BBTF's Hall of Merit Discussion :: Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera, and “Cannonball” Dick Redding elected

Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Wednesday, January 09, 2019

Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera, and “Cannonball” Dick Redding elected - Hall of Merit Class of 2019

Congrats to the class of 2019, Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera, and “Cannonball” Dick Redding!

Halladay and Rivera each garnered 9 of 27 first place votes, with Redding carrying 6 others. There was strong consensus this year - no other player received more than four top 3 votes. Halladay had 25, Rivera 19, and Redding 15. Todd Helton (5th), Jeff Kent (9th) and Jim McCormick (41st) also received first place votes.

Halladay was the only player named on all 27 ballots. Rivera was named on 26 and Redding 22. Others named on at least half of the ballots include Luis Tiant (4th), who was named on 20, Helton on 19, Kenny Lofton (6th) on 18, Johan Santana (10th) on 16, Andruw Jones (7th) and Ben Taylor (8th) on 15.

Redding vaulted from 20th to 3rd on the strength of new MLEs. It was his 83rd year of eligibility a great testament to perpetual eligibility. The system works!

All of the top ten were mentioned above. Players also requiring comment next year (top 10 returning players) include Wally Schang, Sammy Sosa, and Lance Berkman.

Players in the top 30 moving up or down at least 5 places include:

Wally Schang from 19 to 11
Sammy Sosa from 6 to 12
Lance Berkman debuting at 13
Thurman Munson from 24 to 14
Phil Rizzuto from 23 to 15
Buddy Bell from 12 to 17
Jorge Posada from 14 to 19
Bobby Bonds from 13 to 20
Sal Bando from 16 to 21
Don Newcombe from 32 to 22
Andy Pettitte debuting at 24
Art Fletcher from 36 to 25
Tommy Bridges from 21 to 26
Urban Shocker from 18 to tied for 30th
Hilton Smith from 25 to 52T
Hugh Duffy from 29 to 58T

RK   LY  Player             PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1  n/e  Roy Halladay       612   27   9 10  6  2                                 
 2  n/e  Mariano Rivera     549   26   9  7  3  3  1  1  1           1            
 3   20  Dick Redding       442   22   6  4  5  1  1     1  2  1  1               
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 4    5  Luis Tiant         263   20      1  1  1  2  3  3     2     1  3  1  1  1
 5  n/e  Todd Helton        244   19   1        1  3  1  3  1     3  1  2  3      
 6    7  Kenny Lofton       217   18         1  1  1  3  1  2     2  2     2  1  2
 7    8  Andruw Jones       201   15      2  1  2  1  1           2     2  1  2  1
 8   10  Ben Taylor         196   15            4  2        2  1  1  3  1  1      
 9    9  Jeff Kent          188   12   1     3     1  1  2     1  1     1     1   
10   11  Johan Santana      179   16         1     1  2  1     2  1  1  3     1  3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11   19  Wally Schang       153   12         1     1  3     2     1  1  1  1     1
12    6  Sammy Sosa         148   13            1     2  2  1     1  1  1  3     1
13  n/e  Lance Berkman      135    9         2  1  1        2  1  1     1         
14   24  Thurman Munson     105    9         1           2  2     1              3
15   23  Phil Rizzuto       102    9            1  1  1  1  1                 3  1
16   17  Bob Johnson         99   11                        1     2  2  1  2  1  2
17   12  Buddy Bell          97    8            1  2  1     1              1     2
18   15  Vic Willis          94    9                           4  2     1  1  1   
19   14  Jorge Posada        91    7      1        1           2  1  1        1   
20   13  Bobby Bonds         78    6            1     2        1     1  1         
21   16  Sal Bando           75    6            2        1  1              1     1
22   32  Don Newcombe        66    6               1     1        1  1     1  1   
23   22  Tommy John          66    5            2     1              1        1   
24  n/e  Andy Pettitte       59    5               1  1              2     1      
25   36  Art Fletcher        55    4         1           1           1  1         
26   21  Tommy Bridges       54    5            1  1                    1        2
27   26  Gavy Cravath        53    5                     1  1  1              2   
28   31  Tommy Leach         50    4         1              1              1  1   
29   28  Bucky Walters       46    5                  1              1  1        2
30T  27  Bert Campaneris     43    4                     1  1           1     1   
30T  18  Urban Shocker       43    4                  1           1     1  1      
32   30  Joe Tinker          36    3               1        1                 1   
33   40  Kevin Appier        35    3               1                 1  1         
34   44T Bobby Veach         34    3                           2     1            
35   35  Bus Clarkson        31    2            1        1                        
36   53T Ed Cicotte          30    2            1           1                     
37   53T Dolf Luque          29    2               1        1                     
38   41  Vern Stephens       26    3                              1        1  1   
39   37  Mickey Welch        24    3                                    1  1  1   
40   44T Fred McGriff        24    2                     1           1            
41   33T Jim McCormick       24    1   1                                          
42T  64T Tommy Bond          23    1      1                                       
42T  47T Addie Joss          23    1      1                                       
44   42  Luke Easter         22    2               1                             1
45   77T Johnny Evers        20    2                           1           1      
46T  61T Dwight Gooden       19    2                        1                    1
46T n/e  Roy Oswalt          19    2                           1              1   
48   50  Bob Elliott         18    2                           1                 1
49   33T Babe Adams          16    1               1                              
50T  58T Ernie Lombardi      15    1                  1                           
50T  71T Frank Tanana        15    1                  1                           
52T  61T Nomar Carciaparra   14    1                     1                        
52T  --  Tommy Henrich       14    1                     1                        
52T  25  Hilton Smith        14    1                     1                        
55   60  John Olerud         13    2                                          1  1
56T  56T Mickey Lolich       13    1                        1                     
56T  58T Lee Smith           13    1                        1                     
58T  39  Frank Chance        12    1                           1                  
58T  29  Hugh Duffy          12    1                           1                  
58T  --  Chuck Finley        12    1                           1                  
58T  --  Carlos Moran        12    1                           1                  
58T  64T Tony Mullane        12    1                           1                  
58T  61T Billy Wagner        12    1                           1                  
64T  46  Dizzy Dean          11    1                              1               
64T  --  Fred Dunlap         11    1                              1               
64T  --  Harry Hooper        11    1                              1               
64T  53T Jack Quinn          11    1                              1               
68T  64T Kiki Cuyler         10    1                                 1            
68T  38  Orel Hershiser      10    1                                 1            
68T  --  Heavy Johnson       10    1                                 1            
71T  --  Dave Bancroft        9    1                                    1         
71T  --  Hurley McNair        9    1                                    1         
73T  --  Silvio Garcia        8    1                                       1      
73T  64T Luis Gonzalez        8    1                                       1      
73T  --  Tony Phillips        8    1                                       1      
76T  77T Luis Aparicio        7    1                                          1   
76T  --  Sam Bankhead         7    1                                          1   
76T  51T Brian Giles          7    1                                          1   
76T  51T Dale Murphy          7    1                                          1   
80   71T Robin Ventura        6    1                                             1
Dropped Out: Lou Brock (47T), Ron Cey (70), Dave Concepcion (77T), Andy Cooper (56T),
Ray Dandridge (43), Willie Davis (73), Carlos Delgado (74T), Lefty Gomez (77T), Gil Hodges (74T),
Trevor Hoffman (49), Jamie Moyer (68T), Kirby Puckett (68T), Hack Wilson (74T).
Ballots Cast: 27

JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: January 09, 2019 at 08:21 PM | 59 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: January 09, 2019 at 08:48 PM (#5803918)

Big thanks to Ron Wargo for counting the ballots! And to all of you for your voting, posting, and support.

2. Kiko Sakata

Posted: January 09, 2019 at 09:25 PM (#5803922)

The three guys elected were 1-2-3 on my ballot in the same order as the final vote. I'm pretty sure that's a first and I'm not sure I've been particularly close before. I suppose the oft-discussed problem of too few pitchers in the Hall of Merit is not quite as big a deal. Now, I need to start working on convincing everybody of the merits of Tommy John and Vern Stephens!

3. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: January 09, 2019 at 09:30 PM (#5803924)

Just wondering - if we'd had these MLEs when Redding had first come on the ballot, when would he have been elected?

He came on in 1937, when Harry Heilmann & Cristobal Torriente were chosen. I'm leaning towards no on that. 1938 was Heinie Groh & Stan Coveleski, and I think he definitely should've been ahead of them.

4. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: January 09, 2019 at 09:43 PM (#5803928)

Wow Devin, the trickle down from that would be really interesting. I wonder who the odd man out would have been.

I think it's impossible to figure out. We've had a few players get to within one player of getting in and then not get in and fade away. But this player got in. So it's impossible to tell if he would have lost his support if he hadn't gotten in.

5. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: January 09, 2019 at 09:55 PM (#5803931)

As far as the hats, Halladay is pretty obviously a Blue Jay (.79-.29 based on Pennants Added). Rivera duh. I guess New York Lincoln Giants for Dick Redding? That's a question, I am open to suggestions. His best years were 1911-12, 1915-23, 1927-29. He played all over the place.

6. Qufini Posted: January 09, 2019 at 10:09 PM (#5803935)

I agree with New York Lincoln Giants for Redding. He spent more seasons with the Brooklyn Royal Giants but that was near the end of his career when he was a swingman/reliever. He definitely had more value with the Lincolns.

7. progrockfan Posted: January 10, 2019 at 12:42 AM (#5803961)

My 1-2-3 all got in. It's nice to see, as a first-time voter, that my choices had some harmony with the electorate.

+1 on Redding going in as a NY Lincoln Giant.

8. DL from MN Posted: January 10, 2019 at 03:07 PM (#5804244)

if we'd had these MLEs when Redding had first come on the ballot, when would he have been elected?

Previous MLE Dick Redding made my PHoM in 2008. He would have been elected PHoM first-ballot in 1937 with the new MLE.

For the overall HoM I don't see how he makes it past 1939 when we elected Faber and Carey. The answer is sometime between 1937 and 1939.

9. DL from MN Posted: January 10, 2019 at 04:11 PM (#5804292)

I would love to page Dan R for an analysis of Todd Helton. I have him as equal to Jack Clark using my best estimate, definitely not at the top of the frontlog.

10. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: January 10, 2019 at 05:20 PM (#5804310)

I would love to page Dan R for an analysis of Todd Helton. I have him as equal to Jack Clark using my best estimate, definitely not at the top of the frontlog.

I had him #16 this year - and that was using bWAR as the foundation - with a healthy dose of DanR WAR intuition thrown in.

Let me pull his DanR WAR up ... IIRC DanR WAR is not on exactly the same scale as bWAR or fWAR. I believe his replacement level is higher and his WAR is lower.

Todd Helton
Year   WARP2   BWAA2 BRWAA2  FWAA2  Rep2  LgAdj
1997    -0.1    0.0    0.0   -0.1   -0.2  .961
1998     2.2    1.4    0.0    0.6   -0.2  .905
1999     1.5    1.6    0.0   -0.3   -0.3  .918
2000     5.9    5.0    0.3    0.4   -0.2  .934
2001     6.6    4.7    0.4    1.2   -0.3  .961
2002     5.1    4.1   -0.1    0.8   -0.3  .955
2003     7.0    5.5    0.2    1.1   -0.3  .969
2004     6.3    5.8    0.2    0.1   -0.3  .967
2005     5.4    4.0    0.2    0.9   -0.2  .997

11. DL from MN Posted: January 11, 2019 at 09:59 AM (#5804519)

That leaves out another 12 WAR according to BBREF, though no more WAA. Those league adjustments for 1998 and 1999 are HUGE btw. I've been adding 11 WAR and 3 WAPA to my totals to account for the rest of his career.

Here are the WAPA (wins above positional average) for Helton those years:
-0.4
0.5
-0.4
4.4
4.3
3.4
4.1
4.6
2.9
TOTAL = 23.4

Here's Jack Clark

YEAR WARP2 BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 Rep2 LgAdj WAPA2
1976 0.4 -0.1 0 0.3 -0.2 0.929 0
1977 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.5 0.972 0
1978 6 5 -0.2 0.6 -0.6 0.988 3.8
1979 3.3 3.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.981 1.3
1980 4.1 4.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 0.985 2.5
1981 4.3 2.8 -0.1 0.9 -0.6 0.975 2
1982 3.5 3.7 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 0.985 1.3
1983 3.6 2.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.6 1.004 1.6
1984 2.3 2.7 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.992 1.4
1985 2.8 4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.989 1.4
1986 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 0 1.001 0.5
1987 5.7 6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.982 4
1988 2.2 2.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.949 1.9
1989 4.4 4.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.979 2.5
1990 3.2 3.9 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 0.973 1.7
1991 1.6 1.9 -0.2 0 0 0.948 1.7
1992 0 -0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 0.955 0.4
TOTAL 50.2 47.7 -2.1 -1.3 -5.7 16.587 28

Clark is 50.2 WAR and 28 WAPA. Helton is 50.1 WAR and 26.7 WAPA.

12. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 11, 2019 at 05:15 PM (#5804813)

OCF, if you're still out there, I miss your analysis of who had the most eccentric ballots.

13. DL from MN Posted: January 24, 2019 at 05:29 PM (#5808652)

Anyone want to write plaques?

14. Carl Goetz Posted: January 25, 2019 at 10:49 AM (#5808771)

Sure. Are there official guidelines? ie length limits, things required to be included, etc.
Also, is it correct that we need all the electees from 2014 to 2019 and not just this year's? I'm happy to tackle the project, but don't want to re-do work that I'm just not finding.

15. DL from MN Posted: January 25, 2019 at 10:57 AM (#5808776)

Look at the other plaques, give it your best shot, post the result here.

16. Carl Goetz Posted: January 25, 2019 at 11:14 AM (#5808784)

Sounds good. Am I correct that we need plaques for the 2014-2019 electees?

17. Rob_Wood Posted: January 25, 2019 at 11:42 AM (#5808802)

theorioleway has been writing the recent plaques (I, among others, have reviewed them).

As far as I can tell, plaques have been written up to and including the 2016 class (Griffey, Mussina, Smoltz, Sheffield). But I am not sure that these plaques have been "added" to the HOM Plaque Room.

Maybe theorioleway or Joe (or anyone else in the know) can chime in here.

18. Carl Goetz Posted: January 25, 2019 at 02:42 PM (#5808885)

Sounds good. I'll plan on doing 2017-2019, but I'll start with the 2019 guys to give others a chance to chime in.

19. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 26, 2019 at 12:14 PM (#5809126)

Hall of Merit, not Hall of Fame, 60 a piece, though Rose, Jackson, Barnes, McVey, Pearce are ineligible by banning or less than 10 years, while Pike is probably ignored due to NA play, along with Oms and Trouppe based on a strong portion coming from Cuban leagues, while the HOF elected some contributors and HOM elected them as players, HOF could have elected them as players at some point, so essentially...

HOF = +60, HOM = +52...HOM has a chance to fill 3 of the 8 if just Jeter makes the HOF next year.

Apologies if I goofed on any classifications:

HOM:
Dick Allen
Ross Barnes
John Beckwith
Barry Bonds
Ken Boyer
Kevin Brown
Pete Browning
Bob Caruthers
Cupid Childs
Will Clark
Roger Clemens
David Cone
Bill Dahlen
Jim Edmonds
Darrell Evans
Dwight Evans
Wes Ferrell
Bill Freehan
Jack Glasscock
George Gore
Bobby Grich
Heinie Groh
Stan Hack
Keith Hernandez
Paul Hines
Joe Jackson
Charley Jones
Charlie Keller
Sherry Magee
Mark McGwire
Cal McVey
Minnie Minoso
Dobie Moore
Graig Nettles
Alejandro Oms
Rafael Palmeiro
Dickey Pearce
Billy Pierce
Lip Pike
Manny Ramirez
Willie Randolph
Rick Reuschel
Hardy Richardson
Scott Rolen
Pete Rose
Home Run Johnson
Bret Saberhagen
Curt Schilling
Jimmy Sheckard
Gary Sheffield
Ted Simmons
Reggie Smith
Joe Start
Dave Stieb
Harry Stovey
Ezra Sutton
Quincy Trouppe
Larry Walker
Lou Whitaker
Jimmy Wynn

HOF:
Luis Aparicio
Harold Baines
Dave Bancroft
Chief Bender
Jim Bottomley
Lou Brock
Orlando Cepeda
Frank Chance
Jack Chesbro
Earle Combs
Andy Cooper
Kiki Cuyler
Ray Dandridge
Leon Day
Dizzy Dean
Hugh Duffy
Johnny Evers
Rick Ferrell
Lefty Gomez
Burleigh Grimes
Chick Hafey
Jesse Haines
Trevor Hoffman
Harry Hooper
Waite Hoyt
Catfish Hunter
Travis Jackson
Judy Johnson
Addie Joss
George Kell
High Pockets Kelly
Chuck Klein
Tony Lazzeri
Freddie Lindstrom
Ernie Lombardi
Heinie Manush
Rabbit Maranville
Rube Marquard
Bill Mazeroski
Tommy McCarthy
Jack Morris
Herb Pennock
Tony Perez
Kirby Puckett
Sam Rice
Jim Rice
Phil Rizzuto
Ray Schalk
Red Schoendienst
Lee Smith
Hilton Smith
Bruce Sutter
Ben Taylor
Joe Tinker
Pie Traynor
Lloyd Waner
Mickey Welch
Vic Willis
Hack Wilson
Ross Youngs

20. John DiFool2 Posted: January 26, 2019 at 01:43 PM (#5809140)

Can anyone tell me why Kenny Lofton is still waiting, while Jim Edmonds got elected pretty quickly? Kenny isn't dealing with the huge logjam that Cooperstown finally worked itself through (?), he doesn't have the numerous comparable contemporaries at the same position that many people have mentioned w.r.t. Helton, nor the issues with the various conflicting defensive metrics that have dogged Andruw (as in D makes up more of the latter's case, so a small deduction probably moves him below a lot of people's lines--tho again maybe Lofton has the same issues). JAWS seems to give Lofton small but across the board edges there.

[edit: Lofton also has some talented CF competition: Griffey, Edmonds, Beltran, A. Jones, & Bernie Williams, perhaps even Johnny Damon if you like.]

21. DL from MN Posted: January 26, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5809143)

why Kenny Lofton is still waiting, while Jim Edmonds got elected pretty quickly

Jim Edmonds is just enough better than Lofton

22. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 26, 2019 at 02:31 PM (#5809146)

Lofton's only better if you have full confidence in TZ defense and replacement levels by Baseball-Reference.

Edmonds demolishes Lofton in Kiko's stat, 210.7 to 110.2.
https://baseball.tomthress.com/Leaders/UberLeaders.php

Kikos, Baseball Gauge, and Baseball Reference assessment of defense in wins.
JE: 10.7, 10.2, 3.2
KL: 6.0, 2.7, 10.5

I'm feeling Edmonds is THE most underrated position player of the past 25 years, at minimum a mid-tier HOF candidate that was one-and-done and is often questioned by intelligent baseball minds like John DiFool2.

23. Carl Goetz Posted: January 26, 2019 at 04:17 PM (#5809169)

Ok, here's my first crack at Redding. I posted the question of his cap in the Redding thread; for now, I have him with Royal Giants, but am open to putting him with the Lincoln Giants as well.
Dick Redding - 2019 - P
Parts of 22 seasons with Lincoln Giants 1911-1914, 1915-1916; Lincoln Stars 1914-1915; Indianapolis ABCs 1915; Chicago American Giants 1917; Brooklyn Royal Giants 1918-1919, 1923-1931; Bacharach Giants 1919-1922, 1932
Cap: Brooklyn Royal Giants (ECL)
Dick Redding was one of the greatest pitchers in Negro League history. Legendary team owner, Cumberland Posey Jr. named him the #2 pitcher in Negro League history, one slot ahead of Satchel Paige. He earned the nickname “Cannonball” thanks to his overpowering speed. Cannonball Dick’s fastball was feared by opposing hitters and he wouldn’t hesitate to intimidate a hitter by coming inside. Redding is credited with 30 No-hitters against all levels of opposition during his career. Known as a fun-loving, easy-going player, Buck Leonard said “He never argued, never cursed, never smoked as I recall; I never saw him take a drink”. A superstitious player, Redding was known to buy a new glove if he lost a game and would wear the same shirt for multiple games. He also served combat duty in France in 1918.
The 6’4” Righthander from Georgia joined the Philadelphia Giants in 1911 at age 21, but by mid-season was a member of the New York Lincoln Giants. Over the next few years, he formed possibly the greatest pitching 1-2 punch of all-time with Smokey Joe Williams. In 1912, he was credited with “several” No-hitters, including one against the Cuban Giants. He was a member of several Championship teams, including the 1912&1913; Lincoln Giants (East), 1915 Lincoln Stars (East), 1917 Chicago American Giants (West), and 1919 Bacharach Giants (East). He was credited with 134 (2nd All-time on Seamheads) career wins in league play (includes Cuba) plus many more while barnstorming. Redding was also 2nd on the all-time strikeout list with 1247. Eric Chalek’s updated MLEs show a 93.0 career WAR which led to the comment; “Redding is to Smokey Joe Williams almost exactly as Pete Alexander was to Walter Johnson.” Redding also spent much of the latter half of his career as a player-manager for both the Bacharach Giants and Brooklyn Royal Giants.

I lost my formatting, so we'll need to get that back before posting. I used Wikipedia, Seamheads, Hall of Miller and Eric website, Baseball reference and the Negro League Baseball eMuseum as sources. Let me know if you have thoughts/comments on anything. For now, I'll move on to either Mo or Halladay while I wait.

24. Carl Goetz Posted: January 26, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5809189)

Mo required a little less research. Used Wikipedia and Baseball-Reference as sources. Please let me know if you find errors or things I missed. I require no assistance on the Cap for this one. :)

Mariano Rivera - 2019 - P
19 seasons with New York Yankees 1995-2013
Cap: New York Yankees (AL)
Known as “Sandman” for putting games to bed, Mariano “Mo” Rivera is widely considered to be the greatest relief pitcher of all-time. Rivera was known primarily for his mid-90s cut fastball which was nearly impossible for lefthanded batters to hit and is considered to be one of the most dominant pitches of all time. Chipper Jones described the pitch as a “buzz saw”. Besides his signature pitch, Mo was also known for precise control and a reserved, business-like demeanor on the mound.
The Panamanian righthander signed with the Yankees in 1990 and for the next 5 years, was groomed as a starting pitcher. A rough 10 starts in 1995 as well as 51/3 scoreless innings in relief in the 1995 Division Series convinced the Yankees to move him to the bullpen in 1996. From 1997-2013, Mo was the Yankees primary closer. Rivera was a major contributor to 5 World Series Champions (1996,1998-2000,2009), 2 additional American League Champions (2001 & 2003), 13 Eastern Division Winners, and 4 Wild Card Winners. Mo was one of the single most dominant players in postseason history. In 141 IPs over 96 Games, he posted a 0.70 ERA, 0.759 WHIP, 110 Ks, only 2 HRs allowed, an 8-1 Record, and 42 Saves. In the regular season, he is the all-time career leader in Saves (652), Games Finished (952), and ERA+ (205). His career WHIP of 1.000 is good for 3rd all-time. He led the AL in Saves 3 times (1999,2001,2004). He compiled 12 seasons with an ERA+ of at least 200 (60 IP minimum), including 2 seasons of at least 300. The 13-time All-Star (1997,1999-2002,2004-2006,2008-2011,2013) won the Rolaids Relief Award 5 times (1999,2001,2004,2005,2009), a World Series MVP (1999), and an ALCS MVP (2003). Mo also finished top 5 in CY Young voting 5 different times.

25. Carl Goetz Posted: January 26, 2019 at 05:23 PM (#5809193)

That's all for today. I'll tackle Halladay tomorrow and hopefully will have some feedback on Cannonball and Mo.

26. John DiFool2 Posted: January 27, 2019 at 12:05 AM (#5809223)

I'm feeling Edmonds is THE most underrated position player of the past 25 years, at minimum a mid-tier HOF candidate that was one-and-done and is often questioned by intelligent baseball minds like John DiFool2.

Have ZERO idea what bed you dragged that straw man out from. You can save the needless sarcasm too. I think they both belong, if you want to know. Just wondering why the in/out line was drawn between these two CFers, when I cannot see much of a gap between them at all.

While I don't advocate junking every last defensive analysis out there certainly, if the various metrics can vary by THAT much, I'm not sure what definite & precise conclusions you can draw. Pretty mind-boggling if you ask me.

In any event Lofton is probably a lock by 2021 at the latest, given the upcoming candidates for the next two elections.

27. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 27, 2019 at 07:41 AM (#5809227)

Apologies, no sarcasm meant, I respect the group of folks around here and was just surprised that yourself and others have Edmonds as borderline in/out, with B-R WAR the exceedingly popular measure being the low man bringing him closer to the border, while the other metrics have him mid-tier or better.

If your trim Lofton's low level filler seasons and adjust each for strike seasons, you get ~8000 PA per player:
JE: 131 wRC+ career, 168, 157, 156, 149, 148, 139, 134*, 125, 124, 124. * for seasons with < 130 games played.
KL: 114 wRC+ career, 142, 125, 125*, 118*, 115*, 109, 108, 108, 108, 107.

Kikos, Baseball Gauge, and Baseball Reference assessment of defense in wins, plus an average.
JE: 10.7, 10.2, 3.2, 8.0
KL: 6.0, 2.7, 10.5, 6.4

Edmonds is clearly the better hitter, while he may have been the better defender (he shows as such on average), so I don't personally see these guys as really close to one another. Though bemoaned for durability, Jimmy actually nudges by Kenny in games played per year, 143 to 138.

Let's compare Lofton with the other "leading" OF candidate and somewhat contemporary Andruw Jones...

Lopping off Andruw's below replacement Dodger campaign and first and last filler seasons...

KL: 114 wRC+ career, 142, 125, 125*, 118*, 115*, 109, 108, 108, 108, 107.
AJ: 114 wRC+ career, 134, 130, 127, 124, 118, 113, 112, 112, 97, 96.

Kikos, Baseball Gauge, and Baseball Reference assessment of defense in wins, plus an average.
KL: 6.0, 2.7, 10.5, 6.4
AJ: 15.4, 20.0, 23.0, 19.5

So general question for those with Lofton > Andruw, is this a strength of league thing, something else as Andruw is a comparable hitter but better fielder?

28. Howie Menckel Posted: January 27, 2019 at 11:08 AM (#5809266)

Excellent work in 24, Carl!

one quibble: while Rivera's 'walk-in music' was "Enter Sandman" by Metallica (same for Billy Wagner fyi), I live in the NY area and never once heard a living soul call him "The Sandman." I'm amazed that it is listed in some places online as a nickname for him.

also, Rivera wouldn't be thrilled to have that as his lead-in:

https://foxsports1280.iheart.com/content/2019-01-23-mariano-rivera-refuses-to-listen-to-metallica-citing-his-religion/

"As a Christian, with all due respect to Metallica, I don't listen to that kind of music," Rivera added.

29. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 27, 2019 at 11:44 AM (#5809291)

"As a Christian, with all due respect to Metallica, I don't listen to that kind of music," Rivera added.

Maybe he should have had Celine Dion for his walk-up instead?
Yikes, he even acknowledges liking the guys.

30. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 27, 2019 at 12:31 PM (#5809308)

What I think is odd is the idea that Metallica and Christian faith are mutually exclusive. I’m no expert on Metallica, but a number of their songs speak to matters of justice or tell stories of people. They aren’t Slayer or something. Maybe his denomination still considers the Blues scale to be the devil’s music?

31. Carl Goetz Posted: January 28, 2019 at 10:36 AM (#5809512)

Huh, The Sandman nickname is one I recall from a while back and then saw on Wikipedia and Baseball Reference as well. Not sure where to go with this.

Sorry for the delay on Halladay. I had planned to be home yesterday, but got a last minute ticket to the Brewers fan fest, so the day got completely away from me. I'll get that done in the next couple days.

32. progrockfan Posted: January 28, 2019 at 05:27 PM (#5809727)

[rants]

"As a Christian, with all due respect to Metallica, I don't listen to that kind of music," Rivera added.

Seriously? "That kind of music"??

Metllica's original guitarist and co-founding member was a born-again Christian!

I'll bet Mariano is completely unaware of that fact. Or maybe it doesn't matter to him, because heavy metal is automatically Satanic. That's the strong vibe I get from this quote.

Methinks Mariano takes the definition of "closer" a tad too seriously. You close the game, Mariano, not your mind.

Athletes can be really smart: Muhammad Ali for instance, or Jackie Robinson, or Jim Brown, or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Then there's Tom Brady and his hat. Like the brain-dead collegiates who insist that Jesus helped them score that touchdown, Mariano has demonstrated - in case there was any lingering doubt - that consummate athleticism doesn't guarantee even league-average brainpower.

(Apologies to the potentially offended - but stuff like this crawls right up my nose... )

[/rants]

33. karlmagnus Posted: January 28, 2019 at 08:06 PM (#5809783)

I had never heard of Metallica and thought when I read about it that Rivera entered to this song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNUgsbKisp8

Not, I grant you, very imposing for a closer, but I thought they might be using reverse psychology.

34. theorioleway Posted: January 28, 2019 at 09:07 PM (#5809801)

#17: Carl, I'm glad you're taking over the plaque writing - I've run out of time for it. I did them for 2014-2016, although I don't know if they ever got officially posted on the website. I'll post here for you to review and tweak as you please.

#32. While I agree that Rivera's quote doesn't hold up to scrutiny, I would kindly suggest not closing your mind to the idea that those "brain-dead collegiates" might not be wrong that Jesus helps them score touchdowns. Not in the sense that Jesus is rooting for their team rather than the other one, but that he gave them the gifts possible to succeed. After all, there is no concrete evidence that he hasn't. And the athletes you mention as smart were religious (albeit not necessarily Christian). Just something to think about.

35. Howie Menckel Posted: January 28, 2019 at 09:34 PM (#5809817)

I learned a loooooooong time ago to be wary of people who tell you how close-minded OTHER people are. not them, of course. they have it all figured out. it's the OTHER GUY.
:)

36. Howie Menckel Posted: January 28, 2019 at 10:23 PM (#5809829)

P.S.
Sorry to contribute to the sidetrack.
I think I'll stick to baseball.

37. progrockfan Posted: January 29, 2019 at 06:44 AM (#5809839)

@theorioleway:

#32. While I agree that Rivera's quote doesn't hold up to scrutiny, I would kindly suggest not closing your mind to the idea that those "brain-dead collegiates" might not be wrong that Jesus helps them score touchdowns. Not in the sense that Jesus is rooting for their team rather than the other one, but that he gave them the gifts possible to succeed. After all, there is no concrete evidence that he hasn't. And the athletes you mention as smart were religious (albeit not necessarily Christian). Just something to think about.

Excellent points. Can't disagree.

@Howie Menckel:

I learned a loooooooong time ago to be wary of people who tell you how close-minded OTHER people are. not them, of course. they have it all figured out. it's the OTHER GUY.

Ad hominem attack, straw man fallacy, and just plain rude.

38. progrockfan Posted: January 29, 2019 at 07:35 AM (#5809848)

...But you know what, Howie? I saw Mariano's quote, read Dr. Chaleeko's response, and took the bait. Religion probably doesn't belong here. Maybe I stepped on your toes. If I did, I apologise. As you yourself said:

Sorry to contribute to the sidetrack. I think I'll stick to baseball.

39. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: January 29, 2019 at 08:12 AM (#5809851)

I think that quote might be taken a little out of context or being blown up.

I mean he's from Panama, I doubt that Metallica is high on his list, Christian or not. I don't think it makes him that closed minded. If he is that Christian, enough to bring it up, I seriously doubt he's listening to any popular music, not just heavy metal. He probably doesn't listen to Taylor Swift or The Beatles either. Doesn't mean he cares if you do when he's in the same room. If he did, he would have cut off the entry song before it ever became a thing. Maybe he's a big Lifehouse fan :-)

And I'm sure it's not a big deal, because Metallica played the song live, in the Stadium the day they retired his number. If he was so Christian as to really be opposed to that kind of thing, that would not have happened. It's a throw away quote and nothing at all should be made of it.

I take the quote as, that type of music is not my thing. But hey, the fans liked it and it was fun that it became a thing.

40. Carl Goetz Posted: January 29, 2019 at 09:49 AM (#5809874)

I feel like I've also heard him quoted as saying he respected the members of the band, but couldn't find it with a quick check now. I'm guessing if he told the Yankees to stop playing the song, they would have done it. I doubt he was that against it.

41. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 29, 2019 at 01:35 PM (#5810021)

Not my intention to bait anyone about Rivera's musical taste. You all know by now that sometimes I do like to make note of oddities in the behavior and words of players, voters, and baseball-related individuals.

42. Carl Goetz Posted: January 29, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5810126)

Roy Halladay - 2019 - P
16 seasons with Toronto Bluejays 1998-2009; Philadelphia Phillies 2010-2013
Cap: Toronto Bluejays (AL)
Known as a durable, old-school type pitcher, Doc Halladay retired as the active leader in complete games with 67. On May 29th, 2010, he threw the 20th Perfect Game in MLB history. On October 6th, 2010, he threw the 2nd No-Hitter in Postseason history while becoming the 5th pitcher to throw two No-Hitters in one season. Halladay is also one of only six pitchers to win a Cy Young in both the American and National leagues. The Righthander from Colorado featured a 2-seam sinking fastball, a 4-seam fastball, a cut fastball, and a curveball. He added a split-changeup when he joined the Phillies in 2010. Halladay was known for going into "isolation mode" before and during starts. He would not talk to anyone besides his manager and pitching coach in order to achieve complete concentration.
Halladay led his league in IPs 4 times (2002,2003,2008,2010) and threw over 200 IPs in 8 different seasons. He led his league in complete games 7 times and batters faced 3 times. He won 20 games 3 times (2003,2008,2010). Doc won 2 Cy Young awards (2003,2010), finished 2nd twice (2008,2011) and top 5 in 3 more seasons. Additionally, he was named to 8 All-Star teams (2002,2003,2005,2006,2008-2011).

Note on Cap: Earned about 75%-80% of WAR in Toronto and only had 2 good years in Philly. Even though they were probably his best 2, don't see this as a close decision.

Ok, that's all of 2019. I'll go back and do the 2017 & 2018 inductees, but it might be a few weeks on those.

43. DL from MN Posted: September 24, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5882545)

I appreciate the state of "benign neglect" here but it would be nice to have an updated plaque room...

44. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Posted: September 24, 2019 at 03:28 PM (#5882675)

OCF, if you're still out there, I miss your analysis of who had the most eccentric ballots.

Whoever left Mo completely off their ballot wins that competition hands down.

45. bachslunch Posted: September 24, 2019 at 06:19 PM (#5882716)

@44: I did this, and for a very good reason. I’m pretty strict when it comes to BBRef WAR as my basis (at least WRT position, though I do give extra credit to skill position players who hit well) and I don’t differentiate between starters or relievers. Even the best reliever unfortunately doesn’t amass the amount of WAR a starter does, and I see no reason to treat “reliever” as a separate position.

I don’t see this as eccentric at all, given the assumptions I’m going with. Mo ranked 22nd for me, seven slots off ballot. And I’m not apologizing for it. Everyone else had Mo on their ballot, most very high up — and for my taste, the rationales used struck me as illogical and eccentric, almost as if folks just felt he was the best player and were trying to shoehorn him in at the top any way they could. But maybe that’s just me. They’re welcome to their way of thinking, and I would hope they believe I’m welcome to mine.

46. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Posted: September 24, 2019 at 10:21 PM (#5882775)

No need to apologize for holding an opinion, even though I think that here you're completely missing the forest for the trees. But then this is why although I like the idea of the Hall of Merit, I'm glad the Hall of Fame doesn't just rubberstamp their selections and use nothing but statistics in making its choices. IMO there are more than a few deserving HoFers I can see not deserving a HoM selection, and a handful vice versa.

47. TomH Posted: September 25, 2019 at 08:23 AM (#5882848)

Apologies for a somewhat off-topic request, but this seems the best forum to inquire - does anyone have a subscription to Bill Jame Online? I see he is posting an updated top 100 players at each position; similar I assume to what was in the NBJHA, which is now about 20 years since his research was last completed. I would be interested in seeing where his ranking might have moved during that time, particularly w.r.t modern guys (Bonds, Pujols, A-Rod, Jeter, Chipper, Griffey Jr, Bagwelll, Thomas, Biggio (maybe he lowered him a tad?), Cabrera, Beltre). And of course, some guy with a fishy surname.

48. kwarren Posted: October 10, 2019 at 11:25 AM (#5888831)

I don’t see this as eccentric at all, given the assumptions I’m going with. Mo ranked 22nd for me, seven slots off ballot. And I’m not apologizing for it. Everyone else had Mo on their ballot, most very high up — and for my taste, the rationales used struck me as illogical and eccentric, almost as if folks just felt he was the best player and were trying to shoehorn him in at the top any way they could. But maybe that’s just me. They’re welcome to their way of thinking, and I would hope they believe I’m welcome to mine.

Finally I see somebody is expressing the same viewpoint as me. I had him 15th on my ballot, which gave him credit for his post season performance which traditional WAR does not.

It's interesting to note that the season that Liam Hendriks had in 2019 was better than every season Mariano had except 1996. No other season is even close really. Makes you wonder why Rivera is so revered. I sort of know why, but I'm not drinking the koolade. The rationale is based on low ERA, high saves total, consistency, New York Yankee effect, post season success, and career length...but in terms of actual games won for his team he is on a par with David Wells (even with leverage built in). Nothing wrong with this, but his contribution is nowhere near where all the hype would suggest.

49. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 10, 2019 at 01:12 PM (#5888945)

It's interesting to note that the season that Liam Hendriks had in 2019 was better than every season Mariano had except 1996.

I guess you're using fWAR? By bWAR, Mo had eight seasons better than Hendriks' 2019, and one tied.

Given that Rivera's ERA was half a run below his FIP over the course of 1,283 IP, despite pitching in front of a generally poor Yankees defense, I would tend to look more at dWAR than fWAR. Just going by bats broken, it's not hard to believe that Rivera had an actual ability to outperform his FIP.

50. Howie Menckel Posted: October 10, 2019 at 02:33 PM (#5888992)

if Rivera had never pitched in the postseason, he would have plummeted more down my ballot than of many others, I suspect. that's what got him well into the upper half, for me.

51. kwarren Posted: October 18, 2019 at 01:07 AM (#5891507)

Pitchers Listed By Jaws Starting at #120

Mickey Lolich 42.9
Kenny Rogers 42.8
Mariano Riveria 42.5 (unaminous HOF selection)
Tommy Bridges 42.3
Dolf Luque 42.2
George Mullin 42.0

Please discuss.

52. kwarren Posted: October 18, 2019 at 01:08 AM (#5891508)

Pitchers Listed By Jaws Starting at #120

Mickey Lolich 42.9
Kenny Rogers 42.8
Mariano Riveria 42.5 (unaminous HOF selection)
Tommy Bridges 42.3
Dolf Luque 42.2
George Mullin 42.0

Please discuss.

53. kwarren Posted: October 18, 2019 at 01:13 AM (#5891509)

54. cookiedabookie Posted: October 18, 2019 at 10:07 AM (#5891550)

@kwarren The lowest innings pitched among that group outside of Rivera was Bridges - and he still pitched more than twice as many innings. Most of them pitched almost three times as many innings. So Mariano had a similar quality career (according to JAWS), but in significantly fewer innings. That sounds like an argument in his favor, not against him.

55. kwarren Posted: October 18, 2019 at 10:43 AM (#5891568)

The lowest innings pitched among that group outside of Rivera was Bridges - and he still pitched more than twice as many innings. Most of them pitched almost three times as many innings. So Mariano had a similar quality career (according to JAWS), but in significantly fewer innings. That sounds like an argument in his favor, not against him.

Having a low amount of playing time is not an argument for being voted in the Hall of Merit. You wouldn't put a player in the Hall of Merit at any other position if he had 1/3 of the playing time. You are only doing it for pitchers and for Mariano Rivera, specifically.

56. bjhanke Posted: October 20, 2019 at 07:16 AM (#5892275)

On the plaque for Mariano Rivera - The only real complaint that I have is with the statement that he was the greatest relief pitcher of all time. I would change that to he was the greatest CLOSER of all time. I still think that Hoyt Wilhelm was a better relief pitcher, because he pitched more innings. I would be very susceptible to an argument that Rivera was the #2 relief pitcher of all time.

TomH - I subscribe to Bill James Online. Yes, he has come up with a new rating method and is going through the playing positions one by one. He's up to Center Field now. The new system, which he calls the "double-pyramid" system, is detailed in a post before any of the rankings, so you'd need to scroll down some to find it. The method is odd, and I think that Bill is more trying to see what its strengths and weaknesses are than actually advocating for it. So far, the largest difference between these new rankings and the ones in the Hew Historical is that several of the 19th-century players have moved up. Bill seems to not be too happy with what happened to them in the New Historical Win Shares system. The new system is also unforgiving of short careers, even if brilliant. And players whose value is heavily in defense, as opposed to offense, are doing poorly in the new system.

57. Jaack Posted: October 20, 2019 at 04:51 PM (#5892351)

@kwarren

JAWS relies on bbref WAR, which is based on RA (with some adjustments that I rather dislike, but those aren't the concern at the moment). RA is a rather blunt tool - it does a poor job of crediting runs to the right pitcher in many circumstances.

For example:
A pitcher gets two outs before allowing a single. He is removed and his replacement walks three straight batters before getting an out. The first pitcher is credited with 1 run in 2/3 inning while the latter, who clearly pitched worse, is credited with 0 runs over 1/3 inning. This is clearly poor crediting of runs.

A second scenario:
A pitcher loads the bases before being removed. His replacement gets three consecutive outs to end the threat. Both pitchers are credited 0 runs. This ignores the poor pitching of the first pitcher completely. It also doesn't credit the second one for pitching with a smaller margin for error.

For starting pitchers, who pitch the entirity of most of their innings, this system works mostly ok, and over a long career the poor measurement of those partial innings will likely balance out. For relief pitchers, who are far more likely to both enter and exit games partially through an inning, this system largely breaks down.

Conviently, RE24/REW does account for this, crediting pitchers with partial runs. If a pitcher pitches a full inning, RE24 will credit them functionally identically to RA. But in partial innings, RE24 will more accurately distribute the runs between the pitchers.

Pitchers by REW
Carl Hubbell - 36.50
Kevin Brown - 36.25
Gaylord Perry - 35.35
Mariano Rivera - 34.72
Don Sutton - 34.25
Red Ruffing - 32.91
Sandy Koufax - 32.85

All are HoMers, and aside from Kevin Brown, all are HoFers as well.

Now also note that REW does NOT take into account leverage based on score/inning state. Since Rivera's innings largely came in higher leverage game states, he'd move up if you included them (which you should). Those rankings also do not include postseason games, which again, should be considered and again would benefit Rivera.

58. Qufini Posted: October 22, 2019 at 09:21 AM (#5892720)

I'd like to get around to a comparison between the top modern outfielders on this year's ballot: Lofton, Jones, Sosa and Abreu. For me, Lofton's consistency impresses more than Jones' young peak, while Sosa's peak is more impressive than Abreu's year-to-year consistency.

59. bachslunch Posted: November 06, 2019 at 08:23 AM (#5899018)

I realize it's not popular here, but I don't give credit or debit for war, injury, illness, postseason play, or minor league service. Obviously mileage varies on this.

Rivera would likely benefit quite a bit from his postseason play.

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Wednesday, January 09, 2019

Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera, and “Cannonball” Dick Redding elected - Hall of Merit Class of 2019

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