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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Thursday, January 07, 2021

2021 Hall of Merit Election Results: Lofton, Santana & Kent

Congratulations to our newest members of the Hall of Merit: Kenny Lofton, Johan Santana and Jeff Kent

RK   LY  Player              PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1    5  Kenny Lofton        397   21   7  2  2  2  3  2  1                    1  1
 2    6  Johan Santana       323   22      2  2  4  1  1  1  4     1  4  1  1      
 3    8  Jeff Kent           302   18   3  3  2  3              2     2  1     1  1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 4   10  Bobby Abreu         256   16   1  2  1  2  2  4           2        2      
 5    7  Sammy Sosa          237   17   2  1  1  1  3        1  1  2           2  3
 6   18  Andy Pettitte       223   18   2        1  1        3  2  1  1  3  3  1   
7T   11  Buddy Bell          211   13   1  2  3  1        1  1     1           2  1
7T    9  Lance Berkman       211   13   1  3  1        3  1        2        1  1   
 9   12  Wally Schang        207   12   1  1  3  2        1  2     1     1         
10   13  Bobby Bonds         179   14   1     1     2     2     2     2     2  1  1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11   14  Sal Bando           175   12      1  1  2  2  1  1           1  2     1   
12   15  Vic Willis          146   11   1  1     1  1        1  1        3  1     1
13   17  Ben Taylor          144   11      1  1  1     1     1  1     1  1  2  1   
14   24  Thurman Munson      143   11   1  1     1     2           1     1  1  3   
15   19  Tommy John          141   10   1  1           1  2  2           1  2      
16   22  Urban Shocker       137   10         1  1     2  1     1  2  2            
17   16  Bob Johnson         134   11               1  2  2  2  1     1           2
18   23  Phil Rizzuto        133   10      1  2                 1  2     1  2  1   
19  n/a  Tim Hudson          127   10      2        1  1        1  1     1        3
20   21  Jorge Posada         92    6   1        1  1     1        1  1            
21   25  Jason Giambi         81    5         1     1  1  2                        
22   29  Bert Campaneris      74    7   1                    1        1        3  1
23   20  Don Newcombe         74    6                  1  1  2        1  1         
24   39T Joe Tinker           69    6         1           1     1           1  1  1
25   30  Tommy Leach          68    5            1  1        1     2               
26   26  Tommy Bridges        66    4   1           1     1     1                  
27   31  Roy Oswalt           59    6            1           1              2  1  1
28   33  Tommy Bond           55    3         2                    1               
29   32  Dizzy Dean           54    3   1           1     1                        
30   28  Kevin Appier         51    4               1     2                    1   
31T n/a  Mark Buehrle         44    3         1           1                 1      
31T  36T Fred McGriff         44    3         1                    2               
33   44T Luke Easter          40    2   1           1                              
34   35  Art Fletcher         39    3                  1     1     1               
35   36T Gavy Cravath         37    4               1                       1  1  1
36   27  Hugh Duffy           37    2         1        1                           
37   62  Bob Elliott          36    3                  2                          1
38   42  Hilton Smith         36    2      1                 1                     
39   41  Bus Clarkson         35    2      1                    1                  
40   70T Bernie Williams      34    3                           2     1            
41   39T Bucky Walters        33    4                              1  1           2
42   51  Jim McCormick        33    2   1                                1         
43   70T Frank Chance         32    3                           1  1     1         
44   43  Brian Giles          29    3                        1           1     1   
45   47  Mickey Welch         28    3                        1           1        1
46   34  Vern Stephens        27    2            1                    1            
47T  49  Babe Adams           26    2               1                 1            
47T  53T Dolf Luque           26    2            1                       1         
49   50  Luis Aparicio        25    2                        1  1                  
50T  74T Hurley McNair        23    2            1                                1
50T  52  Tony Perez           23    2                     1              1         
50T  48  Bobby Veach          23    2               1                          1   
53T  55  Lou Brock            23    1      1                                       
53T  --  Mike Tiernan         23    1      1                                       
55T  38  Eddie Cicotte        21    2                           1        1         
55T  60T Tony Mullane         21    2                  1                          1
57   --  Jack Quinn           20    2                           1           1      
58   80T Jim Sundberg         19    2                                 1  1         
59   74T Chuck Finley         16    2                                 1           1
60   --  Charlie Smith        16    1               1                              
61   57T Elston Howard        15    1                  1                           
62T  63T Luis Gonzalez        14    1                     1                        
62T  46  Ernie Lombardi       14    1                     1                        
62T  83T Kirby Puckett        14    1                     1                        
62T  --  George Uhle          14    1                     1                        
66   --  Gene Tenace          13    2                                          1  1
67   63T Lee Smith            13    1                        1                     
68T  --  Willie Davis         12    1                           1                  
68T  --  Mark Langston        12    1                           1                  
68T  60T Mickey Lolich        12    1                           1                  
68T  70T Lance Parrish        12    1                           1                  
68T  67T Darryl Strawberry    12    1                           1                  
68T  67T Billy Wagner         12    1                           1                  
74T  63T Kiki Cuyler          11    1                              1               
74T  63T Al Rosen             11    1                              1               
74T  74T Jim Whitney          11    1                              1               
77T  86T Orel Hershiser       10    1                                 1            
77T n/a  Torii Hunter         10    1                                 1            
77T  44T Addie Joss           10    1                                 1            
77T  --  Pie Traynor          10    1                                 1            
77T  83T Ned Williamson       10    1                                 1            
82T  --  Norm Cash             9    1                                    1         
82T  83T Tommy Henrich         9    1                                    1         
82T  80T Frank Tanana          9    1                                    1         
85T  --  Fred Dunlap           8    1                                       1      
85T  74T Johnny Evers          8    1                                       1      
85T  --  Toby Harrah           8    1                                       1      
85T  56  Dale Murphy           8    1                                       1      
85T  --  Roy White             8    1                                       1      
90T  --  Cesar Cedeno          7    1                                          1   
90T  --  Jim Gilliam           7    1                                          1   
90T  53T Dwight Gooden         7    1                                          1   
93T  --  Dave Concepcion       6    1                                             1
93T  86T John Olerud           6    1                                             1
93T  --  George Van Haltren    6    1                                             1
Dropped Out: Dave Bancroft(70T), Charlie Buffinton(57T), Nomar Carciaparra(59), Ron Guidry(74T), Harry Hooper(74T), Cliff Lee(80T), Javier Vazquez(67T), Robin Ventura(86T).
Ballots Cast: 28
DL from MN Posted: January 07, 2021 at 09:28 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: January 07, 2021 at 09:55 PM (#5998145)
Interesting that it doesn't really look close in the end considering how bunched together they were coming into the year.

Abreu is our new top returning player edging ahead of Sosa. I concur with that evaluation.

Hudson debuts in the backlog and Buehrle in the deep backlog.
   2. Chris Cobb Posted: January 07, 2021 at 10:49 PM (#5998164)
Thank you, DL and the ballot counting team for getting the results posted quickly and cleanly!
   3. Chris Cobb Posted: January 07, 2021 at 10:50 PM (#5998165)
Thank you, DL and the ballot counting team, for getting the results posted quickly and cleanly!
   4. Yardape Posted: January 07, 2021 at 11:22 PM (#5998174)
And also for moving my ballot from the prelim to the ballot thread. I tried this afternoon, but couldn't post. I still can't post in that thread, actually.

But thank you.
   5. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 07, 2021 at 11:24 PM (#5998175)
Thanks all, delightful to see 3 modern players from the backlog Cooperstown has mostly ignored gain entry at the Hall of Merit, what a fine institution this is, well done everyone!
   6. kwarren Posted: January 08, 2021 at 12:36 AM (#5998190)
So who will be newly eligible for next year. I assume that we will be electing four.

In the last two elections Andruw, Lofton, & Santana have elected. This really highlights the difference between the Hall of Fame (where all three were one and done) and the Hall of Merit.
   7. cookiedabookie Posted: January 08, 2021 at 12:53 AM (#5998196)
A-Rod is the big one next year, then Ortiz
   8. Chris Cobb Posted: January 08, 2021 at 01:02 AM (#5998200)
Here's the list of newly eligibles that the Honorable Ardo posted on the New Eligibles by Year thread last January:

2022 new eligible candidates

Alex Rodriguez
David Ortiz
Mark Teixeira
Jimmy Rollins
Carl Crawford
Jake Peavy
Coco Crisp
Justin Morneau
Prince Fielder
Joe Nathan

In addition to A-Rod and Ortiz, Teixeira might also get some votes. Most likely, A-Rod will be elected along with 3 from the backlog, unless half the electorate boycotts A-Rod . . .
   9. Jaack Posted: January 08, 2021 at 01:13 AM (#5998202)
Are we still using the token appearances rule? Because if we are, then David Wright should also be eligible, as his 2018 appearance meets both the letter and the spirit of the rule. If we do make him eligible, I imagine he'll get some support too.
   10. SoSH U at work Posted: January 08, 2021 at 01:29 AM (#5998208)
This really highlights the difference between the Hall of Fame (where all three were one and done) and the Hall of Merit.


Well, two of them were one and done. Andruw has a good chance of making it.
   11. DL from MN Posted: January 08, 2021 at 08:54 AM (#5998223)
Any volunteers to write plaques? I'm assuming a Twins hat for Santana (yay!), Indians for Lofton and Giants for Kent.

The inductees clearly meet the standards we have established. Santana is similar to pitchers Saberhagen, Cone and Stieb. Jeff Kent compares well to Willie Randolph at the bottom of the second basemen but above the borderline. I have Lofton as borderline mainly because I haven't inducted nearly as many centerfielders but he meets the standards of CF we have elected (Averill, Oms, Doby, Dawson, Wynn). I will probably induct him PHoM sooner or later.
   12. Al Peterson Posted: January 08, 2021 at 10:09 AM (#5998240)
Well done by the group...three good additions. Even though Santana didn't ballot for me I can see where others would have him up higher if you're more peak oriented.

95 different names on 28 ballots - comparing players historically is tough!
   13. DL from MN Posted: January 08, 2021 at 10:37 AM (#5998248)
3 modern players from the backlog


These probably qualify as "frontlog" players. They debuted ahead of the historical backlog but not high enough to beat out the other new players.
   14. bachslunch Posted: January 08, 2021 at 10:47 AM (#5998250)
@8 and 9: Mark Teixeira and David Wright for me will have to get in line. As of now, I've got them 7th at their respective positions:

1B: Taylor, Olerud, Perez, McGriff, Cash, Giambi, Teixeira.
3B: Bell, Bando, Ventura, Cey, Harrah, Elliott, Wright.
   15. Carl Goetz Posted: January 08, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#5998324)
Thrilled with Lofton and Santana while OK with Kent (no real issues with his election, but I have several ranked ahead of him) and again disappointed in Schang and Munson's placing.
Overall, we are still quite a disagreeable bunch (not that that's a bad thing). Only Santana and and Lofton made 75% of ballots. I know I've suggested in the past that ballots get expanded to help sort through some of that. The guys in the top 10 that are off my current ballot would likely place on a 20 or 25 man ballot and I assume that's true for others. That might help differentiate some of these close calls. That said, I think we have a great system and group of electors; just wanted to offer a potential tweak.
   16. Patrick W Posted: January 08, 2021 at 01:23 PM (#5998342)
HOM Election Database is updated & saved to Google Docs here:

HoM Elections - 2021
   17. DL from MN Posted: January 08, 2021 at 01:38 PM (#5998347)
As far as "backlog" players we've only elected two in the past 10 elections - Luis Tiant and Dick Redding. Everyone else has been a modern era player. Barring some re-evaluation like we saw with Redding we may not get into the backlog again until 2024 or 2025.
   18. progrockfan Posted: January 08, 2021 at 01:41 PM (#5998348)
Barring some re-evaluation like we saw with Redding we may not get into the backlog again until 2024 or 2025.
cough cough Easter cough cough
   19. Howie Menckel Posted: January 08, 2021 at 01:48 PM (#5998352)
there ARE three Easters before 2024
   20. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 08, 2021 at 02:35 PM (#5998373)
As far as "backlog" players we've only elected two in the past 10 elections - Luis Tiant and Dick Redding. Everyone else has been a modern era player. Barring some re-evaluation like we saw with Redding we may not get into the backlog again until 2024 or 2025.


2022 is showing as an elect 4, we should have A Rod + 3 others.

Bell, Schang, Bonds are all close enough they could gain one of those spots without much change next year.

Hurley McNair could vault if we get more data comfort in Eric's MLEs.
   21. kcgard2 Posted: January 08, 2021 at 04:37 PM (#5998412)
I can write plaques. Will have them updated along with the HOM plaque room site sometime this weekend.
   22. kcgard2 Posted: January 08, 2021 at 04:50 PM (#5998415)
I've calculated consensus scores for this year's voting. The higher the number, the farther away from consensus the voter was. You can roughly think of the number as the average distance from the electorate's voting spot a voter ranked his 15 players.

Voter Consensus Score
kwarren 11.34
Rob Wood 12.47
Qufini 12.84
kcgard2 13.61
JoeD 13.68
Mike Webber 14.08
Al Peterson 14.24
cookiedabookie 14.27
bachslunch 14.79
Howie Menckel 14.97
Bleed the Freak 15.34
Esteban Rivera 15.49
Honorable Ardo 15.54
Chris Cobb 15.55
Brent 15.76
Devin 17.28
progrockfan 17.44
Dr. Chaleeko 17.86
Carl Goetz 18.14
rwargo 18.39
Jaack 18.82
DL from MN 19.45
Kiko Sakata 19.60
John Murphy 20.25
Michael Binkley 21.03
Patrick W 22.02
Yardape 24.31
bjhanke 27.11
   23. The Honorable Ardo Posted: January 08, 2021 at 08:06 PM (#5998470)
The return of consensus scores! Thank you kcgard! I remember the good ol' days when karlmagnus and yest could be counted on to have the two highest scores :)
   24. The Honorable Ardo Posted: January 08, 2021 at 08:18 PM (#5998473)
And a newer tradition: the annual One-Vote Team!

C: Elston Howard
1B: John Olerud
2B: Johnny Evers
SS: Dave Concepion
3B: Pie Traynor
LF: Lou Brock
CF: Kirby Puckett
RF: Darryl Strawberry

Bench: Lance Parrish, Fred Dunlap, Al Rosen, Ned Williamson, Dale Murphy, George Van Haltren, Cesar Cedeno

Rotation:
Dwight Gooden
Mickey Lolich
Addie Joss
George Uhle
Orel Hershisher

Bullpen: Lee Smith, Billy Wagner, Mark Langston, Frank Tanana, Jim Whitney

This team would win a lot of games. You have to be *really good* even to be considered by the Hall of Merit.
   25. The Honorable Ardo Posted: January 08, 2021 at 08:34 PM (#5998477)
I conclude with a more comprehensive list of 2016 retirements/2022 candidates.

Batters:
Alex Rodriguez
David Ortiz
David Wright*
Mark Teixeira
Jimmy Rollins
Carl Crawford
Coco Crisp
Justin Morneau
Marlon Byrd
Prince Fielder
A.J. Pierzynski
Michael Bourn
Juan Uribe
Alexei Ramirez

All of these players had > 20 WAR. Sorry, Ryan Howard.

Pitchers:
Jake Peavy
Joe Nathan
Jonathan Papelbon
Scott Kazmir
Tim Lincecum
John Danks

And, sadly, Jose Fernandez, who had 13 WAR in just 76 starts and 471 innings pitched.

*Wright qualifies under the Token Appearances rule, with his last significant playing time in 2016 and only two games in 2018. I'd like the electorate's help in identifying who else might be eligible that way.
   26. Jaack Posted: January 08, 2021 at 09:34 PM (#5998496)
I think Wright is the only token appearance guy of any importance for 2022.

Going ahead a couple of years

2023: Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia, Troy Tulowitzki, Ervin Santana
2024: Ichiro Suzuki

Pedroia is still under contract and Santana is in the minors, so maybe they play in 2021.
   27. Howie Menckel Posted: January 08, 2021 at 09:34 PM (#5998497)
per Post 24

that is as perfectly versatile a 15-man hitting roster as one could ask for.

100 G minimum per position

C - EHoward 1138, Parrish 1818
1B - Olerud 2053, Cedeno 258, DMurphy 209
2B - Evers 1735, Dunlap 163, Concepcion 130
SS - Concepcion 2178, Williamson 450
3B - Traynor 1863, Rosen 932, Williamson 716, Concepcion 120
LF - Brock 2161, EHoward 227, Cedeno 139, DMurphy 101
CF - Puckett 1432, Cedeno 1457, DMurphy 1041, Brock 115
RF - Strawberry 1308, DMurphy 749, Puckett 276, Brock 242, Cedeno 142
OF - Van Haltren 1833 somewhere


I don't picture a lot of injuries in this "Iowa" setting, but Murphy has 85 G at C in a pinch - and there as others with G at SS too

Van Haltren with 93 G at P also can mop up for that 10-man staff as needed with his 96 ERA+

   28. kcgard2 Posted: January 08, 2021 at 10:37 PM (#5998517)
Ardo: yeah, yest tended to be way out there. His ballots were sometimes so eccentric he would get called out for logical consistency, but I think people just eventually got so used to it they let it be. The HOM has had a long, strange, interesting history.
   29. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 08, 2021 at 11:12 PM (#5998530)
 16. Patrick W Posted: January 08, 2021 at 01:23 PM (#5998342)
HOM Election Database is updated & saved to Google Docs here:

HoM Elections - 2021


A treasure trove of info, thank you for sharing.

I expanded on your top % score never elected from a 40% top 15 ever to 30% and a top 58:

Win Shares 19th century centerfield darlings and a 300 game winner:
George Van Haltren 13x, Hugh Duffy 11x, Jimmy Ryan 11x, Mickey Welch 5x.

Guys who did well in early voting:
(N)Ed Williamson 2x, Mike Tiernan 1x, Tommy Leach 1x

Players achieving front log status since voting went annual, current forms of WAR were available:
Sammy Sosa 6x, Lance Berkman 2x, and 1x - Phil Rizzuto, Ben Taylor, Wally Schang, Buddy Bell, Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu

A record 6 players at > 30% in 2021, are these 6 inevitable HOMers, or will some go the way of the 1890s trio?

Rk Year Score Player
01 1913 51.1% H.Duffy
02 1908 48.7% H.Duffy
03 1931 48.3% G.VanHaltren
04 1898 47.1% E.Williamson
05 1914 44.7% H.Duffy
06 1907 44.4% H.Duffy
07 1930 43.6% G.VanHaltren
08 1932 43.5% G.VanHaltren
09 1912 43.1% H.Duffy
10 2014 42.6% S.Sosa
11 1910 42.3% H.Duffy
12 1910 41.3% J.Ryan
13 2017 40.9% S.Sosa
14 2015 40.6% S.Sosa
15 1909 40.4% J.Ryan
16 1911 39.7% H.Duffy
17 1913 38.8% J.Ryan
18 1929 38.7% G.VanHaltren
19 2021 38.1% B.Abreu
20 2012 37.8% P.Rizzuto
21 2013 37.7% S.Sosa
22 1912 37.5% J.Ryan
23 1909 37.5% H.Duffy
24 1915 36.5% H.Duffy
25 1930 36.2% J.Ryan
26 1933 36.0% G.VanHaltren
27 1909 35.4% M.Tiernan
28 2021 35.3% S.Sosa
29 1931 35.1% J.Ryan
30 1914 34.8% J.Ryan
31 1942 34.3% G.VanHaltren
32 1911 33.9% J.Ryan
33 1910 33.8% J.Ryan
34 1899 33.6% E.Williamson
35 1931 33.6% H.Duffy
36 2016 33.3% S.Sosa
37 1942 33.3% T.Leach
38 1928 33.3% G.VanHaltren
39 2021 33.2% A.Pettitte
40 1915 33.0% J.Ryan
41 1913 32.6% G.VanHaltren
42 1932 32.5% H.Duffy
43 1931 32.0% M.Welch
44 1968 31.6% G.VanHaltren
45 2021 31.4% B.Bell
46 2021 31.4% L.Berkman
47 1930 31.4% M.Welch
48 1929 31.3% J.Ryan
49 1929 31.3% M.Welch
50 1932 31.0% M.Welch
51 2021 30.8% W.Schang
52 1909 30.6% G.VanHaltren
53 1939 30.5% G.VanHaltren
54 2019 30.2% B.Taylor
55 1938 30.2% M.Welch
56 1927 30.1% G.VanHaltren
57 1926 30.1% G.VanHaltren
58 2020 30.0% L.Berkman

Most unfortunate vote, 1997, got Dwight Evans right as a newbie, but settled on Nellie Fox and Edd Roush, Dan Rosenheck WAR had been around for a couple of months, I don't think Sean Smith WAR was out yet, I think the only year with 2 inductees I have outside of a grey area HOF level.
   30. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 08, 2021 at 11:23 PM (#5998536)
KCG2, i can’t tell you how delighted i am to see Consensus Scores return! Thank you. As someone who over time has tended to lean away from the average consensus score, I’m always interested to see how divergent my thinking is each year.

Ardo, thanks for the Wright stuff. He is on the right side of my in/out line, the only question is whether the backlog ahead of him is too deep. I can, however, safely predict that he will slot in behind Bell who outstrips him at the hot corner.
   31. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2021 at 09:53 AM (#5998567)
2 Posted: January 08, 2021 at 04:37 PM (#5998412)
I can write plaques. Will have them updated along with the HOM plaque room site sometime this weekend.


Thank you!
   32. kcgard2 Posted: January 09, 2021 at 10:20 AM (#5998572)
I've updated the plaque room at the HOM site.

Link

If any voters would like to contribute their pHOM, they can email me (krisgardner -at- twc -dot- com). I request that submissions be like the following:

Player (year of induction)
In: Wally Schang (1961), Ron Cey (1998), Bobby Bonds (2017)
Out: Hardy Richardson (1905), Charley Jones (1930), Kenny Lofton (2021)

I'd be interested to see the most common ins and outs for voters' pHOMs, if there are really any patterns.
   33. Qufini Posted: January 09, 2021 at 10:39 AM (#5998577)
Pedroia is still under contract and Santana is in the minors, so maybe they play in 2021.
Pedroia is essentially under contract in that insurance pays his salary if he's considered unable to play due to injury. If he officially retires, his salary is forfeit. I don't expect to see him in a major league line-up again- though he's the kind of guy who could show up in a major league uniform as a coach/manager someday.
   34. yest Posted: January 10, 2021 at 01:43 AM (#5998779)

The return of consensus scores! Thank you kcgard! I remember the good ol' days when karlmagnus and yest could be counted on to have the two highest scores :)


As my name was mentioned, if I was voting today and I would have won a few more battles from 90-100 years ago I would probably not be as much of an outlier today.

I would be shocked if Santana and Kent, would not be in my phom and lofton probably would be a contender (I see him as a borderline hofer and since we increased the slots allowed if I kept up with a phom I see him as a possibility of making it.

Disappointed that Mickey Welch, Hugh Duffy And pie traynor are still are not in. They would kill my score as would Puckett whose defense is way underrated.

At least I won the George sisler fight.


Towards the end I was pretty close to the group on ranking current players the problem was I had some people I saw as major omissions. In off year elections my score usually went up.

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