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Monday, December 13, 2021

2022 Hall of Merit Ballot

Welcome to the 2022 Hall of Merit Ballot thread. Balloting is open from now (December 13) through January 6, 2022 at 5 p.m. EST.

As a reminder:
“This has been an issue in the past, so I’ll repeat it now for clarification . . . the posting of the ballot to the discussion thread for new voters is not just a formality. With the posting of the ballot you are expected to post a summary of what you take into account - basically, how did you come up with this list? This does not mean that you need to have invented the Holy Grail of uber-stats. You don’t need a numerical rating down to the hundredth decimal point.

You do need to treat all eras of baseball history fairly. You do need to stick to what happened on the field (or your best estimate of what would have happened if wars and strikes and such hadn’t gotten in the way). You may be challenged and ask to defend your position, if someone notices internal inconsistencies, flaws in your logic, etc.. This is all a part of the learning process.
It isn’t an easy thing to submit a ballot, but that’s by design. Not because we don’t want to grow our numbers (though we’ve done just fine there, started with 29 voters in 1898, and passed 50 eventually), not because we want to shut out other voices. It’s because we want informed voters making informed decisions on the entire electorate, not just the players they remember.”
So if you are up for this, we’d love to have you! Even if you aren’t up to voting, we’d still appreciate your thoughts in the discussion. Some of our greatest contributors haven’t or have only rarely voted.

Chris Fluit posted this at some point, also relevant and well said.
“First of all, yes, we welcome new voters. If you have never voted in a HoM election before, you are invited to participate in this year’s vote. You’re asked to post a preliminary ballot in this thread and then defend your ballot. That last part sounds rough, but it doesn’t have to be. We don’t expect (or even desire) unanimity. But we do want your ballot to be internally consistent. We also figure that most members om this site will have at least a passing familiarity with sabrmetrics but that’s not written into any by-laws.
Second, new, newer and even some long-time voters may be wondering about the one-year boycott by-law. Basically, the founders of the Hall of Merit didn’t want a Hall of Fame style character clause that would leave some candidates in unofficial and perpetual purgatory. The Hall of Merit is about on-the-field contributions, period. However, the HoM recognizes that voters may sometimes have difficulty voting for players whose conduct was detrimental to the game in some way. The HoM therefore allows for a one-year boycott for first-year candidates.
To date, voters have exercised the one-year boycott for six candidates: Cap Anson, for his role in developing the color line in professional baseball; Shoeless Joe Jackson, for his role in the Black Sox scandal; Pete Rose, for betting on baseball; Mark McGwire, for his confessed use of performance enhancing drugs; and Rafael Palmeiro and Manny Ramirez for failing a test for performance enhancing drugs. In some cases, the boycotts meant that the player was inducted with a lower percentage than would have otherwise occurred. In other cases, the boycotts delayed the candidate’s induction by one year. It should be acknowledged that voters with a strong stance against steroids dropped out of this project after McGwire and Palmeiro were inducted over their objections. That’s why additional PED users and suspected users, like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, were not boycotted.
However, it was their decision to leave and not one forced upon them by other voters. You are welcome to participate in this project even with strong reservations about PED users as long as you abide by our by-laws.
To get specific: Yes, you may boycott someone for failing PED tests in his first year on the ballot if you so choose. And, yes, you may even boycott a player for being a suspected PED user (although many observers would draw a line between those two categories), in his first year. However, you must indicate on your ballot that you are doing so. In addition, if such a candidate fails to be elected this year, you may not boycott him in his second year of eligibility. You may not boycott any other holdover candidates. It’s a first-year boycott only.”


Voters should name 15 players, in order. The top 4 finishers will be elected.

Don’t forget to comment on each of last year’s top ten returnees. As a reminder those guys are:
Bobby Abreu, Sammy Sosa, Andy Pettitte, Buddy Bell, Lance Berkman, Wally Schang, Bobby Bonds, Sal Bando, Vic Willis, Ben Taylor

Newly eligible players
Alex Rodriguez
David Ortiz
David Wright
Mark Teixeira
Jimmy Rollins
Carl Crawford
Coco Crisp
Justin Morneau
Marlon Byrd
Prince Fielder
A.J. Pierzynski
Michael Bourn
Juan Uribe
Alexei Ramirez

Jake Peavy
Joe Nathan
Jonathan Papelbon
Tim Lincecum
John Danks

DL from MN Posted: December 13, 2021 at 10:50 AM | 43 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: December 13, 2021 at 11:31 AM (#6057173)
2022 Ballot

You will see some particular areas where I am going to differ from group consensus - I think pitchers are quite under-represented in the Hall of Merit. I give war credit and also credit for minor league seasons played at a level that indicates the player would have been above average in the major leagues. I think the consensus right now is to NOT give war credit which is a shame. I use Dan R's standard deviation adjusted WAR (when available) because he convinced me that runs/win is not a constant 10 across all of baseball history. I like the positional average and positional replacement value calculations in his spreadsheet as well. I also believe a season is a season whether 60 games or 162 and adjust shortened seasons to a 162 game baseline. I think we have enough pre-1890 players and generally identified the correct ones.

I look at two main things - value above replacement and value above average. I'm not as interested in a (theoretical) 65 WAR player with 0 WAA as I am with a 55 WAR 25 WAA player. Therefore I zero out seasons at the beginning and end of a player's career where WAA + WAR < 0. I don't care about peak - consecutive or non-consecutive - and it doesn't really enter into my calculations.

I haven't ever boycotted due to steroid usage. I have penalized players who gambled by applying the lifetime ban for the offense to immediately after the time when it occurred.

1) Alex Rodriguez - This is a pretty easy choice. Similar career value to Joe Morgan and Pop Lloyd but behind Lajoie, Collins, Hornsby and far behind Honus Wagner. PHoM 2022

2) Tommy Bridges - I give war credit for two seasons at the level he was pitching 1941-1945. That gives him roughly 60 WAR and 30 WAA. PHoM 1958.

3) Mark Buehrle - My biases explained above are going to like a guy like this. FIP WAR is going to miss his plus defensive contributions. PHoM 2021.

4) Bob Johnson - Giving him 1.5 seasons of credit for minor league performance as he was performing at a level above MLB average. I've been voting for Bob Johnson every single year I have participated in
the project. PHoM 1986.

5) Phil Rizzuto - gets 3 full seasons of WWII credit at the level of his average performance from the surrounding 9 seasons. That doesn't give him any extra credit for playing 1946 with malaria. Fantastic fielder with just enough bat. PHoM 1967

6) Urban Shocker - giving him 1/2 season credit for WWI. Good bat for a pitcher helped him in my recalculations. PHoM 1968.

7) Bert Campaneris - If you look at wins above positional average instead of BBREF wins above average you will like 1970s SS more than 1970s 3B. Good fielder and great baserunner - his bat is basically average but his baserunning makes his offensive contribution a positive. PHoM 1991.

8) Kevin Appier - Another pitcher with solid performance above average. PHoM 2009

9) Dave Bancroft - another mostly glove SS with extra credit (50% for 1919). PHoM 1976

10) Tommy John - a compiler with only a few top seasons but does well with STDEV adjustments, postseason bonus. PHoM 1995

11) Andy Pettitte - strong postseason stats give him nearly an extra season of top performance. PHoM 2021

12) Ben Taylor - moves down after latest MLE adjustments. He's Rafael Palmeiro of the deadball era. Also compares well to Keith Hernandez. Better than Mule Suttles. The last obvious Negro League candidate. PHoM 1973.

13) Roy Oswalt - contemporary of Johan Santana who was a similar high peak, short career pitcher. PHoM 2019

14) Brian Giles - Perhaps the modern day version of Bob Johnson - he was an average contributor right away and provided a ton of value from 2000-2005. Zero out his last season and he's 30WAA. Has an argument for minor league credit but I'm not giving it to him on this placement. PHoM 2020.

15) Bucky Walters - overlooked pitcher from WWII era. Very good hitter for a pitcher which helped him in my re-evaluation. PHoM 1972

16) Norm Cash - haven't had him appear near my ballot in a while now. Terrific fielding 1B with a plus bat and one monster season. PHoM 1997
17) Tim Hudson - PHoM 2021
18) Bus Clarkson - Needs credit for NGL, Mexican League and time missed due to the war as well as minor league credit for integration quotas. He's likely an average fielding 3B or below average at SS but the bat is a plus at either position. PHoM 1967
19) Frank Tanana
20) Bobby Abreu - PHoM 2020
21) Johnny Pesky - 3 seasons WWII credit. PHoM 2005
22) Gavy Cravath - 4 seasons minor league credit. PHoM 1927
23) Jorge Posada - PHoM 2022 - even with the glovework lacking there is too much to like. Postseason bonus helps.
24) Wally Schang - PHoM 1987
25) Sammy Sosa - PHoM 2022 - I like to induct PHoM to match the group if possible. Frank Tanana just showed up this season this high in my consideration set. I'll give him another year to think about it.
26) Don Newcombe - gets 2-1/2 years of war credit for serving 1952-54. Gets 1/2 year of minor league credit for being held back due to integration quotas. Good bat. PHoM 2004.
27) Dave Concepcion
Kenny Lofton
28) Tommy Leach - PHoM 2009
29) Newt Allen
30) Lazaro Salazar

After looking over the new MLEs for Dobie Moore he makes my PHoM in 2022 in the second slot. Better glove than I had been giving credit for before.

40) David Ortiz - Unlikely to ever make my PHoM with 17 players ahead of him in line including Ducky Medwick
64) Bobby Bonds
71) Buddy Bell - not much value above 3B positional average
73) David Wright
77) Lance Berkman - not quite as good as Chuck Klein
93) Vic Willis - adjusted for standard deviations he's 46 PWAR and 21 WAA. Terrible hitter.
139) Mark Teixeira
143) Sal Bando - Concepcion and Campaneris are preferred for 1970s infielders
145) Jimmy Rollins
   2. bachslunch Posted: December 13, 2021 at 11:47 AM (#6057174)
Disclosures: I'm keeping things simple and what I believe to be consistent. Am assuming that all the deserving Negro Leaguers are already enshrined, an opinion seemingly held by several in the electorate. Players are ranked by position first using BBRef WAR amounts for the AL, NL, and PL as the sole determining factor. After that, I collect the top non-pitcher candidates at each position and order them as I think best, scattering anywhere from one to three pitchers into each group. The result is a 15 player ballot and 27 ranked off-ballot players, encompassing 10 pitchers and 4 players from other positions. While these are not popular approaches:

-I do not credit or debit for war, injury, illness, postseason play, or minor league service.
-I treat pitchers from all periods equally, but only consider the NL, AL, and PL legitimate. When considering 19th and early 20th century pitchers, I remove NA, AA, UA, and FL totals, with final numbers being approximate.
-I do not give relievers special treatment.

Will boycott 1st year candidates who bet on games, threw games, impeded players of color, were caught using PEDs post-2005 (Manny, ARod), and likely used pre-2005 if it looks like they'll get an immediate free pass by BBWAA HoF voters (IRod, Ortiz, Pettitte).

1. Wally Schang. Best WAR for available Cs.
2. Buddy Bell. Best WAR at 3B. Have decided to trust the metric for him.
3. Jim McCormick. Best WAR for available starters not in by a mile, even when removing all his UA-earned credit. Short career, but played in NL except for one UA season.
4. Bobby Abreu. Best WAR for available RFs.
5. Bob Johnson. Best WAR for available LFs.
6. Willie Davis. Best WAR for available CFs.
7. John Olerud. Best WAR for available 1B.
8. Tony Phillips. Best WAR for available 2B.
9. Luis Aparicio. Best WAR for available SS.
10. Vic Willis. Good pitcher WAR, best after McCormick.
11. Sammy Sosa. Second best WAR at RF.
12. Sal Bando. Second best WAR at 3B.
13. Joe Tinker. Second best WAR at SS.
14. Gene Tenace. Second best WAR at C.
15. Jose Cruz. Second best WAR at LF.

16-42. Mickey Welch, Tommy John, Tony Perez, Chuck Knoblauch, Johnny Damon, Andy Pettitte, Bobby Bonds, Chet Lemon, Thurman Munson, Mark Buerhle, Lance Berkman, Bert Campaneris, Robin Ventura, Tony Lazzeri, Fred McGriff, Eddie Cicotte, Urban Shocker, Sam Rice, Norm Cash, Dave Bancroft, Chuck Finley, Ron Cey, Jorge Posada, Tim Hudson, Buddy Myer, Vada Pinson, Juan Gonzalez.

1B. Olerud, Perez, McGriff, Cash, Teixeira, Giambi
2B. Phillips, Knoblauch, Lazzeri, Myer, Evers, Childs
SS. Aparicio, Tinker, Campaneris, Bancroft, Fregosi, Rollins
3B. Bell, Bando, Ventura, Cey, Harrah, Elliott
LF. B. Johnson, J. Cruz, Berkman, J. Gonzalez, Downing, Veach
CF. W. Davis, Damon, Lemon, Pinson, Cedeno, Puckett
RF. Abreu, Sosa, Bonds, S. Rice, Hooper, J. Clark
C. Schang, Tenace, Munson, Posada, Kendall, D. Porter
P. McCormick, Willis, M. Welch, John, Pettitte, Buehrle, Cicotte, Shocker, Finley, Hudson, Tanana, Whitney, Hershiser, Uhle, J. Powell.

All required disclosure players are on ballot or within top 40 except Ben Taylor; am accepting the idea that there are no viable NeL candidates left. None of the newcomers make my ballot, as I'm boycotting Alex Rodriguez (who would otherwise have been ranked #1) and Ortiz (who would have been a few notches off ballot and otherwise would have ranked second as a 1B).
   3. rwargo Posted: December 13, 2021 at 02:53 PM (#6057211)
Nice backlog clearing year with an elect 4 (3 plus Rodriguez). Next year looks to clear 2 more plus Beltran, then in 2024 it will likely be a triumvirate of newbies in Beltre, Utley, and Mauer. Finally, 2025 is shaping up to clear at least 3-4 more from the backlog. Seeing 8-10 names off this list would be great. Using a combination of WAR, WAR7, JAWS, WAR/162*10, WARShare*10, WAA. Early 19th century pitchers get a discount, catchers get a premium.

1. SS: Alex Rodriguez (551.8) - #2 all time SS. Probably #17 best player ever, and #3 non-1B infielder ever (only behind Hornsby & Wagner) My system has only 15 players ever who have achieved 550+ points, and Rodriguez is one of them. Clear #2 among SS, would be #1 among 3B.

2. C: Thurman Munson (302.6) - #13 all time C. I keep going back and forth on catchers, who are underrepresented in the HOM. Munson came out the clear winner in the new system.

3. 3B: Sal Bando (295.0) - #16 all time 3B. Keeps flipflopping with Bell, new system puts him slightly ahead. Similar value to Graig Nettles.

4. 3B: Buddy Bell (290.3) - #18 all time 3B. I think we need more 3B in the HOM. Bell and Bando should both go in.

5. C: Gene Tenace (297.1) #17 all time C, but of course not 100% C. Squarely in electability portion of catchers list.

6. SP: Vic Willis (284.7) - #53 all time SP. Best available pitcher who played significantly after the 19th century. in the Stan Coveleski, Don Drysdale mold.

7. SP: Jim McCormick (379.1) - #51 all time SP. Best 19th century pitcher, on my very first ballot long ago. His numbers have always compared favorably to electee and contemporary Radbourn.

8. RF: Bobby Bonds (278.5) - #19 all time RF. Similar value to electees Flick and Guerrero.

9. RF: Sammy Sosa (275.6) - #25 all time RF. In the range of electable remaining outfielders.

10. SP: Urban Shocker (271.6) - #62 all time SP. Just below Drysdale, higher value than similar shaped Mordecai Brown.

11. RF: Bobby Abreu (266.6) - #27 all time RF. Just below Sosa and Bonds, all three are penciling as better than Winfield, Sheffield under the new system.

12. 3B: David Wright (266.2) - #22 all time 3B. I was surprised. Similar value to McGraw, Hack, Collins, and contemporaries Longoria, Donaldson.

13. 1B: Ben Taylor (132.3) - #25 all time 1B. I was going to put Olerud here who compares favorably to Clark, Killebrew, but realized that Taylor was probably better. I believe Taylor has similar value to long-career, relatively low-peak Hernandez, Palmeiro, Murray, all of whom are above the Olerud/Killebrew/Clark level.

14. SP: Tommy Bond (325.4) - #63 all time SP. His value is slightly better than electee Bob Caruthers. I think we missed a couple of 19th century pitchers.

15. C: Wally Schang (259.0) - #24 all time C. Would be at the bottom of catchers, but gets a boost because he was head and shoulders above the position in the era. Only Santop was better between 1915-1925.

Required Comments

SP: Andy Pettitte (223.3) - #109 all time SP. Pencils as having as much value as Ron Guidry, but a more apt comparison would be Mark Langston or Mark Buehrle. Well below my threshhold, but I understand the appeal.
LF: Lance Berkman (255.3) - #13 all time LF. Same value as Bob Johnson, who I wouldn't mind putting in, but the RF all are a bit higher than Johnson/Berkman. As the backlog clears, he will be on the ballot again.


1B: David Ortiz (233.3) - #34 all time 1B. Just not enough for a full time DH. Similar value to Beckley in the system, but below a group consisting of Olerud, Chance, Giambi, Camilli, Teixeira, Cash.
1B: Mark Teixeira (244.1) - #31 all time 1B. Solid player, not enough at the end to crack the list. Behind Olerud, Chance, Giambi, Camilli in my system.
RP: Joe Nathan (116.2) - #15 all time RP. We may not have many future relievers in the HOM. Compares fine with Bruce Sutter and Lee Smith, who don't get many votes from us.
   4. Jaack Posted: December 13, 2021 at 11:52 PM (#6057289)
Excited for this election - one obvious number one candidate, and then a ton of choices for the next three electees.

I would describe my system as prime oriented, although I like to see a bit of everything. I probably lean more strongly toward FIP than any other voter as well, and I tend to be rather generous with extra credit when it is justified.

1. Alex Rodriguez - One of the top 25-30 players in baseball history, either the second best shortstop or third baseman in history. I’m probably in a very small minority for actually kind of liking him – he’s got to be the least popular player of his caliber in baseball history.
2. Lance Berkman - Still the best frontlog player available. Of all the slugging corner outfield types in the 90s and 00s, I think Berkman has the most seasons as a top 5-10 player in the league. More impressive peak than Abreu, better in contextual stats than Sosa, and nice postseason boost as well.
3. Tommy John - The other clearly qualified player left. I get why he’s controversial, but I just can’t look past the sheer volume of quality pitching.
4. Babe Adams - Comparable to HoMers Stan Coveleski and Mordecai Brown. Deserves credit for his year and a half rehab stint in the minors where he dominated.
5. Andy Pettitte - Bit of a jump for me this year – I’m pretty convinced he belongs now. Only one really great year in 1997, but a ton of good to great years. Not too many other guys who have both available.
6. Don Newcombe - He’s got a nice chunk of prime in his MLB career, but with some war credit and segregation credit, his case starts to fill out nicely. The bat is key – it turns his good years into very good years.
7. Jim Sundberg - There’s some projection for the unknowns of catcher defense here, but Sundberg is a standout by pretty much every method used for his era. And while he wasn’t a good hitter per se, he wasn’t a Bob Boone/Tony Pena type.
8. Mickey Lolich - Perennial favorite of mine. He struck a lot of guys out and pitched a ton every season. Perhaps a bit overrated by FIP, but not by a whole lot. Fits the model of having a real peak (1971-72) and a decent length career that I tend to go for.
9. Bob Johnson - Moves down a bit with quality of opposition adjustments, but he still is a strong candidate. The Lance Berkman of his era.
10. Roy Oswalt - Johan Santana is in, so Oswalt should be next up in the peakish aughts pitcher club. I get why people preferred Santana, but there really isn’t much of a margin between these two.
11. David Wright - Very short career, but the level of performance is there. Great all around offensive player, who was good enough defensively where you weren’t worrying about him much. Another 3-4 WAR season would make him a slam dunk.
12. Ron Guidry - Big jump for Guidry here. His 1978 season does a lot of the work, but I have 1977, 1979, and 1985 as pretty great years too, plus another half dozen average to above average ones. A more stable Dwight Gooden.
13. Orel Hershiser - Definitely not someone I expected to vote for this cycle, but pretty much all my revisions looked favorably on him. More career value than Guidry in exchange for a less impressive (although still very good) top line season. His performance in the 1988 postseason bumps him onto the ballot – it makes that season look just enough better.
14. Bert Campaneris - Dagoberto drops just a bit for me this year – revisions shuffle him around a bit, but the evaluation is the same – best shortstop of his era by a pretty large margin.
15. Bobby Bonds - Similar career arc to Lance Berkman, although he trades some hitting for better base running and defense. Guys with 8-12 really nice seasons seem to do best in my system, regardless of their top level performance.
16. Tim Hudson
17. Kiki Cuyler
18. Robin Ventura
19. Dwight Gooden
20. Tommy Leach
21. David Ortiz - I have him as about the midpoint between Jim Thome and Fred McGriff among no defense sluggers. Postseason credit and situational performance are both boons that make him a viable candidate for me.
22. Burleigh Grimes
23. Willie Davis
24. George Uhle
25. Joe Tinker

Required Disclosures
Berkman, Pettitte, and Bonds are on ballot

37. Buddy Bell - Definitely the best of the 60s/70s 3B crowd, although I’d have liked to see a little more of an actual peak. A small discount for what I believe to be overinflated positional bonus make a lot of those 3-3.5 WAR seasons early in his career look pretty average. I haven’t actually worked out my PhoM, but I imagine he’s pretty close to the borderline there.
44. Wally Schang - I never feel confident about Schang either way. In order to get him into serious consideration, he needs a bump for being the best catcher of his era. Which is tough because Louis Santop was there, and there’s overlap with Roger Bresnahan and Gabby Hartnett too.
52. Sammy Sosa - Big peak, but less than the sum of his parts I think. Giambi has a similarish career for me.
62. Bobby Abreu - Had a really nice seven year run 1998-2004, but his peak was pretty low, and while he was solid outside of that stretch, it’s not enough career to be a pure career candidate for me. He looks like a lesser Eddie Murray to me, and I think Murray is a bottom quartile HoMer to begin with.
63. Sal Bando - He doesn’t rank too highly for me – there are eight eligible third basemen I’d prefer to elect at this point. And it’s not just my adjustments for the 60s/70s third basemen – he’s behind Bell, Harrah, and Cey for me in that group.
70. Vic Willis - He had a few big years there, but I’m less generous towards deadball peaks than most voters. Plus his awful bat knocks him down a peg as well.
77. Ben Taylor - He was probably the best first baseman of the 1910s, which is something I value, but his competition was… Ed Konetchy. His low and slow career arc is reminiscent of Jake Beckley, but I wouldn’t be a Beckley voter if he was still unelected.

Other newbies:
196. Jake Peavy - Great competitor, but mostly just a good pitcher. Jon Matlack-esque. Best Padres’ starting pitcher ever, but I think Hoffman was better overall.
224. Joe Nathan - He’s the fourth-best in the category of single inning relievers, behind Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner, but it’s a distant fourth. Relative to the electorate as a whole I like relief pitchers, and he’s well beyond serious consideration.
249. Mark Teixeira - Another guy I enjoyed a lot. In what is effectively a three way tie at first base with Carlos Delgado and Ed Konetchy.
279. Jimmy Rollins - The single season PA record isn’t the sexiest record to hold, but it’s pretty fun. Too bad showing up was the only skill Rollins had where he was substantially above average.
282. Jonathan Papelbon - Sucked.
   5. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 14, 2021 at 06:21 PM (#6057388)
In 2022, I'm onto a fairly different system. It's still grounded in all the same goodies as before (adjustments to BBREF WAR for everything under the sun). However, this year, I've begun adjusting pre 1964 seasons for segregation or incomplete integration. Specifically, prior to 1947, all players get an adjustment to their WAA of -10 RAA per (PA + pitching outs). Then as integration gets underway, that figure decreases until 1964 when I believe (after studying it) that integration was complete enough that we needn't dock players anymore. That means my thinking now leans more heavily toward post-expansion players.

I still rely closely on my CHEWS+ sifting tool (a JAWS-like system indexed against 100). But I've added something to the mix. I don't have a name for this yet, though I will, but it's a way of taking certain Keltner questions, modifying them slightly to be measurable via analytics, and then creating a score that's based on a particular kind of context. Not the kind that hampers our understanding (like parks or the context for RBI) but rather the context of how players stacked up against their contemporaries and then against all of history. You might think of it as quantifying "feel" a good, objective way. So for this purpose I'll these "Case points." The typical HOM player scores 35 points or more, and any score above 20 merits a look-see. Anyway, I'm now simply adding that score to CHEWS+ to get a final ballot score. What you see below reflects that. Here goes.

1. Alex Rodriguez (184 CHEWS+, 84 Case, 269 total): Easily the best player on the ballot or damn near any ballot.
2. Buddy Bell (128 CHEWS+, 34 Case, 162 total): Top returning player, and no, I don't care about the zillion 3Bs from the 1970s because there were no SS worth a damn.
3. Heavy Johnson (120 CHeWS+, 42 Case, 162 total): Unheralded dominator of the 1920s Negro Leagues. He could certainly place lower given that there's a fair amount of data missing for his career.
4. Sammy Sosa (117 CHEWS+, 39 Case, 156 total): It's not all peak. But it's mostly peak. And he's a surprisingly good glove.
5. Thurman Munson (116 CHeWS+, 37 Case, 152 total): Best catcher available. His death bothers me but the shortness of his career doesn't. Despite it, he manages to climb my rankings so that he's comfortably above the line and among the third third of HOM catchers.
6. Roy White (119 CHEWS+, 30 Case, 149 total): Some folks will view my high placement of White as over reliance on Michael Humphreys' DRA. And maybe they're right? But the fact that he does very nicely in the Case score suggests that he's got more under the hood than just one guy's opinion on defense.
7. Kevin Appier (112 CHEWS+, 32 Case, 144 total): Modern pitchers are somewhat underrated by the HOF and by us. He's one I think we've whiffed on. He is far above my line that he's well away from borderline territory and he had some serious monster seasons leading to a wonderful peak/prime.
8. Bobby Bonds (111 CHEWS+, 31 Case, 142 total): Time for the first father-son HOM combination!
9. Tony Phillips (118 CHEWS+, 23 Case, 142 total): Phillips was indeed an excellent defensive player and at worst decent at every position but catcher. But you know what, there's uncalculated value out there for this specific player. Reason being that unlike, say, Killebrew or Rose or Molitor, he didn't tend to play a single position a year but played a bunch over the years. He played a bunch of positions every year, and he switch hit. Which means that Sparky Anderson could get the platoon advantage somewhere in his lineup in any game and sometimes at any moment in the game. I suspect this is worth something like 3-5 additional wins over his career.
10. Jose Cruz (113 CHEWS+, 25 Case, 138 total): Late blooming, excellent defender, under the radar for most of the public. Once I implemented the segregation adjustment, LF, more than any position, was restructured, propelling Cruz and White up the rankings, Sheckard, Veach, Magee, and others down the rankings, and several modern LFs up to fill the void created (Belle, Foster, L Gonzalez, none of who are on this ballot).
11. David Wright (113 CHEWS+, 24 Case, 137 total): Thanks to injury his career is shaped more like Munson's or Bonds'. Nonetheless, Wright was a routine All-Star and the best NL third baseman post-Rolen.
12. Bobby Abreu (109 CHEWS+, 28 Case, 137 total): Like White/Cruz, Abreu's ranking improves as some segregation-era RFs lose ground, propelling him to an elect-me slot on my ballot. Brian Giles is not on my ballot, but closely follows in Aubreu's slipstream for the same reasons.
13. Andy Pettitte (110 CHEWS+, 26 Case, 136 total): A solid, unspectacular hurler who has the same kind of career as Jeff Kent---three big years and a lot of good not great shoulder seasons.
14. Sal Bando (111 CHeWS+, 22 Case, 133 total): I am skipping over John Olerud whom the system says should be my #14, and I'm replacing him with Bando and the next guy. This is a recognition that HOM-level 3Bs are harder to come by than 1Bs.
15. Chuck Finley (109 CHEWS+, 22 Case, 132 total): Another guy with a career like Pettitte's and Kent's where the total seems to exceed the parts.

16. Olerud
17. Tim Hudson
18. Hurley McNair
19. Gene Tenace
20. Brian Giles

Required Disclosures
David Ortiz: Below my in/out line at 1B, which is where I put him for comparison purposes. Edgar is still the better DH.
Lance Berkman: Lands about 2-3 spots below #15.
Wally Schang: Has dropped below my in/out line, though barely, however, a great argument could be made for him on the basis of how much he stood out in context.
Ben Taylor: The segregation adjustment (which must be applied to players of all colors), drops him far enough below my in/out line that he's not a serious threat for a ballot spot.
Vic Willis: Ditto.
   6. kcgard2 Posted: December 14, 2021 at 09:13 PM (#6057397)
My "uberstat" is a heavily modified version of weighted WAR invented by Adam Darowski. I made a whole lot of updates and upgrades to it after last election. I detailed most of that in the discussion thread. As you'll see from my ballot, I like both peak and career candidates, I don't have a very strong preference for how a player accumulates value, as long as at the end of the day he has that value. My version of weighted WAR includes adjustments for era representation, value per playing time unit, and adjustments for WAA for very long or short careers, plus war/NgL credit and in rare cases minor league credit where deserving.

With all the adjustments I made, there's a new scale for the stat from previous years. Roughly, values work out as follows:
600 = top 10 player all time, example player: Tris Speaker
400 = top 25 player all time (~top 10% of HOM), example player: Joe Morgan
300 = top 70 player all time (~top 25% of HOM), example player: Fergie Jenkins
230 = top 140 player all time (~median HOMer), example player: Don Sutton
200 = top 200 player all time, comfortable HOMer, but not guaranteed to get inducted. Example player: Vlad Guerrero
180 = top 250 player all time (~top 75% HOMer). This is the line where opinions start to diverge, players in this range are worthy selections but not slam dunk. Example player: Earl Averill
160 = top 300 player all time, these guys have backers and aren't necessarily bad selections, but the backlog is full of guys this good or better. Example player: Bid McPhee
140 = top 350 player all time, these guys need to have great timing, narrative, or both. Weak selections but there are a few in the HOM, usually from ancient times. Less than 140 is not a serious HOM candidate.

Generally, the players we debate and disagree on are guys in the 170-210 range. There's scattered or idiosyncratic support for players below 150 but they won't be inducted.

1. Alex Rodríguez (499 wWAR): #16 player all time. Obvious inner circle performance.
2. Sal Bando (219 wWAR): Bando fits very comfortably in the HOM, almost identical in value to Boyer from my perspective.
3. Buddy Bell (217 wWAR): different shape but same conclusion. A comfortable HOM talent IMO.
4. Bobby Abreu (210 wWAR): a solid all around contributor; because he didn't do anything breathtaking on the field maybe he didn't *feel* as much like a HOM talent but the production is there.
5. Tommy John (207 wWAR): I'm a big fan of Tommy John and think his induction is overdue. 10% better than league in ERA and FIP in 4700 innings. Go look at the pitcher you like and figure out how well he'd have to pitch for how much longer than he did to match up to that production, and then tell me John doesn't belong.
6. Bobby Bonds (205 wWAR): sometimes I'm surprised he wasn't inducted a number of times in backlog years before now. A little peakier but shorter career than Abreu.
7. Andy Pettitte (200 wWAR): For a while I kind of resisted the idea that Pettitte belongs in these ranks, but the numbers just kept telling me that he does. ERA 14% better than league and FIP 17% better.
8. Lance Berkman (200 wWAR): his peak was really strong, career slightly shortish is the drawback.
9. Sammy Sosa (197 wWAR): People have strong feelings about Sosa (understandably I think), but I believe if you put those aside you'll find he belongs on the ballot, most likely.
10. Roy Oswalt (196 wWAR): As I've said several times, Oswalt is very, very nearly Johan Santana. If you voted Johan, how can you ignore Oswalt? ERA and FIP fantastic 21% and 22% better than league.
11. Robin Ventura (191 wWAR): It seems like Ventura has been between 16 and 20 every year I've been voting, well now he jumps on ballot. Good combination of defense, offense, positional value.
12. Brian Giles (191 wWAR): Giles has been mentioned on other ballots in the past, and I just felt like there's no way he should be ranked that high. Never felt like a future...anything. But check for yourself, there's something here.
13. Kevin Appier (189 wWAR): One of the saddest effects of some of my changes was that Appier lost several spots in my rankings. ERA 17%, FIP 14% better than league. Appier is qualified, need some more to jump on the bandwagon!
14. Bob Johnson (187 wWAR): Another bit of a faller after the updates, but still on my ballot, as he has been every year I've voted.
15. Chuck Finley (186 wWAR): Never voted for Finley before, but he's always been near or moderately near ballot. The updates were kind. ERA and FIP 13% and 12% better than league; in 3200 IP that's consideration worthy.

16. Ron Cey: I've voted for in the past, in pHOM, a worthy HOM player but admittedly perhaps borderline-ish. Arguments for minor league credit would make him a comfortable selection if you support them.
17. John Olerud: along with Ventura, a guy perpetually in the 16-20 range. I think he'd be a worthy addition, but 1B has a higher bar than some other positions. pHOM.
18. Chet Lemon: he doesn't get talked about enough. Best available CF if you ask me. pHOM.
19. David Wright: was initially on ballot before updates. Strong newcomer who may get in someday despite the injury shortened career.
20. Heavy Johnson: Dr. Chaleeko's MLEs are very, very bullish.
21. Mickey Lolich: discussed Lolich in more depth in the discussion thread. Interesting candidate that I'm a bit conflicted about.
22. Noodles Hahn: if I incorporate segregation adjustments next year he will fall pretty hard, but has a peak candidacy in the mold of numerous others.
23. Cliff Lee: another peak case, unfortunately Lee didn't hit his stride in MLB until a late age so I don't see him getting inducted despite the strong peak.
24. Jerry Koosman: if you want evidence that my system is fine with either peak or career, look at the rankings. Guys at both extremes and all in between scattered throughout.
25. Mark Buehrle: I would love to vote for Buehrle, a personal favorite. There's a chance he could reach the ballot someday. Somebody find some hidden value and make it compelling, please!

Required disclosures and others:
30. Joe Tinker: fell super hard from the updates. Tinker was a mainstay at the back of my ballots in previous elections. I support his candidacy but simply view others ahead in line now.
45. Eddie Cicotte: Used to be mid-to-back of ballot, also fell hard with updates. Still support his candidacy as well but it won't matter since too many blacklist him. pHOM
58. Mark Teixeira: very nice career, can't see him gaining much if any traction though.
65. Vic Willis: the updates hit Willis hard, he was previously in the 20s for me. I understand the appeal, but below the surface I think the case shows cracks.
68. David Ortiz: a much better HOF case than HOM case (if that makes sense), what with all his clutchiness, affability, and narrative. Don't have a way to incorporate those last two into wWAR unfortunately for Ortiz.
74. Ben Taylor: don't agree with Murray comps, I feel closer to a Mark Grace comp which I've detailed several times. Granted that defense was more valuable in Taylor's time, but that's not a comp that gets you considered for HOM.
156. Wally Schang: not on board. No peak, plus notable non-catcher playing time. I have six catchers ahead of Schang. Segregation adjustments would bury him (further), as all six ahead of him are post-integration, too.
   7. cookiedabookie Posted: December 17, 2021 at 06:44 PM (#6057817)
I went into details in the ballot discussion thread. Here's my 2022 HoM ballot:

1. Alex Rodriguez, SS, PHOM 2022: Easy choice for the top of the ballot for me. Second ranked SS in my system, but I'd probably move him ahead of Wagner with a more subjective ranking.

2. Bob Johnson, LF, PHOM 1963: He's always been a favorite of mine in these types of discussions, and with added credit for his PCL years, he jumps up to an elect-me spot on my ballot. Ranked 10th in LF all time.

3. Andy Pettitte, SP, PHOM 2020: Seen as a compiler, but he comes up as the best arm in my rankings due to a combination of longevity and surprising performance on a rate basis. My #42 SP all time

4. Thurman Munson, C, PHOM 1985: My top-ranked catcher, and I agree with others that we're light on catchers. My #13 catcher all time.

5. Tim Hudson,SP, PHOM 2021: He grades out strongly in my system. It's going to take a while, but I believe he is worthy and will be inducted into the HoM. 54th all time among SP, ahead of but similar to Don Drysdale.

6. Babe Adams, SP, PHOM 1965: Another guy bumped up on my ballot with minor league credits. 58th at SP

7. Bobby Bonds, RF, PHOM 1987: My top-ranked eligible right fielder, and deserves to be in the HoM. Great all-around player, #17 in RF.

8. Buddy Bell, 3B, PHOM 1996: Bell is my top-ranked third baseman. He was just really good for a long time, and looks quite underrated to me.

9. Sammy Sosa, RF, PHOM 2022: He's been just off my ballot, but moves onto the ballot this year. Just behind Bonds all time in RF at #18.

10. Joe Tinker, SS, PHOM 1926: My top eligible SS every year I've done this, it took A-Rod to bump him from that spot. #20 all time at SS.

11. Lance Berkman, LF, PHOM 2022: Bumped from the top eligible LF spot by the adjustments to Johnson, but still good enough to make the ballot, #19 all time in LF.

12. Jorge Posada, C, PHOM 2021: Could very easily be back in my top ten next year, 16th all time at catcher.

13. Dwight Gooden, SP, PHOM 2006: The HoM still has some work to do with 1980s and 1990s pitchers, though not near as much as the HoF. Gooden tops the list of these arms for me, 64th for SP.

14. Roy Oswalt, SP, PHOM 2022: 65th all time among SP, part of a group of aughts pitchers the HoM electorate will have to work through over the next 5-10 years.

15. Wally Schang, C, PHOM 1937: Down to my #18 catcher, but still ballot worthy.

Required disclosures:
Bobby Abreu: 18th on my ballot, definitely worthy of induction
Sal Bando: 26th on my ballot, PHOM 1987
Vic Willis: 37th on my ballot, PHOM 1921
Ben Taylor: 120th on my ballot, I'm not sure he's worthy tbh, not with the data we currently have
   8. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 17, 2021 at 08:43 PM (#6057824)
Provided I can get the post in time, I'll take the #8 hole of Cal Ripken, Andre Dawson, and Albert Belle!

I review Baseball-Reference, Baseball Gauge, Fangraphs, Tom Thress, CHEWS, PARC-ds, and advanced defensive metrics for catchers when formulating a ballot, along with MLE credit for Negro Leaguers, World Wars, and when players are ready for the bigs but are left in the minors.

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Thurman Munson
3. Lance Berkman
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Tommy John
6. Heavy Johnson
7. David Ortiz
8. Tim Hudson
9. Bobby Abreu
10. Bobby Veach
11. Bert Campaneris
12. Joe Tinker
13. Jason Giambi
14. Kevin Appier
15. Jim Sundberg

Sammy Sosa - ballot worthy before knocking down for all-time worst clutch values, backlog strong enough to keep him off ballot. Behind the underrated Brian Giles for off-ballot contemporary OF.

Buddy Bell - a no-brainer with Baseball-Reference and Gauge, he was borderline with Dan R's WAR, he's nowhere to be found with Kiko's stat, with the issues Kiko brings up, Bell remains off ballot.

Wally Schang - PHOM, a tough one to leave off, but really 2nd best catcher of his time era and not 1st (Luis Santop), worthy but not an eyesore to see him shy.

Bobby Bonds - PHOM, just shy and would be a fine pick.

Sal Bando - Dan R's study indicate replacement level is SEVERELY overrating Bando and underrating Campaneris, enough to question putting him on ballot.

Vic Willis - PHOM, strong co-hort keeps him off ballot, Joe D's studies were not a fan either / old Baseball Prospectus didn't think he was a great candidate / FIP WAR feels the same.

Ben Taylor - I don't think quite enough defense to be ballot worthy, maybe PHOM level.

Others worthy of consideration:
C - Regino Garcia, Jason Kendall, Tony Pena, Wally Schang, Gene Tenace
1B - Julian Castillo, Frank Chance, Luke Easter, Fred McGriff, John Olerud, Ben Taylor
2B - Lonny Frey, Tony Phillips
3B - Sal Bando, Buddy Bell, Ron Cey, Toby Harrah
SS - Dave Bancroft, Art Fletcher, Johnny Pesky, Phil Rizzuto, Vern Stephens
LF - Jose Cruz, George Foster, Brian Giles, Bob Johnson, Roy White
CF - Cesar Cedeno, Willie Davis, Tommy Leach, Dale Murphy, Bernie Williams
RF - Bobby Bonds, Jack Clark, Kiki Cuyler, Tommy Henrich, Harry Hooper, Sammy Sosa
SP - Babe Adams, Tommy Bond, Tommy Bridges, Charlie Buffinton, Eddie Cicotte,
Leon Day, Dizzy Dean, Dwight Gooden, Ron Guidry, Orel Hershiser, Cliff Lee, Dolf Luque
Jim McCormick, Tony Mullane, Don Newcombe, Roy Oswalt, Frank Tanana, David Wells, Vic Willis
   9. Howie Menckel Posted: December 21, 2021 at 08:00 PM (#6058297)
2022 ballot - our (and my) 125th since we began this version of the journey in 2003 (real time) with an "1898" ballot. Honored to be "The First Voter" (which is right up there with Delaware being "The First State," I suppose).

props to any other remaining "voting Ripkens" as well (I think there are a couple of others left).

I had the 2021 electees - Lofton, Santana, Kent - ranked at 7, 8, and 1 respectively on my own ballot.

Have looked through the 2022 Ballot Discussion, and as always some players move a bit in response to the analysis. Interesting takes on Appier, Hershiser, Phillips, Campaneris, and others.

Annual fine print:

Overall, I think there is a bit too much slavish devotion in some quarters re an ever-increasing number of acronyms, which are intriguing tools but which still may not yet be sufficiently mature (though they continue to improve).

So my fondness (but not blind allegiance, by any means, especially where durability is an issue) for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check even as fielding issues are quite significant for pitchers/team defenses - and especially for hitters, of course. (Ortiz and his 141 OPS+ in 10,000+ PA seems like a better place to start than any system that deducts whatever for being a DH before one even looks at his career. he hit like at least mid-circle HOF/HOMers. we deduct from there, of course - but should that knock him down 50 places?)

I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, and prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long, effective hitting career also works for me. I voted for Joe Jackson on his first try, and Pete Rose, and Mark McGwire. and am voting for A-Rod below - and that pattern will continue re any new steroid/PED/other history's greatest monsters on that front.

1. ALEX RODRIGUEZ - Where to begin? MVP best results of 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 6 - that works as a prime lol. 14 ASG, 2 GG at SS, led AL in Offensive WAR 9 times (!), WAR position players 6 times, WAR 5 times. Durable? 700 PA 6 times. Absolutely carried NYY to its last (ever?) WS title in 2009 with a silly 6 HR, 18 RBI in 51 AB. Led AL in HR 5 times in a span of 7 years, also has 5 R titles. 329 SB at 81 percent clip. What else is there to say?

2. FRED MCGRIFF – Flipflops with Berkman this year. McGriff 134 OPS+ in 10174 PA to Palmeiro’s 132 in 12046 PA to Sheffield's 140 in 10947 PA - and Berkman's 144 in 7814. I really like Crime Dog's 157-166-153-147-166-143-157 peak from 1998-94, all in 600+ PA or equivalent. Underrated.

3. LANCE BERKMAN - Fascinating battle with Crime Dog, and Berkman's peak is a bit peakier. But Dog just has too many more PA to miss out in the head-to-head.

4. JORGE POSADA - Sticking with him up high. My team will outhit your team (ballot!) I know about the defense. I also know about OPS+s of 153-144-139-131-125 and career 121. Either the Yankees would have won 115 games a year (at least) if Posada and Jeter could field, or we may be overrating the cost of Posada's defensive shortcomings. This guy had eight straight seasons of 540+ PA, which is amazing. Like Kent, in some respects.

5. BOB JOHNSON - I like this sort of consistency over a long span, though I'd hardly say he's a 'must-elect.' Interesting discussion in 2020 thread if he got a slight career delay from native American status, and this year re possible minor league credit. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Ralph Kiner. Or McGriff without the tail, offensively. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition; but talk of PCL credit reassures me. Has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than, say, many key holdovers have.

6. BOB ELLIOTT - Good to see him at least occasionally mentioned in discussions starting about 10-12 'years' back, at least. A lost cause - but he's my lost cause - so I have to vote as long as I believe. Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B (compare: Ventura never had any that high, Bell had only one higher). Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Joe Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some back in the day. Beats out HOMer Boyer for me and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter. Better hitter than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see those guys' threads for details).

7. TOMMY BRIDGES - Go 8 to 10 seasons deep, and he catches up to peakier rivals (not to mention he deserves WW II credit).

ERA+, full seasons
Pettitte - 177 156 132* 129 112 112 111 111 111 (111) 110 106 104 100 097
KAppier - 179 164 139 137 137 131 123 121 116 113 104 (094)
Hudson - 165 145 138 137* 131 129 129 121 119 113 110 097 092
Buehrle - 146 144 140 130 122 121 121 121 112 112 109 108 100 099 095
ViWillis - 165 154 153 131 128 115 111 109 104 098 096 096 089
Walters - 170 154 146 146 141 127 127 123 120* 107 103 094 092 090
Bridges - 146 144 141 140 139 139 137 133 119 118 115 111* 091

(*asterisks are combining two half-seasons into one figure)

8. TIM HUDSON - Did not see that coming last year, and he holds his ground. Holds his own in peak and prime against predecessors and doesn't lose much on the back end, ultimately.

9. ANDY PETTITTE - I didn't realize that he will have to be on my annual consideration list, but turns out he earned it. Better peak than I had realized gets him a ballot slot. Deserves a bonus 115 or so for postseason on the above chart.

10. KEVIN APPIER - "Was blind, but now, I see..." Peakier than Pettitte and THudson, which is not a knock on either of them. reminder that 1994 and 1995 were shortened seasons helped and was even more enthused; but only in top 10 in IP twice (5th and 8th, though in two of his best years for bonus points) slips him just below the other two. there's always next year!

11. DAVID ORTIZ - 141 OPS+ in 10091 PA (10 more than Abreu). A DH really has to smack that apple to get on a ballot, but he clearly did.

12. BOB ABREU - RF, looong career, 128 OPS+ in 10081 PA. only one Gold Glove and nobody seems to be complaining about that. Baserunning really helps, hence he'll stay on my radar.

13. DAVID WRIGHT - Years as a regular, OPS+ ('49' being 149 etc)
Wright - 156 49 44 42 40 33 31 24 01
SRolen - 158 39 38 29 29 28 26 26 21 20
Both 3Bs with shortish careers. Rolen waltzed to election in his first try in 2018. Better fielder, but Wright could handle the hot corner reasonably well.

14. SAMMY SOSA - Here the big, short prime is 5 yrs, and it's more obvious - because there wasn't a ton before or after. This is his case: Very durable with OPS+s in that prime of 160-151-161-203-160.

15. WALLY SCHANG - He keeps bouncing on and off my ballot. May need others to carry his water well enough to get me back on board for good, but I felt a little more love this year.


BUDDY BELL - One of a number of 3B guys from this era, and I prefer Sal Bando (heck, I once preferred Ron Cey but that may have been on overbid). Solid all-around player and 1980-84 peak is a very strong offense-defense case. I just don't see enough beyond that, though I appreciate why he gets some love.

SAL BANDO - See Bell, Buddy. SS vs 3B discussion the past two years intrigued me; might get either or both on my ballot next year.

BOBBY BONDS - 8090 PA, and best OPS+ is 151. A 130 to 143 six other times, which is nice - but the strong prime is just not quite long enough for an OF.

BEN TAYLOR - Long career, excellent fielder, consistent player. I'm not 100 pct sold on the hitting MLEs, but very good reputation and the reevaluation has made me comfortable enough to place in a ballot slot at times. It is true we're not short on players from his era.

VIC WILLIS - Really got hurt for me when I saw that Tim Hudson and now Kevin Appier were better.


PHIL RIZZUTO - I'll grant a lot of war credit and stipulate to the great, great fielding. But even 3 war credit years gets him only to 13 main years, and the fielding made him above-average overall but not excellent in most seasons. Has danced on and off my ballot over the years.

BUCKY WALTERS - Have voted for him often. Seemed to get almost Palmer-like defensive support, without enough super-stats to make that irrelevant. Proved his mettle outside of 'war years.' Bob Lemon-esque, though I wasn't a big fan there.

DAVE CONCEPCION - Peak is as good or better than Nellie Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position, so give Davey bonus points" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. And the good SSs were playing 3B, actually, we are now realizing.

BERT CAMPANERIS - This is a promotion for Dagoberto in my rankings; will think about him more next year. Part-time 2B-3B with a 101 OPS+ for Yankees at age 41 is irrelevant, but fun. Debuted with Hawk Harrelson and closed with Don Mattingly.

DON NEWCOMBE – A passionate, detailed Newcombe backer might also get me there someday - there were some efforts on the 2020 chatter in particular. I think he had the skills, but he didn’t quite actually produce quite enough. I think.

   10. bjhanke Posted: December 23, 2021 at 04:37 PM (#6058511)
DL - I read your ballot, and it was all fine by me, except that I don't understand why you compared ARod to Lajoie, Hornsby, Collins or Morgan in your #1 placement. I understand why you compared him to Wagner and Lloyd - they are shortstops, just like ARod. I would understand your comparing him to 3B, since he played there for some years. But the 2B, I don't get. Also, the point you're most likely to be getting at there is that the Shortstops go Wagner, ARod or Lloyd, Lloyd or ARod. That]s a very strong point, and I would not allow any other position to mess with that point.
   11. Rob_Wood Posted: December 27, 2021 at 06:47 PM (#6058780)
My 2022 HOM ballot:

I used to be much more of a "career value" voter. Two factors have mollified my stance over time: (1) I have become an ardent proponent of pennant-added measures in which "peak" seasons are given a "bonus"; (2) I have become an ardent proponent of the notion that "replacement level" increases over the duration of a player's career to reflect the "opportunity cost" of keeping a veteran in the lineup. I have written extensively on these two ideas so I won't say more here.

For starting pitchers I rely (to some extent) on a stat I developed to measure how much "value" a starting pitcher provides over a league-average pitcher. This stat is calculated for each and every start of a pitcher's career. Again, I have written extensively on my "Win Value" stat so I won't say more here.

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Tim Hudson
3. Bobby Abreu
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Sammy Sosa

6. Tommy Bridges
7. Buddy Bell
8. Bob Johnson
9. Kevin Appier
10. Bobby Bonds

11. Sal Bando
12. John Olerud
13. Vic Willis
14. Urban Shocker
15. David Wright

My consideration of top-ten returnees not appearing above:
Lance Berkman -- around 25
Wally Schang -- around 100
Ben Taylor -- around 50.

The only other newbie I seriously considered was David Ortiz who I would rank around 50.

   12. adarowski Posted: December 28, 2021 at 12:35 PM (#6058829)
Hey all, long-time listener, first—er, I suppose second-time voter. My thing is the Hall of Stats, so I put a pretty heavy weight on a WAR+WAA formula that has a whole bunch of adjustments added to it. But I also put a heavy emphasis on the early game (as co-chair of SABR’s 19th Century Overlooked Legend committee) and have most-recently become obsessed with researching overlooked Negro League players. I’m in the process of adding a version of Hall Rating based on Eric Chalek’s Negro League MLEs to the Hall of Stats.

That all said, I’m pretty stats-focused but you can’t be 100% stats focused when dealing with the 19th century and the Negro Leagues. So I’ve become a bit more well-rounded (I hope) in recent years. I’ve voted once before and it’s an honor to cast a vote again. The Hall of Merit has always had a home at the Hall of Stats.

And with that, my vote:
   13. adarowski Posted: December 28, 2021 at 12:43 PM (#6058830)
Hm, keeps cutting off after A-Rod and edits aren’t saving. Let’s try this again.

1. Alex Rodriguez (245 Hall Rating) - It doesn't feel great because of the failed test, but we're talking about a GOAT here.
2. Heavy Johnson (152 MLE Hall Rating) - If we look at what he did when he joined the Negro National League, we know what he could have done the seven years prior when he plied his trade in the military. The reason he was in the military instead of terrorizing the AL & NL is simply down to the color of his skin.
3. George Scales (121 MLE Hall Rating) - Superb bat in the infield for a very long time.
4. Thurman Munson (102 Hall Rating) - I've been toying with a bigger catcher adjustment and that would put Munson even higher. He's the best catcher outside the Hall and that doesn't even consider that he was still a productive player when his career was cut short.
5. David Ortiz (94 Hall Rating) - If I take heat on this one, so be it. A massive hitter. The slow start hurts his totals. Incredible postseason performance. Words can't express his importance to the Red Sox franchise. Our Willie Stargell.
6. Buddy Bell (124 Hall Rating) - I'm a massive Alan Trammell fan and he was quietly the Alan Trammell of third basemen. As soon as Brooks stopped winning all the Gold Gloves, he started winning them all. 2500 hits and 200 HR to go with the glove. More Hall of Value than Hall of Fame, but man was he valuable.
7. Hurley McNair (138 MLE Hall Rating) - A complete player for the Monarchs. Stats are sparse for his 20s, but the ones we have show he mashed. He also mashed in his 30s.
8. Ben Taylor (113 Hall Rating) - Similar story as McNair. Long career with a great bat.
9. Sammy Sosa (117 Hall Rating) - We don't have a positive test here. But we do have three 60-HR seasons.
10. Tim Hudson (108 Hall Rating) - Let's combine some old school and new school. Pitchers who can beat Hudson in wins (220) and ERA+ (120): Roger Clemens, Justin Verlander, Will White.
11. Mark Buehrle (106 Hall Rating) - Like Hudson, I'm afraid we're going to look at the Hudson/Buehrle/Oswalt/Pettitte-level pitchers in a few years and realize that not many have exceeded them in career value.
12. Bobby Abreu (110 Hall Rating) - Just an underrated on-base machine.
13. Gene Tenace (104 Hall Rating) - This guy really messes with me. A player like him is not supposed to exist. You should not be that good but have so few plate appearances (when it wasn't forced by injury). He simply was ahead of his time and I feel bad about holding that against him. Going on talent alone, I think he's higher on this list. But the lack of playing time (and modest career stats) brings him down some.
14. Wally Schang (104 Hall Rating) - The ultimate cherry-pick stat: No primary AL/NL catcher had more WAR between 1883 and 1934 (52 years). Great OBP behind the dish.
15. Tommy John (105 Hall Rating) - What he may not have had in peak dominance he more than made up in longevity.

Just missing the cut: Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Tommy John, Lance Berkman, Billy Wagner, and others. I'm not sure if George Stovey is eligible, but I think he'd be an excellent selection.

Required to comment on:

Andy Pettitte: Just barely on the outside. It's hard to pick Hudson and Buehrle but leave Oswalt and Pettitte off, but a line has to be drawn somewhere.
Lance Berkman: Probably closer to Ortiz than I want to admit. Not far off. Certainly within my Top 25.
Bobby Bonds: Honestly, the biggest difference between Bonds and Abreu is probably Abreu's more aesthetically pleasing stat line.
Sal Bando: I like Bando a lot. Just a tier below Boyer/Nettles/Bell and above Evans/Hack/Cey.
Vic Willis: Tough to go with Willis over other 19th century or early 20th century pitchers. Not much to distinguish him beyond being among the all time leaders in VC attempts.
   14. theorioleway Posted: December 28, 2021 at 02:32 PM (#6058842)
Back voting again after a hiatus. I had become disillusioned in being able to compare players from various eras, but have taken inspiration from Chris Cobb's methodology. I use BR, FG, and BG WAR, as well as Dr. C's NGL MLE's, and then adjust for war, minor league, racism, etc. Then using Chris' decade totals (except for 40s and 50s where I don't decrease) I rank players in each decade by tier. Tier 5 is top 10%, the truly elite. Tier 4 is the next 15%, not quite the best but better than your normal HOM. Tier 3 is the next 50%, which is supposed to be your standard HOM that no one would really argue with. Tier 2 is next 15% which represents players that either small-hall or people with different criteria wouldn't necessarily include. Tier 1 is remaining 10% and is for the borderline players. I find it easier to compare across players by only having to compare by tiers, and also illuminating in how WAR ends up spreading out across eras.

1. Alex Rodriguez (Tier 5)
A clown on and off the field but really good at baseball.
2. Hurley McNair (Tier 3)
3. Oscar (Heavy) Johnson (Tier 3)
Could argue the other way around for these 2 but I'm less confident in the regressed MLE defense for Johnson than for McNair.
4. Sammy Sosa (Tier 3)
5. Andy Pettite (Tier 3)
Both players who would be more obvious HOF than HOM candidates if not for the steroid allegations, but when you compare them to others of their era, they still end up near the bottom of Tier 3 and meritous.
6. Ben Taylor (Tier 2)
7. Bobby Abreu (Tier 2)
Two well-rounded players who it's easy to overlook their greatness.
8. Kevin Appier (Tier 2)
9. Tim Hudson (Tier 2)
10. Mark Buerhle (Tier 2)
11. Vic Willis (Tier 2)
Four pitchers who at first glance don't compare with their more famous/meritous contemporaries, but who were still great pitchers for their time and deserve to be recognized as such.
12. Don Newcombe (Tier 2)
13. Leon Day (Tier 2)
14. Bus Clarkson (Tier 2)
These three players have lots of adjustments made to them due to their circumstances to try to best accurately portray their quality as players. However because of this and where they end up, there is less comfort in the rankings and so they are lower on the ballot.
15. Dwight Gooden (Tier 2)
The 80s being weird for pitchers, and him having such an unusual career shape, place him at the bottom of the ballot.

Buddy Bell (Tier 1.5 - Tier 2 for 1/2 career in 80s, Tier 1 for 1/2 career in 70s)
Would be 16 if ballot went that far. His WAR value looks better in a vacuum compares to 70s contemporaries as well as 3B overstatent compared to SS for that era.
Lance Berkman (Tier 1)
Deserving HOM and will probably make my ballot in future if not elected this year.
Wally Schang (N/A)
The inclusion of Santop and Mackey to the eligible population really hurts his candidacy, as well as the fact that he didn't play a ton of C each season.
Bobby Bonds (N/A)
Just missed Tier 1 - ultimately the back-end of the 70s was super difficult to differentiate, so it's not impossible that he could get reevaluated into a tier and on a ballot in the future.
Sal Bando (N/A)
Same situation as Bell and Bonds except he's not as good.
   15. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 28, 2021 at 09:23 PM (#6058888)
I used to be much more of a "career value" voter. Two factors have mollified my stance over time: (1) I have become an ardent proponent of pennant-added measures in which "peak" seasons are given a "bonus"; (2) I have become an ardent proponent of the notion that "replacement level" increases over the duration of a player's career to reflect the "opportunity cost" of keeping a veteran in the lineup. I have written extensively on these two ideas so I won't say more here.

For starting pitchers I rely (to some extent) on a stat I developed to measure how much "value" a starting pitcher provides over a league-average pitcher. This stat is calculated for each and every start of a pitcher's career. Again, I have written extensively on my "Win Value" stat so I won't say more here.

Not to clutter the ballot thread but I'm not being allowed to post in the discussion area, Kris asked about Rob's post 11, I found a link that helps explain win values, in the absence of Rob being able to login and post : ).
   16. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 28, 2021 at 10:11 PM (#6058893)
As I was reviewing Adam's ballot, I apologize, but I whiffed on Urban Shocker thinking he had been elected, please swap him in at #14 for Appier on my ballot.
   17. Carl Goetz Posted: December 29, 2021 at 04:39 PM (#6058943)
1) Alex Rodriguez – Not much to say here. He blows everyone on this ballot away for both Career and Peak. Easy #1.
2) Thurman Munson: With Catcher ADj, has the top peak Score and overall score for this ballot. The next few are close, but Thurman is easy #1 for me.
3) Wally Schang: Ditto to Thurman, only he's #2. He's easily the best MLB catcher between Bresnahan and the 30s stars. I rate him better than Santop and I agree with Santop's election.
4) Buddy Bell: He'd be top in career and peak scores if it weren't for a catcher adjustment. He ranked here even after regressing his fielding 15%.
5) Art Fletcher: Phenomenal defense even with a lot of regression. I did 50-50 for Tinker and Fletcher between DRA & TZ since I think DRA overrates deadball SSs a bit. I also did my standard 15% regression.
6) Joe Tinker: Really nice defense and a strong peak. See Fletcher above.
7) Andy Pettitte: He's more career, but there's a lot of postseason value here. In some ways, I don't think its fair since he had way more postseason opportunities than most, but he still played well for a long time with a lot of innings on his arm.
8) Bernie Williams: Moved up my list last year once I started regressing defense by 15%. Also, he gets a lot of postseason credit.
9) Tommy Leach: Good blend of Career and peak. I go back and forth on where he is position-wise. He's definitely behind Bell if 3B and only slightly behind Bernie if OF.
10) Orel Hershiser: I was surprised to see his career score was higher than peak score. I usually think of him as a peak guy from the mid to late 80s Dodgers years.
11) Vic Willis: Example of a guy that doesn't score great in my system. I believe my system is missing something and that he's a really nice peak candidate. He rates far above any other pitcher in WSAB.
12) Ben Taylor is my only significant move this year. He went from #16 to #12. To my eyes, he’s still the best unelected negro leagues player.
13) Roy White: Scored above Leach and Bernie in raw numbers. I just don't quite trust the defensive numbers, so I scaled him back a little more than most players.
14) Bobby Veach: Same as Roy White.
15) Sammy Sosa: Starting to think I have too many OFs on my ballot given that I don’t think we are short there. But I do think he belongs. I wanted to add a 4th pitcher to my ballot here but ultimately couldn’t decide on one.
Top 10 Returnees
Berkman My system really doesn't like him (at least compared to the rest of you. He's roughly 45th on my ballot.
Abreu Probably about 20th. Bonds is definitely better by my system.
Bonds Ranks 16 just off ballot.
Bando Ranks 33 right now. I have Ron Cey at 32.
I think that covers the required players. Please let me know if I forgot anyone.
I wanted to make a couple other notes.
David Ortiz – I love David Ortiz and that era of the Boston Redsox. I know the HRs and postseason flair will have him do better than Edgar, but Edgar was significantly better than Papi by the numbers. I rank Papi in a cluster around #28-#30 on my 1B list. And of long time DHs, he’s definitely behind Edgar, Molitor and Thomas.
David Wright – Was never a Mets fan, but always liked Wright. By my current system, he’s a borderline Personal Hall guy. I have him around #30 on my master list right now. I look at him similarly to Dustin Pedroia. I like both players personally; both are currently #25 at their respective positions; and I’m disappointed that injuries kept both from doing that little bit more to be obvious cases.
   18. progrockfan Posted: December 30, 2021 at 08:23 AM (#6058997)
Elect-me slots:

1. Alex Rodriguez. Too bad about the ‘roids, which the evidence seems to show he may have been popping throughout his career, perhaps even in his teens. But even if we knock an arbitrary 20% off his career numbers, he’s a 500-homer shortstop with speed and a decent glove, which makes him historically unique and an Inner Circle-type player.

2. Luke Easter. The yawning gaps in the statistical record make it easy to understand why he’s been overlooked, but I regard him as the #1 (non-steroid related) omission of the Halls of Fame and Merit. A-Rod clearly ranks over him this year for speed, glove, endurance, place on the defensive spectrum, and documentable accomplishments. But Big Luke’s got superior plate discipline, and may well have been the best pure power hitter ever to play the game, including Ruth, Gibson, and everyone else. I believe he likely hit more total home runs vs. all competition than Gibson, whose Hall plaque credits him with “almost 800.”

3. Bobby Abreu. I’m surprised by the lack of support I see for him on this year’s ballot, which seems to indicate an overall focus on peak over career among the HoM electorate. I’m a career guy myself, and when I look at Bobby A. I see high-level offensive consistency in every significant category: average, power, walks, basepath speed. The man’s in the top 50 all-time in times on base, which may not surprise you, but it surprised the hell out of me. Add decent D, 400 steals at 76%, and a 96% games-played rate over a 13-year stretch, and I’d take a young Abreu as the cornerstone of most any expansion team.

4. Ben Taylor. Negro Leagues play featured a cannonade of ground balls on fields of uneven quality, which I think makes Taylor’s best-ever NgL first base glove substantially more valuable than it would be in modern ball. He’s also a career .339 hitter, not a lot of power but four titles in walks for a .400 career OBP. I see the NgL’s version of Keith Hernandez, and therefore an elect-me player.

The rest of my top 15:

5. Hugh Duffy. The greatest defensive outfielder of the 1890s. The greatest post-season hitter of the 19th century. Holds two presumably unbreakable career records for hitting. I think the electorate is significantly under-valuing him.

6. Bobby Bonds. I could be convinced, I think, that I’m under-rating him at #6. An exceptional combination of power and speed (6x 30HR, 7x 40SB at 73%). The strikeouts (unjustly) hampered his image in his own era; a lack of durability (justly) hampers him today.

7. Wally Schang. His .393 career OBP ranks second all-time at catcher. Good career longevity and brilliant defense in four World Series. Until Joe Mauer becomes eligible, I see Schang as the best catcher not in the HoM.

8. Bob Johnson. Had substantial careers both before and after his MLB playing time; given the right opportunities he might well have been a Winfield-type 3000-hit man, with less basepath speed but more walks and possibly a bit more XBH power.

9. Phil Rizzuto. Great defense up the middle, an MVP, and a solid chunk of WWII credit – but as Bill James once wrote: “When you’re dealing with a New York player, you do have to let some of the air out of the press notices.”

10. Kirby Puckett: Five 420+ putout seasons in center, some nice World Series heroics; not the hitter that Twins fans thought he was, of course, but five 200-hit seasons, two titles in total bases and a rare right-handed batting title place him comfortably above the pack.

11. George Van Haltren. A stubborn, idiosyncratic holdover for a long-time personal favorite. His runs scored stand out even in a high-scoring era: in the decade 1891-1900 he scored 136, 115, 129, 109, 113, 136, 119, 129, 118 and 114. And 40-31 as a pitcher besides!- God bless you, George, you’ll always be somewhere on my ballot.

12. Addie Joss: A sort of 19th-century Santana, among AL leaders in ERA and WHIP every year he was a regular; not nearly as dominant as Johan in the context of their respective eras. The timeline mauls his candidacy.

13. David Ortiz. A great hitter, obviously, but played only 278 of 2028 games in the field, and badly at that – and I’m chary about DH-only candidates. Edgar Martinez played over twice as many games in the field with a better glove. Big Papi did smoke in the Big Show, and I’ll acknowledge that I might be severely under-rating him.

14. Dolf Luque. Cuba credit pushes him ahead of Tiant for me; otherwise I see their candidacies as quite similar, and Tiant didn’t make my top 15 in previous years.

15. Thurman Munson. I suspect at least a partial illusion of context on his superficially excellent counting stats. A decent player – everyone on my ballot was a decent player – but many steps behind Mauer and Schang in my book.

Off my ballot:

Sal Bando. He was a plus offensive player and did lead the league in TB once, but a .760 OPS in 8200 PAs is nowhere close for me.

Buddy Bell. A good but not elite hitter, a vacuum cleaner at third. Combine the strengths of Bando and Bell into one player and you’ve got a HoM electee, but separately they fall short for me.

Lance Berkman. Seven consecutive seasons of .920+ OPS, but a sub-2000 game career.

Andy Pettite. Above-average consistency, with year after year of the same basic solid value, is a valuable asset for a pennant contender, and is the best thing Andy's got going for him. It isn’t enough for me. Probably better than Jack Morris, but not a whole lot better. Like Morris, I strongly suspect he’ll be elected to the HoF. We’re not obliged to make the same mistake.

Sammy Sosa. The corked bat. The clubhouse disruption. Ditching his team on his final day of the season. The Cubs publicly shunned him for quite a while; not sure if they still do. No thanks.

Vic Willis. Maybe I’m missing something here; the man was decent to be sure, very durable with a nice ERA, but to me essentially indistinguishable from a number of possibly worthy deadball pitchers. Got one shot at the Big Show in ’09 and lost his only decision. I honestly don’t get it. Sure, he holds the “modern era” record for single-season CG, but like many “modern era” records, that figure is surpassed many, many times by pitchers who played just a few years earlier. For me the modern era begins in 1920 with the live ball and the founding of the Negro Leagues, not 1900, which is an arbitrary line on a calendar. Willis strikes me as a HoF mistake – but as always, I’m open to discussion.
   19. Qufini Posted: December 30, 2021 at 09:08 PM (#6059068)
2022 Ballot

1. Alex Rodriguez, SS/3B (new): 140 OPS+ with peak years of 176, 173, 163, 161 and 160. Played a passable- and sometimes brilliant- shortstop (+16 fielding in 2000) or third baseman (+14 fielding in 2011). Wouldn’t blame anyone who took a one-year boycott on him, though.

2. David Ortiz, DH (new): 141 OPS+ in 10,091 plate attempts. Peak years of 171, 164, 161, 159 and 158. No defensive value, but still enough with the bat to debut ahead of Sosa.

3. Sammy Sosa, RF (1): 128 OPS+ in 9896 plate attempts. Five seasons of 150 or better. +86 fielding runs thanks to a great glove when he was a young. 10.3 WAR in 2001 and 60 for his career (zeroing out negative years at either end).

4. Ben Taylor, 1B: (3): Best position player in the Negro Leagues in 1914. Best first baseman in 1917, ’20, ’21 and ’22. 140 OPS+, +54 runs fielding, and 35.3 WAR.

5. Vic Willis, P (4): Best pitcher in the National League in 1899 (1st in ERA+, pitching wins and WAR for pitchers). Second-best in ‘01, ’02, and ’06. Packed a huge career (3996 innings) into only 13 seasons.

6. Don Newcombe, P (6): Minor league credit during integration, military credit during the Korean War and 9.0 WAR at the plate on top of an already very good pitching career. Black ink in Shutouts (1949), strikeouts (’51), WHIP (’55 & ’56) and walks per 9 IP (’55, ’57 & ’59).

7. Sal Bando, 3B (7): The best third baseman available. 119 OPS+ at the plate and +36 fielding runs at the hot corner.

8. Luis Aparicio, SS (8): Best available shortstop. +123 base-running (including reaching base w/o a hit) and +149 fielding. Does everything that doesn’t show up in OPS and WAR notices- his 49.9 beats Campaneris (45.3) and crushes Concepcion (33.6).

9. Andy Pettitte, P (9): 117 ERA+ in 3316 IP. Another 276 innings in the postseason of the same quality (3.81 ERA to 3.85 in the regular season). Better than Bridges relative to his era.

10. Fred McGriff, 1B (10): 134 OPS+ in 10,174. Top five in OPS+ and Runs Created six times each category. -34 fielding runs.

11. Thurman Munson, C (12): Best catcher available. Outstanding prime. 46.0 career WAR and 116 OPS+.

12. Bobby Abreu, RF (13): an incredibly steady prime with seasons of 6.4, 6.1, 6.2, 5.2, 5.8, 5.4 and 6.6 WAR from 1998 to 2004. Finished with 128 OPS+ and 61.2 WAR.

13. Bobby Bonds, RF (14): Base-running (+43) and defense (+47) move him ahead of other eligible right fielders Hooper, Clark and Rice. 129 OPS+ in 8090 PA.

14. Buddy Bell, 3B (15): Long career (over 10,000 plate attempts) and a great glove (+174 fielding runs). Also a better bat than Traynor (109 to 107 OPS+)

15. Elston Howard, C (16): Solid career as a catcher (+40 fielding runs, 108 OPS+) becomes elite when properly given credit for time spent in army and minors.

Required Disclosures:
Lance Berkman: good bat but lack of contributions on defense or the base paths leaves him behind the greats
Wally Schang: great catcher, I have him 3rd at the position him behind Munson and Howard

The next five:

16. Hugh Duffy, CF: 49.6 career WAR is best among pre-expansion center fielders not in the HoM.

17. Dave Bancroft, SS: Best prime among eligible shortstops, ten year stretch from ’17 to ’26 saw 108 OPS+/5500 plate attempts and +81 fielding.

18. Tommy Bridges, P: 126 ERA+ in 2826 IP, plus WWII credit for 1944

19. Tim Hudson, P: 120 ERA+ in 3126 IP

20. Bob Johnson, LF: 139 OPS+ in 6920 PA
   20. Patrick W Posted: December 31, 2021 at 06:22 PM (#6059159)
Compared to the electorate as a whole, I have to be considered a career voter. However, my vote does include an additional 5-year credit for a weighted average of peak seasons (3-Yr, 5-Yr, etc.). Ranking system is based off Davenport WARP components, with modified adjustments in the conversion from W1 to W3. I also review BB-Ref as a check but don’t use those numbers systematically.

I am up to 1,428 players total included in my current ranking assessment, including 938 players under consideration for this ballot (less the 277 HOM members and 213 actives or too-recently retired). Most time this year was spent determining partial credits for 2020, with not much time for updating or adding new players. Next year will likely involve a wholesale system revision to using BB-ref WAR components, as I have concerns with a recent, unexplained adjustment in the Davenport numbers.

1. Alex Rodriguez (n/e), N.Y. – Sea. (A), SS / 3B (1994-2016) (2022) – Clear head and shoulders above the other options for election on this list. Suspension certainly hampered his chances of moving up into the upper echelon, but the falloff around age 35 makes it likely the overall ranking wouldn’t have changed much. Being able to stay at shortstop for another 6-7 years might have though…

--- Top 10% of HOM Line ---
--- Top 25% of HOM Line ---

2. Jorge Posada (1), N.Y. (A), C (1997-2011) (2017) – As with all players of this era, Posada gets a boost because of a more-difficult American League environment. This elevates him above the Ted Simmons class. The nicely sustained peak from 2000-2007 also raises his value in my book, into the lower reaches of the Fisk/Cochrane class. Pretty impressive resume despite the relatively low AB total.

--- Top 50% of HOM Line ---

3. Jason Giambi (3), Oak. – N.Y. (A), 1B / DH (1995-2014) (2020) – Straight WARP plus a peak bonus would have Giambi atop this ballot. Hence my need to making fielding adjustments to hinder the DH-types. But Jason’s peak is top 25% HOM worthy, elevating him to the upper reaches of the ballot muddle.

4. David Ortiz (n/e), Bost. – Minn. (A), DH (1997-2016) (2022) – Certainly a possibility to rank higher with any amount of postseason credit, and there’s certainly an argument to be made for including that credit when a third of the league makes it to the crapshoot. However, this ranking is based strictly on regular season numbers. Very much like Giambi in my estimation, with all the value coming from the bat; I have Jason with a better peak score to slot ahead of David.

5. Bobby Abreu (4), Phila. (N) – L.A. (A), RF (1996-2014) (2021) – Similar story to Giambi. Longer career, but a much lesser peak and Giambi did more of his work in the stronger league.

6. Sammy Sosa (5), Chic. (N), RF (1990-2007) (2021) – McGwire’s up to 168th on my list and Sosa 182nd, so this old comment is no longer as cool as it once was. Both worthy of election, just a fluke of timing that Sammy waits until this year for election.

--. Lip Pike, St.L. – Balt. (NA), CF / RF (1871-1878) (2022)

7. David Wright (n/e), N.Y. (N), 3B (2004-2016) (2022) – WARP doesn’t like Wright’s defensive resume at all, but does give full credit for the offense – nearly equal to Ortiz in W1 despite the significantly fewer AB’s. Ortiz was in the stronger league, so the W3 numbers aren’t as close. Slight 3B-boost elevates Wright ahead of Berkman on this ballot.

--. John McGraw, Balt. (N) 3B / SS (1891-1902)

8. Lance Berkman (6), Houst. (N) 1B / LF (1999-2013) – A significantly better bat than Helton, but no fielding value, shorter career, and less impressive peak all add up. Helton and Berkman are not that far apart in total value, but the difference seems likely to be significant, amounting to a much longer wait time.

--. Eppa Rixey, Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (1912-1933)

9. Luis Gonzalez (7), Ariz. – Hou. (N), LF (1991-2007) – A career candidate with a tent pole 2001 season that elevates all his peak scores. I don’t recall thinking of the ’91 Astros as a great collection of talent when I saw them in person at Wrigley, but quite a few of ‘em made careers for themselves, no?

--. Rube Waddell, Phila. (A) SP (1899-1909)

--. Dobie Moore, K.C. (--) SS (1916-1926)

10. Brian Giles (8), Pitts. – S.D. (N) RF / LF (1996-2009) – The peak score and fielding regression adjustments slot Giles in ahead of Reggie Smith and Bob Johnson in the pecking order.

11. Lance Parrish (9), Detr. – Calif. (A) C (1978-1995) – Very low peak score, yet still way ahead of Schang. Career candidate with catcher bonus is enough to slot here. It’s also enough to question the value used for the catcher bonus (but not until next year).

--. Sandy Koufax, L.A. (N) SP (1956-1966)

12. Jim Whitney (10), Bos. – Wash. (N) SP (1881-1888) – I see no reason why we would elect any more pitchers from the 1880s, but my statistical updates suggest we maybe should have selected different ones; can’t penalize Whitney for past mistakes. Two really good seasons amongst six All-Star type years. The peak score elevates a possibly not-long-enough career to the ballot. Whitney definitely needs the help he gets from his offensive output – the pitching alone wouldn’t qualify him here.

13. Ben Taylor (11), Ind. (--) 1B (1910-1926) (1938) – Measures up as better than Giambi’s career numbers, but not nearly as well on the peak measure. All-in-all though, a favorable reevaluation that places him up where he was when he entered the P-Hall many moons ago.

14. Frank Tanana (12), Calif. – Detr. (A) SP (1973-1993) (2000) – No longer seen as having a Koufax peak, but it is still one of the top 175 peaks of all time. Plus the ever- present 10 additional years of average / below avg.

--. Charley Jones, Cinc. (AA/NL) LF / CF (1875-1887)

15. Jack Quinn (13), N.Y. - Bost. (A) SP (1909-1932) – Credit given for missing seasons of 1916 through part of 1918, due apparently only to the failing of the Federal League. Factoring that in, he looks right at home amongst all the other long-ish career pitchers clustering on my ballot.

--- I have 31 players ranked among the top 277 of all time who are eligible for this election, and an additional 20 previously elected HOM players awaiting induction for the pHOM. ---

Andy Pettitte – Lies well below my pHOM line; since my system seems to elevate modern day pitchers over what other voters believe, seeing Pettitte require comment is a surprise. Long career, but the peak score disappoints (despite a couple of supreme seasons in ’97 and ’05). Not factored into the ranking, but I still don’t know how his pickoff move was not a balk.

Buddy Bell (2009) – Has risen back above my pHOM line, I think due to a reevaluation of the league adjustment for the 70s AL. Bell now ranks right near Bobby Bonds as top-290 players (top 30 on the ballot), but the path back to ballot slots seems remote in the near future.

Wally Schang – I don’t see it. And I especially don’t see it with Posada also eligible. I have Schang as the 10th best catcher eligible, and carrying a worse peak score than anyone listed above him on my rankings.

Bobby Bonds (1987) – An arguable case as one of the best 280 eligible players of all time; as I have it right now he is just barely outside that range, atop the very borderline of in/out in my system. But of course there are HOMers ranked below Bonds from earlier generations, so the in/out line for the current generation is actually higher than just making the top 280. In the P-Hall, and I’m always in favor of seeing those guys elected, but right now he’s in the 30s on my ballot.

Sal Bando – Slotted between Pie Traynor and Billy Nash among full-time third basemen. A reassessment has adjusted his current ranking about 50 spots (and just into the top 500 for me all time), but he is not really under consideration.

Vic Willis – Mixed amongst a group of pitchers that I currently consider as just below the HOM line, although a number of this group are elected to the P-Hall. But with my placing a larger emphasis on peak over prime than before, Willis is barely ranked within the top 30 of eligible pitchers in my estimation. Besides those listed on the ballot above, I would suggest others consider Tommy John, Dutch Leonard, and Chuck Finley first.

Pettitte, Bell, Schang, Bonds, Bando, and Willis were in last year’s top thirteen, but not in my top 15 this year.
   21. Brent Posted: January 03, 2022 at 04:36 PM (#6059478)
2022 ballot

My rating system uses rWAR and adjusts for season length, military service, league quality, and post-season performance, gives minor league credit for seasons that would be above major league average, and judgmentally adjusts some of rWAR’s positional factors for certain time periods. I’m a peak/prime voter and pretty much ignore seasons that are average or below.

I think that the electorate has done a good job selecting the best pre-integration players, but now it’s time to focus on the less well represented post-integration players.

1. Alex Rodriguez. Best position player since Barry Bonds
2. Sammy Sosa
3. Bobby Abreu
4. Bobby Bonds
5. Sal Bando. Over the ten-year period from 1969 to 1978, he averaged 156 games a year with a 127 OPS+ and 5.7 WAR.
6. Buddy Bell. An above-average hitter with an outstanding glove.
7. Kirby Puckett. He was overrated during and shortly after his career, but now seems underrated. My peak/prime oriented system likes him.
8. Willie Davis. A great fielder; the expanded strike zone from 1963 to 1968 kept him from achieving his offensive potential.
9. Lance Berkman
10. Bernie Williams
11. Andy Pettitte
12. Phil Rizzuto. An excellent defensive shortstop, I credit him as about a 5 WAR/yr player for 1943-45.
13. César Cedeño. Didn’t do much after age 29, but he was a fine player before then.
14. Roy Oswalt
15. Mark Teixeira. From 2004 to 2012, he averaged 150 games a year with a 134 OPS+, good fielding, and 5.0 WAR.

Just missing my ballot are David Ortiz, Tim Hudson, Fred McGriff, Chuck Finley, Mark Buehrle, Vic Willis, and Hugh Duffy.

David Wright was on course for the HoM through age 30, but fell a little short due to injuries.

Required disclosures:
Vic Willis - just off my ballot at # 21.
Ben Taylor – He didn’t hit enough to qualify based on his bat, and I’m not persuaded that his glove was enough to push him above the line. I rate him as one of the better candidates from the pre-integration backlog but still not really close to my ballot.
Wally Schang – I have him behind catchers Munson, Tenace and Posada, and not really close to my ballot at all.
   22. The Honorable Ardo Posted: January 03, 2022 at 08:49 PM (#6059512)
2022 ballot. All three 2020 inductees were on my ballot: Lofton at #3, Santana at #8, Kent at #11.

1. Alex Rodriguez (new) - All-time top 30.
2. Wally Schang (was #1) - the only notable white, pre-integration omission.
3. Hilton Smith (was #2) - The only well-documented portion of Smith's career is 1937-43 and he accumulates all of his 13 PWAA in that span. I need more evidence that he wouldn't have started until age 25 and was mediocre in his late 20's; I'm giving him 10-12 more PWAA prior to 1937. Then he's able to return from World War II and pitch four more seasons.
4. Bobby Abreu (was #6)
5. Adolfo Luque (was #4) - didn't have a normal development curve. No (known) Cubans played in MLB from National Association days until 1911. Luque debuted for the Miracle Braves in 1914, but didn't get a chance as a regular starter until 1920. He then dominated for six years before gradually aging. A similar case, in fact, to Hilton Smith.
6. Jorge Posada (was #7)
7. Luke Easter (was #5) - a lot of conjecture, but we have a guy performing at a David Ortiz/Fred McGriff level in his late 30's, facing obstacles neither modern player faced, and plenty of supporting evidence that he was a great slugger before then.
8. Sammy Sosa (was #14)
9. Buddy Bell (was off, has been on) - persuaded by Chris Cobb. A truly outstanding player for putrid Rangers teams.
10. Andy Pettite (was #10) - my highest modern pitcher, above Buehrle, Hudson, John, Appier, and Hershisher.
11. Ben Taylor (was #9) - John Olerud:Ben Taylor. The difference is that Taylor's fine fielding, because of his era, provided more value to his teams than Olerud's.
12. Johnny Evers (was #13) - deserves a lot of the sabermetric defensive credit allotted to Joe Tinker.
13. David Ortiz (new) - Minnesota Ortiz zeroes out. Boston Ortiz is Willie Stargell minus one season (about 600 PA). He makes my personal Hall this year, though both Easter and Taylor belong ahead of him.
14. Thurman Munson (was off, has been on) - accrues a stronger prime, but less total value, than Posada. A worthy selection. We're still short on catchers.
15. Vic Willis (was #12)

First ten off: Campaneris, Berkman, Buerhle, Duffy, Lee Smith, Rizzuto, John, Bobby Bonds, Nomar, Hudson (was #15, demoted).
Next ten off: Bando, McGriff, Van Haltren, Clarkson, Walters, Wright, E. Howard, Appier, Lemon, Olerud.

Beyond Olerud at #35 I frankly don't see a lot of separation.
   23. Chris Cobb Posted: January 04, 2022 at 02:35 PM (#6059616)
2022 Ballot

<u>Brief System Review</u>

I use a metric that combines career value as measured by wins above replacement, prime value as measured by wins above average on a seasonal basis (roughly seasonal WAR minus 2, negative values treated as zero), and peak quality, as measured by a player’s rate of WAR over a period of 5 or more consecutive seasons. (For position players, I use bWAR and fWar; for pitchers, bWAR only.) I then rank players according to this metric within decade-by-decade cohorts, using league size, with some adjustments for demographic factors, to set a soft HoM quota for each decade. Finally, I integrate the decade-by-decade rankings into a single ranking by considering first the players’ rank within their cohort, re-scaled to put all decades on a scale of 30, where 30 marks the in-out line. For players in nearby decades, I also compare their raw scores, but playing conditions often change so much from one decade to the next that the contextual value achievable by top players often varies considerably in ways that go beyond quality-of-competition changes, so I place most weight on each player’s ranking against their contemporaries. I seek to be fair to all eras by prioritizing players from decades that haven’t yet met their soft quotas over players from decades that already have their “share” or more of players elected.

<u>The Ballot</u>

For counting purposes, I’m keeping the discussion of each player short. For more detailed discussion, see my preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread.

1. Alex Rodriguez. Newly eligible. (2000s. System score: 238.95. In-Decade Scaled Rank: 1.5). An All-Time Great, vastly superior to any other player eligible this year.
2. Bobby Abreu #6 in 2021. (2000s. System score: 121.41. In-Decade Scaled Rank: 21.5). Complete player with an extended prime but without an outstanding peak.
3. Buddy Bell #3 in 2021. (1980s. System score: 128.23. In-Decade Scaled Rank: 24.1). One of a strong cohort of third basemen who achieved greatness in a period that sharply limited the upper bounds on the value of power hitting, enabling third basemen, who balanced offensive and defensive value, to shine.
4. Kevin Appier #5 in 2021. (1990s. System Score: 125.6. In-Decade Scaled Rank: 26.2). Now that Santana has been elected, Appier has the best peak of eligible, modern pitchers. The 1994-95 strike took a chunk out of it.
5. Bobby Bonds #7 in 2021. (1970s. System Score: 123.9. In-Decade Scaled Rank: 29.4). Complete player with a fine prime but short career. Bonds gets a bit of a boost in the rankings for being a top hitter in a period in which it was very tough to accumulate hitting value.
6. Sammy Sosa #8 in 2021. (1990s. System Score: 133.07. In-Decade Scaled Rank: 25.1). A tremendous power hitter during his peak. Lowered slightly due to poor performance on WPA-type metrics.
7. Brian Giles #12 in 2021. (2000s. System Score: 117.72. In-Decade Scaled Rank 24.5). My system likes him a little bit better than Lance Berkman, who has been getting somewhat more attention from the electorate, because of Giles’ stronger consecutive peak and higher defensive value. I’m not sure why Giles is so far under the radar.
8. Orel Hershiser #18 in 2021. (1980s. System Score: 118.5. In-Decade scaled rank 28.8). A great peak in the hard-to-dominate 1980s, some stronger seasons than are often remembered after his return from shoulder surgery, and one of the best-hitting pitchers of his generation makes Hershiser a solid candidate.
9. Jason Giambi #16 in 2021 (2000s. System Score: 116.35. In-Decade scaled rank 26.5). His batting peak was great, but not Frank-Thomas-great, so it will take a while for his case to gain traction with the electorate.
10. Tim Hudson #9 in 2021. (2000s. System Score: 115.3. In-Decade Scaled Rank 27.5). Hudson’s well-rounded game places him a bit above Mark Buerhle and Andy Pettitte in my pitcher rankings for 2000s decade. He’ll be the best eligible pitcher from that decade until CC Sabathia reaches the ballot (unless Hudson gets elected before Sabathia becomes eligible).
11. Ben Taylor #13 in 2021. (1910s. System Score: 113.28. In-Decade scaled rank 23.7). Some uncertainties about his value remain that I’d like to see clarified sometime in sabermetric history, but among deadball-era first basemen, he’s pretty clearly the best after early George Sisler. Among NeL near-contemporaries, his case relies much less on guesswork than those of Heavy Johnson and Hurley McNair. I rank Taylor somewhat below what his decadal ranking would suggest because, despite being four spots above the in-out line for his decade, he is only 3 points above it.
12. Chuck Finley #11 in 2021. (1990s. System Score: 117.0. In-Decade Scaled Rank 27.8). Frequently overlooked because he lacked a great consecutive peak, he scattered three great years across a very solid prime.
13. John Olerud #19 in 2021. (1990s. System Score: 116.69. In-Decade scaled rank 28.4). Very different player from Giambi, but the next first baseman in line after him. He is a very similar to but slightly better than Will Clark.
14. Lance Berkman #23 in 2021. (2000s. System Score: 114.65. In-Decade scaled rank 28.5). I never saw him as a great player during his career, but he was an outstanding hitter, and his defense was solid.
15. Bucky Walters #15 in 2021. (1940s. System Score: 107.3. In-Decade scaled rank 29.2). Being dominant pitcher of the first half of the 1940s with a reasonably long career and a lot of batting value makes Walters a solid choice for the final ballot spot.

The rest of the top 20

16. Chet Lemon (1980s. System Score: 116.77. In-decade scaled rank 30). Generally overlooked; has he ever gotten a vote? Doesn’t quite make my ballot this year, but probably will in 2023.
17. Mark Buerhle #21 in 2021 (2000s. System Score: 111.7. In-Decade scaled rank 29.5). A personal favorite. I would love to see him elected, but as he’s just slightly above the all-time in-out line, it may be a long wait for him. He may get traction as his durability shows better.
18. Tommy Bond (1870s. System Score: 132.54. In-decade scaled rank 25.4). A reassessment of 1870s stars moves him up considerably from my posted prelim, where he was ranked 44th. Bond was the best pitcher in major-league baseball in 1878 and 1879 as part of an outstanding run from 1875-79. From a rate standpoint, this run was by far the most dominant stretch of pitching of the pre-1893 era, which induces me to put him high in the pitching backlog.
19. Sal Bando. #17 in 2021. (1970s. System Score: 116.85. In-Decade scaled rank 30.6). Re-evaluation of third base replacement levels has dropped Bando a little bit from my highest placement for him, and he slips one place further this year to parity with David Wright.
20. David Wright. Newly eligible (2000s. System Score: 111.03. In-decade scaled rank 30.5). Strong player, but injuries cut him short. Still weighing the proper order for Wright, Garciaparra, and Pettitte, although all three are likely to stay off ballot for me this year.

Required Disclosures.

27. Vic Willis #27 in 2021. (1900s. System Score: 121.84. In-Decade scaled rank 26.5). A bit above the borderline in a well-represented decade that was very favorable for pitchers. In a tight group with Waddell and McGinnity—my system sees him as a little behind both, but better than the elected Brown. There’s some concern that he was less successful than his run-support should have enabled, but that conclusion from an earlier analytical era may not stand up to scrutiny. Although I’d put Willis in the HoM ahead of Brown, I’d definitely put Bond and Shocker on the ballot ahead of Willis.

32. Andy Pettitte (2000s.System Score: 108. In-decade scaled rank 33.5). A much-discussed candidate. Low regular-season IP numbers and lack of a strong consecutive peak hurt Pettitte’s performance in my system: he just doesn’t show as a dominant pitcher, although he was consistently above average. I don’t see him as a bad choice for the HoM, but I’m less impressed by his record than many.

61. Wally Schang (1920s. System Score: 105. In-decade scaled ranking 37.3). Lack of peak, presence of NeL elected contemporary catchers Santop and Mackey, and plentiful representation of 1920s decade overall keep Schang well away from my ballot. He was, compared to the average player, an outstanding ballplayer, but I’d need a bigger Hall of Merit to have a place for him.

Other Newly Eligible Players of Note.

55. David Ortiz. Newly eligible. (2000s. System Score: 104.95. In-decade scaled rank 35.5). Some have suggested that the DH position adjustment in bWAR is too large, but if I treat Ortiz as a first baseman and factor in his below average defense at first, he ends up worse than he would with the DH position adjustment by about six wins. Rated only as a hitter, he’d fall between Jason Giambi and Lance Berkman.

Not ranked. Jimmy Rollins (2000s. Scaled in decade rank around 40, which would get him an overall rank approximately 40-45 spots behind Ortiz). One of the better shortstops of his era. Well behind Arod, Jeter, and Garciaparra, the latter of whom has gotten almost no attention from the electorate, so Rollins won’t either. Very close in value to Miguel Tehada. DRA sees Rollins’ defense as terrible, but other systems see him as above average. Even with the positive defensive evaluation, he’s not near the ballot.
   24. Mike Webber Posted: January 04, 2022 at 02:52 PM (#6059620)
I use Win Shares and BB Ref War as the first filters, with emphasis on career, where a player ranks among his era peers, with big seasons as a boosting factor.
Top 10 Returning Players – Lofton, Santana, Kent elected
Bobby Abreu, Sammy Sosa, Andy Pettitte, Buddy Bell, Lance Berkman, Wally Schang, Bobby Bonds, Sal Bando, Vic Willis, Ben Taylor

1)Alex Rodriguez 117.5 BWAR, 491 Win Shares. 8 MVP type seasons, 15 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Easy #1

2) BOBBY ABREU 60.0 BWAR, 356 Win Shares. One MVP type seasons, 11 seasons 20+ Win Shares.

3) SAL BANDO – 61.6 BBref-WAR, 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares.

4) DAVID ORTIZ - 55.3 BBref - 316 Win Shares, 1 MVP type season, 6 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Post season accomplishments put him ahead of the players with similar regular season value profiles.

5) LANCE BERKMAN 52.1 BBref-WAR, 313 Win Shares. 4 MVP type seasons, 10 seasons 20+ Win Share season.

6) SAMMY SOSA – 58.4 BBref-WAR, 322 Win Shares – three 30+ Win Share seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Value wise very similar to Bobby Bonds.

7) TOMMY LEACH 46.8 BBref-WAR, 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.

8) JASON GIAMBI 50.5 BWAR, 325 Win Shares. 4 MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. This ranking really surprised me, his career value is so much greater than Chance, and he has similar big seasons, so he has to be ahead of him.

8) ANDY PETTITTE 60.7 WAR, 224 Win Shares, 2 20 win-share seasons. 2nd 1996 Cy Young ballot. Post season credit makes him the best available modern pitcher.

9) FRANK CHANCE 45.6 WAR 237 Win Shares – 6 20 win-share seasons, 3 MVP type seasons. I’m a career guy, but this is the peakiest of peak guys.
10) FRED MCGRIFF 52 WAR, 342 Win Shares. 10 seasons 20+ Win Shares. 1 MVP type season.

11) PHIL RIZZUTO – 40.6 BBref-WAR, 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. With a conservative 60 or so win shares or 9 WAR during World War II, I move him to the top of the middle infielder group. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946. (No extra credit for 1946 – just noting it).
12)BOBBY BONDS57.7 BBref-WAR, 302 Win Shares – Four 30+ Win Share seasons, at ages 23, 24, 25, and 27. After age 33 Bobby had 7 win shares, Barry had 286. Pete Browning without the fielding problems?

13) BUDDY BELL 66.1 BBref - 301 Win Shares, ZERO MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares.

14) TIM HUDSON 56.5 WAR, 219 Win Shares, 3 20-win share seasons. 2nd 2020 Cy Young ballot.
15) KEVIN APPIER 54.9, 189 Win Shares, 2 20-win share seasons. 3rd in 1993 Cy Young ballot, but he should have won it.

Next group of guys off the ballot grouped by position:
Tommy John 289 WS, 62 WAR, 1 20WSS , Vic Willis, Mark Buehrle, Gene Tenace, Jorge Posada, Wally Schang, Olerude, Norm Cash, Orlando Cepeda, Johnny Evers, Larry Doyle, David Wright, Bob Elliot, Ron Cey, Joe Tinker, Miguel Tejada, Luis Aparicio, Dave Bancroft, Jim Fregosi, Vern Stephens, Ken Williams, Bernie Williams, Bob Johnson, Sam Rice, Luis Gonzalez.

New Players not on ballot:
David Wright – 267 Win Shares, 49.2 WAR, 3 MVP type seasons, 8 20-win share seasons. 2 or 3 more healthy seasons and he’s probably in. Kind of the reverse argument of Buddy Bell, Wright has the Peak, Bell has the bulk.

Other required notes:
Schang has so little peak it’s hard to move him into an elect position, but the best available catcher.
Vic Willis – 3rd off ballot pitcher for me.
Ben Taylor – Not enough stick to strongly consider him.
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: January 04, 2022 at 03:40 PM (#6059627)
Mike, one too many "8ths" there
   26. Mike Webber Posted: January 04, 2022 at 04:35 PM (#6059636)
Sorry Counters, drop Appier from my ballot please. Thanks Howie for pointing it out.
   27. HAWK Posted: January 04, 2022 at 10:11 PM (#6059669)
My ranking takes in: career raw stats, modern ratings (such as WAR and OPS+, etc.), fielding, and their rankings among their peers for their best 10 years.

1) Alex Rodriguez – Ranked 30th greatest all-time on my chart. 140 OPS+. Will not take into consideration of PED suspension with my voting
2) Pie Traynor – Greatest Third Baseman for the first half of the 20th century, edging out Home Run Baker and Jimmy Collins. Consistently top 2 at his position during his 12-year peak. Even with his so-called “weak” stats, he still ranked in my Top 15 Third Basemen of all time, and Top 25 fielding Third Basemen.
3) Sammy Sosa - Ranked 144th on my chart (highest returning eligible candidate). 609 home runs is still pretty impressive. 128 OPS+
4) Vic Willis – Ranked 168th. 8 20-win seasons. 63.2 WAR
5) Bobby Abreu – Ranked 169th. 128 OPS+. 60.2 WAR
6) Buddy Bell – Ranked 194th. 6th best fielding Third Baseman. Top 20 Third Baseman. 66.3 WAR
7) Luis Aparicio – Ranked 218th. 9 Gold Gloves. 506 SBs. 10 Top 25 MVP candidate seasons. 55.8 WAR
8) Sal Bando – Ranked 239th. 61.5 WAR
9) Andy Pettitte – Ranked 172nd. 60.2 WAR
10) Tommy John – Ranked 190th. Most post-1900 wins (288) not in Hall of Merit. 61.6 WAR
11) Eddie Cicotte – Ranked 192nd. 123 ERA+. 59 WAR
12) Bobby Bonds – Ranked 202nd. 129 OPS+. 57.9 WAR
13) John Olerud – Ranked 214th. 129 OPS+. 58.2 WAR
14) Willie Davis – Ranked 244th. 60.7 WAR
15) Dizzy Dean – Ranked 216th. 131 ERA+. 46.2 WAR

Required Disclosure:

16) Lance Berkman – Ranked 201st. 144 OPS+. 52 WAR. WAR just a tad low
17) Bob Johnson – Ranked 206th. 139 OPS+. 55.8 WAR
18) Burleigh Grimes – Ranked 210th. 52.8 WAR
19) Urban Shocker – Ranked 220th. 124 ERA+. 58.6 WAR
20) Bucky Walters – Ranked 231st. 53.5 WAR
21) Thurman Munson – Ranked 234th. 46.1 WAR
22) Chuck Klein – Ranked 236th. 137 OPS+. 46.6 WAR
23) Chuck Finley – Ranked 247th. 57.9 WAR
24) Jack Quinn – Ranked 248th. 58.6 WAR
25) David Ortiz – Ranked 198th. 141 OPS+. 55.3 WAR. Mainly DH lowers ranking
26) Sam Rice – Ranked 255th. 54.4 WAR
27) David Wright – Ranked 257th. 133 OPS+. 49.2 WAR
28) Mark Buehrle – Ranked 264th. 59.1 WAR
29) Wally Schang – Ranked 320th. 47.9 WAR. WAR too low
30) Kiki Cuyler – Ranked 272nd. 47.9 WAR
31) Ben Taylor – Don’t know how to evaluate Negro League
   28. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 04, 2022 at 10:11 PM (#6059670)
Copied directly from the Discussion Thread:

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. David Ortiz
3. Tommy John
4. Tim Hudson
5. Vern Stephens
6. Andy Pettitte
7. Lance Berkman
8. Jason Giambi
9. Wally Schang
10. Darryl Strawberry
11. Urban Shocker
12. Tommy Henrich
13. Toby Harrah
14. Bert Campaneris
15. Dave Concepcion

Required disclosures:

Pettitte, Berkman and Schang are on my ballot
Sosa is the first man off my ballot
Abreu, Bando, and Bonds are all probably in my top 40
Bell is probably outside my top 200. I've discussed him extensively; my system just isn't a fan.

Willis and Taylor are inadequately handled by my system which isn't an excuse for excluding them (my system is also missing significant portions of the careers of Schang and Shocker and I've voted for Johnny Evers, among others, in the past).

My reading of Dr. C's latest MLEs on Ben Taylor leave him well outside of HOM-worthy. But I'm certainly open to being wrong about that.

Vic Willis is the type of pitcher that my system tends to like and I've had him on-ballot in the past. Given the perpetual eligibility and the knowledge that eventually Retrosheet will get back far enough that I will have a better handle on Willis's full career, I feel more confident in the HOM-worthiness of the 15 players that I've listed. But I will certainly re-evaluate Willis's case as I get more data.
   29. Al Peterson Posted: January 05, 2022 at 10:15 AM (#6059704)
Final ballot, copying over what I had done in the discussion thread.

2022 ballot – #1 spot was an autofill, then the rest diving into the massive backlog.

Methodology in brief: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WAR, OPS+/ERA+. Ratings include positional adjustments, additions to one’s playing record for minor league service, war, and NeL credit and for our real oldtimers some contemporary opinion thrown in. The HOM discussion threads are gold, I appreciate all who have devoted much time to their chosen research.
The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types. Last year’s placement is in parenthesis.

1. Alex Rodriguez (new). Well that was difficult. Whatever PED discount you want to lay on him won’t be enough to drag him down from this perch. Crazy player linkage: both ARod and Goose Gossage played on the 1994 Mariners. I would have put those two players much further apart era-wise.

2. Phil Rizzuto (2). Holy Yankee shortstops Batman!! I’ve done my minor league & WWII absence calibration so Scooter scoots to ballot position. Glove first but the offense during prime years was nothing to sneeze at either.

3. Lance Berkman (7). He’s the type of extended prime player my system tends to favor. Bob Johnson of his era, likely to have the same fate where 30 years from now his name will be unfamiliar to many casual baseball fans.

4. Bobby Abreu (5). Doubles power, good batting eye, sneaky speed in a corner outfielder. Kind of guy you overlook – supported by the 2 All-Star appearances – who did things that help your team win ballgames.

**** WARNING: SEVERE OLD-TIMERS AHEAD. I just can’t quit them… ****

5. Tommy Leach (4). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in – you don’t get to play 900+ games at 3b & CF without having a good defensive skill set. Useless trivia: Still holds World Series record with 4 triples in a single series.

6. Tony Mullane (6). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team: come on, “The Apollo of the Box” has that certain something.

7. Mickey Welch (8). 300 game winner in the house. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey. Seemed to pitch well against the other front line starters of his day.

8. Bob Johnson (9). Always a bit underrated in Win Shares due to quality of teams he played on. His career has war years that need discount. But also a couple years at the beginning of his career were in the PCL where he was more than major league quality. The tail of his career is nonexistent since the 1946 avalanche of returning War players pushed him back to the minors.

9. Bobby Bonds (3). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son, but we’re talking about a RF who could steal bases and field his position. All five tools on display.

10. Sammy Sosa (10). Peak power that was enough to make people start walking him. This increased his value as it upped his OBP skills, doubling the value added. Early in his career he had base stealing and defense as assets.

11. Ben Taylor (12). Holding steady here. He lingers on ballot fringe, we have 1B to spare. Some NeL updates have downgraded Taylor but still feel ballot spot warranted.

12. Tommy John (13). He remains in a Willis/Pettitte cluster. Offer value in different ways but all fine pitchers. Nothing quite as soothing as watching hitters pound his sinker into the dirt over, and over, and over again.

13. Buddy Bell (14). The gap between top-tier 3Bmen is not large for the position when he played in the 70s and 80s. Body type didn’t really look the part of a great glovemen but few would deny he was outstanding.

14. Vic Willis (15). Another pitcher this one from the turn of the century..the 20th, not the 21st. Refreshing hurlers to my ballot and feel his era is owed another slot. HOM worthy? Eh, no strong feelings.

15. Andy Pettitte (16).
Getting kind of Yankee heavy in here, apparently they’ve had some good dudes over the years. Above average production for awhile does get you somewhere in life.

Next up, but off ballot:

16. Tim Hudson. Neck-and-neck with Pettitte. Extended prime, thought of decently by media/fans at the time with 4 All-Star appearances and 4 Top 5 Cy Young finishes.
17. David Wright (new). Sometimes life isn’t fair. Great player but the body balked too early and that was that. Seeing him play in Double-A on his way to the Mets there was little doubt Mr. Wright was going to be a star.

Next group – Sal Bando, Jack Clark, Luke Easter, John Olerud, David Ortiz, Mark Buerhle, Urban Shocker

Top 10

Wally Schang: The arguments of a drought in catchers during his era hold some water, leaks once you start bringing up the NeL backstops. If ordering catchers have Schang below Posada (Jorge is around #30-35), real close to Tenace.

Other newbies:
Mark Teixeira is deep backlog, slotted him by Dave Parker and Vern Stephens. Jimmy Rollins is a little below that, next to another SS in Miguel Tejada. J-Roll did get a NL MVP, a nice consolation prize to career awards.
   30. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: January 05, 2022 at 12:08 PM (#6059718)
Quick system review:

I create my own version of WAR (mWAR) using a combination of bWAR, fWAR and WS. I then reverse engineer league-agnostic WAA values from the mWAR values. I adjust mWAR and mWAA for standard deviation, Doc Chaleeko’s integration adjustments, and by the true historical replacement level and positional median levels, respectively, for mWAR and mWAA.

I use the yearly mWAR values to create a peak-rate salary estimator (the original one used by DanR is his WARP system). For the seasonal mWAA values, I sort from greatest to smallest, and multiply the player’s best WAA season by 100%, the second best by 95%, third best by 90%, etc. and sum the totals.

I then divide the player’s total salary by $100M and multiply the cascaded mWAA sum by 4 and then average the two numbers. I then add bonuses for my personal MMP awards and All-Star teams, as well as a cWPA-based post-season bonus.

The final number I call my PEACE+ (Player Excellence And Career Evaluation) number – 300 is top ten-ish all-time, 200 is inner-circle, 100 is would be my eventual cut-off line.

2022 Hall of Merit ballot:

2022 PHoM: Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Jeff Kent, and Andy Pettitte.

1. Alex Rodriguez – 285.36 PEACE+. mWAR MMP 1996, 2005, 2007; AL MMP 2002, 2003, 2008; AL MMPosition Player 2000. mWAR All-Star SS 1996, 1998, 2000-2003, 3b 2005, 2007. No brainer inner-circle guy. Career quirk – had most positional value at SS, had most team value with the Yankees, yet never played a single inning at SS for the Yankees. PHoM 2022.

2. Luke Easter – 133.51 PEACE+. mWAR NgL MMP 1948; mWAR All-Star 1b 1948. I’ve been an on-again, off-again FoLE, and this year I’m on-again. I’m looking forward to progrockfan’s research when it gets published to confirm my current evaluation. Conservatively, I think his value, career-wise, is very similar to Eddie Murray. On the high end, he could be closer to Mark McGwire. Either way, it’s HoM in my eyes. PHoM 1960.

3. Heavy Johnson – 122.35 PEACE+. mWAR All-Star RF 1922. Eric’s MLE’s have him as an incredible hitter, even if we have to project his years with the Wreckers (for which he gets a bonus since he played catcher those years). PHoM 1938.

4. Jason Giambi – 121.39 PEACE+. mWAR AL MMP 2000; mWAR All-Star 1b 2000-2001. Giambi’s placement is a result of my peak-heavy system. From 1999 to 2005 he had 6.1, 8.4, 9.8, 7.6, 5.3, .1 (injured), and 5.0 mWAR. These years alone get him to 97% of my borderline. Also aided by the 2000’s AL being a low standard deviation era for hitters in my system. PHoM 2020.

5. Sammy Sosa – 120.63 PEACE+. mWAR All-Star RF 1998, 2001. Another relatively peak-heavy case. PHoM 2020.

6. Lance Berkman – 118.74 PEACE+. Never the best player in his league, or even at his position in any given year, but between 2001 and 2011, he had 7 years over 5.0 mWAR and only one season below 3.1. Over the line even before adding in his all-time great post-season bonus. PHoM 2021.

7. Babe Adams – 115.80 PEACE+. mWAR NL MMPitcher 1913; mWAR All-Star P 1913. Extremely unusual career arc, but I have him as 4th best NL deadball pitcher behind Pete, Christy, and Mordecai (and ahead of HoMer Iron Joe). PHoM 1942.

8. Kevin Appier – 115.57 PEACE+. mWAR MMPItcher/AL MMP 1993; mWAR All-Star 1992-1993. Overshadowed not only by contemporary inner-circle pitchers, but by a number over other no-brainer selections. But Appier had a pretty good peak himself, with 6 straight years of at least 5.4 mWAR from 1992-1997. PHoM 2009.

9. Dizzy Dean – 115.46 PEACE+. mWAR MMP 1934; NL MMPitcher 1935; mWAR All-Star P 1934. Another peak selection for me. Yearly mWAR totals from 1932-1937: 6.3, 6.1, 10.4, 7.7, 9.1, 5.4. PHoM 1949.

10. Don Newcombe – 114.49 PEACE+. mWAR NL MMPItcher 1949, 1959; mWAR All-Star P 1949, 1955-1956, 1959. Newcombe needs a bunch of factors in his favor (integration credit, Korean War credit, low standard deviation era for pitchers), but he warrants them all. Imo, a much better selection than his already elected similar contemporary (Bob Lemon). PHoM 1966.

11. Gene Tenace – 114.14 PEACE+. .400 OBP catchers (even if not full-time) don’t exactly grow on trees, not even in the catcher hey-day of the 1970’s. Would be off-ballot (although still PHoM) if not for post-season bonus. PHoM 1991.

12. Buddy Bell – 114.08 PEACE+. Outstanding defensive 3b with a few peak offensive years. PHoM 1995

13. Thurman Munson – 113.88 PEACE+. mWAR All-Star C 1973, 1976. Although he was already toward the end of his career, would probably be in both this and the “real” Hall by now if not for his premature death. PHoM 1985.

14. Tommy Bond – 113.82 PEACE+. mWAR MMP 1879; MMPItcher 1878; mWAR All-Star P 1878-1879. Yes, he only had 5 great years, but he was the best pitcher of the late 1870’s (maybe wouldn’t have been if Jim Devlin hadn’t gotten himself banned from baseball).

15. Dwight Gooden – 113.74 PEACE+. mWAR MMP 1985; NL MMPitcher 1984; mWAR All-Star P 1984-1985. Another testament to my peak preferences. Even with Stieb and Saberhagen inducted, we’re still short on 1980’s pitchers (even though it was a down period – and I also have Hershiser just off-ballot). PHoM 2006.

Other Prominent Newbies and Required Disclosures:

16. Al Rosen - PHoM 1964.
17. Orel Hershiser - PHoM 2006.
18. Charlie Smith - PHoM 1968.
19. Gavvy Cravath - PHoM 1926.
20. Eddie Cicotte - PHoM 1927.
21. Charlie Buffinton - PHoM 1928.
22. Tommy John - PHoM 1996.
23. Ron Cey - PHoM 1997.
24. David Ortiz - (109.54) PHoM 2022.
25. Carlos Moran - PHoM 1929.
26. Urban Shocker - PHoM 1976.
27. Vic Willis - (109.04) PHoM 1930.
28. Sal Bando – (108.99) PHoM 1987.
29. Bobby Bonds – (107.66) PHoM 1987.
30. Frank Chance - PHoM 1986.
31. Dolf Luque - PHoM 2003.
(Jeff Kent)
32. Andy Pettitte – (106.34) PHoM 2022.
33. Bobby Abreu – (106.24) Likely PHoM 2023.
34. John Olerud - PHoM 2012.
35. Cesar Cedeno - PHoM 2005.
36. Ned Williamson - PHoM 2008.
39. David Wright (105.50).
56. Wally Schang – (100.36) He was high on my ballot last year. The integration penalty really hurt him, as did my increased reliance on seasonal performance. Schang has very good career mWAA number, but a lot of that is due to a long career and is hindered by not getting a large number of PAs each season. I would still be comfortable with him in my PHoM

76. Ben Taylor – (88.74) Hurt by the integration adjustments and not very peaky.
   31. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 05, 2022 at 03:11 PM (#6059753)
124th consecutive ballot since our inaugural election of 1898 for me.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Alex Rodriguez-SS/3B (n/a): Inner circle all the way - one of the easiest top picks for me ever.

2) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (3): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

3) Lance Berkman-1B/LF/RF/CF/DH (4): Best hitter on my ballot.

4) Andy Pettite-P (5): More career than quality, but that's okay.

5) Bobby Abreau-RF/DH/LF (6): My pick for the best of last year's newbies not named Jeter.

6) Jason Giambi-1B/DH (8): The best hitter of last year's newbies, but not a lot of defensive value.
78) Mark Buehrle-P (n/a): From a weak class, IMO, he's the only one worthy.

8) Lee Smith-RP (9): Having his career occur during a major rethinking of his position really distorts his true value, IMO. All things equal, Gossage was better, but not that much better. Never the best for any one season, but consistently among the best for many a year.

9) Billy Wagner-RP (10): Funny, but I thought I would have Hoffman a few years back here instead (and higher than Smith). Yet... that dominance more than makes up for the number of career innings.

10) Bucky Walters-P (11): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Even with a defense adjustment, he stands out. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

11) Mickey Welch-P (12): Like the hurlers of the 1970s, the generation from the 1880s was rich in talent. On that note, Welch deserves a HoM nod. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

12) Vic Willis-P (13): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

13) Gavvy Cravath-RF (14): I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11 (not full credit for '08, since he did play some in the majors that year). Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

14) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (n15): Best third baseman of the Forties. The bridge between the Jimmy Collins-Pie Traynor types and the later ones that didn't have the same defensive responsibilities. He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career when compared to other third basemen throughout history. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

15) David Wright-3B (n/a): Thought he was going to be a slam dunk for the HoM at one time, but injuries really hurt his chances. Still, maybe he will make it in the future.

As for the other newbies, the only other one that I'm still considering is David Ortiz.

Sammy, Bell, Schang, and Bonds weren't that far away from making my ballot.
   32. bachslunch Posted: January 05, 2022 at 08:31 PM (#6059833)
I can't post to the 2022 discussion thread, so I'll mention it here.

The only eligible ballot left at this point there that is not posted here is by Mark A Shirk. Between the information on posts 275 and 281 on the 2022 discussion thread, it looks viable and could be brought here before the deadline if need be.
   33. Chris Cobb Posted: January 05, 2022 at 09:09 PM (#6059841)
I've just taken a look at Mark's ballot, and I am not sure it works. He has both Andruw Jones and Todd Helton on the preliminary ballot, and while his comment in 281 indicates that Bobby Bonds would come onto the ballot in slot 15 since Helton has been elected, he would need a second replacement to come in onto the bottom of the ballot to take Jones' place for the ballot to be complete. My sense would be that a ballot containing only 14 names wouldn't be viable. If there's precedent for ballots that are short a player being accepted, I'd be fine with it, of course, but I am not aware of any.

I hope Mark will see these comments and post a revised ballot with a 15th name!
   34. Jaack Posted: January 05, 2022 at 09:18 PM (#6059842)
It appears Mark would replace Andruw with David Wright in the number 2 slot based on his comments in 281.

I'm fine with accepting the ballot with Wright 2nd and Bonds 15th - unless another voter comes along before the deadline, it wouldn't affect the results any.
   35. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: January 05, 2022 at 10:36 PM (#6059856)
Hey everybody! Here’s my ballot. Nearly a day early. Sorry for not being involved in the discussions. It’s just been a crazy busy time. I just don’t have the cycles, as much as I’d love to participate more and I cannot thank those who are running this now enough.

Rank - Player - Pos - Last Year

1. Alex Rodriguez SS/3B (n/e) - Giant “duh” here. Should be unanimous, an all-time great, probably the #2 SS of all time.

2. Bobby Abreu RF (1) - #20 RF according to JAWS. Criminally underrated when active. Every bit as good as Vlad or Winfield, an easy #2

3. Ben Taylor 1B (2) Moved him up in 2019 based on Dr. C's newish translations. No reason to move him down.

4. Phil Rizzuto SS (3) I think Rizzuto deserves more war credit than nearly anyone, short of the guys like Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio. He lost his age 25-27 seasons and his age 28 was marred by his recovery from malaria. He was a 4.5, 5.7, 4.1 WAR player at ages 23-24, 29. He was a 6.7 WAR player at age 32 and a 5.3 WAR player at age 34. Fill in the blanks with 5.7, 6.0, 6.3 and 4.4 WAR seasons and he’s where he should be, IMO.

5. Thurman Munson C (4) bWAR likes him more than I realized, my catcher bonus pushes him higher. It really is a heckuva career. He was an outstanding player.

6. Jorge Posada C (5) Comparing Posada with Bill Freehan, Posada played about half a season more, with a career 121 OPS+, including a .374 OBP. He is one of the greatest hitting catchers of all time. Freehan posted a 112 OPS+. Of course Freehan closes the gap with better defense. DanR’s WAR likes Posada a little better than Freehan, but they are very similar. I cannot see any way that one should be in while the other is out.

7. Wally Schang C (7) Easy to forget (or not know) that he played in 32 World Series games. He won World Series with 3 different teams over a 10-year period. He played very well too, hitting .287/.362/.404 in those games. He hit .357, .444 and .318 in the three wins.

8. Vic Willis SP (8) bWAR loves him. Especially when you adjust for season length. He was an awful hitter. Loses a 5.25 WAR season.

9. Jack Quinn SP (9) He adjusts really well. His missing 1916-18 seasons in the PCL boost him. He also pitched 800 relief innings in his career with a leverage index of 1.26.

10. Urban Shocker SP (10) Vaulted in my 1981 rankings, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. Gains from his hitting too. As much as Willis loses.

11. Andy Pettitte SP (12) came out *much* better than I thought he would. The post-season performances were sometimes great. He’s kind of got an Early Wynn thing going with the long career, pretty good all of the time. I like that.

12. Tommy John SP (13) I’ve got a lot of pitchers right now. That’s just the way the cookie is crumbling, I would not read too much into it. John gets a little bump for the 1981 strike (he had a very good year). In competition this close, every little bit helps.

13. Sammy Sosa RF (14) Had him as high as 9th. Gave him extra credit for the shortened seasons of 1994-95 and he bumps up some. That’s enough to break his tie with Helton for me (if Helton hadn’t been elected). That is one amazing peak. And 1998 isn’t even his best year. Check out that 2001. It’s just a better career than Ortiz.

14. Bert Campaneris SS (15) Relative to DanR’s WAR bWAR underrates him. Will need to reassess 1970s-80s SS/3B at some point, for now he stays here.

15. Bernie Williams CF (—) I think he’s similar to Jim Wynn in terms of overall value. So does Win Shares. Bernie is a better hitter per WAR. Taking his defense as being very bad puts him a little below Dave Bancroft and Buddy Bell. He is right there with HoMers like John McGraw, Billy Herman and Hughie Jennings. Some of the guys in this range are in, some aren't. He's clearly in the gray area. I am a Yankee fan full disclosure. Questions about his defense - I don't think it was quite as bad as the advanced metrics say - keep his value lower. I'd love to do more digging on this - but I do feel like there are all sorts of goofy things with the fielding numbers for those Yankee teams. That being said, I’m ready to put him on the ballot.

Perpetual eligibility helps here - any bump in Williams' defensive ratings would move him into the low, but clear HoMer range. Based on Mike Emeigh's comment on the 2017 ballot thread, I think this is reasonable and I’m pushing him up some.

   36. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: January 05, 2022 at 10:38 PM (#6059857)
Joe's ballot part 2, electric boogaloo:

David Ortiz/Jason Giambi/Lance Berkman These guys are a hair behind Sosa. Sosa is a little better career wise, and had a much higher peak than Ortiz or Berkman. Ortiz was excellent in the post season, but I’m keeping him here for now. Giambi was amazing from 2000-02. God was it that long ago?

Mark Buehrle/Tim HudsonThese guys have excellent bWAR (60, 56). Their Win Shares (which I realize are lower than historical for all in his peer group) are similar. Hudson has a better peak. These guys are similar to Orel Hershiser too. But Urban Shocker is similar here, and gets his 1918 war credit to boot. These guys are all pretty close. Pettitte is similar, but has a better peak, and I little more WAR and WS. And a lot of great post-season moments. These guys are all close.


Jimmy Rollins, David Wright, Mark Teixeira, Jake Peavy, Joe Nathan - all really good players. Nathan seems criminally underrated on the all-time great closers list for one thing. Like a hair behind Billy Wagner and I love Billy Wagner. But none of them are really close to this ballot. Lance Berkman in with this bunch too. All really good. The hitters are all about one all-star level season away from being serious contenders.

Required Disclosures:

Buddy Bell 3B He’s pretty close to this ballot. I really need to do some figuring between bWAR and DanR’s WAR for 1970s and 1980s 3B and SS. DanR has him in Tommy Leach/Robin Ventura territory. This will be a 2023 thing. For now I’m splitting the difference.

Bobby Bonds RF I see him as comparable to Joe Medwick or Kiki Cuyler, I’ve got Bonds with. I wasn’t a big fan of Medwick’s selection. He’s just below my in/out line, but it gets crowded just below. Which is why the line is a little above that crowd.

Sal Bando - Using DanR's WAR he winds up in a cohort that includes Harlond Clift, Larry Gardner, Ken Caminiti, Art Devlin. I am not feeling this one at all. It's basically 11 years of very good. He's not close for me.


Brian Giles - underrated.

Gavy Cravath - bWAR with my non-MLB credit has him right on the border. He’s close but for now he’s out. This is more others moving up some than him moving down. But DanR has a higher replacement level too I think. His WAR is a little lower across the board.

Dave Concepcion. Wheras Campaneris gets a bump using DanR WAR over bWAR, Concepcion looks much worse. There is a much bigger drop off for Dave. Need to figure out where that is coming from, but either way he’s off for now.
   37. Mark A Shirk Posted: January 06, 2022 at 11:33 AM (#6059918)
Really glad to be back!

I am a peak value guy first and foremost. I measure peak as value over 'all-star' level, or 5 fWAR. I measure prime as value over 2 fWAR. These are the two most important components of my system, though I also take into account war years, minor league credit, and some other things as well. WAR is the first sorting mechanism, not the decider.

One note: I see that David Wright is listed as eligible even though he played in 2018 and is not on this year's ballot? If he is eligible for us, I would have him in my top 3. Also, I cannot find Andruw Jones in the plaque room nor on last year's list of results. Am I missing something? Same thing with Rap Dixon.

1) Alex Rodriguez - Arguably best SS and/or 3B of all time (no lower than 2 in each)

2) David Wright – Really great player who could do just about anything. Certainly over the line despite a shortish career due to injuries.
3) Heavy Johnson – Really great player whose record is scant because he played with the Wreckers prior to NNL and with semipro teams afterward. Still, my 7th best RF of all time.

4) Sammy Sosa - Really high peak, I even hear he hit some HRs here and there.

5) Lance Berkman - An MVP caliber player 2000-4, 2006, and 2008 with some other good years sprinkled in.

6) Chino Smith – An incredible player before cancer took him. For a peak guy like me what he did was more than enough.

7) Hurley McNair – RF is filled with NeL guys we have not elected, though new MLE data has brought that out. Another great Ofer who was a perennial All-Star and even MVP candidate at his best.

8) Sal Bando - He could do just about everything

9) Thurman Munson - Let's say he doesn't get on that plane and has 5-6 average seasons. Would that really make him more meritorious?

10) Jorge Posada - Great player, his only real downside is framing. I am not sure what to do with framing entirely but I am skeptical of the size of the impact.

11) Al Rosen - for 4 years, he was just about as good as any 3B ever. He has a case for minor league credit as well as war credit, which delayed his career by 3 years.

12) Elston Howard - Everything was set against him. He was black and played for an organization hesitant to break their color line, he missed two years for Korea, and then he sat behind Yogi with a manager (stengel) who loved to platoon. He finally gest his chance in his age 32 season and he has a four year run better than most we have elected.

13) Brian Giles - Underrated, his play from 2000-2005 or was really, really good.

14) Cesar Cedeno - Most remember the supposedly wasted talent or his 1985, but he did enough in the first half of his career to merit induction for me

15) Robin Ventura - Ventura could do a bit of everything but did nothing SUPER well. However, he was basically an all-star caliber player every year from 1991 to 1999 (barring his injury riddled 1997).

Just Missed:
16) Nomar Garciaparra - From 1997 to 2003 Nomar was as good or better than the other members of the Holy Trinity of SSs. Obviously went downhill from there but his peak warrants inclusion.
17) Bobby Bonds – Really close to Nomar and Ventura. A really good player overshadowed by some personal problems and continual comparison to Willie Mays. 6 5+ WAR seasons, 3 more with 4+ WAR.

Notable Newbies:
Mark Teixeira - He falls just short, probably needed a few more good years
David Ortiz - I have him ranked 43th at 1B, a few spots below Teixeira (39). Its hard for a DH to rack up value and Ortiz was more a very good player than a great one
Jimmy Rollins - Not to far from my PHOM, but also not too close to this ballot. A really good player that falls just short.
Carl Crawford - If his Boston contract had gone as it was supposed to, I would probably be voting for him.
Pitchers' aren't hat interesting, though I am intrigued by Lincecum and Peavy. Relievers are not my cup of tea, though just don't provide enough value.

Way too many guys in my PHOM to list here but Gene Tenace, Bobby Bonds, Dave Bancroft, John Olerud, Darrell Porter, Jason Kendall, Dave Parker, and Willie Davis were all pretty close to this list. I am pretty close to thinking that Jim Gilliam deserves election based on his time with the Baltimore Elite Giants. Not sure if it gets him to my top 15, but I am pretty interested in him. Finally, I have taken Rap Dixon off but he is still ranked pretty high. I think MLEs are underrating him, deserving of induction but not top 15.

Obligatory inclusions:
Pettitte - I think he belongs in the HOM but probably ranks around number 20-25 for me.

Buddy Bell - Belong in the HOM in the 20-25 range for me. not ranked because he has a low peak vs. the other candidates. But worthy of induction

Wally Schang - Best case for him is top catcher 1900-1930 or so (though I prefer Bresnahan) but he was never a star player, just an above average one for a long time

Vic Willis - Decent pitcher for a while but never a great one and his career wasn't that long. A bit of a tweener

Ben Taylor - Not the best NeL guy that hasn't been elected, long time 1B but never a great player. A Mickey Vernon type.

   38. Esteban Rivera Posted: January 06, 2022 at 03:17 PM (#6059980)
2022 Ballot:

I basically look at pretty much all of the systems that are out there and try to work a consensus from there based on weighing peak, prime and career. Have made some adjustments due to the segregation penalty discussion (it makes sense to me in terms of trying to find a rank order). Here goes my best attempt for now.

1. Alex Rodriguez – Clear top of the ballot newcomer.

2. Sammy Sosa – Drops one spot from last year.

3. Thurman Munson – Tops my catcher consideration list and with adjustments makes it onto the ballot.

4. Sal Bando – The top third basemen by this year’s assessment.

5. Don Newcombe – After going over and reworking the different types of credit I give to the players in my consideration set, Newcombe slots here.

6. Vic Willis –Falls a bit this year taking note of the discussions about the segregation penalty but still see him as ballot worthy.

7. Tommy Bond – His dominance during his time places him on the ballot, falls a bit this year as well due to the segregation penalty discussion.

8. Bernie Williams- Still going with Bernie as my top centerfielder and makes my top 15.

9. Andy Pettitte – Have him as the best candidate of the Pettitte-Hudson-Buehrle trio.

10. Tony Perez – Perez tends to do better on most of the other systems that are not rWAR and is also a peak/prime third basemen. In the end, still feel more comfortable placing Perez on top of my first base pile.

11. Phil Rizzuto – Adjustments for war credit get him here.

12. David Ortiz – Surprised me but this is where he ends up after the assessment.

13. Urban Shocker – Even with a slight downgrade due to segregation penalty discussion, edges ahead of other candidates when adjusting for WW1 seasons.

14. Bobby Bonds – Finally cracks my ballot after being just under for a few years.

15. Bob Johnson – Even with a segregation penalty, PCL credit gets him over the others for the last ballot spot.

Required comments:

Bobby Abreu – Have him behind Sosa and Bonds in my right field order, just misses my ballot this time.

Wally Schang – Still a viable candidate for me but adding peak and prime does lower his placement a bit for me and is off ballot for now.

Buddy Bell – What holds me up on voting for Bell is that his best seasons are his age 27 to 32 seasons and all coincide with his run with the Rangers. These are driven by Rfield values that are all higher than his highest value in prior seasons with Cleveland and those values immediately drop once he leaves Texas (although that may also be related with age but in his age 33 split season where he leaves Texas he is 7 with Tx and -5 in Cincinnati). It could be he just was even better as a fielder while in Texas, but if this were offensive value one would think that a park effect may be in play. Until I reconcile this, I don’t feel comfortable putting him on my ballot yet.

Lance Berkman – Just behind Bob Johnson in my left field pecking order and may make my ballot next time.

Ben Taylor – Still a viable candidate for me but for now is off ballot.

David Wright – He’s a viable candidate and just may be the second 3B in my pecking order.
   39. James Newburg Posted: January 06, 2022 at 04:24 PM (#6060000)
2022 Hall of Merit Ballot

My ballot is based on Matthew Cornwell's summary of his PARCS-D ratings at Baseball-Fever. At its core, PARCS-D is a score based on adding B-Ref career WAR, career WAA, and all seasonal WAA accrued above 3 in a given year, as well as a cap of -5 WAA that can be accumulated in negative-WAA seasons. Since I think the pennant impact of marginal WAA increases non-linearly, I consider the bonus for seasonal WAA above 3 a quick-and-dirty way of approximating this impact.

From this core, PARCS-D incorporates a variety of adjustments that I agree with, including credit for postseason play and missed time due to military service and labor stoppages. It also includes Negro and Cuban League players based on Eric Chalek's MLEs.

Players with a PARCS-D of 100 or above are personal Hall-of-Famers, according to Cornwell.

My consideration set includes every player who appeared on a ballot in the 2021 HOM election and newly eligible players for 2022.

1. I replace PARCS-D postseason credit with championship WPA (cWPA) in playoff games, multiplied by 20 to scale it to regular-season WAA. This multiplier is based on simulated data from a theoretical MLB where 16 true-talent .500 teams are divided in two leagues and the regular-season pennant winners advance to the World Series. In this format, my simulations find that 1 cWPA is equivalent to adding *at least* 20 regular-season WAA to a random team before the season. The multiplier for pre-1947 White players is 11 (compared to 9 for theoretical cWPA in Negro League championship games) because I believe segregation prevented the World Series from definitively determining the best team in professional baseball.
2. For pre-1947 play, I remove PARCS-D league quality adjustments and add Eric's segregation adjustment of -10 RAA/600 PA or 200 IP simplified to -1 WAR/WAA per 600 PA/200 IP.
3. In cases where Negro and Cuban League players have lower PARCS-D than implied by Eric's MLEs, I use the latter rating instead.
4. For pitchers, I add their career B-Ref WAAadj.
5. I adjust the 59/41 batting/pitching B-Ref WAR split to correspond to the 57/43 split proposed by Tom Tango. To incorporate this, players are given +1 WAR/WAA per 2150 IP and -1 WAR/WAA per 9250 PA.
6. I remove WPA Clutch from PARCS-D in favor of the Inter-Game and Intra-Game Win Adjustments from Tom Thress' Baseball Player Won-Loss Records, which are then scaled to Inter-Game and Intra-Game WAA and multiplied by 2.
7. In cases where a player lacks data for computing an adjustment, they are credited with the average score for that adjustment.
8. In keeping with Cornwell, I also incorporate a subjective adjustment with a 16-point range (though mine is +/-8). Where I make a subjective adjustment, I'll try to substantiate it.


1. Alex Rodriguez (249 points) - Inner-circle great. If he saw my ballot, he'd be happy to see his lead over 2nd place was even.

2. Thurman Munson (129) - Terrific player at a position where the HOM is underrepresented. Tough, durable, and performed when it counted.

3. Andy Pettitte (125) - Includes +8 subjective adjustment because I'm persuaded by Sam Miller's argument that the mid-1990s were an especially difficult time for pitchers to develop. The game suddenly looked different from the one young pitchers had been playing, as innings became much more stressful due to booming offense at the same time that teams were also increasingly valuing velocity. It was a great recipe for pitchers to snap something in their arms and sports medicine needed years to catch up. Pettitte should be credited for not breaking. suddenly became more stressful and it took sports medicine needed to catch up.

4. Lance Berkman (125) - "Fat Elvis" is a less sexy name than "Big Papi", but he comes out ahead here because of a truly massive postseason career.

5. Tommy John (120) - As preamble, John would be 11th on my ballot without a +8 subjective adjustment. However, I read the HOM Constitution narrowly; while we are strongly encouraged to focus on a player's statistical record, the Constitution does not altogether forbid other considerations. This isn't something I'd do casually, but I think John's performance after UCL reconstruction should be considered at the margins. On a close ballot, I'm giving him a marginal amount of credit for raising the quality of play at every level of organized baseball due to the part he played in establishing a new treatment for an injury that had previously been career-threatening. While UCL reconstruction almost certainly would have been developed eventually, its development and adoption would have been delayed for some time if John had failed to recover from his procedure.

6. David Ortiz (120) - He'd be right behind Berkman except for the guy who got his elbow rebuilt.

7. Willie Davis (118)

8. John Olerud (115)

9. Orel Hershiser (111)

10. Phil Rizzuto (111) - War credit and great clutch stats are enough to overcome a modest segregation adjustment. Could slide next year as I incorporate the segregation adjustment for the early integration period, especially if it is primarily applied to the American League.

11. Sal Bando (110) - Subjective adjustment of -8 because I suspect B-Ref WAR overvalues 3B relative to SS during this era.

12. Dwight Gooden (109)

13. Don Newcombe (109) - Subjective adjustment of +1 to place a 5th pitcher on my ballot.

14. Jim Sundberg (109) - Subjective adjustment of +2 to pull a C out from the grab bag of bats near the back of my ballot.

15. Bobby Abreu (109) - Subjective adjustment of +6 because his value profile makes me more confident in his ballot-worthiness than the other bats around him (Cruz, Sosa, Bonds, Puckett, Perez).

16. Sammy Sosa (109) - +3 subjective adjustment
17. Jose Cruz (109)
18. Robin Ventura (108)
19. Dizzy Dean (107)
20. Jack Morris (107)

21. Luke Easter (107) - +8 subjective adjustment
22. Bobby Bonds (106)
23. Buddy Bell (105) - Gets same -8 as Bando for B-Ref 3B/SS positional adjustment.
24. Heavy Johnson (105) - +8 subjective adjustment
25. Kevin Appier (104) - +4 subjective adjustment

26. Roy Oswalt (104)
27. Kirby Puckett (104)
28. Tony Perez (104)
29. Hurley McNair (104) - +8 subjective adjustment
30. Urban Shocker (103)

Top 10 Returnees
72. Wally Schang (88) - segregation adjustment
81. Vic Willis (85) - segregation adjustment
98. Ben Taylor (77) - segregation adjustment
   40. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2022 at 05:00 PM (#6060018)
Election is over - all the prelims are covered by an actual ballot.
   41. cookiedabookie Posted: January 06, 2022 at 05:01 PM (#6060020)
Tabulation sent DL
   42. kcgard2 Posted: January 06, 2022 at 05:12 PM (#6060027)
Also sent
   43. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2022 at 05:24 PM (#6060034)
Thanks to all the counters. I got 3 to match so I posted

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