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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Sunday, August 19, 2007

2004 Ballot Discussion

2004 (September 10)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

414 129.9 1978 Paul Molitor-DH/3B
301 127.1 1975 Dennis Eckersley-P
233 92.1 1977 Dennis Martinez-P
240 66.9 1984 Joe Carter-LF/RF
188 84.7 1984 Jimmy Key-P
182 80.6 1979 Danny Darwin-P
202 67.2 1984 Terry Pendleton-3B
178 58.7 1986 Kevin Mitchell-LF
176 50.6 1984 Juan Samuel-2B
140 57.9 1986 Doug Drabek-P
160 47.4 1986 Cecil Fielder-1B
122 56.1 1988 Jack McDowell-P*
123 55.2 1987 Randy Myers-RP
138 44.1 1986 Bip Roberts-2B/LF
113 43.0 1991 Chris Hoiles-C
107 38.3 1987 Shane Mack-LF/CF

Players Passing Away in 2003
Age Elected

82 1971 Warren Spahn-P
79 1965 Larry Doby-CF

Age Eligible

99——Sam Lacy-Sportswriter
98 1946 Billy Rogell-SS
94 1953 Claude Passeau-P
87 1954 Max West-LF
86 1958 Johnny Hopp-CF/1B
79——Leonard Koppett-Sportswriter
75 1973 Johnny Klippstein-RP
75——Joan Kroc-Owner
68 1973 Earl Battey-C
64——Durwood Merrill-Umpire
57 1987 Bobby Bonds-RF
55 1987 Ken Brett-P

Thanks, Dan!

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 19, 2007 at 04:19 PM | 143 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Paul Wendt Posted: August 31, 2007 at 05:28 PM (#2506150)

So all but the worst SS have as much merit in the field as an average 2B; only the best 2B are as good as an average SS.
All but the very worst 2B (does anyone actually score -15?) are as "good" as an average 3B or CF.
All but the worst 3B and CF are as good as an average LF or RF.

But now with the contraction at the left end, numerous 1B are as good as an average LF or RF and vice versa.

This is the meaning of the numerical scale in practice,
this and how its span roughly 0 to 50 compares with the scales for batting/baserunning and pitching.
   102. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 31, 2007 at 05:46 PM (#2506167)
I believe WS underrates gloves going backwards in history relative to the weight/credit given to pitchers for preventing runs.

It almost certainly does, because of the fixed 67.5/32.5 base ratio for divvying up defensive WS between pitchers and fielders. What James should have done is used a sliding scale for pitcher-specific events (BB, HBP, K, HR) to assign a floor percentage for pitchers (which would be around 45% in today's game, and closer to 25-30% in the deadball era), and then divide the remaining percentage between fielders and hitters based on how you want to assign the responsibility for BIP: Davenport uses 70% fielding/30% pitching, James assumes a 50-50 split, and purist DIPSists assume 100% fielding/0% pitching.

-- MWE
   103. Mike Webber Posted: August 31, 2007 at 06:18 PM (#2506234)
Very interesting List in SABR's Negro League Newsletter (The Courier)

Before you scroll down to the list, here are a couple of trivia questions for you:

1. Who was the last of the Original Franchises to have a Latin Player?

2. Who was this Dominican third baseman that joined the last team to have a Latin Player in 1958 after coming over in a trade with the Giants?

(Hint: His son was a big leaguer too.)

3. Name the Dodger’s first Latin player, who joined the team in 1930. He was acquired after already having won 153 games with the Reds, and stayed two seasons before moving on to the Giants. He stayed with New York until finishing up his major league career at age 44.

Unfortunately I think the rest of the guys on the list are too obscure to have a good trivia question. Well not Mike Gonzalez, but no good one pops immediately to mind.

The 1st Latinos in Major League Baseball
Boston Braves, Mike Gonzalez, Cuba, 1912
Boston Red Sox, Eusebio Gonzalez, Cuba, 1918
Brooklyn Dodgers, Adolfo Luque, Cuba, 1930
Chicago Cubs, Chick Pedro, Cuba, 1902
Chicago White Sox, Jose Acosta, Cuba, 1922
Cincinnati Reds, Armando Marsans, Cuba, 1911
Cleveland Indians, Minnie Minoso, Cuba, 1949
Detroit Tigers, Ozzie Virgil, Sr., Dom. Rep, 1958
N.Y. Giants, Emilio Palmero, Cuba, 1915
N.Y. Yankees, Angel Aragon, Cuba, 1914
Philadelphia A’s, Luis Castro, Columbia, 1902
Philadelphia Phillies, Chili Gomez, Mexico, 1935
Pittsburgh Pirates, Tony Ordenana, Cuba, 1943
St. Louis Browns, Oscar Estrada, Cuba, 1929
St. Louis Cardinals, Oscar Tuero, Cuba, 1918
Washington Senators, Merito Acosta, Cuba, 1913
   104. Mike Webber Posted: August 31, 2007 at 06:37 PM (#2506286)
I guess maybe there might be a few good Minnie Minoso questions to huh?

How about this, On Oct 4, 1980 the 54 year old Minoso pinch-hit for the man that would be the opening day third baseman for the Kansas City Royals in 1984. Who did Minoso pinch-hit for?

He came to a local SABR meeting one time and told us all about this, and how his reaction went from - "well this is kind of cool," to "This is pretty embarrassing to be pinch hit for by an old man!"

Greg Pryor.
   105. TomH Posted: August 31, 2007 at 06:40 PM (#2506296)
Julio Franco has probably pinch hit for guys who were not born before Julio turned 24.
   106. Kenn Posted: August 31, 2007 at 07:03 PM (#2506365)

Yes, that is what the scale means. I can't tell if you're frowning in disapproval, but you may well be. One note is that I use a wider range of variability at the high end than the low end, so an above average fielder at one position ends up as a below average fielder at the next, but they don't necessarily have to be among the very best at their position to be average at the next. Anyway, I constantly adjust things, in response to feedback and to little tests I do, but a scale like that is the starting point. The reason I started out this way was to test many candidates quickly, and having done so I look at candidates within position head-to-head, but position vs. position can be very sketchy.
   107. Brent Posted: September 01, 2007 at 03:37 AM (#2507262)
St. Louis Cardinals, Oscar Tuero, Cuba, 1918

They missed Alfredo Cabrera, who played one game for St. Louis in 1913. Cabrera played 19 seasons in the Cuban League (1901-20) and was elected to the Cuban HoF in 1942. This list probably missed him because he was born in the Canary Islands; I assume, however, that he immigrated to Cuba prior to taking up baseball.
   108. Brent Posted: September 01, 2007 at 04:18 AM (#2507281)
Cabrera also shows up in Riley playing with the 1905 All Cubans. Riley doesn't list his first name and apparently was unaware that he was the same man who played for the Cardinals, but the rosters shown on this site show that it was Alfredo. Prior to about 1907 or 1908, few "white" Cubans were playing in U.S. organized baseball and the All Cubans were an integrated team--Cabrera's teammates on the All Cubans included future major leaguers like Armando Marsans and Rafael Almeida, as well as future Negro League stars like Luis Bustamante. Later, as minor league and, then, major league playing opportunities opened for those who could pass the color barrier, the All Cubans (renamed the Cuban Stars) were left with the players who were too dark to play in organized baseball. However, between the aughts and Jackie Robinson, there were still occasionally Latino players (like Manuel Cueto) who played in both the majors and the Negro Leagues.
   109. Mike Webber Posted: September 01, 2007 at 05:04 AM (#2507295)
Brent, since the one A Cabrera played short in the majors and 1b on the Cubans - 8 years earlier - does it give you pause to think maybe it isn't the same guy? I don't have any idea of course, but it is a big defensive spectrum shift the wrong way especially 8 years later...

Also as a Canary Islander could he be considered Spanish or possibly African instead of Latino? I feel kind of dumb asking this, but I don't know, are people from Spain Latin?

Apparently not per Wikipedia - for whatever that is worth.
Latino - Wikipedia
   110. Brent Posted: September 01, 2007 at 03:01 PM (#2507390)
I'm sure it's the same player; he's the only Alfredo Cabrera appearing in Figueredo; he played both 1B and SS in the Cuban League. Figueredo shows him in at least 3 photos--an olive-skinned man who would have been considered to be on the "white" side of the color line. Could there have been an "Alfredo Cabrera" from another Latin American country? According to bb-ref, the major league player died in Cuba. Also, prior to the 1920s, as far as I know Cuba was the only Latin American country with professional baseball. (The professional Mexican League started in 1925.) So it seems clear that there was only one Alfredo Cabrera playing high level baseball at that time and that he was a permanent resident or citizen of Cuba by the time he appeared in the majors.

There was quite a bit of immigration into Cuba during the late 19th century, mostly from Spain, but also from the Spanish-controlled Canary Islands. (For example, Connie Marrero is reported to be descended from Canary Islands immigrants.) Although I don't know any biographical details about Cabrera, the reasonable assumption is that he immigrated to Cuba as a youth and picked up baseball in Cuba. Assuming he was an immigrant, that should qualify him as a Latino.
   111. Brent Posted: September 01, 2007 at 08:37 PM (#2507539)
I forgot to mention that the only other "Cabrera" to play in the Cuban League prior to 1942 was an "F Cabrera," who played one game in the outfield. In the Cuban League, Alfredo Cabrera's position isn't recorded for 1901-02, and was 1B for 1903-04, SS for 1905-12, 2B for 1913, 1B for 1914-15, bench/utility for 1916, 1B for 1917, and bench again for 1919. (No season was held for the winter of 1917-18.) Cabrera played 1B for the 1903/05 All Cubans because SS was covered by Luis Bustamante, who was regarded as the premier Cuban shortstop of that era.
   112. Mike Webber Posted: September 01, 2007 at 08:54 PM (#2507572)

I just got this e-mail from Peter Bjarkman, and thought I would share it.

"Come on guys. Let’s not keep going over the same ground here. People keep thinking they have found something new, without checking the valid research that is already out there. If anyone wants a complete list of all Latino-born big leaguers, as well as all foreign-born big leagues from EVERY country), this is all available in my 2004 book DIAMONDAS AROUND THE GLOBE: THE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF INTERNATIONAL BASEBALL (Greenwood Press). It is all given to you there. Furthermore, the chronological listing of the Cuban players (which of course means most of the Latin players before 1940) is also repeated in my A HISTORY OF CUBAN BASEBALL, 1864-2006. People should look at those sources and stop reinventing the wheel. Jim Riley’s BIOGRAPHICAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF THE NEGRO BASEBALL LEAGUES is riddled throughout with errors, especially when it comes to Cuban players. He spells the names wrong in numerous cases, and in many cases has the same player listed as several different individuals.

At any rate, the lists of Latino and Cuban-born big leaguers in my two books are totally accurate with only one exception. That exception is the case of Chick Pedroes who (as we have been discussing in recent days) now appears to have been born in Havana and should be added to the list of Cuban-born players (1902, Chicago NL), though as I have already argued on Pedroes does not really count for much as a Cuban player since he came to the US as an infant and learned his baseball in the US. He was in truth an American ballplayer who just happened to be born to an American mother in Havana.

Now as far as Alfredo Cabrera is concerned, this is ridiculous to even bring him up. First of all he was born in the Spanish Canary Islands, which the last time I looked happens to be quite some distance from Latin America (no matter what map one is looking at). Cabrera is clearly and properly listed under European/Spanish players in the ballplayer origins list (p.381) in DIAMONDS AROUND THE GLOBE. If we are going to count Pedroes as Cuban and Luis Castro as Colombian (because they were born in those countries, no matter where they were raised), then we certainly have to count Cabrera as Spanish, not Cuban!

But even if one mistakenly thought Cabrera was from Cuba (he played there and died there but was not born there) there is no reason to raise his name in any first Latinos debate. He was preceded to the majors not only by Bellan in 1871 and Jud Castro and Chick Pedroes in 1902, but also by Cubans Almeida and Marsans (the two first “legitimate Cuban imports brought to the US specifically to play baseball with Cincinnati in 1911), as well as by Cubans Miguel Angel Gonzalez (Boston Braves 1912), Merito Acosta (Washington 1912) and Jacinto Calvo (Washington 1913).

Yes, Alfredo Cabrera played in the Cuban League in the first decade of the twentieth century, but so did Pop Lloyd, Preston Hill, Clarence Winston and a slew of Negro leaguers. That doesn’t make any of them Cubans. Alfredo Cabrera was “overlooked” in the “first Latino” discussion for the same reason that Honus Wagner was. He was born in Spain and thus wasn’t a “Latino” or a “Cuban” ballplayer.

Larry, please tell anyone wanting the list of Cuban ballplayers (minus the now-to-be-added with an asterisks Chick Pedroes) to look at DIMAONDS AROUND THE GLOBE or A HISTORY OF CUBAN BASEBALL.

Peter C. Bjarkman"
   113. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 01, 2007 at 10:18 PM (#2507760)
Gee, I wish Mr. Bjarkman wouldn't hedge his bets so much. Take a stand, man!!! ; )
   114. Howie Menckel Posted: September 01, 2007 at 11:15 PM (#2507811)
Does he mean "Diamonds" each time, I assume?

It's a little unnerving to see an 0 for 2 whiff on that word in the midst of a post criticizing inaccuracies of others - not that it means I dismiss the work by any means.
   115. sunnyday2 Posted: September 02, 2007 at 02:05 AM (#2508088)
Yeah, I don't know why a guy would cop an attitude. If he's an expert on a topic that not much is known about, then good for him. But to suggest that everybody else is stupid is, well, stupid.

But I'll say this. I have his Biographical History of Basketball and it is excellent. He is the author of more than 30 books (so it says on the back cover) on basketball and baseball and winner of the Macmillan-SABR research award in 1994.
   116. Brent Posted: September 02, 2007 at 04:05 AM (#2508334)

If post # 103 had said "first Latino-born player with each of the original major league franchises," I obviously wouldn't have mentioned Cabrera. But I think most of us understand there to be a difference. For example, I wouldn't include Tommy Phelps on a list of first Korean players on a franchise, though he would qualify if the criteria were first player born in Korea.

Meanwhile, Bjarkman conveniently avoids discussing what IMO is the central issue--was Cabrera a permanent resident or citizen of Cuba by the time he played for the Cardinals? Comparing him to Pop Lloyd is ridiculuous--does Bjarkman seriously think Cabrera resided most of the year in the Canary Islands (playing summer baseball in the "Canary Island League" I suppose!), and just dropped by Cuba each winter to make a few extra bucks? Although I don't have any direct evidence, the indirect evidence strongly suggests that Cabrera immigrated to Cuba as a child or teenager and regarded Cuba as his home for the rest of his life. Bjarkman may have a different definition, but that's a Cuban in my book.

Oh, and by the way, authors ought to learn that an arrogant attitude doesn't help them sell books.
   117. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 02, 2007 at 12:21 PM (#2508446)
Does he mean "Diamonds" each time, I assume?

...and does he have a section in the book on Legs, Selma, Neil and Dustin? ;-)
   118. Paul Wendt Posted: September 02, 2007 at 04:15 PM (#2508515)
the lists of Latino and Cuban-born big leaguers in my two books

He does say "Cuban-born". I don't know how that pertains to "Latino". To press that further depends on knowing just how the NLC newsletter and Mike Webber's email presented the matter.
(I do know that Bjarkman argued against the change in SABR research cmtee name from "Latin America" to "Latinos".)

I believe it is the norm (a default) in baseball lists to identify players with lands by birth. Thus Andy Leonard is Irish, Elmer Valo is Czech, Bert Blyleven is Dutch, Charley Jones is Southern.

For baseball history, where a player learned baseball is important, maybe most important, but it isn't commonly recognized as an alternative. For example, Brent mentions citizenship and residence between Cabrera's professional seasons.
   119. Howie Menckel Posted: September 02, 2007 at 07:26 PM (#2508901)
So Danny Graves is Viet Namese (well, partly true), and John McEnroe is a West German (hey, he was born in Wiesbaden, you can look it up).
   120. Paul Wendt Posted: September 02, 2007 at 10:19 PM (#2509190)
and New Hampshire's favorite son Carlton Fisk is a native of Vermont, born in a hospital on the West side of the river

Some mlbplayer is a native of shipboard in the Atlantic Ocean but they will never have enough to field a team.
   121. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 03, 2007 at 12:51 PM (#2509420)
Wow, a Selma Diamond reference. I haven't heard of her in like twenty years!

John, how about Mike Diamond (Mike D. of the Beastie Boys).
   122. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 03, 2007 at 01:55 PM (#2509438)
John, how about Mike Diamond (Mike D. of the Beastie Boys).

Forgot about him, Eric. Good one.
   123. Paul Wendt Posted: September 03, 2007 at 04:10 PM (#2509496)
Black Diamond(s) is the nickname of some players and clubs and the title of a children's book on the Negro Leagues, one that is doing very well in one sense, perhaps a standby every February.
Black Diamond teacher's guide by the Smithsonian Inst
   124. Mr Dashwood Posted: September 05, 2007 at 01:52 PM (#2512620)
I've found this a very annoying election, with a relief pitcher and designated hitter supplying the headliners. Anyway, a brief and very preliminary ballot. I will supply fuller comments on the final version, most of which will be copied from previous ballots.

1 Molitor - Way over the borderline.
2 Dave Concepcion - Or should this be for Tony Perez?
3 Bill Mazeroski
4 Kirby Puckett
5 Tony Perez - Might flip-flop him and Puckett.
6 Dennis Eckersley - I'm not sure about putting him this low. But I'm not putting him ahead of Maz.
7 Bob Johnson
8 Thurman Munson
9 Alejandro Oms
10 Pie Traynor

This is where the ballot gets really uncertain
11 Brett Butler - I still like him better than Dawson.
12 Phil Rizzuto - War credit at work.
13 Luis Tiant - My gut feeling tells me to put him higher
14 Reggie Smith - Not sure about this, I find his career hard to read.
15 Tim Wallach - He's got a better peak than Nettles.

Special mention - I'd hoped Dennis Martinez would do better under my system than he did. He's a sort of poor man's Rick Reuschel, in WARP terms, except his peak comes near the end of his career, where Reuschel's is at the start.
   125. TomH Posted: September 07, 2007 at 12:59 AM (#2514562)
I just read a bio (in The National Pasttime, a SABR pub - bio written by Dick Thompson) of Cannonball Bill Jackman, an African American pitcher who barnstormed from the 1920s thru the 1940s with many NgLg (and non-league) clubs. Fasincatin gresearch, enough that for a moment I considered whether we may have totally missed this guy who has gotten virtually no look from us. He rang up some amazingly good W-L marks over a very long career. The bio I read is extremely positive about his prowess, including glowing quotes from other greats he played against.

After some thinkin about the data and the source, and checking with a real NgLg expert I know, Jackman to me appears to be a guy who COULD have been a fine MLB pitcher, and even MIGHT have been an all-star. Beyond that (Hall of Merit caliber), it would be a push for me to speculate. Jackman may have at least been the best pitcher I had never heard of. But he won't make my ballot by a long shot.
   126. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 07, 2007 at 01:36 PM (#2514972)
Tom, that was a terrific bio on Jackman. But since we know the author of it has a tendency to go overboard on occasion ;-), he's not ready to make my ballot any time soon, either.
   127. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 07, 2007 at 01:40 PM (#2514976)
Does anyone know if STATS, Inc. has compiled a list of their All-Star selections post-1997? If they have, could somebody post it here or e-mail it directly to me? I would greatly appreciate it.
   128. sunnyday2 Posted: September 07, 2007 at 01:49 PM (#2514981)
fra's ballot is a model of balance.

C- Munson. A reasonable choice as the #1 eligible C though this is well above the consensus.
1B- Perez. A reasonable choice as the #1 eligible 1B and only somewhat above consensus.
2B- Mazeroski. A reasonable choice as the #1 eligible 2B but only because there's nobody else. Way above consensus.
SS- Concepcion and Rizzuto. Reasonable choices as the #1 and 2 eligible SS though there is an embarrassment of riches to choose from. The current thought/trend around here is to go for D.
3B- Traynor and Wallach. Reasonable...wait, Tim Wallach? Omigod. But Traynor is a reasonable choice for #1 eligible 3B though there are plenty of good choices available. Current thought/trend is to go for D.
LF- Bob Johnson. A know.
CF- Puckett, Oms, Brett Butler and Reggie Smith. Reasonable...wait, Brett Butler? Omigod. But the other 3 are all reasonable choices.
RF- All of the CF other than Butler could slot here very nicely.
DH- Molitor. Doh!
P- Tiant and...and...and...oh, that's it? A reasonable choice as the #1 eligible P? I dunno about that one, I have him around #10 and I thought I was being pretty generous.

All reasonable choices, well, except for a couple-3 surprises and a shortage of arms. Mush them all together and you get, what? A very very low consensus ballot. Reasonable and looooooowwwww. Beyond reproach. And idiosyncratic as hell. Such is the HoM in the era of 100 credible candidates. Interesting.
   129. DL from MN Posted: September 07, 2007 at 05:59 PM (#2515337)
Okay, I've rippled the WAR data through most of my backlog (still doing pre-1890 and NGL players) and here's the biggest movers in the top 200.

player ranking changes
Harmon Killebrew -82
Dave Winfield -81
Ron Santo -57
Joe Torre -53
Jake Beckley -52
Darrell Evans -51
Ted Simmons -51
Sam Crawford -49
Carl Yastrzemski -48
Dick Allen -47

Charlie Keller +71
Enos Slaughter +66 (also fixed war credit)
Robin Yount +61
John Mize +55 (also fixed war credit)
Stan Hack +49
Lou Whitaker +46
Jimmy Sheckard +38
Joe Jackson +34
Charley Jones +34
Joe Cronin +33
   130. DL from MN Posted: September 07, 2007 at 06:12 PM (#2515360)
Ooops, Darrell Evans moved UP not DOWN.
   131. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 07, 2007 at 07:23 PM (#2515491)
Killebrew doesn't surprise me at all; my system hates him due to horrific defense, tons of double plays, an expansion league, and a very high 1B rep level in the immediate pre-DH era. My system isn't so impressed with Winfield either, and finds Simmons' double play propensity and non-SB baserunning so atrocious even by catcher standards that it docks him a good deal. Yaz I can see taking a hit too just because so much of his career bulk wasn't really worth very much. Since it's so fond of shortstops, the boosts to Cronin and Yount are to be expected too. And Win Shares is just so ecstatic about Sheckard's defense that his improvement makes sense as well.

However, I would not have expected Santo and Allen to drop, nor Hack to climb. My system looks quite favorably on the first two, and is a bit lukewarm on the third. You're not penalizing Santo for his putrid 1974, are you??
   132. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 07, 2007 at 07:27 PM (#2515497)
Someday when dick allen's baserunning is fully documented, I bet he'll move back up a bit. He was supposedly a terror on the bases, and the late-career baserunning information that James Click did before the second retrosheet update (so, 1972-onward) shows him having good baserunning value as an older player.
   133. DL from MN Posted: September 07, 2007 at 07:46 PM (#2515529)
I made sure to help out Santo as best as I could. What I think I'm seeing is the difference in fielding ratings between FWAA and FRAR/FRAA. Brooks and Boyer fell and so did Buddy Bell.
   134. sunnyday2 Posted: September 07, 2007 at 08:55 PM (#2515636)
So we should take it that Killebrew sucked, but we should look the other way on Santo, or what?
   135. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 07, 2007 at 09:04 PM (#2515649)
Gosh, I thought my system was a big fan of Buddy Bell! And Santo's FWAA ratings are terrific...10.1 FWAA from 1963 to 68 is about as good as it gets...remember FWAA is just a hybrid of BP FRAA and Fielding WS before 1987, just adjusted to fit Chris Dial's Zone Rating standard deviations.
   136. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 07, 2007 at 09:07 PM (#2515652)
sunnyday, the data are what they are, people can interpret them however they want. One of the most rewarding things about spending as much time as I have on this project is seeing other voters use my data as arguments in favor of candidates I don't personally support (Tommy Leach and Bob Johnson are often named). I think it's clear that my WARP numbers are far less favorable to Killebrew than, say, WS is, but I don't know if that means he "sucked." He's not in my PHoM though. I was just surprised that Santo would drop in DL from MN's rankings after his incorporation of my work, since Santo's 1963-68 peak comes out like gangbusters in my system.
   137. DL from MN Posted: September 07, 2007 at 10:10 PM (#2515697)
They do well but I was really overcrediting the fielding of 3B previously.
   138. Juan V Posted: September 08, 2007 at 01:50 AM (#2516115)
Guys, this weekend I'll be going away on vacation for a few weeks. I have already done work on the class of 2005, but just in case I'll be posting this 18-man prelim. If I don't make it on time, could someone post this as my ballot for then (with the necessary adjustments, of course)?

1-WADE BOGGS: A monster during his Red Sox years. I have him over Brett.

2-DENNIS ECKERSLEY: Not quite Gossage or Wilhelm, but the starter years make up for it. I must admit I was surprised at the height of the starter peak, which makes his rise as high as he is here.

3-PAUL MOLITOR: I've always liked him, for some reason. All the DH-ing puts him well below all the infielders we have been inducting recently (except Randolph and maybe Whitaker). BTW, I'm counting him as a third baseman on my spreadsheets.

4-LUIS TIANT: The 114 ERA+ over a little less than 3500 innings is unimpressive, specially considering his contemporaries, but he really shined with unearned runs (roughly 8.5% of total runs allowed, compared to about 11.5% for his era).

5-GAVY CRAVATH: Clearly better than the borderline, Clarke and Flick seem to be good value comparables (maybe Winfield as well). With MLE credit, his peak is on the Kiner/Keller class, with the career that those two lack. So what if he took special advantage of his home park? He did it better than most, and his teams got value out of that.

6-BUS CLARKSON: New MLEs incorporated. Glad to see the debate on him re-sparked, as we may be missing a gem here. In any case, he has well over 300 MLEed Win Shares, and an OPS+ around 120 from a SS/3B. The better part of his career, including his SS peak, took place before the Negro League scene got outta whack (although he was still well traveled). He was one of the reasons I decided to establish my new offense system, and under it he truly shines. I am discounting his 1940 a bit.

7-VIC WILLIS: Almost 4000 innings at a 118 ERA+ put him pretty close to the average Hall of Fame starter (probably the average Hall of Meriter is a bit better). Seeing how this is squeezed into relatively few seasons, the result is a HOMable peak. Unearned runs are about average for his era, so they don't change his standing too much.

8-BRET SABERHAGEN: I have agonized on whether a starter can make a HOM case on barely over 2500 IP, but Sabes has a lot of positives. His low career totals are a function of injuries, not low use (for his era, at least), and his seasonal highs in IP and ERA+ seem to converge, giving him an excellent peak. Having 8% unearned runs doesn't hurt, either.

9-ROGER BRESNAHAN: His case has a good bit of context, as it depends on how you account for the brutal conditions for catchers of his time. I like the OBP-heavy production. Should be the favorite candidate of "gap-fillers", along with Clarkson.

10-ALEJANDRO OMS: While the hitting value isn't as much as I once thought, there's too many Win Shares here to ignore. They give him a long career, with a considerable peak as well.

11-DAVID CONCEPCION: Averagish-bat, All-Time defense, and a really low baseline to compare him against. Clearly, my favorite among all the middle infielders with a similar profile. I believe there is a "real" reason why shortstops of his time were so bad with the bat, giving him real value.

12-TONY LAZZERI: My old teddy bear (although, given my relatively short time voting, does it qualify him as "old"?). Where's the support for a 120 OPS+ second baseman? Was the defense really that bad (and why it doesn't show up on the uberstats, which put him clearly north of Larry Doyle territory)? Is my estimation of the baseline for 1930s second basemen that far off?

13-FRED DUNLAP: Another "unearthed" candidate. Even with an UA discount, that 1884 season was monstrous.

14-BEN TAYLOR: Comparable to Will Clark, but with a longer career and, because of the defensive demands of the position at his time, a lower baseline for comparision.

15-TONY PEREZ: Most of his best offensive years were as a 3B, thus raising his peak to the level where it can be "carried" by his career.

16-JACK QUINN: The Beckley of pitchers, with some Julio Franco sprinkled in. He showed up in the oldest player leaderboards in 1919, and played for 14 years after that. Peak is meh, but there's too much career value for me to ignore.

17-DALE MURPHY: His '82-'87 peak (with 1980 thrown in as a complement) gets my attention. It is a high peak, and just long enough to get a strong showing on my system, which is important since he barely has anything else.

18-BOB JOHNSON: His strong prime shows up in his career value on my system, yet he doesn't have the peak to stand up to a Cravath.
   139. Juan V Posted: September 08, 2007 at 01:52 AM (#2516123)
Oh, and Tony Phillips is in the 70's. As a good utility man, he gives my sistem fits, but I don't think I'm missing by a big enough margin to make him a good candidate. He was good with Detroit, but there's not much else.
   140. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 08, 2007 at 03:12 AM (#2516271)
I'll take care of it, Juan.
   141. Qufini Posted: September 08, 2007 at 03:31 AM (#2516283)
Juan V., isn't Saberhagen eligible for the next election, not this one? I thought he was as I'll possibly be voting for him, too.
   142. Chris Cobb Posted: September 08, 2007 at 03:49 AM (#2516289)
Chris, Juan's ballot is for 2005, not the current election.

Saberhagen's last real season was 1999 (the 15-inning failed comeback in 2001 doesn't reset his eligibility clock), so 2005 is his year.

He may well make my ballot, too.
   143. Qufini Posted: September 08, 2007 at 05:06 AM (#2516307)
Thanks, Chris. I missed that part.
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