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Wednesday, December 12, 2012

2013 Results: Bonds, Clemens, Piazza and Biggio are elected to the Hall of Merit!

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio have been elected to the Hall of Merit!

The timing for our first year electing 4 candidates could not have worked out better, since class of 2013 is the strongest in terms of electees that we’ve ever had. The top of the 1934 ballot included Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Eddie Collins, Pop Lloyd, Smokey Joe Williams and Cristobal Torriente, but only 2 were elected.

Bonds and Clemens were each unanimous at 1 and 2. I believe that’s the first time since Babe Ruth and Rogers Hornsby in 1941, but I could be forgetting one.

Piazza received 30 of 34 3rd place votes and Biggio was 4-5 on 25 of the 34 ballots and 3rd on two others.

Curt Schilling picked up the other two 3rd place votes and 22 total top 5 votes and appears to be a lock for election by 2016, possibly sooner. Sammy Sosa also polled a strong 6th which should see him inducted by 2017.

Kenny Lofton was the only other new candidate to get a vote, finishing 15th. He was just behind Hugh Duffy and ahead of Bucky Walters. Lofton was named on 10 ballots.

Amongst the backloggers Vic Willis moved from 6th to first - an average returnee would have lost 3-4 places this election, yet Willis actually moved up 2 spots.

Phil Rizzuto is still a strong second in the backlog and Ben Taylor improved from a tie for 14th all the way to 9th, gaining 7-8 places on the field. The race should be tight when we finally elect a long-term backlogger again in 2017. The last ballot nudged Dick Redding ahead of Gavy Cravath for 10th place.

Buddy Bell has cracked into the core group of about 15 reasonably strong candidates (he finished 17th), replacing Sal Bando who fell from 10th to 23rd.

The consensus at the top, the net loss of 3 voters, and strong class of new candidates (the average voter had to drop 3 players from his ballot to make room for the new class) caused 22 players to drop off the ballot. I cannot remember a number that large.

RK  LY  Player                   PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1  n/e  Barry Bonds              816   34  34                                         
2  n/e  Roger Clemens            782   34     34                                       
3  n/e  Mike Piazza              732   34        30  2     2                          
4  n/e  Craig Biggio             620   34         2 16  9  3  3              1        
5  n/e  Curt Schilling           499   30         2 10 10  1  2  1     1              3
6  n/e  Sammy Sosa               308   26               4  1  4  2  3  2  6  1     2  1
7    9  Vic Willis               160   14               1        5  3  1  1  1     1  1
8    4  Phil Rizzuto             155   14                  1  3  1  1  4        2  1  1
9   14T Ben Taylor               139   12            1        1  2  2  1  1  2  1  1  
10   6  Cannonball Dick Redding  122   10               1  2  3  1              1  1  1
11   8  Gavy Cravath             120   12                  1        2  2  2  2  1  1  1
12   5  Luis Tiant               111   12                        2        3  3  2     2
13  12  Bobby Bonds              106    8            1           3  2  2              
14   7  Hugh Duffy               104    8            1     2     1  1  1     1  1     
15 n/e  Kenny Lofton             103   10                  1  1        4     1  1  1  1
16  14T Bucky Walters             93    7               1  2     3              1      
17  24  Buddy Bell                92    9               1  1           1  1  2  1  2  
18  13  Tommy Leach               88    8            1     1     1  1        1        3
19  16  Ned Williamson            87    7               1     1  1  1  2  1           
20  11  Don Newcombe              85    8                  1        2  1  2     1  1  
21  20  Fred McGriff              81    8               1  1           1     2  1  1  1
22  17T Hilton Smith              74    6               1  2           1  1        1  
23  10  Sal Bando                 73    6                  2  1     1     1        1  
24T 21  Tommy Bridges             72    6               1  1  1        1     1     1  
24T 19  Bus Clarkson              72    6                  2     1     1  1     1     
26  17T Burleigh Grimes           70    6            1  1           1           1  1  1
27  22  Johnny Pesky              69    7                  1     1  1           1  3  
28  28  Bert Campaneris           68    6               1  1     1           1  1  1  
29  25  Bob Johnson               56    6                     1  1           1  1     2
30  32  Tommy John                55    5                     1  1  1           2     
31  38  Kevin Appier              50    6                           1     1  1     1  2
32  34  Mickey Welch              49    5                           1     2  1  1     
33  29T Tony Perez                45    5                     1     1              1  2
34  42T Urban Shocker             40    3                     2     1                 
35  37  Dave Concepcion           39    5                              1  1           3
36  42T Lee Smith                 39    4                     1           1     1  1  
37  35  Albert Belle              38    4                     1              2        1
38  33  Kirby Puckett             36    4                           1        1  1  1  
39  39  John Olerud               34    4                              1        2  1  
40  47  Elston Howard             33    3                        2                 1  
41T 23  Dizzy Dean                32    3                  1              1        1  
41T 31  Bob Elliott               32    3                           1  1     1        
41T 59  Carl Mays                 32    3                        2                    1
41T 48T Jim McCormick             32    3               1                       2     
45  48T Addie Joss                32    2            1                 1              
46  36  Pie Traynor               29    3                              2           1  
47  50  Ed Cicotte                29    2                  1  1                       
48  40T Norm Cash                 28    3                           1        1     1  
49  46  Babe Adams                28    2                     2                       
50  45  Vern Stephens             27    3                           1           1  1  
51  44  Dolf Luque                27    2                  1        1                 
52T 57  Dave Bancroft             24    2                  1                 1        
52T 56  Wally Schang              24    2                     1           1           
54T 54  Tommy Bond                21    2                     1                    1  
54T 40T Dwight Gooden             21    2                           1        1        
56T 27  Frank Chance              20    2                              1     1         
56T 58  Jim Rice                  20    2                           1           1     
56T 80  Ken Singleton             20    2                           1           1     
59T 55  Lou Brock                 19    2                        1                    1
59T 53  Dale Murphy               19    2                                 1  1        
59T 63  Al Rosen                  19    2                                 1  1        
62  26  Bernie Williams           18    2                                 1     1     
63  41T Carlos Moran              17    2                                    1  1     
64T --  Chuck Finley              16    2                                 1           1
64T 73T Tony Mullane              16    2                                 1           1
66  67  Fred Dunlap               15    1                  1                          
67T 60  Jack Quinn                14    1                     1                       
67T 68  Frank Tanana              14    1                     1                       
69  62  Ernie Lombardi            13    1                        1                     
70  69T Lefty Gomez               11    1                              1              
71T 78  Luis Aparicio             10    1                                 1           
71T 76  Luke Easter               10    1                                 1           
73  65T Bruce Sutter               9    1                                    1        
74T 61  Ron Cey                    8    1                                       1     
74T --  Roy White                  8    1                                       1     
76T 81T Sam Leever                 7    1                                          1  
76T 81T Dave Parker                7    1                                          1  
76T 69T Gene Tenace                7    1                                          1  
79T --  Mark Belanger              6    1                                             1
79T 64  Orel Hershiser             6    1                                             1
79T 29T Bill Monroe                6    1                                             1
79T --  Jim Sundberg               6    1                                             1
Dropped Out: Thurman Munson(41T), Sam Rice(65T), Larry Doyle(69T), Rabbit Maranville(72),
Willie Davis(73T), Cesar Cedeno(75), Chuck Klein(77), Rusty Staub(79), Deacon Phillippe(81T),
Ray Dandridge(84T), Don Mattingly(84T), Elmer Smith(84T), Tom York(84T), Frank Howard(88T),
George Van Haltren(88T), Orlando Cepeda(90T), Charlie Hough(90T), Billy Nash(90T),
Joe Tinker(90T), Jim Fregosi(94T), Tony Oliva(94T), Dan Quisenberry(94T).
Ballots Cast: 34


JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 12, 2012 at 09:14 PM | 67 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 12, 2012 at 09:49 PM (#4323535)
Big thanks to all of the voters . . . we are actually 4 ahead of where we were at this point last year, when we decided to extend the election. I'm glad we didn't have to do that this year, breaking a terrible trend; and we only lost 3 voters and it had no impact on the final result.

Also bigger thanks to OCF and Ron W. for tallying the ballots. Seeing how long it took me to add one ballot to the final tally gives me an appreciation for the time-consuming work that is.

Congrats to the electees as well! Has anyone volunteered to write the plaques?
   2. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 12, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4323537)
It's pretty funny seeing Piazza and Clemens next to each other. That would be an interesting dynamic on the dais if we could get them to show up for our ceremony :-)
   3. DL from MN Posted: December 12, 2012 at 10:20 PM (#4323550)
Interesting seeing Kenny Lofton right next to Hugh Duffy too.
   4. DL from MN Posted: December 12, 2012 at 10:24 PM (#4323558)
Good seeing Ben Taylor on the rise. Several people mentioned they would reconsider his candidacy in the upcoming year. He may top the backlog soon.
   5. OCF Posted: December 12, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4323563)
I'm in the middle of grading finals, so give me a few days to come up with the consensus scores (they need a small elect-4 adjustment). I will say that they're all high, and the range is narrow.

Here's a question (which I could probably answer myself but it would take time): how many players have ever been unanimously second on an HoM ballot? Clemens was that this year. Previously, I know of Hornsby (behind Ruth) and Frank Robinson (behind Aaron). Any others?
   6. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 12, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4323576)
Here's a question (which I could probably answer myself but it would take time): how many players have ever been unanimously second on an HoM ballot? Clemens was that this year. Previously, I know of Hornsby (behind Ruth) and Frank Robinson (behind Aaron). Any others?

You are correct OCF!

Frank Robinson is correct from 1982 - all 56 2nd place votes (nice voter turnout!)
Eddie Mathews just missed in 1974 - 51 of 52 2nd place and a 4th. - yest preferred George Sisler and Pie Traynor.
Yogi Berra was close in 1969 - 45 2nd place and 3 3rd place.
Mel Ott was close in 1952 -1 1st and 1 5th, with 48 2nd place. - yest had Ott 1st and Josh Gibson 4th!...and Gadfly had him 5th (Gibson, Cravath, Beckwith, and Redding)
Rogers Hornsby is correct from 1941 - all 53 votes

Hat tip to Patrick W for putting together a fantastic Excel spreadsheet after the Hall of Merit caught up to the realtime vote in 2008.
Patrick uploaded the document to the Hall of Merit Yahoo Group.

Some other interesting notes from the file:
Elections with players who remain unelected but finished first among the backlog:

George Van Haltren finished 3rd in 1932, 62 points behind Rube Foster (HOM has since elected Griffith, Pike, Beckley, Jennings, Waddell, Bresnahan, Childs, Browning, Mendez, CJones, and Moore)

Dick Redding finished 4th in 1998, 8 points behind Jake Beckley (HOM has since elected Randolph, Browning, Fingers, Bresnahan, CJones, Stieb, Oms, Nettles, and Lundy)

Bob Johnson finished 4th in 2005, 4 points behind Andre Dawson (HOM has since elected Oms, Saberhagen, Nettles, and Lundy).
   7. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 12, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4323582)
   8. Howie Menckel Posted: December 12, 2012 at 11:25 PM (#4323583)

ronw or RickA likely will fix the occasional mistakes, and thanks for that


all-time 'votes points' thru 2013 - those still eligible in 2014 election are in CAPS
electees are not in caps

George Van Haltren's century-old constituency couldn't survive this influx; like longtime competition Jimmy Ryan, relegated to the dustbin of history except for this list, I suspect.
Redding fading, but knocking on Cupid Childs' door for 6th and has a shot to catch Mickey Welch as the all-time pitching holdover. For the lesser actives on here, a deadly 4-5 year period; any votes at all will be welcomed.

TOP 50, ALL-TIME, unofficial (pts this year)
DUFFY...... 27717.5 (104)
VAN HALTREN 26913.5 (x)
Beckley.... 25856
Browning... 24502.5
WELCH...... 18732 (49)
Childs..... 18484
REDDING.... 18471 (122)
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
Jennings... 16976

TLEACH..... 15917 (88)
Bresnahan.. 14965
Sisler..... 13892
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
RYAN....... 12663.5 (x)
Mendez..... 12555
CRAVATH.....12395 (120)
Thompson... 12349

Roush...... 12005
WALTERS.....11890 (93)
Bennett.... 11503
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
Beckwith.... 9896
DOYLE....... 9816 (x)
GRIMES.......9809 (70)
BJOHNSON.....9679 (56)

BMONROE......7947 (6)

WILLIAMSON...6907 (87)
SCHANG.......6898 (24)
WILLIS.......6504 (160)

Others in active top 50:

DDean 5955, Elliott 5227, Bridges 5096, Rizzuto 5057, Joss 4842, BTaylor 4807, TPerez 4342, Tiant 3997, FChance 3862, Traynor 3832, NCash 3779, CMays 3778, Cepeda 3456X, Cicotte 3315, McCormick 3301, SRice 3301X, LBrock 3176, BoBonds 3015, EHoward 2923, Singleton 2723, Tiernan 2709X, FJones 2636X, VStephens 2603, Klein 2601X, BClarkson 2599, Puckett 2495, Staub 2396X, Veach 2388X, GJBurns 2388X, Mullane 2364, Dunlap 2298, Lombardi 2254, Concepcion 2137, Bancroft 2107, Newcombe 1859

   9. theorioleway Posted: December 12, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4323590)
Joe, I have volunteered again to write the plaques, see the Help Wanted thread for more discussion.
   10. Mr Dashwood Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:56 AM (#4323671)
Is Bernie Williams really that much worse than Sammy Sosa? Williams had at least double his vote total last time out, IIRC. I seriously considered putting Williams in place of Puckett.

EDIT: Also, I'm going to have a showdown between Buddy Bell, whom I never thought of as a Hall of Famer, and Pie Traynor. That's another pair whose vote totals I find remarkably far apart.
   11. Rusty Priske Posted: December 13, 2012 at 10:04 AM (#4323717)
I didn't realize we had gone to Elect 4! In that case, Piazza makes my PHoM this year, along with the same other 3.
   12. DL from MN Posted: December 13, 2012 at 10:29 AM (#4323729)
Just noticed that the backlog is currently topped by three HoF-not-HoM players.
   13. DL from MN Posted: December 13, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4323770)
caused 22 players to drop off the ballot

We could see 9-10 more next year based on the results you had above. I have 5 more coming on ballot.
   14. Mr Dashwood Posted: December 13, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4323790)
We could see 9-10 more next year based on the results you had above. I have 5 more coming on ballot.

I'm almost certainly going to think about only voting for returning candidates who have a shot at making the top ten. I feel too many of my ballot spots are wasted. It can only help the candidates I feel more strongly about, by pushing them higher up the fifteen.
   15. John Northey Posted: December 13, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4323811)
Kind of surprised no one voted for David Wells or Jack Morris given I expect both to get some support by the HOF voters. Of course, HOM voters are smart enough to look past Wins but Wells 49.2 WAR (9.9 more than Morris and just 5.6 behind Sosa) is an impressive total to go with his 239 wins.
   16. DL from MN Posted: December 13, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4323812)
Harder for Wells and Morris to make the cut when there are many other similar pitchers who are not elected either. Hall of Merit voting means perpetual eligibility.
   17. DL from MN Posted: December 13, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4323813)
I feel too many of my ballot spots are wasted.

I wouldn't, several people have used a ballot spot to lobby for an under-appreciated player and that started the ball rolling. Strategic voting is discouraged.
   18. ronw Posted: December 13, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4323889)
With this election we added 4 players, earlier this month the HOF added one of ours (yay Deacon White!). Overall there are 64 HOMers not in the HOF and 56 HOFers not in the HOM.

No idea how many of our 4 electees will drop off the list this year. Our recent elections are pushing us beyond the HOF.

HOM-not-HOF through 2012 - 64

1 Allen, Dick
2 Bagwell, Jeff
3 Barnes, Ross
4 Beckwith, John
5 Bennett, Charlie
6 Biggio, Craig
7 Bonds, Barry
8 Boyer, Ken
9 Brown, Kevin
10 Browning, Pete
11 Caruthers, Bob
12 Childs, Cupid
13 Clark, Will
14 Clemens, Roger
15 Cone, David
16 Dahlen, Bill
17 Evans, Darrell
18 Evans, Dwight
19 Ferrell, Wes
20 Freehan, Bill
21 Glasscock, Jack
22 Gore, George
23 Grich, Bobby
24 Groh, Heinie
25 Hack, Stan
26 Hernandez, Keith
27 Hines, Paul
28 Jackson, Joe*
29 Johnson, Home Run
30 Jones, Charley
31 Keller, Charlie
32 Lundy, Dick
33 Magee, Sherry
34 Martinez, Edgar
35 McGwire, Mark
36 McVey, Cal
37 Minoso, Minnie
38 Moore, Dobie
39 Nettles, Graig
40 Oms, Alejandro
41 Palmeiro, Rafael
42 Pearce, Dickey
43 Piazza, Mike
44 Pierce, Billy
45 Pike, Lip
46 Randolph, Willie
47 Raines, Tim
48 Reuschel, Rick
49 Richardson, Hardy
50 Rose, Pete*
51 Saberhagen, Bret
52 Sheckard, Jimmy
53 Simmons, Ted
54 Smith, Reggie
55 Start, Joe
56 Stieb, Dave
57 Stovey, Harry
58 Sutton, Ezra
59 Torre, Joe
60 Trammell, Alan
61 Trouppe, Quincy
62 Walker, Larry
63 Whitaker, Lou
64 Wynn, Jimmy

* not eligible for the HOF

HOF-not-HOM through 2012 - 56

1 Aparicio, Luis
2 Bancroft, Dave
3 Bender, Chief
4 Bottomley, Jim
5 Brock, Lou
6 Cepeda, Orlando
7 Chance, Frank
8 Chesbro, Jack
9 Combs, Earle
10 Cooper, Andy
11 Cuyler, Kiki
12 Dandridge, Ray
13 Day, Leon
14 Dean, Dizzy
15 Duffy, Hugh
16 Evers, Johnny
17 Ferrell, Rick
18 Gomez, Lefty
19 Grimes, Burleigh
20 Hafey, Chick
21 Haines, Jesse
22 Hooper, Harry
23 Hoyt, Waite
24 Hunter, Catfish
25 Jackson, Travis
26 Johnson, Judy
27 Joss, Addie
28 Kell, George
29 Kelly, George
30 Klein, Chuck
31 Lazzeri, Tony
32 Lindstrom, Freddie
33 Lombardi, Ernie
34 Manush, Heinie
35 Maranville, Rabbit
36 Marquard, Rube
37 Mazeroski, Bill
38 McCarthy, Tommy
39 Pennock, Herb
40 Perez, Tony
41 Puckett, Kirby
42 Rice, Jim
43 Rice, Sam
44 Rizzuto, Phil
45 Schalk, Ray
46 Schoendienst, Red
47 Smith, Hilton
48 Sutter, Bruce
49 Taylor, Ben
50 Tinker, Joe
51 Traynor, Pie
52 Waner, Lloyd
53 Welch, Mickey
54 Willis, Vic
55 Wilson, Hack
56 Youngs, Ross
   19. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4324281)
The non hof list can be reduced by atleast 6 ineligible for the hof:
ross barnes
joe jackson
cal mcvey
dickey pearce
lip pike
pete rose

2 others were elected by the hom due to quality of play outside the us:
Alejandro oms
quincy trouppe

Removing these 8 makes each list 56
   20. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 14, 2012 at 02:29 AM (#4324530)
Shout out to the Hall of Merit, courtesy of Alex Remington on Fangraphs:

   21. Al Peterson Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:50 AM (#4324615)
Electees are no surprise, congrats to all.

I see the shiny new toy award might go to Kenny Lofton. He just ran over other backlog CFs - Bernie Williams doesn't know what hit him. And Willie Davis looks too similar to Lofton for my liking for one to be at 15th, the other dropping off.

No votes for Van Haltren or Ryan? Old friends eventually fade away even with perpetual ballot eligibility.
   22. DanG Posted: December 14, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4325025)
The non hof list can be reduced by atleast 6 ineligible for the hof:
ross barnes
joe jackson
cal mcvey
dickey pearce
lip pike
pete rose
There are also six other HoMers who are not included among the HOF's player consideration set:

George Wright
Al Spalding
Joe Torre
John McGraw
Rube Foster
Clark Griffith

So it's not yet true to say that "Our recent elections are pushing us beyond the HOF." Granted that day is not far off, unless the Hall unleashes the VC and they return to the days of electing 2-3 players every year.
   23. sunnyday2 Posted: December 15, 2012 at 12:00 AM (#4325334)
Rizzuto and Peskovitch also seem to diverge more than you'd expect. Clearly voters who have either (or, like me, both) on their ballot are giving war credit.

Rizzuto 231 "real" win shares--my adjusted is 308
Pesky 187--adjusted 274

What is really surprising, however, is the following:

Boudreau 277 real win shares--adjusted just 269--there's a war discount for reduced caliber of opposition
Stephens 265 and 257--virtually indistinguishable from Boudreau, and neither (I repeat, neither) was as good as Rizzuto.

Boudreau is also indistinguishable from Pesky, obviously many voters never got the hang of that war credit thing, and no question Boudreau enjoyed a big halo effect.

Reese on the other hand (at 314 and 386) really was that much better than the rest.
   24. Chris Cobb Posted: December 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM (#4325447)
Re Al Peterson's and sunnyday2's comments on shifts in electoral support:

Although I know that there are some voters who are, problematically, averse to giving war credit, I think that the success of Lofton and the divergence of Rizzuto's fortunes from Pesky's has less to do with "shiny new toy" or "no war credit" issues than with the gradual shift in the metrics on which voters are relying.

Boudreau, Stephens, and war-credited Pesky may look identical in win shares, but here are their numbers (with war credit but not MiL credit for Pesky) from BBRef's WAR, which has war-time competition adjustments baked in (maybe not enough, but some):

Boudreau - 59.1
Pesky - 45.9
Stephens - 41.8

Rizzuto - 51.2

There are other metrics out there that tell different stories about these players, but I'd guess more are accepting the BBRef WAR story than the WS story.

Shiny new toy or BBRef judgment?

Lofton - 64.9
W. Davis - 56.8

You may or may not like this metric, or other metrics that are out there, but voter decisions in these cases are much more attributable to their decisions about metrics than to psychological quirks like Shiny New Toy syndrome or attitudinal failures like unwillingness to give war credit. Although the case for war credit still needs to be made, that alone isn't going to turn around Pesky's electoral fortunes, and raising shiny new toy concerns about Kenny Lofton isn't going to weaken his support. If anything, people were placing Lofton conservatively, because the popular image of Lofton doesn't quite square with what the metrics showed. If 5 years from now, the fielding metrics have not shifted on Lofton's quality, he'll bounce upward pretty fast, as what is now the "shiny new metric" will become accepted sabermetric wisdom.
   25. OCF Posted: December 15, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4325613)
I finally got around to re-doing the consensus score formula for an elect-4 year. (It's similar to, but not quite identical to, what's in the ballot tabulator. This was a very easy election to be agreeable in. The mean consensus score was +15.6, and you have to go all the way back to 1935 to find a higher average. The highest possible consensus score would have been +25. Here are some selected scores:

Devin: 21
theorioleway: 21
OCF: 20
Chris Cobb: 20
Bleed the Freak: 20
Mike Webber: 20
ronw: 17
Ardo: 17 (median)
fra paolo: 9
Daryn: 8
Carl Goetz: 8
Rusty Priske: 8
karlmagnus: 7
sunnyday2: 5

8 2012 voters did not cast a 2013 ballot, while there were 5 2013 voters who didn't cast a 2012 ballot. Of those 5, 3 were previous voters returning from a year or two off: Chris Cobb, James Newburg, Rusty Priske. Then as far as I know, Willie Mays Hayes and Michael J. Binkley are new voters. (If they're previous voters with new handles, then someone tell me.) Those two new voters both had consensus scores of +19.

Not putting Bonds and Clemens 1-2 would have dramatically lowered a consensus score. No one did that.
   26. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: December 15, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4325655)

This was my second year voting - I used the handle Arquimedez Pozo Principle last year when I voted.
   27. cardsfanboy Posted: December 15, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4325705)
Hat tip to you all, great job. It's nice to see that Bonds got all first place votes(there was a guy earlier in the year who kept implying that Bonds was going to get punished by the hom because of racism... it was an absurd comment, but glad to see he was proven wrong) I am surprised no one gave Bonds a one year penalty though. I don't agree with everyone of your selections, but this has to be, by far, one of the most complete, group researched baseball endeavors ever performed.
   28. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: December 15, 2012 at 06:46 PM (#4325728)
OCF - I formerly went by Got Melky?
   29. OCF Posted: December 15, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4325797)
OK, so there were no new voters.
   30. Nate the Neptunian Posted: December 16, 2012 at 11:38 AM (#4325982)

2 others were elected by the hom due to quality of play outside the us:
Alejandro oms
quincy trouppe

These two were eligible for the 2006 Negro League Committee vote. I don't think the Committee would have considered a player who didn't play at all in the US, like Perucho Cepeda, but players who played a mix of US and Latin ball were considered. And Mendez, for instance, almost certainly needed his play in Cuba to make the HoF. (His plaque even mentions play in Cuba, though it's a bit of an odd case in that it was exhibition play against an MLB team.) Oms was definitely considered a serious candidate, because he made the cut from the 94 person preliminary ballot to the 34 person final ballot. I can't find any evidence that Trouppe was considered, but he was eligible.

ross barnes
joe jackson
cal mcvey
dickey pearce
lip pike
pete rose

I was thinking that even though Barnes, McVey, Pearce, and Pike didn't play 10 years in the majors, they'd still be eligible as pioneers, similar to how Wright and Spalding are classified. But looking at the current Veteran's Committee rules, it looks like there's currently no process for putting a pioneer on the ballot. So I guess those guys are ineligible under the current rules. That's a shame.
   31. The Honorable Ardo Posted: December 18, 2012 at 02:14 AM (#4327467)
Is it too early to kindle the hot stove for next year? I figure most voters will have Greg Maddux #1 and Frank Thomas #2, but the argument over the relative ranking of newcomers Glavine & Mussina and the holdover Schilling will be fascinating.

Also, will 2013 be an elect-3 or an elect-4 ballot?
   32. DL from MN Posted: December 18, 2012 at 07:37 AM (#4327500)
2013 should be back to elect-3. I can get next year's discussion thread up after 2012 MMP voting is done. I'd love for more people to participate in the 2012 MMP vote.
   33. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 18, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4327769)
"I'm almost certainly going to think about only voting for returning candidates who have a shot at making the top ten. I feel too many of my ballot spots are wasted. It can only help the candidates I feel more strongly about, by pushing them higher up the fifteen."

To clarify DL's #17, strategic voting is not 'discouraged', it is prohibited.

Thanks for being honest fra, but what you are suggesting is absolutely not allowed. Voters need to vote for the 15 players they think have the most merit. If not, the whole system breaks down.
   34. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 18, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4327770)
Shout out to the Hall of Merit, courtesy of Alex Remington on Fangraphs:

Very cool!
   35. Bourbon Samurai stays in the fight Posted: December 18, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4328049)
Thanks to you guys who do this. These are always great reads. I'd participate but my ballots would be all
1. Jack Morris (awesome moustache)
2. Cannonball Dick Redding (he has Cannonball in his name!)
3. Wally Schang (heh, Schang)

and then I'd get bored.
   36. Qufini Posted: December 19, 2012 at 10:09 AM (#4328435)
Hat tip to you all, great job. It's nice to see that Bonds got all first place votes(there was a guy earlier in the year who kept implying that Bonds was going to get punished by the hom because of racism... it was an absurd comment, but glad to see he was proven wrong) I am surprised no one gave Bonds a one year penalty though. I don't agree with everyone of your selections, but this has to be, by far, one of the most complete, group researched baseball endeavors ever performed.

Thank you, cardsfanboy. Although I'm sure each one of us would switch out 15 or so of the inductees for our own preferred candidates, the results of a group project like this are much more rigorous and much more satisfying. Like you, I am surprised that no one gave Bonds or Clemens a one-year penalty. I remember a couple of one-year boycotts for Cap Anson, Pete Rose and Mark McGwire. However, I suspect that the steroids hard-liners may have dropped out of the project because I don't remember Palmeiro receiving any boycotts in his first year either.
   37. Qufini Posted: December 19, 2012 at 10:10 AM (#4328436)
Also, will 2013 be an elect-3 or an elect-4 ballot?

I think the next elect-4 year is 2016.
   38. bjhanke Posted: December 19, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4328567)
First off, thanks to everyone who administers this project, from the retired Grandma (MANY thanks) to whoever tabulated the votes and will write the plaques. I love this project, but I'm aware of how much work other people do so that I can enjoy it.

Second, just to make sure no one start wondering, since the name came up - I didn't vote for Rafael Palmeiro in his first year or any other year, but that wasn't a steroid boycott. I just don't think Rafael is HoM material. Close, but not there. I got outvoted, but that's only fair, it's how the project works. I would imagine that everyone here has someone that they have never voted for because they just don't think the guy was good enough, but who has come under some sort of steroid suspicion. Unless someone deliberately labels a vote as a boycott, I'm not going to think that it was. - Brock
   39. Qufini Posted: December 19, 2012 at 01:52 PM (#4328716)
Thanks for the confirmation, Brock. I didn't remember any explicit boycotts for Palmeiro, but that doesn't mean he made everybody's ballot. Similarly, several people didn't vote for Sosa this year but unless they specifically said it was a boycott, I figure they simply didn't find him worthy of a ballot spot.
   40. theorioleway Posted: December 20, 2012 at 09:59 PM (#4329810)
Ardo, I wouldn't be so sure that Thomas is a lock for #2...I need to evaluate the candidates in detail, but from just eyeballing it, I think I'll have Maddux, Mussina, and Schilling all ahead of Thomas, and possibly Glavine too.
   41. Howie Menckel Posted: December 21, 2012 at 10:33 PM (#4330714)
could be:

2014 - MADDUX, FTHOMAS, Schilling (with GLAVINE, MUSSINA, KENT, Sosa in some order)
2015 - RJOHNSON, PMARTINEZ, SMOLTZ (with SHEFFIELD, Glavine, Mussina, Kent, Sosa in some order)
2016 - GRIFFEY, Mussina, Kent, Sheffield (with EDMONDS, Sosa in some order)
2017 - I-ROD, MANNY, POSADA (with VLAD, Edmonds, Sosa in some order)
2018 - CHIPPER, anyone else great just retire?

the only things I do know:
- those projections will have errors
- it sucks to be a backlogger and will for years

   42. DL from MN Posted: December 21, 2012 at 11:29 PM (#4330739)
2018 - Jim Thome doesn't have a job yet and Rolen might be done
   43. Howie Menckel Posted: December 21, 2012 at 11:59 PM (#4330756)

interesting - I'd add THOME to 2018 - but put Rolen into the short scramble for No. 3....

   44. Chris Cobb Posted: December 22, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4330866)
Howie's projections show why the occasional elect-four year is highly appropriate and why the Hall of Fame's BBWAA election system is about to break, badly, without some significant changes on both criteria and design.

I'd project

2014 -- Maddux, Thomas, Schilling (Mussina, Glavine, Sosa, Kent, Lofton 1990s backlog)
2015 -- R. Johnson, P. Martinez, Mussina (Glavine, Sosa, Smoltz, Sheffield, Kent, Lofton 1990s backlog)
2016 -- Griffey, Glavine, Sosa, Smoltz (Edmonds, Sheffield, Kent, Lofton 1990s backlog)
2017 -- I. Rodriguez, Ramirez, Edmonds (Posada, V. Guerrero, Sheffield, Kent, Lofton 1990s backlog)
2018 -- Chi. Jones, Thome, Posada (V. Guerroro, Sheffield, Kent, Lofton 1990s backlog)
   45. Howie Menckel Posted: December 22, 2012 at 10:45 AM (#4330872)
geesh, I forgot to "elect" Glavine

but we won't be scraping the bottom of the barrel anytime soon...

   46. theorioleway Posted: December 22, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4330894)
Another guy possibly eligible in 2018 is Bobby Abreu--don't know if I'll support him for the HOM or not, but I'm guessing he'll have at least enough support to stay around the top of the backlog.
   47. lieiam Posted: December 23, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4331306)
I love these hypothetical lists of the next few years... especially because so many QUALITY players will be eligible.
I ran through the possibilities using the 5 systems I have easy access to (Fangraphs WAR, Baseball-Reference WAR, Baseball Gauge WAR, Win Shares, & WSAB).
I ran through in each system (adding my usual 10% catcher bonus (done as percentage of games caught)starting in 2013 and going through 2018 (including Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Scott Rolen & Bobby Abreu as being 2018 eligibles). Anyway, I won't run through it now in all the details, but I will summarize by how many of the 5 systems each of the players make it into the electable spots through 2018.

Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Maddux, Thomas, Glavine, Johnson, Griffey, Edmonds, Ramirez, Jones, Thome.
Biggio, Schilling, Mussina, Martinez, Sheffield, Smoltz, Rodriguez.
Lofton, Kent, Guerrero, Abreu

   48. theorioleway Posted: December 23, 2012 at 11:31 AM (#4331435)
Interesting results lieiam. Was there one particular metric that didn't like the players grouped in the "4 systems" or was it variant on each player? And should I interpret these results to indicate that by your system, none of the metrics think Posada is worthy?
   49. lieiam Posted: December 23, 2012 at 01:55 PM (#4331524)
For the 4 system guys, the pitchers (Schilling, Mussina, Martinez, Smoltz) all fall short using Win Shares.
Biggio falls short in BaseballGauge WAR; Sheffield falls short in BaseballReferenceWAR; Rodriguez falls short in WSAB.
And you are correct in your interpretation, that Posada falls short (using this method) in all five of the metrics used.
   50. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 23, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4331555)
In the faux HOM, that Hall of Fame joint, is there any chance enough SABR arguments have reached the MSM such that Lofton gets 5% and stays on the ballot?
   51. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 24, 2012 at 01:37 AM (#4331817)
I think Lofton could have reached 5% if this ballot wasn't loaded. If this was a typical year where the limit wasn't an issue I think he would have made it.
   52. djrelays Posted: December 24, 2012 at 09:53 AM (#4331867)
re #50: "is there any chance enough SABR arguments have reached the MSM such that Lofton gets 5% and stays on the ballot?"

I think there is a chance Lofton gets 5%, not because of SABR arguments, but because of the perception that he's clean.

A great contest would be to see who can correctly pick the BBWAA order from first on down. If there were 100 entries, I doubt the winner would even have the first 10 places correct.
   53. Patrick W Posted: January 05, 2013 at 01:26 PM (#4339676)
I have posted a new HOM History Excel file to the Yahoo Groups site, updated through the 2013 election. The file contains separate tabs for each election since 1898, plus summary tabs of the Hall Electees, Player Voting Totals, and Voter History. I figured 5 years was a good time for an update to the previous file.

Among the interesting highlights contained within:

- Congratulations to the 5 people who have contributed to all 116 elections: Howie Menckel, Rob Wood, John Murphy, Al Peterson... and Mickey Welch. Dan b and Devin have only missed one election, and Ed/Ned Williamson has only not received votes in two elections.

- Only Curt Schilling, Hugh Duffy, George Van Haltren, Ed Williamson, and Jimmy Ryan have received a Score of 40% or higher and not been elected in a future election. Score is points per ballot, expressed as a percentage of a perfect ballot.

- 491 unique players have received at least 1/6th of a vote in our elections (Candy Cummings garnered that partial vote - and no others - in 1898).

- 114 unique voters have cast a ballot in our elections - I think (I could've missed a name change or two over the years). 26 of us have voted in over 100 of these elections, including 22 'active' voters (voted at least once since 2009).

- Just in the last two elections, there have been 40 unique voters - and 54 since 2009. Although the vote totals have been lower the past 3 years, the voters still appear to be out there - just not all together for each election.

- Despite not receiving any votes in 2013, Van Haltren & J.Ryan have still averaged a Score of more than 10% per election since becoming eligible. John McGraw and Dick Lundy were the only two elected to the HOM without hitting a 10% average.

- There is a dip in active HOM players in the 1950s, compared to the active players between 1923 and 1990. I'm wondering if this is a result of dropping from 3 Major Leagues to 2 (counting the NeL as the 3rd) before expansion starts in the 1960s.

Anyways, there might be some interesting stuff for you to take a look at.
   54. DL from MN Posted: January 10, 2013 at 11:46 AM (#4344148)
No yest this year but we got back Chris Cobb.
   55. Cooper Nielson Posted: January 11, 2013 at 04:01 AM (#4344813)
Good seeing Ben Taylor on the rise.

I'm embarrassed to admit that I have no idea who Ben Taylor is. (I'm not a voter, but I enjoy reading the HOM threads from time to time.)
   56. DL from MN Posted: January 11, 2013 at 10:33 AM (#4344920)
Ben Taylor is an early 1900s Negro League first baseman who was elected to the Hall of Fame a few years ago.
   57. lieiam Posted: January 12, 2013 at 12:42 PM (#4345621)
Regarding my listings in post 47 and 49 I noticed (on the 2014 Hall Of Merit thread) that I had left out Luis Gonzalez.
And in Win Shares he squeaks in sometime by 2018 (I forget which year but the post above was summing up everything by system through 2018.
So, as an update, Luis Gonzalez would get in in 1 system and that knocks Scott Rolen out in WS (using said methodology) dropping him to 2 systems.

And (since I'm rambling again about this goofy project I did), here are the yearly results (of newbies only) starting with 2013:
2013: Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Schilling [obviously it already diverges from actual HOM results)
2014: Maddux, Thomas, Glavine
2015: Johnson, Martinez, Mussina
2016: Griffey, Sheffield, Smoltz, Piazza
2017: Ramirez, Rodriguez, Edmonds
2018: Jones, Thome, Rolen [big question on whether these guys will be eligible]
new backlog leaders: Abreu, Guerrero, Kent, Sosa, Lofton
   58. DL from MN Posted: January 12, 2013 at 07:01 PM (#4345786)
Does Trevor Hoffman make things interesting in that list?
   59. lieiam Posted: January 13, 2013 at 12:44 PM (#4346162)
No, Hoffman (at a glance) would only not come in dead last in WSAB (but he wouldn't make it using that system).
Of course, there is a question of how good the systems are for rating relief pitchers. I tend to be skeptical of their value (on a HOM level) for the most part and don't have any adjustment built in to boost their numbers. I mean, Hoffman certainly had a damn fine career, but... What I should do is plug in Rivera into this system with this crop of players and see how he comes out. Hopefully I'll try that and comment on what happens.
   60. Howie Menckel Posted: January 13, 2013 at 12:51 PM (#4346171)

fun stats, Patrick W!

   61. lieiam Posted: January 13, 2013 at 07:50 PM (#4346462)
So I messed about and plugged in Mariano Rivera (to test how relief pitchers CAN do in this uber stat blender system of mine).
Rivera certainly fares better than Hoffman, and (compared to this group of players) would make it (assuming he doesn't come back as planned this coming season) using WSAB. Using the full 5 systems method discussed above (see comment 57)he comes out between Lofton and ahead of L.Gonzalez.
   62. Captain Supporter Posted: June 14, 2014 at 10:14 AM (#4725776)
This has become the Hall of Cheaters and Frauds.
   63. alilisd Posted: June 14, 2014 at 12:15 PM (#4725816)
Patience Captain Jockstrap. The Jeter will send them all packing, with gift baskets in hand, in a few years.
   64. DL from MN Posted: June 14, 2014 at 05:37 PM (#4726071)
This has become the Hall of Cheaters and Frauds.

Joe Jackson was elected almost 90 years ago and Rose over 20 years past. You haven't been paying attention.
   65. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: June 14, 2014 at 05:57 PM (#4726088)
This has become the Hall of Cheaters and Frauds.

How dare you cast aspersions on the sanctity of the Core Four™ and the ringzzz?
   66. Howie Menckel Posted: June 14, 2014 at 06:48 PM (#4726148)

Maybe in 2014 we'll elect steroid-hater Frank Thomas and a couple of pantywaist pitchers like Maddux and Glavine!
   67. Jimmy Posted: August 23, 2014 at 06:16 PM (#4777835)
of all the players listed, tony oliva is a surprise to me that you guys did not pick.

but i see he also has not made the real hall of fame, either.

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