2015 Prelim

1) Randy Johnson - top 30 player all time, 10th on my list of pitchers; 3rd best LHP ever (Grove, Spahn). Randy Johnson versus Warren Spahn is very, very close.
2) Pedro Martinez - top 50 player all time, ranked just ahead of Steve Carlton, Bob Gibson and Bob Feller
3) John Smoltz - Top 60 player all time. Slots in between Bert Blyleven and Tom Glavine.
4) Curt Schilling - drops to 23rd among pitchers. Ignoring early pitchers he's behind Blyleven, Smoltz, Glavine and Roberts but ahead of Carl Hubbell, Gaylord Perry and Dazzy Vance. Top 75 player in baseball history.
5) Mike Mussina - top 100 player - around even with Gaylord Perry for 30th among pitchers
6) Gary Sheffield - Equivalent to Enos Slaughter, Larry Walker and Roberto Clemente among RF
7) Tommy Bridges - Have been supporting Bridges since the 1970 ballot. Still think he's great.
8) Urban Shocker - gets WWI credit
9) Phil Rizzuto - WWII credit
10) Bus Clarkson - NGL and Mexican league credit
11) Gavy Cravath - minor league credit
12) Luis Tiant
13) Bob Johnson - on every ballot since I started voting in 1968
14) Ben Taylor - how do we induct Palmeiro and Beckley but not Ben Taylor? Taylor has the advantage of being the best 1B in the league and they don't. Great fielder during an era where it mattered quite a bit.
15) Bert Campaneris

16-20) Tony Mullane, Bucky Walters, Dave Bancroft, Hilton Smith, Norm Cash
21-25) Johnny Pesky, Jeff Kent, Dick Redding, Wally Schang, Sammy Sosa
26-30) Don Newcombe, Dave Concepcion, Babe Adams, Tommy Leach, Dizzy Dean

36) Kenny Lofton - I'm not as impressed with CF as the HoM voters are in general. About as good as Andre Dawson and Jim Wynn but they're not PHoM either. Behind Larry Doby and Earl Averill and they're the bottom of my PHoM CF.
53) Bobby Bonds - compares to Kiki Cuyler
58) Buddy Bell - BBREF is wrong, those WAR should be going to SS, not 3B. About even with Ron Cey and Robin Ventura.

Brian Giles - actually slides in around Sammy Sosa
Carlos Delgado - a modern day Boog Powell
Nomar Garciaparra - around 150

What is the source for the WAR? It doesn't line up with B-Ref or FanGraphs. Is it Dan R's?

Looks like this one will be Randy, Pedro and a dogfight for 3rd place b/w Smoltz, Schilling, and Mussina....

My top 5 will be pitchers, interesting. We'll probably vote in an all-pitcher class.

Randy and Pedro are both top ten pitchers all-time by my metric. Schilling, Mussina in the top 30, Smoltz easily clears my PHOM bar.

Rounding out Delgado, Sheffield, Giles, Nomar, Sosa, Lofton, Kent, Tiant, Cravath, Newcombe sounds like a pretty reasonable estimate. But I'll probably deviate from that heavily.

I looked at Smoltz last year when I ran the numbers on Schilling and Mussina. I thought Glavine, Schilling and Mussina were tightly bunched together but Smoltz snuck into the middle of the group anyway. I'll have the three of them Schilling/Smoltz/Mussina. Maybe Schilling will finally get elected this year after being a bridesmaid the last two.

I'm still not sure where Sheffield will place.

Here's what I have on the pitchers by RA+ equivalent record:

Schilling: 227-135, big years bonus score of 50
Mussina: 236-147, big years bonus score of 34
Smoltz: 234-152. big years bonus score of 16

But then Smoltz has the mixed record. That's 211-143 as a starter (and all of those "big years" were as a starter) and 23-9 as a reliever. The system doesn't really apply to relievers; of course his RA+ was way better than the average of all pitchers, but it's not so gaudy when compared to other closers. That's what happens when you pitch one inning at a time. But then closers get some leverage credit.

My overall take: I have Schilling ahead of Mussina, mostly for peak, and I have Smoltz cleanly behind Mussina, and there's probably room to put several non-pitchers in between Smoltz and Mussina.

Ahead of them:

Johnson: 275-192, big years score of 98
Martinez: 218-96, big years score of 91
(For contrast: Koufax: 163-95, big years score of 63)

They're 1-2 on my ballot, probably Johnson 1 and Martinez 2 because I'm kind of a career-leaning voter. But if some of the rest of you put Martinez first, I'll totally understand. I don't expect this to be unanimous.

It's not obvious what I'll do with Sheffield, and he falls outside the scope of some of my older methods.

WAR comes from the eligibles by thread and probably pre-dates the great replacement level reconciliation.

I give Smoltz substantial credit for his excellent 200 postseason innings.

1. Randy Johnson (Mathewson/Seaver)
2. Pedro Martinez (Feller/Spahn)
3/4/5 quite tight:
3. Curt Schilling - leads by regular season, best post season performer, though not the bulk of Smoltz.
4. Mike Mussina - not quite the post season of Smoltz, but better regular season/how much should his gold gloves count?
5. John Smoltz (Ryan/Walsh/Glavine)
6. Gary Sheffield - as high as #3 if you believe his defense was good/adequate or closer to #6 if you put faith in his subpar DRA defensive value.
7. Sammy Sosa - as Dan R mentioned - awesome 2001 season contributes to huge portion of value - above average/all-star level for 7 other seasons, either from early career defensive/baserunning value or later career slugging.
8. Brian Giles - mid-log candidate according to Dan R/DRA, borderline with baseball-reference, outside consideration set by chone WAR... Background from Dan R on the 2012 ballot discussion thread.
9. Buddy Bell - takes the #7 hole as he shows up as either highly impressive or worthy by Dan R, Chone WAR, BBRef WAR, and Baseball Gauge WAR using DRA.
10. Phil Rizzuto - similar to Bell if you give full credit for the WAR and a nudge for the malaria season.
11. Kenny Lofton - slum dunk by BBREF, borderline with DRA, but easily in with Dan R research.
12. Hilton Smith - Alex Smith's take, along with the strong support from seamheads, baseball-fever, and contemporary opinion place him as the most intriguing hurler backlogger.
13. Bert Campaneris - see Dan R research/comments
14. Don Newcombe - Hits the Top 70 in each of my criteria, even arguable as a Top 50 SP by Baseball Gauge and Fangraphs.
15. Tommy Leach - conservative placement as he has outstanding DRA measures, but putrid BBREF, and borderline/but worthy Dan R levels.

Carlos Delgado - reminds me of Fred McGriff - excellent power, middling BB/K rates, limited/zero value from defense/baserunning - Dan S ran ZIPS MLEs and had Delgado as being blocked by the Jays during the championship tenure - if given this value, could he vault to ballot/consideration status for many - I have him on the fringes of the consideration set.

Nomar Garciaparra - felt like a no doubt hall of famer in 2002...he could never overcome injuries after his trade from the Red Sox...sad that a 6x 6 WAR type player falls short...I wonder how he will show up with peak voters (Hello Mark Donelson?)

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/discussion/2012_ballot_discussion/
Posts 10 and 16


Comparing against Chone Smith WAR:


The first big discrepancy regards Giles's offensive value in San Diego. After converting wins to runs and adjusting for the DH where necessary, I have Giles at 242 batting runs above average through 2002, while Sean has him at 230--close enough. From 2003-08, however, I have him at 171 runs above average, while Sean only gives him 141. The fact that a big gap starts opening up right in 2003 suggests that maybe we are using different park factors? I use the multi-year ones from baseball-reference. Another would be if the Padres consistently scored fewer runs than their offensive stats would suggest over that time, since Sean works backwards from team runs whereas I use the same run values for each event across all teams in the same league-season. Here's a breakdown of his 2005, to use one example, in case anyone can catch a flaw in my work:

103 singles * 0.5 + 38 doubles * .72 + 8 triples * 1.04 + 15 home runs * 1.44 + 112 unintentional walks plus hit by pitches * .33 + 9 intentional walks * .25 + 8 sacrifice flies * .37 + + 317 fielded outs * -.106 + 64 strikeouts * -.115 + -3.3 net double plays * -.37 = 111.2 eXtrapolated Runs. Divide by a .92 park factor to get 120.9 XR. He made 317 + 64 + 8 - 3.3 = 385.7 outs. The average NL team that year made 4,143 batting outs, so on an average team, his teammates would have had 3,757.3 batting outs. The league scored .174 runs per batting out, so his teammates would produce 653.8 runs, plus his 120.9 makes 774.7. The average NL team scored 721 runs that year. 774.7 RS and 721 RA gives a Pythagenpat exponent of 1.88 and a winning percentage of .5337. .0337 * 162 games gives 5.5 wins above average, as can be seen in the BWAA1 column above.

The second big discrepancy has to do with fielding. I have him as an average fielder for his career; Sean has him with a poor -48 through 2008. Once again, our numbers line up through the Pittsburgh years, and diverge sharply in San Diego. I show Giles as a +8 fielder from 2004-08; Sean has him at -44. Here the play-by-play stats clearly back me up: Dewan's Plus/Minus puts him at +15 and UZR shows -7. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Fangraphs WAR has Giles at 57.8 for his career, a very close match for my score.


16. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 08, 2011 at 12:58 AM (#3745577)
I neglected to address the minor league credit issue for Giles. I would argue that 1995 was his "make-good" year in the minors (a Szymborski MLE of .369 OBP and .452 SLG), and therefore that he starts deserving minor league credit in 1996. His 1996 Symborski MLE of .378/.533, with corresponding playing time at corner outfield using his 1997-98 fielding rate regressed, say, 1/3 to the mean, comes out as:

SFrac BWAA1 BRWAA1 FWAA1 Rep1 WARP1 LgAdj BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 Rep2 WARP2
0.52 1.3 0.0 0.5 -0.9 2.7 0.941 1.2 0.0 0.5 -0.9 2.5


I also need to credit him for going 5-for-9 with a homer in 1995, which comes out as follows:

SFrac BWAA1 BRWAA1 FWAA1 Rep1 WARP1 LgAdj BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 Rep2 WARP2
0.01 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.3 0.961 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.3


However, this takes no account of the time Giles spent rotting on the Indians' bench. He clearly was good enough to start full-time from 1996-98, but was only used as a platoon player over that time. So here's how I'd fill in the "missing" PA:

1. Take his 1999-2008 SFrac per year as a measure of his "true" durability. That gives 0.95 a season.

2. Credit him with 0.95 SFrac for each 1.00 SFrac he did not play while on major league rosters from 1996-98. This gives a "missing" SFrac of .24 in 1996, .34 in 1997, and .17 in 1998, which translates to 170 "missing" PA in 1996, 236 in 1997 and 118 in 1998.

3. Compare his % of PA vs. RHP from 1996-98 to the rest of his career. In 1996 he had 118 PA vs. RHP and 25 vs. LHP; in 1997 he had 371 vs. RHP and 80 vs. LHP; and in 1998 he had 370 vs. RHP and 60 vs. LHP. For the rest of his career he had 4756 vs. RHP and 2055 vs. LHP, which is 69.8% RHP. So to get him to the same 69.8% ratio for 1996-98, we have to add 100 PA vs. RHP and 70 vs. LHP in 1996; 107 PA vs. RHP and 126 vs. LHP in 1997; and 12 vs. RHP and 106 vs. LHP in 1998.

4. Determine his true platoon split. Using Tangotiger's method, I get Giles' regressed career OBP vs. LHP at 89.33% of his OBP vs. RHP, and his regressed career eXtrapolated Runs/out vs. LHP at 71.65% of his XR/out vs. RHP. (The unregressed ratios are 87.7% and 65.77%).

5. Take his rate of offensive production for the time he did play in 1995-98, which was an OBP of .390 and .262 XR/out while facing 83.9% RHP, and separate it out into platoon splits. At the above ratios, that comes out to a .398 OBP and .275 XR/out vs. RHP, and a .356 OBP and .197 XR/out vs. LHP.

6. Normalize these splits to the corresponding league-seasons. The AL averages for OBP and XR/out from 1996-98 were .350, .340, .340 and .208, .191, and .194. Weighted for Giles's playing time, the overall averages for that period were .341 and .195. So for 1996 we get .398*.35/.341 = a .409 OBP and .275*.208/.195 = .293 XR/out vs. RHP, and a .356*.35/.341 = .365 OBP and .197*.208/.195 = .210 XR/out vs. LHP. Repeating the process, the figures are a .397 OBP and .269 XR/out vs RHP and a .355 OBP and .193 XR/out vs LHP for 1997, and a .397 OBP and .274 XR/out vs RHP and a .355 OBP and .196 XR/out vs LHP in 1998.

7. Fill in the blanks. In 1996 we're adding 100 PA of .409 OBP and .293 XR/out and 70 PA of .365 OBP and .210 XR/out. In 1997 we're adding 107 PA of .397 OBP and .269 XR/Out, and 126 PA of .355 OBP and .193 XR/out. And in 1998 we're adding 12 PA of .397 OBP and .274 XR/out and 106 PA of .355 OBP and .196 XR/out. In total, that's 104 extra outs and 26.7 extra XR in 1996, 146 and 33.0 in 1997, and 76 and 15.4 in 1998.

8. Put him in corner outfield using his 1997-98 fielding rate regressed 1/3 to the mean. Here's what the credit looks like:

Year SFrac BWAA1 BRWAA1 FWAA1 Rep1 WARP1 LgAdj BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 Rep2 WARP2
1996 0.24 0.4 0.0 0.2 -0.4 1.1 0.941 0.4 0.0 0.2 -0.4 1.0
1997 0.34 0.5 0.0 0.3 -0.6 1.4 0.976 0.5 0.0 0.3 -0.5 1.3
1998 0.17 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.984 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.5


...so add it all up, and what do you get??

Brian Giles

Year SFrac BWAA1 BRWAA1 FWAA1 Rep1 WARP1 LgAdj BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 Rep2 WARP2 PennAdd Salary
1995 0.01 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.3 0.961 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.3 0.003 $577,180
1996 0.96 2.8 0.0 0.8 -1.5 5.1 0.941 2.6 0.0 0.8 -1.4 4.8 0.064 $12,999,528
1997 0.98 1.5 0.0 1.0 -1.6 4.1 0.976 1.5 0.0 1.0 -1.6 4.0 0.052 $9,980,000
1998 0.79 1.4 -0.2 1.3 -1.2 3.7 0.984 1.4 -0.2 1.3 -1.2 3.6 0.046 $8,576,624
1999 0.90 4.9 0.2 0.0 -1.4 6.5 0.901 4.5 0.1 0.0 -1.3 5.9 0.081 $17,402,137
2000 0.99 5.9 0.3 0.6 -1.3 8.1 0.918 5.4 0.3 0.5 -1.2 7.4 0.107 $24,609,944
2001 0.99 4.8 0.0 -0.9 -1.2 5.1 0.943 4.6 0.0 -0.9 -1.1 4.8 0.064 $13,132,441
2002 0.94 7.1 -0.1 -1.6 -1.0 6.3 0.938 6.7 -0.1 -1.5 -0.9 5.9 0.082 $17,731,134
2003 0.89 4.5 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 4.6 0.952 4.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 4.4 0.057 $11,377,237
2004 1.03 4.2 0.4 1.0 -1.0 6.6 0.950 4.0 0.4 0.9 -0.9 6.2 0.087 $19,014,571
2005 0.99 5.5 -0.2 0.8 -1.0 7.0 0.979 5.4 -0.2 0.8 -1.0 6.9 0.098 $22,132,947
2006 1.04 1.6 -0.1 0.4 -1.0 2.9 0.979 1.6 -0.1 0.4 -1.0 2.8 0.035 $6,095,233
2007 0.80 1.2 0.5 -1.1 -0.8 1.3 0.979 1.1 0.4 -1.1 -0.7 1.2 0.014 $2,036,785
2008 0.95 3.9 0.2 -0.3 -0.9 4.7 0.979 3.9 0.1 -0.3 -0.9 4.6 0.061 $12,274,036
TOTL 12.26 49.6 0.8 1.4 -14.8 66.3 0.947 47.3 0.5 1.3 -14.1 62.8 0.851 $177,939,797


Well, that's certainly a Hall of Famer. It's somewhere between Zack Wheat and Al Simmons.

What is the source for the WAR? It doesn't line up with B-Ref or FanGraphs.

WAR comes from the eligibles by thread and probably pre-dates the great replacement level reconciliation.

DL is correct. I posted that list on Feb. 3, 2012, a couple months before the change, IIRC. I'll try to get the 2017 eligible list together soon.

Don't know how much this is worth, but interesting that Hilton Smith was picked 4th(!) out of this entire group:

http://kcbbh.blogspot.com/2014/01/integrating-segregated-era-with-strat-o.html?spref=tw

Look at the results of the fake season - Hilton Smith is only on one leaderboard and it's for avoiding walks.

A very quick look for 2015 (last 3 years in parentheses) -

1) Randy Johnson (new)
2) Pedro Martinez (new)

Pedro, at his peak, may have been the best pitcher in the history of organized baseball. Johnson has a slightly less transcendent peak and far more shoulder value. It pains me not to put Pedro #1, but this is the Hall of Merit.

3) Curt Schilling (NA-5-4)
4) Mike Mussina (NA-NA-5)
5) John Smoltz (new)

Smoltz's relief pitching is extraordinary. He's only a whisker behind Schilling and Mussina in my book.

6) Gary Sheffield (new)

Would be #3 had he been average on defense, but I believe (having seen it firsthand!) that his defense really was as wretched as most metrics indicate.

7) Adolfo "Dolf" Luque (1-6-6)
8) Wally Schang (2-7-7)
9) Sammy Sosa (NA-9-12) - I'm now convinced he was a plus defender. Barely behind Sheffield.
10) Tommy John (3-8-8)
11) Ben Taylor (off-off-9)
12) Nomar Garciaparra (new)

The peak stands out that wide: six 6+ WAR seasons at shortstop in seven years. He doesn't need any more value. Comparable, but superior to, Lou Boudreau once Boudreau's 1943-45 are discounted for the war.

13) Hilton Smith (4-10-10)
14) Buddy Bell (7-11-11) - reappraised and slightly demoted
15) Jeff Kent (NA-NA-off)

Belongs on the ballot; not only does he have a reverse career arc, but he was actually an OK/average 2B defender in SF. His "sieve" phase didn't begin until his move to Houston (and, of course, his late career is freshest in the electorate's mind).

Brian Giles is a dead ringer for Bob Johnson; Giles was a slightly worse defender with a slightly higher hitting peak. I'm not much for the "extra credit" arguments for Johnson, and I doubt I will be for Giles.

Carlos Delgado comes out in a tie with Norm Cash, with more offensive value (about 1000 extra PA & equivalent rate stats) but less defensive value. Both are behind Fred McGriff.

It looks as if Luis Tiant, Lee Smith, and Kenny Lofton will all fall off.

Thanks for getting this started, DL. Are there any plans to create individual threads for the top newcomers? If so, it would be a good idea to launch them before pitchers and catchers report.

Thanks for reminding me. Will do soon.

Reminder - we're alternating "elect 3" and "elect 4" years for the near future

2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2036-37, 2039, 2041 are elect 4

If I make the 2041 election I'll be thrilled since I'll probably be retired. The MMP project should go until 2021, possibly 2024 if we want to add 1870-1900. Then we can try the manager/executive project unless someone has a better idea.

So, if I want to submit a ballot, how formal must my ranking system be?

Can I just rate the guys mentioned in the intro, or do I have to go deeper into the backlog?

What's the deadline?

Thanks!

I just listed my "above the line" votes for 2013, Snapper.

I just listed my "above the line" votes for 2013, Snapper.

Thanks. I don't see your votes in this thread? Is there another?

I think a new voter should look at the top 50 returning players plus the top 7 from this year. I have >150 players ranked now but I didn't the first time I voted. What really matters is determing what "merit" means to you - if that's career, peak, prime, etc.

Deadline is Thanksgiving 2014.

IF you click on the "Hall of Merit" banner at the top it will take you to the index page for all previous HOM discussions. I jumped into the conversation here...

I think a new voter should look at the top 50 returning players plus the top 7 from this year. I have >150 players ranked but I didn't the first time I voted.

Deadline is Thanksgiving 2014.

You mean 10 months from now? Well, that gives me some time.

Yes, this is a once-a-year vote now. I should say not only do I have ~200 players ranked among the eligibles but I have rankings for all the HoM players who have been elected. This took quite a while and is helpful but not necessary to contribute. About 80 players were mentioned on at least one ballot last year. If you get all of those ranked you're doing great.

15) Bert Campaneris

Nomar Garciaparra - around 150

I realize that Campy has become fashionable around these parts of late, and perhaps for good reason, but I am pretty shocked at the gap here. I mean there are plenty of people, SS's included, in the Hall who never had anything close to Nomar's peak. You essentially trade a lot of MVP-quality seasons for a lot of 3.5 seasons in choosing the latter over the former.

I am a career voter.

Hmm, I'm like Snapper. I'd like to contribute, but in the past the backlog has seemed overwhelming when it comes to creating a ballot. Maybe I'll do what Sam did. I'd like to vote, especially if I can come up with a way to justify Pedro over Johnson (which would make me a peak voter, but then I already knew I'd be one of those).

Some comments as we get closer to election time. I've re-read some of the old discussion threads.

- My top six are set.
Randy over Pedro. Johnson's 1993-2004 prime is 2550 innings at ERA+ 166(!!). Putting Pedro #1 is sloppy analysis, implying that Johnson's 1988-92 and 2005-09 have zero value.

Schilling/Mussina/Smoltz, though they're so tightly bunched that any order is defensible.

Sheffield #6.

Luque down. In the Grimes/Luque thread, there's vigorous debate over whether Luque was held back by racism or was just a late bloomer. His Cuban League record, while strong, is pretty clearly inferior to Jose Mendez.

Garciaparra down. I still believe he's comparable to Lou Boudreau and Dobie Moore, but his career is so short that it's tough to keep him on-ballot.

Sosa down. On hitting alone, he's a dead ringer for Chuck Klein, whom we're in no hurry to induct. It's entirely a question of whether his gaudy defensive WAR totals through 1997 accurately reflect his value.

Schang and Taylor (both clear Hall of Merit members in my mind) holding.

Spots #7-15 now look like:
Schang
Taylor
Luque
John
Hilton Smith
Sosa
Kent
Lee Smith
Buddy Bell
(Nomar #16)

I took another look at Hugh Duffy, but he's essentially done at age 31. His career shape looks an awful lot like Dale Murphy's.

Quick edit: Bell #14, Lee Smith #15.

#16-20: Nomar, Tiant, Lofton, Rizzuto, Bonds pere.

Was wondering what the various members of the electorate think of George Uhle's candidacy? Both Baseball-Reference & Fangraphs seem to like Uhle's combination of pitching & offense (86 OPS+). Adjusting for WWI & the 154 game schedule, Baseball Reference* accords Uhle with 59.1 WAR over his career & 37 WAR over his best 5 non-consecutive seasons, which seems to compare well with more popular backlog candidates--and fellow contemporaries--Burleigh Grimes (56.8; 35.2) & Urban Shocker (63.1; 37).

I ask because until looking at BR's career leaderboards I don't recall ever considering Uhle before; in fact, I'm not sure I had heard of George Uhle (yes, reading up on him, now). So, I was just curious if some of you had him among your consideration set & where--or if not, why not?

* Didn't include Fangraphs comparison 'cause it doesn't seem to like Shocker.

George Uhle is 70th on my list right near Nap Rucker, Chuck Finley, Lon Warneke, Vic Willis and Orel Hershiser. Good but not quite enough.

Anyone have any thoughts regarding Orlando Hernandez's worthiness? El Duque's MLB career looks very similar to Reuschel's age-32 and later plus good postseason numbers. But what I don't know is if anyone has tried to project his pre-MLB numbers. I figure he's a borderline candidate at best but I'm intrigued.

DL - Could you do me a favor and explain what the "great replacement level reconciliation" is? My guess is that it's all the guys who actually work up WAR systems agreeing on just where the Replacement Rate is for WAR purposes, but I don't know even that, much less what the eventual number turned out to be. Thanks in advance, Brock Hanke

Brock - click through the link

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/unifying-replacement-level/

My prelim ballot for 2015. I'm pitcher-heavy, and I'm not sure what that says about me, the HoM, the candidates or anything else. They were all really good pitchers though.

1. Randy Johnson I grew up an Expos fan, so Pedro was a personal favourite, but Randy is a pretty easy call at #1. His peak is almost as dominant as Pedro's and he has a lot more prime value. Second-most Cy Youngs ever, with 5, plus two runners-up to Clemens, I believe. I missed too much of the original HoM project to accurately rank him among all-time pitchers right now, but I think he's safely in the top 10.

2. Pedro Martinez From '97-'02 he was just so dominant. It doesn't really matter what else he did, that stretch was enough to get him into my PHOM (and probably the regular HoM). Just not quite enough longevity/durability to match Randy.

3. Mike Mussina
4. Curt Schilling A virtual tie. Schilling's best seasons look a little better to me, Mussina's got more consistency. Mussina had some good postseason performances, Schilling's 2001 was maybe the most valuable playoff performance ever. Tough to parse out, but Mussina's sustained excellence just lifts him over Schilling. I think both are eventually worthy, though.

5. (N)Ed Williamson Long overlooked. Forget the big and dubious home-run season; Williamson was consistently among the top infielders in baseball in his era. Hopefully it's not too late for him.

6. Gary Sheffield Best of the new hitting candidates, but in my mind a definite step below the pitchers. Great hitter, but the era and his fielding bring him back toward the pack.

7. Ben Taylor Still a measure of uncertainty about Taylor for me. Do I have him too high? Too low? Could be either, but I'm more and more convinced that he was one of the best at his position for his time, and that will generate consideration from me, even if it's due to a talent drought.

8. Sammy Sosa
9. Bobby Bonds Another close one, similar players decades apart. Sosa has a couple of MVP-type years which I like. Both sit pretty close to the borderline as far as I'm concerned.

10. John Smoltz Doesn't look as good as the rest of his pitching cohort on this ballot. I'm not a reliever booster, so his years closing don't do much for me, although it is nice that he was in a productive role during that time period.

11. Dagoberto CampanerisDan R's arguments got me on his case. I'm still not sure how strongly I feel about Campaneris, but comparing him to other shortstops from his era he does look better than raw numbers suggest.

12. Gavvy Cravath No minor-league credit, though for a mostly prime voter I'm not sure that it matters much. Maybe he'd move up a couple of spots and join the Sosa-Bonds club.

13. Vic Willis Not the best of his time, and maybe a product of his defence. Still, very good for quite awhile outdistances the other ballot contenders.

14. Hugh Duffy Some great years, but I don't see that he's all that far ahead of van Haltren or Ryan, all of whom are trying to break out of HOVG status.

15. Sal Bando I used to be a big Bando booster, but the Dan R's Campaneris discussion has led me to re-evaluate. I still believe he's worthy of consideration, and may climb my ballot again someday, but for now he takes a back seat to the pitchers and his shortstop.

Disclosures:
Kenny Lofton: An underappreciated career, but not enough truly standout seasons for a peak/prime voter. Around 25th.
Jeff Kent: A couple of very good years, but not quite enough bulk in the prime to match Bando or Campaneris. Just off ballot (about 17, I think - I didn't rank order below my ballot).
Luis Tiant: I just don't see enough peak there for Tiant to really challenge my ballot. Between 25 and 30.
Buddy Bell: Same story as above. Good for a very long time, but just not enough great seasons to crack my prime-heavy ballot. 25-30 range.
Phil Rizzuto: I'm stingier with war credit than other voters, which hurts Rizzuto. Even so, I don't see enough in the years he did play - he was clearly overshadowed by other shortstops of the time. He's just a slight cut above Bell for me.

Shouldn't we have enough data for players who have competed in both the Cuban League and MLB to run some quick-and-dirty translations?

Hey guys, I guess it's time to schedule this thing ...

I guess the options would be to vote November 24 - December 8, or to vote from December 1-15.

Does ending on a Monday work? I think last year we ended on a Wednesday, but I cannot remember if that was because of my schedule or one of the counters. I should be able to accommodate whatever works for the ballot counters.

Any other issues I should be aware of? Once we set the dates, I'll send an email out to the Yahoo group.

--Joe

I suggest the earlier date out of your two options. We can always grant an extension if requested/necessary.

2014 MMP will wrap up on 12/3.

Figured a prelim is in order since we're closing in on the election.

Anyway, this formerly dedicated Win Shares voter now has a system that spits out docWAR:
• Based in BBREF WAR
• Includes DRA (2/3 strength) + rfield (1/3 strength) except for catchers where it’s 50/50 or anyone before 1893
• Adjusts for schedule, usage patterns for catchers, STDEV of league (WAA/PA or WAA/IP), usage patterns for pitchers, relief appearances pre-PBP, relief value during PBP era (via WPA integration), OF arms (which DRA doesn’t handle as well as BBREF does IMO), fielding in Coors, Old Yankee left field, and Fenway left field, and probably other stuff I’m forgetting, yadda yadda yadda

Thanks to including Glavine, Mussina, Maddux, Thomas last time, my consensus score was somewhere in the somewhat normal range. Perhaps this year I’ll make a return to the bottom of the list. Though I doubt I'll ever be of Yestian or Magnusian calibre.

I’ve taken a cursory look at the HOM’s balance across eras and positions. It appears that that we could use a couple more guys whose careers centered in the deadball era, whose careers started in the 1940s, and who got under way in the 1970s and 1980s. In addition, we are a tad shy on catchers, in need of third basemen, and lacking a few starting pitchers. This is not information that makes my decisions, but if needed, I’ll find it useful as a guide.

I don’t really care whether there’s a whole mess of 1970s third basemen and no 1970s shortstops, just as I don’t mind that there were a mess of shortstops in the 1890s and 1900s…and almost no third basemen. Sometimes an era just tilts toward or away from a position.

With that said…, here’s my 2014 prelim. Which we could call the Got Pitchers? ballot

1. Randy Johnson: I’ve got him as a top-10 pitcher ever. That plays.
2. Pedro Martinez: In the top 12-15 ever. That’s also pretty good.
3. Curt Schilling: Roughly the same career value as Mussina but a significant advantage in peak/prime value, which I like.
4. Mike Mussina: He and Schilling are this close. Both are top 25 pitchers ever.
5. John Smoltz: We got a lot of good pitchers in the pipeline. Smoltz wasn’t consistently dominant like the guys above him. His relief work gets some help from my WPA-reliever adjustments, and he could hit a little to boot. But more of a career-oriented guy.
6. Buddy Bell: Very similar career though not hitting style as HOMer Graig Nettles. Easily the best 3B not in the HOM.
7. Thurman Munson: Brings the D, has a bat, hangs tough with the other 1970s catchers. I like him a bit more than HOMer Brenshan and significantly more than HOMer Freehan.
8. Wally Schang: Not much in the peak department, but tons of career value for a catcher.
9. Kenny Lofton: A top-fifteenish CF. DRA actually dislikes him more than rfield, so this is more conservative than a straight WAR vote would deliver.
10. Bobby Veach: New to my ballot. He’s the Jimmy Sheckard of the 1910s AL—a fantastic fielder in a time when LF was a much more important defensive position (more balls hit there, like a second CF in the sense that 3Bs were like second shortstops, see Wizardry for more on this), and his bat is strong as well. A top-15 or so player in LF for me.
11. Luis Tiant: Same exact peak/prime value as Reuschel but with less career value. He and Shocker are pretty close together, both just inside the top 3/4s of pitchers.
12. Urban Shocker: Marichal with less peak…or Saberhagen with a little more.
13. Tommy Leach: DRA loves this guy at both 3B and CF. In fact, all systems rate him as very good to outstanding. At 3B he’d be a top-15 among eligibles, nearly so in centerfield.
14. Vic Willis: Easily within the 3/4s of all pitchers, which makes him an easy vote for me.
15. Art Fletcher: DRA just loves this guy, which gets him into the voteable range.


Sammy Sosa and Bobby Bonds: He and Bobby Bonds are extremely close in value and shape. I like Sosa’s peakiness a little more than Bonds’ steadiness. They stack up right on the borderline for me and could go either way, but they are currently behind these other guys in my pecking order.

Jeff Kent: Not as strong as I’d thought he’d be. Defense has something to do with that, but also he was rarely great. I’ve got two fringe-MVP years, 1 All-Star year, and one very-nearly-All-Star year then lots of 3 and 4 win seasons.

I forgot Sheffield on my prelim. So here's the new scoop:

1. Randy Johnson
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Curt Schilling
4. Mike Mussina
5. John Smoltz
6. Buddy Bell
7. Gary Sheffield: Absolutely awful defender. Shoulda been a 1B all the way. Great bat, though!
8. Thurman Munson
9. Wally Schang
10. Kenny Lofton
11. Bobby Veach
12. Luis Tiant
13. Urban Shocker
14. Tommy Leach
15. Vic Willis

Art Fletcher: Wish I had the room!

Any comments on the required disclosures?

Hey DL ... don't want to interfere with the MMP. So what dates work best for that? Would you want more eyeballs on that election by having the Hall of Merit election run concurrently? Or would you rather us push to the later date to make it easier?

DL, please see #39. I was just reshuffling because I forgot Sheffield.

Would rather have you push later but either way works.

Required disclosures (top 10 returnees): Phil Rizzuto, Ben Taylor

Preliminary 2015 Ballot - Position Players Only

Ballot system
1. I use DRA for fielding value.
2. For catchers in the Retrosheet era, I include Max Marchi's estimated game calling runs. For pre-Retrosheet catchers, I include the average estimated game calling runs for all catchers with at least the same career length in the Marchi dataset.
3. I adjust for season length by prorating from the number of scheduled games to half the difference between that number and 162.
4. For overall player value, I use the Hall of Stats method of calculating a Hall Rating: WAR + WAA * 1.79 for all seasons with positive WAA. Hall Rating is adjusted so the worst player in the HOM scores at 100.
5. To account for competition adjustments over time, I fit a curve to the Hall Rating of white players based on their mid-career seasons, as they are the one constant talent pool available throughout history. (Michael Humphreys uses this method for DRA in Wizardry.) This curve most negatively affects players whose careers were centered between 1912 and 1948, which is consistent with an artificially watered down talent pool due to segregation.
6. My preliminary ballot does not yet have positional adjustments, though I am calculating those.

Information listed after player's name includes Hall Rating, percentile rank in my personal Hall of Merit, and the players above and below him at his position.

1. Gary Sheffield - 147 (65) - Kaline/Rose
2. Ben Taylor - 132 (52) - McGwire/Start
3. Bernie Williams - 128 (46) - Hamilton/R. Smith
4. Brian Giles - 128 (45) - Waner/V. Guerrero
5. Tony Phillips - 127 (44) - Cano/Utley
6. Jose Cruz - 125 (42) - Berkman/White
7. John Olerud - 125 (41) - Start/W. Clark
8. Javier Lopez - 124 (40) - McCann/Bennett
9. Sammy Sosa - 123 (40) - Suzuki/Gwynn
10. Buddy Bell - 122 (39) - Wilson/Santo
11. Fred Dunlap - 122 (38) - Utley/Kent
12. Kenny Lofton - 121 (37) - R. Smith/Gore
13. Luke Easter - 121 (36) - W. Clark/Suttles
14. Roy White - 121 (34) - Cruz/Simmons
15. Jeff Kent - 119 (31) - Dunlap/Biggio

Required disclosures
Phil Rizzuto has a Hall Score of 80, which places him about #300 all time for position players near several shortstops: Jim Fregosi, Germany Smith, Johnny Pesky, Dave Bancroft, and Tony Fernandez. This is with Rizzuto getting war credit.

Thanks, DL.

I am applying war credit at the player's career average by season. Rizzuto ranks between Vern Stephens and Roger Peckinpaugh for me, which puts him below the line.

I have never voted for Taylor even way back when. Just doesn't have enough peak for my tastes, though I respect his career length.

When do we vote?

Also, here's my 2015 preliminary vote.

I use a sort of prime>peak>career number with measurements including relative league standing by playing time with a strong preference for players who had good in-season durability (non-exclusive). Combined with rate stats and an admittedly subjective glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. My general baseball philosophy may help in clarifying my rankings. I don't believe in the single stat theory of baseball, meaning I don't use WS or any flavour of WAR in my rankings, although I do lean towards the statistical bent of the BP catalog. Essentially, I follow this concept as I think a significant percentage of what contributes to winning baseball is not necessarily counted in box scores. This includes things like manager's prerogative (elective actions - steal signs, pinch hitters, batting order, pitching changes, etc.), and actions that would require a historical PBP analysis that is currently unavailable.

I also prefer what I consider "total ballplayers", guys who can do it all. I believe in positional representation and abhor the thought process that says that relievers were all failed starters and 2B are all failed SS, etc... A team cannot win without a 2B (Also not an easy position for longevity), nor without someone in LF. When I look at a player's career, I try to ask myself how I would feel about him as his manager/general manager - would his presence require special tactics to protect him, or is he completely reliable? I hope it can be seen by my rankings that the "reliable" players generally rise above the ones with clear holes in their games. There are always exceptions, but this is what I have. The stats I look at to get here tend to be traditional and rate, both offensive and defensive. Contemporary opinion also helps. I find comprehensive ranking systems to be exclusive of much of what I see on the field of play - that is, the narrative of the game. The stats for me represent measurements of aspects of the game, but beyond that, the narrative has to fill out the gaps. i.e. - Why was this number lower than expected and that number higher? Combining the stats with the narrative gives me a baseball world-view that I am happy with and feel qualified to discuss.

I fully credit military and Negro League time, but am very reluctant to provide minor league credit for anyone past the advent of the Live Ball era.

1) Randy Johnson
2) Pedro Martinez
3) Curt Schilling
4) John Smoltz
5) Mike Mussina
((5a) Tom Glavine ))
((5b) Craig Biggio))
6) Hugh Duffy
7) Tommy Bridges
8) Ben Taylor
9) Sammy Sosa
10) Kirby Puckett
11) Dale Murphy
12) Gary Sheffield
13) Jeff Kent
14) Carlos Delgado
15) Lefty Gomez
______________
16) Dick Redding
17) Vern Stephens
18) Bus Clarkson
19) Nomar Garciaparra
20) Fred McGriff
21) Gavvy Cravath
22) Bob Johnson
23) Tony Oliva
24) Dizzy Dean
((24a)Andre Dawson))
25) Orlando Cepeda
26) Bobby Veach
27) Al Oliver
28) Don Mattingly
29) Albert Belle
30) Rocky Colavito

Disclosures: Lofton (70), Tiant (outside of top 100, 11th among eligible SPs), Bonds (not in top 100, 9th among eligible RFs), Bell (41), Rizzuto (48)

Correction, Tiant is 36. Misread my spreadsheet.

OK, based on DL's comments, I think running the election December 1-15 works. Does that work for the ballot counters?

I'm OK with that.

I can help count the ballots if need be.

Has someone been compiling the number of Hall of Merit and/or Fame IP/PA (or AB) for each season, or even better, as a percentage of league IP/PA (or AB)? If so, I would love a way to get those numbers ... thanks in advance!

--Joe

OCF and Ardo - thanks!

Hi, All!

First Preliminary Ballot places the newcomers. I haven't reviewed the backlog yet. I hope to do a bit more than cut-and-paste from last year, but we'll see . . .

1. Randy Johnson. Easy #1.
2. Pedro Martinez. At his best, he was the best ever. If Johnson hadn't been nearly as good and hugely durable, Pedro would be a deserving number one.
3. Curt Schilling. Not close to Pedro. Ever so slightly ahead of Mussina. BBWAA has no clue what makes a great pitcher.
4. Mike Mussina. Very evidently deserving. See Schilling comment.
5. John Smoltz. Trails Mussina by the equivalent of two-all star seasons, so the gap between 4 & 5 is substantial. But Smoltz is still clearly deserving.
6. Gary Sheffield. What a hitter! The key question is just how bad his fielding was, and the metrics disagree by up to 13 fielding wins. If someone could convince me which one was right, he would move up or down. This placement is basically an average of the alternatives.
7. Buddy Bell. No disagreement about the fact that he was a great fielder.
8. Sammy Sosa. Great peak, just enough career.
9. Bert Campaneris. The best of the 60s-70s shortstops.
10. Kenny Lofton. Underrated.
11. Jim McCormick. Has the view of 1880s pitchers shifted dramatically again in the last 12 months? Inquiring minds want to know!
12. Bobby Bonds. Solid prime.
13. Luis Tiant. Last deserving 1960s-70s pitcher.
14. Urban Shocker. Had he lived and pitched two more years, there'd be no doubt.
15. Phil Rizzuto. I'm convinced on the quality of his defense. If I gave malaria credit as well as war credit, he'd be around the middle of the ballot, probably.

Next 15

16. Kevin Appier
17. Vic Willis
18. Ted Breitenstein
19. Robin Ventura
20. Gavvy Cravath
21. Jeff Kent
22. Ben Taylor
23. Fred Dunlap
24. Norm Cash
25. Sal Bando
26. Bernie Williams
27. Chet Lemon
28. Orel Hershiser
29. Bob Johnson
30. Ned Williamson

Joe,

Within the Hall of Merit Group on Yahoo, in the 'Files' section there's a folder entitled 'HOM Election History'. Within that folder, I posted a 2014 update to my original excel file after last year's election.

In the excel file, look for a tab called 'HOM by Yr', which provides a tabulation of HOM'ers per year. It's just a count, not by AB/IP, but it sounds like close to what you're looking for. I added a breakdown by general position (P, C, IF, OF) to the current version, and there's a graph visualizing the data at the bottom of the sheet.

Take a look and let me know if you have any questions or suggestions for improvement (note, IP/AB would take a fair amount of time to add).

Yardape, Dr. Chaleeko, Rawagman, Chris Cobb...where does Brian Giles fit in your ranks...even if not in Top 15, he should make it in the consideration set:

Check out Dan R's Giles evaluation, but an alternative look:

Top 15 or so FG WAR eligible: offensive value/defense, then zeroing out negative WAR seasons with schedule adjustments for season length, Top 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 totals
Buddy Bell - 83/224 - 66.6 - 9.9/23.1/34.4/42.3/49.5/56.3
Gary Sheffield - 590/-306 - 65.5 - 7.5/20.6/32/40.4/47.8/53.9
Kenny Lofton - 194/146 - 65.3 - 9.2/22.0/32.8/42.2/50.4/57.0
Sammy Sosa - 310/-3 - 64 - 9.9/22.8/34.0/44.6/54.4/59.6

Joe Tinker - -6/312 - 60.5 - 8.0/18.1/27.5/36.7/45.4/53.3
Tony Perez - 264/-78 - 60.5 - 8.2/20.2/30.3/38.6/45.5/51.6 - note two best seasons 1969/1970 coincide with expansion - maybe overrated or not fully adjusted for/see Dan R info
Fred McGriff - 427/-188 - 60 - 6.7/19.7/30.7/38.8/46.0/51.9
John Olerud -331/-44 - 59.1 - 8.1/22/31.2/39.9/46.6/51.3
Ron Cey - 222/48 - 58.4 - 6.6/18.9/30.1/40.3/49.0/54.5
Robin Ventura - 131/173 - 58.3 - 7.3/19.2/30.1/40.4/48.2/52.8
Bobby Bonds - 303/-36 - 58 - 7.4/19.8/30.6/40.6/48.6/55.7
Jeff Kent - 266/4 - 57.7 - 7.4/18.5/27.6/35.5/42.9/49.4
Bob Johnson - 342/-54 - 57.5 - 6.6/18.1/27.7/36.2/44.3/51.7 - potential for minor league credit but may be overrating war years especially great 1944.
Sal Bando - 194/71 - 57.2 - 7.7/20.4/31.7/41.4/49.3/55.5 - see Tony Perez like peak following expansion

Brian Giles - 382/-81 - 56.2 - 6.7/19.7/30.9/40/48.3/53.6 - had Giles not been playing for one of the most stacked offenses of all-time he likely wouldn't have toiled in AAA mashing and been able to accrue 5 or more WAR...if so, Giles might slide in to a group just below Bell/Sheffield/Lofton/Sosa.

Bleed the Freak, what system are those WAR numbers from? Are those Dan R's numbers?

I've been working on Giles, and so far I have him a little bit below Jeff Kent. At this point, I am not giving him minor-league credit.

The WAR numbers quoted above are from Fangraphs.
From what I gather, If you are to remove Dan's bonus credit for being blocked in the minors, he moves into the gray area of worthy candidates.
Giles bests Kent head to head in FG WAR, but Kent has the edge in BBR.
If you are a believer in Dewan's +/-, then Giles gets a boost as Dan notes above.

Thanks Patrick, I'll take a look!

Something just jumped out at me. What's the disconnect, in terms of Sheffield WS/WAR. That's an insanely high WS, or low WAR total relative to each other. It's not like had tons of year of below replacement but above WS replacement value either. What's going on there?

Without looking at my copy of WS at home, I assume that Sheffield, like other monster bat/lousy fielders, does not get dinged for defense NEARLY as much on WS, since the WS system still only gives positive credit for playing the field.

PHoM is Johnson, Martinez, Smoltz this year. My PHoM backlog looks like this

1) Frank Thomas
2) Gary Sheffield
3) Craig Biggio
4) Bert Campaneris
5) Tony Mullane
6) Bucky Walters
7) Dave Bancroft
8) Brian Giles
9) Hilton Smith
10) Earl Averill
11) Edgar Martinez
12) Johnny Pesky
13) Jeff Kent
14) Wally Schang
15) Sammy Sosa

Everything from Campaneris on is bunched pretty tightly. I tend to err toward group consensus so I might re-evaluate and jump down to Averill when my next backlog PHoM spot comes open.

My biggest PHoM mistake has to be Virgil Trucks but I still like him better than Bob Lemon.

Just noticed I haven't done PHoM on Mussina yet. He's #1.

Assuming we have mostly the same voters I will state that Schilling will finish ahead of Mussina so it looks like Schilling v Smoltz for the last slot.

Hello everyone,

I'm new around here (just registered), although I found out about the Hall of Merit during the whole Jack Morris thing and I've been lurking for a while. In the interim, I assembled my own system for evaluating players and feel like I'm ready to take the plunge; should I post my ballot here?

Yes, post your ballot here first. After a few days allowing others to comment, you can then post it to the official ballot thread. Also, welcome. It's always great to get new blood.

Welcome, Harvest. The prelim posting of the ballot is designed as much for you as anything.

which is to say, if you seem to have certain preferences - such as peak v prime v career - then a vote leaning toward one sector might lead to a question about whether so-and-so was also worth a shot in that vein. and you may clarify that such player didn't make it for another sensible reason. a key goal is that you will be more comfortable with your ballot after discussion....

All right, here's my ballot and a bit of methodology. I use Baseball-Reference's data (bWAA and bWAR) as jumping off points, and I include terms for career, prime and peak, although I weight peak slightly less heavily than the other two. I give credit for catching on a basis of games caught, in order to take into account the higher defensive workload and shorter careers of catchers, and I give relievers some credit on a basis of shutdowns and meltdowns (although not many relievers pass my test for Hall-worthiness). I give war and strike credit, although I err on the side of caution except when there are clear indicators as to what a player would have been worth that season (e.g. extrapolating the strike-shortened seasons of the '90s to 162 games). In terms of early players, I also perform some adjustments based on significant rule changes, such as the number of balls for a walk and the distance from the mound to home plate. I give a pitcher credit for good peripherals, but don't deduct points unless their peripherals were absolutely horrid compared to their outward value (e.g. Jim Palmer). Lastly, if a player had seasons late in their career that would have lowered their Hall-worthiness, I treat them as if they had retired after their last productive season. So, without further ado:

1. Randy Johnson - Clear #1, 5th best pitcher of all time behind Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux.
2. Pedro Martinez - Beaten by Randy on longevity, in most years would top my ballot. 11th best pitcher of all time.
3. Curt Schilling - Very close to both Smoltz and Mussina but gets the nod due to a longer and more consistent prime.
4. John Smoltz - Reliever credit pushes him past Mussina
5. Mike Mussina
6. Kenny Lofton - I wasn't around to see him in his glory years, so I'll trust B-R regarding his defensive abilities. The last sure-fire inductee on this ballot according to my model, he's closest in value among Hall of Merit CF to Billy Hamilton.
7. Sammy Sosa - Helped by one amazing peak year in 2001
8. Jim McCormick - My model's favourite old-time player; I view him as better than guys like Tony Mullane and Tommy Bond as he played at a slightly later time, when the game was more established, and he was in the majors for essentially his whole career. Retired early but 500+ innings per year are nothing to be sneezed at, even if the game was different back then.
9. Vic Willis - McCormick-lite. Compares fairly well to modern Hall-worthy pitchers in everything but peripherals.
10. Luis Tiant
11. Buddy Bell - He and Bando are nearly identical in my model; Bell gets the nod because of his slightly better career value. Both compare well with contemporary Darrell Evans, who is already in the Hall.
12. Sal Bando
13. Doc Gooden - Dominant peripherals and his one perfect season get him on the ballot, run-of-the-mill otherwise. Kids, don't do drugs.
14. Kevin Appier - Another peak-oriented candidate. Extending his 1994 and 1995 to 162 games pushes him just barely across my Hall-worthiness threshold.
15. Gary Sheffield - Atrocious fielder but more than made up for it with the bat. Best career numbers among hitters along my Hall cut line gets him onto my ballot.

Other guys my model rates as Hall-worthy:
16. Bobby Bonds - Essentially Dewey Evans with slightly less career value
17. Thurman Munson
18. Brian Giles
19. Tommy John
20. Eddie Cicotte

Required disclosures and other notable new guys:
21. Jeff Kent - Peak numbers are good, but prime and career are both just a tad shy of what I like to see in a Hall-worthy player. Him and John Olerud are the two closest guys to the Hall in my model that miss the cut.
55. Phil Rizzuto - I'm judicious with war credit, as I'm generally not too keen on extrapolating over large blocks of time. Even in the years that he did play, he didn't have enough of a peak to really stand out.
61. Nomar Garciaparra - If only he hadn't hit the wall at age 30. His peak holds up well; a few more 3 or 4 win seasons and he would have been in for sure.
74. Ben Taylor - I'm probably a lot more bearish on him than most around here, for the same reason why I'm not a fan of the Scooter: there's just not very much data to go by, and the major league estimates that I've seen of him are nothing special (going by my admittedly crude method of translating win shares into WAA and WAR). My model has all of the deserving Negro Leaguers already inducted.
98. Carlos Delgado - Bat-only first basemen have to be pretty special in order to meet my Hall criteria, and Delgado was not.

That's bold slotting Randy Johnson ahead of Lefty Grove as best LHP.

If you weren't around to see Lofton play you're clearly one of the younger voters here. One exercise I recommend is to run past HoM players through your system to see if you have been fair to all positions and eras. I'd suggest that as a next step. Using BBREF WAR can bias against SS and toward 3B, for example. Overall it looks good. I wouldn't worry too much about not having any players from 1920-1960 since we've overrepresented the 20s and 30s. I am curious as to who your top rated players are from those decades.

re: #69, that Mussina can't at #5 even rate some kind of one-phrase endorsement for the HOM speaks to the general problem he's had being recognized as a HOF-caliber pitcher, and his overall general impression.

@DL from MN: Here are my top-ranked players who had their peak/prime between 1920 and 1970, interspersed with a few great players from other eras. It's mostly the usual suspects:

Major league position players:
1. Babe Ruth
-gap-
2. Barry Bonds
3. Ted Williams
4. Willie Mays
-gap-
5. Ty Cobb
6. Honus Wagner
7. Rogers Hornsby
8. Hank Aaron
9. Stan Musial
10. Tris Speaker
11. Lou Gehrig
12. Mickey Mantle
13. Eddie Collins
-gap-
Next few: Henderson, Ott, Schmidt, Lajoie, Foxx

Major league pitchers:
1. Walter Johnson
2. Cy Young
3. Roger Clemens
-gap-
4. Greg Maddux
5. Randy Johnson (beats Grove as Randy's 5-year WAA/WAR peak of 1998-2002 was slightly better than Grove's 1935-39, and Randy had better peripherals)
6. Grover Cleveland Alexander
7. Lefty Grove
8. Tom Seaver
9. Kid Nichols
10. Christy Mathewson
11. Pedro Martinez
12. Steve Carlton
13. Bert Blyleven
14. Bob Gibson
15. Gaylord Perry
16. Bob Feller
17. Warren Spahn

Unsurprisingly, the Live Ball era provided us with more all-time great hitters than pitchers.

I meant your top ranked unelected players

Sorry about that, my mistake. Incidentally, I have quite a few candidates from that era just below my ballot (so they didn't get mentioned in my original post):

26. Ernie Lombardi
27. Norm Cash
29. Willie Davis
30. Bob Johnson
32. Jack Quinn

My highest-ranked unelected player to have their peak directly after the war would be Rizzuto, followed closely by Vern Stephens.

Is it me, or are Pedro's top Innings rankings not listed on his bb-ref leaderboard?
and if not, isn't he more than any other great pitcher the one where it is most relevant?

RJ's ERA+ breakdown is right at the top end of the HOF curve: ranking from best season on, only ERA-qualifying seasons, no need for the "1" after the first ERA+ figure, and sub-100 in parentheses:

197 95 93 88 84 81 76 52 35 35 18 12 08 05 03 (90)

so you see 7 amazing seasons, another 3 very good ones, then another 5 or 6 on both ends of the inning-eater scale.

his top 10s in IP also are typical of a pitcher of his stature, with 10 placements and tending toward the top:

1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 7

Pedro - he breaks the scale in both respects.

I guess I'll keep the 1s for RJ as comparison:

RJ...... 197 195 193 188 184 181 176 152 135 135 118 112 108 105 103 (90)
Pedro. 291 243 219 211 202 163 146 124 124 123 117

Pedro has the top 5, RJ has the next 7, then Pedro-RJ-Pedro-RJ-RJ-Pedro-Pedro-Pedro-RJ-Pedro and then 5 more RJS.

IP, unofficially, for Pedro:

4 6 6 7 8 10

I don't recall any other great pitcher ever not placing in the top 3 in IP. Pedro also had more than 7 CG only once (with 13 in 1997, 219 ERA+, final yr in Montreal). Johnson had 100 CG to 46 for Pedro.

I have to digest all that.

Does the "Dec. 8" note on the header of this thread mean that ballots are not due until then? My calendar says that they are due tomorrow, but a ballot thread isn't even posted up yet, at least anywhere I can find. I guess all I can do is to post up a "final" ballot here tonight, and if the deadline really isn't until next Monday, I can always put in a tweaked version by then. I could use the extra days; Pedro Martinez is proving to be about ten times as hard to figure out as I though he would be. The basic issue is that Pedro's yearly IP numbers are smaller than those in his peer group (Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, maybe a couple of others), while his ERA+ is much higher. This is complicated by a run of Greg Maddux seasons where he drops for two years to Pedro's IP levels (during the work stoppage years), and puts up ERA+ that look like two Pedro seasons, much higher ERA+ than other Maddux seasons. I'm trying to wrestle with the question of whether 250+ IP at a 170 ERA+ is really identical to a 215-220 IP year with a 270 ERA+. That's what the Maddux oddity seems to be telling me and of course it affects where I place Pedro. - Brock Hanke

FYI Brock from this thread:

50. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 18, 2014 at 05:05 PM (#4845429)
OK, based on DL's comments, I think running the election December 1-15 works. Does that work for the ballot counters?
51. OCF Posted: November 18, 2014 at 11:04 PM (#4845536)
I'm OK with that.

Here's Brock Hanke's "final" ballot, pending finding out that the deadline is actually Dec. 8, instead of Dec. 3. If I have just missed the ballot thread, which I can't find, please transfer this ballot from the Discussion Thread to the Ballot Thread. However, if I do have until Dec. 8, I'll do some tweaks and add more commentary.

As usual, I've just listed my top 15 without comments, for ease of tabulation, and then redid the same list with comments.

1. Randy Johnson
2. Gary Sheffield
3. Curt Schilling
4. Pedro Martinez
5. Bobby Bonds
6. Babe Adams
7. Sammy Sosa
8. John Smoltz
9. Mike Mussina
10. Hugh Duffy
11. Carlos Delgado
12. Tommy Bridges
13. Don Newcombe
14. Lou Brock
15. Jim McCormick

1. Randy Johnson
I don't think I'm going to get much opposition to this one.

2. Gary Sheffield
If you ignore the pitchers on the header list on this thread, it's clear that WAR and Win Shares rank the position players just about the same. The oddities come when you try to compare the rankings of position players to pitchers. I generally lean more to Win Shares on pitcher rankings relative to position players; I think that WAR systemically overrates pitchers. I don't know how this happens, but my best guess is that WAR doesn't treat the ever-declining number of innings that the strongest pitchers pitch as seriously as WS does. I agree, pretty much, with Win Shares about that.

3. Curt Schilling
I give a LOT of extra credit for out-of-bounds postseason performances. Schilling has as much of that as anyone. Without that, he'd probably rank about with Sammy Sosa.

4. Pedro Martinez
I'm still not sure where to rank Pedro. Compared to his peer group (Johnson, Clemens, Maddux, maybe a couple more), he pitched very few innings per season. However, his ERA+ in those seasons are through the roof. Trying to balance the two credentials, I ran into this run of four Greg Maddux seasons, 1992-1995:

Year IP ERA+
1992 268 166
1993 267 170
1994 202 271
1995 209 260

The last two years, with the low workloads, are due to work stoppages in MLB, but that's not really important. It doesn't matter whether Greg decided to pitch low IP, or his manager decided that, or that a work stoppage led to it. The point is that those last two years, with the low IP, also feature ERA+ that are in Pedro's range. Pedro didn't normally pitch quite as few as 209 innings, but he regularly put in seasons of 210-220, and only had two seasons in his career over 220 IP, and those were a 240 and a 230. So, I'm left with the question of whether a drop of 40-50 IP actually leads to a 100-point gain in ERA+. Maddux' seasons seem to indicate that it does. The same pitcher can do both kinds of season. But the sample size is tiny, because there just aren't that many pitchers in Pedro's peer group. And, at this point, the disconnect between WS and WAR kicks in. WAR has Pedro second among the newcomers, below Randy Johnson, but significantly ahead of anyone else. Win Shares thinks that his career was, just as a compiler, behind Smoltz, Delgado, and Brian Giles.

Pedro does have some significant advantages, one of which is that he has a really well-defined prime between 1997 and 2003. There's not one clunker in that run. That's truly impressive. But after that, I'm just butting my head against a stone wall.

5. Bobby Bonds
Bobby has a short career for a HoMer but the ones he seems to have not played apparently were going to be his young ramp-up seasons and the last of his decline phase. Those seasons don't do a lot for you. And those seasons he does have are really impressive.

6. Babe Adams
I've been voting for Babe here for a long time. He pitched many seasons of high quality, and has an identifiable prime and peak, despite having had one big gap in the middle of his career, and he pitched very well in the World Series.

7. Sammy Sosa
Has about the same compiler value as Bobby Bonds, but took more years to pile it up. I give Sammy a minus for that, compared to Bobby Bonds.

8. John Smelt
With his career split so evenly between starter and closer seasons, he's almost impossible to rank by numbers. I just went with my gut feeling, as much as anything else.

9. Mike Mussina
Last year, I wrote, "I may have him overrated. His 'extras' are not good. His best seasons are scattered, so he doesn't really have a serious prime. He pitched poorly in the postseason. He couldn't hit. He did, however, field well." I don't have anything to add to that this year.

10. Hugh Duffy
A great hitter, although you have to make some adjustments for the offensive context of the 1890s. An outstanding defensive CF, according to all accounts I've seen.

11. Carlos Delgado
Again, finding the correct place to put a hitter amongst all the pitchers of this year is a task. Win Shares and WAR simply don't agree. I leaned towards the Win Shares side.

12. Tommy Bridges
Last year, I wrote a long comment on Tommy, where I produced a list of comparable contemporary pitchers, and showed that the list splits into two groups: the good group and the not-so-good group. Tommy is at the bottom of the good group, well ahead of the best of the not-so-goods. All the pitchers in the good group are in the hall except for Tommy. so I consider him to be the last of the HoMers from that group, rather than the best of the not-quite-there group.

13. Don Newcombe
I've run the same comment for a couple of years now, and can't improve on it: Again, I have nothing to add to last year's comment. In fact, I don't think I will ever improve on it. So, here it is: I don't have a standard formula to rank players with. Instead, I try to balance among the various ranking methods. What to various WAR systems say? How about IP and ERA+? Win Shares? Where does he rank among his contemporaries? Does he have an identifiable peak and prime? Black and grey ink? And then there are the "extras" that I constantly mention. What are "extras?" Don Newcombe's career. That's what extras are.

14. Lou Brock
Played in one of the worst hitting environments since the Dead Ball Era. Also played in a ballpark that savagely suppressed homers, concealing that Lou actually had decent power, and would have hit 20 homers in at least a few seasons under almost any other conditions. Fielding systems, almost all of which double-count errors, hit him unfairly hard in his weakest point.

15. Jim McCormick
Jim has a version of the Pedro Martinez / Greg Maddux issue. An example: In 1882 and 1884, he pitched over 500 innings, with ERAs that could be more impressive. But in 1883, he "only" pitched a little fewer than 400 IP, and his ERA+ was 170, a very large jump. The 1880s were a time when MLB was just finding out that the number of innings a solid starter could pitch was going down, instead of remaining where it was in 1879.

Required Disclosures

Kenny Lofton - Was at the bottom of my ballot last year. I have him lower than Lou Brock, but not by a whole lot.

Jeff Kent - The New Historical Abstract's comment is "One of the best RBI men ever to play second base." I think that about covers it.

Luis Tiant - Will reappear on my ballot as soon as this current crunch of outstanding candidates slows down a little, although he will still be behind Hilton Smith.

Buddy Bell - Sort of Ken Boyer lite. He has 19 more career Win Shares, but his peak, his prime, and his Win Shares per 162 games are lower than Ken's. I'm a Ken Boyer fan, and think Ken's a good bit stronger than the weakest of the HoMers. Bell is really really close to the in/out line.

Phil Rizzuto - If you think all his WWII years would have been as good as 1950 was, and that he had a FOUR-year bout of malaria after the war, I think you could make a case.
My usual comment is that you can find a consecutive string of Rabbit Maranville years that produce the same playing time and the same offensive OPS+ as Rizzuto's entire career. And then there are the OTHER 1000+ games that Rabbit played. And, as good as Rizzuto's defense was, Rabbit's was better. Rabbit Maranville is not in the Hall of Merit. Until he is, I'm not going to seriously consider Phil Rizzuto.

Ben Taylor - Will probably appear on my ballot if someone can give me some good context about how important 1B defense was in the negro game in the Dead Ball Era. Since the whole concept of a negro league is very dicey until 1920, the negro game mostly consisted of exhibitions, some against good teams, and many against town teams whose starting pitcher might very well have been my granddad. My granddad did pitch for town teams while going to college, but, realistically, a good negro team would have scored about 20 runs off him, at which point it's not important for the 1B to be able to field bunts. Since fielding bunts was THE requirement of MLB 1B defense that resulted in not having big strong sluggers out there, this is very important for putting Taylor's hitting records in context.

Just to be a bit personal and emotional, my biggest regret about this year's ballot is not being able to find a slot for Hilton Smith. He would have been #16 this year, and will probably reappear in a year or two after the current glut cops off.

- Brock Hanke

Bleed (#77) - Yeah, I read that comment, but it has a range of possible due dates, from Dec. 1 - 15. But I never saw anything that pinned the deadline down any more than that. I'd seen Dec. 3 first, and, not wanting to have my ballot uncounted, went with it. The header now says Dec. 8. I have no idea what the actual due date is: the 3rd, the 8th, or the 15th. So I went with the earliest one. As I said, I'll add more analysis and commentary if I find that I do have more time. I was mostly worried that someone had put up a hard deadline comment somewhere, and I had just missed it. But thanks for the help. At least I know it wasn't Dec. 1. - Brock

Oh. I think I just found the source of my problem with deadlines. In comment #38, DL said that the deadline for the MMP would be the 3rd. The MMP is not the HoM. My fault. - Brock

Also, my #8 is John Smoltz, not Smelt. - Brock

Looks like 14 ballots so far (15 if you count mine that will eventually be in). No ballot discussion comments since 12/2 ... I'll send an email to the group reminding everyone too.

I'll get this over to the ballot thread at some point.

2015 preliminary ballot. New eligibles are top notch. The backloggers might move some from last year - system I use to determine rankings is still in place but there are elements I can add in as well that shift the down ballot stuff.

Methodology in brief: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WAR, OPS+/ERA+. Ratings include positional adjustments, additions to one’s playing record for minor league service, war, and NeL credit and for our real oldtimers some contemporary opinion thrown in. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true. Last year’s placement is in parenthesis.

1. Randy Johnson (-). A two pitch pitcher – awesome fastball and awesome slider. 10.6 K/9IP which is obscene considering he heaved over 4,000 innings.

2. Pedro Martinez (-). The multitude of pitches, all varying in arm angle and speed. His ERA+ (5 time league leader) read like those of relievers.

3. Mike Mussina (2). Most metrics point to a great career. Consistently ranked high in ERA+ and K-to-BB ratio. A grey ink monster for the pitching leaderboards, he probably could have hung around another year or two.

4. Curt Schilling (4). Add to the 216 wins an 11-2 record in the postseason and no worries for putting him here. Power pitcher, good control, workhorse, lots to like.

5. John Smoltz (-). Starter, closer, starter, whatever you want he gave. 15-4 in the postseason, remarkable since the Braves didn’t exactly pile up WS trophies during his run.

6. Gary Sheffield (-). Hitting in spades, defense suboptimal. When the mood hit this man could carry a team for long stretches.

7. Bobby Bonds (6). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son, but we’re talking about a RF who could steal bases and field his position. All five tools on display.

8. Dick Redding (7). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected. The last NeL pitcher I’d deem as worthy of induction.

9. Tommy Leach (8). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in. Useless trivia: Still holds World Series record with 4 triples in a single series.

10. Phil Rizzuto (9). I’ve done my minor league & WWII absence calibration so Scooter scoots to ballot position. Glove first but the offense during prime years was nothing to sneeze at either. Holy Cow!

11. Tony Mullane (10). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

12. Kenny Lofton (12). I’ve come around on Lofton some, bringing him up from the 30s range in balloting last year. The defense and baserunning do add up over a long career and offset batting numbers that looks more mid-ranged. A well-traveled player who helped teams win.

13. Sammy Sosa (11). Peak power that was enough to make people start walking him. This increased his value as it upped his OBP skills, doubling the value added. Early in his career he had base stealing and defense as assets.

14. Mickey Welch (13). 300 game winner in the house. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey. Seemed to pitch well against the other front line starters of his day.

15. Buddy Bell (14). Lot like Lofton, the bat was sufficient but it was defense where he shone. Not overly praised in his time due to being on non-playoff teams. Sort of a Rick Reuschel type in that his build made you question ability to play. His reflexes were superior when it came to picking it at 3B.

Next up, but off ballot:

16. Bob Johnson (15)
17. Norm Cash
18. Luis Tiant. Been balloted before, he’s always going to be a fringe 10-20 slot player. Workhorses galore in those early to mid 70s.
19. Jeff Kent. A lot of the ones requiring disclosure are bunched and just below ballot spots. Worthy of discussion in years where it isn't "new guys rule".
20. Vic Willis. A lot like Tiant. Has seen my ballot before, could again.
21. Bucky Walters
22. Bus Clarkson
23. Ben Taylor – The numbers seem to indicate top 1B during dead ball era, either MLB or NeL. Not a horrible choice in anyone’s top 15.
24. Fred McGriff
25. Frank Chance

Newcomers – Nomar Garciaparra has a little bit of that Hughie Jennings peak thing going on. Probably in the 30-35 range. Brian Giles is also top 50, actually leaning toward the mid 40s range. A Bob Johnson mold it seems. Carlos Delgado played well, not well enough or long enough for a first sacker in this era.

Post 13: Brian Giles is a dead ringer for Bob Johnson; Giles was a slightly worse defender with a slightly higher hitting peak. I'm not much for the "extra credit" arguments for Johnson, and I doubt I will be for Giles.
Post 83: Brian Giles is also top 50, actually leaning toward the mid 40s range. A Bob Johnson mold it seems.

Giles and Johnson are fairly similar for offensive value, maybe giving Giles an edge for tougher leagues than the non-integrated Johnson.

The big can of worms is on the defensive side: could be a case of managers misevaluating or Bob Johnson extracting significant value in left field, but Indian Bob was a lifetime left fielder, while Giles played 60% + of his time in center field or the cavernous right field of Petco Park.
DRA has Bob and Brian at equivalent run values from time spent in left field, Johnson 12.7k innings, Giles 5.2k.
Brian adds/loses -15 CF and -19 RF...does Brian add anything from his CF/RF compared with Indian Bob?

To Bleed the Freak (comment 57)
I have Giles 11th among eligible RFs, between Juan Gonzalez and Darryl Strawberry. That works out to something in the 130-150 range. I don't give minor league credit past the era of independent minor leagues.

Looks like 14 ballots so far (15 if you count mine that will eventually be in). No ballot discussion comments since 12/2 ... I'll send an email to the group reminding everyone too.

While I could get something in by tomorrow (because there's no way I'm ever going to miss an election if I can't help it), an extension would be great if possible, Joe.

(because there's no way I'm ever going to miss an election if I can't help it

Can, not can't.

Yardape, Dr. Chaleeko, Rawagman, Chris Cobb...where does Brian Giles fit in your ranks...even if not in Top 15, he should make it in the consideration set:

Giles is definitely in my consideration set. I have him...about 20. Just below Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzalez. As with Gonzalez, I just don't see enough seasons where Giles was clearly the best at his position in baseball (meaning, would you pick him for a 25-man all-world team). So they're slightly off ballot.

I mentioned it on his personal thread, but I like Giles a lot more than I thought I would. I've got him basically even with Sosa at #11 (Sosa #12).

I actually like Giles better than Lofton, who seems like the SABR underrated darling of the last couple of years.

"What is the source for the WAR? It doesn't line up with B-Ref or FanGraphs. Is it Dan R's?"

I was just thinking the same thing ... We probably need to update that before we post the 2016 eligibles ... it's become pretty out of whack with what is currently accepted at this point.

OK, let's extend the election through next Monday December 22 at 8 p.m. EDT.

Don't know where else to put this because Contreras isn't eligible yet but didn't want it to get lost

Kinda buried in the article, but its interesting that Jorge Posada and Jose Contreras are both older according to the lawsuit than they are on their baseball card. Contreras by four years!

I want to quickly respond to Brock Hanke's interesting question about the "tradeoff" between IP & ERA+. Clearly, from a team win perspective, the relationship is more complex than WAA and WAR reflect. In a crazy high-run environment in which the typical game score is 100-98, a pitcher who throws a shutout every game is no more valuable than a pitcher who gives up a single run every game. (I exaggerate to make the point.)

I created a statistic called "Win Values" many years ago that was designed partially to attempt to answer this question. The statistic reviews each start of a pitcher's season and calculates the additional probability his run-prevention (runs allowed) that day contributed to his team winning, given the team's offensive run scored, compared to a hypothetical league-average pitcher. To make the point again, if a team scores 12 runs in today's environment, a starting pitcher who throws a shutout is not more valuable than a pitcher who gives up one run.

Regarding Pedro Martinez, here is a win values vs. WAA comparison:

Year WAA Win Value
1997 7.1 7.0
1998 5.0 5.4
1999 7.7 7.2
2000 9.7 8.0
2001 4.0 3.5
2002 4.0 4.1

So we can see, as expected, that Pedro's phenomenal 1999 & 2000 seasons are over-valued by WAA compared to a more realistic Win Values valuation.

But, nobody denies that Pedro was a super super pitcher and highly deserving of Hall of Fame and Hall of Merit selection.

Converting IP and RA+ into a season-by-season equivalent W-L record, which is what I've been doing, is another way of managing that same tradeoff.

Hoping for some feedback from the electorate.
While I am a WAR advocate, we can always find ways of investigating/improving our understanding of a players value.
I am intrigued by the value of a situational stat, like RE24.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/re24/
Things to Remember:

● RE24 is based on the run expectancy matrix for the given park in a particular year, so while a neutral matrix like the one above will help you apply the concept, you might not be able to match RE24 values that we have on the leaderboards with your own calculations.

● RE24 only includes hitting and baserunning such as stolen bases and advancing on wild pitches for hitters. It does not include other baserunning, defense, position, or replacement level.

● RE24 assigns all defensive credit to the pitcher, so errors and bad defensive plays go against the pitcher as if the outcome of the play was caused by a sharp single.

● RE24 is context dependent by base-out state, but not by score or inning.

Tango weighs in:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/re24/
to the extent you want to be aware of the impact of each event by these 24 base-out states, then the actual outcomes is captured in RE24. Given a large enough career, what we care about is RE24, and not Linear Weights (i.e., wRAA, wOBA, wRC+). That because RE24 is about outcomes based on the 24-base out states, while the other stats don’t care about the outcomes in specific states, and just assumes the performances were proportionately spread out.


RE24 is especially helpful with relievers, as it properly assigns the run values when a reliever enters mid-inning and/or leaves mid-inning. For a starting pitcher (or a reliever that starts and ends his own inning) RE24 is proportionate to his runs allowed in any inning where he starts the inning and ends the inning.


I have downloaded the RE24 stats from Fangraphs comparing against wRAA to determine an approximate change in value each player brought to the table.
Please note that complete data is only available from 1974-present, I have a note for projecting RE24 at the same rate of over/under for players with seasons before 1974.
I apologize if the formatting is wacky:

Has anyone integrated this/something similar into personal rankings?
What are your thoughts?

If nothing else, an interesting and enlightening tool.
Or, maybe this is something that can help us sort out the backlog?

Other notable players:

Awesome, formatting corrected for post two, redoing post 1:

I've also been thinking about this and about WPA as they relate to WAA/WAR. BBREF has this going back to the 1940s. It lists RE24 wins, which I guess are similar to WAA without the fielding, positional adjustment, and some of the base running. Similarly, WPA can be thought of as similar to WAA/WAR as well. So here is Roy White's RAA snaps fielding and positional adjustment:
Rbat: 190
Rbsr: 29
Rdp: 12
Total offense RAA = 231

His WAA is 20.2 on 181 total RAA, so the R/W conversion is 8.96 R/W. Taking that R/W converter, the 231 RAA I noted above net out to 25.8 WAA.

White's WPA is 27.8. His RE24 Wins are 25.8. So, we could say that he potentially has an extra couple Wins of contextualized value.

A more extreme example is Harmon Killebrew. He has 436 offensive RAA, with a R/W conversion of 9.96 that means his offense was worth 43.8. His WPA is 59.4, however. Big gap! His RE24 Wins are 57.9. So in this case, we could wonder whether Killebrew is actually as much as 16 offensive wins better than his BBREF page suggests. That's not exactly chopped liver.

I don't know what to make of this. Here are my points of confusion or concern:
A) RE24 is context dependent in so far as the base-out states are a function of things such as quality of the lineup, batting order position, and even quality of opponents (not having to face ones own pitchers and fielders if they are exceptional), so it would likely skew towards 1-4 hitters on the best hitting teams and away from good defensive players who hit lower in the lineup as well as catchers who get fewer PAs anyway and who often seem to it lower in the lineup to save their bodies.
B) we don't have this information for about half of baseball history, so it creates apples to oranges comparisons.
C) there's no accounting for fielding, so it would skew strongly in favor of players like Killebrew who could really hit but had iron gloves.
D) there's no positional adjustment, so integrating into WAA may be an issue, and once again skews it toward the right side of the defensive spectrum.

Anyway, that's just my thoughts, and I may not be quite right in my interpretation, so I would love to see more discussion, too!

Good to see you checking on this subject Dr.

Continuing with current/future type candidates: