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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

2020 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion

2020 (December 2019)—elect 4

Top 10 Returning Players
Luis Tiant (263), Todd Helton (251), Kenny Lofton (217), Andruw Jones (201), Ben Taylor (196), Jeff Kent (188), Johan Santana (176), Wally Schang (153), Sammy Sosa (148), Lance Berkman (135)

Newly eligible players

Player Name	HOFm	HOFs	WAR	WAR7	JAWS	Jpos
Derek Jeter	337	67	72.4	42.4	57.4	55
Bobby Abreu	95	54	60	41.6	50.8	56.8
Jason Giambi	108	44	50.5	42.2	46.4	54.7
Cliff Lee	72	30	43.5	39.8	41.7	61.7
Rafael Furcal	54	32	39.4	30.7	35.1	55
Eric Chavez	29	25	37.5	31.1	34.3	55.7
Josh Beckett	43	23	35.7	31.2	33.4	61.7
Brian Roberts	34	24	30.4	28.1	29.2	56.9
Alfonso Soriano	105	31	28.2	27.3	27.8	53.6
Paul Konerko	80	36	27.7	21.5	24.6	54.7
Carlos Pena	25	18	25.1	24.1	24.6	54.7
Chone Figgins	18	19	22.2	22.5	22.3	55.7
Marco Scutaro	11	19	22.1	20.9	21.5	55
Raul Ibanez	38	27	20.4	20.1	20.2	53.6
Brad Penny	23	11	19.1	21.5	20.3	61.7
Jason Bartlett	15	5	18.3	19.6	18.9	55
Adam Dunn	75	32	17.4	17.7	17.6	53.6
Lyle Overbay	12	13	16.8	16.7	16.7	54.7
J.J. Putz	25	17	13.1	12.9	13	32.7
Jose Valverde	51	13	11.5	12	11.7	32.7
Ryan Ludwick	13	14	11.2	13.5	12.4	56.8
Alex Gonzalez	11	19	9.2	12.8	11	55
Jamey Wright	10	2	9.1	10.1	9.6	32.7
Joe Saunders	10	3	8.6	10.1	9.3	61.7
Heath Bell	31	13	7.1	8.9	8	32.7
Nate McLouth	10	12	6.4	10.2	8.3	57.8
Kyle Farnsworth	22	4	6.2	9.3	7.8	32.7

we’re alternating “elect 3” and “elect 4” years

2020, 2022, 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2036-37, 2039, 2041 are elect 4

DL from MN Posted: January 23, 2019 at 01:21 PM | 357 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   301. Howie Menckel Posted: December 03, 2019 at 02:04 PM (#5905283)
this Merits a bump
   302. bachslunch Posted: December 03, 2019 at 02:07 PM (#5905284)
@294: I did drop UA stats when drawing up the list for McCormick, which seemed like the right thing to do if they're possibly suspect. And even when you drop all of McCormick's UA earned credit, he still beats Tiant (who ranks 2nd) for best BBRef WAR for pitchers. If we're going to start getting too complicated with this, I'm out -- frankly, there's a limit as to how far I'm willing to finagle. We're supposed to have a system and stick to it, and that's what I'm doing. Frankly, this all just seems like a somewhat more systematic approach to strategic voting, essentially Mariano Rivera in reverse (who I didn't vote for).

Also, my adjustment for pre-expansion players is not systematic, just a guess, and I've been told this is required -- and that's as far I'm willing to go there as well. And if it's not required, I won't do it. In fact, if we're adjusting in the other direction because of a non-integrated league (re Schang vs. Munson), one wonders if the two issues would cancel each other out. Does this only hold for 1947-1960 then? One wonders.

Look, my ballots have looked pretty middle of the road except for McCormick and Rivera. I'm thinking I'm doing something right, if so. Most everybody's got a wild card guy on their ballot or a player everyone else is voting for who is off ballot who fits their approach.
   303. Carl Goetz Posted: December 03, 2019 at 03:01 PM (#5905310)
I'm not saying you are required to make adjustments for 19th Century pitchers. Just saying that McCormick rates higher than Tiant because he was a 19th Century pitcher and not because he was a better pitcher. Making adjustments for era differences is not strategic voting; its analysis. This is why we post ballots; so others can read them and ask questions or critique; maybe even try to change your mind. We aren't the BBWAA; we are open minded and engaging with each other. No one is saying your ballot is "bad"; just pointing out why the notable difference (McCormick) is occurring. There's no requirement that you agree with my assessment, let alone act on it, but I have every right to provide it.
Also, I don't think there's a specific rule that says you have to have a system and stick with it; just that you have to explain why you did what you did. There's no such thing as a perfect system. If I have a player on my ballot that's out of the mainstream, I'll spend a longer time on my explanation. If I'm right in the mainstream, maybe its only a few words.

"In fact, if we're adjusting in the other direction because of a non-integrated league (re Schang vs. Munson), one wonders if the two issues would cancel each other out."
I would say that this depends on the situation. I don't think there's a set formula to create. In terms of Schang vs Munson (and I'm an 'in' on both), I'd say catching was probably harder on a player in the 10s/20s than in the 70s. My personal opinion is that greater toll on a catcher and adjusting for the shorter schedule would outweigh the nonintegration issue. That, and I have Schang as the best catcher (along with Santop) between Bresnahan and the mid 20s to early 40s glut. That's about a 20 year period. I have Munson as #4 in the 70s/early 80s behind Bench, Carter, and Fisk. I try not to overweight that since sometimes there's just gluts/droughts at various positions, but it is a point in Schang's favor.
As far as pitchers in the 1870s and 1880s are concerned, the job was very different from what it became even in the late 90s and early 20th Century. That difference in what an average pitcher could do needs a big adjustment in my opinion. My solution is to view this group of pitchers almost as a separate position and compare them against each other to decide which were the best. I look at WAR/WAA/WAG compared to each other but not compared to later pitchers who basically had a different job. Again; just telling you what I do. There's no requirement you handle the problem the same way.
   304. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 03, 2019 at 03:02 PM (#5905312)
LEACH looks like a no-go based on the lack of PBP data,

LAZZERI:. Poosh 'em Up Tony loses value when we include the PBP. I estimate he's a -18 runner whereas BBREF shows +5. I'm estimating -3 on GIDPs. So en toto, he loses 26 runs, or two-and-a-half wins.

RIZZUTO: PBP shows Scooter worth about 12 runs in the four years with missing PBP data versus 6 runs on BBREF. In addition, I estimate about 1.5 missing DP runs. so en toto, 7.5 runs, or less than a win's worth of difference.

Here's a couple more I've worked up today:

KLEIN: PBP estimate shows about 10.5 runs on the bases versus -3 for Rbaser on BBREF. Additionally, I estimate about +21 runs of DP avoidance. However, he loses about seven runs of arm value against DRA.

I looked at Al Simmons too because he's interesting. Simmons was a really great all around player. PBP gives him about +21 runs on the bases versus the 2 BBREF gives him. I'm calculating -8 runs on DP avoidance, though I did a special calculation for that because DP info only picks up in his age-32 season, and after that season he completely lost his wheels. So essentially all his bad DP years are in his mid-late thirties. Also, a good thrower with +19 in RF, +9 in CF (and -0 in RF in a handful of games). That's about 28 runs versus the -11 DRA shows.

Also Edd Roush: Gains about 9 runs on the bases (-0 by PBP versus -9 on BBREF), adds 6.5 runs of DP avoidance, loses about 1.5 runs for throwing vs. DRA. Net add of about 14 runs. Note: We're missing more than half his career, so this is quite provisional.

And finally, Rabbit Maranville: Picks up seven runs in PBP running vs BBREF (12 vs 5), about -10 runs in DP avoidance, no OF throwing to speak of. So the total is a loss of about 3 runs. Sorry Rabbiteers!

Obviously, I'm just picking away at guys I'm interested in now that some main candidates have been updated. Just let me know if there's anyone else you'd like to see.

   305. rwargo Posted: December 03, 2019 at 03:48 PM (#5905335)
As a sanity check, I like to split into 25 year eras. All of our pitchers except Rollie Fingers have at least 25WAA (adjusting for relievers) For pitchers, we have elected:

1871-1895 - 10
1896-1920 - 17 (12 MLB, 5 NLB)
1921-1945 - 14 (11 MLB, 3 NLB)
1946-1970 - 18
1971-1995 - 16


From 1871-1895 - we have elected all 14 pitchers over 32 WAA except 4 - Tommy Bond, Jim McCormick, Charlie Buffinton, and Tony Mullane. Bond is #5, McCormick #6, Buffinton #9, and Mullane #12 in this period. There are 6 more pitchers over 25 WAA.

From 1896-1920 - we have all 14 pitchers over 30 WAA except 3 - Vic Willis, Babe Adams, and Urban Shocker. Plus we elected Red Faber and Eppa Rixey below that number. Willis is #8, Adams #9, and Shocker #14 in this period. There are another 10 pitchers over 25 WAA.

From 1921-1945 - we have elected all 15 pitchers over 25 WAA except 4 - Dizzy Dean, Bucky Walters, Dizzy Trout, and Tommy Bridges. Dean is #9, Walters #11, Trout #12, and Bridges #14 in this period.

From 1946-1970 - we have elected all 17 pitchers over 31 WAA except 1 - Luis Tiant, who is #11 in this period, and ahead of Bunning, Palmer, Drysdale, Marichal, Ford, and Koufax. Also we elected Don Sutton, only at 25.5 WAA. There are another 8 pitchers over 25 WAA from this period, including Sutton. Wilbur Wood is the only player between 30 and 31 WAA from this period. We also elected Rollie Fingers.

From 1971-1995 - we have elected all 16 pitchers over 33 WAA and none below that number. There are another 14 pitchers above 25 WAA from this period. Appier, Gooden, and Hershiser are each over 30WAA.

From 1996-2020 - we have elected Roy Halladay. Among elgibles, Johan Santana has over 33 WAA, and Roy Oswalt (32.9) is close. Zambrano, Cliff Lee, and Javier Vazquez are eligibles below 33 and above 25 WAA.

Overall, only 12 pitchers remain over the threshholds for each era, about 1/2 of whom are 19th century guys or deadballers. After electing Tiant, we will generally be looking at the bottom of available pitchers in every era.
   306. rwargo Posted: December 03, 2019 at 03:59 PM (#5905337)
Sanity Check - C, 2B, 3B, SS, with bonus for catchers. Also, these are debut years. We have elected:

1871-1895 - 21 (19 MLB, 2 NLB)
1896-1920 - 15 (9 MLB, 6 NLB)
1921-1945 - 17 (13 MLB, 4 NLB)
1946-1970 - 20
1971-1995 - 19
1996-2020 - 1

From 1871-1895 - we have elected all 15 players over 22 WAA except 2 - Denny Lyons and Fred Dunlap. We also elected Monte Ward, Ross Barnes, George Wright, Ezra Sutton, Cal McVey, and Dickey Pearce.
From 1896-1920 - we have elected all 13 players over 25 WAA except 5 - Wally Schang, Joe Tinker, Art Fletcher, Dave Bancroft, and Larry Doyle. We also elected Joe Sewell (23.6) who really belongs in the next era.
From 1921-1945 - we have elected all 16 players over 25 WAA except 3 - Ernie Lombardi, Travis Jackson, and Vern Stephens. Remember catchers adjusted.
From 1946-1970 - we have elected all 25 players over 25 WAA except 6 - Sal Bando, Thurman Munson, Gene Tenace, Toby Harrah, Jim Fregosi, and Bert Campaneris. Electee Nellie Fox is just outside at 24.8 WAA.
From 1971-1995 - we have elected all 22 players over 33 WAA except 3 - Alex Rodriguez (not eligible), Derek Jeter (this year) and Buddy Bell (at the bottom). There are another 7 players below 33 and above 25 WAA.
From 1996-2020 - we have elected Scott Rolen. There are two eligibles above 25, but not 30 WAA, Nomar Garciaparra (29.2) and Jason Kendall (26.8).

We are generally voting for the remaining people on this list. or just below the thressholds.

   307. rwargo Posted: December 03, 2019 at 04:10 PM (#5905343)
Sanity Check - 1B, OF. Again, debut years. No adjustments here. We have elected:

1871-1895 - 20
1896-1920 - 17 (13 MLB, 4 NLB)
1921-1945 - 23 (16 MLB, 7 NLB)
1946-1970 - 20
1971-1995 - 20
1996-2020 - 1

Remarkably consistent.

From 1871-1895 - we have elected all 17 players over 22 WAA except Mike Smith. We also elected George Gore, Joe Start, Charley Jones, and Lip Pike.
From 1896-1920 - we have elected all 13 players over 25 WAA except Frank Chance. We also elected Jimmy Sheckard (22.2)
From 1921-1945 - we have elected all 19 players over 25 WAA except Bob Johnson, Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson, and Kiki Cuyler. Electee Enos Slaughter is just outside at 24.8 WAA. Only Johnson is above 30 WAA.
From 1946-1970 - we have elected all 22 players over 29 WAA except Bobby Bonds and Cesar Cedeno. Another 7 players are between 29 and 25 WAA, but no electees.
From 1971-1995 - we have elected all 21 players over 33.5 WAA except Kenny Lofton and Sammy Sosa. Another 16 players are between 33.5 WAA and 25 WAA, including electee Will Clark (29.3).
From 1996-2020 - we have elected Vladimir Guerrero. Andruw Jones and Todd Helton are above 33 WAA, while Lance Berkman and Bobby Abreu are below that but above 30 WAA.

Again, we have a few to catch up on, but no huge outliers. Sanity check done.
   308. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 03, 2019 at 05:09 PM (#5905366)
Kiko - could you compare Rizzuto and Henrich?

Also, could you comment on Toby Harrah's fielding? As a very young person, I always had the idea that he was not a very good fielder. I think this came from early Bill James articles on Range Factor, and the fact that he was moved off SS at age 27. Guys that could really field didn't play all over the diamond back then, they locked them into a slot.


Always glad to talk about my numbers. I'll start with Harrah. On the player pages on my website, if you click the headings of the third table, you get breakdowns of Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding. Here's Toby Harrah's fielding page.

Top-line. I have Toby Harrah as, essentially, an average fielder throughout his career. My units are wins and losses, so these are win percentages, which, of course, center on 0.500. I have Harrah's overall career fielding win percentage at .503. At SS, I have him at .508; at 3B, .501; at 2B, .487. If the latter seems odd, remember, he only played meaningful games at 2B in his last two seasons, at ages 36 and 37.

If you click "Shortstop" in the above link, it takes you here, which breaks down Harrah's fielding at shortstop. Infielders get totals in five components: 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9. Component 5 is hits vs. outs on balls-in-play; 6 is singles v. doubles v. triples on hits-in-play (which is much more significant for outfielders than infielders); 7 is double plays (on ground outs in DP situations); 8 is baserunner outs (throwing out a guy at home, the ability to double runners off on line drives, that sort of thing); 9 is baserunner advancements (8 and 9 are more important to outfielders than infielders - it's pretty rare to go 1st-to-3rd on a single to the SS - but not necessarily trivial).

For his career, Harrah was slightly below average at Component 5 (.495), very bad at component 6 (although, as I said, that doesn't matter a great deal to infielders), and very good at components 7, 8, and 9 (win percentages of .544, .595, .532, respectively). Looking at Harrah's raw numbers, the DP numbers don't jump out at me (per BB-Ref, he was 4th in the AL in DP's at SS in 1974, his only top-10 finish, but he led the AL in defensive games at SS that year, so that doesn't really scream "great on the double play"). Digging out my copy of Bill James' Win Shares, he reports actual vs. expected DP's by team by season and he shows the Senators/Rangers from 1971-74 (Harrah's good DP years at SS) at +6.6, -14.2, -16.9, and +8.0. So he's not really seeing what I'm seeing there. Couldn't really tell you why.

The Rangers moved Harrah from SS to 3B in 1977. In 1976, I do have Harrah dipping below .500 for the first time, and Harrah led all AL shortstops in errors (for the 2nd time). The '76 Rangers had Roy Howell at 3B. They acquired Bert Campaneris in the off-season to play SS and traded Howell to the expansion Toronto Blue Jays. I don't know the order in which those decisions were made - possibly "We gotta move Harrah off SS; hey, Campaneris is available; okay, but what do we do with Roy Howell?" Or maybe it was dissatisfaction with Howell (Howell wasn't great, but the '76 Rangers had quite a few bigger problems than their somewhat below-average third baseman) and an availability of Campaneris? Not sure.

Moving to 3B, then, Harrah continued to be an average fielder, by my numbers, broken down in much the same way: below-average at the core job of converting balls-in-play to outs (component 5 - .492), well above average at the rest (preventing extra-base hits and baserunner advancements and throwing guys out - .566, .521, .566 at those three components.

I started being a baseball fan around this time - in fact, Harrah played 3B and batted 5th in the first MLB game I saw live - but I don't really remember the perceptions of the time.

Trying to read my numbers into a scouting report 40 years after the fact, it looks like Harrah probably had limited range - not BAD range, per se, but probably below average - but a strong arm and probably good baseball instincts.

I'll try to answer your other question later tonight.
   309. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 03, 2019 at 06:59 PM (#5905399)
Last little-things update for the day.

Dave Bancroft: PBP estimate of 1.6 Rbaser vs -8 BBREF Rbaser plus estimated 2 runs of DP avoidance, though that's currently based completely on comps. Net gain of 9.5 or so runs.

Bill Terry: PBP baserunning of +20 vs -4 from BBREF; +13 estimated DP runs; -0 throwing runs for limited RF play. Net gain of +37 runs.

Charlie Gehringer: +44 PBP running runs vs 11 from BBREF; estimate of +8 for GIDP avoidance. Net gain of +41 runs en toto.

Joe Sewell: -0.4 PBP running runs vs -2 from BBREF; +6 runs for DP avoidance. Net gain of about 7.5 runs.

Max Carey This is a very provisional estimate, but thought I'd sneak it in here since there's some WOW factor here. PBP running estimated with comps +102 runs vs +89 from BBREF; estimated DP avoidance from comps of +18 runs; estimate of 2 runs of throwing vs 22 runs on DRA. That means that Carey nets out at +11. I would say that Carey's baserunning has room to grow believe it or not. Remember that the league is stealing at about 55%ish through most of his career. 1925 was Carey's last great running year, and he stole 81% of his attempts. (He would have two other years with great SB% in meaningful numbers of attempts, but 1925 appears to be his last great all-around baserunning season.) In the seasons 1919 to 1924, he stole at the following percentages: 62% (18 of 29), 84% (52 of 62), 76% (37 of 51), 96%! (51 of 53), 86% (51 of 59), and 79% (49 of 62). Those steals by themselves are worth 28.5 runs versus the 10 runs his steals after 1924 were worth (in less PT, of course). Anyway, alls I'm saying is that the book is far from closed on Carey and given how far ahead of the competition he was in SB%, his comps may undersell him. The same may be true for his arm value in that he had an outstanding throwing record, and we've only got information on his baseball senescence.

Gabby Hartnett: Bad news for the Gabmeister. PBP running estimates of -23 runs vs +7 on BBREF; -21 runs estimated for DP avoidance. Net loss of -37 runs. Don't worry, he's still very much a top-tier catcher. Haven't figured his clone, Bill Dickey, yet, but Dickey's only got a couple years of incomplete PBP whereas we still don't have the whole story on Hartnett.

If you want to know about someone, let me know. Otherwise, I'll just keep spouting these things out as I go along. Unless that's really annoying, in which case, you should also so!
   310. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 03, 2019 at 09:20 PM (#5905422)
If you want to know about someone, let me know. Otherwise, I'll just keep spouting these things out as I go along. Unless that's really annoying, in which case, you should also so!


Keep 'em coming Doc, between this and the Negro League analysis, late birthday/early Christmas presents for me :)

I'll try to think of some grey area guys to review in particular, I appreciate the comments on Bancroft, Cuyler, Sisler, Lazzeri, Rizzuto, and Terry.
Off hand, I'm curious on Johnny Pesky, would help his peak case if he gains, thank you sir.
   311. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 03, 2019 at 11:19 PM (#5905430)
Kiko - could you compare Rizzuto and Henrich?


Sure. Similarities are obvious - Yankees of the 1940s who missed significant time to World War II. Both were good baserunners and fielders - Rizzuto was probably better at both, plus he played the more difficult/valuable defensive position. Henrich was the much better hitter and Henrich's better bat overwhelms Rizzuto's other small advantages - in part because Henrich was himself a pretty good baserunner and a fine fielder.

Both Henrich and Rizzuto look quite a bit better in pWins (which tie to team wins) than eWins (which are context-neutral), by similar amounts, though, so that's not all that interesting a piece of the comparison. On my player pages, if you click the heading "Value Decomposition" on either of the first two tables, you get a page that basically decomposes a players pWORL (if you click on the pWins page) or eWORL (if you click on the eWins) page - these are modeled after BB-Ref's "Player Value" tables. At the bottom of this page, then, you can create a weighted "uber-stat" and it'll show you results by season - this is helpful, for example, for figuring out how much war credit to give these guys.

Anyway, Phil Rizzuto's eWORL decomposition page is here. For his career, I have him at 2.2 baserunning wins over (non-pitcher) average and 5.8 net fielding wins. Using my default positional weights, he gets 11.5 wins for playing shortstop. Add all of that up and that's 19.5 wins above average. Then we have to add in his batting. Retrosheet shows him with a career OPS+ of 93 and -29 Rbat (if you also include his +1 Rdp, which I put under batting). I have him at -8.2 wins relative to (non-pitcher) average. So I'm lower on Rizzuto's batting. Basically, my system values power more than most other offensive systems and Rizzuto wasn't much of a power hitter (career SLG of .355). If you click on "Batting" in the link there you can dig more deeply into Rizzuto's batting page.

Anyway, add it all up, he has a career eWOPA of 11.3 - basically, his batting almost perfectly offsets his baserunning plus fielding and his eWOPA almost perfectly matches his positional adjustment (11.5 wins). Shifting to (my) replacement level adds another 20 wins, giving him 31.3 career eWORL.

Tommy Henrich's page is here. Rizzuto beats him in baserunning 2.2 to 1.5 - but 1.5 baserunning wins is still pretty good. Rizzuto beats him in fielding 5.8 - 3.2, where Rizzuto's being compared to shortstops and Henrich is being compared to corner outfielders. That difference in position is 11.5 to -4.2 for Rizzuto. All of which adds up to 19.5 for Rizzuto vs. 0.5 for Henrich. And then Henrich makes up all of that and then some in batting, where I have Henrich ahead 25.3 to -8.2 (BB-Ref has the difference - in runs, including DP's - at 216 to -29).

Basically, my system likes everything about Henrich a bit more than Baseball-Reference. I don't know that I could really say why.

The other issue with Rizzuto and Henrich in terms of putting together my ballot - why Henrich hangs around the bottom of my ballot and Rizzuto's not really in my consideration set - is WWII credit. If you go down to the last tables in the two links above, you can see an "uber-stat" by season for these guys. For Henrich, he's ending up with an uber-stat just over 100 in about 7 full and 3 partial seasons with 3 full seasons missed due to WW2. The units don't really mean anything here, but ballpark, it probably takes 115 or so to make the bottom of my ballot, so Henrich is perhaps one or two prime seasons off-ballot. In his case, World War II very clearly cut into his prime. He had two very good full seasons right before the war, came back and put up four very good seasons immediately after the war. So, it seems fairly simple, to me, to justify just taking an average of those six seasons, give or take, and give him credit for three more just like them.

Rizzuto, on the other hand, had a very good 1942 season - basically comparable in value to Henrich's prime seasons. And then, after the war, he put up pretty good seasons in 1947 and 1949 and a great season in 1950. But he also put up a clunker in 1946 and another one in 1948. Now here, if we assume that Rizzuto's 1943-45 were comparable to his 1942 - and if we write off his 1946 as also a casualty of the war and maybe give him a fourth season at or near that level, now we have a Hall-of-Merit candidate - probably still just off ballot for me, but at least he's in the consideration set. I just think that's too generous.

Henrich was clearly a player who you could count on to hit .280/.380/.490 with solid baserunning and above-average defense in the corner outfield. Saying he deserves credit for three more seasons of exactly that seems very straightforward and uncontroversial to me. Rizzuto was a guy who could hit .300 for you or he could hit .250 for you - and even his fielding fluctuated more than you might like (his 1946 was bad because he put up a 74 OPS+; in my system, his 1948 was something of a clunker because his fielding dropped to average on top of the OPS+ of 79 per BB-Ref).
   312. Howie Menckel Posted: December 03, 2019 at 11:40 PM (#5905431)
Rizzuto came back home post-WW II poor - and flirting with an offer from the Mexican League in May 1946. lawyers followed, and he never jumped. but it was a weird year. I do think 1942 is a better measuring stick than 1946 for that reason.
   313. bachslunch Posted: December 04, 2019 at 07:20 AM (#5905444)
@303: Thanks, Carl. Appreciate the feedback.
   314. DL from MN Posted: December 04, 2019 at 09:36 AM (#5905465)
Rizzuto was still dealing with malaria in 1946. I don't give extra credit for it but I don't weight it heavily for his 3 seasons of war credit. I rate those as 1/3 of his surrounding 9 seasons.
   315. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 04, 2019 at 09:02 PM (#5905752)
Here's some more info on baserunning, DP avoidance, and throwing.

Johnny Pesky: 8 runs for 1942-1947, where BBREF gives him -1 over that span. DP avoidance for 1942-1947 appears to be roughly 4 runs, so an estimated net gain of +11.

Can't really do Sisler so much because what we have of his running is all post-injury and late-career. Given how much his game changed after the beanball, I'm going to hold off on estimating him.

Indian Bob Johnson: Estimated baserunning of +4 runs versus -3 for BBREF; estimated DP avoidance of -2 runs; estimated throwing +22 runs versus +40 for DRA. Net of about 5 runs sans DRA, -13 with DRA.

Pepper Martin: Just for giggles...+26 running estimated vs BBREF estimate of +5; +5 on DP avoidance; +5 on throwing vs +4 for DRA's throwing. Net of 26 runs w/out DRA, 27 with DRA.

More giggles. Red Rolfe, who was a great baserunner like Martin. Estimating +20 running vs +5 for BBREF. Now get ready for this one: +36 on GIDP avoidance. I'm pretty sure that I've got my numbers correct, and he did that in only 5,406 PA. The typical MLBer would have grounded into about 145 deuces in Rolfe's 1102 DPopps. He banged into just 48. Anyway, all told it's +51 for Red. Not that it matters.

Earl Averill: His entire career is now covered by PBP. Averill was an extreme player in the little stuff. He calculates out to +13 runs on the bases versus -3 for BBREF. Then he's an astounding +52 on DP avoidance. Again, we have a lefty hitter, and I'm guessing he's probably an extreme flyball hitter as well. That's +52 in a little over 7,200 PA, which is astounding. Right now we have him at 32 GIDP in 760 DPopps, or under 5%. The league is at 13%. His other extreme, however, is throwing. While DRA shows up at -11, PBP suggests he's a -35ish thrower. Ouch. So a lot of those gains on offense are given back and he nets out at +43...which ain't bad.

Stan Hack: PBP has him at -0.4 running runs and BBREF has him at -9 running runs. BTW: Hack was a weird baserunner. He just at it vs the league in SBruns. His 165/154 was just a 52% success rate where the league was at about 60% on average during his career. So he's losing 13 runs to the league there. But he picks up 1.5 runs on avoiding pickoffs, 3 runs on avoiding outs on base, adds a run on bases taken sans batted balls, and then gains another 8 runs on extra bases taken on batted balls. So either he's a preternaturally terrible SB guy, or he was involved in a lot of busted hit and runs, and whoever the #2 hitter was should have been fired. Anyway, it's still +9 against BBREF, and Hack looks like he's about +16 in DP avoidance for a grand total of +25.

Rick Ferrell: Bad news for Ferrell fans. I'm pegging him at -3 for running against BBREF's -2 for running. Not bad for a catcher! But he's -21 in DP avoidance. Oops. So that's -22 total.

More sometime this weekend.
   316. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 04, 2019 at 11:33 PM (#5905790)
1. Jeter - my system agrees he was a historically terrible defender, but my system, in general, has less extreme fielding numbers (a theme that will repeat itself regularly in the comments here)
2. Tommy John - if you didn't know that my system loves Tommy John, then you probably haven't been paying attention to my comments and ballots over the past few years
3. Andruw Jones - perhaps a bit of a surprise given my system's general fielding numbers. My system likes his offense more than some others (my system likes home runs) and I tend to prefer peaks and primes over careers (despite Tommy John's presence at #2 - I'm actually very open-minded about HOW a player puts together a Hall-of-Fame/Merit case). Anyway, running my latest numbers with the weights I like right now, Jones ends up extremely high.
4. Jeff Kent - I like power-hitting middle infielders. My system thinks Kent's defense, while not "good" wasn't particularly "bad" either - he was just a bit below average
5. Vern Stephens - power-hitting middle infielder - check! good defense - check (the Red Sox moved Pesky to 3B for him)! his placement does depend on how much you downgrade his 1943-45 for the level of competition
6. Luis Tiant - my system kind of puts him in a clump with several other pitchers; I'm pushing him up a bit in a nod to other voters/systems
7. Wally Schang - I'm missing the first 6 years of his career and about 300 games thereafter. What I have looks good; given Jorge Posada's documented defensive deficiencies, I think Schang is the best eligible catcher not in the Hall of Merit.
8. Andy Pettitte - kind of a poor man's Tommy John
9. Sammy Sosa - I'm pushing him up a bit judgmentally; again, my system finds a few outfielders who are fairly similar in value; Sosa gets a bit of a bump here in a nod to consensus.
10. Lance Berkman - good hitter, great postseason performer; benefits from my preference for peak/prime
11. Jorge Posada - I knocked him down a few notches because I'm warming to the idea that he was a truly wretched defensive catcher in ways that are not included in my system but which are, in fact, measurable (e.g., pitch framing).
12. Urban Shocker - I'm missing some of the beginning of his career, but my system really likes what it's seen so far
13. Tommy Henrich - I'm giving him fairly generous World War II credit to get him up here - this is actually a theme for my last four ballot slots; they're all guys about whom I have more uncertainty than the guys ahead of them.
14. Johnny Evers - He pre-dates my system. But I'm fairly sure that once I have Player won-lost records back to the first decade of the 20th century, at least one of Tinker, Evers, and/or Chance are going to leap out as clear HOMers. My best guess, as of right now, is that Evers has the best case of the three.
15. Ben Taylor - I have to defer to others and my interpretation of others' comments is that he's borderline at best.

Off-ballot (for now): I'm going to clump some of these, because in some cases, there are groups of players who my system sees as extremely similar, so much so that I tend to feel like I need to either vote for all of them or none of them (within a particular clump - not literally everybody below):

16-18. Orel Hershiser, Dwight Gooden, Johan Santana - all three have peaks/primes that easily meet HOF/HOM standards; all three are a bit weak on career numbers. Santana has the best peak and the shortest career.

19-21. Toby Harrah, Bert Campaneris, Dave Concepcion - the only three shortstops of the 1970s who could hit worth a damn. All three would be in my personal Hall of Fame. I think I could make a case to order the three of them in any of the six possible ways you can order three names.

22. Jason Giambi - has the sort of peak that I like
23. Darryl Strawberry - ditto; could probably clump these two. A third guy who recently started popping up in my rankings that's similar is Jack Clark. George Foster also makes an appearance in my ballot link earlier from this same general class (peak/prime-heavy hitters)

24-25. Todd Helton, Gil Hodges - we've discussed positional averages before, and I have modified my system so you can pick your own. That said, I still like one-year positional averages when I evaluate players. Doing so, Hodges benefits from the fact that he was arguably the best first baseman of the 1950s. Helton suffers from playing in an era when there were a ton of good-hitting first basemen - McGriff, Delgado, Olerud, Palmeiro, et al. I think my system is also dinging Helton more for Coors Field than some other systems, so I've actually slid him up here (he's more like in the 50-75 range in the link above) to account for that. I don't hate him as a candidate, but I don't think he's likely to make my ballot.

Required / notable disclosures:

Bobby Abreu - I have him around #35 or so; not enough peak for my tastes
Buddy Bell - probably in my top 200; my fielding numbers are less extreme in general and, while I think he was very good, I think my evaluation of his defense is a bit less than other systems. I'm also not a huge fan of his offense - not enough power; and I think BB-Ref's positional adjustment for 3B during his career might be a little wonky.
Kenny Lofton - around #75 or so. Basically, it's the same arguments as Buddy Bell, but perhaps less extreme: his defense was good, but probably not great; offense was fine, but not what I would see as HOF/HOM-worthy; he was an elite baserunner, which is a big advantage relative to Bell
Thurman Munson - I don't know exactly how to evaluate catchers. He's around #100 on my ballot, probably, if I went that deep, but if you wanted to convince me that his defense was elite, you could probably convince me and maybe I'd even be willing to push him as high as top-30 or so. I'm inclined to NOT give "death" credit; essentially, that's just an extreme career-ending injury. If he suddenly becomes our top back-logger, I'm not going to argue AGAINST his induction and if he gets elected to the real Hall of Fame next week, I'll be happy for his family and fans. But I'm pretty sure he's not going to be making my ballot.

I think that's everybody folks might care about.


Others who are high in W-L records/a peakier version I use, I would expect to see on your short list/how do these guys fare?
If you have general comments on the guys mentioned, would be greatly appreciated from my end:
Kiki Cuyler
Dale Murphy
Tony Perez
Fred McGriff
Ron Cey
Bob Johnson
Bobby Abreu
Amos Otis
Roy Oswalt

It could be that not all of the games are available by Retrosheet making the candidacies look a bit inflated, but the next grouping you have is a glut of 1920s/30s with limited support:
Schoolboy Rowe
Hack Wilson
Waite Hoyt
Burleigh Grimes
Do you support any of these guys for your personal hall of merit/should we be skeptical of missing data?
I'm a big fan of trying to reimagine my personal hall each year

Who do you have from those elected by the HOM that you feel are mistakes, looking at your uber-stat?
Richie Ashburn, Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Edd Roush*, Eppa Rixey*, Tony Gwynn!, Red Faber*, Don Drysdale!, Dave Stieb, Keith Hernandez, Nellie Fox, Bill Freehan, Rick Reuschel, Stan Hack, Ralph Kiner?

Thanks for your insights :)
   317. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 05, 2019 at 01:01 AM (#5905804)
Others who are high in W-L records/a peakier version I use, I would expect to see on your short list/how do these guys fare?
If you have general comments on the guys mentioned, would be greatly appreciated from my end:
Kiki Cuyler
Dale Murphy
Tony Perez
Fred McGriff
Ron Cey
Bob Johnson
Bobby Abreu
Amos Otis
Roy Oswalt


Everybody named here shows up in the top 34 in the link on the previous page (repeated here for convenience). I would presume that all of these guys would be in my personal Hall of Fame/Merit, although since my system doesn't go back before 1919 and excludes Negro Leaguers, it's hard to know exactly how many pHOF slots I have to fill from guys for whom I have full career numbers.

Schoolboy Rowe
Hack Wilson
Waite Hoyt
Burleigh Grimes
Do you support any of these guys for your personal hall of merit/should we be skeptical of missing data?


For Schoolboy Rowe, Retrosheet's next update should cover his entire career - although I believe the Tigers have the most deduced games of any team in the 1930s. So, yeah, perhaps a grain of two of salt are warranted, but he's probably in my top 50 (he's #42 in the link above). Of relevance here, given their relative HOM voting histories, Rowe rates as notably better than long-time teammate Tommy Bridges in my system - Bridges is just outside my top 100 - although since Bridges' career started three years earlier than Rowe's, I'm missing more games of his career (53 games total), so that could change over time.

Hack Wilson is #63, but I'd be cautious at least until Retrosheet releases deduced games for all of 1930 - that season's very much the key to Hack Wilson's HOM case (I'm currently missing 22 games in that season; 164 games total for his career).
Waite Hoyt is #28. I'm missing 80 games (which I'm extrapolating into his rating here).
Burleigh Grimes is #40 with my missing 139 games including two full seasons (that I'm not extrapolating for the #40). I should probably take a look at how much manual credit to give him for his pre-1919 work. He could certainly slide up into my consideration set.

Who do you have from those elected by the HOM that you feel are mistakes, looking at your uber-stat?
Richie Ashburn, Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Edd Roush*, Eppa Rixey*, Tony Gwynn!, Red Faber*, Don Drysdale!, Dave Stieb, Keith Hernandez, Nellie Fox, Bill Freehan, Rick Reuschel, Stan Hack, Ralph Kiner?


I'm going to pass on all of the guys with asterisks, all of whom played in MLB prior to 1919.

I go back and forth sometimes, but I think my current thinking would be to have Mariano Rivera as the only relief pitcher in my personal Hall. Goose Gossage tends to show up as the second-best relief pitcher in my system (not counting Dennis Eckersley, who's in my personal Hall) but I'd probably leave him out.

I think the three un-asterisked starting pitchers that you list would be in my personal Hall. If I take the weights from my previous link and extend it to include everybody, Rick Reuschel pops up at #200, Dave Stieb is #203, and Don Drysdale is #205. I think those are high enough rankings to be in my personal Hall. Incidentally, Sandy Koufax is #214 (the short career really hurts - take a look at his career WAR, for example).

Stan Hack shows up at #239 right next to Joe Mauer, Bill Terry, and Dizzy Dean. That might be too low to make my personal Hall (although keep in mind, this ranking includes guys not yet eligible (well, the presence of Joe Mauer makes that obvious) - A-Rod is #13, Pujols is #23, Mike Trout is already up to 102 - right behind two other guys not yet eligible: C.C. Sabathia at #99 and Adrian Beltre at #101). Anyway, all of that said, I think Hack is in my personal Hall and if he's out, he's not far enough out to really be a "mistake".

Bill Freehan is #282, which is probably out. I have him behind (at least) four eligible non-HOM catchers: Jorge Posada, Ernie Lombardi, Gene Tenace, and Darrell Porter. That said, Freehan had a much stronger defensive reputation than all three of those guys and I'm probably under-valuing catcher defense (and hence, implicitly over-valuing poor defensive catchers). I might be inclined to make an adjustment for that if I were filling my personal Hall. So, like Hack, even if Freehan's not in my personal Hall, I hesitate to label him a "mistake".

Nellie Fox is #284, which could indicate a mistake, because I have more confidence in my numbers for non-catchers. Although in the past I've given a bit of a boost to second basemen, who tend to have shorter-than-average careers. If I give a 5% boost to second basemen, Fox slides up to #260, which is probably right around the borderline where it depends on how I populate my personal Hall. Probably less likely to be in my personal Hall than Hack and Freehan, but I'd still be loathe to call him a "mistake".

Which I believe leaves four guys who I think I would be willing to call "mistakes" relative to my system: Ralph Kiner (#294) - his career's too short and he doesn't add enough value outside of the home runs (which are obviously very valuable, of course); Keith Hernandez (#305) - first base defense just isn't that important, and he doesn't stand out quite so much in my numbers as he does in some other metrics, even setting aside the difference in scale; Tony Gwynn (#356) - not enough power for a corner outfielder whose baserunning and fielding got notably worse as he aged. And Richie Ashburn doesn't even show up among my top 500. I think I've talked about him before. My system just doesn't like him - no power, my system really dislikes his fielding, especially the secondary aspects of it (his teams allowed large numbers of extra-base hits). Scrolling through the second link in this reply, unless there's another non-relief pitcher HOMer whose case is based entirely on MLB performance since 1919 outside my top 500 besides Ashburn, I think that's it as far as clear "mistakes" based on my system.
   318. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 05, 2019 at 10:48 AM (#5905865)
Thanks Kiko, if possible, please comment on Kiki Cuyler since he's not slotted in your rankings but does well in the raw W-L records, and forgot, also Dave Bancroft once you roll in his pre-1919 years.

Thank you!
   319. Esteban Rivera Posted: December 05, 2019 at 12:13 PM (#5905914)
There’s a lot of information to take in (thanks Doc and Kiko). Some information I wanted to ask about with regards to the NgL MLEs:

The WAR values on Baseball Reference are regressed for fielding and base running pre-1953. Are the MLEs similarly regressed in this regard?

The fielding part I believe uses DRA as part of its calculation (if I read the explanation correctly), since that is what is used at the Negro Leagues database. The data is then converted to an rfield value, but if I’m comparing the MLE WAR numbers to the major leaguers, would it make more sense to use the DRA fielding values for the major leaguers when doing the comparison or should it be the numbers as done by Baseball Reference with DRS?

I’ll chime back in once I’ve had a chance to read through the more recent posts.
   320. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 05, 2019 at 05:50 PM (#5906084)
Esteban,

The MLE values for Baserunning aren’t regressed because there aren’t any Baserunning values to regress. With no PBP and without accurate counts if SB and CS, there’s not a lot to regress with. So instead, I use SB/ estimated opportunity, height, and weight, and I find MLB comps from 1948 to now and look at the twelve players most similar to the guy in question. In reality, these are very much estimates.

For fielding it’s a bit different. In fielding there’s more information but it’s spread out across a career. So I take a player’s career average and turn that into the rfield value as you say. There’s no regression instead we’re relying on less complex types of central tendency to do the work for us.

I hope that helps. It may be helpful to know that fielding data is running behind batting data at this point. There’s many seasons where we have both and many seasons where we only have batting.
   321. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 05, 2019 at 11:05 PM (#5906138)
Thanks Kiko, if possible, please comment on Kiki Cuyler since he's not slotted in your rankings but does well in the raw W-L records, and forgot, also Dave Bancroft once you roll in his pre-1919 years.

Thank you!


Sure, in my latest weighting Cuyler comes in #30. He's between Dave Concepcion and Bobby Abreu, who I did mention. Cuyler is definitely a guy who benefits from play-by-play data as I use it or as Dr. C. has been doing. Great baserunner - across all aspects, including what I measure as sort of the baserunning-adjacent components of batting - avoiding double plays, beating out infield hits, legging out extra-base hits. He's also a very good fielder - again, across the board as I measure it - solidly above average at converting balls-in-play into outs, very good at preventing extra-base hits, very good in the "arm" components of fielding (baserunner outs, baserunner advancements).

His peak still pre-dates the seasons for which Retrosheet has full play-by-play, but Retrosheet has at least some data for every season of his career. Overall, it looks like I'm missing 153 games of his career, which works out to about 8% - although they're skewed toward his more valuable seasons, so 8% probably under-states the relative impact of his missing games. For seasons where I'm missing some games, I extrapolate based on the games I do have - so, for example, if a guy played 150 games and I have play-by-play for 75 of them, then I take his records in those 75 games and multiply them all by two. This is far from ideal, of course, but it's a problem that is more or less self-correcting as we get more data.

As of now, #30 is far enough off-ballot that it's hard for me to see how I could justify putting him on my ballot, although different folks value different things. I think looking at his numbers, his peak is a little low for my taste and he doesn't really have the career bulk to make up for it. But, again, that may change as we get more data - and others may be less interested in peak vis-a-vis career.

Cuyler has three seasons with significant missed time - 1927 (age 28, 85 games), 1932 (age 32, 110 games), and 1933 - (age 33, 70 games). It looks like 1932 and 1933 were injuries (broken bones in both cases) which I think is one of those things that you can't really go and adjust for every injury a guy suffered. The 1927 missed time, though, is kind of weird, and I think you might be able to defend giving him some sort of credit. According to Cuyler's SABR Biography, Cuyler basically missed the last two months of the season because his manager, Donie Bush, didn't like him. I don't know - maybe you could use that as an excuse to slide him up the ratings a bit.

Personally, I think I'm going to wait until we get more play-by-play data. It's possible that'll be enough to slide him up onto my ballot in a few years. Although I suspect he's going to just kind of hang around in that #20-#40 no-man's land of always being in consideration but never quite good enough to make my ballot. But we'll see - that's the great benefit of permanent eligibility.
   322. Esteban Rivera Posted: December 07, 2019 at 10:57 AM (#5906508)
Esteban,

The MLE values for Baserunning aren’t regressed because there aren’t any Baserunning values to regress. With no PBP and without accurate counts if SB and CS, there’s not a lot to regress with. So instead, I use SB/ estimated opportunity, height, and weight, and I find MLB comps from 1948 to now and look at the twelve players most similar to the guy in question. In reality, these are very much estimates.

For fielding it’s a bit different. In fielding there’s more information but it’s spread out across a career. So I take a player’s career average and turn that into the rfield value as you say. There’s no regression instead we’re relying on less complex types of central tendency to do the work for us.

I hope that helps. It may be helpful to know that fielding data is running behind batting data at this point. There’s many seasons where we have both and many seasons where we only have batting.


Thnaks for the answers Doc, I'm clear on this now. If you're still doing some of the little things spotchecks you've been posting and are taking suggestions, here's some potential players to look at:

Dolph Camilli
Lonny Frey
Max Bishop
Eddie Stanky
Buddy Myer
Bob Elliott
Harlond Clift
Dick Bartell
Marty Marion
Ken Williams
Augie Galan
Heinie Manush
Dom DiMaggio
Wally Berger
Babe Herman
Bill Nicholson
Ross Youngs

I didn't include Ray Schalk since many of his seasons are not yet in the PBP data, but he's someone who I think may actually be a a stealth candidate once all of this value is accounted for.
   323. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 07, 2019 at 04:26 PM (#5906618)
Ken Williams' only seasons of PBP are his age 36 and beyond, so I'm a little hesitant to go there yet. Youngs is also very incomplete, so I'm not going to touch it yet. And I'm too lazy to do Herman today. I'll get to him tomorrow. But I've got the rest of these guys. I'm going to make a chart this time.

          EST  BBREF EST  EST  EST  EST  DRA  NET    NET
NAME      BSR  BSR   DPR  LFR  CFR  RFR  OFR  NODRA  DRA
=========================================================
BARTELL     7   -5    -2                      +14   
BERGER      6   -1     9   -0    2    1   -9  +16    +28
BISHOP     -8   -4     3                      - 1
CAMILLI     5   -2    17                      +24 
CLIFT      17    0    -5   +0              0  +12    +12      
DIMAGGIO   21    0    -0   +0   27   +0   20  +21    +28  
ELLIOTT     2   -5   -10   -0   -3   -7   -0  - 3    -13
FREY       19   -2    18   +0   +0   -0   +0  +39    +39
GALAN      19   -1    32    5    6   +0   -4  +53    +64 
MANUSH     28    6    12  -12   -2   -2  -34  +46    +64 
MARION      4   -1     5                      +10    
MYER        7   -5     8                      +20
NICHOLSON   0   -1    18    1    0  -13  -10  +19    +17
STANKY      2   -1     4                      + 7
---------------------------------------------------------
KELLER     -7    2    26   -7         1  -17  +15    +26   
SLAUGHTER  16   -3    15   -2   -1   -6   -2  +34    +27

Note: Only includes value accrued through 1948 (running/dp) or 1952 (OF throwing).

I'll try to get to Herman tomorrow, but I must clean the litter boxes right now or no one in our house will be happy.
   324. DL from MN Posted: December 07, 2019 at 07:43 PM (#5906656)
Interesting how many are moving up. What are the chances that MLB average baserunning also moves up and this extra value gets swallowed up?
   325. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 07, 2019 at 09:23 PM (#5906691)
DL, I had the same question about my own work. I think there are eight possible things here. Some, all, or none may be operative.

Before I articulate those things, anyone interested in knowing more about the running, DP, and arm value of the players before 1948, PLEASE send BBREF a note asking them to update WAR as far back as they can. There’s a ton more info now than before, and speculation like mine is just until the acknowledged leader in the field gets this data into their calculations. Please, Sean Forman, if you are reading, the HOM needs you!!! :)

1) It’s possible that the worst players in the league may soak up disproportionate amounts of negative value in running—prior to integration this may have been more true because the talent pool was smaller and the difference in skill between the best and worst players may have been greeater.
2) We have been looking primarily at good to great players, and those guys tend to be good at many things
3) I have cherry picked a lot of guys due to my personal expectation that they would have additional value to contribute.
4) But I’ve included very few catchers so far, and they are usually pikers who lose value on running and on DPs
5) We are very used to seeing these players with less variable numbers for running due to BBREF’s regression, and that may shape part of our reactions
6) IMPORTANT: Virtually every LH batter will gain value for DP avoidance, and those with even a modicum of speed, fly ball swings, and high walks totals will look good by DP avoidance
7) I might be doing my estimates wrong—which is why I have asked Kiko to corroborate previous posts (and I would be glad for corroboration here as well)
8) actually I had two more, BTF ate my post and I had to start over. I’m sure they were utterly brilliant but in midlife I’ve developed a case of CRAFT*, and things disappear like sand through the hourglass.
*Can’t Remember a F*****g Thing: ask your doctor about this horrific malady if you develop symptoms such as being unable to remember what the initials GVH stand for, misplacing the last name of a ball player named Kiki, or being unable to name the thirty major league teams at will.
   326. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 08, 2019 at 11:02 AM (#5906786)
Prelim:
1. Andruw Jones
2. Derek Jeter
3. Wally Schang
4. Luis Tiant
5. Urban Shocker
6. Todd Helton
7. Johan Santana
8. Bobby Veach
9. Joe Tinker
10. Andy Pettitte
11. Lance Berkman
12. Bert Campaneris
13. Don Newcombe
14. Harry Hooper/open
15. **Marvin Williams/Webster McDonald** - awaiting latest from Doc.

20 Under consideration:
Bobby Abreu, Kevin Appier, Dave Bancroft, Tommy Bond, Bobby Bonds, Ron Cey, Kiki Cuyler, Dizzy Dean, Art Fletcher, Jason Giambi, Brian Giles, Tommy John, Bob Johnson, Jeff Kent, Tommy Leach, Kenny Lofton, Dolf Luque, Thurman Munson, Vern Stephens, Vic Willis.

Short:
Sammy Sosa - pathetic clutch scores remove him from ballot consideration, he was a GIDP and whiff machine in important situations
Jorge Posada - catcher framing, clutch, post-season are all bad or terrible, bringing down a rather impressive raw WAR total.
Ben Taylor - short by latest MLEs, Eric and Miller elected to take Marvin Williams, Webster McDonald, Roosevelt Davis, and Hurley McNair ahead of Taylor.
   327. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 08, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5906831)
1) I found a little error in my throwing calculations that affected yesterday's reported PBP updates.
2) I've gathered all the stray players I mentioned earlier upthread.
3) I've estimated Williams after all. Too much time at the computer yesterday made me forget how to do that. I remembered.
4) Babe Herman is now done.

That's what's in this chart.



          EST  BBREF EST  EST  EST  EST  DRA  NET    NET
NAME      BSR  BSR   DPR  LFR  CFR  RFR  OFR  NODRA  DRA
=========================================================
BANCROFT    2   -8     2                      +12
BARTELL     7   -5    -2                      +14   
BERGER      6   -1     9   -0    2    1   -9  +16    +28
BISHOP     -8   -4     3                      - 1
CAMILLI     5   -2    17                      +24 
CLIFT      17    0    -5   +0              0  +12    +12      
COMBS      20   -1    11   -0  -10   -1  -35  +30    +56 
CUYLER     77   21     8   +0   -2   19    9  +64    +72
DIMAGGIO   21    0    -0   +0   27   +0   20  +21    +28  
ELLIOTT     2   -5   -10   -0   -3   -7   -0  - 3    -13
R FERRELL  -3   -2   -21                      -22
FREY       19   -2    18   +0   +0   -0   +0  +39    +39
GALAN      19   -1    32    5    6   +0   -4  +53    +64 
BA HERMAN -12   -3     1  - 2        -0  -21  - 8    +11  
B JOHSON    4   -3    -2   19    3   -0   40  + 5    -13
KLEIN      11   -3    21  - 2   +0   16   23  +35    +26 
LAZZERI   -18    5    -3                      -26  
LOMBARDI  -14    5   -44                      -63 
MANUSH     28    6    12  -11   -1   -3  -34  +46    +65 
MARANVILLE 12    5   -10                      - 3
MARION      4   -1     5                      +10    
MARTIN     26    5     5    1    3    2    4  +26    +28 
MYER        7   -5     8                      +20
NICHOLSON   0   -1    18    1    0  -13  -10  +19    +17
PESKY      18    9    15                      +24
S RICE     39   12    24   -1    9    7   12  +51    +54 
RIZZUTO    12    6     2                      + 7
ROLFE      20    5    36                      +61 
SCHANG    -18    4    -1                      -23 
STANKY      2   -1     4                      + 7
STEPHENS    5    1     1    1             +0  + 5    + 6
TRAYNOR    42   -2     1                      +45 
K WILLIAMS  6   -6     8  -24   -4   -0   16  +20    -24  
---------------------------------------------------------
AVERILL    13   -3    52    2  -37   -0  -11  +68    +44
CAREY     102   89    18    0   +0    2   22  +31    +11 
COCHRANE   17    2    15                      +34
FRISCH     47   31    11                      +27 
GEHRINGER  44   11     8                      +41
HARTNETT  -23    7   -21                      -51  
BI HERMAN   7   -4    -9                      + 2
KELLER     -7    2    26   -4         1  -17  +15    +31   
OTT        25   -4    50    1   +0   13   11  +79    +81 
ROUSH      -0   -9     7   -0   +0    0    2  +16    +14  
J SEWELL   -0   -2     6                      + 8
A SIMMONS  21    2    -8   19    9   -0  -11  +11    +50
SLAUGHTER  16   -3    15    2   -1    2   -2  +34    +35
TERRY      20   -4    13                      +29
VAUGHAN    15   -9    36   -0             +0  +57    +57
WANER      23   -8     9    1   -0   -6   -7  +40    +42

Note: Only includes value accrued through 1948 (running/dp) or 1952 (OF throwing).


I'll update the chart as I do more of these.

   328. bachslunch Posted: December 09, 2019 at 12:00 PM (#5907062)
When does voting start?
   329. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 09, 2019 at 06:47 PM (#5907289)
re: 328

1926 NNL just posted on the NLDB. I'm going to try to pump out the most important guys as quickly as I'm able, but it's not the flip of a switch, and it may take a couple-few days. Do with this information as the group wills.
   330. cookiedabookie Posted: December 09, 2019 at 07:31 PM (#5907298)
So with those edited numbers, Kiki Cuyler and Sam Rice look a lot more appealing for the HoM...that would move them closer to my top 25
   331. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 09, 2019 at 07:58 PM (#5907306)
OK, uh, actually, I've got the important remaining guys all figured out. Will post below. Don't worry about the election, set it up for whenever!
   332. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 09, 2019 at 08:08 PM (#5907308)
Hey guys, sorry I am a little late this year. Catching up on things. Have you all decided when the election will be yet?
   333. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 09, 2019 at 08:13 PM (#5907310)
I actually ended up with another mysteryish player, William Bell. Though he's not the mystery player I've been referring to. I don't think Bell's ballot worthy, but he'll be useful as a reference point since he's in the HOVG zone.

WILLIAM BELL: SP
YEAR AGE  LG   G   IP    R   RA9  RAA  pWAA  pWAR    PA   Bat  bWAR    WAR
===========================================================================
1923  25  NL  33  150   87  5.25  - 7  -0.6   0.9    50  -1.4   0.2    1.1
1924  26  NL  33  170   85  4.53    0   0.0   1.8    57  -1.6   0.2    2.0
1925  27  NL  34  180   74  3.71   27   2.7   4.5    60  -1.7   0.3    4.8
1926  28  NL  34  200   69  3.11   32   3.5   5.4    67  -1.9   0.3    5.7
1927  29  NL  38  230   87  3.27   33   3.6   5.9    77  -2.2   0.4    6.2
1928  30  NL  38  240  103  3.86   22   2.3   4.8    80  -2.2   0.4    5.2
1929  31  NL  37  230  104  4.05   34   3.2   5.6    77  -2.2   0.4    6.0
1930  32  NL  36  200   83  3.72   44   4.0   6.1    67  -1.9   0.3    6.4
1931  33  NL  29  180   90  4.52  - 1  -0.1   1.8    60  -1.7   0.3    2.1
1932  34  NL  38  240  123  4.61  - 1  -0.1   2.4    80  -2.2   0.4    2.9
1933  35  NL  36  240  112  4.22  - 7  -0.7   1.7    80  -2.2   0.4    2.1
1934  36  NL  39  230  105  4.11   15   1.5   3.9    77  -2.2   0.4    4.3
1935  37  NL  34  150  103  6.21  -25  -2.4  -0.8    50  -1.4   0.2   -0.6
1936  38  NL  35  200   89  3.99   16   1.7   3.7    67  -1.9   0.4    4.1
1937  39  NL  36  170   75  3.97   10   1.1   2.8    57  -1.6   0.3    3.1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
             530 3010 1386  4.10  194  19.6  50.4  1006 -28.2   4.9   55.3



   334. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 09, 2019 at 09:02 PM (#5907315)
Next is Dandy Andy Cooper. He made a ballot or two a few years back, so it seemed worth it to give him a rundown for everyone. However, as you'll see he's not a great candidate.

ANDY COOPER: SP
YEAR AGE  LG   G   IP    R   RA9  RAA  pWAA  pWAR    PA   Bat  bWAR    WAR
===========================================================================
1920  24  NL  32  140   60  3.84    2   0.2   1.6    47  -6.1  -0.4    1.1
1921  25  NL  36  220  114  4.68  - 2  -0.2   2.1    73  -9.5  -0.4    1.6
1922  26  NL  39  250   98  3.52   41   4.2   6.7    83 -10.8  -0.3    6.4
1923  27  NL  36  210  123  5.28  -10  -1.0   1.3    70  -9.1  -0.4    0.9
1924  28  NL  34  200   94  4.21    7   0.8   2.8    67  -8.8  -0.5    2.4
1925  29  NL  32  210   86  3.71   32   3.2   5.3    70  -9.1  -0.3    5.1
1926  30  NL  34  200   77  3.47   24   2.5   4.5    67  -8.8  -0.4    4.2
1927  31  NL  30  180  105  5.23  -13  -1.3   0.6    60  -7.8  -0.3    0.3
1928  32  NL  23  210  104  4.44    6   0.6   2.8    70  -9.1  -0.3    2.5
1929  33  NL  34  200  110  4.97    9   0.8   3.0    67  -8.8  -0.2    2.8
1930  34  NL  29  200   83  3.72   44   4.1   6.2    67  -8.8  -0.2    6.0
1931  35  NL  29  220   79  3.22   31   3.4   5.6    73  -9.5  -0.3    5.3
1932  36  NL  35  210  142  6.10  -35  -3.3  -1.1    70  -9.1  -0.3   -1.3
1933  37  NL  34  210  113  4.82  -20  -2.2   0.0    70  -9.1  -0.4   -0.4
1934  38  NL  20  170   81  4.27    8   0.8   2.6    57  -7.4  -0.2    2.4
1935  39  NL   5   30   15  4.47    1   0.1   0.4    10  -1.3  -0.0    0.3
1936  40  NL   2   10    5  4.66    0   0.0   0.1     3  -0.4  -0.0    0.1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
             494 3070 1489  4.37  123  12.7  44.5  1024 -134.0 -4.9   39.7

   335. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 09, 2019 at 09:19 PM (#5907318)
Here's our next pitcher, Roosevelt Davis. It turns out that the last couple updates to the NLDB have been less favorable to Davis than everything that came before. He looked like a very solid candidate previously, now he's not that much different from William Bell above. I wouldn't advocate for him at this time. In addition, I suspect that Miller and I at the Hall of Miller and Eric might pull him back since we elected him when we had less but more favorable information. Although I'm not saying that for sure.

ROOSEVELT DAVIS: SP
YEAR AGE  LG   G   IP    R   RA9  RAA  pWAA  pWAR    PA   Bat  bWAR    WAR
===========================================================================
1924  19  NL  10   50   25  4.47    0   0.0   0.6    17  -2.0  -0.1    0.5
1925  20  NL  15  100   40  3.59   16   1.6   2.7    33  -3.9  -0.1    2.6
1926  21  NL  34  200  117  5.25  -16  -1.6   0.5    67  -7.9  -0.2    0.3
1927  22  NL  36  210  100  4.30    6   0.7   2.8    70  -8.3  -0.2    2.6
1928  23  NL  38  240  107  4.01   18   1.9   4.4    80  -9.5  -0.1    4.2
1929  24  NL  37  230  117  4.60   20   1.8   4.3    77  -9.1  -0.1    4.2
1930  25  NL  37  230  162  6.34  -17  -1.4   1.1    77  -9.1  -0.1    1.0
1931  26  NL  37  240  129  4.84  -10  -1.0   1.5    80  -9.5  -0.2    1.3
1932  27  NL  38  240  114  4.27    9   0.9   3.4    80  -9.5  -0.1    3.2
1933  28  NL  34  210   86  3.70    6   0.7   2.8    70  -8.3  -0.3    2.5
1934  29  NL  32  140   61  3.92   12   1.2   2.6    47  -5.6   0.0    2.6
1935  30  NL  35  220   86  3.54   29   3.0   5.2    73  -8.6  -0.2    5.0
1936  31  NL  38  230  101  3.95   19   2.0   4.4    77  -9.1   0.0    4.3
1937  32  NL  38  220  108  4.40    3   0.3   2.5    73  -8.6  -0.1    2.4
1938  33  NL  32  140   66  4.27    2   0.2   1.6    47  -5.6   0.0    1.6
1939  34  NL  36  190   89  4.23    5   0.5   2.4    63  -7.4  -0.1    2.3
1940  35  NL  34  190   84  3.99    8   0.9   2.8    63  -7.4  -0.1    2.7
1941  36  NL  35  190   65  3.06   25   2.8   4.6    63  -7.4  -0.1    4.5
1942  37  NL  28  180   52  2.59   26   3.2   4.9    60  -7.1  -0.2    4.7
1943  38  NL  31  160   51  2.88   19   2.2   3.7    53  -6.3  -0.3    3.4
1944  39  NL  22  130   58  4.03    3   0.3   1.7    43  -5.1  -0.2    1.5
1945  40  NL   2   10    5  4.27    0   0.0   0.1     3  -0.4   0.0    0.1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
             679 3950 1823  4.15  185  20.4  60.7  1316 -156.0 -2.9   57.7

   336. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 09, 2019 at 09:34 PM (#5907320)
Now Webster McDonald whose 1926 numbers weren't great either. Overall, however, he appears to be the best Negro Leagues pitcher outside the HOM. However, that doesn't mean I'd cast a vote for him. He's not an overwhelming great looking pitcher after all, but someone who would exist near the borderline. I think. In addition, we've got too many pre-war guys anyway, so without a resume that absolutely screams elect-me, I'm not really shopping in that aisle.

WEBSTER McDONALD: SP
YEAR AGE  LG   G   IP    R   RA9  RAA  pWAA  pWAR    PA   Bat  bWAR    WAR
===========================================================================
1922  22  NL  34  180   74  3.72   26   2.5   4.4    60  -6.3   0.0    4.4
1923  23  NL  36  210   82  3.51   31   3.2   5.3    70  -7.4  -0.1    5.2
1924  24  NL  34  200   66  2.96   35   3.8   5.8    67  -7.0  -0.2    5.6
1925  25  NL  32  210   83  3.55   35   3.6   5.7    70  -7.4   0.0    5.7
1926  26  NL  34  200   95  4.29    5   0.6   2.6    67  -7.0  -0.1    2.5
1927  27  NL  36  210   83  3.56   24   2.5   4.6    70  -7.4  -0.1    4.6
1928  28  NL  27  180   56  2.80   38   4.1   5.9    60  -6.3   0.0    5.9
1929  29  NL  34  200   88  3.96   31   3.0   5.1    67  -7.0   0.0    5.1
1930  30  NL  36  200  129  5.79  - 2  -0.2   2.0    67  -7.0   0.0    2.0
1931  31  NL  35  180   84  4.20    6   0.6   2.4    60  -6.3   0.0    2.4
1932  32  NL  40  270  131  4.35    7   0.8   3.6    90  -9.5   0.0    3.6
1933  33  NL  44  280  129  4.14  - 5  -0.6   2.2    93  -9.8  -0.1    2.1
1934  34  NL  36  200   97  4.37    7   0.7   2.8    67  -7.0   0.0    2.8
1935  35  NL  41  270  127  4.24   14   1.4   4.2    90  -9.5   0.0    4.2
1936  36  NL  42  270  156  5.21  -15  -1.5   1.4    90  -9.5   0.1    1.5
1937  37  NL  37  260  133  4.60  - 3  -0.3   2.4    87  -9.1   0.0    2.5
1938  38  NL  40  260  124  4.31    3   0.3   3.0    87  -9.1   0.1    3.1
1939  39  NL  30  150   77  4.62  - 3  -0.3   1.2    50  -5.3   0.0    1.2
1940  40  NL   4   10    5  4.40    0   0.0   0.1     3  -0.3   0.0    0.1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
             652 3940 1819  4.16  235  24.3  64.7  1315 -138.0 -0.4   64.3

   337. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 09, 2019 at 09:44 PM (#5907326)
Now for our final three candidates at large, the hitters. This is Hurley McNair, outfielder. He's a long-and-low kinda guy. That's probably to some degree a reflection of the MLE process since it tends to flatten things out. But that just also seems to be the Hurley McNair way. He played much of his career during a time we could use more players from, and he competes during that time with guys like Harry Hooper and Bobby Veach in the OF and with Art Fletcher and Dave Bancroft in the infield. And, of course, The Schanger at catcher. As we all know, I'm disposed toward Schang, so I'll just run the numbers at this juncture.

Year Age  Lg  Pos  G     PA  Bat  Bsr  DP  Fld  Pos  RAA   WAA  Rep  RAR   WAR  WAR162
======================================================================================
1910  21  NL  RF  110    460   23   0   0    1  - 5   19   2.1   14   33   3.7   3.9
1911  22  NL  RF  127    534   25   0   0    1  - 6   20   2.1   17   37   3.9   4.1
1912  23  NL  RF  142    600   28   0   0    1  - 7   22   2.3   19   41   4.2   4.4
1913  24  NL  CF  142    590   31   0   0    0  - 3   28   3.0   18   46   5.1   5.3
1914  25  NL  CF  144    590   28   0   0    0  - 3   24   2.8   18   43   5.0   5.2
1915  26  NL  RF  144    590   28   0   0    1  - 7   22   2.7   18   41   5.0   5.2
1916  27  NL  CF  142    580   24   0   0    0  - 3   20   2.5   18   38   4.8   5.1
1917  28  NL  RF  132    540   20   0   0    1  - 6   15   1.9   17   32   4.0   4.2
1918  29  NL  LF  116    480   13   0   0    3  - 5   11   1.3   15   26   3.2   3.3
1919  30  NL  LF  129    530   17   0   0    3  - 6   14   1.7   17   30   3.7   3.9
1920  31  NL  LF  149    630   20   0   0    3  - 7   16   1.9   20   36   4.1   4.4
1921  32  NL  LF  150    640   30   0   0    3  - 6   27   2.8   20   47   4.8   5.1
1922  33  NL  LF  132    570   35   0   0    3  - 5   33   3.1   18   50   4.8   5.1
1923  34  NL  LF  129    560   11   0   0    3  - 5    8   0.8   17   26   2.6   2.7
1924  35  NL  RF  129    550   35   0   0    1  - 5   31   3.1   17   48   4.9   5.2
1925  36  NL  RF  113    490   11   0   0    1  - 5    7   0.7   15   23   2.2   2.3
1926  37  NL  RF   97    410    6   0   0    1  - 4    3   0.3   13   16   1.7   1.8
1927  38  NL  RF   86    370    3   0   0    1  - 4    0   0.0   12   12   1.2   1.3
1928  39  NL  LF   69    300    0   0   0    2  - 3  - 1  -0.1    9    8   0.8   0.9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 2382  10014  385   2   0   31  -96  321  34.8  312  633  69.6  73.3


   338. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 09, 2019 at 10:14 PM (#5907332)
Finally, we have our mystery man. Ladies and gentlemen, Newt Allen!

NEWT ALLEN: 2B 
VERSION 1—NO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
Year Age  Lg Pos    G   PA  Bat Bsr  DP  Fld  Pos RAA   WAA  Rep  RAR   WAR  WAR162
===================================================================================
1923  22  NL  2B   51  220    2   0   0    5   2   10   1.0    7   17   1.7   1.7
1924  23  NL  2B  143  610    7   1   0   15   4   29   3.0   19   48   5.0   5.3
1925  24  NL  2B  148  640    6   1   0   15   4   29   2.8   20   49   4.7   5.0 
1926  25  NL  2B  148  630    1   1   0   15  4   25   2.6   20   44   4.6   4.9
1927  26  NL  2B  147  630   20   1   0   15   4   43   4.4   20   63   6.5   6.8
1928  27  NL  2B  145  630  - 1   1   0   15   4   22   2.2   20   42   4.2   4.5
1929  28  NL  2B  146  640   34   1   0   15   4   57   5.2   20   77   7.1   7.4
1930  29  NL  2B  146  640   38   1   0   15   4   61   5.3   20   81   7.1   7.5
1931  30  NL  2B  148  630   14   1   0   15   4   37   3.9   20   57   6.0   6.3
1932  31  NL  2B  142  610    1   1   0   14   4   23   2.4   19   42   4.4   4.6 
1933  32  NL  2B  141  590  -15   1   0   14   4    7   0.9   18   26   3.0   3.1
1934  33  NL  2B  139  600  -11   1   0   14   4   11   1.2   19   30   3.1   3.3
1935  34  NL  2B  140  600  - 7   1   0   14   4   15   1.5   19   34   3.4   3.6
1936  35  NL  2B  122  530    0   1   0   12   4   19   2.0   17   36   3.6   3.8
1937  36  NL  2B  115  490    3   1   0   12   4   22   2.3   15   37   3.9   4.1
1938  37  NL  2B   82  350  - 5   0   0    8   3    8   0.9   11   19   2.1   2.2
1939  38  NL  2B   70  300  - 7   0   0    7   2    4   0.4    9   13   1.4   1.5
1940  39  NL  2B   61  260  - 4   0   0    6   2    6   0.6    8   14   1.5   1.6
1941  40  NL  2B   44  190    0   0   0    4   2    7   0.8    6   13   1.5   1.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 2278 9790   75  12   0  231  69  437  43.4  305  742  74.9  78.7


Now you'll notice two things right away.
1) I'm running two different MLEs for him
2) that in version 1, his fielding value is crazily high.

Let's talk about number two. The MLE is using the fielding data the same way that all other MLEs do. In Allen's case, it's a little under 200 games' worth of data. In all cases, he's an amazing fielding second baseman, but it's still only 200ish games. So I created a second MLE that takes his fielding numbers down to a more historically reasonable level. Prior to WW2, the highest Rfield for a second baseman was Biddie McPhee, just a little under +160. Joe Gordon, considered to be the most acrobatic and gifted second baseman of his time rang up about +140. So the MLE below goes with the +140 mark. I could have gone to 150, I suppose since Allen's career was longer than Gordon's but if McPhee provided an upper bound, we're in the neighborhood already.

VERSION 2—HISTORICALLY REASONABLE FIELDING VALUE
Year Age  Lg Pos    G   PA  Bat Bsr  DP  Fld  Pos RAA   WAA  Rep  RAR   WAR  WAR162
===================================================================================
1923  22  NL  2B   51  220    2   0   0    3   2    7   1.0    7   15   1.3   1.4
1924  23  NL  2B  143  610    7   1   0    9   4   20   3.0   19   45   4.1   4.3
1925  24  NL  2B  148  640    6   1   0    9   4   20   2.8   20   46   3.9   4.1 
1926  25  NL  2B  148  630    1   1   0    9   4   16   2.6   20   41   3.7   3.9
1927  26  NL  2B  147  630   20   1   0    9   4   34   4.4   20   60   5.5   5.8
1928  27  NL  2B  145  630  - 1   1   0    9   4   13   2.2   20   38   3.3   3.5
1929  28  NL  2B  146  640   34   1   0    9   4   48   5.2   20   74   6.2   6.6
1930  29  NL  2B  146  640   38   1   0    9   4   52   5.3   20   78   6.3   6.7
1931  30  NL  2B  148  630   14   1   0    9   4   28   3.9   20   53   5.0   5.2
1932  31  NL  2B  142  610    1   1   0    9   4   14   2.4   19   39   3.4   3.6 
1933  32  NL  2B  141  590  -15   1   0    9   4  - 1   0.9   18   23   2.0   2.1
1934  33  NL  2B  139  600  -11   1   0    9   4    3   1.2   19   27   2.2   2.3
1935  34  NL  2B  140  600  - 7   1   0    9   4    6   1.5   19   31   2.6   2.7
1936  35  NL  2B  122  530    0   1   0    8   4   12   2.0   17   33   2.9   3.0
1937  36  NL  2B  115  490    3   1   0    7   4   15   2.3   15   35   3.1   3.3
1938  37  NL  2B   82  350  - 5   0   0    5   3    3   0.9   11   17   1.5   1.6
1939  38  NL  2B   70  300  - 7   0   0    5   2    0   0.4    9   12   1.0   1.0
1940  39  NL  2B   61  260  - 4   0   0    4   2    2   0.6    8   13   1.1   1.1
1941  40  NL  2B   44  190    0   0   0    3   2    5   0.8    6   13   1.2   1.2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 2278 9790   75  12   0  140  69  296  26.3  305  692  60.2  63.4


In MLE 1, he's a no-brainer candidate. In MLE 2, he's more like a Jeff Kent kind of candidate, though with a lower peak. I think Allen needs to be discussed among the electorate. That's my opinion. Given his era, I wouldn't likely vote for him, but I do think he's an important enough candidate to merit high level discussion.

The other thing to know about him is that there will potentially be more opportunity for us to gain fielding information. If the NLDB goes back and collects fielding data from the seasons that currently lack it (for example 1927 and 1926), then we could see either downward movement (most likely since it's hard to be better than he looks now) or solidification of his fielding prowess, in which case, we really need to talk about what an off-the-charts Negro Leagues fielder means to us.
   339. DL from MN Posted: December 10, 2019 at 09:35 AM (#5907380)
JoeD - this is your rodeo. If you have ballot counters we can have an election.
   340. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 10, 2019 at 01:22 PM (#5907475)
I forgot that I'd mentioned that I'd share MLEs of three other players. Here's the first Sam Bankhead.

Year Age  Lg Pos    G    PA  Bat Bsr  DP  Fld  POS  RAA   WAA  Rep  RAR   WAR  WAR162
===================================================================================== 
1931  20  NL  SS   30    130   0   1   0    1    2    3   0.3    4    7   0.8   0.8
1932  21  NL  SS  139    600   1   2   0    4    8   16   1.7   19   35   3.6   3.8
1933  22  NL  SS  143    600   3   2   0    4    8   18   2.1   19   37   4.2   4.4
1934  23  NL  SS  142    610   7   2   0    4    8   22   2.2   19   41   4.1   4.3
1935  24  NL  SS  144    620  11   2   0    4    9   27   2.7   19   46   4.7   4.9
1936  25  NL  SS  145    630  -1   2   0    4    9   14   1.4   20   34   3.4   3.6
1937  26  NL  SS  118    500  -6   2   0    4    7    7   0.7   16   23   2.4   2.5
1938  27  NL  SS  138    590  -7   2   0    4    8    8   0.8   18   26   2.8   2.9
1939  28  NL  SS  143    610  5    2   0    4    8   20   2.1   19   39   4.1   4.3
1940  29  NL  SS  142    610  12   2   0    4    8   27   2.8   19   46   4.9   5.1
1941  30  NL  SS  152    650  13   3   0    5    9   29   3.1   20   50   5.4   5.7
1942  31  NL  SS  132    560   3   2   0    4    8   17   2.0   17   35   4.0   4.2
1943  32  NL  SS  146    620  -5   2   0    5    9   11   1.2   19   30   3.5   3.6
1944  33  NL  SS  145    620  -3   2   0    4    9   13   1.4   19   32   3.5   3.7
1945  34  NL  SS  130    560   2   2   0    4    8   16   1.7   17   34   3.5   3.7
1946  35  NL  SS  136    580   5   2   0    4    8   20   2.2   18   38   4.3   4.6
1947  36  NL  SS  124    530 -12   2   0    4    7    2   0.2   17   18   1.9   2.0
1948  37  NL  SS  115    490  -3   2  -1    4    7    8   0.9   15   24   2.5   2.6
1949  38  NL  SS   91    390  -1   2  -1    3    5    9   0.9   12   21   2.2   2.3
1950  39  NL  SS   65    280   2   1   0    2    4    9   0.9    9   18   1.8   1.9
1951  40  NL  SS   16     70   0   0   0    0    1    2   0.2    2    4   0.4   0.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 2536  10850  29  42  -2   78  150  298  31.4  338  636  68.0  71.5



With Bankhead we have a more reasonable-fielding version of Newt Allen. In some ways that makes Sam more believable as an MLE. His fielding is based on 203 games (just a little more than Allen) but is primarily influenced by his final two seasons. In Bankhead's case, however, we have a lot of running value. In fact, he's among the best base runners we have MLE'ed. It's probably a good time to quickly refresh you on how I estimate base running.

I create a two-part estimate that fuses together his actual base-stealing exploits and the performance of comparable players from the PBP era.
ACTUAL RUNNING RECORD
Here I compare his SB per opportunity (H+BB+HPB-2B-3B-HR) to his league's rate of the same. I adjust for "good" and "badly" reported teams. That is, not every city's papers reported steals, so any team that's stolen more than the league's average is considered well reported and the opposite for anyone below that average. I recognize the issues with this, but each season one or two teams are obviously way underreported, and the penalty for them of an unadjusted rate is worse than someone getting hit with the adjustment. Anyway, the adjustment looks at how many approximate opps the player had in good and bad reporting cities in home and away games and makes minor tweaks. I then take the ratio of a player's rate of SB/OPP vs the his leagues, and I regress it based on a study I did a couple years ago, placing it into a runs-based, per-PA context. I just plug in that ratio and it spits back the first half of the running estimate.

COMPS RECORD
Next, I take that ratio I found of player's SB/OPP vs lgSB/OPP, and I compare it to a set of comps via the Play Index. The comps are chosen on the basis of their height, weight, and a minimum PA threshold that depends on my what I'm estimating the Negro Leaguer at. Then I determine their SB/OPP vs the lgSB/OPP for all of them, and I find the 12 players whose median is closest to the MLE player's ratio. Then I look at the Rbaser/PA of those dozen players and take their median.

MASHED TOGETHER
I take each of those two components and weight them at 50%. I combined them into a single figure that is expressed on a per PA basis. Once I've determined a player's PAs for each season, I then simply multiply this combined figure by those PAs to generate the running runs estimate.

OK, so that's the basics of the sausage making for running.

I'm sure you would agree with me that
a) It's a pretty decent guesstimate routine on the basis of what information we actually have.
b) It's filled with opportunities noise, the possibility of noise, and potentially skew/bias.
c) If it were the electoral fulcrum for a player, we'd probably not want to elect the player.

What I will say is that this method delivers the results you'd expect in terms of who is a really good runner or a really bad runner, with one notable exception, John Henry Lloyd whom it sees as a fundamentally average baserunner despite the reputation he had for Cobb-like base running.

Anyway, as you can see I've issued enough caveats here to fill us all up for the year. Generally, I'd say that if we wanted to talk about a Negro Leagues infielder throw down, it would be among Williams, Clarkson, Bankhead, and Allen, each of whom has some troubles, and for whom the data and resultant estimates are least complicated for Williams and Clarkson.
   341. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 10, 2019 at 01:38 PM (#5907484)
Last batter I'll mention: Heavy Johnson.

Year Age  Lg Pos    G    PA  Bat Bsr  DP  Fld POS  RAA   WAA  Rep  RAR   WAR  WAR162
===================================================================================== 
1916  21  NL  C    39   160    9   0   0   0    2   11   1.3    5   16   2.0   2.1
1917  22  NL  C    49   200   11   0   0   0    3   13   1.6    7   20   2.5   2.6
1918  23  NL  C    73   300   16   0   0   0    4   19   2.3   10   30   3.6   4.6
1919  24  NL  C    66   270   14   0   0   0    3   17   2.0    9   26   3.1   3.6
1920  25  NL  C   116   490   42   0   0   0    5   47   5.1   17   63   7.1   7.4
1921  26  NL  RF  117   500   44   0   0  -1   -5   37   3.7   17   54   5.5   5.8
1922  27  NL  RF  123   530   47   0   0  -1   -5   41   3.9   18   59   5.6   5.9
1923  28  NL  RF  141   610   41   0   0  -1   -6   34   3.3   21   55   5.3   5.6
1924  29  NL  RF  132   560   44   0   0  -1   -5   37   3.8   19   57   5.8   6.1
1925  30  NL  RF  130   560   -1   0   0  -1   -5   -8  -0.8   19   11   1.1   1.1
1926  31  NL  RF  120   510   17   0   0  -1   -5   11   1.1   17   28   2.9   3.1
1927  32  NL  RF  124   530   26   0   0  -1   -5   20   2.0   18   38   3.9   4.1
1928  33  NL  RF  113   490   13   0   0  -1   -5    7   0.7   17   24   2.4   2.6
1929  34  NL  RF  101   440   10   0   0  -1   -4    5   0.5   15   20   1.9   1.9
1930  35  NL  RF   68   300   10   0   0  -1   -3    7   0.6   10   17   1.5   1.6
1931  36  NL  RF    6    25    1   0   0   0    0    1   0.1    1    2   0.2   0.2
1932  37  NL  RF   46   200    8   0   0   0   -2    6   0.6    7   13   1.3   1.4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 1564  6675  351  -1   0 -11  -35  305  31.7  228  533  55.7  59.8



Dude could really rake. No doubt about it. Johnson's got some weird stuff going on, though. If you notice, he simply didn't play in a lot of his teams' games. This is not an artifact of his catching because his catching years are all whole-cloth estimates. He was in the Wreckers with Dobie and Bullet in those years before the NNL. Johnson disappears from the record for 1921, and IIRC, Gary Ashwill might have said that Heavy stayed an extra year with the Wreckers before making the permanent jump to the NNL in 1922 (where he was an immediate sensation).

He disappears again for 1929, so that's a whole-cloth season. Jim Riley has nothing to say about it. Then in 1930-1932, he's just kinda hanging around the fringes. Riley has him in the league in 1933, but I have yet to see any information to confirm it. I've held back on him because of the small possibility that he could be part of the 1932 Negro Southern League data that is next on the list for the NLDB. We won't get that update before we vote, so we'll just have to wait and see. I don't have information about any of his latter-career movements.

That said, he's one of the best hitters I've MLE'ed outside of the truly great players like Gibson and Charleston. Forty Rbat in an MLE is nothing to sneeze at, and he did that several years in a row.

I don't think he fills a need among OFs or prewar players, and I won't have him on my ballot.
   342. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 10, 2019 at 01:54 PM (#5907492)
Now our final Negro Leagues candidate for this election, Hilton Smith.

Year  Age  Lg  G    IP     R   RA9 lgRA9  RAA  pWAA  pWAR    PA    Bat bWAR  WAR
================================================================================
1932  25  NL  36   180    83  4.14  4.60    9   0.9   2.8    60   -0.5  0.4  3.1
1933  26  NL  34   210    82  3.53  3.97   10   1.2   3.2    70   -0.6  0.4  3.7
1934  27  NL  36   200    95  4.28  4.68    9   0.9   3.0    67   -0.6  0.4  3.4
1935  28  NL  35   220   117  4.78  4.71   -2  -0.2   2.1    73   -0.8  0.4  2.6
1936  29  NL  42   270   142  4.75  4.71   -1  -0.1   2.7    90   -0.8  0.6  3.3
1937  30  NL  37   260   132  4.57  4.51   -2  -0.2   2.5    87   -0.8  0.6  3.1
1938  31  NL  40   260   114  3.96  4.42   13   1.4   4.0    87   -0.8  0.6  4.7
1939  32  NL  38   260   121  4.20  4.44    7   0.7   3.4    87   -0.8  0.6  4.0
1940  33  NL  37   270    88  2.94  4.39   43   4.9   7.6    90   -0.8  0.6  8.2
1941  34  NL  34   210    81  3.45  4.23   18   2.0   4.1    70   -0.6  0.5  4.6
1942  35  NL  28   180    99  4.94  3.90  -21  -2.2  -0.4    60   -0.5  0.4  0.0
1943  36  NL  31   160    45  2.52  3.94   25   3.0   4.5    53   -0.5  0.3  4.8
1944  37  NL   4    20     7  3.18  4.25    2   0.3   0.5     7   -0.1  0.0  0.5 
1945  38  NL  29   180    79  3.93  4.46   11   1.1   2.9    60   -0.5  0.3  3.3
1946  39  NL  33   180    77  3.86  3.96    2   0.2   2.0    60   -0.5  0.4  2.4
1947  40  NL  33   180   107  5.34  4.57  -15  -1.5   0.4    60   -0.5  0.4  0.7
1948  41  NL  33   180    80  4.01  4.43    8   1.0   3.2    60   -0.5  0.4  3.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             560  3420  1549  4.08        117  13.5  48.5  1141  -10.0  7.4 55.9


As you can see, Smith lags behind Rosie Davis, William Bell, and Webster McDonald despite his batting excellence. Smith could benefit from the 1932 update when it happens. He spent his rookie season in that circuit. Smith frequently benefitted from good defenses (Newt Allen was a longtime teammate). His career is kinda like Mickey Lolich or someone like that who was a better than average hurler with one really big lights-out kind of season thrown in there.

OK, I think that's everyone that has drawn support or been mentioned in the last several elections!
   343. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 10, 2019 at 06:10 PM (#5907607)
Doc, please post Clarkson, he looked pretty good and one of the best with prime/peak war credit.
   344. DL from MN Posted: December 10, 2019 at 06:29 PM (#5907610)
Clarkson is post #260
   345. kcgard2 Posted: December 10, 2019 at 09:07 PM (#5907630)
@233, jumping in late now, but I did some rough math on the representation of NgL players back in the 2018 discussion (when I first started trying to wrestle with Ben Taylor and germinated what has now been a long and interesting path down Chaleeko's MLEs and NgL analysis in general). To summarize, 10% of players in HOM (at that time) were NgL selections, though NgL players represented probably about 5 or 6% of the eligible player pool. In my personal opinion, NgL players are already over-represented in HOM, though I know others disagree.

I'm very glad to see the support Andruw Jones is getting in some early posted ballots here! I thought I was a big outlier last year when I had him #2 overall, though one other person also had him that high. I also felt like a high outlier on Tommy John, and it seems like he's getting some love in these early ballots as well. Glad that Appier has been mentioned several times. Maybe Johan Santana is getting a better look this year than last as well. I guess last I'll say that Ventura is a dark horse I've been considering strongly the last 3 years as well, and he made Jaack's prelim ballot here. I'm glad to see I am rubbing off on so many people ;)

Kiko, I have played with your spreadsheet 16 different ways and combos, and no matter what I do, Vern Stephens comes out one of the top 3 players. I think you rigged it somehow. And so I keep going back and looking at his career and wondering...why is this career the top of every re-run? Short-ish career, good but not outstanding peak (by HOM standards). Even if I downgrade the WWII years, your sheet doesn't seem to care. Is it because there's so little decline phase going on? I just want to know why Stephens is in by every possible finagling of your sheet! He is the sort of profile I like - well rounded player at strong defensive position - but despite that he won't make my ballot.
   346. DL from MN Posted: December 11, 2019 at 10:11 AM (#5907724)
If we wanted to talk about a Negro Leagues infielder throw down, it would be among Williams, Clarkson, Bankhead, and Allen


I need to put Negro Leaguers in context. If there are 4 infielders with similar credentials the odds are more in favor that none of them are HoM players rather than all of them. The re-evaluation of Dick Redding which moved him way up the list among NGL pitchers sort of forced his election. If these players are just more names at the bottom of the list they aren't as compelling.
   347. DL from MN Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:00 AM (#5908410)
Who is volunteering to count ballots this year?
   348. cookiedabookie Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:56 AM (#5908441)
Who is volunteering to count ballots this year?

I can, assuming someone can tell me the points per slot
   349. rwargo Posted: December 13, 2019 at 11:17 AM (#5908448)
Updated WAA table after the 1926 data. This is best of WAA, OffWAA, or PitWAA in career in the entire NLDB. These have not been adjusted for league quality. Still, the fact we have elected all of the top 20, plus 25 out of the top 32.

# Player            Years      Pos PA    IP     HoF  HoM  WAA   Off   Fld    Pit   Adj   Total   B/700   P/300
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  O. Charleston    1915-1941  8   6706   170.1 ✔   ✔   55.6  56.6   6.0  -2.3  -4.6   56.6    5.9
2  Josh Gibson      1930-1946  2   3751     1.2 ✔   ✔   43.9  40.9   1.5  -0.3   1.8   43.9    8.2
3  C. Torriente     1912-1928  8   5062   402.0 ✔   ✔   38.6  43.3   1.2  -1.9  -4.1   43.3    6.0
4  Bullet Rogan     1916-1938  1   2607  1683.1 ✔   ✔   41.8  18.9   1.6  22.5  -1.2   41.8            7.5
5  Willie Wells     1924-1948  6   5571     0.2 ✔   ✔   41.3  29.6   4.5   0.0   7.3   41.3    5.2 
6  Turkey Stearnes  1923-1940  8   4329     7.0 ✔   ✔   36.6  36.5   2.7  -0.8  -1.9   36.6    5.9 
7  Satchel Paige    1927-1947  1    684  1538.2 ✔   ✔   35.9  -0.3  -0.1  36.3   0.0   36.3            7.1
8  Joe Williams     1907-1932  1   1115  2210.1 ✔   ✔   33.7  4.7    0.3  28.9  -0.1   33.7            4.6
9  J. Lloyd         1906-1932  6   5693         ✔   ✔   33.5  25.3   1.8   0.0   6.3   33.5    4.1 
10 Pete Hill        1904-1925  8   4185    13.0 ✔   ✔   32.2  31.3   5.0  -0.2  -3.7   32.2    5.4 
11 Jud Wilson       1922-1945  5   4524         ✔   ✔   31.2  30.8   1.9   0.0  -1.5   31.2    4.8 
12 Ray Brown        1931-1945  1   1470  1537.2 ✔   ✔   29.8   4.7  -0.2  25.9  -0.5   29.8            5.8
13 Mule Suttles     1923-1944  3   3945    16.0 ✔   ✔   26.0  29.6   0.6  -0.2  -3.8   29.6    5.3 
14 José Méndez      1907-1926  1   2406  1868.2 ✔   ✔   25.8  -3.5   0.5  28.4   0.4   28.4            4.6
15 Martín Dihigo    1922-1945  9   2981   781.0 ✔   ✔   27.7  13.5   4.0  10.3  -0.1   27.7    6.5 
16 Willie Foster    1923-1937  1    791  1863.1 ✔   ✔   26.2  -0.8   0.0  27.2   0.0   27.2            4.4
17 Dobie Moore      1916-1926  6   2458              ✔   26.1  13.4   9.1   0.0   3.5   26.1    7.4 
18 Cool Papa Bell   1922-1946  8   6587   310.1 ✔   ✔   23.4  25.7  -2.6   3.7  -3.3   25.7    2.7 
19 Dick Lundy       1916-1937  6   3876     0.2      ✔   24.7  11.8   7.5   0.0   5.4   24.7    4.5 
20 Buck Leonard     1933-1948  3   2794         ✔   ✔   22.0  23.4   1.4   0.0  -2.8   23.4    5.9 
21 Carlos Morán     1899-1915  5   2621                   23.2  14.3   7.3   0.0   1.6   23.2    6.2 
22 William Bell     1923-1937  1    868  1666.1           21.9   1.1   0.2  20.6  -0.1   21.9            3.9
23 Juan Padrón      1915-1926  1    617  1450.0           19.7  -1.1  -0.2  21.0   0.0   21.0            4.3
24 Bill Byrd        1933-1948  1    899  1396.2           20.9   3.5  -0.1  17.7  -0.1   20.9            4.5
25 John Beckwith    1919-1937  5   2537    22.1      ✔   20.0  18.5  -0.5   0.5   1.4   20.0    5.5 
26 Ben Taylor       1909-1929  3   4250   282.0 ✔        19.2  17.3   5.1   0.5  -3.6   19.2    3.2 
27 Nip Winters      1921-1932  1    877  1461.2           18.9   3.6  -0.4  15.8  -0.2   18.9            3.9
28 Grant Johnson    1895-1914  6   1790     6.2      ✔   18.7   9.7   7.5  -0.1   1.6   18.7    7.3 
29 Dick Redding     1911-1936  1   1059  2243.2      ✔   18.4   0.1  -0.4  18.7  -0.1   18.7            2.5
30 Willard Brown    1935-1948  8   1995         ✔   ✔   18.1  17.5   1.2   0.0  -0.6   18.1    6.4 
31 Hurley McNair    1910-1937  9   3769   122.1           17.4  17.7   3.8  -0.3  -3.9   17.7    3.3 
32 Biz Mackey       1920-1947  2   4334    20.1 ✔   ✔   17.1  14.0   1.2  -0.9   2.8   17.1    2.8 
33 Heavy Johnson    1916-1932  9   2128     3.0           12.1  16.7  -3.0   0.2  -1.8   16.7    5.5 
34 Hilton Smith     1935-1948  1    503  1027.2 ✔        16.3   1.8  -0.5  15.0  -0.1   16.3            4.8
35 Carlos Royer     1899-1910  1    728  1284.0           16.2   0.7  -0.3  15.9  -0.1   16.2            3.8
36 Leon Day         1934-1946  1    723   709.1 ✔        15.3   2.7  -0.1  12.6   0.0   15.3            6.5
37 George Scales    1921-1946  4   3431     8.0           15.1  13.9   0.1   0.0   1.1   15.1    3.1 
38 W. McDonald      1922-1940  1    576  1341.2           14.4  -0.5  -0.1  15.0   0.0   15.0            3.4
39 Andy Cooper      1920-1939  1    728  1806.1 ✔        12.7  -2.2   0.0  14.8   0.0   14.8            2.5
40 Leroy Matlock    1929-1941  1    448  1237.0           14.3  -0.1   0.4  14.2  -0.1   14.3            3.5
41 B. Wright        1933-1945  8   2364                   13.0  14.0   0.3   0.0  -1.3   14.0    4.1 
42 Rap Dixon        1922-1937  9   2492     5.0           13.9  13.0   2.7   0.2  -2.0   13.9    3.9 
43 Adolfo Luque     1911-1927  1    627   901.0           13.8   1.2  -0.5  13.1   0.0   13.8            4.6
44 José Muñoz       1900-1913  1   1119  1789.1           12.0  -0.8  -0.4  13.7  -0.4   13.7            2.3
45 José Junco       1909-1922  1    758  1113.0           10.7  -0.9  -1.5  13.4  -0.3   13.4            3.6
46 Julián Castillo  1901-1914  3   1958    13.0           10.7  13.2  -1.1   0.1  -1.6   13.2    4.7 
47 Ted Trent        1927-1939  1    517  1343.2           10.3  -2.9   0.0  13.2   0.0   13.2            2.9
48 Sam Streeter     1921-1936  1    651  1484.1           13.1   2.1   0.0  11.1   0.0   13.1            2.6
50 Bill Holland     1919-1941  1    836  1943.0            9.7  -3.0  -0.3  13.0   0.0   13.0            2.0
49 Rats Henderson   1922-1931  1    507  1149.2           10.7  -2.2  -0.1  13.0   0.0   13.0            3.4
51 Dave Brown       1919-1925  1    415  1008.0           11.5  -1.4   0.0  12.9   0.0   12.9            3.8
52 Barney Brown     1931-1948  1   1058  1290.2           11.2  -1.5   0.2  12.9  -0.5   12.9            3.0
53 Red Ryan         1919-1932  1    586  1377.1           12.4  -0.4   0.0  12.8   0.0   12.8            2.8
54 Sam Bankhead     1933-1948  6   3705     2.0           12.0   5.2   3.6   0.1   3.2   12.0    2.3 
55 C. Blackwell     1915-1929  9   2729                    8.8  11.9  -0.7   0.0  -2.5   11.9    3.1 
56 Charlie Smith    1925-1931  9   1126                   11.8  10.1   2.0   0.0  -0.3   11.8    7.3 
57 Johnny Wright    1937-1947  1    258   625.1           10.5  -1.3   0.0  11.8   0.0   11.8            5.7
58 Bill Pettus      1909-1923  3   1680     3.2           11.6   8.7   3.6   0.0  -0.7   11.6    4.8 
59 Bingo DeMoss     1910-1930  4   3925                    7.2  -5.4  11.1   0.0   1.5   11.1    1.3 
60 Newt Allen       1922-1947  4   4450     0.2           11.0   3.7   3.7   0.0   3.6   11.0    1.7 
61 Dave Barnhill    1941-1948  1    282   584.1           10.9   0.8   0.0  10.1   0.0   10.9            5.6
64 Edgar Wesley     1917-1927  3   2449                    9.6  10.6   1.3   0.0  -2.3   10.6    3.0 
63 Alejandro Oms    1917-1935  8   2059    32.0 ✔         9.8  10.6   0.2   0.3  -1.2   10.6    3.6 
62 E. Pedroso       1907-1926  1   2848  2209.0           10.6   6.8  -5.0  10.6  -1.8   10.6            1.4
65 Roy Partlow      1936-1948  1    412   636.0           10.3   0.4  -0.3  10.3  -0.1   10.3            4.9
66 Louis Santop     1910-1926  2   1969         ✔   ✔   10.1   9.3  -0.6   0.0   1.4   10.1    3.6 
-- Judy Johnson     1918-1936  5   4307     4.1 ✔         9.4  -0.9   7.5   0.0   2.8    9.4    1.5 
-- Monte Irvin      1938-1948  8   1200         ✔   ✔    7.9   7.7  -0.1   0.0   0.3    7.9    4.6 
-- Rube Foster      1902-1917  1    663   983.1 ✔   ✔    5.7   1.9   0.3   3.7  -0.2    5.7            1.7
-- Quincy Trouppe   1930-1948  2   1394     9.1      ✔    4.9   3.8   0.7  -0.1   0.4    4.9    2.5 
-- Ray Dandridge    1933-1944  5   1587         ✔         3.9   3.0   0.1   0.0   0.7    3.9    1.7 
-- Frank Grant      1891-1907  4    234         ✔   ✔    0.7   1.0  -0.4   0.0   0.1    1.0    3.0 
   350. rwargo Posted: December 13, 2019 at 11:28 AM (#5908456)
The above leads me to believe we should take a careful look at the 7 players in the top 32. namely:

# Player            Years      Pos PA    IP     HoF  HoM  WAA   Off   Fld    Pit   Adj   Total   B/700   P/300
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 Carlos Morán     1899-1915  5   2621                   23.2  14.3   7.3   0.0   1.6   23.2    6.2 
22 William Bell     1923-1937  1    868  1666.1           21.9   1.1   0.2  20.6  -0.1   21.9            3.9
23 Juan Padrón      1915-1926  1    617  1450.0           19.7  -1.1  -0.2  21.0   0.0   21.0            4.3
24 Bill Byrd        1933-1948  1    899  1396.2           20.9   3.5  -0.1  17.7  -0.1   20.9            4.5
26 Ben Taylor       1909-1929  3   4250   282.0 ✔         19.2  17.3   5.1   0.5  -3.6   19.2    3.2 
27 Nip Winters      1921-1932  1    877  1461.2           18.9   3.6  -0.4  15.8  -0.2   18.9            3.9
31 Hurley McNair    1910-1937  9   3769   122.1           17.4  17.7   3.8  -0.3  -3.9   17.7    3.3 



Among hitters, Morán has the best case by B/700 and by raw numbers, but has league quality issues. Taylor and McNair are fine, but would be our lowest B/700 in the top 32 other than Biz Mackey and Cool Papa Bell.

Out of the pitchers above, Bell, Padrón, Byrd, and Winters have similar raw numbers and rates. Bell has about 200 more innings than the others, and Winters is slightly behind the pack.


I may end up with no NL players on my ballot this year for the first time in a while.

Speaking of which, let's get the ballot up.

   351. rwargo Posted: December 13, 2019 at 11:30 AM (#5908461)
Edit ti Post 349 - Still, the fact we have elected all of the top 20, plus 25 out of the top 32 is interesting.
   352. DL from MN Posted: December 13, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5908469)
60 Newt Allen 1922-1947 4 4450 0.2 11.0 3.7 3.7 0.0 3.6 11.0 1.7


The MLE doesn't make sense if this is the data set it drew from.

BTW - Oms should be checkmarked for HoM also.
   353. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 13, 2019 at 11:43 AM (#5908473)
Let's talk about number two. The MLE is using the fielding data the same way that all other MLEs do. In Allen's case, it's a little under 200 games' worth of data.


Dr. C., I have a question about your fielding data. Let me preface with an apology: I'm sure you've answered this before. What exactly are the fielding data that you have? Just putouts, assists, DP's, errors at a seasonal level? Or are there some limited play-by-play (or even game-by-game?) data available? Thanks! And thanks for all of the great information here!
   354. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 13, 2019 at 12:47 PM (#5908505)
Among hitters, Morán has the best case by B/700 and by raw numbers, but has league quality issues.
And he has the left-handed third baseman problem.

The MLE doesn't make sense if this is the data set it drew from.
It's absolutely possible I've done something drastically wrong with Allen's MLE. I would never say otherwise. But remember, I don't just take the NLDB's WAR data, and I likely generate the value a little differently than the gents at NLDB do. So it's possible for me to get results that seem a little different from theirs.

What exactly are the fielding data that you have?
I'm using the DRA available on the NLDB rather than going back to raw fielding totals. I then transmute it to an Rfield total for the purposes of the MLEs I post. I do that because I'm otherwise using BBREF's WAR calculations for batting and pitching and matching their visual presentation.

I may end up with no NL players on my ballot this year for the first time in a while.

I would endorse this. I don't feel any urgency around a Negro Leagues candidate now that Redding's been elected. There's nothing screaming elect-me about our remaining guys. Especially not when we consider that virtually all of them come from an era that's already over-represented.
   355. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 13, 2019 at 02:34 PM (#5908539)
I'm using the DRA available on the NLDB rather than going back to raw fielding totals. I then transmute it to an Rfield total for the purposes of the MLEs I post. I do that because I'm otherwise using BBREF's WAR calculations for batting and pitching and matching their visual presentation.


Thanks, Dr. C.!
   356. kcgard2 Posted: December 13, 2019 at 05:51 PM (#5908596)
cookie: the official ballot rules are here https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/discussion/our_constitution

Electees
1: 24-19-18-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6
2: 24-23-18-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6
3: 24-23-22-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6
4: 24-23-22-21-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6
5: 24-23-22-21-20-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6

Since this is an elect 4 year, you should use the point totals on line 4, is my understanding of the point values for each voting slot.
   357. cookiedabookie Posted: December 14, 2019 at 06:18 PM (#5908741)
@356 thanks kcgard2!

On another note, I decided to revise my system. It felt a bit off to me. Here's what my new top 25 looks like:

1 Derek Jeter
2 Andruw Jones
3 Andy Pettitte
4 Kenny Lofton
5 Buddy Bell
6 Luis Tiant
7 Thurman Munson
8 Bobby Bonds
9 Joe Tinker
10 Bob Johnson
11 Sammy Sosa
12 Chuck Finley
13 Bobby Abreu
14 Vic Willis
15 Urban Shocker
16 Sal Bando
17 Kevin Appier
18 Wally Schang
19 Eddie Cicotte
20 Todd Helton
21 Lance Berkman
22 John Olerud
23 Johan Santana
24 Jeff Kent
25 Dwight Gooden

I reduced the peak value a bit. Really hit Johan hard. I'll continue to tinker after this ballot, but this is pretty close to (or exactly) what I will post when the official ballot goes up.
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