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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Monday, March 05, 20071995 Results: It’s Unanimous for Schmitty; Hall of Merit Likes Evans and Trouppe, Too!In his first year on the ballot, third base legend Mike Schmidt became the 13th candidate elected unanimously by the Hall of Merit. He’s also the first third baseman given that honor. Star slugger and fielder Darrell Evans also was elected in his first year of eligibility with 43% of all possible points. Last but not least, NeL and MeL catching standout Quincy Trouppe finally was inducted with 37% of all possible points. It was his 38th attempt. A record 101 names made their way onto a ballot, eclipsing last year’s record by 6. Rounding out the top-ten were: Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, Nellie Fox, Edd Roush, Pete Browning, Jake Beckley (big jump!) and Rollie Fingers. RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 n/e Mike Schmidt 1296 54 54 2 n/e Darrell Evans 565 38 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 4 3 4 Quincy Trouppe 469 32 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 2 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 6 Charlie Keller 386 26 4 3 5 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 3 1 5 5 Jimmy Wynn 370 31 1 1 2 2 1 2 5 4 2 1 2 1 3 4 6 7 Nellie Fox 348 23 2 4 1 2 1 3 5 2 2 1 7 8 Edd Roush 336 24 2 1 6 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 8 9 Pete Browning 313 19 6 2 2 1 2 1 3 1 1 9 13 Jake Beckley 297 21 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 10 10 Rollie Fingers 292 22 2 1 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 14 Charley Jones 269 16 2 5 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 12 16 Tony Perez 263 19 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 3 13 12 Bob Johnson 257 19 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 5 2 1 14 15 Bucky Walters 253 18 1 1 4 1 2 4 2 1 1 1 15 11 Cannonball Dick Redding 242 17 2 2 3 2 1 3 1 2 1 16 17 Hugh Duffy 236 15 1 3 1 2 4 1 2 1 17 18 Gavvy Cravath 227 19 2 2 2 2 5 2 3 1 18 19 Alejandro Oms 219 18 1 1 2 3 1 2 1 4 3 19 21 Roger Bresnahan 171 12 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 20 20 George Van Haltren 167 12 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 21 22 Tommy Leach 161 13 2 2 1 4 1 2 1 22 23 Dizzy Dean 147 10 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 23 26 Burleigh Grimes 140 11 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 24 27 John McGraw 138 8 1 3 1 1 1 1 25 32 Lou Brock 129 10 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 26 25 Rusty Staub 125 10 1 2 2 2 2 1 27 24 Graig Nettles 124 12 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 28 29 Luis Tiant 119 11 1 1 2 3 4 29 35 Reggie Smith 117 9 1 2 1 3 2 30 31 Norm Cash 116 10 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 31 33 Orlando Cepeda 115 10 2 2 3 1 1 1 32 30 Larry Doyle 115 7 2 1 2 1 1 33 34 Bob Elliott 112 11 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 34 39 Phil Rizzuto 109 8 1 2 1 1 2 1 35 28 Mickey Welch 105 8 1 1 2 1 1 2 36 36 Ken Singleton 103 10 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 37 37 Bobby Bonds 101 9 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 38 40 Vic Willis 99 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 39 41 Dave Concepción 99 7 1 1 1 2 1 1 40 42 Tommy Bridges 95 7 2 1 3 1 41 38 Elston Howard 89 9 1 1 1 2 1 3 42 45 Dave Bancroft 72 8 1 1 1 2 2 1 43 43 Sal Bando 64 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 44 n/e Tommy John 60 5 1 1 1 1 1 45 50 Addie Joss 59 4 1 1 1 1 46 44 Carl Mays 58 5 1 1 2 1 47 48 Ben Taylor 57 4 1 1 1 1 48 46 Pie Traynor 54 4 1 1 1 1 49 52 Bill Monroe 53 5 1 1 1 2 50 49 Vern Stephens 51 5 1 2 2 51 51 Chuck Klein 51 4 1 1 2 52 n/e Buddy Bell 48 6 1 2 1 2 53 67 Frank Howard 47 6 2 1 1 2 54T 47 Ron Cey 47 4 2 1 1 54T 53T Ed Williamson 47 4 1 1 1 1 56 55 Tony Oliva 47 3 1 1 1 57 56T Wally Schang 42 3 1 1 1 58 71 Bus Clarkson 40 4 1 2 1 59 59 Bruce Sutter 39 3 1 1 1 60 64T Ed Cicotte 37 4 1 2 1 61 60 Frank Chance 36 3 1 1 1 62 58 Fred Dunlap 35 2 1 1 63 61T Al Rosen 34 3 1 1 1 64T n/e Jim Rice 33 3 1 1 1 64T 61T Sam Rice 33 3 1 1 1 66 76 Urban Shocker 31 3 1 1 1 67 63 Jim Kaat 31 2 1 1 68 53T Jimmy Ryan 30 3 1 2 69 56T Lefty Gomez 30 2 1 1 70 77 Wilbur Cooper 29 2 1 1 71 68T Ernie Lombardi 28 2 1 1 72T 72T Luis Aparicio 24 2 1 1 72T 66 Thurman Munson 24 2 1 1 72T 68T Dizzy Trout 24 2 1 1 75 78 George J. Burns 23 3 2 1 76T 72T Rabbit Maranville 23 2 1 1 76T 64T Gene Tenace 23 2 1 1 78 70 Luke Easter 23 1 1 79 75 Don Newcombe 20 2 1 1 80 74 Tony Mullane 18 2 1 1 81 n/e Jack Quinn 17 1 1 82 88T Herman Long 16 2 1 1 83T 79 Fielder Jones 15 1 1 83T 80T Tony Lazzeri 15 1 1 85 80T Sam Leever 14 1 1 86 80T Artie Wilson 13 1 1 87 n/e Al Oliver 12 2 2 88T 83 Hack Wilson 11 1 1 88T 84T Dutch Leonard 11 1 1 88T 84T Cecil Travis 11 1 1 91T 86 Kiki Cuyler 9 1 1 91T 88T Virgil Trucks 9 1 1 93T 88T George Kell 8 1 1 93T 88T Leroy Matlock 8 1 1 93T 88T Bobby Veach 8 1 1 93T 87 Mickey Vernon 8 1 1 97T 94T Steve Garvey 7 1 1 97T n/e Toby Harrah 7 1 1 97T 94T Bill Madlock 7 1 1 97T 88T Bill Mazeroski 7 1 1 101 n/e Jose Cruz 6 1 1 Ballots Cast: 54 John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy
Posted: March 05, 2007 at 01:53 PM | 66 comment(s)
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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 06, 2007 at 04:05 AM (#2307382)HOF-not-HOM through 1996
1 Aparicio, Luis
2. Bancroft, Dave
3. Beckley, Jake
4 Bender, Chief
5 Bottomley, Jim
6 Bresnahan, Roger
7 Brock, Lou
8 Chance, Frank
9 Chesbro, Jack
10 Combs, Earle
11 Cuyler, Kiki
12 Dandridge, Ray
13 Day, Leon
14 Dean, Dizzy
15 Duffy, Hugh
16 Evers, Johnny
17 Ferrell, Rick
18 Fingers, Rollie
19 Gomez, Lefty
20 Grimes, Burleigh
21 Hafey, Chick
22 Haines, Jesse
23 Hooper, Harry
24 Hoyt, Waite
25 Hunter, Catfish
26 Jackson, Travis
27 Johnson, Judy
28 Joss, Addie
29 Kell, George
30 Kelly, George
31 Klein, Chuck
32 Lazzeri, Tony
33 Lindstrom, Freddie
34 Lombardi, Ernie
35 Manush, Heinie
36 Maranville, Rabbit
37 Marquard, Rube
38 McCarthy, Tommy
39 McGraw, John
40 Pennock, Herb
41 Rice, Sam
42 Rizzuto, Phil
43 Roush, Edd
44 Schalk, Ray
45 Schoendienst, Red
46 Tinker, Joe
47 Traynor, Pie
48 Waner, Lloyd
49 Welch, Mickey
50 Willis, Vic
51 Wilson, Hack
52 Youngs, Ross
HOM-not-HOF
1 Allen, Dick
2 Barnes, Ross
3 Beckwith, John
4 Bennett, Charlie
5 Boyer, Ken
6 Brown, Ray
7 Brown, Willard
8 Caruthers, Bob
9 Childs, Cupid
10 Dahlen, Bill
11 Davis, George
12 Doby, Larry
13 Evans, Darrell
14 Ferrell, Wes
15 Freehan, Bill
16 Glasscock, Jack
17 Gordon, Joe
18 Gore, George
19 Grant, Frank
20 Grich, Bobby
21 Groh, Heinie
22 Hack, Stan
23 Hill, Pete
24 Hines, Paul
25 Jackson, Joe*
26 Johnson, Home Run
27 Mackey. Biz
28 Magee, Sherry
29 McPhee, Bid
30 McVey, Cal
31 Méndez, José
32 Minoso, Minnie
33 Moore, Dobie
34 Niekro, Phil
35 Pearce, Dickey
36 Pierce, Billy
37 Pike, Lip
38 Richardson, Hardy
39 Rogan, Bullet Joe
40 Rose, Pete*
41 Santo, Ron
42 Santop, Louis
43 Sheckard, Jimmy
44 Simmons, Ted
45 Start, Joe
46 Stearnes, Turkey
47 Stovey, Harry
48 Suttles, Mule
49 Sutton, Don
50 Sutton, Ezra
51 Torre, Joe
52 Trouppe, Quincy
53 Torriente, Cristobal
54 Wells, Willie
55 White, Deacon
56 Williams, Smokey Joe
57 Wilson, Jud
* not eligible for the HOF
So, what are the odds we beat 101 next time? I checked, and I'm not going to help - the highest guys on my list who didn't get a vote are Marvin Williams (45), Spotswood Poles (47), Dick Lundy (53), Jim Fregosi (57) and Wally Berger (59). None of those are going to be rocketing up that far, although I wouldn't be shocked if any of them showed up on somebody else's.
That's what I have in my projections, also.
Mark Shirk: -2
Howie Menckel: -2
Chris Cobb: -3
Rusty Priske: -4
Mike Webber: -4
Trevor P: -4
Andrew Siegel: -4
...
John Murphy: -7
...
OCF: -9
...
dan b: -10
Tiboreau: -10 (medians)
...
Tom D: -14
Al Peterson: -14
KJOK: -14
EricC: -14
Michael Bass: -15
jimd: -16
rico vanian: -19
karmagnus: -19
yest: -20
Schmidt was unanimous. I don't know if I would have expected unanimity on anyone, but he was worth it.
Evans goes in failry quickly, in spite of the lingering doubts over the correct way to interprit his fielding value.
The biggest oddity (at least from my way of thinking) has to be Tommy John.
My system places him neck and neck with Don Sutton. In fact, I have John just ahead of Sutton.
Now, I didn't vote for Sutton and John didn't approach my ballot either. But the electorate found Sutton worthy of induction at the first go round, but Tommy John only featured on 5 ballots, coming in 44th place.
Anyone care to take a stab at the discrepancy?
Fairly quickly? I'd liked to have seen him actually go in quickly, then. By acclaimation?
I have Sutton around #30, John around #80. John is closer to Rick Reuschel than Don Sutton in my little world. ERA+ is pretty much a dead heat but Sutton's got 30 extra WS and 24-22-21-20-20 versus John at 23-19-19-17-15. That's a pretty substantial difference, though the way the last few elections have gone I may be the last guy actually using WS. Without looking it up again, I assume Sutton had more peak IP. If not, let me know.
To me the big oddity (among the newbies) is Buddy Bell getting votes. I mean 301 career WS is nothing in this day and age, and yet he is clearly a career candidate. A 26-25-23 peak is not much of a peak. There's a dozen 3Bs with better peaks and half of those are just as good with the glove. For me it takes quite the timeline to get him ahead of Williamson, Leach, Elliott or McGraw, and I don't know what it takes to get him ahead of Nettles or Da. Evans. I do understand that a career voter might prefer him to Bando and Rosen and Cey (though I don't), but you have to be totally against MLEs to have him anywhere near Bus Clarkson or Johnny Pesky. He's somewhere around the #15 3B for me (counting Clarkson and Pesky as 3Bs for this purpose).
FYI: #49 on your HOM-not-HOF list is recently elected Don Sutton. But he's in the Hall of Fame. Is there another Don Sutton?
Keep up the good work guys. I'm joying lurking in HOM threads.
Redding takes the last top 10 spot, displacing Sisler.... Bresnahan grabs a share of 15th with Mendez; he and Leach both will pass him in '96... Roush one year away from the top 20... Trouppe exits at 16th among 'active' players with 7494... Keller moves up 3 slots, but is running out of time... Same goes for JWynn, who debuts this year in the active top 25.
TOP 25, ALL-TIME
BECKLEY.... 24871
VAN HALTREN 24336.5
DUFFY...... 23900.5
BROWNING... 21488.5
Childs..... 18484
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
Jennings... 16976
WELCH...... 16542
REDDING.... 14132
Sisler..... 13892
CJONES..... 13767
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
Mendez..... 12555
BRESNAHAN.. 12555
TLEACH..... 12533
Thompson... 12349
RYAN....... 12222.5
Bennett.... 11503
ROUSH...... 11258
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
Beckwith.... 9896
OTHERS IN THE TOP 25 ACTIVE
(Cravath 8540, Doyle 8163, Walters 7796, Grimes 7519, Fox 6833, Monroe 6802, Keller 5981, Oms 5930, Schang 5823, BJohnson 5812, Williamson 5700, McGraw 5685, JWynn 4194, Willis 4142)
not quite
Joss 3953, Dean 3692, Elliott 3588
Did I mention the ESP? : )
Seriously, Trouppe's one of the guys that I think our group has really done a good job with. We did a lot research, we did a lot of discussing, and we have been deliberate in his election. I think it reflects well on how we have approached NgL players that Trouppe has been elected and that the process behind that election was full of rich, informative debate that has allowed every voter to make his own interpretation. This especially in light of the fact that he is not a particularly well known candidate and that for many reasons we had to draw from the bank of NgL expertise we've all built up over time to make sense of a career that's only partially covered by the oral tradition.
I've been thinking more about this and I was wondering if we have resources in KC that we're reaching out to on the NgL players. We may not be taking into consideration _enough_ oral tradition. Did anyone read "20 Years Too Soon"?
The younger Quincy only has one "p" in his surname.
Or maybe a whole panel. An overview. Definitely a presentation on NeL selections/methods, especially the MLEs. Maybe something on the 19C. And something on the WWII era and the debate over war credit.
These (latter 3 topics) are things that the mainstream (Bill James, WARP, etc.) don't do or don't do well, and frankly don't make any claims to do well.
HoMers in bold
all HoFers with significant playing careers are included
1936
Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson
1937
Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Cy Young , Connie Mack, John McGraw, George Wright
1938
Pete Alexander
1939
George Sisler , Eddie Collins , Willie Keeler , Lou Gehrig, Cap Anson , Charlie Comiskey , Candy Cummings , Buck Ewing , Charles Radbourn , Al Spalding
1942
Rogers Hornsby
1945
Roger Bresnahan , Dan Brouthers , Fred Clarke , Jimmy Collins , Ed Delahanty , Hugh Duffy , Hughie Jennings , King Kelly , Jim O’Rourke , Wilbert Robinson
1946
Jesse Burkett , Frank Chance , Jack Chesbro , Johnny Evers , , Clark Griffith, , Tommy McCarthy , Joe McGinnity , Eddie Plank , Joe Tinker , Rube Waddell , Ed Walsh
1947
Carl Hubbell , Frankie Frisch , Mickey Cochrane , Lefty Grove
1948
Herb Pennock , Pie Traynor
1949
Charlie Gehringer , Mordecai Brown , Kid Nichols
1951
Mel Ott , Jimmie Foxx
1952
Harry Heilmann , Paul Waner
1953
Al Simmons , Dizzy Dean , Chief Bender , Bobby Wallace , Harry Wright
1954
Rabbit Maranville , Bill Dickey , Bill Terry
1955
Joe DiMaggio , Ted Lyons , Dazzy Vance , Gabby Hartnett , Frank Baker , Ray Schalk
1956
Hank Greenberg , Joe Cronin
1957
Sam Crawford
1959
Zack Wheat
1961
Max Carey , Billy Hamilton
1962
Bob Feller , Jackie Robinson , Bill McKechnie , Edd Roush
1963
John Clarkson , Elmer Flick , Sam Rice , Eppa Rixey
1964
Luke Appling , Red Faber , Burleigh Grimes , Miller Huggins , Tim Keefe , Heinie Manush , Monte Ward
1965
Pud Galvin
1966
Ted Williams , Casey Stengel
1967
Red Ruffing , Lloyd Waner
1968
Joe Medwick , Kiki Cuyler , Goose Goslin
1969
Stan Musial, Roy Campanella , Stan Coveleski , , Waite Hoyt,
1970
Lou Boudreau , Earle Combs , Jesse Haines,
1971
Dave Bancroft , Jake Beckley , Chick Hafey , Harry Hooper , Joe Kelley , Rube Marquard , Satchel Paige
1972
Sandy Koufax , Yogi Berra ,Early Wynn, Lefty Gomez , Ross Youngs , Josh Gibson , Buck Leonard
1973
Warren Spahn , George Kelly , Mickey Welch , Monte Irvin , Roberto Clemente
1974
Mickey Mantle , Whitey Ford , Jim Bottomley , Sam Thompson , Cool Papa Bell
1975
Ralph Kiner , Earl Averill , Bucky Harris , Billy Herman , Judy Johnson
1976
Robin Roberts, Bob Lemon , Roger Connor , Freddy Lindstrom , Oscar Charleston
1977
Ernie Banks ,Amos Rusie , Joe Sewell , Al Lopez , Martin Dihigo , Pop Lloyd
1978
Eddie Mathews, Addie Joss
1979
Willie Mays , Hack Wilson
1980
Al Kaline, Duke Snider, Chuck Klein
1981
Bob Gibson, Johnny Mize , Rube Foster
1982
Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Travis Jackson
1983
Brooks Robinson, Juan Marichal, George Kell
1984
Luis Aparicio, Harmon Killebrew, Don Drysdale, Rick Ferrell , Pee Wee Reese
1985
Hoyt Wilhelm, Lou Brock, Enos Slaughter , Arky Vaughan
1986
Willie McCovey, Bobby Doerr, Ernie Lombardi
1987
Billy Williams, Catfish Hunter, Ray Dandridge
1988
Willie Stargell
1989
Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, Red Schoendienst
1990
Jim Palmer , Joe Morgan
1991
Rod Carew, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins , Tony Lazzeri
1992
Tom Seaver, Rollie Fingers, Hal Newhouser
1993
Reggie Jackson
1994
Steve Carlton, Leo Durocher , Phil Rizzuto
1995
Mike Schmidt, Leon Day , Vic Willis , Richie Ashburn
1996
Jim Bunning, Bill Foster , Ned Hanlon
1997
Phil Niekro, Nellie Fox, Willie Wells
1998
Don Sutton, George Davis , Larry Doby , Joe Rogan
1999
Orlando Cepeda, Joe Williams
2000
Tony Perez, Bid McPhee , Turkey Stearnes
2001
Bill Mazeroski , Hilton Smith
2006
Ray Brown, Willard Brown, Andy Cooper, Biz Mackey, Mule Suttles, Cristobal Torriente, Jud Wilson, Frank Grant, Pete Hill, Jose Mendez Louis Santop, Ben Taylor, Sol White
C - Wally Schang
1B - Frank Chance
2B - Fred Dunlap, Bill Monroe
3B - Ed Williamson, Lave Cross, Pie Traynor
SS - Dick Lundy
LF - Tip O'Neill, Bobby Veach, George J. Burns
CF - Mike Griffin, Jimmy Ryan, Fielder Jones, Spotswood Poles
RF - Mike Tiernan, Harry Hooper, Sam Rice
P - Jim McCormick, Tony Mullane, Vic Willis, Addie Joss, Eddie Cicotte, Urban Shocker, Carl Mays, Tommy Bridges
Ben Taylor, Elston Howard, and now Dave Concepcion have gotten 99 points before. Some of these names haven't been seen for a long time, but I urge everyone to reconsider these people at some point before we are done with this thing. Of course, some of them made a lot of weak ballots, some of them were simply shiny new toys, but others may have inexplicably dropped out of some consideration sets. Check out these guys again!
IIRC, Murphy & Dimino submitted a presentation proposal for Toronto in '05 and got rejected.
Or maybe a whole panel. An overview. Definitely a presentation on NeL selections/methods, especially the MLEs. Maybe something on the 19C. And something on the WWII era and the debate over war credit.
A panel? Can't see that happening. Certainly not to discuss minitua on statistical evaluations for various crops of players when it's held by a bunch of people largely unknown outside the BTF circle. They'll have a panel presentation to gather together four suviving members of the 1969 Pilots and have them talk about the season, or something like that. If you're going for a panel as dry as statistical evaluations of tough to evaluate players, you'd need to have people who have already made a decent reputation for themselves involved in it. And even then I doubt it would be a panel.
Oh.
Shows what I know.
The Pilots? Were they a rock band?
Yeah, fronted by Jim Bouton.
"Troop"?
"True-PAY"?
"Trowp"?
I think Howie said it was that one, Guapo.
I think I dropped the ball there though, and should try again. Howie was going to help me with contacting Torre, but then I never pursued it (or maybe Howie did go ahead and push it through? I can't remember). I know I was sent Bill Freehan's address, but again, I didn't act on it.
I think Snail Mail is the way to go, as opposed to email - maybe that was the mistake with Santo? Not sure. When I get back from Florida, the week of the 19th, I'll start with this again. If I forget, someone please remind me. Any suggestions are welcome.
As for Buddy Bell's WS, AL players in the DH era are going to be severely underrated by WS. In opinion, by as much as 10% on offense. You are basically taking the same # of NL WS that are divided among 8 players and dividing them among 9 in the AL. That's a huge difference.
As I've noted, I think emailing a link here can be a little problematic because of the whimsical screen names, which might create confusion for a first-time visitor (as in, are these guys serious?).
Might be better to put together a letter explaining what the Hall of Merit is (might just be cut and paste, mostly, from several different places) and how and when the inductee was elected. Then the link can be provided secondarily.
I think once a reader was told what was going on, that might be sufficient. And if they are sufficiently interested to go a step further and check out the site, that might work at that point.
Of course, even there we might have whimsical references throughout that player's "page."
As I recall, someone probably Gadfly or KJOK identified Trouppe as the best player not on the preliminary list of candidates for the Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues election.
So, what are the odds we beat 101 next time? I checked, and I'm not going to help - the highest guys on my list who didn't get a vote are Marvin Williams (45), Spotswood Poles (47), Dick Lundy (53), Jim Fregosi (57) and Wally Berger (59). None of those are going to be rocketing up that far, although I wouldn't be shocked if any of them showed up on somebody else's.
Good point. When someone newly appears on a ballot it is likely to be someone highly rated by someone the year before. This suggests another consensus score: who goes furthest down his ranking of also-rans before hitting someone who is not on any ballot?
Berger must be close to a ballot or three.
--
all-time 'votes points' thru 1995 - those still eligible in 1996 election are in CAPS. electees not in caps.
Redding takes the last top 10 spot, displacing Sisler.... Bresnahan grabs a share of 15th with Mendez;
Vaguely I recall a prediction that no one would break Sam Thompson's record (12349 points)
Tommy Bond
Jim Fregosi
George Foster
Bobby Murcer
Wally Berger
Vada Pinson
Sol White
Sparky Lyle
Hilton Smith
Harvey Kuenn
Dom DiMaggio
Heinie Manush
Dick Bartell
Billy Nash
Gil Hodges
Bill Wright
Bob Friend
Willie Davis
Johnny Pesky
Harlond Clift
Red Schoendienst
Buzz Arlett
Bobby Estelella
Spotswood Poles
Larry Jackson
Curt Simmons
On the 1995 ballot, my highest-ranked non-vote-getter was Joe Tinker at #24. He'll be at #22 in 1996.
Bond, Smith and Estalella on rawagman's list above were all me, but not Pesky. Lundy apparently hasn't had a vote in a long time unless I just missed him on the 1995 results list.
Just for fun my top 1 vote getter is Hack Wilson at #24 and my top 2 vote getter is Don Newcombe at #19.
1) Candidates who are not HOMable (that's most of them)
2) Candidates who I could see an argument for (Bond, Fregosi, Murcer, Pesky)
3) Candidates who might be HOMable if we had better information (White, Smith, Wright, Pesky, Arlett, Estalella, Poles)
4) Candidates who are HOMable (Berger)
YMMV.
Tommy Bond ~ 30th
Jim Gilliam ~ 44th
Bobby Avila ~ 44th
Tubby Scales ~ 49th
Hilton Smith ~ 50th
Teddy Ballgame 46-49
Joe D 32-24
Slaughter 37-29
Mize 32-22
Reese 27-26
Feller 30-32* (1941 and 1946; missed 1942 and earned 7 WS in partial 1945)
Pesky 28-34
Rizzuto 25-12
Reiser 28-19
Henrich 19-21
The first group are all HoMers. The second are all not. Yet Pesky's numbers clearly have more resemblance to the first group than the second. His first 5 years in the ML total 130 WS, 26 per year. The full line is 28-x-x-x-34-25-20-23. So how many do you give in place of x-x-x? 31 (average of 28 and 34)? Too much? 22 (average of 0-25-28-34)? No, that's clearly too little. 29 (average of 25-28-34)? Ah, just right. So add 87 and his career goes from 187 to 274 with that 34-28-25 peak. Or maybe you only want to give 25-25-25 or even 23-23-23 because you don't want to create a new peak with MLEs. Even so, add 69 and you get 256 with a 34-28-25 peak.
Pesky career with MLE 256-274 peak 34-29-29 or 34-28-25
Rizutto career with MLE 297* peak 35-26-25 (*MLE WWII credit = average of 4 years)
Reese career with MLE 386* peak 27-26-26
Travis career with MLE 257* peak 34-22-22 or 34-22-20
Pesky .307/.394/.386/106 would be a bit higher with 3 prime years added in
Rizutto .273/.351/.355/93 might be a little higher but these were pre-peak years for sure
Reese .269/.366/.377/98 didn't have a peak such that the 3 missing years would affect things much
Travis .314/.370/.416/109 probably wouldn't change as he was past his peak by 1942
Rizzuto A+ glove
Reese A-
Pesky A-
Travis C
If you're lookin' for a guy who really needs WWII credit to have a chance--and you're looking for the most deserving of such players--and if you're thinkin' Cecil Travis--I really think Pesky is your guy.
However, that said, I probably have Pesky's 1941 AAA season in a reference book somewhere. What I could do is run an MLE for it, then use that MLE, or some portion of it to create the WW2 credit.
So I could do
1941 MLE + 1942 + 1946 + 1947 / 4
Or I could also do a portion of the MLE, like .5*MLE or .75*MLE, whatever.
1941 Boston Red Sox SS Joe Cronin 16-95-.311
and 3B Jim Tabor 16-101-.279
and Pesky was 21 years old at the time
1942 Still the Red Sox saw something in Pesky because they made him their SS at age 22 in 1942 with Cronin still hitting (at least)
Pesky 2-51-.331, 105 R
Cronin 45G, 4-24-.304 and of course still the player-manager (since 1935)
They also sold Jimmie Foxx 30 games into 1942, and replaced C Frankie Pytlak with Bill Conroy. The offense dropped off by about 100 runs, not surprisingly.
The pitching staff was also revamped somewhat--Lefty Grove joining Cronin and Foxx as former Red Sox regulars--though Cronin continued to scatter the starts around widely a la Casey Stengel.
1941 starts--Newsome (Dick) 29 Wagner 215 Harris 22 Grove 21 Dobson 18 E. Johnson 12 Wilson 12
1942 starts--Hughson 30 Wagner 26 Dobson 23 Newsome 23 Judd 19 Terry 11 Butland 10 Chase 10
The ERA was reduced from 4.19 to 3.44, so the margin of runs scored increased a bit.
So the Sox improved from 84-70 and 17 GB to 93-59 and 9 GB. Against .500 the Sox had now finished as follows since Cronin took over: +4, -6 as Cronin was injured, +8, +27, +27, +10, +14, +34. They finished 7th, 4th and 7th during the war, but won the pennant in 1946 with Cronin still at the helm.
Pesky just back from 3 years in the service went 2-56-.335 with 115 runs scored. Cronin for once in his life had a stable rotation: Ferriss and Hughson 35 starts, Harris 309 and Dobson 24, era back down to 3.38, league lead in runs scored at 782.
In 1947 the runs scored dropped by about 60 and the ERA went up about .4 runs and in (for 1948) came Vern Stephens, Billy Goodman and Stan Spence, and pitchers Jack Kramer and Ellis Kinder, not to mention manager Joe McCarthy. Runs scored up almost 200, ERA up another .5, and they're 1 GB after the famous play-off. Pesky of course moved to 3B where he stayed for 2 years--both times hitting .300 with 100 runs scored.
By 1951 the Red Sox' shot was over with, not that anybody knew it at the time. Pesky and Stephens swapped again and Pesky hit .300 but scored only 93 runs. Stephens got hurt and so did Doerr and ther ERA went back over 4.00. In 1952 the wheels fell off and Pesky, Dropo and several others were swapped for George Kell, Hoot Evers, Dizzy Trout and others.
In Detroit Pesky was a utility man in 1952 but in 1953 he got a shot as the regular 2B at age 33, played 73 games there, hit .292 and scored 43 runs. In 1954 he lost his job to Frank Bolling and was traded to Washington where he couldn't beat out Wayne Terwilliger but played 37 games at 2B.
So he washed out a bit early and with 3 prime years lost to WWII his "real" career doesn't look like much. And yet during his prime he was part of something in Boston and would appear to have been a significant cog in the whole thing. He was the Sox' lead-off hitter in the '46 World Series (went 7 for 30 with 2 runs scored).
Great idea...
sunny,
I have no idea what Pesky's case was or is for 1941 but he was probably not being held back unreasonably
this is beside the point. i'd use the MLe for 1941 because it would establish a level of play, not to count it into his actual total. The problem lies in my preference for four surrounding seasons (2 on either side). Well, Pesky has three. MLB seasons that is. His AAA season in 1941, however, offers me more information about his level of play during the War than a big, fat zero. So while not being literally included in my war-adjusted record for Pesky, it could be simply incorporated into the crediting mechanism to establish a more realistic sense of how good he was.
Yeah, I like Diz' idea too. Specifically find some sims for specific players of interest and go from there. No time today however.
Pesky had a great year in 1941 with Louisville in the American Association, where he hit .325 and was named MVP. See the SABR biography.
One thing I don't think we've done well on this project is to come up with commonly agreed upon methods for projecting military credit. We could take a respected standard method, like tangotiger's Marcel, and use it to generate projected records, rather than having each voter come up with his own estimates. The MLEs were a major step toward building consensus on Negro League candidates, but we've not been able to form a similar consensus about military credit.
146 G (of 154)
600 ab
93 r
195 h
48 rbi
25 2b
5 3b
1 hr
45 bb
37 k
16 sb
.325 avg
He played all 146 games at SS.
this is from marshall wright's book on the AA.
I've got him at ~92 RC and 410 outs for a raw 6.06 RC/G.
The louisville colenols, his team, finished 2nd, 87-66. They scored 682 runs, 4.43 per game, below average for the league. They were second to last in HR in the leage. The league scored 4.62 r/g. Wright gives no ER or RA totals, but estimating based on innings and ERAs he gives, the team was probably giving up around 3.70 ER per game. Multiply by 1.10 to be safe, and you can estimate them giving up about 4.07 RA/9. OK, now add the est RA + RS, divided by twice the league's RS/9, then apply a heavy regressive weighting (25% on the season, 75% on the mean), and you get a .98 pf.
OK, so we can run through a very quick WS MLE of Pesky's 1941 season (since that's what I use to determine credit).
6.06 RC/G / .98 = 6.18 pkadj RC/G
6.18 / 4.62 = 1.34 ratio of player to league.
1.34 * 4.50 = 6.03 R/G in neutral league
6.03 * .90 = 5.43 R/G in Major League, neutral setting
5.43 / 4.5 = 1.21 Ratio of player to neutral MLB league.
1.21 * 4.23 = 5.12 Pesky's RC/G in 1941 AL setting in neutral park.
If he uses the same number of outs as he did in the AA, then 78 RC.
On an average AL team of 1941, he would rack of 15.6 BWS (per my own system of figuring it, not SFWS).
In the field, Pesky was very effective, says WS, 6.02/1000 innings, or ~111 games. Pesky played 146 games in 1941, crediting him at his career rate means 7.9 FWS for 1941.
So 15.6 + 7.9 = 23.5 MLE WS for 1941. Feel free to quibble, of course.
What difference does it make if I use three or four surrounding years?
1941 1942 1946 1947 = credit-------------------------------
0 28 34 25 21.8
23.5 28 34 25 27.6
What's that do? First thing it takes him from 258 to 275 career WS. When I plug the results into my system, Pesky vaults from 7 pts to 15 pts. That's a lot but instead of putting him with Rizzuto, it pushes him into the territory of Maury Wills, Travis Jackson, Ed McKean. That's not implausible to me. His most positive comp would be Boudreau, though he's not quite up to boudreau's standard in my system, mostly because I don't give All-Star and MVP level credits for war credit seasons.
I think there are only three other major WW2 candidates who would benefit from this approach:
Sain
Spahn
Kiner.
I don't give P war credit, so I personally don't worry about Sain. In addition Spahn and Kiner are off the board. Kiner also has the complicating aspect of having no MLB service before the war.
In Korea there may be others:
Doc Crandall
Ernie Banks
Ellie Howard
Johnny Antonelli (not sure here)
Whitey Ford
Curt Simmons
Not sure about WW1.
It would be absolutely expect that anyone reading to then take me to task for two things:
1) Not studying the effect on all pitchers who went to war
2) Not differentiating younger and older pitchers.
It's just what I do, and this is an instance where I'm not lobbying anyone else to do likewise.
I meant more. duh. Now that I look at it, the whole thing is riddled with errors. And that's not counting the conceptual errors someone will point out!
Perhaps you can keep the career as long as it currently stands but give them some credit for the higher performance they likely would have had during the missed years.
Well, that's a simple difference of interpretation. I think repetitive stress catches up more quickly with pitchers than age does with hitters. Just look at all the pitchers who flame out nowadays in either AA/AAA or MLB. Many more of them every year than of hitters who blow out something and lose their ability to play.
1) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
2) Hernandez--Greatest defensive 1B ever, plus a very good hitter.
3) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. A 94 OPS+ is strong for a grade A second baseman, compare Mazeroski at 84. 1957 and 1959 are great peak seasons (11.8 and 9.8 warp3). 1951-1960 is a high sustained prime. PHoM in 1970.
4) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
5) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders.
6) Keller--There’s no doubt he was one of the great hitters when healthy, 152 career OPS+ is #28 all time. An MVP type season every year from 1940-46 when not at war. That’s enough prime for me, even without longevity. PHoM 1985.
7) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2.
8) Perez--Interesting, most people like his career, but wait a minute…he was playing third base from 1967-1971…there’s a peak there.
9) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
10) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
11) Cey--I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch.
12) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.
13) Jimmy Wynn--PHoM 1987. In 1965 had a MVP type season completely obscured by the Astrodome and era. Best years were not consecutive but impressive: 11.0, 10.3, 9.8, 9.5, 9.0, 8.1, 7.4 by warp3.
14) Buddy Bell--The number of other 3b candidates should not be held against him. Compare him to the average starting 3b of the era and clearly he was a superior player. Compare Bell’s 108 OPS+ to say Ray Knight (99), Phil Garner (99), Enos Cabell (93)—none of whom were good fielders at 3rd. It’s a tough position. Apparently I’m doomed to end this exercise with 10 third baseman on my ballot.
15) Munson--PHoM 1991. I like Munson more than Freehan because of the peak. 1970, 73 and 75-77 were big seasons for a catcher.
16) Fingers--ERA+ not impressive, but by other measures better.
Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much. Not in my top 100.
Roush – #71 with no extra credit. It would take a lot of extra credit to get him on ballot.
Beckley-#58. Lots of career with no peak.
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