio (27). % = 1.00. Likewise
29. Jimmy Ryan (28). % = 1.00. Likewise
30. Dick Redding (29). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Burleigh Grimes.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

31. Bill Monroe .9922
32. Don Newcombe .9886
33. Urban Shocker .9867
34. Burleigh Grimes .9845
35. George Burns .9879
36. Willie Davis .9896
37. Ron Cey .9800
38. Reggie Smith .9791
39. Ken Singleton .9780
40. Johnny Evers .9779
41. Fielder Jones .9778
42. Bruce Sutter .9755
43. Ron Guidry .9735.
44. Jim Kaat .9725.
45. Lave Cross .9709
46. Hugh Duffy .9686
47. Johnny Pesky .9676
48. Ben Taylor .9667
49. Cy Seymour .9665
50. Dick Bartell .9653
51. George Van Haltren .9538
52. Larry Doyle .9614
53. Bobby Veach .9609
54. Buzz Arlett .9602
55. Vada Pinson .9599
56. Jose Cruz .9587.
57. Leroy Matlock .9544
58. Tommy Bond .9511

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Nellie Fox. See #21 above

Pete Browning. % = .8920. Yes, he was an outstanding hitter, but his eye-popping years were all in the weakest major leagues of all time (excepting the UA), he was not an asset on defense, he was not durable within seasons, and his career was short. He is not near my top 50 eligibles. My system sees him as having a case similar to Frank Howard and Rocky Colavito. They have arguments, but they are nevertheless clearly on the outside looking in.

Dick Redding. See #30 above.

Bob Johnson. See #27 above. I’m actually rather pleased to see Johnson in the returning top 10. He was unfairly neglected for many years after he first became eligible, and I was among those who didn’t give him as much support as he merited. I’m not advocating his election, but I don’t see him as a bad choice. If I had a pHOM, which I might get around to creating once we are caught up to the present, I would guess that Johnson would have a got shot at entry during a backlog year between 2007 and 2012.

New Arrivals worthy of note but not within 5% of the in-out line:

Jim Rice .9109. Put up huge raw, offensive numbers, but in context they’re not so impressive. George Foster’s peak had a good deal more substance. Why aren’t the HoF voters running up Foster’s case because of his 52 home runs? I see him as pretty similar in value to Pete Browning.

It is interesting that no one seems to really have taken advantage of the '62 NL expansion besides Tommy Davis; Mays and Frank Robinson had spectacular years but neither had their best season in '62. Probably just randomness.

Someone else alluded above to league strength, which is another way of saying the NL integrated quicker. With fewer dark-skinned guys in the league, the expansion effect would logically be more pronounced in the AL since it, by choice, drew from a smaller pool of talent.

1995 ballot

Schmidt, Evans, and Fingers make my PHOM with Oms, Willis, and Pierce on deck.

1. Mike Schmidt (x, PHOM) – Easy #1, As he is something of a childhood hero (I still have a poster of him up on the inside of the door to my room back at my folk’s place) I hope that he is a unanimous choice. Easily the best 3B ever.

2. Charlie Keller (2, PHOM) – Best peak on the board (outside of McCovey). If you give him WWII and MiL credit he could have up to 7 MVP level seasons (30+ WS) and two solid All-star level seasons. That’s almost a decade of high level performance, only Joe D, Teddy Ballgame, and Stan the Man were better during his era.

3. Hugh Duffy (3, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections. That said, I still think WS overrates Duffy’s peak for other reasons.

4. Dick Redding (4, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

5. Bucky Walters (5, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

6. Jimmy Wynn (7, PHOM) – Very similar to guys like Doby, Averill, and Berger. That’s two HOMers and a guy in my top 30. Very nice peak and a decent prime, not much career, but then again I am not too worried about filler seasons. Underrated historically in large part due to his home park, the Astrodome. I wonder how he would have looked in an era where a lower replacement level meant great players had more great seasons.

7. Darrell Evans (x, PHOM) – I have flip-flopped between he and Wynn all week. Finally, I decided to be safe and place him here. This is one spot below where Ted Simmons ranked for me, to give some context. I believe the WS/WARP evaluation of his fielding to a degree. I think he was underrated and very good, maybe not Mike Schmidt. Still, a good HOM choice.

8. Quincey Trouppe (8, PHOM) – We elected the wrong NeL catcher, it is that simple. Trouppe was a better hitter and was a better player at his best than Biz Mackey was.

9. Elston Howard (9, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

10. Pete Browning (10, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me. Our recent discussion on Charley Jones has made me realize that Browning has many of the same problems Jones does and so he falls a few spots.

11. Gavvy Cravath (11, PHOM) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

12. Dizzy Dean (12, PHOM) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.

13. Rollie Fingers (14, PHOM) – Not 100% sure what to do with him. Out of the relievers we have seen thus far I would have to agree that he is second to Wilhelm. Out of the relievers that we can look at I only prefer Wilhelm and Gossage. If he isn’t elected this year, I could seem him moving wildly as we look at more relievers. Leaps over Oms this week.

14. Alejandro Oms (13) – I see him as similar to, but slightly better than, George Van Haltren. I also prefere Oms to HOMer Willard Brown. He had a low peak but it was a long one that accrued value in the Billy Williams/Al Kaline mold.

15. Vic Willis (15) – First time on my ballot. He made a jump into my top 25 about 30 or 40 years ago and now I have finally decided to vote for him. He has a great DERA and he was a horse for some very good pitching staff

16. Al Rosen (16) – Only the third time he has been on my ballot, he doesn’t get many votes, from me or from any one else. However, he has a great peak and some MiL credit to help with his career. He has consistently been just off my ballot and is very close to the next few players after him. If I went only by his peak he would be higher, but there are other concerns.


16-20 Bresnahan, Doyle, GVH, Fox, Shocker
21-25 Rosen, Roush, Leach, McGraw, C. Jones
26-30 Berger, Elliot, Newcombe, Rizzuto, F. Howard
31-35 John, Kaat, Tiant, Burns, Cepeda
36-40 Singleton, Chance, Munson, Tenace, Veach
41-45 Lundy, H.Wilson, Bancroft, Thomas, Nettles
46-50 Concepcion, Perez, Monroe, Ryan, Stephens

Required Disclosures:
Fox – I haven’t voted for him yet, but his current spot (#19) is about as high as he has been. In the same boat as Pierce when it comes to my PHOM. I guess my biggest concern is his lack of a bat.

Beckley – Not in my top 60 (I stop ranking players at that point) and most likely not in my top 75. I think that HOMers should have spent at least some of their career as one of the best in baseball and Beckley is not even in the top 10 in any season. His best years came not in the 10 team NL but before and after and a team with him as their best player is highly unlikely to win a pennant. Need I continue?

Roush – Good player, but I think not playing full seasons for whatever reason really hurts his peak. Has moved up a little in my re-eval. Better than Carey, Bell, and Minoso, however.

C. Jones – I do not give Jones full credit for his missing years as I believe that he was not some innocent that was done in by the big, bad man. There is a chance that he acted the way he did in order to sever ties with Boston, in which case the league had some reason for acting the way that it did. However, I do give him one full season of credit (which in my system is better than two half seasons)because he wasn’t the only guilty party. Even with credit there are many other questions like league strength, deviations from the mean, and extrapolating 60-80 game seasons into 162 game seasons. All of these cause some downward pressure on Jones best seasons (as well as some upward pressure on some of his worst) and pull him down a bit. I have to say that I can see no way in which he is better than Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, or even Gavvy Cravath. Not the worst choice we will have made, but I think he gets a boost because he was hard done by and that really isn’t fair to other players.

Newbies:

John – Very similar to Kaat in my book. While a peak voter, I have always been a little sympathetic to career pitchers, so John is in my top 35.

Buddy Bell – Among contemporary 3B I like Schmidt, Brett (duh!), Evans, Cey, Nettles, and Bando better. Still, a HOVG player.

Jim Rice – Not a big fan. While it seems to stir up emotions, I agree with James that Roy White was slightly better. However, I agree even more with the bigger point that they were very similar players in terms of overall value and that neither belongs very close to the HOM.

Re No. 95 at et al

1962 NL HOMers (23) - Musial, Spahn, Snider*, Ashburn, Pierce, Mays, Minoso*, Mathews, Banks, Aaron, Koufax, Clemente, Boyer, Drysdale, FRobinson, BGibson, BWilliams, McCovey*, Santo, Marichal, Torre, Stargell*, GPerry*
*- for part-time

1962 AL HOMers (10) - Wynn, Berra, Roberts, Ford, Mantle, Kaline, Wilhelm, Bunning, Killebrew, BRobinson, Yastrzemski

Pitchers are 7-5, NL.
Hitters are 16-5, NL.

Not a hard ballot for me to put together. While he'd never make my PHOM, this ballot did make me see that Buddy Bell was a bit better than I had remembered.

1. Mike Schmidt - doesn't need any explanation

2. Rollie Fingers - I am a friend of the reliever and believe the best of them should be elected. I will have Gossage, Rivera, Hoffman and maybe Quis fairly high.

3. Charley Jones - dominated when he played, would've dominated when he was unfairly blacklisted. Had he not been blacklisted, I have little doubt that we would've elected him a long time ago.

4. Gavy Cravath - I agree that he took advantage of a hitters park, but he used that park better than anyone else at the time could. I congratulate him for knowing how to take advantage of what he had to work with. His team would've been much worse without him and that gives him merit IMO.

5. Edd Roush - I give him credit for 1930. Without it he'd be around 16 - 20 on my ballot.

6. Quincey Trouppe - I'm really glad I took a longer look at him. He wasn't Josh Gibson by any means, but I imagine him as extremely close to Freehan or Simmons.

7. Nellie Fox - good career value, especially for a second baseman.

8. Jim Rice - similar to Cravath, it hurts me to vote for him though. I've never been a personal fan of Rice.

9. Orlando Cepeda - never great, but consistently very good

10. Cecil Travis - I give him a lot of WWII credit

11. Bucky Walters - enough peak for me to offset the lack of career value I typically like to see

12. Tony Oliva - see cepeda

13. Don Newcombe - if you give him credit for years missed, he has good peak AND good career value

14. Vern Stephens - Would anyone like a SS who hits for power and is a perennial MVP threat?

15. Chuck Klein - See Cravath

Bobby Veach
Jack Quinn
Ernie Lombardi
Lefty Gomez
Johnny Pesky
Roger Bresnahan
Charlie Keller - Great peak but not quite enough peak to offset the lack of career value
Rocky Colavito
Dolf Luque
Hack Wilson
Hugh Duffy
Thurman Munson
Jake Beckley
Levi Meyerle
Burleigh Grimes
Carl Mays
George Foster
Larry Doyle
Dizzy Dean
Frank Howard
Pete Browning -
Bob Elliot
Tommy Bridges
Wally Schang
David Orr
Johnny Sain
Bob Johnson
Addie Joss
Fred Dunlap
Lave Cross
Luis Aparicio
Duke Farrell
John McGraw
Harvey Kuenn
Walker Cooper
Stu Miller
Lon Warneke
Norm Cash
Catfish Hunter
Heinie Manush
Mike Marshall
Al Rosen
Gene Tenace
Vic Willis
Deacon McGuire
Herman Long
Urban Shocker
Ed Williamson
Al Oliver
Sam Rice
Steve Garvey
Tony Perez
Mike Tiernan
Ginger Beaumont
Lou Brock
Jim McCormick
Tommy Bond
Dom DiMaggio
George Kell
Mickey Welch
Elston Howard
Pie Traynor
Tommy Henrich
Darrell Evans
Mickey Vernon
Henry Larkin
Ed Konetchy
Reggie Smith
Kiki Cuyler
Ron Cey
Rusty Staub
Ed Yost
Gus Weyhing
Jimmy Ryan
Gil Hodges
Bobby Murcer
Sparky Lyle
Eddie Cicotte
Tommy Leach
Stuffy McInnis
Lefty O'Doul
Charley Root
Jack Daubert
Buddy Lewis
Dave Bancroft
Lloyd Waner
Tommy John
Jack Chesbro
Herb Pennock
Vada Pinson
Wilbur Cooper
Tony Lazzeri
Vida Blue
Ken Singleton
Luis Tiant
Tony Mullane
Roy Thomas
Jim Kaat
Phil Rizzuto
Denny McClain
Claude Passeau
Wilbur Wood
Rabbit Maranville
Dizzy Trout
Buddy Bell
Joe Wood
Sal Bando
Mel Harder
George Van Haltren
Bobby Bonds
Boog Powell
Tom York
Dave Kingman
Mike Cuellar
Jimmy Wynn - I am simply not a fan. I believe he is similar in value to Bonds and Singleton and that is why I have him ranked closely to them both. Bonds is 5 spots higher, Singleton 20 or so.
Deacon Phillippe
Dick Bartell
Freddie Fitzsimmons
Lee May
Wally Berger
Rube Marquard
Virgil Trucks
Graig Nettles
Milt Pappas
Mickey Lolich
Jerry Koosman
Dave McNally
Amos Otis
Roger Maris
Jesse Tannehill
Johnny Vander Meer
Sad Sam Jones
Jack Powell
Bert Campaneris
Dave Concepcion
Nap Rucker
Don Baylor
Jose Cruz
Baby Doll Jacobson
Hal Schumacher
Earl Whitehill
Tug McGraw
Kent Tekulve
Joe Judge
John Hiller

Adam,

Quick question: how is Tony Oliva on your ballot and Bobby Bonds down around 100?

Or Cecil Travis vs. Phil Rizzuto? Seems to me they might get about the same WWII credit and, sure, Travis' big year is not that far below Rizzuto's though Philly did get the MVP award. I mean, surely Travis' big year was not bigger than Rizzuto's. And Rizzuto has more career outside of the one big year + the WWI years. That seems like a sympathy vote to me. Actually, even Johnny Pesky has more going for him than Travis by virtue of pretty much the same logic I applied to Phil.

My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady excellence over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1, #2 and #3 were elected. New exhibits for Leach and Staub. Thirdbasemen rule in 1995 as Schmidt, Evans and Bell come on; John and Rice also go in the pot. The class of 1996 has no shoo-ins, with Hernandez, Quisenberry, Reuschel and Lynn heading the newbies. The HoM shifts to the right(fielders) in 1997, when Dwight Evans and Dave Parker grace the ballot. A strong class in 1998 with shoo-ins Carter and Blyleven, as well as Stieb and Randolph. Then the super class of 1999.

1) Mike Schmidt – Inner circle HoMer.

2) Tony Perez (4,5,4) – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43.

3) Darrell Evans – A match for Perez. Some doubts about his great fielding. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great.

4) George Van Haltren (5,6,5) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned; in six years, 1982 to 1988, he went from the #6 unelected player to #14. We’ve now elected 12 players who were behind him in 1970. Why? Now in his 87th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Two non-HoMers here, Players with 3400 times on base 1871-1909:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

5) Edd Roush (6,7,6) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Played 89.2% of his games in CF. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. The last decade has seen him move into position for eventual election. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

6) Tommy Leach (7,8,7) – Cracked the top twenty in voting in 1988 for the first time since 1949. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

7) Jake Beckley (8,9,8) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top 15 seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era; after the top two years JB gradually blows them all away:
23-21-21-20-19/19-18-18-18-17/17-17-16-16-15 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19/19-18-17-17-14/13-10—8—2—1 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19/19-17-17-17-15/12—9—9—7—7 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16/14-13-13-12-11/11—6—0—0—0 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16/13-12-11-11-10/09—8—2—0—0 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17/12-12-10-10-10/09—9—9—4—2 J. Doyle

8) Charlie Keller (9,10,9) – He’s Dick Allen without the baggage. Kiner’s election should cinch his. Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too. Players with OPS within .090 of CK’s, 1938-51, minimum 4500 PA:
1—1.116 T. Williams
2—1.015 S. Musial
3—.970 J. DiMaggio
4—.961 J. Mize
5—.928 C. Keller
6—.915 M Ott
7—.884 B. Johnson
8—.881 J. Heath
9—868 T. Henrich
10-.850 E. Slaughter
11-.840 R. Cullenbine

9) Burleigh Grimes (10,11,10) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing
5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller

10) Rusty Staub (11,12,11) – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

11) Roger Bresnahan (12,13,12) – A couple more voters now (11) have some regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14, 3100+ PA:
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

12) Jimmy Ryan (13,14,13) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

13) Quincy Trouppe (14,15,14) – Sixth (and final?) time on ballot. Recent discussion shows me he’s the most deserving NeL candidate out there, all the signs are positive. He may very well be the best catcher candidate as well.

14) Graig Nettles (15,ne,ne) – Another looonggg career 1970’s star. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

15) Rollie Fingers (--,--,--) – Returns after three years off-ballot. Definitely a bubble candidate. It all depends on what angle you view him from. One of four pitchers with 1500 relief IP, there may never be another. OK, so maybe he’s the Grimes of RP’s.

Top tenners off ballot:

Fox has been on my ballot and may be again. Weaker league weighs him down a little.

Wynn is a bit short on career, but definitely on my radar. Would be on if he’d played more center field.

If we elect Browning it will be our biggest mistake. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era

Tommy John – A career lover’s bracket-buster. The Sam Rice of pitchers.

Buddy Bell – WARP3 loves him, win shares hates him.

1995 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election. Unless I get an unforeseen wealth of free time to update my spreadsheet, I am going to continue to vote based on the data I have currently collected.

1) Mike Schmidt
The painfully obvious choice for #1 this year. I’ve got him as the #1 3rd baseman and #19 position player of all time (through 2006 eligibles) between Frank Robinson and Joe DiMaggio.

2) Darrell Evans
Even at number two on this ballot he’s not a real stand-out. Solid career totals in the uberstats (115 WARP3, 363 Win Shares) plus a decent peak.

3) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got a little more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

4) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super (albeit better than Beckley), but 102.7 career is respectable.

5) Quincy Trouppe
Twelfth all-time among catchers (pre- and post-integration), slightly behind Biz Mackey.

6) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

7) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

8) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

9) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

10) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

11) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

12) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

13) Ken Singleton
Funny how a guy who conjures up such a divergent image of a “type” of player when compared to Bobby Bonds can put up such similar overall career and peak value—both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3.

14) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).

15) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.


The Rest of the Top 50
16) Jimmy Ryan—As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part 1).
17) Gavy Cravath—A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.
18) Dizzy Trout
19) Tommy John—I did not expect him to pop up this high on my ballot, but his career value is surprisingly high.
20) Buddy Bell—Another entry to the HoVG. A solid player but, nothing jumps out at me peak-wise to justify a higher ranking.
21) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
22) Sam Rice
23) Nellie Fox—I don’t see a huge difference between Fox and Bill Monroe. He could easily make my ballot in future elections, that is, if the backlog ever clears out before he gets elected...
24) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back.
25) Tommy Leach
26) Rabbit Maranville
27) Norm Cash
28) Jim Kaat
29) Reggie Smith
30) Buzz Arlett
31) Jim Wynn—Decent career and peak numbers, he comes out as something of a ‘tweener in my system. The Toy Cannon is not all that far behind OFs ranked higher, in absolute terms, it’s just a tight ballot.
32) Charlie Keller— Even with his peak and the war credit, it’s just not enough combined to get him on my ballot.
33) Burleigh Grimes
34) Jack Quinn
35) Edd Roush—He gets bonus hold-out credit but it's not enough to make the ballot.
36) Bob Elliot
37) Jose Cruz
38) Harry Hooper
39) Dave Concepcion
40) Ron Cey
41) Vada Pinson
42) Phil Rizzuto
43) Alejandro Oms
44) Hugh Duffy
45) Orlando Cepeda
46) Cesar Cedeno
47) Jim Rice—I don’t see anything here that really makes him stand out amongst the off-ballot glut of OFs.
48) Bus Clarkson
49) Lou Brock
50) Vern Stephens

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Rollie Fingers—Out of my top 100. I may be underrating relievers as a whole, but I modified my rankings to help closers/firemen when I originally had Wilhelm well below most other voters. Those adjustments help Rollie, but currently I can’t see adjusting them more to bring him closer to my ballot. I like Goose Gossage a lot more.
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him falling farther and farther behind the real ballot contenders.