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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Monday, November 30, 20092010 Results: Stars of the ‘90s Larkin, Alomar and Martinez Shine the Brightest at the HoM Today!Star Reds shortstop Barry Larkin was the standout performer in the latest Hall of Merit election with his 94% of all possible points in his first year of eligibility. All-time great second baseman Roberto Alomar was also impressive with his 84% as a newbie himself. Last but not least, Seattle Mariners legend Edgar Martinez became the first full-time DH ever elected to the HoM. The first-time candidate earned 37% of all possible points. Rounding out the top-ten are: David Cone, Phil Rizzuto, Gavvy Cravath, Hugh Duffy (back in the top-ten!), Bucky Walters, Luis Tiant and Rick Reuschel (first time in the top-ten!). Thanks to OCF for his help with this election’s tally! See all of you again here next year! RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 n/e Barry Larkin 938 40 26 13 1 2 n/e Roberto Alomar 849 41 11 16 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 n/e Edgar Martinez 371 26 1 1 3 3 3 4 3 1 2 3 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 5 David Cone 316 22 2 2 4 2 1 2 1 1 4 1 1 1 5 4 Phil Rizzuto 220 16 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 1 2 6 6 Gavvy Cravath 219 19 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 3 2 7 14 Hugh Duffy 208 15 1 2 1 1 2 1 4 1 1 1 8 8 Bucky Walters 200 16 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 9 9 Luis Tiant 198 15 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 1 2 10 13 Rick Reuschel 187 13 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 7 Tommy Leach 185 14 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 12 10 Cannonball Dick Redding 185 13 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 13 n/e Fred McGriff 174 14 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 14 15 Don Newcombe 172 14 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 15 16 Dave Concepción 163 13 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 16 11 Kirby Puckett 145 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17 20 Vic Willis 142 11 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 18 12 Bob Johnson 140 12 1 2 2 1 1 3 2 19 22 Bobby Bonds 132 11 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 20 23 Burleigh Grimes 124 10 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 21 17 Tony Perez 120 8 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 22 18 Dizzy Dean 113 9 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 23 30 Tommy Bridges 104 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 24 21 Johnny Pesky 97 9 1 1 1 1 3 2 25 26 Bus Clarkson 95 7 2 1 3 1 26T 27T Ken Singleton 90 8 1 2 1 2 1 1 26T 24 Mickey Welch 90 8 3 1 1 1 1 28 27T Bill Monroe 85 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 29 29 Albert Belle 80 8 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 30 25 Dale Murphy 80 7 1 1 2 1 1 1 31 34 Ed Williamson 77 5 1 1 1 1 1 32 35 Bert Campaneris 75 4 2 1 1 33 32 Ben Taylor 74 6 1 1 2 1 1 34 33 Bob Elliott 73 6 1 2 2 1 35 38 Norm Cash 71 6 2 1 1 1 1 36 42 Fred Dunlap 69 6 1 1 1 1 2 37 19 George Van Haltren 65 5 1 1 2 1 38T 31 Elston Howard 62 6 1 1 1 1 2 38T 40 Rusty Staub 62 6 1 2 1 1 1 40 39 Tommy John 62 5 1 1 1 1 1 41 46 Sal Bando 62 4 1 1 1 1 42 81 Buddy Bell 57 5 1 1 1 1 1 43 48 Larry Doyle 56 4 2 1 1 44 37 Pie Traynor 55 5 1 1 1 1 1 45 79 Kevin Appier 48 4 1 2 1 46T 49T Addie Joss 48 3 1 1 1 46T 44 Frank Tanana 48 3 1 1 1 48T 36 Lou Brock 46 4 1 1 2 48T 43 Urban Shocker 46 4 1 1 1 1 50 41 Lee Smith 43 3 1 1 1 51 45 Vern Stephens 41 4 1 1 1 1 52 52 Babe Adams 40 2 1 1 53 51 Ed Cicotte 38 2 1 1 54T 55 Don Mattingly 37 3 1 1 1 54T 77 Al Rosen 37 3 1 2 56 47 Carl Mays 36 3 1 1 1 57 83 Tony Mullane 35 3 1 1 1 58 53 Chuck Klein 32 3 1 1 1 59 82 Frank Chance 32 2 1 1 60T 62T Ernie Lombardi 31 3 1 1 1 60T 54 Sam Rice 31 3 1 1 1 62 59 Jack Quinn 31 2 1 1 63 57 Dave Bancroft 30 3 1 1 1 64 56 Leroy Matlock 30 2 1 1 65 49T Wally Schang 29 2 1 1 66 87T Hilton Smith 25 2 1 1 67 60T Rabbit Maranville 23 3 2 1 68T -- Luke Easter 23 2 1 1 68T 62T Dizzy Trout 23 2 1 1 70T -- Orel Hershiser 22 2 1 1 70T 64T Jim Kaat 22 2 2 70T 73 Thurman Munson 22 2 1 1 70T 58 Jimmy Ryan 22 2 1 1 74T 69T Orlando Cepeda 21 2 1 1 74T 66T Bruce Sutter 21 2 1 1 76 66T Sam Leever 20 2 1 1 77T -- Cesar Cedeno 19 2 1 1 77T 71T Dwight Gooden 19 2 1 1 79 71T Dave Parker 18 2 1 1 80T 69T George J. Burns 17 2 1 1 80T 60T Jim Rice 17 2 1 1 82T 80 Chuck Finley 16 1 1 82T 74T Tony Oliva 16 1 1 84 74T Tommy Bond 13 2 1 1 85 78 Hack Wilson 13 1 1 86 -- Jim McCormick 12 1 1 87 64T Lefty Gomez 11 1 1 88T 85T Fielder Jones 10 1 1 88T 91T George Kell 10 1 1 88T 85T Deacon Phillipe 10 1 1 91T 95T Bill Madlock 9 1 1 91T -- Nap Rucker 9 1 1 93T 84 Ron Cey 8 1 1 93T 87T Elmer Smith 8 1 1 93T 87T Jack Fournier 8 1 1 93T 91T Jack Morris 8 1 1 93T 97T Al Oliver 8 1 1 93T -- Will White 8 1 1 99T 66T Wilbur Cooper 7 1 1 99T 91T Frank Howard 7 1 1 99T n/e Robin Ventura 7 1 1 102T -- Jose Cruz 6 1 1 102T 97T Charlie Hough 6 1 1 102T 95T Tony Lazzeri 6 1 1 102T 99 Billy Nash 6 1 1 Dropped Out: Bobby Veach (74T), Lance Parrish (87T), Dom DiMaggio (91T). Ballots Cast: 41 BTW, if you are a twitterer or facebookerer or myspacerer, please spread the word a bit about the election results. You can use this short URL: http://bit.ly/6KhOXT I’m sending this out, which fits under the 140 character Twitter limit with a couple of characters to spare: Barry Larkin, Roberto Alomar and Edgar Martinez elected to the Hall of Merit! Cone, Rizzuto, Cravath top runners up: http://bit.ly/6KhOXT Thanks!
John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy
Posted: November 30, 2009 at 08:44 PM | 140 comment(s)
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With that said, I wished the latter had gone through the gauntlet...
Plaques will be up sometime next week. I'll post the 2011 discussion thread tomorrow.
Indeed it did, Joe.
That said, I agree with John that it would have been nice to get another year to discuss Edgar. I supported his candidacy (and PHOM'ed him), but the DH question could have used more debate.
Reposting that quote from a comment on the ballot thread.
I'm quite disappointed that Edgar didn't have to 'run the gauntlet' as we say (meaning be discussed for a few election cycles instead of rushing him in. But hey, Bill Terry got in this way too and the world didn't fall apart.
Especially when there's a new metric that is somewhat controversial, especially in it's handling of said player's position - to see it so readily used to elect a guy on his first shot, without a whole lot of leading discussion (though it did pick up late) really surprises (and somewhat disappoints) me.
Also, the LY part of the vote is off. I'll fix it, but I don't think that was updated. Rizzuto was the top runner up last year, for example.
That leaves the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Marlins, Rays and Rangers as current franchises without representation.
I agree, Joe. Unfortunately, I see more newbie borderliners sailing in regardless in the near future.
Fred McGriff's placement this year (13th) means that there should be at least one backlog spot available in 2012.
Not to be a nitpicker or anything, but I'm seeing some discrepancies with the last year ranking of some players.
For instance, Rizzuto was 4th last year, but you have him listed as 10th.
Cravath was 6th last year, but you have him listed as 7th, etc.
EDIT: Oops, Joe beat me to it.
I'm not so sure John. I think it would help if we picked up the discussion for 2 weeks before and the entire time during the ballot, like we did in the last week this year.
This year the debate boiled down to yes/no on Edgar, instead of promoting, Cone, Rizzuto, Cravath and Walters. That's where we (the ones who wanted Edgar to run the gauntlet) dropped the ball I think.
Consensus scores for this:
Maximum possible: +9
Mean: -5.5 (just a run-of-the-ordinary consensus season).
mystikx20: +5
Howie Menckel: +1
Chris Fluit: +1
Sean Gilman: 0
Kenn: 0
rawagman: 0
Bleed the Freak: -1
Devin: -1
Al Peterson: -1
OCF: -2
...
Mark Donelson: -4
James Newburg: -4
Rusty Priske: -4 (median)
AJM: -5
fra paolo: -5
...
John Murphy: -6
...
Joe Dimino: -7
...
DL from MN: -8
mulder & scully: -8
Patrick W: -10
SWW: -10
Daryn: -10
Juan V: -12
bjhanke: -14
karlmagnus: -19
yest: -37
Poor Hack, dropping out twice in one year.
Guys who aren't even in my HoVG:
Charlie Hough
Jack Morris
Will White
Jim Kaat
Bruce Sutter
Guys who are clearly HoVG:
Chuck Finley
Deacon Philippe
Ed Cicotte
Mickey Welch
Our agreement on what constitutes a replacement level position player is far higher than what constitutes a replacement level pitcher in each era. If that consensus builds, the pitchers will sort themselves out.
Bobby Veach(73T), Hack Wilson(77).
I'm not really ballot counting, but I believe yest voted for Wilson.
But we've been through their cases, and seen the arguments before. They each have their weaknesses, which we've seen along with their strengths. And some of us prefer Tiant or Reuschel to Cone, Pesky or Campaneris to Rizzuto, Johnson or Duffy to Cravath, Bridges or Shocker to Walters. How is a campaign to encourage consolidation of the backlog vote going to overcome those established preferences, and the arguments of voters who say you're promoting the wrong man?
You present your case and win people over. We'd been through Nettles and McGraw too. Then a focused campaign, based on logic and reason shot them up the charts.
Also, I like to use "n/e" to describe candidates that were not eligible, and "--" to show candidates that didn't receive votes, even though they were eligible.
I think what happened was that I save my spreadsheet after the 39th ballot last year. Though I added the 40th ballot and posted the correct results here, I must have forgotten to save the revised ballot counter. When I set up my spreadsheet for this election (by clicking onto a macro button), it was basing the LY numbers on 39 ballots, not 40.
I'll try to fix this tomorrow.
Take just the basics: Edgar has a 147 OPS+ in 2055 major-league games.
Only three players with a career OPS+ higher than Edgar have not been elected. They are
Gavvy Cravath, OPS+ 151, who has the whole MiL credit issue going and still finished at #6 this year,
Dave Orr, OPS+162 in a career of no more than 1000 season-adj. games in the 1880s AA,
Benny Kauff, OPS+ 149, in a career of about 900 season-adj. games, and whose career mark is an FL artifact: he never topped his career OPS+ in NL play
Considering only players with 2000+ games played in their careers, every single one with an OPS+ of 140 or better has been elected. The highest OPS+ among eligible, unelected players with over 2000 games played is 139, which belongs to Norm Cash.
So, really, no hitter with a career comparable to Edgar Martinez has been left out of the HoM.
One has to regard the DH as raising very significant issues about the face value of advanced batting statistics to argue against Edgar's inclusion. Given that the HoM electorate has been willing to elect fairly short-career, iron-glove outfielders if they could really rake (see Browning, Pete, and Kiner, Ralph), it's hard to see Edgar's election as anything but obviously consistent with prior standards.
The HoM line seems to fall decisively between Edgar and 1) Frank Howard, 2) Albert Belle, and 3) Norm Cash, who are the next three hitting candidates down with the highest combined OPS+/career length profiles.
He did, and Wilson should be on the results list with 13 points. The matching discrepancy: Welch should have only one 8th place vote and 90 points instead of 103.
Looks like Joe beat me to it. Thanks!
I see I'm going to have to prepare some stinging explanations of why you're all wrong about Hugh Duffy for next year. :)
BTW, John, did we settle on a cap for Alomar?
electees are not in caps
in a way, these are most-oft debated candidates
Welch, the P with the most pts, climbs to 5th
Redding climbs to 7th and 2nd among Ps, could catch Welch in 7-8 yrs if not elected first
Monroe into top 40
TOP 50, ALL-TIME
DUFFY...... 27226.5
VAN HALTREN 26851.5
Beckley.... 25856
Browning... 24502.5
WELCH...... 18537
Childs..... 18484
REDDING.... 17950
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
Jennings... 16976
CJones..... 15875
TLEACH..... 15563
Bresnahan.. 14965
Sisler..... 13892
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
RYAN....... 12663.5
Mendez..... 12555
Thompson... 12349
Roush...... 12005
CRAVATH.....11903
Bennett.... 11503
WALTERS.....11496
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
Beckwith.... 9896
DOYLE....... 9774
HStovey......9576
GRIMES.......9513
BJOHNSON.....9419
Mackey.......8930
AOms.........8385
Start........8378.5
McGinnity....8232
McGraw.......8145
DPearce......8073
McVey........7985.5
FGrant.......7969.5
BMONROE......7807
Kiner........7746
Suttles......7690
NFox.........7587
Trouppe......7494
WFerrell.....7259
CBell........6968
SCHANG.......6796
Galvin.......6585
WILLIAMSON...6579
Keller.......6424
will get to the "others in active top 50" another time
2006--Oct. 21, 2007--51
2007--Nov. 12, 2007--48
2008--Dec. 3, 2007--50
2009--Dec. 15, 2008--40
2010--Nov. 30, 2009--41
So the big drop-off (OK, 10) was last year. Up until last year, we always voted 2-3 weeks after the previous vote. We've got 2 years of experience now of voting a year apart. I'm gonna guess that there's probably about a half dozen new voters each of the two most recent years.
The results for indvidual players changed much less than I expected. The bigger changes occurred a year ago.
Name...08...09...10
Rizzuto 13...4...5
Cone 15...5...4
Cravath 11...6...6
Walters 5...8...8
Tiant 12...9...9
Reuschel 29...12...10
OK there are counter-examples.
Leach 6...7...11
Duffy 14...14...7
Puckett 9...11...16
B. Johnson 10...12...18
But overall the top 24 a year ago is the top 24 this year. Only Tommy Bridges cracked the top 25 who was not there a year ago. So maybe the idea of massive change is a chimera. I don't know. But I do think Edgar's performance is a harbinger of things to come. There will be a small handfull of new voters each year motivated by some borderliner or other. 4 Edgar voters were enough to sway it. But, of course, his primary competition is another recent player who was 15th as recently as 2008. So I think our electorate has changed just a little bit the past two real-time years, but that's just enuogh.
Has to be Toronto, Devin.
San Diego: .115 (.036, .042, .037)
Toronto: .279 (.061, .066, .078, .033, .041)
Baltimore: .183 (.091, .057, .035)
Cleveland: .240 (.108, .044, .088)
My vote is for Toronto.
2 rings, more value, prime years (though not his best individual seasons).
Too high or too low? He did jump from 14th to 7th. No clue why.
Next year--Bagwell, Brown, Cone
Thank you John, OCF and Ron for tallying.
I still think Joe's description of him as comparable to Bob Johnson in value is apt. Which means that Martinez was a serious candidate, but not one that had to have gone in his first year of eligibility.
With that said, we can't get everybody we want in every election. I'm satisfied with the results.
They were his bread and butter.
Also, Hernandez and Clark had much more initial support than Edgar. Edgar is much more like Bill Terry, in terms of Hall of Merit election, IMO.
With Terry, it was just like - oh crap, really? No further debate? Oh well. I feel the same way about Edgar.
And I'm not one that has Edgar way down the list, I've got him just off my ballot. But I just feel like it was rushed. C'est la vie.
Only if Raffy faces a big steroid boycott.
Especially funny since he didn't even actually drop out!
In my HoVG project so far, Will White is in. As are Cicotte and Welch. Philippe is not. Haven't gotten to the modern guys yet.
I believe this is the first toast reference in this whole HOM election cycle. Kudos (and I can't believe it took so long)
Our "election" of Edgar Martinez comes at a rough parallel of 35 to 40 pct of the vote.
Meaning, if you flip these over to Hall of Fame standards, we didn't elect him (and unlike some candidates, he doesn't have controversies or sentimental reasons that would likely produce a far different HOF opinion among the electorate).
He basically joins the crowd that replaces the 60 or so "bums" in the Hall of Fame who we are replacing with better alternatives - since we are accepting the total number of players chosen.
Unless Dan and I (and a few others) can successfully spread the gospel on Rizzuto. I'm going to try.
The problem is that his case does not jump out at you. I realize I'm stating that obvious, but it's more than just war credit.
I'm not convinced every voter realizes his 1946 was due to war induced malaria - and that he deserves extended military credit for that. And that you shouldn't kill his 1943-45 war credit because of his malaria induced lousy 1946. I wasn't even aware of the malaria until last year.
Or that he deserves minor league credit for 1940 - every bit as much as Charlie Keller got, for example.
Or that his defense really was 'that good'.
His actual career numbers, much like DiMaggio's show him in as bad a light as he could possibly be seen in. In virtually any other time and place, Rizzuto has a career that shows up as a convincing HoMer.
Again, Dan was able to get the group focused on guys like Nettles and McGraw. Focused enough to elect them anyway.
I think a well presented stating of the case for Rizzuto would certainly help. It could add him to a few ballots where he's borderline, and move him up a few that he's already on.
Same for Cravath - although he's had his case presented, quite well by Gadfly. I think we have focused on those two as the best pre-1990s backloggers, based on the results of the last two elections, now it's time to try to push them over the top.
There's nothing wrong with taking a little time on the borderline modern players. We've got a long time to elect them.
You can use this short URL: http://bit.ly/6KhOXT
I'm sending this out, which fits under the 140 character Twitter limit with a couple of characters to spare:
Barry Larkin, Roberto Alomar and Edgar Martinez elected to the Hall of Merit! Cone, Rizzuto, Cravath top runners up: http://bit.ly/6KhOXT
Thanks!
Why the automatic 3 rule? The Cooperstown Hall has a threshold (75%) which must be reached. Is it because every voter puts in 15 names? I still think a hard threshold would work here (I am sure you hashed this out years ago in some dusty old thread buried 23 pages back).
Too high or too low? He [Duffy] did jump from 14th to 7th. No clue why.
There is some gap between the tallies for #15 Concepcion and #16 Puckett. Meanwhile Puckett #16 and Willis #17 are the highest finishers who were not named on any of the four extra preliminary ballots (HGM, epoc, JWPF13, and let me count my own). For both reasons, consider the first fifteen.
How do the top fifteen stand on those four extra prelim ballots? Edgar Martinez extraordinarily well. At the other extreme Hugh Duffy #7 trails with six points worth of extra mentions. There isn't much support for #8 Walters, either. Because #9-10-11t Tiant, Reuschel, and Leach do well there. If those four prelims were cast, that trio would climb to ranks 7-8-10; Walters and Duffy would drop to 9-11.
This small difference in current support may be practically important in Duffy's favor. If all voters will be required to comment on the top ten from this election, meaning the first seven in the backlog next year, that requirement will help keep Duffy in view; it will make him one minor focus of attention. That goes for Duffy and Reuschel, in place of Leach and Redding for whom it worked (or didn't work) this year.
HR: Fred McGriff, 493 (26th) Jose Canseco, 462 (32nd)
Runs Created: Fred McGriff, 1704 (45th) Harold Baines, 1606 (60th)
Adj. Batting Runs: Fred McGriff, 447 (59th) Bob Johnson, 392 (73rd)
Adj. Batting Wins: Fred McGriff, 43.4 (58th) Jack Clark, 39 (73rd)
So what you're saying is that Edgar is a HoMer, just not a first-ballot HoMer? :)
1. Barry Larkin
2. Phil Rizzuto
3. Rick Reuschel
4. Johnny Pesky
5. Roberto Alomar
6. Dagoberto Campaneris
7. Luis Tiant
8. Reggie Smith
9. Dwight Gooden
10. Don Newcombe
11. David Concepción
12. Dom Dimaggio
13. Burleigh Grimes
14. Tommy Leach
15. Edgar Martinez
I wonder how that would have affected the outcome.
I'll let myself out.
DL from MN--could I trouble you to elaborate your placement of Reuschel below so many other hurlers? I am quite convinced he is the cream of the backlog P crop.
This is a bit different though. This election cycle was a year. If someone ran a few cycles before it was still only a month or two.
Edgar is a more "certain" version of Gavy Cravath. If everyone treated Cravath like his supporters do he would be elected.
In that sense, I think the electorate is showing consistency - which is good! - and people shouldn't be surprised or disappointed at the outcome.
The points system is pretty good, but I don't like the way a HoMer can get elected without being on 50%+1 of the ballots. It detracts from the 'marketability' of the HoM.
1. Bagwell 175 (no one's close!)
2 & 3. Reuschel 145 & Brown (won't know which order until I do a full work-up on Brown, but I'm guessing his low end is 140, high 155)
4. Walker 134 (just ahead of the next one on intangibles)
5. Palmeiro 134.4
6. Cravath 129.3
7. Campaneris 129.4
8. Rizzuto 127.8
9. Concepcion 127.7
10. Tiant 126.6
11. John 125.7
12. Dunlap125.1
13. Grimes 125.5
14. Rucker125.2
15. B. Bell 122.2
It's a strong entering class. It's clear there's been some movement on new metrics, and the extension back in time of better base-running and fielding metrics, which I'll need to account for in firming up the order for the backlog.
Joe, I'm one of the Rizzuto detractors, and I kind of apologize for the tone of the last post I wrote about Phil - it was a bit harsh on rereading - so I'm going to try to give you some help in the form of telling you what you would need to do to convert me.
The problem isn't war credit or even 1946 (although I'm leery of just writing off illness seasons, even if the malaria probably came from Italy). It's the entire context surrounding the war years. Here are Rizzuto's OPS+ before the fluke of '50:
41 - 96
42 - 103
46 - 74 (malaria)
47 - 100
48 - 79 (injured? he did miss some time)
49 - 88
So when I fill in the war years, I give them an average of about OPS+ 99, with one or two seasons of 102 or so. What else can I do?
In order to convince me to put Phil on a ballot, you have to convince me of one of the following two things, and probably both:
1) 1943-46 represent a peak that would just tower over the context surrounding them, a peak that was suppressed by the war. That's going to be a real hard sell. There are a lot of guys out there who would look real good if you could fill in missing years with years that are much better than the ones surrounding them that the player actually did play.
2) Convince me that, at the very least, Phil Rizzuto was as great a defensive shortstop as Maranville, Ozzie, and George Wright. Better than Marty Marion. It would help a lot if you could convince me that, somehow, Phil was better than any of those guys and somehow no one noticed.
These are tall orders, I know. Their height is why I don't have him on my ballot. Without them, he ends up drowned by Ozzie's glove and Rabbit's glove and career length. I have Rabbit at the bottom of my 15. At the very least, you have to convince me that Phil's career, with war credit, is the equal of Rabbit's. Right now, I am pretty thoroughly convinced of the opposite.
Please take this in the spirit I intend it to have. I'm not trying to make a case against Phil. I'm trying to give you some idea of what it would take to convince me. This is the kind of help I need on people like Will White. I'm a White supporter. I don't know what the thoughts of the opposition are, because I don't see them. That's what I'm trying to do here: Help you see how at least one detractor thinks, what my problems with Phil are. It's the kind of help I've been asking for, so I ought to offer up some of that when Joe posts up like he did in #47. It's only fair to give what you ask for.
- Brock
First, his 1950 stands out above his other seasons on OPS+. Maybe it was a fluke, somebody else will have to say what are the odds that a player with his overall record would have a season like that. But it happened. He did it. It's part of his record. You can't say, no, he is really the player of 1941-1949 and 1951-1954 and he's not the player of 1950. He's all of that.
Second, no one noticed? He is regarded, I think, as one of the great DP SSs ever. His throwing was particularly good. Bill James says that based on 1941-1942 he was recognized as one of the best SS in baseball. James says he struggled after the war and he hurt his shoulder in 1948. But in 1949 Rizzuto was the only Yankee regular who didn't have injury problems, he played 153 games and the Yankees won the pennant. He was regarded as the best SS in baseball and as the Yankees' MVP. In 1950 it was more of the same.
EDIT: Thx DanR for beating me to this and doing it better. I'm with Dan on this. The best evidence we have is the best evidence we have. But I would also argue that the anecdotal evidence is there and it's good, too.
Rizzuto hit .316 and .347 at Kansas City, then .307 as a rookie and then .284. I think the flukes were 1946 (malaria .257) and the shoulder in 1948 (.252). That's not to say that I give him any more credit for those years than what they're worth. But likewise, 1950 gets full credit for its value.
But the main point is that people did notice that he was a great SS. He and Marion are pretty equal from the numbers I've seen but of course Marion's OPS+ is even lower than Maranville's. Rizzuto 93 Concepcion 88 Maranville 82 Marion 81. The question is, were any of those other guys so much better with the glove as to wipe out Rizzuto's edge with the bat? Reasonable people can disagree about that but Rizzuto's defense was recognized and 1950 happened.
Reuschel got dinged by WARP1 which bumped him down slightly. I had him grouped with Tiant and Cone before. WARP1 changed again and he might slide back up. I'd like to see a discussion of WARP1 v Chone WAR v Dan R WAR for pitchers to figure out what each is bringing to the table. We can slip in the Pennants Added methodology too. I do need value above replacement as well as value above average to make an informed decision. I don't like to reward long career average players (Tommy John).
Prelim for next ballot:
1) Bagwell
2) Brown - so clearly ahead of Cone, up in Drysdale territory
3) Larry Walker - tremendous glove value for a RF, as good of a bat as anyone on the fringes. Those MVP votes were deserved.
4) Cone
5) Bridges
6) Tiant
7) Palmeiro - hard for a career voter not to find Palmeiro better than Edgar. Will have to wait for PHoM though.
8) Leach
9) Reuschel? - probably moving ahead of Shocker
10) Shocker
11) Bob Johnson
12) Kevin Appier
13) Ben Taylor - compare to Palmeiro?
14-20) Will probably be jostled about during the year
I like Olerud better than McGriff. Bernie Williams is down near Puckett but I'm pessimistic on CF compared to consensus.
Do I need to have a system to rank all players, or can I just focus on the top 50 guys in the back-log and the newbies? Must I have a "system" or can I just look at guys relative to who's in or out for the respective position/era?
Let's formalize this idea, the list of "bat" candidates.
Short career, 19th century
Player OPS+ G PA To FromLevi Meyerle 162 307 1453 1871 1884
Dave Orr 161 791 3411 1883 1890
Bill Joyce 143 904 4149 1890 1898
Ed Swartwood 142 724 3244 1881 1892
George Hall 142 365 1708 1871 1877
Longer career, 19th century
Player OPS+ G PA To FromTip O'Neill 143 1054 4720 1883 1892
Henry Larkin 141 1184 5302 1884 1893
Denny Lyons 139 1121 5010 1885 1897
Mike Tiernan 137 1476 6716 1887 1899
Short career, 20th century
Player OPS+ G PA To FromGavvy Cravath 151 1220 4645 1908 1920
Benny Kauff 149 859 3564 1912 1920
Mike Donlin 144 1049 4282 1899 1914
Lefty O'Doul 143 970 3659 1919 1934
George Stone 143 849 3668 1903 1910
Kevin Mitchell 142 1223 4696 1984 1998
Mid-length career, 20th century
Player OPS+ G PA To FromHack Wilson 144 1348 5556 1923 1934
Albert Belle 143 1539 6673 1989 2000
Jack Fournier 142 1530 6033 1912 1927
Babe Herman 140 1552 6226 1926 1945
Jeff Heath 139 1383 5560 1936 1949
D. Strawberry 138 1583 6326 1983 1999
Ken Williams 138 1397 5616 1915 1929
Pedro Guerrero 137 1536 6115 1978 1992
Wally Berger 137 1350 5663 1930 1940
Long career, 20th century
Player OPS+ G PA To FromJeff Bagwell 149 2150 9431 1991 2005
Frank Howard 142 1895 7353 1958 1973
Larry Walker 140 1988 8030 1989 2005
Norm Cash 139 2089 7910 1958 1974
Bob Johnson 138 1863 8047 1933 1945
Jack Clark 137 1994 8225 1975 1992
Chuck Klein 137 1753 7168 1928 1944
Sounds fair.
Are there some generally accepted valuation metrics that are used by a lot of voters? Not that I'd blindly follow a single value ranking, but are there 2 or 3 metrics that are in most peoples' consideration set? Obviously OPS+, coupled with some indication of quantity seems to be used a lot for hitting. I've seen reference to various WAR systems and win shares.
What do people find most valuable?
GO BARRY!
As I have said, I don't think the BBWAA is going to like him as much as the HoM guys do. But as a Primate, I am glad my favorite player is in the HoM.
I see the :-), but just to address it - I'm saying, I'm not 100% sure, heck, I'm not even 50% sure (and I don't really think we are as a group, either), so I think we should have taken a little more time. There's nothing wrong with saying I'm not quite sure yet. Especially when a player is one of the first handful of his peer-group to hit the ballot.
Yeah, but we hibernated for 49-50 weeks of that year . . .
RE: Post #47
...
2) Convince me that, at the very least, Phil Rizzuto was as great a defensive shortstop as Maranville, Ozzie, and George Wright. Better than Marty Marion. It would help a lot if you could convince me that, somehow, Phil was better than any of those guys and somehow no one noticed.
One problem is that we don't all agree that those shortstops make a group. Sabrmetric measures don't agree that those shortstops make a group. Some observers did and some ratings do put Maranville behind Marion. For some it's easy for some to respond by pouncing on Maranville.
68. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:18 AM (#3399995)
All the available numbers certainly show Rizzuto as in that class if not better...TotalZone puts him at +121 (with a particular strength on turning the DP)
No way. The Scooter's fielding reputation takes a big hit from Total Zone (the range component of choneWAR, there is also a DP component).
Considering how long he played Maranville isn't much better by TZ, perhaps in the second tier with Rizzuto in the third tier.
Remarkably, TZ otherwise revives the conventional wisdom of long ago. Joe Tinker and Marty Marion are back on top.
That's enough in this setting. I'll take it to "Phil Rizzuto" --only because Omar Vizquel waited too long to retire!
One thing I did was work up players who had similar value to what Rizzuto did for the known years, and filled in an approximation of what those players did in the missing years. I did this for everyone who missed significant WWII time.
I'll post the details when I get home . . .
I do think you need a "system" that can be applied to a range of players as opposed to something that only works for a finite set. e.g. the top 50 backlog. Some systems may work for 50 players but be unwieldy for any more than that. I speak from experience. I used to use a rank ordering but by about 1910 there was no way.
Anyway, you've got some time to put together what you think is defensible, so just do that, and then be ready to defend it! ;-) But especially be ready to defend it as fair to all eras.
You don't need to build your own system. But you should be aware of the systems that are out there already, the pros and cons of them, etc.
I'm a huge fan of DanR's WAR personally. I've got a pitcher system that I think does a pretty good job, especially in terms of adjusting for innings norms across eras. It needs some work on adjusting for career length across eras.
There's Chone's WARP, the BPro's WARP, Win Shares, etc. All are useful, all need some tweaking, like WS having too low of a replacement level.
It's quite possible Bill James will have his Win/Loss Shares out in the next year or so too.
Once you get involved and start reading, you'll realize you need to do more than just look at the top 50 returnees.
At a minimum, you'll want to look at everyone that has gotten a vote in the last few years. You might find that there are guys you never would have realized you'd like that you love. And vice-versa.
Welcome aboard!
Do you have links to these?
I'm pretty sure I know how to find Chones's and BPro's WARPs.
At a minimum, you'll want to look at everyone that has gotten a vote in the last few years
Where can I find this?
If you go to the important links link on the HOM home page, you can find all past results, etc.. I think that stuff is fairly well organized, but let us know if you have trouble.
DanR's WAR spreadsheet is posted in the files section of the Hall of Merit Yahoo Group (which you should join if you aren't already a memeber). The group is called "HallofMerit". Just go to groups.yahoo.com/group/HallofMerit . . .
I can't post my Pitcher Pennants Added there because the file is too big - I will check with Shock if he can set it up so I can host that and my DB based on Rosenheck's WARP (with some good queries built for ratings by position, MVPs; WWII Credit added, etc.).
I can email you the file though, assuming your email service can handle a 9 MB file.
I also think we got Fred McGriff about right. I have him in my top 25, but off-ballot. I think that McGriff's placement shows that we're not just throwing every newly eligible player into the HoM. We do have to confirm whether or not he's the best available first baseman, ahead of Perez and Taylor and Cash and Cepeda. And we do have time to confirm whether or not he's more meritorious than candidates from other positions.
Furthermore, McGriff's placement means that we will be electing at least one candidate out of the backlog in 2012. Next year brings a big four of Bagwell, Brown, Palmeiro and Walker. But 2012's most significant newcomer is Bernie Williams. That's a maximum of five players for six spots. So one of Cone, Cravath and Rizzuto will get their shot. And possibly all three if we can be convinced that those returnees are better than Bernie Williams (or the holdover from Brown, Palmeiro and Walker).
Joe, I think you're over-reacting to Edgar's election. It's not nearly as disheartening or discouraging as you seem to make it. I actually think it's a good thing.
I'm especially in line with his idea of using the worst regulars as replacement level. I've been brought over the side that adjusting for standard deviation is a good thing too. I don't see how one can consider the DH defensive contribution any more valuable than being a very bad defensive 1B.
And Edgar just doesn't stand out by that methodology. The same methodology that we used to elect Graig Nettles. So it's not like it's some renegade system.
Edgar was a great hitter. But that's all he was. I'm still seeing how he's significantly better than Bob Johnson when you put the whole package together.
It's not the end of the world, like I said, it's no worse than the Bill Terry selection.
But I still think a wait and see approach would have been better. There are too many if's, and it appears to me that too many flaws were overlooked. He didn't really get the grilling I expected.
Joe Dimino, no, I never saw any of your suggestions for position player WARP. But great minds think alike, I guess. :)
Can I just ask here that anyone who does not plan to have Larry Walker among their top four in 2011 offer their reasoning?
DanR's WAR spreadsheet is posted in the files section of the Hall of Merit Yahoo Group (which you should join if you aren't already a memeber). The group is called "HallofMerit". Just go to groups.yahoo.com/group/HallofMerit . . .
I can't post my Pitcher Pennants Added there because the file is too big - I will check with Shock if he can set it up so I can host that and my DB based on Rosenheck's WARP (with some good queries built for ratings by position, MVPs; WWII Credit added, etc.).
I can email you the file though, assuming your email service can handle a 9 MB file.
Thanks. You can try e-mailing it. Sometimes big files get through, sometimes they don't.
My WARP are also available from the link at the top of the "Dan Rosenheck's WARP Data" page dedicated to their discussion.
Thanks as well.
From New Eligibles Year by Year
896. DanG Posted: September 13, 2007 at 11:01 AM (#2523078)
Edgar was a great hitter. But that's all he was. I'm still not seeing how he's significantly better than Bob Johnson when you put the whole package together.
Joe, I and my system more or less agree with you and your system on this point. My system is based on Dan R's WAR, and it gives Edgar 122.7 points, and it gives Johnson 120.2 points, where the all-time in-out line for my personal HoM is about 120. Edgar is, by this measure, very much a borderline candidate. I think he should be in, and I think Bob Johnson should be in, but both are right on the border.
But that's my system, and your system. The HoM, as an aggregate of all the voters' systems, has been historically just a little bit more friendly to pure hitting candidates than I judge proper, mainly because the magnitude of fielding value remains harder to quantify than batting value, so a certain portion of the electorate has always kind of written it off when viewing a great hitter. Given this long-established tendency in HoM voting, it is obvious that, by the aggregate standards of the group, Edgar Martinez is qualified.
What I am trying to suggest is not that your position on Edgar is wrong, but that the argument you are making about him being "rushed in" is a mistaken diagnosis of the problem. The problem is not that Edgar was rushed in and should have had more vetting. The problem is that the HoM electorate is very slightly biased toward high-OPS+ bat candidates with weak defensive value. No amount of additional vetting of Edgar Martinez is going to alter that bias. If you want the next Edgar Martinez to get in line behind Phil Rizzuto, you'll have to make the case for fielding value. Making an individual case against "rushing in" a bat candidate with Edgar's credentials just won't work: the electorate in honoring Edgar is simply being consistent with its established standards. To change the outcomes, the standards of the electorate would need to be changed.
That said, I have a lot of respect for those of you who have put time and effort into this project. The HOM threads are truly a great resource.
> At a minimum, you'll want to look at everyone that has gotten a vote in the last few years
Where can I find this?
Snapper and others,
Except for the literally brilliant markup this table in Excel format simply gives the election scores for 2008 to 2010 (three columns, not three-score columns).
Here is the link for your file, which will be available for 7 Days.
url=http://www.yousendit.com/download/MVNkTXRld0E1aWJIRGc9PQ (HOM2008-2010.export.xls)
It covers 129 players.
Four points are missing from the 2009 results.
For detail results of all elections see "Hall of Merit" (2009 and 2008 annual results linked here); "Important Links"; "Hall of Merit Ballot, Discussion and Results Thread" (what it says, covering all elections).
Well, it's not literally all he was - he did play 500 games of third base.
I'm still seeing how he's significantly better than Bob Johnson when you put the whole package together.
Bob Johnson sits very high in the backlog. Edgar doesn't have to be significantly better, just a little better.
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