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Sunday, July 01, 2007

2001 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Lou Whitaker, Dave Winfield, Kirby Puckett, Don Mattingly, Lance Parrish, Tom Henke and Dave Stewart.

Top-ten returnees: Willie Randolph, Cannonball Dick Redding, Pete Browning, Dave Stieb, Charley Jones, Roger Bresnahan and Tony Perez.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 01, 2007 at 07:26 PM | 150 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: July 08, 2007 at 11:36 PM (#2434107)
2001 Ballot

1. Dave Winfield - Too much career value here to overlook the peak. A fantastic all-around player.
2. Pete Browning - Pete Browning - I'm convinced he was the 1880's Dick Allen. He belongs.
3. Hugh Duffy - I like Browning better after looking closer, but his glove makes him elite.
4. Dave Stieb - My system likes him. Good peak, maybe the best of eligible pitchers from the 20 century. He is also criminally underrated.
5. Bucky Walters - How did I miss him for so long? Underrated by the electorate. Very similar to Stieb.
6. Lou Whitaker - Not as fascinated by him as many are, but he is still a HOM-able player.
7. Thurman Munson - I'm sold that he was very similar to Freehan.
8. Willie Randolph - Above average with the bat, very good glove. WARP loves him.
9. Buddy Bell - He's very close to Darrell Evans in my system, just a bit better than Nettles.
10. Graig Nettles - WARP likes him, and so do I. A poor man's Brooks Robinson.
11. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player. Moves down after re-examining DH-era hitters.
12. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
13. Jack Clark - I think he's the best of the no-defense sluggers left.
14. Dale Murphy - Reasonable peak, more defensive value than Clark.
15. Don Mattingly - Clark, Murphy, and Donnie Baseball are essentially tied in my system. Excellent defender, great 3 year peak.

Required Disclosures:
Puckett is down with Roy White in the late 20's. I think he's one of the more overrated players in baseball history.
Parrish is down with Bresnahan in the 30's. A very good catcher, but I like Porter and Munson better.
Redding is in the 30's as well - that 1920's doesn't even look like a HOVG'er.
Jones is in the 30's - I don't give Blacklisting credit
Bresnahan as mentioned, is in the 30's - Imus tbe missing something on him
Perez is in the 20's - not much offense in the 1b years acts against his case.
   102. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 09, 2007 at 12:13 AM (#2434151)
The last 10 days of Tom's life have included a car crash (mister air bag stings, but he is much more friendly than mister steering wheel or mister dash board!), a lonnnng trip college visit for child #3, a holiday with family, and my dad surviving a couple of heart attacks.


Glad to hear you are OK. Hope your Big Papppy is doing better.

Hate it when real life gets in the way of baseball.
   103. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: July 09, 2007 at 02:29 AM (#2434295)
2001 ballot:

1. Dave Winfield, rf: Peak, prime, career, WS, WARP, OPS+, etc. Best on the board.

2. Lou Whitaker, 2b: Better than Randolph by nearly every measure. Second-best on the board.

3. Roger Bresnahan, c: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

4. Lou Brock, lf: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985, PHOM !997)

5. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

6. Willie Randolph, 2b: If you liked Fox, and I did, you probably like Randolph. Better bat, slightly worse glove by James-grade, similar WS, better WARP. (eligible 1998, PHOM 2000)

7. Bobby Bonds, rf: 5-tool outfielder. Had the speed and skill to play center, at least early on, but the Giants had some other guy there already. (eligible 1987, PHOM 1996)

8. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Has the peak/prime edge over Perez and Cash, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980, PHOM 1996)

9. Lance Parrish, c: I’m a little surprised he comes out so well, but so he does. 9-time first- or second-team all-star, 324 HR, A-rated defender.

10. Bruce Sutter, rp: Terrific ERA+ and incredible WS rate. Established the mold for the modern closer, but wasn’t confined to the 1-inning regimen. Career’s a bit short. (eligible 1994, PHOM 1997)

11. Kirby Puckett, cf: I liked the side-by-side table of him, Bonds, & Murphy. Murph had the better peak but less outside it, Bonds the more consistent prime. I slot Kirby between them. (eligible 2001)

12. Jack Morris, sp: He’s been compared to Grimes -- I think mostly by people who don’t like Grimes. But I like Grimes, therefore Morris. I like Jack better.

13. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. Too many bad seasons have ruined his chances. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

14. Dale Murphy, cf: I’m not crazy about him, just less crazy about the rest of the fringe outfielders kicking around. (eligible 1999)

15. Phil Rizzuto, ss: I’d like a little more peak, but with credit for the missing years, he’s got the career value. Great defense, infield anchor for a bunch of pennant winners. (eligible 1962)

Required comments:
Pete Browning, cf: In my PHOM (’27), and I now think that was a mistake (Beckley wasn’t). Monster hitter, monstrous on defense. That he was dominant despite in-season durability problems says quite a bit about the league.
Charley Jones: Among just the 19th-century leftovers, I have him behind Duffy, Welch, Browning, and maybe even Dunlap. I don’t think he’ll be making my ballot anytime soon.
Tony Perez, 1b/3b: Less peak than Cepeda or Cash, more than you-know-who. Better as a 3b than where he played most of his career. (eligible 1992)
Dave Stieb, sp: Good peak candidate but I’d like a little more career.
Dick Redding, sp: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) 10(?) Negro League pitcher. PHOM 1966 but I’ve cooled off since.
   104. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 09, 2007 at 03:07 AM (#2434335)

Glad to hear you are OK. Hope your Big Papppy is doing better.

Really. I can certainly empathize over both the air bag sting and hospital stay for your father. Glad things worked our for you, too, Tom.
   105. Qufini Posted: July 09, 2007 at 04:23 AM (#2434402)
Whew, where to begin with that one (and just sticking to baseball)?

Everyone thinks they're smarter than the market.

If you are, in fact, smarter than the market over a long period of time, then I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

Isn't that how Bill James made a living? By writing a newsletter in which he statistically demonstrated the fallacies of the market?
   106. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:26 AM (#2434466)
For the record, I don't think I'm smarter than the market. The average cash register, sure, but the whole market? Nah.

Anyway, here's hoping for an election that's just as interesting, but nowhere near as controversial, as last year's. A bunch of interesting new candidates. Winfield and Whitaker on top, Puckett around 30, Mattingly, Parrish and Henke lower down. (I haven't actually worked it out past 40 at this point - you want a Sunday night ballot, that's what you get.) Winfield, Whitaker and Randolph make my PHoM this year.

1. Dave Winfield (new) Extremely consistent, a ton of career value, maybe not quite as big as his huge free-agent contract made him out to be, but still a clear honoree. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Lou Whitaker (new) Seriously, how did he not stay on the HoF ballot? Then again, these are the geniuses who wouldn't put Sandberg in on the first ballot. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Bus Clarkson (3) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. The new MLE’s didn’t boost him that much, but it was enough to move him to the upper reaches of my ballot. Made my PHoM in 1997.

4. George Van Haltren (5) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I don't reject all peak arguments, but I'll take his consistency over Duffy's big years. Made my PHoM in 1972.

5. Bill Monroe (4) NOT surprised to see I was his Best Friend. The new Cuban translations boost him a slight bit, as we have more evidence for his quality. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Made my PHoM in 1939.

6. Dick Redding (6) Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

7. Bob Johnson (7) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons, plus he got started very late in the bigs, so I will give him at least 1 year of minor league credit. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am. Made my PHoM in 1992.

8. Gavvy Cravath (9) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

9. Reggie Smith (8) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP definitely has him with less fielding value than Wynn. Made my PHoM in 1995.

10. Tommy Leach (10) Dropped from the top of may ballot because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

11. Phil Rizzuto (11) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940 (I’m not counting it at the moment.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

12. Dave Stieb (12) He does have quite a peak, although the career argument isn’t so hot. He is fairly similar to Tiant, but I think just a little better. Makes my PHoM this year.

13. Willie Randolph (15) Sunnyday may hit me for this, but when I compared him to Whitaker this year, it actually helped him a bit. Yes, Whitaker is a better candidate, but not by as much as I expected. Randolph was a bit better defender and baserunner, his OPS is more OBP weighted (though still less impressive overall). Whitaker does better by Win Shares and has somewhat more of a peak. WARP1 has them basically equal, and I don't trust WARP3's adjustment that gives a big edge to Whitaker. Whitaker is better, but it's not a blowout in my eyes. Makes my PHoM this year.

14. Norm Cash (13) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism). He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1.

(14A Cool Papa Bell)

15. Elston Howard (16) If you give him fair credit for being stuck in the Negro Leagues and behind Yogi, he looks like the best catcher candidate on the ballot to me.

16. Alejandro Oms (14) A reasonable candidate, but doesn’t stand out for me in any particular manner.
17. Luis Tiant (17) Like I said, he is really close to Stieb. I think Stieb gets a little more credit because he was better at his best.
18. Bob Elliott (18) Recently, when I look at him, I like him a little better than any of the 70’s 3B candidates, partly because there’s just so many of them.
(18A Rube Foster)
19. Tony Perez (23) I really have a tough time differentiating him and Cash. He does have a good peak, but his late-70s years aren't much above average.
(19A Max Carey, 19B Nellie Fox)
20. Ben Taylor (19) Another solid candidate who might have been overlooked.
(21A Sam Thompson)
21. Dizzy Dean (21) Is his peak case really that much weaker than Keller and Kiner? I'm wondering. And with Stieb being a peak/prime guy, is he that much better than Dizzy?
22. Bobby Bonds (25) Had a solid run of very good to excellent seasons, and then just dropped out.
23. Ron Cey (24) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. He's wasn't any worse than Evans, but didn't last as long. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
24. Charley Jones (22) Even with the missed time credit, there's just not quite enough to make the ballot. Looking back at Kelly’s Keltner made me realize I had been underrating him slightly.
25. Vern Stephens (26) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
26. Orlando Cepeda (27) A little ways behind the other 1Bmen. They all have a stronger argument for one angle or another. He did get his career off to a great start, though.
(26A Richie Ashburn, 26B Ralph Kiner)
27. Rusty Staub (29) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Could rank higher. Definitely behind Perez.
28. Don Newcombe (28) Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument.
(28A Hughie Jennings, 28B George Sisler, 28C Rollie Fingers)
29. Roger Bresnahan (30) I understand his situation, but he doesn't even have 1000 games caught. A significantly better hitter than Howard, but I think if you give Elston fair credit, his career value wins out.
30. Kirby Puckett (new) Yes, some very good years, but his peak doesn't match Murphy's. I can't have him too far ahead of Dale.
31. Bucky Walters (34) Given the wartime discount, his ERA+ of 115 is just not impressive enough for me.
32. Jack Clark (20) Took another look at the recent OF, and I'm not quite as high on him as I had been.
33. Dave Bancroft
34. Dale Murphy
35. Pete Browning (35) An outstanding hitter, but a truly awful fielder, and played most of his career in the weaker league. I wouldn't be upset if he got in, but I don't quite see it.
36. Sal Bando
37. Tony Lazzeri
38. Ken Singleton
39. Tommy Bridges
40. Lou Brock
   107. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 09, 2007 at 11:14 AM (#2434511)
Nice to see that everybody is sending their ballots in early after the problem that we faced in the last election...

33 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: SWW, favre, Mark Shirk, Jeff M, Mike Webber, DavidFoss, DanG, mulder and scully, Trevor P., Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Tiboreau, Max Parkinson, KJOK, rico varian, Tom D, Mchael Bass and Dan Rosenheck.

If jimd doesn't post a ballot, I will use his prelim.

Unless sunnyday and Rusty post ballots that are constitutionally valid, they will not be counted.

The election will end exactly at 8 PM EDT. Results will be posted at 10.
   108. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 09, 2007 at 11:29 AM (#2434516)
fra paolo has also notified me that he will be getting in a ballot today.
   109. Howie Menckel Posted: July 09, 2007 at 12:43 PM (#2434536)
"Everyone thinks they're smarter than the market. If you are, in fact, smarter than the market over a long period of time, then I would like to subscribe to your newsletter."

zop, I'm going for my 4th fantasy baseball title in the last 6 years (2 pts out of 1st at the break, well ahead of 3rd place, 24th-year league). Would be my 9th title in 27 tries, well ahead of the longterm market.

Does that count?
   110. Rusty Priske Posted: July 09, 2007 at 12:55 PM (#2434542)
Do you remember when this project used to be fun? I do.

It boggles my mind that cutting and pasting the same information ballot after ballot is somehow 'of value' and thereby worth inclusion, even if the comments all just boil down to 'this is my opinion'. Do I leave valuable comments? I don't think so. Yet pointless comments are apparently 'adding' something.

You want comments? Here goes...

1. Dave Winfield

I consider him to be the most worthy player available.

2. Lou Whitaker

I consider him to be the second most worthy player available.

3. Tony Perez

I consider him to be the third most worthy player available.

4. George Van Haltren

I consider him to be the fourth most worthy player available.

5. Willie Randolph

Al Gore

6. Rusty Staub

I consider him to be the sixth most worthy player available.

7. Tommy Leach

I consider him to be the seventh most worthy player available.

8. Lou Brock

I consider him to be the eighth most worthy player available.

9. Mickey Welch

I consider him to be the ninth most worthy player available.

10. Graig Nettles

I consider him to be the tenth most worthy player available.

11. Reggie Smith

I consider him to be the eleventh most worthy player available.

12. Hugh Duffy

I consider him to be the twelfth most worthy player available.

13. Ken Singleton

I consider him to be the thirteenth most worthy player available.

14. Norm Cash

I consider him to be the fourteenth most worthy player available.

15. Dick Redding

I consider him to be the fifteenth most worthy player available.

Count it our don't. I really don't care.
   111. Howie Menckel Posted: July 09, 2007 at 12:57 PM (#2434544)
You just made a jackass of yourself.
That part does count.
   112. Rusty Priske Posted: July 09, 2007 at 01:02 PM (#2434547)
Go #### yourself. I quit.
   113. Rusty Priske Posted: July 09, 2007 at 01:06 PM (#2434550)
And I am reminded how unapologetic the submit button.

I, however, should not have lowered myself to his level. Sorry for that.

I really do quit, though.

What used to be an enjoyable exercise has turned into something else completely, thanks to people like Howie.

John, I don't blame you. You have been driven into a corner.

Joe thanks for starting something good. It isn't your fault it turned into this.
   114. Howie Menckel Posted: July 09, 2007 at 01:31 PM (#2434563)
If you want to retract your post 110, and have Murphy delete the whole exchange, that's fine by me (maybe he should do that anyway).

But your response was a direct slap in the face to him and to the rest of us, obviously.
Read the posts again.
You created 'a level'. I responded.
Don't kid yourself otherwise.

I wish it didn't come to this, but what is the proper response to getting spit on? "Thanks for the donation?"
   115. rico vanian Posted: July 09, 2007 at 01:46 PM (#2434570)
1) Dave Winfield - Great fielder. It was a pleasure watching him play for the Yankees. He may not have been the greatest hitter ever, but he was consistent for a long time and put up great career numbers.
2) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
3) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
4) Luis Aparicio – nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
5) Kirby Puckett- If players like Charlie Keller get in on short (but excellent) careers; than Puckett is a shoo-in. Great and clutch player who shouldn’t be panalized by a freak injury. He missed the years that would have pumped his career totals, but his legacy was made in the years he played.
6) Burleigh Grimes – 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
7) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
8)Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
9) Dale Murphy – A heckuva peek, gets points off for a lousy batting average.
10)Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
11) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
12) Lou Whitaker – Slightly better than Randolph.
13) Willie Randolph – Really, really good for a long time (even after he left the Yankees)
14 Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller got more votes than him.
15)Don Mattingly – Short but awesome peak (see comments on Puckett).

no soup for...

16) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
17)Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
18) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
19) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
20) Dave Parker – Drugs are bad, mmkay?
21) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
22) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
23) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
24) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
25) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
26) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
27) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
28) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
29) Jack Morris- Big game pitcher. Nuff said.
30) Tommy John &
31) Jim Kaat - Longevity certainly, Greatness no.
32) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
33) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
34) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
35) Dave Stieb – It would have been very interesting had he played for a better team to see what his career stats would have been.
36) Vida Blue – What might have been…
37) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
38) Bob Johnson – Much like the Jeffersons, he’s moving on up.
39) Don Baylor &
40) Reggie Smith The Hall of very good beckons
41) Bucky Walters- Nice peak, but not enough.
42) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
43) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really laud
   116. DanG Posted: July 09, 2007 at 02:27 PM (#2434612)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady production over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates. Finally, unlike Bill James and most voters I don’t give any “consecutive-seasons” bonus; value is value.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1, #2 and #11 were elected. In 2001, Winfield and Whitaker stroll in the doors of the HoM while Puckett, Parrish and Mattingly take on the backlog. Ozzie and Tram are the shorts-toppers in 2002; if Dawson is elected, it won’t be in a “walk”. In 2003, Murray and Sandberg are shoo-ins; Lee Smith and Brett Butler will get looked at. In 2004 it’s Molitor, Eckersley and a backlogger.

1) Dave Winfield – Career is so strong he’s in the top half of the Hall.

2) Lou Whitaker – Secondbasemen have short careers; he didn’t. Easy #2 on this ballot.

3) Tony Perez (3,5,3) – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great. <u>Firstbasmen with most Total Bases over a 15-year period, 1949-98</u>:

1977-91 4181 E. Murray
1967-81 3915 T.Perez
1959-73 3810 H. Killebrew
1972-86 3800 S. Garvey
1958-72 3684 O. Cepeda
1966-80 3430 L. May
1973-87 3400 C. Cooper
1963-77 3379 D. Allen
1973-87 3375 B. Buckner
1963-77 3360 W. McCovey

4) George Van Haltren (4,6,4) – We’ve now elected 15 players who were behind him in 1972. Huh? Were we so wrong about him for 50+ elections? No, we’re wrong now. Now in his 92nd year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

One non-HoMer here, Players with <u>3400 times on base 1871-1909</u>:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

5) Tommy Leach (5,7,5) – After his highest finish since 1945 in 1997, he held his position in the backlog; his candidacy’s “not dead yet”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). <u>Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10</u>:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

6) Burleigh Grimes (6,8,7) – Comparable to E. Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with <u>3800+ IP, 1916-75</u>. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller

7) Rusty Staub (7,9,8) – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with <u>OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA</u>:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

8) Jimmy Ryan (9,11,10) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. <u>Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903</u>:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
<u>Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918</u>
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

9) Graig Nettles (10,12,11) – Another looonggg career 1970’s star; Darrell Evans lite. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

10) Roger Bresnahan (8,10,9) – A couple more voters now (15) have high regard for The Duke of Tralee, as he slipped back into the top ten finishers. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with <u>OBP over .390, 1903-14, 3100+ PA</u>:
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

11) Rabbit Maranville (12,14,13) – Pulling a couple of my old Lost Causes out of the backlog. Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 134.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.0 (high of 8.0). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 105.5, easily in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

12) Wally Schang (13,15,14) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan, so he’s still on the radar. Players with <u>OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA</u>:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

13) Willie Randolph (14,--,15) – Maybe this time? Lou Whitaker lite, but better than Fox, who I had just off my ballot. As a “career voter”, I think he has the numbers.

14) Gavy Cravath (15,--,--) – Second time on ballot. Yeah, he has problems, but they all do. Had a long career, was a regular player into his late 30’s. And he had a high peak. What more do you need? Circumstances beyond his control kept him out of MLB for many years.

15) Alejandro Oms (--,--,--) – First time on ballot. MLEs show OPS+ of 125 in +9000 PA. Win shares 340. Those are obvious HoMer numbers for a CF. Only my hatred of Negro leaguers has made him wait this long. Seriously, even my hyper-skeptical eye has to cave at some point.

Top tenners off ballot:

Stieb seems to be getting a major “position shortage” boost. His case is based on his peak 1981-85. But there actually were many HoMers pitching regularly then: Carlton, Ryan, Blyleven, Seaver, Sutton, Niekro, Gossage, Fingers and maybe Eckersley.

If we elect Browning it will be proof of mistakes in the design of our system; if a guy who’s liked by about a third of the electorate, and ranked +50 by another third, can make it in, it isn’t right. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era.

Charley Jones is Pete Browning lite.

Redding is a good candidate if you put total faith in the translations showing a stratospheric peak.
   117. Esteban Rivera Posted: July 09, 2007 at 02:29 PM (#2434616)
2001 Ballot:

I was actually going to post on Friday before leaving work but was stuck until late that night babysitting some clients. Ugh. I sometimes hate my job. However, I love this part of my day. Here goes (and I'll get my ballot in earlier next time, I hope):

1. Dave Winfield – Winfield’s career seems to me like a very high end Beckleyesque career. The only unanswered question after looking over his career: How good or bad was his defense? Still, wonderful career and takes the top spot this year.

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me. Anticipating any new findings Mr. Wendt may find on Charley.

5. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder, in his case a centerfielder, he was one of the best ones in the league.

6. Lou Whitaker – As I mentioned in his thread, I believe his stats make him look better than he was offensively because of his platoon splits and the lack of a “hit” other players take for not being so bad as to be benched like Lou. Still, after accounting for this, he still makes my ballot and my PHOM.

7. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

8. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good.

9. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

10. Kirby Puckett – Basically a peak/prime vote. Does not have any filler years at beginning or end of career and his defense/offense combination for his position and era give him the edge over the other candidates this year.

11. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

12. Vic Willis –Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

13. Bob Elliott – The post someone made about holding his outfield time against him was true in my case. Not as much an outfielder as I had previously thought.

14. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

15. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Dick Redding – Too much uncertainty surrounding him to put him on my ballot.

Willie Randolph – Needs a little more peak to crack the top 15 (or for some of the guys ahead of him to get elected).

Dave Stieb – Not enough innings pitched to make the ballot.
   118. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 09, 2007 at 02:53 PM (#2434640)
Howie Menckel, how many people are in your league? How good are they? A collection of 10-15 friends hardly counts as The Market. You should read The Wisdom of Crowds, by James Surowiecki--it's a great analysis of what makes group choices accurate (very high number of participants, each with independent information and the ability to act on that information without influencing others, etc.).

That said, if you think you're so sharp, you should sign up for our league next year. 20 teams, live auction draft, $200 per team. There are some real sharks in those waters.
   119. ronw Posted: July 09, 2007 at 03:08 PM (#2434657)

I think the comment requirement is not necessarily designed to make it difficult for long-time voters, but rather to provide some minimal barrier to entry for new voters. At one point, all of us thought long and hard about comments and ballot placement (some of us still do) and I think that providing a general indication of the comments allows new voters to create their own system.

Because it is relatively easy to cut and paste old comments, the long-time voters have, for the most part, accepted this rule. However, we wouldn't want a new voter submitting a ballot without comments or explanation, and pointing to a ballot like yours when pressed for the "requirement" that he leave comments.

Finally, I am not sure why Howie has been singled out for vitriolic comment. I haven't seen anything he has posted that has been even remotely disturbing.
   120. ronw Posted: July 09, 2007 at 03:09 PM (#2434660)
I take it back, I hadn't read #111. As you said, sometimes the send button can wreak havoc.
   121. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 09, 2007 at 03:28 PM (#2434680)
I'll tip my hat into this ring and say that I strongly support the decision to disallow uncommented or lightly commented ballots, and that furthermore I think it would highly benefit the discussion for all of us to devote more than a throwaway phrase to each candidate. In particular, I am frustrated by comments that simply refer to a player's qualifications in the abstract (a la "most 3b putouts 7 times") and give little insight into the thought process that led to the ordinal ranking. What makes "4 hr titles 1 triple crown" inferior to "most 3b putouts 7 times" but superior to "imagine if he would have started earlier" (which I imagine is supposed to read "imagine if he had started earlier")? (Yest, I chose your ballot at random--there are tons that fit this pattern, don't feel singled out). I may not agree with many of Dr. Chaleeko's conclusions, but I respect that his votes are cast on the basis of a systematic ranking approach whose methodology has been explained to the group. The HoM project deserves such careful consideration from all of us.
   122. DavidFoss Posted: July 09, 2007 at 03:36 PM (#2434694)
Winfield & Whitaker are easy choices this week. As a long-time Twins fan, I've struggled with Puckett. It looks like he's getting decent support, but I left him off ballot this week due to my potential bias. I'll take a long second look next week. His ballot placement will generate some more discussion.

2001 Ballot

1. Dave Winfield -- Easily qualified this week, but nowhere near historically good. Sort of the Goose Goslin of his era. There's been a nice discussion of his historical placement here.
2. Lou Whitaker -- Hit at a high rate for a long time. By rate, head and shoulders better than other middle-infield candidates. Sure he was platooned a bit at the end.
3. Gavvy Cravath -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
4. John McGraw -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
5. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
6. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play. I don't know why his support hasn't held up.
7. Norm Cash -- Took another look at him. I have him higher than I had Keith Hernandez.
8. Roger Bresnahan -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
9. Bob Elliott -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
10. Mickey Welch -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
11. Frank Chance -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
12. Frank Howard -- This guy could really mash. 142 OPS+
13. Charley Jones -- I've been a long-time fan of his. Excellent -- and consistent -- rate stats, unfairly blacklisted.
14. Ernie Lombardi -- Catchers who hit this good are hard to find.
15. Al Rosen -- Hit like an inner circle guy for five seasons, but he came up late and then hurt his back.
16-20. Puckett, Browning, BJohnson, Nettles, Leach,
21-25. Bando, Cepeda, TJohn, Randolph, Cey,
26-30. Tiant, TPerez, Singleton, Brock, Staub,
31-35. Stieb, Walters, DMurphy, Kaat, Parker
   123. DavidFoss Posted: July 09, 2007 at 04:01 PM (#2434715)
I may not agree with many of Dr. Chaleeko's conclusions, but I respect that his votes are cast on the basis of a systematic ranking approach whose methodology has been explained to the group.

In Rusty's case, I'm pretty sure that he does have strong systemic approach to ranking the eligibles. He's always been very good at posting an early prelim so we know how his system differs from the consensus (career voter with a lower-than average positional adjustment for catchers and other gloves. Its the lower-than-consensus ranking of inner-circle catchers that usually sparks the most discussion.)

Nothing wrong with that, we all vary from consensus, but I think it shows that he does have a system. He doesn't just put Bill Dickey at the top of the ballot and rig the system to justify it. He plugs Bill Dickey into the system and then votes his system. I suppose it might actually be harder for such a voter to post comments because comments are inherently subjective and posting the numerical scores from the system might spark a little *too much* discussion. But, as Ron said, I do like the barrier for new voters.

Anyhow, it had been relatively quiet here for the past 60 years or so, but we used to have regular drama in the 1920s & 1930s and we got through it. I hope everyone feels welcome to keep voting if they so choose and are patient enough to set an example for any new voters we may get. People that have quit have come back as well.
   124. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:04 PM (#2434772)
This is Max Parkinson's ballot:

2001 Ballot:

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do. Also, I’m less impressed with offensive players whose main talent was walking than the group as a whole (yest obviously aside) – players like Darrell Evans and Ken Singleton are much lower for me than the consensus.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

1. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

2. Dave Winfield

Comfortably in. A step behind the Clemente/Burkett cohort, but well above other corner OFs that we’ve had no trouble electing.

3. Dick Redding

A strong early peak and longish career helps to overcome the lackluster middle parts of his career.

4. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

5. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

6. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

7. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

8. Bucky Walters

A very good peak, and good hitter to boot. He’s the edge right now for elected pitchers.

9. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

10. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.

11. George Burns

Maybe I’m crazy, but if he had put up the exact same numbers, and been an average CF as opposed to a terrific LF (that is, no change to his talent or performance, just what was written on the lineup card), I think he’d either be in already, or would have been before Roush.

12. Tony Perez

Good player – too bad knowing Joe Morgan doesn’t get him bonus points here.
13. Bobby Veach

Someone here (DanG?) used to post lists of top OPS+ by time period. Of the 1900-1920 group, the only unelected members of the top 20 are Cravath (no. 1), Veach and Bresnahan….

14. Luis Tiant

For me, he’s just outside in/out line. I wouldn’t cry if he makes it or he doesn’t.

15. Jim Rice

A monster for several years – lots of votes here for Singleton, and very very few for Rice. Recall that their best years were both ’77-’82 or so. I’d love to hear what GM at the time would have traded Rice for Singleton straight up.

Others of Note:

Bresnahan – I used to have to post this a lot, and now he’s crept back to the top 10. I give catchers playing time bonuses to try and mitigate the time lost due to the demands of the position. I think that I’m doing a good job, as my PHoM has as many catchers as any position other than SS and LF. Recall that many of his good offensive years came as an OF – he doesn’t get playing time bonuses in those years from me. Maybe he does from some of you….Also, he was no great shakes defensively.

Randolph – He’s in the mid ‘30s.
Whitaker – He’s just below Randolph.

Stieb – I grew up in Toronto during the ‘80s. I loved Dave Stieb. Dave Stieb was my favourite player. He’s no HoMer in my book.
   125. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:05 PM (#2434774)
I may not agree with many of Dr. Chaleeko's conclusions, but I respect that his votes are cast on the basis of a systematic ranking approach whose methodology has been explained to the group.

Dan, I reciprocate. ; )
   126. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:06 PM (#2434775)
John, was that Max's ballot in post 124? Thanks!
   127. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2434783)
Well, due to my extended absence from the project, I had no idea how Rusty's system works, and I would have been enlightened if he had simply taken the time to summarize his methodology and how he has applied it to the current batch of candidates on his ballot. Who knows, maybe he would have convinced me to reevaluate someone.

That said, Dr. Chaleeko, the absence of David Ismael Concepción from your ballot is entirely unforgivable and must be rectified immediately.
   128. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:28 PM (#2434793)
John, was that Max's ballot in post 124? Thanks!

Yes and posted his name at the top of his ballot a few minutes after I initially posted it, but you probably didn't see it.
   129. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:34 PM (#2434801)
2001 ballot

Sorry that i have been so absent but I have a lot of work to do this summer and the place where I am staying does not have internet access. So again, this will be a short ballot. I hope to get back to doing my regular posts/ballots/analysis shortly.

PHOM: Winfield, Whitaker, and Mattingly with GVH, Shocker, and McGraw on deck. My ballot is, oddly enough, the cut off line for my PHOM right now.

1. Dave Winfield
2. Lou Whitaker - These two are neck and neck and coudl go either way, sorry if I dont' have any real arguments for why Winfield is above Whitaker.
3. Dick Redding - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball ear (Smokey Joe is obviously #1)
4. Hugh Duffy - Very nice peak
5. Dave Stieb - Very nice prime, fron an underrated era
6. Bucky Walters - Very, very similar to Stieb
7. Elston Howard - Very similar to HOMer Quince Trouppe
8. Pete Browning - Great hitter, very nice peak
9. Gavvy Cravath - Very nice peak, career obscured by days in AA
10. Don Mattingly - Very similar to Hernandez and Sisler. I don't understand the love for the previous two and not for Donny Baseball
11. Dizzy Dean - High peak pitcher, Koufax lite. That isn't enough for some, but it is for me.
12. Vic Willis - Many good years, more of a prime guy
13. Alejandro Oms - Slightly above GVH for me but similar
14. Roger Bresnahan - Best MLB catcher between 1900-1920
15. Larry Doyle - Soudl probably be considered with 3B, still a great hitter for an infielder

16-20 GVH, Shocker, McGraw, Rosen, Charley Jones

Jones - I am not givign full blacklist credit, otherwise he would be on my ballot
Randolph - Why him and not Rizzuto. I may be a Yankee fan but he is not my cup of tea, inthe 30's
Perez - In the 50's for me, I don't understand the attraction

Puckett - This may take some eplaining. I see him as part of a group of peak/prime good hitting CFers that includes Averill, Doby, Wynn, Berger, and Dale Murphy. However, there is a faultline in that group for me between Averill, Doby, Wynn and Berger, Pucket, Murphy. Puckett is currently at #25 and I see him as too similar to Wally Berger to merit induction.
Parrish - He is close, but I like Howard and Bresnahan more. Above guys like Munson, Tenace, Schang, and Lombardi for me though. #27 and my 3rd ranked catcher.
Stewart - I have somethign close to his rookie card as a Phillies (a 1985 Topps I believe) but I can't argue for his HOM induction.
   130. Mr Dashwood Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:36 PM (#2434807)
I slightly prefer peak to career value. I also believe strongly in positional balance, although I’ll break with it to put appropriate candidates in “elect me” slots. I start ranking players by +5 WARP3 seasons, then go on from thereby studying traditional stats. I also value being the best in the league at one’s position for an extended period (preferably four years running).

1) Dave Winfield I found it very hard to choose between Whitaker and Winfield for the top spot. In the end, I gave it to Winfield owing to his 3000 hits. However, neither of them is quite the dominant force I like to see. If anything, Whitaker has a better claim than Winfield to dominate the league at his position.

2 Lou Whitaker His failure to remain on the HoF ballot was a disgrace to the voters, I’ve decided, although I’m not convinced he is a HoFer. Clearly the best 2b in the American League during the middle 1980s, and one of the best either side of that, but he’s not a well-rounded player.

3 Willie Randolph I’m not entirely happy about ranking him here. He was not at all dominant at his position, when you look at the stats, but he’s got more WARP3 value than anyone else on my ballot.

4 Tony Perez Maybe Dave Concepcion offers a little more career value than Perez, but Perez has a better prime.

5 Dave Concepcion Concepcion stands out at his position and has more career value than anyone else except three of the four above him.

6 Kirby Puckett Every one of Puckett’s 12 seasons was +5 WARP3.

7 Bill Mazeroski I’m breaking with my strict positional balance to play favourites. Maz’s Win Shares credentials may look insufficient, but where WARP is concerned he’s a worthy candidate. And when you look at NL 2b of his time, there’s none better. As good a prime as my number 8, but more career value.

8 Bob Johnson He’s new to my ballot, and I like him for his 12 +5 WARP3 seasons.

9 Luis Tiant I don’t see much “elect me” value in any of the pitchers remaining, but Tiant has the most valuable prime, albeit mainly by virtue of its length.

10 Pie Traynor A very good 3b for a decade.

11 Thurman Munson Depending on where you bookend Bill Freehan’s prime, Munson is better or almost as good. His career value is almost equal. Why isn’t he attacting more votes?

12 Alejandro Oms A very good outfielder, one I’m still adapting him to my new system.

13 George Van Haltren A player who does much better under my new system, compared with how he did before, hitting the seeming magical 12 +5 WARP3 target.

14 Phil Rizzuto Throw in war credit, and in his prime he looks better than Luis Aparicio and Dave Bancroft. Maybe even better than Concepcion, but that might be giving him too much benefit of the doubt.

15 Tommy Bridges Bridges hasn’t got the same career value as Dave Stieb, but he’s got more +5 WARP3 seasons and fractionally more peak.

<u>Top tens not on ballot.</u>
Stieb lost out on a direct comparison with Bridges.
Cannonball Dick Redding requires more study under the new system, but I’ve always had reservations about him.
Pete Browning, Charley Jones, and Roger Bresnahan all fall short on length of prime, although Jones mounts a strong case.
   131. Jim Sp Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:36 PM (#2434809)
Proposed new process for posting:

1) compose a post
2) before hitting submit, ask yourself "Will this make John Murphy's blood pressure rise?"
3) if the answer to #2 is no, hit the submit button
   132. TomH Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:45 PM (#2434820)
Modified Proposed new process for posting:

4) if the answer to #2 is yes, advise Grandma on a good counselor you know, as well some good BP medicine, and hit the ol' submit button anyway.... :)
   133. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 09, 2007 at 06:17 PM (#2434844)
4) if the answer to #2 is yes, advise Grandma on a good counselor you know, as well some good BP medicine, and hit the ol' submit button anyway.... :)

Heh. Fortunately, I take after my mother's side when it comes to hypertension. :-)

But Jim makes a good point for all of us. Before we post a comment, make sure you really want everyone to see it. I know I have wished I done that a few times in the past myself.

As for today's fireworks, I personally wasn't upset over anything that Rusty did because I knew it wasn't directed at me but over a variety of things that have happened over the "years," many that I can empathize with. Not that he couldn't have handled it better and I know he understands that now. I also know Howie is a dedicated long-time voter and contributor here and that his comments were in defense of the HoM and our process and not to be taken personally.

I have e-mailed him about staying on and I hope he does so. Today's blowup wasn't any worse than mine with Gadfly a while back and we were able to work it out the same day. I hope that's the case here.
   134. Howie Menckel Posted: July 09, 2007 at 07:12 PM (#2434902)
Don't usually check in from work, but...

If Post 110 was not as incendiary as I think it was - if it doesn't seem like a middle finger waved at the whole project - I'd be interested to hear that point of view.

I have not generally been in the middle of most of the various controversies over the years, but fingers like this waved right in my face do tend to produce a firm response.
I also don't carry grudges. I don't even generally remember who I ever disagreed with. As far as I know, I never have done so with this particular poster.

I'm not seeking to leave the project, and I hope no one else does, either. But a tiny amount of respect for the process is always nice. If that's too much to ask, maybe it is time to leave. There are many ways to express disagreement that stand a good chance of not drawing out a Post 111. Yes, I responded strongly, as well.
I don't expect to continue with this sort of commentary. I hope no one else does, either. I just don't what an alternative response to 110 is without feeling like you're allowing someone else to be a cyber-bully. Suggestions welcomed.

Finally, my apologies for this dust-up being in the ballot thread. I'd hope that it could be moved to Discussion where it belongs.
   135. mulder & scully Posted: July 09, 2007 at 07:26 PM (#2434923)
Prelim: My ballot may be quite a bit different, but here are my factors by how much weight I give them

1. 7 year prime
2. 3 years consecutive peak
3. rank within era and position
4. career
5. per season of 648 PA - benefits players like Chance, hurts those who played in high offense eras like the 1890s
I give bonus for being an all-star by win shares or STATS
I include time missed for WWI and II in most cases.
I include time in high minors if a player is blocked because of when he played - independent minors.
I include time for some suspensions: Charley Jones - yes, Joe Jackson - no
I believe in MLEs for skin color.

1. Charley Jones - Receives full credit for his missing 2-plus years. A top 5 performer by win shares in many years. The best prime (sched adjusted) available. A top 5 peak. See the "Keltner-style" analysis on his thread for my complete feelings. A note to those who say his career is too short: If you look at what percentage of his team's games he played, he had almost the exact same career length as Elmer Flick. Was his career too short?
2. Mickey Welch - I think we missed on him. Of the great pre-60' pitchers, he had some of the worst run and defensive support - compare to Clarkson or Radbourn or Keefe when he wasn't with NY. Chris J.'s run support index shows that his wins are real.
3. Pete Browning - A fantastic hitter. I know he had his best run in the early AA, but he had a great year in the PL as well. Had a great peak and prime score in my system - which knocks him for being fragile.
4. Bucky Walters - Great peak - top 4 pitcher in majors 4 times. This ranking includes deductions for 1943-45.
5. Dave Winfield - An obvious HoMer, I just think the other 4 are more obvious. I think Jones, Browning, and Walters are further above the established norms for their positions than Winfield is (remember I am not a career voter) and Welch was unfairly ignored/idiosyncratic vote. Great prime candidate. He really put together a great run with the Padres.
6. Bus Clarkson - ranking is based on the revised MLEs. He could hit. He could field well enough. Career hampered by the integration-era destruction of the NeLs and quotas.
7. Hugh Duffy - Great defender. Great prime and peak. All-star 5 times. twice best in league. Moved to LF because McCarthy couldn't hit anymore and you needed two CF in Boston's park - see SABR's new stadium book. Not at the level of several HOM 90s outfielders but comfortably above the CF standards.
8. Tommy Leach - Great defense at third and CF - gold glove level at both. A top-15 third baseman / a top 25 CF. Great extended prime.
9. Vic Willis - Best pitcher in NL two times, second best in NL two times. Almost even with McGinnity.
10. Gavy Cravath - Full credit for 1909-1911. Great peak and prime - 7 times an all-star including 1910 and 1911. Unique career that was a result of his time/place.
11. George Burns - Did everything well. Took a huge number of walks. Hit for good power. Never missed a game. Scored a lot of runs. Don't have my numbers at work, so I can't tell you the number of times he was an all-star. I believe he was a top-10 position player 8 or 9 times in a row.
12. Don Newcombe - With credit for Korea and the first month of 1949, he is an all-star in 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1955, and 1956.
13. Wilbur Cooper - An all-star 8 times.
14. Lou Whitaker - The best available 2nd baseman. He ranks the best among modern (post 1930) second baseman by a combination of prime and career. Sorry, my numbers are at home.
15. Roger Bresnahan - Excellent peak. Playing CF well is not a demerit. In front by a comfortable margin over Schang, Munson, Parrish, and Tenace.

Don Mattingly - First basemen have very high standards. The descriptions of Sisler- or Terry-lite ring true to me. Neither Terry nor Sisler are in my PHOM yet.
Kirby Puckett - I'll look at the defense again, but the peak wasn't historic and neither was the prime; neither STATS nor win shares have him as an all-star often; and despite not having a decline phase, his per season totals are not great.
Lance Parrish - about 50th, 4th best catcher available after Bresnhan (only played 68% of games at catcher), Schang, and Elston Howard.
Willie Randolph is behind Whitaker, Scales, Doyle, Monroe, and Evers for me. Durability is an issue / lack of big years. I think the Yankees were a collection of HoVG. You can be quite dominant with such a combination. But more deserving than Fox by far.
Dick Redding is 4 big years with no shoulder seasons and his 1920s numbers from the HoF study add nothing to his candidacy.
Tony Perez - First basemen have high standards and he is not close for peak or prime performance.
Dave Stieb - In my top 25. I am going to have to make some adjustment for the 1980s. He was fantastic in the first half of the decade. Now that I have a new job and I can quit my night job, I'll be able to take a new look at a lot of factors.

George Scales will have to wait for 2002. Chris, I'll email some information and numbers to you in the next day or two along with a different email address.

Next year, I'll have PHOM inductions for various years back to 95 or so, plus a reconsideration of Scales, Ohms, Moran, and a selected group of 70s/80s performers.

Use This Ballot
   136. Rusty Priske Posted: July 09, 2007 at 08:42 PM (#2434987)
I am checking in for the first time this morning. My only interaction since my last post was receiving three e-mails, two of which were from John.

John seems to understand completely what my frustration is. Howie, on the other hand, is reading something that isn't there.

suunyday made a post that seemed to be meant as a comment that if people weren't going to be forced to write comments, why should he write any?

In teh follow up, I was singled out as someone who wasn't leaving comments. (Which is pretty much true. Other than stating my opinion on the Willie Randolph situation, my comments were meagre.)

I made a post that was meant to show what I thought about forcing people to write comments considering most of the comments posted (including mine, when I have done them), don't add anything to the discussion about the value of the players.

Howie responded to it in a very insulting way and I read it at a point where I was already hanging on by a thread. I nearly quit last 'year' over the horrible treatment of Joe and now it seems that the rules lawyers are scoring again.

THAT is what led me to say I quit. John has asked me to reconsider, just as Joe asked me to last 'year'.

I am not redoing my ballot, mostly because I am not going to do it between now and the deadline. Feel free to not count it. As I said in my second ballot, I don't care.

Will I be back next 'year'? We'll see. If I'm not it will be because taking part does not feel enjoyable anymore. Maybe I'll change my mind between now and then.
   137. jimd Posted: July 09, 2007 at 08:57 PM (#2435001)
I'm back. No changes to my preliminary; just some additional commentary.

Ballot for 2001 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has had an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system. Important parts of my peak and prime assessment are both the quantity and quality of a player's "All-Star" selections. These are the seasons where the player is able to make a positive contribution to a typical "playoff contender" (top 25% of participating teams). I use both WARP and Win Shares, though I emphasize the former because of its demonstrated overall yearly positional balance throughout baseball history.

I continue to reexamine my ballot carefully as we go deep into the backlog.

1) L. WHITAKER -- These two are extremely close in my rating system. Prime 1979-93. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1983; WARP adds 1982. Other star seasons include 1981, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993. Honorable Mention in 1979 and 1988.

2) D. WINFIELD -- Overrated but still an easy HOMer. Prime 1975-88. Best player by WARP in 1979, candidate by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1979. Other star seasons include 1976, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1984, 1985, 1988, 1992. WS adds 1981 and 1983 in LF. Honorable mention in 1975, 1986, 1987, plus 1982 in LF.

3) D. STIEB -- The lack of support here is surprising to me. Best pitcher of the early 1980's. Prime 1980-85. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985; WARP adds 1981. Other star seasons include 1980, 1988, and 1989.

4) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

5) K. PUCKETT -- Joins the backlog near the top. Prime 1985-1995. Best player candidate in 1988 and 1992 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1986 and 1988 by WS; 1992 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1987, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1994. HM in 1985, 1993, and 1995.

6) F. TANANA -- More good seasons than Gossage. Poster-child for pitcher abuse. Still has the peak and also has the career. Prime 1974-77. Best player candidate in 1976 and 1977 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1976; WARP adds 1975, 1977. Other star seasons include 1974, 1984. Honorable mention in 1987.

7) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

8) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

9) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

10) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

11) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

12) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

13) D. DEAN -- High peak candidate. Prime 1932-36. Candidate for best player in MLB baseball, 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

14) W. RANDOLPH -- No peak. Long low prime with a good career. Prime 1976-80, 1984-89. 1st team MLB All-Star (2b) by WS in 1980. Other star seasons include 1976, 1978, 1979, 1985, 1987, 1989. HM in 1977, 1982, 1986.

15) B. BONDS -- Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

16) D. REDDING -- Long career candidate. Falls off due to influx of new candidates.

17) R. CEY -- Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

18) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

19) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

20) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Don Mattingly, Frank Viola, Pie Traynor,
24-26) Rabbit Maranville, Ron Guidry, Thurman Munson,
27-29) Elston Howard, Lance Parrish, Dizzy Trout,
30-32) Jim McCormick, Bobby Veach, Norm Cash,
33-35) Jim Whitney, Jack Morris, Vida Blue,
36-38) Graig Nettles, Roger Bresnahan, Urban Shocker,
39-42) Dale Murphy, Charley Jones, Bob Johnson, Hugh Duffy,

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.
   138. . . . . . . Posted: July 09, 2007 at 09:06 PM (#2435008)
Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

You elected Charlie Keller to your pHOM without war credit, John?
   139. jimd Posted: July 09, 2007 at 09:28 PM (#2435026)
You elected Charlie Keller to your pHOM without war credit, John?

John posted Max Parkinson's ballot. You'll have to wait until Max gets back.
   140. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 09, 2007 at 09:30 PM (#2435027)
You elected Charlie Keller to your pHOM without war credit, John?

That's actually Max that you're referring to, 'zop.
   141. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 09, 2007 at 09:31 PM (#2435028)
Looks like Jim beat me to it. :-)
   142. Spencer Benedict Posted: July 09, 2007 at 09:39 PM (#2435036)
1. Dave Winfield: Exceptional all around player. So well rounded a player that its hard to discuss any specific facet of his game.

2. Lou Whitaker: I for one like pop from the middle infield. Whitaker provided a lot of it in an era when backup shortstops were not blasting opposite field home runs with regularity.

3. Tony Oliva: Pretty much at or near the top of the league for eight years. I would like more “career value”, but his failure to “compile” results in only minimal penalty for me.

4. Lou Brock: The SB’s had a lot of value during this guy’s era.

5. Orlando Cepeda: Had one foot in the door before he was 26. He won an MVP after that.

6. Left Gomez: 125 career ERA+, 87 games over .500, consistent all-star.

7. Dizzy Dean: Had a few more top flight years than McLain but not as many as Koufax. 2.60 MVP shares.

8. Indian Bob Johnson: Pumped out those .295/.380/.500 seasons.

9. Chuck Klein: His “Most Similar by Age” comps are staggering. Even discounting for the ballpark, it’s a pretty good recommendation for inclusion here.

10. Luis Tiant: Two-time ERA+ leader and four-time twenty game winner

11. Carl Mays: 81 games over .500 and a career 119 ERA+. B-R says he is the cousin of Joe Mays.

12. Dave Stieb: Was off my ballot until I compared him to the guys who are on my ballot. Fits in well at the middle to low part of the ballot.

13. Burleigh Grimes: I know its situation dependent, but the five 20 win seasons have to count for something.

14. Willie Randolph: Will manage his way off my ballot if he keeps using Julio Franco.

15. Pete Browning: The original masher – consistently near the lower end or just off my ballot.

The most similar player to Tony Perez on B-R is Harold Baines, which I think sums things up rather well. I would like more playing time than that offered by Bresnahan or Charley Jones. I may be slighting Redding, but from what I know he wasn’t very peaky and there are a number of hurlers like that who are not on my ballot.
   143. . . . . . . Posted: July 09, 2007 at 09:42 PM (#2435042)

That's actually Max that you're referring to, 'zop.

OK, many apologies. I was completely confused! I thought you were a pro-war-credit guy, and I distinctly remember you voting for Keller!
   144. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 09, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2435046)
OK, many apologies. I was completely confused! I thought you were a pro-war-credit guy, and I distinctly remember you voting for Keller!

Yeah, I could see how that would confuse you. :-)
   145. KJOK Posted: July 09, 2007 at 10:58 PM (#2435088)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 231 Win Shares, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

3. LOU WHITAKER, 2B. 36 POW, 351 Win Shares, 109 WARP1, 369 RCAP & .591 OWP in 9,967 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. A better hitting version of Willie Randolph.

4. DAVE WINFIELD, RF. 31 POW, 459 Win Shares, 120 WARP1, 242 RCAP & .619 OWP in 12,358 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Played at a high level for a long time.

5. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 237 Win Shares, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

6. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate besides Winfield not elected.

7. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

8. WILLIE RANDOLPH, 2B. 37 POW, 312 Win Shares, 108 WARP1, 235 RCAP & .550 OWP in 9,462 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Super glove at important defensive position, played a long time, and he could hit too.

9. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

10. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, and better than Concepcion, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

11. BUS CLARKSON, SS/3B. Estimated 123 OPS+ over 8,478 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Hitting far exceeds guys like Marcelle, Dandridge, etc.

12. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

13. JIM FREGOSI, SS. 26 POW, 76 WARP1, 203 RCAP & .565 OWP in 7,402 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Just needs a little more something – defense, or career length, etc. – but still historically underrated, and perhaps just as good as Dobie Moore and better than Concepcion.

14. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

15. KIRBY PUCKETT, CF. 24 POW, 281 Win Shares, 81 WARP1, 209 RCAP & .602 OWP in 12,358 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Needs a little more value to be any higher.



LANCE PARRISH, C. 22 POW, 248 Win Shares, 79 WARP1, 130 RCAP & .487 OWP in 7,797 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Due to his hitting, can’t see ranking him above Tenace.

DON MATTINGLY, 1B. 16 POW, 263 Win Shares, 76 WARP1, 127 RCAP & .624 OWP in 7,721 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Nothing special for a 1st baseman.


PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

DAVE STIEB, P.25 POW, 88 WARP1, 236 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 122 ERA+ in 2,895 innings. Too many guys like Tommy Bridges ahead of him.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, 71 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .697 OWP in 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

GAVVY CRAVATH, RF. 18 POW, 202 Win Shares, 59 WARP1, 238 RCAP & .709 OWP in 4,644 PA’s. Def: FAIR. McGraw provided better offense in more MLB PA’s at a tougher position.

ALEJANDRO OMS, CF/RF. Estimated 126 OPS+ over 5,152 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Eric Davis. That won’t cut it in this crowd.
   146. SWW Posted: July 09, 2007 at 11:08 PM (#2435094)
I was on the road during the middle of June. Did I miss any important discussion about last year’s balloting?

In all seriousness, given the hubbub from last year, I apologize for the lateness of my ballot. I mean no disrespect to John or the ballot counters or anyone. The week just worked out that way. So let’s do this.

<u>2001 Ballot</u>
1) David Mark Winfield – “Mr. May”
Oh, just kidding about the nickname – although that would be hilarious on his plaque. An easy top-of-the-ballot pick, with consistent hitting and remarkable durability. Plus, anybody who causes George Steinbrenner to hire a felon in an effort to sabotage them is alright with me. 49th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 94th on Sporting News Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
2) Louis Rodman Whitaker Jr – “Sweet Lou”
In my heart, I’m not sure he should go this high. But the statistics point to a very solid career, and based purely on the principle of who most deserves induction, no one else ranks as high. There are several names jockeying for the title of “Best Second Baseman on the Ballot”. For me, Whitaker gets the nod.
3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
My white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. I heartily encourage people to review his case. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
5) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
A similar pair. Tony has the edge in Win Shares. Cha Cha shows a greater impact compared to his team and his league. Tony has higher career and higher prime numbers, so right now he gets the advantage. This will come up again on this ballot, though. Perez is 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
6) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. I think another review of pitchers may be in order, but I still believe that the pitchers of this era get short shrift.
7) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
8) Dale Bryan Murphy
A pleasant surprise. Similar in some ways to Hugh Duffy, in the peak-heavy nature of his career. A lot more of a prime, though, with 6 appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares. New York Times Top 100.
9) Kirby Puckett
Surprised to see him here. Writers tend to overstate his career, overusing words like “stocky” and “fireplug”. But the man put up the numbers, with 6 Top 10 AL Win Shares seasons, and probably could have accumulated more (although I haven’t factored that in here). Also, if you’re like me and you ever ordered a McDonald’s Puck Pack, you’re still trying to burn that fat off. Sheesh. 86th on Sporting News Top 100. 95th on SABR Top 100. 98th on Bill James Top 100.
10) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
11) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
12) David Gene Parker – “Cobra”
If I’ve learned anything through my association with this project, it’s that while I’m a career voter, the importance of having a strong prime has grown a great deal in my estimation. It’s that thinking that keeps Parker on my ballot, and while I’m always reviewing the matter, I’m feeling alright about this placement. There’d be no doubt, if only he’d laid off the Colombian marching powder.
13) Willie Larry Randolph
Compares very favorably to Whitaker, and edges out Doyle at his position. I still see a very flat career arc, but it’s a very strong one nonetheless, so I can’t really justify leaving him off.
14) Graig Nettles
I remember him as a very consistent third baseman; no Schmidt or Brett, but significantly better than, say, Carney Lansford. I’m a little surprised he placed this high, but the numbers point to a strong career. Similar to Darrell Evans, who I thought went in kind of fast.
15) Donald Arthur Mattingly – “Donnie Baseball”
A huge shock. Considering the toll taken by injuries, he has really impressive seasonal numbers, including ink. Compares quite favorably with Perez and Cepeda, which makes me think that I either have them too high or Mattingly too low. We’re certainly not hurting for first basemen, but he does far better than I anticipated. Damn Yankees.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s might be better than Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. So many frickin’ center fielders.
David Andrew Stieb
I always liked Dave. Always thought he was a little underrated. But looking at the stats, he’s not that exceptional. Why him and not Dennis Martinez? I have many pitchers ahead of him.
Charles Wesley Jones
I understand his troubles with blacklisting and such. The three year gap is devastating. However, the numbers he did put up point to a rather flat career arc, and I have him behind Frank Howard and George J. Burns in left field.
Roger Philip Bresnahan – “The Duke of Tralee”
I have no problem classifying him as a catcher, and certainly the best catcher currently eligible. But is he so great a catcher that he merits induction? I’m not so sure.
   147. Ken Fischer Posted: July 09, 2007 at 11:50 PM (#2435128)
2001 Ballot

1-Dave Winfield 415 WS
A flop in post-season…but 152 Gray Ink. Gets top spot for the volume of his work.

2-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking. I know…I’m a Van diehard…GVH and Stephens. I just can’t drop them down. They belong.

4-Mickey Welch 354 WS
300+ wins are great in any era.

5-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

6-Lou Whitaker 351 WS
Good Win shares for 2B. Top AL 2B of 80s. Sandberg is his comp.

7-Craig Nettles 321 WS
Great plays on the big stage. His low career batting average keeps him out of the other hall. He probably stayed around 3 years too long.

8-Willie Randolph 312 WS
Pee Wee Reese is his comp. The Pirates should’ve kept him.

9-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

10-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

11-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years).

12-Pete Browning 225 WS
A great Players League year shows Pete belongs.

13-Roger Bresnahan 231 WS
Made 3 major position changes in his career. His stats are hurt by the Dead Ball era.

14-Tony Mullane 399 WS
Gray Ink 198. Late in his career won 25 games after the mound was moved. Too bad he was at the end.

15-Tony Perez 349 WS
A career pick for the volume of his work.

Stieb-need to study more…still see Redding, Welch, Mays and Mullane ahead of him.

Jones-too short of a career to be ready to pull the trigger on.
   148. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 09, 2007 at 11:56 PM (#2435131)
2001 ballot

The new: I'm introducing a flat, subjective quality-of-play segregation discount for pre-1947 players (applied to MLB'ers and Negro Leaguers alike) abov and beyond the standard deviation adjustment, basically used as a tiebreaker among players of otherwise similar value. I've done a bit of research into pitcher WARP, not enough to draw any conclusions I can firmly stand behind, but enough to add a new name to my ballot. I'm increasing the size of my catcher bonus.

The old: My voting is based entirely on my WARP system, whose methodology is elaborated with great detail in the thread devoted to it, and my salary estimator. The biggest discrepancies this causes with the group involve position scarcity (I think we grossly underrate shortstops), era preference (I like guys from difficult=to-dominate years like the 1970s and 80s), and durability vs. longevity (I vote heavily on peak as measured by rate, but don't care much whether a guy squeezed his value into 162-game seasons).

The ballot:

1. John McGraw. Sometimes it really is just as simple as a .500 OBP. Yes, it's a short career, and yes, he couldn't stay on the field. But he was an inner-circle Hall of Famer when he did play, with a skill set (on-base percentage, speed, and defense) that was ideally suited for his environment, in an era when 3B was much more demanding than it was later. WS and WARP do not detect any of this value, and furthermore unfairly penalize McGraw due to their preference for "just showing up." McGraw was a game-changing player the likes of which baseball has rarely seen since, and no one else on this ballot was half the player that McGraw was when he managed to get onto the diamond.

2. Lou Whitaker. I get branded as a peak voter, but my system has plenty of love for Sweet Lou, who was never an MVP candidate but just kept churning out those All-Star seasons in a very tough to dominate league. The ultimate prime candidate (for voters sensitive to era and position scarcity), and an easy selection.

3. David Concepción. My pet candidate. To rehash: His 1973-82 are virtually identical to the best of Ozzie Smith, Ozzie just bests him on longevity (especially in the field). In an era where a banjo-hitting shortstop was worth his weight in gold, and a league where a 150 OPS+ was good enough to lead the league most years, Concepción was a unique commodity and gave the Reds a massive head start over every other team in the league at the game's most critical position.

4. Roger Bresnahan. Like McGraw and Concepción, towers over his positional peers. Since I've never been one to lose sleep over in-season durability, Bresnahan holds great appeal for me.

5. Charley Jones. Second-best hitter with a career to speak of on the ballot (after Browning), and easily outdistances him on the back of more time spent in the stronger league, far superior fielding, and one year of blacklist credit.

I'm just going to fill in the rest now so the ballot counts, then I'll fill in the comments...

6. Phil Rizzuto
7. Reggie Smith
8. Pete Browning
9. Dave Winfield
10. Johnny Pesky
11. Dave Bancroft
12. Luis Tiant
13. Graig Nettles
14. Wally Schang
15. Burleigh Grimes
   149. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 10, 2007 at 12:01 AM (#2435135)
The election is now over. Results will be posted in 2 hours.
   150. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 10, 2007 at 12:25 AM (#2435166)
OK, comments.

6. Phil Rizzuto. I love my shortstops. With appropriate war credit, Rizzuto has a strong prime to go with the huge MVP year and fistful of rings. All-world glove and a premium bat for the position.

7. Reggie Smith. I'm unconcerned by his lack of in-season durability. I do like the offense equal to inducted bats like Jimmy Wynn combined with Win Shares-approved defense, half a career in CF, a low-standard deviation era, and a year of Japan credit.

8. Pete Browning. Best hitter on the ballot, bar none. Bad fielding, unimpressive career length, ease of competition, and now my segregation penalty drag him down. But man, could he ever hit. I definitely think he belongs.

9. Dave Winfield. Wow, am I unimpressed. Maybe he wasn't as bad a fielder as FRAA thinks, but WS doesn't see much to like with the glove either, and Dial confirms that he was pretty putrid by the late 80s. He's got the big MVP-type year in '79, which I love, no doubt, and a strong All-Star year in 1984, but other than that it's 5 borderline All-Star years and a lot of filler. I give him zero credit for 1993 through 1995, as a replacement DH would have outhit him. I'm actually voting him higher here than my system says to, mainly because 'zop has convinced me he was crushed by component park effects. He would be in my PHoM...but not by much. A major disappointment.

10. Johnny Pesky. The new Charlie Keller...or, if you prefer, Hughie Jennings. Had absolutely monster years immediately before and after the war, with superlative defense and best-at-position offense, and also played 1941 in the minors at a high major league All-Star level (I don't give him minor league credit for that year, but it does strengthen the case for the quality of his war credit). Then added just enough post-integration to get over the hump.

11. Dave Bancroft. Doesn't have the peak seasons of Pesky or Rizzuto, and didn't face the unfavorable league conditions that Concepción did. But was the best hitter of the bunch. They all deserve to get in if you ask of that group.

12. Luis Tiant. I don't have a working system for pitchers yet, but on pure run prevention (adjusted for defense), he seems to have the best combination of peak and career.

13. Graig Nettles. An all-time great with the glove, with a low replacement level and a difficult-to-dominate league.

14. Wally Schang. With greater sensitivity to early-game catching conditions, Schang's hitting and longevity stand out.

15. Burleigh Grimes. In my research on pitcher standard deviations and translated innings pitched, I noticed that pitcher performance in the 1920's was very tightly bunched together both in terms of durability and effectiveness. Grimes seems to be the best of that bunch.Left off:

Willie Randolph: I like him. I really do. But he only had one peak year, and 2B in the late 1980's was exceptionally deep. Dwarfed by the comparison to Whitaker.

Dick Redding: the MLE's are just too sketchy to justify his inclusion.

Dave Stieb: Just not enough outside of the big years..which weren't even *that* big.

Tony Perez: Please God no. Scarcely better than a freely available first baseman after his useful 1969-73 period.
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