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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Wednesday, December 12, 20122013 Results: Bonds, Clemens, Piazza and Biggio are elected to the Hall of Merit!Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio have been elected to the Hall of Merit! The timing for our first year electing 4 candidates could not have worked out better, since class of 2013 is the strongest in terms of electees that we’ve ever had. The top of the 1934 ballot included Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Eddie Collins, Pop Lloyd, Smokey Joe Williams and Cristobal Torriente, but only 2 were elected. Bonds and Clemens were each unanimous at 1 and 2. I believe that’s the first time since Babe Ruth and Rogers Hornsby in 1941, but I could be forgetting one. Piazza received 30 of 34 3rd place votes and Biggio was 4-5 on 25 of the 34 ballots and 3rd on two others. Curt Schilling picked up the other two 3rd place votes and 22 total top 5 votes and appears to be a lock for election by 2016, possibly sooner. Sammy Sosa also polled a strong 6th which should see him inducted by 2017. Kenny Lofton was the only other new candidate to get a vote, finishing 15th. He was just behind Hugh Duffy and ahead of Bucky Walters. Lofton was named on 10 ballots. Amongst the backloggers Vic Willis moved from 6th to first - an average returnee would have lost 3-4 places this election, yet Willis actually moved up 2 spots. Phil Rizzuto is still a strong second in the backlog and Ben Taylor improved from a tie for 14th all the way to 9th, gaining 7-8 places on the field. The race should be tight when we finally elect a long-term backlogger again in 2017. The last ballot nudged Dick Redding ahead of Gavy Cravath for 10th place. Buddy Bell has cracked into the core group of about 15 reasonably strong candidates (he finished 17th), replacing Sal Bando who fell from 10th to 23rd. The consensus at the top, the net loss of 3 voters, and strong class of new candidates (the average voter had to drop 3 players from his ballot to make room for the new class) caused 22 players to drop off the ballot. I cannot remember a number that large. RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 n/e Barry Bonds 816 34 34 2 n/e Roger Clemens 782 34 34 3 n/e Mike Piazza 732 34 30 2 2 4 n/e Craig Biggio 620 34 2 16 9 3 3 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 n/e Curt Schilling 499 30 2 10 10 1 2 1 1 3 6 n/e Sammy Sosa 308 26 4 1 4 2 3 2 6 1 2 1 7 9 Vic Willis 160 14 1 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 8 4 Phil Rizzuto 155 14 1 3 1 1 4 2 1 1 9 14T Ben Taylor 139 12 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 10 6 Cannonball Dick Redding 122 10 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 8 Gavy Cravath 120 12 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 12 5 Luis Tiant 111 12 2 3 3 2 2 13 12 Bobby Bonds 106 8 1 3 2 2 14 7 Hugh Duffy 104 8 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 15 n/e Kenny Lofton 103 10 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 16 14T Bucky Walters 93 7 1 2 3 1 17 24 Buddy Bell 92 9 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 18 13 Tommy Leach 88 8 1 1 1 1 1 3 19 16 Ned Williamson 87 7 1 1 1 1 2 1 20 11 Don Newcombe 85 8 1 2 1 2 1 1 21 20 Fred McGriff 81 8 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 22 17T Hilton Smith 74 6 1 2 1 1 1 23 10 Sal Bando 73 6 2 1 1 1 1 24T 21 Tommy Bridges 72 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 24T 19 Bus Clarkson 72 6 2 1 1 1 1 26 17T Burleigh Grimes 70 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 27 22 Johnny Pesky 69 7 1 1 1 1 3 28 28 Bert Campaneris 68 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 29 25 Bob Johnson 56 6 1 1 1 1 2 30 32 Tommy John 55 5 1 1 1 2 31 38 Kevin Appier 50 6 1 1 1 1 2 32 34 Mickey Welch 49 5 1 2 1 1 33 29T Tony Perez 45 5 1 1 1 2 34 42T Urban Shocker 40 3 2 1 35 37 Dave Concepcion 39 5 1 1 3 36 42T Lee Smith 39 4 1 1 1 1 37 35 Albert Belle 38 4 1 2 1 38 33 Kirby Puckett 36 4 1 1 1 1 39 39 John Olerud 34 4 1 2 1 40 47 Elston Howard 33 3 2 1 41T 23 Dizzy Dean 32 3 1 1 1 41T 31 Bob Elliott 32 3 1 1 1 41T 59 Carl Mays 32 3 2 1 41T 48T Jim McCormick 32 3 1 2 45 48T Addie Joss 32 2 1 1 46 36 Pie Traynor 29 3 2 1 47 50 Ed Cicotte 29 2 1 1 48 40T Norm Cash 28 3 1 1 1 49 46 Babe Adams 28 2 2 50 45 Vern Stephens 27 3 1 1 1 51 44 Dolf Luque 27 2 1 1 52T 57 Dave Bancroft 24 2 1 1 52T 56 Wally Schang 24 2 1 1 54T 54 Tommy Bond 21 2 1 1 54T 40T Dwight Gooden 21 2 1 1 56T 27 Frank Chance 20 2 1 1 56T 58 Jim Rice 20 2 1 1 56T 80 Ken Singleton 20 2 1 1 59T 55 Lou Brock 19 2 1 1 59T 53 Dale Murphy 19 2 1 1 59T 63 Al Rosen 19 2 1 1 62 26 Bernie Williams 18 2 1 1 63 41T Carlos Moran 17 2 1 1 64T -- Chuck Finley 16 2 1 1 64T 73T Tony Mullane 16 2 1 1 66 67 Fred Dunlap 15 1 1 67T 60 Jack Quinn 14 1 1 67T 68 Frank Tanana 14 1 1 69 62 Ernie Lombardi 13 1 1 70 69T Lefty Gomez 11 1 1 71T 78 Luis Aparicio 10 1 1 71T 76 Luke Easter 10 1 1 73 65T Bruce Sutter 9 1 1 74T 61 Ron Cey 8 1 1 74T -- Roy White 8 1 1 76T 81T Sam Leever 7 1 1 76T 81T Dave Parker 7 1 1 76T 69T Gene Tenace 7 1 1 79T -- Mark Belanger 6 1 1 79T 64 Orel Hershiser 6 1 1 79T 29T Bill Monroe 6 1 1 79T -- Jim Sundberg 6 1 1 Dropped Out: Thurman Munson(41T), Sam Rice(65T), Larry Doyle(69T), Rabbit Maranville(72), Willie Davis(73T), Cesar Cedeno(75), Chuck Klein(77), Rusty Staub(79), Deacon Phillippe(81T), Ray Dandridge(84T), Don Mattingly(84T), Elmer Smith(84T), Tom York(84T), Frank Howard(88T), George Van Haltren(88T), Orlando Cepeda(90T), Charlie Hough(90T), Billy Nash(90T), Joe Tinker(90T), Jim Fregosi(94T), Tony Oliva(94T), Dan Quisenberry(94T). Ballots Cast: 34
JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: December 12, 2012 at 09:14 PM | 67 comment(s)
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1. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 12, 2012 at 09:49 PM (#4323535)Also bigger thanks to OCF and Ron W. for tallying the ballots. Seeing how long it took me to add one ballot to the final tally gives me an appreciation for the time-consuming work that is.
Congrats to the electees as well! Has anyone volunteered to write the plaques?
Here's a question (which I could probably answer myself but it would take time): how many players have ever been unanimously second on an HoM ballot? Clemens was that this year. Previously, I know of Hornsby (behind Ruth) and Frank Robinson (behind Aaron). Any others?
You are correct OCF!
Frank Robinson is correct from 1982 - all 56 2nd place votes (nice voter turnout!)
Eddie Mathews just missed in 1974 - 51 of 52 2nd place and a 4th. - yest preferred George Sisler and Pie Traynor.
Yogi Berra was close in 1969 - 45 2nd place and 3 3rd place.
Mel Ott was close in 1952 -1 1st and 1 5th, with 48 2nd place. - yest had Ott 1st and Josh Gibson 4th!...and Gadfly had him 5th (Gibson, Cravath, Beckwith, and Redding)
Rogers Hornsby is correct from 1941 - all 53 votes
Hat tip to Patrick W for putting together a fantastic Excel spreadsheet after the Hall of Merit caught up to the realtime vote in 2008.
Patrick uploaded the document to the Hall of Merit Yahoo Group.
Some other interesting notes from the file:
Elections with players who remain unelected but finished first among the backlog:
George Van Haltren finished 3rd in 1932, 62 points behind Rube Foster (HOM has since elected Griffith, Pike, Beckley, Jennings, Waddell, Bresnahan, Childs, Browning, Mendez, CJones, and Moore)
Dick Redding finished 4th in 1998, 8 points behind Jake Beckley (HOM has since elected Randolph, Browning, Fingers, Bresnahan, CJones, Stieb, Oms, Nettles, and Lundy)
Bob Johnson finished 4th in 2005, 4 points behind Andre Dawson (HOM has since elected Oms, Saberhagen, Nettles, and Lundy).
ronw or RickA likely will fix the occasional mistakes, and thanks for that
..........
all-time 'votes points' thru 2013 - those still eligible in 2014 election are in CAPS
electees are not in caps
George Van Haltren's century-old constituency couldn't survive this influx; like longtime competition Jimmy Ryan, relegated to the dustbin of history except for this list, I suspect.
Redding fading, but knocking on Cupid Childs' door for 6th and has a shot to catch Mickey Welch as the all-time pitching holdover. For the lesser actives on here, a deadly 4-5 year period; any votes at all will be welcomed.
TOP 50, ALL-TIME, unofficial (pts this year)
DUFFY...... 27717.5 (104)
VAN HALTREN 26913.5 (x)
Beckley.... 25856
Browning... 24502.5
WELCH...... 18732 (49)
Childs..... 18484
REDDING.... 18471 (122)
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
Jennings... 16976
TLEACH..... 15917 (88)
ChaJones...15875
Bresnahan.. 14965
Sisler..... 13892
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
RYAN....... 12663.5 (x)
Mendez..... 12555
CRAVATH.....12395 (120)
Thompson... 12349
Roush...... 12005
WALTERS.....11890 (93)
Bennett.... 11503
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
Beckwith.... 9896
DOYLE....... 9816 (x)
GRIMES.......9809 (70)
BJOHNSON.....9679 (56)
HStovey......9576
Mackey.......8930
AOms.........8385
Start........8378.5
McGinnity....8232
McGraw.......8145
DPearce......8073
McVey........7985.5
FGrant.......7969.5
BMONROE......7947 (6)
Kiner........7746
Suttles......7690
NFox.........7587
Trouppe......7494
WFerrell.....7259
CPBell.......6968
WILLIAMSON...6907 (87)
SCHANG.......6898 (24)
Galvin.......6585
WILLIS.......6504 (160)
Others in active top 50:
DDean 5955, Elliott 5227, Bridges 5096, Rizzuto 5057, Joss 4842, BTaylor 4807, TPerez 4342, Tiant 3997, FChance 3862, Traynor 3832, NCash 3779, CMays 3778, Cepeda 3456X, Cicotte 3315, McCormick 3301, SRice 3301X, LBrock 3176, BoBonds 3015, EHoward 2923, Singleton 2723, Tiernan 2709X, FJones 2636X, VStephens 2603, Klein 2601X, BClarkson 2599, Puckett 2495, Staub 2396X, Veach 2388X, GJBurns 2388X, Mullane 2364, Dunlap 2298, Lombardi 2254, Concepcion 2137, Bancroft 2107, Newcombe 1859
EDIT: Also, I'm going to have a showdown between Buddy Bell, whom I never thought of as a Hall of Famer, and Pie Traynor. That's another pair whose vote totals I find remarkably far apart.
We could see 9-10 more next year based on the results you had above. I have 5 more coming on ballot.
I'm almost certainly going to think about only voting for returning candidates who have a shot at making the top ten. I feel too many of my ballot spots are wasted. It can only help the candidates I feel more strongly about, by pushing them higher up the fifteen.
I wouldn't, several people have used a ballot spot to lobby for an under-appreciated player and that started the ball rolling. Strategic voting is discouraged.
No idea how many of our 4 electees will drop off the list this year. Our recent elections are pushing us beyond the HOF.
HOM-not-HOF through 2012 - 64
1 Allen, Dick
2 Bagwell, Jeff
3 Barnes, Ross
4 Beckwith, John
5 Bennett, Charlie
6 Biggio, Craig
7 Bonds, Barry
8 Boyer, Ken
9 Brown, Kevin
10 Browning, Pete
11 Caruthers, Bob
12 Childs, Cupid
13 Clark, Will
14 Clemens, Roger
15 Cone, David
16 Dahlen, Bill
17 Evans, Darrell
18 Evans, Dwight
19 Ferrell, Wes
20 Freehan, Bill
21 Glasscock, Jack
22 Gore, George
23 Grich, Bobby
24 Groh, Heinie
25 Hack, Stan
26 Hernandez, Keith
27 Hines, Paul
28 Jackson, Joe*
29 Johnson, Home Run
30 Jones, Charley
31 Keller, Charlie
32 Lundy, Dick
33 Magee, Sherry
34 Martinez, Edgar
35 McGwire, Mark
36 McVey, Cal
37 Minoso, Minnie
38 Moore, Dobie
39 Nettles, Graig
40 Oms, Alejandro
41 Palmeiro, Rafael
42 Pearce, Dickey
43 Piazza, Mike
44 Pierce, Billy
45 Pike, Lip
46 Randolph, Willie
47 Raines, Tim
48 Reuschel, Rick
49 Richardson, Hardy
50 Rose, Pete*
51 Saberhagen, Bret
52 Sheckard, Jimmy
53 Simmons, Ted
54 Smith, Reggie
55 Start, Joe
56 Stieb, Dave
57 Stovey, Harry
58 Sutton, Ezra
59 Torre, Joe
60 Trammell, Alan
61 Trouppe, Quincy
62 Walker, Larry
63 Whitaker, Lou
64 Wynn, Jimmy
* not eligible for the HOF
HOF-not-HOM through 2012 - 56
1 Aparicio, Luis
2 Bancroft, Dave
3 Bender, Chief
4 Bottomley, Jim
5 Brock, Lou
6 Cepeda, Orlando
7 Chance, Frank
8 Chesbro, Jack
9 Combs, Earle
10 Cooper, Andy
11 Cuyler, Kiki
12 Dandridge, Ray
13 Day, Leon
14 Dean, Dizzy
15 Duffy, Hugh
16 Evers, Johnny
17 Ferrell, Rick
18 Gomez, Lefty
19 Grimes, Burleigh
20 Hafey, Chick
21 Haines, Jesse
22 Hooper, Harry
23 Hoyt, Waite
24 Hunter, Catfish
25 Jackson, Travis
26 Johnson, Judy
27 Joss, Addie
28 Kell, George
29 Kelly, George
30 Klein, Chuck
31 Lazzeri, Tony
32 Lindstrom, Freddie
33 Lombardi, Ernie
34 Manush, Heinie
35 Maranville, Rabbit
36 Marquard, Rube
37 Mazeroski, Bill
38 McCarthy, Tommy
39 Pennock, Herb
40 Perez, Tony
41 Puckett, Kirby
42 Rice, Jim
43 Rice, Sam
44 Rizzuto, Phil
45 Schalk, Ray
46 Schoendienst, Red
47 Smith, Hilton
48 Sutter, Bruce
49 Taylor, Ben
50 Tinker, Joe
51 Traynor, Pie
52 Waner, Lloyd
53 Welch, Mickey
54 Willis, Vic
55 Wilson, Hack
56 Youngs, Ross
ross barnes
joe jackson
cal mcvey
dickey pearce
lip pike
pete rose
2 others were elected by the hom due to quality of play outside the us:
Alejandro oms
quincy trouppe
Removing these 8 makes each list 56
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-to-build-an-actual-hall-of-fame/
I see the shiny new toy award might go to Kenny Lofton. He just ran over other backlog CFs - Bernie Williams doesn't know what hit him. And Willie Davis looks too similar to Lofton for my liking for one to be at 15th, the other dropping off.
No votes for Van Haltren or Ryan? Old friends eventually fade away even with perpetual ballot eligibility.
Pioneer
George Wright
Al Spalding
Manager
Joe Torre
John McGraw
Rube Foster
Executive
Clark Griffith
So it's not yet true to say that "Our recent elections are pushing us beyond the HOF." Granted that day is not far off, unless the Hall unleashes the VC and they return to the days of electing 2-3 players every year.
Rizzuto 231 "real" win shares--my adjusted is 308
Pesky 187--adjusted 274
What is really surprising, however, is the following:
Boudreau 277 real win shares--adjusted just 269--there's a war discount for reduced caliber of opposition
Stephens 265 and 257--virtually indistinguishable from Boudreau, and neither (I repeat, neither) was as good as Rizzuto.
Boudreau is also indistinguishable from Pesky, obviously many voters never got the hang of that war credit thing, and no question Boudreau enjoyed a big halo effect.
Reese on the other hand (at 314 and 386) really was that much better than the rest.
Although I know that there are some voters who are, problematically, averse to giving war credit, I think that the success of Lofton and the divergence of Rizzuto's fortunes from Pesky's has less to do with "shiny new toy" or "no war credit" issues than with the gradual shift in the metrics on which voters are relying.
Boudreau, Stephens, and war-credited Pesky may look identical in win shares, but here are their numbers (with war credit but not MiL credit for Pesky) from BBRef's WAR, which has war-time competition adjustments baked in (maybe not enough, but some):
Boudreau - 59.1
Pesky - 45.9
Stephens - 41.8
Rizzuto - 51.2
There are other metrics out there that tell different stories about these players, but I'd guess more are accepting the BBRef WAR story than the WS story.
Shiny new toy or BBRef judgment?
Lofton - 64.9
W. Davis - 56.8
You may or may not like this metric, or other metrics that are out there, but voter decisions in these cases are much more attributable to their decisions about metrics than to psychological quirks like Shiny New Toy syndrome or attitudinal failures like unwillingness to give war credit. Although the case for war credit still needs to be made, that alone isn't going to turn around Pesky's electoral fortunes, and raising shiny new toy concerns about Kenny Lofton isn't going to weaken his support. If anything, people were placing Lofton conservatively, because the popular image of Lofton doesn't quite square with what the metrics showed. If 5 years from now, the fielding metrics have not shifted on Lofton's quality, he'll bounce upward pretty fast, as what is now the "shiny new metric" will become accepted sabermetric wisdom.
Devin: 21
theorioleway: 21
OCF: 20
Chris Cobb: 20
Bleed the Freak: 20
Mike Webber: 20
...
ronw: 17
Ardo: 17 (median)
...
fra paolo: 9
Daryn: 8
Carl Goetz: 8
Rusty Priske: 8
karlmagnus: 7
sunnyday2: 5
8 2012 voters did not cast a 2013 ballot, while there were 5 2013 voters who didn't cast a 2012 ballot. Of those 5, 3 were previous voters returning from a year or two off: Chris Cobb, James Newburg, Rusty Priske. Then as far as I know, Willie Mays Hayes and Michael J. Binkley are new voters. (If they're previous voters with new handles, then someone tell me.) Those two new voters both had consensus scores of +19.
Not putting Bonds and Clemens 1-2 would have dramatically lowered a consensus score. No one did that.
This was my second year voting - I used the handle Arquimedez Pozo Principle last year when I voted.
These two were eligible for the 2006 Negro League Committee vote. I don't think the Committee would have considered a player who didn't play at all in the US, like Perucho Cepeda, but players who played a mix of US and Latin ball were considered. And Mendez, for instance, almost certainly needed his play in Cuba to make the HoF. (His plaque even mentions play in Cuba, though it's a bit of an odd case in that it was exhibition play against an MLB team.) Oms was definitely considered a serious candidate, because he made the cut from the 94 person preliminary ballot to the 34 person final ballot. I can't find any evidence that Trouppe was considered, but he was eligible.
I was thinking that even though Barnes, McVey, Pearce, and Pike didn't play 10 years in the majors, they'd still be eligible as pioneers, similar to how Wright and Spalding are classified. But looking at the current Veteran's Committee rules, it looks like there's currently no process for putting a pioneer on the ballot. So I guess those guys are ineligible under the current rules. That's a shame.
Also, will 2013 be an elect-3 or an elect-4 ballot?
To clarify DL's #17, strategic voting is not 'discouraged', it is prohibited.
Thanks for being honest fra, but what you are suggesting is absolutely not allowed. Voters need to vote for the 15 players they think have the most merit. If not, the whole system breaks down.
Very cool!
1. Jack Morris (awesome moustache)
2. Cannonball Dick Redding (he has Cannonball in his name!)
3. Wally Schang (heh, Schang)
and then I'd get bored.
Thank you, cardsfanboy. Although I'm sure each one of us would switch out 15 or so of the inductees for our own preferred candidates, the results of a group project like this are much more rigorous and much more satisfying. Like you, I am surprised that no one gave Bonds or Clemens a one-year penalty. I remember a couple of one-year boycotts for Cap Anson, Pete Rose and Mark McGwire. However, I suspect that the steroids hard-liners may have dropped out of the project because I don't remember Palmeiro receiving any boycotts in his first year either.
I think the next elect-4 year is 2016.
Second, just to make sure no one start wondering, since the name came up - I didn't vote for Rafael Palmeiro in his first year or any other year, but that wasn't a steroid boycott. I just don't think Rafael is HoM material. Close, but not there. I got outvoted, but that's only fair, it's how the project works. I would imagine that everyone here has someone that they have never voted for because they just don't think the guy was good enough, but who has come under some sort of steroid suspicion. Unless someone deliberately labels a vote as a boycott, I'm not going to think that it was. - Brock
2014 - MADDUX, FTHOMAS, Schilling (with GLAVINE, MUSSINA, KENT, Sosa in some order)
2015 - RJOHNSON, PMARTINEZ, SMOLTZ (with SHEFFIELD, Glavine, Mussina, Kent, Sosa in some order)
2016 - GRIFFEY, Mussina, Kent, Sheffield (with EDMONDS, Sosa in some order)
2017 - I-ROD, MANNY, POSADA (with VLAD, Edmonds, Sosa in some order)
2018 - CHIPPER, anyone else great just retire?
the only things I do know:
- those projections will have errors
- it sucks to be a backlogger and will for years
interesting - I'd add THOME to 2018 - but put Rolen into the short scramble for No. 3....
I'd project
2014 -- Maddux, Thomas, Schilling (Mussina, Glavine, Sosa, Kent, Lofton 1990s backlog)
2015 -- R. Johnson, P. Martinez, Mussina (Glavine, Sosa, Smoltz, Sheffield, Kent, Lofton 1990s backlog)
2016 -- Griffey, Glavine, Sosa, Smoltz (Edmonds, Sheffield, Kent, Lofton 1990s backlog)
2017 -- I. Rodriguez, Ramirez, Edmonds (Posada, V. Guerrero, Sheffield, Kent, Lofton 1990s backlog)
2018 -- Chi. Jones, Thome, Posada (V. Guerroro, Sheffield, Kent, Lofton 1990s backlog)
:)
but we won't be scraping the bottom of the barrel anytime soon...
I ran through the possibilities using the 5 systems I have easy access to (Fangraphs WAR, Baseball-Reference WAR, Baseball Gauge WAR, Win Shares, & WSAB).
I ran through in each system (adding my usual 10% catcher bonus (done as percentage of games caught)starting in 2013 and going through 2018 (including Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Scott Rolen & Bobby Abreu as being 2018 eligibles). Anyway, I won't run through it now in all the details, but I will summarize by how many of the 5 systems each of the players make it into the electable spots through 2018.
ALL 5 SYSTEMS:
Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Maddux, Thomas, Glavine, Johnson, Griffey, Edmonds, Ramirez, Jones, Thome.
4 SYSTEMS:
Biggio, Schilling, Mussina, Martinez, Sheffield, Smoltz, Rodriguez.
3 SYSTEMS:
Rolen
2 SYSTEMS:
Lofton, Kent, Guerrero, Abreu
1 SYSTEM:
Sosa
For the 4 system guys, the pitchers (Schilling, Mussina, Martinez, Smoltz) all fall short using Win Shares.
Biggio falls short in BaseballGauge WAR; Sheffield falls short in BaseballReferenceWAR; Rodriguez falls short in WSAB.
And you are correct in your interpretation, that Posada falls short (using this method) in all five of the metrics used.
I think there is a chance Lofton gets 5%, not because of SABR arguments, but because of the perception that he's clean.
A great contest would be to see who can correctly pick the BBWAA order from first on down. If there were 100 entries, I doubt the winner would even have the first 10 places correct.
Among the interesting highlights contained within:
- Congratulations to the 5 people who have contributed to all 116 elections: Howie Menckel, Rob Wood, John Murphy, Al Peterson... and Mickey Welch. Dan b and Devin have only missed one election, and Ed/Ned Williamson has only not received votes in two elections.
- Only Curt Schilling, Hugh Duffy, George Van Haltren, Ed Williamson, and Jimmy Ryan have received a Score of 40% or higher and not been elected in a future election. Score is points per ballot, expressed as a percentage of a perfect ballot.
- 491 unique players have received at least 1/6th of a vote in our elections (Candy Cummings garnered that partial vote - and no others - in 1898).
- 114 unique voters have cast a ballot in our elections - I think (I could've missed a name change or two over the years). 26 of us have voted in over 100 of these elections, including 22 'active' voters (voted at least once since 2009).
- Just in the last two elections, there have been 40 unique voters - and 54 since 2009. Although the vote totals have been lower the past 3 years, the voters still appear to be out there - just not all together for each election.
- Despite not receiving any votes in 2013, Van Haltren & J.Ryan have still averaged a Score of more than 10% per election since becoming eligible. John McGraw and Dick Lundy were the only two elected to the HOM without hitting a 10% average.
- There is a dip in active HOM players in the 1950s, compared to the active players between 1923 and 1990. I'm wondering if this is a result of dropping from 3 Major Leagues to 2 (counting the NeL as the 3rd) before expansion starts in the 1960s.
Anyways, there might be some interesting stuff for you to take a look at.
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/HallofMerit/
I'm embarrassed to admit that I have no idea who Ben Taylor is. (I'm not a voter, but I enjoy reading the HOM threads from time to time.)
And in Win Shares he squeaks in sometime by 2018 (I forget which year but the post above was summing up everything by system through 2018.
So, as an update, Luis Gonzalez would get in in 1 system and that knocks Scott Rolen out in WS (using said methodology) dropping him to 2 systems.
And (since I'm rambling again about this goofy project I did), here are the yearly results (of newbies only) starting with 2013:
2013: Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Schilling [obviously it already diverges from actual HOM results)
2014: Maddux, Thomas, Glavine
2015: Johnson, Martinez, Mussina
2016: Griffey, Sheffield, Smoltz, Piazza
2017: Ramirez, Rodriguez, Edmonds
2018: Jones, Thome, Rolen [big question on whether these guys will be eligible]
new backlog leaders: Abreu, Guerrero, Kent, Sosa, Lofton
Of course, there is a question of how good the systems are for rating relief pitchers. I tend to be skeptical of their value (on a HOM level) for the most part and don't have any adjustment built in to boost their numbers. I mean, Hoffman certainly had a damn fine career, but... What I should do is plug in Rivera into this system with this crop of players and see how he comes out. Hopefully I'll try that and comment on what happens.
fun stats, Patrick W!
Rivera certainly fares better than Hoffman, and (compared to this group of players) would make it (assuming he doesn't come back as planned this coming season) using WSAB. Using the full 5 systems method discussed above (see comment 57)he comes out between Lofton and ahead of L.Gonzalez.
Joe Jackson was elected almost 90 years ago and Rose over 20 years past. You haven't been paying attention.
How dare you cast aspersions on the sanctity of the Core Four™ and the ringzzz?
Maybe in 2014 we'll elect steroid-hater Frank Thomas and a couple of pantywaist pitchers like Maddux and Glavine!
but i see he also has not made the real hall of fame, either.
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