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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Thursday, December 28, 20172018 Hall of Merit Election Results: Chipper, Thome, Rolen and Vlad Elected!The Hall of Merit welcomes four new members. Chipper Jones was the unanimous #1 this year, receiving all 30 first place votes. Jim Thome (653) edged Scott Rolen (617) for second place. Rolen had more second place votes (13-12), but Thome had 14 third place votes to Rolen’s 9. Both were named on all 30 ballots. All three were selected in their first year of eligibility. Vladimir Guerreo is the final electee, with 290 points in his second year of eligibility. He was named on 21 ballots. Guerrero beat out Luis Tiant (240), Sammy Sosa (238), Kenny Lofton (236), Andruw Jones (220), Jeff Kent (207), Ben Taylor (197) and Johan Santana (186) for the final spot. Jones and Santana were the only other first time candidates to receive votes this year. Others named on at least six ballots (point totals/votes listed) included Buddy Bell (139/11), Bobby Bonds (124/10), Jorge Posada (105/7), Vic Willis (102/11), Sal Bando (95/8), Bob Johnson (89/10), Urban Shocker (87/8), Wally Schang (86/8), Dick Redding (86/6), Tommy Bridges (84/8), Tommy John (82/6), Phil Rizzuto (73/6), and Thurman Munson (62/6). RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 n/e Chipper Jones 720 30 30 2 n/e Jim Thome 653 30 12 14 1 3 3 n/e Scott Rolen 617 30 13 9 1 2 3 1 1 4 4 Vladimir Guerrero 290 21 1 2 4 1 2 1 4 3 1 1 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 6 Luis Tiant 240 20 4 2 2 3 1 1 2 4 1 6 5 Sammy Sosa 238 19 2 2 2 4 1 4 1 1 1 1 7 9 Kenny Lofton 236 18 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 8 n/e Andruw Jones 220 16 1 3 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 9 7 Jeff Kent 207 15 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 10 11 Ben Taylor 197 16 2 1 1 4 1 1 3 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 n/e Johan Santana 186 15 1 3 1 1 4 3 1 1 12 12 Buddy Bell 139 11 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 13 10 Bobby Bonds 124 10 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 14 14 Jorge Posada 105 7 2 1 1 1 1 1 15 8 Vic Willis 102 11 1 3 1 2 2 1 1 16 20 Sal Bando 95 8 2 2 1 1 1 1 17 15 Bob Johnson 89 10 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 18 16 Urban Shocker 87 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 19 19 Wally Schang 86 8 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 20 17T Dick Redding 86 6 1 1 2 1 1 21 13 Tommy Bridges 84 8 1 1 1 1 1 3 22 21 Tommy John 82 6 2 1 1 1 1 23 17T Phil Rizzuto 73 6 1 2 1 1 1 24 28 Thurman Munson 62 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 25 37T Hilton Smith 59 5 1 1 1 1 1 26 24 Gavy Cravath 57 5 1 2 1 1 27 27 Bert Campaneris 55 5 1 1 1 1 1 28 25 Bucky Walters 54 5 1 2 1 1 29 22 Hugh Duffy 54 4 1 1 1 1 30 48 Joe Tinker 49 5 1 1 2 1 31 33 Tommy Leach 48 4 1 1 1 1 32 23 Don Newcombe 46 4 1 3 33T 55T Babe Adams 44 3 1 1 1 33T 26 Jim McCormick 44 3 1 1 1 35 29 Bus Clarkson 41 3 1 1 1 36 43T Art Fletcher 40 4 2 2 37 31T Mickey Welch 38 4 1 1 1 1 38 45T Orel Hershiser 36 3 1 1 1 39 30 Frank Chance 34 4 1 1 1 1 40 68T Kevin Appier 31 3 1 2 41 37T Vern Stephens 31 2 1 1 42 40 Luke Easter 29 2 1 1 43 -- Ray Dandridge 28 2 1 1 44T 34 Fred McGriff 24 2 1 1 44T 39 Bobby Veach 24 2 1 1 46 47 Dizzy Dean 22 2 2 47T 45T Lou Brock 22 1 1 47T 49 Addie Joss 22 1 1 49 50T Trevor Hoffman 20 2 1 1 50 42 Bob Elliott 19 2 1 1 51T 54 Brian Giles 16 2 1 1 51T 36 Dale Murphy 16 2 1 1 53T 31T Ed Cicotte 16 1 1 53T 57 Dolf Luque 16 1 1 53T 55T Jack Quinn 16 1 1 56T -- Andy Cooper 15 1 1 56T -- Mickey Lolich 15 1 1 58T 59T Ernie Lombardi 14 1 1 58T 59T Lee Smith 14 1 1 60 43T John Olerud 13 2 1 1 61T 52 Nomar Carciaparra 13 1 1 61T 59T Dwight Gooden 13 1 1 61T 53 Billy Wagner 13 1 1 64T 35 Tommy Bond 12 1 1 64T -- Kiki Cuyler 12 1 1 64T 65T Luis Gonzalez 12 1 1 64T 41 Tony Mullane 12 1 1 68T n/e Jamie Moyer 11 1 1 68T 50T Kirby Puckett 11 1 1 70 68T Ron Cey 10 1 1 71T 71T Frank Tanana 9 1 1 71T -- Robin Ventura 9 1 1 73 -- Willie Davis 8 1 1 74T 71T Carlos Delgado 7 1 1 74T -- Gil Hodges 7 1 1 74T -- Hack Wilson 7 1 1 77T 75T Luis Aparicio 6 1 1 77T 65T Dave Concepcion 6 1 1 77T 75T Johnny Evers 6 1 1 77T 73T Lefty Gomez 6 1 1 Dropped Out: Dave Bancroft (64), Charlie Buffinton (58), George J. Burns(75T), Norm Cash(73T), Fred Dunlap(75T), Toby Harrah(68T), Jim Kaat(65T), Pie Traynor(75T), George Uhle(75T), Frank Viola(63), Ed Williamson(59T). Ballots Cast: 30 JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: December 28, 2017 at 11:14 AM | 32 comment(s)
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1. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 28, 2017 at 11:28 AM (#5598050)I'll update the important links page next.
I would add in the intro that Chipper, Thome, and Rolen were elected to the Hall of Merit on their first ballot. Vladimir Guerrero was elected on his second HOM ballot. Maybe mention that Andruw Jones and Johan Santana were the only other first-timers who received significant support from the voters.
I like how this sets up Tiant for next December. He appeared just off-ballot on several posts also. I think we have consensus that Tiant is the best pitcher available. There is no slippery slope by electing Tiant. He's the best available from his era and is in several voters' PHoM already.
I also think we're short on pitchers. I hope to see more than one pitcher elected next year. I'll run the data later but our representation of pitching is too low to consider it "fair to all positions". It's going to be Tiant or an outfielder for that last slot. We have plenty of outfielders already.
I’ll be exercising my one year boycott on Pettitte, but even if I weren’t, he’d be off ballot around 19 or so. I can’t see Rivera any higher than 21 and Berkman 31 at absolute best.
Maybe other voters will go hard for Rivera and/or Pettitte? Regardless, I’m unsure how no-brainer this crop of newcomers will be.
[ronw or RickA likely will fix the occasional mistakes - and there surely are some - and thanks for that as always]
for newer voters next year, the top leftovers might be another small group to at least kick the tires on (like Van Haltren, JRyan, Grimes, LDoyle, BMonroe, NWilliamson, TPerez, Traynor, CMays, OCepeda, SRice, Singleton)
quiet year as Willis passes Williamson for 47th place as the lead item
TOP 50, ALL-TIME, unofficial (pts this year)
DUFFY...... 28053.5 (54)
VAN HALTREN 26923.5 (x)
Beckley.... 25856
Browning... 24502.5
MWELCH..... 18921 (38)
REDDING.... 18841 (86) epic battle between these two to be the top unchosen P
Childs..... 18484
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
Jennings... 16976
LEACH...... 16142 (48)
ChaJones....15875
Bresnahan.. 14965
Sisler..... 13892
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
CRAVATH.....12752 (57)
RYAN....... 12678.5 (x)
Mendez..... 12555
Thompson... 12349
WALTERS.....12194 (54)
Roush...... 12005
Bennett.... 11503
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
BJOHNSON....10007 (89)
Beckwith.... 9896
GRIMES.......9876 (x)
DOYLE....... 9816 (x)
HStovey......9576
Mackey.......8930
AOms.........8385
Start........8378.5
McGinnity....8232
McGraw.......8145
DPearce......8073
McVey........7985.5
FGrant.......7969.5
BMONROE......7947 (x)
Kiner........7746
Suttles......7690
NFox.........7587
Trouppe......7494
WFerrell.....7259
SCHANG.......7169 (86)
WILLIS.......7125 (102)
WILLIAMSON...7035 (x)
CPBell.......6968
Galvin.......6585
Others in active top 50 (X if no votes this year):
DDean 6061, BTaylor 5516, Rizzuto 5506, Bridges 5491, Elliott 5364, Joss 5065, Tiant 4851, TPerez 4385X, FChance 4098, Traynor 3848X, NCash 3810X, CMays 3803x, BoBonds 3648, McCormick 3539, OCepeda 3465X, Cicotte 3420, SRice 3301X, LBrock 3284, EHoward 2947X, BClarkson 2877, VStephens 2740, Singleton 2723X, Tiernan 2709X, FJones 2636X, Puckett 2613, Klein 2601X, Veach 2472, Mullane 2449, Staub 2396X, GJBurns 2388X, Lombardi 2320, Dunlap 2304X, Concepcion 2189, Bancroft 2151X, Newcombe 2149
Interesting to see Willis and Bridges both take sizeable hits. After Tiant there seems to be no consensus on the pitchers backlog.
As far as next year, I see three newcomers who will be on my ballot and three that are in consideration. Rivera vs Halladay will be tough for the number one slot.
But the page at the Hall of Fame site says "Club 319". But when you hit the "Search Hall of Famers" link there are 320. I could see this being 321 (Morris and Trammell) but how it's off by 1 is a mystery to me.
The text of the Club 319 blurb says 30 executives, but there are 35 when you search. I assume that Effa Manley, Alex Pompez, Cum Posey, Sol White, JL Wilkinson are the extra 5.
The text of the Club 319 blurb says 22 managers but there are 23 when you search. I assume Rube Foster is the extra one.
The text of the Club 319 blurb says 35 Negro Leaguers and we can't search for them separately, so I think that means 29 as players (35-5-1 = 29).
The text of the Club 319 blurb says 222 players, but adding all of the search by position together, I find 252. Except the 222 + 29 = 251. WTF?
Do I really have to count these guys one by one?
222 (MLB players) + 29 (NeL players) + 5 (NeL execs) + 1 (NeL manager) + 22 (MLB managers) + 30 (MLB execs) + 10 (umpires) = 319. Found it, the one extra is something called Test HOFER page 2018.
More to follow ...
Scrolling down to the future eligibles for 2019 and you do see everyone you'd expect - Halladay, Rivera, etc. Even the lesser players in the list are mostly understandible - Michael Young isn't a Hall of Famer by any reasonable standard but he was perceived as a star for a while. But who decided that Darren Oliver was important enough to write a blurb on, instead of say, Placido Polanco or Derek Lowe? The rest of the page seems pretty standard, the 10-12 most recognizible eligibles per year. But Darren Oliver?
But they've now fallen behind by 11 major leaguers over the last 15 years. Which is the main reason the ballot is so damned crowded these days.
The gap mainly comes from 2006-13, they fell 11 behind us in those years alone. Since then the BBWAA has made up the one player they lost in 2004 (assuming they elect four this year - Jones, Thome, Vlad are locks; Edgar and/or Hoffman should join them). So maybe this issue will pass over the next decade, as the new Veteran's Committee is at least electing modern players again.
If I'd voted for Bridges like I had in the past, he would have moved up to 16 or 17. So I wouldn't read too much into the drops that far down. A couple of voters can have a big impact.
My issue is with how the support evaporated for Rizzuto. It took awhile to make the case, and I wonder if the new voters missed out on that.
The main issue is 3 years of peak/prime war credit. Plus the fact that he had malaria when he came back hosed up his 1946. At a minimum, his 1946 should not be involved in figuring out what his war credit should be. But IMO, he should get credit for an improved 1946 as well.
Once you do that, his case looks a lot better.
Throw that in with DanR's WAR showing how great his defense was, and he was a very strong candidate.
He was easily our top runner up in 2012, with 336 points (396 got Cone elected). We had 37 voters that year.
In 2013 we get the massive influx, and even 2nd runner up Sammy Sosa hasn't been elected yet. So it hasn't really mattered. But Rizzuto's support has dissolved since then, inexplicably to me.
In 2013 Willis passed him, 160-155, we also fell to 34 voters. Rizzuto was still #2 amongst the old backlog.
In 2014, Rizzuto's support slipped more, still 34 voters, Tiant (157), Bonds (154), Bell (139) passed him (Rizzuto had 132 points). Willis slipped back behind him to 128. All of this is still kind of reasonable, since the top 8 spots were all recent eligibles.
2015, still 34 voters, 9 of the top 10 recent guys. Now the backlog is:
We lost a bunch of voters in 2016, now to 26; but Rizzuto stayed 7th amongst the 'old backlog'.
2017, same, 26 voters; Rizzuto now down to 10th. Guys like Bob Johnson, Tommy Bridges and Urban Shocker have passed him now.
This year, all the way to 13th amongst the non-modern backlog.
I think we have to make the case all over again now. Gavy Cravath is in a similar boat. He was 5th back in 2012 amongst the backlog. Now (again, not counting the newly eligible since then) he is 16th.
I agree, DL, but we're finding it harder to come to a consensus regarding pitchers than position players.
For instance, Dolf Luque and Hilton Smith are my two best pitching candidates, because the color line influenced both careers - massively for Smith and subtly for Luque. I was Luque's only voter, and Smith (though he's on a upward trend) finished 8th among pitchers this year.
Then, after Johan Santana, my next four are Tommy John, Tiant, Lee Smith, and Dick Redding. At least John and Tiant were contemporaries. It's hard to compare Smith, a reliever in the transitional fireman-to-closer era, and Redding, an early black pitcher with a scanty formal record, to those two or to each other.
I should look harder at Smith. The Hall of Fame took him, and some here like him. It’s been awhile since I reviewed his MLEs which I assume have been updated.
The issue here is that we have have different standards for decision making. Given how I see things (BBRef WAR paramount with some OPS+ influence, not devaluing 19th century NL pitchers, preference for career value over peak, not giving strong emphasis on relief pitching, not penalizing or crediting for war or injury or illness or postseason play or minor league service), these pitcher choices strike me as logical and correct. I know not everyone agrees with this thinking, but that’s what works for me.
Should we be starting a discussion thread for next year?
Disclosures: am going with Seamheads for Negro Leaguers. Preference for BBRef WAR with some influence of OPS+ and ERA+ for the rest. Am valuing hitting prowess at C, SS, 2B, CF a bit extra. Being best available candidate at your position helps also. Still trying to sort out peak vs. longevity, but often favoring the latter. Fine with giving Negro League credit, not presently giving credit or debit for war, injury, illness, postseason play, or minor league service. Am currently treating 19th century pitchers pretty much equally as post-1900, but for now tending to discount AA, NA, and UA stats as possibly suspect. Not taken with giving relievers a lot of emphasis. Will dock 1st year candidates who bet on games, threw games, impeded players of color, were caught using PEDs post-2005 (Manny, ARod), and likely used pre-2005 if it looks like they'll get an immediate free pass by BBWAA HoF voters (IRod, Ortiz, Pettitte).
As noted, I am exercising my one-year boycott of Pettitte. He would rank between Welch and Shocker otherwise.
1. Jim McCormick. Best WAR for starters not in by a mile. Short career, but played in NL except for one UA season.
2. Luis Tiant. Best WAR for non-19th century starters.
3. Roy Halladay. Not ranking him quite as high as McCormick and Tiant, but extremely qualified.
4. Buddy Bell. Best WAR at 3B until this year. Currently inclined to trust the metric for him.
5. Andruw Jones. Best CF WAR. Close between him and Bell for me.
6. Jeff Kent. Best WAR at a middle infield position and hit well, can't in good conscience rank him below Vlad, Sosa, or Johnson.
7. Todd Helton. Excellent WAR and easily the best qualified 1B.
8. Sammy Sosa. Better WAR than I remembered. Happy to give him some benefit of the doubt given his treatment by the BBWAA.
9. Bob Johnson. Best WAR among available LFs.
10. Wally Schang. Among best C WAR, also hit well.
11. Vic Willis. Good WAR.
12. Ben Taylor. Best NGL position player per Seamheads.
13. Dick Redding. Best NGL pitcher per Seamheads.
14. Vern Stephens. I value hitting at a premium position highly, so I'm ranking him here.
15. Kenny Lofton. Not as much hitting as I'd like, but lots of WAR at a premium position.
16-40. Tommy John, Sal Bando, Mickey Welch, Urban Shocker, Thurman Munson, Mariano Rivera, Tommy Bridges, Joe Tinker, Jim Fregosi, Bobby Bonds, John Olerud, Ernie Lombardi, Luis Aparicio, Bert Campaneris, Johan Santana, Gavvy Cravath, Fred McGriff, Bob Elliott, Jorge Posada, Jose Cruz, Tony Lazzeri, Lance Berkman, Willie Davis, Jack Quinn, Harry Hooper.
Various comments. Phil Rizzuto doesn't do much for me (low OPS+, low WAR, short career) -- and prefer him to Omar Vizquel. Bucky Walters also doesn't sufficiently impress me (good but not top of the line WAR or career ERA+). I do not value relief pitching very highly; Mariano Rivera does have a terrific OPS+ but his WAR number places him 21st on my ballot. Am still struggling with where to place Santana and Cravath, but for now am placing them 30th and 31st.
Ranking by position:
1B. Helton, Taylor, Olerud, McGriff
2B. Kent, Lazzeri, Evers, Phillips
SS. Stephens, Tinker, Fregosi, Aparicio, Campaneris
3B. Bell, Bonds, Elliott, Cey, Ventura
LF. B. Johnson, J. Cruz, Berkman, J. Gonzalez
CF. A. Jones, Lofton, W. Davis, Lemon
RF. Sosa, Bonds, Cravath, Hooper, Rice
C. Schang, Munson, Lombardi, Posada, Tenace
P. McCormick, Tiant, Willis, Redding, John, M. Welch, [Pettitte], Shocker, Rivera, Bridges, Santana, Quinn, Cicotte
C 23 8.6%
1B 26 9.7%
2B 24 9.0%
3B 21 7.9%
SS 23 8.6%
LF 24 9.0%
CF 25 9.4%
RF 26 9.7%
DH 1
P 64 27.7%
Total 267
Outfield total is 28.1%. I could argue as high as 33% pitching would be appropriate. I have targeted 30% in my PHoM.
Not everyone does this for pitchers because pitchers generally only have so many innings in their arm per season.
I also like Jim McCormick but I don't believe standard WAR calculations really capture the replacement level of the time before the pitching rubber was set at 60'6". They weren't playing the same game. Then you have goofy things like 1884 where McCormick generates 14.5 WAR across two leagues and his WAA is higher than his WAR for the Union Association. What does that mean when replacement is above average?
As for the rest, I can't say as of yet what I want to do re further adjusting.
The HoM now has 267 players. The official HOF list has 255 players.
However, there are 12 players in the HoM who are not in the HOF's consideration set as players.
These six HoMers are classified as non-players in the HOF:
George Wright
Al Spalding
Clark Griffith
John McGraw
Rube Foster
Joe Torre
These two HoMers are banned from the HOF:
Joe Jackson
Pete Rose
These four HoMers played less than ten years in MLB from 1876+, so the HOF would classify them as Pioneers:
Dickey Pearce
Ross Barnes
Cal McVey
Lip Pike
So after the 2018 elections the HoM and HOF are actually even, with 255 players from the same pool of candidates.
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