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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, September 24, 2007

2005 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Wade Boggs, Bret Saberhagen, Tony Phillips, Chili Davis, Gary Gaetti, Darryl Strawberry, Mark Langston and Willie McGee.

Top-ten returnees: Pete Browning, Kirby Puckett, Bob Johnson, Andre Dawson, Alejandro Oms, Cannonball Dick Redding and Bucky Walters.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 24, 2007 at 12:07 PM | 119 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 24, 2007 at 12:17 PM (#2539754)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

Weird not having Bresnahan on my ballot, BTW. Not complaining, though. :-)

1) Wade Boggs-3B/DH (n/e): Question: which eligible player has a better combined peak, prime and career than Boggs? Answer: none. Best ML third baseman for 1984, 1986, 1987, 1988 and in a virtual tie for 1994. Best AL third baseman for 1983, 1989 and 1991.

2) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (3): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

3) Lee Smith-RP (4): Having his career occur during a major rethinking of his position really distorts his true value, IMO. All things equal, Gossage was better, but not that much better. Never the best for any one season, but consistently among the best for many a year.

4) Bucky Walters-P (6): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

5) Mickey Welch-P (7): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

6) Pete Browning-CF/LF (8): Like to see the Duke of Tralee go in before the Gladiator, but I certainly wont complain. Gotta love the peak and prime! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

7) Vic Willis-P (9): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

8) Gavvy Cravath-RF (10): I buy the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11 (not full credit for '08, since he did play some in the majors that year). Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

9) Alejandro Oms-CF (11): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should have gathered more and more support over the next few "years," but... Curse this electorate! ;-)

10) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (12): Best third baseman of the Forties. He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career when compared to other third basemen throughout history. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 24, 2007 at 12:18 PM (#2539755)
11) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (13): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

12) Pie Traynor-3B (14): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

13) Burleigh Grimes-P (n/e): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

14) Bobby Bonds (n/e): First time ever on my ballot. One of my favorites growing up as a kid. He could do it all. Made his debut on my 3rd birthday, which I believe means something. Best ML right fielder for 1970 (close in 1971). Best NL right fielder for 1971 and 1973.

15) Reggie Smith (n/e): My second newbie backlogger for this election. Underrated since he could do everything well instead of being a specialist in one area. Best AL rightfielder for 1972. Close to being the best AL centerfielder for 1968. Best NL rightfielder for 1974.

Dawson, Puckett, Redding and Johnson all exist in my top-40, but they just fall short.
   3. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 24, 2007 at 12:23 PM (#2539757)
This is Juan V's ballot:

Guys, this weekend I'll be going away on vacation for a few weeks. I have already done work on the class of 2005, but just in case I'll be posting this 18-man prelim. If I don't make it on time, could someone post this as my ballot for then (with the necessary adjustments, of course)?

1-WADE BOGGS: A monster during his Red Sox years. I have him over Brett.

2-DENNIS ECKERSLEY: Not quite Gossage or Wilhelm, but the starter years make up for it. I must admit I was surprised at the height of the starter peak, which makes his rise as high as he is here.

3-PAUL MOLITOR: I've always liked him, for some reason. All the DH-ing puts him well below all the infielders we have been inducting recently (except Randolph and maybe Whitaker). BTW, I'm counting him as a third baseman on my spreadsheets.

4-LUIS TIANT: The 114 ERA+ over a little less than 3500 innings is unimpressive, specially considering his contemporaries, but he really shined with unearned runs (roughly 8.5% of total runs allowed, compared to about 11.5% for his era).

5-GAVY CRAVATH: Clearly better than the borderline, Clarke and Flick seem to be good value comparables (maybe Winfield as well). With MLE credit, his peak is on the Kiner/Keller class, with the career that those two lack. So what if he took special advantage of his home park? He did it better than most, and his teams got value out of that.

6-BUS CLARKSON: New MLEs incorporated. Glad to see the debate on him re-sparked, as we may be missing a gem here. In any case, he has well over 300 MLEed Win Shares, and an OPS+ around 120 from a SS/3B. The better part of his career, including his SS peak, took place before the Negro League scene got outta whack (although he was still well traveled). He was one of the reasons I decided to establish my new offense system, and under it he truly shines. I am discounting his 1940 a bit.

7-VIC WILLIS: Almost 4000 innings at a 118 ERA+ put him pretty close to the average Hall of Fame starter (probably the average Hall of Meriter is a bit better). Seeing how this is squeezed into relatively few seasons, the result is a HOMable peak. Unearned runs are about average for his era, so they don't change his standing too much.

8-BRET SABERHAGEN: I have agonized on whether a starter can make a HOM case on barely over 2500 IP, but Sabes has a lot of positives. His low career totals are a function of injuries, not low use (for his era, at least), and his seasonal highs in IP and ERA+ seem to converge, giving him an excellent peak. Having 8% unearned runs doesn't hurt, either.

9-ROGER BRESNAHAN: His case has a good bit of context, as it depends on how you account for the brutal conditions for catchers of his time. I like the OBP-heavy production. Should be the favorite candidate of "gap-fillers", along with Clarkson.

10-ALEJANDRO OMS: While the hitting value isn't as much as I once thought, there's too many Win Shares here to ignore. They give him a long career, with a considerable peak as well.

11-DAVID CONCEPCION: Averagish-bat, All-Time defense, and a really low baseline to compare him against. Clearly, my favorite among all the middle infielders with a similar profile. I believe there is a "real" reason why shortstops of his time were so bad with the bat, giving him real value.

12-TONY LAZZERI: My old teddy bear (although, given my relatively short time voting, does it qualify him as "old"?). Where's the support for a 120 OPS+ second baseman? Was the defense really that bad (and why it doesn't show up on the uberstats, which put him clearly north of Larry Doyle territory)? Is my estimation of the baseline for 1930s second basemen that far off?

13-FRED DUNLAP: Another "unearthed" candidate. Even with an UA discount, that 1884 season was monstrous.

14-BEN TAYLOR: Comparable to Will Clark, but with a longer career and, because of the defensive demands of the position at his time, a lower baseline for comparision.

15-TONY PEREZ: Most of his best offensive years were as a 3B, thus raising his peak to the level where it can be "carried" by his career.

16-JACK QUINN: The Beckley of pitchers, with some Julio Franco sprinkled in. He showed up in the oldest player leaderboards in 1919, and played for 14 years after that. Peak is meh, but there's too much career value for me to ignore.

17-DALE MURPHY: His '82-'87 peak (with 1980 thrown in as a complement) gets my attention. It is a high peak, and just long enough to get a strong showing on my system, which is important since he barely has anything else.

18-BOB JOHNSON: His strong prime shows up in his career value on my system, yet he doesn't have the peak to stand up to a Cravath.
   4. Rusty Priske Posted: September 24, 2007 at 12:35 PM (#2539761)
PHoM: Wade Boggs, Vic Willis, Bill Freehan

1. Wade Boggs (new)

Not even close to a race.

2. Andre Dawson (2,3,11)

3. Tony Perez (3,2,1)

I am a career voter and these two are not getting their due.

4. Tommy Leach (5,5,3)

A flip back and forth between him and GVH.

5. Reggie Smith (6,11,8)

Another guy I waver on a lot. He has the career numbers but just doesn't jump out you.

6. George van Haltren (4,6,2)

Longest lasting oversight (not) in the Hall.

7. Mickey Welch (10,7,4)

Not quite GVH as an oversight, but close.

8. Lou Brock (7,8,6)

Stolen bases mean something.

9. Graig Nettles (9,10,9)

10. Rusty Staub (8,9,7)

A couple more career guys who did a lot for their teams.

11. Hugh Duffy (11,12,12)

I don't like that he passed GVH for most total points, but I still think he deserves entry.

12. Ken Singleton (13,x,x)

See #9-10

13. Bob Johnson (15,15,15)

Perrenial ballot filler slides up a bit.

14. Orlando Cepeda (14,14,13)

15. Kirby Puckett (x,x,x)

Finds his way onto my ballot.

16-20. Cash, Redding, Willis, Browning, Murphy
21-25. Bonds, Streeter, Monroe, Mullane, Strong
26-30. Greene, Doyle, Gleason, McCormick, Grimes
   5. rawagman Posted: September 24, 2007 at 12:48 PM (#2539767)
Here is Juan V's ballot without last "year's" electees:
1-WADE BOGGS: A monster during his Red Sox years. I have him over Brett.

2-LUIS TIANT: The 114 ERA+ over a little less than 3500 innings is unimpressive, specially considering his contemporaries, but he really shined with unearned runs (roughly 8.5% of total runs allowed, compared to about 11.5% for his era).

3-GAVY CRAVATH: Clearly better than the borderline, Clarke and Flick seem to be good value comparables (maybe Winfield as well). With MLE credit, his peak is on the Kiner/Keller class, with the career that those two lack. So what if he took special advantage of his home park? He did it better than most, and his teams got value out of that.

4-BUS CLARKSON: New MLEs incorporated. Glad to see the debate on him re-sparked, as we may be missing a gem here. In any case, he has well over 300 MLEed Win Shares, and an OPS+ around 120 from a SS/3B. The better part of his career, including his SS peak, took place before the Negro League scene got outta whack (although he was still well traveled). He was one of the reasons I decided to establish my new offense system, and under it he truly shines. I am discounting his 1940 a bit.

5-VIC WILLIS: Almost 4000 innings at a 118 ERA+ put him pretty close to the average Hall of Fame starter (probably the average Hall of Meriter is a bit better). Seeing how this is squeezed into relatively few seasons, the result is a HOMable peak. Unearned runs are about average for his era, so they don't change his standing too much.

6-BRET SABERHAGEN: I have agonized on whether a starter can make a HOM case on barely over 2500 IP, but Sabes has a lot of positives. His low career totals are a function of injuries, not low use (for his era, at least), and his seasonal highs in IP and ERA+ seem to converge, giving him an excellent peak. Having 8% unearned runs doesn't hurt, either.

7-ALEJANDRO OMS: While the hitting value isn't as much as I once thought, there's too many Win Shares here to ignore. They give him a long career, with a considerable peak as well.

8-DAVID CONCEPCION: Averagish-bat, All-Time defense, and a really low baseline to compare him against. Clearly, my favorite among all the middle infielders with a similar profile. I believe there is a "real" reason why shortstops of his time were so bad with the bat, giving him real value.

9-TONY LAZZERI: My old teddy bear (although, given my relatively short time voting, does it qualify him as "old"?). Where's the support for a 120 OPS+ second baseman? Was the defense really that bad (and why it doesn't show up on the uberstats, which put him clearly north of Larry Doyle territory)? Is my estimation of the baseline for 1930s second basemen that far off?

10-FRED DUNLAP: Another "unearthed" candidate. Even with an UA discount, that 1884 season was monstrous.

11-BEN TAYLOR: Comparable to Will Clark, but with a longer career and, because of the defensive demands of the position at his time, a lower baseline for comparision.

12-TONY PEREZ: Most of his best offensive years were as a 3B, thus raising his peak to the level where it can be "carried" by his career.

13-JACK QUINN: The Beckley of pitchers, with some Julio Franco sprinkled in. He showed up in the oldest player leaderboards in 1919, and played for 14 years after that. Peak is meh, but there's too much career value for me to ignore.

14-DALE MURPHY: His '82-'87 peak (with 1980 thrown in as a complement) gets my attention. It is a high peak, and just long enough to get a strong showing on my system, which is important since he barely has anything else.

15-BOB JOHNSON: His strong prime shows up in his career value on my system, yet he doesn't have the peak to stand up to a Cravath.
   6. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 24, 2007 at 01:13 PM (#2539788)
Here is Juan V's ballot without last "year's" electees:

I was waiting for someone who would be compelled to update Juan's ballot. ;-)
   7. ronw Posted: September 24, 2007 at 02:57 PM (#2539950)
2005 Ballot – Big shakeup this week. I have used a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m relying less on WS of late.

1. Wade Boggs. Strangely unappreciated. Never really has stepped out of the significant Schmidt/Brett shadow.

2. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined. I’m going to be disappointed if he never makes it to the HOM.

3. Pete Browning. There may have been just two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. Of course, as Chris Cobb pointed out, Anson may also have been better, but I think the list stops there.

4. Larry Doyle. His hitting peak continues to impress me.

5. Pie Traynor. Probably the biggest omission we have based on reputation and longetivity. Yes, he was a product of the batting average frenzy, but who is to say that he couldn’t become an OBP monster. Admittedly a fine fielder.

6. Bob Johnson. Strong player every year of his 12-year career. At 38, did what a HOMer is supposed to do in a wartime league.

7. Tommy Leach. A good player from an underrepresented period.

8. Sal Bando. High enough late-60’s early 70’s peak that comparables like Bell and Cey seem to lack.

9. Reggie Smith. His rise in the standings made me take another look at him. I think I overlooked him.

10. George Van Haltren. Still some support from me.

11. Dizzy Dean Seems a better choice than Walters. Outstanding from 1932-1937, and even when he was able to pitch for the rest of his career.

12. Ken Singleton. Similar to Reggie Smith.

13. Tony Perez The career is too much to ignore.

14. Ben Taylor. I think Ben was a smidgen better than Jake Beckley. I have no idea what KJOK has discovered to drop Taylor from the ballot.

15. Jack Clark. Fabulous hitter.

LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

CF. Hugh Duffy. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but I think that is mostly Win Shares talking. Other than 1894, no impressive OPS+ or hitting WARP numbers. Also, there is question about his historical greatness as a fielder, especially since he moved to RF for Billy Hamilton.

CF. Alejandro Oms. Pretty solid, but doesn’t seem to have spectacular seasons.

RF. Andre Dawson –Not a high enough batting peak for an outfielder.

SP. Bucky Walters. What a pitching peak, but too much of it is war years.
   8. Adam Schafer Posted: September 24, 2007 at 03:18 PM (#2539991)
I have Saberhagen way down the list practically tied with Stieb (had he not been elected) and Cicotte.

1. Wade Boggs - no need to explain

2. Gavy Cravath - there's no arguement that he took advantage of his park. i say great for him. no one else on his team was able to do it to the extent that he did.

3. Lee Smith - I am sure this won't be popular. Someone has to be a fan of the reliever. Might as well be me. I voted for Fingers, Gossage, Wilhelm, and continue to vote for Sutter and Jack Quinn. As far as I'm concerned, he is the Eddie Murray of relievers. Never really stood out, or pops into your mind as a stud, but quite consistent, and for quite a long time. I would have no problem with the HOM or HOF opening their doors to more relievers.

4. Orlando Cepeda - very consistent for a long time.

5. Bucky Walters - not as much career value as I typcially like, but enough peak to offset for the lack of career.

6. Don Newcombe - if you give him any NeL and Korean War credit, he has quite a case.

7. Bus Clarkson - I am willing to speculate that he was better than Stephens.

8. Vern Stephens - a power hitting, perrennial MVP shortstop is someone I can vote for.

9. Bruce Sutter - basically the same arguement as I have for Walters.

10. Elston Howard - I admit, I missed the boat with him a long time ago. Given proper credit, and my love of catchers, he should've been on my ballot long ago.

11. Chuck Klein - see Cravath

12. Bobby Veach - Tons of credit for pitching in 1918...ok, just kidding. Good career value though. Similar to Cepeda in the sense that he never stood out, but was consistent for a long time.

13. Jack Quinn - giving him credit for PCL play, being a fan of relievers, and a ton of career value makes him a viable candidate for my ballot. if he had been in the majors before the age of 25, I believe he would've got 300 wins and that milestone would've made a huge difference to some voters.

14. Ernie Lombardi - I understand why some people don't like him, I really do. I never imagined that his support would be so small though.

15. Lefty Gomez - he played for great did Red Ruffing...i'm not penalizing him for that.

Andre Dawson
Johnny Pesky
Don Mattingly
Rocky Colavito
Dolf Luque
Hack Wilson
Cecil Travis
Hugh Duffy
Thurman Munson
Levi Meyerle

I have Browning at 33, Bob Johnson at 42, Kirby Pucket at 49, Tony Perez at 67. Cannonball and Oms aren't close to my ballot. Bus Clarkson is the last deserving NeL player IMO...without any new data anyway.
   9. Chris Cobb Posted: September 24, 2007 at 03:38 PM (#2540033)

What does Lefty Gomez have that Saberhagen doesn't?

Gomez, 2503 IP, 125 ERA+
Saberhagen, 2562 IP, 126 ERA+

I could see having Saberhagen off your ballot (down with Steib), but not if you are voting for Lefty Gomez . . .
   10. DL from MN Posted: September 24, 2007 at 03:44 PM (#2540043)
2005 Ballot

I'm leaning more modern-pitcher heavy this year but I did find room for 4 players who didn't pitch or play 3B.

1) Wade Boggs - Ranks just behind Brett and Mathews, way ahead of Molitor.
2) Luis Tiant - Top 3 seasons WARP1 - Stieb 29.2, Tiant 30.3 - Tiant wins on peak. Top 8 seasons WARP1 - Stieb 67.8, Tiant 67.4 - tied on prime. Stieb only has 2 seasons over 4 WARP1 outside of his best 8 and Tiant has 5 - Tiant wins Career. The only advantage I see for Stieb is consecutiveness of prime and that doesn't matter to my ballot.
3) Bob Johnson - 12 consecutive seasons of 25-40% above average play is worth an elect-me slot. Better than contemporaries we have elected.
4) Tommy Bridges - this is the WWII era pitcher we are missing, not Walters
5) Bus Clarkson - Two NgL all-star selections in the 40s with a war in between. Two MVP caliber seasons in the Texas League in the 50s. August 14th entry in Ball Four added a little more evidence for me explaining why more black players didn't see the majors in the 50s-70s.
6) Rick Reuschel - Good fielder and good hitter for a pitcher, there is extra value there. Same PRAA as Stieb but Reuschel had more value over a replacement.
7) Graig Nettles - Well rounded player, great glove and good bat. I have him better than Ken Boyer but not quite Brooks Robinson.
8) Bret Saberhagen - a strong debut (PHoM) but not the top modern pitcher available, I hope he doesn't leapfrog Tiant or Reuschel. Best pitcher in his league several times.
9) Virgil Trucks - Fireballer who successfully transitioned when the fastball left. Was an outstanding minor leaguer also. Some relief leverage late career and deserves war credit.
10) Reggie Smith - Andre Dawson plus walks is a back of the envelope comparison. Dawson has a higher peak but Smith has the longer prime as he was much more effective late-career.
11) Norm Cash - Good fielding 1B with a bunch of good seasons and one off the charts.
12) Tommy Leach - long career in 3B and CF, great glove and good bat.
13) Ben Taylor - Probably on-ballot for the next few years. I think he's been overlooked. Might be the best fielding 1B of his era, good bat to go along with it.
14) Lee Smith - Modern pitcher re-eval helps Smith see the ballot, he was already PHoM.
15) Ron Cey - The in-out line at 3B is somewhere between here and Bob Elliott.
16-20) Gavy Cravath, Dick Redding, Vic Willis, Jim McCormick, Urban Shocker
21-25) Buddy Bell, Dutch Leonard, Tommy John, Lave Cross, Wally Schang
26-30) John McGraw, Jack Quinn, Alejandro Oms, Bob Elliott, Gene Tenace

45) Andre Dawson - Not that far off, just behind Jose Cruz and Kiki Cuyler
53) Bucky Walters - much of his pitching was actually defense
64) Pete Browning - Hard to gauge but he probably had negative defensive value
108) Kirby Puckett - career too short, he had the talent
   11. yest Posted: September 24, 2007 at 03:58 PM (#2540061)
Like to see the Duke of Tralee go in before the Gladiator, but I certainly wont complain. Gotta love the peak and prime!

there's no point in gloating
   12. Adam Schafer Posted: September 24, 2007 at 04:32 PM (#2540112)
Chris, I'm a lifelong Royals fan, so I love and hate Sabes all at the same time. The biggest thing for me that Lefty has that Sabes doesn't is consistency. He had two good years outside of KC, 94 and 98. If the Royals team Hall of Fame wasn't already such a joke (Gubicza and Busby?!) I wouldn't even be an advocate for him to enter that. I know the majority here will disagree with me, but when it boils down to it, two pitchers side by side, more or less same amount of career, I want the one that was consistent year in and year out instead of one that was back and forth. Sabes peak was good, but it would have to be GREAT, or I would have to have more consistency or more career value for him to make my ballot.
   13. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 24, 2007 at 04:34 PM (#2540114)
Gomez was pretty up-and-down as well...
   14. DL from MN Posted: September 24, 2007 at 04:41 PM (#2540121)
> Sabes peak was good, but it would have to be GREAT, or I would have to have more
> consistency or more career value for him to make my ballot.

I thought it was all about the pennants...
   15. sunnyday2 Posted: September 24, 2007 at 05:01 PM (#2540146)
2005 (elect 3)

Again, I’m mostly a peak/prime Win Shares voter though I look at a lot of information—especially my own annual MVP ballot and all-star selections, OPS+ and ERA+, HoFS, HoFM, ink, etc.—in trying to correctly interpret the numbers.

I’ve re-done my backlog “bats” in light of both our HoM and my PHoM candidates mostly being hitters. Duffy was the big gainer, but subjectively I understand that WS overrates him, so he just sneaks on to the ballot at #13. Browning moves up, too, along with Rosen, Cravath, Hack Wilson, (Sheckard), F. Howard and others (only Rosen along with Duffy among the "bats" actually moves on to the ballot.)

2005 PHoM—Boggs, Rosen, Duffy

* PHoM/not HoM so far 21st century elections—Puckett, Mattingly, Munson, Dean, Dawson, Pesky, Rosen?, Duffy?

HoM/not PHoM 21st century elections—Whitaker, Trammell, Randolph, Stieb, Bresnahan

1. Wade Boggs (new, PHoM 2005)—probably over-rated but even so, comfortably at the head of this class

2. Dizzy Dean (2-3-5, PHoM 2002)—for a peak voter, the one big oversight of the HoM project to date

3. Ed Williamson (12-6-6, PHoM 1924)—more peak and more glove than than any other available IF including my HoM/not PHoM candidates Trammell and Whitaker

4. Phil Rizzuto (9-14-12, PHoM 1995)—lots of Yankees on this list; fact is, I hate the Yankees, but they had the horses or in this case the gloves

5. Elston Howard (5-5-9, PHoM 1994)
6. Don Newcombe (7-9-7, PHoM 1997)—these 2 guys missed more opportunities than anybody; Newcombe coulda been Robin Roberts, for Howard the comp is Mickey Cochrane

7. Pete Browning (14-11-10, PHoM 1961)—Pete moves up a little, too, though AA discount remains in effect

8. Tommy Bond (11-12-23, PHoM 1929)—he’s baaaack; pretty much the all-time WS peak monster even after I give his defenses half his credit

9. Larry Doyle (8-13-14, PHoM 1975)—an eminently deserving MVP at his best

10. Andre Dawson (13-8-8, PHoM 2003)—tied with Lou Brock for the longest career of my 30 hitters, of course a higher OPS+ than Lou—actually the same as Duffy; in fact, he’s the modern equivalent of Duffy IMO with excellent all-around skills

11. Johnny Pesky (15-24-24, PHoM 2004)—28 WS (in his rookie season) and 34 WS in the years before and after spending 3 years fighting WWII; adjusted WS peak (adjusted to 162 games), then, is 36-30-30, compared to Rizzuto’s 37-27-26 and Trammel’s 35-29-26; rate is 23.8 to Rizzuto and Trammel’s 22.5; rates below Rizzuto due to his years in the wilderness of 3B

12. Al Rosen (18-38-34, PHoM 2005)—the #1 WS peak of anybody in my 30 hitters but, of course, the shortest career of the lot; but, also fills a position imbalance

13. Hugh Duffy (34-26-29, PHoM 2005)—I understand WS over-rates him, that’s why he’s here and not higher up

14. Addie Joss (21-20-25, PHoM 1967)—all-time great ERA+

15. Kirby Puckett (3-4-2, PHoM 2001)—drops down after re-eval

Close—i.e. right around in/out line, as I think we will elect about 7-8 more backloggers before we’re done

(15a. Alan Trammell [24a-11a-11])
16. Tommy Leach (28-44-49, PHoM 1998)
17. Gavvy Cravath (17-21-37, PHoM 1995)
18. Dick Redding (24-18-28, PHoM 1971)
19. Vern Stephens (22-19-13)
(19a. Jimmy Sheckard [50c-HM-49a])
20. Dick Lundy (35-35-50)

21. Dave Parker (27-27-32)
22. Ken Singleton (33-37-NR)
23. Dale Murphy (16-16-17)
24. Vic Willis (31-33-48)
25. Hack Wilson (36-29-26)


26. Dan Quisenberry (19-15-20)
27. Thurman Munson (10-10-4, PHoM 2002)
28. Eddie Cicotte (26-25-27)
29. Don Mattingly (6-7-3, PHoM 2001)
30. Frank Howard (47-36-21, PHoM 1987)
(30a. Wes Ferrell [29a-27a-40b])
(30b. Roger Bresnahan [20-31-47])

31. Bill Monroe (32-34-NR)
32. Reggie Smith (37-43-35, PHoM 1988)
(32a. Joe Sewell [50b-HM-38a])
(32b. Ken Boyer [30a-21a-25a])
33. Pie Traynor (47-32-19)
34. Sal Bando (29-30-22)
35. John McGraw (40-50-NR)
36. Chuck Klein (22-23-22)
(36a. Lou Whitaker [38a-31a-29a])
(36b. Quincy Trouppe [42a-42a-37a])
37. Wally Berger (50-HM-33)
38. Jim Rice (25-23-18)
39. Tony Perez (30-28-21)
40. Alejandro Oms (42-40-38)
(40a. Dewey Evans [50a-HM-HM])

41. Dave Bancroft (NR-NR-NR)
42. Fred Dunlap (45-45-HM)
43. Orlando Cepeda (41-39-30, PHoM 1987)
44. Bruce Sutter (39-41-40)
45. Bucky Walters (38-36-HM)
46. Bob Johnson (46-46-NR)
(46a. Jim Bunning [41a-41a-31a])
47. Hilton Smith (43-42-NR)
48. Rabbit Maranville (HM-NR-NR)
49. Luis Tiant (48-48-44)
50. Burleigh Grimes (49-49-HM)

Honorable Mention

Lefty Gomez (HM-HM-HM)
Luke Easter (HM-HM-HM)
Bobby Estalella (HM-HM-HM)
Tony Oliva (HM-HM-31)
Bobby Avila (HM-HM-NR)
Lee Smith (HM-HM-new)
Graig Nettles (HM-NR-NR)
(Willie Randolph [HM-NR-NR])
Lou Brock (NR-NR-NR)
Luis Aparicio (NR-NR-NR)
Dave Concepcion (NR-NR-NR)
(Biz Mackey [NR-NR-NR)]
   16. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 24, 2007 at 05:05 PM (#2540153)
there's no point in gloating

No gloat, just forgot to remove that from my ballot.
   17. andrew siegel Posted: September 24, 2007 at 06:33 PM (#2540266)
(1) Boggs (new)--I like him better than the historical consensus and have him around number 50 alltime.

(2) Bridges (4th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers (so why so much love for Whitaker?). Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. I have him with 8 truly excellent seasons--no pitcher outside the HoM has more. Every time I stumble upon a new metric, he leads a dozen or so HOM pitchers. Your mileage may vary on how to treat different kinds of pitchers, but I don't see how anyone can have him outside the top 30 or 35.

(3) Oms (3rd)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up. Better than Dawson with both the glove and the bat.

(4) Reggie Smith (5th)--Very similar on all dimensions to Cash and Wynn; similar offensively to Roush and Johnson. A bit more consistent than Wynn. More career value than Dale Murphy in a similar opportunity context. Similar career value to Dawson in a smaller opportunity context. Add that all-up and he is an underrated gem.

(5) Leach (6th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. A lot like Darrell Evans, only with contemporary reports that match his stellar defensive numbers.

(6) Ben Taylor (7th)--I missed the boat on him. I had him comped to Konetchy and, therefore, outside the top 50. But (1) I had Konetchy too low and (2) his offense was one rung better than Ed's. As a result, he is close to Hernandez and pretty much a dead ringer for Cash.

(7) Norm Cash (8th)--Dropped a few spots on further qualms about league quality, but still deserves induction. Put up lots of quality and quantity; quality hidden by WS b/c/ he split his games among more seasons.

(8) Bob Johnson (9th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no major knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position. His era and position are already well-represented and he doesn't have a great peak, but in the imperfect world we now find ourselves iin those are small flaws.

(9) Urban Shocker (10th)--Joe makes his case well. He didn't pitch a ton of innings or a ton of years but--when you combine durability and quality and adjust for defense--he was one of the best handful of pitchers in the game for a decade. A lot like Tommy Bridges or Dave Stieb or Billy Pierce.

(10) Elliot (11th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer. Nettles, Bell, Bando, and Cey are also similar, but the glut of 3B in the 1970's suggests that something was different then than when Elliot (and perhaps Boyer) were playing.

(11) Cravath (12th)--I give full minor league credit and see him as the best hitter not in HoM. The knock is that the other candidates for that title (folks like Tiernan, Browning, Fournier, and Frank Howard) are much further down ballot.

(12) Dale Murphy (13th)--His case rests on six seasons. We have elected a bunch of guys who reached a similar plateau for seven years (e.g., Wynn) and rejected a number who were there for only four or five (e.g., Parker). Six seasons is a very close call.

(13) Frank Chance (14th)--A great offensive player with a well-rounded game and the centerpiece of great teams. Just fits the HoM better than a lot of the other peripheral candidates.

(14) Andre Dawson (nr/16th)-- Surprisingly strong peak/prime and a lot of career value even when you eliminate the drek seasons. Basically, did the minimum necessary to supplement a strong five year peak.

(15) Dave Bancroft (nr/18th)--Finally makes my ballot after years in the also-ran category. I think he was the most well-rounded of the average-hitting, great-defense SS contingent (Rizzutto, Concepcion, Lundy, Etc.)

When you adjust Browning for league quality, you get a guy with a mid 140's OPS+ and roughly 9-plus years of playing time with limited defensive value. I have him somewhere between 45 and 60th.

Kirby is out of the top 60 without strike and DH adjustments; with those he is in the 30's, just behind Wally Berger.

Bucky Walters is in the 50's; he has a great peak but a lot of that is his defense. When you adjust for defense, I prefer Dizzy Dean and Dizzy Trout.

Dick Redding's numbers don't match his reputation. He's somewhere around 80th.

Saberhagen just misses--his quanity and quality combo are on teh border of the ballot, but he loses a half dozen spots to the problems caused by his inconsistency. Right now he is number 20 on my list.
   18. Mark Donelson Posted: September 24, 2007 at 06:36 PM (#2540268)
I’m a peak voter, though an amazing prime or really strong career will overwhelm my peak preferences in my (revamped) system. I lean on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

Only major shakeup this time involves some pitching candidates I missed on my initial run-through (back when I was catching up before my first vote): Nap Rucker and Noodles Hahn. If I went only by PRAA, both Rucker and Hahn would probably be on my ballot; as it is, the other measures drag them down. Still, both have a place in my top 50, and I’ll continue examining Hahn in particular; if he moves up a notch, he might have pHOM possibilities. I also realized I had forgotten to penalize Dizzy Trout’s war years enough in a recent reassessment of him, so he drops a bit.

pHOM: Boggs, Saberhagen, Stieb

2005 ballot:

1. Wade Boggs (pHOM 2005). A fairly obvious #1; among all eligible MLB 3Bs historically, he trails only Schmidt, Mathews, Baker, and Brett in my system. If you swap out the old 3Bs for old 2Bs, you replace Baker with Lajoie and Collins, but still… Sure, he benefited greatly from Fenway...but, as with Cravath, I don't give demerits for taking advantage of the home park.

2. Bret Saberhagen (pHOM 2005). A greater peak than I’d realized, and it shows up by multiple measures—not just PRAA. That, plus a better prime than Dean’s (that is, he has one), gives him the #2 spot. The choice between him and Stieb, if I were forced to make one, would be between dominance and consistency, and I still prefer nonfluke dominance in such cases. (Hey, they’re both in my pHOM now anyway.)

3. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak, but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough (and high enough for that brief period) for me.

4. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste. As Sunny always points out, great peak on both offense and defense.

5. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak. I still prefer him slightly to Bresnahan, though I admit there’s a certain amount of “what if?” going on there.

6. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but then again, he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. And his peak was very strong. I still prefer him to both Hahn and Rucker.

7. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. Despite all the back-and-forth recently, I’m still convinced that he dominated his weak leagues by such a huge margin that he clearly belongs, and I don’t think his great non-AA season was a fluke.

8. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Yes, I know he dominated partially because of his stadium, but I can’t see why I should penalize him for that. With minor-league credit—which I think he deserves—he’s a pretty easy choice.

9. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). He wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years to get my vote.

10. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at 3B, are enough for me.

11. Ken Singleton (pHOM 1997). Another of the “I had no idea he was this good at the time” gang—I think he was the player most felt Rice was back then. In my system, judged on offense alone, he matches up well with Clemente and is better than Stargell.

12. John McGraw (pHOM 1996). Another tiny peak, but it seems good enough to outstrip the recent 3B glut to me (and at this position, it’s not like the years outside the peak are useless).

13. Johnny Pesky (pHOM 1997). With war credit for both, I prefer his peak/prime to Rizzuto’s, and I prefer them both by a great margin over the other backlog SS candidates.

14. Larry Doyle (pHOM 1995). The weakness of the era is duly noted—if not for that, I’d have him a lot higher. And yes, I know he’s more like a modern 3B than a 2B. But his five-year peak compares favorably with those guys’, too.

15. Alejandro Oms (pHOM 1996). My first time voting for him, I think. His MLEs makes him appear peakless, but of course that may partially be the “smoothing” effect of the MLEs themselves. And either way, his prime is so good that he seems worthy. As usual with NeL candidates, there’s a lot of fog here, but Oms as a player at this level—a slightly less good version of Minnie Minoso, say—is very plausible.
   19. Mark Donelson Posted: September 24, 2007 at 06:38 PM (#2540271)
16-20: Cicotte (1972), Rizzuto (2004), Redding (1975), [Stieb (2005)], Leach, Duffy (1930)
21-25: [Whitaker], Trout (1997), F. Howard, [Ashburn], Walters (1968), Nettles, G. Burns
26-30: Clarkson, [Dw. Evans], McCormick, Bando, Puckett, Hahn
31-35: Parker, [Boyer], H. Smith, Gomez (1987), Dawson, Hiller
36-40: Dunlap, Viola, D. Murphy, Cepeda, Berger
41-45: Avila, L. Smith, [Doerr], Elliott, Mattingly, Shocker
46-50: Rucker, Sutter, P. Guerrero, Munson, Stephens

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Puckett. Not enough peak/prime to get in as an outfielder—even a CF—unless you play the what-if-no-eye-injury game, and if I’m not doing that for Joss or Mattingly, I’m not doing it for Puckett. The defense and postseason heroics elevate him past Murphy, but not that far. He’s at #29.

•Johnson. Right in the heart of the Hall of Very Good, and certainly underrated historically, but not close to my ballot—nowhere near enough peak or prime.

•Dawson. An awful lot like a bunch of other borderline outfielders from this era, and I don’t seem much reason to elevate him above the likes of Parker and Murphy. He’s at #34.

•Redding. I like him, and he’s in my pHOM, but there are still a bunch of other lost-cause pitchers I like better. Can’t quite seem to get back on my ballot; he’s at #18.

•Walters. He’s also in my pHOM, but got demoted some years back for not being demonstrably better than other not-yet-pHOMed guys like Stieb. He’s not far back, though, at #23.

• Strawberry. Some great years, and an amazing player at his best, but there's just not enough here. Better than Joe Carter, though.

•Tony Phillips. A valuable role player and occasionally more than that. Not even HoVG, really. Better than Steve Sax, though.

• Langston. Overall value (given my peak/prime skew) seems similar to Dennis Martinez’, which doesn’t put him particularly close. I remember him as being a reasonably feared opponent in his prime, though.

•Chili Davis, McGee, Gaetti: Not close either.
   20. karlmagnus Posted: September 24, 2007 at 07:41 PM (#2540352)
Boggs in but not enthusiastic (that horse-ride in Yankee Stadium did it for me, I fear.) So, he walked a lot – overrated skill. Strawberry bottom of consideration set – another few years and he’d have made it. Davis not good enough as an OF/DH, McGee nowhere near good enough as an OF. Gaetti not good enough even as 3B, nor Phillips at his mixture. Saberhagen the anti-Boggs; very appealing player of superb quality, but for not quite long enough. Just below Mays, I think – another 500IP would put him close to top, maybe just below Joss. Langston just off the bottom; a lesser Morris. Lots of WS being rung up by mediocrities in the modern era, particularly hitters.

1. (N/A) Wade Boggs 3010 hits at 130, but he was a 3B so that’s about 138 equivalent in an OF. Boring player. TB+BB/PA.509, TB+BB/Outs .834.

2. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3-2-2-3-5-2-2-1-2-1) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20. Electorate needs to take him more seriously.

3. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7-5-5-7-6-10-9-9-11-12-8-9-7-7-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA. On further reflection, 162 is 162, 13th highest OPS+ in history, 10th highest of eligible players; restored to his original position close to Cicotte.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4-3-3-4-6-3-3-2-3-3) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5-4-4-5-7-4-4-3-4-4) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

6. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6-5-5-6-8-5-5-4-5-5) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

7. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8-7-7-9-10-6-7-5-8-7) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

8. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7-7-9-8-7-6-6-8-9-9-10-8-10-8) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

9. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13-11-10-10-12-13-10-11-10-11-9) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

10. (N/A-12-11-11-13-14-11-12-11-12-10) Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat.

11. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-13-14-13-14-11) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far. 3021 innings at 119, 207-126 and 83 OPS+ Others should look at him more closely.
   21. karlmagnus Posted: September 24, 2007 at 07:42 PM (#2540353)
12. Bret Saberhagen. Short career, not enough wins, but what a quality! 167-117, 2563IP@126ERA+ 126 ERA+ is equal 52nd all-time; Bret’s up there.

13. (N/A-13) Elmer Smith Deduct 10% from Elmer's Western League 1890 and 1891 batting and slugging percentages we get 301/461 and 284/431 respectively. Comparing against the PL of 1890 gives an OPS+ of about 130, against the NL of 1891 gives an OPS+ of about 139. That gives him 14 years of full-time play; adjust those to 130 game seasons (which I did for 19th century players gives him about 2140 hits at an OPS+ of 128-129 plus a pitching record of about 1400IP at an ERA+ of 113 and a W/L of about 96-72. Elmer baby, you're on my ballot, albeit at the bottom of it. Only 97 years late.

14. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14) Mickey Welch. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP. Will now be on and off ballot.

15. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless. Had fallen too far; put him just above Staub.


16. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A-14-15-14-15-15) Hugh Duffy. We don’t have enough Beaneaters! However he’s not quite as good as Elmer Smith. Will be back soon.

17. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-13-12-14-15-12-13-12-13-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars, but he was significantly below Elmer Smith, either as hitter or pitcher.

18. (N/A-15-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long.

19. (N/A-12-N/A) Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best.

20. Andre Dawson. Longer career than Lynn but not as good. 2774 hits @119. TB+BB/PA .499 TB+BB/Outs .705

21. Reggie Smith
22. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15-N/A) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down.

23. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis Had slipped too far.

24. (N/A) Lee Smith 71-92 +478 saves. 1289IP @132. I find these relievers difficult to rank because their usage changes; with the exception of Wilhelm I don’t see any of them as clearly IN. (Rivera very short career in IP terms so far, and ERA+ declining as we speak.) Still, Lee Smith was better than Fingers and I think Gossage, though that one’s close.

25. Gavvy Cravath 1134 hits@150. Add 50% to career and deduct 5 points for more years in early career makes him 1699 hits @145, still a very short career, but comparable to Hack. TB+BB/PA .527, TB+BB/Outs .835.

26. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-14-N/A) Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore.

27. Rick Reuschel. 214-191, 3548IP@114. Tough to put him far from Tiant, who had a better W/L, but I now realized I was overvaluing Tiant a bit because of Red Sox affiliation.

28. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

29. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

30. Brian Downing. 2099 hits at 122 plus he caught about 1/3 of his games. TB+BB/PA.487 TB+BB/Outs.741

31. Tony Perez. Close to Staub but below him. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
32. Bill Madlock.
33. Toby Harrah
34. Ben Taylor.
35. Jim Kaat
36. Orlando Cepeda
37. Norm Cash
38. Jim Rice
39. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
40. Cesar Cedeno
41. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
42. Lou Brock
43. Mickey Vernon
44. Thurmon Munson
45. Sal Maglie.
46. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
47. (N/A) Heinie Manush
48. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
49. Bob Elliott
50. (N/A) Dick Lundy
51. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
52. Jack Clark. As good as Reggie Smith but not for as long. 1826 hits@137OPS+, TB+BB .529, TB+BB/Outs .845
53. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
54. Dennis Martinez 3999IP@106, 245-193. A lesser Kaat.
55. Jimmy Key 2591IP@122. 186-117. 400IP more and he’d be Dave Stieb, but Stieb was just off the main ballot – too short a career. You have to be Pedro or Saberhagen if you’re career is this short.
56. Dave Parker.
57. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
58. Gene Tenace
59. Kiki Cuyler
60. Deacon McGuire
61. Jerry Koosman.
62. Boog Powell
63. Ken Singleton.
64. Bucky Walters 198-160, 3104IP at 115 certainly doesn’t make the ballot, but should be on the consideration set, so here he is. Less than Tiant or Reuschel..
65. Sal Bando.
66. Jim Fregosi.
67. Jack Quinn
68. Tony Mullane
69. Ron Cey
70. Pie Traynor
71. Jim McCormick
72. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
73. Joe Judge
74. Spotswood Poles.
75. Buddy Bell.
76. Larry Doyle
77. Kirby Puckett 2304 hits @124. TB+BB/PA .498 TB+BB/Outs .738 Overrated badly by the HOF; 5 adjusted OPS+ points short of Cepeda, who’s below the ballot.
78. Curt Simmons
79. Waite Hoyt.
80. Harry Hooper.
81. Vada Pinson
82. Gil Hodges
83. Jules Thomas.
84. Rico Carty.
85. Wilbur Cooper
86. Bruce Petway.
87. Jack Clements
88. Frank Tanana
89. Graig Nettles.
90. Don Mattingley.
91. Bill Monroe
92. Herb Pennock
93. Chief Bender
94. Ed Konetchy
95. Al Oliver
96. Darryl Strawberry. Too short a career, but quality would have been HOMable. 1401 hits @138 TB+BB/PA.562 TB+BB/Outs.839
97. Jesse Tannehill
98. Bobby Veach
99. Chet Lemon.
100. Lave Cross
101. Tommy Leach.
102. Tom York
   22. Sean Gilman Posted: September 24, 2007 at 08:48 PM (#2540496)

1. Wade Boggs (-)--He’s good.

2. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

3. Tommy Leach (3)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

4. John McGraw (4)--He’s got the best non-Browning peak of the backlog, but still a shortage of career value. (1997)

5. Dale Murphy (5)--A great prime with a decent career value despite the decline phase. Bumped up this year as he’s got the best peak of the outfield glut, and the career value difference is minimal. (2000)

6. Andre Dawson (6)--Peak’s not quite as good as the backloggers ahead of him, but it was very good and he’s got more career value as the outfielders below. (2002)

7. Hugh Duffy (8)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

8. George Van Haltren (9)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

9. Alejandro Oms (10)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

10. Bobby Bonds (11)--Fine all-around outfielder, with a good mix of peak and career, like many other outfielders in this section of the ballot. (1995)

11. Ken Singleton (12)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

12. Larry Doyle (13)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to Win Shares. Dropped him last year, but he’s still better than any of the off-ballot second or third basemen. (1945)

(Nellie Fox)
(Quincey Trouppe)

13. Bret Saberhagen (-)--Maybe should be ranked higher, but he looks like the Tiant of the 80s/90s to me. That’s good enough for the PHOM, but not a no-brainer.

14. Luis Tiant (14)--A fine all-around pitching candidate, good career value, solid peak, underrated.

15. Graig Nettles (15)--A solid all-around thirdbaseman. Good defense, good peak, good career.

(Willie Randolph)
(Rollie Fingers)
16. Dave Parker (16)
17. Tony Lazzeri (68)
18. Ron Cey (31)
19. Sal Bando (17)
20. Wally Berger (18)
21. Carl Mays (19)
22. Mike Tiernan (20)
23. Cesar Cedeno (21)
24. George Foster (22)
25. Bobby Veach (74)
26. Dick Redding (23)
27. Dave Concepcion (24)
28. Rick Reuschel (35)
29. Ed Williamson (25)
(Dobie Moore)
(Jake Beckley)
30. Tony Perez (26)
31. Phil Rizzuto (60)
32. Bob Elliot (78)
33. Rusty Staub (27)
(Roger Bresnahan)
34. Lee Smith (28)
35. Vada Pinson (29)
36. Dan Quisenberry (30)
37. Hack Wilson (86)
38. Gavy Cravath (82)
39. Kirby Puckett (32)
40. Norm Cash (33)
41. Bruce Sutter (35)
42. Reggie Smith (58)
43. Don Mattingly (36)
44. Frank Howard (37)
45. Brett Butler (39)
46. Bobby Murcer (40)
47. Orlando Cepeda (41)
(Red Faber)
48. Buddy Bell (42)
49. Bucky Walters (43)
50. Vern Stephens (44)

Lots of shuffling amongst my backlog this year. Boggs, Fox and Trouppe make the PHOM.
   23. rawagman Posted: September 25, 2007 at 01:17 AM (#2540866)
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time with a strong preference for players who had good in-season durability. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. I think it also may be time to go a little more into my baseball philosophy, which may help in clarifying my rankings. I don't believe in the single stat theory of baseball, meaning I don't use WS or WARP in my rankings. Essentially, I follow this as I think a large percentage of what contributes to baseball is not counted. Well, no one has ever counted them as statistics as far as I've ever heard. This includes things like manager's prerogative, and actions that would require a historical pbp analysis currently unavailable. I search for what I consider "total ballplayers", guys who can do it all. I believe in positional representation and abhor the thought process that says that relievers were all failed starters and 2B are all failed SS, etc... A team cannot win without a 2B, nor without someone in LF. When I look at a player's career, I try to ask myself how I would feel about him as his manager - would his presence require special tactics to protect him, or is he completely reliable. I hope it can be seen by my rankings that the "reliable" players generally rise above the ones with clear holes in their games. There are always exceptions, but this is what I have. The stats I look at to get here tend to be traditional and rate, both offensive and defensive. Contemporary opinion also helps.

Wade Boggs is the highlight of the new candidates. And things being as they are, he is also the highlight of my 2005 ballot, taking the top spot and one of three electees to my PHOM. Joining him in my own very hallowed ranks are two backloggers who I have finally come around enough on to move up an in - Bus Clarkson and Alejandro Oms (After a comparison including Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith, Tony Oliva and Al Oliver). Saberhagen debuts just off ballot. Strawberry and Langston make the consideration set, but well down it (Straw near 100, Langston closer to 200).

1)Wade Boggs - One of the best hitters of the last 50 years. Makes me think of Ty Cobb without the super intensity. (PHOM)
2)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. The epitomy of reliability. (PHOM)
3)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
4)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. A summary of a reevaluation of some of our backlog pitchers in my high backlog (Bridges, Gomez, Redding, Walters) Of those four, the white guys were all regulars for 10-11 seasons. Bucky and Lefty both had immense peaks, but I think that Lefty's non-peak years hold up better than Bucky's. Also, Lefty does not need any war discount. Dick Redding seems more similar to Walters in that his non-peak was not so impressive. His peak was still enough to leave in him solid backlog country. (I even put him in my PHOM back when I joined the project.) Tommy Bridges wins out. He had much greater consistency. He is to pitchers what Bob Johnson was to hitters, but more of a winner. As we see the upcoming dearth of good pitching candidates, I urge everyone to give Tommy Bridges a closer look.(PHOM)
5)Kirby Puckett - I have it mentioned that some HOM voters consider Puckett to be a mistake of the BBWAA. I see where that sentiment may be emanating from, but I do beleive that his election was earned A wonderful ballplayer. (PHOM)
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
7)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
8)Dale Murphy - A player that my system loves. At his best he dominated. That refers to the years between 1979-1988. That's a 10 year prime with a very high peak. Also demonstrated very good fielding ability. Could easily move up my ballot. (PHOM)
9)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). And probably Pete Browning, as well. Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
10)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable. (PHOM)
11)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today. (PHOM)
12)Orlando Cepeda- Going with my numbers. (PHOM)
13)Bus Clarkson - A new defensive readjustment moves to the cusp. (PHOM)
14)Tony Oliva - Career not as short as I thought. Had solid durability for the seasons he was around for. A world class hitter. (PHOM)
15)Alejandro Oms - This is a serious jump for him in my rankings (nearly 60 places). I was counting him as a RF only. The hybrid time gets him here, just above Reggie Smith. This could change. Right now I have provisionally given him a career as a 50% CF, which may be a little low. This week's discussion forces me to reevaluate him once more and he makes my ballot for the first time as well as my PHOM. (PHOM)
   24. rawagman Posted: September 25, 2007 at 01:21 AM (#2540871)
16)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves back up a bit as the clouds pass and I see much to compare between R. Smith and J. Wynn. Rechecked the head to heaad between Smith and Jack Clark and I must admit that Smith is just a smidge better. Feasibly better than Al Oliver as well. One reader pointed out how his games per season compared with Tony Oliva's. I prefer looking at PA's. Oliva's prime consisted of 11 seasons. (64-71 +73-75). In that time, he averaged 609 PA/season. Reggie Smith's prime was 67-78. In that time he averaged 579 PA/season. His career OPS+ may have been brought up by part time play. Valuable, but I am not concerned with it. All that said and done, he will probably claim one of the final spots of my PHOM in these last few elections.
((16a)Dwight Evans))
17)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarities between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow (Not fully hollow, just a bit). Very convincing peak and a glove that scores quite well. Career length is nice as well.
18)Bret Saberhagen - Just a little bit more valuable, on the whole, than Dizzy Dean - slightly lower peak, but a longer prime.
19)Andre Dawson - Like Trammell, his lack of durability really hurts him for me. At this time, I prefer the resumes of Veach and Murphy among the OF backlog.
20)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
21)Jack Clark - Marvelous hitter who had his uses in the field as well.
((21a)Darrell Evans))
22)Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found.
23)Wally Berger - super-underrated
24)Don Mattingly - In the interest of my belief in a big hall for Cooperstown, I suppport Mattingly's induction. That said, for this project, he looks to be just the wrong side of the door.
25)Dan Quisenberry - I suppose I've decided that I value peak in a reliever over career totals. Mind you, if the guy has both...well, we'll see what happens with Goose in a few years.
26)Lee Smith - He didn't have the stellar peak of the two closers around him, but his prime outlasted them both. And his peak is really not that far below Sutter's, at least.
27)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.
28)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
((28a)Jimmy Wynn))
29)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
30)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily correct to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
31)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
32)Mickey Welch
((32a)Jim Bunning))
((32b)Billy Pierce))

33)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled reliever system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
34)Lance Parrish - SOlid all round catcher. Proud member of the HoVG. Not quite the HOM though.
35)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
36)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((36a)Joe Gordon))
((36b)Dobie Moore))

37)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((37a)Cupid Childs))
38)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
((38a)Rollie Fingers))
39)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
40)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
41)Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((41a)Don Sutton))
42)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
43)Tony Perez - I wasn't giving him the extra glove credit he earned through 5 seasons as the Reds' 3B. Still, no peak. As far as 1B go, I have Cepeda up higher because of his very nice peak and his not too short career as a regular. Ben Taylor suffers from a lack of documented stats. The stats there show that he could flat out mash the ball by dead-ball standards. Contemporaries say his glove was the best they had ever seen at 1B. Very apt, in this year of the Hernandez discussion. How much as a scoop worth? I think it's worth alot. I maintain that while a below average defensive 1B can cause little harm, an above average glove at 1B will provide a hefty bonus to the team lucky enough to employ one.
44)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace. And better than Bresnahan given credit.
45)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
46)Phil Rizzuto
47)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
((47a)Jake Beckley))
48)Jimmy Ryan
49)Fred Lynn - Very similar to Duffy and Roush. Loses a lot of ground due to in-season durability concerns for an otherwise very strong candidate. Should be appealing to Browning/Chance/McGraw supporters who overlook that sort of thing.
((49a)Charlie Keller)))
50)Cy Williams
51)Brett Butler - Some are calling him an equivalent to Kirby. I'm not seeing it. At Kirby's best, he was the best. At Butler's best, he was very good. My system will always take the guy who was the best for a stretch.
52)Amos Otis - The end of the centrefield run.
53)Dolf Camilli
54)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
((54a)Roger Bresnahan))
55)Pete Browning - A superior masher, but a horrible person to have on your team. No defensive value whatsoever and very very poor durability. Worse than most contemporary catchers.
56)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
57)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
58)George Kell
59)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
60)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
61)Graig Nettles - Among 3B, I figure he sits nicely here between Elliott and Bando. The better question to ask is if I am underrating 3B in general. I'll have to look into it a bit more later. Nettles is the best defensive 3B on my ballot. I think he was better than Boyer as well.
62)Sal Bando
63)Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B.
64)Pie Traynor
65)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
66)Johnny Evers
67)Elston Howard
68)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
69)Bill Mazeroski
70)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
71)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
72)Vic Willis - A reexamination of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
73)Thurmon Munson - see below.
74)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
75)Johnny Pesky
76)Hippo Vaughn
77)Tom Henke - Not a long career, but the Terminator was one of the best closers in the game at his peak.
78)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
79)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
80)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
81)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
82)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
83)Rocky Colavito
84)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
85)Denny Lyons
86)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
87)George Van Haltren - see the comment on Wynn. Van Haltren is the big loser on the CF sweepstakes due to his poor fielding by my own accounts.
88)Rabbit Maranville
   25. Jim Sp Posted: September 25, 2007 at 01:57 AM (#2540929)
If you like Dean at #2 I'm surprised you don't have Saberhagen anywhere in sight.
   26. sunnyday2 Posted: September 25, 2007 at 02:12 AM (#2540950)
To be honest, I'm planning on re-doing my pitchers but didn't get to it, so I haven't considered (or rejected) Sabes yet. Boy will I be surprised if he comes up one vote short. Actually I was expecting a TY from the Irish (Duffy supporters). I guess I'm kidding myself, I only have him 13th....
   27. rawagman Posted: September 25, 2007 at 02:38 AM (#2541011)
sunnyday - I am glad to see a new Duffy supporter in our midst. Will it be enough?
   28. OCF Posted: September 25, 2007 at 06:33 AM (#2541216)
2005 Ballot.

1. Wade Boggs (new) His offensive stats leave no doubt about his placement, even if he was a bad baserunner. Bill James wrote that he was the first player that he (James) realized was just batsh!t crazy. To which one might add: what took B.J. so long - and Boggs is hardly unique.
2. Larry Doyle (3, 3, 4, 3, 2) The Chipper Jones of his time? Terrific offense with bad defensive stats but are the defensive stats right?
3. George Van Haltren (5, 5, 5, 4, 3) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career. Has now been on my ballot for nearly 100 years. Sam Thompson has what could have been his spot in the HoM.
4. Tommy Bridges (6, 6, 6, 5, 4) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
5. Bucky Walters (7, 7, 7, 6, 5) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
6. Orlando Cepeda (8, 8, 8, 7, 6) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
7. Norm Cash (9, 9, 9, 8, 7) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
8. Sal Bando (12, 12, 10, 9, 8) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
9. Bob Elliott (13, 13, 11, 10, 9) Roughly the value of Al Oliver or Brian Downing as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
10. Lou Brock (11, 11, 12, 11, 10) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
11. Tony Perez (15, 14, 13, 12, 11) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
12. Rusty Staub (17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 13) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time.
13. Luis Tiant (17, 16, 15, 14) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value.
14. Reggie Smith (18, 17, 16, 15, 14) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
15. Ken Singleton (19, 18, 17, 16, 16) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter.
16. Tommy John (20, 19, 18, 17, 17) RA+ Pythpat record of 281-244 with no big years. Compare to Tiant: the difference of 57-80 is pretty much a wash, and Tiant had some big years.
17. Bret Saberhagen (new) The biggest challenge of the ballot. How to place an 80's-90's pitcher who excels in value per inning but in relatively few innings versus 60's-70's pitchers (Tiant and John) who have innings-eating bulk but less value per inning. It was easier to to rack up that value per inning (but in fewer innings) in the 90's, during the tail end of Saberhagen's career; it was easier to rack up bulk innings in the 70's, with Tiant and John. Both took what the times gave them. For now, I'm keeping Tiant and John ahead.
18. Darrell Porter (21, 20, 19, 18, 18) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
19. Jack Clark (22, 21, 20, 19, 19) A hitter to be afraid of.
20. Graig Nettles (23, 22, 21, 20, 20) Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott.
21. Ron Cey (24, 23, 22, 21, 21) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
22. Frank Howard (25, 24, 23, 22, 22) A great hitter; a born DH.
23. Gene Tenace (26, 25, 24, 23, 23) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Schang)
24. Dick Redding (27, 26, 25, 24, 24)
25. Luis Aparicio (28, 27, 26, 25, 25) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
26. Bobby Bonds (29, 28, 27, 26, 26)
27. Hugh Duffy (30, 29, 28, 27, 27) OK, but I'd rather have Van Haltren.
28. Kirby Puckett (-, 30, 29, 28, 28) Racking my brain for good reasons to put him ahead of Lynn, Butler or Cedeno - I suppose he has a consistency and in-season durability advantage.
29. Frank Chance (---, 29, 29) An offensive force, when he played.
30. Johnny Evers (--, 30, 30, 30) I abandoned his case long ago, but he keeps gnawing at me.

Pete Browning: I did vote for him from 1904 through 1916. We had a lot fewer viable candidates then.

Bob Johnson: probably ranks about 35th to 45th. I'm more inclined to go for 1960's-1970's corner outfielders.

Andre Dawson: Got Melky? said this: "He made too many outs. I can't get around this fact no matter how hard I try." Basically, that's where I stand, too.

Chili Davis: A fine, late-blooming hitter. Not much defensive value. Closely comparable in my system to Al Oliver and Brian Downing - of those three, Oliver goes ahead because of defense.

Tony Phillips: Offensive value in my system comparable to Willie Randolph. Of course, that's not the only story, and trying to classify Phillips as a second baseman is a stretch. Through the age of 30, a middle infielder with RCAA negative as often as positive. After the age of 30, a utility player/leadoff hitter who did a passable imitation of Rickey Henderson (albeit without the SB).

Gary Gaetti: If Tim Wallach was a poor man's Brooks Robinson, what does that make Gaetti? Long career and excellent defense insufficient to compensate for all the outs he made.

Mark Langston: RA+ PythPat equivalent record of 178-151 with top seasons of 18-10, 17-10, and 17-10.

Willie McGee: Heisting him from the Yankees was one of Whitey's good moves. A key player on three pennant-winning teams. Should ship his MVP trophy to Doc Gooden, but a valuable player nonetheless. His MVP season is a dead ringer for Ichiro's MVP season.
   29. Qufini Posted: September 26, 2007 at 01:03 AM (#2542555)
In between homes at the moment, so these are going to be abbreviated comments. Personal Hall of Merit is Boggs and the Dual Daves Stieb and Concepcion.

1. Wade Boggs, 3B. Would have done even better in my old ink-based system. Comes out okay in the new system anyway.

2. Cannonball Dick Redding, P. I've been voting him near the top of my ballot ever since I joined this project in the early '70s. And yes, the new Hall of Fame numbers were in by then.

3. Alejandro Oms, CF. I came late to the Oms bandwagon, but I'd glad to see that I wasn't the last one to climb aboard. Come on, fellow voters, here's a great long prime with both offensive and defensive value.

4. Andre Dawson, CF/RF. Started out a bit conservatively on Dawson but now I'm ready to move him a couple of places.

5. Dave Concepcion, SS. My ballot was getting a little light on glove men, so Concepcion moves up a couple of places. Concepcion may tower over the weak competition of his era, but he also stands up pretty well when compared to non-contemporaries like Bancroft and Rizzuto.

6. Tommy Bridges, P. Sure, the '30s are overrepresented but I prefer Bridges' sustained prime to Walters' peak and Tiant's inconsistency.

7. Bob Johnson, RF. Another '30s stalwart with a long sustained prime.

8. Don Newcombe, P. His case hinges more on war credit than Negro League credit.

9. Hugh Duffy, CF. Harder to put up big numbers in the one-league '90s than in the two-league '80s and '00s. Still, Duffy has good numbers, especially from 1890 to '98.

10. Bret Saberhagen, P. Not quite as good as Stieb (who would be third or fourth on this ballot if he was still eligible) but one of the best pitchers of his era and one of the best pitchers available.

11. Dick Lundy, SS. Another glove man who moves up a couple of spots.

12. Lou Brock, RF. With the glove men sliding up, somebody else had to slide down.

13. Orlando Cepeda, 1B. The best of the first basemen, though neither Taylor nor Cash are that far behind.

14. Burleigh Grimes, P. Flipped him with Willis. Both of these pitchers hang around the bottom of my ballot with very different resumes.

15. Pie Traynor, 3B. Back on the ballot after an absence of about six elections.

just off the ballot: 16. Bill Monroe, 2B; 17. Vic Willis, P; 18. Ben Taylor, 1B.

necessary disclosures:
Pete Browning: the Alfonso Soriano of his day, I prefer the '90s group
Kirby Puckett: closer than Browning, top five at his position behind Oms, Dawson, Duffy and Van Haltren
Bucky Walters: not enough outside of his peak to appeal to this prime/career voter

new eligibles:
Boggs and Sabes are on the ballot. Strawberry is the closest of the rest, though he just doesn't have enough career value for a corner outfielder.
   30. Rick A. Posted: September 26, 2007 at 01:53 AM (#2542760)
I tend to lean towards peak/prime, although a pure career candidate can sneak through at an important defensive position. I'm an anti-timeline, pennant-is-a-pennant voter. I give credit for wars, holdouts, strikes, blacklisting and players being in the minors when they're clearly MLB caliber, as well as NEL credit. I'm solidly in the WS camp, although I'll also look at OPS+, ERA+, IP, PA and ranking among contemporaries at their position. I do think that WS does miss on occasion, and I give a subjective bump(or demerit) to candidates who I think WS is off on.

Wade Boggs
Eppa Rixey
Luke Easter

2005 Ballot
1. Wade Boggs Clear #1
2. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
4. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
5. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
6. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
7. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
8. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
9. Ed Williamson – I’ll take him over Boyer. Elected PHOM in 1958
10. Ken Singleton – Jumps onto ballot after I adjust for the DH. Elected PHOM in 1997.
11. Dizzy Dean – Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
12. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985
13. Gavvy Cravath – Damn good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1988.
14. Bruce Sutter – Very close to Fingers. I like his peak. Elected PHOM in 1994
15. Thurman Munson – Elected PHOM in 1997.

Required Disclosures
Bob Johnson I'd like more peak from a corner outfielder
Andre Dawson Behind Lynn, Parker, Tiernan, JRice, Puckett, Murphy, Clark, etc.
Kirby Puckett Mid 30's. Murphy is slightly better.

New Candidates
Bret Saberhagen 1-2 more peak years or 3-4 more prime years would've made a big difference.
Tony Phillips Like the versatility, but not enough peak. Even with Lazzeri and Avila.
Darryl Strawberry Oh, what could have been....

Off the ballot
16-20 Newcombe,Leach,(Rixey),Easter,Bond
21-25 Rosen,WCooper,Mays,(BRobinson),(Faber)
26-30 (Ashburn),Rizzuto,Monroe,(DSutton),(Medwick)
31-35 FJones,Murphy,Parrish,Scales,Nettles
36-40 (Gordon),Puckett,Mattingly,Elliott,Johnson
41-45 Perez,(Terry),Traynor,LSmith,Matlock
46-50 (Randolph),(Fox),(Boyer),(Pierce),John
51-55 Shocker,Clarkson,(Doerr),HSmith,Saberhagen
56-60 FHoward,Bando,Bell,Quisenberry,MWilliams
61-65 Doyle,Cey,HWilson,Van Haltren,Ryan
66-70 Schang,McGraw,Bancroft,(Sewell),AWilson
71-75 RSmith,Cepeda,Stephens,Poles,Winters
76-80 Kaat,Mullane,ACooper,DiMaggio,Berger
81-85 Burns,Lynn,Taylor,Parker,Tiernan
86-90 Clark,(Thompson),JRice,Dawson,Pinson
91-95 Cedeno,Pesky,Chance,Brock,Staub
96-100 Cash,Fournier,Bonds,Lundy,McCormick
   31. favre Posted: September 26, 2007 at 03:11 PM (#2543397)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS (particularly for defense) on a season-to-season basis. I examine only those seasons in which the player performed at a reasonable star level, with playing time a significant consideration. Also, I do not use an arbitrary time frame in my analysis (I used to give emphasis to a player’s best seven years, but discarded that over thirty “years” ago). Therefore, long primes do very well in my system. However, I am not a strict career voter per se, and outstanding five-or six year peaks can also do well. I also give some weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Wade Boggs
2. Vic Willis
3. Ken Singleton

I don’t really think of Boggs as a unanimous electee, but he is pretty clearly ahead of the backlog.

With the election of Charley Jones, Vic Willis becomes my #1 backlogger. He was a workhorse--pitched 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118, was in the top ten IP leaders nine times. He also had decent peak years, with ERA+ seasons of 167, 155, and 154.

We haven’t elected many OFr’s from the ‘70s: Reggie, Pops, Yaz, Wynn, Winfield, and Dewey (and Dewey was much better in the 80s). With their decent peaks and long primes, I think Singleton and Reggie Smith should join them. Smith had more defensive value of course, but with playing time issues, I think Singleton comes out ahead on a season-to-season basis.

4. Reggie Smith
5. Bus Clarkson
6. Gavvy Cravath

I’m using Dr. C’s original MLE’s for Clarkson rather than the upgrades, but even those show that Clarkson was the best third basemen of the early 1940s, and arguably the best shortstop. If we’re going to elect a lumbering outfielder with a short career, I think Cravath would be a better choice than Browning. If you use Brent/Dayrn’s MLE’s for Browning, then I think Cravath was better season for season, if you give him credit for PCL play. He was an outstanding hitter in his age 32-36 seasons, even taking his park into account.

7. Kirby Puckett
8. Tommy Leach

Leach continues to look good to me. He has seasons of 132, 125, and 125 OPS+ as a WS Gold Glove 3B; as well as 136 and 132 as a Gold Glove CF. And we’ve only elected seven third basemen who played before 1950. Puckett drops a little on this ballot, but his hitting keeps him above Tommy.

9. Bucky Walters
10. Wally Schang

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defences were either in the service or growing old. Wally Schang is one of three old favourites who return to my ballot this year; he put up very good years at catcher every season from 1914-22 (except 1918).

11. Atanasio Perez
12. Alejandro Oms

Through much of the 1960s and early 70s, Oms was my top backlogger, and was #1 on my ballot several times. I dropped him off-ballot in a re-evaluation thirty years ago, when I had decided he didn’t particularly stand out against his contemporaries (and I thought we already elected too many of them). But I think I’ve been too hard on his era, and now that he’s surging in the voting I’m shamelessly climbing back on the bandwagon.

IMO, Perez in his prime (1967-73) looks similar to Elliott and Doyle in their primes; if I give Perez credit for his years at 1B 74-78, then he comes out ahead pretty easily.

13. Bob Elliott
14. Larry Doyle
15. Tommy Bridges

Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+. Bob Elliott, another old favourite, makes the ballot again. Doyle was a little better of a hitter, but Elliott had more defensive value.

Now that I’m being more realistic about the 1930s, Bridges’ ten top 10 ERA+ finishes stand out; if you remove his three #10 finishes, he still finishes seven times in the top six.

16. Bob Johnson
17. Dale Murphy
18. Frank Howard
19. Eddie Ciccotte
20. Dave Concepcion

Not in my top fifteen:

Pete Browning Brent/Daryn’s AA projections show he wasn’t a historic hitter, and he also had some playing time issues. I don’t think Browning’s election is a mistake—he obviously has a peak argument--but there are several outfielders whom I think are more deserving.

Dick Redding. Has been compared to Orel Hershiser. Seems apt: had a couple of big years which gives him an argument, but not quite enough for induction.

Bob Johnson Has now moved up all the way #16. If we’re talking about long prime candidates, I can’t see putting him ahead of Singleton (who was better at getting on base, and compares more favourably to his OF contemporaries) or Perez (with his time at 3B). But Bob would not be bad selection to the HoM by any means.

Andre Dawson As others have argued, Reggie Smith was significantly better.
   32. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 26, 2007 at 03:38 PM (#2543451)
Just an FYI: My house is all torn up due to renovations, and work is rather busy this week. It's entirely possible that I'm not going to post a ballot until late in the week. I'm hoping by sunday.
   33. TomH Posted: September 26, 2007 at 04:57 PM (#2543543)
favre, Singleton did have better on-base skills than Indian Bob, but then you have speed, slugging, defense, and career length if you give Johnson 1 yr of MinLg credit. I'll go with 4 out of 5.
   34. TomH Posted: September 26, 2007 at 05:15 PM (#2543563)
2005 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. Small credit for pitcher “peak”, none for hitters. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Wade Boggs {new}
Poor baserunning made him ill-suited for the role that his stunning batting talents made him otherwise best-suited for: the number two hole. Boggs also was partially a Fenway creation. Underrated by the populace in general (how they left him off of the all-century top100 is beyond me), but overrated by stats guys in general if they slavishly follow Runs Created.
2- John McGraw (3) [16]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base. Add in our shortage of 1890s infielders & shortage of pre-WWII 3Bmen, and he’s clearly “in” for me.
3- Bucky Walters (5) [10]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit real well too.
4- Bob Johnson (6) [6]
Very good long prime; clearly better over a 13-year stretch than our other backlog OFers. One very good MinorLg year of credit also.
5- Reggie Smith (7) [14]
Not quite the peak rate and durability for big-season voters, not long enough career for career voters. But overall a GREAT player. Helped every team he joined, and they hurt when he left.
6- George Van Haltren (8) [21]
Spent three years primarily as a pitcher. And is still 33rd all-time in runs scored.
7- Frank Chance (9) [56]
A great player on great teams. <u>And as good a hitter as Pete Browning.</u>.
8- Bill Monroe (10) [44]
Dominant in his day. Moreso than Oms or Redding or Clarkson or whoever your favorite NgLg candidate is.
9- Luis Tiant (11) [17]
Few unearned runs allowed. Small bonuses for post-season wins. Small discount for arriving in those luvly-to-pitch 60s.
10- Dick Redding (12) [9]
Great pitcher according to the anecdotes. Less great by MLEs. I split the difference.
11- Andre Dawson (14) [7]
Multiple gold gloves and other evidence make me think that BPro’s take on his D is understated. Bonus credit for strike-shortened ’81 gets him on.

------ fuzzy PHoM line ----

12- Bob Elliot (off) [38]
The 1947 MVP. Like I knew that already.
13- Burleigh Grimes (off) [29]
Another fine player bubbles up to the ballot.
14- Rick Reuschel (13) [49]
As JoeD pointed out, a lot of small items (low unearned runs, effect of relievers following, stronger league, not-so-many great pitchers in his day) adds up. I had been giving him a bonus for how few great pitchers there in this era, but upon reflection, we’ve honored Eck and Stieb and now Saberhagen gets in the mix too, so I think I had over-corrected.
15- Kirrrrbeeeeee PUCKETT! (15) [5]
Post-season heroics get him on my ballot. Barely.

and at #16, ready for some ballot action next time: a guy I haven’t voted for in a bazillion years... Ed Williamson.


Bret Saberhagen {new}
Closest comps are Newcombe and Reuschel. Simply wonderful at his best. Was he great in the ‘85 WS? Sure. Did he stink in the postseason otherwise? Yup. No bonus for all of that. I’m a little cautious on Bret – he played in the 1990s when top ERA+ figures started heading back up into ‘ooh-shiny’ territory. He merely retired earlier than some other not-yet-eligibles. I’ll tentatively put him at #19 to start.

Tony Phillips – HOVG.

FYI – I bumped Lou Brock up this ballot from #50ish to #18. While Lou gets props for many for his ’67 World Series, we oughta also consider the year 1964: traded to the Cardinals on June 15. They were at their low point, 28-31. St. Louie went 65-38 rest of way. Brock had a 146 OPS+, and the Cards won pennant with a torrid stretch at the end. That’s a pretty valuable half-season, no?

Returning top 10 disclosures:

Pete Browning (off) [4] – cover up his seasons before age 25, when he was in a very weak AA, and he looks like Babe Herman. Do we want to elect a guy based on dominating a minor league? Van Haltren had as good an offensive career from age 25 on, and was better with the glove.

A. Oms (off) [9] – One more good-hitting OFer from the 20s and 30s. He might make my ballot if there weren’t a lot of these guys around already. Falls short of Bob Johnson.
   35. TomH Posted: September 26, 2007 at 05:21 PM (#2543568)
next 16:
E Williamson, G Nettles, L Brock, B Saberhagen, B Clarkson
D Mattingly, D Newcombe, T Bridges, E Howard, B Bonds
D DiMaggio, Lee Smith, T Perez, D Concepcion, N Cash, P Traynor
   36. Daryn Posted: September 26, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2543654)
I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.
I am really lost after my top 12. I cannot make a distinction between the value of the players anymore at that level. If I had a choice, I’d only vote for 8 candidates.

Puckett’s career is too short (though I have moved him up to 27). Oms falls into the Hall of Very Good for me with so many similar players. That said, he is just behind Puckett at 31, between Arlett and Duffy. Johnson is right behind that and I have Walters with a bunch of pitchers between 40 and 70. Saberhagen is below that.

1. Wade Boggs – probably the best hitter I ever saw (i.e., the one I had most confidence would get a hit when he came to the plate). I still remember dozens and dozens of groundballs or low line drives up the middle. A true pleasure to watch.

2. Lou Brock – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers. With Beckley elected, he is my last real Teddy Bear.

4. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

5. Andre Dawson – very comparable to Perez. I have put him ahead of Perez because, as I remember it, his centrefield defense was very good.

6. Tony Perez – this might be a bit high, but I am comfortable with it. 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

7. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

8. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Martinez, Kaat, Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

9. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning benefits from a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

10. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat. No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.

11. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

12. Dave Parker – I think he is very similar to Rice, but I like Rice’s peak better. Their career counting stats impress me.

13. Sam Rice -- 2987 hits speaks to me, but not even the best starch on the ballot.

14. Orlando Cepeda – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means 23, 24 and 25 spaces respectively on this ballot.

15. Luis Tiant – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.
   37. DL from MN Posted: September 26, 2007 at 06:47 PM (#2543679)
"Weird not having Bresnahan on my ballot, BTW"

I know how you feel. I just realized that Bob Johnson might actually get elected this year and if not this year, next year looks really good. It's strange to have someone I've supported for years without much luck get on the cusp.
   38. sunnyday2 Posted: September 26, 2007 at 06:54 PM (#2543689)
Two words. Pete Browning.
   39. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 26, 2007 at 07:59 PM (#2543788)
I just realized that Bob Johnson might actually get elected this year and if not this year, next year looks really good.

FWIW, I'm working on Indian Bob's and Kirby's plaques just in case (Browning's was done a few elections ago). That's based solely on their placement in the last election.

It's strange to have someone I've supported for years without much luck get on the cusp.

Besides Bresnahan, Charley Jones was another guy on my ballot that finally left it after many, many years. Most likely Browning will make it three elections in a row with that same phenomena.
   40. sunnyday2 Posted: September 26, 2007 at 08:23 PM (#2543820)
>It's strange to have someone I've supported for years without much luck get on the cusp.

Still, even if he gets elected this year, it would be a stretch to say that Pete Browning has had any luck around here. Two years running he lost out to questionable ballots being included (in the first case) and excluded (in the second). If the two had been handled the same--either way--he was in several years ago. And since then somebody always strangely leap-frogs over him. It hasn't not happened this year yet.

Compared to that Bob Johnson's luck has all been pretty good.
   41. favre Posted: September 26, 2007 at 11:11 PM (#2544041)
Bob Johnson vs. Ken Singleton, seasons of OPS+:

Singleton 165 56 53 52 47 42 35 32 31 18 09 01

Johnson 174 55 47 43 41 35 34 29 29 27 25 25

Johnson beats Singleton in season 1--but that was 1944, so we have to discount it some. Singleton was better in seasons 2-8, and his OPS was more OBP heavy, so he had more value than the OPS+ numbers suggest. Johnson has the advantage the last three seasons, but again, two of those seasons need a war discount. A 125 or 27 OPS+ is not impressive from a corner OF in '43 or '45 (although still better than Singelton's 109/101).

WS has them at about equal defensive value. Johnson was definitely a better baserunner, but I don't think the fewer GDP and greater SB totals make up Singleton's advantage in OBP. We also already have more OFr's from the 1930s than the 1970s. On my ballot Singleton is ahead by thirteen spots (#3 and #16); given the size of the backlog, I'm quite comfortable with that.
   42. Howie Menckel Posted: September 26, 2007 at 11:35 PM (#2544099)
2005 ballot - our (and my) 108th

I had last year's electees Molitor-Eckersley-Bresnahan at 1-2-8 on my ballot.

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs/IP per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day or pitched a ton of innings.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.
I guess I would be one of the few not too upset if none of the backloggers ever made it, but I won't cry when a few do anyway.

1. WADE BOGGS - Over 150 OPS+ 5 times, with 3 more over 140 (5 of those seasons in the top 5 in the AL). Strong, for a 3B. Spent about 3000 PA as a 100ish OPS+er, so he's a little overrated in one respect. But a top player from 1983-91 and a very solid 1994, strikus interruptus. No competition here; eventually I suspect I'll find him below a couple of lesser-rated HOFers, especially with some baserunning concerns sprinkled in.

2. PETE BROWNING - Mega-leap down to here. Stubbornly holding on, as the recent swipes at him didn't reveal anything I wasn't already factoring. Look at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This lousy fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not as much as some think; it was a different game then.
3. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years and now finally has climbed back to "elect-me." I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the so-so ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.

4. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over an endless span, though I'd hardly say he's a 'must-elect.' Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition, so I discount that a bit. But has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
5. BOB ELLIOTT - Good to see him mentioned in a discussion thread 4-5 years back, at least. Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B. Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out HOMer Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see DaEvans thread).
6. REGGIE SMITH - Pretty much completes a 6-year renaissance from off-ballot to top modern OF. Not convinced he's a HOMer, either, but solid in so many respects. Weird patterns of high-skill vs high-PA, but he's just damn good every year, basically. Played a lot of CF, and quietly was one of the better OFs of his era. Closer to Puckett defensively than I had thought, and finally he wins this battle.
7. BEN TAYLOR - Had meant to reconsider him for years; finally did so 3 yrs ago. Long career, excellent fielder, consistent player. I'm not 100 pct sold on the hitting MLEs, but very good reputation and for sure a quality player. Moves up slightly.
8. GRAIG NETTLES - 5th time on my ballot, keeps moving up (3B-centric ballot, isn't it?). Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78.
9. KIRBY PUCKETT - Good prime for a CF, but not amazing. I had said if I wasn't sold on him being an excellent defensive CF in his first 6-8 years, he'd drop a bit. And now I believe his defensive prime didn't last that long, so he did drop a few spots. I'll pass on the intangibles, but he holds his own against BobBonds offensively, for instance, and has just enough at the finish line to pass DaMurphy on long prime.
10. VIC WILLIS - Won a recent SP bakeoff with Grimes and Walters, with slightly more career than Walters and better peak than Grimes. It's close, but I'll stick with Willis for yet another year.
11. DAVE CONCEPCION - 4th time on my ballot. Peak is as good or better than Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. Similar case to Bancroft, whose prime I preferred in other years to Concepcion's length. It's close.
12. BUCKY WALTERS - Bounces from off-ballot back up to 12th; has seen my ballot before. Seemed to get Jim Palmer-like defensive support, without enough super-stats to make that irrelevant. Proved his mettle outside of 'war years.' Lemon-esque, though I wasn't a big fan there.
13. ORLANDO CEPEDA - Suddenly popped up on my ballot 7 years ago with the reevaluation. Had been losing out to Perez with positional consideration, but closer look shows a sterling top-4 and top-10 offensive line. DH opportunity added nothing to his case.
14. FRANK HOWARD - Usually someone pops back on my ballot each year, this time it's Hondo again. I had forgotten how spectacular his peak was, and his career tally - 142 OPS+ in nearly 8000 PA. Yes, he suffers due to defense - he could make a case for ranking No. 1 if he could field! Best-3 seasons - 177-70-70 in 1968-70, with almost 2100 PA total - make these other guys look like banjo hitters.
15. KEN SINGLETON - Bob Johnson-like, but not good for quite as long. Equally underappreciated in his time.

ANDRE DAWSON - Loved to watch him as a player, bottom line is that he simply made too many outs to be elected (per PA of course). And my system basically throws his last 1100 PA out the window (and counting stats), for which he should be grateful. I guess I'll look again next year, though.
ALEJANDRO OMS - Not the type of white player I loved, either - not convinced OF defense is a ticket-puncher, nor of the longevity proposed in his thread. Deserving of our consideration and vault from obscurity, for sure.
HUGH DUFFY - Perhaps Win Shares' most embarrassing error. The Roger Maris of the turn of the century - wait, Roger had TWO great seasons and was a good fielder, too.
TONY PEREZ - Faked it for 5 years at 3B, mostly a 1B and a lotta stat-padding on the downside. Doesn't have the peak I want in guys like this, nor the sufficient OPS+ toward the end.
GAVVY CRAVATH - Have voted for him before; do give him some minor league credit, absolutely. A reasonable pick; I just think that not only did he get a huge boost from the Baker Bowl, others could have done the same. Anyone else who has THIS much more MLB production in his 30s than his 20s? Yes, but not many.

DAVE BANCROFT - Not sure if I ever voted for him before 5 or 6 years ago. But look at the prime: fantastic fielder at SS, with OPS+s of 120-19-19-09-09-09-04. Won a fresh 3-way evaluation vs Fox and Concepcion at one point. Similar to Randolph, but an SS, so maybe Bancroft gets the nod next time.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing onto this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
RON CEY - In the past I have had him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting. Talk me into voting for him.
LEE SMITH - Very tough one. 10 seasons I really like a lot, only 1 or 2 I love. Sutter has more to love, less to like. A lot of RPs do. Off my ballot, but very much in consideration.
   43. Howie Menckel Posted: September 26, 2007 at 11:37 PM (#2544106)
huh, that's funny to see favre's Singleton-Johnson comments appear above my ballot.
Well, we agree they're about a dozen spots apart!

I'll list out the OFs per year in the discussion thread, if I haven't done so already..
   44. Jim Sp Posted: September 27, 2007 at 12:18 AM (#2544271)
Summary of rating system: I now rely a lot of Dan R’s warp, which I like because of the relatively high replacement level compared to Win Shares and BP Warp (though I quote BP w3 below for ease of reference). I like Dan R’s peak salary estimator as well, my belief is that good rate stats show a player who would still be a star if they played in a higher level league. That’s important to me, if we formed a league with the 500 greatest players of all time at their peak, I want my HoM ballot to have the guys who aren’t stuck on the bench in that league. But I am not pure peak, I look at the sum over all years, rather than looking only at the top N years.

For pitchers I do an analysis based on K/W/HR rates vs. league norms, look at IP*(ERA+ - 80), and review Joe D’s analysis. For pitchers I am not artificially cutting the numbers by era, IP norms, or pitching standard deviations, as I believe it makes sense to take more pitchers during eras when the best pitchers had more impact on the standings.

1) BoggsOverwhelmingly qualified.
2) Saberhagen1985-1994 are enough for me with 1337 K/352BB= 3.8K/W for 1917 IP. Top BP W3: 11.7, 10.2, 10.2, 8.7. Even 1999 is remarkable, 81K and only 11BB in 119 IP. There’s no doubt he was great, 2562 IP is enough bulk for me.
3) Tommy JohnA good pitcher every year from 1965 to 1980 except the year out, with 1979 a very good peak year (8.4 BP W3). I figure by 1980 he was getting to into candidate territory, then went on to win 74 more games. 4710 IP is a lot, at ERA+ of 111.
4) John McGraw--Ultra-dominant player when healthy. Set the quality of league anywhere you want, and McGraw is starting and a star when healthy.
5) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942, and 1946 wasn’t a good one for him as well. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
6) Campaneris--great non-SB baserunning.
7) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders. PHoM 1994.
8) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2. PHoM 1995.
9) Reggie Smith--I’m convinced now. Compare to Wynn.
10) Reuschel--Joe D is on to something here, the bad defense behind him is not his fault.
11) Quinn--Joe D makes the case for him also, it’s not an accident that he was able to pitch in the majors to age 49. 114 ERA+ for almost 4000 IP, plus PCL credit, plus leverage credit…
12) BancroftConvinced now that the BP warp discount is excessive.
13) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
14) Jim WhitneyOPS+ of 112 in the stronger league, plus a K/W ratio of 1571/411. Nice.
15) Dutch LeonardPitched for a lot of terrible teams, Dag Nabbit has documented the horrible run support. DIPS data for the era is good, BP translates record to 203-161. ERA+ 119 for 3218 IP.

Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much.
Puckett—Like Dan R said, not close. Would need to channel the 1988 or 1992 Puckett for about 3 more years to make it. If I give him the benefit of the doubt I have to put Ross Youngs in too.
Dawson—1980 to 1983 is about halfway to the HoM, but the shoulder seasons just aren’t enough, and the last 4 are worthless. Close though.
Redding #20.
Walters—walked more than he struck out, I’m not convinced that the hitting and fielding provide enough runs to outweigh that to get him in the HoM.
   45. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: September 27, 2007 at 12:43 AM (#2544338)
I'm a peak guy. I'll give proper respect for a career, but not for tack-on seasons. OPS+, ERA+ and WARP3 are my stats of choice.

1. Wade Boggs - Great, great hitter. Anything negative you can say about his candidacy is picking nits.
2. Pete Browning - Monster batting peak. Twist the league quality numbers however you might like, he still hit the hell out of the ball.
3. Hugh Duffy - Great bat, great glove, OPS+ not nearly as bad as his detractors would have you think.
4. Ken Singleton - Consistently a top-5 bat. Worth 15 batting wins in his top-3 seasons.
5. Bret Saberhagen - Great peak. Only quibble is not enough IP, but he's right there with his contemporaries. Very similar to Steib.
6. Thurman Munson - I'm sold that he was very similar to Freehan. Thurm is starting to get the support he deserves. Take another look, if you haven't lately.
7. Buddy Bell - He's very close to Darrell Evans in my system, just a bit better than Nettles.
8. Graig Nettles - WARP likes him, and so do I. A poor man's Brooks Robinson.
9. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player. A MUCH better candidate than Dawson.
10. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
11. Tommy Leach - Wow did I miss him for a while. Love the WARP, the career, just not the peak, though it was OK.
12. Luis Tiant - Realized I was low on pitchers. Took another look at them and Tiant moved up, while Dean moved back down on re-eval. Mickey Welch and Tommy John are on the cusp of my ballot, though.
13. Don Mattingly - Clark, Murphy, and Donnie Baseball are essentially tied in my system. Excellent defender, great 3 year peak.
14. Gavvy Cravath - Looking at Charley Jones again, led me to look at Gavvy again. He has the peak to make a case as a HOM'er to me, and so he's here.
15. Dale Murphy - Far superior to Dawson. Unless you only care about counting stats, I'm not seeing how you can discount this hybrid OF and vote for Dawson, I'm just not.

Required Disclosures:

Andre Dawson: You know how there's a few who vehemently oppose Browning? That's how I feel about Dawson. We're really going to elect a guy who made an out 70% of the time he came to the plate? REALLY!?!?!? There is zero argument that can be made to convince me he's worthy.
Kirby Puckett: Huh? No where near Dale Murphy. Don't get the love.
Bob Johnson: Down near 50 - just not enough peak or prime - kind of Beckley-lite in that regard.
Tony Perez: Definitely not a fan of Tony. Didn't hit when he played 1B, Didn't field at 3B. Off the top of my head I can think of 5 guys not in the HOM at each position I'd rather have.
Bucky Walters: Used to like Bucky a lot. We elected Steib and I took another look at Bucky. Too many question marks. He's still in the Top-20, though.
Dick Redding: Used to love him, took another look at him a few years back - his numbers in the 20's don't help his case. Still, he's in the 20's, not much lower than Welch and John.
   46. OCF Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:58 AM (#2544616)
14) Jim Whitney OPS+ of 112 in the stronger league, plus a K/W ratio of 1571/411. Nice.

Is the difference between an OPS+ of 112 and an OPS+ of 70 really worth an ERA+ over 10 points higher in about 700 more innings? The comparison is to Jim McCormick.
   47. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 27, 2007 at 04:02 PM (#2545431)
Jim Sp--Brilliant ballot. Congratulations on your incisive analysis of the candidates. :)
   48. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 27, 2007 at 04:43 PM (#2545486)
2005 ballot

1. Wade Boggs - clear #1, great OBP and BA from a middle fo the spectrum defensive position
2. Dick Redding - 2nd NeL pitcher of teh dead ball era after Smokey Joe
3. Hugh Duffy - I give him credit for his team's overperformance
4. Bucky Walters - Similar to, but just behind, Stieb
5. Elston Howard - Very similar to HOMer Quincey Trouppe except that he actually played in MLB
6. Pete Browning - Great, great hitter
7. Gavvy Cravath - Just below Browning, coudl have been better had things broken his way
8. Don Mattingly - Very similar to HOMers Hernandez and Sisler
9. Dizzy Dean - Koufax Lit, not enough for some but it is for me
10. Ale Oms - Very nice prime
11. Vic Willis - Better than Griffith?
12. George Van Haltren - Very similar to Oms, his pitching days are overrated
13. Urban Shocker - Very good pitcher of the early 20's for SLA
14. Larry Doyle - Maybe more of a 3B than a 2B, still a very godod hitter for an infielder
15. John McGraw - Very high OBP's makes him a viable peak candidate, not much outside of it though.


Saberhagen - Dizzy Dean lite for me, in the high 20's

Dawson - Just don't get it outside of shiny career WS total
Perez - Not a bad choice (in the 30's for me) but I prefer others much more
Puckett - Similar to Wally Berger, in the hunt for a PHOM spot in the next few years.
   49. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 27, 2007 at 06:57 PM (#2545679)
Shoot, I forgot to explain Bob Johnson.

Bob Johnson - Not a very good peak, his best year was during the Second World War, but he did have a nice floor I guess. OVerall, I do not see why he woudl be any more worthy when compared to ears to guys I prefer such as Ken Singleton and Frank Howard.
   50. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 27, 2007 at 06:58 PM (#2545684)
that should read 'when compared to his era'
   51. Jim Sp Posted: September 27, 2007 at 08:20 PM (#2545850)
Is the difference between an OPS+ of 112 and an OPS+ of 70 really worth an ERA+ over 10 points higher in about 700 more innings? The comparison is to Jim McCormick.

No, in that case the career ERA+/IP evidence favors McCormick. However the K/W data (to which defense does not contribute) indicates that Whitney was the superior pitcher, plus I weight peak heavily. 1883-4 Whitney had 615 K's against 62 BB, with OPS+ of 124 and 117, in the NL. That establishes a peak level which is out of this world.

Also McCormick's 207 ERA+ in 1884 means nothing, the UA was not anywhere near ML level.
   52. sunnyday2 Posted: September 27, 2007 at 10:52 PM (#2546383)
See 2005 ballot discussion thread in re. #51.
   53. dan b Posted: September 28, 2007 at 03:33 AM (#2547478)
PHoM 2005 – Boggs, Saberhagen, Parker

1. Boggs PHoM 2005. NHBA #60 seems too high, but easy number one on this ballot.
2. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time. NHBA #25 pitcher.
3. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak – 3 WS Cy Youngs, 1 runner up.
4. Duffy PHoM 1912. Compared with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS, Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons, 3 best and 8 best seasons.
5. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. Stark says he is overrated, but Stark didn’t give him any war credit. NHBA #16.
6. Cooper, W PHoM 1942. Returns to my ballot in 1995 after 44-year hiatus. His peak was during a thinly recognized period. 1 WS Cy Young, 3 times runner up. Willis may have been better, but his era is more strongly represented.
7. Singleton PHoM 1997. Not many players on ballot with 3-32+ and 6-27+ WS seasons.
8. Burns, G. PHoM 1996. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have, better late than never. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median as is his 3-year non-consecutive.
9. Leach PHoM 1926. Teddy bear.
10. Murphy PHoM 2002. 4 consecutive seasons with 30+ WS
11. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
12. Mays, C PHoM 1997. His era could use another pitcher. A quality pitcher we are overlooking. NHBA #38.
13. Newcombe PHoM 1998. Giving more war and mle credit (1993). NHBA #46.
14. Saberhagen PHoM 2005. Nice peak.
15. PuckettPHoM 2003. NHBA #98 overall.
16. Bando PHoM 1994. NHBA #11 (Boyer #12)
17. Mattingly PHoM 2004. NHBA #12.
18. Howard, E PHoM 1995. NHBA #15
19. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
20. Browning PHoM 1912.
21. Parker PHoM 2005. Do the first base line Dave. NHBA #14.
22. Howard, F
23. Berger
24. Rosen If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
25. Bonds, Bo Barry’s dad was pretty good.
26. Munson NHBA #14
27. Dawson
28. Staub Most career value on the ’02 ballot.
29. Veach
30. Evans, Dw I know he is a HoMer, just holding his place for the PHoM.
31. Perez Not enough good seasons to be higher. Jayson Stark says he is overrated.
32. Cepeda
33. Tiant
34. Cash, N
35. Doyle PHoM 1930.
36. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
37. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots; Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
38. Grimes
39. Ryan, J
40. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan? Walked 16 in stellar pitching performance 6/27/1887.
41. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles.
42. Elliott
43. Brock not enough peak to be higher
44. Pinson
45. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
46. Sutter I like him better than Fingers.
47. Arlett
48. Traynor
49. Nettles
50. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
51. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
52. Bell
53. Murcer
54. Evers Comparable to Randolph.
55. Randolph A PHoM place holder. Overrated by HoM.
56. Cey
57. Mazeroski
58. McGraw Best 3B of the 90’s
59. Colavito
60. J. Rice
   54. OCF Posted: September 28, 2007 at 03:57 AM (#2547506)
37. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – ...

danb, if you'll check the 2003 results, you might find less motivation for writing out this explanation. (Not that it changes anything the ballot counters care about.)
   55. Thane of Bagarth Posted: September 28, 2007 at 02:19 PM (#2547759)
2005 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election.

1) Wade Boggs
I have him as the 3rd best third baseman of all-time, just a hair behind Mathews, well behind Schmidt.

2) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

3) Andre Dawson
Hawk racked up a ton of career value, but so did Perez and Staub. A peak that’s a little better than Staub and not quite as good as Perez lands him here.

4) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super, but 102.7 career is respectable.

5) Frank Tanana
His WARP totals are very good (111 WARP3 career, 47 top 5 seasons), but Win Shares has him as run of the mill. I lean a little more towards WARP in my rankings so Tanana is in the top half of the ballot this year.

6) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

7) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

8) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

9) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

10) Kirby Puckett
Would be greatly helped if he had 3-4 more years in the rabbit-ball era of the late ‘90s. He’s also hurt a little in that he didn’t get to add 2-3 filler years at the beginning of his career.

11) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

12) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers are a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

13) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

14) Ken Singleton
Similar overall career and peak value to Bonds. Both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3

15) Dale Murphy
Over half of his career value comes from an impressive 5-year peak. Razor thin margin separates him from Singleton.

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Luis Tiant—By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).
17) Bill Monroe
18) Jimmy Ryan
19) Gavy Cravath—A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.
20) Dizzy Trout
21) Tommy John
22) Buddy Bell
23) Sam Rice
25) Brett Butler
25) Don Mattingly
26) Tommy Leach
27) Bus Clarkson
28) Rabbit Maranville
29) Norm Cash
30) Jim Kaat
31) Dave Parker
32) Reggie Smith
33) Jack Clark
34) Buzz Arlett
35) Burleigh Grimes
36) Jack Quinn
37) Bob Elliot
38) Jose Cruz
39) Harry Hooper
40) Dave Concepcion
41) Tony Phillips
42) Ron Cey
43) Vada Pinson
44) Phil Rizzuto
45) Alejandro Oms—I’ve always considered Duffy a good comp for Oms, which means they’ll both be stuck in my backlog unless one or the other is elected.
46) Hugh Duffy—His uberstat numbers don’t convince me it’s a mistake to rank him here, though he isn’t terribly far behind some of the OFs at the bottom of my ballot.
47) Rick Reuschel
48) Orlando Cepeda
49) Cesar Cedeno
50) Dick Lundy

61) Bret Saberhagen—I actually have him slightly higher than Stieb, but that doesn’t mean I think he’s HoMable.

New Players Not in Top 100:
Darryl Strawberry—62.9 WARP1 before age 30, 6.1 after.
Mark Langston—Really not all that far behind Sabes…Langston’s peak isn’t quite as good.
Chili Davis—Having zero defensive value for 2/3 of your career makes it hard to consider him seriously.
Gary Gaetti—I think I counted 12 years with a WARP3 between 5.0 and 6.3. Never great, though he did have a couple very good years, but at least he was consistent.

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him falling farther and farther behind the real ballot contenders.
   56. DanG Posted: September 28, 2007 at 04:40 PM (#2547939)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady production over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates. Finally, unlike Bill James and most voters I don’t give any “consecutive-seasons” bonus; value is value.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1, #2 and #11 were elected. It’s Boggs and a backlog bonanza in 2005. In 2006, Will Clark is the top name while Belle goes through the wringer. Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire and Cone come on for 2007. In 2008, it’s Raines and two more backloggers.

1) Wade Boggs – Easily a consensus top-100 player.

2) George Van Haltren – We’ve now elected 17 players who were behind him in 1972. Huh? Were we so wrong about him for 50+ elections? No, we’re wrong now. Now in his 97th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Had 381 adjusted WS for career, with 11 years of 25+ and a 3-yr peak of 89 from 1896-98. Had 111.3 WARP1 for career, with 10 years of 7.0+ and a 3-yr peak of 27.9 from 1896-98.

Players with <u>most stolen bases 1891-1900: </u>
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren
3—416 H. Duffy

One non-HoMer here, Players with <u>3400 times on base 1871-1909</u>:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

3) Andre Dawson – My kind of candidate, multi-dimensional skills and longevity. Adjusting 1981 gives him peak WS from 1980-83 of 29-35-26-28. Also, 352 WS for career adjusting for 1981, 94-95 strikes. WARP3 from 1980-83: 9.0-10.5-9.0-7.9. Also, 108.8 for career.

4) Tony Perez – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great. <u>Firstbasmen with most Total Bases over a 15-year period, 1949-98</u>:

1977-91 4181 E. Murray
1967-81 3915 T.Perez
1959-73 3810 H. Killebrew
1972-86 3800 S. Garvey
1958-72 3684 O. Cepeda
1966-80 3430 L. May
1973-87 3400 C. Cooper
1963-77 3379 D. Allen
1973-87 3375 B. Buckner
1963-77 3360 W. McCovey

5) Tommy Leach – Enjoyed his highest finish in sixty years in 2002; he finished ahead of nine HoMers in 1942. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). Players with <u>1300 or more RBI plus Runs Scored, 1902-11:</u>
1—1883 H. Wagner
2—1726 S. Crawford
3—1429 T. Leach
4—1408 N. Lajoie
5—1392 H. Davis
6—1343 F. Clarke
<u>Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10</u>:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

6) Burleigh Grimes – Comparable to E. Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with <u>3800+ IP, 1916-75</u>. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller

7) Jimmy Ryan – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of eight HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs-Jones. <u>Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903</u>:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
<u>Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918</u>
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

8) Rusty Staub – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with <u>OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA</u>:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

9) Graig Nettles – Another looonggg career 1970’s star; Darrell Evans lite. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

10) Rabbit Maranville – Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 133.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.8 (high of 8.1). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 101.1, just in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

11) Wally Schang – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan, so he’s still on the radar. Players with <u>OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA</u>:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

12) Gavy Cravath –Yeah, he has problems, but they all do. Had a long career, was a regular player into his late 30’s. And he had a high peak. What more do you need? Circumstances beyond his control kept him out of MLB for many years.

13) Alejandro Oms –MLEs show OPS+ of 125 in +9000 PA. Win shares 340. Those are obvious HoMer numbers for a CF. Only my hatred of Negro leaguers has made him wait this long. Seriously, even my hyper-skeptical eye has to cave at some point.

14) Elston Howard – First time on ballot. I’ve always been a friend of catchers. Had a long career, was a regular player into his late 30’s. And he had a high peak. What more do you need? Circumstances beyond his control kept him out of a regular MLB job for many years.

15) Bob Johnson – First time on ballot. At this late point in the project, players near the end of the ballot (10+) are outside the HoMer circle. I like the long, high prime, plus two years of minor league credit (35-40 adj WS).

Top tenners off ballot:

If we elect Browning it will be further proof of mistakes in the design of our system; if a guy who’s liked by about a third of the electorate, and ranked +50 by another third, can make it in, something’s wrong. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era.

Kirby Puckett lurks just off-ballot. Nice prime.

Redding is a good candidate if you put total faith in the translations showing a stratospheric peak.

Bucky Walters – Was on 1997 ballot. Think I might’ve had him a tad overrated, but he’s close.

Saberhagen falls in the peak-pitcher line somewhere back of Dean. Only five years with 30 games started.
   57. KJOK Posted: September 28, 2007 at 09:22 PM (#2548322)
Added “Rosenheck Method” to using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baselines. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. WADE BOGGS, 3B. 51 POW, 394 Win Shares, 122 WARP1, 575 RCAP & .665 OWP in 10,740 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. One of top all-time 3Bmen.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 207 Win Shares, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

3. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

4. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons.

5. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith – better hitter than Ozzie, and almost as great fielding - so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

6. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 3 ballot player.

7. CRAIG NETTLES, 3B. 22 POW, 321 Win Shares, 100 WARP1, 96 RCAP & .535 OWP in 10,226 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Glove, Longevity, and Position push him up ballot.

8. BUS CLARKSON, SS/3B. Estimated 123 OPS+ over 8,478 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Hitting far exceeds guys like Marcelle, Dandridge, etc. Tore up the Texas League when he was older and the league was high quality.

9. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

10. PHIL RIZZUTO, SS 19 POW, 231 Win Shares, 74 WARP1, 67 RCAP & .494 OWP in 6,710 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Defense, War Credit, and Postion moved him up.

11. BERT CAMPANERIS, SS 14 POW, 280 Win Shares, 90 WARP1, 149 RCAP & .470 OWP in 9,625 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Convinced better than Concepcion & Fregosi.

12. DAVE CONCEPCION, SS 18 POW, 269 Win Shares, 100 WARP1, 126 RCAP & .425 OWP in 9,640 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Right up with Ozzie defensively.

13. JIM FREGOSI, SS. 26 POW, 261 Win Shares, 76 WARP1, 203 RCAP & .565 OWP in 7,402 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Just needs a little more something – defense, or career length, etc. – but still historically underrated, and perhaps just as good as Dobie Moore and Concepcion.

14. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

15. ANDRE DAWSON, CF/RF. 18 POW, 340 Win Shares, 108 WARP1, 140 RCAP & .564 OWP in 10,769 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Pretty much the poster boy for the problems of Win Shares and WARP, as he ‘longevitied’ himself into high totals in those measures, but he still ranks pretty well for a CFer.



BRET SABERHAGEN, P.28 POW, 193 Win Shares, 88 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 167 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 126 ERA+ in 2,563 innings. Three really good years, but too many injury or sub-par years beyond that.


PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

KIRBY PUCKETT, CF. 24 POW, 281 Win Shares, 81 WARP1, 209 RCAP & .602 OWP in 12,358 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Needs a little more value to be any higher.

ALEJANDRO OMS, CF/RF. Estimated 126 OPS+ over 5,152 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Eric Davis. That won’t cut it in this crowd.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

GAVVY CRAVATH, RF. 18 POW, 202 Win Shares, 59 WARP1, 238 RCAP & .709 OWP in 4,644 PA’s. Def: FAIR. McGraw provided better offense in more MLB PA’s at a tougher position.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.
   58. rico vanian Posted: September 28, 2007 at 09:37 PM (#2548327)
Not a good week (so far) to be a Mets fan. But ya gotta bee-lieve!!!!!!!!!!!!

1) Wade Boggs- He eats more chicken then you’ve ever seen.
2) Kirby Puckett- If players like Charlie Keller get in on short (but excellent) careers; than Puckett is a shoo-in. Great and clutch player who shouldn’t be penalized by a freak injury. He missed the years that would have pumped up his career totals, but his legacy was made in the years he played.
3) Chuck Klein – 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
4) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
5) Luis Aparicio – nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists. I saw alot of love for Ozzie, how about some for Looie?
6) Burleigh Grimes – 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
7) Pie Trayner – .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
8)Ernie Lombardi – 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
9) Dale Murphy – A heckuva peek, gets points off for a lousy batting average.
10) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished. If Freehan is in, than Thrum deserves consideration.
11) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
12) Andre Dawson – Power and speed (at least in his early years)
13) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller got more votes than him.
14)Don Mattingly – Short but awesome peak (see comments on Puckett).
15) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
No soup for...
16) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
17) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
18) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
19) Dave Parker – Drugs are bad, mmkay?
20) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
21) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
22) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
23) Joe Carter – Betetr than the Baylor/Smith/Johnson trifecta, but still not top 15 material.
24) Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
25) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
26) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
27) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
28) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
29) Jack Morris- Big game pitcher. Nuff said.
30) Tommy John &
31) Jim Kaat - Longevity certainly, Greatness no.
32) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
33) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
34) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
35) Vida Blue – What might have been…
36) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
37) Don Baylor &
38) Reggie Smith The Hall of very good beckons
39) Bob Johnson (see Baylor & Smith)
40) Bucky Walters- Nice peak, but not enough.
41) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
42) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.
43) Lee Smith – Career aggregator. Scary looking mofo too.
   59. jimd Posted: September 28, 2007 at 10:46 PM (#2548383)
Ballot for 2005

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has had an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system. Important parts of my peak and prime assessment are both the quantity and quality of a player's "All-Star" selections. These are the seasons where the player is able to make a positive contribution to a typical "playoff contender" (top 25% of participating teams). I use both WARP and Win Shares, though I emphasize the former because of its demonstrated overall yearly positional balance throughout baseball history.

I am reexamining my ballot carefully annually as we go deep into the backlog.

1) W. BOGGS -- !. Prime 1983-95. Best player in 1986 by WS; candidate in 1987 and 1988. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1986, 1987, 1988; WARP adds 1989. Other star seasons include 1983, 1984, 1985, 1990, 1991, 1993, and 1994.

2) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

3) B. SABERHAGEN -- Makes my PHOM this year. High peak candidate, with a career too. Prime 1985-94. Best player candidate in 1989 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1985, 1987, 1989; WS adds 1994. Other star seasons include 1988. Honorable mention in 1991.

4) K. PUCKETT -- Made my PHOM in 2003. Prime 1985-1995. Best player candidate in 1988 and 1992 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1986 and 1988 by WS; 1992 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1987, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1994. HM in 1985, 1993, and 1995.

5) F. TANANA -- Made my PHOM in 2004. More good seasons than Gossage. Poster-child for pitcher abuse. Still has the peak and also has the career. Prime 1974-77. Best player candidate in 1976 and 1977 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1976; WARP adds 1975, 1977. Other star seasons include 1974, 1984. Honorable mention in 1987.

6) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

7) L. TIANT -- Nice blend of peak, prime, and career. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

8) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

9) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

10) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886.

12) D. DEAN -- High peak candidate. Prime 1932-36. Candidate for best player in MLB baseball, 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

13) B. BONDS -- Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

14) P. TRAYNOR -- Back after another reevaluation. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

15) R. CEY -- Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

16) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

17) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

18) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

19) F. VIOLA -- Better than I thought. Tiant-lite, more peak, less career. Prime 1984-93. Best player candidate by WARP in 1988. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1987 and 1988; WS adds 1984. Other star seasons include 1989, 1990, and 1992.

20) D. REDDING -- Long career candidate. Fell off due to influx of new candidates.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Don Mattingly, Jim McCormick, Norm Cash,
24-26) Rabbit Maranville, Ron Guidry, Lance Parrish,
27-29) Jim Whitney, Mark Langston, Dizzy Trout,
30-32) Thurman Munson, Elston Howard, George Foster,
33-35) Vic Willis, Bobby Veach, Bob Johnson,
36-38) Urban Shocker, George Burns, Brett Butler,
39-41) Herman Long, Dale Murphy, Graig Nettles,
42-44) Ned Williamson, Andre Dawson, Bob Elliott,
45-47) Denny Lyons, Hugh Duffy, Vida Blue,
48-50) George VanHaltren, Alejandro Oms, Silver King,

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are also giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.

Oms does not score that well in my All-star based system. He has a nice-prime pre-1930 injury, but a number of other OF candidates also have nice primes, and the 1920's context must also be taken into account.
   60. Paul Wendt Posted: September 29, 2007 at 02:53 AM (#2549299)
Not a good week (so far) to be a Mets fan. But ya gotta bee-lieve!!!!!!!!!!!!

And now a bad weekend, so far. Remember Tug McGraw is a Phillies hero too.

> 37. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – ...

danb, if you'll check the 2003 results, you might find less motivation for writing out this explanation. (Not that it changes anything the ballot counters care about.)

danb only edits that numeral every year
   61. Paul Wendt Posted: September 29, 2007 at 03:12 AM (#2549423)
57. KJOK Posted: September 28, 2007 at 05:22 PM (#2548322)
[no content quoted]

KJOK/Kevin is no longer the quintessential peak voter, as I have recently described him speaking of the project with centennial perspective. (See "Kirby Puckett")
   62. Rob_Wood Posted: September 29, 2007 at 03:06 PM (#2549740)
2005 ballot from this career voter (low replacement level):

1. Wade Boggs - 4th best 3B ever behind Schmidt, Mathews, and Brett
2. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
3. Graig Nettles - super fielder; I am surprised by his lack of support
4. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/1 year minor lg credit)
5. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career
6. Tony Perez - good career though he was barely an adequate 3B defensively
7. Bob Elliott - good 3B mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
8. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct, with minor league and wwii credit
9. Andre Dawson - very difficult to place; depends on your view of his defense
10. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career (similar to Perez)
11. Reggie Smith - boost from center field play and japan
12. Chuck Klein - very good peak and career (even after adjusting for park)
13. Rabbit Maranville - better career than most realize (with credit for 1918)
14. Pie Traynor - was so overrated he is now underrated
15. Bus Clarkson - everybody should give him another good look
16-20 Hack Wilson, Jack Clark, Luis Aparicio, Tommy Leach, Bret Saberhagen

Not voting for Dick Redding (around 50th), Pete Browning (around 100th),
Kirby Puckett (around 100th), Alejandro Oms (around 50th), and Bucky Walters (around 75th).
   63. Chris Cobb Posted: September 29, 2007 at 03:30 PM (#2549755)
2005 Ballot

I have now fully incorporated the findings of Dan R’s WAR for players from 1900 to the present, except for the 1950s. (I’ve left that decade for last because the only borderline candidate from that decade is Don Newcombe, and Dan R’s work won’t affect his numbers.) I am now reviewing my 19th-century rankings. My measures—career, total peak, and peak rate—have not changed, but I am looking at those measures in WAR as well as in WARP and WS. Because I believe WAR calculates value more reliably than the other systems because it sets replacement level properly, I am weighting WAR’s results as 50% of the total, with WARP and WS getting 25% each. For pitchers, I am still relying on my homegrown win shares and WARP1, though I am starting to think about integrating Joe Dimino’s PA to be a counterpart for pitchers of Dan’s WAR.

Using career, total value above average, and peak rate in the three systems, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value) and then integrate the decades into a combined list. Adding WAR into my system has enabled me to set a consistent historical scale. The in-out line at present for position players is about 240; for pitchers it is about 225. It will probably drop towards 235/220 as we move forward. Establishing this consistent scale and noting the different in/out line for pitchers and position players has led to considerable juggling in this year’s rankings.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade (old system)
Total = result of new system
Est. Total = result of old system scaled to fit new system

1. Wade Boggs (n/e). Total = 383.48. Great, great player, probably underrated by the average fan. Just a hair behind George Brett and a little behind Eddie Mathews, he is easily the fourth best third baseman of all time. Among players eligible as of 2005, I have him around 50-55 all time. A full accounting for baserunning might drop him a bit lower in the all-time rankings, but not in the third base list.
2. Alejandro Oms (3) Est. Total = 260.37. Oms has a long, strong primes without a great peak, like most of the top candidates in my backlog pool. People have been placing their top backlogger in their personal rankings. Oms is mine, and he is around 165. When everyone is eligible through 2007, he’ll be at about 170.
3. Tommy John (4). Total = 251.42. He doesn’t have a great peak, but his 12-14 year prime is about as good as any eligible pitcher’s, and he adds another 4-6 good years on top of that, which is quite extraordinary. He is the Jake Beckley of pitchers, and he ranks about where Beckley ranked before his election.
4. Rabbit Maranville (5) Total = 256.67. An all-time great defensive shortstop who hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. Using WAR moderates how well he does in my system, but applying my system to WAR still shows him as quite worthy.
5. Buddy Bell (6). Total = 255.29. Better than I realized. Both WARP and WS love his defense, and he’s on the good side of the in-out line by both metrics in my system. Very similar to Nettles, but his defensive excellence appears to have lasted longer. My system’s use of WAR shows exactly the same closeness between Bell and Nettles, though it causes them to move up, as a pair, in the overall rankings.
6. Graig Nettles (7). Total = 254.18. Great defender, decent hitter for a long time.
7. Dave Bancroft (8). Total = 253.25. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
8. Luis Tiant (9). Total = 240.33. My system likes his effectiveness, even though he was not especially durable for his time. His durability in the early 1970s may have been affected by his pitching in an extreme hitter’s park.
9. Reggie Smith (10) Total = 243.15. Fully incorporating Dan R’s WAR into my system from 1960-present brings Smith up onto my ballot. Never had dominating seasons because his batting and fielding peaks are separate and he was out of the lineup a lot, but he never had a bad year, either.
10. Andre Dawson (11). Total = 249.88. Perhaps overrated in my system, but he was a good to great player for sixteen years, 1977-92, which gives him a truly outstanding career. He was not quite as good as Bobby Bonds over their twelve-year primes, but he wasn’t far off their value, and the additional four prime years put him ahead.
11. Bob Johnson (12). Total = 242.16. As good as Medwick, better than Averill among his contemporaries. With Dan R’s WAR included in my system, it becomes clearer that Johnson belongs in the HoM.
12. Bobby Bonds (13) Total = 241.03. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.
13. Leroy Matlock. (68) Est. Total = 237.9. I’m not ranking quite as highly as his numbers indicate I should (I’m putting pitchers 5-10 above their listed totals, generally, to equalize them with position players) because players for whom I have numbers in only one system (in this case, MLE win shares) seem to place a little high. I am with Eric Chalek in my support for Matlock, however.
14. Bret Saberhagen. (n/e). Total = 229.43. The best starting pitcher during the second half of the 1980s not named Clemens. A hair better overall, I think, than Stieb, whom we have already elected. Saberhagen’s case is weakened by his fragility, which kept his career innings low and kept him from putting any of his best seasons back to back. On the plus side, however, he has several truly great years, and he was almost always a highly effective pitcher by rate. BP has him at a 3.57 DERA in 2451 adjusted innings. Koufax is at 3.49 in 2239. Ed Walsh is at 3.58 in 2989. Lefty Gomez, by contrast, is at 3.98 in 2533. Ron Guidry is at 3.83 in 2274. Gomez and Guidry are not serious candidates, but Saberhagen should be. Stieb was elected with a 3.89 DERA in 2754 adj. innings, though he, like Koufax has a strong consecutive peak. Concerns about lots of near contemparies being better are not unjustified, but I’ve done enough preliminary analysis to be comfortable making the case that Saberhagen at least belongs in the high backlog.
15. Bus Clarkson (12). Total = 239.97. Lots of discussion of his new MLEs has ended with his value looking about like it did before the revision, in my view. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him a significant edge over Perez.

2005 Off-Ballot. My pHoM in/out line is right around here at the moment. (I still don’t have a firmly worked out pHoM, but I’m getting closer.)

16. Dave Concepcion (16). Total = 238.22. Whether he’ll eventually get a vote from me depends on who gets voted in from the backlog, but he is definitely just over my own in-out line.
17. Tommy Leach (18). Total = 237.65. Fine player for a long time. Andrew Siegel’s brief analysis of his case is excellent, and Dan R’s war2 shows that his play in relatively high SD leagues was still very valuable, as does Joe Dimino’s PA analysis using Dan’s numbers. He slips a little bit with WAR added into the system, though. Looking at the numbers across decades, I’ve decided that I have to drop him off my ballot into my high backlog. I still think he’s a solid candidate, though, and I hope he will eventually win election. I like him a lot better than many players we are on the verge of electing.
18. Jimmy Ryan (20). Est. Total = 244.8. The best of the remaining 1890s outfielders. Career shape is a lot like Andre Dawson’s, actually. I’ve moved him up this year, and the numbers would have him on my ballot, but I don’t fully trust them yet. My review of the nineteenth century has started with pre-1893 pitchers. 1890s outfielders will be next.
19. Gavvy Cravath (21). Total = 237.57. Not as well-rounded as Oms, Smith, Dawson, or Bonds. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Discussion of his case over the years has made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years as gadfly argued some time ago, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia.
20. Norm Cash (22). Total = 237.23 A dark-horse candidate, but the best remaining position player from the 1960s.
   64. Chris Cobb Posted: September 29, 2007 at 03:31 PM (#2549756)
21. Bret Butler (19). Total = 236.16. I discovered a small accounting error in my spreadsheets for Butler, so that drops him to a more intuitively suitable ranking, and I no longer have to go against my own numbers in keeping him off my ballot. Still, he’s very close to HoM quality.
22. Jim McCormick (17). Est. Total = 225.50. I had written him off, but a careful review of the numbers demands his placement in the high backlog. I now see him as belonging in the group of 1880s pitchers with Galvin, Keefe, and Clarkson. He was the #1 pitcher in baseball from 1879-82. After that, he was sometimes an elite pitcher and never a bad one. He slips just a little bit this year as I continue to fine-tune my analysis of 1880s pitchers. He could rise onto my ballot, along with Grimes just below, if I find that I am underrating pitchers a little bit.
23. Burleigh Grimes (23). Total = 224.18. Had a strong 14 year prime, in which he was a huge workhorse, but his value before and after his prime was minimal. He drops this year mostly because I have finished revamping my system for the twentieth century, so his relative position is clearer (and lower) than it was. Just below the current in/out line in my system, but he wouldn’t be a bad choice.
24. Ron Cey (24). Total = 235.52. System revamp moves him up a little. A smidge better than Ken Boyer, but his ballot-timing was worse.
25. Johnny Pesky (25). Total = 234.87. WAR highlights the strength of his peak. The best unelected major-leaguer of the 1940s.
26. Phil Rizzuto (26). Total = 233.58. Like several other shortstops, he leaps up in my rankings when WAR is included.
27. Lee Smith (28). Total = 222.7. I have Smith as the #4 relief pitcher among eligibles through 2003, trailing only HoMers Wilhelm, Gossage, and Fingers. Eckersley ranks ahead of him as a hybrid, and we can begin by this time to speculate about Rivera and Hoffman, who, if they sustain their current excellence, will pass Smith and merit induction. John Franco might pass Smith also, but I haven’t run numbers on him.
28. George Van Haltren (29). Est. Total = 231.32. A step behind Jimmy Ryan. A strong leadoff hitter. His defense in centerfield looks to have been a bit weak.
29. Tony Mullane (27). Est. total = 220.94. The second-best remaining 1880s candidate. A huge star in the AA, he was an effective two-way player, also. This placement does not include hold-out credit. He’s back in the rankings not because of Dan R’s work, but because reviewing Pete Browning’s case led me to look at the 1880s again, and I realized I had lost track of Mullane and a few other players from that decade. His rise hasn’t been as spectacular as McCormick’s, however.
30. Davy Force (30). Est. Total = 231.09. Great NA peak, and a long period of defensive excellence when that meant a great deal. Back on my radar from the 19th century review.
31. Ken Singleton (31). Total = 230.61. Remains ahead of Staub and Perez among 1970s bats. His fine performance in my study of high-peak hitters didn’t hurt him in my estimation.
32. Frank Tanana (32). Total = 226.42. Nice but not world-beating peak, and most of his career was truly undistinguished. I think my system overrates him a little, so I have him a bit below where his numbers indicate he should be.
33. Herman Long (33). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts. Dan R’s numbers on Long are not encouraging, so he slips a bit his year. May move considerably up or down when I review the 1890s more thoroughly.
34. Dick Redding (34). % = 1.00. Needs new MLEs, which I will do, someday. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Urban Shocker and Don Newcombe.
35. Rusty Staub (35). Total = 229.38. Adding WAR brings Staub to a spot in my rankings that seems more intuitively correct, countering the inflation of his value by the low replacement levels of WS and WARP. His profile is a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, but I think Ryan’s is more meritorious because it was harder to put up a long career in the 1890s than in the 1970s.
36. Bruce Sutter (36). Total = 219.63. A lit bit behind Lee Smith.
37. Ron Guidry (37). Total = 218.85. Great peak. I don’t know why the peak pitching voters aren’t giving him any support. I’d take him, on peak, over either Bucky Walters or Lefty Gomez. I’m inclined to move him up, but more study is needed.
38. Bill Monroe (38). % = .9922
39. Carlos Moran (39). This is a very preliminary placement, pending the completion of my study of him and a further look at Bill Monroe, whose case has also been reopened by new statistical analysis. Moran is in the neighborhood of Tommy Leach, Monroe, and Johnny Evers. I have Leach somewhat ahead (and on ballot) due to better career value, so Moran’s initial placement is halfway between Monroe and Evers. I hope to have him more definitely placed before we catch up to the present
40. Jim Kaat (40). Total = 220.85. Addition of WAR to the 1960s position players around him affects Kaat’s relative standing almost not at all.
41. Wilbur Wood (41). Total = 220.6. Should have been ranked years ago, but I had overlooked him in my lists. Highly effective as a reliever and as a starter, just not quite for long enough. A bit surprised no peak voters are supporting him.
42. Rick Reuschel (42). Total = 220.18. I still don’t see what Joe sees, but when I integrate his Pennants Added into my system, Reuschel will surely rise. The only question is how far.
43. Toby Harrah (43). Total = 228.38. WAR foregrounds the value of Harrah’s hitting at shortstop during the 1970s, when few shortstops could hit at all.
44. Bucky Walters (44). Total = 217.92. Recalibration brings him into my rankings, but he’s still about 15 pitchers down in my rankings. Nice peak, but really, he was no better than average outside those four great years. Jim McCormick has a nice peak, too, and he was better outside that peak. So too was Ron Guidry. There are a number of better pitching choices out there.
45. Kiki Cuyler (45). Total = 227.59. I should have had him in my rankings long ago; the system revision prompts me to make the move.
46. Dom Dimaggio (46). Total = 227.5 Has dropped a bit relative to the 1940s infielders. Still a fine player.
47. Mark Langston. Total = 216.78. A consistently strong pitcher, durable and effective. Won more than his stats would indicate he should have, given his run support, defensive, support, and pitching quality. Luck or savvy? Or good relief support?
48. Chet Lemon (47). Total = 226.67. If we are going to take seriously the rise in the importance of centerfield defense after 1970, candidates like Lemon ought to benefit.
49. Tony Perez (48). Total 226.35. The WAR perspective drops Perez considerably. His peak isn’t special, and his later career has very little value.
50. Don Newcombe (49). % = .9886. He has probably slipped too far down. When I apply Dan R’s numbers to the 1950s, that will lead to a more accurate ranking for Newcombe. My view of him as a bit below the in-out line includes MiL credit and war credit.
51. Urban Shocker (50). Total = 215.43. Need to work out WW1 credit for him, though I don’t see that it will get him over the all-time in/out line.
52. Vern Stephens (51). Total = 225.14
53. Dick Bartell (52). Total = 223.54
54. 55. Jose Cruz (54). Total = 222.37.
55. Gene Tenace (55). Total = 221.37. WAR shows him in a good light, making him the #1 catcher in my rankings at present.
56. Kirby Puckett (56). Total = 221.37.
57. Joe Tinker (57). Total = 221.18. Slips with WAR evaluation, which raises replacement level for the shortstops of the aughts. But he doesn’t slip as much as Johnny Evers, who has dropped out of the rankings list.
58. Bert Campaneris (58). Total = 220.9.
59. Tommy Bond (59). Est. Total = 210.24. He was the top pitcher of the late 1870s, but that was almost by default. Jim Devlin was a lot better but had the gambling issues, and the 6-team NL was missing a lot of the best players. If we were electing 300 players through 2007, instead of 231, he could be elected, but we’re not.
   65. Chris Cobb Posted: September 29, 2007 at 03:32 PM (#2549757)
60. Dale Murphy (60). Total = 220.31. WAR brings out how little value Murphy added outside his peak. He was a great player for five years out of six, but the rest of his career wasn’t worth much.
61. Bob Elliott (61). Total = 219.49.
62. Fred Lynn (62). Total = 219.38. Like Butler and Lemon, WAR raises him in my view.
63. Lave Cross (63). % = .9709
64. George Burns (64). Total = 217.75
65. Hugh Duffy (65) % = .9686
66. Ben Taylor (66) % = .9667
67. Fred Dunlap (67) Est. Total = 217.2 Sole position player from the 1880s in my top 70.
68. Charlie Hough (68). Total = 207.2. Reweighting of pitchers brings him into my rankings.
69. Jim Whitney (n/r). Total = 207.07. My review of 19th-century players brings him in to the rankings. FWIW, I like him better than Caruthers, though I haven’t reviewed my analysis of Caruthers yet. Their careers were the inverses of one another. Whitney consistently pitched for bad teams with often terrible defenses, while Caruthers consistently pitched for excellent teams with often brilliant defenses. All of Whitney’s talent only served to keep him from having a terrible record, where Caruthers similar talent served to give him one of the best winning percentages of all time.
70. George Foster (69). Total = 216.65. A better peak than Dave Parker.
71. Buzz Arlett (70). % = .9602
72. Jack Clark (71). Total = 214.98
73. Mickey Welch (72). Est Total = 204.35. 300 wins brings him back onto the radar. I’m not convinced we yet have a good measurement of pitching value for the 1880s. McCormick, Mullane, and Welch all might be worthy, but then again, they might not. Welch needs a win-based assessment to get into the discussion, because his component stats don’t look like much. But the wins aren’t just a product of run support or fielding support. Maybe someday we’ll truly understand the 1880s game . . .
74. Tony Lazzeri (73). Total = 213.33.
75. Jim Rice (74). Total = 213.05
76. Cy Seymour (75). Total = 212.11

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Three of the returning top 10 are on my ballot: Oms, Dawson, and Johnson.

Seven of the returning top ten are not on my ballot, though several are close. Redding and Walters are not the starting pitcher most deserving of support, nor are Cravath, Puckett, or Perez the most deserving hitters, though they would not be awful choices. Browning and Duffy would be mistakes.

In general, I think the electorate is undervaluing long-career, high-defense infielders who lack the gaudy win share seasonal totals that win the admiration of peak voters. But win shares seriously undervalues these players because (1) its batting replacement level is WAY too low, so players get too much “showing up credit,” which is easier for outfielders to accrue than infielders and (2) its range of fielding values is too compressed, so that excellent fielding is undervalued. This infielder group is most disadvantaged by this mistake, so my ballot is filling up with players of this type, as I wait for a seismic shift in the electorate. More detailed comments on the returning top 10 left off my ballot follow.

Pete Browning. Est. Total = 188.06. My review of his case has not convinced me that he is worthy of election, but I see how voters who have different views of merit have reasons to rank him highly. Uncertainties about what created value in the 1880s game make virtually any position arguable, though many voters are placing too little weight on the evidence of weak league quality. Not that it matters, but in researching Browning I learned that he was once picked off of first by the pitcher – unassisted! I can’t imagine that a detailed accounting of his baserunning would help his case . . . The best comp for Pete Browning from the 1980s, as my system sees it, is Pedro Guerrero.

Kirby Puckett. See #57 above. Has some decent arguments in his favor.

Tony Perez. See #49 above.

Dick Redding. See #34 above.

Bucky Walters. See #44 above.

Hugh Duffy. He looks a lot like Cy Seymour to me, and Cy Seymour isn’t drawing so much HoM support. Ranks 66th at present.

Other New Eligibles Meriting Comment:

Tony Phillips. Total = 202.9. It’s hard to find an exact match for him among position players, possibly because he was the very rare utility player who was good enough to start regularly but never really settled at a position. Craig Biggio lite? My system sees him as being similar in value to players like Sal Bando and Thurman Munson, but their career shapes are not like his at all. He’s good enough that it wouldn’t surprise me to seem him getting a few votes from people whose system he fits well, like Bando and Munson have, but his odd career path may work against him there. He’s the first position player with a peak in the 1990s I have evaluated, so my assessment of him isn’t as firm as it might be. I could see him getting ranked in my top 75 if he shows well against 1990s competition, but he’s never going to be in contention for a ballot spot.

Darryl Strawberry. Total = 162.68. What might have been.

Gary Gaetti. Total = 140.52. A very poor man’s Graig Nettles. Had a couple of all-star caliber seasons in the late 1980s, and was pretty much average or below average for the rest of his twenty-year career. I was surprised at how weak his career was overall. Tim Wallach was quite a bit better than he was.

Chili Davis. Total = 140.025. A little short of Harold Baines. A good player for a long time, a lot like Gaetti, though their strengths were quite different.
   66. SWW Posted: September 29, 2007 at 09:18 PM (#2550250)
There promises to be a lot of good baseball on Sunday, so I don’t want to spend it staring at this ballot. Yay Cubs, hang on Phils, go Rockies! Let’s play ball.

<u>2005 Ballot</u>
1) Wade Anthony Boggs
So we’ll be having chicken at this year’s HOM banquet. A friend of mine told me, “all he did was hit.” To which I replied, “He certainly did.” I could have done without the horseback ride at Yankee Stadium, but an easy top pick. 37th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 60th on Bill James Top 100. 80th on SABR Top 100. 85th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 95th on Sporting News Top 100.New York Times Top 100.
2) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
My white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. I heartily encourage people to review his case. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
The closer Tony gets to the top of my ballot, the more skeptical I become of his position there. I’m a career guy, and his career numbers are typical of a guy I would stump for, but it feels awfully flat. For the moment, I’m going to take stats over gut feelings, since that’s the point of this project. But I’m not entirely comfortable with this placement, which tells me I’m missing something, so it could change. 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
4) Kirby Puckett
I know he’s considered overrated, but I’m still a little surprised more aren’t eager to join his bandwagon. Writers tend to overstate his career, overusing words like “stocky” and “fireplug”. But the man put up the numbers, with 6 Top 10 AL Win Shares seasons, and probably could have accumulated more (although I haven’t factored that in here). Also, if you’re like me and you ever ordered a McDonald’s Puck Pack, you’re still trying to burn that fat off. Sheesh. 86th on Sporting News Top 100. 95th on SABR Top 100. 98th on Bill James Top 100.
5) Dale Bryan Murphy
A pleasant surprise. Similar in some ways to Hugh Duffy, in the peak-heavy nature of his career. A lot more of a prime, though, with 6 appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares. New York Times Top 100.
6) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
Finally split up Cepeda and Perez. The biggest factor right now in my evaluation of Cepeda is the arrival on the ballot of Don Mattingly. They’re closer in merit than I realized, which is dragging them toward each other.
7) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. A much more definitive impact on his team and era than someone like, oh, Dave Stieb. I renew my suspicion that the ghost of Ray Chapman has shrouded his achievements.
8) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
9) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
10) Andre Nolan Dawson – “Hawk”
Compares very favorably to Whitaker, and edges out Doyle at his position. I still see a very flat career arc, but it’s a very strong one nonetheless, so I can’t really justify leaving him off. 72nd on Ken Shouler Top 100.
11) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
12) David Gene Parker – “Cobra”
If I’ve learned anything through my association with this project, it’s that while I’m a career voter, the importance of having a strong prime has grown a great deal in my estimation. It’s that thinking that keeps Parker on my ballot, and while I’m always reviewing the matter, I’m feeling alright about this placement. There’d be no doubt, if only he’d laid off the Colombian marching powder.
13) Donald Arthur Mattingly – “Donnie Baseball”
A huge shock. Considering the toll taken by injuries, he has really impressive seasonal numbers, including ink. Compares quite favorably with Perez and Cepeda, which makes me think that I either have them too high or Mattingly too low. We’re certainly not hurting for first basemen, he does far better than I anticipated. Damn Yankees.
14) Graig Nettles – “Puff”
I remember him as a very consistent third baseman; no Schmidt or Brett, but significantly better than, say, Carney Lansford. I’m a little surprised he placed this high, but the numbers point to a strong career. Similar to Darrell Evans, who I thought went in kind of fast.
15) Alejandro Oms – “El Caballero”
Well, whaddaya know? Comparing him to my support way back when for guys like Richie Ashburn and Willard Brown, he ranks at least this high. I have him in a cluster with some other peakish guys, like Duffy and Klein. Like so many of the top Negro Leaguers, I feel like there’s still a lot to learn; sure would be nice if the Cooperstown people would help out with that.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
And Pete’s still here. A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s might be better than Jimmy Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. In years past, he’s finished behind such luminaries as Van Haltren, Leach, Duffy, Walters, Redding, and Jimmy Ryan, and I’m not convinced that he deserves induction ahead of them.
Robert Lee Johnson – “Indian Bob”
Comes out similar to Heinie Manush, who I think is underrated, but still not quite ballot-worthy. So Bob falls short.
William Henry Walters – “Bucky”
I’ve got a lot of pitchers ahead of him. In particular, I have him around Tiant and John, who are good, but not quite there. I like him better than I liked Stieb, so there’s that.
   67. AJMcCringleberry Posted: September 30, 2007 at 12:01 AM (#2550498)
PHOM - Boggs, Matlock, Saberhagen

1. Wade Boggs - Pretty good.

2. Andre Dawson - 119 OPS+, 314 steals, over 10000 PAs, excellent defender in center. 350 Win Shares, 110 WARP3, his peak in centerfield was excellent. Basically I see him as Perez or Staub, but with more defensive and baserunning value.

3. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

4. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

5. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career.

6. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

7. Leroy Matlock - MLE's show a pretty good 3000 innings and a nice peak.

8. Dale Murphy - Great hitting centerfielder. Excellent peak from '82-'87.

9. Bret Saberhagen - Similar to Trout. Good peak. May have been the MVP in '89.

10. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

11. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

12. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

13. Kirby Puckett - Good hitting, good fielding centerfielder. Not a long career, but a very good peak.

14. Graig Nettles - Excellent defender, good hitter over a long career. Brooks Robinson-lite.

15. Frank Tanana - Pitched a long time and was average or better for most of it. Similar to Tommy John, but had better peak.

16. Lee Smith
17. Buddy Bell
18. Ken Singleton
19. Bobby Bonds
20. Hugh Duffy
21. George Van Haltren
22. Ceasar Cedeno
23. Dave Parker
24. Brett Butler
25. Vada Pinson
26. Tommy John
27. Norm Cash
28. Lance Parrish
29. Elston Howard
30. Tommy Leach
31. Pete Browning
32. Bus Clarkson
33. Bob Elliott
34. Ron Cey
35. Marvin Williams
36. Dave Concepcion
37. Harry Hooper
38. Luis Tiant
39. Alejandro Oms
40. Buzz Arlett
41. Don Mattingly
42. Orlando Cepeda
43. Gil Hodges
44. Burleigh Grimes
45. Reggie Smith
46. Jack Clark
47. Jose Cruz
48. Willie Davis
49. Fielder Jones
50. Dick Redding
51. Rick Reuschel
52. Pie Traynor
53. Dennis Martinez
54. Jim Kaat
55. Gene Tenace
56. George Foster
57. Wally Berger
58. Fred Lynn
59. Vern Stephens
60. Dick Bartell
61. Ernie Lombardi
62. Toby Harrah
63. Lou Brock
64. Tony Phillips
65. Red Schoendienst
66. George Burns
67. Bert Campaneris
68. Rabbit Maranville
69. Lave Cross
70. Cy Seymour
   68. Brent Posted: September 30, 2007 at 08:15 PM (#2551967)
2005 Ballot:

I’ll start with a note on the statistics that I present in my comments. Like some other voters, I have a system that assigns points for each season. The system is peak/prime oriented—1 or 2 points for an “average” season, about 10 to 20 for an all-star season, maybe 25 or 30 for an MVP season. A spot on my ballot requires about 140 points. Since the seasons worth 5 or more points are the ones that matter in my system, for my ballot comments I’ve decided to summarize the performance of players during those seasons.

1. Wade Boggs – Over 12 seasons (1983-91, 93-95) he averaged 150 games (adjusting to 162-gm schedule), with an OPS+ of 141, 2 Gold Glove awards at 3B. Agree with previous voters who ranked him as # 4 third baseman to date; top quartile of the HoM. (PHoM 2005)

2. Kirby Puckett – Over 10 seasons (1985-92, 94-95) he averaged 156 games (162-adj), with an OPS+ of 128; 8 of those seasons were in center field, where he won 6 Gold Glove awards. Hit well with runners in scoring position (.322/.383/.496) and in post-season (.309/.361/.536). (2002)

3. Ken Singleton – Over 8 seasons (1973, 75-81) he averaged 155 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 149. (1991)

4. Phil Rizzuto – Over 8 seasons (1941-42, 47, 49-53) he averaged 154 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 100 and 15 SB with a 73% success rate; an excellent defensive shortstop; military credit for age 25-27 seasons. (1967)

5. Alejandro Oms – Over 9 seasons (1921-29), his MLE OPS+ was 138; a good defensive center fielder; also some credit for earlier undocumented play. (1967)

6. Hugh Duffy – Over 10 seasons (1890-99) he averaged 157 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 124; an excellent defensive outfielder; hit .489 with 16 RBIs in 11 post-season games. (1931)

7. Sal Bando – Over 10 seasons (1968-76, 78) he averaged 157 games with an OPS+ of 128. (1987)

8. Carlos Morán – Please check out the analysis on the Carlos Morán thread. (1998)

9. Bobby Bonds – Over 10 seasons (1969-75, 77-79) he averaged 154 games with an OPS+ of 134 and 50 SB with a 74% success rate; 3 Gold Glove awards in right field. (1987)

10. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (1958)

11. Elston Howard – Over 5 seasons (1958, 61-64) he averaged 132 games (118 as catcher) (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 132; an excellent defensive catcher; credit for several minor league and military seasons (especially 1954). (1977)

12. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. (1958)

13. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 117 DERA+, 74 OPS+. (1966)

14. Johnny Pesky – Over 7 seasons (4 at SS, 3 at 3B; 1942, 46-51) he averaged 151 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 111; very good defensively at both positions; military credit for age 23-25 seasons. (2005)

15. Bill Monroe – See analysis on Bill Monroe thread. (2004)

Near misses:

16–20. Redding (1976), Saberhagen (2005), Pérez (1994), Cravath (1976), Long
21–25. Leach (1932), Nettles, Grimes (1940), Mattingly, Lundy
26-30. Van Haltren (1997), Castillo, Parker, Newcombe, Quisenberry

Other consensus top 10:

Pete Browning – During his 10-year prime, he was in the lineup for only 83% of his team’s games. When Browning wasn’t available, his at bats went to players the caliber of Lou Sylvester, Farmer Weaver, and John Strick. I can see forgiving some in-season durability issues when a player has the career bulk to offset it, but in Browning’s case those 10 years are all he’s got.

Bob Johnson – WWII years need to be discounted. There are several better outfield candidates available.

Andre Dawson – I’m not a career voter.

Dick Redding – # 16.

Other new arrivals:

Bret Saberhagen – # 17. I agree with the comparisons to Dizzy Dean and Bucky Walters, both of whom I support. That’s enough to make my PHoM, but (absent an expanded ballot) not enough to make my ballot.
   69. Patrick W Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:26 AM (#2552446)
Langston almost makes it 3 for 3 rookies making the P-Hall this year, but don’t look for his name below. Even so, this year marks a first – I’ve had P-Hall’ers drop off, but I don’t believe I’ve had to honor one without also giving him ballot points.

Every time San Diego has made the playoffs, they have either lost to St. Louis or gone to the Series. So…if they can survive Monday in Denver, watch out National League! Also, CLE PHI CHI SD or COL would continue the string of different WS winners this decade. I buck all these trends and say Col over SD, Chic. beats Phila. in 6, Bost. over Clev. in 6, Boston wins in 4.

1. Wade Boggs (n/a), Bost. (A) 3B (’82-’99) (2005) – Enough defense (which surprised me at being above average, as I’d never really heard anything about before) to start above Mathews on the 3B list. Top 25% HOMer.
2. Frank Tanana (2), Cal. – Detr. (A) SP (’73-’93) (2000) – Sandy Koufax peak (49.7 bonus WARP for Sandy’s peak vs. 46.9 for Frank), plus played for 10 additional years of average / below avg. Here is either the player that breaks my system or a vastly underrated pitcher by the rest of you. Only player in my top 100 who is not HOM (or going to be in ’04).
3. Tony Perez (4), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) (1994) – Completely different BA/OB/SG breakdown, but the sum of his offensive and defensive value to a team makes him look like a twin of Willie Keeler to me.
4. Luis Tiant (5), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
5. Lee Smith (6), Chic. – St.L. (N) RP (’81-’97) (2003) – Goose had enough peak to start Lee as the 3rd best reliever.
6. Andre Dawson (7), Mont. – Chic. (N), CF / RF (’76-’96) (2002) – He ranks as substantially better on both offense and defense than the Rice-Parker crowd that he is usually lumped together with on the HOF ballots. Even if his ’87 MVP belongs to the No. 1 guy on this ballot, they both are worthy of the HOM.
7. Tommy John (8), Chic.– N.Y. (A) SP (’63-’89) (1997) – If you can maintain average for a quarter century, that’s just a different definition of greatness.
8. Jim Kaat (9), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
9. Rusty Staub (10), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) (1996) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
10. Rick Reuschel (11), Chic. – S.F. (N) SP (’72-’90) (1996) – On the other hand, if Reuschel is going in first ballot, then it probably is a weak ballot. Nearly equals the value of Kaat in 700 fewer innings.
11. Jack Morris (12), Detr. (A) SP (’78-’94) (2001) – I like my system of discounting the pitchers for their “effort” at the bat, but Morris points out how I need to somehow discount the AL pitchers in the DH era. Morris is nearly equal to Reuschel in my system because of Rick’s lack of prowess at the plate. By eyeball, Jack might drop 2-3 spots because of this issue; he’s still ballot-worthy until I resolve the discrepancy.
12. Graig Nettles (13), N.Y. (A) 3B (’69-’88) (1997) – How can the Hall not find enough 3B to honor?
13. Alejandro Oms (--), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – The Cuban resume still causes me grief, but enough of you have put him in the top ten that I have to rethink my second-guessing. I won’t slot him immediately to my first-guess slot just yet.
14. Charlie Hough (14), L.A. (N) – Tex. (A) SP (’70-’94) (2004) – Charlie, Dutch. Dutch, Charlie.
15. Bret Saberhagen (n/a), K.C. (A) SP (’84-’99) (2005) – Just below Hough, just above Leonard (who drops as a result).

--. Jerry Koosman (--),N.Y. (N), SP (’68-’84) (2005) – Career barely surpasses the peak advantages of Langston, Lolich – just enough to win the prize.

Pete Browning – Much closer to the ballot than anyone else listed below, but even he’s only approx. low 20s-high 30s.
Kirby Puckett – Equal in value to Magee (HOM), Hooper (P-Hall), and Mattingly. If Puckett had this career in the ‘10s-‘20s, he’d be in the Hall. In the ‘80s, it’s just way too common.
Bob Johnson (1985) – It’s rather sad when I have to explain why players in the P-Hall aren’t on the ballot. Would you elect some of the pitchers above already?
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Bucky Walters (1961) – He’s just as good as Leonard, Trout, Koosman and Lolich.

Two players were in last year’s top ten, AND in my top 15 this year!
   70. Andrew M Posted: October 01, 2007 at 03:25 AM (#2552483)
2005 Ballot

1. Wade Boggs. I suppose the only real question here is where he rates among all-time 3B. I’d put him behind Schmidt, Mathews, and Brett, though I can see the argument to place him even higher.

2. Larry Doyle. Arguably the best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. Doyle had a career OPS+ of 126, and was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was the best 2B in the NL by Win Shares for 7 seasons and 2nd best for a couple of others. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. His fielding didn’t seem to bother his contemporary observers as much as it bothers us.

3. Bob Johnson. There are a bunch of OFs clustered in the 300 WS/100 WARP range. Johnson, though, seems slightly more meritorious than the rest: Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. EQA .308 compares favorably to other OF candidates. Also had a good glove.

4. Tommy Bridges. Despite finishing in the AL top 10 in innings five times, he was not much of a workhorse. When he did pitch, he was very good. He finished his career with just fewer than 3,000 IP and his top ERA+ season is 147. He’s also probably missing 360 or so innings from 1944 and 45, and he had six seasons in which his ERA+ was between 140 and 147 (and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL.)

5. Dave Bancroft. Great glove, above average hitter, walked a lot. Had some durability issues, but ended up with over 110 WARP(1) and had a couple of 10+ WARP seasons.

6. Luis Tiant. An odd career. Had the misfortune to have his best season the same year as McLain won 31 games. I’d argue Tiant was the better pitcher that year--though it’s close. Was then injured for a few years before coming back and having several excellent seasons for the Red Sox in the mid 70s.

7. Tommie Leach. Played two important defensive positions well and generated a decent amount of offensive value while doing it.

8. Phil Rizzuto. Great glove, probably not as good a hitter as Bancroft. Missing essentially 4 seasons at age 25-28.

9. Dale Murphy. Posted 4 30+ WS seasons (and 5 10+ WARP) seasons between 1980-1987. Rarely missed a game.

10. George J. Burns. Another guy who rarely missed a game. He also got on base a lot, could field and run, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. It isn’t a stretch to think of him as having been best OF in the NL from 1913-1920.

11. Bucky Walters. Best pitcher in the NL 1939, 1940, perhaps 1941, 1944.

12. Bob Elliott. Best 3B in the NL from 1943-50. Consistently ranked in the top 10 in the NL in WS and OPS+ over that period. Above average glove.

13. Tony Perez. Played about as many games at 3B as Paul Molitor. Hung around long enough to accumulate almost 11,000 PAs, but his rate numbers would look better had he retired at age 35.

14. Urban Shocker. Somewhere in the mix with Bridges, Walters, Stieb, Pierce, et al.

15. Vern Stephens. Big-hitting SS of the 1940s. Had a good defensive reputation while playing. Career was pretty much over by age 30.

Next 12
Addie Joss
Ken Singleton or Reggie Smith
Tommy John
Dick Redding
Alejandro Oms
Dave Concepcion
Bret Saberhagen
Jimmy Ryan
Andre Dawson
Geo. Van Haltren
Johnny Evers

Required disclosures:
Dick Redding. I’ve had him on and off the ballot over the years. I think he’s a solid candidate.
Pete Browning. Too many questions, too many other candidates.
Andre Dawson and Kirby Puckett. I’m much more concerned I’m underrating Reggie Smith than Dawson or Puckett.
Alejandro Oms. I’ve voted for him in the past. I re-read his thread this week, and decided to leave him between 15 and 20 for now.
   71. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 01, 2007 at 05:42 AM (#2552587)
On a personal note, I almost hit a very odd recurrence. The weekend of the 1898 ballot, I traveled down to Philadelphia for the wedding of a family friend. Friday night, I was down there for his brother's wedding - if they'd only waited another 2 months. The other baseball-related bit is that they had the DJ giving score updates - the crowd was a lot happier than I was.

Can't quite bring myself to put Sabes in yet. Boggs, Oms and Tiant make my PHoM.

1. Wade Boggs (new) Eh, I got nothing you don't already know. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Bus Clarkson (3) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. The new MLE’s didn’t boost him that much, but it was enough to move him to the upper reaches of my ballot. (Quick comparison to Sandberg – WS 344 to 346 in 800 fewer PA, OPS+ 123 to 114, 3B/SS to 2B. Even deflating the MLEs a bit, that looks pretty close to me.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

3. Dick Redding (4) Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

4. Bob Johnson (5) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons, plus he got started very late in the bigs, so I will give him at least 1 year of minor league credit. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am, and it appears the era considerations have been a little overblown. Made my PHoM in 1992.

5. Bill Monroe (6) NOT surprised to see I was his Best Friend. The new Cuban translations boost him a slight bit, as we have more evidence for his quality. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Made my PHoM in 1939.

6. Reggie Smith (7) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP doesn’t have that great an opinion of his fielding, all things considered. Made my PHoM in 1995.

7. George Van Haltren (8) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I don't reject all peak arguments, but I'll take his consistency over Duffy's big years. Made my PHoM in 1972.

8. Gavvy Cravath (9) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

9. Tommy Leach (10) Dropped from the top of may ballot because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

10. Phil Rizzuto (11) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940 (I’m not counting it at the moment.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

11. Norm Cash (12) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism), and the fluke year. He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1. Made my PHoM in 2003.

12. Elston Howard (13) If you give him fair credit for being stuck in the Negro Leagues and behind Yogi, he looks like the best catcher candidate on the ballot to me. But I wonder if his early 60s-peak just would have happened 5 years earlier under other circumstances. I admit there’s a fair amount of “What-if-ing” here, but it’s the best guess I can make. Made my PHoM last year.

13. Alejandro Oms (15) He's been very close for me for quite some time, and the arguments in his favor this year help give him the extra push over the line. I agree with the similarities to Johnson, which is a good argument for me. Makes my PHoM this year.

14. Luis Tiant (17) I found it really hard to seperate him from Saberhagen, and I always worry about Shiny New Toy syndrome. So I think they both should be in, but I'm going with the ballot veteran first. Makes my PHoM this year.

15. Bret Saberhagen (new) Not quite as good as Stieb, very comparable to Dean as a peak candidate but just a little better. WARP loves him, he has about 1 point less than Morris (in 1300 fewer innigs) and Grimes (1600)

16. Bobby Bonds (14) A very strong prime candidate, but neither his peak nor career totals really stand out.
17. Ben Taylor (16) Another solid candidate who might have been overlooked.
(17A Max Carey, 17B Rube Foster)
18. Andre Dawson (18) You have to make allowances for a lot of things, but I do think he’s a better career candidate than Staub or Perez. But for a corner OF, he falls just a bit short in my opinion. I took another look comparing him to Dale Murphy, and I think he is definitely a step ahead of him unless you’re a heavy peak guy – it’s not just the stat-padding years (93-96), he’s got 16 years of being good or better, compared to Murphy’s 12.
19. Ron Cey (19) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. He wasn't any worse than Evans, but didn't last as long. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
(19A Charley Jones, 19B Nellie Fox, 19C Sam Thompson)
20. Dizzy Dean (20) Is his peak case really that much weaker than Keller and Kiner? I'm wondering. And with Stieb being a peak/prime guy, is he that much better than Dizzy?
21. Tony Perez (21) He does have a good peak, but his late-70s years aren't much above average. And for a mostly 1B guy, even his peak OPS+s aren’t impressive.
22. Vern Stephens (22) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
23. Bob Elliott (23) He’d been winning the comparison with Cey the past few years, but not this time. They’re really pretty similar, and when you discount for wartime play, he’s behind.
(23A Richie Ashburn, 23B Ralph Kiner)
24. Orlando Cepeda (24) A little ways behind the other 1Bmen. They all have a stronger argument for one angle or another. He did get his career off to a great start, though.
(24A Roger Bresnahan)
25. Don Newcombe (26) Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument.
26. Rusty Staub (27) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Could rank higher. Definitely behind Perez.
(26A Hughie Jennings, 26B George Sisler, 26C Rollie Fingers)
27. Kirby Puckett (28) Yes, some very good years, but his peak doesn't match Murphy's. I can't have him too far ahead of Dale.
28. Ken Singleton (29) Chris’s study gives him a boost, but don’t forget he has a terrible baserunning rep.
29. Bucky Walters (30) Would be higher, but when you consider a wartime discount, his 115 ERA+ really isn’t impressive.
30. Tommy Bridges (38) I think I've been underrating him.

31. Dave Bancroft
32. Pete Browning (32) An outstanding hitter, but a truly awful fielder, and played most of his career in the weaker league. I wouldn't be upset if he got in, but I don't quite see it.
33. Sal Bando
34. Jack Clark
35. Dale Murphy
36. Tony Lazzeri
37. Lou Brock
38. Frank Howard
39. Marvin Williams
40. Bobby Veach
   72. Tiboreau Posted: October 01, 2007 at 06:58 AM (#2552611)
1. 3b Wade Boggs (nc)
2. cf Alejandro Oms (3)—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career, including three statistically undocumented seasons in the Cuban Sugar Leagues before his recorded explosion in performance at age 26.
3. 1b Luke Easter (4)—We know that he had a long career (records of play with top Negro League teams in late ‘30s, early ‘40s and continued to play in the minors until the early ‘60s). We know he had the potential for big play (1948 and, when healthy, ’52, ’56 and ’58). What we don’t know is how well he would have played in the first half of his career, during his twenties. Yet, as we dig deeper into the backlog I find myself more willing to elect a player with a good career who showed the potential for greatness than one with a long career of merely above average play or one with short period of definite greatness during an abbreviated career.
4. sp Bret Saberhagen (nc)—I did not realize how good Saberhagen was when at his best during the ‘80s. I would have him a bit lower, but I feel pitchers deserve more slack when it comes to inconsistency than position players.
5. 3b John McGraw (6)—Two great seasons surrounded by several more excellent yet injury-riddled years while playing a physically demanding (and underrepresented) position in a physically demanding era.
6. sp Dizzy Dean (5)—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
7. sp Leroy Matlock (8)—Had a great peak, including 26 straight wins from ’34 to ’36. In fact, according to the MLEs, Matlock’s peak (and career) was better than Dean’s. However, the difficulties of estimating season-by-season value of Negro League pitchers leads me to place Matlock below Dizzy.
8. cf Dale Murphy (10)—Wally Berger with a few career padding years thrown in. Since the ‘80s appear to be much more difficult to dominate Mr. Clean slips in a bit higher than his 1930s counterpart.
9. sp Urban Shocker (11)—Jumped back on my radar screen due to Joe Dimino’s pitcher numbers. Like the rest, short career but packed in quality seasons for the majority of that time. Similar to Dave Stieb, just a little less career value.
10. 3b Al Rosen (9)—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else, his career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
11. rf Bobby Bonds (12)—Yes, another nice peak, shorter career candidate on my ballot; his peak value a little lower, his career value a little higher than the others. I view him similarly to Jimmy Wynn.
12. c Elston Howard (13)—His peak is slightly better than Bresnahan's, career slightly shorter. Looking over his case again after some discussion during the last election, I feel I was giving him too much pre-MLB credit; it was a few years before his translated MLEs looked good enough to establish notice and I'm not going to give much in terms of blocking credit.
13. ss Johnny Pesky (14)—While I don’t want to give peak credit for war years, I don’t want to eliminate a candidate due to missed time either. Pesky’s WWII service, sandwiched by to 30+ WS seasons, deserves more credit than I gave it in the past, filling out his career value, strengthening his prime
14. rf Ken Singleton (15)—Singleton is one of the players who does it a bit better in one system than another. Going solely by Win Shares I'd have him ahead of Bonds, but by WARP he'd be a below him. I think this is mostly due to WARP's more aggressive stance on the importance of defense, so Bonds takes the upper hand.
15. 3b Ron Cey (ob)—The best ballplayer from those great Dodgers infields. He had a nice peak, although it was nothing earth-shattering, had a nice career, although it wasn’t Ryan-like; however, the combination of the two plus the position is enough to make my ballot.

Required Disclosures:
sp Bucky Walters—He's just off my ballot. It is a nice peak, but a bit inflated due to the decreased competition during the war, and the excellent defense behind him during his peak.
1b\3b Tony Perez—Excellent career value puts him in the consideration set. Decent peak value makes him a ballot contender. A few more years at third would’ve put him on my ballot, but as is he just falls short.
rf\cf Andre Dawson—Another excellent career candidate with a decent peak; the latter is just not enough, considering his position, to make my ballot.
sp Dick Redding—While he had a nice peak, in context it loses its impressiveness, and Cannon Ball Dick played at that level in too few years spread among too many poor seasons in a long career to be on my ballot.
cf\lf Pete Browning—The earliest version of the all-hit, no field candidates eligible, Browning also benefited from the easier competition of a weaker league during baseball’s teething years. After Brent’s AA translations I feel more comfortable with my placement of the Gladiator.
lf Bob Johnson—He did have a nice prime and he does deserve a couple years credit for his play in the PCL, but according to both WS and WARP Indian Bob has peak is just not enough to make up for a short career.
cf Kirby Puckett—A 1980/90s version of Indian Bob Johnson.
   73. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 01, 2007 at 11:18 AM (#2552631)
37 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: yest, Tom D, Eric Chalek, EricC, Mike Webber, Don F, Al Peterson, David Foss, mulder and scully, the Commish, Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Max Parkinson, Dan Rosenheck, Kenn, fra paolo and 'zop.

The election will end at 8 PM EDT tonight and results will be posted at 10.
   74. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 01, 2007 at 11:59 AM (#2552636)
I e-mailed a reminder to all voters who haven't posted a ballot yet.
   75. Ken Fischer Posted: October 01, 2007 at 12:56 PM (#2552655)
2005 Ballot

1-Wade Boggs 394 WS
Another no brainer. Good OPS for a guy seen as a singles hitter but he had some pop. Good black ink numbers for the era he played in.

2-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking. I know…I’m a Van diehard…GVH and Stephens. I just can’t drop them down. They belong.

4-Mickey Welch 354 WS
300+ wins are great in any era.

5-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

6-Craig Nettles 321 WS
Great plays on the big stage. His low career batting average keeps him out of the other hall. He probably stayed around 3 years too long.

7-Andre Dawson 340 WS
Besides being an outstanding player he showed some style when he dared the Cubs into his late 80s contract.

8-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years).

11-Pete Browning 225 WS
A great Players League year shows Pete belongs.

12-Tony Mullane 399 WS
Gray Ink 198. Late in his career won 25 games after the mound was moved. Too bad he was at the end.

13-Tony Perez 349 WS
A career pick for the volume of his work.

14-Alejandro Oms
Oms is one of the top players ever to come out of Cuba. He played from the early 20s to well into the 40s at a high level. He was perhaps overshadowed by some of the other Negro league/Cuban greats of the time.

15-Luis Tiant 256 WS
Luis is a Cuban product of a later era. Comps include HOMers Bunning & Drysdale.

Puckett is 27th and Walters is 49th on my depth chart. I rank Brock, Rice and Parker ahead of Puckett. I’m mainly a career voter and his short career doesn’t do as well in my evaluation. Walters is even farther down on my list for similar reasons.
   76. Mike Webber Posted: October 01, 2007 at 01:25 PM (#2552684)
Thanks for the reminder John!
Mostly Win Shares

1) WADE BOGGS – 394 Win Shares – Much the best of this field.
2) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
3) PHIL RIZZUTO – 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. With a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
4) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
5) George Van Haltren Huge Career, plus short schedule. Even clipping his pitching credit.
6) KIRBY PUCKETT281 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 10 seasons 20+ Win Shares. In the murky centerfield ranking area with Duffy, Van Haltren, Carey, Pinson and well, I’l throw Amos Otis in here too as a Royals fan.
7) SAL BANDO - 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
8) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 25 player at his position.
9) NORM CASH 315 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
10) BRET SABERHAGEN 193 Win Shares, Royal bias on full display. Actually I think he just has the best argument for any pitcher right now.
11) ELSTON HOWARD 203 Win Shares, 1 MVP type season, 4 20 + Win Share seasons, basically he has Thurman Munson’s career despite only having 23 win shares before age 29.
12) KEN SINGLETON 302 win shares, 3 MVP type seasons, 7 20+ win share seasons. Big Seasons sneak him onto the bottom of my ballot.
13) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
14) LUIS TIANT 256 Win Shares – poor timing of his big years.
15) CARL MAYS 256 Win Shares, 2 MVP type seasons, 8 20 + Win share seasons


Bucky Walters – may be penalizing his WW2 pitching too much.

Pete Browning – Heck of a hitter, short seasons, suspect league, suspect fielding, suspect teammate.

Bob Johnson – in the glut of very good outfielders, Cravath, Reggie Smith, Roy White, Murcer, and Dawson.

Dawson is in my top 25, his defense seems to have retroactively been downgraded. Or maybe his bad knees at the end have obscured the image of him in centerfield as a young man.

Gary Gaetti – isn’t he the lifetime leader in Triple Plays for a 3b? I seem to remember that.
   77. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 01, 2007 at 01:26 PM (#2552685)
2005 Ballot

This ballot is very hastily put together. I'm sorry for that, but things have been bonkers since we're redoing our one and only bathroom. Indeed, we had to vacate last night so they can eurathane the floors for the next several days.

Anyway, another chance to drive my consenus score downward....

1. Wade Boggs: Jud Wilson Part 2?

2. Alejandro Oms: I know I’m going against the grain here. I think Oms probably did everything Winfield did over a long career, plus he played a good centerfield for much of it. Oms, in fact, has lots in common with Winfield, including the fact that neither seems to have had a superior peak, that both had a long, wonderful prime, and that both racked up tons of career value. Winfield is a safer, easier choice between them because his career is entirely documented and simple to interpret, but the NgL players have always required some guesswork, and my guess is that they are similar players with the slight advantage of position going to Oms.

3. Wilbur Cooper: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

4. Ken Singleton: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons.

5. Tommy Leach: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

6. Larry Doyle: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time. Few on this ballot can make such a claim to league-wide dominance.

7. Lance Parrish: Let me take a minute here to explain, since I think everyone’s going to jump my ship for this. As explained in his thread, Parrish’s two big knocks are his lack of walks and his fielding. But neither ubersystem sees Parrish as having problematic fielding—to the contrary, they LIKE his glove. We have evidence of his defensive goodness which has been largely ignored in the discussions so far: Parrish hung on for a good while as a regular and semi-regular despite a decline in his hitting—he could not have done so had his defense been as weak as has been said. Which leaves the walks. Well, catchers who play D and hit 300+ homers are still pretty rare, even in today’s HR-happy times. I won’t tell you the lack of walks is illusory, but I will say that Parrish built a lot of value despite the lack of walks, and that value is what I’m looking at. Parrish’s case begins and ends with positional dominance and career length. He was the best catcher of the AL for several years. Even after, he remained a productive regular for several seasons and a good backup even after that. He’s almost as high in my rankings at catcher as Whitaker is in my rankings of 2Bs. Not quite but almost. He’s right below Freehand and Torre. However, he’s more impressive than the guys below him at catcher, where Whitaker’s got plenty of guys breathing down his neck. I think both are HOMers, but their relative rankings are not cast in stone, and I’ll continue to monitor how I feel about it.

8. Leroy Matlock: He’s back. Many years ago now I saw Matlock as the best available pitcher. My consensus scores plummeted…. But in reviewing NgL players, I looked back on his thread, and I don’t really understand why I lost my nerve on him. The MLEs look HOMable, even if you see that 1937 season as a little less than 43 WS. I think we’ve whiffed on him, and that someday when we’ve got more better information, he’ll be one of the “lost” guys that no one talked about who ends up as a HOMer.

9. Bucky Walters: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

10. Hugh Duffy: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a perfectly fine selection, but he’s certainly a borderliner.

11. Gavy Cravath: Nearly as good as Winfield, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into a high ballot placement when the backlog is so jammed.

12. Bus Clarkson: Making his debut on my ballot. In revising my WS routine, it improved his standing, and this placement reflects that. It’s not an exact placement, I’m still working through kinks in the system, but it’s enough to get him on the lower end of my ballot.

13. Sal Bando: Same old, same old here. Good bat, good peak value despite so-so to not-so-good glove.

14. Pie Traynor: He’s extremely close to Bando in value but doin’ it different.

15. Elston Howard: He’s a smidge ahead of Raj for me, and since Tralee is among our newest members….

-Bret Saberhagen: Or SABRhagen if you prefer. HOVG per my system. Just couldn’t keep it together long enough or consistently enough.

-Tony Phillips: We didn’t much talk about the crack bust or about his hot headed temper, but Phillips was a bigtime competitor. He did everything he could to make a team win: hit for power, walk, play anywhere and decently, run, you name it. And Sparky used him amazingly well, fitting him in wherever the team needed to make it better. Maybe he’d had practice with a guy just like Phillips: Pete Rose.

-Darryl Strawberry: Read The Ticket Out, it’s a wonderful explanation of where Darryl came from with insights into why he unraveled. Just an amazing talent, but an equally amazing spiral downward.

-Chili Davis: A meaty stew of power, speed, and walks. If he could have fielded a position after 1990, he’d have had a shot for careerists. Never really had much of a peak, but never much of a trough either.

-Gary Gaetti: I’m not sure how he lasted so long. An ideal Bakerite who never worried his manager over clogging the bases. One of the last players to wear a flapless batting helmet.

-Mark Langston: Sadly remember for two negatives: being traded for RJ and giving up the homer in the 1998 WS. Too bad, a sometimes great hurler who was mostly just above average, but could really bring it from the portside. He and Finely were a might good lefty-lefty duo.

-Willie McGee: A weird player. Had that one year with all those errors, like 16! A split year where he won a batting title. Appeared washed up, then returns as a wonderful fourth OF and stays around a while. Long career, not much peak, but often a fine guy to have in your lineup and in CF.


-Pete Browning: Just off my ballot, and I was probably wrong about his HOMiness previously.

-Dick Redding: I’m not a believer. Those 1920s numbers aren’t pretty. I’d encourage everyone to look back at them again. It’s not pretty at all, and he needs all of them to make it. I’d rather induct Cannonball Adderley.

-Tony Perez: A prime and career that still awaits a great peak.

-Bob Johnson: I dunno, I’m not really taken with him, but WS may underrate him due to his awful teammates. If I used WARP I might be since he’s a prime candidate more than a peak or career guys. On the other hand, he’s got a case for MiL credit. He’s not helped by war discounts, though.

-Andre Dawson: He’s very, very close, in the same general range in both RF and CF that Randolph or Puckett or Fox were at their positions.

-Kirby Puckett: Just not enough peak or career for my tastes. Wonderful CF, hit a bunch, but life happened to him, just as it’s happened to countless others…like Sam Rice, Addie Joss, or Sam Lever.
   78. DavidFoss Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:10 PM (#2552728)
Boggs is an easy pick this year. After that, its tough. I'd like Cravath, McGraw, Doyle or Redding, but the electorate disagrees. :-)

2005 Ballot

1. Wade Boggs -- Overqualified. OBP machine with lots of doubles. One of the top five 3B of all time.
2. Gavvy Cravath -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
3. John McGraw -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
4. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
5. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play. I don't know why his support hasn't held up.
6. Norm Cash -- I have him higher than I had Keith Hernandez. My favorite uninducted bat from the expansion era
7. Bob Elliott -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
8. Mickey Welch -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
9. Frank Chance -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
10. Frank Howard -- This guy could really mash. 142 OPS+
11. Ernie Lombardi -- Catchers who hit this good are hard to find.
12. Al Rosen -- Hit like an inner circle guy for five seasons, but he came up late and then hurt his back.
13. Reggie Smith -- I had been underrating him. We've inducted the other CF's and CF/RF's that hit this well.
14. Kirby Puckett -- Just off ballot two years in a row. Finally makes it. Lots of value at key defensive position in short-ish career
15. Pete Browning -- Been hovering near the on-off mark of my ballot for many years. Lack of newbies puts him on the ballot this year. Superlative hitter. Weak league and durability issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
16-20. Nettles, BJohnson, Leach, ADawson, Bando,
21-25. Cepeda, TJohn, Cey, Tiant, Saberhagen,
26-30. TPerez, Singleton, Brock, Staub, Walters,
31-35. DMurphy, Kaat, Parker
   79. Kenn Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:23 PM (#2552752)
I mostly look at career value over a fairly high replacement level, generous with credit for missed time and fielding. Think OPS+ & ERA+ times playing time, but with a ton of adjustments, and I have started keeping more peak-oriented and component part tallies alongside, which I use to bump players up and down on the final ballot. I went back in time and worked my PHOM out until about the 70s, which helps me decide which borderliners I really like best.

1. Wade Boggs - He was better than the rest of these guys. Shocking.

2. Reggie Smith - Looks extremely strong to me. A bit surprising, as poor in-season durability was not what I'd like, but it was still a fairly long career, with good defensive value as well.

3. Tommie Bridges - Love the solid run of years from 1932-1942. Throw in a little war credit and comes out as my favorite backlog pitcher.

4. Wally Schang - I see Schang as even more deserving this week, in comparison to other players from his time. Solid bat and glove over a long career.

5. Bus Clarkson - I greatly appreciate the work done here on MLEs, though I find I have to discount them a bit or I get a stack of NLs at the top of the ballot. I'm convinced enough by the argument that Clarkson's era is underrepresented to discount him less than the rest (and even less this week than last) which places him here.

6. Phil Rizzuto - I give him three years of war credit, at his average level two years before and after. With an excellent fielding rating, he keeps looking better.

7. Bill Monroe - My favorite of the negro league candidates, based on the most recent MLE's posted here, though discounted as explained under Clarkson.

8. Ed Cicotte - I dropped pitchers from his era a bit (Joss no longer on ballot), but pitcher hitting has taken on a bigger factor than before, and he was good at it.

9. Andre Dawson - I have Dawson as an average CF and good corner, and enough excellent years mixed into the career to be worth a ballot spot.

10. Kirby Puckett - Browning and Puckett seem to be the closest to going in, both with severe faults in the eyes of many voters. I happen to like both, partly because in my reading of statistics, outfield defense in general, and CF in particular, has become more prominent over time, helping Puckett (and to some extent Dawson) stand out in his era, and Browning's pure bat look better in his. My own estimates of league difficulty also put a little bump in the late 80's.

11. Pete Browning - As mentioned above, I don't see Browning's defensive liabilitis as being as important in his era as it would be later, and despite his missed time, on bat alone he scores extremely well in my system.

12. Don Newcombe - Even with credit for disruptions to his career (2 MiL, 2 War), the career is not especially long, only 13 years, but the years we have are all very strong except his first back from war. I think it is reasonable to see the entire stretch of that quality, which is the longest such streak among my borderline pitchers.

13. Dave Bancroft - Slick-fielding SS with a good bat over a fairly long career, with both those skills being especially valuable for the first half of that time.

14. Bob Johnson - I've been leary of Johnson because his era seems saturated with OF, but I would have taken him over the 2-3 of the HOM electees, so I'm willing to support him now.

15. Dave Concepcion - I'd never thought much of his HOF arguements before this project, but I do see long-time fielding as quite valuable, and his bat isn't as bad as I had thought.

16. Jimmy Ryan - How does he get so lost in the debate between Browning, Duffy, and Van Haltren?
17. Bucky Walters - Ugly peripherals, but good bat and decent results.
18. Wilbur Cooper - New find for me.
19. Virgil Trucks
20. Bobby Bonds
21. Tommy John
22. Gavvy Cravath
23. Graig Nettles
24. Dale Murphy - Someone mentioned he should look good to Puckett voters, and going back to look, indeed he does.
25. Norm Cash
26. Spottswood Poles
27. Bret Saberhagen - A find him a bit like Redding, but Redding isn't quite to my ballot.
28. Dick Redding - The more recent numbers don't help him, though he may still make my PHOM.
28. Fred Lynn
29. Elston Howard
30. Rick Reuschel

Others: Ale Oms (~#45) Had liked him more earlier, but I prefer Estalella now, and even him not to the point of the ballot.
   80. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 01, 2007 at 04:15 PM (#2552960)
2005 Ballot:

1. Wade Boggs – The chicken man. Earns the top spot this year.

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Andre Dawson – Matches Perez in my offensive evaluations and has the defensive edge.

5. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

6. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good. Third base years help.

7. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of years has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

8. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

9. Kirby Puckett - Basically a peak/prime vote. Does not have any filler years at beginning or end of career and his defense /offense combination for his position and era give him the edge over the other candidates.

10. Vic Willis –Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

11. Bob Elliott – The post someone made about holding his outfield time against him was true in my case. Not as much an outfielder as I had previously thought.

12. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

13. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

14. Gavvy Cravath – One of the enigmas in terms of career interpretation. His career in the majors combined with my interpretation of the other information places him here.

15. Fred Dunlap – First time ever on my ballot (I think). Chris Cobb’s study a few elections ago on the merits of Browning actually convinced me that I had Dunlap too low. He makes his way to the final spot on my ballot. Even with the discounted UA season he put quite a package together.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Bucky Walters – Actually not a bad candidate but the breaks don’t go his way (war years, sterling defenses) and are enough to keep him off my ballot for now.

Dick Redding – Too much uncertainty surrounding him to put him on my ballot.

Alejandro Oms – Not that far from my ballot. Have him slightly behind Bob Johnson and with how tight the backlog is, that’s the difference between on and off.
   81. yest Posted: October 01, 2007 at 04:35 PM (#2552984)
2005 ballot

Boggs , Butler , and Gomez make my PHOM this year

1. Wade Boggs never had I realized just how dumb some writers for the HoF were till I read comments saying they weren't voting for him or were voting him despite the "fact" that he wasn't dominant (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. Don Mattingly should have got a ring in 94 (made my personal HoM in 2001)
3. Kirby Puckett was there ever athlete who lost his reputation like he did (made my personal HoM in 2001)
4. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
5. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
6. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
7. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
8. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
12. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
13. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
14. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1994)
15. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
16. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1995)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
19. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
20. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
21. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
22. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
23. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
24. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
25. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
26. Bill Mazeroski 2nd greatest (fielding) 2nd baseman (McPhee‘s 1) ever (made my personal HoM in 1985)
27. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1985)
28. Dave Parker would be higher with out his extra credit (made my personal HoM in 1997)
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
30. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1985)
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1967)
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1967)
33. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
34. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
35. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1994)
36. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
37. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
38. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
39. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
40. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
41. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
42. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
43. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)
44. Dave Bancroft led SS in range factor 7 times (made my personal HoM in 2002)
45. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
46. Jack Morris in short (because unfortunately I don‘t have time to post an extensive search on the subject) looking over retrosheet I found his ERA to be inflated somewhat by a few bad performances that overstate his ERA to win expectation leading many to believe his win record was inflated by his teammates more then I think is true though I found his teamates did prevent him from getting the loss what appears to be more then normal
for example in 1984 he went 19-11 with a 3.60 era though he only had 2 wins where he gave up more then 4 ER
there a basically few games in which rose his ERA to heights above his expected win level give him the loss but each of these games effects his era more then 1 game should.
on 6-2-1984 in 6.0 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 1.88 to 2.20 getting the loss
on 6-12-1984 in 3.0 IP he gave up 6 runs 6 being ER raising his era from 2.11 to 2.51 getting the loss
on 6-29-1984 in 5.2 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 2.39 to 2.63 getting the loss
on 7- 3-1984 in 4.1 IP he gave up 8 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 2.63 to 3.08 getting the loss
on 7- 18-1984 in 4.0 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 2.99 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8- 7-1984 in 1.1 IP he gave up 9 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 3.08 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8-16-1984 in 3.2 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 3.57 to 3.84with a no decision (give him the loss here but don’t take away the wins he did get from him)
(made my personal HoM in 2000)
47. Buddy Myer 1935 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1996)
48. Cecil Cooper most rbi twice (made my personal HoM in 1997)
49. George H. Burns most hits twice gets PCL credit (made my personal HoM in 1998)
50. Burleigh Grimes 20 wins 5 times (made my personal HoM in 2002)
51. Ron Guidry most wins from 1977-1986 (made my personal HoM in 2004)
52. Brett Butler never would have thought he would make it when I started this project (makes my personal HoM this year)
53. Lefty Gomez most strikeouts in the 30’s (makes my personal HoM this year)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Bob Johnson with out WWII adjustments is borderline with them he’s quite a bit lower
Andre Dawson too low a BA/OBP for my tastes and not enough power to make up for it as is he’s not so far off from my ballot and may make my pHoM in the future
Alejandro Oms is currently my highest ranked NeL not on my extended ballot
Dick Redding barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Bucky Walters would have been in my pHoM with out WWII adjustments as he is he’s still close to it
Tony Perez needs more of a peak to meet with his career
   82. mulder & scully Posted: October 01, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2553084)
2005 Ballot: My 1st, 14th, and 16th spots were elected. Wade Boggs gets the first PHOM spot, spots 2 and 3 still up in the air. Copy and paste ballot since my free time has disappeared with my wife starting a new business. I would like to do some reevaluation b/c I don’t like the dearth of catcher/second/shortstops. I am going through Dan's WARP data also. Where was that 40 hour day I ordered?

Here are the factors I consider:
1. 7 year prime
2. 3 years consecutive peak
3. rank within era and position
4. career
5. per season of 648 PA - benefits players like Chance, hurts those who played in high offense eras like the 1890s
I give bonus for being an all-star by win shares or STATS
I include time missed for WWI and II in most cases.
I include time in high minors if a player is blocked because of when he played - independent minors.
I include time for some suspensions: Charley Jones - yes, Joe Jackson - no
I believe in MLEs for skin color.

1. Wade Boggs (PHOM 2005) – Easy number 1. Best in majors 5 times plus 3 more times for the AL. In the top 5 all-time for 3rd base.

2. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901) - I think we missed on him. Of the great pre-60' pitchers, he had some of the worst run and defensive support - compare to Clarkson or Radbourn or Keefe (when he wasn't with NY). Chris J.'s run support index shows that his wins are real. Also, beat opposing HoMers like a drum.

3. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958) - Great peak. This ranking includes deductions for 1943-45. Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

4. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921) - A fantastic hitter. I know he had his best run in the early AA, but he had a great year in the PL as well. Had a great peak and prime score in my system - which knocks him for being fragile.
Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not. Top 10 position player in 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887, and 1890. Best in 1882 and 1885. League ranks, 1st, 4th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, and 4th.
Moved him down 1 space because of the excellent discussion about him and the AA going on his thread. He may get moved back ahead of Walters, but this week he is here.

5. Bus Clarkson (PHOM 2000) - ranking is based on the revised MLEs. He could hit. He could field well enough. Career hampered by the integration-era destruction of the NeLs and quotas.

6. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919) - Great defender. Great prime and peak. All-star 5 times. twice best in league. Moved to LF because McCarthy couldn't hit anymore and you needed two CF in Boston's park - see SABR's new stadium book. Not at the level of several HOM 90s outfielders but comfortably above the CF standards.
A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

7. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966) - Great defense at third and CF - gold glove level at both. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. Top 15 if whole career is at 3rd and top 25 in CF if whole career was there. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.

8. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942) - Best pitcher in NL two times, second best in NL two times. Almost even with McGinnity. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906. Top 10 most every other year.

9. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979) - All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis. Great peak and prime - 7 times an all-star including 1910 and 1911. Unique career that was a result of his time/place.

10. Don Newcombe (PHOM 1994) - Credit for minor league years and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great. I give MiL credit for 1947, 1948, and 4 starts worth in 1949.
Top 5 starter in league in 1949, 1950, 1951, (Korea 1952, 1953), 1955, 1956, 1959
Rank in league/majors: 4th/9th t (1st t/5th t with MiL credit), 4th/8th, 5th/9th, 2nd/2nd, 1st/2nd, 5th/9th. Also, Korean War Credit for 1952 and 1953 at 22 WS and 23 WS gives 2 more top 4 years. For a total of 6 plus two fifths.
   83. mulder & scully Posted: October 01, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2553091)
11. George Burns (PHOM 1938) - Did everything well. Took a huge number of walks. Hit for good power. Never missed a game. Scored a lot of runs. Top 10 in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920. Rank in league/majors: 8th/20, 1st/4th, 7th/13th, 9th/17th, 3rd/5th, 3rd/8th, 2nd/4th, 7th/17th. 1921-23 in NL only: 14th, 18th, 15th.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1913-15, 1917-19. Top 3 in majors in 1914, 17, 19.

12. Wilbur Cooper (PHOM 1985) - An all-star 8 times. He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.

13. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964) –Ohms is always at the edge of my ballot. Great consistent prime. One or two big years away from being an every-year ballot member. Stays on ballot after many years off.

14. Graig Nettles (PHOM 1996): A great defensive 3rd basemen. Lacks the great years that so many 3rd basemen have in the 60s and 70s: Santo, Bando, Schmidt, Brett, Perez before he moved to 1st. Listed higher than my system says because I believe there is something my system is not catching about him.
Top 15 in league in 1971, 1972 (16th), 1974, 1975 (19th but 1 away from 15th), 1976, 1977, 1978.
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/15th t, 16th t/38th t, 13th t/31st t, 4th/9th, 11th t/20th t, 8th/16th.
Best 3b in league: 2nd in 1971 by 2, 2nd t in 1972 by 2, 1974 3rd by 3, 1975 2nd by 4, 2nd by 5 in 1976, 2nd by 4 in 1977, 2nd by 1 in 1978

15. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985) - Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

16. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961) – I like him better than Faber, Rixey, and Ruffing. Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

17. Bret Saberhagen – I didn’t think he had done enough to be elected, but the comparisons to Dave Stieb have made me reconsider. A conservative early placement. Could move up to the ballot next year.

18. Elston Howard (PHOM 1994): I kept overlooking him. I am giving more of a benefit of the doubt about his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.

19. Dale Murphy (PHOM 2002): Member of the Wile E. Coyote School of Career Paths (Jimmy Ryan a charter member). CF is a tough position. There are the obvious: Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, Mantle, DiMaggio, Griffey, Snider, Stearnes, Torriente, and Hamilton (in some order) then what? In a knot of players at the edge of CFers. Definitely ahead of Carey and Ashburn though.
All-Star in NL: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987. All-Star in majors: 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987
Top 15 in NL/majors: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987
Rank: 4th/10th, 2nd/3rd, 2nd t/5th t, 2nd t/4th t, 5th/8th t, 15th t/NR, 6th t/9th t.

20. Jack Fournier (PHOM 1997): Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career
   84. mulder & scully Posted: October 01, 2007 at 05:29 PM (#2553109)
21. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. McGraw usually knew what he was doing. Maybe he did here too? Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

22. Frank Howard (PHOM 2001): Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with.
Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.
23. Luke Easter: The ultimate what-if player.

24. Herman Long (PHOM 1997): Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889.

25. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. Probably would make the PHOM in the last 5 years.

26. Al Rosen: What if...
Top 10 in league: 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954
Rank in league/majors: 4th t/7th t, 5th t/14th t, 3rd/5th, 1st/1st, 7th/14th.
Best third baseman in AL in 1950, 1952, 1953, 1954. Best in majors in 1950, 1952, 1953.

27. Ken Singleton: Slugging outfielder for Weaver’s Orioles. Career reputation is hindered by playing in a pitcher’s park in an average/slightly lower than average era for hitting.
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980,
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/13th t, 1st t/2nd t, 12th t/24th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 3rd/5th, 7th t/12th t
Top 3 outfielder in league in 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979. In majors in 1975, 1977, 1979.
Could move up.

28. Kirby Puckett: Top 18 in league: 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1995
Rank in league/majors: 7th t/13th t, 4th t/9th t, 2nd/3rd, 7th t/16th t, 14th tied with 6 others/30th t, 3rd/10th t, 5th t/12th t, 16th t/37th t.
Top 3 OF in league in 1987, 1988, 1992. In majors in 1988. Peak and prime are close, but not quite high enough to pull the trigger. I am not totally opposed like I am to Dawson.

Andre Dawson: Take a walk. He played in a time when OFs (and Mike Schmidt) put up the big numbers in the NL. His prime and peak scores are not high enough.
Top 15 in league in: 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983
Rank in league/majors: 14th t/NR, 3rd/9th, 2nd/4th, 9th t/18th t, 7th t/13th t.
Top 3 OF in league in 1980, 1981. In majors in 1981.
Significantly below Murphy.

Bob Johnson: The 11th or so best hitter (not player, hitter) in the AL in the 1930s. With the NeLer and NLers and pitchers included, he is not a top 30 player for a decade that already has the most HoMers. Everybody hit in the AL in the 1930s. Look how many top 100 OBP/SLG careers are centered in that decade from the AL.

Tony Perez: A couple of very good years as a third baseman then many average first baseman years (ie. performing as an average first baseman). Not in my top 50.
   85. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 01, 2007 at 07:27 PM (#2553317)
My major league post-1893 position player voting is based entirely on my WARP system, whose methodology is elaborated with great detail in the thread devoted to it, and my salary estimator. The biggest discrepancies this causes with the group involve position scarcity (I think we grossly underrate shortstops), era preference (I like guys from difficult-to-dominate years like the 1970s and 80s), and durability vs. longevity (I vote heavily on peak as measured by rate, but don't care much whether a guy squeezed his value into particular 154- or 162-game seasons--I'll take 500 PA@150 OPS+ over 700 at 125 any day). For pitchers, I'm still playing it by ear, although I'm inclined to support guys whose careers center around 1930 as that appears to have been an extremely tough era for pitchers to dominate (Grove, Hubbell, and Vance notwithstanding). On Negro Leaguers, I think MLE's are extremely unreliable, and I use reputation (or lack of it) as a reality check (yes, I'm talking to you, Bus Clarkson). And for pitchers' box era guys, I'm reliant on BP's run estimator to give me a sense of their productivity. I dock pre-integration players of both races for not competing against their counterparts of the other race (Babe Ruth would have had a lower OPS+ if he had played in the same league as Oscar Charleston, but Charleston would have had a lower MLE as well if the major league difficulty level were higher than it actually was due to integration).

This ballot has some new tweaks--Campaneris makes it, Dawson debuts, Bancroft drops off, my segregation penalty is stiffened a bit, and I try to introduce more positional balance by sliding down the shortstops a nudge.

1. Wade Boggs
#34 MLB position player of the pitchers' mound era.

2. John McGraw
Sometimes it really is just as simple as a .500 OBP. Yes, it's a short career, and yes, he couldn't stay on the field. But he was an inner-circle Hall of Famer when he did play, with a skill set (super-high OBP and defense) that was ideally suited for his environment, in an era when 3B was much more demanding than it later became. WS and WARP probably miss on him more than any other player, due to the inflexibility of their run estimators, their failure to sufficiently adjust for changes in positional difficulty over time, and their absurdly low replacement levels over-rewarding mere "showing up." McGraw was a game-changing player the likes of which baseball has rarely seen since. No backlogger was half the player that McGraw was when he managed to get onto the diamond.

3. Reggie Smith
I'm unconcerned by his lack of in-season durability. I do like the offense equal to inducted bats like Jimmy Wynn combined with Win Shares-approved defense, half a career in CF, a low-standard deviation era, and a year of Japan credit.

4. David Concepción
My pet candidate. To rehash: His 1973-82 are virtually identical to the best of Ozzie Smith, Ozzie just bests him on longevity (especially in the field). In an era where a banjo-hitting shortstop was worth his weight in gold, and where a 150 OPS+ was nearly good enough to lead the league, Concepción was a unique commodity and gave the Reds a massive head start over every other team in the league at the game's most critical position.

5. Dagoberto Campaneris
The candidate most benefited by the new version of my WARP, as he now gets credit for his absolutely superlative non-SB baserunning for his pre-1972 years. Brock voters should really take a look at him--if you like speed, he seems to me to clearly be the best option. The usual spiel about low SS replacement level and low standard deviations in his era applies. Remember, you couldn't win a World Series between 1972 and 1976 without a Latin shortstop by the initials of D.C.

6. Pete Browning
Best hitter on the ballot, bar none. Bad fielding, unimpressive career length, ease of competition, and now my segregation penalty drag him down. But man, could he ever hit.

7. Graig Nettles
An all-time great with the glove--his 1971 was plus thirty four runs on defense according to Defensive Regression Analysis--with a low replacement level and a difficult-to-dominate league. He was Brooks Robinson with an extra 6 points of OPS+ in a tougher league.

8. Luis Tiant
Just comes out the best in my initial forays into pitcher WARP.

9. Phil Rizzuto
With proper war credit--and I've increased it upon finding out that his poor 1946 was due to a malaria infection--he actually comes out #2 or #3 on my ballot in terms of raw MLB value, thanks to his strong prime accompanying the huge MVP year and fistful of rings. But the gap between the actual and regression-projected standard deviation for his peak years makes me much more concerned about the strength of his leagues. An increased sensitivity to quality of competition, along with a desire for more positional balance on my ballot, drops him down a notch, along with...

10. Johnny Pesky
The new Charlie Keller...or, if you prefer, Hughie Jennings. Had absolutely monster years immediately before and after the war, with superlative defense and best-at-position offense, and also played 1941 in the minors at a high major league All-Star level (I don't give him minor league credit for that year, but it does strengthen the case for the quality of his war credit). Then added just enough post-integration to get over the hump.

11. Burleigh Grimes
In my research on pitcher standard deviations and translated innings pitched, I noticed that pitcher performance in the late 1920's was very tightly bunched together both in terms of durability and effectiveness. Grimes seems to be the best of that bunch.

12. Andre Dawson
A strange career--a serious candidate for both peak (1980-83) and career, but no real extended prime. My new WARP are friendly to Hawk, as my separation of replacement levels for CF and LF/RF shows that the gap between center and corner outfielders was at an all-time high right around 1980. The concerns about his low OBP are somewhat misplaced for the same reason that people sell McGraw short--the relative value of OBP to SLG moves in tandem with the run environment. While McGraw's out avoidance was at an all-time premium in the high-octane 1890's, Dawson's propensity to make outs hurt his teams *much* less in the pitching-friendly 1970s and 80s than it would have in other eras. His speed and high number of sac flies (including a tremendous 18 in 1983) also were particularly valuable in 4 R/G leagues. In short, Dawson was a player perfectly suited to his times, much more useful when he played than he would be today. Don't make the mistake of looking at him through Steroid Era glasses.

13. Adolfo Luque
My ballot needs more pitchers, and given that he accumulated 3,220 innings at a 117 ERA+ while barely pitching in MLB until he was 29, any blocking credit lifts him above the rest of the backlog.

14. Don Newcombe
In addition to the obvious credits for blocking, fighting, and his insanely good hitting, he pitched in an incredibly low standard deviation era for pitchers.

15. Fred Dunlap
Nice OPS+ for a slick-fielding 2B.

Top 10 returnees and newbies:

Kirby Puckett
As I posted in his thread, the guy was about the 5th best CF of his own era. Nothing special in CF; simply accumulated high putout totals due to a low-K, flyball-oriented pitching staff. Would be the worst player in the HoM, bar none, making Nellie Fox look downright Meritorious. Did nothing better than, say, Cesar Cedeño.

Bob Johnson
His wartime demerits exceed his minor league credit, and he played in very easy to dominate leagues. Wouldn't be a terrible selection, but not an elite player of his era (since so many of them were in the Negro Leagues, his MLB stats look deceivingly shiny).

Alejandro Oms
I tepidly support him, but he was so overshadowed by his contemporaries like Torriente. If he were really that great, wouldn't we have heard about him?

Dick Redding
The guy seems like a total question mark to me. Voting for him is just a shot in the dark.

Bucky Walters
An illusion produced by his fielders.

Bret Saberhagen
Neither enough career nor enough years like 1989.

Fallen angels

Dave Bancroft
Takes a hit with incorporation of CS data in my new WARP (15 SB/27 CS in 1915--ouch!) and an upward revision of his replacement level.

Wally Schang
Now that I've actually calculated the appropriate catcher bonus, I was giving him too much credit. The best backlog C candidates are Tenace and Munson.
   86. Jim Sp Posted: October 01, 2007 at 07:50 PM (#2553364)
Bucky Walters
An illusion produced by his fielders.

Part of the reason those Cincinatti defenses were good is that 300 innings out of the year they had Walters (truly a fifth infielder) pitching.
   87. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 01, 2007 at 07:55 PM (#2553369)
What's the evidence? FRAA has him at just +2 for his '39-'41 peak.
   88. Jim Sp Posted: October 01, 2007 at 07:55 PM (#2553373)
That said, I agree with you, difficult for me to believe that a great pitcher could walk more than he strikes out, even given the era norms.
   89. Jim Sp Posted: October 01, 2007 at 08:02 PM (#2553382)
What's the evidence? FRAA has him at just +2 for his '39-'41 peak.

You got me there, though I wonder how well FRAA works for pitchers. Just speculation on my part, proposing an explanation for his consistent DH/DR advantage. As a converted infielder I thought that must have come from his fielding, but maybe not.
   90. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 01, 2007 at 08:08 PM (#2553398)
I don't see what his fielding would have to do with his DR, unless he was a worse fielder with the bases empty than with runners on. DH, certainly.
   91. TomH Posted: October 01, 2007 at 08:22 PM (#2553425)
yeah, Bucky's defenses were real good for a few years. But

1) he had lousy D behind him for a few years, too. Imagine tyring to learn to throw in the majors in your formative years when your team had not fielding range. Not exactly the best environ for the manager to come out and tell you to 'throw strikes', is it?
2) he could HIT; his OPS+ ain't all that much worse than HoFer Mazeroski. Steve Carlton could hit some too, and Bucky was about 100 runs better over his career.
3) his thread explains how he was matched against superior opponents (team's main pennant contender) much more often than expected.
   92. Al Peterson Posted: October 01, 2007 at 08:24 PM (#2553427)
2005 ballot. There’s that hit machine at 3rd base but what becomes of the other two spots? I’m churning names round and round, here’s what comes out. Methodology in brief: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. Once that is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture, a composite worthy player. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Wade Boggs (-). I’ll take that .328 lifetime hitter first. Five time batting champ who put up the 200-hit, 100-walk seasons. Single to leftfield please…

2. Dick Redding (2). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected.

3. Tommy Leach (5). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in. Useless trivia: Still holds World Series record with 4 triples in a single series.

4. Norm Cash (4). Interesting debate with the Perez/Cepeda/Cash comparison. There appears to be fielding value on his end than the others at 1B.

5. Bobby Bonds (6). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son. Five tools on display.

6. Reggie Smith (7). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup. I don’t currently give him Japanese credit, it’s a tough call.

7. Tony Mullane (8). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

8. Bob Johnson (9). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

9. Pete Browning (11). Nine years top 10 in OBP, a pretty important skill in the high error era in which he played. Nine years top 3 in BA, dude could rake with the best. Does anyone know of his baseball work in Louisville before the AA started? I can see him as being a semi-pro star who stayed close to home due to his various physical issues.

10. Alejandro Oms (13). The body of work included Negro and Latin American play. Another career lost in translation since the Cuban time can be tricky to compute.

11. Mickey Welch (12). Another one of those annoying 300 game winners. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey. Seemed to pitch well against the other front line starters of his day.

12. Bucky Walters (14). Short time NL prime starter who has the numbers downgraded a little by the defensive support which was above normal standards. Still high quality and heck this is the backlog.

13. Carl Mays (15). One too many inside pitches cost him any chance of people having good memories of his career. Pitched, hit OK, probably benefited from some good defenses as well. Five time 20 game winner.

14. Lance Parrish (17). This is a nod to a position where I think career value can come in handy. Except for the no-brainer catchers how low on an all-time list do we take it? Was a ballot supporter of Bresnahan so I’m partial to catchers.

15. Bus Clarkson (18). Wow, to pick between him and Rizzuto was a tough one. Both were SS, have to take some extraneous factors into account. I guess I tipped a little more toward the one who looked to create more offensively.

16-20: Poles, Tiant, Rizzuto, Saberhagen, Shocker
21-25: Bell, Byrd, T John, Duffy, Ryan
26-30: Willis, Lee Smith, Easter, Perez, Munson
31-35: Ben Taylor, Luque, Nettles, Bancroft, J Clark
36-40: Luque, Elliott, Grimes, Cey, Brock
41-45: Cicotte, Cedeno, Tenace, Doyle, Puckett
46-50: Dawson, Dunlap, Bridges, Williamson, Reuschel

Top 10 Returnees: Dawson (#46), Perez (#29), Puckett (#45), Duffy (#24), Cravath (not top 50). Dawson looks a lot like many of the hitters in the backlog. I feel I’ve adjusted enough for his CF work to accurately gauge him. Perez, another of the late 60s players who is on the edge of worthiness. The questions about his defensive value damper any excitement over his candidacy. Puckett, I’m a bit perplexed. Short career, OK bat for centerfielder. Remember by the end he was a rightfielder. The glovework I wasn’t so impressed with even with him stealing HRs over the Hefty Bag in the Metrodome. Duffy’s great 1894 sticks out but the rest of the body doesn’t quite push him high enough. Cravath, I’m seeing value but he’s behind Singleton and Howard in the hit/can’t field grouping and they aren’t in my top 50.

New guys:
Darryl Strawberry seemed to have the longest swing ever but boy did the ball go far on contact. Tony Phillips ranks highest amongst the new position players behind Boggs – he had a nice little run in the mid-90s. Willie McGee is the modern day Lloyd Waner. Saberhagen is closely tied to Tiant in my mind so the debut will be just outside the top 15, a solid member of the grey area of HOMable. Mark Langston pitched on some bad Mariner teams at the beginning.
   93. TomH Posted: October 01, 2007 at 08:26 PM (#2553430)
.. not to mention learning to pitch in the (going..going...gone!) Baker Bowl. A 4.17 ERA his rookie year, with a team ERA of almost 5 without him; pretty schnazzy actually.
   94. Spencer Benedict Posted: October 01, 2007 at 09:16 PM (#2553510)
1. Wade Boggs: No brainer in this field.

2. Tony Oliva: Pretty much at or near the top of the league for eight years and at or near the top of my backlog for much longer. I don’t think I can make the former statement about anyone else on this list.

3. Lou Brock: The SB’s had a lot of value during his era. To paraphrase BJ, a player of the type of which I am not enamored, but the very best player of that type. 3000hits

4. Orlando Cepeda: Had one foot in the door before he was 26. He won an MVP after that.

5. Dizzy Dean: Had a few more top flight years than McLain but not as many as Koufax. 2.60 MVP shares.

6. Indian Bob Johnson: Pumped out those .295/.380/.500 seasons.

7. Hugh Duffy: Led the league in a number of offensive categories.

8. Pete Browning: The original masher. Mid-level backlog guy. I hope he gets in, but I can’t rank him any higher.

9. Luis Tiant: Two-time ERA+ leader and four-time twenty game winner. Irregular career pattern hurts him, but not with me.

10. Carl Mays: 81 games over .500 and a career 119 ERA+. B-R says he is the cousin of Joe Mays.

11. Chuck Klein: His “Most Similar by Age” comps are staggering. Even discounting for the ballpark, it’s a pretty good recommendation for inclusion here.

12. Vern Stephens: Why not? Too much offense for the position to be fathomable at the time. Defense did not hurt.

13. Kirby Pucket: Good defense. OPS+ fits in with what I normally include on the ballot. For the modern era, I would prefer more career length.

14. Burleigh Grimes: I know its situation dependent, but the five 20 win seasons have to count for something.

15. Left Gomez: 125 career ERA+, 87 games over .500, consistent all-star.

Dawson is on the margin, mainly due to his lousy OBP’s. Oms just does not jump out at me – there are a lot of terrific players sans the huge peak who are not on my ballot. Walters 115 ERA+ and war inflation preclude him from my ballot. Redding needs more peak.
   95. . . . . . . Posted: October 01, 2007 at 09:17 PM (#2553511)
Voting based upon Dan R.’s seasonal WARP salary-estimator. I use Dan’s WARP because I believe in adjusting for standard deviation of WARP from season to season. A 7 WARP season in the 1961 AL is patently less valuable than one in 1971. I like the salary estimator because it considers the value accrued over an entire career, sidestepping the arbitrary endpoint issue, but also properly weighs peak performance with the exact same value given to peak by the baseball teams who employ the players. I like using total seasonal WARP because in-season durability counts; ask Jimmy Rollins. I’m not including comments with each player since my ranking is based upon the system, which is well described in Dan’s WARP thread.

I give full War Credit, and do not like to give MLE credit for players who were eligible to play MLB and were “passed up”, unless there’s a clear case for blocking while a player was controlled by a parent club. This is a standard, not a rule.

Pitching & Pete Browning are basically W.A.G, since I don’t have a quantitative sense of where they would fall in this list. All other players are in ranked by their career value (with the exception of Cravath, see note on ballot).

1. Wade Boggs, $249,808,731
2. Dizzy Dean—I like great consecutive pitching peaks b/c I believe pitching injuries are essentially random, and rewarding a long career is rewarding a guy for winning the lottery. Dean was clearly great at his peak. He’s kind of the inverse of peak Pedro Martinez; Pedro was great rate, OK durability, while Dean was OK rate, great durability. The 30’s NL was a tough environment for pitchers not named Hubbell to establish a great career.
3. Phil Rizzuto, $173,175,176 (war credit for 1943-45)
4. Pete Browning—I rethought my putting him downballot. I trust assessment of his skills by his contemporary more than imprecise MLE’s.
5. Dagoberto Campaneris, $167,565,867
6. John McGraw, $163,585,393 (pre-1893 value estimated from BP WARP)
7. Graig Nettles, $163,563,273
8. Reggie Smith, $162,388,814 (Japan credit for 1983)
9. Johnny Pesky, $161,323,415 (war credit for 1943-45)
10. David Concepción, $159,343,562
11. Andre Dawson, $156,357,771
12. Burleigh Grimes- His best rate year doesn’t line up with his dominant durability years, but he pitched TONS of innings at a good-enough rate. Like Dean, but with a lower peak and a real career.
13. Dave Bancroft, $154,096,301
14. Luis Tiant- 1968 AL-184-1 1972 AL-169-1—Durability, schmurability.
15. Bob Johnson, $151,852,428

Just off ballot:

16. Gavvy Cravath, $152,470,860- this includes minor league credit for 1906-7, 9-11. I’m loathe to put Gavvy on ballot because the MLB teams passed up a chance to use him, and because I’m a bit of a component park effect fetishist and he benefitted from his handedness. The only player here where I am departing from the salary-estimator’s #’s.
17. Chuck Klein, $151,248,045- If he makes it up to 15 before the end, I’ll need to consider how much I want to ding him for component park factors.

Way off ballot:

Bret Saberhagen: 1989 is a legit great peak year…but the durability is lacking from ’85 and ’87, and ’94 gets regressed to the mean when projected to a full season.
Kirby Puckett- A figment of arbitrary endpoints. Not even close.
Dick Redding- Not meritorious based upon MLEs
Alejandro Oms- not a bad player, but not Chuck Klein
Bucky Walters- a defense & wartime mirage
   96. Mr Dashwood Posted: October 01, 2007 at 10:01 PM (#2553565)
I've not had much time in this election cycle, and therefore I haven't been able to produce a preliminary. As in 2004, this is a very weak year. In an ideal world I'd really prefer not to vote for anybody in the "elect-me" spots after my first pick, and redistribute those points over the guys occupying lower positions on my ballot.

Having started life as an extreme peak voter, I have moved towards being a prime voter, and look carefully at who has already been elected to set the borderline. I also believe strongly in a ballot having a degree of positional balance.

1) Wade Boggs Someone on the radio this morning said he has the fifth highest career batting average of all players active during the last fifty years.

2 Dave Concepcion Should three +10 WARP3 seasons be a benchmark for HoM membership?

3 Tony Perez Perez had two of the kind of pennant-winning seasons I value highly in 1969 and 1970, although they carry the taint of expansion effects. My defensive system also suggests he had above-average range at 3b in 1968, so his reputation as a poor defender is perhaps overstated, pending further analysis.

4 Kirby Puckett Every one of Puckett's 12 seasons was +5 WARP3. I mark him down a little for falling short of my modern benchmark of 2000 games.

5 Bret Saberhagen He has a very high peak, but there are some durability questions that keep him out of one of my "elect-me" slots. But he does have those +10 WARP3 seasons.

6 Bill Mazeroski He was definitely the dominant 2bman of the 1960s NL, in terms of fielding, but he survives on my ballot mostly as a comment about the election of Nellie Fox. If Fox is deserving, so is Maz. (See my recent remarks on his thread.)

7 Bob Johnson I like him for his 12 +5 WARP3 seasons. As with Puckett, he gets marked down slightly for too short a career in the big leagues.

8 Alejandro Oms My leading right-field candidate at the moment, I interpret his equivalent stats to suggest that he was a better hitter than Reggie Smith or Ken Singleton.

9 Luis Tiant I was surprised by him coming above Dennis Eckersley in the end, but Tiant had an excellent prime, with top grade seasons in 1968 and 1974, which Eckersley lacks.

10 Thurman Munson Depending on where you bookend Freehan's prime, Munson is better or almost as good. His career value is almost equal. Why isn't he attacting more support?

11 Ron Cey Somehow I managed to overlook him prior to this ballot. Cey's 1975 season is a stellar performance, and he delivered excellent value for a 3b in his career.

12 Brett Butler I like the shape of his career better than Dawson's, even if it is shorter.

13 Ken Singleton He dominated his league for a short time, and in his 1975 and 1977 seasons delivered the kind of boost that can take his team into contention. (A shame for all those formulae that neither actually did add a pennant.) He won a head-to-head against Reggie Smith, who doesn't peak quite as well.

14 Phil Rizzuto War credit carries him past Aparicio and to the fringe of my ballot.

15 Buddy Bell Another fellow I overlooked with Cey, he offers a litle more impact than Traynor, albeit in a shorter prime and a longer career. I might change my mind next time.

Top tens not on ballot.
Cannonball Dick Redding has too short a peak for me, and not enough of what I'd call a prime.
Pete Browning falls short on length of prime.
Andre Dawson I find him and Butler very close over their primes, but the numbers (such as EqA) tell me Butler is a little bit better.
I used to vote for Bucky Walters, but I don't think he has quite enough career value for me nowadays.

New Guys
Tony Phillips is definitely the wrong side of the in/out line, largely (and strongly) owing to comparisons to his peers.
   97. jimd Posted: October 01, 2007 at 10:05 PM (#2553570)
Bucky Walters
An illusion produced by his fielders.

Bucky Walters- a defense & wartime mirage

Bucky Walters - much of his pitching was actually defense

Are you all (DanR, 'zop, DLfromMN) saying that the adjustments that BP makes to pitchers to compensate for their fielders are insufficient and need to be increased? I would like to hear more about this. (On the Walters thread or the WS vs WARP thread.)


Bucky Walters- a defense & wartime mirage

Bucky Walters. What a pitching peak, but too much of it is war years.

Bucky Walters: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

sp Bucky Walters—He's just off my ballot. It is a nice peak, but a bit inflated due to the decreased competition during the war, and the excellent defense behind him during his peak.

Just pointing out that Walter's three big years are 1939-1941. WWII didn't start for the US until after that season (Pearl Harbor was 12/7/41), wartime draft and enlistments didn't have a significant effect on the big leagues until 1943-45.

Those three seasons should have NO war discount, and neither should Williams .406 in 1941 nor should DiMaggio's hitting streak the same year.
   98. DL from MN Posted: October 01, 2007 at 10:16 PM (#2553582)
I'm saying the adjustment BP makes to pitchers slides Bucky Walters way off my ballot.
   99. Max Parkinson Posted: October 01, 2007 at 10:34 PM (#2553604)
First, on a personal note I got to visit Boston this past weekend. I was fortunate enough to sit in the second row at Fenway, just past the Sox dugout. Wow, what a wonderful place to watch a game – and the pre-game atmosphere was incredible. I’ve now been spoiled, and will no longer be able to enjoy Jays’ home games as I once did.

2005 ballot

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do. Also, I’m less impressed with offensive players whose main talent was walking than the group as a whole (yest obviously aside) – players like Darrell Evans and Ken Singleton are much lower for me than the consensus.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

1. Wade Boggs

When you’ve got a legitimate argument for top-5 of all time at your position, you get the 1st ballot slot (unless it’s 1934).

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Dick Redding

A strong early peak and longish career helps to overcome the lackluster middle parts of his career.

4. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

5. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

6. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

7. Bucky Walters

A very good peak, and good hitter to boot. He’s the edge right now for elected pitchers.

8. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

9. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.

10. George Burns

Maybe I’m crazy, but if he had put up the exact same numbers, and been an average CF as opposed to a terrific LF (that is, no change to his talent or performance, just what was written on the lineup card), I think he’d either be in already, or would have been before Roush.

11. Bobby Veach

Someone here (DanG?) used to post lists of top OPS+ by time period. Of the 1900-1920 group, the only unelected members of the top 20 are Cravath (no. 1), Veach and Bresnahan….

12. Luis Tiant

For me, he’s just outside in/out line. I wouldn’t cry if he makes it or he doesn’t.

13. Don Newcombe

While I don’t give war credit for Korea, I believe that he would have contributed earlier than he did if not for the colour line. Alas, if he could have just got two more outs in his most famous outing, none of us would have ever said the name Bobby Thomson.

14. Urban Shocker

Wow. I think that it’s been around 50 or 60 “Years” since Urban hit my ballot. He’s been floating between 12-30, depending on the nature of the backlog…and I’m pretty sure that we’ve hit bottom, with all of the Elect-3 years…

15. Jim Rice

A monster for several years – lots of votes here for Singleton, and very very few for Rice. Recall that their best years were both ’77-’82 or so. I’d love to hear what GM at the time would have traded Rice for Singleton straight up.

Others of Note:

Johnson – In the ‘30s along with Klein and Hack Wilson.

Puckett – I was surprised to find how low my system ranked him. The bonus that he gets for dragging two teams to World Series titles still only gets him into the ‘40s.

Alejandro Oms – His 125 MLE OPS+, including what may have been good CF defense isn’t enough to get him over top of Puckett, who had a 124 OPS+, very good CF defense, and post-season heroics.

Ken Singleton – see Jim Rice comment. Another player who the statheads love due to the walks, but is very overrated just looking at RC or OPS.
   100. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 01, 2007 at 10:35 PM (#2553606)
I don't really use BP's numbers, but my own accounting leads to the same result that DL from MN gets.
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