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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, April 09, 2007

1997 Ballot (Elect Three)

Our 100th election! Yahoo!

Prominent new candidates: Dwight Evans, Dave Parker , Ken Griffey Sr. and Gary Templeton.

Top-ten returnees: Edd Roush, Nellie Fox, Jake Beckley, Pete Browning, Rollie Fingers, Tony Perez and Cannonball Dick Redding.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 09, 2007 at 01:44 PM | 149 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. rawagman Posted: April 16, 2007 at 10:53 AM (#2335962)
Last day voters bump.
   102. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 16, 2007 at 01:17 PM (#2336002)
Only 33 ballots tallied up so far.

Still missing ballots from: Andrew Siegel, Jim Sp, Jeff M, EricC, James Newburg, Don F, DavidFoss, Dan G, mulder and scully, Trevor P., Chris Cobb, Andrew M, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Tiboreau, Max Parkinson, KJOK, rico varian, jwinfrey, Tom D, Michael Bass, Carl Goetz, NeverJustaGame, Dan Rosenheck and dzop.

Remember: the election ends at 8 PM EDT. Since it's a backlog election, no ballots will be counted after that point.

Results will be posted at 10 PM EDT.
   103. . . . . . . Posted: April 16, 2007 at 03:59 PM (#2336172)
1. Dizzy Dean- All-time great pitching peak. Bumped him up this year to put the two best remaining backlog peaksters in the spots they deserved. The 1930's NL was a historic low for great SP.

2. David Concepción-A great turf SS, at a time when it was a brutal position.

3. John McGraw-Astonishing peak, Dan R's STDEV work brings out how extraordinary McGraw was.

4. Reggie Smith-Dan's work convinces me of his merit. Not as peaky as I'd like, but clearly more valuble than any player that follows (and maybe even some before...)

5. Phil Rizzuto- Whoops, we've been missing him. War + positional credit render him a serious candidate.

6. Ron Cey
7. Graig Nettles- Two underrated 70's 3B's. Better than Boyer, fer sure.

8. Dave Bancroft-Dan sold me. Better than the established baseline for SS in the HOM.

9. Edd Roush- The $ added system has him slightly below the in/out line, but I like the peak and the all-around play.

10. Pete Browning- Would be the worst HoM outfielder in everything but hitting. But he was probably that good a hitter. League quality dings him, drunkeness dings him.

11. Lefty Gomez- I decided to add a pitcher to my ballot; I like Gomeza little better than Cicotte, and much better than Tiant, who I think produced mediocre numbers (for an HoMer) in highly favorable conditions.

12. Roger Breshnahan- Weird case, but he looks much better judged in the context of his peers...

13. Charley Jones- Slim pickin's at the bottom of the ballot.

14. Elston Howard- My ballot slants strongly Yankee; coincidence that I'm a Yankee fan? Either way, this is another guy who's not getting proper credit from the electorate... how many catchers peak in their 30's without external influences that hinder their development? If only Howard were white...

15. Rollie Fingers- I'm inclined to believe that if the baseball world valued a player highly, then the default assumption should be that the player was very valuble until it can be conclusively shown that he's not. IMO, the case against Fingers hasn't reached that level of persuasion.
   104. . . . . . . Posted: April 16, 2007 at 04:09 PM (#2336179)
Required Disclosures:
Nellie Fox- Not near the ballot. Don't vote for him just because he's a MIF. If you look on the ballot, those who vote for Fox tend to have voting criteria that are not designed to find value; Fox supporters tend to love Black Ink+ Grey Ink, the HOF Monitor, and other generally useless stats. If you quantitatively assess Fox's value, he comes FAR short of meeting any reasonable HOM standard. I beseech Fox supporters to at least reconsider how good he was, outside from the bullshit stats.

Jake Beckley-No peak, no love. I wouldn't flip a #### if he was elected, unlike Fox, because he's not manifestly unqualified (unlike Fox), and he actually is, in many ways, a unique and wonderful player (unlike Fox), but he's not my cup of tea (and neither is Fox).

Tony Perez -Substantially better than Nellie Fox. I guess I have him a smidge above Beckley because of some stud years at the start, but the long years of mediocrity are of little value in my POV.

Cannonball Dick Redding-No evidence to suggest that he's better than a host of borderline MLB candidates.
   105. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 16, 2007 at 04:32 PM (#2336212)
Dave, Keller was elected--you can remove the reference to him from your Dean explanation.
   106. sunnyday2 Posted: April 16, 2007 at 04:45 PM (#2336234)
>Nellie Fox...those who vote for Fox tend to have voting criteria that are not designed to find value; Fox supporters tend to love Black Ink+ Grey Ink, the HOF Monitor, and other generally useless stats.

This is BS.

No different than if I condescended to comment on Davey Concepcion's supporters, who tend to... (fill in the blank), oh, and whose ballots are top heavy with players from their favorite team.

Give it a rest.
   107. andrew siegel Posted: April 16, 2007 at 04:49 PM (#2336235)
I've spent a lot of time on this ballot--in particular on Edd Roush, Dwight Evans, and Bus Clarkson. My opinions on them (and most others) are still malleable but the clock says it is time to vote. Here goes nothing:

(1) Roush (3rd)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except the third basemen. A star in his own time--a decent fielding CF always near the league lead in OPS. While his record is superficially similar to Van Haltren, his performances produced leaderboard offense while GVH did not, plus there were not a bunch of almost-as-good guys like Ryan, Griffin, etc. clipping at his heels. I took seriously all the challenges to him, but in the end see him as someone who hit like Reggie Smith or Bob Johnson and played solid CF. On a tight ballot that is enough for the top spot.

(2) Bridges (4th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. I have him with 8 truly excellent seasons--no one outside the HoM has more. I never thought he'd get this high on the ballot, but I see no reason to jump him just b/c/ he's now in an elect-me spot.

(3) Oms (5th)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up. Moved way up as others slide down the ballot. His case has no holes.

(4) Cash (6th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot. Dan's study costs him a few points based on the ease of dominance in the 1960s AL, but others droped too. A lot like Hernandez, only in a substantially weaker league.

(5) Reggie Smith (7th)--Very similar on all dimensions to Cash and Wynn; similar offensively to Roush and Johnson. A bit more consistent than Wynn.

6) Leach (10th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. A lot like Darrell Evans, only with contemporary reports that match his stellar defensive numbers.

(7) Bob Johnson (9th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no major knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position. Since his era and position are already well-represented and he doesn't have a great peak, he losses the most with Dan's numbers, but I still find him worthy.

(8) Elliot (11th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer. Nettles, Bell, Bando, and Cey are also similar, but the glut of 3B in the 1970's suggests that something was different then than when Elliot (and perhaps Boyer) were playing.

(9) Jack Beckley (13th)--Like Rusty Staub or Tony Perez, only with greater positional dominance. A truly borderline HoMer, but a deserving one.

(10) Cravath (12th)--I've got no problem giving minor league credit and that brings him on ballot. Looking at the total package he offered, however, my personal jury is still out. A great hitter, but so were Jones, Browning, Fournier, Tiernan, Frank Howard, etc. He feels like one of those. Career length comparison to those others gets him on the ballot, but it is tenuous.

(11) Urban Shocker (14th)--Joe makes his case well. He didn't pitch a ton of innings or a ton of years but--when you combine durability and quality and adjust for defense--he was one of the best handful of pitchers in the game for a decade. A lot like Tommy Bridges or Dave Stieb.

(12) Ben Taylor (unranked/50ish)--I missed the boat on him. I had him comped to Konetchy and, therefore, outside the top 50. But (1) I had Konetchy too low and (2) his offense was one rung better than Ed's. As a result, he is much closer to Hernandez or Cash. Might deserve to tank higher.

(13) Rollie Fingers (unranked/16th)--When you make adjustments for leverage and postseason performance he is right in the mix with Shocker.

(14) Frank Chance (unranked/18th)--In the scrum for the last two spots, I gave the edge to two guys who were the leading position player on all-time great teams.

(15) Hugh Duffy (unranked/21st)--See above. Welcome back.

Nellie Fox is an ok candidate; I just prefer my middle infielders hit a bit more. I have him 41st.

When you adjust Browning for league quality, you get a guy with a mid 140's OPS+ and roughly 9-plus years of playing time with limited defensive value. I have him somewhere around 50th.

Tony Perez was on the last ballot, but I think I had him a few spots too high. He's in the top 20.

Dick Redding is in the category of Negroe Leaguers whose numbers don't back up their reputations. He doesn't crack my top 50.

Dwight Evans's candidacy turns on the question of what level of play starts earning Hall of Merit chits. His late prime was very good, but by itself not enough for election. I think his career numbers are inflated b/c/ he gets too much credit for being a slightly better than average regular throughout the 1970s. He's really close to the ballot (as in 16th-25th), but for now I'll pass.

Dave Parker had a great five-year run. The rest of his career essentially counts zero. And the five years weren't THAT great. He's in the second 50 somewhere.

I gave the Bus Clarkson thread a long read and am not buying it. The guy has a clearly established offensive level that makes him a good player, nothing more. But I'm supposed to belive that he put up a much superior offensive peak in his mid 30's playing in the Texas League. I think it is far more likely that our translations are off than that he had the Luis Gonzalez career path.
   108. rawagman Posted: April 16, 2007 at 04:54 PM (#2336238)
second sunnyday's comment. One of the greatest things about this project was that it seemed that everyone here made their best efforts to be civil and to put forth their POV in an erudite and civil fashion.
'zop - did you fill out your ballot from the bleachers? YOu don't want to vote for Fox, or Beckley, or whatever - don't vote. If you want to convince others not to vote or him, go ahead. You won't get very far with the "He sucks" answer. It's pretty lame.
   109. Jim Sp Posted: April 16, 2007 at 04:56 PM (#2336240)
1) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
2) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
3) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders. PHoM 1994.
4) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. A 94 OPS+ is strong for a grade A second baseman, compare Mazeroski at 84. 1957 and 1959 are great peak seasons (11.8 and 9.8 warp3). 1951-1960 is a high sustained prime. PHoM in 1970. Best 2B between Jackie Robinson and Joe Morgan.
5) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2. PHoM 1995.
6) Perez--Interesting, most people like his career, but wait a minute…he was playing third base from 1967-1971…there’s a peak there. PHoM 1997.
7) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
8) Dwight Evans-PHoM 1997.
9) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
10) Cey--I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch. I assume Cey and Elliott’s lack of support is a bad omen for Nettles, Buddy Bell, and Ventura. PHoM 1997.
11) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.
12) Buddy Bell--The number of other 3b candidates should not be held against him. Compare him to the average starting 3b of the era and clearly he was a superior player. Compare Bell’s 108 OPS+ to say Ray Knight (99), Phil Garner (99), Enos Cabell (93)—none of whom were good fielders at 3rd. It’s a tough position. Apparently I’m doomed to end this exercise with 10 third baseman on my ballot.
13) Munson--PHoM 1991. I like Munson more than Freehan because of the peak. 1970, 73 and 75-77 were big seasons for a catcher.
14) Fingers--ERA+ not impressive, but by other measures better.
15) Dick Redding--PHoM 1985.

Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much. Not in my top 100.
Roush – #71 with no extra credit.
Beckley-#58. Lots of career with no peak.
Parker #63.
   110. rawagman Posted: April 16, 2007 at 04:56 PM (#2336242)
YOu don't want to vote for Fox, or Beckley, or whatever - don't vote
don't vote for him should have been there.
   111. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 16, 2007 at 04:59 PM (#2336245)
You won't get very far with the "He sucks" answer. It's pretty lame.

It's also self-defeating, since no one is going to adjust their ballot based on that type of commentary.
   112. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 16, 2007 at 05:04 PM (#2336250)
sunnyday2, what's your problem with Concepción supporters, eh? :)

I do find the support for Fox, a second baseman, over all-time great defensive shortstops with similar OPS+ like Concepción, Rizzuto, and Bancroft entirely inscrutable--given equal bats, the preference has to go to the player whose defensive value is overwhelmingly superior.
   113. sunnyday2 Posted: April 16, 2007 at 05:17 PM (#2336266)
I'm great with comments about the relative merits of Fox and Concepcion, though we've heard them all before, over and over and over again. I'm not as great with comments about the relative merits (or dementia) of Fox supporters.
   114. rico vanian Posted: April 16, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2336270)
1) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
2) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
3) Burleigh Grimes –5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
4) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
5) Luis Aparicio –nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
6) Rollie Fingers – The first of the great modern relievers.
7) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
8) Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
9) Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
10) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
11) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller got more votes than him.
12) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
13) Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
14) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits
15) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.

16) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
17) Dave Parker – Drugs are bad, mmkay?
18) Dwight Evans- Growing up in NY, he was the only Red Sox I didn’t despise. Awesome arm.
19) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
20) Edd Roush – I like Rice better.
21) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
22) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
23) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
24) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
25) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
26) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
27) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
28) Tommy John &
29) Jim Kaat - Longevity certainly, Greatness no.
30) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
31) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
32) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
33) Vida Blue – What might have been…
34) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
35) Don Baylor &
36) Reggie Smith The Hall of very good beckons
37) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
38) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.
39) Cecil Cooper – He had a heckuva peak. As a Yankees fan, I absolutely hated seeing him come up. As scary to any Yankees fan in the early 80’s as David Ortiz is now.
   115. TomH Posted: April 16, 2007 at 05:24 PM (#2336275)
given equal bats
this qualifier is what makes the above conclusion debatable
player ......BRAR (unadjusted)
NFox............ 331
DBancroft..... 321
DConcepcion 274
PRizzuto....... 239

adjust as you will; Concepcion longer sched, war credit for Phil, nonintegrated vs integrated league; Fox was the best bat of these 4. Not by a huge amount, but the best.

Nellie is just off my ballot, but it's not like it's foolish to vote for him. Twelve all-star appearances may not be sabermetrically the best justification, but I wouldn't postulate that we should ignore such items.
   116. . . . . . . Posted: April 16, 2007 at 05:39 PM (#2336287)
second sunnyday's comment. One of the greatest things about this project was that it seemed that everyone here made their best efforts to be civil and to put forth their POV in an erudite and civil fashion.

I think this is one of the weaknesses of the project. I understand why the decision was made to honor every ballot, regardless of the methods used to divine it's order; deciding on the "merits" of all the different technique's would be a byzantine task, and frankly, its a good thing to have people approach the problem of "Merit" from a variety of approaches.

However, the downside of the "genteel" tone is that it's allowed some really stupid stuff through, stuff that shouldn't be accorded the respect that it's given.

You can't on the one hand say you're rewarding "value", then strongly weight statistics that have only a indirect correlation to value (things like Black Ink, rank within position, All-Star appearances, etc..). There is an undeniable tendancy for Fox supporters to use non-value metrics in their rankings; this makes sense, because Fox looks great in those stats even though he's not an HoM caliber player. Fox is sort of a tricky case; when you scan the candidates with a low-pass filter, he looks better than originally thought, because he's a MIF and a good glove and those things tend to be underrated. It's only when you bring to bear the high-resolution analysis that his suckitude becomes apparent; you have to distinguish 2B from SS, understand that being the best at your position at a given time only provides limited information about your value, understand that OBP-heaviness makes OPS more valuble, but only on the margins.

I guess Win Shares makes Fox look great, and I have no problem with someone using Win Share as part of their case as long as they're not just "black-boxing" the stats; at least with Dan R's WARP, I know what went into the stew so I can feel comfortable correctly interpreting the results. If you can't tell me why Win Shares rates Fox highly, how can you use that to assess his value?

I also freely admit to submitted a slap-dash ballot this week; I had both a wedding and a funeral to attend this weekend, and I'd hoped to have Dan's revised WARP #'s before I needed to submit a ballot, but work beckoned and I had to get it out there before my boss throttled me. But I stand by the substance of my Fox critiques, in their entirety, and I challenge a supporter to disprove any of them.
   117. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 16, 2007 at 05:42 PM (#2336292)
Yeah, I mean, three whopping years of war credit for Rizzuto; he averaged about 25 BRAR a season, so he's right up there at 314, while Bancroft should get another 4 or 5 for the shortened 1918 and 19 seasons. 331 for Fox with 77 FRAA, 326 for Bancroft with 109 FRAA, 314 for Rizzuto with probably 140-150 FRAA including war credit. The BRAR figures are all well within the margin of error, hence my assertion that they were equal hitters. The FRAA clearly favor Rizzuto and Bancroft. So even if they were second basemen, Rizzuto and Bancroft would be superior candidates to Fox. Then you factor in that they were shortstops, and it's no comparison.

Concepción, my favorite, is a bit behind on these BP metrics, although I'm not sure if that BRAR figure includes his basestealing. I like him the best because of how tough his era was to dominate in general and for infielders in particular.
   118. Esteban Rivera Posted: April 16, 2007 at 05:47 PM (#2336300)
1997 Ballot:

1. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

2. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

3. Edd Roush – Includes considerations for hold out credit.

4. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

5. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

6. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

7. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

8. Rollie Fingers – Given some post-season credit. His career taken all together is around the bubble.

9. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good.

10. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

11. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

12. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

13. Vic Willis –Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

14. Bob Elliott – The post someone made about holding his outfield time against him was true in my case. Not as much an outfielder as I had previously thought.

15. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

Not on ballot:

Cannonball Dick Redding - He was tgreat for some years and was not great in his thirties. The enigma of how good was he and for how long before the known drop-off keeps him off my ballot.
   119. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 16, 2007 at 05:57 PM (#2336305)
However, the downside of the "genteel" tone is that it's allowed some really stupid stuff through, stuff that shouldn't be accorded the respect that it's given.

Look, I don't have Fox on my ballot myself, but it's not like we're talking about Manny Trillo here. Many people from both sides of the statistical spectrum think he's a worthy HOFer, as well as a potential HoMer. I think that should be respected.

If you want to state or infer here that people are stupid for placing him on their ballots, do you honestly think people are going to react to that positively? Would you if someone trashed your ballot in the same way?

If this process were so easy, we wouldn't be having this discussion right now. Everyone would be submitting the same exact ballot for every election. But it isn't easy since there are multiple areas of analysis that have to be balanced, not to mention different interpretations of the numbers.
   120. Mark Donelson Posted: April 16, 2007 at 06:06 PM (#2336320)
However, the downside of the "genteel" tone is that it's allowed some really stupid stuff through, stuff that shouldn't be accorded the respect that it's given.

It is actually possible to question stuff you consider "really stupid" without losing a "genteel" tone, you know. Chris Cobb, for one, does it all the time.

I for one am very glad you and DanR brought up the Fox stuff, because you made me take another look at why I had him so high (which turned out to be a slow caving in to peer pressure, I think--I'm still not entirely sure). But I also think comments like the one of yours that Marc objected to above will, if anything, make most Fox supporters dig in--precisely because they resent your tone.

I suppose we should take this over to the discussion thread, if it's worth pursuing further at all.
   121. DL from MN Posted: April 16, 2007 at 06:52 PM (#2336360)
> 5) Luis Aparicio

We're arguing Dave Bancroft, Dick Lundy, Phil Rizzuto and Dave Concepcion and you went with Aparicio? I do like seeing Pie Traynor near Nellie Fox, they seem like similar players.
   122. sunnyday2 Posted: April 16, 2007 at 07:03 PM (#2336376)
I don't think the problem is that the comments will make Fox supporters "dig in," in part because I don't agree that it will make them dig in and in part because if they do, it's not a problem. IOW, smart people have already decided how they feel about Nellie Fox, I don't think this is going to move 'em one way or the other.

The problem is it's obnoxious. I mean, I could just as well say that, no, you're wrong. The real problem with this project is we occasionally elect players that EYE don't support. Everyone of us could say that, but until now I don't think anybody has.
   123. DanG Posted: April 16, 2007 at 07:19 PM (#2336388)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady excellence over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #2 and #7 were elected. The HoM shifts to the right(fielders) in 1997, when Dwight Evans and Dave Parker grace the ballot. A strong class in 1998 with shoo-ins Carter and Blyleven, as well as Stieb and Randolph. Then the super class of 1999: Brett-Yount-Fisk-Ryan-Murphy-Tanana. The big name in 2000 is Goose.

1) Tony Perez (1,2,4) – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great.

2) Dwight Evans – Give him the adjustments for the DH and his career year 1981 and he’s right up with Perez.

3) George Van Haltren (3,4,5) – We’ve now elected 14 players who were behind him in 1970. Huh? Were we so wrong about him for 50+ elections? In seven years, 1982 to 1989, he went from the #6 unelected player to #12. Now in his 89th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Two non-HoMers here, Players with 3400 times on base 1871-1909:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

4) Edd Roush (4,5,6) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Played 89.2% of his games in CF. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. The last decade has seen him move into position for eventual election. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

5) Tommy Leach (5,6,7) – Finish in the top twenty for the second time since 1949, his candidacy’s “not dead yet”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

6) Jake Beckley (6,7,8) - We’ve now elected 8 players who were behind him in 1977. In 31 HoM elections JB is the leading unelected player. He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top 15 seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era; after the top two years JB gradually blows them all away:
23-21-21-20-19/19-18-18-18-17/17-17-16-16-15 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19/19-18-17-17-14/13-10—8—2—1 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19/19-17-17-17-15/12—9—9—7—7 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16/14-13-13-12-11/11—6—0—0—0 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16/13-12-11-11-10/09—8—2—0—0 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17/12-12-10-10-10/09—9—9—4—2 J. Doyle

7) Burleigh Grimes (8,9,10) – Comparable to E. Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller

8) Rusty Staub (9,10,11) – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

9) Roger Bresnahan (10,11,12) – A couple more voters now (12) have some regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14, 3100+ PA:
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

10) Jimmy Ryan (11,12,13) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

11) Graig Nettles (12,14,15) – Another looonggg career 1970’s star. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

12) Rollie Fingers (13,15,--) – Definitely a bubble candidate. It all depends on what angle you view him from. One of four pitchers with 1500 relief IP, there may never be another. OK, so maybe he’s the Grimes of RP’s.

13) Rabbit Maranville (14,--,--) – Pulling a couple of my old Lost Causes out of the backlog. Back last year after three years off. Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 134.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.0 (high of 8.0). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 105.5, easily in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

14) Wally Schang (15,--,--) – Back last year after four years off. There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan, so he’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

15) Bucky Walters – First time on ballot. The old question, Who do you see as a Hall of Meritor, is often the tie-breaker at this late point in the project. He’s Wes Ferrell lite.

Top tenners off ballot:

Fox has been on my ballot and may be again. Weaker league causes him to be overrated by win shares. Win shares also overrates him due to: 1) being a #2 hitter, giving him a slight advantage in playing time; 2) playing on good teams; 3) extreme in-season durability.

If we elect Browning it will be our biggest mistake. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era.

Redding is a good candidate if you put total faith in the translations showing a stratospheric peak.
   124. mulder & scully Posted: April 16, 2007 at 07:28 PM (#2336391)
Used to be Kelly in SD

1997 Ballot - I'm at work so new comments will be short and lots of copying and pasting.

To recap my balloting:
I consider prime/peak/per year/ and career and in that order.
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots. I consider place within decade as well.

1. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901): The weight of the evidence.

2. Charley Jones (PHOM 1906): The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders with Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
Top 10 position player in 1876, 1878, 1879, 1883, 1884, 1885. Eleventh in 1877. Pro-rated 10th or 11th after blacklisted in 1880. Blacklisted in 1881 and 1882. Best player in 1884, top 4 in 1878, 1879 and 1885.

3. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958): Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

4. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921): Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not. Top 10 position player in 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887, and 1890. Best in 1882 and 1885. League ranks, 1st, 4th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, and 4th.

5. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919): A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

6. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966): Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. 9th best third baseman if all credit for career is at third, 24th best center fielder if all credit is at CF. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.

7. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979): Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis.

8. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942): Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906.

9. George Burns (PHOM 1938): Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked. Top 10 in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920. Rank in league/majors: 8th/20, 1st/4th, 7th/13th, 9th/17th, 3rd/5th, 3rd/8th, 2nd/4th, 7th/17th. 1921-23 in NL only: 14th, 18th, 15th.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1913-15, 1917-19. Top 3 in majors in 1914, 17, 19.

10. Roush (PHOM 1940): 3 MVP type years, excellent defense. Top 10 in NL in 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1923, 1925, 1926. 4th t/9th t, 5th t/11th t, 1st/2nd, 2nd/5th, 3rd t/8th t, 9th/15th t, 9th t/22nd t.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1917-20, 1923. Top 3 in majors in 1919, 1920.

11. Dwight Evans (PHOM 1997): top 18 (equivalent to top 10 in 8-team years) throughout the 80s. Strong peak years and a great prime. Excellent defense.

12. Don Newcombe (PHOM 199? don't remember): Credit for minor league years and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great. I give MiL credit for 1947, 1948, and 4 starts worth in 1949.
Top 5 starter in league in 1949, 1950, 1951, (Korea 1952, 1953), 1955, 1956, 1959
Rank in league/majors: 4th/9th t (1st t/5th t with MiL credit), 4th/8th, 5th/9th, 2nd/2nd, 1st/2nd, 5th/9th. Also, Korean War Credit for 1952 and 1953 at 22 WS and 23 WS gives 2 more top 4 years. For a total of 6 plus two fifths.

13. Cooper, Wilbur (PHOM 1985): He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.

14. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964): Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) After being close to returning the ballot for years, he finally does.

15. Rollie Fingers: I’m still not sure about him. Without him, the A’s don’t win at least one World Series. He was very durable for a very long time. He didn’t have the peak of a Gossage or a Hiller or a Sutter.
   125. mulder & scully Posted: April 16, 2007 at 07:37 PM (#2336396)
16. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985): Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

17: Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961): Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

18. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1987): I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1906, 1908. Rank in league/majors: 5th/8th, 10th/24th, 7th/11th, 8th/15th. Best catcher in majors in 1905, 1906, 1908. Best centerfielder in majors 1903.

19. Elston Howard: I kept overlooking him. I am giving more of a benefit of the doubt about his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.

20. Jack Fournier: Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career.

21. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

22. Frank Howard: Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with.
Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.

23. Graig Nettles: A great defensive 3rd basemen. Lacks the great years that so many 3rd basemen have in the 60s and 70s: Santo, Bando, Schmidt, Brett, Perez before he moved to 1st. Listed higher than my system says because I believe there is something my system is not catching about him.
Top 15 in league in 1971, 1972 (16th), 1974, 1975 (19th but 1 away from 15th), 1976, 1977, 1978.
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/15th t, 16th t/38th t, 13th t/31st t, 4th/9th, 11th t/20th t, 8th/16th.
Best 3b in league: 2nd in 1971 by 2, 2nd t in 1972 by 2, 1974 3rd by 3, 1975 2nd by 4, 2nd by 5 in 1976, 2nd by 4 in 1977, 2nd by 1 in 1978

24. Luke Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.

25. Herman Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889

26. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. May need to do a recall election...

27. Al Rosen: What if...
Top 10 in league: 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954
Rank in league/majors: 4th t/7th t, 5th t/14th t, 3rd/5th, 1st/1st, 7th/14th.
Best third baseman in AL in 1950, 1952, 1953, 1954. Best in majors in 1950, 1952, 1953.

28. Ken Singleton: Slugging outfielder for Weaver’s Orioles. Career reputation is hindered by playing in a pitcher’s park in an average/slightly lower than average era for hitting.
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980,
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/13th t, 1st t/2nd t, 12th t/24th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 3rd/5th, 7th t/12th t
Top 3 outfielder in league in 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979. In majors in 1975, 1977, 1979.
Could move up.

29. Orlando Cepeda: A little ahead of Cash based on in-season durability. A little short on career, peak, and prime. Very close to ballot, but first base has the toughest standards.
Top 10/12/15 in league (up to 62/62-68/69 - ): 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1967
Rank in league: 9th t/19th t, 6th/8th, 6th/11th t, 7th t/11th t, 7th/7th, 3rd/5th, (11th in 1958)
Best first baseman in NL four times: 1961, 1962, 1963, and 1967. Best LF in 1960.

30. Dan Quisenberry: He was very effective in the early 80s. I understand that he gave up more inherited baserunners than expected, but the innings pitched, lack of walks and lack of homeruns are very impressive to me. He and Stieb were the best AL pitchers of the first half of the 1980s.
   126. . . . . . . Posted: April 16, 2007 at 07:41 PM (#2336401)
Many apologies, I realized that I forgot to include Dewey when transcribing over from my handwritten prelim. New, correct ballot follows.

please disregard my ballot submitted earlier today

1. Dizzy Dean- All-time great pitching peak. Bumped him up this year to put the two best remaining backlog peaksters in the spots they deserved. The 1930's NL was a historic low for great SP.

2. Dewey Evans- Way, way above the in/out line for HoM, not even a borderliner. $-added has him at $100mil-ish, which makes sense given his low stdev environment.

3. David Concepción-A great turf SS, at a time when it was a brutal position.

4. John McGraw-Astonishing peak, Dan R's STDEV work brings out how extraordinary McGraw was.

5. Reggie Smith-Dan's work convinces me of his merit. Not as peaky as I'd like, but clearly more valuble than any player that follows (and maybe even some before...)

6. Phil Rizzuto- Whoops, we've been missing him. War + positional credit render him a serious candidate.

7. Ron Cey
8. Graig Nettles- Two underrated 70's 3B's. Better than Boyer, fer sure.

7. Dave Bancroft-Dan sold me. Better than the established baseline for SS in the HOM.

8. Edd Roush- The $ added system has him slightly below the in/out line, but I like the peak and the all-around play.

9. Pete Browning- Would be the worst HoM outfielder in everything but hitting. But he was probably that good a hitter. League quality dings him, drunkeness dings him.

12. Lefty Gomez- I decided to add a pitcher to my ballot; I like Gomeza little better than Cicotte, and much better than Tiant, who I think produced mediocre numbers (for an HoMer) in highly favorable conditions.

13. Roger Breshnahan- Weird case, but he looks much better judged in the context of his peers...

14. Charley Jones- Slim pickin's at the bottom of the ballot.

15. Elston Howard- My ballot slants strongly Yankee; coincidence that I'm a Yankee fan? Either way, this is another guy who's not getting proper credit from the electorate... how many catchers peak in their 30's without external influences that hinder their development? If only Howard were white...
   127. mulder & scully Posted: April 16, 2007 at 07:43 PM (#2336404)
31. Vern Stephens: Great hitter. More than adequate defense. The AL in the 1940s had the following shortstops: Boudreau, Appling, Rizzuto, Joost, and Pesky. Pretty good grouping.
Top 10 in league in 1944, 1945, 1948, 1949 (11th 1943, 1947, 13th in 1950)
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd, 3rd/9th t, 9th t/14th t, 3rd/6th t.
Best shortstop in league in 1944, 1945. 2nd to HoMer Boudreau in 1943, to Joost in 1949, to Rizzuto in 1950 (by far), 3rd to Boudreau and Joost in 1948. In majors in 1944, 1945.

32. Dave Concepcion:
Top 15 in league in 1974, 1976, 1978, 1979, 1981
Rank in league/majors: 13th t/19th t, 15th t/31st t, 12th t/20th t, 14th t/28th t, 4th/9th t,
Best Shortstop in league in 1974, 1976, 1978, (2nd in 1979 by 1), 1980, 1981.
In majors in 1974, 1976 t, 1978, (2nd in 1979 by 1), 1981.

33. Fred Lynn: If only he could stay healthy. Yes, he took advantage of Fenway, but that was a phenomenal peak. But it was not consecutive and he just didn’t play enough games.

34. Sal Bando: A conservative placement. There are so many good thirdbasemen in this era that I want to be careful. Could move up if I see a good enough argument. His peak is very good, his prime is good but his career is so-so as are his per-year numbers.
Top 10 in league (15 from 69 forward) in 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1978
Rank in league/majors: 3rd/6th t, 3rd t/9th t, 12th t/25th t, 2nd t/6th t, 12th t/24th t, 11th t/28ht t.
Top 3b in league in 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973. In majors in 1969, 1972, 1973.

35. Dave Parker: If only...

36. Dizzy Dean: Great peak. Just nothing else there. Hello, Al Rosen.
Top 5 starters in league in 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/6th, 5th/9th, 1st/1st, 1st/2nd, 2nd/2nd

37. Wally Berger: Not enough career for me. Reevaluated. Excellent peak, 5 other all-star years after I give one year of MLE credit for 1929.
Top 10 in league in 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1936.
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/21st t, 1st/6th, 6th/14th, 1st/2nd t, 3rd/5th t, 10th t/21st t (13th in 1935).
Top 3 OF in league: 1931, 1933, 1934 and NL best CF in 1932 (5th overall). In majors 1931, 1933, 1934.

38. John McGraw: Just not healthy enough. After having looked at the following McGraw gets a move up.
Top 10 (15 from 92-99) in league: 1893, 1894, 1898, 1899
Rank in league/majors: 14th t, 5th t, 5th, 2nd, (16th in 1895 but 4th among non-OF, 17th in 1897 but 6th among non-OF, 11th in 1900 but 2nd among non-OF)
Best in league at position, 3rd base: 1899, 1900. In majors in 1899, 1900.

39. Buddy Bell: Not quite Nettles.

40. Norm Cash: Top 10 in league only 4 times: 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966. Adjusting for additional teams only adds 1971. 2nd/2nd, 10th t/27th t, 10th t/25th t, 6th/13th, 13th w/24 (71).
Best first baseman in AL in 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, and 1971. Best in majors in 1961. Even with the missed games.

41. Bob Elliott: I need to review his candidacy. Reviewed Boyer and I like Elliott better.
Top 10 in league in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950.
Rank in league/majors: 7th t/14th t, 8th t/13th t, 3rd/5th, 4th/8th, 10th t/20th t, 7th t/12th t. (12th in 1942)
Best 3rd baseman in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950. In majors in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948 and virtual ties in 1949, 1950.
Very little difference for me between Bando, McGraw, Elliott, Boyer, Lyons, and Williamson.

42. Nellie Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.
Top 10 in league in 1952, 1954, 1955, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960 (11th in 1951, 1953): .
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/24th t, 8th t/14th t, 5th/14th t, 3rd/6th, 10th t/17th t, 1st t/5th t, 9th t/22nd t,
Best 2b in league in 1955, 1956, 1957, 1959, 1960. In majors in 1955, 1957, 1959, 1960 t.

43. Wally Schang: I see the arguments. 6 times top 10 in OBP, 4 times in SLG and OPS, 5 times in OPS+.
Never in top 10 players in league because of playing time.
Best catcher in league in 1913, 1914, 1919, 1921. In majors in 1914, 1919, 1921.

44. George Scales: I need to rework my basic MLEs after the HoF numbers because his OBP and SLG are now higher than before.

45. Jim Rice: The little differences between him, Singleton, and Bonds/Staub.

46. Jack Stivetts: 4th best pitcher in the 1890s. Trouble was he pitched right as the distance changed and he was worked to death to start his career.
Top 4 (6 in 12 team era) in league: 1890, 1891, 1892, 1894
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/9th (even with a 15% discount), 1st/2nd (no discount) or 4th (20% discount), 1st, 8th in 1893, 6th, 8th in 1896.
   128. . . . . . . Posted: April 16, 2007 at 07:44 PM (#2336406)
Oh, #### it, I cant rush these things. Bancroft-Roush-Browning are 9-10-11 repsectively. Chickenwithoutahead day. Sorry.
   129. mulder & scully Posted: April 16, 2007 at 07:50 PM (#2336410)
47. Bus Clarkson: Jumps 11 spots on the new MLEs. Could move more.

48. George Van Haltren (PHOM 1939): Moved down in comparison with Mike Tiernan. Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.
Top 10 in league (top 15 in 12 team era) in 1890, 1891, 1894, 1895, 1896, 1897, 1898 (11th t in 1889 and 1900)
Rank in league/majors: combination pitcher/outfielder ranked 5th best player with all pitchers ahead of him, 5th/7th t, 11th t, 13th t, 12th, 9th t, 6th t.
Top 3 in outfielders in league(top 5 in 12-team era) in 1898. In majors in 1898.

49. Mike Tiernan: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.
Top 10 (15 from 1892-1899) in league in 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1895, 1896, 1897 .
Rank in league/majors: 7th/9th, 1st t/3rd t, 4th t/8th t, 3rd t/7th t, 13th, 8th, 11th.
Top 3 OF or top 5 in 12-team league: 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1896. Top 3/5 in majors: 1889, 1890, 1891, 1896.

50. Luis Tiant: A lot of pitchers put up great numbers in the 60s and 70s. Tiant doesn’t match them. Hall of Very Good. 3 times a major league all-star is good.
Top 5 starter (61-68) top 6 (69- ) in league: 1968, 1974, 1976.
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd, 2nd/2nd, 5th/5th (7th t in 1967, 7th t in 1972, 9th t in 1973)

51. Sal Maglie: Credit for Mexican League helps

52. Carl Mays: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding, by Chris J’s RSI and Defensive support measures. Too bad he doesn’t have an “average” aging pattern in 1922, 1923, and 1925.
Top 5 starters in league in 1916, 1917, 1918, 1920, 1921.
Rank in league/majors: 5th t/9th t, 4th/5th, 4th/5th t, 3rd t/6th t, 2nd/2nd

53. Monroe, Bill: He impressed the hell out of McGraw

54. Hippo Vaughn: Excellent peak, but not enough career in the majors.
Top 5 starters in league in 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920
Rank in league/majors: 3rd t/7th t, 3rd/8th, 1st/4th, 1st/1st (I don’t count Cicotte’s year), 4th/11th t (plus an 8th in the AL in 1910 and NL in 1915)

55. Thurman Munson: Career wasn’t long enough and peak wasn’t high enough. There were a lot of excellent catcher years/careers in the 1970s: Bench/Fisk/Tenace/Simmons. Munson is definitely Hall of Very Good.
Top 15 in league in 1970, 1973, 1975, 1976.
Rank in league/majors: 12th/25th t, 9th t/22nd t, 12th t/27th t, 12th t/24th t.
Top C in league: 1970, 1973, 1976. In majors: 1976.

56. Gene Tenace:
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1979
Rank in league/majors: 7th t/18th t, 13th t/31st t, 2nd/5th, 10th t/20th t, 14th t/28th t, (19th in 1976, 1978)
Best catcher in league in 1975 (2nd in league in 1977 and 1979). In majors in 1975.
Best first baseman in league in (2nd in 1973).

57. Lon Warneke: A good peak, but not as high as Dean and his career is not long enough.
Top 5 starters in league in 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935
Rank in league/majors: 1st/2nd, 2nd t/2nd t, 3rd/6th, 5th t/9th t (plus a 6th in 1940 and 1941.

58. Urban Shocker: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.
Top 5 starters in league in (1920), 1921, 1922, 1923, 1926
Rank in league/majors: 6th/10th, 3rd/3rd, 2nd/2nd, 2nd t/5th t, 4th/10th t (plus an 8th in 1924, a 9th in 1925

59. Fielder Jones: Excellent defender, 7 Gold Gloves by Win Shares. Quit after 1908 because Comiskey was such an ass with which to deal.
Top 10 in league: 1901, 1902, 1905, 1906, 1907, 1908
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/16th t, 5th t/9th t, 3rd t/7th t, 7th/14th, 8th/13th, 4th t/5th t.
Top 3 in OF in league in 1901, 1902, 1905, 1906, 1908. In majors in 1908.

60. Denny Lyons:
Top 10 in league in 1887, 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893.
Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 9th t/24th t, 6th t/10th t, 2nd/5th t (no reduction) or 16th (with 15% reduction), 8th t/between 16th and 20th, 12th t.
Best 3rd baseman in league in 1887, 1890, 1891. In majors in 1887.

61. Ed Williamson:
Top 10 in league in 1879, 1882, 1884, 1885.
Rank in league/majors: 4th, 8th t/10th t, 9th t/20th t, 9th/16th, (12th in 1881 but 5th among non-OF)
Best 3rd baseman in 1879 (King Kelly is Utility with his 33 g at 3rd, 29 OF, and 21 C), 1882. In majors in 1879, 1882.

62: Bobby Bonds: 4 very good years is not enough, especially considering how many good outfielders there are in the late 60s/early 70s. Very good peak, but many outfielders had better in that era.
Top 10 in league (15 from 69 forward) in 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1977. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/11th t, 4th/8th, 4th/5th t, 14th t/25th t, 5th t/6th t, 11th t/25th t, 14th t/25th t.
Top 3 in OF in league in 1970, 1971, 1973. In majors in 1970, 1971.


Rusty Staub: A great run in his 20s gets him in the conversation. But the injury in 1972 when he was on pace for 30-32 win share season and the loss of power when he turned 29 derailed a HoM career. There are a lot of almost, not quite outfielders in the 1970s.
Top 15 in league in 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1976.
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/14th t, 10th t/15th t, 11th t/18th t, 5th/10th t, 4th/5th t, 15th t/30th t, 13th t/21st t, 5th/12th.
Top 3 outfielder in Lg: 1970, 1971
In majors in 1970 (tied with many), 1971.

Tony Perez: If he kept hitting like he did as a third baseman when he was a first baseman. Not enough peak or prime. Doesn't meet the standards as a first baseman.

Jake Beckley: to reiterate my usual reasons: no peak, very low prime, performed poorly in the one league 90s in general, best years were in 3 or 2 league years, think any extra defensive credit belongs to the Chance/Konetchy generation, played on mediocre teams and was rarely the best on those teams.
   130. DavidFoss Posted: April 16, 2007 at 08:23 PM (#2336435)
Big backlog election this week. Dwight Evans the only newbie to make my ballot. Really digging deep into the backlog for these candidates. I guess that's a testament to how many mistakes the Coop made. I *did* do a re-eval a couple of weeks ago to try and get more expansion-era player on my ballot, but I still have many pre-1920 guys in my top-15. I guess the only explanation I have is that the expansion-era candidates I like get inducted too quickly. :-) I'll continue to monitor the inductees per year charts to see if the expansion era needs more represenation.

1997 Ballot

1. Gavvy Cravath -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
2. John McGraw -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
3. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
4. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play. I don't know why his support hasn't held up.
5. Norm Cash -- Took another look at him. I'm like him better than Keith Hernandez.
6. Roger Bresnahan -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
7. Rollie Fingers -- Best reliever eligible.
8. Bob Elliott -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
9. Mickey Welch -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
10. Frank Chance -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
11. Frank Howard -- Gets a boost from the post-expansion re-eval. This guy could really mash.
12. Charley Jones -- Unfairly blacklisted early hitting star.
13. Dwight Evans -- Not as high on him as many others are. With the longer schedules, 347 WS is not as impressive as it was with shorter schedules. The fielding is great, especially in spacious Fenway RF, but fielding can be overrated for corners.
14. Pete Browning -- Another short-career high peak hitter. These guys used to be just off my ballot, but they've percolated into points positions.
15. Jake Beckley -- I'm not a career voter, but after many, many years, this career candidate percolated up my backlog and into my top fifteen.
16-20. Roush, Lombardi, Rosen, BJohnson, Nettles,
21-25. Leach, Fox, Bando, Cepeda, TJohn,
26-30. Cey, Tiant, TPerez, Singleton, Brock,
31-35. Staub, Walters, Kaat, Parker
   131. jimd Posted: April 16, 2007 at 09:00 PM (#2336475)

One question: ... where do you have Rizzuto?

He's in the 40's.

And a comment: don't Browning's 1882 and Dunlap's 1884 show that great players most certainly can and do take advantage of weaker competition? They absolutely obliterated those leagues, putting up above-.400 EqA's at second base...even if you discount those seasons by half due to league strength, they're *still* excellent peak seasons for any HoM'er.

I agree. However, it has been argued here in the past (in support of Pete Browning and others, particularly Browning in 1882) that league discounts underrate great seasons because of some point of diminishing returns. Color me unconvinced. If you apply that argument to Browning 1882 or to your favorite NeL'er, then it also applies to Dunlap in 1884.



you have Nellie Fox in 18th and in 29th.

My mistake. When reviewing my ballot for required disclosures, I missed Fox in 18th.
He would rate just ahead of Roush without my position adjustment, so I slotted him there, in haste and error.


Paul Wendt

jimd as the best friend of fielding genius

Thank you for the kind word. Some people don't care for the BP fielding ratings. I prefer them to those created by WS, which I have demonstrated are strongly influenced by the team defensive ranking and so do a poor job of isolating the individual's contribution (or lack thereof).
   132. Andrew M Posted: April 16, 2007 at 09:48 PM (#2336514)
1997 Ballot

Sorry for the delay this ballot. Apparently my taxes are due today as well. Who knew?

1. Nellie Fox.
2. Larry Doyle.
Fox was durable (he never had fewer than 600 ABs between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. His 94 OPS+ is OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career. His MVP season was neither undeserved nor a fluke. I’m not convinced he should be first on this ballot, but I do think he should be in the HoM.

Doyle has a career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. Assessments of his fielding vary from average to poor.

3. Edd Roush. There are some peculiar things about Roush’s career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc. At his peak between 1917-1921 he was in the top 4 in OPS+ and playing A-level CF (according to Win Shares—WARP thinks less of his fielding). Plus he played long enough to get over the 100 WARP/300 WS plateau.

4. Tommy Bridges. He’s not really a peak or career candidate. He finished his career with just fewer than 3,000 IP and his top ERA+ season is 147. In his favor, he’s probably missing 360 or so innings from 1944 and 45, and he had six seasons in which his ERA+ was between 140 and 147 (and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL.) And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

5. Bob Johnson. Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. Comparable to Medwick and Averill in the lower tier of HoM OFs.

6. Tony Perez. Separates himself from the pack by having a pretty good glove at 3B for 760 games. Hung around long enough to accumulate almost 11,000 PAs, but his rate numbers would look better had he retired at age 35.

7. Luis Tiant
8. Dick Redding
Both of these guys are perfect pitchers for the prime voter. The best pitcher in the league at their best and decent career length. Bucky Walters is another guy in this category.

9. Dave Bancroft. Similiar skills to Nellie Fox--Great glove, league average hitter, walked a lot. Not as durable as Fox. A Hall of Fame “mistake” that really wasn’t.

10. Tommie Leach. Long career, excellent fielder at both CF and 3B. Hit enough for 3B. As Roger Bresnahan,these multiposition guys are hard to account for.

11. Phil Rizzuto. Reconsidered the importance of shortstop defense for this ballot. Another guy in the Bancroft and Fox category.

12. Tommy John. I’m really surprised by how few votes he got in his first year. Not much of a peak, but he’s got too many innings of above-average to good pitching to ignore. Also, by reputation, an excellent fielder.

13. Bucky Walters. See comments above. Excellent with the hit and in the field for his position.

14. George J. Burns. Rarely missed a game, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. I’ve never been convinced Roush was the better player, to be honest.

15. Roger Bresnahan. A tough player to put in a modern context. 1,000 games behind the plate was obviously much more difficult 100 years ago. Career OBP .57 higher than league average is good for a catcher in any era.

Next 7 (more or less in order)
Dw. Evans
Ken Singleton
Rollie Fingers
Alejandro Oms
Orlando Cepeda or Norm Cash or Jake Beckley
Geo. Van Haltren
Vern Stephens

Required Disclosures:
Jake Beckley. After goodness knows how many ballots, I am warming up to Beckley. The in-out line that separates him from Hernandez, Terry, and Sisler is getting harder for me to see.

Rollie Fingers. I guess like relief pitchers less than most voters, and I’m not sure I would rank Fingers as high as others even among relief pitchers.

Pete Browning. Too many questions/doubts.
   133. Michael Bass Posted: April 16, 2007 at 10:07 PM (#2336531)
I use WARP3 as my primary tool, with mental adjustments to downgrade (not eliminate, but downgrade) the timeline. I prefer gloves with moderate bats to bats with terrible gloves; both Stargell and Killebrew are not in my PHOM, though they're in the queue. I'm peak-oriented, but my system is much more friendly to long career candidates than it once was, when those long careers stand out, or have an extended prime, if not an outstanding peaks.

PHOM this year is Dw. Evans, Nettles and Willie Stargell

1. Fred Dunlap (PHOM 1926) - I'm close to alone on this one. My case for him is simple, he was one of baseball's best players for 6 straight years; I don't believe you'll find anyone who was as highly ranked in baseball as Dunlap was for even 4 or 5 straight years who we have not elected. Win shares underrates him, just as it overrates pitchers from the era. Very good hitter, great fielder from an era when fielding meant more.

2. Bob Elliot (PHOM 1968) - Never understood the lack of love for him. I have always viewed him as very close, just short of Stan Hack. This time around, I liked Hack a lot, so Elliot slots in very highly, as we're real deep into the backlog at this point.

3. Bob Johnson (PHOM 1971) - Maybe the foremost all-prime career. Gets no minor league credit despite his late start (it was investigated at the time, he was just a late bloomer). Like Elliot takes a slight minus from his raw stats for the inflated 44-45 years when they were playing with a bunch of AA guys. Clockwork hitter for 12 of his 13 years.

4. Phil Rizzuto (PHOM 1972) - Scooter is the first pure glove man on my ballot; an outstanding shortstop with an average bat (MVP level the year he was more than an average bat). Add in 3 years of war credit (which came right in the middle of his best years), and you get him to this spot.

5. Rabbit Maranville (PHOM 1976) - Rizzuto for an earlier generation. Longer career (gets nearly a year of war credit), doesn't have the one year peak of Rizzuto, and was a moderately worse hitter. But an amazing fielder forever. I'll be a big Ozzie supporter, and this guy was Ozzie-lite.

6. Dwight Evans (PHOM 1997) - A hair below where Hernandez was on my ballot, but similar player builds. Lot of prime, solid defense, underrated offense. Odd career shape, a completely not notable player through age 28, built his HOM resume from 29-37.

7. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1979) - Had a very nice peak just before the war, and some shoulder seasons before that and during the war.

8. Dick Redding (PHOM 1981) - Had a nice career length, and the numbers indicate a strong peak as well. Not long enough career or high enough peak to go higher than this, but enough of both to land here.

9. Dave Concepcion (PHOM 1994) - Well, I'm voting for Rizzuto and Maranville, so this vote should shock no one. Good career value, plenty of prime value, lacks Rizzuto's peak or Maranville's career, and is thus 3rd of the 3.

10. Urban Shocker (PHOM 1942) - Nice prime, nice 1920-1923 peak, all in the strong league at the time.

11. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1986) - Long career, wrong league, but some nice seasons along the way. He's in my view what Eppa Rixey (who I didn't like) was to most other people. Not overly enthused by him, or anyone else on this portion of the ballot (after Rizzuto I'd say), but we're deep into the backlog, both for PHOM purposes and for my ballot.

12. Dave Bancroft (PHOM 1987) - Rizzuto-esque candidate. A little more consistent bat, not quite the glove, though still real good with it. Long career, plenty of prime.

13. Bill Monroe (PHOM 1930) - Largely forgotten 2B from the first documented days of the Negro Leagues, was a solid glove a pretty good bat for a long time. In retrospect, wish we'd centered on him, rather than Grant, about whom there was very little evidence and a whole lot of guesswork.

14. Thurman Munson (PHOM 1987) - Plenty of defense, plenty of hitting, durable. I'm honestly surprised he doesn't get more support, the untimely death didn't really cut much off his career, he left behind a very strong HOM case.

15. Jake Beckley (PHOM 1931) - Yeah, I'll never hear the end of this one, but his career stands out for the era, even if he's still peakless. It's a testament to how deep we are into the backlog that he's on the ballot, but anyone who stands out like his career does is looking pretty good at this point.

16. Dizzy Dean (PHOM 1988) - I wonder how many ballots have Beckley and Dean side by side. Anyway, all peak, obviously, and enough of it to justify a ballot position if you're a peakster.
17. Lave Cross (PHOM 1988) - Back to the career, plus a touch of catching credit (even when not catching, he played a tough position and played it well).
18. Tony Perez (PHOM 1995) - Lots of career, and plenty of prime as well. Never understood the irritation many statheads expressed when he got in. Sure there are better players out, but he is not any sort of slouch by the Hall's induction standards. If he'd stayed at 3B longer, he'd be a particularly obvious HOMer.
19. Buddy Bell (PHOM 1996) - Never though I'd be PHOMing Bell, but here we are. Nearly identical to Nettles, who is next in the queue. Neither had a great peak, but had a strong career that oozed with prime.
20. Graig Nettles (PHOM 1997) - See Bell. Maybe the best counter to the "batting average is everything" people.

Other top 10 returnees

NR. Edd Roush - Consistently missing games, in the weak league, not a good fielder, not a great hitter. Pass.
21. Nellie Fox - Basically Rizzuto, but at 2B rather than SS, and the difference hurts on a ballot this bunched up. Nonetheless, likely to be PHOM'd a year or two after he's HOM'd.
58. Pete Browning - Not in love, no fielding, career is short for an OF.
24. Rollie Fingers - Might squeeze into my PHOM one day, but I believe the importance of relievers is vastly overblown by baseball men, and I don't feel compelled to go along with it too much. If pressed on it, I'd say Wilhelm, Gossage, and Rivera were the only HOM relievers, with a couple others (including Fingers) right on the borderline.
51. Charley Jones - Even with blacklist credit, he just didn't have a long enough career for an OF of this era. I'd rather have Dunlap a million times over.

Other newcomers

94. Dave Parker - Really thought he'd be better, but way too short on the prime before he declined, and his revival was really only one season before he slipped back to mediocrity.
   134. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 16, 2007 at 10:14 PM (#2336536)
Dammit, super hot girl called to go out just as I was recalculating my replacement levels! Time for another (semi) ad hoc ballot...

1. John McGraw
If you properly crunch all the numbers (3B rep level, basestealing, value of out avoidance in his run environment), you wind up with the same conclusion that you'd draw looking at the most basic leaderboards--the man with the third-highest OBP of all time deserves to be in the Hall of Merit.

2. Dwight Evans
I commented on his thread, but he's got a terrific peak season in '81 and a beefy extended prime. All-around goodness.

3. Reggie Smith
Jimmy Wynn with better fielding and an extra good season in Japan.

4. David Concepción
All-time glove, played when SS didn't hit in hard-to-dominate leagues.

5. Phil Rizzuto
New to my ballot. Came into the league like gangbusters only to go fight in the war. Then showed us what he could have done during those years in 1950.

6. Charley Jones
Hitting clearly at a HoM level; played half his career in the NL; good fielder.

7. Roger Bresnahan
Freely available catchers in the deadball era were so putrid that even in partial PT he gave his teams a huge edge.

8. Dave Bancroft
Better hitter than Concepción, but played in an easier to dominate league and lacks the baserunning value.

9. Graig Nettles
All-world fielder, played forever in extremely difficult to dominate league.

10. Pete Browning
The stick was legit.

11. Eddie Cicotte
Adjusting for hit-unluckiness in 1918, he's got the best pitching peak available.

12. Alejandro Oms
I'm a fan of Cuyler, and Oms appears to be a nudge better.

13. Johnny Pesky
Similar case to Rizzuto; better hitter but not as long at shortstop.

14. Toby Harrah
He was only a butcher in the field half the time, and having his kind of hitting at SS in his day was a gigantic advantage.

15. Buddy Bell
See Nettles.


Edd Roush: Similar to Wynn, but in a much easier to dominate league.
Jake Beckley: Not enough peak for me. 1B was tougher in his day, but not *that* much tougher.
Nellie Fox: I think I've said enough.
Rollie Fingers: "Chaining" convinces me that Wilhelm, Rivera, and Gossage are the only Meritorious relievers.
Tony Pérez: Not much above average for most of his time at 1B.
Dick Redding: No proof.
   135. EricC Posted: April 16, 2007 at 10:31 PM (#2336548)
1997 ballot. System: position players are rated by win shares per plate appearance relative to contemporaries at same position and overall; pitchers are rated by ERA+ (in spite of its flaws). Optimum consecutive "prime" is found in each player's career, where prime ratings are determined by a nonlinear sliding scale in which more playing time requires a lower rate for the same rating.

1. Wally Schang Correcting for the 154-game schedule and the WWI-shortened seasons, has as much career value as Freehan in as many games, at least by Win Shares. Schang's lesser season-by-season totals is because in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards.

2. Tommy John Career pitching candidate in the mold of Faber or E. Wynn. Kaat is also similar. I can see how some voters would not put Tommy John within a mile of their ballots; on the other hand, John's decent showing in the mock BBWAA election shows that some level of support exists.

3. Dwight Evans Not astonishing by rates, but a very long career at good to very good. Understand his support; don't understand why those supporting Evans are not supporting Staub too, as their careers look extremely similar.

4. Nellie Fox Consistently among better 2B 1951-1960; lots of padding of career stats outside these years. Has enough peak/prime to make him tolerable to some peak/prime voters, that, as well as being a 1950s IF, helps to boost his chance of eventual election. For those who don't see it, perhaps you aren't considering his "A" defense?

5. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF, unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). Maybe I should call all the bats that crowd the middle to bottom half of my ballot "quadruple-A HoM candidates".

6. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

7. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

8. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

9. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF. One stat that I've tabulated for fun is career Win Shares times career WS per plate appearance. It's not a perfect stat, but does correlate well with HoM selections. In this measure, Reggie Smith is the highest unelected player. That doesn't prove that he's a HoMer, but does suggest searching for reasons for his lack of support: (1) he's a 'tweener' between peak and career; (2) he missed a lot of playing time so that while his rate stats were always well above average, they don't show always lead to high season-by-season totals for those who look at things that way (3) he split defense among several positions; some may be rating him as a RF and neglecting his CF play.

10. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

11. Ken Singleton Multiple all star-type seasons 1975-1979; MVP level 1977 season. Very durable in 1972-1983 prime; not much outside this. List of similar players suggests that he will not make it to the HoM easily, if at all.

12. Gene Tenace Consistent, high secondary average, run producing catcher. Would appear to be clearly below the consensus in/out line for catchers, but I rate catchers higher than most.

13. Jim Kaat Going by ERA+, anything Reuschel could do, he could do longer. I do buy the argument that ERA+ is not the perfect measure; it is very plausible to me that Reuschel did pitch better than Kaat when pitching, though there is a significant difference in total IP.

14. Roger Bresnahan Mutiple years of all-star level C play and wasn't too shabby in the CF either.

15. Sol White Star-quality middle-infielder, mainly 2B, with long career late 1880s to mid 1900s. Unfortuately, too much of his record is lost to know how accurate this rating is.

Dave Parker is yet another borderline-type candidate who almost makes my ballot.

Tony Perez is yet another borderline-type candidate who almost makes my ballot.

Because of early 20th c. NL weakness, and the existance of too many great centerfielders as exact contemporaries of Roush, I do not support his candidacy.

Fingers looks to me like a "career reliever" candidate, like Lee Smith. This type does not come out highly in my system, though I can see the argument for having more relievers than I'm likely to put in my PHoM.

Jake Beckley was on my ballot once upon a time, but has been squeezed out.

I have Bill Byrd a touch above Redding, and Sol White (15 on my ballot) is the unelected NeL candidate that I rate the highest.

Considering the context of thin and weak competition, lack of durability, and career shortness, there is less than meets the eye in Browning's case. Would be a mistake to elect him before more worthy 1890s candidates such as Beckley, Duffy, McGraw, Ryan, and Van Haltren. His mistake election would be partly a result of the effects of expansion and contraction on the quality of play. For example, while it is true that the quality of play in the AA from 1886 to 1889 was almost as good as in the NL, the NL itself was weak then. Considering only the deviation from long-term trends due to expansion/contraction plus relative league strengths, (i.e. no "timelining"), the average correction factor I've come up with for the 1890s NL is 1.07 (for measures that scale as OPS+ or wins), 0.96 for the 1880s NL, 0.91 for the 1886-1889 AA, and 0.76 for other AA years, with as low as 0.57 for 1882. Browning is about as good a candidate as Tiernan from the 1890s and a poorer choice than those named above.
   136. KJOK Posted: April 16, 2007 at 11:00 PM (#2336561)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 231 Win Shares, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

3. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate not elected.

4. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

5. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 237 Win Shares, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

6. GENE TENACE, C/1B. 26 POW, 231 Win Shares, 73 WARP1, 244 RCAP & .670 OWP in 5,525 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Highly underrated, and very close to Bresnahan in performance.

7. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

8. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

9. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

10. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

11. DWIGHT EVANS, RF. 25 POW, 347 Win Shares, 105 WARP1, 264 RCAP & .616 OWP in 10,569 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Very good in the 1980’s, but hitting isn’t that great for a corner OF, and even great fielding corner outfielders don’t contribut all that much defensive value.

12. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

13. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

14. BUS CLARKSON, SS/3B. Estimated 123 OPS+ over 8,478 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Hitting far exceeds guys like Marcelle, Dandridge, etc.

15.RON CEY, 3B. 21 POW, 280 Win Shares, 95 WARP1, 180 RCAP & .586 OWP in 8,344 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Very good hitter for his position.


DAVE PARKER, RF. 15 POW, 327 Win Shares, 85 WARP1, 91 RCAP & .577 OWP in 10,184 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Surprised he wasn’t even close to my ballot. 5 really good years, plus a revival in 1985, but nothing else to recommend him.



EDD ROUSH, CF. 10 POW, 110 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .622 OWP in 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Bob Johnson’s edge in offense.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, 93 WARP1, 129 RCAP & .483 OWP in 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Would rank Concepcion and Monroe ahead of him.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

ROLLIE FINGERS, RP. 23 POW, 188 Win Shares, 80 WARP1, 103 RSAA, & 119 ERA+ in 1,701 innings. Even with post season and leverage, can’t match up to starters with that ERA+.

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, 71 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .697 OWP in 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

GAVVY CRAVATH, RF. 18 POW, 202 Win Shares, 59 WARP1, 238 RCAP & .709 OWP in 4,644 PA’s. Def: FAIR. McGraw provided better offense in more MLB PA’s at a tougher position.

ALEJANDRO OMS, CF/RF. Estimated 126 OPS+ over 5,152 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Eric Davis. That won’t cut it in this crowd.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.
   137. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: April 16, 2007 at 11:08 PM (#2336568)
I promised myself I’d finish my taxes before doing my ballot, and I did. Now I just have to sit down with my checkbook and open a vein. ;-)

“’Cause I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman, and you’re working for no one but me.”

1997 ballot:

1. Rollie Fingers, rp: 3rd best reliever to date, behind Wilhelm & Gossage. (eligible & PHOM 1991)

2. Roger Bresnahan, c: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

3. Nellie Fox, 2b: A genteel vote for the Pale Hose keystoner. Not swayed by suggestions of “suckitude”. (eligible 1971, PHOM 1977)

4. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

5. Dwight Evans, rf: Long, steady career. Aged well. Best of the available corner outfielders. (eligible 1997)

6. Bobby Bonds, rf: 5-tool outfielder. Had the speed and skill to play center, at least early on, but the Giants had some other guy there already. (eligible 1987, PHOM 1996)

7. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Has the peak/prime edge over Perez and Cash, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980, PHOM 1996)

8. Lou Brock, lf: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985)

9. Bruce Sutter, rp: Terrific ERA+ and incredible WS rate. Established the mold for the modern closer, but wasn’t confined to the 1-inning regimen. Career’s a bit short. (eligible 1994)

10. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. Too many bad seasons have ruined his chances. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

11. Bob Johnson, lf: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the top outfielders in his league almost every year. 6 STATS all-star teams, 11 quality seasons. If we discount 10% for wartime performance, it’s 5.9 and 10.8 respectively. ;-) (eligible 1951)

12. Pie Traynor, 3b: 11 quality seasons, 6-time STATS all-star, but the OPS+ is just ordinary and defense isn’t outstanding. Slips a bit, as he may well have been a standout over a weak field. (eligible 1941, PHOM 1987)

13. Vern Stephens, ss: Best bat among the eligible shortstops, good glove. (eligible 1961)

14. Phil Rizzuto, ss: I’d like a little more peak, but with credit for the missing years, he’s got the career value. Great defense, infield anchor for a bunch of pennant winners. (eligible 1962)

15. Lefty Gomez, sp: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA. Pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

Required comments:
Pete Browning, cf: Monster hitter, pretty monstrous on defense. A force when in the lineup, but some in-season durability problems. (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)
Edd Roush: I’m not inclined to give him credit for his mini-, midi- and maxi-holdouts, so I see durability issues and him hurting his team by his absences. I’m also not wowed by his numbers in context of the time. I have Reggie Smith ahead of him.
Jake Beckley: Very good for a long time. He went into my PHOM in ’26, but I’ve cooled off on him since.
Dick Redding, sp: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. HOF vote still bothers me a bit; he’d be higher if it didn’t. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)
Tony Perez, 1b/3b: Less peak than Cepeda or Cash, more than you-know-who. Better as a 3b than where he played most of his career. (eligible 1992)

Dave Parker’s okay, but I have several other corners ahead;
I’m not ready to follow the Bus yet.
   138. OCF Posted: April 16, 2007 at 11:26 PM (#2336585)
'zop: Should your revised ballot actually read

9. Bancroft
10. Roush
11. Browning?

That's what makes the most sense in context.
   139. OCF Posted: April 16, 2007 at 11:29 PM (#2336586)
OK, I missed #128 where you said exactly that. Carry on.
   140. Spencer Benedict Posted: April 16, 2007 at 11:39 PM (#2336598)
1. Lou Brock: Perhaps the worst of the 3000 hit club, but still a member. Also the worst member of the 900 SB club.

2. Tony Oliva: Top hitter. Eight year peak.

3. Orlando Cepeda: Had one foot in the door before he was 26. He won an MVP after that.

4. Rollie Fingers: To the extent relievers can be let in the door, he’s as good as the next guy.

5. Left Gomez: 125 career ERA+, 87 games over .500, consistent all-star.

6. Nellie Fox: Did quite well in the MVP voting in a sluggers era. I’m short on middle infielders.

7. Carl Mays: 81 games over .500 and a career 119 ERA+. B-R says he is the cousin of Joe Mays.

8. Dizzy Dean: Had a few more top flight years than McLain but not as many as Koufax. 2.60 MVP shares.

9. Indian Bob Johnson: Pumped out those .295/.380/.500 seasons.

10. Luis Tiant: Two-time ERA+ leader and four-time twenty game winner

11. Chuck Klein: His “Most Similar by Age” comps are staggering. Even discounting for the ballpark, it’s a pretty good recommendation for inclusion here.

12. Burleigh Grimes: I know its situation dependent, but the five 20 win seasons have to count for something.

13. Edd Roush: I like more power from players of this era, so it will be difficult for him to move up.

14. Ken Singleton: The gaudy OBP’s get my attention

15. Jim Kaat: Near the top of his league for several years, not necessarily consecutively.

Perez was a helluva player. The most similar player on B-R is Harold Baines, which seem about right. Browning and Beckley are probably #16 and #17. I don’t think that they are unique enough players that I feel real bad about leaving them off the ballot. I may be slighting Redding, but from what I know he wasn’t very peaky and there are a few hurlers like that who are not on my ballot. Dewey is comparable to a few other recent OF’s who were really good for a long time. I’m not ready yet.
   141. Chris Cobb Posted: April 16, 2007 at 11:40 PM (#2336599)
1997 Ballot

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments. I have recently become concerned at the impact of the very-low-replacement level of both WARP1 and WS on my rankings. I include a rate stat in my system, but I am not confident that it compensates sufficiently for the overvaluing of pure playing time by the comprehensive metrics. I haven’t had time to revamp my system to adjust replacement level yet, but one of my subjective adjustments identifies players who are likely to be overrated somewhat for this reason. I have begun using Dan R’s wins above replacement as a tool for this purpose also. Long-career, strong-defense infielders have benefited from this.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Dwight Evans (n/e) % = 1.0723. Evans is a difficult player for me to rate. He was an above-average player for a long time, but he didn’t have a great peak because his fielding and hitting peaks didn’t overlap. He was nothing special as a hitter in the 1970s, but he was an awesome right fielder. In the 1980s, he developed exceptional plate discipline and a power stroke, and he became an excellent hitter, but his defensive value slipped. The two peaks do overlap somewhat in the early 1980s: 1981-84 to be precise, but they are muted by the strike in 1981 (I do adjust for that, but not all do), and by injury in 1983. What he has, as a result, is a very long prime with a good peak, which is not exciting but very valuable, a point on which WARP, WS, and Dan R’s WAR all agree. So I’m going t accept my metrics findings and put him at #1.
2. Rollie Fingers (4) % = 1.0419. Fingers shows up comfortably above the in/out line in my system. He was not as lights-out as we have come to expect the modern closer to be, but he was still highly effective, extremely durable, and highly leveraged.
3. Dave Bancroft (5). % = 1.0463. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him. Someone asked how Nellie Fox was better than Bancroft. A pertinent question, since they were about equal offensive players, and Bancroft was a top defender at a more important position. Fox definitely enjoys an edge in seasonal-durability, but I prefer Bancroft’s defensive edge.
4. Alejandro Oms (6) % = 1.0407. All of my top candidates this year have long, strong primes without a great peak. This is as true of Oms as of Evans, Fingers, and Bancroft.
5. Tommy Leach (7). % = 1.0381. Outstanding player for a long time. Andrew Siegel’s brief analysis of his case is excellent, and Dan R’s war2 shows that his play in relatively high SD leagues was still very valuable.
6. Jake Beckley (9). % = 1.0250. At the top of a large set of long-career, low peak candidates that make up about 2/3 of the next 10 candidates. The two group includes Maranville, Perez, Bell, Nettles, Cash, Fox, and Staub. The “bat” candidate at the other end of this group is Rusty Staub. Staub’s record and Beckley’s are highly comparable, so there’s very little separating #9 from #20 in my rankings, but Beckley is at the top of the group because his defensive performance was consistently superior when that was more valuable, and he was durable when that was a rarer commodity. I hope we will elect several players from this group in upcoming backlog years. The slight bias of the electorate toward peak value against career value has, I think, led us to underrate this group of career candidates a little bit.
7. Rabbit Maranville (10) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop who hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study indicates that my system overvalues him, but he still has a strong career argument.
8. Buddy Bell (16). % = 1.0349. Better than I realized. Both WARP and WS love his defense, and he’s on the good side of the in-out line by both metrics in my system. Very similar to Nettles, but his defensive excellence appears to have lasted longer. I have ranked him below what his percentile ranking suggests because I am not exactly sure where the in-out line for the 1980s will end up. Right now that in-out line is quite low, but it could rise as I finish evaluating that decade’s candidates.
9. Graig Nettles (17). % = 1.00. Great defender, decent hitter for a long time. Looks identical to Bell in overall merit, and I prefer both to Nellie Fox. It’s fitting that it has worked out so that they are arriving on my ballot together. I might resort to the archaic practice of splitting my #15 vote rather than putting one on the ballot and one off.
10. Edd Roush (2). % = 1.0487. Concerns about replacement level and competition levels have caused me to back off a bit on Roush. I still think he is electable, and I wouldn’t be sorry to see him elected this year, but I’m no longer convinced that he is the best candidate available.
11. Bus Clarkson (11). % = 1.00. Lots of discussion of his new MLEs has ended with his value looking about like it did before the revision, in my view. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him the edge over Perez.
12. Bobby Bonds (13) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.
13. Charley Jones (14). % = 1.00. Back on my ballot; he last got a vote from me in 1988. I give him 2+ years credit for the blacklisting. The only player on the ballot with an argument to have been the best player in baseball at his peak.
14. Luis Tiant (15). % = 1.0024. Best backlog starting pitcher available. I see him as having about the same overall value as Jim Bunning: a little less than Billy Pierce. His prime was broken up by arm injuries, but he was excellent on either side of his injury years. Worthy of election, but I’m not in any hurry to push his candidacy.
15. Tony Perez (12). % = 1.0327. Dan R’s replacement-level study drops Perez somewhat in my estimation. I’m not ready to remove him from my ballot, but, a with Roush, I am moderating my support.
   142. Spencer Benedict Posted: April 16, 2007 at 11:41 PM (#2336600)
Oh, and Brock's stolen bases meant alot in the context of the 1960's.
   143. Chris Cobb Posted: April 16, 2007 at 11:42 PM (#2336602)
1997 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Norm Cash. (18) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Bell and Nettles on league-strength considerations.
17. Nellie Fox (19). % = 1.00. I thought he wasn’t going to make my ballot before he was elected. Since his drive to election has slowed, maybe he will. Average bat, excellent glove, excellent durability at a position where durability was difficult make for an excellent second-base package, but it doesn’t match what Bancroft, Maranville, Bell, and Nettles have to offer as bat-glove packages. In many cases, I think that zop’s rather intemperately expressed concerns about supporters of Fox not linking their rankings all that closely to value are justified, but his exceptional durability does make him more competitive, on a seasonal basis, with players whose career rates are superior. Fox is significantly overrated by win shares because its batting zero point is way too low. Nevertheless, as the backlog thins out, he is getting close to my ballot, and if he isn’t elected this year, he might make it on to my ballot before he achieves election.
18. Rusty Staub (20) % = 1.0457. My system argues for a higher placement than I have given Staub, but few players that I have ranked have added more career value in a series of below-average seasons, so I believe my system overrates him. He was legitimately outstanding during his peak in Montreal, however, so he should be in the mix. A career-slice approach suggests that the contemporary “bat” players to whom he is closest in value are Bonds and Norm Cash, so I am ranking him just a little below the two of them. His profile is also a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, actually, which provides another justification for ranking him about here, just a half dozen spots ahead of the best outfielder from the 1890s still eligible.
19. Gavvy Cravath (21). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Slips a little bit as a result of recent discussions, which have made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia. I am therefore having a harder time seeing what makes him better than Bob Johnson.
20. Joe Tinker (22). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
21. Tommy John (23). % = 1.0308. Slightly overrated in my system. People talked about Sutton as lacking peak. He was loaded with peak compared to John. I like his career fine, but if you look at innings and rate, he was above average for less than half of his career, so his peak is really weak. I don’t oppose his election, but I certainly don’t favor it at present, either.
22. Bob Johnson (25). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
23. Reggie Smith (34) % = .9791. Dan R’s numbers bring him back into my potentially electable group. His case is still much weakened by seasonal durability issues and by a Dw. Evanseque divide between fielding peak and batting peak, but he was an above average player for a long time, and hardly ever had a bad year.
24. Dom Dimaggio (26). % = 1.00. Likewise.
25. Jimmy Ryan (27). % = 1.00. The best of the remaining 1890s outfielders.
26. Herman Long (24). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts. Dan R’s numbers on Long are not encouraging, so he slips a bit his year.
27. Dick Redding (28). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Burleigh Grimes.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

28. Bill Monroe .9922
29. Don Newcombe .9886
30. Urban Shocker .9867
31. Burleigh Grimes .9845
32. George Burns .9879
33. Willie Davis .9896
34. Ron Cey .9800
35. Ken Singleton .9780
36. Johnny Evers .9779
37. Fielder Jones .9778
38. Bruce Sutter .9755
39. Ron Guidry .9735.
40. Lave Cross .9709
41. Hugh Duffy .9686
42. Johnny Pesky .9676
43. Ben Taylor .9667
44. Cy Seymour .9665
45. Rick Reuschel .9657. I need to reevaluate him in light of Joe’s arguments, but couldn’t to that this year.
46. Dick Bartell .9653
47. Jim Kaat .9631.
48. George Van Haltren .9538
49. Larry Doyle .9614
50. Bobby Veach .9609
51. Buzz Arlett .9602
52. Vada Pinson .9599
53. Dave Parker .9593. In the late 1970s, Parker was a great player. But drugs and excess weight took their toll, and he had only a few more very good seasons after that. Peak voters who favor win shares will certainly have Parker much higher, but I think my system’s placement of him in the company of Pinson and Cruz is an accurate reflection of his overall value. They are both underrated by history: Parker is overrated.
54. Jose Cruz .9587.
55. Leroy Matlock .9544
56. Tommy Bond .9511

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Nellie Fox. See #17 above

Pete Browning. % = .8920. Yes, he was an outstanding hitter, but his eye-popping years were all in the weakest major leagues of all time (excepting the UA), he was not an asset on defense, he was not durable within seasons, and his career was short. He is not near my top 50 eligibles. My system sees him as having a case similar to Frank Howard and Rocky Colavito. They have arguments, but they are nevertheless clearly on the outside looking in. There was a bit of talk about “our biggest mistake” election. The only two choices we have made that I see as clear “mistakes” are Bill Terry and Sam Thompson, with Thompson being the bigger of the two. Browning is distinctly less qualified than Thompson. All three players were overrated, I think, because they have very gaudy batting statistics that aren’t as meritorious as they appear.

Dick Redding. See #27 above.

Bob Johnson. See #22 above. I’m actually rather pleased to see Johnson in the returning top 10. He was unfairly neglected for many years after he first became eligible, and I was among those who didn’t give him as much support as he merited. I’m not advocating his election, but I don’t see him as a bad choice. If I had a pHOM, which I might get around to creating once we are caught up to the present, I would guess that Johnson would have a good shot at entry during a backlog year between 2007 and 2012.

New Arrivals worthy of note but not within 5% of the in-out line:

Ken Griffey, Sr. Al Oliver, light, or about the same career value as Bobby Murcer, but without the peak. He’s too far from a serious candidate for me to do a full workup, but he was a very good player in his prime, and a useful player for a long time. Better than Bill Buckner.

Gary Templeton. He had a couple of excellent years for the Cardinals, but after that he was pretty much an ordinary player. Also better than Bill Buckner, though.
   144. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: April 16, 2007 at 11:55 PM (#2336613)
Wow, you guys are good. This was the year I was finally going to decide if I really trusted Clarkson’s MLEs or not, because if I did, I had to put him in my PHoM. And then you go and give me new, even better MLEs, and I can’t argue anymore. Clarkson, Rizzuto and Evans make my PHoM this year. Dave Parker is…well, I just went up to 40 this year. He’s below that.

1. George Van Haltren (3) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

2. Bus Clarkson (13) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO. I really need to decide whether I’m going to accept the MLEs and put him in my PHoM, or don’t do so and drop him down. Also looks a lot like Ron Cey, with possibly more defensive value. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Dick Redding (4) After reading Chris's interpretation of the HoF numbers, it does appear I need to pull him back a bit. Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

4. Bob Johnson (7) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am. Made my PHoM in 1992.

5. Bill Monroe (2) NOT surprised to see I was his Best Friend. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Anybody who wants to vote for Marvin Williams should look at Monroe as well. And honestly, outside of knowing what the actual numbers are, I don’t know of any particular advantage Nellie Fox has over him. Made my PHoM in 1939.

6. Gavvy Cravath (5) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

7. Jake Beckley. (10) I still think his typical season was pretty weak for a HoM candidate, but he has a ton of career value, and was more consistent than Cash and especially Cepeda. Has more above-average seasons than Perez, who padded his career with just-OK years. Made my PHoM in 1987.

8. Tommy Leach (8) Dropped from the top of may ballot because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

9. Reggie Smith (10) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP definitely has him with less fielding value than Wynn. Made my PHoM in 1995.

10. Edd Roush (11) I can surprise myself sometimes. I am still leery about giving out holdout credit, but even with the missed time, he does have a pretty good peak by WS. He’s pretty similar to Wynn, and I like Wynn a lot. WARP isn't crazy about his defense, though. Made my PHoM in 1992.

11. Phil Rizzuto (15) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that. Holy cow! Makes my PHoM this year.

12. Dwight Evans (new) I know there are a lot of things going for him that don’t necessarily show up in the stats – his defense, the DH factor (though it helped him too), the strike in his big year. But while his peak is decent, he gets his career value through a lot of just OK seasons. Of the recent “newloggers”, he’s the one I’m the most iffy about. But I can’t put him any lower. Makes my PHoM this year.

(11A Clark Griffith)

13. Norm Cash (16) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism). He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1.

14. Tony Perez (14) I really have a tough time differentiating him and Cash. He does have a good peak, but his late-70s years aren't much above average.

15. Elston Howard (23) I wasn't giving him enough credit – now I think I am. Plus it would have felt weird not having a catcher on my ballot. :) (Note: this is not a serious argument. But it would have felt weird.)

16. Luis Tiant (17) After the deluge of 1970s-era pitchers, he’ll have to be reevaluated, but he could move up. Caught up on my pitcher evaluation system, and he didn't do so hot.
17. Bob Elliott (25) This year, when I looked at him, I liked him a little better than any of the 70’s 3B candidates, partly because there’s just so many of them.
18. Alejandro Oms (18) A reasonable candidate, but doesn’t stand out for me in any particular manner.
(18A Rube Foster, 18B Cool Papa Bell)
19. Bobby Bonds (20) On further review, I was a bit too bullish on him when he first showed up, but he is quite good.
20. Ron Cey (19) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. He's wasn't any worse than Evans, but didn't last as long. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
21. Bucky Walters (22) I guess I am sort of light on pitchers, but for now I can’t put him any higher due to wartime.
22. Nellie Fox (21) Not quite up to the standard of Doerr/Gordon/Childs, and the HoM is not notably short on 2Bmen.
(22A Max Carey, 22B Sam Thompson)
23. Rusty Staub (24) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Definitely behind Perez.
(23A Ralph Kiner, 23B Richie Ashburn)
24. Ben Taylor (26) Another solid candidate who might have been overlooked.
25. Vern Stephens (28) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
26. Dizzy Dean (27) Is his peak case really that much weaker than Keller and Kiner? I'm wondering.
27. Charley Jones (29) Even with the missed time credit, there's just not quite enough to make the ballot.
28. Orlando Cepeda (30) A little ways behind the other 1Bmen. They all have a stronger argument for one angle or another.
29. Don Newcombe (31) Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument.
(29A Hughie Jennings, 29B George Sisler)
30. Rollie Fingers (32) First, I’m not convinced he’s really ahead of all the other reliever candidates, and second, I’m not convinced that he would be worth induction even if he was.
31. Ken Singleton
32. Graig Nettles
33. Pete Browning (35) An outstanding hitter, but a truly awful fielder, and played most of his career in the weaker league. I wouldn't be upset if he got in, but I don't quite see it.
34. Roger Bresnahan
35. Lou Brock
36. Tony Lazzeri
37. Burleigh Grimes
38. Dave Bancroft
39. Frank Howard
40. Marvin Williams
   145. Max Parkinson Posted: April 16, 2007 at 11:59 PM (#2336615)
Quickly, to get under the deadline - then I'll post the whole thing.

Ch. Jones
D. Evans
G. Burns
   146. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 17, 2007 at 12:01 AM (#2336616)
The election is now over. Results will be posted at 10 PM EDT.
   147. Max Parkinson Posted: April 17, 2007 at 12:22 AM (#2336624)
1997 ballot (MP HoMers in bold):

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

MP HoM / not HoM: C. Jones, P. Browning, D. Redding, G. Cravath, J. McGraw, N. Williamson, B. Taylor, R. Fingers, B. Walters (I missed a couple of elections)
HoM / not MP HoM: E. Sutton, F. Grant, M. Carey, P. Reese, E. Rixey, R. Ashburn, J. Gordon, D. Allen, B. Freehan, M. Minoso, K. Boyer, P. Rose, D. Evans, Q. Trouppe, Wynn

1. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

2. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

3. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

4. Dick Redding

5. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

6. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

7. Rollie Fingers

It’s taken a couple of years, but I’ve become more confident that he’s on the right side of the In/Out line for relievers.

8. Bucky Walters

A very good peak, and good hitter to boot. He’s the edge right now for elected pitchers.

9. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

10. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.

11. Dwight Evans

A great defensive RF, who could hit a fair bit, too.

12. George Burns

Maybe I'm crazy, but if he had put up the exact same numbers, and had been an average CF as opposed to a terrific LF (that is, no change to his talent or performance, just what was written on the lineup card), I think that he'd either be in already, or at least above Roush.

13. Tony Perez

Good player - too bad that knowing Joe Morgan doesn't get him bonus points here.

14. Bobby Veach

Years ago, someone (DanG, maybe) used to post top OPS+, 1900-1920. I believe that the only members of the top twenty not yet elected are Cravath (no. 1!), Veach and Bresnahan. Veach was a second tier slugging OF, and in his best years was one of the top 3 outfielders in his league, which says something when the other two were named Cobb and Speaker.

15. Dave Bancroft

There is some merit in being the best at your position in the game, IMO. That said, for a second baseman, that amount of merit needs to be qualified by the fact that for the very most part, they are failed SS. If you have a 2B who was a good to possibly great fielder, and an almost league-average hitter (Let's call him N. Fox. No wait, that's too obvious..... Let's go with Nellie F. Yes, Nellie F.), and you have a good to possibly great defensive SS who is an almost league average hitter, there is absolutely no question who you'd rather have on your team. Regardless of who the other options at the position are. Hell, if you have a better SS, move the inferior one to second, and he'll be way better than N. Fox. I mean, Nellie F.

16-20. Cash, Nettles, Sutter, Lazzeri, Tiant
21-25. J. Rice, G. Foster, Duffy, Clarkson, Cey
26-30. Konetchy, W. Wood, Trout, Bridges, Munson
31-35. B. Bell, B. Johnson, R. White, Cuyler, Monroe
36-40. Reuschel, Seymour, Youngs, Roush, Matlock
41-45. Klein, Tiernan, Rucker, Gomez, Singleton
46-50. Tenace, Luque, Willis, Harder, Hooper
51-55. Uhle, E. Howard, Cicotte, F. Jones, C. Hunter
56-60. Traynor, Newsom, Campaneris, Guidry, Mays
61-65. T. John, Bonds, Bradley, Grimes. F. Howard
66-70. Bresnahan, Blue, Pennock, Concepcion, Kaat
71-75. S.J. Wood, Oms, Leach, Chance, Griffin
76-80. Staub, Cepeda, Quinn, R. Thomas, Ryan
81-85. Schang, R. Smith, Nash, Beckley, Bottomley
86-90. Bando, Elliott, Dunlap, Warneke, W. Cooper

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Roush – 39.
Beckley – 84.
Fox – 98.

I just don’t see any of these as particularly electable. I’m closest with Roush, but I fear that the gap between my HoM and the general one will grow once we get past the 89-92 rush. Note that this comment is a few years old, but it’s already proven true with Boyer & Trouppe & Wynn (and soon to be Fox and Beckley).
   148. Max Parkinson Posted: April 17, 2007 at 12:27 AM (#2336628)
Mike Webber,

If you're a drinking man, open that bottle of bubbly you've been saving...
   149. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 17, 2007 at 12:58 AM (#2336648)
Max Parkinson, your comment on your vote for Bancroft is the truest thing I've seen on this thread.
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