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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Monday, July 09, 20072001 Results: Three W’s Make It Into the Hall of Merit: Winfield, Whitaker and Willie!In his first year of eligibility, strong-armed slugger Dave Winfied sailed into the Hall of Merit with an impressive 95% of all possible points. Star second baseman Lou Whitaker, another newbie, received strong support from the electorate with 77% of all possible points. Last but not least, Yankee great Willie Randolph did the squeezing out this time (unlike in our last election when Fingers won by a nose over him) when he bested 19th century batsman Pete Browning (does he finally make it in 2002 after over 100 years of eligibility?) Willie received 28% of all possible points in his 4th year of eligibility. Rounding out the top-ten were: Dave Stieb, Charley Jones, Cannonball Dick Redding, Roger Bresnahan, Bob Johnson and Hugh Duffy. A record 101 candidates were named on a ballot this election, breaking the 1995-96 mark of 100. RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 n/e Dave Winfield 1065 47 27 12 3 2 1 1 1 2 n/e Lou Whitaker 874 44 8 17 4 1 1 5 4 1 1 1 1 3 3T Willie Randolph 318 26 1 1 4 4 2 3 2 5 2 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 6 Pete Browning 316 20 1 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 5 7 Dave Stieb 271 21 2 4 1 3 3 1 3 3 1 6 8 Charley Jones 256 17 3 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 5 Cannonball Dick Redding 253 16 2 4 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 8 9 Roger Bresnahan 252 19 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 9 13 Bob Johnson 251 18 2 2 4 1 2 2 2 2 1 10 12 Hugh Duffy 224 16 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 11 Bucky Walters 220 15 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 12 n/e Kirby Puckett 205 16 1 4 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 13 14 Gavvy Cravath 204 16 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 14 10 Tony Perez 196 14 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 15 15 Alejandro Oms 177 14 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 16 16 George Van Haltren 153 11 2 2 1 3 2 1 17 17 Tommy Leach 152 11 3 3 2 3 18 22 John McGraw 150 9 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 19 26 Luis Tiant 142 13 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 20 30 Tommy Bridges 138 9 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 21 18 Graig Nettles 132 13 1 1 3 2 3 1 2 22 29 Dizzy Dean 128 8 3 1 1 1 1 1 23 21 Reggie Smith 125 11 1 4 1 1 3 1 24 32 Bus Clarkson 125 8 2 2 1 1 1 1 25T 23 Lou Brock 123 8 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 25T 27T Mickey Welch 123 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 27 20 Phil Rizzuto 120 10 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 28 33 Burleigh Grimes 118 10 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 29 36T Orlando Cepeda 115 10 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 30 38 Dave Concepción 106 8 1 1 3 1 1 1 31T 19 Ken Singleton 101 9 1 1 1 2 2 2 31T 24 Rusty Staub 101 9 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 33 27T Norm Cash 99 8 2 1 1 2 2 34 25 Larry Doyle 97 7 1 3 1 1 1 35 34 Dale Murphy 95 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 36 31 Vic Willis 91 8 1 1 2 3 1 37 35 Bobby Bonds 89 9 1 2 1 1 2 2 38 43 Ben Taylor 81 7 1 1 1 2 2 39 39 Bob Elliott 79 8 1 2 1 1 2 1 40 52 Pie Traynor 77 7 1 1 2 1 2 41 47 Dave Bancroft 76 6 1 1 1 2 1 42 36T Elston Howard 69 7 1 1 1 1 1 2 43 49 Wally Schang 69 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 44T 41 Tommy John 66 5 1 1 1 1 1 44T 48 Chuck Klein 66 5 1 1 1 2 46 42 Carl Mays 64 5 2 1 1 1 47T 51 Bill Monroe 59 5 1 1 1 1 1 47T 40 Vern Stephens 59 5 1 2 1 1 49 n/e Don Mattingly 53 5 1 1 3 50 50 Sal Bando 50 5 1 1 2 1 51 n/e Lance Parrish 45 4 1 1 2 52 45T Addie Joss 45 3 1 1 1 53 45T Ed Williamson 44 3 1 1 1 54 70T Frank Chance 43 4 1 1 1 1 55 57 Wilbur Cooper 43 3 1 1 1 56 64T George J. Burns 42 4 1 3 57 58 Lefty Gomez 42 3 2 1 58 54 Buddy Bell 40 4 2 1 1 59 44 Frank Tanana 38 3 1 1 1 60 75 Tony Oliva 38 2 1 1 61 56 Ernie Lombardi 37 3 1 1 1 62T 81 Thurman Munson 34 3 1 2 62T 59T Don Newcombe 34 3 1 1 1 64 53 Sam Rice 33 3 1 1 1 65T 73 Tony Mullane 32 3 1 1 1 65T 82T Urban Shocker 32 3 1 1 1 67 68T Johnny Pesky 30 3 1 1 1 68 64T Rick Reuschel 30 2 1 1 69 63 Rabbit Maranville 29 3 1 1 1 70 66 Jimmy Ryan 26 2 2 71T 55 Jim Rice 23 3 1 1 1 71T 80 Bobby Veach 23 3 2 1 73T n/e Jack Quinn 23 2 1 1 73T 68T Bruce Sutter 23 2 1 1 75 67 Jack Clark 22 2 1 1 76 62 Ed Cicotte 22 1 1 77 61 Frank Howard 19 2 1 1 78 74 Dave Parker 18 2 2 79 87T Al Rosen 17 2 1 1 80 77T Luis Aparicio 17 1 1 81 77T Carlos Morán 16 1 1 82 76 Ron Cey 15 2 1 1 83 77T Brian Downing 15 1 1 84T n/e Bill Mazeroski 14 1 1 84T 70T Dizzy Trout 14 1 1 86 59T Jim Kaat 12 1 1 87T 72 Hack Wilson 11 1 1 87T 85T Tony Lazzeri 11 1 1 87T 82T Sam Leever 11 1 1 90T 85T Fielder Jones 10 1 1 90T 82T Leroy Matlock 10 1 1 92T 87T Fred Dunlap 9 1 1 92T 87T Jack Morris 9 1 1 94T n/e Jim Fregosi 8 1 1 94T 87T George Kell 8 1 1 96T 91T Bill Madlock 7 1 1 96T n/e Levi Meyerle 7 1 1 96T 91T Mickey Vernon 7 1 1 99T n/e Dick Lundy 6 1 1 99T 93T Al Oliver 6 1 1 99T n/e Mike Tiernan 6 1 1 Dropped Out: Charlie Hough(93T), Dutch Leonard(95T), Gene Tenace(95T). Ballots Cast: 47 Thanks to OCF and Ron Wargo for double-checking the tally. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy
Posted: July 09, 2007 at 12:56 AM | 124 comment(s)
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Looking forward to finding out why it's crazy to have Pete Browning on our ballots for the next few weeks. ;-)
HOF-not-HOM through 2001
Meaning, all of the members of the HOF-not-HOM as of 2001, not 2007.
1 Aparicio, Luis
2. Bancroft, Dave
3 Bender, Chief
4 Bottomley, Jim
5 Bresnahan, Roger
6 Brock, Lou
7 Cepeda, Orlando
8 Chance, Frank
9 Chesbro, Jack
10 Combs, Earle
11 Cuyler, Kiki
12 Dandridge, Ray
13 Day, Leon
14 Dean, Dizzy
15 Duffy, Hugh
16 Evers, Johnny
17 Ferrell, Rick
18 Gomez, Lefty
19 Grimes, Burleigh
20 Hafey, Chick
21 Haines, Jesse
22 Hooper, Harry
23 Hoyt, Waite
24 Hunter, Catfish
25 Jackson, Travis
26 Johnson, Judy
27 Joss, Addie
28 Kell, George
29 Kelly, George
30 Klein, Chuck
31 Lazzeri, Tony
32 Lindstrom, Freddie
33 Lombardi, Ernie
34 Manush, Heinie
35 Maranville, Rabbit
36 Marquard, Rube
37 Mazeroski, Bill
38 McCarthy, Tommy
39 McGraw, John
40 Pennock, Herb
41 Perez, Tony
42 Puckett, Kirby
43 Rice, Sam
44 Rizzuto, Phil
45 Schalk, Ray
46 Schoendienst, Red
47 Smith, Hilton
48 Tinker, Joe
49 Traynor, Pie
50 Waner, Lloyd
51 Welch, Mickey
52 Willis, Vic
53 Wilson, Hack
54 Youngs, Ross
HOM-not-HOF
Meaning, all of the members of the HOM-not-HOF as of 2001, not 2007.
1 Allen, Dick
2 Barnes, Ross
3 Beckwith, John
4 Bennett, Charlie
5 Blyleven, Bert
6 Boyer, Ken
7 Brown, Ray
8 Brown, Willard
9 Carter, Gary
10 Caruthers, Bob
11 Childs, Cupid
12 Dahlen, Bill
13 Evans, Darrell
14 Evans, Dwight
15 Ferrell, Wes
16 Freehan, Bill
17 Glasscock, Jack
18 Gordon, Joe
19 Gore, George
20 Gossage, Rich
21 Grant, Frank
22 Grich, Bobby
23 Groh, Heinie
24 Hack, Stan
25 Hernandez, Keith
26 Hill, Pete
27 Hines, Paul
28 Jackson, Joe*
29 Johnson, Home Run
30 Keller, Charlie
31 Mackey. Biz
32 Magee, Sherry
33 McVey, Cal
34 Méndez, José
35 Minoso, Minnie
36 Moore, Dobie
37 Pearce, Dickey
38 Pierce, Billy
39 Pike, Lip
40 Randolph, Willie
41 Richardson, Hardy
42 Rose, Pete*
43 Santo, Ron
44 Santop, Louis
45 Sheckard, Jimmy
46 Simmons, Ted
47 Start, Joe
48 Stovey, Harry
49 Suttles, Mule
50 Sutton, Ezra
51 Torre, Joe
52 Trouppe, Quincy
53 Torriente, Cristobal
54 Whitaker, Lou
55 White, Deacon
56 Wilson, Jud
57 Wynn, Jimmy
* not eligible for the HOF
Right, Chris.
Or it was once the 1st TB and is now the 2nd tie-breaker? (behind #ballots)
The third tie-breaker is then most #1's?
Or am I all confused about this?
Condolences to Browning's great-great-great-great? grandchildren.
Looks like jimd was right.
I just vaguely remember that we might have flip-flopped (i) and (ii), some time after the ballot counter spreadsheet came into use. It was easy to implement (ii) and put it in the counter; (i) is hard to do.
OTOH, maybe that was just unofficial, good enough for ties that don't really matter, but a real tie (one that decides who gets elected) goes to the Constitution.
I like being right.
And I thought Mattingly would do better.
I agree.
As a Yankee fan, I've always respected Willie's calm and patient demeanor in the midst of the turmoil of the Bronx Zoo. I've never really ranked my favorite Yankees aside from Mattingly who was my favorite, but Willie is easily in the top 5 of my all time favorite Yankees in my lifetime.
Average consensus score: -8.2
Howie Menckel: +1
Mark Shirk: -1
TomH: -1
Chris Fluit: -1
Jim Sp: -2
John Murphy: -2
Al Peterson: -3
ronw: -4
Thane of Bagarth: -4
Devin McCullen: -4
Sean Gilman: -4
Esteban Rivera: -4
fra paolo: -4
...
OCF: -5
...
Rick A: -7 (median)
...
Chris Cobb: -7
...
Joe Dimino: -10
...
EricC: -12
Daryn: -12
Dan R: -12
Adam Schafer: -13
Eric Chalek: -13
rawagman: -14
Max Parkinson: -14
mulder & scully: -15
karlmagnus: -16
rico vanian: -18
Mark Donelson: -19
yest: -29 (outlier again)
A list of eligible HoFers
HoMers in bold
all HoFers with significant playing careers are included
1936
Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson
1937
Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Cy Young , Connie Mack, John McGraw, George Wright
1938
Pete Alexander
1939
George Sisler , Eddie Collins , Willie Keeler , Lou Gehrig, Cap Anson , Charlie Comiskey , Candy Cummings , Buck Ewing , Charles Radbourn , Al Spalding
1942
Rogers Hornsby
1945
Roger Bresnahan , Dan Brouthers , Fred Clarke , Jimmy Collins , Ed Delahanty , Hugh Duffy , Hughie Jennings , King Kelly , Jim O’Rourke , Wilbert Robinson
1946
Jesse Burkett , Frank Chance , Jack Chesbro , Johnny Evers , , Clark Griffith, , Tommy McCarthy , Joe McGinnity , Eddie Plank , Joe Tinker , Rube Waddell , Ed Walsh
1947
Carl Hubbell , Frankie Frisch , Mickey Cochrane , Lefty Grove
1948
Herb Pennock , Pie Traynor
1949
Charlie Gehringer , Mordecai Brown , Kid Nichols
1951
Mel Ott , Jimmie Foxx
1952
Harry Heilmann , Paul Waner
1953
Al Simmons , Dizzy Dean , Chief Bender , Bobby Wallace , Harry Wright
1954
Rabbit Maranville , Bill Dickey , Bill Terry
1955
Joe DiMaggio , Ted Lyons , Dazzy Vance , Gabby Hartnett , Frank Baker , Ray Schalk
1956
Hank Greenberg , Joe Cronin
1957
Sam Crawford
1959
Zack Wheat
1961
Max Carey , Billy Hamilton
1962
Bob Feller , Jackie Robinson , Bill McKechnie , Edd Roush
1963
John Clarkson , Elmer Flick , Sam Rice , Eppa Rixey
1964
Luke Appling , Red Faber , Burleigh Grimes , Miller Huggins , Tim Keefe , Heinie Manush , Monte Ward
1965
Pud Galvin
1966
Ted Williams , Casey Stengel
1967
Red Ruffing , Lloyd Waner
1968
Joe Medwick , Kiki Cuyler , Goose Goslin
1969
Stan Musial, Roy Campanella , Stan Coveleski , , Waite Hoyt,
1970
Lou Boudreau , Earle Combs , Jesse Haines,
1971
Dave Bancroft , Jake Beckley , Chick Hafey , Harry Hooper , Joe Kelley , Rube Marquard , Satchel Paige
1972
Sandy Koufax , Yogi Berra ,Early Wynn, Lefty Gomez , Ross Youngs , Josh Gibson , Buck Leonard
1973
Warren Spahn , George Kelly , Mickey Welch , Monte Irvin , Roberto Clemente
1974
Mickey Mantle , Whitey Ford , Jim Bottomley , Sam Thompson , Cool Papa Bell
1975
Ralph Kiner , Earl Averill , Bucky Harris , Billy Herman , Judy Johnson
1976
Robin Roberts, Bob Lemon , Roger Connor , Freddy Lindstrom , Oscar Charleston
1977
Ernie Banks ,Amos Rusie , Joe Sewell , Al Lopez , Martin Dihigo , Pop Lloyd
1978
Eddie Mathews, Addie Joss
1979
Willie Mays , Hack Wilson
1980
Al Kaline, Duke Snider, Chuck Klein
1981
Bob Gibson, Johnny Mize , Rube Foster
1982
Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Travis Jackson
1983
Brooks Robinson, Juan Marichal, George Kell
1984
Luis Aparicio, Harmon Killebrew, Don Drysdale, Rick Ferrell , Pee Wee Reese
1985
Hoyt Wilhelm, Lou Brock, Enos Slaughter , Arky Vaughan
1986
Willie McCovey, Bobby Doerr, Ernie Lombardi
1987
Billy Williams, Catfish Hunter, Ray Dandridge
1988
Willie Stargell
1989
Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, Red Schoendienst
1990
Jim Palmer , Joe Morgan
1991
Rod Carew, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins , Tony Lazzeri
1992
Tom Seaver, Rollie Fingers, Hal Newhouser
1993
Reggie Jackson
1994
Steve Carlton, Leo Durocher , Phil Rizzuto
1995
Mike Schmidt, Leon Day , Vic Willis , Richie Ashburn
1996
Jim Bunning, Bill Foster , Ned Hanlon
1997
Phil Niekro, Nellie Fox, Willie Wells
1998
Don Sutton, George Davis , Larry Doby , Joe Rogan
1999
Nolan Ryan, George Brett, Robin Yount, Orlando Cepeda, Joe Williams
2000
Carlton Fisk, Tony Perez, Bid McPhee , Turkey Stearnes
2001
Dave Winfield, Kirby Puckett, Bill Mazeroski , Hilton Smith
2003
Gary Carter
2006
Bruce Sutter, Ray Brown, Willard Brown, Andy Cooper, Biz Mackey, Mule Suttles, Cristobal Torriente, Jud Wilson, Frank Grant, Pete Hill, Jose Mendez Louis Santop, Ben Taylor, Sol White
TOP 50, ALL-TIME
Beckley.... 25856
VAN HALTREN 25410.5
DUFFY...... 25293.5
BROWNING... 23207.5
Childs..... 18484
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
WELCH...... 17341
Jennings... 16976
REDDING.... 15796
CJONES..... 15288
BRESNAHAN.. 14017
Sisler..... 13892
TLEACH..... 13548
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
Mendez..... 12555
RYAN....... 12394.5
Thompson... 12349
Roush...... 12005
Bennett.... 11503
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
Beckwith.... 9896
CRAVATH......9872
HStovey......9576
WALTERS......9324
Mackey.......8930
DOYLE........8880
Start........8378.5
GRIMES.......8293
McGinnity....8232
DPearce......8073
McVey........7985.5
FGrant.......7969.5
Kiner........7746
Suttles......7690
NFox.........7587
Trouppe......7494
BJOHNSON.....7269
WFerrell.....7259
BMONROE......7144
OMS..........7086
CBell........6968
Galvin.......6585
MCGRAW.......6438
Keller.......6424
Sheckard.....6377
Schang.......6173 (knocks out Minoso)
Others in active top 50
Williamson 6014, Willis 4821, Dean 4423, Joss 4292, Elliott 4189, BTaylor 3665, Bridges 3546, FChance 3404, McCormick 3148x, CMays 3020, SRice 3011, Traynor 2996, Cicotte 2890, NCash 2709, Cepeda 2692, Tiernan 2686x, Rizzuto 2565, FJones 2533, TPerez 2273, Veach 2222, GJBurns 2085, Brock 2077, Klein 2077, Mullane 2011, Stephens 1949, Dunlap 1892, EHoward 1843, Poles 1842x, Lombardi 1820, Hooper 1792x, MGriffin 1726.5x, Tiant 1686
HOM not HOF (All-Time) - 46
Allen, Dick
Barnes, Ross
Beckwith, John
Bennett, Charlie
Blyleven, Bert
Boyer, Ken
Caruthers, Bob
Childs, Cupid
Dahlen, Bill
Evans, Darrell
Evans, Dwight
Ferrell, Wes
Freehan, Bill
Glasscock, Jack
Gordon, Joe
Gore, George
Gossage, Rich
Grich, Bobby
Groh, Heinie
Hack, Stan
Hernandez, Keith
Hines, Paul
Jackson, Joe
Johnson, Grant
Keller, Charlie
Magee, Sherry
McVey, Cal
Minoso, Minnie
Moore, Dobie
Pearce, Dickey
Pierce, Billy
Pike, Lip
Randolph, Willie
Richardson, Hardy
Rose, Pete
Santo, Ron
Sheckard, Jimmy
Simmons, Ted
Start, Joe
Stovey, Harry
Sutton, Ezra
Torre, Joe
Trouppe, Quincy
White, Deacon
Whitaker, Lou
Wynn, Jimmy
HOF not HOM (including those not yet eligible for the HOM) - 66 (58 eligible through 2001)
Aparicio, Luis
Bancroft, Dave
Bender, Chief
Boggs, Wade - eligible 2005
Bottomley, Jim
Bresnahan, Roger
Brock, Lou
Cepeda, Orlando
Chance, Frank
Chesbro, Jack
Combs, Earle
Cooper, Andy
Cuyler, Kiki
Dandridge, Ray
Day, Leon
Dean, Dizzy
Duffy, Hugh
Eckersley, Dennis - eligible 2004
Evers, Johnny
Ferrell, Rick
Gomez, Lefty
Grimes, Burleigh
Gwynn, Tony - eligible 2007
Hafey, Chick
Haines, Jesse
Hooper, Harry
Hoyt, Waite
Hunter, Catfish
Jackson, Travis
Johnson, Judy
Joss, Addie
Kell, George
Kelly, George
Klein, Chuck
Lazzeri, Tony
Lindstrom, Freddy
Lombardi, Ernie
Manush, Heinie
Maranville, Rabbit
Marquard, Rube
Mazeroski, Bill
McCarthy, Tommy
McGraw, John
Molitor, Paul - eligible 2004
Murray, Eddie - eligible 2003
Pennock, Herb
Perez, Tony
Puckett, Kirby
Rice, Sam
Ripken, Cal - eligible 2007
Rizzuto, Phil
Sandberg, Ryne - eligible 2003
Schalk, Ray
Schoendienst, Red
Smith, Hilton
Smith, Ozzie - eligible 2002
Sutter, Bruce
Taylor, Ben
Tinker, Joe
Traynor, Pie
Waner, Lloyd
Welch, Mickey
White, Sol
Willis, Vic
Wilson, Hack
Youngs, Ross
Then, the HOF/not HOM list. The 8 players not yet eligible for the HOM will all be easily inducted- Boggs, Eckersley, Gwynn, Molitor, Murray, Ripken, Sandberg and Smith. 2 others are currently in the top ten list of returnees, while another was recently on the list and is now just outside of it: Duffy, Puckett and Perez. So, at least 8 and possibly 11 will come of their list as they're added to ours.
Joe DiMaggio
John Beckwith
Billy Herman
Lou Boudreau
Stan Hack
Joe Medwick
Red Ruffing
Hughie Jennings
Wes Ferrell
Biz Mackey
Earl Averill
Eppa Rixey
George Sisler
Clark Griffith
Jake Beckley
1--George Van Haltren--13
Cool Papa Bell
2--Hugh Duffy--7
3--Mickey Welch--22t
Cupid Childs
Bobby Doerr
Joe Sewell
4--Pete Browning--1
5--Bucky Walters--8
6--Cannonball Dick Redding--4
Dobie Moore
7--Alejandro Oms--12
José Méndez
8--Charley Jones--3
9--Tommy Leach--14
10-Gavy Cravath--10
11-Burleigh Grimes--25
Joe Gordon
Rube Waddell
12-Roger Bresnahan--5
13-Wally Schang--40
Edd Roush
14-Larry Doyle--31
15-Dizzy Dean--19
16-John McGraw--15
17-Bob Johnson--6
18-Ernie Lombardi--58
19-Chuck Klein--41t
20t-Tommy Bridges--17
20t-Bill Monroe--44t
Charlie Keller
The most accurate placement of a candidate occurs about five to twenty years after he becomes eligible.
A new candidate is subject to “Shiny New Toy” syndrome and other distortions. By his fifth year on the ballot we have a better handle on his placement. By then, good studies have been done, but it’s too early for him to have acquired “Favorite Pet” status.
On the other end, after twenty years or so, the memory of those good early studies has faded. Certainly for pre-1920 candidates, many voters have no knowledge of those studies; indeed, in many cases they’re no longer accessible due to the damage of the site changeover. In addition, at this late date many voters place a Browning or a Duffy based too much on the historic images of them, images that are based largely on counting stats and popular accounts. Another effect is the crowding caused by newer candidates, that washes out the image of more seasoned candidates.
I’ll stop there. Does anyone else see these phenomena at work in our collective analysis?
I would only change one word or two:
The most accurate placement of a backlog/borderline candidate occurs about five to twenty years after he becomes eligible.
Some frontloggers clear out quickly because much of the electorate "gets" them quickly, and of course the high-ranking candidates clear out very, very quickly. Which leaves the borderline stragglers whom we are herein discussing.
OK, that sounds good. Then you agree that our current placements of these guys is not as accurate as it was a few decades ago.
1. Dave Winfield
2. Charley Jones
3. Vic Willis
4. Dave Stieb
5. Kirby Puckett
6. Lou Whitaker
7. Roger Bresnahan
8. Bus Clarkson
9. Dale Murphy
10. Tommy Leach
11. Gavvy Cravath
12. Ken Singleton
13. Larry Doyle
14. Bucky Walters
15. Tony Perez
I’m not under any delsusions that anyone has been anxiously wondering how I would have voted, and my ballot would not have affected the outcome, since neither Randolph nor Browning were on it (Randolph was #16). Still, if I had voted, Walters would have replaced Duffy in the top ten, and Kirby would be in an even closer battle with Hugh for a top ten spot in the next election. I suppose that’s worth mentioning.
No, I believe in perpetual eligibility.
Both of them are on my ballot for reasons other than the ones described above.
Same here.
John asked whether Browning might might make it this year. Well he's got one slot to work with, since it seems a foregone conclusion that the two SS will go 1-2. Dawson certainly has some chance of winning a slot too. And stranger things have happened in elections than to see a lead like Browning's diminish over Stieb (Browning being about 45-50 points ahead). If Browning came on to no one else's ballot, Stieb found some new support, and more voters cast ballots (favre for instance), who knows what happens. Or Browning could take the path that several recent old backlog top runners-up have taken in getting so close, then falling away again for a while. But if Browning fails in 2002, 2003 begins to look ominous too. Murray and Sandberg seem likely to be inducted, and again, it's a one-slot race where we continue to rage over Dawson and the potentially controversial Lee Smith comes up for bids (where is that pesky reliever in/out line, anyway?).
Anyway, Browning has run a very long gauntlet to get to the precipice of glory---it will be interesting to see if the gravity of the backlog reels him back in again.
But over time, a few of them do plop onto the deck.
Too bad Jesse Burkett was too good!
:)
But luckily Johnny Evers is still in the barrell.
Then you would also have to support the idea that those we "elect" would still be voted on in each election. IOW, if we can stop players' eligibility by supporting them greatly, why can't the opposite also be done and, likewise, eliminate players the group has non-supported greatly? Both acts are submitting to the groups' collective judgment.
Anyway, the intent of post #22 had nothing to do with perpetual eligibility. It is a followup to the list in #21. I'm submitting the following conundrum to the group: Contrary to popular belief, I believe it is likely that the consensus ranking of long-time candidates with their peers becomes less accurate over time.
I think the answer to this one could be "Dickey Pearce." The notion that information changes over time, as does understanding, suggests that eliminating a player from consideration disallows the rare instance where the electorate requires time or new information/study to make a better decision.
On the other hand, the truth is that we've dismissed approximately 15,000 players already by simply never supporting them; there needn't be any kind of mechanism for ineligibility due to this reason alone.
Contrary to popular belief, I believe it is likely that the consensus ranking of long-time candidates with their peers becomes less accurate over time.
I'm not sure, I agree, Dan. Let's look at the 50-100 year backlog guys of recent vintage:
-Jake Beckley oozed borderlinerness, and he was appropriate elected very late in the project: the electorate got him right in as much as he was forced to run a longer gauntlet than superior players.
-Pete Browning has tons of issues, and he's been made to run a longer gauntlet, again, I see that as appropriate.
-Charley Jones, ditto.
-Edd Roush waited around about 50 years, and his case was also fairly borderline, but I thought above the line; I see nothing problematic about the consensus opinion here.
-George Van Duffy has waited an appropriately long time since those three are nearly indistinguishable, the big stats have disagreement on them, different studies show different opinions, and they each have a plusses and minuses. Again, I don't see how the consensus has them wrong relatively or absolutely.
-Mickey Welch isn't going in. As late as the 1930s-1940s raged about whether he should. Now we can stick a fork in him. I think the consensus has him right as well.
-Bob Johnson is another guy with 50 years where the consensus has him right: he's a borderline candidate, and so hasn't been elected.
-Dizzy Dean's been around for 55-60 years with his extreme peak case, and he's pulling in a 22 this year. Seems about right to me.
But what about mistake guys? Sam Thompson had about 20 years on the ballot and became the HOM's big sore thumb. Others (not me) say that Bill Terry was a mistake, he was a first ballot guy. I think Fingers is a mistake, and he was on the ballot about ten to twelve years. Ken Boyer is another I really disagree with, he was elected fairly quickly, within 20 years also. Dewey Evans may or may not be a mistake, but he was definitely borderline, and he was elected in his first year.
In general, I think you're right that for backlog guys, 25 years is somewhere around where the electorate gets their "true" HOM level about right. But I think the consensus stays pretty accurate after that. Anything can and has happened before the 25 year mark, but there's little to argue with when a 100-year-old borderliner gets in. It's just the nature of longtime borderline candidacies.
I’ll hit this one more time, despite its mootness, because I see it as a serious flaw in our system.
I think the answer to this one could be "Dickey Pearce."
No, not nearly. No one has ever suggested we operate anything like the BBWAA and make guys “one and done”. My thinking has always been towards eliminating candidates who have complete, long-term rejection.
One idea I like is “40-40”. If a player finishes out of the top 40 in 40 elections, then he’s done. Simple, easy to track, absolutely zero chance of eliminating a viable candidate. Again, “complete, long-term rejection”.
By allowing these rejected candidates to continue we are allowing them to divert us from the primary task of coming to consensus on who the top candidates are.
One example. We have only a 15-man ballot. This is too small to reflect the electorate’s true feelings on very divisive candidates. Suppose we had a 100-man ballot. Based on 2001 voting, I’m guessing Pete Browning has support something like this:
7 Elect-me votes
6 Other top-ballot (4-8) votes
7 Other top 15 votes
5 Votes 16-25
5 Votes 26-40
5 Votes 41-55
5 Votes 56-70
4 Votes 71-85
3 Votes 86-100
Another candidate has support something like this:
2 Elect-me votes
3 Other top-ballot (4-8) votes
6 Other top 15 votes
11 Votes 16-25
11 Votes 26-40
7 Votes 41-55
4 Votes 56-70
3 Votes 71-85
0 Votes 86-100
This actually may not bear too close a resemblance to reality, but it was a fun exercise. The point is I think our system exaggerates the gap between these two players. If we eliminated completely rejected players from the ballot, the voting results would be able to better reflect the electorate’s opinion on their relative merits. The just-off-ballot votes for the second player add a lot more than for the first player. In a close election, this system can easily elect the wrong guy, a player generally less regarded by the electorate.
Retaining completely rejected players has other negative effects:
1. Wasted effort. Discussion and analysis that should go towards ranking the viable candidates is spent on Favorite Pets.
2. Over tolerance of idiosyncratic voters. It encourages contrarians and voters whose “systems” bear little relationship to actual value.
3. It admits to distrust of the electorate. We have no official mechanism to say that Happy Jack Chesbro has been deemed Not A HoMer by our sagacious assemblage. We’re never entirely sure that anybody isn’t a possible HoMer.
4. It makes us look silly. The nether regions of our voting tally have the same pointless names year after year.
Wait. Come to think of it, we could enact candidate limitations at any time. Might be just the shot in the arm this project needs. I'll think about a smoothe way to institute it.
Even if it eliminated 45 votes (which it likely won't), that is only an average of one vote per voter.
Giving it a quick look I came up with 29 players with 64 votes and 730 points. Together with the other benefits, it's clearly a positive direction to go.
Dave Bancroft
George Burns
Frank Chance
Ed Cicotte
Wilbur Cooper
Fred Dunlap
Fielder Jones
Addie Joss
Lefty Gomez
Chuck Klein
Tony Lazzeri
Sam Leever
Ernie Lombardi
Dick Lundy
Rabbit Maranville
Leroy Matlock
Carl Mays
Levi Meyerle
Bill Monroe
Carlos Moran
Tony Mullane
Jack Quinn
Johnny Pesky
Sam Rice
Al Rosen (eliminated after the 2001 election)
Jimmy Ryan
Wally Schang
Urban Shocker
Vern Stephens (eliminated after the 2000 election)
Mike Tiernan
Dizzy Trout
Bobby Veach
Ed Williamson
Hack Wilson
Scheduled to be eliminated after the 2002 election:
George Kell
Artie Wilson
A slightly less harsh version of 50/50 would keep:
Dave Bancroft
Chuck Klein
Ernie Lombardi (2002 would be be his last election unless he were to crack the top 50)
Johnny Pesky
Carl Mays
Bill Monroe
Al Rosen
Wally Schang
Vern Stephens
I agree. At this point, the difference between our 15th and 16th men is probably infinitesimal, but one gets 6 points and the other gets zero. What happened with the 20-man ballot experiment?
Don't you remember, DL? It was "proven" that a larger ballot would not improve the system.
Let's change this thought to one of allowing ALL players perpetual eligibility (changes underlined):
"One of the things I like about the project is perpetual elegibility. According to this past election, three players in the HoM would be eliminated, replaced by guys who I feel more deserving. I would really like it if this bumped one of those players to election."
If we had true perpetual eligibility we would "feel" happier because HoMers we felt undeserving could be bumped out. Obviously, not the way we want to go, right? IMO, allowing perpetual eligibility to players at the top of the consensus would be as silly as allowing perpetual eligibility to players at the bottom of the consensus. Yet, we do. So, the current system is not inconsistent in its treatment of candidates.
Reduces the fractured nature of the backlog. We are continually setting new records for most players to receive votes in one election, player elected with the lowest number of votes, player elected with the lowest percentage of points, and so on. Eventual elimination would force the voters to discard certain candidates and concentrate on the more recent and more viable candidates.
Question: Is that really such a positive? Or in other words- is the increasing number of players who get votes, and the lower point totals for backlog inductees such a significant problem that we need to change the rules in order to address it?
Negatives to eventual elimination:
Creates a definitive "time-line" effect. By setting a cut-off- any cut-off- we are saying that recent borderline candidates are preferable to older borderline candidates. We are saying, in effect, that Jim Fregosi is a worthwhile candidate but Johnny Pesky is not.
Reduces the possibility of new research. For example, 2001 was Bus Clarkson's 40th election. Just a couple of months ago, our Negro League researchers came up with new information for Clarkson that resulted in a rather large increase. Because of that increase, Clarkson is now in the top 40 and will not be eliminated. But what if that research had been done in August instead of April? It would have been too late for Clarkson. In fact, unless similar research is done in the next two weeks for Artie Wilson, he would be eliminated. The players who stand to gain the most from extra research- Negro League players, Cuban/Caribbean players such as Carlos Moran, 19th Century players who may have played outside of the official major leagues- are the ones who are also most likely to be eliminated.
Addressing the negatives of perpetual candidacy:
Retaining completely rejected players has other negative effects:
1. <u>Wasted effort.</u> Discussion and analysis that should go towards ranking the viable candidates is spent on Favorite Pets.
How much discussion and analysis has actually gone into Favorite Pets? The big arguments have always been about guys at the top of the backlog- those in the top 10 or 25. This proposal wouldn't have eliminated the tedious discussions about Jake Beckley (and I say that as a Beckley supporter). They wouldn't eliminate the repeated discussions of Browning. Or of the big three 1890s outfielders as at least two of them would still be eligible. The guys who would be eliminated are not the guys who are taking up a lot of discussion space. When was the last time that the Chuck Klein or Hack Wilson threads saw a burst of activity? When was the last time we had a really heated discussion about Tony Mullane or Jack Quinn? We honestly aren't wasting that much time talking about these guys. The only time they come up in a discussion is when a newly eligible player is similar to one of the older ones. Concepcion's recent candidacy has got us talking about Bancroft, Maranville and Rizzuto again. But would we have done so without Concepcion? And isn't that a good thing- that a newer player is causing us to reevaluate some older players? I don't see that discussion as having been wasteful or useless in any way. If Concepcion's candidacy and the discussion it's engendered about Bancroft and Rizzuto have helped us understand those players better- and possibly even elect one of them- then I think that's a good thing.
2.<u> Over tolerance of idiosyncratic voters.</u> It encourages contrarians and voters whose “systems” bear little relationship to actual value.
Would eventual elimination keep our idiosyncratic voters in line? Would karlmagnus and yest suddenly submit ballots that don't continually bring down the consensus scale? I doubt it. karlmagnus and yest may have plenty of older candidates that they continue to vote for but they've expressed the same idiosyncratic tendencies for more recent candidates like Don Mattingly and Bill Madlock. After the next election, yest wouldn't be allowed to vote for George Kell anymore. But who says he'd vote for somebody high in the backlog instead? Maybe we'd be arguing about Bill Buckner or Kent Hrbek instead. I just don't see how this proposal would actually achieve this result.
3.<u> It admits to distrust of the electorate.</u> We have no official mechanism to say that Happy Jack Chesbro has been deemed Not A HoMer by our sagacious assemblage. We’re never entirely sure that anybody isn’t a possible HoMer.
I don't see why this is so important. Why do we have to have a definitive vote in which we say Jack Chesbro is officially deemed not worthy of the Hall of Merit? Isn't it enough that he receives no votes year after year?
Furthermore, there are valid reasons to distrust the electorate. Dobie Moore had at least one election in which he received 0 votes. Some time later, voters became convinced of his worthiness. Whether it was because of the excellence of his peak or credit for his time spent barnstorming or some other reason, we already have one candidate completely dismissed by the electorate who was later inducted into the Hall of Merit. Another elected candidate who could have been in danger of elimination was Edd Roush who spent quite a bit of time low in the backlog before making a charge.
Plus, the top 40 after 40 or top 50 or 50 rule could have been disastrous a number of elections ago. We've often remarked that the electorate may have been a bit too exuberant about candidates from the 1930s. Many of the 1930s candidates were becoming eligible just as the older candidates were hitting their 40th or 50th year of eligibility. That exuberance might have been twice as regrettable if a large number of candidates were removed from consideration at that time. Roger Bresnahan and Charley Jones are top ten candidates now. They would have been on the verge of elimination back then.
4.<u> It makes us look silly.</u> The nether regions of our voting tally have the same pointless names year after year.
That's an emotional argument, not a logical one. I'm not sure everyone would agree that having the same names at the bottom of the tally makes us look silly. And I'm not sure that having Jim Fregosi and Al Oliver at the bottom of the tally somehow makes us look better than having Fred Dunlap and Fielder Jones.
40 consecutive elections?
I like this idea. I also like the idea of a 20-man ballot. One of the issues with backlog candidates is that they appear on less than half the ballots so not everyone is weighing in. The electorate didn't want to change rules in midstream, though.
I noticed that I only have one player currently on my ballot from that list and it's somebody for whom I voted for the first time in 2001. Even though I'm arguing against it, it wouldn't change my ballot much at all.
That should say:
the current system is not consistent in its treatment of candidates.
after twenty years or so, the memory of those good early studies has faded. Certainly for pre-1920 candidates, many voters have no knowledge of those studies; indeed, in many cases they’re no longer accessible due to the damage of the site changeover. In addition, at this late date many voters place a Browning or a Duffy based too much on the historic images of them, images that are based largely on counting stats and popular accounts.
But within that 1957 backlog, Browning has climbed from 4 to 1 and Duffy has slipped from 6 to 2. (See below where I have provided within-group rankings in place of the DanG table above.) That's a wash. Welch has the same counting stats and fame going for him. He's the anomaly among 300-game winners whom the group otherwise elected quickly, but he has slipped from 3 to 16. Otherwise Bresnahan, McGraw, and Dean have the fame without the counting stats.
Stieb--2, Puckett--9, Perez--11, Tiant--16, Nettles--18, R. Smith--20.
1--George Van Haltren--10
2--Hugh Duffy--6
3--Mickey Welch--16t
4--Pete Browning--1
5--Bucky Walters--7
6--Cannonball Dick Redding--3
7--Alejandro Oms--9
8--Charley Jones--2
9--Tommy Leach--11
10-Gavy Cravath--8
11-Burleigh Grimes--19
12-Roger Bresnahan--4
13-Wally Schang--34
14-Larry Doyle--25
15-Dizzy Dean--14
16-John McGraw--12
17-Bob Johnson--5
18-Ernie Lombardi--52
19-Chuck Klein--35t
20t-Tommy Bridges--13
20t-Bill Monroe--38t
Welch with 300 wins is alone in the 1957 backlog with 3000 hits, games, or strikeouts; or 300 wins or homeruns. At that level, no one has counting stats.
There are five career candidates in this subgroup:
1--George Van Haltren--10
3--Mickey Welch--16t
7--Alejandro Oms--9
9--Tommy Leach--11
11-Burleigh Grimes--19
They do have something in common but that isn't the theory at hand. Anyway, the oh-so-slow election of Beckley is a counterexample.
It happens that George Van Haltren led the backlog in the famous election of 1932, the turning point of the longest dry spell where 1957 is the turning point of the longest time of plenty. Rube Waddell was far behind and more than 20 years retired, as Dobie Moore was far behind and more than 20 years in 1957. It's possible that a majority of voters has always preferred Van Haltren to Waddell and to Moore, for the point system does not measure majorities. If so, it is likely also true that a majority preferred Van Haltren to Pike and Jennings (fellow ballot veterans in 1932) or Childs and Sisler (veterans in 1957). Maybe that is "bad" but the problem isn't that the group has a bead on almost everyone 10-20 years after retirement, then gradually loses touch with that analysis.
The shiny new toy is also weak as a general theory. Look at the electoral careers of Joe Gordon and Bobby Doerr, two famous players of hallowed times, teammates of Joe and Ted, covered sabrmetrically more than once by Bill James. Yet they didn't get much support when they arrived here and they faced long-distance (not long-time) climbs to the top.
This was the last message when I downloaded the thread and the last I will read now.
>>
Wait. Come to think of it, we could enact candidate limitations at any time. Might be just the shot in the arm this project needs. I'll think about a smoothe way to institute it.
<<
That's a hard sell, DanG. It's way tepid to be "the shot in the arm this project needs"!
Especially when so many seem immune to the slightest attempt at innoculation!
Picking up a few quotes form #48:
Best line in the whole post. Thank you for saying it, Chris. Exactly why we need rules like 40-40 to guide them.
No, I have a very logical desire to avoid the HoM looking ridiculous.
Of course not; that's not the intent. Only draconian measures could achieve that.
Merely their being listed on a ballot year after year is too much.
We're not saying these at all. We're saying that 40 years is sufficient time for a player to build a case. Voters would be entirely free and encouraged to make cross-era comparisons. If an eliminated candidate was revived from the comparison, then a campaign for reinstatement is appropriate. So the possibility that 40 years is not enough time to guage a candidate is left open.
For every place below 40th in the vote tally, a player gets one Elimination Point (EP), up to a maximum of 30 per election. That is, players finishing lower than 70th would earn 30 EP. A player with zero votes gets 30 EP, also.
When a player reaches a specified level, say 600 EP, he is dropped from the ballot. (The precise level could be determined by consensus.)
If you wanted, you could also subtract EP if a player finishes higher than #40.
This is also along with the usual possibility for reinstatement, of course.
People are misunderstanding the 40/40 rule. To be eliminated, you have to be out of the top 40 for 40 consecutive years -- so someone who finishes in 42nd in their 40th year would only be knocked out if they had never finished in the top 40.
Second, the 40/40 rule would knock out fewer votes than people are quesstimating. If the 40/40 rule were in place, some of the guys who people are saying would be knocked out by it would actually survive because they would get more votes due to the elimination of other 40/40 casualties. The list in post 41 becomes a maximum benefit/toll of the 40/40 rule, not the actual benefit/toll.
Should such a "rule" be implemented, I would be forced to consider my continued participation in this project. As Juan V pointed out - perpetual eligibility is one of the most attractive elements of this project in my view.
Actually, the "consecutive" years provision was added by David Foss. It was not my original intent. It could be done that way, but it would greatly minimize the effect of the rule.
Yes, to some degree. Eliminating completely rejected players will lead to a general upward flow of votes. It's true whether you say 40 consecutive or 40 total years. Voters' attention will naturally go towards players on the cusp of elimination, surely a good thing.
In any case, I much prefer the EP system proposed in #63.
That's just my personal preference. The System has always had my interest more than player analysis. Since I created a lot of it I have feelings for it.
We discussed this some decades ago. This is not eliminating perpetual eligibility - reinstatment would always be possible. It's saying that, Yes, the electorate judges players correctly and some have been deemed by us as unworthy of further consideration, absent new information or analysis. It's saying that allowing continuing support for long-stagnant candidacies is not benefiting anyone, it's just pap for voters stuck to their Teddy Bears. (THe BBWAA has the same problem. I say if they ain't advancing, focus on someone else.) It's saying that a 15 man ballot can mistate the electorate's support between a divisive candidate and a consensus candidate. It's saying that if we remain opposed to expanding the ballot, a minor change, then we need to find another way to free up ballot spots.
I'm saying that this would reenergize the process. I personally would love to quit voting for Ryan and Schang, but that would be unconstitutional. I'm stuck voting for them unless I institute a rigged system contrary to my beliefs.
OK. I tried.
Again. I've never intended to eliminate perpetual eligibility. It's the constant eligibility of completely rejected candidates that I would seek to rectify. Set them aside until someone comes up with a reason to reconsider them.
Absolutely nothing, Juan.
Thanks for the discussion, though. I've always liked the fact that the HOM has always been self-analytical and aware that it isn't perfect. Many modern aspects of the HOM voting behavior were not foreseeable in the original "founders debates" about rules, eligibility, counting, etc. Its only natural that as the project catches up to real time that there be a lot of 'post-mortem-style' analysis -- and I'm going to enjoy those discussions.
I do believe its way too late to make significant electoral changes, though.
>>What was/is so wrong with expanding ballots?
>Absolutely nothing, Juan.
I liked the larger ballots better but going from 15-20 didn't make a big enough difference in the trial years and the consensus opted for status quo. Inertia is a strong force to recon with for a project of this nature. A big enough change is the process would prompt people to call for a complete do-over.
And wouldnt' changing the system midstream help some candidates and hurt others?
Despite all that I agree you don't touch anything with 6 elections remaining and 100+ in the books. We already have a pretty large ballot.
Tiernan got a vote this election. He has 2692 points
I believe that Dan is proposing maintaining a counter here for each candidate. Finish out of the top-40 in an election and it gets incremented by one. When the counter hits 40, boom.
I do believe its way too late to make significant electoral changes, though.
Amen. Although 2009 is another story. (A year to talk things through too.)
I personally would love to quit voting for ...
I do agree with Dan that a "lost-cause" mechanism is needed.
OTOH, I disagree considerably about the details.
My proposal (which may be familiar to some here):
A "lost-cause" list is created (criteria to be determined).
Participation is voluntary. People can still vote for their lost causes if they prefer and those votes will be counted.
To participate, a voter indicates on their ballot that so-and-so is a "lost-cause", and that vote for that player is not counted in the general election.
The "lost-cause" committee tallies the support for "lost-causes" in each election, and if it satisfies some criterion (to be determined), the candidate is removed from the "lost-cause" list. Voter support (or lack of same) automatically determines who is on that list.
I don't like minority elections, and I wish we'd gone to either an expanded ballot or a runoff. But I doubt it would make much difference in the final results.
In terms of fixing the problem, in theory voters could abandon "favourite sons" whom they believed stood no chance of election. The problem, though, was illustrated when I first took an active role in the project in the 1980s. My newbie ballot was more or less required to have a spread of candidates from across baseball history in order to establish my bona fides. While I didn't have a problem, at least one fellow in I remember was given a hard time for not including players from the distant past. This has the effect of perpetuating candidacies that effectively have been dismissed by a majority of the electorate. Perhaps a greater degree of tolerance for ballots not including a broad cross-section of baseball history is what is really required.
Personally, I don't think it's too late to tinker with the voting system. But that's really the first question to decide before we go any further with specific proposals.
Ah, but it is. As Tevye famously said, “Without our traditions, our lives would be as shaky as a fiddler on the roof!”
Please remain in the box.
Nice summary, Dan.
The simple solution is a special runoff election if we can't get three players on half the submitted ballots. We wouldn't even have to submit new ballots, since I could figure it out on my worksheet by reviewing everybody's ballots. That way, we can say that we had majority votes for each post-change inductee, so we wont look silly compared to the institution in Cooperstown that rejects players such as Whitaker, Santo, Blyleven, Simmons, Torre, etc (yes, I'm being sarcastic), while still allowing every voter to still pick the top-fifteen candidates they feel belong on their ballots.
Wouldn't taking the ballots and not revoting as a runoff just produce the same result we have? It still would only express about 33% of the electorate's view on the candidate.
Forgive my dimness, but I'm not understanding. Can you please give a concrete example of this system and clarify the benefits of this proposal?
If you're really complaining about the fractured ballot, you should take a moment to think about the relative size of the HOM.
(As a side note, you guys are going to have fun with the elect 4 in 2011. That might be something worth discussing now.)
After reading only #85-87.
Wouldn't taking the ballots and not revoting as a runoff just produce the same result we have? It still would only express about 33% of the electorate's view on the candidate.
The winning candidate(s) would usually but not always be the same. You can easily find an example on the back of an envelope. (Come to my place and look at some of my envelopes.) *Even if number one and number two are unanimous* the virtual runoff may produce a different number three.
For what it's worth, DanG, I too understood this to mean 40 consecutive elections. Someone who has ranked below #40 for the last 40 years would be eliminated.
I pride myself on being ahead of the curve, in this case about five months. As "Weird Al" Yankovic famously said, “Dare to be stupid!"
I can see where someone might assume that. Of course, if I meant to say "consecutive" I would have written that.
Oh, and speaking of silly, another way to look silly is if we ever elect one of the players in #41.
Dan, I think you could be hyperbolizing here. There's good reasons why some of these guys could yet be electable. Actually there's at least three good reasons why in order of likelihood or importance:
1) We get more information about NgLers.
2) Increased PBP data going backwards in time bolsters our understandings of defense, changing our perceptions of their defense.
3) Increased PBP data going badkwards in time bolsters our understandings of baserunning, bunting, ROE, and the relative value of other offensive events in different periods, changing our perceptions of their offensive contribution.
The players in the list who fit in these categories are
1) NgL info guys
Dick Lundy
Leroy Matlock
Artie Wilson
2) PBP defense guys
Dave Bancroft
Rabbit Maranville
Bill Monroe
Carlos Moran
Vern Stephens
3) PBP offense guys
George Burns
Frank Chance
Fred Dunlap (also potentially category 2)
Fielder Jones
Jimmy Ryan
Wally Schang (potentially also category 2)
Mike Tiernan
Bobby Veach
Ed Williamson (also category 2, probably)
Levi Meyerle (I don't believe he's a real candidate with any amount of info, his career is too short, but for consistency...)
That leaves this bunch, and, what do you know, I support I one of them!
Wilbur Cooper
Ed Cicotte
Addie Joss
Lefty Gomez
Chuck Klein
Tony Lazzeri
Sam Leever
Ernie Lombardi
Carl Mays
Tony Mullane
Jack Quinn
Johnny Pesky
Sam Rice
Al Rosen (eliminated after the 2001 election)
Urban Shocker
Dizzy Trout
Hack Wilson
George Kell
So there's 18 guys whose cases could be affected by more information. So electing one of them now may or may not be silly, but to say that ever electing one of them would be silly seems like stretch to me.
There are plenty of ways to look silly.
Maybe I should have left it at this. Point is, lots of people include some knowledgeable students of baseball will say this project is silly. Don't be concerned about seeming silly in some particular way.
Kevin or Eric reported some hostility to sabrmetric analysis of Negro Leagues players. Some of the people who have toiled for hours to compile the data used here --and used in a way whose effect turns out to be honoring more "Negro Leaguers" than anyone else honors-- will think spending time on MLE is silly.
Maybe Bill James will write or revise a big fat book with some cracks about unemployed guys who have a website where they have put Dickey Pearce, Dobie Moore, and Charlie Keller in the 250 greatest players.
To make this work at the level of a majority vote, ballots would have to be supplemented with an ordered ranking of all the top-N candidates that did not make the voter's 15-deep main ballot. If for example you didn't vote for Jones, Browning, Redding, and Bresnahan, you would have to order them on your ballot so the needed runoff data was present. This would also require a pre-election screening of new candidates (prehaps based on a preliminary ballots) to determine which ones needed to be included in this list.
Here's my proposed mechanism. For this examle, we'll assume a 3-man election:
1) Normal balloting for all 3 slots.
2) Before results are made known, the talliers figure out whether any candidate has won election with more than 50% of ballots.
3) Subtract winners from step 2 from the total election slots. This is number of slots open in run-off.
4) Talliers (or coordinator) compose a ballot consisting of top n run-off candidates and inform the electorate of how many slots the players are vying for.
5) Run-off election determines the winner in the usual way (ranked ballot with bonuses for elect-me slots). No write-ins. The only eligible voters are those who cast a ballot in that year's general election. Winning candidate simply scores the most points.
6) Talliers determine winners, and full election results are reported by Coordinator in the usual manner but now include a run-off subsection below.
Other considerations:
1) I don't know whether comments are necessary for a run-off or not, we might want to discuss that.
2) Determining n important. Here's a couple ideas:
-Top ten vote getters who meet criterion (below 50% of ballots)
-Top vote getters within a certain percentage of the top fellow on the run-off ballot
-Top vote getters within a certain percentage of the top fellow on the run-off ballot, capped at ten.
3)Duration of run-off cycle. I doubt it's all that important, but I'd stick with a one-week cycle for run-offs too. Just in case.
4) Ten seems like a good, round number, but fewer works better than more. To achieve some level of majority/consensus, it's better to have fewer than more choices.
The runoff would cut off the the candidates who didn't receive a predetermined percentage of the ballots in that election (10%?)
Will it change the results? In most cases no (it would probably change induction years for certain candidates, that's all), but that wasn't the purpose of my suggestion. My purpose was to be able to proclaim to everyone on the outside that we had majority support for each inductee (no retro-retroactive elections, mind you). Not that I personally care about 28% of possible point tallies for an inductee, mind you, because our ballot results are not supposed to be compared to your normal HOF ballot results.
Personally, I like the HoM as it is and would personally oppose any limits to which candidates I can place on my ballot for our "annual" elections.
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