I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Cal Ripken-SS/3B (n/e): The greatest AL shortstop of all-time at his retirement. Best ML shortstop for 1983, 1984, (close in 1985), 1986, 1989 and 1991. Best AL shortstop for 1985 and 1994.

2) Tony Gwynn-RF/CF (n/e): Possibly the greatest hitter for batting average ever. Best ML right fielder for 1984, 1986. Best NL right fielder for 1989 and 1994.

3) Mark McGwire-1B (n/e): Best power hitter of his generation...well, until Bonds decided to do whatever you think he did. Best ML first baseman for 1998. Best AL first baseman for 1987, 1988, 1996.

4) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (1): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

5) Lee Smith-RP (2): Having his career occur during a major rethinking of his position really distorts his true value, IMO. All things equal, Gossage was better, but not that much better. Never the best for any one season, but consistently among the best for many a year.

6) Bucky Walters-P (3): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

7) Mickey Welch-P (4): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

8) Vic Willis-P (5): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

9) Gavvy Cravath-RF (7): I buy the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11 (not full credit for '08, since he did play some in the majors that year). Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

10) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (9): Best third baseman of the Forties. He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career when compared to other third basemen throughout history. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

11) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (10): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

12) Pie Traynor-3B (11): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

13) Burleigh Grimes-P (12): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

14) Bobby Bonds (13): One of my favorites growing up as a kid. He could do it all. Made his debut on my 3rd birthday, which I believe means something. Best ML right fielder for 1970 (close in 1971). Best NL right fielder for 1971 and 1973.

15) Reggie Smith (14): Underrated since he could do everything well instead of being a specialist in one area. Best AL rightfielder for 1972. Close to being the best AL centerfielder for 1968. Best NL rightfielder for 1974.

Redding, Johnson, Saberhagen, McGraw and Perez all exist in my top-40, but they just fall short.

2007 Ballot – More shakeups this week. I have used a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m relying less on WS of late.

1. Cal Ripken. Next.

2. Tony Gwynn. Next, Part II.

3. Mark McGwire. Just looking at the stats, it should be Next, Part III. I don’t boycott, mainly because I wasn’t a part of the situation. For the Black Sox era, I believe that throwing games was a common occurrence, so I didn’t penalize Joe Jackson for getting caught doing something that everyone did. I feel the same way about McGwire. I wasn’t a major league player during the time McGwire played, and I have no idea how prevalent steroid use was, but I believe it was common, so I don’t penalize those who were caught.

4. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined.

5. John McGraw. I have had McGraw high before. Looking at the 3B on my ballot and available for election, I think that John J. just had the unique skill set that makes him Meritorious.

6. Larry Doyle. His hitting peak continues to impress me as unique.

7. Bob Johnson. Strong player every year of his 12-year career. At 38, did what a HOMer is supposed to do in a wartime league.

8. Tommy Leach. A good player from an underrepresented period.

9. Sal Bando. High enough late-60’s early 70’s peak that comparables like Bell and Cey seem to lack.

10. Dizzy Dean. Seems a better choice than Walters. Outstanding from 1932-1937, and even when he was able to pitch for the rest of his career.

11. George Van Haltren. Still some support from me.

12. Bill Monroe. I nearly forgot him last week.

13. Tony Perez. The longetivity is too much for me to ignore.

14. Ben Taylor. I think Ben was a smidgen better than Jake Beckley. I have no idea what KJOK has discovered to drop Taylor from the ballot.

15. Reggie Smith. Some playing time issues, which I am working through.

LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

SP. Bucky Walters. What a pitching peak, but too much of the peak is war years.

SP. Bret Saberhagen. Another great peak, but he has PT issues.

PHoM: Cal, Tony & Mark


1. Cal Ripken Jr. (new)

"So, that was your vocation."

2. Tony Gwynn (new)

My only question is whether these two won't be 1-2 on EVERY ballot.

3. Tony Perez (1,3,3)

He had made his way up to #1 on my ballot before those two shoe-ins got in the way.

4. Reggie Smith (2,5,6)

As these last two remind folks, I'm a career voter and I think any career award (like HoF or HoM), should be based on career numbers.

5. Mark McGwire (new)

Belongs. There is NO reason to boycott.

6. George van Haltren (5,6,4)

I remember the year he was the runner up and I said, "Well, that's it. He's never getting in now." Some people disagreed. Unfortunately, I was right.

7. Tommy Leach (4,4,5)

He is a similar position as GVH.

8. Mickey Welch (6,7,10)

ibid

9. Rusty Staub (8,10,8)

Another career guy. This one also has the best first name ever.

10. Dick Lundy (x,x,x)

Joining the Dick push... too little, too late.

11. Lou Brock (9,8,7)

SBs count.

12. Hugh Duffy (10,11,11)

Leading the ballot-rounders.

13. Ken Singleton (11,12,13)

Solid player but doesn't inspire the voters/

14. Harold Baines (new)

Overlooked in a good year.

15. Bob Johnson (12,13,15)

16-20. Murphy, Redding, Cash, Willis, Puckett
21-25. Bonds, Cepeda, Mullane, Streeter, Grimes
26-30. Strong, John, Monroe, Greene, Gleason

Joining the Dick push

Kinky.

2007

Again, I’m mostly a peak/prime Win Shares voter though I look at a lot of information—especially my own annual MVP ballot and all-star selections, OPS+ and ERA+, HoFS, HoFM, ink, etc.—in trying to correctly interpret the numbers. Lately I’ve been looked at WS above the position median though it’s a slow process to roll that through all the candidates, though I’ve got most of them now. I could discover other players who do well on this in the future, however.

2007 PHoM—Ripken, McGwire, Gwynn

* PHoM/not HoM so far 21st century elections—Puckett, Mattingly, Munson, Dean, Pesky, Rosen, Duffy, Walters, Belle

HoM/not PHoM 21st century elections—Trammell, Whitaker, Randolph, Stieb, Bresnahan, Oms, Nettles

1. Cal Ripken (new, PHoM 2007)
2. Mark McGwire (new, PHoM 2007)
3. Tony Gwynn (new, PHoM 2007)—no boycott for McGwire; 3 exceptionally easy choices; and the order is not hard either, though many will prefer Gwynn to McGwire; for me McGwire’s peak is just too much, one of the 2 or 3 best non-Bonds seasons of the past quarter-century

4. Ed Williamson (2-3-12, PHoM 1924)
5. Kirby Puckett (13-15-3, PHoM 2001)—two oddly comparable players 100 years apart; two not-long thought not-quite-short careers, both exceptionally durable in-season (Ed led the league in games 4 times, Puckett >150 games 8 times; both played both sides of the ball pretty well; for Puckett, +107 WS versus the median CF compared to Dale Murphy at +75.5 or Reggie Smith at +71; that’s not a knock on Murphy and Reggie, BTW, +70s are pretty good

6. Dizzy Dean (1-2-2, PHoM 2002)—for a peak voter, the one big oversight of the HoM project to date; even with a short prime (6 years), the +39 WS above the “median ace” is the best available (tied with Walters)

7. Dick Lundy (7-20-35, PHoM 2006)—there is no precedent for not balloting (or electing) a SS with 16 years as a regular, 9300 PA and 347 WS (adjusted to 162 games). Note that his new OBA, based on the HoF and Cuban League data, is .347 versus Ozzie at .337. His new OPS+ is 104 versus Ozzie at 87. With 33 percent of his value on defense and 110 defensive WS, I’m guessing that makes him about an A- glove, same as Pee Wee Reese (OPS+ 98) and Joe Sewell (109). Trammell is a B glove with a 110 and 325 WS (after adjusting 1981)

8. Albert Belle (6-new, PHoM 2006)—WS peak beyond question at 37-34-34-31 (with 1994 and 1995 adjusted appropriately), positively Keller-ish

9. Larry Doyle (8-9-8, PHoM 1975)—at his best, a deserving NL MVP on a pennant-winning team; about 9 WS per year better than the median NL 2B

10. Don Newcombe (4-6-7, PHoM 1997
11. Elston Howard (3-5-5, PHoM 1994)—2 guys who missed more opportunities than anybody, Newk coulda been Robin Roberts, for Howard the comp is somewhere between Freehan and Cochrane; Newk was +3 WS per year better than the median “ace” which puts him in Stieb territory even without any MiL (integration) or Korea (military) credit, both of which he obviously deserves; Howard is +61 WS versus the median AL catcher

(10a. Alan Trammell [13a-15a-24a])

12. Tommy Bond (9-8-11, PHoM 1929)—he’s baaaack; pretty much the all-time WS peak monster even after I give his defenses half his credit

13. Bucky Walters (12-45-38, PHoM 2006)—the big mover in my pitcher re-eval at +39 WS versus the median “ace” AFTER discounting his WWII years

14. Al Rosen (11-12-18, PHoM 2005)—the #1 WS peak of anybody in my 30 hitters, and +12 WS versus position median

15. Johnny Pesky (10-11-15, PHoM 2004)—28 WS (in his rookie season) and 34 WS in the years before and after spending 3 years fighting WWII; adjusted WS peak (adjusted to 162 games), then, is 36-30-30, compared to Rizzuto’s 37-27-26 and Trammell’s 35-29-26; rate is 23.8 to Rizzuto and Trammel’s 22.5; +7 WS per year versus position median

Drops Out

17. Hugh Duffy (14-13-34, PHoM 2005)
19. Phil Rizzuto (15-4-9, PHoM 1995)—has dropped behind both Pesky and now Lundy in recent “years”

Close—still in the running for the last backlog PHoM slot

16. Dale Murphy (16-23-16)

HoVVG

17. Hugh Duffy (14-13-34, PHoM 2005)
18. Gavvy Cravath (17-17-17, PHoM 1995)
19. Phil Rizzuto (15-4-9, PHoM 1995)
(19a. Jimmy Sheckard [19a-19a-50c])
20. Dick Redding (19-18-24, PHoM 1971)

21. Tommy Leach (18-16-28-44, PHoM 1998)
22. Ken Singleton (21-22-33)
(22a. Wes Ferrell [16a-30a-29a-27a])
23. Vern Stephens (20-19-22)
24. Reggie Smith (25-32-37, PHoM 1988)

HoVG

(24a. Jim Bunning [21a-46a-41a])
25. Dan Quisenberry (24-26-19)
26. Tony Perez (23-39-30)
(26b. Roger Bresnahan [29b-30b-20])
27. Bret Saberhagen (27-NR-new)
(27a. Dave Stieb [29a-NR-NR])
28. Dave Concepcion (28-NR-NR)
29. Dave Parker (29-21-27)
(29a. Joe Sewell [32a-32a-50b])
30. Wilbur Cooper (NR-NR-NR)

31. Hack Wilson (31-25-36)
32. Bill Monroe (33-31-32)
33. Burleigh Grimes (30-50-49)
34. Sal Bando (34-34-29)
35. Bruce Sutter (36-44-39)
36. Frank Howard (32-30-47, PHoM 1987)
37. Orel Hershiser (NR-new)
(37a. Ken Boyer [34a-32b-30a])
38. Pie Traynor (35-33-47)
39. John McGraw (37-35-40)
(39a. Lou Whitaker [37a-36a-38a])
40. Chuck Klein (38-36-22)
(40a. Quincy Trouppe [38a-36b-42a-])

41. Wally Berger (39-37-50)
42. David Cone (NR-new)
43. Don Mattingly (40-29-6, PHoM 2001)
(43a. Dewey Evans [40a-40a-50a])
44. Dave Bancroft (41-41-NR)
45. Luis Tiant (49-49-48)
46. Bob Johnson (46-46-46)
(46a. Early Wynn [26a-NR-NR])
47. Jim Rice (42-38-25)
48. Vic Willis (22-24-31)
49. Orlando Cepeda (43-43-41, PHoM 1987)
50. Addie Joss (26-14-21, PHoM 1967)


Dropped Out of Top 50

(Billy Pierce [39a-NR-NR])
Fred Dunlap (44-42-45)
(Alejandro Oms [45-40-42])
Hilton Smith (47-47-43)
Luke Easter (48-HM-HM)
Bobby Avila (50-HM-NR)


Honorable Mention

Eddie Cicotte (HM-28-26)
Rabbit Maranville (HM-HM-NR)
Lefty Gomez (HM-HM-HM)
Bobby Estalella (HM-HM-HM)
(Graig Nettles [HM-HM-NR])
Tony Oliva (HM-HM-HM)
Lou Brock (HM-NR-NR)
(Biz Mackey [HM-NR-NR)]

2007 Ballot. The first three are easy. The rest are overdue for a shakeup.

1. Cal Ripken, Jr. (new) I have some reservations, and might be interested in arguing about him versus Yount, but he belongs here for this ballot.
2. Tony Gwynn (new) Young Tony was a wonderful all-around athlete and a two-sport star. Old Tony was fatter, slower, much less an athlete - and a better baseball player because he was a better hitter. Such is baseball.
3. Mark McGwire (new) My non-boycott stance and some placement information is in his thread.

[Gap]

4. George Van Haltren (5, 4, 3, 3, 2) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career. Has now been on my ballot for nearly 100 years. Sam Thompson has what could have been his spot in the HoM.
5. Larry Doyle (4, 3, 2, 2, 3) I swapped Larry and George this week. It's still a heck of a bat - he's not a "joke" candidate to me.
6. Tommy Bridges (6, 5, 4, 4, 4) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
7. Bucky Walters (7, 6, 5, 5, 5) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
8. Orlando Cepeda (8, 7, 6, 6, 6) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
9. Norm Cash (9, 8, 7, 7, 7) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
10. Sal Bando (10, 9, 8, 8, 8) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
11. Bob Elliott (11, 10, 9, 9, 9) Roughly the value of Al Oliver or Brian Downing as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
12. Lou Brock (12, 11, 10, 10, 10) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
13. Tony Perez (13, 12, 11, 11, 11) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
14. Rusty Staub (14, 13, 13, 12, 12) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time.
15. Luis Tiant (16, 15, 14, 13, 13) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value.
16. Reggie Smith</b> (16, 15, 14, 14, 14) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
17. Bret Saberhagen</b> (---, 17, 15) How to place an 80's-90's pitcher who excels in value per inning but in relatively few innings versus 60's-70's pitchers (Tiant and John) who have innings-eating bulk but less value per inning. It was easier to to rack up that value per inning (but in fewer innings) in the 90's, during the tail end of Saberhagen's career; it was easier to rack up bulk innings in the 70's, with Tiant and John.
18. Ken Singleton (17, 16, 16, 15, 16) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter.
19. David Cone (new) See Saberhagen.
20. Tommy John (18, 17, 17, 16, 17) RA+ Pythpat record of 281-244 with no big years. Compare to Tiant: the difference of 57-80 is pretty much a wash, and Tiant had some big years.
21. Darrell Porter (19, 18, 18, 18, 18) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
22. Jack Clark (20, 19, 19, 19, 19) A hitter to be afraid of.
23. Ron Cey (22, 21, 21, 21, 21) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
24. Frank Howard (23, 22, 22, 22, 22) A great hitter; a born DH.
25. Gene Tenace (24, 23, 23, 23, 23) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Schang)
26. Dick Redding (25, 24, 24, 24, 24) Career at the top seems short, although he hung around forever afterwards.
27. Bobby Bonds (27, 26, 26, 26, 26)
28. Hugh Duffy (28, 27, 27, 27, 27) OK, but I'd rather have Van Haltren. And Ryan is in the same neighborhood.
29. David Concepcion (-----)
30. Tony Fernandez (new)
31. Bert Campaneris (-----) Perhaps the beginnings of a ballot shakeup before I vote in 2008 - nothing I do is going to affect the 2007 results. I've got teddy bears that need to be reexamined, and my list has too many bats and not enough gloves. But shortstops, in particular, are not underrepresented in the HoM. Would digging into the SS list be the right thing to do? I'm not sure of that - and where does that put the still-active Omar Vizquel?
32. Luis Aparicio (26, 25, 25, 25, 25) More games at SS than anyone else [Not any more! - O.V.], 500 SB with a good percentage.

Jose Canseco: The first hurdle in considering a modern bat-first corner outfielder - was he better than Rocky Colavito? I have Canseco's offense about level with Colavito's, and Rocky played better defense.

Paul O'Neill: Didn't do enough as a Red.

Harold Baines: I've got him in a cluster with Chili Davis, Al Oliver, and Brian Downing. See also Harry Hooper and Sam Rice.

2007 Ballot

The biggest area where my ballot will not match consensus is that my PHoM is about 30% pitching and the HoM is only about 25% pitching. This explains why I have so many pitchers on-ballot.

1) Cal Ripken Jr - 48th on my all-time list and 18th among post-integration players.
2) Tony Gwynn - around the HoM median, better career than Clemente but not as good as Raines. I expect my Gwynn rookie cards to soar in value after his inevitable HoM election. Gwynn and Puckett were my favorite players when I was 12.
3) Luis Tiant - A couple of reasons for this: I vote career, not seasonal, value and I use WARP numbers. His value is fractured over non-consecutive and partial seasons due mainly to injury but when he pitched he was damned hard to beat. Great post-season record.

4) Mark McGwire - He was slow and a below average first baseman but he could hit homeruns as well as anyone. I would have Eddie Murray ahead of McGwire.
5) Tommy Bridges - Very close to balloting ahead of McGwire but due to the war credit McGwire wins the tiebreaker. His 1934-36 peak has him as the best pitcher in the American League. Always above average rate stats when he was able to pitch. More career value than Dizzy Dean despite lower peak. Deserves war credit - he was really good in 1942-43 and was on the WS roster in 1945 when he returned. Went to the PCL in 1946 - and was the best pitcher in the league at age 40. Pitched in the PCL from 1946-1950.
6) Rick Reuschel - Strong career pitching value masked by pitching in high run-scoring ballparks. Underrated by ERA+, he had a decent bat and glove for a pitcher.
7) Bret Saberhagen - Dominant pitcher in his best seasons, above average in his other seasons.
8) Tommy Leach - Hybrid 3B/CF of the 1890s had an unusually long career at defensive positions and was a terrific fielder.
9) David Cone - High debut partly to other players moving downward.
10) Bus Clarkson - Slight move downward but I'm one of his supporters.
11) John McGraw - When he played he was awesome. Too bad he didn't play more often.
12) Virgil Trucks - Needs war credit to make the ballot. We've really underrepresented pitching during the WWII era.
13) Reggie Smith - Another player who does well for me - good rate production over many years despite not having big concentrated value in a few seasons.
14) Jim McCormick - I like him much better than Welch, Leever, Joss et al.
15) Dick Lundy - grabs the last ballot slot using discounts from the latest MLEs. I don't think they've sunk in just yet (they were adjusted once already) so I'm taking them with a grain of salt. Still, a 99 OPS+ and a great glove beats his contemporary white ballplayer Dave Bancroft. I've supported Bancroft in the past.

16-20) Bob Johnson, Lee Smith, Ben Taylor, Dick Redding, Vic Willis
21-25) Urban Shocker, Wally Schang, Norm Cash, Dutch Leonard, Gavy Cravath

44) Bucky Walters - I'd rather elect Dizzy Dean
102) Tony Perez - Better defender than Staub but otherwise they look very similar

We've really underrepresented pitching during the WWII era.

There are very few WWII pitchers who meet the "established standards" of the HoM, as measured by IP*ERA+, WS, WARP, etc. This COULD be because it was actually harder to dominate or last for a long time in that era--or it could simply be a star drought. I am currently studying that question to see if I can come to a convincing answer. In the absence of a conclusion backed by evidence, however, I don't see why we would assume that WWII pitchers are being "underrepresented" any more than 1920s 3B or 1950s 1B are being underrepresented--there may simply not have been many great ones due to random fluctuation.

1. Cal Ripken (SS, 112 OPS+, .285 EQA, 168.8 WARP3)
Even without the streak, he'd get into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot; when you realize how good a hitter he was period, much less as a shortstop, easily one of the best SS of the 20th century.

2. Tony Gwynn (RF, 132 OPS+, .307 EQA, 125.5 WARP3)
Never much of a power hitter, his value was in hitting the occasional homerun and triple, a few doubles, and lots and lots and lots and lots of singles. Good at walking too, as his only season with more K's than walks was his rookie season.

3. Mark McGwire (1B, 162 OPS+, .335 EQA, 110.1 WARP3)
The numbers above aren't that imposing in context, as he was often injured, and didn't have much of in the career-length category. That said, he arguably had one of the biggest peaks in major league history, era adjustments or not.

4. Bret Saberhagen (SP, 126 ERA+, 3.55 DERA, 93.5 WARP3)
I like him; I don't penalize him too harshly for the lack of career; he was used like a rented mule early on, average 221 IP through his age 25 season; shockingly, he was never really as effective after that.

5. George Van Haltren (OF, 121 OPS+ .287 EQA, 84.9 WARP3)
I hate you guys; he's been on the ballot forever, so I started researching a little in my free time, and found out that he was easily one of the most rounded players of the late 19th century.

6. Dick Redding (P, NeL)
Great pitcher, probably Top 5 in list of greatest Negro League Pitchers.


7. Albert Belle, (OF/DH, 143 OPS+, .317, 90.5)
Oh, if only he could've stayed healthy. (And not been such an #######, but that's for another topic).

8. Harold Baines (OF/DH, 120 OPS+, .293 EQA, 97.9 WARP3)
Pretty much all career value; he just kept chugging away, hitting 20 HRs a year forever.

9. David Cone (SP, 120 ERA+ 3.74, DERA 95.3 WARP3)
Quick, someone sign him for next year; he's 40-10 with a ~130 ERA+ in years ending in 8. :) Seriously, some peak, some career; if he'd had more of either, he'd be higher.

10. Rusty Staub (1B/OF, 124 OPS+, .295 EQA, 100.6 WARP3) Again, nice mix of peak filling out most of the value in career.

11. Tony Fernandez (SS, 101 OPS+ .273 EQA, 106.0 WARP3)

12. Paul O'Neill (RF, 120 OPS+ .295 EQA, 97.3 WARP3)

13. Reggie Smith (OF, 137 OPS+ .301 EQA, 91.2 WARP3

14. Kirby Puckett (OF, 124 OPS+, .296 EQA, 91.6 WARP3)

15. John McGraw (3B, 135 OPS+, .314, 71.9)

I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.

I am really lost after my top 13. I cannot make a distinction between the value of the players anymore at that level. If I had a choice, I’d only vote for 8 candidates, maybe only 6 if I had a little smaller Hall.

1. Ripken – a top 5 shortstop

2. Gwynn – a great, great hitter (and an all-round player until he got slower)

3. McGwire – I don’t dock for steroids. I think 568 HR and a 162 OPS+ are pretty impressive.

4. Lou Brock – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

5. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers. With Beckley elected, he is my last real Teddy Bear.

6. Tony Perez – 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

7. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

8. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

9. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat (at 17). No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.

10. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Martinez, Kaat, Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

11. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

12. Dave Parker – I think he is very similar to Rice, but I like Rice’s peak better. Their career counting stats impress me.

13. Albert Belle – I thought I would love him. From 1993 to 1998, he was one of the most dangerous hitters in the game, to use a cliché. What a peak! I hope the peaksters put him high, but as a career voter, this is as high as he can get for me.

14. Sam Rice -- 2987 hits speaks to me, but not even the best starch on the ballot.

15. Orlando Cepeda – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means 23, 24 and 25 spaces respectively on this ballot.

16. Luis Tiant – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

17. Pie Traynor -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.

18. Harold Baines – 32nd all time in total bases, the DHing keeps him well behind Perez. I see him as a better candidate than Staub. I might move him on to the ballot next year, as I think about it some more.

19. Jim Kaat

20. Lance Parrish

Craig K - Please complete ballot requirements - what is your opinion of the other top 10 vote getters: Bucky Walters, Bob Johnson and Tony Perez?

I’m a peak voter, though an amazing prime or really strong career will overwhelm my peak preferences in my (revamped) system. I lean on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

Not too many changes this time around: a few minor place swaps, and one big jump (Newcombe—see his ballot spot).

pHOM: Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire

2007 ballot:

1. Cal Ripken Jr. (pHOM 2007). I was all caught up in the consecutive-games streak when he played, and somehow underrated him otherwise. He’d get in purely on his offense even as an outfielder, so his having played some very good shortstop makes this very simple. I have him as the fourth or fifth best SS of all time, clearly behind only Wagner, Vaughan, and Lloyd.

2. Tony Gwynn (pHOM 2007). Another easy choice, though of course not quite as good as a lot of people think he was. He’s in the second tier of HOM right fielders, around guys like Flick and Heilmann.

3. Mark McGwire (pHOM 2007). A modern Dan Brouthers? Well, maybe not quite. He’s very, very close to Gwynn overall in my system (though he gets there very differently, relying far more on some extreme peak seasons), and I could probably justify putting either of them before the other. He winds up about thirteenth among first basemen all-time in my system. I don’t boycott, for any reason--so again, that's an easy choice.

4. Bret Saberhagen (pHOM 2005). A greater peak than I’d realized, and it shows up by multiple measures—not just PRAA. That, plus a better prime than Dean’s (in other words, he has one), puts him here.

5. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Been a long time since Dean was this low on my ballot! Sure, it’s a really short peak, but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough (and high enough for that brief period) for me.

6. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste. Great peak on both offense and defense.

7. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak. I still prefer him slightly to Bresnahan, though I admit there’s a certain amount of “what if?” going on there.

8. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but then again, he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. And his peak was very strong.

9. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Yes, I know he dominated partially because of his stadium, but I can’t see why I should penalize him for that. With minor-league credit—which I think he deserves—he’s a pretty easy choice.

10. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). He wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years.

11. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Very short peak, but five great years, especially at 3B, are enough for me.

12. Don Newcombe. When sunnyday and DanR agree on something, I’m forced to pay attention. ;) Seriously, the comparison with Cone and the surrounding arguments about opportunities and timing and credit have finally penetrated my thick skull, and I now agree with sunny that his case is comparable to Elston Howard’s. While he doesn’t seem at first to have the peak I usually look for—which has been what’s always held him back for me—the era and the various factors blocking his career are likely responsible for most of that lack.

13. Ken Singleton (pHOM 1997). Another of the “I had no idea he was this good at the time” gang—I think he was the player most felt Jim Rice was back then. In my system, judged only on offense, Singleton matches up well with Clemente and is better than Stargell.

14. John McGraw (pHOM 1996). Another tiny peak, but it seems good enough to outstrip the recent 3B glut to me (and at this position, it’s not like the years outside the peak are useless).

15. Johnny Pesky (pHOM 1997). With war credit for both, I prefer his peak/prime to Rizzuto’s, and I prefer them both by a great margin over the other backlog SS candidates.

16-20: Cone, Belle (2006), Rizzuto (2004), Leach (2006), Doyle (1995)
21-25: Redding (1975), Duffy (1930), Cicotte (1972), [Whitaker], Trout (1997), [Nettles], F. Howard
26-30: [Ashburn], Walters (1968), G. Burns, Clarkson, [Dw. Evans], McCormick, Bando
31-35: D. Murphy, Hahn, Parker, [Boyer], H. Smith, Gomez (1987)
36-40: [Dawson], Hiller, Dunlap, Viola, Puckett, Cepeda
41-45: Berger, Avila, L. Smith, [Doerr], Elliott, Mattingly
46-50: Shocker, Rucker, Sutter, P. Guerrero, Munson

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Smith. I just don’t see enough peak there. He’s a lot better than guys like Bob Johnson, IMO, but he’s not quite in my top 50, either.

•Walters. He’s in my pHOM, but got demoted some years back for not being demonstrably better than other not-yet-pHOMed guys like Stieb. He’s not far back, though, at #26.

•Redding. I like him, and he’s in my pHOM, but there are still a bunch of other lost-cause pitchers I like better. Can’t quite seem to get back on my ballot; he’s at #21.

•Johnson. Right in the heart of the Hall of Very Good, and certainly underrated historically, but not close to my ballot, or even to my top 50—nowhere near enough peak or prime.

•Perez. Not a fan--the 3B years help a bit, but I just don’t see nearly enough peak offense for a guy who mostly played first.

•Puckett. Not enough peak/prime to get in as an outfielder—even a CF—unless you play the what-if-no-injury game, and if I’m not doing that for Joss or Mattingly, I’m not doing it for Puckett. He’s at #39.

•Cone. For once, a positive surprise with one of my favorite players! Doesn’t have Saberhagen’s peak, but he’s not far behind. With strike credit and postseason credit, he’s very close to the ballot, at #16.

•Baines. I guess I can sorta see how a career voter would go for him, but I definitely want more peak out of a DH candidate. Not terribly close to my top 50.

•Fernandez, O’Neill, Canseco, Davis, and Bonilla all are in my consideration set but not close to my top 50. (Bonilla did best of the bunch, to my shock.)

Sorry; my bad.

Bucky Walters- DERA of 4.09, WARP3 of 88.0, 115 ERA+: Even with credit for hitting, the DERA is too high and the WARP3 and ERA+ are a bit too low for my tastes.

Bob Johnson- .304 EQA, 93.4 WARP3, 138 OPS+: Good numbers on the surface, but both played in seasons when everyone was hitting and in seasons where most of the league left for WWII.

Tony Perez: .288, 109.0, 122: Good, but only a 122 OPS from a first baseman and the fact that he basically got so many WARP by hanging on turned me off of him.

Mark Donelson--yeah, standard deviations were quite low for pitchers in Newcombe's day. Just check his ink--those 130ish ERA+ in '55 and '56 were good for second in the league, matched up with with top 10 innings totals and (in 55) the best pitcher hitting evar. Plus he was playing in the stronger league at a time when the gap in league strength was probably the biggest in modern history. Glad to see Newk on your ballot.

You're okay now, Craig. Welcome again!

200 Ballot

Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time with a strong preference for players who had good in-season durability. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. I think it also may be time to go a little more into my baseball philosophy, which may help in clarifying my rankings. I don't believe in the single stat theory of baseball, meaning I don't use WS or WARP in my rankings. Essentially, I follow this as I think a large percentage of what contributes to baseball is not counted. Well, no one has ever counted them as statistics as far as I've ever heard. This includes things like manager's prerogative, and actions that would require a historical pbp analysis currently unavailable. I search for what I consider "total ballplayers", guys who can do it all. I believe in positional representation and abhor the thought process that says that relievers were all failed starters and 2B are all failed SS, etc... A team cannot win without a 2B, nor without someone in LF. When I look at a player's career, I try to ask myself how I would feel about him as his manager - would his presence require special tactics to protect him, or is he completely reliable. I hope it can be seen by my rankings that the "reliable" players generally rise above the ones with clear holes in their games. There are always exceptions, but this is what I have. The stats I look at to get here tend to be traditional and rate, both offensive and defensive. Contemporary opinion also helps.

This year's notes. The big three top the charts. Ripken, Gwynn, and McGwire, in that order. Lundy pops into play at 12 and David Cone makes the ballot's tail end at 15. Those two are next in line for PHOM status. Possibly also last in line. Tony Fernandez is 39th. I think he just beats out Phil Rizzuto. Lots of other quality entrees, but none of the others make the top 90.

1)Cal Ripken (PHOM)
2)Tony Gwynn - Up to here goes without saying. Any comment would be superfluous. (PHOM)
3)Mark McGwire - Fun stat from the NBJHBA - He is/was the all time leader in bases per base hit. (PHOM)
4)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. The epitomy of reliability. (PHOM)
5)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
6)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. A summary of a reevaluation of some of our backlog pitchers in my high backlog (Bridges, Gomez, Redding, Walters) Of those four, the white guys were all regulars for 10-11 seasons. Bucky and Lefty both had immense peaks, but I think that Lefty's non-peak years hold up better than Bucky's. Also, Lefty does not need any war discount. Dick Redding seems more similar to Walters in that his non-peak was not so impressive. His peak was still enough to leave in him solid backlog country. (I even put him in my PHOM back when I joined the project.) Tommy Bridges wins out. He had much greater consistency. He is to pitchers what Bob Johnson was to hitters, but more of a winner. We have been especially splintered as to the backlog pitchers, and I urge everyone to give Tommy Bridges a closer look. (PHOM)
7)Kirby Puckett - I have it mentioned that some HOM voters consider Puckett to be a mistake of the BBWAA. I see where that sentiment may be emanating from, but I do beleive that his election was earned. A wonderful ballplayer. (PHOM)
8)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
9)Bus Clarkson - A new defensive readjustment moves to the cusp. (PHOM)
10)Dale Murphy - A player that my system loves. At his best he dominated. That refers to the years between 1979-1988. That's a 10 year prime with a very high peak. Also demonstrated very good fielding ability. Could easily move up my ballot. (PHOM)
11)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
12)Dick Lundy - I still prefer the solid fielder who can hit very well to the great fielder with the average bat. Even this late in the game, there's room for a surprise.
13)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
14)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable. (PHOM)
15)David Cone - I prefer his longer prime to Redding and Saberhagen, and he beats at least Sabes by durability as well.

16)Tony Oliva - Career not as short as I thought. Had solid durability for the seasons he was around for. A world class hitter. (PHOM)
17)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place. I now think his teens peak was all he needed. (PHOM)
18)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today. (PHOM)
19)Bret Saberhagen - Just a little bit more valuable, on the whole, than Dizzy Dean - slightly lower peak, but a longer prime.
20)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
21)Orlando Cepeda - Going with my numbers. I support him, but the strength of many of the new guys as well as the recently dregded up arguments for others drops him off ballot.(PHOM)
22)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves back up a bit as the clouds pass and I see much to compare between R. Smith and J. Wynn. Rechecked the head to heaad between Smith and Jack Clark and I must admit that Smith is just a smidge better. Feasibly better than Al Oliver as well. One reader pointed out how his games per season compared with Tony Oliva's. I prefer looking at PA's. Oliva's prime consisted of 11 seasons. (64-71 +73-75). In that time, he averaged 609 PA/season. Reggie Smith's prime was 67-78. In that time he averaged 579 PA/season. His career OPS+ may have been brought up by part time play. Valuable, but I am not concerned with it. All that said and done, he will may claim one of the final spots of my PHOM in these last few elections.
23)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarities between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Very convincing peak and a glove that scores quite well. Career length is nice as well.
((23a)Andre Dawson))
24)Albert Belle - Fits in rather nicely with the next two on this list.
25)Jack Clark - Marvelous hitter who had his uses in the field as well.
26)Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found.
27)Wally Berger - super-underrated
28)Don Mattingly - In the interest of my belief in a big hall for Cooperstown, I suppport Mattingly's induction. That said, for this project, he looks to be just the wrong side of the door.
29)Dan Quisenberry - I suppose I've decided that I value peak in a reliever over career totals. Mind you, if the guy has both...well, we'll see what happens with Goose in a few years.
30)Lee Smith - He didn't have the stellar peak of the two closers around him, but his prime outlasted them both. And his peak is really not that far below Sutter's, at least.
31)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.
32)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
((32a)Jimmy Wynn))
33)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily correct to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
34)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
35)Mickey Welch
((35a)Jim Bunning))
((35b)Billy Pierce))
((35c)Graig Nettles))
36)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled reliever system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
37)Lance Parrish - SOlid all round catcher. Proud member of the HoVG. Not quite the HOM though.
38)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
39)Tony Fernandez - Mr. Blue Jay
40)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((40a)Joe Gordon))
((40b)Dobie Moore))
41)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((41a)Cupid Childs))
42)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
((42a)Rollie Fingers))
43)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
44)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
45)Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((45a)Don Sutton))
46)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
47)Tony Perez - I wasn't giving him the extra glove credit he earned through 5 seasons as the Reds' 3B. Still, no peak. As far as 1B go, I have Cepeda up higher because of his very nice peak and his not too short career as a regular. Ben Taylor suffers from a lack of documented stats. The stats there show that he could flat out mash the ball by dead-ball standards. Contemporaries say his glove was the best they had ever seen at 1B. Very apt, in this year of the Hernandez discussion. How much as a scoop worth? I think it's worth alot. I maintain that while a below average defensive 1B can cause little harm, an above average glove at 1B will provide a hefty bonus to the team lucky enough to employ one.
48)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace. And better than Bresnahan given credit.
49)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
50)Phil Rizzuto
51)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
((51a)Jake Beckley))
52)Jimmy Ryan
53)Fred Lynn - Very similar to Duffy and Roush. Loses a lot of ground due to in-season durability concerns for an otherwise very strong candidate. Should be appealing to Browning/Chance/McGraw supporters who overlook that sort of thing.
((53a)Charlie Keller))
54)Cy Williams
55)Brett Butler - Some are calling him an equivalent to Kirby. I'm not seeing it. At Kirby's best, he was the best. At Butler's best, he was very good. My system will always take the guy who was the best for a stretch.
56)Amos Otis - The end of the centrefield run.
57)Dolf Camilli
58)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
((58a)Roger Bresnahan))
((58b)Pete Browning))
59)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
60)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
61)George Kell
62)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
63)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
64)Sal Bando
65)Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B.
66)Pie Traynor
67)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
68)Johnny Evers
69)Elston Howard
70)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
71)Bill Mazeroski
72)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
73)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
74)Vic Willis - A reexamination of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
75)Thurmon Munson - see below.
76)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
77)Johnny Pesky
78)Hippo Vaughn
79)Tom Henke - Not a long career, but the Terminator was one of the best closers in the game at his peak.
80)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
81)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
82)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
83)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
84)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
85)Rocky Colavito
87)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
88)Denny Lyons
89)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
90)George Van Haltren - Van Haltren is the big loser on the CF sweepstakes due to his poor fielding by my own accounts.
91)Rabbit Maranville

I also forgot my disclosures.

Three HOVG members

1. Bucky Walters is in my top 70. He was a very good pitcher, like many others I list in my Addie Joss comment.

2. Reggie Smith is in my top 40 -- with a bunch of other similar outfielders.
3. Bob Johnson is just behind him.

Two Too Short (and not quite spectacular enough) a Career Candidates

1. John McGraw's career was short even within seasons. He is not in my top 70.

2. Saberhagen is well below my pitching glut. He had very few great seasons and too short a career. You need one or the other with me, usually the other (a long career). Not in my top-70.

Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes

Then why isn't he the top pitcher on your ballot?

Thanks. I should update that comment. Should now read "One of the best available pitchers..." I wrote that before realizing I had forgotten to include war credit in Bridges case.

2007 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. Small credit for pitcher “peak”, none for hitters. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Cal Ripken {new}
39th on my all-time list. 29th among non-pitchers. 3rd best SS behind Honus and Lloyd.
2- Tony Gwynn {new}
Who woulda guessed in 1992 that Wade Boggs, who owned a lifetime batting avg of over .350, would be overtaken later (and not even close!) in his career by Gwynn, who was hitting a mere .330 or so at the time? Not me fer sher.
3- Mark McGwire {new}
No batting avg, no speed, little defensive value, and got hurt. And still a clear HoMer. Whadda masher.
4- John McGraw (2) [9]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base. Add in our shortage of 1890s infielders & shortage of pre-WWII 3Bmen, and he’s clearly “in” for me.
5- Reggie Smith (3) [4]
Not quite the peak rate and durability for big-season voters, not long enough career for career voters. But overall a GREAT player. Helped every team he joined, and they hurt when he left.
6- Bill Monroe (4) [46]
Dominant in his day. Moreso than Oms or Redding or Clarkson or whoever your favorite NgLg candidate is.
7- Bucky Walters (5) [5]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit real well too.
8- George Van Haltren (6) [17]
Spent three years primarily as a pitcher. And is still 33rd all-time in runs scored.
9- Frank Chance (7) [72]
A great player on great teams. <u>As good a hitter as Gavy Cravath.</u>.
10- Bob Johnson (8) [7]
Very solid dozen year stretch. One very good MinorLg year of credit also.
11- Bob Elliot (9) [32]
The 1947 MVP. Like I knew that already.
12- Luis Tiant (10) [16]
Few unearned runs allowed. Small bonuses for post-season wins. Small discount for arriving in those luvly-to-pitch 60s.
13- Dick Redding (11) [6]
Great pitcher according to the anecdotes. Less great by MLEs. I split the difference.
14- Burleigh Grimes (12) [24]
I’m (finally) Bully for Burleigh!

------ fuzzy PHoM line ----

15- Ed Williamson (14) [47]
After a long hiatus, Ed resurfaces.


Reuschel, Rizzuto, Brock, Saberhagen are 16-19.

Tony Perez – weak prime; compared to Reggie Smith or Bob Johnson, who were much better over a dozen seasons, he’s got nuthin.

Newbies:

Harold Baines – HOVG.

Tony Fernandez – Concepcion clone. Joins the10 shortstops in my top 60 jammed backlog.

Dick Lundy – wish I knew more. Was he a 104 OPS+ guy or a 95 OPS+ guy? Mighta been better than Tony F, but maybe not. Sorry, but not gonna ballot him.

1. Cal Ripken, Jr., SS (n/e). My all-time favorite player. He'd be an easy number one even if he wasn't.

2. Tony Gwynn, RF (n/e). I'm a prime/career voter and with 8 batting titles and 3000 career hits, Gwynn's an easy choice for number two.

3. Mark McGwire, 1B (n/e). The injuries keep him behind Gwynn- not enough years and too many of them shortened. But even in limited duty, he put up peak and career numbers that stand out.

4. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (1). PHoM- 1975. Great peak years between 1914 and 1919 including an estimated 2.14 ERA in 321 innings for Chicago in 1917 (according to i9). Lost a half a year in each of ’18 and ’19 due to military service. Even so, his career MLEs of 234-174 put him in the neighborhood if not ahead of inducted contemporaries like Coveleski, Faber and Rixey.

5. Dave Concepcion, SS (3). PHoM- 2005. No longer surprised that I've got Concepcion this high. No other eligible shortstop can match Concepcion for length and quality of prime. Excellent all-around shortstop for 8 out of 9 years from 1974 to 1982 (1980 was a down-year exception), 8 ½ if counting his 89 game season in 1973.

6. Don Newcombe, P (6). PHoM- 1987. Great years in ’50-’51 and ’55-’56 interrupted by military service in the Korean War. Missing a rise to his career due to integration and a tail due to his own personal issues (and no, he doesn’t get credit for the latter). With proper credit, he’s well over 200 wins for his career and though he isn’t in the same class as contemporaries like Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce, he’s close enough to be worthy of induction.

7. Hugh Duffy, CF (7). PHoM- 1995. An excellent center-fielder who could have won Gold Gloves in ’93 and ’95, he was moved to left not because of poor play but because his team acquired Billy Hamilton. Also, an excellent offensive player for 8 seasons from 1890 to 1897. That’s not quite as valuable as Concepcion at SS or Newcombe at P, but its close.

8. Tommy Bridges, P (4). PHoM- 2002. I love that long prime. Top ten in ERA+ 10 times in 12 seasons (Addie Joss is only other eligible 20th century with more than 7 and he has 8). Top ten in IP 5 straight seasons from 1933 to 1937 for a suitable peak. Would be higher with a bit more career value.

9. Bob Johnson, LF (5). PHoM- 2003. We’ve already got plenty of players from his era, but Bob Johnson’s prime is almost as good as Bridges’. Top ten in OPS+ 10 times in 12 seasons. Top ten in RC 9 times. 13 seasons with OPS+ over 125 (Jack Clark is only other eligible outfielder with more than 10 and he has 11). Similar to Bridges, would be even higher with a bit more career value.

10. Dick Lundy, SS (9). From going out on a limb to leading the bandwagon: I like the long prime and the combination of bat and glove. Now we know why the Hall of Fame research showed that he walked more than initially credited- Philadelphia and Atlantic City box scores didn't include walks. Similar defense to Bancroft. Similar length of prime to Concepcion from 1919-24 and ’26-28. Best player on pennant winning teams for two different franchises. Missing that one big year like Rizzuto's 1950.

11. Bret Saberhagen, P (8). PHoM- 2006. More of a peak/prime candidate than I would usually vote for but second only to Stieb for starting pitchers for his era (Eckersley beats them both as a starter/closer hybrid).

12. Lou Brock, LF (10). PHoM- 1985. I'm still a prime/career voter and Brock is one of the best career candidates on the ballot. 1622 career RC are best of any eligible player. Very consistent for 13 years from 1964 to 1976 with OPS+ always between 106 and 128 and RC/27 over 5.00 for all 13 seasons. Among the worst defensive outfielders but that doesn’t hurt him as much as it might as there are few eligible corner outfielder candidates with outstanding gloves.

13. Burleigh Grimes, P (11). PHoM- 1984. My ballot is starting to fill up with this kind of player- missing the huge peak but a long excellent prime for a decade or more which results in great career numbers. Still, Grimes did have two separate peaks: first in 1920-’21 when he was the best NL’s pitcher in 1921 (138 ERA+ in 302 IP, compared to Adams 144 in 160 and Doak 142 in 208), and a second in 1928-29 (1st in Wins, 2nd in WHIP in ’28; 1st in ERA+, 2nd in ERA in ’29).

14. Pie Traynor, 3B (12). The best third baseman available. Good career rate (.320/.362/.435 in 1941 games) and cumulative stats (2416 hits, 321 doubles, 1183 runs, 1273 RBI). Not much of a peak but a solid 11-year prime from 1923 to 1933.

15. Bill Monroe, 2B (15). Best available second baseman. Has both the offense (sorry, Red and Maz) and the defense (sorry, Doyle and Lazzeri), plus he was considered to be among the best at any position during his peak.

The Next Ten:
16. Vic Willis, P
17. Phil Rizzuto, SS
18. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (PHoM)
19. Elston Howard, C
20. Jack Morris, P
21. Kirby Puckett, CF
22. Ben Taylor, 1B
23. Mickey Welch, P
24. Dave Bancroft, SS
25. George Van Haltren, CF

New Eligibles:
Harold Baines is Jake Beckley without the defense, and although I supported Beckley, he was a bottom of the ballot candidate for me.
David Cone is pretty good, but not as good as Saberhagen; head-to-head with Tiant would be interesting
Tony Fernandez is another good candidate, but not quite in the company of the big four of Bancroft, Concepcion, Lundy and Rizzuto

Necessary Disclosures:
Reggie Smith: too much missing time and corner time for him to displace other players at his position such as the '90s duo of Duffy and Van Haltren and the '80s duo of Puckett and Murphy
Bucky Walters: not enough outside of his peak for me to vote for him, but wouldn't be overly upset if he was inducted
John McGraw: see what I said about Smith and Walters; there were some years in which half of McGraw was better than all of somebody else but I need more career and more in-season durability
Tony Perez: only the fourth-best first-baseman available behind Cepeda, Cash and Taylor

PHOM
Cal Ripken Jr.
Mark McGwire
Tony Gwynn

2007 Ballot
1. Cal Ripken Jr. – Elected PHOM in 2007.
2. Mark McGwire – Elected PHOM in 2007.
3. Tony Gwynn – Elected PHOM in 2007.
4. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
5. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
6. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
7. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
8. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
9. Ed Williamson – I’ll take him over Boyer. Elected PHOM in 1958
10. Ken Singleton – Jumps onto ballot after I adjust for the DH. Elected PHOM in 1997.
11. Dizzy Dean – Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
12. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985
13. Bruce Sutter – Very close to Fingers. I like his peak. Elected PHOM in 1994
14. Thurman Munson – Elected PHOM in 1997.
15. Don Newcombe – First time on ballot. Gets credit for Korea. Elected PHOM in 1997

Required Disclosures
R. Smith and McGraw Not enough in-season durability.
Perez and Johnson Not enough peak value.
Saberhagen Fine pitcher, a couple more peak years or about 3 more prime years would make a big difference.

New Candidates
David Cone About even with Saberhagen.
Harold Baines No peak
Tony Fernandez HOVG. A little more career(or peak) would have helped.

Off the ballot
16-20 Cravath,Leach,Easter,Bond,Rosen
21-25 Cooper,Mays,(BRobinson),(Faber),Lundy
26-30 Rizzuto,(Ashburn),Monroe,(Medwick),Murphy
31-35 Belle,(DSutton),FJones,(Nettles),Parrish
36-40 Scales,(Gordon),Puckett,Mattingly,Elliott
41-45 Johnson,Perez,(Terry),Traynor,LSmith
46-50 Matlock,(Randolph),Pesky,(Fox),(Boyer)
51-55 (Pierce),John,Shocker,Clarkson,Fernandez
56-60 (Doerr),HSmith,Cone,Saberhagen,FHoward
61-65 Bando,Bell,Quisenberry,MWilliams,RSmith
66-70 Doyle,Cey,HWilson,Van Haltren,Ryan
71-75 Schang,McGraw,Bancroft,(Sewell),AWilson
76-80 Cepeda,Stephens,DiMaggio,Poles,Winters
81-85 Kaat,Mullane,ACooper,Berger,Burns
86-90 Lynn,Taylor,Parker,Tiernan,JClark
91-95 (Thompson),JRice,(Dawson),Pinson,Cedeno
96-100 Chance,Brock,Staub,Cash,Fournier

Ripken clearly #1 and Gwynn #2. McGwire less special than Joss, who died instead of taking steroids, so slips to #4. Baines is well below Staub and Perez. Fernandez MUCH better than Ozzie Smith, but close to bottom of consideration set. O’Neill too short/not good enough. Canseco almost good enough but not quite. Bonilla just off bottom of consideration set, Joyner, Davis further off, Caminiti further still -- WS wildly overstating hitters in the modern era. Cone not that far off ballot, less than Sabes but better than Walters etc – underrated by WS.

1. (N/A) Cal Ripken Slightly less special than I had expected, but a clear #1. TB+BB/PA .489 TB+BB/Outs .708 3184 hits @112.

2. (N/A) Tony Gwynn TB+BB/PA .493 TB+BB/Outs .758 3141 hits @132. A slightly better Beckley.

3. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3-2-2-3-5-2-2-1-2-1-2-1) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20. Electorate needs to take him more seriously.

4. (N/A) Mark McGwire TB+BB/PA .646, TB+BB/Outs 1.033, spectacular. 1626 hits @162. In terms of hits, will be one of the shortest careers we’ve enshrined. In terms of BIP, probably the fewest – everything’s a walk or a HR. No other candidate has this pattern; presumably we’ll see it more in the future. Yes, in, but only just.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4-3-3-4-6-3-3-2-3-3-4-2) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5-4-4-5-7-4-4-3-4-4
-5-3) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

7. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6-5-5-6-8-5-5-4-5-5-6-4) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

8. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8-7-7-9-10-6-7-5-8-7-7-5) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.

Ripken clearly #1 and Gwynn #2. McGwire less special than Joss, who died instead of taking steroids, so slips to #4. Baines is well below Staub and Perez. Fernandez MUCH better than Ozzie Smith, but close to bottom of consideration set. O’Neill too short/not good enough. Canseco almost good enough but not quite. Bonilla just off bottom of consideration set, Joyner, Davis further off, Caminiti further still -- WS wildly overstating hitters in the modern era. Cone not that far off ballot, less than Sabes but better than Walters etc – underrated by WS.

1. (N/A) Cal Ripken Slightly less special than I had expected, but a clear #1. TB+BB/PA .489 TB+BB/Outs .708 3184 hits @112.

2. (N/A) Tony Gwynn TB+BB/PA .493 TB+BB/Outs .758 3141 hits @132. A slightly better Beckley.

3. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3-2-2-3-5-2-2-1-2-1-2-1) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20. Electorate needs to take him more seriously.

4. (N/A) Mark McGwire TB+BB/PA .646, TB+BB/Outs 1.033, spectacular. 1626 hits @162. In terms of hits, will be one of the shortest careers we’ve enshrined. In terms of BIP, probably the fewest – everything’s a walk or a HR. No other candidate has this pattern; presumably we’ll see it more in the future. Yes, in, but only just.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4-3-3-4-6-3-3-2-3-3-4-2) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5-4-4-5-7-4-4-3-4-4
-5-3) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

7. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6-5-5-6-8-5-5-4-5-5-6-4) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

8. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8-7-7-9-10-6-7-5-8-7-7-5) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

9. (N/A-6) John McGraw. 1309 hits is lousy, but he was a 3B which is equivalent to 2B today, so OPS+ of 135 is about 150, which puts him significantly above Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA .496, TB+BB/Outs.924

10. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-8) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

11. (N/A-12-11-11-13-14-11-12-11-12-10-10-8) Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat.

12. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-13-14-13-14-11-11-9) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far. 3021 innings at 119, 207-126 and 83 OPS+ Others should look at him more closely.

13. (N/A-12-10)Bret Saberhagen. Short career, not enough wins, but what a quality! 167-117, 2563IP@126ERA+ 126 ERA+ is equal 52nd all-time; Bret’s up there.

14. (N/A-13-13-11) Elmer Smith Deduct 10% from Elmer's Western League 1890 and 1891 batting and slugging percentages we get 301/461 and 284/431 respectively. Comparing against the PL of 1890 gives an OPS+ of about 130, against the NL of 1891 gives an OPS+ of about 139. That gives him 14 years of full-time play; adjust those to 130 game seasons (which I did for 19th century players gives him about 2140 hits at an OPS+ of 128-129 plus a pitching record of about 1400IP at an ERA+ of 113 and a W/L of about 96-72. Elmer baby, you're on my ballot, albeit at the bottom of it. Only 97 years late.

15. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13-11-10-10-12-13-10-11-10-11-9-9-12) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history, but down a little when I look at Belle. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

OFF BALLOT

16. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14
-14-13) Mickey Welch. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP. Will now be on and off ballot.

17. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A-14-15-14-15-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. We don’t have enough Beaneaters! However he’s not quite as good as Elmer Smith. Will be back soon.

18. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-13-12-14-15-12-13-12-13-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars, but he was significantly below Elmer Smith, either as hitter or pitcher.

19. (N/A-15-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long.

20. (N/A-12-N/A) Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best.

21. David Cone 2898IP@120 194-126. WS seems to be underrating modern pitchers just as it overrates modern hitters. Not quite Sabes, but better than Tiant and Reuschel.

22. Albert Belle 1726 hits @143. Short career, not quite Frank Howard but Frank was a little high. TB+BB/PA .597 TB+BB/Outs .896

23. Reggie Smith Could be another Red Sox cap, but not quite. 2020 hits@137 but quite close to W. Clark as was a CF. TB+BB/PA .537 TB+BB/Outs .810

24. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15-N/A) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down.

25. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis Had slipped too far.

26. (N/A) Lee Smith 71-92 +478 saves. 1289IP @132. I find these relievers difficult to rank because their usage changes; with the exception of Wilhelm I don’t see any of them as clearly IN. (Rivera very short career in IP terms so far, and ERA+ declining as we speak.) Still, Lee Smith was better than Fingers and I think Gossage, though that one’s close.

27. Gavvy Cravath 1134 hits@150. Add 50% to career and deduct 5 points for more years in early career makes him 1699 hits @145, still a very short career, but comparable to Hack. TB+BB/PA .527, TB+BB/Outs .835.

28. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-14-N/A) Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore.

29. Rick Reuschel. 214-191, 3548IP@114. Tough to put him far from Tiant, who had a better W/L, but I now realized I was overvaluing Tiant a bit because of Red Sox affiliation.

30. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

31. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

32. Brian Downing. 2099 hits at 122 plus he caught about 1/3 of his games. TB+BB/PA.487 TB+BB/Outs.741

33. Tony Perez. Close to Staub but below him. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
34. Bill Madlock.
35. Toby Harrah
36. Ben Taylor.
37. Jim Kaat
38. Orlando Cepeda
39. Norm Cash
40. Jim Rice
41. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
42. Cesar Cedeno
43. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
44. Lou Brock
45. Mickey Vernon
46. Thurmon Munson
47. Sal Maglie.
48. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
49. (N/A) Heinie Manush
50. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
51. Bob Elliott
52. (N/A) Dick Lundy
53. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
54. Jack Clark. As good as Reggie Smith but not for as long. 1826 hits@137OPS+, TB+BB .529, TB+BB/Outs .845
55. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
56. Harold Baines 2866 hits @120. TB+BB/PA .511 TB+BB/Outs .757. Lower than Staub and Perez.
57. Dennis Martinez 3999IP@106, 245-193. A lesser Kaat.
58. Jimmy Key
59. Dave Parker.
60. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
61. Gene Tenace
62. Kiki Cuyler
63. Deacon McGuire
64. Jerry Koosman.
65. Boog Powell
66. Ken Singleton.
67. Bucky Walters 198-160, 3104IP at 115 certainly doesn’t make the ballot, but should be on the consideration set, so here he is. Less than Tiant or Reuschel..
68. Sal Bando.
69. Jim Fregosi.
70. Jack Quinn
71. Tony Mullane
72. Ron Cey
73. Jose Canseco. Wish I could put him higher; enjoyable personality, but career too short. 1877 hits@132. TB+BB/PA .559 TB+BB/Outs .821.
74. Pie Traynor
75. Jim McCormick
76. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
77. Joe Judge
78. Spotswood Poles.
79. Buddy Bell.
80. Larry Doyle
81. Kirby Puckett 2304 hits @124. TB+BB/PA .498 TB+BB/Outs .738 Overrated badly by the HOF; 5 adjusted OPS+ points short of Cepeda, who’s below the ballot.
82. (N/A)Tony Fernandez. Turn him into an outfielder and he’s Kirby, so here he is. 2276 hits @101, TB+BB/PA .438 TB+BB/Outs .634
83. Curt Simmons
84. Waite Hoyt.
85. Harry Hooper.
86. Vada Pinson
87. Gil Hodges
88. Jules Thomas.
89. Rico Carty.
90. Wilbur Cooper
91. Bruce Petway.
92. Jack Clements
93. Frank Tanana
94. Don Mattingley.
95. Orel Hershiser 204-150, 3130 IP@112. Not quite enough
96. Bill Monroe
97. Herb Pennock
98. Chief Bender
99. Ed Konetchy
100. Al Oliver
101. Darryl Strawberry.
102. Jesse Tannehill
103. Bobby Veach
104. Chet Lemon.
105. Lave Cross
106. Tommy Leach.
107. Tom York

God knows what happened in 26. I HATE technology!

McGwire less special than Joss, who died instead of taking steroids

How can we condemn steroid users when we now know that taking steroids can SAVE YOUR LIFE!!!

I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS (particularly for defense) on a season-to-season basis. I examine only those seasons in which the player performed at a reasonable star level, with playing time a significant consideration. Also, I do not use an arbitrary time frame in my analysis (I used to give emphasis to a player’s best seven years, but discarded that over thirty “years” ago). Therefore, long primes do very well in my system; I am really more of a “career-prime” voter than a “peak-prime” one. However, outstanding five-or six year peaks can also do well. In addition, I give some weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Cal Ripken
2. Mark McGwire
3. Tony Gwynn

McGwire is an easy #2. In fact—and I realize this is heresy—it was not immediately obvious to me that Ripken should be #1. McGwire has the 12th highest career OPS+ of all-time; not much of a decline phase, of course (not to mention the steroid accusations), but six seasons with an OPS+ 170 or above puts him in some pretty rarified air. And in my system, Ripken doesn’t get much credit for any season after ’91. But in his prime Cal was the best shortstop baseball produced between Arky and A-Rod, and that has to get him the top spot.

4. Vic Willis
5. Ken Singleton
6. Reggie Smith

With the election of Charley Jones, Vic Willis becomes my #1 backlogger. He was a workhorse--pitched 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118, was in the top ten IP leaders nine times. He also had decent peak years, with ERA+ seasons of 167, 155, and 154.

We haven’t elected many OFr’s from the ‘70s: Reggie, Pops, Yaz, Wynn, Winfield, and Dewey (and Dewey was much better in the 80s). With their decent peaks and long primes, I think Singleton and Reggie Smith should join them. Smith had more defensive value of course, but with playing time issues, I think Singleton comes out ahead on a season-to-season basis.

7. Bus Clarkson
8. Gavvy Cravath

I’m using Dr. C’s original MLE’s for Clarkson rather than the upgrades, but even those show that Clarkson was the best third basemen of the early 1940s, and arguably the best shortstop. They also show him to be a considerably better hitter than Lundy in his new MLE’s; given the somewhat speculative nature of NeL defense, I can’t put Lundy ahead (although he does make a serious move up my rankings).

Browning is in, but Cravath--another lumbering outfielder from a weaker league—hangs just outside the top ten. Using Brent/Dayrn’s MLE’s for Browning, Cravath was better season for season, if you give him credit for PCL play. He was an outstanding hitter in his age 32-36 seasons, even taking his park into account.

9. Kirby Puckett
10. Tommy Leach

Leach is a glove candidate who can hit, with seasons of 132, 125, and 125 OPS+ as a WS Gold Glove 3B; as well as 136 and 132 as a Gold Glove CF. And we’ve only elected seven third basemen who played before 1950. Puckett has dropped a little on my recent ballots, but his hitting keeps him above Tommy.

11. Bucky Walters
12. Wally Schang

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defences were either in the service or growing old. Schang put up very good years at catcher every season from 1914-22 (except 1918).

13. Atanasio Perez
14. Larry Doyle
15. Tommy Bridges

IMO, Perez in his prime (1967-73) looks similar to Elliott and Doyle in their primes; if I give Perez credit for his years at 1B 74-78, then he comes out ahead. Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+. Now that I’m being more realistic about the 1930s, Bridges’ ten top 10 ERA+ finishes stand out; if you remove his three #10 finishes, he still finishes seven times in the top six

16. Bob Elliott
17. Bob Johnson
18. Dale Murphy
19. Dick Lundy
20. Eddie Ciccotte


Not in my top fifteen:

Dick Redding. Has been compared to Orel Hershiser. Seems apt: had a couple of big years which gives him an argument, but not quite enough for induction.

Bob Johnson Currently #17. If we’re talking about long prime candidates, I can’t see putting him ahead of Singleton (who was better at getting on base, and compares more favourably to his OF contemporaries) or Perez (with his time at 3B). But Bob would not be bad selection to the HoM by any means.

Bret Saberhagen I can see why peak voters would like him, but he doesn’t do particularly well in my season-to-season system, which actually likes Cone better.

John McGraw Playing time is significant in my system, which hurts McGraw, although I wouldn’t be upset if we elected another pre-1950 third baseman.

2007

1. Cal Ripken (-)--He’s good.

2. Tony Gwynn (-)--Him too.

3. Mark McGwire (-)--He as well.

4. Tommy Leach (2)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

5. John McGraw (3)--He’s got the best peak of the backlog, but still a shortage of career value. (1997)

6. Dale Murphy (4)--A great prime with a decent career value despite the decline phase. Bumped up this year as he’s got the best peak of the outfield glut, and the career value difference is minimal. (2000)

7. Bret Saberhagen (9)--He and Cone may be artifacts of timing, but they're still the best pitchers out there. (2006)

8. Bobby Bonds (8)--Fine all-around outfielder, with a good mix of peak and career, like many other outfielders on the ballot. (1995)

9. Albert Belle (10)--Kiner makes sense, I still think Edgar Martinez was the MVP in ‘95, though.

10. David Cone (-)--Like Saberhagen, only a little less so.

11. Luis Tiant (12)--A fine all-around pitching candidate, good career value, solid peak, underrated.

(Graig Nettles)

12. Hugh Duffy (5)--High peak, medium length career, he's dropping but still a HOMer. (1964)

13. Don Newcombe (15)--Took another look at some pitchers a couple years ago, and Newcombe and Tanana were the biggest beneficiaries. War credit helps his case a lot.

14. Ken Singleton (11)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

15. Dave Concepcion (20)--This Kool-Aid tastes good.

16. Frank Tanana (19)
17. Tony Lazzeri (17)
18. Ron Cey (18)
19. Larry Doyle (13) (1945)
(Rollie Fingers)
20. Wally Berger (21)
21. Tony Perez (30)
22. Rick Reuschel (28)
23. George Van Haltren (6) (1966)
24. Carl Mays (22)
(Willie Randolph)
25. Mike Tiernan (23)
26. Cesar Cedeno (24)
27. George Foster (25)
28. Bobby Veach (26)
29. Dick Redding (27)
30. Ed Williamson (29)
(Dobie Moore)
31. Phil Rizzuto (31)
32. Norm Cash (41)
33. Reggie Smith (43)
34. Don Mattingly (44)
35. Frank Howard (45)
(Jake Beckley)
36. Bob Elliot (32)
37. Rusty Staub (33)
(Roger Bresnahan)
38. Lee Smith (34)
39. Buddy Bell (49)
40. Dave Parker (16)
41. Brett Butler (46)
42. Vada Pinson (35)
43. Dan Quisenberry (36)
44. Hack Wilson (37)
45. Gavy Cravath (38)
46. Sal Bando (39)
47. Kirby Puckett (40)
48. Bruce Sutter (42)
49. Bobby Murcer (47)
50. Orlando Cepeda (48)

I think Tim Salmon was the AL MVP in '95! Great defense and baserunning and stayed out of double plays. It adds up. Belle #2, Thomas #3, John Valentin #4, Edgar #5. Edgar was a DH, his baserunning was crappy, and the Kingdome was a hitters' park.

But the '95 Mariners are the awesomest team ever!

I liked Albert.

I like Ike.

2007 ballot from this career voter (low replacement level):

1. Cal Ripken - best of a very good class
2. Mark McGwire - great peak enough to exceed Gwynn
3. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
4. Tony Gwynn - throwback to an earlier era, overrated in the modern game
5. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/1 year minor lg credit)
6. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career
7. Tony Perez - good, long career
8. Bob Elliott - good 3B mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
9. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct, with minor league and wwii credit
10. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career (similar to Perez)
11. Reggie Smith - boost from center field play and japan
12. Bus Clarkson - everybody should give him another good look
13. Chuck Klein - very good peak and career (even after adjusting for park)
14. Rabbit Maranville - better career than most realize (with credit for 1918)
15. Pie Traynor - was so overrated he is now underrated
------
16-20 Hack Wilson, Tommy Leach, Jack Clark, Luis Aparicio, Dave Parker

Not voting for Dick Redding (around 50th), Kirby Puckett (around 100th),
Bucky Walters (around 75th), Gavvy Cravath (around 50th), Bret
Saberhagen (around 50th), and John McGraw (around 100th).

1. Cal Ripken, Jr.: He’s been passed by A-Rod in my SS rankings…but that’s only until A-Rod has enough 3B time to shift over to my hot-corner rankings. My system sees he and Yount as having nearly identical cases for induction, though I prefer Ripken for staying at SS longer and being a better defender.

2. Tony Gwynn: Damn near closest thing to a .400 hitter I’ve ever seen, and that’s counting Phil Clark.

3. Mark McGwire: Holding my nose? Sure. But I’ll probably have to do that for everyone from now on. So why worry about it. He was a total monster for several seasons, damn good for a few, pretty good a couple, and injured others. Otherwise, he might rank higher than at his own position than he does.

4. Wilbur Cooper: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

5. Ken Singleton: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons.

6. Tommy Leach: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

7. Lance Parrish: Let me take a minute here to explain, since I think everyone’s going to jump my ship for this. As explained in his thread, Parrish’s two big knocks are his lack of walks and his fielding. But neither ubersystem sees Parrish as having problematic fielding—to the contrary, they LIKE his glove. We have evidence of his defensive goodness which has been largely ignored in the discussions so far: Parrish hung on for a good while as a regular and semi-regular despite a decline in his hitting—he could not have done so had his defense been as weak as has been said. Which leaves the walks. Well, catchers who play D and hit 300+ homers are still pretty rare, even in today’s HR-happy times. I won’t tell you the lack of walks is illusory, but I will say that Parrish built a lot of value despite the lack of walks, and that value is what I’m looking at. Parrish’s case begins and ends with positional dominance and career length. He was the best catcher of the AL for several years. Even after, he remained a productive regular for several seasons and a good backup even after that. He’s almost as high in my rankings at catcher as Whitaker is in my rankings of 2Bs. Not quite but almost. He’s right below Freehand and Torre. However, he’s more impressive than the guys below him at catcher, where Whitaker’s got plenty of guys breathing down his neck. I think both are HOMers, but their relative rankings are not cast in stone, and I’ll continue to monitor how I feel about it.

8. Leroy Matlock: He’s back. Many years ago now I saw Matlock as the best available pitcher. My consensus scores plummeted…. But in reviewing NgL players, I looked back on his thread, and I don’t really understand why I lost my nerve on him. The MLEs look HOMable, even if you see that 1937 season as a little less than 43 WS. I think we’ve whiffed on him, and that someday when we’ve got more better information, he’ll be one of the “lost” guys that no one talked about who ends up as a HOMer.

9. Bucky Walters: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

10. Hugh Duffy: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a perfectly fine selection, but he’s certainly a borderliner.

11. Gavy Cravath: Nearly as good as Winfield, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into a high ballot placement when the backlog is so jammed.

12. Larry Doyle: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time. Few on this ballot can make such a claim to league-wide dominance. This week’s discussions of his candidacy have pushed him down the ballot.

13. Don Newcombe: The bottom of my ballot is becoming a catchall for guys I’m kind of thinking might be underrated by my system and who Sunny, Cobb, or DanR have made compelling arguments for. Newc is one. Now that we see that the STDEVs for his league and era were tighter than others, it makes me think a lot more highly of his string of similar, league-leading or nearly league-leading ERA+. And then the hitting, of course. I don’t give pitchers war credit or he might be higher.

14. Bus Clarkson: In revising my WS routine for MLEs, it improved his standing, and this placement reflects that. It’s not an exact placement, I’m still working through kinks in the system, but it’s enough to get him on the lower end of my ballot.

15. Elston Howard: I like him a wee bit better than Rajah.


NOTABLE NEWBIES
-David Cone: Saberhagen, Hershiser, Gooden, and others haven’t made my ballot. Neither does Cone. Kevin Brown will. He’s more dominant than they were.

-Paul O’Neill: Whiny crybaby, but when I was a Yankee fan I loved him. Good mix of hitting skills and got better as he went along. Good outfielder too with a great, accurate arm.

-Bobby Bonilla: In my old system, Bonilla was a contender. As it is, he still ranks highly, but not in my top 100 or anything. Good hitter, clumsy glove, shortish career that seemed like it should have lasted longer. Too bad about the ear plugs.

-Tony Fernandez: Funny thing. I have Aparicio, Concepcion, Campeneris, Fernandez in that order ranking around 31-35ish at SS. DanR doesn’t approve… ; ) As I noted earlier, I have a strong suspicion that Fernandez was destined to be either HOMer or damn close to it when Bill Madlock broke his ankle. Then he was derailed again when he got him in the head and sunk into a rest-of-his-career funk at the plate. Too bad, he looked for all the world like he was about to break out with a decent mix of skills for a SS at the plate.

-Hal Baines: Didn’t play defense enough. Didn’t hit enough when he DH’ed. Yet hung around to seriously threaten 3000 hits. Joins Dave Kingman and Jose Canseco in the “oops we almost had to elect him” club. Sadly the writers will say the same for Harold’s rhymesake, Tim Raines.

-Jose Canseco: Speaking of the devil…. Sure seems like MLB blackballed him at the end. Maybe not, maybe he was just too big a pain in the butt. Either way, he was an injury prone slugger with no defensive value after his initial five-year outburst, and that doesn’t really cut it. And his pitching career wasn’t so hot either.

Wally “Absorbine” Joyner: Just for old times sake.

-Ken Caminiti: Another one who in my old system looked ballotable. Not so much these days. Couple excellent years, but the pre-roids years of adequacy and the post-roid breakdowns don’t help him much.

-Devon White: Great glove, so-so bat, a fine player to have behind you if you’re a pitcher like Curt Schilling. But not someone I want leading off.

-Eric Davis: I’m not sure if every part of his body was ever injured, it just seemed that way. A greyhound and a masher in one package, he seemed destined for the Coop/HOM. Instead, he hobbled his way to the finish line.


NOTABLE OLDIES

-Dick Redding: I’m not a believer. Those 1920s numbers aren’t pretty. I’d encourage everyone to look back at them again. It’s not pretty at all, and he needs all of them to make it. I’d rather induct Cannonball Adderley.

-Bob Johnson: I dunno, I’m not really taken with him, but WS may underrate him due to his awful teammates. If I used WARP I might be since he’s a prime candidate more than a peak or career guys. On the other hand, he’s got a case for MiL credit. He’s not helped by war discounts, though.

-Reggie Smith: I’m not really convinced that Smith’s inability to stay in the lineup is being taken seriously enough. Or maybe I’m taking it too seriously? He’s in my top 50, around Kiki and Dewey in RF, around Berger, Murphy, F. Jones, and Hack W., in CF. None of those guys have made my ballot at any time that I recollect, so I’m at least internally consistent on this one. Maybe someday when I incorporate Dan’s WARP that’ll change, who knows.

-Bret Saberhagen: I don’t really oppose Saberhagen, I just don’t know that he offers significantly more than Cone or other pitchers of the sort. I won’t be bothered by his election, should it come to pass, but I won’t be surprised if he drops down the rankings as the Cones, Browns, and others come along.

-John McGraw: Even peakier than I can stand. And with all those durability issues. I’ll prolly like him better when I get around to putting DanR’s numbers together.

-Tony Perez: Him again? Yuck. A few good years at 3B and 20 years of mediocrity to dreck at 1B. No thanks.

Really? *NO* war credit for pitchers? On the only-so-many-innings-in-an-arm theory?

OCF#7
15. Luis Tiant (16, 15, 14, 13, 13) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value.
17. Bret Saberhagen</b> (---, 17, 15) How to place an 80's-90's pitcher who excels in value per inning but in relatively few innings versus 60's-70's pitchers (Tiant and John) who have innings-eating bulk but less value per inning. It was easier to to rack up that value per inning (but in fewer innings) in the 90's, during the tail end of Saberhagen's career; it was easier to rack up bulk innings in the 70's, with Tiant and John.
19. David Cone (new) See Saberhagen.
20. Tommy John (18, 17, 17, 16, 17) RA+ Pythpat record of 281-244 with no big years. Compare to Tiant: the difference of 57-80 is pretty much a wash, and Tiant had some big years.

It's hard for me to see the love for Tiant along these lines. By career innings he is closer to Cone & Saberhagen than to Tiant. By single-season ranks in innings, his showing is worst of the four.

<u>Innings - ( name ) - IP - CG</u>
4700 John.John.John 4 - 4
3500 TIANT _ TIANT 3 - 6
2900 _CONE CONE_ 4 - 7
2600 _Saberhagen_ 4 - 8

left, career innings pitched
right, league-season top tens
Among their season top tens in innings, John has two rankings (2nd, 5th); Saberhagen (1st, 3rd, 5th) and Cone (1st, 5th, 5th) both have three rankings above than Tiant's career best (6th).

#33: I think Tim Salmon was the AL MVP in '95! Great defense and baserunning and stayed out of double plays. It adds up. Belle #2, Thomas #3, John Valentin #4, Edgar #5. Edgar was a DH, his baserunning was crappy, and the Kingdome was a hitters' park.

I found something I wrote for a few friends in 1995. (No access to defensive metrics, working only with stuff I could calculate myself from stats I probably got from USA Today., inadequate park corrections) At the time, I said: 1. Edgar, 2. Belle, 3. Randy Johnson, 4. Salmon, 5. Valentin. I was writing it after the MVP for Mo Vaughn had been announced; I did say that Martinez, Belle, Thomas, and Salmon were all better hitters than Vaughn. I even named a full 25-man all-star roster (10 pitchers, 15 position players). I had an awful lot of 1B/DH on that team: Edgar and the Hurt in the starting lineup, Palmiero, Vaughn, and McGwire on the bench. And Jim Thome was in the starting lineup at 3B.

For the '95 NL, I said: 1. Maddux, 2. Piazza, 3. Bonds, 4. Larkin, 5. Biggio.

Wow, even today, 12 years later, it's still "anybody but Albert." Bud Selig thanks you.

Really? *NO* war credit for pitchers? On the only-so-many-innings-in-an-arm theory?

Reductively, yes.

1. Edgar, 2. Belle, 3. Randy Johnson, 4. Salmon, 5. Valentin.

That's almost precisely how win shares sees it, if you look only at the position players.

"I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one."

I think Dick Redding's 3-5 dominant years hold up to Wilbur Cooper's pretty well.

I also think _no_ war credit is unfair for many reasons. There is the pitcher like Newcombe who lost their prime seasons. Then there is someone like Tommy Bridges who lost the tail but came back and pitched 4 years in the PCL. I can see not giving war credit at the beginning of a career but no war credit at all for pitchers seems really unfair.

2007 ballot. Oh the drama, who will make it this year. Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire have a shot… Methodology in brief: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. Once that is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture, a composite worthy player. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Cal Ripken (-). Sure he hung around for years at the end but the value was always there as well. Man of a thousand stances at the plate.

2. Tony Gwynn (-). The yin to Wade Boggs’ yang when talking about hitters of the late 80s. Always fun to watch a Gwynn/Maddux AB since there was plenty of thinking going on with both men.

3. Mark McGwire (-). Watch who you’re bashing with those forearms there Popeye. The few games with him at 3rd base in 86-87 must have been quite entertaining to watch.

4. Dick Redding (1). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected. The last NeL pitcher I’d deem as worthy of induction.

5. Tommy Leach (3). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in. Useless trivia: Still holds World Series record with 4 triples in a single series.

6. Norm Cash (4). Interesting debate with the Perez/Cepeda/Cash comparison. There appears to be fielding value on his end than the others at 1B.

7. Bobby Bonds (5). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son. Five tools on display.

8. Reggie Smith (6). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup. I don’t currently give him Japanese credit, it’s a tough call.

9. Bob Johnson (7). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

10. Tony Mullane (8). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

11. Mickey Welch (10). Another one of those annoying 300 game winners. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey. Seemed to pitch well against the other front line starters of his day.

12. Bucky Walters (11). Short time NL prime starter who has the numbers downgraded a little by the defensive support which was above normal standards. Still high quality and heck this is the backlog.

13. Lance Parrish (13). This is a nod to a position where I think career value can come in handy. Except for the no-brainer catchers how low on an all-time list do we take it? Was a ballot supporter of Bresnahan so I’m partial to catchers.

14. Luis Tiant (16). Takes the place of Carl Mays who moves down a bit. Between him and Saberhagen I’m splitting hairs in that they make up the 2nd tier of their respective careers.

15. Bus Clarkson (14). Wow, to pick between him and Rizzuto was a tough one. Both were SS, have to take some extraneous factors into account. I guess I tipped a little more toward the one who looked to create more offensively.

16-20: Rizzuto, Saberhagen, Poles, Lundy, Mays
21-25: Duffy, Byrd, T John, Bell, Cone
26-30: Newcombe, McGraw, Shocker, Bancroft, Easter
31-35: Lee Smith, Perez, Willis, Ben Taylor, Luque
36-40: J Clark, Munson, Elliott, Cicotte, Cey
41-45: Brock, Doyle, Tenace, Cedeno, Williamson
46-50: Bridges, Grimes, Dunlap, Reuschel, Puckett

Top 10 Returnees: Perez (#32), Puckett (#50), Cravath (not top 50), Saberhagen (#17), Rizzuto (#16), McGraw (#27). Tony Perez, his career is long enough but some time was spent just piling up average numbers. The questions about his 3rd base defensive value damper any excitement over his candidacy. Puckett, I’m a bit perplexed. Short career, OK bat for centerfielder. Remember by the end he was a rightfielder. The glovework I wasn’t so impressed with even with him stealing HRs over the Hefty Bag in the Metrodome. Cravath, I’m seeing value but he’s behind Singleton and Howard in the hit/can’t field grouping and they aren’t in my top 50. Saberhagen and Rizzuto are just missing – with three ahead of them elected they should hit ballot in ‘08. McGraw had tremendous value when in lineup but missed time is enough to drop him below others. I’d like Leach first among those from the hot corner.

New guys:
David Cone gets put in at 25. Saberhagen gets the nod, but not by much. Tony Fernandez probably makes top 100, really good considering at this stage of the HOM process we have backlogger overload.

I’ll be out of town Monday, so have to post now before I leave or miss out. Not that it’d make much difference either way. I doubt Monday's enough of a holiday to push the deadline back.

2007 ballot:

1. Cal Ripken, ss
2. Tony Gwynn, rf
Two great, well-rounded players – and no, that’s not a dig at Tony’s late-career girth. (PHOMs)

3. Mark McGwire, 1b: No boycott, no devaluation. Likely the biggest pharmaceutical effect on him was helping him stay healthy. (PHOM)

4. Bobby Bonds, rf: 5-tool outfielder. Had the speed and skill to play center, at least early on, but the Giants had some other guy there already. (eligible 1987, PHOM 1996)

5. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

6. Lee Smith, rp: Standout reliever for many years. His best seasons are spread out in his career. (He was pretty spread out himself.) Career vote. (eligible 2002, PHOM 2005)

7. Bruce Sutter, rp: Terrific ERA+ and incredible WS rate. Established the mold for the modern closer, but wasn’t confined to the 1-inning regimen. Career’s a bit short. (eligible 1994, PHOM 1997)

8. Kirby Puckett, cf: Only 12 seasons, but really nice ones. (eligible 2001, PHOM 2002)

9. Phil Rizzuto, ss: Big jump. I’d like a little more peak, but with credit for the missing years, he’s got the career value. Great defense, infield anchor for a bunch of pennant winners. (eligible 1962, PHOM 2005)

10. Dick Lundy, ss: I’m so glad this has happened. He was on my ballot, fairly low, for several years, but then got squeezed off and I sort of forgot about him. Whether he gets elected or not, at least attention is being paid. He looks even better with the new translations. (PHOM 2006)

11. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. Too many bad seasons have ruined his chances. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

12. Lance Parrish, c: I’m a little surprised he comes out so well, but here he is. 9-time first- or second-team all-star, 324 HR, A-rated defender. (PHOM 2004)

13. Lou Brock, lf: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985, PHOM !997)

14. Lefty Gomez, sp: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA. Pitched for a lot of good teams. He had something to do with that. (eligible 1948)

15. Bucky Walters, sp: STATS handed him 3 Retro-Cys. I see 7 all-star quality seasons. I’m warming up to him, but his overall W/L & ERA+ aren’t outstanding in context of career length.



Required comments:
Bob Johnson, lf: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the better outfielders in his league almost every year. He’s fallen back, there’s nothing exciting there. (eligible 1951)
Dick Redding, sp: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) 10(?) Negro League pitcher. PHOM 1966 but I’ve cooled off since.
Reggie Smith: The only drawback is lack of durability. Excellent in every other respect. He is just off this year, maybe next year.
Bret Saberhagen: He’s a possibility but there’s that even/odd problem. Wish he had another good season or a little more bulk.
Tony Perez, 1b/3b: Less peak than Cepeda or Cash, more than you-know-who. Better as a 3b than where he played most of his career. (eligible 1992)
John McGraw, 3b: Great when he played, but couldn’t stay on the field. Played 80% of his teams’ games only 3 times.

2007 ballot - our (and my) 110th

wow, what a long strange trip it's been, but we're finally caught up!

I had last year's electees Clark-Oms-Nettles at 1-xx-8 on my ballot.

This year I realized I have been giving moderns short shrift; that has been rectified.

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs/IP per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day or pitched a ton of innings.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.


1. TONY GWYNN - Hit .289 as a rookie, then rang up 20 straight .300 seasons (the last 2 as a pinch-hitter). Hit .394 in 1994. Top 10 in OPS+ 7 times. Long-career type of HOM arc, but a higher peak and better prime than that model. Ah, 1997. Hit .372 with 119 RBI (by far a career high at age 37). Just a nice exclamation point on a HOM career.
2. CAL RIPKEN - Hurt his team a little and even his own stats a bit late in his dopey streak, and 2nd half of his career adds little to his cause. Top 10 in outs made in 13 different seasons. But he was a monster in 1983-84 and 1991, outstanding in 1985-86-88, nice work in 1990 and 1999, etc. Outstanding fielder for a while at a key defensive position. No-doubter 1st ballot HOMer, if a little overrated.
3. MARK MCGWIRE - Cleared 170 OPS+ a remarkable 7 times, with a silly 216 and a 200. 4-time OPS+ league champ. Dreadful on the basepaths and often in the field, but has way more O than a FHoward or a Cravath.

4. DAVID CONE - Extremely similar to HOMer Stieb. 8 major prime seasons to Saberhagen's 5. I suspect people are underrating Cone's remarkable 1994, giving not enough credit on a strike-ruined season. 175-96 from 1988-99. Even won all 5 of his World Series starts, with a 2.12 ERA.
5. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years and now finally has climbed back nearly to "elect-me." I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but I see no better player on the board.
6. REGGIE SMITH - Completes a 10-year renaissance from off-ballot to my top modern full-time OF. Not certain he's a HOMer, either, but solid in so many respects. Weird patterns of high-skill vs high-PA, but he's just damn good every year, basically. Played a lot of CF, and quietly was one of the better OFs of his era. Closer to Puckett defensively than I had thought, and finally he wins this battle.
7. BRET SABERHAGEN - 1985, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1994 - this is a truly great pitcher in those years. So even though he brings little else to the table - well, the 1998-99 300 total IP or so were good, too - it's enough to beat out the rest of this pack. My 1st time voting for him; that's an error by me.
8. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over an endless span, though I'd hardly say he's a 'must-elect.' Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition, so I discount that a bit. But has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
9. ALBERT BELLE - Eerily Kiner-esque and Keller-esque, and I like if not love these mashers. Wouldacoudashoulda been such an easy pick if not for the sudden career crash. It is true that in subsequent years even more of these types have proliferated.
10. BOB ELLIOTT - Good to see him mentioned in a discussion thread 6-7 years back, at least. Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B. Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out HOMer Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see DaEvans thread).
11. BEN TAYLOR - Had meant to reconsider him for years; finally did so 4 yrs ago. Long career, excellent fielder, consistent player. I'm not 100 pct sold on the hitting MLEs, but very good reputation and for sure a quality player. Moves up slightly.
12. VIC WILLIS - Won a Howie SP bakeoff with Grimes and Walters, with slightly more career than Walters and better peak than Grimes. It's close, but I'll stick with Willis for yet another year.
13. DAVE CONCEPCION - 6th time on my ballot. Peak is as good or better than Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. But he needs the modest credit in that regard to outlast Rizzuto. Similar case to Bancroft, whose prime I preferred in other years to Concepcion's length. It's close.
14. KEN SINGLETON - Bob Johnson-like, but not quite as good for quite as long. Equally underappreciated in his time.
15. KIRBY PUCKETT - Good prime for a CF, but not amazing. I had said if I wasn't sold on him being an excellent defensive CF in his first 6-8 years, he'd drop a bit. And now I believe his defensive prime didn't last that long, so he has dropped slowly but surely. I'll pass on the intangibles, but he holds his own against BobBonds offensively, for instance, and has just enough at the finish line to pass DaMurphy on long prime.

AMONG THE TOP 10 RETURNEES, BUT I'M NOT VOTING FOR THEM (YET)
BUCKY WALTERS - Bounces from off-ballot again; has seen my ballot before. Seemed to get Jim Palmer-like defensive support, without enough super-stats to make that irrelevant. Proved his mettle outside of 'war years.' Lemon-esque, though I wasn't a big fan there.
JOHN MCGRAW - Wow, never thought I'd see him on THIS list again. Actually was too underrated collectively for a while. Incredible .466 OBP, but basically in a 7-8 year career of semi-regular play, and relatively mediocre in slugging. Weird career that I think befuddles some of the group's strict systems of voting.
TONY PEREZ - Faked it for 5 years at 3B, mostly a 1B and a lotta stat-padding on the downside. Doesn't have the peak I want in guys like this, nor the sufficient OPS+ toward the end.
GAVVY CRAVATH - Have voted for him before; do give him some minor league credit, absolutely. A reasonable pick; I just think that not only did he get a huge boost from the Baker Bowl, others could have done the same. Anyone else who has THIS much more MLB production in his 30s than his 20s? Yes, but not many.
PHIL RIZZUTO - Wow, the required "2nd look" nearly put him on my ballot. I'll grant a lot of war credit and stipulate to the great fielding. But even 3 war credit years gets him only to 13 main years, and the fielding made him above-average overall but not excellent in most seasons. Yet at closer look, similar case to Concepcion when you cancel out the irrelevant parts.

JUST MISSED
DALE MURPHY - I've seen the light, at least in terms of a near-vote. A different peak-primieness than Belle, and a different fade. I will re-review both for 2008.
ORLANDO CEPEDA - Suddenly popped up on my ballot 10 years ago with the reevaluation. Had been losing out to Perez with positional consideration, but closer look shows a sterling top-4 and top-10 offensive line. DH opportunity added nothing to his case.
DAVE BANCROFT - Not sure if I ever voted for him before 10 years ago. But look at the prime: fantastic fielder at SS, with OPS+s of 120-19-19-09-09-09-04. Won a fresh 3-way evaluation vs Fox and Concepcion at one point, then fell to Davey. Similar to Randolph, but an SS.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing onto this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
RON CEY - In the past I have had him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting. Talk me into voting for him.
LEE SMITH - Very tough one. 10 seasons I really like a lot, only 1 or 2 I love. Sutter has more to love, less to like. A lot of RPs do. Off my ballot, but very much in consideration.

2. CAL RIPKEN - Hurt his team a little and even his own stats a bit late in his dopey streak,

Besides the fact that it's the manager's responsibility to bench a player, who would have done a better job than Ripken from the O's during those years?

ALBERT BELLE ... It is true that in subsequent years even more of these types have proliferated.

Manny "arrived" about a year younger than Belle, has now played through two years older, and isn't done yet. They were even once teammates, although Manny's 165 RBI year was after Belle left Cleveland. When you said "these types," Manny was the first name I thought of.

2007 ballot

Gwynn, Ripken, and TBD make my PHOM this year

1. Tony Gwynn is probably the non New Yorker who I saw the most of live (boy it was easy to get cheap Mets tickets in the early 90‘s) (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. Cal Ripken (makes my personal HoM this year)
3. Don Mattingly should have got a ring in 94 (made my personal HoM in 2001)
4. Kirby Puckett was there ever athlete who lost his reputation like he did (made my personal HoM in 2001)
5. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
6. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
7. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
8. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
9. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
12. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
13. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
14. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1994)
15. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
16. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1995)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
19. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
20. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
21. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
22. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
23. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
24. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
25. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
26. Bill Mazeroski 2nd greatest (fielding) 2nd baseman (McPhee‘s 1) ever (made my personal HoM in 1985)
27. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1985)
28. Dave Parker would be higher with out his extra credit (made my personal HoM in 1997)
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
30. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1985)
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1967)
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1967)
33. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
34. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
35. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1994)
36. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
37. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
38. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
39. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
40. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
41. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
42. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
43. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)
44. Dave Bancroft led SS in range factor 7 times (made my personal HoM in 2002)
45. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
46. Jack Morris in short (because unfortunately I don‘t have time to post an extensive search on the subject) looking over retrosheet I found his ERA to be inflated somewhat by a few bad performances that overstate his ERA to win expectation leading many to believe his win record was inflated by his teammates more then I think is true though I found his teamates did prevent him from getting the loss what appears to be more then normal
for example in 1984 he went 19-11 with a 3.60 era though he only had 2 wins where he gave up more then 4 ER
there a basically few games in which rose his ERA to heights above his expected win level give him the loss but each of these games effects his era more then 1 game should.
on 6-2-1984 in 6.0 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 1.88 to 2.20 getting the loss
on 6-12-1984 in 3.0 IP he gave up 6 runs 6 being ER raising his era from 2.11 to 2.51 getting the loss
on 6-29-1984 in 5.2 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 2.39 to 2.63 getting the loss
on 7- 3-1984 in 4.1 IP he gave up 8 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 2.63 to 3.08 getting the loss
on 7- 18-1984 in 4.0 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 2.99 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8- 7-1984 in 1.1 IP he gave up 9 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 3.08 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8-16-1984 in 3.2 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 3.57 to 3.84with a no decision (give him the loss here but don’t take away the wins he did get from him)
(made my personal HoM in 2000)
47. Buddy Myer 1935 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1996)
48. Cecil Cooper most rbi twice (made my personal HoM in 1997)
49. George H. Burns most hits twice gets PCL credit (made my personal HoM in 1998)
50. Burleigh Grimes 20 wins 5 times (made my personal HoM in 2002)
51. Ron Guidry most wins from 1977-1986 (made my personal HoM in 2004)
52. Brett Butler never would have thought he would make it when I started this project (made my personal HoM in 2005)
53. Lefty Gomez most strikeouts in the 30’s (made my personal HoM in 2005)


explanation for players not on my ballot
Bob Johnson with out WWII adjustments is borderline with them he’s quite a bit lower
Andre Dawson too low a BA/OBP for my tastes and not enough power to make up for it as is he’s not so far off from my ballot and may make my pHoM in the future
Dick Redding barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Bucky Walters would have been in my pHoM with out WWII adjustments as he is he’s still close to it
Tony Perez needs more of a peak to meet with his career
Reggie Smith a border line member of the Hall of Very Good
Brett Saberhagen to streaky
Mark McGwire

... .. ./
.... ./
. <u>. / </u>
../

we are here to talk about the past

"Besides the fact that it's the manager's responsibility to bench a player, who would have done a better job than Ripken from the O's during those years?"

It would be naive to say that the manager had that say. He'd have been fired before the game began.
On a single day in June, Ripken would be better than the replacement. But down a stretch run, I think Ripken would have been a better player throughout had he taken a couple of games off earlier in the season. I see it as a net loss, particularly because playing shortstop will wear you down more than DH or even right field.

I suppose one could criticize today's managers for not playing their star middle infielders all 162 games, but I've never see that claimed.

Indeed I'm almost certain I've read research (on BP or THT, I think) in the past two years suggesting that just five games off from April through August was enough to keep players fresh through September.

Can't give you a citation, though.

But down a stretch run, I think Ripken would have been a better player throughout had he taken a couple of games off earlier in the season.

I think most people around here would agree with that - I certainly would. But are you also saying that there were years during the streak that the Orioles would have benefited if he wasn't on the team at all? This I would disagree with, but I don't know if its what you are saying.

Yeah, it seems to me if he was worn out and not playing at an optimal level, well, it's already there in the numbers. They're already discounted, so to speak. If he is an A caliber player but playing at a B level because he's tired, you're saying you'll rate him a C because he should have been better. Makes no sense.

It would be naive to say that the manager had that say. He'd have been fired before the game began.

I hear this all of the time, but I just don't buy it. How would management justify it? They couldn't and would be a public relations fiasco.

If he is an A caliber player but playing at a B level because he's tired, you're saying you'll rate him a C because he should have been better. Makes no sense.

It makes sense if you think that Ripken was pulling all of the strings and there was someone from the Orioles that was better to fill in for him, but I see zero evidence of this.

1)Cal Ripken Jr – Peak, career, fielding, hitting, longevity.
2)Tony Gwynn- I remember reading some article on him years ago that stated if he wasn’t so fat he coulda hit 20 points higher a year.
3)Mark McGwire- Never broke the official rules.

4)Kirby Puckett- If players like Charlie Keller get in on short (but excellent) careers; than Puckett is a shoo-in. Great peak and clutch player who shouldn’t be penalized by a freak injury. He missed the years that would have pumped up his career totals, but his legacy was made in the years he played.
5) Chuck Klein – 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
6) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
7) Luis Aparicio – nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists. I saw alot of love for Ozzie, how about some for Looie?
8) Burleigh Grimes – 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
9) Pie Trayner – .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
10)Ernie Lombardi – 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
11) Dale Murphy – A heckuva peek, gets points off for a lousy batting average.
12) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished. If Freehan is in, than Thrum deserves consideration.
13) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
14) Albert Belle – For 10 years, he was absolutely terrific. Uber-Peak. The fact that he was a class A jerk should not detract from his on the field greatness.
15) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller got more votes than him.

no soup for...
16) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
17) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
18) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
19) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
20) Dave Parker – Drugs are bad, mmkay?
21) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
22) Don Mattingly –
23) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
24) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
25) Joe Carter – Better than the Baylor/Smith/Johnson trifecta, but still not top 15 material.
26) Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
27) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
28) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
29) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
30) Jack Morris- Big game pitcher. Nuff said.
31) Tommy John &
32) Jim Kaat - Longevity certainly, Greatness no.
33) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
34) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
35) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
36) Vida Blue – What might have been…
37) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
38) Don Baylor &
39) Reggie Smith The Hall of very good beckons
40) Bob Johnson (see Baylor & Smith)
41) Bucky Walters- Nice peak, but not enough.
42) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
43) Lee Smith – Career aggregator. Scary looking mofo too.

Off ballot- Saberhagen and Cone had great years, but not enough of ‘em.

25) Joe Carter – Better than the Baylor/Smith/Johnson trifecta, but still not top 15 material.

Player OPS+ PA
JCarter 105 9154 (only one _season_ at 130 or higher)
DBaylor 118 9401
ReSmith 137 8050
Johnson 138 8047

Sometimes I think I'm reading your ballot upside-down.

1. Ripken Duh
2. Gwynn Duh
3. Dick Lundy $178,239,117 When assessing NgL stars, reputation and stats are both necessary conditions for my vote. Lundy now has both.
4. Rick Reuschel The late-70's through the 80's crushed pitcher value, and when you account for this, Reuschel should be in. HT to those who saw it first.
5. Phil Rizzuto $173,175,176 With war credit, and malaria credit for 1946, he nudges above the rest of the MLB SS backlog.
6. Bret Saberhagen See Reuschel.
7. John McGraw $163,585,393 Awesome peak rate, crappy durability, played in an era conducive for his skills
8. Dagoberto Campaneris $167,565,867 Better than Concepcion, but dung slightly juuuust in case the SS drought wasn't entirely contextual.
9. Johnny Pesky $161,323,415 All war credit
10. Luis Tiant Didn't throw that many innings in his great years, but the innings he threw were hellaciously effective
11. Dwight Gooden 1985 might be $50mil+ in my salary estimator once I have concrete pitching #'s to use.
12. David Concepción $159,343,562 Pass.
13. Dom Dimaggio is the most underrated player in the elgible backlog.
14. Burleigh Grimes His best rate year doesn’t line up with his dominant durability years, but he pitched TONS of innings at a good-enough rate.
15. Don Newcombe $157,393,547 With Korea credit. There's a pitcher drought from the 40's; I suspect we've been too stingy in judging the effect of the war(s) upon pitchers.

---------------------
Bucky Walters is a defense + wartime mirage.
Bob Johnson was a corner guy in a weak league. If Belle's prime doesn't get you in...
Dick Redding's MLEs arent good enough, despite a good reputation
Tony Perez is manifestly unqualified

And lastly, I'm pretty sure the whole 1910's was dirty, but that doesn't mean I'd vote for Hal Chase on the first ballot. McGwire is an embarassment.

I am pretty sure that he was referring to Al Smith and Billy Johnson. You can actually make a case that Carter was more valuable than Don Baylor, taking into account the fact that he grounded into fewer DPs, Carter's longer time in the outfield, and perhaps a small clutchiness bonus for all those ribbies.

"malaria credit for 1946"

I hope you don't mean you're giving him credit for his 1946 above what he actually produced. I revised my war credit for the seasons he wasn't around based on eliminating 1946 from his "typical" performance. I don't think I'd go an extra step and pretend his 1946 was better than his actual performance. Should I give illness credit to Pete Browning or Andres Galarraga? How about Lou Gehrig?

Just curious, where does Cone rank for you?

I don't think I'd go an extra step and pretend his 1946 was better than his actual performance. Should I give illness credit to Pete Browning or Andres Galarraga? How about Lou Gehrig?

I do go that extra step, since the illness was contracted in military service.

Tony Gwynn- I remember reading some article on him years ago that stated if he wasn’t so fat he coulda hit 20 points higher a year.

Unlikely. He was fast when he was younger - remember that he was a basketball star. He had over 300 career stolen bases, including 56 in 1987 (when he hit .370). He went 17-5 as a base stealer at the age of 35, 12-5 at the age of 37. He never stopped playing the outfield. It does seem likely that his late-career weight gain cost him playing time and thus hurt his counting totals - but I don't see that it would have had much impact on his BA, and certainly not 20 points worth.

I do go that extra step, since the illness was contracted in military service.

The consensus position that evolved on this is very odd, but I learned to live with it.

The electorate defines war credit very narrowly. If your career is destroyed by real military service, while your buddies are playing ball stateside, that's your tough luck after 1945.

Or so I gather from the electorate's treatment of Cecil Travis. He had 2/3 of a HoM career at age 27, it's hardly a reach to project him into the HoM.

'zop, I assume you are being consistent and projecting out Cecil Travis's full career? Why isn't he on your ballot?

Cecil Travis had the flu in 1939, though it wasn't from military service.

I do go that extra step, since the illness was contracted in military service.

A very slippery slope. Not only does that lead to Cecil Travis revisited (not a bad candidate on the whole), but what about the legions of potential ballplayers who contracted STDs from European and Asian prostitutes and subsequently failed to reach their full potential? Where do you draw the line?

'zop, I assume you are being consistent and projecting out Cecil Travis's full career? Why isn't he on your ballot?

I don't give credit unless there is a "bookend"--seasons both before and after which we can use to project the missing time. Travis is obviously the exception that tests any war credit system. My entirely arbitrary assumption with Travis is that you can give him credit for his war years, but you can't guess at what he would have been with all of his toes, since you have no data on what a healthy Travis would have done in this 30's. With Rizzuto, we know with much more certainty how to fill in the "missing" season, and so I feel more comfortable granting credit.

That being said, I would be completely OK with Cecil Travis in the HoM...in fact, I've always wondered why Dan R. never had him on any of his lists, even w/o post 1946 credit.

His 1941 was good enough to win an MVP in almost any year that didn-t happen to have Williams and DiMaggio going nuts. But his career before that point wasn't particularly Meritorious...three mid-level All-Star years in '37, '38, and '40, and that's it. As you say, 'zop, you don't have anything on the back end to calculate credit, and '41 was pretty out of line with the rest of his career, so just taking a straight '35-'41 average for four years of war credit gets him to $140M--comfortably HoVG, but not near the ballot. He'd need one more All-Star year to be downballot, and two to make it, after giving him war credit.

> just taking a straight '35-'41 average for four years of war credit

What if you drop out his illness in 1939?

That would get him to 145. In/out is in the low 150's, and there are still plenty of guys left in the 160s and even one over 10 (Rizzuto).

typo, that should read over 170 (Rizzuto).

Of course you're averaging his pre age-27 years to figure out what he would have done from ages 28-30. Is there a PECOTA projection of his career?

Of course you're averaging his pre age-27 years to figure out what he would have done from ages 28-30. Is there a PECOTA projection of his career?

If we're going to play these kind of war credit games, then Dom DiMaggio should step right to the front of the line.

Remedial mind-reading 101 is in session
:)

Yes, I think Ripken could have done a little better overall with occasional rest. Yes, it shows in his stats alreday. No, I didn't double-count.

Anyone that sees the streak as a net positive presumably believes that any HOM-caliber player should not ever sit out a game unless injured. Especially for quality offensive middle infielders, where surely the replacement is well below that level.
But I don't buy that.

Cal Ripken OPS by month:

Mar/Apr: .790
May: .793
June: .812
July: .820
August: .766
Sep/Oct: .748

But I think, if memory serves, that most players see some tailing off in September. Someone with the facts should confirm or disconfirm that.

Yeah and whatever stats you use, they already reflect the fact that he wasn't as productive in Sept. as in June. It sounds like what you're saying is that because he should have taken a rest and been more productive, I'm gonna pretend that .748 in Sept. was really a .648. That is goofy.

2007 ballot. Primary analysis tool: nonlinear combination of Win Shares (ERA+) and rate during optimal prime. Secondary effects: league strengths, population/number of ML teams based "timelining", effective playing time bonus, e.g. for catchers and modern pitchers, positional balancing.

My ballot could be criticized for being so bat-heavy. My PHoM is actually well-balanced between positions, it just so happens that there are more bats just above the ballot cutoff than gloves, and I don't believe in positional balancing at the ballot level.

1. Cal Ripken Jr. One of greatest SS of all time.

2. Mark McGwire Above Gwynn despite less playing time because he achieved a higher level of dominance. As with Canseco, Giambi, Bonds, etc., I'm ignoring (or will ignore) PED concerns, I'm not sure that it's the right way to go, but I don't see MLB forfeiting the games, awards, and championships involving these players.

3. Tony Gwynn Run of the mill corner outfielder HoM (in a good sense).

4. Wally Schang Correcting for the 154-game schedule and the WWI-shortened seasons, has as much career value as Freehan in as many games, at least by Win Shares. Schang's lesser season-by-season totals is because in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards. The Bresnahan argument applies to Schang, too. Career leader in WS among major league catchers when he retired. A case where WARP is not as flattering as WS, perhaps accounting for Schang's lack of support.

5. Tommy John Career pitching candidate in the mold of Faber or E. Wynn. Kaat is also similar. I can see how some voters would not put Tommy John within a mile of their ballots; on the other hand, John's decent showing in the most recent mock BBWAA election shows that some level of support exists.

6. Albert Belle His peak actually came later by age than Clark's, something that I had forgotten because of how quickly his career ended. Best player in MLB in 1998, a great season overshadowed by the Sammy-Mac battle in the weaker, watered-down NL. Arguably the 3rd greatest LF peak ever, well behind Bonds and Williams (not enough LF time to count Ruth in this discussion), but ahead of everybody else. (Some other players such as Ruth did have equally great single seasons in LF, but weren't really long-time LFers). These are the kinds of historic credentials required to vote for a player with so little outside of his peak. I see him as more similar to Keller than to Kline, but then again, I supported Keller but not Kline.

7. Brian Downing This is a vote that will raise eyebrows, I'm sure. I have double-checked the numbers, and did not find any errors or compelling reasons to change my methodology, although the subjective strangeness of the outcome makes me question most (1) whether the career value portion of DH-era players ratings should be docked because careers tended to be longer (2) whether being among the best DH in a season is worth as many peak points as I'm giving. He ends up so high from a combination of every quirk in my system breaking in his favor: catcher "bonus" for the catcher years, treatment of DH as a position in itself, population-based timelining, and consideration of league strength/affect of DH in a league.

8. Jose Canseco Makes my ballot because (1) my analysis shows the AL was significantly stronger than the NL during his peak (2) he was the best player in baseball at his peak (3) I don't penalize for lack of in-season playing time, except so far as it decreases career totals. With all that, similarities to Jack Clark and Norm Cash, who I'm also rating higher than most.

9. Jack Clark Most similar players: R. Smith, Burkett, Heilmann, Cepeda, Singleton A "tweener" career that was good enough for long enough to land on my ballot.

10. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF, unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). I should call the bats that crowd the middle to bottom of my ballot "quadruple-A HoM candidates". Why did Dw. Evans get elected to the HoM, and not Staub too?

11. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

12. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

13. Lance Parrish Had two or three excellent seasons, but his career was greater than his peak. An offensive plus who caught many games; 5th all-time in HR as a C; played in strong leagues. These credentials help place him on my catcher-heavy ballot.

14. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

15. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF. One stat that I've tabulated for fun is career Win Shares times career WS per plate appearance. It's not a perfect stat, but does correlate well with HoM selections. In this measure, Reggie Smith is the highest unelected player. That doesn't prove that he's a HoMer, but does suggest searching for reasons for his lack of support (which has turned around recently): (1) he's a 'tweener' between peak and career; (2) he missed a lot of playing time so that while his rate stats were always well above average, they don't show always lead to high season-by-season totals for those who look at things that way (3) he split defense among several positions; some may be rating him as a RF and neglecting his CF play.

Other notable newbies.

Those at or very close to PHoM level:

Tony Fernandez Similar players: Campaneris, Billy Herman, Concepcion. I have him above Concepcion.

Harold Baines Similar players: Staub, Dawson, Perez. One of top DH of all time, but a borderline candidate at best.

David Cone Similar pitchers: Marichal, Friend, Pierce, Finley, Simmons, L. Jackson, Stieb, a list that defines the vague HoM borderline. Actually higher than Stieb in my system.

Solid HoVGers:

Eric Davis Similar (at least by value) players: H. Wilson, Cravath, Maris.

Paul O'Neill Similar players: Magee, Otis, Manush.

Bobby Bonilla Similar players: Bando, J. Collins, Elliott.

Last year's returning top 10 that aren't on my ballot are all top half of the HoVG types.

Dick Redding I like 2B/IF Sol White and P Bill Byrd a little better.

Bob Johnson Recent discussion of the surplus of 1930s players and the lack of 1950s makes me even less inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. 1950s player of similar greatness: Gil Hodges.

Bucky Walters With appropriate WWII discount, career looks a lot like Frank Viola's.

Tony Perez Similar players: Dawson, Parker, Vernon. Add in Mickey Vernon's missing seasons (which likely would have included his peak), and you get a career strikingly similar to Tony Perez's. Take into account the dilution of talent post-expansion, vs. the strong 1950s competition, and Vernon is superior. The "why A and not B" game is tiresome, but I really hope that Perez supporters will at least take a close look at Vernon.

John McGraw It's not the lack of in-season playing time, it's the cumulative career being so short that hurts his case. Al Rosen is a more recent and superior, IMO, 3B candidate with a similar high-peak short career.

Brett Saberhagen Similar pitchers: Key, Stieb, with Cone higher than all of them.

What???

1. Yes, the '98 NL was an expanded league, while the AL was not. Yes, Belle played left while McGwire played 1B (not that Belle was a Gold Glover or anything). But come on--McGwire's OPS+ was forty five points higher!. You would have to think the AL/NL gap in 1998 was bigger than the AAA-ML gap or something to overcome *forty five points of OPS*. Personally, I'd take A-Rod's 40/40 season and the usual Bonds excellence (higher OPS+ than Belle, much better defense and baserunning) over Belle's '98 as well.

As for the LF peak, I don't see how Belle's best is even "arguably" better than Yaz's.

Dan-

I don't think that you're even being honest in #79, using OPS+ to compare McGwire and Belle, rather than a more comprehensive estimate of value.

Comparing plate appearances, OPS+ and comprehensive stats for 1998:

McGwire 681 PA; 217 OPS+; 41 WS; 11.9/11.1/11.0 WARP1/2/3
Belle: 706 PA; 171 OPS+; 37 WS; 9.4/11.8/11.8 WARP1/2/3

McGwire and Bell are fairly close in WS. It does not require a historic difference in league strengths to view Belle's accomplishments as superior.

Using WARP, Belle comes out higher in WARP2 and 3, i.e., there is an analysis independent of mine that concludes that Belle had more value than McGwire in 1998.

Now you may disagree. For example, league factors can be reasonably estimated, but remain estimates, not statements of fact. You may conclude that the AL adjustment for 1998 that would make Belle > McGwire is too large. Or you may have other reasons for concluding that McGwire was more valuable. But my position is reasonable and well thought out, and I would hope that counterarguments be made in a respectful way.

Regarding Yaz and Belle, I stand by my statement. There is no precise way to define peak. Depending on how many seasons you pick, etc., one might reasonably argue that Yaz's peak was higher, which is why I qualified my statement about Belle's peak by "arguably". Personally, I rate Belle's as higher.

OPS+ measures one thing and one thing only, hitting. It is no good for comparing players across positions of substantially differing difficulty, or if players have different playing time, or if the quality of their fielding is different, or if the quality of their baserunning is different. None of these issues come up with McGwire vs. Belle. They both played full seasons at right-spectrum positions and were unremarkable fielders and baserunners. Their merit is entirely due to their hitting, and McGwire's absolutely obliterates Belle's.

WARP1 (which needs a DH adjustment) has Mac by a comfortable 2.5 wins, despite giving him -13 FRAA, which would suggest he was virtually Mo Vaughn out there. The DH is worth 0.6 wins (just calculate it--take a stat line in one league and see how many wins it loses compared to the other's league average), so crediting Belle with that leaves Mac by 1.9, which is just about right before a league strength adjustment--use any standard run estimator and 1B-LF positional adjustment and you'll get something similar.

Now in WARP3 they have Belle by 0.8. You're telling me that a player going from the '98 NL to the '98 AL would lose 2.7 wins??? The current league strength disparity, which is almost certainly the biggest since the end of the integration process, is estimated at around 10 wins per TEAM. 2.7 wins for one position, times 8.5 position players, plus 55% of that for the pitching staff, is THIRTY FIVE WINS PER TEAM. So according to BP's league strength adjustments, the '98 Yankees would have gone 149-13 in the 1998 NL, while the 106-win 1998 Braves featuring Chipper, Galarraga, Javy Lopez, Andruw Jones, Maddux, Glavine, Neagle, Smoltz, and Millwood would have finished 71-91?? Come on.

I imagine this is what Howie Menckel is talking about when he says that there is too much reliance on "immature" uberstats in the group. You have to look under the lid of these things. WARP3 also says Red Schoendienst was more valuable than Dick Allen. That's an "independent analysis"--and it's also batsh!t crazy. I'm sure you're a bright guy. Don't just rely on BP and Bill James to do your work for you. If the method you're using suggests that a team switching leagues in 1998 would see its record change by 35 games, maybe it's time to get a new method.

As for Yaz vs. Belle, is there any # of seasons that puts Belle ahead? Yaz's '67 and '68 leave Belle's '94-'95 in the dust. Yaz's '70, '63, '69, and '77 are pretty similar to Belle's '98, '96, '93, and '99, although Yaz's are a little better. And then the rest is all Yaz's career, which Belle doesn't have.

I don't see what's disrespectful about pointing out the extent of the assumptions necessary to support your claim.

41. OCF Posted: November 08, 2007 at 01:18 AM (#2608979)
#33: I think Tim Salmon was the AL MVP in '95! Great defense and baserunning and stayed out of double plays. It adds up. Belle #2, Thomas #3, John Valentin #4, Edgar #5. Edgar was a DH, his baserunning was crappy, and the Kingdome was a hitters' park.

I found something I wrote for a few friends in 1995. (No access to defensive metrics, working only with stuff I could calculate myself from stats I probably got from USA Today., inadequate park corrections) At the time, I said: 1. Edgar, 2. Belle, 3. Randy Johnson, 4. Salmon, 5. Valentin. I was writing it after the MVP for Mo Vaughn had been announced;

I wrote something along those lines at the same time but limited to the big three. I agreed with the writer-voters and locals (Boston) that there was someone plausibly more valuable than Belle, namely Martinez. Why shouldn't the runs scored leader be more valuable than the runs batted in leader. Consider the rest of the record, chiefly the outs.

DanR:
The current league strength disparity, which is almost certainly the biggest since the end of the integration process, is estimated at around 10 wins per TEAM.

Really? Meaning that 89-73 in the AL is about ten wins stronger than 89-73 in the NL? Two such teams would win something like 99 and 79 games if they switched leagues? Not one NL team would be a favorite to win half its games in the AL?

And (is there consensus?) the difference in favor of the NL was even greater in the 1950s? --greater, meaning at least 10 games in 154.

56-57. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 09, 2007 at 09:33 AM (#2610252)
in the fray over resting Cal Ripken
> It would be naive to say that the manager had that say. He'd have been fired before the game began.

I hear this all of the time, but I just don't buy it. How would management justify it? They couldn't and would be a public relations fiasco.

I hear all the time that the object is winning, but I just don't buy it. I take for granted that Cal Ripken Jr, the field manager, and upper management always knew that the commercial value of the playing streak was greater than that of any wins its termination might bring by giving Cal more rest.

If the field manager announced after the game one night that Ripken would rest tomorrow, there would be time for management to intercede. If the field manager submitted a lineup without Ripken at the last minute, that would evidently be by design to avoid any discussion (acting at the last minute rather than the first minute, the opposite of preemptive). That would be a symptom of discontent. What field manager would do it if he really valued the job?

Yes, definitely it's currently around 10 wins per team. See my article on the subject. Both MGL and Nate Silver gave me that estimate.

I haven't seen any definitive study on the 50s, but I imagine the gap was at least as big. By my count, in terms of value in the decade, the AL had three guys whom peak voters would support for the HoM (Williams, Mantle, and Berra), while the NL had twelve (Roberts, Spahn, Campanella, JRobinson, Mathews, Banks, Kiner, Musial, Mays, Snider, Aaron, and FRobinson).

Now in WARP3 they have Belle by 0.8. You're telling me that a player going from the '98 NL to the '98 AL would lose 2.7 wins??? The current league strength disparity, which is almost certainly the biggest since the end of the integration process, is estimated at around 10 wins per TEAM. 2.7 wins for one position, times 8.5 position players, plus 55% of that for the pitching staff, is THIRTY FIVE WINS PER TEAM.

Dan, while the subtance of your post is correct, I don't think this is exactly how the BP WARP1-WARP3 adjustment works. It seems like the more WARP you earn, the more boost you get in the WARP1-WARP3 translation. Bernie Williams 1998, for example, only gets 1.7 extra wins (still excessive, of course).

Of course, the relationship b/w the boost and the original amount of WARP1 seems non-linear, so I have no idea how BP is calculating it. But I don't think they're claiming a 35 win difference b/w the leagues.

No one knows how the WARP1-WARP3 adjustment works. Just checking 1998, position players in the AL added 1.7 wins per 685 PA on average from WARP1 to WARP3, while position players in the NL added 0.1 wins per 685 PA on average from WARP1 to WARP3, so sorry, they're only suggesting it's a 21-win gap. Not that that changes anything.

What's even *more* ridiculous is that in the 1998 NL at least, some players gain in the WARP1-WARP3 adjustment while others lose! Check it out--Barry Bonds improves from 13.2 WARP1 to 13.5 WARP3, while Mark McGwire falls from 11.9 WARP1 to 11.0 WARP3. It's not a park factor thing either; those are definitely handled in the season-adjusted numbers. How the same league-season could be of different difficulty for different players is beyond me...quality of opposing pitchers faced, maybe? Hard to believe...

WARP3 is just garbage. Sorry, but it is. And so is WARP1, for that matter. The only way to use BP WARP as far as I'm concerned is to use the season-adjusted BRAA and FRAA and then add on your own replacement levels and league quality adjustments.

Part of the differences in the adjustments have to do with the adjustment of fielding positions to an "all-time" context. If you compare Bonds to McGwire, you find that the disparities in their adjustment from WARP1 to WARP2 lie in the fielding adjustments. Bonds as a LF gains one FRAA and 6 FRAR on top of that. McGwire as a 1B loses 1 FRAA and 2 FRAR on top of that. So differences in the fielding adjustment account for 10 runs of difference. Bonds' gain in fielding is enough to more than offset the 5 run drop in batting value both he and McGwire suffer going from WARP1 to WARP2, while McGwire's loss in fielding adds to his loss in batting.

So the story the BP stats are telling is that McGwire was a bad fielder in a time when average first basemen were weaker defensively than the all time standard BP uses (that seems not unlikely) but when first base was slightly higher in defensive importance than the BP all time standard (that seems surprising) while Bonds was an outstanding LF at at time when left fielders were slightly stronger defensively than the all time standard but when LF was lower in defensive importance than that all time standard. LF in the AL, where Belle played, gets the same treatment as NL LF, so 1 win of Belle's gain on McGwire is attributable to the position-specific fielding adjustments.

So, although we don't know _how_ WARP sets the fielding adjustments, we can know at least why all players aren't similarly adjusted.

Note: I believe that differences in the fielding adjustment account for any perceived non-linearity in the shift from W1 to W2.

Now, as to the actual significance of this conversation: Some people think that if you don't understand all of this, you shouldn't be participating in this project. Other people don't think that and never did.

The only part I understand is this:

>WARP3 is just garbage. Sorry, but it is. And so is WARP1,

This I understand. Oh, and WARP2.

Thanks, Chris. That explains it--although it doesn't make me think the numbers are any more useful.

"It sounds like what you're saying is that because he should have taken a rest and been more productive, I'm gonna pretend that .748 in Sept. was really a .648. That is goofy."

I'm sure the "you" is not meant to be me, because after you misunderstood the first time, I clarified it further.
But I'm mystified as to who the "you" actually is here.

If the field manager announced after the game one night that Ripken would rest tomorrow, there would be time for management to intercede. If the field manager submitted a lineup without Ripken at the last minute, that would evidently be by design to avoid any discussion (acting at the last minute rather than the first minute, the opposite of preemptive). That would be a symptom of discontent. What field manager would do it if he really valued the job?

To answer your last question, Paul, a field manager would have to be gutless not to do what is right for the club.

If I was the manager and was either reprimanded or fired for sitting Ripken, I would make the greatest stinkbomb in the press that you ever saw. Ultimately, the front office and/or Ripken would have to come out and say either that I was right or that they value the damn streak (which I personally could care less about in terms of value for the team) over winning. How would they win that argument with the fans or the press?

Anyone that sees the streak as a net positive presumably believes that any HOM-caliber player should not ever sit out a game unless injured.

I don't see the streak as either necessarily a positive or negative. Like Gehrig's, I just wish it was secondary to Ripken's actual career value.

Does any semi-educated fan *not* see Ripken and Gehrig as #2 and #1 all-time at their positions based on actual career value?

Howie, you're right, I missed that little detail in #75. I got distracted by the most recent mini-controversy about about the state of American semi-education.

PHoM 2007 – Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire


1. Ripken I liked the streak.
2. Gwynn Could hit.
3. McGwire Too bad he didn’t come clean. Americans will forget and forgive anything except cover-ups.
4. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time. NHBA #25 pitcher.
5. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak – 3 WS Cy Youngs, 1 runner up.
6. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. Stark says he is overrated, but Stark didn’t give him any war credit. NHBA #16.
7. Cooper, W PHoM 1942. Returns to my ballot in 1995 after 44-year hiatus. His peak was during a thinly recognized period. 1 WS Cy Young, 3 times runner up. Willis may have been better, but his era is more strongly represented.
8. Singleton PHoM 1997. Not many players on ballot with 3-32+ and 6-27+ WS seasons.
9. Duffy PHoM 1912. Compared with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS, Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons, 3 best and 8 best seasons. If WS overrate him, then so do I.
10. Burns, G. PHoM 1996. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have, better late than never. Above the HoM median in 5 and 10 consecutive peaks and 3 best years.
11. Murphy PHoM 2002. 4 consecutive seasons with 30+ WS
12. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
13. Mays, C PHoM 1997. His era could use another pitcher. A quality pitcher we are overlooking. NHBA #38.
14. Newcombe PHoM 1998. Giving more war and mle credit (1993). NHBA #46.
15. Saberhagen PHoM 2005. Nice peak.
16. PuckettPHoM 2003. NHBA #98 overall.
17. Belle PHoM 2006. Jooooo-eee. Jooooo-eee. Jooooo-eeee.
18. Leach PHoM 1926. Teddy bear.
19. Mattingly PHoM 2004. NHBA #12.
20. Howard, E PHoM 1995. NHBA #15
21. Cone
22. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
23. Bando PHoM 1994. NHBA #11 (Boyer #12)
24. Parker PHoM 2005. Do the first base line Dave. NHBA #14.
25. Howard, F A peak voter has to like him better than guys like Dawson and Smith.
26. Berger
27. Rosen If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
28. Bonds, Bo Barry’s dad was pretty good.
29. Munson NHBA #14
30. Staub Most career value on the ’02 ballot.
31. Veach
32. Wilson, H
33. Lundy With the late breaking data, conservatively placing him here. Will look at him some more. Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey.
34. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles.
35. Evans, Dw I know he is a HoMer, just holding his place for the PHoM.
36. Perez Not enough good seasons to be higher. Jayson Stark says he is overrated.
37. Dawson Elected I know, but re-evaluation drops him on my PHoM rankings.
38. Cepeda
39. Tiant
40. Cash, N
41. Doyle PHoM 1930.
42. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
43. Grimes
44. Ryan, J
45. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan? Walked 16 in stellar pitching performance 6/27/1887.
46. Elliott
47. Traynor
48. Brock not enough peak to be higher
49. Pinson
50. McGraw Best 3B of the 90’s
51. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
52. Sutter I like him better than Fingers.
53. Arlett
54. Johnson, Bob Don’t see the support.
55. Nettles d.o.
56. Hershiser Not sure about this placement. Still looking.
57. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
58. Oms Just don’t see the evidence to justify having him higher.
59. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
60. Bell
61. Murcer
62. Evers Comparable to Randolph.
63. Randolph A PHoM place holder. Overrated by HoM.
64. Cey
65. Mazeroski
66. Colavito
67. J. Rice

Ripken, Gwynn and McGwire require no explanation. Reggie is in the 30's, Redding is not in my consideration set, Indian Bob is in the 40's, Perez is in the 60's, Saberhagen is in the 90's practically tied with Cicotte, John McGraw is in the 50's...he lacks the career value I like...great peak though.


1. Cal Ripken Jr. -

2. Tony Gwynn -

3. Gavy Cravath - there's no arguement that he took advantage of his park. i say great for him. no one else on his team was able to do it to the extent that he did.

4. Mark McGwire -

5. Lee Smith - I am sure this won't be popular. Someone has to be a fan of the reliever. Might as well be me. I voted for Fingers, Gossage, Wilhelm, and continue to vote for Sutter and Jack Quinn. As far as I'm concerned, he is the Eddie Murray of relievers. Never really stood out, or pops into your mind as a stud, but quite consistent, and for quite a long time. I would have no problem with the HOM or HOF opening their doors to more relievers.

6. Orlando Cepeda - very consistent for a long time.
7. Bucky Walters - not as much career value as I typcially like, but enough peak to offset for the lack of career.
8. Don Newcombe - if you give him any NeL and Korean War credit, he has quite a case.


9. Bus Clarkson - I am willing to speculate that he was better than Stephens.

10. Vern Stephens - a power hitting, perrennial MVP shortstop is someone I can vote for.

11. Bruce Sutter - basically the same arguement as I have for Walters.

12. Elston Howard - I admit, I missed the boat with him a long time ago. Given proper credit, and my love of catchers, he should've been on my ballot long ago.

13. Chuck Klein - see Cravath

14. Bobby Veach - Tons of credit for pitching in 1918...ok, just kidding. Good career value though. Similar to Cepeda in the sense that he never stood out, but was consistent for a long time.

15. Jack Quinn - giving him credit for PCL play, being a fan of relievers, and a ton of career value makes him a viable candidate for my ballot. if he had been in the majors before the age of 25, I believe he would've got 300 wins and that milestone would've made a huge difference to some voters.

The AL was only 4 games over .500 in interleague play in 1998, so where would anyone get the idea it was vastly superior to the NL?

2007 Ballot

1. Cal Ripken - Regardless of what your feelings on the streak are, the fact remains that only Wagner has a definite claim as better at the position. Vaughan and a few of the Negro Leaguers are in the conversation, as well.
2. Mark McGwire - Hit, walked and hit some more. Most feared hitter in the game for a three year period, and in the top 5 for at least 3 others.
3. Tony Gwynn - Professional hitter. Well-rounded player until the late career weight gain, and even then still hit the ball.
4. Hugh Duffy - Great bat, great glove, OPS+ not nearly as bad as his detractors would have you think.
5. Ken Singleton - Consistently a top-5 bat. Worth 15 batting wins in his top-3 seasons.
6. Bret Saberhagen - Great peak. Only quibble is not enough IP, but he's right there with his contemporaries. Very similar to Steib.
7. Thurman Munson - I'm sold that he was very similar to Freehan. Thurm is starting to get the support he deserves. Take another look, if you haven't lately.
8. Buddy Bell - He's very close to Darrell Evans in my system, just a bit better than Nettles. Not complaining about Nettles' election, but take another look at Bell, too. He also belongs.
9. Albert Belle - A great hitter and a terrible person. Some parallels to Dick Allen and Browning, though not quite as good as those two.
10. David Cone - Really hurt by the 1994 strike, as that was his best season. He's not far below Saberhagen in terms of value. When I started voting, I said Dobie Moore and Mendez were Cone-like. I came around on them being more than Cone-like, and as I looked at Cone, I was short selling him then, too.
11. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
12. Tommy Leach - Wow did I miss him for a while. Love the WARP, the career, just not the peak, though it was OK.
13. Rick Reuschel - Beginning to come around on Joe's analysis of him. I don't think he was quite as good as Joe makes him out to be, but he's still a worthy candidate, IMO.
14. David Concepcion - Concepcion was very close to Ozzie's equal, and probably deserves enshirement.
15. Phil Rizzuto - Right there with Concepcion with War credit.

Lundy is 17th, thanks to the new evidence.

Required Disclosures:
Bob Johnson - Down near 50 - just not enough peak or prime - kind of Beckley-lite in that regard.
Reggie Smith - In the 20's - I prefer Dale Murphy.
Bucky Walters - Used to like Bucky a lot. We elected Steib and I took another look at Bucky. Too many question marks. He's still in the Top-20, though.
Dick Redding - Used to love him, took another look at him a few years back - his numbers in the 20's don't help his case. Still, he's in the 20's, not much lower than Welch and John.
John McGraw - Doesn't have the in-season durability I prefer. Still a heck of a candidate, and with more playing time, would be a shoo-in for me.
Tony Perez - I'm perplexed by his support. Didn't hit when he played first, didn't field when he played third.

Newbies and such:
Fernandez is 21 - he's better than I thought, and is a worthy candidate.
Baines is in the 30's down with Frank Howard and friends.
Paul O'Neill is #23, right there with Jack Clark and Dale Murphy. One of my all-time favorites.
Canseco was obviously blackballed, but doesn't have enough of an overall profile to make my top-50. Still a hell of a slugger, though.

PHOM - Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire

1. Cal Ripken
2. Tony Gwynn
3. Mark McGwire

They were good.

4. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

5. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

6. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career.

7. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

8. Leroy Matlock - MLE's show a pretty good 3000 innings and a nice peak.

9. Dale Murphy - Great hitting centerfielder. Excellent peak from '82-'87.

10. Bret Saberhagen - Similar to Trout. Good peak. May have been the MVP in '89.

11. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

12. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

13. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

14. David Cone - Similar to Saberhagen, but never had a season like Sabes '89.

15. Kirby Puckett - Good hitting, good fielding centerfielder. Not a long career, but a very good peak.

16. Dick Lundy
17. Albert Belle
18. Frank Tanana
19. Lee Smith
20. Buddy Bell
21. Ken Singleton
22. Bobby Bonds
23. Hugh Duffy
24. George Van Haltren
25. Ceasar Cedeno
26. Dave Parker
27. Brett Butler
28. Vada Pinson
29. Tommy John
30. Norm Cash
31. Lance Parrish
32. Elston Howard
33. Tommy Leach
34. Orel Hershiser
35. Burleigh Grimes
36. Bus Clarkson
37. Bob Elliott
38. Ron Cey
39. Marvin Williams
40. Dave Concepcion
41. Tony Fernandez
42. Harry Hooper
43. Luis Tiant
44. Buzz Arlett
45. Don Mattingly
46. Orlando Cepeda
47. Gil Hodges
48. Reggie Smith
49. Jack Clark
50. Jose Cruz
51. Willie Davis
52. Fielder Jones
53. Dick Redding
54. Rick Reuschel
55. Pie Traynor
56. Dennis Martinez
57. Jim Kaat
58. Gene Tenace
59. George Foster
60. Wally Berger
61. Fred Lynn
62. Vern Stephens
63. Dick Bartell
64. Ernie Lombardi
65. Toby Harrah
66. Lou Brock
67. Tony Phillips
68. Red Schoendienst
69. George Burns
70. Paul O'Neill
71. Bert Campaneris
72. Rabbit Maranville
73. Lave Cross
74. Cy Seymour
75. Ed Konetchy
76. Bobo Newsom
77. Jack Morris
78. Jose Canseco
79. Mickey Vernon
80. Bobby Bonilla

I have no idea why, but from around the mid-80s on, WARP has the AL as significantly better than the NL. Part of it is the DH, I'm sure, but that isn't all of it, and the difference was much less dramatic in the 70s. To throw one example out there, Barry Larkin's career totals: 110.0/123.5 Ripken's are 126.7/169.3. I still use WARP1 as part of my analysis (with certain adjustmets), but not WARP3.

Which reminds me, I kept meaning to post this comment from Davenport in a chat.

Chris (Pittsburgh): Clay, quick WARP question for you. I've heard that you can't simply add up individual players WARP numbers to get the team totals (and later proved it to be true). However, the question I have is, can I say that replacing a 1.0 WARP player with a 3.0 WARP player on a team will generally give the team two more wins? Secondly, will the WARP formula ever be put into print, or is it something you'll likely take to your grave.

Clay Davenport: Starting from the back end - the parts of the warp formula that aren't in print are like that because they aren't backed by a simple sequence of formulae, but by several thousand lines of code that interlock on themselves until I'm not entirely sure I always understand what's happening. And part of the reluctance to sshare that is to keep everybody from seeing what a bad programmer I can be at times, with ugly code, unmemorable variable names, reuse of variable names, lack of comments - ugh.

Generally speaking, yes, you can say it adds two.

And the reason they don't add up is because there is the assumption that they are being added to an otherwise average team. Start with the Yankees, add A-Rod, Posada, Jeter... by the time you get to Cano or Damon or Giambi or, dear me, Mientkiewicz, you aren't adding them to an average team anymore.

I don't want to overreact to that because he could just mean that the code is sloppy, but it give the impression that even he doesn't actually know how it all works.