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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Thursday, December 29, 20112012 Results: Palmeiro… Reuschel… Cone… for the Hall of Merit!Slugging first baseman Rafael Palmeiro, in his second year of eligibility, was the top vote-getter this election by grabbing 70% of all possible points. NL hurler Rick Reuschel was number two this year with 49% after 17 years on a ballot, while Met and Yankee pitcher David Cone became the last inductee of 2012 with 44% in his sixth year of eligibility. Rounding out the top-ten were: Phil Rizzuto, Luis Tiant, Cannonball Dick Redding, Hugh Duffy, Gavvy Cravath (back in the top-ten!), Vic Willis and Sal Bando (I believe it’s the first time in the top-ten for the last two, but I’m too lazy to check to make sure :-). FWIW, Bernie Williams was the top newbie at #26. Thanks to OCF and Ron Wargo for their help once again with the ballot tally See you again same Bat-time next year! RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 4 Rafael Palmeiro 622 32 7 5 7 2 4 2 2 2 1 2 6 Rick Reuschel 441 25 6 4 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 5 David Cone 396 25 4 3 2 1 1 2 4 4 1 1 1 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 7 Phil Rizzuto 336 25 2 3 1 6 1 2 2 1 2 4 1 5 8 Luis Tiant 226 18 1 1 4 2 4 1 3 1 1 6 9 Cannonball Dick Redding 219 13 1 2 1 3 1 2 2 1 7 10 Hugh Duffy 215 14 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 8 11 Gavvy Cravath 211 16 1 2 1 3 1 1 1 2 4 9 14 Vic Willis 193 14 1 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 19T Sal Bando 193 13 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 12 Don Newcombe 189 13 1 1 1 1 4 2 1 2 12 17 Bobby Bonds 179 12 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 23 Tommy Leach 169 14 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 14T 27 Ben Taylor 164 12 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 14T 13 Bucky Walters 164 12 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 16 21 Ed Williamson 140 8 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 17T 22 Burleigh Grimes 126 9 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 17T 55T Hilton Smith 126 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 19 24 Bus Clarkson 126 8 2 1 1 2 1 1 20 15 Fred McGriff 124 10 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 21 19T Tommy Bridges 124 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 22 29 Johnny Pesky 119 9 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 23 26 Dizzy Dean 109 8 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 24 30 Buddy Bell 101 8 1 1 2 1 2 1 25 18 Bob Johnson 94 8 1 1 3 1 1 1 26 n/e Bernie Williams 87 10 1 1 1 1 3 3 27 50 Frank Chance 87 7 1 1 1 1 1 2 28 38 Bert Campaneris 81 5 1 2 1 1 29T 36 Bill Monroe 80 6 1 1 1 2 1 29T 25 Tony Perez 80 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 31 31 Bob Elliott 77 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 32 35 Tommy John 75 5 1 1 3 33 16 Kirby Puckett 73 8 1 2 1 3 1 34 28 Mickey Welch 70 5 2 2 1 35 32 Albert Belle 69 5 1 1 1 1 1 36 34 Pie Traynor 67 6 1 1 2 1 1 37 44 Dave Concepción 66 7 1 1 1 1 1 2 38 46T Kevin Appier 66 6 2 1 1 1 1 39 39 John Olerud 62 5 1 2 2 40T 40 Norm Cash 59 5 1 2 1 1 40T 45 Dwight Gooden 59 5 2 1 1 1 42T 60 Lee Smith 55 4 1 1 1 1 42T 48 Urban Shocker 55 4 1 1 1 1 44 n/e Dolph Luque 55 3 1 1 1 45 41 Vern Stephens 53 4 1 1 1 1 46 51 Babe Adams 52 3 1 1 1 47 33 Elston Howard 51 4 1 1 1 1 48T 43 Addie Joss 50 3 1 1 1 48T 79T Jim McCormick 50 3 1 1 1 50 55T Ed Cicotte 47 4 1 1 1 1 51T n/e Carlos Moran 43 3 1 1 1 51T 67 Thurman Munson 43 3 1 1 1 53 52 Dale Murphy 41 3 1 1 1 54 n/e Tommy Bond 39 3 1 1 1 55 68 Lou Brock 37 3 1 1 1 56 49 Wally Schang 37 2 1 1 57 58T Dave Bancroft 36 4 1 1 1 1 58 62 Jim Rice 36 3 1 1 1 59 46T Carl Mays 33 3 1 1 1 60 64T Jack Quinn 33 2 1 1 61 74T Ron Cey 29 2 1 1 62 58T Ernie Lombardi 26 2 1 1 63 55T Al Rosen 25 2 1 1 64 n/e Orel Hershiser 24 3 1 2 65T 63 Sam Rice 24 2 1 1 65T 70T Bruce Sutter 24 2 1 1 67 42 Fred Dunlap 24 1 1 68 61 Frank Tanana 23 2 1 1 69T 69 Larry Doyle 22 2 1 1 69T 85T Lefty Gomez 22 2 1 1 69T 79T Gene Tenace 22 2 1 1 72 76 Rabbit Maranville 21 2 1 1 73T n/e Willie Davis 20 2 2 73T 70T Tony Mullane 20 2 1 1 75 n/e Cesar Cedeno 19 2 1 1 76 64T Luke Easter 18 2 1 1 77 64T Chuck Klein 15 2 1 1 78 83T Luis Aparicio 14 1 1 79 82 Rusty Staub 13 2 1 1 80 53 Ken Singleton 13 1 1 81T 77T Sam Leever 11 1 1 81T 89T Dave Parker 11 1 1 81T 85T Deacon Phillipe 11 1 1 84T n/e Ray Dandridge 9 1 1 84T 98T Elmer Smith 9 1 1 84T 54 Don Mattingly 9 1 1 84T n/e Tom York 9 1 1 88T n/e Frank Howard 8 1 1 88T 37 George Van Haltren 8 1 1 90T n/e Orlando Cepeda 7 1 1 90T n/e Charlie Hough 7 1 1 90T n/e Billy Nash 7 1 1 90T 94T Joe Tinker 7 1 1 94T n/e Jim Fregosi 6 1 1 94T 74T Tony Oliva 6 1 1 94T n/e Dan Qisenberry 6 1 1 Dropped Out: George J. Burns(85T), Jack Clark(77T), Johnny Evers(73), Fielder Jones(94T), Mike Griffin(83T), Hack Wilson(79T), Jim Kaat(89T), George Kell(85T), Harvey Kuenn(98T), Tony Lazzeri(94T), Bill Madlock(89T), Bill Mazeroski(98T), Al Oliver(94T), Lance Parrish(89T), Mike Tiernan(72), Will White(89T). Ballots Cast: 37
John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy
Posted: December 29, 2011 at 02:08 AM | 70 comment(s)
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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 29, 2011 at 02:54 AM (#4024827)And thanks, as always, for running this project, guys.
Heh. I had been notified of that error earlier, but I guess I forgot to edit it. Thanks for pointing it out!
The "consensus" is all over the place once you get past 4th place. 18 candidates with a 1st place vote. Below 4th place nobody was on more than half the ballots. Rizzuto has clear support ahead of the rest of the field but he's going to have to wait quite a while.
It is fun when three guys I voted for make it.
Falling - Kirby Puckett
electees are not in caps
I think it was Ron W originally doing these; Rick A now fixes my mistakes
Van Haltren only got one vote this time; I believe he led Duffy for a number of years back in the day
Ryan, a compatriot, again gets no votes and remains 17th all-time
The 1st change of order comes at 30th, grabbed by Bob Johnson over electee Harry Stovey
the rest of the top 50 is unchanged, but Redding could grab 6th from Childs next year and Leach could claim 11th from Charley Jones
Willis will take Keller out of the top 50 next year
TOP 50, ALL-TIME, unofficial (pts this year)
DUFFY...... 27613.5 (215)
VAN HALTREN 26913.5 (8)
Beckley.... 25856
Browning... 24502.5
WELCH...... 18683 (70)
Childs..... 18484
REDDING.... 18349 (219)
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
Jennings... 16976
CJones..... 15875
TLEACH..... 15829 (169)
Bresnahan.. 14965
Sisler..... 13892
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
RYAN....... 12663.5X
Mendez..... 12555
Thompson... 12349
CRAVATH.....12275 (211)
Roush...... 12005
WALTERS.....11797 (164)
Bennett.... 11503
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
Beckwith.... 9896
DOYLE....... 9816 (22)
GRIMES.......9739 (126)
BJOHNSON.....9623 (94)
HStovey......9576
Mackey.......8930
AOms.........8385
Start........8378.5
McGinnity....8232
McGraw.......8145
DPearce......8073
McVey........7985.5
FGrant.......7969.5
BMONROE......7941 (80)
Kiner........7746
Suttles......7690
NFox.........7587
Trouppe......7494
WFerrell.....7259
CBell........6968
SCHANG.......6874 (37)
WILLIAMSON...6820 (140)
Galvin.......6585
Keller.......6424
Others in active top 50
Willis 6344, DDean 5923, Elliott 5195, Bridges 5024, Rizzuto 4902, Joss 4810, BTaylor 4668, TPerez 4297, Tiant 3886, FChance 3842, Traynor 3783, NCash 3751, CMays 3746, Cepeda 3456, SRice 3301, Cicotte 3286, McCormick 3269, LBrock 3157, BoBonds 2909, EHoward 2890, Tiernan 2709X, Singleton 2703, FJones 2636X, Klein 2601, VStephens 2576, BClarkson 2527, Puckett 2459, Staub 2396, Veach 2388X, GJBurns 2388X, Mullane 2348, Dunlap 2283, Lombardi 2241, Concepcion 2098, Bancroft 2083, Poles 1842X
(Newcombe 1774)
WOW.
I know it's a backlog ballot, but even so 18 out of 37 voters still surprises me!
I know there had been discussion (I think last year) about 3 or 4 electees. Was the decision to stick with 3 and maybe down the road maybe have an elect 4 year(s)? Or was it decided to stick with elect 3 on a go forward basis?
Next year is an elect 3? I know there had been a plan to go to elect 4 at one point, but I guess that's been scrapped?
If it's three, I assume Bonds and Clemens sail in, and probably Piazza as well. Schilling, Sosa and Biggio would slot in ahead of Rizzuto too, I'd think, but I don't see one of them getting elected unless one of the top three get really hurt by boycotts. And for Rizzuto to have even the slimmest of chances, the boycotts would have to be extreme and applied to Bonds, Clemens, Piazza and Sosa in pretty much equal measure. I really don't see that happening.
As for the guys after Rizzuto, by the time there's another backlog election the electorate will probably have had enough turnover that their current support won't really mean anything.
Congrats to fans of Palmeiro (do they exist?), Cone and Reuschel.
I'm guessing Bonds, Clemens and Piazza next year (that's my top 3). There are 3-5 guys who meet the standard every year for the next few years. Even Palmeiro got lucky with his timing.
2013: Bonds, Clemens and Piazza are locks, the only thing that could delay any of them is a one-year boycott, and that would just shift things to the second tier of Biggio, Schilling and Sosa. The only other players I could see getting any significant number of votes are Kenny Lofon and David Wells, but I think they'll fall down into the lower backlog somewhere. Maybe Steve Finley gets a vote, but I don't see any one else drawing even one.
2014: Maddux, Frank Thomas, and Glavine are shoo-ins, unless somehow one of the top three from '13 slips to this year on the strength of a boycott, which might make things interesting. Jeff Kent and Mike Mussina might join the high backlog, but I don't see them as quite as strong as the second tier guys from '13. I guess Luis Gonzalez could get some votes, but I don't see him or Moises Alou as serious candidates.
2015: The Big Unit and Pedro for sure. Smoltz will go in as well eventually, I'm sure, but I don't know if he makes it this year, or falls to one of the hold-overs from '13. It would be interesting if he did go in (or if Schilling was the one to pass him, I guess), because that would have 3 pitchers going into the HoM in the same year. Has that happened before? I'm sure Sheffield, and I guess Nomar and Carlos Delgado as well, will get some support from this class too.
2016: This is actually sort of a backlog year. The only slam-dunk I see is Junior. I mean, the best candidates after him are Pettitte, Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner, and... Jason Kendall? Heh. Pettitte I think has a decent chance of being elected, but probably not this year. And the relievers... well, relievers are weird, but (without doing any in-depth analysis so far) I like Lee Smith better than both of these guys, and he wasn't in my top 20 in a backlog year (and finished #42). But I suspect recent guys would go in ahead of Rizzuto, so probably something like Junior, Biggio, and Smoltz, with Sosa being elected in '15?
2017: I'm not sure. This would be based on who retires this off-season, right? Manny Ramierez would be this year if his underetirement doesn't result in him catching on with a team in 2012, but he'd catch some boycotts for sure. I'm blanking on who else might be retiring after this past season.
Guesses at my PHoM picks:
2013 - Bonds, Clemens, Piazza
2014 - Maddux, Thomas, Glavine
2015 - Johnson, Martinez, Smoltz
2016 - Griffey, Schilling, Mussina
2017 - Biggio, Kent, ??? : Edmonds, Sosa, Manny and Sheffield will have to slug it out
I'm not quite sure I picked the right 2011 ballot tally document - did we really have only 27 voters in 2011?
The average consensus score this year was -14.6. Which is low, but we've had lower: -18.0 in 2006, -19.0 in 1996. -20.4 in 1997. The thing is, this wasn't quite totally a backlog election, since by the definitions I would use, Palmiero was a frontlogger - a candidate whose totals never fell below anyone who was on the ballot before him. He may have been our least enthusiastically supported frontlogger ever, but a frontlogger he was. Still, it wasn't easy to be a contrarian, because what was there to disagree with? The highest possible consensus score would have been +5. Some actual consensus scores:
Bleed the Freak: -4
Mike Webber: -5
Dan R.: -6
Brent: -7
DL from MN: -8
Devin: -8
...
Joe Dimino: -11
OCF: -11
...
Yardape: -14 (median)
...
John Murphy: -19
...
Rob Wood: -22
Daryn: -23
bjhanke: -25
sunnyday2: -27
karlmagnus: -29
The new, near-new, or returned from long ago voters mostly had moderately high consensus scores: Carl Goetz -9, Alex King -10, theorioleway -10, Archimedes Pozo -15, Nate the Neptunian -17, Ardo -18.
Makes me wish I managed to (finally) get a semblance of a system up so that I could have voted in this backlog election.
Not that it would have changed anything except help some faves of mine like Luke Easter and George Van Haltren.
But they're so far down it's not like anything would have changed.
Still kinda wish I had, though!
Yeah, true. I must have been distracted by the fact that BR lists Johan Santana as a candidate for '16. I don't think that's happening. Anyway, I don't see Edmonds as beating out the high backlog guys like Biggio, Smoltz, Sosa, et al, much less Griffey, so I don't think he's going to be elected in '16, but he's better than the other guys I listed for that year. Actually, looking at rWAR, it really loves him. He ranks ahead of both Smoltz and Sosa, among others, in it. Maybe he's a more serious candidate than I thought. I haven't run him through my system yet, so I don't know how I feel about that.
I also left out Brian Giles for '15, who might get some peak support. I happened to glance back at the beginning of the '12 discussion thread and noticed Dan R likes him in his system.
The fact that the Hall of Fame is clamping down does not impact us.
Our goal was to match the size of the Hall of Fame when. We started. The fact that we may elect more (or less) is actually a good way to point out that they are getting to tough or too lax. We matched them for 65 years. If we get out of sync with them while using the same system, it points out how they are bei g u fair to the recent players if they don't keep up.
Rizzuto, or someone else, will probably get in eventually, but it's going to be quite awhile if we stick to elect 3.
'16 looks like it only has two serious candidates (Griffey and Edmonds... well, and maybe Pettitte, but I'm lukewarm on him at best), and '17 might be Manny only (or not even him), but I think the slots those years will go to recent high backlog players. Then 2018 might be... Thome and Chipper Jones? Then '19 would be... Jeter? Todd Helton? Ichiro? Bobby Abreu? Johnny Damon? I guess some of those might play through '14, which would push them back to '20. '20 might be Vlad Guerrero as well as some of the previous names. (Oddly I don't see much in the way of pitching candidates in these years.) This is getting really speculative, so I'll stop there.
I think there are years where there won't be 3 slam-dunk candidates, but the problem is '13 adds at least six serious candidates, '14 five, and '15 four. After those three years are in the books, that's going to be six guys for the high backlog (and probably some other lower backloggers, who still might edge out some of the older candidates), who'll then eat up the extra slot or two in '16, and the two or three backlog slots in '17. If then '18 and '19 result in a number of good candidates (and it looks like they probably will), then yeah, it could be another ten years before we elect a fossil (by which I guess I mean guys who started prior to WWII). If that's the case, then the last one to be elected for awhile would be... McGraw in '09. Kinda funny it was a guy who sat way down in the backlog for ever without much support, before beginning a big rise over a couple of years, rather than a guy who hung around the fringes of the top ten for a long time, like Van Haltren or Duffy.
ETA: I wrote the above before I saw Joe's #19. I'm fine with going to elect 4 for some years. I think the BBWAA is too hard on modern candidates, whether it's because of the steroids issue (McGwire, Bagwell) or because they just can't figure out the guy was great (Trammell, Martinez, etc). And when they do elect someone, it's often clearly not the best guy on the ballot. I mean, I was one of the few who voted for Rice this year for the HoM, so I kind of like him, but there's no way he was the best guy on the HoF ballot the year he went in. The same with Dawson, really. Anyway, there's at least 8 guys on this year's HoF ballot that I think clearly belong, and a couple more borderline guys. And it's just going to get worse over the next few years. I think being too stingy in their elections is the biggest problem with the HoF right now (it's not helped that the VC basically punted for a few years, before finally electing Santo this year), so I'm not too concerned with exactly matching their numbers.
I was planning on doing that Monday and leaving it open for a week. We would then have the results ready a couple of days before the actual election in Cooperstown.
If Piazza doesn't get in next year, there's something wrong, IMO. Inner-circle all the way.
You're not being a pain. It needs to be right. OCF pointed it out to me last night, too.
My ballot counter has to differentiate between all of the Rices on the ballot, so I had to type "J. Rice" and "S. Rice" to do that. However, it's so easy to just type "Rice" by mistake instead. It appears that was the case here.
If we do that, I hope it's not just thrown in willy nilly. It should only be used if there's a clear-cut, no ifs, ands or buts inner-circle candidate who would be left off during a three-man election, IMO.
Still would rather stay synchronized with the HOF, but I know I'm in the minority there.
Thanks for conceiving the HoM, Joe! :-)
Hmmmm... as a HoM observer glancing over the list my initial thought was 'Reuschel, but Gooden way down the list'? For some reason -- even though you probably couldn't find two more different pitchers stylistically -- I had always thought of them as having similar cases... but a closer look shows that's clearly not the case.
Question for the group - if you give Gooden another 700 IP (giving him roughly the same number as Reuschel) of ~100 ERA+ ball, does he get more support? He's still an inferior career candidate to Reuschel, but if I were a voter, I think that early peak would equalize things for me.
I also think the peak voters need to starting touting Albert Belle more...
Pudge, Posada and Rivera are going to retire some day.
C'mon John, give me a little credit :-)
It wouldn't be willy nilly. It would definitely be systematic, and it would definitely not be to add an extra guy in a big year.
We were supposed to go to four a year or two ago, but we missed it. If you go back to the thread where we talk about how many will be elected each year, it's very clear.
It's all based on a formula that looks at the number of teams, projects that out X years (I want to say 12?), etc..
And the fact that we missed that "4" year, and that we have one backlog candidate who is way ahead of the rest is pretty decent evidence that we are right on track, aside from that, in terms of the number we have in.
I need to find that thread . . . but kind of busy right now. But I'm pretty sure 2013 will be an elect 4 year to make up for the missing elect 4 year (not that that will help Rizzuto any in the near future) and then we'll get back on the schedule set there.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/number_of_electees_by_year
Last year should have been elect 4. Can't believe we missed that, but it's easy to forget things that were decided 8 years ago.
Here's the post I wrote once we remembered that we missed one. And then I completely forgot about it again . . . I need to make notes or something. My sincerest apologies here . . . between moving 2x since March 2010, and having a baby and a new job where I travel a lot, things have just been too crazy in real life.
We're getting requests to run the mock HoF ballot. Can you make that happen first?
I was planning on doing that Monday and leaving it open for a week. We would then have the results ready a couple of days before the actual election in Cooperstown.
Thanks for this update, I'm looking forward to it! And thanks to DL from MN for getting this info for us!
1) YES network
2) Posnaski follows the Hall of Merit
Again - in light of John's concerns about electing extra people. We can absolutely add one more next year, as Joe has indicated that we missed one. Alternatively, if we no longer need concern ourselves with the HOF (at least quantitatively) we can discuss a method of determining extra inductees based on the voting pool - ie. through a threshold of votes.
Any choice would be arbitrary - and this system was designed to get away from that. i.e. - what makes 75% 'valid' as opposed to 70%, 50% or 90%. We decided long ago that we should be electing a few players every year.
We are concerned with maintaining the standard (per team season) that was established by the Hall of Fame from 1935-2001 (before they made a mess of the Veteran's Committee), plus the extra Negro League players that were inducted in 2006.
Doing that is pretty simple.
First determine what to credit as a 'team-season' - i.e. we aren't giving the 1884 UA full credit.
Next determine the appropriate 'lag' time - i.e. 30 teams in 2011 doesn't mean that should be the basis for the 2012 election. Those 2011 players aren't eligible for awhile.
From there, it's just a math problem. In the first go round, we were VERY conservative in what we credited for the early years, due to the uncertainty involved - we didn't know nearly as much about those guys at the time as we do now.
I didn't know (or remember :-) that you had posted something about this, Joe. Based on that prior post of yours, your plan looks systematic and definitely not willy nilly.
I don't have a problem with this, but Joe is the last word on that subject.
Makes sense to me.
That's been the case for a while now, at least since Nettles jumped onto the stage from outside of the top ten. Even McGraw had a meteoric rise at the end, passing perennial top ten candidates like Duffy, Redding, Walters and Johnson.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/2011_hall_of_merit_ballot/P100/
Ron mentions electing 4 players
It is because I haven't voted for my favorite player yet, isn't it.
You make a good point, Alex.
and also McGwire and Palmeiro, who while not actually ineligible, have been excluded because the BBWAA treats steroid cases radically differently from how we do
The reason I disagree is that we don't yet have the last word on how the BBWAA will treat steroid cases. Right now, their electorate is allowed to express freely its opinion about 'cheaters' in a way we are not. However, this might change over the course of the next decade in ways we cannot foresee. It's too soon to tell. So, we are two ahead of the Hall of Fame, pending their current ballot results.
Also, I would be very disappointed if some ex post facto provision is allowed to induct Rizzuto, even though I much prefer him to Cone. If we made a mistake, we should have sorted it out before the results were announced. It is a bad precedent.
It wouldn't really change anything, other than Rizzuto (whom I don't support, FWIW) would be added to the HoM with the other three. It's not like it's six months later, either.
Steven Goldman (BP) has promised to pass it on.
I checked that already. There would be some very minor changes. Redding would go ahead of Tiant and Bonds would go ahead of Newcombe. Willis would gain the most points but still be behind Cravath. But there would be no change in the order of the first four.
But in this case, I'm pretty much with what karlmagnus said: leave the result alone for now.
As for Cone: it's a close call, but I'd be inclined to call him a Yankee. Reuschel would be a Cub and Palmiero a Ranger.
rWAR as a Yankee: 18.6.
rWAR as a Met: 18.6.
Ridiculous. And he was actually at his best in the clump when he was with Toronto and KC.
:)
Regarding the elect 4 thing and retroactively changing this election . . . I'm kind of torn. I don't want it to seem like we are jury-rigging it to get him in. It just seems kind of slipshod to me at first glance. But I could be convinced otherwise I suppose.
So if we could re-work the numbers to show that we should have elected another player this year, I suppose it'd be OK, assuming we also un-elect someone if it shows we are over - see the rub? I don't know if I want to open that can of worms.
It's probably better to just recalculate and then see where we land, applying any changes going forward, adjusting by no more than one per year (i.e. if we are off by say 2 spots, we'd adjust the 2013 and 2014 elections).
Thoughts?
It doesn't matter to me at all, but if you support Rizzuto...
Cone was 6% better as a Yankee in ERA+, but had 31% more innings as a Met. Therefore... :-)
As for Reuschel and Palmeiro, you have them right, OCF.
Heh. :-D
I don't see it as a bother. I see it as an extra project, and something to do!
The idea being that if we are behind, it's not fair to the current candidates to put it off a year - someone who was eligible before 2013 should get the 'catch-up' spot(s). I would still put that player in the class of 2012 though, for historic purposes.
OK . . . so first we need to come to consensus the assumptions for the calculation of where we should be right now. I assume a separate thread would be good for this.
Give Gooden 700 IP at 100 ERA+ (or the equivalent after accounting for team defense) and he'd be pretty high up my ballot. He's close as it is. But his peak was short and his career wasn't long enough. If you like Gooden, you have to like Bucky Walters. They are basically the same value case. Take 3-4 more league average seasons onto their careers and you are talking Palmer, Bunning, Reuschel. That's that difference.
I thought I'd like him more, but really he's Ralph Kiner, light by about 2 seasons. I only voted Kiner 15th the year he was elected. The career just wasn't long enough, and the peak is a little overrated once you throw in defense and adjust for era.
- Is there a case that Clemens was more meritorious than Bonds?
- Who's third - Biggio or Piazza? (Remember Biggio was not a career 2B; he debuted as a catcher.)
- And, most importantly, how do we rank the other newly eligible players? Everyone needs to carefully consider Schilling, Sosa, Lofton, and Boomer Wells relative to the backlog. (Steve Finley and Julio Franco are interesting but seem to be Very Good types.)
You were right the 1st time.
I think we elect 3 this year. We have elected 3 how many years? A change should have been crystal clear to everybody and it wasn't. I say this as a Rizzuto supporter. And I'm with Joe, no way we say "3 or 4 depending on the results." It's either 3 or it's 4 and it's clearly established before the voting.
Personally I would stay with 3 and I would rather not get too much out of step with the chicken Coop.
And I voted for Belle (pretty high up my ballot) but there's no use "touting" anybody if you're not a number cruncher. Qualitative arguments like WWII credit and racial quotas and how the 19th century game was different (if not strictly measurable), all of that is declining in interest to the electorate, I think. I mean, yeah, Rizzuto gets WWII credit and he almost made it, but isn't that the point? Almost and now 10 years? I also agree that changes in future electorates will render any "history" moot. Luke Easter? Who's he? Ed Williamson? Well, hell, those 27 HR were cheap! MLEs? What's that?
Sorry. I'm finished whining now.
Agreed, but consider the following:
2013 - Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Schilling, Biggio
2014 - Maddux, Thomas, Mussina, Glavine
2015 - Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz
2016 - Griffey
2017 - Ramirez, I-Rod
2018 - Chipper
That leaves Edmonds, Guerrero, Kent, Sheffield and Sosa (among others) to duke it out with the best of the 2012 backlog.
But looking ahead? In the 3-5 years after 2018 we'll probably see Jeter, Mo, Thome, Rolen and A-Rod, but those are about the only shoo-ins. The bulk of the other potential retirees for those years (2013-2018) are largely A-/B+ type candidates who will slot in AMONGST our backlog and not necessarily AHEAD of it. Guys like Abreu, Beltre, Beltran, Ichiro, Hudson, etc.
Point being, fear not!. In spite of the historic glut of worthies Cooperstown will face over the next several elections - and which we will no doubt better parse - our backlog will have plenty of chances just as soon as that bubble subsidizes. No different than any other temporary spike in "no brainer" candidates the HOM has had in elections past.
All the more reason to work on sorting that backlog out while their election isn't riding on such decisions.
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