I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Carlton Fisk-C (n/e): Yount, Brett and Ryan were great, but I like Fisk a little bit more. He's a bona fide HoMer. Karlmagnus, he gets a BoSox cap :-). Best AL catcher for 1972, 1974, 1985 and 1988. Best ML catcher for 1977, 1978 and 1983.

2) Robin Yount-SS/CF/DH (n/e): Great peak and long career at key defensive positions make him an easy ballot choice. Best ML shortstop for 1980, 1981 and 1982 (very close in 1983). Best ML center fielder for 1989.

3) George Brett-3B/1B/DH (n/e): I thought he would be #1 on my ballot, but a little too much 1B/DH hurts him in my system. With that said, he's a "duh" candidate and would be an easy choice for the top spot almost any other year. Best AL third baseman for 1975, 1976 and 1977. Best ML third baseman for 1979, 1980 and 1985.

4) Nolan Ryan-P (n/e): I honestly didn't think he would be this high on my ballot, but my analysis views him as legitimately great even with the longevity advantage his generation had on the mound. Awesome career numbers and his peak wasn't too shabby either. He was extremely close to making my top-three this ballot. Overrated? Yeah, but he still belongs and if he were to go in this "year," I wouldn't be upset at all .

Now that all of the Seventies generation in the HOF have been discussed by us, the only HoM pitcher that I disagree with is Sutton. IOW, I don't think I was too tough on them at all.

5) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (3): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

6) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (4): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

7) Charley Jones-LF/CF (5): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

8) Bucky Walters-P (6): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

9) Mickey Welch-P (7): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

10) Pete Browning-CF/LF (8): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

11) Vic Willis-P (9): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

12) Gavvy Cravath-RF (10): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

13) Alejandro Oms-CF (11): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

14) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (12): He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

15) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (13): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

Dale Murphy: Great peak, but not enough career for me.

What does this ballot have to do with Frank Tanana? Nada.

Redding, Randolph, Fingers and Johnson all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

1999 ballot

1) George Brett - Best AL 3B of his era and one of the best ever, overshadowed by the best 3B of all time during his career.
2) Nolan Ryan - Tremendous career value, 1643 PRAR is more than anyone since Spahn. Slides into my all-time rankings between Perry/Carlton and Gibson/Roberts. If I had to choose between any of those 5 to pitch one game I'd be a lucky manager.
3) Carlton Fisk - 8th on my catcher list.
4) Robin Yount - Comparable to Ernie Banks including the position change. SS peak not as high as Banks but Yount had 2 great years in CF while Banks had a bunch of average at 1B.
5) Luis Tiant - Good career value pitcher, non-consecutive peak seasons but when he was good he was very good.
6) Bus Clarkson - Imagine if Willard Brown could play at SS and 3B. That's one helluva player. 2 time NgL All-Star and 2 MVP caliber seasons in the Texas League. Deserves war credit.
7) Bob Johnson - The flatness of his contribution will screw up some systems but 12-14 years of 20-40% above average is terrific.
8) Tommy Bridges - Beats the pants off Bucky Walters as far as I'm concerned. A war adjusted 990 PRAR 254 PRAA. Walters scores 823 PRAR 175 PRAA with similar adjustments. Bucky's mediocre bat can't make up that difference.
9) Willie Randolph - Very good well-rounded player and I like to reward that.
10) Norm Cash - Defensive value separates him from Cepeda's similar bat
11) Graig Nettles - Randolph and Nettles are comparable players, the votes should be closer.
12) Tony Perez - Time spent at 3B helps him a lot.
13) Buddy Bell - Superior defender over a long career.
14) Ron Cey - Lots of 3B on my ballot but time spent at 3B is really valuable.
15) Rick Reuschel - Great hitter and fielder for a pitcher, some top seasons coupled with a lot of bulk (no pun intended).

16-20) Reggie Smith, Rusty Staub, Virgil Trucks, Gavy Cravath, Bob Elliott
21-25) Ben Taylor, Jack Clark, Tommy John, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Tanana
26-30) Dutch Leonard, Dave Bancroft, Tommy Leach, Bobby Bonds, Thurman Munson
31-35) Dick Redding, Johnny Evers, Jack Quinn, Vic Willis, Ken Singleton
36-40) Urban Shocker, Luke Easter, Rollie Fingers, Dizzy Trout, Lave Cross

48) Pete Browning - I like Dunlap and Charley Jones better
50) Roger Bresnahan - too much time not spent at catcher, though I understand why he was moved off the plate.
73) Bucky Walters - not a good enough pitcher, much of his ERA is defensive support. He's no Dave Stieb.
101) Dale Murphy - slots between Hugh Duffy and Fred Lynn and that seems about right

1999 Ballot - The Best
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. I think it also may be time to go a little more into my baseball philosophy, which may help in clarifying my rankings. I don't believe in the single stat theory of baseball, meaning I don't use WS or WARP in my rankings. Essentially, I follow this as I think a large percentage of what contributes to baseball is not counted. Well, no one has ever counted them as statistics as far as I've ever heard. This includes things like manager's prerogative, and actions that would require a historical pbp analysis currently unavailable. I search for what I consider "total ballplayers", guys who can do it all. I believe in positional representation and abhor the thought process that says that relievers were all failed starters and 2B are all failed SS, etc... A team cannot win without a 2B, nor without someone in LF. When I look at a player's career, I try to ask myself how I would feel about him as his manager - would his presence require special tactics to protect him, or is he completely reliable. I hope it can be seen by my rankings that the reliable players generally rise above the ones with clear holes in their games. There are always exceptions, but this is what I have. The stats I look at to get here tend to be traditional and rate, both offensive and defensive. Contemporary opinion also helps.
In this super-class, I was actually a little disappointed. I mean, I can't really be disappointed by the quality of the big candidates, but I am disappointed that they were not as inner-circle as my childhood wants me to remember. George Brett was a phenomenal 3B, but I didn't realize how much better Mike Schmidt was until this research. He still takes the top spot over Yount, but it's closer than I would have imagined (Brett did seem to miss some time on occasion.) Yount is in second. Great long career between two positions where I give a big weighting to. Nolan Ryan was better than many of us like to convince ourselves he was. It could go either way between him and Fisk, but I'm giving Ryan the edge for some little things. For example, I think Ryan was better than Blyleven, but Fisk was just short of Gary Carter. Not a real reason, but bears thinking about. Dale Murphy is my type of player. A later day Hugh Duffy. I think Duffy was just a touch better, but Murphy is mid ballot, too. Tanana was quite good, but he's not a serious candidate for me. I didn't support Don Sutton, and Sutton was much better than Tanana. Tanana is somewhere between Don Sutton and Terry Mulholland as far as long-career southpaws go. One day we can compare him to Jamie Moyer.

1)George Brett - Better in-season durability and people wouldn't be wondering if he was the 2nd best 3B in the history of the game. They would be wondering if he was THE best. (PHOM)
2)Robin Yount - In my system, I give nearly as much defensive credit to the CFs as I do for the SS's. I support Vern Stephens. Yount was almost Vern's equal as a hitter, most likely a more valuable fielder and had nearly double the career. 8th place on this ballot is also PHOM, but there is quite a gap between 8th and 2nd. (PHOM)
3)Nolan Ryan - Strikeouts are probably undervalues by this group. They take a lot of pressure off the defense. I witnessed Nolan take a no-hitter into the 9th in Toronto around when I was around 10. Nelson Liriano broke it up with 1 down in the bottom of the 9th with a triple and scored on a Kelly Gruber groundout. The Rangers won the game 4-1. That was one of my two favourite baseball memories. (PHOM)
4)Carlton Fisk - What can I say about the original pudge? I loved his late-career baseball cards. I was born after body-English home runs.
5)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
6)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
7)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations. I flipped Bridges and Gomez this week. Not as an affront to Lefty, but after reexamining the cases put up by Dick Redding and Bucky Walters. Of those four, the white guys were all regulars for 10-11 seasons. Bucky and Lefty both had immense peaks, but I think that Lefty's non-peak years hold up better than Bucky's. Also, Lefty does not need any war discount. Dick Redding seems more similar to Walters in that his non-peak was not so impressive. His peak was still enough to leave in him solid backlog country. (I even put him in my PHOM back when I joined the project. Tommy Bridges wins out. He had much greater consistency. He is to pitchers what Bob Johnson was to hitters, but more of a winner. As we see the upcoming dearth of good pitching candidates, I urge everyone to give Tommy Bridges a closer look.(PHOM)
8)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
9)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit. That said, even with the partial credit I am giving him (2 full years), I now see that he was rather durable in season, and he seems to have been a solid defender. (PHOM)
10)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
11)Dale Murphy - A player that my system loves. At his best he dominated. That refers to the years between 1979-1988. That's a 10 year prime with a very high peak. Also demonstrated very good fielding ability. Could easily move up my ballot.
12)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
13)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable. (PHOM)
14)Willie Randolph - Long career, solid bat, solid glove. My system has him as very comparable to, but slightly below, Fox. Less durable, less glove. Nothing to be ashamed of though.
15)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today. (PHOM)

1999 Ballot - the Rest
16)Orlando Cepeda (PHOM)
17)Dave Stieb - I wish I liked him more. Still like him plenty enough, though. On pace for a future PHOM member. I still remember where I was when he finally threw his no-hitter.
18)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarities between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two. Career length is nice as well.
19)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
((19a)Dwight Evans - I honestly held no real memory of him as a player from my childhood, but he gains my respect with a long drawn out prime who (at various times) was an exceptional hitter and fielder. Prefer the peak of Oliva, but I can understand a valid comparison between him and Bob Johnson. Better than Darrell.))
20)Jack Clark - Marvelous hitter who had his uses in the field as well.
21)Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found.
22)Wally Berger - super-underrated
23)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
24)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy. The good doctor's new numbers have been added to my spread sheet, but I have not given him any of a readjustment yet as I wait to see how the electorate takes the info. Solid chance he will make my ballot next year though.
((24a)Darrell Evans - Thanks to Chris Cobb for correcting a flaw in my judgment that was worth 8 spots on this ballot. Being a third basemen for 2 more years would have been worth another 8 spots or so.))
25)Dan Quisenberry - I suppose I've decided that I value peak in a reliever over career totals. Mind you, if the guy has both...well, we'll see what happens with Goose in a few years.
26)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.
27)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
((27a)Jimmy Wynn - In my reassessment, I was struck by the closeness in several of my areas of focus between Jimmy Wynn and Al Oliver. Each man played around 2/3 of his career in CF, and the other 1/3 elsewhere in the OF. Wynn had a higher career OPS+ (128-121) and more seasons above 120 (8-6). I also give Wynn a slight edge with defensive ability. Ultimately, I have Oliver because those differences are quite small and are made up, IMHO by Oliver's extra ink (small consideration), much greater contemporary acclaim (Oliver- 7 ASG appearances, 3 silver sluggers. Wynn - 3 ASG appearances) and mostly by the 3 extra seasons as a regular. Looking at my other highly regarded CF's, Roush is like Oliver but with greater consistency (10 seasons as a regular with an OPS+ greater than 120, plus a great glove. Duffy had the glove (see my comments on his defense in the Duffy/GVH/Jimmy Ryan thread.) and a higher peak than any of them.))
28)Alejandro Oms - This is a serious jump for him in my rankings (nearly 60 places). I was counting him as a RF only. The hybrid time gets him here, just above Reggie Smith. This could change. Right now I have provisionally given him a career as a 50% CF.
29)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves back up a bit as the clouds pass and I see much to compare between R. Smith and J. Wynn.
30)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
31)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily correct to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
32)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
33)Mickey Welch
((33a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((33b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers differently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevant over the years.))
34)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled reliever system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
35)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
36)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((36a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
((36b)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.))
37)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((37a)Cupid Childs))
38)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
39)Rollie Fingers - When he was on, forget about it. Unfortunately, I don't feel that he was on consistently enough to merit anything, much higher than this.
40)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
41)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
42)Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((42a)Don Sutton - Had a peak, but not an exceptional one. His durability pushes him above Tiant.))
43)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
44)Tony Perez - I wasn't giving him the extra glove credit he earned through 5 seasons as the Reds' 3B. Still, no peak. As far as 1B go, I have Cepeda up higher because of his very nice peak and his not too short career as a regular. Ben Taylor suffers from a lack of documented stats. The stats there show that he could flat out mash the ball by dead-ball standards. Contemporaries say his glove was the best they had ever seen at 1B. Very apt, in this year of the Hernandez discussion. How much as a scoop worth? I think it's worth alot. I maintain that while a below average defensive 1B can cause little harm, an above average glove at 1B will provide a hefty bonus to the team lucky enough to employ one.
45)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
46)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
47)Phil Rizzuto
48)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
((48a)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting. See Perez comment for more about my 1B thoughts.))
49)Jimmy Ryan
50)Fred Lynn - Very similar to Duffy and Roush. Loses a lot of ground due to in-season durability concerns for an otherwise very strong candidate. Should be appealing to Browning/Chance/McGraw supporters who overlook that sort of thing.
((50a)Charlie Keller - Let's start with extra credit questions. I do not give minor league MLE credit for being blocked. Integration, yes. Non-MLB affiliation, yes. Having someone else the franchise liked better at the time above you, no. He had serious durability issues. Are high rate stats easier to maintain when not playing a full schedule. It would seem so. A very talented bat, nevertheless. Another voter asked how would Keller and Kiner have fared if they were essentially traded for one another. I have a nagging doubt in my gut that we wouldn't have discussed Keller that much if he played on a different franchise. A great player when on the field. So was Fred Lynn. Charley Jones played more full seasons without blacklist credit than Keller did with both WWII and minor league credit. As I'll only give Keller the WWII credit and I am giving Jones 2 years of blacklist credit, that gives Charley Jones double the career (a pennant is a pennant). Bob Johnson was every inch the hitter Keller was, but in great obscurity and for much longer. What about Wally Berger? Another hard core masher with a short career (still a fair bit longer than Keller's though - and he played CF (and he played it well!)))
51)Cy Williams
52)Amos Otis
53)Dolf Camilli
54)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
55)Pete Browning - A superior masher, but a horrible person to have on your team. No defensive value whatsoever and very very poor durability. Worse than most contemporary catchers.
56)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
57)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
58)George Kell
59)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
60)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
61)Graig Nettles - Among 3B, I figure he sits nicely here between Elliott and Bando. The better question to ask is if I am underrating 3B in general. I'll have to look into it a bit more later. Nettles is the best defensive 3B on my ballot. I think he was better than Boyer as well.
62)Sal Bando
63)Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B.
64)Pie Traynor
65)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
66)Johnny Evers
67)Elston Howard
68)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
69)Bill Mazeroski
70)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
71)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
72)Vic Willis - A reexamination of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
73)Thurmon Munson - see below.
74)Roger Bresnahan - Not like the two above or below, he is among those negatively affected by my new adjustments.
75)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
76)Johnny Pesky
77)Hippo Vaughn
78)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
79)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
80)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
81)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
82)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
83)Rocky Colavito
84)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
85)Denny Lyons
86)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
87)George Van Haltren - see the comment on Wynn. Van Haltren is the big loser on the CF sweepstakes due to his poor fielding by my own accounts.
88)Rabbit Maranville

Ballot cleared out hugely by election of my 68 year #1, but lots of new guys fill it up again – temporarily though, I presume. Will be some new names on the bottom in the new millennium, so I’d better do some more thinking. Brett a clear #1, Fisk a clear #2. Yount v Ryan very close indeed (I think I’d have put Jake ahead of both, marginally) but Ryan gets it, just, on grounds of longevity. Tanana in top 100, just, but below Kaat because of shorter career. Murphy just off bottom of top 100, similar to Cruz, who’s also off the bottom.

1. George Brett (N/A) Clear #1, some distance above #2. 3154 hits @135 so would be in top 3 even if he’d been an outfielder. TB+BB/PA .528, TB+BB/Outs .800.

2. Carlton Fisk (N/A) Should get special bonus for being Red Sox hero, but I resist it. 2356 hits at 117 but he was a catcher so takes him to about 140-145. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .716

3. Nolan Ryan (N/A) 5386IP most distinguished stat. 112ERA+ and 324-292 slightly less so. Well above the HOM borderline, in my view and somewhat underrated by sabermetricians.

4. Robin Yount (N/A) Interesting to see how many go Yount/Ryan and how many Ryan/Yount; in my view Ryan’s clearly better but only because of exceptional longevity. 3142 hits@115. TB+BB/PA .465, TB+BB/Outs .677

5. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3-2-2-3) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4-3-3-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5-4-4-5) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

8. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6-5-5-6) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

9. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7-7-9-8-7-6-6-8) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

10. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8-7-7-9) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

11. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9-8-6-6-8-7-9-8-8-10) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF. Down, but just above Browning

12. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7-5-5-7-6-10-9-9-11) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA. Also discount for not playing full seasons; the normalized hits should thus be about 1900, so drop him to just above Hondo.

13. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13-11-10-10-12) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

14. (N/A-12-11-11-13) Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat.

15. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-13-12-14) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765. Back on ballot again.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-15-N/A-14-13-15) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long. Back off ballot, will return.

17. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-14-N/A) Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

18. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A-15-N/A) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far – back off ballot after 1 year. 3021 innings at 119, 207-126 and 83 OPS+ Others should look at him more closely.

19. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

20. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Back up towards ballot in spite of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP.
21. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

22. (N/A-12) Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best. Should be below rather than above Klein and Johnson, though.

23. Reggie Smith
24. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down.

25. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis Had slipped too far.

26. Rick Reuschel. 214-191, 3548IP@114. Tough to put him far from Tiant, who had a better W/L, but I now realized I was overvaluing Tiant a bit because of Red Sox affiliation.

27. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

28. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Back up towards ballot; we don’t have enough Beaneaters!

29. Brian Downing. 2099 hits at 122 plus he caught about 1/3 of his games. TB+BB/PA.487 TB+BB/Outs.741

30. Dave Stieb 176-137 very unimpressive but 122 ERA+ for 2895 innings more so. Might move up a bit in future years.

31. Roger Bresnahan. Moves up on re-examination, but not close enough to see the ballot because even with a catcher bonus his career is short 1252 hits @126, maybe 1500 with catcher bonus, since he played OF in a lot of his catcher seasons. About 2/3 catcher takes him to 140-142 but 1500 @140-142 is close but no cigar, given Klein and Johnson. TB+BB/PA .447, TB+BB/Outs .719. Lombardi and Schang very clearly better.

32. Tony Perez. Up a little, closer to Staub. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
33. Bill Madlock.
34. Toby Harrah
35. Ben Taylor.
36. Jim Kaat
37. Orlando Cepeda
38. Norm Cash
39. Jim Rice
40. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
41. Cesar Cedeno
42. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
43. Lou Brock
44. Mickey Vernon
45. Thurmon Munson
46. Sal Maglie.
47. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
48. (N/A) Heinie Manush
49. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
50. Bob Elliott
51. (N/A) Dick Lundy
52. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
53. Jack Clark. As good as Reggie Smith but not for as long. 1826 hits@137OPS+, TB+BB .529, TB+BB/Outs .845
54. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
55. Dave Parker.
56. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
57. Gene Tenace
58. Kiki Cuyler
59. Deacon McGuire
60. Jerry Koosman.
61. Boog Powell
62. Ken Singleton.
63. Bucky Walters 198-160, 3104IP at 115 certainly doesn’t make the ballot, but should be on the consideration set, so here he is. Less than Tiant or Reuschel..
64. Sal Bando.
65. Jim Fregosi.
66. Jack Quinn
67. Tony Mullane
68. Rollie Fingers. Add 1/3 of his saves and he becomes 228-118 or thereabouts, but on my adjustment (add 50% and subtract 5 ERA+ points) he goes to 2550/114, which isn’t enough.
69. Ron Cey
70. Pie Traynor
71. Jim McCormick
72. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
73. Joe Judge
74. Spotswood Poles.
75. Buddy Bell.
76. Larry Doyle
77. Willie Randolph Somewhat better than contemporary Nettles, adjusting for positional difference, so about here. 2210 hits at 104 TB+BB/PA.429 TB+BB/Outs.646
78. Curt Simmons
79. Waite Hoyt.
80. Harry Hooper.
81. Vada Pinson
82. Gil Hodges
83. Jules Thomas.
84. Rico Carty.
85. Wilbur Cooper
86. Bruce Petway.
87. Jack Clements
88. Frank Tanana Not quite the quality, given only moderately long career. 4188IP@106; 240-236 particularly undistinguished.
89. Graig Nettles.
90. Bill Monroe
91. Herb Pennock
92. Chief Bender
93. Ed Konetchy
94. Al Oliver
95. Jesse Tannehill
96. Bobby Veach
97. Chet Lemon.
98. Lave Cross
99. Tommy Leach.
100. Tom York

When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers,

karl,
Does this mean you multiply by 162/130 if fewer than 130 games played? How do you handle, say, 100 games at catcher and 20 at first base?

The Fred Lynn comment suggests that you prorate more than catchers.

Paul yes, as I did for the 1870s and 1880s players initially, and later for catchers. Modern catchers play pretty close to 130 games anyway, but back in Schang's day they didn't. I don't pro-rate Lynn, but I don't mark him down for short seasons either; if he accumulates the value, he accumulates the value. CF have a notional bonus on OPS+ of about 5 points over LF/RF; this is to get my positional balance about right, and gets adjusted up or down according to fielding quality (Ozzie got more bonus than Jeter will, but Jeter still looks like a HOMer whereas IMHO Ozzie wasn't.)

Sorry Paul, read you again. I multiply by 130/x, where x is the average number of games actually played. Not very useful after 1920 or so, but slots catchers where they should be in terms of other hitters. They also get a bonus of about 25 OPS+ points for position (varying on quality) as do SS -- 2B, 3B etc. get smaller bonuses.

PHOM - Brett, Yount, Fisk

1. George Brett - 3rd best 3rd baseman so far.

2. Robin Yount - Top 10 SS. If I chose to count him a CFer instead, he'd be top 10 there too.

3. Carlton Fisk - About equal to Carter. Top 10 catcher

4. Nolan Ryan - Only 4th best among this crew, but he was no slouch. 5000+ IP, 5000+ Ks.

5. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

6. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

7. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

8. Dale Murphy - Great hitting centerfielder. Excellent peak from '82-'87.

9. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

10. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

11. Dave Stieb - Had him too low last year. Not that much different that Trout. Didn't have that one monster year like Trout.

12. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

13. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

14. Graig Nettles - Excellent defender, good hitter over a long career. Brooks Robinson-lite.

15. Frank Tanana - Pitched a long time and was average or better for most of it. Similar to Tommy John, but had better peak.

16. Buddy Bell
17. Ken Singleton
18. Bobby Bonds
19. Ceasar Cedeno
20. Dave Parker
21. Vada Pinson
22. Tommy John
23. Norm Cash
24. Willie Randolph
25. Elston Howard
26. Hugh Duffy
27. Tommy Leach
28. Bus Clarkson
29. Bob Elliott
30. Ron Cey
31. Marvin Williams
32. Dave Concepcion
33. George Van Haltren
34. Harry Hooper
35. Luis Tiant
36. Alejandro Oms
37. Buzz Arlett
38. Orlando Cepeda
39. Gil Hodges
40. Burleigh Grimes
41. Reggie Smith
42. Jack Clark
43. Jose Cruz
44. Willie Davis
45. Fielder Jones
46. Dick Redding
47. Rick Reuschel
48. Pie Traynor
49. Jim Kaat
50. Gene Tenace

Browning, Bresnahan - Just out of the top 50.

Fingers - I'm not sure about him, I'd like for a relief pitcher to have more than a couple of dominant seasons.

1999 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. George Brett – 22.4 bWS/700PA, 6 MVP, 12 AS. One of my favorite players.

2. Robin Yount – 18.1 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 13 AS. The similarities with Bill Hall stop at (He was once a SS that moved to CF).

3. Carlton Fisk – 18.1 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 14 AS. He was 102 years old and still the best hitting catcher in the American League.

4. Nolan Ryan – 18.5 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 10 AS. The Express will have to wait at the station for a year.

5. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined. I’m going to be disappointed if he never makes it to the HOM.

6. Pete Browning. 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders. The Gladiator is getting closer.

7. Dave Stieb 21.9 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 8 AS. Very solid, especially for his era.

8. Roger Bresnahan. 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

9. Hugh Duffy. 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

10. George Van Haltren. 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

11. Tommy Leach. 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

12. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. High late-60’s early 70’s peak.

13. Lou Brock. - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career looks pretty good to me.

14. Ben Taylor I think Ben was a smidgen better than Jake Beckley.

15. Bill Monroe. The ultimate overlooked candidate.

16. Willie Randolph 15.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Durability keeps him from being higher. I see him as better than electee Nellie Fox.

17. Luis Tiant. 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

18. Vic Willis. 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

19. Larry Doyle. 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

20. Dan Quisenberry. 45.0 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS. Very dominant during his peak.

OTHER NEAR-MISSES/NEWBIES/LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

C. Wally Schang. 19.8 bWS/700 PA, 0 MVP, 11 AS.

C. Gene Tenace. 24.1 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS.

1B. Orlando Cepeda. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

1B. Tony Perez. 19.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 8 AS.

2B. George Scales. I think we could have missed him.

3B. Pie Traynor. 16.2 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS.

SS. Herman Long. 13.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Vern Stephens. 18.5 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Dick Lundy. Reexamining his offense seems to classify him as a near miss.

LF. George J. Burns. 20.5 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS.

LF. Bob Johnson. 21.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 12 AS. Just doesn’t have enough peak.

LF. Pedro Guerrero – 25.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 7 AS.

CF. Roy Thomas. 23.0 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS.

RF. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS.

RF. Ken Singleton. 22.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS.

RF. Dave Parker – 19.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 9 AS.

RF. Jack Clark – 24.6 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS

RF. Dale Murphy – 18.8 bWS/700PA, 6 MVP, 7 AS. He seems to pale in comparison to to contemporary Pedro Guerrero. Ironically very close bWS/700PA as Lou Brock, who is low on the peak scale.

SP. Urban Shocker. 24.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 7 AS.

SP. Rick Reuschel – 20.3 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Wilbur Cooper. 22.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Eddie Rommel. 24.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Bucky Walters. 22.6 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS. What a peak, but some of it is war years.

SP. Dizzy Dean. 27.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 6 AS.

SP. Mel Harder. 20.5 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 5 AS.

RP. John Hiller. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 5 AS.

RP. Sparky Lyle. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 4 AS.

RP. Rollie Fingers – 33.0 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 4 AS. Not sure that he is better than Hiller and Lyle.

RP. Bruce Sutter. 48.2 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 4 AS.

Pulled the trigger on Charley Jones, other than that no surprises compared to last year.

1) Brett--Just a notch below Mathews on my list.
2) Yount--Followed up a huge peak at short 1980-84 with 2 mvp-quality years at CF 1988-9.
3) Fisk--Great catcher with a long long career. Easy choice.
4) Ryan--Clearly qualified, incredible durability. IP and K take a lot of pressure off the defense and bullpen, he may be overrated but would be 1st ballot HoMer in a normal year.
5) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
6) StiebThe dominant pitcher during a tough time to dominate. Lack of support made his dominance hard to see. Great year for example in 1985 (171 ERA+, 265 IP), and went 14-13. 1982-1985 each year was top 3 in both IP and ERA+. 1981-1985 warp3: 8.5, 9.9, 9.1, 9.7, 9.4.
7) RandolphTremendously underrated. Lifetime OBP of .373 plus great defense and longevity looks good to me. Funny how someone could be so good for so long in NY and get so little credit.
8) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
9) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders. PHoM 1994.
10) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2. PHoM 1995.
11) Perez--Interesting, most people like his career, but wait a minute…he was playing third base from 1967-1971…there’s a peak there. PHoM 1997.
12) Charley Jones--Been thinking about this one forever, finally decided to pull the trigger.
13) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
14) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
15) Cey--I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch. PHoM 1997.

Fingers #19.
Redding #20.
Walters #54.
Browning didn't do much after a big season at age 29.
Bresnahan didn't catch enough to get the big catching bonus he would need. 1906 and 1908 are nice years but the rest isn't enough.

1999 ballot

Review of my methodology: I use two systems, in one I use OPS+, with adjustments for stolen bases and shape of OPS, compared to a positional baseline. For pitchers, this is RA+, with adjustments for high IP seasons and relief pitching. In the other, I simply use the uberstats, mostly WARP but I'm integrating Win Shares into the analysis. For both systems, I use a JAWS-like formula to weigh peak and career.

Changes I did for this year: I recalculated the baseline for corner outfielders, so they all have the same trend (previously, I did that separately for LF and RF). Also, I'm now giving more weight to the uberstats in ranking pitchers.

1-ROBIN YOUNT: Will I be the only one to give him the top spot? In his context, his SS time was super duper valuable (I'll take his 1982 over any of Brett's seasons, for example), and of course his CF time was above Banks-at-first-ian.

2-GEORGE BRETT: Though he already was a DH by the time I became a baseball fan, there's a lot more time outside 3B than I initially thought. Had he been in the hot corner until 1990 or so, he probably would've been #1

3-CARLTON FISK: Better than Carter. Tremendous career for a catcher, his career value on my OPS+ system is just behind Bench. Respectable, if not spectacular, peak.

4-NOLAN RYAN: Sure, there is some relief in having some strong newbie classes, but making an obvious N/B wait a year is a bit too much ;) There is a significant gap between the top three and him, and a similar sized gap between him and the backlog. What's with the unearned runs?

5-GAVVY CRAVATH: His peak is almost as high as a full war-credited Keller's, and with MLE credit he has a much longer career.

6-BUS CLARKSON: New MLEs incorporated. Glad to see the debate on him re-sparked, as we may be missing a gem here. In any case, he has well over 300 MLEed Win Shares, and an OPS+ around 120 from a SS/3B. The better part of his career, including his SS peak, took place before the Negro League scene got outta whack (although he was still well traveled). He was one of the reasons I decided to establish my new offense system, and under it he truly shines. I am discounting his 1940 a bit.

7-LUIS TIANT: he 114 ERA+ over a little less than 3500 innings is unimpressive, specially considering his contemporaries, but he really shined with unearned runs (roughly 8.5% of total runs allowed, compared to about 11.5% for his era). General adjustment of relative pitcher/position player ranking moves him up.

8-WILLIE RANDOLPH: Much, much better than Fox. OPS+ actually over 100, and he was a positive basestealer as well. Not much in the way of peak, but a really strong prime.

9-CHARLEY JONES: The biggest winner of the aforementioned change in corner outfielder baselines. As of now, he's Cravath with a few non-peak years shaved off.

10-ROGER BRESNAHAN: His case has a good bit of context, as it depends on how you account for the brutal conditions for catchers of his time. I like the OBP-heavy production. Should be the favorite candidate of "gap-fillers", along with Clarkson.

11-ALEJANDRO OMS: While the hitting value isn't as much as I once thought, there's too many Win Shares here to ignore. They give him a long career, with a considerable peak as well.

12-TONY LAZZERI: My old teddy bear (although, given my relatively short time voting, does it qualify him as "old"?). Where's the support for a 120 OPS+ second baseman? Was the defense really that bad (and why it doesn't show up on the uberstats, which put him clearly north of Larry Doyle territory)? Is my estimation of the baseline for 1930s second basemen that far off?

13-DAVID CONCEPCIÓN: Averagish-bat, All-Time defense, and a really low baseline to compare him against. Clearly, my favorite among all the middle infielders with a similar profile. I believe there is a "real" reason why shortstops of his time were so bad with the bat, giving him real value.

14-VIC WILLIS: Almost 4000 innings at a 118 ERA+ put him pretty close to the average Hall of Fame starter (probably the average Hall of Meriter is a bit better). Unearned runs are about average for his era, so they don't change his standing too much.

15-BEN TAYLOR: Hernandez's eligibility and election made me take another look at him, and I was impressed. Will Clark is possibly a good comp, but he had a longer career and, because of the extra defensive demands for first basemen of his time, a lower baseline for comparision.

And the other guys are:

16-Tony Perez
17-ROLLIE FINGERS: Is 2000 the year when he finally squeezes into a ballot?
18-DALE MURPHY: As I expected. I really like his peak, a little more CF or a less drastic collapse would have vaulted him into the ballot. If I were keeping track of such things, he would be PHoMed soon.
19-BOB JOHNSON: Victim of the COF rejiggering, and a difficult ballot. I like his career value (which is plenty thanks to a strong prime, not a long career).
20-Toby Harrah
21-Bert Campaneris
22-Marvin Williams
23-George Scales
24-John McGraw
25-Dave Stieb
26-Jimmy Ryan
27-Bobby Avila
28-Bob Elliott
29-Vern Stephens
30-Thurman Munson
31-Cesar Cedeño
32-PETE BROWNING: When you think about it, he's equivalent to a poor-fielding, short career corner outfielder with a 140ish OPS+. His peak is still good, but he needs more.
33-Dave Bancroft
34-Lefty Gomez
35-Ken Singleton
36-Carlos Moran
37-Reggie Smith
38-CANNONBALL DICK REDDING: We know relatively little about him, and what we know isn't enough to suggest a HOMer by itself. His actual performance could belong 30 places higher in this ballot, or 30 places lower.
39-Ron Cey
40-Bobby Bonds
41-Darrell Porter
42-Mickey Welch
43-Rusty Staub
44-Dick Lundy
45-Dick Bartell
46-Ned Williamson
47-Ernie Lombardi
48-Jim Fregosi
49-Norm Cash
50-George Van Haltren
51-Frank Howard
52-Larry Doyle
53-Rick Reuschel
54-Chuck Klein
55-Tommy Leach
56-Wally Schang
57-FRANK TANANA: As a younger fan, his 70's peak does not compute with my memory of him. Still, he needs plenty more.
58-Davey Lopes
59-Sal Bando
60-Orlando Cepeda
61-Gene Tenace
62-Tommy John
63-Luis Aparicio
64-Graig Nettles
65-Ron Guidry
66-Jim Rice
67-Tommy Bridges
68-Fred Lynn
69-Jack Clark
70-Hugh Duffy
71-BUCKY WALTERS: I kept looking for a reason why he managed to enter the top 10, and so far it escapes me. He had a couple of very good seasons, but for the rest of his career he had serious unearned run problems. His career wasn't very long, his peak ended up being quite short as well, he had significant help from his defenses...
72-Carl Mays
73-Bruce Sutter
74-Elston Howard
75-Buddy Bell
76-Phil Rizzuto
77-Dan Quisenberry
78-Artie Wilson
79-Dave Parker
80-Dizzy Dean
81-Pie Traynor
82-Cheo Cruz
83-Wilbur Wood
84-Pedro Guerrero
85-Addie Joss
86-Jim Kaat
87-Burleigh Grimes
88-Wilbur Cooper
89-Gil Hodges
90-Johnny Pesky
91-Chet Lemon
92-Lou Brock
93-Chris Speier

1999 Ballot.

1. George Brett (new) Easily the #3 3rd baseman, behind Schmidt and Mathews, eligible so far. (I haven't yet looked at Boggs.) In 1979 Brett's extra-base hit line was 42-20-23. As far as I know, that's the only case of 20 of each kind of extra base hit, although attempts to quantify that combination with a "Brett number" combining the three categories does turn up some other years, including Gehrig 1927 (52-18-47).
2. Robin Yount (new) If someone is above major league replacement level at 18 years old, what does the upside for further growth look like? Yount provides an example.
3. Carlton Fisk (new) The Beckley of catchers. If he has a peak, it's not that easy to find. But he rewrote the book on how long a catcher can play.
4. Nolan Ryan (new) Don Sutton with no-hitters. In my system, strictly a career candidate - I don't see that much to like in his peak or prime. But then, I am usually a sucker for a good career case.
5. Larry Doyle (2, 1, 1, 3) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. Some other voters' comments have portrayed him as not mediocre, but historically bad, a "statue." If so, why did the defense-obsessed writers vote him a Chalmers award? I tend to doubt that John McGraw would have put up with that bad a defensive liability.
6. Dave Stieb (----, 6) RA+ Pythpat 190-131 with a 4-year peak that was an equivalent 81-41. Edges ahead of Bridges and Walters because the 80's were a harder decade to dominate.
7. George Van Haltren (7, 6, 4, 2, 4) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career. Has now been on my ballot for 86 years. Sam Thompson has what could have been his spot in the HoM.
8. Tommy Bridges (8, 7, 5, 3, 7) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
9. Bucky Walters (9, 8, 6, 4, 8) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
10. Orlando Cepeda (10, 9, 7, 5, 9) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
11. Norm Cash (11, 10, 8, 6, 10) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
12. Willie Randolph (----, 12) This is much higher than I would have placed Fox - but then Randolph was better than Fox. Basically, I like the OBP.
13. Lou Brock (13, 12, 10, 9, 13) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
14. Sal Bando (14, 13, 11, 10, 14) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
15. Bob Elliott (15, 14, 12, 11, 15) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
16. Tony Perez (16, 15, 13, 12, 16) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
17. Rusty Staub (17, 16, 14, 13, 17) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time. Not Frank Howard's peak, but some peak anyway.
18. Luis Tiant (18, 17, 15, 14, 18) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value.
19. Reggie Smith (19, 18, 16, 15, 19) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
20. Ken Singleton (23, 23, 21, 20, 24) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter.
21. Tommy John (-, 20, 18, 17, 21) RA+ Pythpat record of 281-244 with no big years. Compare to Tiant: the difference of 57-80 is pretty much a wash, and Tiant had some big years.
22. Darrell Porter (21, 21, 19, 18, 22) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
23. Jack Clark (----, 5) I overdid his case in his first year. See posts #101 and 104 on the 1999 discussion thread.
24. Graig Nettles (22, 22, 20, 19, 23) Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott.
So he goes behind Smith. And as for that peak: I like Hondo's better.
25. Ron Cey (25, 24, 22, 21, 25) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
26. Frank Howard (12, 11, 9, 8, 11) Finally came to grips with his lack of defense and comparison to the likes of Singleton and Clark - and he drops in my ratings.
27. Rollie Fingers (25, 25, 23, 22, 26) I'll do a more extensive reevaluation when we get to Gossage.
28. Gene Tenace (26, 26, 24, 23, 27) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)
29. Dick Redding (27, 27, 25, 24, 28)
30. Luis Aparicio (28, 28, 26, 25, 29) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.

All of the top-tenners belong to our long-term backlog. Yes, I know the arguments; no, I'm not accidentally overlooking anyone. One particular case: I supported Stovey over Browning long ago because he seemed much better at scoring runs; Browning was nothing special there.

Dale Murphy: A peak candidate with at first glance a really terrific 6-year run at the top. But inserting the park factor for Atlanta in those days takes some of the gloss off of it, and as a CF I have trouble lifting him clear of the likes of Wally Berger and Cesar Cedeno.

Frank Tanana: equivalent 245-220. I like him better than Kaat - but I'm not voting for Kaat, either.

The 1999 Ballot in Chaleekovision!!!!

1. George Brett: He and Yount are very, very close, but I slightly prefer Brett, though frankly it could go either way. It would be interesting to know how different his career totals might have been had he played in Yankee Stadium or Tigers Stadium.

2. Robin Yount: Must be among the most talented athletes to play baseball in the second half of the 20th century. Coulda been a golfer, developed from a raw talent to a fully realized one without benefit of minor league play, and had incredible instincts for every facet of the game, including the subtle art of baserunning. That’s a combination of great natural athletic talent, good coaching somewhere along the line, and an affinity for the game. In other words, a HOMer.

3. Carlton Fisk: Another year and he’d likely be a #1 ranked candidate, but as-is, he’s just a smidge behind Yount who is a smidge behind Brett. Fisk and Carter are a natural pair for comparison, and I’d probably just barely prefer Carter. Anyway, another easy-to-identify HOMer.

4. Wilbur Cooper: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

5. Alejandro Oms: These aren’t my numbers, by the way, which tells you that this vote is not just a Doc C special. An outstanding CFer of the 1920s in the NgLs and CWL. Oms may not have a superior peak (it’ll be a long time before we can assess that with a lot of certainty), but we know now that he had a ton of career value to go with enough peak that he’s a wonderful prime/career candidate.

6. Ken Singleton: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons.

7. Larry Doyle: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

8. Dave Stieb: Admittedly I’ve been an advocate for Stieb. But I think it’s warranted. He outshone the league during a difficult time to dominate, and he’s the best pitcher in the AL over long, meaningful stretches of time. I wish 1986 were better, but that’s life. You don’t get to pick when your off years happen. Even so, he had plenty left in the tank, and among eligible peak/prime pitchers, he’s a great choice for induction. I have him above Walters based on many of the small things discussed in the Stieb thread, however, I could just as easily have gone the other way on it.

9. Nolan Ryan: This should come as little shock to anyone, even though it does. Remember that I had Rixey and Ruffing and Lyons well down on my ballots of that time. I haven’t supported TJ or Kitty Kaat. Ryan’s a little better than all those guys, thus he’s a little higher than they were in rankings. He’s an obvious HOMer, just, for me, not as obvious as he might be for some others.

10. Bucky Walters: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

11. Elston Howard: After re-evaluation of his pre-MLB seasons, I think credit is only realistic for 1953-1954 at most. After adjusting for this, he drops back to just ahead of Tralee, not near as high as I had him previously.

12. Leroy Matlock: He’s back. Many years ago now I saw Matlock as the best available pitcher. My consensus scores plummeted…. But in reviewing NgL players, I looked back on his thread, and I don’t really understand why I lost my nerve on him. The MLEs look HOMable, even if you see that 1937 season as a little less than 43 WS. I think we’ve whiffed on him, and that someday when we’ve got more better information, he’ll be one of the “lost” guys that no one talked about who ends up as a HOMer.

13. Tommy Leach: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

14. Hugh Duffy: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a perfectly fine selection, but he’s certainly a borderliner.

15. Sal Bando: Same old, same old here. You’ve read my thoughts for ten years.


KNOWN UNKNOWNS
-Dale Murphy: Had he begun as a RF/CF/1B and not a C, I wonder whether he’d be in the 15 above. As it is, he came upon the cliff too quick, and so here he is in the dustbin of my view of history.

-Frank Tanana: Better than Jack Morris. Not as good as Luis Tiant. News at 11.


UNKNOWN KNOWNS
-Pete Browning: Just off my ballot, and I was probably wrong about his HOMiness previously.

-Rollie Fingers: I think we'll be overpopulating RP if we choose Fingers and Gossage from their era. Or just one of them?

-Jake Beckley: Can someone fill me in on this guy? I hear he’s a big-peak candidate; should I reconsider?

Sorry, I’m still in mourning…. ; )

-Dick Redding: I’m not a believer. Those 1920s numbers aren’t pretty. I’d encourage everyone to look back at them again. It’s not pretty at all, and he needs all of them to make it.

-Roger Bresnahan: More of a believer here. He’s probably a pHOM type player for me (I stopped figuring pHOMing a long time ago), but he’s not a high priority candidate in my queue.

-Bob Johnson: Or Bawb Jawnson as they said when he was in Boston. HOVG for me. Even if WS underrates them, is it enough to make up the difference? I don’t think so (though I could be wrong), so I’m not ready to snap him up.

The Beckley of catchers.

Gotta disagree, OCF. He was the best in the majors or AL too many times to conclude that he didn't have a peak, IMO.

15. Bob Elliott (15, 14, 12, 11, 15) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.

Dixie's big HOM moment. He's one up on Harry the Hat.


I wish 1986 were better, but that’s life.

One more win in 1985 or 1987 would be more useful.


2. Robin Yount: Must be among the most talented athletes to play baseball in the second half of the 20th century. Coulda been a golfer, developed from a raw talent to a fully realized one without benefit of minor league play, and had incredible instincts for every facet of the game,

another Michael Jordan --or Danny Ainge

Excuse the distractions. Serious comment on Wilbur Cooper in his thread.

Willie Randolph was a Very good player, great career value, I loved him as a player, but he's nowhere close to my top 15. He's down around Stieb somewhere on my rankings. Bresnahan is sitting at #23. Browning is at #18. Cannonball isn't remotely close.


1. George Brett - My all-time favorite player. I have had the pleasure of meeting him a few times from my childhood on up. I was always scared to meet him in my adult years as I didn't want him to ruin my childhood thoughts of him as a hero, but he has never let me down. :)

2. Robin Yount - Was never a Brewers fan, but was always a Yount fan.

3. Carlton Fisk - Brett, Yount, Fisk, Ryan...wow, what a class of players to vote on. I love catchers...I love Fisk

4. Nolan Ryan - overrated no doubt, but I believe he's still a smidge better than Sutton whom I am very high on, and that's nothing to be ashamed of. Both of course though are only career candidates.

5. Rollie Fingers - one of the top relievers of all time

6. Charley Jones - dominated, was unfairly blacklisted, then dominated again.

7. Gavy Cravath - he took advantage of a good situation and exploited it in a way that no one else did

8. Jim Rice - He and Cepeda are practically tied on my ballot

9. Orlando Cepeda - very consistent

10. Bucky Walters - just the right amount of peak to offset the lack of career value I typically require

11. Don Newcombe - give him credit for years missed, and he looks great.

12. Bus Clarkson - I'm willing to believe that I missed him and that he was a shade better than Stephens

13. Bruce Sutter - Gossage will be higher than him

14. Vern Stephens - power, perennial MVP threat, SS

15. Elston Howard - big gap between him and Fisk.

Bobby Veach
Chuck Klein
Pete Browning
Jack Quinn
Ernie Lombardi
Lefty Gomez
Johnny Pesky
Roger Bresnahan
Rocky Colavito
Dolf Luque

Gotta disagree, OCF. He was the best in the majors or AL too many times to conclude that he didn't have a peak, IMO.

As I pointed out in the Fisk thread, his 162 OPS+ in 1972 was, at the time, an AL record for catchers. It's still the fifth-best ever by any catcher, AL or NL.

PHoM: See the Top 3 on the ballot.

1. George Brett (new)

Top 5 3B ever?

2. Robin Yount (new)

Very close to #1.

3. Carlton Fisk (new)

Sometimes I think I undervalue catchers. Other times I think other people overvalue catchers. I don't think we will have a problem with this one.

4. Tony Perez (3,1,1)

Underrated.

5. George Van Haltren (4,6,4)

Long-time underrated.

6. Nolan Ryan (new)

Overrated but still very good and deserving.

7. Tommy Leach (8,9,7)

8. Willie Randolph (14,x,x)

He'll get in as soon as we have another backlog election I think.

9. Mickey Welch (7,12,9)

In the GVH camp of me hoping with little chace of success.

10. Rusty Staub (6,3,3)

11. Lou Brock (9,10,11)

12. Hugh Duffy (11,13,14)

13. Ken Singleton (13,x,x)

14. Graig Nettles (10,11,10)

15. Reggie Smith (15,14,15)

16-20. Cash, Johnson, Willis, Cepeda, Browning
21-25. Doyle, Bonds, Downing, S.Rice, Clark
26-20. Redding, Streeter, F.Howard, McCormick, Murphy

I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.

The top 4 on this ballot are overqualified for the HoM.

1. Brett – top 5 thirdbaseman.

2. Fisk – top 10 catcher. I originally had him 4th, but decided that he ranked noticeably higher within his position than Ryan or Yount.

3. Ryan – for this careerist, he is a top 25 pitcher. Could be as high as first, even on this ballot, but Brett was pretty good, and Brett just killed the Jays. Ryan had a nice Jay-killing moment too. From 1990 to 1999, my rotisserie team was called Da Ryn Express. It always had a low WHIP and a lot of Ks but didn't win as much as you'd want.

4. Yount – obviously over qualified, well well above Brock. Hard to place him as shortstop or an outfielder. If he had stayed at short, he might be #1 on this ballot.

5. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

6. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers. With Beckley elected, he is my last real Teddy Bear.

7. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

8. Tony Perez – this might be a bit high, but I am comfortable with it. 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

9. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

10. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Stieb, Kaat, Tanana, Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

11. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

12. Rollie Fingers – he is a real borderline closer for me. If he is still on the ballot in 2006, he might move down.

13. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat. No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.

14. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. It feels like a cop out putting four newbies on the bubble here, but I really like my first 9 candidates and really have no positive HoMie feeling for anyone below Rice. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

15. Dave Parker – I think he is very similar to Rice, but I like Rice’s peak better. Their career counting stats impress me.

Bresnahan is 17. Randolph is 22. Johnson is 41. Walters is in my top-70.

Since I have the highest consensus score at this point, I have decided to end the election as of right now.

;-)

A low-pressure ballot this week. More newly-eligible shoo-ins than elect-me slots. The grand debate returns next year.

1999 Ballot

1. George Brett -- Easily one of the top five 3B ever. With a little more durability he'd be giving Schmidt & Mathews a run for their money.
2. Carlton Fisk -- Long career with some great seasons speckled in there as well. Easy choice.
3. Robin Yount -- Monster SS peak with a solid echo CF-prime attached.
4. Nolan Ryan -- Another poster said Don Sutton with no-hitters (and K's)... not a bad way to describe him. Ryan would be a shoo-in first ballot most years, but this is a tough crowd this year.
5. Gavvy Cravath -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
6. John McGraw -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
7. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
8. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play. I don't know why his support hasn't held up.
9. Norm Cash -- Took another look at him. I'm like him better than Keith Hernandez.
10. Roger Bresnahan -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
11. Rollie Fingers -- Best reliever eligible.
12. Bob Elliott -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
13. Mickey Welch -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
14. Frank Chance -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
15. Frank Howard -- Gets a boost from the post-expansion re-eval. This guy could really mash.
16-20. CJones, Browning, Lombardi, Rosen, BJohnson,
21-25. Nettles, Leach, Bando, Cepeda, TJohn,
26-30. Randolph, Cey, Tiant, TPerez, Singleton,
31-35. Brock, Staub, Stieb, Walters, DMurphy, Kaat, Parker

well, John, since I only have 6 of your 15 on my provisional baallot, I should vote now and lower your consensus....

can I submit a legal ballot this election with only the top 4 listed? Twouldn't matter much, would it? :)

well, John, since I only have 6 of your 15 on my provisional baallot, I should vote now and lower your consensus....

Bah!

can I submit a legal ballot this election with only the top 4 listed? Twouldn't matter much, would it? :)

Well, it still wouldn't be legal, Tom, but you're right that it doesn't matter about the other 11. :-)

1999

Mostly based on Win Shares, OPS+ and ERA+ with a heavy peak/prime orientation.

1. George Brett (new, PHoM 1999)
2. Robin Yount (new, PHoM 1999)
3. Carlton Fisk (new, PHoM 1999)—one Inner Circle, two who are near the top of the next ring, all very easy choices, it sure seems that this is the right order….

4. Rollie Fingers (3-2-3, PHoM 1991)—there’s no uber-stat that says Fingers is ballot-worthy, but I go back to Chris Cobb’s old test—who do you want in the HoM? And on that simple basis, subjective as it is, I want the #3 reliever of all-time (as of 1995) in mine

5. Ed Williamson (6-7-11, PHoM 1924)—more peak and more glove than than almost any other IF; leapfrogs Browning and Jones due to lack of 3B in HoM

6. Pete Browning (4-3-4, PHoM 1961)

7. Addie Joss (7-4-5, PHoM 1967)—say what you will about Joss and Ryan—i.e. Joss not a workhorse, but no way was Ryan as effective except in the occasional 9 inning increment

8. Charley Jones (5-6-8, PHoM 1921)—Browning and Jones are a matched pair (how did Joss sneak in between them?), both have the numbers even with AA discount

9. Nolan Ryan (new)—the Ks and no-hitters made him a superstar, but they don’t translate into the things I value. IOW his peak is defined as basically 9 innings where I like 3 to 5 years. He is only a mid-ballot career candidate on WS and ERA+, not a peak candidate at all, and I’m not a career voter. Still, he goes here and will be PHoM someday.

10. Larry Doyle (9-10-10, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Ed Roush, maybe his defensive value is more like that of a corner, but he hit better than the backlog corners that remain from his day

11. Frank Howard (13-12-12, PHoM 1987)—see Cepeda at #18

12. Don Newcombe (14-15-19, PHoM 1997)—lost more opportunities than just about anybody since Bill Monroe, I see him basically as a guy who coulda been Robin Roberts

13. Gavvy Cravath (16-11-14, PHoM 1995)—see F. Howard at #11

14. Dick Redding (11-13-16, PHoM 1971)—one of the rare peak/career candidates with no real prime

15. Phil Rizzuto (12-9-9, PHoM 1995)—306 career WS with war credit

Dropped Out

16. Reggie Smith (8-5-7, PHoM 1988)—cannot quite see how he’s not better than Jim Wynn

17. Elston Howard (15-16-15, PHoM 1994)—see first part of Newcombe comment, clearly equal to Freehan in terms of ability

18. Orlando Cepeda (10-8-6, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard and Cravath, and this year, sure enough, I interchanged them

Close—i.e. right around in/out line, as I think we will elect another 11 or so backloggers before we’re done

19. Tommy Leach (17-17-20, PHoM 1998)
(19a. Joe Kelley [17a-23a-68a])
20. Johnny Pesky (19-28-29)

21. Ken Singleton (18-18-31)
22. Bus Clarkson (20-24-44)
(22a. Jimmy Sheckard [20a-21a-43a])
24. Alejandro Oms (21-25-33)
(24a. Quincy Trouppe [21a-17a-20a])
25. Vic Willis (25-22-60)
26. Al Rosen (22-23-23)
(26a. Dewey Evans [22a-19-new])

HoVVG

27. Dan Quisenberry (23-20-22)
28. Fred Dunlap (26-46-49)
(28a. Joe Sewell [26a-31a-32a])
29. Vern Stephens (27-45-41)
30. Roger Bresnahan (28-27-26)

31. Sal Bando (32-30-28)
32. Norm Cash (24-21-21)
33. Hugh Duffy (33-35-61)
(33a. Jim Bunning [33a-30a-30a])
34. Burleigh Grimes (29-26-25)
35. Eddie Cicotte (30-31-30)
36. Tony Perez (31-29-18)
37. Chuck Klein (34-42-39)
38. Bruce Sutter (38-34-32)
(38a. Don Sutton [38a-36a-35a])
(38b. Ken Boyer [38b-35a-34a])
39. Jake Beckley (39-36-59)
40. Ben Taylor (35-33-64)

41. Bob Johnson (36-41-52)
42. Bobby Bonds (40-37-43)
43. Bob Elliott (41-39-35)
44. Jack Clark (66-new)
45. Dizzy Dean (45-60-56)
46. Thurman Munson (46-43-38)
47. Hack Wilson (47-44-24)
48. Bucky Walters (48-52-48)
49. Dave Steib (42-new)
50. Lefty Gomez (43-38-36)

51. Rusty Staub (75-51-78)
52. Dick Lundy (50-55-55)
53. Tommy Bond (52-64-58, PHoM 1929)
54. Hilton Smith (53-59-54)
55. Pie Traynor (54-56-51)
56. Bobby Avila (51-101-121)
57. Luis Tiant (44-40-37)
(58a. Cool Papa Bell [48a-47a-49a])
58. Dave Parker (37-32-new)
59. Dale Murphy (new)
60. Bill Monroe (49-53-42)

61. Luke Easter (58-48-40)
62. Jim McCormick (59-67-75)
63. Dave Bancroft (60-62-57)
64. Tommy Bridges (55-50-47)
65. Willie Randolph (56-new)
66. George Van Haltren (57-47-77)
67. Wally Berger (61-66-46)
68. John McGraw (62-65-65)
69. Bobby Estalella (63-69-67)

HoVG

70. Graig Nettles (67-54-50)

71. Tommy John (68-81-81)
72. Frank Chance (69-57-66)
(72a. Wes Ferrell [69a-57a-53a])
73. Wilbur Cooper (71-77-73)
(73a. Pete Hill [71a-59a-68b])
74. Pedro Guerrero (64-new)
75. Mickey Welch (65-75-71)
76. Jim Rice (70-49-63)
77. Lou Brock (72-58-69)
(77a. Biz Mackey [75a-69a-64a])
78. Tony Mullane (76-83-83)
79. Gene Tenace (77-70-62)
80. Andy Cooper (78-110-117)

81. Mike Tiernan (73-92-99)
82. Cesar Cedeno (74-68-45)
83. Vada Pinson (81-72-72)
84. Pancho Coimbre (82-120-120)
85. Kiki Cuyler (83-63-101)
86. Tony Oliva (79-71-68)
87. Bill Byrd (80-118-118)
88. Rocky Colavito (87-73-70)
89. Fred Lynn (84-61-34)
90. Marvin Williams (88-76-74)

91. Gil Hodges (89-106-111)
92. John Clapp (90-78-84)
(92a. Billy Pierce (90a-78a-75a)
(92b. Early Wynn [90b-78b-76a)
93. Leroy Matlock (91-133-148)
94. Jimmy Ryan (92-79-79)
95. George Burns (93-82-82)
96. Dolf Luque (95-85-74)
97. Herman Long (96-86-87)
98. Urban Shocker (97-87-88)
99. Jim Fregosi (98-80-80)
100. Red Schoendienst (86-91-91)

Honorable Mention

101. Ron Cey (94-84-85)
102. Mickey Vernon (95-111-116)
103. Boog Powell (100-90-90)
104. Artie Wilson (104-95-95)
105. Bobby Veach (105-96-96)
106. Ernie Lombardi (99-86-86)
107. Dave Concepcion (102-88-76)
108. Tony Lazzeri (103-94-94)
109. Frank Tanana (new)
110. Carl Mays (110-102-102)

111. Bert Campaneris (101-89-89)
112. Luis Aparicio (112-93-93)
113. Steve Garvey (113-105-105)
114. Rabbit Maranville (114-107-107)
115. Joe Tinker (115-108-108)
116. Johnny Evers (116-109-109)
117. Wally Schang (106-97-97)
118. Jim Kaat (111-103-103)
119. Bobby Murcer (108-99-110)
120. Buddy Bell (109-100-100)

121. Jake Fournier (121-116-125)
122. Lon Warneke (122-117-126)
123. Ellis Kinder (123-104-104)
124. Amos Otis (124-121-127)
125. Spot Poles (117-112-112)
126. Al Oliver (118-113-113)
127. Cecil Travis (119-114-114)
128. Billy Nash (120-115-115)
129. Silvio Garcia (126-123-123)
130. Sol White (130-119-119)

131. Maury Wills (107-98-98)
132. Hippo Vaughan (127-124-124)
133. Denny Lyons (128-125-133)
134. Brian Downing (129-new)
135. George Scales (135-131-131)
136. Sam Rice (136-132-132)
137. Vida Blue (137-134-134)
(137a. Pud Galvin [137a-134a-134a])
138. Catfish Hunter (125-122-122)
139. Fielder Jones (139-136-136)
140. Dave Orr (140-126--140)

141. Jim Whitney (141-138-138)
142. Roy White (131-127-128)
143. Roger Maris (132-128-141)
144. Lave Cross (133-129-129)
145. Silver King (138-135-135)
146. Virgil Trucks (142-139-139)
147. Jim Creighton (143-140-145)
148. Ron Guidry (144-141-147)
149. Davey Lopes (145-137-137)
150. Ray Dandridge (150-143-143)

General Secretary JTM
(revised from Secretary, whose regional connotation is too variable)
Since I have the highest consensus score at this point, I have decided to end the election as of right now.

I noticed that Fisk garnered a #1 vote sooner than I expected he would, at T + 9 minutes.


Daryn:
I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

11. Pete Browning [. . .] Pete Browning [is the benefactor of benefits from --pgw] a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.
. . .
14. Jim Rice [. . .] It feels like a cop out putting four newbies on the bubble here, but I really like my first 9 candidates and really have no positive HoMie feeling for anyone below Rice.

You are the benefactor. Otherwise this quotation is only HOM fluff but you may want to revise it next year. It seems odd that Browning benefits ... you'd rather honour him, and Rice gives you positive HOMie feeling, but they are both listed below the sentence that labels them underserving.

Da Ryn Express - very good, presumably with "Ryn" pronounced as "Ryne"


David Foss:
I noticed that you posted your two basic HOM data files to the yahoogroups website. I made a "Graphs" folder (with bad 'net connection so it is still empty) and it now occurs to me that "HOM Data and Graphs" or "HOM Election features" would be more useful.)

7. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.

John Tortes Chief Meyers has an equal claim. As for Doyle, an extraordinary strong batter sometimes criticized as a weak fielder at an important position (catcher). MVP? In the Chalmers vote Meyers 10-3-5 and Doyle 3-1-17. Fielding stars Buck Herzog and Art Fletcher entered the lineup only in 1912, George J. Burns only in 1913 and not yet the Geo who garners votes here.

Meyers is prominent in Jeffrey Powers-Beck's book, The American Indian Integration of Baseball.

Only with Project Muse access you can read more than the first 250 words of this article.
Powers-Beck 2001 article, "Chief": The American Indian Integration of Baseball

This review of the book is organized as a sketch of its contents.
Sports Literature Association review of Powers-Beck 2005 book

1999 ballot
Brett, Ryan and Fisk make my PHOM this year


1 George Brett better then Schmidt (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. Nolan Ryan so overrated he now underrated (makes my personal HoM this year)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Carlton Fisk this is more about Traynor then him (makes my personal HoM this year)
5. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
6. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
7. Robin Yount lack a sustained peak
8. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
9. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
11. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
12. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
13. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
14. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
15. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1994)
16. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
17. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1995)
18. Rollie Fingers best HoF speech ever (made my personal HoM in 1991)
19. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
20. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
21. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
22. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
23. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
24. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
25. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
26. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Bill Mazeroski 2nd greatest (fielding) 2nd baseman (McPhee‘s 1) ever (made my personal HoM in 1985)
29. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1985)
30. Dave Parker would be higher with out his extra credit (made my personal HoM in 1997)
31. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
32. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1985)
33. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1967)
34. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1967)
35. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
36. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
37. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1994)
38. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
39. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
40. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
41. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
42. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
43. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
44. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
45. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
46. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)
47. Buddy Myer 1935 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1996)
48. Cecil Cooper most rbi twice (made my personal HoM in 1997)
49. George H. Burns most hits twice gets PCL credit (made my personal HoM in 1998)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Charley Jones no black list points
Willie Randolph needs more peak could possibly make my pHoM one day but it would probly be in (real) years time
Tony Perez needs more of a peak to meet with his career
Bucky Walters would have been in my pHoM with out WWII adjustments as he is he’s still close to it
Roger Bresnahan played to much outfield
Bob Johnson with out WWII adjustments is borderline with them he’s quite a bit lower

General Secretary JTM
(revised from Secretary, whose regional connotation is too variable)

I don't care about the title, Paul. What I really want to know is do I finally make a few cents off of this project? ;-)

Since I have the highest consensus score at this point, I have decided to end the election as of right now.

I noticed that Fisk garnered a #1 vote sooner than I expected he would, at T + 9 minutes.

See, I'm in the minority about Pudge, yet I'm still Mr. Consensus (for the time being, that is :-)

9. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier

I doubt Rice would be any higher up in the tally among HoM voters if he had made 3,000 hits, yest.

Now, he may have made the HOF a little bit earlier, because they're silly that way.

1. George Brett (new) Easily the #3 3rd baseman, behind Schmidt and Mathews, eligible so far. (I haven't yet looked at Boggs.) In 1979 Brett's extra-base hit line was 42-20-23. As far as I know, that's the only case of 20 of each kind of extra base hit, although attempts to quantify that combination with a "Brett number" combining the three categories does turn up some other years, including Gehrig 1927 (52-18-47).

There have been a few players to do it - Mays did it in 1957, for example, and Jeff Health and Jim Bottomly did it as well. There might be others. When Brett accomplished it in 1979, it was thought of as a big deal, and there was a lot of commentary about how he was the first player to do it since Mays. I was coming of age as a baseball fan in the late 70's, and so I have a more distinct memory of those years than anything since. I wonder if that's true for other fans.

Late 1970s mostly an alcohol-induced blur. On the other hand, here (without looking it up!) is the batting order for the England cricket team for the first Test against Australia at Edgbaston, 1961:

G. Pullar
R. Subba Row
E.R. Dexter
M.C. Cowdrey
G. Barrington
M.J.K. Smith
J.T. Murray
R. Illingworth
D.A. Allen
F.S. Trueman
J.B. Statham

Baseball Chick Killed Doug Pappas

That's pretty distasteful on a number of levels.

That's pretty distasteful on a number of levels.

Agreed.

9. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier

I doubt Rice would be any higher up in the tally among HoM voters if he had made 3,000 hits, yest.

Now, he may have made the HOF a little bit earlier, because they're silly that way.

John he was 27 when he started give him 5 more seasons (not that I do) he would make all the career lovers ballot.

1999

1. George Brett (-)--He’s great.

2. Robin Yount (-)--Him too.

3. Carlton Fisk (-)--Him three.

4. Nolan Ryan (-)--Him four. Better than I expected, actually.

5. Pete Browning (3)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

6. Charley Jones (4)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

7. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

8. John McGraw (6)--Big jump up for McGraw, as I schedule adjust his WARP1 values and his peak moves into line with what I actually though it was, instead of being even with Nellie Fox’s. He’s got the best non-Browning peak on the ballot, but still a shortage of career value. (1997)

9. Larry Doyle (7)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

10. Hugh Duffy (8)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

11. George Van Haltren (9)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

12. Dave Stieb (10)--Great prime but a little short on the career end leaves him in the bottom half of the ballot. But he’s a clear HOMer to me.

13. Alejandro Oms (11)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

14. Dale Murphy (-)--A great prime with a decent career value despite the decline phase. Fits in well with these broderline outfielders.

15. Ken Singleton (12)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

16. Bobby Bonds (13)
17. Frank Howard (14)
(Darrell Evans)
(Billy Pierce)
(Nellie Fox)
(Quincey Trouppe)
18. Luis Tiant (15)
19. Graig Nettles (16)
20. Willie Randolph (17)
21. Rollie Fingers (18)
22. Dave Parker (19)
23. Sal Bando (20)
24. Wally Berger (21)
25. Carl Mays (22)
26. Mike Tiernan (23)
27. Cesar Cedeno (24)
28. George Foster (25)
29. Dick Redding (26)
30. Dave Concepcion (27)
31. Ed Williamson (28)
(Dobie Moore)
32. Tony Perez (29)
33. Rusty Staub (30)
34. Vada Pinson (31)
35. Dan Quisenberry (32)
36. Ron Cey (33)
37. Norm Cash (34)
38. Rick Reuschel (35)
39. Bruce Sutter (36)
40. Bobby Murcer (37)
41. Orlando Cepeda (38)
(Red Faber)
42. Buddy Bell (39)
43. Bucky Walters (40)
44. Vern Stephens (41)
45. Roger Bresnahan (42)
46. Lou Brock (43)
47. Dave Bancroft (44)
48. Jimmy Ryan (45)
49. Rabbit Maranville (46)
50. Tony Lazzeri (47)

On the other hand, here (without looking it up!) is the batting order for the England cricket team for the first Test against Australia at Edgbaston, 1961

Either I missed the impetus for this lineup earlier in the thread, or we've got a winner for HOM Nonsequitarian Post of the Calendar Year 2007.

Either I missed the impetus for this lineup earlier in the thread, or we've got a winner for HOM Nonsequitarian Post of the Calendar Year 2007.

I think the impetus was Dizzypaco's last two sentences of the previous post.

I forgot an important piece of information on my ballot.

Dan Gladden: May have started for the Twins, but is merely the 4th OF on the All Infinitive Verb Form Team:

C: Earl Grace (or John Clapp if you'll allow it...catcher is bereft of such names)
1B: Joe Start
2B: Frank Grant
3B: Stan Hack
SS: Monte Ward
LF: George Foster
CF: George Gore
RF: Elmer Flick
DH v LHP: Tommy Leach
DH v RHP: Norm Cash
4th OF: Dan Gladden
-----------------
SP: Ray Brown
SP: 3-F Brown
SP: Rube Foster
SP: whtiey Ford
SP: Tommy Bond
RP: Mike Marshall
RP: Doug Jones
RP: Roy Face

Ah, that's better.

Jones? Could you use that in a sentence, please?

John he was 27 when he started give him 5 more seasons (not that I do) he would make all the career lovers ballot.

He actually got his break with the Senators when he was 25.

He definitely deserves WWI credit, but beyond that, I have no idea.

I am jonesing for a new discussion thread.

Jones is not in Websters, admittedly, but it seems to me it is in common usage in two forms.

1. N: A deep and insidious craving esp for but not restricted to illicit narcotics. 2. An addiction. 3. A craving like that of an addict.

Example (from "Little Child Runnin' Wild" on Curtis Mayfield's Superfly record):
I got a jones / Runnin' through ma' bones / I'm sorry son / All your money's gone // Painful rip / In my upper hip / I guess it's time / To take another trip

More at http://www.yaelf.com/slang.shtml.

This primary definition appears to have more recently led to...

2. V (intransitive always followed by the preposition for as best I can tell): to be in the state of havign an especially deep and insidious craving esp for but not restricted to illicit narcotics, as an addict would.

Example (from the headline of a 1999 Salon.com column by Liz Krieger) Jonesing for my Coke High.
More information on this usage at http://www.slangcity.com/email_archive/9_23_2004.htm.

More general info at http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=jones

or at http://esa4.rice.edu/~ling215/browse.php?l=j

Well, but you said they were verbs and the verb form appears to be Jonesing or more properly Jonesing For. So you need a new fella to round out your pitching staff.

Also, does Ward work? Can you use it without Off? Similar to the proper verb form of Jack, for example.

I expect better from you, young man, especially here at the GrammarThinkFactory.

PS. Is the present discussion what Dan had in mind when he mentioned a "malaise"?

PS. Is the present discussion what Dan had in mind when he mentioned a "malaise"?

We have always had silly discussions like this in the past. Even participated in a few of them.

Sunny2,

Re Ward/off:

Websters 10th (sorry, I'm not with the 11th yet) has several definitions, including these:

vt: to watch; to turn aside

And with this usage note: usu used with off.

Therefore, I think it's fine to list ward as its own inifinitive form, and that's the precedent under which jones also operates. In fact, the second SS on this team is Herman Long, who would make further use of this precedent since long is typically used with for as well.

It's possible, however, that I misspoke regarding whether jones would be a transitive or intransitive verb. If ward is transitive, then it's possible jones is too.

This is the transformation grammar ballot thread, right?

"RP: Doug Jones"

I think if "Jones" counts, then I submit Rollie Fingers, Joe Page, Eric Plunk, Bob Walk, Lave Cross, Joe Tinker, Ernie Banks, Billy Pierce and Johnny Bench for consideration.

I would delete the "baseball chick" references here, pronto (including this one).
On another thread on BTF the other day, I believe she noted that she wished she had warned Doug about where he was camping, in terms of the heat, on the fateful day.

My hunch is that someone wanted to do a one-time, questionable wisecrack by changing his screen name - then forgot about it. So now it comes up again when he posts elsewhere, like here.

Time to remove.

Page, Walk, Cross, Tinker, I see as viable, though in each case, I found others who I thought were more All-Starrish than they. Banks is the present, not infinitive, form, ditto fingers, and so are not viable members of the team.

I totally whiffed on Pierce.

I wasn't sure at the time whether bench had enough common usage to merit it's inclusion since it is only usually used in a sports context, and...I hadn't thought to look him up. Duh. I just did look him up, and, indeed, Websters has a few definitions of the verb form (to furnish with benches, to bench a player, to exhibit dogs or cats to the public on a bench---as to the last, WTF???). I therefore stand corrected on the matter of this team's catcher.

C: Johnny Bench
1B: Joe Start
2B: Frank Grant
3B: Stan Hack
SS: Monte Ward
LF: George Foster
CF: George Gore
RF: Elmer Flick
DH v LHP: Tommy Leach
DH v RHP: Norm Cash
4th OF: Dan Gladden
UT IF: Herman Long
UT IF: Joe Tinker
Backup C: Lave Cross
-----------------
SP: Ray Brown
SP: 3-F Brown
SP: Rube Foster
SP: Whitey Ford
SP: Billy Pierce
Swingman: Tommy Bond
RP: Mike Marshall
RP: Doug Jones
RP: Roy Face
RP: Joe Page

Time to remove.

It would probably be better if the poster changed his/her handle back, since the posts that were made were actually good ones.

I'll see about doing this pronto.

1999 ballot - our 102nd

I had last year's electees Carter-Blyleven-Beckley at 2-1-8 on my ballot. An unusually high number of my old-time favorites have been elected, so modern candidates will do fairly well on my ballot in some years.

Am I the only guy to be more impressed by Brett upon close review, and less impressed by the other 3? Granting that these are all easy HOMers.

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

1. GEORGE BRETT - Wow, 9 OPS+s of 140 or better while playing the hot corner. So remarkable that I checked him against Schmidt - ok, memo to self that Schmidt is other-worldly. Does he beat Mathews as a hitter? With playing-time consideration, maybe not. But that just shows you how incredible Mathews was, not even the slightest knock on Brett. He's in the conversation, which is amazing. 10 top 10s in adj OPS+, including 3 'gold medals.'
2. CARLTON FISK - I was prepared to be more dazzled. Easy HOMer, of course. But I was surprised that he didn't do much better in my system than Carter. Fisk also wasn't the hitter that TSimmons was, though he was a better player overall. Amazing bounceback at age 40-42, albeit without his old marathon playing time. Caught a silly 305 total G in 1977-78, and lived to tell about it.
3. ROBIN YOUNT - 1479 G at SS by age 28 - and never played another game there. Historically great in 1982-83, awakened the echoes in 1989 a bit. Mediocre at best in his last 4 seasons, a little better than that in his first 5 seasons.

4. NOLAN RYAN - Aside from Ryan's monster 1981 (in 149 strike-shortened IP), Blyleven out-ERA+s him in years in EACH of the next 16 seasons of 100+ ERA+. Wow, and Blyleven has a double-digit edge 5 times. Blyleven was also MORE durable relative to his era than Ryan, such as 6 top 5 IP finishes to 3 for Ryan, for example. Strikeouts are irrelevant in looking backwards - doesn't matter how you did it, it's what you did. What Ryan did is about what Blyleven did, slightly less in fact.
5. DAVE STIEB - Who knew that Ryan was better than Stieb not by peak or prime - so that he needed 'career' to win the day? Ryan has more of the durable seasons, and a half-dozen 100-110 ERA+s of an edge on Stieb. Not as massive a gap here as others may perceive. I have Stieb's best 6-7 years right at the Bunning-Pierce level, which is HOM-endorsed both by me and by the electorate. See Stieb's thread for my comments on why he is better than Bridges.
6. ROLLIE FINGERS - Yes, a devilish career to evaluate. So how does he wind up maintaining a solid ballot slot? He has many pluses: nine seasons with 100 relief IP (Rivera has one, when he was a setup man). He won about 100 games in relief not as a vulture, but as a guy pitching when it mattered most. For those dazzled by modern save totals, realize that Fingers was in the top 4 in his league in SVs 11 times (to 8 for Sutter and 7 for Rivera). Sutter pitched more than 107 IP once - Fingers did that 10 consecutive years. Sutter's peak is higher, for sure. But Fingers had a couple of other-worldly years, too. But most of all, what wins Fingers this slot is his inherited-runner numbers (and bonus World Series heroics). Fingers' teams just kept winning games he pitched for them - often he'd win himself, and often he'd save the day with runners on. In some way, I think Fingers was SO good in the 'clutch' for so long that it seems like he was not just getting lucky over and over again. Either way, the results were of immense value.
7. PETE BROWNING - Stubbornly holding on. Look at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This lousy fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not as much as some think; it was a different game then.
8. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over an endless span. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition, so I discount that a bit. But has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
9. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
10. JACK CLARK - I never knew Bob Johnson had a grandson who played in the bigs, lol. Main difference is a slightly, just slightly, better rate for JClark, but Johnson was more durable. With Johnson boosted a bit by war years, it's almost a damn coin flip. Clark was a better hitter than the revived Cepeda.
11. BOB ELLIOTT - Bob helps me from being TOO far ahead of the consensus pack, lol. If you haven't examined him in a while - or ever - get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B. Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out HOMer Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see DaEvans thread).
12. ROGER BRESNAHAN - Back on the ballot last year after a long drought. Was discarded long ago when I liked many careers better; a fresh look against this pack is enlightening. C and CF combo is fascinating; seems like he was an outstanding all-around player. Just wish he had one more big year, but I can say that about most of the ballot.
13. WILLIE RANDOLPH - I like Willie a little more than Nellie Fox; this is a tougher ballot to crack. Remarkably had NINE seasons with a 100 to 107 OPS+, which combined with slick 2B fielding is quite a valuable player. Also cleared 120 OPS+ three times, which is outstanding with this fielding/position. Not sure he's a HOMer, but will likely find a home on this ballot annually.
14. DAVE BANCROFT - Not sure if I ever voted for him before last year. But look at the prime: fantastic fielder at SS, with OPS+s of 120-19-19-09-09-09-04. Won a fresh 3-way evaluation vs Fox and Concepcion a year ago. Similar to Randolph, but an SS, so maybe Bancroft gets the nod next time.
15. VIC WILLIS - Won a recent SP bakeoff with Grimes and Walters, with slightly more career than Walters and better peak than Grimes. But boy it's close!

JUST MISSED
ORLANDO CEPEDA - Yet another guy back from the dead who suddenly popped up on my ballot last year with the reevaluation, and hit No. 16 this year. Had been losing out to Perez with positional consideration, but closer look shows a sterling top-4 and top-10 offensive line. DH opportunity added nothing to his case.
FRANK HOWARD - I had forgotten how spectacular his peak was, and his career tally - 142 OPS+ in nearly 8000 PA. Yes, he suffers due to defense - he could make a case for ranking No. 1 if he could field! Best-3 seasons - 177-70-70 in 1968-70, with almost 2100 PA total - make these other guys look like banjo hitters.
REGGIE SMITH - Climbs back to my 'just missed' pile after noticing how similar he is to Jack Clark. Yes, a lot of CF, so maybe with further review he battles onto the ballot after all.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
DAVE CONCEPCION - Peak is as good or better than Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. Similar case to Bancroft, whose prime I preferred this year to Concepcion's length.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
RON CEY - I have him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting. Talk me into voting for him.
GRAIG NETTLES - Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78.

AMONG THE TOP 10 RETURNEES, BUT I'M NOT VOTING FOR THEM
BUCKY WALTERS - Got the runnerup slot in the SP bakeoff - for a year, anyway. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from Welch on occasion. No full penalty for the great defense, but it's an issue. Qualifies as "Just missed" as well, ahead of Grimes.
HUGH DUFFY - Perhaps Win Shares' most embarrassing error. The Roger Maris of the turn of the century - wait, Roger had TWO great seasons and was a good fielder, too.
GAVY CRAVATH - Hurt by reconsideration of Baker Bowl - sure he smartly took advantage, but others didn't have that opportunity. He has some Rice in him. But I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough early on - much less that they were right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. May return to my ballot.
CHARLEY JONES - Some sympathy for the contract issues, but it's just not the same as going to war or being the 'wrong' skin color. Therefore, I see his career as too short.

NEWBIES
DALE MURPHY - Most similar to Bonds and Cedeno - nice 6-7 year body of work, but a quick drop off the table. You need a higher peak, a longer prime, or at least an endless career to compete in OF here these days.
FRANK TANANA - Flopped in a bakeoff with Tiant - who I still look at - and TJohn - who I don't. Completed his 14th consecutive game on his 24th birthday, and coincidentally was never the same pitcher after that. Allowed a hit to Minnie Minoso, yet was a teammate of Jeff Kent.

8. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over an endless span. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner.
10. JACK CLARK - I never knew Bob Johnson had a grandson who played in the bigs, lol.

Wow.
Bob Johnson : unusually consistent batting rate at a high level
and an "every day player" "every year"(*)

500+ plate appearances literally every one of his 13 seasons with 593-664 pa 11 times
138+ games in 12 of 13 seasons.

(*) 138/154 < 0.90 and his team did play 154 games
It's convenient, although arithmetically slighly generous to the old timers, to consider 8, 16, 24, and 32 games as 5%, 10, 15, and 20% of either a 154- or a 162-game season. Use 7 instead of 8 games for 140- and 132-game seasons.

0.90?
plays 90% of team games "every year"
I wrote that, then revised it.

1999 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. Small credit for pitcher “peak”, none for hitters. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot


1- George Brett {new}
hut
2- Robin Yount {new}
two
3- Carlton Fisk {new}
three
4- Nolan Ryan {new}
four!
Jake Beckley + pizzaz & flashiness + even more career length = Nolan Ryan
Lack of great peak or prime relegates him to 4th place.

5- Willie Randolph (3) [5]
Nellie Fox plus many walks and a few extra years, minus some durability.
6- John McGraw (5) [33]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base.
7- Roger Bresnahan (8) [9]
Best catcher of his era. Position flexibility not a minus.
8- Bob Johnson (9) [10]
Very good long prime; clearly better over a dozen year stretch than our other backlog OFers. One very good MinorLg year of credit also.
9- Reggie Smith (10) [29]
Has no one measure on which to hang his candidacy. Too fragile for peak (big seasons) voters, not long enough career for career voters. But guys, he won lots of games for his teams. Lots. More than all of the men below him.
10- Bucky Walters (6) [7]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit real well too. Dropped a bit this ballot; I hadn’t fully deducted for large # of unearned runs.
11- George Van Haltren (11) [18]
Speed and on-base skills made him very valuable in his day. Add in a long career, including pitching, and you get a HoMer.
12- Frank Chance (7) [60]
A great player on great teams. <u>Better hitter than Gavy Cravath AND Charley Jones.</u> Dropped a bit as I un-credited him with some ‘stuck on bench’ time prior to 1903.
13- Rollie Fingers (13) [8]
Post-season credit and inherited runners stranded get him on the ballot.
14- Dick Redding (12) [4]
Comes out better by anecdotes than by MLEs.
15- Luis Tiant (14) [36]
Small bonuses for few unearned runs and great post-season stats. I still need to do a Stieb-Tiant-Reuschel smackdown.


Bill Monroe gets bumped.

****** Other Newbies:

Dale Murphy – another year or two of greatness woulda been helpful

Frank Tanana – what does Frank Tanana have to do with this ballot?

***** Returning top 10 disclosures:

Pete Browning – cover up his seasons before age 25, when he was in a very weak AA, and he looks like Babe Herman. Do we want to elect a guy based on dominating a minor league? Van Haltren had as good an offensive career from age 25 on, and was better with the glove.

PS. Is the present discussion what Dan had in mind when he mentioned a "malaise"?

It's one of those conditions that, if you even think you might have it, then you do. |^(

I'll look at that next 'year,' Paul.

Johnson played during the war and before integration, of course. Lots of factors.

All the OFs are close.

Frank Chance-Better hitter than Gavy Cravath AND Charley Jones

Dale Murphy – another year or two of greatness woulda been helpful

Same ballot. While I do recognize why Tom is saying this, I can't help but think that Murphy is, essentially, this same kind of guy. I mean, a year or two of greatness would have been helpful to all three of the previously mentioned players. And if you also consider the ideas that DanR is putting forth (namely that the 1980s were more difficult to dominate than these guys' times), it becomes an interesting little puzzle. No answer coming from me, of course, just curiosity.

[Tom, I'm not really challenging your ballot or picking on you.]

Howie, I agree. Merely I'm shocked to read that Jack Clark is the grandson of Bob Johnson!
--

Eric Chalek:
> Frank Chance-Better hitter than Gavy Cravath AND Charley Jones

> Dale Murphy – another year or two of greatness woulda been helpful

Same ballot. While I do recognize why Tom is saying this, I can't help but think that Murphy is, essentially, this same kind of guy

What Tom says of Dale Murphy is true of many many players, for many many observers. (For these players there are also some observers who accomplished enough in the major leagues; another year or two of greatness would put them in the second circle, the "small hall" that admits about 14 players per decade --8 fielders, 3 pitchers, and 3 unrestricted.)

What Chance has in common with Jones and Cravath (and Keller), distinguishing them all from Dale Murphy, is a few or a dozen supporters who say yes, his mlb career is a couple of great years short, but there is a good case to grant him a couple of years (for this HOM election purpose). Jones, the blacklist; Cravath, trapped in the minors --his strong supporters grant him several great years, not only a couple; Chance, the stubborn and destructive misuse as a catcher (whose magnitude Tom recently revised downward); Keller, the war and perhaps one year in the minors.

Some have suggested further recognition of these players, Jones's coming a long cultural distance from the South (answered by Cliff Blau); Keller's unfortunate physical damage (argument generally deprecated, compare Joss, Sisler, Travis); Chance's focus on managing the team, too often from the sidelines (argument unconstitutional, compare Bresnahan, maybe Cravath); Leever's years as a school teacher (argument generally deprecated).

As far as I know, for granting him the couple of years Dale Murphy doesn't have so much as anyone's misinformed (Jones), deprecated (Keller), or unconstitutional (Chance) argument of the latter paragraph. He has only the few or the dozens --we don't yet know how many-- who think he "accomplished enough in the major leagues; another year or two of greatness would put them in the second circle."

I don't say Dale Murphy doesn't belong. For Cooperstown I think he should be a borderline candidate like Kirby Puckett, both with support comparable what Andre Dawson is getting, rather than Murphy a non-candidate who may linger on the ballot. Let the campaigns and debates run for a few years, as for Sutter Gossage and Smith.

Oops, that is way too much for the ballot thread.

1999 ballot:

1. George Brett, 3b
2. Carlton Fisk, c
3. Robin Yount, ss/cf
4. Nolan Ryan, sp
They’re all incredibly qualified. I think Brett’s the clear #1, but I could make a case for Fisk. I can’t do that for the other two.

5. Rollie Fingers, rp: 3rd best reliever to date, behind Wilhelm & Gossage. (eligible & PHOM 1991)

6. Roger Bresnahan, c: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

7. Lou Brock, lf: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985)

8. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

9. Willie Randolph, 2b: If you liked Fox, and I did, you probably like Randolph. Better bat, slightly worse glove by James-grade, similar WS, better WARP.

10. Bobby Bonds, rf: 5-tool outfielder. Had the speed and skill to play center, at least early on, but the Giants had some other guy there already. (eligible 1987, PHOM 1996)

11. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Has the peak/prime edge over Perez and Cash, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980, PHOM 1996)

12. Bruce Sutter, rp: Terrific ERA+ and incredible WS rate. Established the mold for the modern closer, but wasn’t confined to the 1-inning regimen. Career’s a bit short. (eligible 1994)

13. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. Too many bad seasons have ruined his chances. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

14. Dale Murphy, cf: I’m not crazy about him, just less crazy about the rest of the fringe outfielders kicking around. (eligible 1999)

15. Phil Rizzuto, ss: I’d like a little more peak, but with credit for the missing years, he’s got the career value. Great defense, infield anchor for a bunch of pennant winners. (eligible 1962)


Required comments:
Pete Browning, cf: In my PHOM (’27), and I now think that was a mistake (Beckley wasn’t). Monster hitter, monstrous on defense. That he was dominant despite in-season durability problems says a bit about the league.
Dick Redding, sp: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. HOF vote still bothers me a bit; he’d be higher if it didn’t. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)
Bucky Walters, sp: If I were making a staff of the current eligibles, he’d be a fringe candidate to make it.
Bob Johnson, lf: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the top outfielders in his league almost every year. 15th last year, new guys drive him off. In jeopardy, there’s nothing exciting there. (eligible 1951)

PHOM
George Brett
Robin Yount
Carlton Fisk

1999 Ballot
1. George Brett - Elected PHOM in 1999.
2. Robin Yount - Elected PHOM in 1999.
3. Carlton Fisk - Elected PHOM in 1999.
4. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
5. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
6. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
7. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
8. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
9. Nolan Ryan - Much better than Sutton.
10. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
11. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
12. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
13. Ed Williamson – I’ll take him over Boyer. Elected PHOM in 1958
14. Ken Singleton – Jumps onto ballot after I adjust for the DH. Elected PHOM in 1997.
15. Dizzy Dean – Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.

Required Disclosures
Bresnahan and Fingers just miss my ballot.
Randolph Being a Yankee fan, I really like Randolph. Class act all the way. However, he's not good enough to make my ballot.
Johnson I give him some credit for being on crappy teams, but I like a little more peak from my corner OFers

New candidates
Dale Murphy Not too far behind Roush, in line to make my PHOM.

Off the ballot
16-20 EHoward,Cravath,Sutter,Fingers,Munson
21-25 Stieb,Bresnahan,Newcombe,(Waddell),(Carey)
26-30 Leach,DwEvans,Murphy,(Rixey),Easter
31-35 Bond,Rosen,(Medwick),(BRobinson),(Ashburn)
36-40 Matlock,Mays,Monroe,Rizzuto,(DSutton)
41-45 (Gordon),Nettles,WCooper,(Terry),Elliott
46-50 Johnson,(Fox),Traynor,(Boyer),(Faber)
51-55 Randolph,Scales,Shocker,(Doerr),HSmith
56-60 FHoward,Bando,BBell,MWilliams,Doyle
61-65 FJones,Perez,Cey,HWilson,Van Haltren
66-70 JRyan,Schang,McGraw,AWilson,RSmith
71-75 Cepeda,Bancroft,Clarkson,(Sewell),Stephens
76-80 (Pierce),Poles,Winters,Mullane,ACooper
81-85 DDiMaggio,Berger,Burns,Lynn,Taylor
86-90 Parker,Tiernan,(Thompson),JRice,Pinson
91-95 Cedeno,Pesky,Chance,Cash,Fournier
96-100 Brock,Bonds,JClark,Lundy,McCormick

1999 ballot from this career voter (low replacement level):

1. George Brett - 2nd greatest third baseman ever
2. Robin Yount - quite a gap to Yount, a fully deserving HOMer
3. Carlton Fisk - top 10 all-time catcher
4. Nolan Ryan - very high career value; I value strikeouts
5. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
6. Graig Nettles - super fielder; I am surprised by his lack of support
7. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/minor lg credit)
8. Willie Randolph - very good fielder and solid hitter
9. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career
10. Tony Perez - good career though he was barely an adequate 3B defensively
11. Bob Elliott - good 3B mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
12. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct, with minor league and wwii credit
13. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career (similar to Perez)
14. Charley Jones - great player, with lockout credit
15. Reggie Smith - boost from center field play and japan
----------
16-20 CKlein, RMaranville, HWilson, PTraynor, BClarkson

Not voting for Walters (around 100th), Redding (around 50th), Browning (around 100th), Fingers (around 50th), and Bresnahan (around 100th).

(1) Brett (new)-- Not quite as good as I thought, as he missed too many games. Still a top third of the HoM player.

(2) Yount (new)-- The next three are very close, all middle third of the HoM. Yount's career has a lot of fluff, but the best seasons are great and the bulk is there.

(3) Fisk (new)-- Was a barely over the line HoMer and then tacked on one of the greatest career codas in the history of the game.

(4) Ryan (new)-- So overrated, he's underrated. Easy HOMer based on career value, peak with Angels, and high-rate low-inning seasons later in his career.

(5) Bridges (3rd)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. I have him with 8 truly excellent seasons--no pitcher outside the HoM has more. I never thought he'd get this high on the ballot, but I see no reason to jump him just b/c/ he's now in an elect-me spot.

(6) Oms (4th)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up. Moved way up as others slide down the ballot. His case has no holes.

(7) Cash (5th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot. Dan's study costs him a few points based on the ease of dominance in the 1960s AL, but others droped too. A lot like Hernandez, only in a substantially weaker league.

(8) Reggie Smith (6th)--Very similar on all dimensions to Cash and Wynn; similar offensively to Roush and Johnson. A bit more consistent than Wynn. More career value than Dale Murphy in a similar opportunity context.

(9) Leach (7th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. A lot like Darrell Evans, only with contemporary reports that match his stellar defensive numbers.

(10) Dave Stieb (9th)--Best pitcher in the game briefly; lots of quality in a relatively few number of innings. As you can tell by my rankings of Bridges and Shocker, I like this profile better than most.

(11) Urban Shocker (10th)--Joe makes his case well. He didn't pitch a ton of innings or a ton of years but--when you combine durability and quality and adjust for defense--he was one of the best handful of pitchers in the game for a decade. A lot like Tommy Bridges or Dave Stieb.

(12) Bob Johnson (8th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no major knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position. Since his era and position are already well-represented and he doesn't have a great peak, he losses the most with Dan's numbers, but I still find him worthy. Drops behind the two above b/c/ I'm uncomfortable with all the OF's.

(13) Elliot (12th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer. Nettles, Bell, Bando, and Cey are also similar, but the glut of 3B in the 1970's suggests that something was different then than when Elliot (and perhaps Boyer) were playing.

(14) Rollie Fingers (13th)--When you make adjustments for leverage and postseason performance he is right in the mix with Shocker.

(15) Ben Taylor (14th)--I missed the boat on him. I had him comped to Konetchy and, therefore, outside the top 50. But (1) I had Konetchy too low and (2) his offense was one rung better than Ed's. As a result, he is much closer to Hernandez or Cash. Might deserve to rank higher.

Next twenty: Cravath (15th), Dale Murphy (a seventh elite season would have moved him mid-ballot), Chance, Duffy, Bancroft, Cepeda, Charley Jones, Bresnahan (a little behind Chance), Van Haltren, Perez, Rizzuto, Staub, Schang, Bonds, Grimes, Cey, John, Singleton, Stephens, E. Howard.

When you adjust Browning for league quality, you get a guy with a mid 140's OPS+ and roughly 9-plus years of playing time with limited defensive value. I have him somewhere around 55th.

Dick Redding is in the category of Negroe Leaguers whose numbers don't back up their reputations. He doesn't crack my top 60.

Bucky Walters is ok, but his defensive help was enormous. He moves up a bit this week, into the 40's.

I like Randolph a little better than Fox, a little worse than Monroe. He is somewhere around 40.

Tanana isn't in the top 100.

My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady production over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates. Finally, unlike Bill James and most voters I don’t give any “consecutive-season” bonus; value is value.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1, #2 and #6 were elected. The super class of 1999: Brett-Yount-Fisk-Ryan-Murphy. The big name in 2000 is Goose. In 2001, Winfield and Whitaker stroll in the doors of the HoM while Puckett, Parrish and Mattingly take on the backlog. Ozzie and Tram are the shorts-toppers in 2002; if Dawson is elected, it won’t be in a “walk”.

1) George Brett – Generally rated among the top 40 players all-time.

2) Robin Yount – Generally rated among the top 60 players all-time.

3) Carlton Fisk – Generally rated among the top 100 players all-time.

4) Nolan Ryan – Generally rated among the top 125 players all-time. Holds career records for walks (by nearly 1000 over #2!) and wild pitches. Third all-time in Losses. You’d think at least once in 27 seasons he’s be more than six games over .500, but he never was.

5) Tony Perez (3,1,1) – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great.

6) George Van Haltren (4,3,3) – We’ve now elected 16 players who were behind him in 1970. Huh? Were we so wrong about him for 50+ elections? No, we’re wrong now. Now in his 91st year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

One non-HoMer here, Players with 3400 times on base 1871-1909:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

7) Tommy Leach (5,5,5) – After his highest finish since 1945 in 1997, he held his position in the backlog; his candidacy’s “not dead yet”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). <u>Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10</u>:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

8) Burleigh Grimes (7,7,8) – Comparable to E. Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing
5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller

9) Rusty Staub (8,8,9) – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

10) Roger Bresnahan (9,9,10) – A couple more voters now (15) have high regard for The Duke of Tralee as he finished in the top ten for the fourth time in 77 years. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14, 3100+ PA:
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

11) Jimmy Ryan (10,10,11) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

12) Graig Nettles (11,11,12) – Another looonggg career 1970’s star. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

13) Rollie Fingers (12,12,13) – Definitely a bubble candidate. It all depends on what angle you view him from. One of four pitchers with 1500 relief IP, there may never be another. OK, so maybe he’s the Grimes of RP’s.

14) Rabbit Maranville (13,13,14) – Pulling a couple of my old Lost Causes out of the backlog. Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 134.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.0 (high of 8.0). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 105.5, easily in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

15) Wally Schang (14,14,15) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan, so he’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

Top tenners off ballot:

Willie Randolph slips off; he’ll be back.

Bucky Walters – Was on 1997 ballot. Think I might’ve had him a tad overrated.

If we elect Browning it will be proof of mistakes in the design of our system; if a guy who’s liked by about a third of the electorate, and ranked +50 by another third, can make it in isn’t right. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era.

Redding is a good candidate if you put total faith in the translations showing a stratospheric peak.

Bob Johnson looks just like a lot of other guys. Career not that long, peak not that high, just a bat.

1999 Ballot

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments. I have recently become concerned at the impact of the very-low-replacement level of both WARP1 and WS on my rankings. I include a rate stat in my system, but I am not confident that it compensates sufficiently for the overvaluing of pure playing time by the comprehensive metrics. I haven’t had time to revamp my system to adjust replacement level yet, but one of my subjective adjustments identifies players who are likely to be overrated somewhat for this reason. I have begun using Dan R’s wins above replacement as a tool for this purpose also. Long-career, strong-defense infielders have benefited from this. This year I have begun a comprehensive review of pitcher rankings. It’s not finished, but some results are reflected in this year’s order.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. George Brett (n/e). % = 1.4354. #3 Third baseman of all time. Clearly behind Schmidt and Mathews, a little ahead of Boggs.
2. Carlton Fisk (n/e). % = 1.4244. A little behind contemporaries Carter and Bench in the all time catcher rankings.
3. Nolan Ryan (n/e). % = 1.3375. Comparisons to Don Sutton sell Ryan short, in my view. He has less peak than contemporaries Carlton, Perry, and Niekro, and he was a bit less effective over the long haul than Blyleven, but even though he brings up the rear of this group, he is well ahead of Sutton. His peak in the mid 70s was legit, and he had a number of strong years scattered through the 1980s and early 1990s.
4. Robin Yount (n/e). % = 1.3289. Being #4 in this group is no shame. If not for his shoulder injury, he might have been near the top of this group, but he doesn’t quite have the career to match up with the ageless Fisk and Ryan, although at his peak he was a little bit better. Definitely in the top half of the HoM, perhaps in the top 100 all time. If he gets elected over Ryan, I’ll have no complaints. Huge gap between the Big Four and the rest of the pack!
5. Rollie Fingers (3) % = 1.0419. Fingers shows up comfortably above the in/out line in my system. He was not as lights-out as we have come to expect the modern closer to be, but he was still highly effective, extremely durable, and highly leveraged.
6. Dave Bancroft (4). % = 1.0463. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
7. Alejandro Oms (5) % = 1.0407. All of my top candidates this year have long, strong primes without a great peak. This is as true of Oms as of Evans, Fingers, and Bancroft.
8. Willie Randolph (6). % = 1.0609. Excellent defense, above average offense sparked by his on-base skills, and a long career. The only knock on him is mediocre durability, which kept him from putting up huge seasonal win share/WARP totals. The fact that my ballot is now crowded by infielders of similar durability (significant for career, uneven in season) suggests that this is a hazard of the positions, and one for which the electorate should adjust a bit more than it is doing. He’s similar to both Bancroft and Leach.
9. Tommy Leach (7). % = 1.0381. Outstanding player for a long time. Andrew Siegel’s brief analysis of his case is excellent, and Dan R’s war2 shows that his play in relatively high SD leagues was still very valuable.
10. Tommy John (9). % = 1.0308. He doesn’t have a great peak, but his 12-14 year prime is about as good as any eligible pitcher’s, and he adds another 4-6 good years on top of that. He is the Jake Beckley of pitchers, and he ranks about where Beckley ranked before his recent election.
11. Rabbit Maranville (10) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop who hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study indicates that my system overvalues him, but he still has a strong career argument.
12. Buddy Bell (11). % = 1.0349. Better than I realized. Both WARP and WS love his defense, and he’s on the good side of the in-out line by both metrics in my system. Very similar to Nettles, but his defensive excellence appears to have lasted longer. I have ranked him below what his percentile ranking suggests because I am not exactly sure where the in-out line for the 1980s will end up. Right now that in-out line is quite low, but it could rise as I finish evaluating that decade’s candidates.
13. Graig Nettles (12). % = 1.00. Great defender, decent hitter for a long time. Looks identical to Bell in overall merit, and I prefer both to Nellie Fox. It’s fitting that it has worked out so that they are arriving on my ballot together. I might resort to the archaic practice of splitting my #15 vote rather than putting one on the ballot and one off.
14. Bus Clarkson (13). % = 1.00. Lots of discussion of his new MLEs has ended with his value looking about like it did before the revision, in my view. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him the edge over Perez.
15. Dave Stieb (14). % = 1.00. I agree with Eric C. that he was the best pitcher in his league for the first half of the 1980s. This is a weak crop of pitchers, but I think it was also a hard time on pitchers. My review of pitchers has set out to make cross-era head-to-head comparisons more feasible by using normalized innings pitched. Without normalization, Stieb’s prime is as good as that of any eligible pitcher. With normalization, he rises to the top.

1999 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Bobby Bonds (15) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.
17. Charley Jones (13). % = 1.00. Slips off my ballot this year; he’ll be back after the 1999 star glut clears, I expect. I give him 2+ years credit for the blacklisting. The only player on the ballot with an argument to have been the best player in baseball at his peak.
18. Burleigh Grimes (31). % = 1.00. Biggest beneficiary of my pitcher review. I found two mathematical errors in my calculations that had knocked him significantly downward. The correction of the errors has him looking very similar, if not superior, to Rixey and Faber. I am moving him up significantly, though I’m not quite ready to put him onto the ballot, and I don’t think he is superior to Stieb or John in any case. Had a strong 14 year prime, in which he was a huge workhorse, but his value before and after his prime was minimal. John’s better career pushes him ahead, and Stieb’s 14-year career is better than Grimes’ 14-year prime.
19. Tony Perez (15). % = 1.0327. Dan R’s replacement-level study drops Perez somewhat in my estimation. I’m grouping him more closely now with Cash and Staub.
20. Norm Cash. (16) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Bell and Nettles on league-strength considerations.
21. Dale Murphy (n/e). % = 1.0020. Similar to Bobby Bonds and Charley Jones, relatively short career, high peak outfielders, with very good defense at their best. He’s a bit behind those two because his prime was shorter, and his peak was only a little higher. His peak rate is actually lower than Bonds’. He has excellent seasonal win share totals, but that is partly a factor of durability. Durability is good, but WS too-low replacement levels make durability overrated by many voters.
22. Rusty Staub (18) % = 1.0457. My system argues for a higher placement than I have given Staub, but few players that I have ranked have added more career value in a series of below-average seasons, so I believe my system overrates him. He was legitimately outstanding during his peak in Montreal, however, so he should be in the mix. A career-slice approach suggests that the contemporary “bat” players to whom he is closest in value are Bonds and Norm Cash, so I am ranking him just a little below the two of them. His profile is also a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, actually, which provides another justification for ranking him about here, just a half dozen spots ahead of the best outfielder from the 1890s still eligible.
23. Gavvy Cravath (19). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Slips a little bit as a result of recent discussions, which have made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia. I am therefore having a harder time seeing what makes him better than Bob Johnson.
24. Luis Tiant (14). % = 1.0024. My review of pitchers puts my assessment of him more into line with Joe Dimino’s. Tiant was highly effective, but not especially durable for his time, and not notably more effective than the more durable Stieb. His extended prime was no better than Tommy John’s. I still have him worthy of election, but I’m no longer pushing his candidacy by voting for him.

25. Joe Tinker (20). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
26. Bob Johnson (22). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
27. Reggie Smith (23) % = .9791. Dan R’s numbers bring him back into my potentially electable group. His case is still much weakened by seasonal durability issues and by a Dw. Evanseque divide between fielding peak and batting peak, but he was an above average player for a long time, and hardly ever had a bad year.
28. Dom Dimaggio (24). % = 1.00. Likewise.
29. Jimmy Ryan (25). % = 1.00. The best of the remaining 1890s outfielders.
30. Herman Long (26). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts. Dan R’s numbers on Long are not encouraging, so he slips a bit his year.
31. Dick Redding (27). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Urban Shocker and Don Newcombe. My pitching review hasn’t gotten as far as the Negro-League pitchers, but I’m doubtful it will help his case. I hope I will have time to do that review before he is elected. If it doesn’t happen this year, there should be a couple years of breathing room.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

32. Bill Monroe .9922
33. Don Newcombe .9886
34. Urban Shocker .9867
35. George Burns .9879
36. Willie Davis .9896
37. Ron Cey .9800
38. Ken Singleton .9780
39. Johnny Evers .9779
40. Fielder Jones .9778
41. Bruce Sutter .9755
42. Ron Guidry .9735. Great peak. I don’t know why the peak pitching voters aren’t giving him any support. I’d take him, on peak, over either Bucky Walters or Lefty Gomez. I’m inclined to move him up, but more study is needed.
43. Lave Cross .9709
44. Hugh Duffy .9686
45. Johnny Pesky .9676
46. Ben Taylor .9667
47. Cy Seymour .9665
48. Rick Reuschel .9657. I still don’t see what Joe sees, but the pitching review is still in progress.
49. Dick Bartell .9653
50. Frank Tanana. .9637 His placement, like Reuschel’s just above, may be a bit low. I’ll be studying him carefully as part of my pitcher review. Fine peak in the mid 1970s, then a lot of innings as a league-average pitcher after that.
51. Jim Kaat .9631.
52. George Van Haltren .9538
53. Larry Doyle .9614
54. Bobby Veach .9609
55. Buzz Arlett .9602
56. Vada Pinson .9599
57. Dave Parker .9593.
58. Jose Cruz .9587.
59. Jack Clark .9564.
56. Leroy Matlock .9544
57. Tommy Bond .9511

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Seven of the returning top 10 are not on my ballot, which is almost certainly a record. Redding and Walters are not the starting pitchers most deserving of support, nor are Johnson and Cravath the most deserving outfielders, though they would not be bad choices. Browning and Duffy are mistakes. Bresnahan is a tougher case, but I am not yet on board. In general, I think the electorate is undervaluing long-career, high-defense infielders who lack the gaudy win share seasonal totals that win the admiration of peak voters. But win shares seriously undervalues these players because (1) its batting replacement level is WAY too low, so players get too much “showing up credit,” which is easier for outfielders to accrue than infielders and (2) its range of fielding values is too compressed, so that excellent fielding is undervalued. This infielder group is most disadvantaged by this mistake, so my ballot is filling up with players of this type, as I wait for a seismic shift in the electorate. More detailed comments on the returning top 10 left off my ballot follow.

Dick Redding. See #31 above.

Pete Browning. % = .8920. Yes, he was an outstanding hitter, but his eye-popping years were all in the weakest major leagues of all time (excepting the UA), he was not an asset on defense, he was not durable within seasons, and his career was short. He is not near my top 50 eligibles. My system sees him as having a case similar to Frank Howard and Rocky Colavito. They have arguments, but they are nevertheless clearly on the outside looking in. There was a bit of talk about “our biggest mistake” election. The only two choices we have made that I see as clear “mistakes” are Bill Terry and Sam Thompson, with Thompson being the bigger of the two. Browning is distinctly less qualified than Thompson. All three players were overrated, I think, because they have very gaudy batting statistics that aren’t as meritorious as they appear.

Bucky Walters. % = .9387. Walters’ prominence in the rankings derives from his peak value. His peak was strong, but outside of his peak he was not much better than an average pitcher. His hitting compensates somewhat, but his last excellent years need a discount for wartime competition. If I were ranking purely on best seven consecutive years, he might make my ballot, but he would still be behind Ron Guidry and Dave Stieb.

Roger Bresnahan. % = .9435. Doesn’t fall far short of HoM standards as I see it, but he needed either a bit more defensive quality or a bit more playing time. I don’t think we need to have every position represented for every decade. Bresnahan was probably the best of his era, but he doesn’t have quite enough to warrant election.

Bob Johnson. See #26 above. I’m actually rather pleased to see Johnson in the returning top 10. He was unfairly neglected for many years after he first became eligible, and I was among those who didn’t give him as much support as he merited. I’m not advocating his election, but I don’t see him as a bad choice. If I had a pHOM, which I might get around to creating once we are caught up to the present, I would guess that Johnson would have a good shot at entry during a backlog year between 2007 and 2012.

Hugh Duffy. % = .9686. He looks a lot like Cy Seymour to me, and Cy Seymour isn’t drawing so much HoM support. Ranks 44th at present.

Gavvy Cravath. See # 23 above. Worthy of election, I believe, but there’s no room for him on the ballot.

Brett. Ryan. Fisk.

And man, I would like to throw another 2-3 in.

He actually got his break with the Senators when he was 25.

He definitely deserves WWI credit, but beyond that, I have no idea.

I stand corrected I typed 27 with out looking mistaking full season for playing his first game.

I didn't mean that there was any reason to give him credit it's just that if he would have had a normal Beginning of his career for what he acomplished afterwards I think he would have made the HoM "decades" ago.

I didn't mean that there was any reason to give him credit it's just that if he would have had a normal Beginning of his career for what he acomplished afterwards I think he would have made the HoM "decades" ago

I still doubt it, yest. He didn't have a peak and, unlike Beckley, he can't remotely be considered the best player at his position for his time (forget about Ruth, he wasn't nearly as good as Heilmann either).

Chirs Cobb:
22. Rusty Staub. My system argues for a higher placement than I have given Staub, but few players that I have ranked have added more career value in a series of below-average seasons, so I believe my system overrates him.

I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value

In general, I think the electorate is undervaluing long-career, high-defense infielders who lack the gaudy win share seasonal totals that win the admiration of peak voters. But win shares seriously undervalues these players because (1) its batting replacement level is WAY too low, so players get too much “showing up credit,” which is easier for outfielders to accrue than infielders ..... I wait for a seismic shift in the electorate.

--
Chris, I really appreciate the insight into your rankings and the dissertations you've put forth. But I gotta ask a few Qs--

1. Given that, in your system, Staub comes out 'too high', what changes might you make in your system? The MBJHA has Staub as the 24th best RFer, and given that James used big years prominently in his rankings (friendly to Rusty) and had a large timeline, I'd say #24 is generous.

2. You are not unkind to pre-WWII infielders nor to 3Bmen in general; so, where is John McGraw on your ballot? He has a lot of "total value above average" and "peak rate". He played when infielders had a tough time of making a full career, and we've honored relatively few 1890s infielders. McGraw's skills (OBP!! & speed) were particularly suited for his day in ways that BP's offensive scheme (EqA) I think fails to fully appreciate, but do show up in his OWP/RC/WS. I'm sure you do adjust for the difference in 3B play prior to 1930, as well as the one-league environ, so I'm surprised Mugsy doesn't show up on your radar, even though you do probably give somewhat more weight to career value than most of us.

I'm actually surprised Chris has Oms on his radar given his criteria. Sometimes I think we should just quit and let Chris pick the HoM, then I remember he has Rabbit Maranville that high. Still I agree with him more often than not and he always puts a lot of thought into his placement.

1) George Brett – Inner Circle Greatness. Pine Tar!!!!!
2) Carlton Fisk – Yankee fans such as myself hated him, but you can’t dispute the evidence. Long career and a real good one, too.
3) Nolan Ryan – Exhibit A on Power Pitchers. The long career and the ability to continue to dominate games into his 40’s is astounding.
4) Robin Yount- Better baseball player than golfer.
5) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
6) Burleigh Grimes –5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
7) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
8) Luis Aparicio –nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
9) Rollie Fingers – The first of the great modern relievers.
10) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
11) Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
12) Dale Murphy – A heckuva peek, gets points off for a lousy batting average.
13) Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
14) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
15) Willie Randolph – Really, really good for a long time (even after he left the Yankees)

no soup for...
16) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller got more votes than him.
17) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
18)Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
19) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.



20) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
21) Dave Parker – Drugs are bad, mmkay?
22) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
23) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
24) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
25) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
26) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
27) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
28) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
29) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
30) Tommy John &
31) Jim Kaat - Longevity certainly, Greatness no.
32) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
33) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
34) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
35) Dave Stieb – It would have been very interesting had he played for a better team to see what his career stas would have been.
36) Vida Blue – What might have been…
37) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
38) Bob Johnson – Much like the Jeffersons, he’s moving on up.
39) Don Baylor &
40) Reggie Smith The Hall of very good beckons
41) Bucky Walters- Nice peak, but not enough.

42) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
43) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.

Roger Bresnahan is not close. Two years with over 125 hits does not a great player make.

>Sometimes I think we should just quit and let Chris pick the HoM,

No, no, DanR has the facts.

1999 ballot. The Four Horsemen ride into town and take over the top of the ballot. An embarrassment of riches to add to the HOM. Methodology: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. Once that is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture, a composite worthy player. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. George Brett (-). I was never sorry to see the Tigers intentionally walk George Brett. He was that good and at Tiger Stadium that short right field porch seemed to scream his name.

2. Carlton Fisk (-). Longevity at a position where that is exceptional. Games he caught were rather long though – wasn’t getting payed to speed up the contest.

3. Robin Yount (-). I’d coin-flip it with the next guy but Yount played just long enough as SS to outpoll the Ryan Express. Too bad he had the bum shoulder or he might have kept playing better & longer.

4. Nolan Ryan (-). 16 times among his leagues top 3 in Hits Allowed per 9 innings. 19 times among top 3 in strikeouts per 9 innings. Really dominant, ay?

5. Dick Redding (3). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected.

6. Norm Cash (4). Interesting debate with the Perez/Cepeda/Cash comparison. There appears to be fielding value on his end than the others at 1B.

7. Tommy Leach (5). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in.

8. Bobby Bonds (6). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son. Five tools on display.

9. Reggie Smith (7). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup. Should we add in the year in Japan at the end of his career? I don’t currently.

10. Roger Bresnahan (8). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

11. Tony Mullane (9). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

12. Bob Johnson (10). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

13. Mickey Welch (12). Another one of those annoying 300 game winners. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey.

14. Willie Randolph (11). The last thing I think we need is another Yankee voted in but you try to put team affiliation out of this. Hence he grabs a ballot spot. Nice long career for a 2nd basemen, someone who did many things well without ever doing that one thing at an other-worldly level. I have him much better than where Fox was – he added to a nice defense better onbase skills and decent speed on the bases.

15. Alejandro Oms (13). The body of work included Negro and Latin American play. Another career lost in translation since the Cuban time can be tricky to compute.

16-20: Walters, Mays, Bell, Poles, Fingers
21-25: C Jones, Clarkson, Rizzuto, Shocker, Browning
26-30: Byrd, Willis, Stieb, Nettles, Perez
31-35: Easter, Bancroft, Tiant, Munson, Ryan
36-40: Ben Taylor, Luque, Brock, J Clark, Grimes
41-45: Duffy, Cicotte, Cey, Tenace, Bridges
46-50: T John, Cedeno, Sutter, F Jones, Elliott

Top 10 Returnees: Walters (#16), Browning (#25), Charley Jones (#21), Fingers (#20), Cravath (not top 50), Duffy (#41). Walters bumped out of top 15 by the new class. Browning has the hitting going for him, will probably get back a ballot spot shortly. Charley Jones gets some of that blacklisted credit, just not enough. Fingers is the best reliever available but not so valuable as long term starters. Cravath has been re-evaluated and comes in just outside the top 50. Not a bad candidate by any stretch of the imagination in that he has a nice peak but I tend not to be too peak oriented. Duffy’s great 1894 sticks out but the rest of the body doesn’t quite push him high enough.

New guys: Dale Murphy (not top 50), wow, I would have thought I’d like him better. He’s down around George Foster territory amongst the people who put together a nice little peak run. Seemed like a nice guy all the same.

Just time to vote before I head off to Alaska for a vacation…

I’m a peak voter, though an amazing prime or really strong career will overwhelm my peak preferences in my (revamped) system. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

The new system gives a chunk more weight to best-10 and career totals, which moved a lot of folks around, mostly just off ballot and below, though a few people crept on (Reese, Hernandez) or off (Cicotte). A lot of the HOM-not-pHOM group in particular rose, and since I hadn’t been particularly intending that effect, I feel it’s a sign I’ve made a good adjustment.

pHOM: Brett, Yount, Fisk

1999 ballot:

1. George Brett (pHOM 1999). He comes out as the third best modern 3B in my system so far, after only Schmidt and Mathews (though well behind them). A dominant force for quite a while at a difficult position (mostly), and an easy #1 on my ballot.

2. Robin Yount (pHOM 1999). Not top tier all-time at either position, but impressive enough offensively, and reasonably capable defensively at both. He’s not as no-brainer as Brett—but he’s pretty no-brainer. I have him clearly and solidly ahead of Fisk for this spot. The two MVP years were quite something.

3. Carlton Fisk (pHOM 1999). Another easy elect-me pick—not in the class of recent inductee Carter at this position, but definitely a notch above the borderliner HOM catcher inductees like Torre, Freehan, and Simmons, in my opinion.

4. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me.

5. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste. As Sunny always points out, great peak on both offense and defense.

6. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

7. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. Excellent peak.

8. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

9. Nolan Ryan. Always nice to be aligning with my fellow peaksters Sunny and Dr. C. Like them, I agree that Ryan is clearly HOM quality, and he’ll make my pHOM at next opportunity. And he is perhaps somewhat underrated by SABR-types now—all those Ks and innings have a lot of merit. But man, that’s a lot of walks. Despite the no-hitters and the general awesomeness and the Ventura-punching, I find that he’s just not dominant enough to beat out Dean and Willis on my ballot—at least, not dominant in the way I'm looking for it. I have him just a little better overall than Drysdale—which puts him in the HOM, but not in the high tiers.

10. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluated outfielders, he would do a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for.

11. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). No, he wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years to get my vote.

12. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). As with Browning, his numbers are covered in the AA mist, but I’m convinced he played at a high enough level long enough for induction—at his best, he was pretty clearly a force.

13. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me. He drops several spots after the tweaks to my system.

14. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). Finally makes his way back to the ballot after a demotion some years ago. I still like his peak—just not as much as I used to when I was almost giving him elect-me spots.

15. Ken Singleton (pHOM 1997). Another of the “I had no idea he was this good at the time” gang—I think he was the player most felt Rice was back then.

16-20: [K. Hernandez], McGraw (1996), Doyle (1995), Redding (1975), [Minoso], Trout (1997), Pesky (1997)
21-25: Oms (1996), [W. Wells], F. Howard, [Da. Evans], Cicotte (1972), Bando, Fingers,
26-30: [Ashburn], Bresnahan (1973), Rizzuto, [Dw. Evans], Leach, Walters (1968), D. Murphy
31-35: Nettles, Parker, McCormick, G. Burns, Stieb
36-40: Clarkson, [Boyer], H. Smith, Berger, Gomez (1987), Sutter
41-45: Dunlap, Cepeda, Avila Quisenberry, [Doerr], M. Marshall,
46-50: Elliott, Shocker, P. Guerrero, Munson, Stephens


Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Redding. Not quite the peak (as far as we can tell, anyway) of my favorite pitching candidates, but he’s very close. At #16, he’s just off my ballot, and as with a few other guys (Roush, McGraw, Doyle), I don’t know if I can keep him off much longer.

•Randolph. Much as I’d love to cast a vote for another of my childhood heroes, I just don’t see him as a viable option. The argument for him seems to revolve around his quality of play compared to that of other 2Bs in his era, and as with Concepcion, that’s just not terribly convincing to me. Otherwise, it takes a lot of extra fielding credit (which I do give, having been convinced that WS undervalues fielding significantly for the most part) to get him up around Marvin Williams, which leaves him just outside my top 50.

•Walters. He’s actually in my pHOM, but I’ve soured a bit on him of late—his WS numbers are lovely, but his PRAA numbers don’t match up. I split the difference (leaning harder on the PRAA, admittedly), so he’s at #27.

•Fingers. A tough nut to crack, but in the end I feel he doesn’t quite have the peak I’m looking for. All the other factors pump up his standing though, and he hovers right near my eventual in/out line for my pHOM. He’s at #26 right now.

•Bresnahan. Another guy who’s in my pHOM but who has dropped behind some other candidates recently. He’s still my second-favorite among the remaining backlog catchers, though. At #24.

•B. Johnson. I don’t get it. Even with my new greater emphasis on prime/career, he ends up down with guys like Jose Cruz Sr. Not terribly close to my top 50.

•Murphy. Not quite Alejandro Oms. I’m being conservative with him for his first time out—he may move up slightly, but I don’t see him quite making my pHOM in the end…we’ll see. He debuts at #30.

Ballot for 1999 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has had an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

I continue to reexamine my ballot carefully as we go deep into the backlog.

1) G. BRETT -- Overshadowed by Schmidt. Prime 1975-90. Best player candidate in 1980; WS adds 1976, 1979, 1985. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1979 and 1985. Other star seasons include 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1983; also 1988 and 1990 at 1B.

2) R. YOUNT -- Short but strong prime. Prime 1980-89. Best player in 1982 by WS, candidate by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star 1982 (SS) and 1989 (CF); WS adds 1980 and 1981 at SS. Other star seasons include 1983 and 1984 at SS and in CF 1986, 1987, 1988.

3) N. RYAN -- Overrated and underrated. Here, just rated. Prime 1972-81, 1987-91. Best player in 1977 by WARP, candidate in 1972. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1973; WARP adds 1974, 1977, 1981. Other star seasons include 1972, 1976, 1979, 1987, 1989, 1991. Honorable mention in 1990.

4) C. FISK -- WS likes him more than WARP but still great. Prime 1972-90 (with gaps). 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1977; WS adds 1978 and 1983. Other star seasons include 1972, 1976, 1985, and 1990. Honarable mention in 1981, 1982, 1989.

5) D. STIEB -- The lack of support here is surprising to me. Best pitcher of the early 1980's. Prime 1980-85. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985; WARP adds 1981. Other star seasons include 1980, 1988, and 1989.

6) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

7) F. TANANA -- Belongs. Poster-child for pitcher abuse. Still, he has the peak and has the career. Prime 1974-77. Best player candidate in 1976 and 1977 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1976; WARP adds 1975, 1977. Other star seasons include 1974, 1984. Honorable mention in 1987.

8) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

9) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

10) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

11) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

12) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

13) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

14) B. BONDS -- Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

15) W. RANDOLPH -- No peak. Long low prime with a good career. Prime 1976-80, 1984-89. 1st team MLB All-Star (2b) by WS in 1980. Other star seasons include 1976, 1978, 1979, 1985, 1987, 1989. HM in 1977, 1982, 1986.

16) R. CEY -- Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

17) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

18) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

19) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

20) D. DEAN -- High peak candidate. Prime 1932-36. Candidate for best player in MLB baseball, 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Pie Traynor, Rabbat Maranville, Thurman Munson,
24-26) Elston Howard, Rollie Fingers, Dizzy Trout,
27-29) Jim McCormick, Bobby Veach, Dick Redding,
30-33) Norm Cash, Jim Whitney, Ron Guidry, Vida Blue,
34-36) Graig Nettles, Roger Bresnahan, Urban Shocker,
37-40) Dale Murphy, Charley Jones, Bob Johnson, Hugh Duffy,

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.

In general, I think the electorate is undervaluing long-career, high-defense infielders who lack the gaudy win share seasonal totals that win the admiration of peak voters. ... This infielder group is most disadvantaged by this mistake, so my ballot is filling up with players of this type, as I wait for a seismic shift in the electorate.

You're not the only one experiencing this problem.

. There was a bit of talk about “our biggest mistake” election. The only two choices we have made that I see as clear “mistakes” are Bill Terry and Sam Thompson, with Thompson being the bigger of the two.

Suppose that DanR does not rate Nellie Fox the biggest mistake. IIRC he named Boyer Torre Freehan(?) and he named Averill. Say, from before DanR's time, these are the candidates who have been named as I recall.
Thompson, Terry; McGinnity, Faber, Lemon
Browning has been named in advance.

The strongest opponents of Pearce, Start, Pike, Spalding, and Barnes may be Richard Nixon's silent majority , browbeaten into swallowing their tongues.


I'm actually surprised Chris has Oms on his radar given his criteria. Sometimes I think we should just quit and let Chris pick the HoM, then I remember he has Rabbit Maranville that high. Still I agree with him more often than not and he always puts a lot of thought into his placement.

It looks like the good old days have passed, when "as Chris Cobb goes, so goes the nation"


jimd
You're not the only one experiencing this problem.

But with Stieb-Walters-Tanana backing up the gang of four at 5-6-7 (and Kaat-Tiant 10-11) it seems clear that you believe the electorate is awry more importantly elsewhere.

There were strong opponents of Ross Barnes?

Well, I just happen to disagree with the group on catchers. I definitely wouldn't have voted for Torre or Freehan, but a reasonable philosophical difference in voting style doesn't add up to "worst mistake" status in my book. Fox definitely sticks out to me like a sore thumb as someone vastly inferior to both his positional and era peers--a ghastly, unjustifiable inclusion, and the group's worst mistake by leaps and bounds. I have Averill and Boyer as other puzzlers, but not quite bang-my-head-against-the-wall cases like Fox. Beyond those, I wouldn't have voted for Brooks, Ashburn, Beckley, Hack, Killebrew, Wynn, or Medwick, but they are all borderline candidates with electable credentials in my view (I've explained my views on Killebrew elsewhere).

Thanks for the clarification, DanR
- Thompson, Terry, Fox; McGinnity, Faber, Lemon

There were strong opponents of Ross Barnes?

I think so, although that was before Spalding, Pike, Start, and Pearce. Maybe it was an open question whether Deacon White would be the eldest HOMer.

There were strong opponents of Ross Barnes?

I think so, although that was before Spalding, Pike, Start, and Pearce. Maybe it was an open question whether Deacon White would be the eldest HOMer.

I was the only voter who did not vote for Barnes in 1898 and therefore hold the distinction of being the first voter to witness the enshrinement of a player not on my ballot. I never entered the names of Spalding, Pike, Start or Pearce on my ballot either. I held (and still hold) the minority view that the quality of play and organization of the game prior to 1876 did not merit equal treatment with subsequent eras. If a player's post-1876 record was not sufficient to earn a place on my ballot, I didn't vote for him. It was an argument I lost a long time ago and is the explanation for most of the differences between my PHoM and the HoM.

That's constitutional, dan b?

Paul Wendt, I forgot that Terry had gotten in. He is similar to Averill and Boyer for me. I haven't done WARP for pitchers or Negro Leaguers yet, so I have no view on them.

I held (and still hold) the minority view that the quality of play and organization of the game prior to 1876 did not merit equal treatment with subsequent eras.

That's actually a majority view, Dan. The only difference is that most of us don't conclude that the top-line stars were necessarily inferior to the post-NA players. Unless I'm misinterpreting you, you would feel Babe Ruth (had he played in the 1860s) would not be worthy of discussion, despite the fact that he would be the same player he was in the 20th century. I have never understood this argument.

Was baseball different back then? Sure. It doesn't mean it wasn't baseball. I'm pretty sure that Dickey Pearce, Bob Ferguson and others would state otherwise if they could (and you wouldn't be able to prove them wrong :-)

He is similar to Averill and Boyer for me.

I didn't care for Averill until I incorporated his MLE, making him a good candidate, IMO.

I think maybe you could summarize that debate as follows. We have been fair to all eras. But some voters didn't think the period before 1871 or 1876 was an era.

I think maybe you could summarize that debate as follows. We have been fair to all eras. But some voters didn't think the period before 1871 or 1876 was an era.

That's about it in a nutshell, Marc.

That's constitutional, dan b?

It's in a gray area, Dan. Not the NA (they were always supposed to be considered), but pre-1871. Nobody really thought about the 1850s and 1860s, so there was no mention of that era in the Constitution. In fact, even our commissioner Joe Dimino wasn't very receptive to the idea at one time.

I was probably the biggest proponent for considering athletes before the professional leagues were set up, but Dan Greenia deserves a lot of credit for having Dickey Pearce on our inaugural ballot. That was the real catalyst for me and others and it was then that some of us started to examine those forgotten players.

Hey, I just remembered that you were voting back then and thought Pearce wasn't playing real baseball. I guess I'm not going to convince you now. Of course, Perace is a HoMer so I don't have to. :-D

The real villain (not to me,of course) in the Pearce saga is the person who posted all of the data for the pre-1871 era, sketchy as it was by modern (even by 1871) standards. Much to my chagrin, the data showed Harry Wright to have been over-rated, long after I'd PHoMed him. But Pearce was an outstanding "batsman" according to the data and was an outstanding defender by all of the qualitative data that we had. Who was it that posted that info and where did it come from? That was one of the highlights of this whole project was finding out that there was data pre-1871.

WARNING NON-BASEBALL REQUEST FOR INFORMATION

If anyone in the group is familiar with The China Study and wouldn't mind sharing any thoughts about its conclusions or methodology or any thoughts on the quality of the critiques from the Masterjohn/WAPF group, I'll be much obliged for the insight. Thanks!

END OF NON-BASEBALL CONTENT

That was David Foss, I believe. Another unsung Pearce supporter.

Whoops! meant to put that in the ballot discussion, which I'll do now. Sorry, everyone.

Whoops again. I meant to say please emeial me, rather than take up thread speace. thanks.

Yes, I was very anti-Pearce. It wasn't that I was anti-pre-1871 guys in general, I just wasn't receptive to the "he invented shortstop" claim to Merit. Dan B is saying that he didn't consider the NA real baseball, and I was asking whether THAT is constitutional.

Speaking as a fan of the project, I'm incredibly impressed that you considered pre-1871 players, Negro Leaguers, Caribbean players and anybody else not considered by Bill James in Win Shares or Clay Davenport in WARP. Considering only the players considered by James/Davenport would not have added near the value as you all have. Now if you had only considered Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese and other guys...

for review or purchase:
Marshall Wright, The National Association of Base Ball Players, 1857-1870 (the "amateur Association")

Wright must have more data, at least for the team-seasons he compiled himself. Most of the player tables in the book are limited to 5+ games played.

The sesquicentennial is upon us. Does anyone have time and interest for local research?

I just wasn't receptive to the "he invented shortstop" claim to Merit.

Even though I stressed that point, I felt he was 100% qualified based on merit, not as a pioneer.

Dan B is saying that he didn't consider the NA real baseball, and I was asking whether THAT is constitutional.

It depends. If it's a total ban, regardless of the stats, probably.

Were some posts deleted here?