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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, January 02, 2006

2006 BTF Hall of Fame Ballot

IMPORTANT: Please read:

This election should follow BBWAA rules, not Hall of Merit rules. However, we hope to see only players that each voter feels belong on their ballots - if you don’t feel he really is a HOFer, then please refrain from posting that player’s name. Leaving 1st-year candidates off your ballot is also frowned upon. IOW, we would like to see an absence of some of the silliness that permeates Hall of Fame voting by the writers.

The election will end next Monday (8 PM EST).

Here are some of the rules by the BBWAA that pertain to our electorate:

3. Eligible Candidates — Candidates to be eligible must meet the following requirements:

  A. A baseball player must have been active as a player in the Major Leagues at some time during a period beginning twenty (20) years before and ending five (5) years prior to election.
  B. Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3 (A).
  C. Player shall have ceased to be an active player in the Major Leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election but may be otherwise connected with baseball.
  D. In case of the death of an active player or a player who has been retired for less than five (5) full years, a candidate who is otherwise eligible shall be eligible in the next regular election held at least six (6) months after the date of death or after the end of the five (5) year period, whichever occurs first.
  E. Any player on Baseball’s ineligible list shall not be an eligible candidate.

4. Method of Election

  A. BBWAA Screening Committee — A Screening Committee consisting of baseball writers will be appointed by the BBWAA. This Screening Committee shall consist of six members, with two members to be elected at each Annual Meeting for a three-year term. The duty of the Screening Committee shall be to prepare a ballot listing in alphabetical order eligible candidates who (1) received a vote on a minimum of five percent (5%) of the ballots cast in the preceding election or (2) are eligible for the first time and are nominated by any two of the six members of the BBWAA Screening Committee.
  B. Electors may vote for as few as zero (0) and as many as ten (10) eligible candidates deemed worthy of election. Write-in votes are not permitted.+
  C. Any candidate receiving votes on seventy-five percent (75%) of the ballots cast shall be elected to membership in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

5. Voting — Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

The eligible candiates are: Rick Aguilera*, Albert Belle*, Bert Blyleven, Will Clark*, Dave Concepcion, Andre Dawson, Gary DiSarcina*, Alex Fernandez*, Gary Gaetti*, Steve Garvey, Dwight Gooden*, Rich Gossage, Ozzie Guillen*, Orel Hershiser*, Gregg Jeffries*, Tommy John, Doug Jones*, Don Mattingly, Willie McGee, Hal Morris*, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Jim Rice, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Alan Trammell, Walt Weiss*, and John Wetteland*.

+Write-ins are allowed, but wont be included with the official tally.

*1st-year candidates.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 02, 2006 at 02:16 PM | 207 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 02, 2006 at 02:58 PM (#1802839)

1) Bert Blyleven: Even saddled with some negatives, he's a Hall-of-Famer, in my book. Comfortably.

2) Gosse Gossage: The greatest combined peak and career fireman of his time. Not even arguable.

3) Alam Trammell: Playing in the shadow of Cal Ripken's all-around greatness and Ozzie Smith's defensive wizardry (Robin Yount should also be mentioned) shouldn't diminish his own value and high place among shortstops in baseball history.

4) Will Clark: One of the most underrated greats of the game. Like Trammell, he had the bad luck of playing among a harvest of talent at his position.

No write-ins this time. Too many candidates.
   2. karlmagnus Posted: January 02, 2006 at 03:11 PM (#1802850)
1. "Parisian Bob" Caruthers -- some injustices are too great to be borne!

2. Blyleven 4970 innings, 118 ERA+

3. Will Clark 2176 hits at 138, OF.

4. Gossage 1809 hits at 126 ERA+ translates to 3618 at 121 ERA+

5. Parker 2712 hits at 121, OF (surprisingly high)

6. Belle 1726 hits at 143, OF (ditto)

7. Rice 2452 hits at 128, OF (4-6 are close)

8. Trammell, 2365 hits at 110, SS -- he's Sewell

9. John 4710 innings at 111 ERA+
   3. Andere Richtingen Posted: January 02, 2006 at 03:15 PM (#1802855)
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 02, 2006 at 03:54 PM (#1802879)
Bert Blyleven
Will Clark
Goose Gossage
Tommy John
Alan Trammell
   5. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 02, 2006 at 04:03 PM (#1802885)
My ballot:

Goose Gossage

-- MWE
   6. sunnyday2 Posted: January 02, 2006 at 04:23 PM (#1802899)
1. Blyleven
2. Rice
3. Gossage
4. Dawson
5. Sutter
6. Belle
7. Trammell
8. Parker
9. Mattingly

This is the same as my prelim ballot except I realize that I left Will Clark off. So, is Will Clark better than my 10th and last prelim choice, Dale Murphy? Yes, though I am surprised that a little quick and dirty reference I use (HFM + HFS + BI +GI) = Murphy 324 and Clark 232. But a 138 OPS+ versus 119 is pretty much a clincher to me. Too big of a difference for Murphy to overcome by any other measure. And if Clark is on my ballot in place of Murphy, then it is also apparent that he was better than Mattingly as well. But not necessarily Parker, they are close so Parker stays at #8 and Clark slots in at #9. And if this is all gibberish, well, the ranking doesn't matter (at least for the moment) since it's just a yes/no vote, anyway. But OTOH next year somebody (three somebodies minus however many are elected this year, though I think that will be zero) will drop off so getting the bottom of the ballot right is important after all.
   7. yest Posted: January 02, 2006 at 05:28 PM (#1802947)
Bert Blyleven not as good as most (who actuly look at his record) think but clearly a HoFer

Will Clark much worse then Mattingly much better then Garvey

Steve Garvey good hitter (avg only I count walking as a seprate talent) good power, good fielder, played a lot per season, clutch player (hit 338/361/550 in post season play)to me equals a borderline hall of famer

Rich Gossage clearly the best reliver not in cooperstown

Tommy John played forever

Don Mattingly best peak on the ballot and had some good years after that too

Jack Morris I'm using my Mickey Welch theory (his bad games realy stunk) for him also most wins in the 80's can be done through great timing and bad compition but most wins 1978-87, 1979-88, 1980-89, 1981-90, 1982-91, 1983-92 seems to mean somthing to me (I don't have enogh time to go through evry box score at retrosheet to make sure so I'm going with my gut though if I was a bbwaa writer I would probobly do that)

Dave Parker players with a few great years ,a few good years and a few avrage years are usaliy underrated by subermatric analys due to failing to fall into either peak or career catigories

Jim Rice ditto

Bruce Sutter needs the split finger to get on my ballot but becoming less sure every year

I'm not voting for him but can someone <b></b>please tell me<u></u> what Gary DiSarcina is doing on the ballot
   8. John DiFool2 Posted: January 02, 2006 at 05:30 PM (#1802949)
1. Blyleven. Way overdue.
2. Goose. Ditto.
3. Lee Smith. Despite pitching most of his career in the NL (Goose spent most of his in the AL), his adjusted contextual ERA is higher than the Goose's. His often fair to middling H/9 numbers can probably be chalked up to both Wrigley & the Cub's often porous defense (note as a flyball/K pitcher Ryno probably didn't help him much).
4. Trammell. Yeah in this day and age a SS with a .415 slugging doesn't look all that hot. But historically he has a good enough case. Sure in 15 years he will likely drop 3 places or so (BJ has him at #9) behind Jeter, Tejada and maybe Arod or Nomar, but I'm sure he would be good for 20+ homers a season if he played now, and that is pretty good for a SS.

**On the bubble but just short**
Sutter. Doesn't have the longevity of the other two guys.
John. I really wanted to put him in, but that iffy ERA+ made me decide not to.
Rice. I'm just not convinced that he was that great a hitter. Maybe 36 GIDPs are Boggs' fault, maybe not. If Manny batted behind Boggs, he'd
drive in (in Rice's era) 150 RBIs routinely (nowadays Hack's record would be in danger).
Andre. The low OBP is a problem, even if Montreal hurt him some there. D in the second half of his career probably not GG quality (in my mind's eye I can see him charging toward a sinking liner in Wrigley's RF with that distinctive hitch in his gait)
   9. Patrick W Posted: January 02, 2006 at 05:54 PM (#1802965)
I prefer to max out the ballot, trying to offset those who would submit a ballot with 0 or 1 names. The dangers of electing ten in a given year is practically nil, and it keeps with my preference for a large Hall. I would anticipate the top 6 to 11 eligible would make it in my Hall eventually.

1.Bert Blyleven – Exhibit B on the reason for the HOM project. Exhibit A is on the Vet’s ballot every other year.
2.Alan Trammell – Do you think Detroit’s lack of success over the past decade-plus has anything to do with the lack of HOF support of recent Tigers?
3.Will Clark – He meets all the HOM standards for career and peak performance, as I have defined them - through 1967 anyways. It’s possible that the HOM standards will be raised in the next year and a half, so that this may not be the case when he’s ready for the real ballot.
4.Rich Gossage – Still don’t know how to account for closers yet. Here, I’ve added an additional inning credit for every save accumulated and prorated career value by that amount. This helps out recent closers (Wetteland and L.Smith) more than it helps the fireman of the 70s, so I’m unsure of how best to approach the problem.
5.Tommy John – A quarter century of average manages to build an impressive resume.
6.Lee Smith – Less than the Goose, but I can’t see putting Gossage on the ballot & leaving Smith off.
7.Dale Murphy – Peak considerations jump Murphy over Dawson
8.Andre Dawson – Possibly my favorite chapter of Paths to Glory was on the late 70s / early 80s Expos. Interesting team before my time. No WS appearances in a small market, so stories have not been told about them.
9.Jack Morris – Dutch Leonard, Dizzy Trout, Bucky Walters territory. Which is ballot-worthy to me.
10.Albert Belle – Could have Hershiser, Concepcion, or Mattingly here instead, but it’s hard to ignore the monster peak. Only needed 1-2 more All-Star level years to jump to No. 2 on the ballot.

Happy New Year everybody.
   10. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: January 02, 2006 at 05:56 PM (#1802967)
1) Blyleven
2) Trammell
3) Gossage
   11. Gromit Posted: January 02, 2006 at 05:58 PM (#1802969)
1) Blyleven
2) Trammell
3) Gossage
   12. Rusty Priske Posted: January 02, 2006 at 06:03 PM (#1802973)
Bert Blyleven
Will Clark
Dave Concepcion
Andre Dawson
Steve Garvey
Tommy John
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Jim Rice
Alan Trammell
   13. andrew siegel Posted: January 02, 2006 at 06:04 PM (#1802975)
My ballot is the same as John Murphy's--same players, same order, same reasons. For the ease of those tabulating votes, that means I am voting for:

W. Clark
   14. waitingtoderail Posted: January 02, 2006 at 06:12 PM (#1802984)
1. Blyleven.
2. Gossage.
3. John.
4. Rice.
   15. Adam Schafer Posted: January 02, 2006 at 06:20 PM (#1802987)
1. Blyleven
2. Trammell
3. Gossage
4. Sutter

I'm not a small HOF advocate at all, but Parker, Dawson, John, Rice, and Lee Smith all just miss my ballot by narrow margins.
   16. "Catching Dianetics" by Dr. L. Ron Karkovice Posted: January 02, 2006 at 06:21 PM (#1802989)
</b>1. Bert Blyleven- Normally, some writer will take a borderline candidate and make a simplistic statistical comparisson to an established hall of famer (did you know had more Home Runs than Ducky Medwick, Ray Schalk and Rabitt Maranville combined?!?) Blyleven, on the other hand, matches up with all but the upper tier of Hall of Fame Pitchers,...The fact that most sportswriters point to "wins" and "heart" and "presence" and "feel" as the primary reasons for barring him is reason enough for me to push for his enshrinement

Rich Gossage- Clearing up the eventual logjam that will result when the writers finally realize they have to elect SOME RELIEF PITCHER TO THE HALL before Mariano Rivera. Rich belongs alongside Rollie Fingers and Jan Stenrud....Ooops, wrong sport.

Albert Belle Not a long career, but out of 10.5 seasons he had 10 SOLID SEASONS, 7 of which could be considered dominant. If he was a little nicer to the media, he would be a 1st ballot guy.

Andre Dawson In the early 1980's, Dawson was the pre-steroid era equivelant of Vladimir Guerrero. I could understand if he didn't make it, but I think he belongs.

ALan Trammell It's pretty sad that Trammell likely won't come close to making the Hall from the Writer's. In contrast, Jeter's career offensive stats will not look too much better than Trammell (in a totally different era), with much worse defense...yet the writers will likely put Jeter in unanimously in his first ballot...Well your at it, the HOM should award Trammell his rightly deserved 1987 AL MVP

Jim Rice He sure seemed dominant at the time. So he wasn't the Ted Williams like slugger I once envisioned him to be. On the other hand, he also isn't a glorified Phil Plantier like many have made him out to be. If I can't vote for Dick Allen (who gets my veteran vote) than I am voting for Rice.

Bruce Sutter If he hadn't singlehandedly, with only divine inspiration, invented the most devestating pitch ever thrown by man, beast or cricketer, most pitchers would have simply given up by now and reverted to politely throwing underhand eefus pitches :) Actually, Sutter was a dominant reliever and belongs.

Will Clark<b> Man, I never realize how consistently great Clark was. He left while still on top of his game
   17. cal Posted: January 02, 2006 at 06:55 PM (#1803011)
1. Trammell
2. Blyleven
3. Gossage
4. Rice
5. Sutter
   18. Daryn Posted: January 02, 2006 at 07:25 PM (#1803044)
My cutoff line is whether the player is among the top 215 players in history. While I have ten on my ballot, I don't believe any others qualify. I could have had as few as 4: Belle, Clark, John, Parker, Trammell and Dawson were close calls, and may or may not make my theoretical pHoM. So was Sutter. There is little difference between the 150th best player and the 300th best player, so it is tough to tell whether one qualifies or not without following the process we are engaging in at the Hall of Merit.

The list is in alphabetical order.

Belle Blyleven Clark Dawson Gossage John Parker Rice Smith Trammell
   19. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 02, 2006 at 07:54 PM (#1803085)
I am numbering the player so that the ballot conters know who I am coting for. This is in no way a ranking...

1. Blyleven - Easily teh best player on the ballot

2. Gossage - There are only three relievers in history that I am confident are HOFers: Gossage, Wilhelm, and Rivera. Sutter, Fingers, Eckersly, Smith, Quisenberry,a nd Hoffman are all gusy that I can see either in or out, though all of them shouldn't be in.

3. Don Mattingly - I think that WS underrates his fielding. WARP acutally likes him more than Clark. Very nice peak and a few years outside of it that are good as well. Very similar to George Sisler historically, though a bit better.

4. Will Clark - Big peak in both WS and WARP, great hitter and a very good fielder as well. Of the second tier 1B guys (hernandez, McGriff, Mattingly, Clark, Perez, Garvey), Clark was the best, followed by Donnie Baseball. None of the others are HOFers.

5. Albert Belle - the only reason he seems to have a short career is that he didn't play a number of below average seasons at the end of his career. he has only one fewer 15 WS seasons than Jim Rice and the same number as Dawson and Parker. However, he has a very large peak when you adjust for the strike.

Just missed

Alan Trammell - I have run him through my WS system and he is only slightly better than Rizzuto, Stephens, and Sewell. He is very very close but I would rather be safe than sorry.

Dave Parker - Seems like Ducky Medwick but without as many 20 WS seasons surrounding his peak.

Dale Murphy - A little better than Wally Berger (whom I like). By the time that Parker and Murphy become eligible for the HOM, I may end up supporting them. I am just going to be safe here, however.

Sutter and Smith - I am being careful with closers and both of these gusy have real faults, namely not being Gossage.

Not really HOFers
Tommy John - I disagree with a post I saw earlier today where you can be Rick Rhoden for 20 years and still make the HOF. John was not really that good at any one point.

Jim Rice - One more 15 WS season than Belle without the peak of either Belle of Parker. Only 27 more career WS then Belle as well and Belle gets a lot of flack for his short career.

Andre Dawson - Never had a 30 WS season, never that significant of a player. Looked a lot better than he actually was. He will never make my top 50 for the HOM. I even like Rice more.

Morris - Simply not a HOFer. Got a lot of wins playing for good teams. More famous than good.

Garvey and Concepcion - blend Beckley's peak with much shorter careers and no misunderstandings about the value of their defense. Neither should be considered viable candidates.

I would write in for Darrel Evans, Bobby Grich, Dick Allen, and Ron Santo. Go any further back in history and the list will be too long.
   20. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 02, 2006 at 07:57 PM (#1803090)
Much smaller ballot than I had planned...
   21. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder Posted: January 02, 2006 at 07:59 PM (#1803091)
   22. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: January 02, 2006 at 08:15 PM (#1803113)
   23. alilisd Posted: January 02, 2006 at 08:26 PM (#1803128)
Bert Blyleven - Longevity along with many seasons where he was a dominant pitcher although playing for poor teams.

Dave Concepcion - His peak WARP3 over six seasons is only 6 wins below Trammell, or only one win per year, and his peak defense was a bit better. Pretty comparable to Ozzie Smith although Ozzie maintained his defensive prowess for a longer period.

Rich Gossage - Pitched in more high leverage situations and in multiple inning appearances than today's closer. A dominant pitcher with exceptional K ability.

Alan Trammell - See Concepcion above.
   24. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 02, 2006 at 08:34 PM (#1803138)
22 ballots at 3:33 PM. Lot easier to get voters for this project than the Hall of Merit. :-)
   25. RC Cook Posted: January 02, 2006 at 08:36 PM (#1803141)
Lee Smith
   26. jacjacatk Posted: January 02, 2006 at 08:43 PM (#1803152)
Lee Smith
Tommy John
   27. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 02, 2006 at 08:44 PM (#1803154)
1. Bert Blyleven
2. Alan Trammell

That's all. And I'm not even a small-Hall guy.
   28. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 02, 2006 at 08:53 PM (#1803168)

And I'm not a small hall guy either. But as I rehash the arguments I've heard recently for others on the ballot, they come to sound more and more like arguments against the guys they're being compared to.
   29. dr.stu Posted: January 02, 2006 at 09:08 PM (#1803195)
Lee Smith
   30. Brent Posted: January 02, 2006 at 09:09 PM (#1803198)
2006 HOF ballot

Although this election runs by different rules, I’m used to doing HoM-style ballots, so I’ve ranked the candidates and indicated where they would fit in relative to the current HoM backlog. My plan was to cut off the ballot where it reached the level of the lowest ranking member of my personal hall of merit—Tommie Leach—though as we’ll see, that’s not quite where I wound up drawing the line.

1. Bert Blyleven – Over 14 seasons (1971-78, 81, 84-87, 89) he averaged 16-13, 2.2 wins above team, 264 IP, 130 DERA+, 200 SO, 69 BB. Blyleven’s candidacy is supported by what Bill James refers to as the “highest common denominator” criterion—“there are many players with comparable records who are in the Hall of Fame, and there are no players with comparable records who are NOT in the Hall of Fame.”

2. Will Clark – With a seven-year peak in win shares of 44-37-34-28-27*-25-25 (* adjusting WS for 1994 to 162 games), Clark’s candidacy is also supported by the highest common denominator argument. Based on WS, a couple of HoM/HoF comps might be Frank Baker and Al Simmons. (I’m not aware of a good comp at first base, though Clark ranks well ahead of marginal HoFers like Bill Terry.). Clark’s greatness is masked by a peak spent at a pitchers’ park just prior to an era of offensive explosion.

3. Goose Gossage – Enough relief aces have now come and gone for us to recognize that this pioneer in the role was one of the all-time greats.

(Méndez, Griffith, Duffy)

4. Dave Parker – Although he’ll never be elected by the writers, I think his statistics are strong enough to ensure his eventual enshrinement.

(Welch, Walters, Dean, Rizzuto)

5. Albert Belle – Comparing him to his short-career comps—Kiner and Keller—I rank them Keller-Kiner-Belle as hitters, Keller-Belle-Kiner as fielders, and Belle-Kiner-Keller on peak and also on career length. My overall ranking is Belle-Keller-Kiner. I suppose I’ll take a closer look at the character issues when the HoM gets around to Belle’s name, but based on a first look I didn’t see much evidence indicating that his misconduct hurt his teams, other than the occasional suspension.

(Oms, W Brown, Grimes)

6. Dale Murphy – As a superstar who didn’t age gracefully, many seem to have forgotten the multiple talents of power, speed, and defense that made him one of the top players in baseball from 1980-87.


7. Don Mattingly – I’ll have to admit that I was taken aback after looking up his record on bbref and scrolling down to “Postseason Batting” to see only a single appearance—in the 1995 AL Division Series. I’m sure you Yankee fans never forget that long drought, but to the rest of us it can sure seem like the team has always been there in October.

(Keller, Bresnahan)

8. Alan Trammell – I know that at least 95 percent of you will disagree with my relative rankings of Rizzuto and Trammell, but I place a lot of weight on defense, especially at shortstop. Given the choice between an above-average defensive shortstop with an OPS+ of 110 and one of the all-time defensive greats with an OPS+ of 93, I’ll go with the glove.

(Bell, Leach)

9. Andre Dawson – Ok – I said I had intended to cut off the voting when I got to Leach, but I’ve decided to add one more name. Murphy and Dawson are so closely linked in my mind that even though I'm comfortable placing Murphy ahead of Dawson, I’m just not comfortable drawing the in-out line between them. Also, I think that by the time Dawson becomes eligible, it’s likely that the in-out line for my personal hall of merit will have dipped below Leach.

Missing from my ballot:

Jim Rice – I agree with the sentiment that he’s one of the most overrated players; relative to my current HoM backlog he’d rank about # 30.
Bruce Sutter – That’s also about where I currently have Sutter slotted, though I’ll admit the interleaving of relief pitchers with the rest of my rankings is somewhat arbitrary. For now I’m being conservative with the relief pitchers.
Orel Hershiser – Weren’t there any HoM/HoF-quality starting pitchers with careers centered in the 1980s? Apparently not, as he and Stieb fall short. Hershiser would rank about # 40 in my HoM backlog.
Lee Smith – he’d be in the 70s.
Dave Concepcion – also in the 70s.
Steve Garvey – Another overrated player, I’d place him in the 80s.
Tommy John – Despite a long career, his performance never rose to the level of greatness. I’m not fond of this type of candidate, and he wouldn’t make the top 100 of my current backlog.
Jack Morris – I do give credit for post-season performance, but apparently not nearly as much as the writers give.
Dwight Gooden – If greatness were defined on the basis of one season, he’d be our missing 1980s pitcher.
   31. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 02, 2006 at 09:12 PM (#1803202)
I think Will Clark was a very good, criminally underrated player, but even I am surprised at how much support he's getting here.
   32. bartap74 Posted: January 02, 2006 at 09:17 PM (#1803210)
   33. sunnyday2 Posted: January 02, 2006 at 09:19 PM (#1803211)
>22 ballots at 3:33 PM. Lot easier to get voters for this project than the Hall of Merit. :-)

Well, wait until we're voting for these same guys for the HoM ;-(
   34. villainx Posted: January 02, 2006 at 09:20 PM (#1803213)

I am a small hall guy, by the way. I considered Trammell and Belle, but could wait another year for more evaluation.
   35. Jack Sommers Posted: January 02, 2006 at 09:35 PM (#1803224)
   36. sunnyday2 Posted: January 02, 2006 at 09:48 PM (#1803230)

According to the rules of the HoF vote, you may never get another chance to re-evaluate Trammell and Belle (if they fail to pull 5%).
   37. AJMcCringleberry Posted: January 02, 2006 at 09:49 PM (#1803233)
   38. Srul Itza Posted: January 02, 2006 at 09:55 PM (#1803244)
Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Alan Trammell
   39. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 02, 2006 at 10:10 PM (#1803286)

I am probably misreading what you said, but WARP3 contains defense. So Concepcion was six wins worse over his top six years as Trammell with defense already factored in.

I am most surprised at the support for Concepcion and Trammell as they would be well outside my top 50 if they were currently eligible for HOM. Then again, so are Mickey Welch and Jake Beckley.
   40. thranduil Posted: January 02, 2006 at 10:22 PM (#1803315)
Bert Blyleven
Rich Gossage
Alan Trammell

Parker, Dawson, Belle are close in my eyes but I can't bring myself to put them all over the line.

Will Clark: my favorite player growing up. It's hard to not vote for him. I've been quite fascinated by all the analysis going on about him. Based on what it looks like here, he might get 40% yet drop off next year's BBWAA ballot.
   41. John Posted: January 02, 2006 at 10:32 PM (#1803331)
In order of preference:

   42. Argonautical Posted: January 02, 2006 at 10:36 PM (#1803342)
   43. KJOK Posted: January 02, 2006 at 10:37 PM (#1803344)
1. Blyleven
2. Trammell
3. Belle
   44. semajllibfonaf Posted: January 02, 2006 at 11:13 PM (#1803400)
1. Bert Blyleven - Everything a "second-ballot" HOFer should be.
2.Alan Trammell – As above: didn't the writers actually SEE him play?3.Rich Gossage - I hated him, but I sure don't understand why he's not in.
4.Tommy John – My best example of someone "on the deserving side" of the boderline. If only the "run-of-the-mill" HOFer was this deserving!
5. Will Clark - Unlike the above picks, I'm not automatically sure about Will C. and the below going in THIS YEAR, but I think that's because I thought he would be even better than he was, and he WAS great!
6. Don Mattingly - Dang if I know who was the better 1B, him or Will, except that I was a Giants fan, and hate the Yankees.
7. Lee Smith – His stats leave me no choice.
8. Jim Rice – Something about him has been lost to the years. He should eventually be voted in.

-- Akemashite Omedetou Gozaimasu!
   45. SABRJoe Posted: January 02, 2006 at 11:19 PM (#1803414)
   46. Scoriano Flitcraft Posted: January 02, 2006 at 11:55 PM (#1803483)
Bert Blyleven
Rich Gossage
   47. yest Posted: January 03, 2006 at 12:14 AM (#1803520)
Since a big chunk of the voters aren't HoM voters if it's not to hard can you also give the results if there were only HoM voters voting
   48. rdfc Posted: January 03, 2006 at 12:31 AM (#1803566)
   49. Mark Donelson Posted: January 03, 2006 at 12:32 AM (#1803569)
W. Clark
   50. Rafael Bellylard: The Grinch of Orlando. Posted: January 03, 2006 at 01:07 AM (#1803614)
As a "small hall" person, I have a tendency to look at nominees with an eye on why they shouldn't be in as much as why they should. I'm dividing up my groups by who I would vote for and who are borderline. And when I mean "borderline", I mean I can see valid arguments to pu them in. I also tend to put emphasis on AS appearances and MVP/CY voting as references on how these players were regarded in their era.

On the Ballot:

1. Albert Belle: I'm surprised just how dominant he was in a relatively short career. Had he played a few more years to build up his totals, he'd be a no-brainer.

2. Goose Gossage: The thing that caught my attention most was he received votes in 5 different seasons for league MVP, not just Cy Young or the Rolaids award. That's strong.

3. Bruce Sutter: Was an All-Star in for half the years of his career. Also had the most CY shares of the three relievers on the ballot. Sometimes being the first of a type weighs in your favor.


Tommy John and Bert Blyleven: I wrote a long post on why I wouldn't vote for Bert. I wouldn't argue against him being in, but the fact he only managed to be chosen for 2 All-Star Games and received CY votes in only 4 seasons in such a long career hints towards him qualifying for the Hall of the Very Good. John has many of the same problems. They both have impressive career stats, but neither have any peak value to speak of.

Will Clark, Don Mattingly and Steve Garvey: Garvey is not nearly as good as the other two, even though he put up some impressive AS numbers (10 in 19 years). You can dissect Clark and Mattingly's numbers from now until Doomsday to determine who was better, but you might as well throw their names in a hat and draw one. It'll be faster and about as accurate. If you put in one, you have to put in the other.

Alan Trammell: I think he has the "for a shortstop" problem. His batting average is good....for a shortstop. His power numbers are good....for a shortstop. He was an All-Star in 6 of 20 years, which is solid for a guy not playing in a media center. For me, he was the one that I could move onto my ballot the easiest.

Dawson, Parker, Rice, Murphy: All excellent of's who all have just enough flaws to keep them off my ballot. If I used solely my All-Star and MVP award criteria, they'd all be close:

Dawson: 8 All-Star Apprearences, 9 MVP ballots, 2.36 MVP shares
Parker: 7 All-Star Apprearences, 9 MVP ballots, 3.19 MVP shares
Rice: 8 All-Star Apprearences, 7 MVP ballots, 3.15 MVP shares
Murphy: 7 All-Star Apprearences, 7 MVP ballots, 2.31 MVP shares

Lee Smith: If this were a horse race, Gossage and Sutter would be a dead heat and Smith would behind by a neck. He'd probably make my ballot when he's not in direct comparison with the other two.
   51. John Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: January 03, 2006 at 01:08 AM (#1803617)
   52. Halofan Posted: January 03, 2006 at 01:09 AM (#1803618)
   53. Halofan Posted: January 03, 2006 at 01:13 AM (#1803624)
WRITE IN: Bobby Grich
   54. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 03, 2006 at 01:22 AM (#1803631)
>22 ballots at 3:33 PM. Lot easier to get voters for this project than the Hall of Merit. :-)

Well, wait until we're voting for these same guys for the HoM ;-(

I hear you, Marc.
   55. Petro Posted: January 03, 2006 at 01:33 AM (#1803642)

Write In: Rose
   56. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 03, 2006 at 01:52 AM (#1803667)
Since a big chunk of the voters aren't HoM voters if it's not to hard can you also give the results if there were only HoM voters voting

That shouldn't be a problem, yest.
   57. Who Swished In Your Cornflakes? Posted: January 03, 2006 at 01:57 AM (#1803672)
HoF: Blyleven, Gossage, Trammell, Clark

Not Quite: Dawson, Murphy, Sutter, Belle, Rice

...Apparently Rose is still indulging his other favorite pastime. Well, that and selling himself. A friend of mine found him in Las Vegas over New Year's. Rickey Henderson was there too. He's in whenever he finally decides to hang up the spikes.
   58. alilisd Posted: January 03, 2006 at 02:24 AM (#1803693)
jschmeagol, thank you for the correction. I honestly did not realize WARP3 included defense; I thought it was solely an offensive metric. I'd like to withdraw my vote for Concepcion if that is the case.
   59. ckash Posted: January 03, 2006 at 03:06 AM (#1803744)
   60. LargeBill Posted: January 03, 2006 at 03:37 AM (#1803798)
Smith, Lee
   61. Chris Cobb Posted: January 03, 2006 at 03:56 AM (#1803830)
In alphabetical order, without too much analysis.

Albert Belle -- Doesn't get any congeniality points, but he played hard and he played well.
Bert Blyleven -- Immensely overqualified.
Will "The Thrill" Clark -- Underappreciated peak.
Andre Dawson -- Gets character points for sending blank contract to Cubs to break through collusion.
Goose Gossage -- Perhaps the 2nd best relief pitcher of all time
Tommy John -- Unspectacular but effective.
Dale Murphy -- Underappreciated peak.
Dave Parker -- Loses points on character issues, but still on-ballot.
Bruce Sutter -- Revolutionary pitcher.
Alan Trammell -- Complete player.
   62. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 03, 2006 at 03:58 AM (#1803832)

Being good for a long time is my standard of greatness, rather than being dominant for a short time. More players have done the latter than the former, so the former is to be more highly regarded.

write-ins: Rose, Lou Whitaker.
   63. Taps Posted: January 03, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#1803849)
Will Clark
Don Mattingly
Dave Concepcion
Alan Trammell
Dale Murphy
Andre Dawson
Dave Parker
Bert Blyleven
Rich Gossage
Bruce Sutter
   64. Eugene Freedman Posted: January 03, 2006 at 04:18 AM (#1803850)
In Alphabetical Order
1. Albert Belle - loved him
2. Bert Blyleven - deserved it years ago
3. Will Clark - never liked him, but his stats surprise
4. Andre Dawson - borderline, but in
5. Rich Gossage - yes, but not Sutter or Smith
6. Tommy John - yes- a trailblazer
7. Alan Trammell - after Blyleven my second best candidate
write ins-
8. Lou Whitaker - near equal to Trammmell and Sandberg
9. Ted Simmons - 1 year and out- what a joke
10. Dwight Evens - much better than Rice
   65. Boof Bonser Tree Posted: January 03, 2006 at 04:23 AM (#1803855)

Tony Oliva
   66. Delorians Posted: January 03, 2006 at 04:35 AM (#1803873)
J Morris
L Smith
   67. Francisco Posted: January 03, 2006 at 05:44 AM (#1803944)
   68. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: January 03, 2006 at 06:34 AM (#1803976)
Lee Smith
   69. CraigK Posted: January 03, 2006 at 07:24 AM (#1803998)
Albert Belle -- pure peak; brilliant hitter for his time being
Bert Blyleven-- why should he be punished for the luck of playing for crappy teams?
Will Clark -- I don't know; I like him; probably not going to get in for lack of counting stats, though.
Andre Dawson -- .323 OBP be damned, he could rake!
Tommy John -- pitched forever, okay peak; I'd like more than a 111 ERA+, though, but good enough.
Lee Smith -- deride saves all you want, but he's got the most of 'em; with their importance these days, he's gotta go in.
Alan Trammell -- Not his fault he retired 5 years before middle IFs started cranking homers with alarming regularity.
   70. GregD Posted: January 03, 2006 at 07:46 AM (#1804001)
I'd vote for three:

Blyleven--excellent pitcher, better than many HOFers.

Alan Trammell--I have a hard time understanding the opposition to his candidacy. Obviously a big step below Wagner, Ripken, and Arky, but in the ballpark of any other retired shortstop. Of course I don't understand Whitaker's vote total, either.

Goose Gossage--A great reliever and an important historical figure in the development of the role.
   71. CraigK Posted: January 03, 2006 at 08:20 AM (#1804007)

Up to ballot 70
59 ballots cast
Only players recieving at least one vote listed
Number after is (number of ballots listed on)/(total ballots), (percentage)

Blyleven: 56/59, 95%
Gossage: 52/59, 88%
Tramell: 46/59, 78%

Clark: 25/59, 42%
Belle: 22/59, 37%
John: 16/59, 27%
Dawson: 14/59, 24%
Sutter: 13/59
Smith, Rice, Parker: 11/59, 19%
Murphy, Mattingly: 7/59, 12%

Off Ballot: all others (I'm tired, sue me)
   72. bjsguess Posted: January 03, 2006 at 08:38 AM (#1804009)
Blyleven - no brainer - a pitcher that loses votes because he wracked up too many worthless losses on terrible teams and didn't get enough CY votes - just because they didn't appreciate him then don't disrespect the guy now
Belle - MOST dominant player in his era (degen hip disease hardly his fault)
Trammel - best shortstop amongst his peers
Goose - dominant - put fear in hitters like Belle put fear in pitchers
Murphy - numbers may not look as impressive now but compare him to his peers and what a great all-around player - could run, hit for power, field and had a cannon - being the worlds nicest guy doesn't hurt either
The Hawk - who knows what would have happened if he didn't play so many years on concrete in Montreal
Mattingly - investing in his rookie card in 1987 proved to be a bad decision on my part - however, he was simply unbelievable before his back gave out
Will Clark - hate the Giants but hard to argue against his sweet swing and soft glove
   73. BDC Posted: January 03, 2006 at 11:53 AM (#1804018)
Bert Blyleven.
   74. sunnyday2 Posted: January 03, 2006 at 11:57 AM (#1804019)
Re. #71--hey, Craig,

Tabulating and poublishing vote totals while voting is still underway is highly discouraged. Might encourage strategic voting.

But it would be allowed to note that regular HoM voters are voting for 7.4 players on average versus 4.5 for non-HoM voters. A difference of historical perspective??
   75. Shoeless Don Posted: January 03, 2006 at 01:05 PM (#1804028)
My ballot--

Lee Smith

Write in for Max Patkin...
   76. Repoz Posted: January 03, 2006 at 01:15 PM (#1804031)
   77. Evan Posted: January 03, 2006 at 01:36 PM (#1804044)
   78. sptaylor Posted: January 03, 2006 at 02:14 PM (#1804065)
Mattingly, Clark, Trammell, Murphy, Parker, Blyleven, Gossage, Sutter, Smith
   79. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 03, 2006 at 02:41 PM (#1804094)
Tabulating and poublishing vote totals while voting is still underway is highly discouraged. Might encourage strategic voting.

I'm not going to get as crazy about this as I would with the Hall of Merit, but Marc is right about this.

With that said, our tallies don't match, so I'm not sure who is right now.
   80. Chris Cobb Posted: January 03, 2006 at 02:57 PM (#1804107)
But it would be allowed to note that regular HoM voters are voting for 7.4 players on average versus 4.5 for non-HoM voters. A difference of historical perspective??

Possibly. It may be also that we are more committed to the idea of a single standard for a Hall of Fame/Merit-type organization, so we are voting according to our perceptions of the HoF's overall standard rather than according to the perceived BBWAA standards. We may also place more emphasis on the importance of perpetual eligibility, so we give borderline cases the benefit of the doubt in order to keep them eligilble for further consideration.
   81. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 03, 2006 at 03:28 PM (#1804149)
I have to admit though, my ballot was much smaller than I imagined. I just couldnt' pull the trigger on some guys with only a yes/no vote. I am kinda embarrassed as I have become a big advocate against the small hall over on the newsblog.
   82. SWW Posted: January 03, 2006 at 04:12 PM (#1804231)
Wow. Suddenly crowded in here.

Unlike my HOM ballots, candidates here will be listed in alphabetical order. And since I’m not required to use every spot, I shan’t.

<u>2006 Ballot</u>
Rik Aalbert Blyleven – “The Dutch Master”
Great line from a recent Rob Neyer column: “Blyleven's qualifications are so obvious, so compelling that reasonable citizens of the reality-based community have lined up behind him everywhere.” Glad to be part of the community.
Andre Nolan Dawson – “Hawk”
Best of the available outfielders, with the lengthy career that I tend to like, despite repeated injuries. Plus, he's part of my covert campaign to pack the Hall with Expos.
Richard Michael Gossage – “Goose”
Tops among eligible relievers. My vivid memories of hating the Yankees feature Gossage prominently.
Howard Bruce Sutter
A shorter career than I usually favor, but I find his dominant period convincing. His 300 saves are far more impressive to me than Lee Smith’s 470.

And that's all. I vote for four candidates.

Of those off the ballot, I’m becoming more and more convinced about Alan Trammell, and less and less convinced about Jim Rice. I have great admiration for Tommy John, but his career numbers – other than wins – just aren’t quite there. Will Clark is the best of the newcomers, but the bar for first basemen is set much higher than him. As regards Albert Belle, he was a monstrous hitter, but as destructive as he was constructive. I can’t support his candidacy.
   83. sunnyday2 Posted: January 03, 2006 at 04:23 PM (#1804248)
My personal preference would be for a small hall, about the size of what the BBWAA has selected over the years, or about half the size of Cooperstown or the HoM.

Meanwhile, in the real world and in the imaginery world of the HoM, the number of honorees is and will be 220 or so, it won't be my small hall.

I can separate the two (or three). It's just a matter of drawing the line in different places.

• For my small hall, I wouldn't have voted for any of these guys.
• For Cooperstown there are about 14 who are better than the lower 25 percentile of honorees. • For the HoM we've established a higher and more stable minimum standard. In theory the line would be in the same place as Cooperstown, but just by being more consistent (and electing more NeLers, at least for now, until the NeL committee weighs in this month), I would say that about 8 players on this list might make my HoM.
   84. sunnyday2 Posted: January 03, 2006 at 04:24 PM (#1804252)
Now the difference is down to about 7.2 versus 4.5.
   85. Mister High Standards Posted: January 03, 2006 at 05:24 PM (#1804375)
Allan Trammell
   86. Mister High Standards Posted: January 03, 2006 at 05:25 PM (#1804377)
Alan rather.
   87. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 03, 2006 at 05:47 PM (#1804419)
In no order

Bert Blyleven: Best eligible candidate by far
Goose Gossage: Best relief ace available (I think)
Will Clark: Borderliner who is better than Terry, Cepeda, or Sisler.
Alan Trammell: Right on the edge for SS, but just this side of the in/out line.
Orel Hershiser: An impressive five-year peak that, in context, helps him exceed the limitations that the five-man rotation places on HOF candidates. Also he was very sporting, could hit a little, fielded his position well, and exuded that character/integrity stuff.
Lee Smith: Long, successfull career, effective, used a lot, used in decent leverage.
Bruce Sutter: Short, successful career, highly effective, used a lot, used in decent leverage, plus first use of splitter. And a great beard too.
<strike>Gary Disarscina</strike>: Oops!
   88. Dread Pirate Dave Roberts Posted: January 03, 2006 at 06:14 PM (#1804481)
Albert Belle
Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Goose Gossage
Alan Trammell
   89. DanG Posted: January 03, 2006 at 07:02 PM (#1804554)
I always vote for ten, in an effort to bring fair representation in the Coop to recent players. If I could, I would list about five more eligible players. Career WARP3 is shown:

138.6 Blyleven
117.6 Trammell
113.1 John
101.3 Clark
99.4 Dawson
90.1 Murphy
88.5 Belle
84.0 Gossage
78.8 Parker
55.2 Sutter

And ten more who should still be on the BBWAA ballot, but were victimized by the 5% rule:

121.3 Whitaker
115.4 Grich
113.5 Dw Evans
110.5 Da Evans
108.4 Randolph
103.2 B Bell
102.4 K Hernandez
101.3 Nettles
100.9 Simmons
96.4 Lan Parrish
   90. TomH Posted: January 03, 2006 at 07:08 PM (#1804565)
9 "YES" votes
Blyleven my #1 pick
Clark W
Trammell my #2 pick

barely missed
Sutter - short on career value
Rice - some good post-season ##s or pennant-race ##s would help
   91. The Balls of Summer Posted: January 03, 2006 at 07:16 PM (#1804579)
Blyleven - I've participated in all of the Lederer threads this year and rest on my arguments.
Clark - Didn't originally think he was HOF material, but many smart people have convinced me.
Gossage - Best relief ace this side of Rivera.
Trammell - What's a guy gotta do?
   92. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 03, 2006 at 07:18 PM (#1804583)

Are those last ten on your ballot write-ins> They appear to be, but I want to make sure.
   93. sasquatch83 Posted: January 03, 2006 at 07:22 PM (#1804591)
Blyleven and Gossage need to be in. That's my entire ballot though, if only because I think a first ballot vote is reserved for the greatest of the great.

I can't vote for Trammell, even though I like him a lot - he should have won a MVP (87), and was part of some historically memorable teams, but he just wasn't consistent enough (only 9 of 20 seasons with an OPS+ over 100 just isn't HoF for me).

I should vote for Belle, but I can't do it for some reason. I just don't like the man enough to make him a first ballot.

And Will Clark - great competitor, defines the word consistency, a pleasure to watch play the game. Not to mention the fact that he was my favorite player growing up as a kid. But if I voted for him on the first ballot, I'd vote for John Olerud in 5 years too, and I'm undecided about that one. .
   94. sunnyday2 Posted: January 03, 2006 at 07:27 PM (#1804603)
Now back up to 7.4 to 4.4.
   95. John DiFool2 Posted: January 03, 2006 at 07:34 PM (#1804620)
Is it allowed to debate candidates in this thread? If so I want to
discuss Will Clark in relation to the "other" Clark, Jack. OPS+
virtually identical, PA virtually identical, durability slight edge
to Will, defense at first edge to Will but Jack played the OF for his
first 10 years (and showed a good arm), so that's a wash, Will did
have a better peak. I've seen no discussion of Jack's merits here
(he dropped of the ballot due to the 5% rule), so my question to those
who are voting for Will...would you vote for Jack too?

My problem with Will is that there are too many sluggers on the left
end of the defensive spectrum who are too similar to him.
   96. Al Peterson Posted: January 03, 2006 at 07:40 PM (#1804632)
Look at me. I'm not a BBWAA voter but I play one on this website.

Bert Blyleven
Will Clark
Andre Dawson
Goose Gossage
Jim Rice
Alan Trammell

For this Hall of Fame vote I'm a little analytical, a little of the gut feeling about a player. I'd say Blyleven, Clark, Gossage and Trammell are value based selections. Dawson and Rice are borderline but go over the top when I add in the "Fame" part of this Hall.

Outside looking in are Belle, Sutter, and Mattingly. I'm not so peak heavy to let them in. Belle has the best case but he really doesn't help himself when you get to the part about "integrity, sportsmanship, character".
   97. DanG Posted: January 03, 2006 at 07:47 PM (#1804643)

Are those last ten on your ballot write-ins> They appear to be, but I want to make sure.

Yeah, John, except for Buddy Bell. And if I had more than ten spots, I would also add Mattingly, Rice, Concepcion, Morris and Lee Smith.
   98. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 03, 2006 at 08:36 PM (#1804747)
Mr. DiFool,

We have a discussion thread, which is probably the place to do this. Go to the Hall of Merit page, it should be on the hot topics bar there.

I would say no Clark because of his peak. Clark has a really really nice peak in a mini pitcher's era (88-90). I think Will is much better than jack. Then again i am a big peak guy.
   99. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 03, 2006 at 08:37 PM (#1804748)
that is no to Jack and Yes to Will. damn.
   100. Rob_Wood Posted: January 03, 2006 at 09:31 PM (#1804846)
Bert Blyleven
Bruce Sutter
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