Balloting is open

Disclosures: I'm keeping things simple and what I believe to be consistent. Am assuming that all the deserving Negro Leaguers are already enshrined, an opinion seemingly held by several in the electorate. Players are ranked by position first using BBRef WAR amounts for the AL, NL, and PL as the sole determining factor. After that, I collect the top non-pitcher candidates at each position and order them as I think best, scattering anywhere from one to three pitchers into each group. The result is a 15 player ballot and 27 ranked off-ballot players, encompassing 10 pitchers and 4 players from other positions. While these are not popular approaches:

-I do not credit or debit for war, injury, illness, postseason play, or minor league service.
-I treat pitchers from all periods equally, but only consider the NL, AL, and PL legitimate. When considering 19th and early 20th century pitchers, I remove NA, AA, UA, and FL totals, with final numbers being approximate.
-I do not give relievers special treatment.

Will boycott 1st year candidates who bet on games, threw games, impeded players of color, and were caught using PEDs post-2005 (Cano, Braun, N. Cruz, Colon).

1. Carlos Beltran. Best WAR for available CFs.
2. Buddy Bell. Best WAR for available 3B.
3. Wally Schang. Best WAR for available Cs.
4. Jim McCormick. Best WAR for available pitchers, even when removing all his UA-earned credit. Short career, but played in NL except for one UA season.
5. Bob Johnson. Best WAR for available LFs.
6. Bobby Bonds. Best WAR for available RFs.
7. John Olerud. Best WAR for available 1B.
8. Tony Phillips. Best WAR for available 2B.
9. Luis Aparicio. Best WAR for available SS.
10. Vic Willis. Good pitcher WAR, best after McCormick.
11. Willie Davis. Second best WAR for available CFs.
12. Sal Bando. Second best WAR at 3B.
13. Joe Tinker. Second best WAR at SS.
14. Mickey Welch. Good pitcher WAR, best after Willis.
15. Tommy John. Good pitcher WAR, best after Welch.

16-42. Gene Tenace, Jose Cruz, Sam Rice, David Ortiz, Buddy Myer, Mark Buehrle, Thurman Munson, Lance Berkman, Bert Campaneris, Eddie Cicotte, Urban Shocker, Robin Ventura, Tony Lazzeri, Tony Perez, Harry Hooper, Johnny Damon, Tim Hudson, Fred McGriff, Chet Lemon, Dave Bancroft, Jack Clark, Chuck Finley, Johnny Evers, Ron Cey, Jorge Posada, Frank Tanana, Luis Gonzalez.

1B. Olerud, Ortiz, Perez, McGriff, Cash, Teixeira, Giambi
2B. Phillips, Myer, Lazzeri, Evers, Pratt, L. Doyle, Gilliam
SS. Aparicio, Tinker, Campaneris, Bancroft, Fregosi, Rollins, Fletcher
3B. Bell, Bando, Ventura, Cey, Harrah, Elliott, D. Wright
LF. B. Johnson, J. Cruz, Berkman, L. Gonzalez, Downing, Veach, Manush
CF. Beltran, W. Davis, Damon, Lemon, Pinson, Cedeno, Puckett
RF. Bonds, S. Rice, Hooper, J. Clark, Giles, Cuyler, C. Klein
C. Schang, Tenace, Munson, Posada, Kendall, D. Porter, Sundberg
P. McCormick, Willis, M. Welch, John, Buehrle, Cicotte, Shocker, Hudson, Finley, Tanana, Whitney, Hershiser, Uhle, J. Powell, Appier, W. Cooper.

All required disclosure players are on ballot or within top 42 except Ben Taylor; am accepting the idea that there are no viable NeL candidates left. Only Beltran makes my ballot among the newcomers.

Jim McCormick

I'm guessing he's been on the ballot for awhile, yes?

2023 Ballot

You will see some particular areas where I am going to differ from group consensus - I think pitchers are quite under-represented in the Hall of Merit. I give war credit and also credit for minor league seasons played at a level that indicates the player would have been above average in the major leagues. I think the consensus right now is to NOT give war credit which is a shame. I use Dan R's standard deviation adjusted WAR (when available). I like the positional average and positional replacement value calculations in his spreadsheet as well. I also believe a season is a season whether 60 games or 162 and adjust shortened seasons to a 162 game baseline. I think we have enough pre-1890 players and generally identified the correct ones.

I look at two main things - value above replacement and value above average. I'm not as interested in a (theoretical) 65 WAR player with 0 WAA as I am with a 55 WAR 25 WAA player. Therefore I zero out seasons at the beginning and end of a player's career where WAA + WAR < 0. I don't care about peak (consecutive or non-consecutive) and it doesn't really enter into my calculations.

I haven't ever boycotted due to steroid usage. I have penalized players who gambled by applying the lifetime ban for the offense to immediately after the time when it occurred.

1) Tommy Bridges - I give war credit for two seasons at the level he was pitching 1941-1945. That gives him roughly 60 WAR and 30 WAA. PHoM 1958.

2) Carlos Beltran - very similar value to Jim Edmonds with Beltran's superior postseason record breaking that tie. PHoM 2023

3) Mark Buehrle - My biases explained above are going to like a guy like this. FIP WAR is going to miss his plus defensive contributions. PHoM 2021.

4) Hilton Smith - adjusted upwards after looking through Dr. C's MLEs for pitchers. He's been on and off my ballot over the years depending on interpretations of the NGL data. PHoM 1987.

5) Bob Johnson - Giving him 1.5 seasons of credit for minor league performance as he was performing at a level above MLB average. I've been voting for Bob Johnson every single year I have participated in
the project. PHoM 1986.

6) Phil Rizzuto - gets 3 full seasons of WWII credit at the level of his average performance from the surrounding 9 seasons. That doesn't give him any extra credit for playing 1946 with malaria. Fantastic fielder with just enough bat. PHoM 1967

7) Urban Shocker - giving him 1/2 season credit for WWI. Good bat for a pitcher helped him in my recalculations. PHoM 1968.

8) Bert Campaneris - If you look at wins above positional average instead of BBREF wins above average you will like 1970s SS more than 1970s 3B. Good fielder and great baserunner - his bat is basically average but his baserunning makes his offensive contribution a positive. PHoM 1991.

9) Kevin Appier - Another pitcher with solid performance above average. PHoM 2009

10) Dave Bancroft - another mostly glove SS with extra credit (50% for 1919). PHoM 1976

11) Tommy John - a compiler with only a few top seasons but does well with STDEV adjustments, postseason bonus. PHoM 1995

12) Roy Oswalt - contemporary of Johan Santana who was a similar high peak, short career pitcher. PHoM 2019

13) Brian Giles - Perhaps the modern day version of Bob Johnson - he was an average contributor right away and provided a ton of value from 2000-2005. Zero out his last season and he's 30WAA. Has an argument for minor league credit but I'm not giving it to him on this placement. PHoM 2020.

14) Bucky Walters - overlooked pitcher from WWII era. Very good hitter for a pitcher which helped him in my re-evaluation. PHoM 1972

15) Ben Taylor - moves down after latest MLE adjustments. He's Rafael Palmeiro of the deadball era. Also compares well to Keith Hernandez. Better than Mule Suttles. The last obvious Negro League candidate. PHoM 1973.

16) Tim Hudson - another pitcher that fits my system well. PHoM 2021
17) Norm Cash - Terrific fielding 1B with a plus bat and one monster season. PHoM 1997
18) Bus Clarkson - Needs credit for NGL, Mexican League and time missed due to the war as well as minor league credit for integration quotas. He's likely an average fielding 3B or below average at SS but the bat is a plus at either position. PHoM 1967
19) Frank Tanana - top ranked player not in my PHoM.
20) Johnny Pesky - 3 seasons WWII credit. PHoM 2005
21) Gavy Cravath - 4 seasons minor league credit. PHoM 1927
22) Jorge Posada - PHoM 2022 - even with the glovework lacking there is too much to like. Postseason bonus helps.
23) Wally Schang - PHoM 1987
24) Don Newcombe - gets 2-1/2 years of war credit for serving 1952-54. Gets 1/2 year of minor league credit for being held back due to integration quotas. Good bat. PHoM 2004.
25) Dave Concepcion

Vladimir Guerrero & Kenny Lofton - in a nod to consensus I'm adding them to my PHoM this year. That makes Will Clark my highest rated inducted player who is not PHoM.

32) David Ortiz - Borderline choice. Unlikely to make my PHoM soon with 9 players ahead of him in line including Ducky Medwick and Will Clark among inducted players.
52) Bobby Bonds
58) Buddy Bell - not much value above 3B positional average
67) Lance Berkman - not quite as good as Chuck Klein. Similar to Jack Clark and Jason Giambi.
72) Thurman Munson - career cut short hurts a lot in these rankings when players are bunched together this tightly. There is not much separation between 40th and 80th.
81) Vic Willis - adjusted for standard deviations he's 46 PWAR and 21 WAA. Terrible hitter.
136) Sal Bando - Concepcion and Campaneris are preferred for 1970s infielders

Mostly just copying over from discussion thread

1. Carlos Beltran – He’s not a hard choice – pretty close to the overall HoM median I think. I have him as the 14th best center fielder ever, between Jim Edmonds and Jimmy Wynn. Good in-game strategist too!
2. Lance Berkman – This looks like it might be his year – definitely the best bat-first player left. Nice prime, no real holes in his game aside from lacking a gentle landing to his career.
3. Tommy John – Unmatched volume with just enough ace-level performance hiding in there to make him interesting.
4. Babe Adams – With proper minor league credit he is in-line, if not better than, a few of the other deadball inductee pitchers.
5. Don Newcombe – Getting the whole picture here is quite important – his case goes well beyond just his pitching for the Dodgers. These guys stuck in the process of integration are some of the most interesting candidates to unravel
6. Bob Johnson – It seems to be a pretty strong consensus at this point that he is the best remaining pre-integration white hitter. The Lance Berkman of his day.
7. Roy Oswalt – I like his top end seasons better than Hudson or Buehrle (although Cliff Lee’s are even better) Very similar to Kevin Appier and Bret Saberhagen, but in an era where this level of workload is a little more impressive.
8. Mickey Lolich – Still my pet candidate. Perhaps someday someone else will vote him with me.
9. Ron Guidry – Dwight Gooden has some support, but I think Guidry is a step above – less wonkyness on the shoulder seasons, and the peak, while less electric perhaps, is just about as good.
10. Orel Hershiser – Not a lot of pitchers left both have a great peak and a semblance of a career matching what Hersh has.
11. Jim Sundberg – I’ve been a little aggressive on projecting his glove, but I’m pretty confident he’s the best defensive catcher available who’s bat wasn’t a black hole.
12. Bobby Bonds – I’ve found myself wishing his peak was a little higher – a lot of seasons where he was the 4th or 5th best player in the league, not a lot of seasons where he had a claim at the top.
13. David Wright – Very short career, but for a while there he was one of the best players in the sport. Oddly feels a little underrated now for being a New York lifer.
14. Tim Hudson – I think this is just what a long career HoM pitcher looks like now.
15. Buddy Bell – I’ve come around here. I’m still skeptical of the positional adjustment for a good chunk of his career, but he’s got an elite glove, good longevity, and enough bat to tie it all together. Much better than Sal Bando.
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16. Bert Campaneris – He’s in a virtual tie with Bell and Hudson, tiebreaker here is that they are more viable candidates right now.
17. Dwight Gooden – One of these years I'm going to bite the bullet here. Odd career, but the peak does a lot of work here.
18. David Ortiz – Between the postseason success and the nice prime, he’s not dissimilar from Lance Berkman, but there’s a big difference between a solid fielding outfielder and a DH
19. Roy White – A nice move up my rankings this year.
20. Robin Ventura – He looks pretty close to me, not significantly worse than Wright. But also not a whole lot better than Matt Williams.
21. Kiki Cuyler – He's pretty well off my ballot at this point. Still PHoM, but one of the last guys through the door.
22. Kevin Appier – Similarities to Oswalt are obvious, but there was a lot more HoM level competition pitching in his era than Oswalt's.
23. Jerry Koosman – Honestly, the pitching is good enough for me to consider voting for him, but the batting was just terrible.
24. Willie Davis - I've voted for him in the past - a good case for more Japanese credit probably could get me there again.
25. Cliff Lee - After seeing Dr. C's last comment in the discussion thread, I knocked Heavy Johnson down a peg, which means Lee slots in as the last guy I comment on. Definitely part of the same conversation as Santana, Oswalt, Hudson, and Buehrle.

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33. Thurman Munson – Solid candidate, not outright opposed to him, but I'd like to see how the dust settles on all of the catchers hitting the ballot soon.
62. Vic Willis – Awful bat keeps him from impressing me too much.
73. Sal Bando – Ron Cey is better, and he’s not close to my ballot.
86. Ben Taylor – See discusion in this years' thread for more detail, but to me, his 90th percentile scenario is Bill Terry or John Olerud. More likely, he was somewhere around here.
242. John Lackey – Prototype for a number 2 pitcher in his era.
288. Francisco Rodriguez– He’s not that far below the relievers that are getting Cooperstown attention. Also, he is not Felix Rodriguez.
NR. Matt Cain – Top five favorite player, sad he didn’t stick around long enough to make it into my consideration set.

I use a (very) highly modified version of weighted WAR invented by Adam Darowski. I give conservative credit for time missed for war service, strikes, or minor league entrapment. I've tweaked it so that my stat is amenable to peak-heavy candidates and long-career candidates (that have at least some peak...) and in general any way of accruing value is good. The primary underlying stats are bWAR and fWAR, WAA, and per unit playing time values, with minimal consideration of parc-d and other systems (mainly where systems have big outlier disagreements that might cause me to adjust a tiny bit in some direction). The shorthand for my uberstat is roughly 400 = inner circle all time, 300 = no doubt HOM, 250 = comfortable HOM, 210 = likely HOM, 190 = worthy HOM but voters will be split, 175 = HOM borderline, 165 = below HOM threshold but on rare occasion players in this range will get elected. Below 150 is not a serious candidate or would require extreme extra credit for extrapolation or narrative or some other factors than documented play.

1) Carlos Beltrán (253) - easy headliner of this class in my opinion, and a comfortable HOM player. 69 WAR, 33 WAA, great basestealing efficiency, very good defense, long career, good peak. I don't see anything not to like.
2) Buddy Bell (216) - long career with consistently excellent defense, above average bat. Perhaps never a major peak with the bat, though the strike hit in the midst one of his finest seasons.
3) Sal Bando (215) - halving the 3B position adjustment in the 60s and 70s moved Bando one point behind Bell. A notably better hitter with still good defense, he didn't have Bell's longevity, but the two are very similar on final value in my estimation.
4) Tommy John (212) - Obviously I think we've been missing the boat on John. Just about every system is more bullish than bWAR here, and I think a good chunk of voters stop there.
5) Bobby Bonds (205) - As mentioned in the discussion, I think there were at least half a dozen prior elections where Bonds was the best available candidate.
6) Lance Berkman (200) - short career, but the bat was hefty - 144 wRC+ - and surprisingly decent baserunning and very strong postseason performer as well.
7) Roy Oswalt (196) - Santana Lite, Oswalt also had a shortish career but burned very bright. ERA and FIP were 21% and 22% better than league for his career, which is exceptional.
8) Brian Giles (194) - this placement is without any minor league credit. Have to admit Giles didn't *feel* like a HOM guy during his career, but the numbers are all around strong. If he hadn't had the late start, I think he'd have the bulk for people to really notice his case, an unfortunate break for him.
9) Robin Ventura (191) - Very strong defender, consistently above average bat, not a negative on baserunning or other small things. I'm thinking maybe solid, well-balanced 3B play, especially if defense is a good part of it, makes for underrated candidacies.
10) Kevin Appier (190) - My pet candidate, Appier was underappreciated for so long during his career thanks to pitching for those terrible Royals teams. Appier has a really strong peak - voters who favor that should really have Appier higher on their lists.
11) Chuck Finley (188) - I don't have a lot to say about Finley, he was always recognized as a solid pitcher, long career, maybe a bit underappreciated in his time. ERA and FIP 12-13% better than league over 3200 innings is a good way to accrue a lot of value though.
12) Bob Johnson (187) - all around strong performer, time for him to move to HOM. I may re-evaluate whether he's worthy of more minor league credit than I currently give him.
13) John Olerud (184) - consistently very good bat (but in this case also with some strong peak seasons), above average to very good defense, another guy in the mold that seems to be underrated perhaps.
14) Ron Cey (184) - Cey had moved off my ballot the previous few years, and I didn't think he was likely to get back on, but revisions and some down classes brought him back.
15) Chet Lemon (184) - Another one with a very good (sometimes excellent) bat, consistently good to very good defense, but underappreciated. The bat lacked HR power, the batting averages were lackluster (in the second half of his career at least), walks - the things that aren't flashy.

16) David Wright
-- Willard Brown --
17) Mickey Lolich
18) Jerry Koosman
19) Cliff Lee
20) Mark Buehrle
21) Cesar Cedeño
22) Dwight Gooden
23) Sam McDowell
24) Jason Giambi
25) Mark Langston

Required disclosures
47) Thurman Munson (161) - career was too short to get to HOM ballot territory. I don't think he had much left, but the misfortune is that we'll never know.
65) Vic Willis (153) - bWAR is perhaps the kindest system, hitting was bad, degree of reliance on defense is pause-worthy, era is well over-represented, I'm not a big fan of this candidacy.
66) David Ortiz (153) - the prime example of a guy who feels great for HOF (all that narrative, all the gaudy glamour stats!) but was a big negative in all the other areas so his value was just less than the feel of it? Somehow I wouldn't be opposed to his induction.
74) Ben Taylor (150) - we've had so much discussion of Ben Taylor. Konetchy is a good straight comp, Mark Grace a good low end comp, is where I fall at the end of the day.
155) Wally Schang (122) - not required (but will probably be most years). Clearly I'm not on board this case with basically no peak, little longevity, from an over-represented era (but potentially under-represented position). Too much non-catcher playing time for a career this short and flat also.

ARod would get added to the boycott list if CF were writing that comment today.

This ballot is based on rankings produced by a combination of my WAR-with-lots-of-adjustments-for-all-kinds-of-sh*t, MLEs, belief in fairness to positions, and constitutional mandate to be fair to all eras. IMO, we are missing some modern players and have an overabundance of 19th Century and pre-war guys. But at this point, we're slicing the hairs awfully thinly, so in many ways it's a bit of a petal-plucking exercise. On any day of any week of any year, I might feel differently about the precise placement of anyone after my #9, and probably everyone above that too. I dunno...giving it my best is going to have to good enough!

1) Carlos Beltran: Clearly the best player on the board, not only because he ranks mostly among all available players at their respective positions but because he played more recently when talent has become increasingly compressed.
2) Buddy Bell: He's the second-highest ranked position player relative to position on my board, and I'm with the consensus that believes he's overdue.
3) Kevin Appier: Highest rated pitcher on my board. This one has...less consensus.
4) George Scales: He has leapt up based on updated but unpublished MLEs. Sorry to keep you in the dark, but I'm not through testing yet. This might well be a conservative placement if early results are accurate.
5) Tim Hudson: Appier, Hudson, Finley, Buehrle, Hershiser, and Oswalt all rank in a bunch for me. All overlooked, IMO, due to the influence of usage patterns.
6) Chuck Finley
7) Mark Buehrle
8) Thurman Munson: What if he was Thurman Munster? Anyway, IMO, long overdue for induction. He may not scream ELECT ME on first glance but his positional ranking (17th for me, in/out at 23rd)) says a lot about the perceptions created by his untimely, likely fiery, demise. His peak is actually quite good for a catcher, such that hang around time wouldn't have made a great deal of difference for me. Maybe he'd be 16 instead of 17?
9) Bobby Bonds: He's cruising toward HOM-bronze and it's well deserved. Actually, he and Beltran have a lot in common, and had the Giants not had Willie Mays and then Garry Maddox around, maybe he'd have been a CF too.
10) Roy White: Slotting him lower than my positional rankings suggest because a) LF seems a lot shallower than other positions and b) he owes much of this ranking to an outlying DRA evaluation. I'm always a little leery of outliers.
11) Tony Phillips: This is his ranking purely on what he did. I could've ranked him higher because I suspect his flexibility probably earned his teams as many as five additional wins simply due to the ability to gain the platoon advantage.
12) Jose Cruz: Same thing as White.
13) Albert Belle: My rankings are tilting more modern nowadays, so he appears for the first time. Just don't visit his house on Halloween.
14) Orel Hershiser
15) Roy Oswalt

Required disclosures:
Sal Bando: He's a few notches down from Bell and not yet close enough to make my ballot.
David Ortiz: He's just a smidgen below my borderline and not yet close to a ballot slot.
Ben Taylor: He's below Ortiz. Updated MLEs don't change my mind.
Vic Willis: I've voted for him before. But the inflationary affect of segregation pushes him below modern candidates for me.
Bob Johnson: Plenty of guys from his time, also subject to segregation inflation.
Tommy John: I'm just not into the long-and-low guys. I do agree with Bill Parcells that the most important ability is availability, but I need some peak too. I rely on BBREF's WAR, and other systems and implementations see him differently. At least if he makes it, I won't slit my throat like if Jim Kaat made it.

I combine four WAR systems with three WAA measurements, and a WAR per PA/IP measurement. I also compare how players did historically and within their position cohort. I do give minor league credit where it's due, as well as war credit. I give a catching bonus to account for the demands of the position and it's impact on ability to create value over a career - this bonus is done to rank catchers at similar points all time as those at similar positional rankings. With all that said, here's my 2023 Hall of Merit ballot:

1. Carlos Beltran, CF, PHOM 2023 - He's the 13th best CF all time in my rankings, and a no-doubter, the only newly eligible player with a shot at the HoM or the HoF.

2. Bob Johnson, LF, PHOM 1963 - With minor league credit, he ranks 11th all time among left fielders for me. Seems like a glaring omission from the HoM, especially given how long he's been eligible.

3. Thurman Munson, C, PHOM 1985 - The 14th best catcher all time in my rankings, another glaring omission at a position that is still underrepresented in the HoM in my opinion.

4. Tim Hudson, SP, PHOM 2021 - I see Don Drysdale, without Drysdale support. He's 51st all time among SP for me, right between HoMers Hal Newhouser and Whitey Ford (Drysdale is 60th). Hopefully he gets some traction on this year's ballot with the continued clearing of the backlog.

5. Bobby Bonds, RF, PHOM 1987 - He's 16th in RF all time for me. Another guy who seems like an easy fit into the HoM.

6. Babe Adams, SP, PHOM 1965 - My 61st best starting pitcher all time, with minor league credit. Top eligible pitcher from the early days of baseball (others deserving that haven't been elected: Shocker, Willis, and Cicotte).

7. Lance Berkman, LF, PHOM 2022 - My 17th ranked LF all time, he looks like an eventual HoM inductee to me. It might take him some time, and for the backlog to clear.

8. Roy Oswalt, SP, PHOM 2022 - My 63rd ranked pitcher all time, sandwiched between HoMer Jim Bunning and the next guy on my ballot.

9. Dwight Gooden, SP, PHOM 2006 - Just behind Oswalt in my all time rankings, both are just outside my top 200 all time (201 and 202 respectively). My system seems to like high quality pitchers with fewer inning than the rest of the electorate here, but Gooden seems like an underrated guy in these elections to me.

10. Jorge Posada, C, PHOM 2021 - My 18th ranked catcher all time, he's an easy HoMer for me. He wasn't great defensively, but few catchers have hit as well as he did, and the Yankees were perennial playoff teams during his time, so he couldn't have been that bad as a catcher (well, ok, his later years he was atrocious).

11. Joe Tinker, SS, PHOM 1926 - The 20th best SS in my rankings, I'm still confused how he hasn't been inducted into the HoM. Maybe just to much Tinker to Evers to Chance backlash? All three have legitimate cases, but Tinker is a no doubter to me.

12. Mark Buehrle, SP, PHOM 2023 - He's 67th all time among pitchers for me, sandwiched between Radbourn, Ferrell, Appier, and Waddell - 3/5 are in the HoM, and I suspect the other two may join eventually.

13. Buddy Bell, 3B, PHOM 1996 - My 19th ranked 3B all time, another easy yes. Even if you discount some of the 3B replacement value, he's in for me.

14. David Wright, 3B, PHOM - Just one spot behind Bell at 20th among 3B. Doesn't get in my PHoM yet due to following actual eligibility, but on track to be a 2026 inductee.

15. David Ortiz, 1B, PHOM 2023 - The #22 1B/DH in my rankings, without postseason boost. Right in between Hernandez and Terry at the position.

Required disclosures:

Sal Bando - Just outside the top 25, in the 26-30 range, PHOM 1987
Vic Willis - in the 35-40 range, PHOM 1927
Ben Taylor - just inside the top 50 on this ballot. I think he belongs (PHOM 2003) as the best first baseman in the 1900-1920 era.

I'm using an average of WAR, WAR7, JAWS and WAA now. Probably not going to be able to tally this year.


1. CF: Carlos Beltran - #11 all time CF. Higher than Doby, Asburn, Dawson, Edmonds, Wynn, Averill, Carey, Roush.

2. SP: Jim McCormick - #5 pre-1892 SP. Higher than Radbourn, Spalding, Rusie, Galvin, Caruthers, Griffith.

3. C: Thurman Munson #13 all time C. Higher than Simmons, Freehan & Bresnahan.

4. C: Gene Tenace #15 all time C, but not 100% C. Higher than Simmons, Freehan & Bresnahan.

5. 3B: Sal Bando #16 all time 3B. Higher than Nettles, Collins, Evans, Hack, McGraw, Groh, and Sutton.

6. 3B: Buddy Bell #17 all time 3B. Just behind Bando.

7. SP: Vic Willis #52 all time SP. Amazing that we have gotten most of the highest ranked pitchers. I have all of the top 75 eligible post-1892 pitchers elected except Willis (52), Shocker (62), Cicotte (69), and Appier (75). Only 7 electees are ranked below 75: Wynn (79), Koufax (86), Ford (96), Pierce (98), Sutton (100) Lemon (107), and Rixey (123).

8. CF: Willie Davis #17 all time CF. We've elected the top 25 CF except Davis, Cedeno (18), Lemon (19), Puckett (22), Lynn (23), and Pinson (24). Higher than Doby, Averill, Carey, Roush, and 19th century players.

9. LF: Lance Berkman - #17 all time LF. We've elected all of the top 25 LF but Berkman, Bob Johnson (20), and Jose Cruz (22). Higher than Stargell and Sheckard.

10. 3B: Robin Ventura #19 all time 3B. Ahead of Collins, Evans, Hack, McGraw, Groh, and Sutton.

11. C: Wally Schang #19 all time C. Not a very high peak. We've elected the top 25 eligible catchers except Tenace, Munson, Schang, Posada, Porter, and Kendall. Only higher than White, Campanella, Bennett.

12. SS: Jim Fregosi #19 all time SS. We've elected the top 20 SS except Fregosi, who doesn't seem to get much love from the electorate. Garciaparra, Bancroft, Tinker and Fletcher are in the top 25.

13. SP: Urban Shocker #62 all time SP. Ahead of contemporaries Faber and Rixey, even ahead of immediate predecessor Brown.

14. RF: Bobby Bonds - #20 all time RF. We've now elected all of the top 25 RF except Bonds.

15. 1B: Ben Taylor - I go back and forth on him, including in this short year



Required Comments
1B: David Ortiz - #28 all time 1B. We've elected the top 25 1B except Olerud, not above any HOMer.
LF: Bob Johnson - #20 all time LF. Probably would be next on the list.
SP: Tommy John - #110 all time SP. Above only Rixey. Above Stargell, Sheckard.

Newbies

Besides Beltran, no others even in top 50 for position.

[if I could get into the HOM ballot discussion thread, I would strongly endorse reading that entire thread. my favorite is Post 31, but I learned a ton from dozens and dozens of others as well.]


2023 ballot - our (and my) 126th since we began this version of the journey in 2003 (real time) with an "1898" ballot. Honored to be "The First Voter" (which is right up there with Delaware being "The First State." or not.).

props to any other remaining "voting Ripkens" as well (I think there are a couple of others left - maybe Grandma Murphy?).

I had the 2022 electees - ARod, Abreu, Sosa, Pettitte - ranked at 1, 12, 14, and 9 respectively on my own ballot.

Have looked through the 2023 Ballot Discussion, and as always some players move a bit in response to the analysis (I hope everyone does this exercise).

Annual fine print:

Overall, I think there is a bit too much slavish devotion in some quarters re an ever-increasing number of acronyms, which are intriguing tools but which still - even now after a number of years - may not yet be sufficiently mature (though they continue to improve).

So my fondness (but not blind allegiance, by any means, especially where durability is an issue) for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check even as fielding issues are quite significant for pitchers/team defenses - and especially for hitters, of course.

I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, and prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long, effective hitting career also works for me. I voted for Joe Jackson on his first try, and Pete Rose, and Mark McGwire. and am voting for A-Rod below - and that pattern will continue re any new steroid/PED/other history's greatest monsters on that front.

All that said...

1. CARLOS BELTRAN - Bestrides the rest of this ballot like a colossus. His 162-G rate numbers - .279-20-99-99-20 - are stellar. But add in a very long career, tremendous defensive value in CF, plus I see him as the best base-stealer in MLB history. I actually wish another legendary player was on the ballot to make my opinion more of a challenge.

2. FRED MCGRIFF – I was easily his biggest backer last year, and was delighted to see him elected to that "other" Hall recently (heh). McGriff 134 OPS+ in 10174 PA to Palmeiro’s 132 in 12046 PA to Sheffield's 140 in 10947 PA - and Berkman's 144 in 7814. I really like Crime Dog's 157-166-153-147-166-143-157 peak from 1998-94, all in 600+ PA or equivalent. Criminally underrated, still, in some quarters. Take another look !

3. LANCE BERKMAN - Fascinating battle with Crime Dog, and Berkman's peak clearly is peakier. But Dog just has too many more PA to miss out in the head-to-head.

4. JORGE POSADA - Sticking with him up high. My team will outhit your team (ballot)!
I know about the defense. I also know about OPS+s of 153-144-139-131-125 and career 121. Either the Yankees would have won 115 games a year (at least) if Posada and Jeter could field, or we may be overrating the cost of Posada's defensive shortcomings. This guy had eight straight seasons of 540+ PA, which is amazing. Like Kent, in some respects.

5. BOB JOHNSON - I like this sort of consistency over a long span, though I'd hardly say he's a 'must-elect.' Interesting discussion in 2020 thread if he got a slight career delay from native American status, and this year re possible minor league credit. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Ralph Kiner. Or McGriff without the tail, offensively. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition; but talk of PCL credit reassures me. Has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than, say, many key holdovers have.

6. BOB ELLIOTT - A lost cause - but he's my lost cause - so I have to keep voting for him as long as I believe. Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B (compare: Ventura never had any that high, Bell had only one higher). Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Joe Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some back in the day. Beats out HOMer Boyer for me and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter. Better hitter than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see those guys' threads for details).

7. TOMMY BRIDGES - Go 8 to 10 seasons deep, and he catches up to peakier rivals (not to mention he deserves WW II credit).

ERA+, full seasons
Pettitte - 177 156 132* 129 112 112 111 111 111 (111) 110 106 104 100 097
Bridges - 146 144 141 140 139 139 137 133 119 118 115 111* 091
KAppier - 179 164 139 137 137 131 123 121 116 113 104 (094)
Hudson - 165 145 138 137* 131 129 129 121 119 113 110 097 092
Buehrle - 146 144 140 130 122 121 121 121 112 112 109 108 100 099 095
ViWillis - 165 154 153 131 128 115 111 109 104 098 096 096 089
Walters - 170 154 146 146 141 127 127 123 120* 107 103 094 092 090

(*asterisks are combining two half-seasons into one figure)

8. TIM HUDSON - Did not see that coming right away, and he maintains my interest. Holds his own in peak and prime against predecessors and doesn't lose much on the back end, ultimately.

9. KEVIN APPIER - "Was blind, but now, I see..." Peakier than Pettitte and THudson, which is not a knock on either of them. reminder that 1994 and 1995 were shortened seasons helped and was even more enthused; but only in top 10 in IP twice (5th and 8th, though in two of his best years for bonus points) slipped him just below the other two on my 2022 ballot.

10. DAVID ORTIZ - 141 OPS+ in 10091 PA (10 more than Abreu). A DH really has to smack that apple to get on a ballot, but he clearly did. I can see this as being too punitive against him. I cannot see how anyone can keep him off their ballot entirely.

11. SAL BANDO - The SS vs 3B discussion on page 1 of the Discussion Thread was fascinating, and ultimately helped the 1970s 3Bs.

12. BUDDY BELL - I once preferred Ron Cey, but that clearly was an overbid. Solid all-around player and 1980-84 peak is a very strong offense-defense case.

13. BEN TAYLOR - Long career, excellent fielder, consistent player. I'm not 100 pct sold on the hitting MLEs, but very good reputation and the reevaluation has made me comfortable enough to put him back on my ballot. The NeL comments overall have me more comfortable that he is the last "missing player" from the era - if there are any.

14. PHIL RIZZUTO - Another one back on my ballot. I'll grant a lot of war credit and stipulate to the great, great fielding. But even 3 war credit years gets him only to 13 main years, and the fielding made him above-average overall but not excellent in most seasons.

15. DON NEWCOMBE – A passionate, detailed Newcombe backer might also get me to move him up someday - there were some efforts on the 2020 chatter in particular. But finds a way back on my ballot in a down year.

MANDATORY MENTIONS who diidn't make my list:

THURMAN MUNSON - Only younger voters who didn't see him play could imagine much more production from this star-crossed C. His body was so broken down that he had just been moved to corner OF for a few games before the crash. As noted in the Discussion Thread, a couple more seasons would have moved the needle very much in his favor. He just doesn't have them - and wouldn't have even without the tragedy.

BOBBY BONDS - 8090 PA, and best OPS+ is 151. A 130 to 143 six other times, which is nice - but the strong prime is just not quite long enough for an OF.

VIC WILLIS - Really got hurt for me when I saw that Tim Hudson and now Kevin Appier were better. Voted for him many times but his competition has gotten tougher.

TOMMY JOHN - Why isn't he in the Hall of FAME? Memorable career and incredible side-story. But for us, I see a SP who only once (at age 36) pitched 200 IP and placed in top 5 in ERA+. Is 74th in "Cy Young Career Shares" - not a great stat but it happens to fit, I think.

OTHERS OF INTEREST

BUCKY WALTERS - Have voted for him often. Seemed to get almost Palmer-like defensive support, without enough super-stats to make that irrelevant. Proved his mettle outside of 'war years.' Bob Lemon-esque, though I wasn't a big fan there.

DAVE CONCEPCION - Peak is as good or better than Nellie Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position, so give Davey bonus points" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. And the good SSs were playing 3B, actually, we are now realizing.

BERT CAMPANERIS - Highly recommend the Discussion Thread comments on him - it might sway you in his favor, which is fine if it does. Part-time 2B-3B with a 101 OPS+ for Yankees at age 41 is irrelevant, but fun. Debuted with Hawk Harrelson and closed with Don Mattingly.

If this thread is locked feel free to post in the discussion thread, the hall of fame tracker thread or send me a ballot by email. I'll get it into this thread.

My 2023 ballot. One big change from my prelim, prompted by the debate here, plus a few ballot-place shifts.

Elect-me slots:

1. Luke Easter. My book Black Stats Matter has a chapter devoted to Easter’s Hall of Fame credentials, titled “The Toughest Case to Prove.” This chapter was motivated by a HoM voter challenging me to defend his case systematically. I won’t enumerate my arguments here, ‘cos I want you to buy my damn book – but I will say that I project Easter at 500-550 home runs with excellent plate discipline. While Easter’s exclusion to this point in time is fully understandable given the fragmentary nature of the proofs for his greatness, I consider him the #1 omission from the ranks of the HoM.

2. Ben Taylor. I still interpret him as the best NgL glove ever at first base – and this in a ground ball-rich offensive environment. .339 career hitter with four titles in walks. By my analysis, an obvious elect-me player and serious HoM omission. I repeat: If you believe George Sisler belongs in the HoM, it's hard to see a coherent argument against Ben Taylor.

3. Bobby Bonds. The more I contemplate this guy, the more I think he deserves induction. His ten 20-20 HR/SB seasons have few historical parallels. I think that he, and not Charlie Hustle, was the rightful 1973 NL MVP: he led the league in runs scored and total bases, hit 39 homers, stole 43 bases at a 72% clip, and led NL rightfielders in putouts, double plays, RF/G, RF/9 and TZR, essentially matching Rose’s performance in left. Only Bobby’s strikeouts, I think, kept him from the contemporary recognition that should rightfully have been his. If Taylor weren’t such an egregious omission, I’d rank Bobby #2.

The rest of the top 15:

4. Carlos Beltran. The debate here has convinced me to place Beltran high on my ballot. Great, steady compiling numbers, superior defense, blistering high-percentage base-stealing, outstanding defense, and great postseason play make him worthy. A decent analogue to Dave Winfield (though ultimately I rate Winfield – and Bonds Sr. – a little bit higher), and easily the star of this year’s crop of new eligibles.

5. Jim Kaat. Pettitte's election implies a standard for HoM starting pitchers well below the one I thought existed – and if you’re gonna vote for Pettitte, it’s hard to see how you can overlook Kaat, who to my mind has a much stronger case. He’s got a longer career, a little bit of black ink (Pettitte has none), and is a spectacular glove – I always thought Maddux was better, but Kaat has to be considered one of the best-fielding pitchers of all time. Kaat also has at least one season (1966) where he was arguably the best pitcher in his league (which seems to mean more to me than to some electors here, but there it is); Pettitte has nothing like that. To my eye, Kaat is clearly qualified for the HoM. (How come a different Jim, and not this guy, gets to be called “Kaat-fish”?)

6. Tommy John. Another Pettitte-type innings eater, but lacking Kaat’s spectacular defense. A good solid postseason pitcher. As with Kaat, I rate John far above Pettitte.

7. Bucky Walters. A rare pure-peak vote from me. Not sure how I missed this guy before. In some respects an analogue to the now-enshrined Johan Santana; Santana has the superior peak, but Walters has more career – not a long career, mind, but damn! Two ERA titles, three titles in wins, three straight years leading in IP, three titles in H/9. Add to that the 1939 MVP and a blistering 1940 World Series, and we have ourselves a Pitcher. One SO title, but generally not a power hurler, which may hurt him in the eyes of some voters; but for me, as long as he got the job done – which he did – then he merits a high slot on my ballot.

8. David Ortiz. I’ve long regarded Edgar Martinez as the best-hitting DH ever, but Ortiz’s post-season numbers are staggering, which really blurs the line for me. He’s got the counting numbers too, plus possibly the best final season in MLB history. I hesitate to put a pure DH in my top ten – but MLB recognizes DH as a legitimate position, and so, therefore, must I.

9. Heavy Johnson. His rate stats are off the charts – but his career is so damn short! Also, he had only one truly great season, 1923, plus one other very high-quality season, 1922, and 100% of his black ink is compressed into those two years. It’s easy to see why a pure peak voter would give him an elect-me slot; I tend to lean more towards career (though there are plenty of peak guys on my ballots historically), and so, while he makes my ballot, he doesn’t merit an elect-me place.

10. Junior Gilliam. I’ve moved him down from my prelim, but he still makes my top 10. A true all-around player, master of multiple defensive positions. Some deep-dive research (which hopefully will appear elsewhere in the fullness of time) has convinced me that Gilliam is in fact the greatest utility player ever, though Tony Phillips definitely says hello.

11. Bob Johnson. Still think he could’ve been a 3000-hit man with the right opportunities. Deserving of substantial MLE credit. I’ve downgraded him somewhat from last year's ballot due to WWII-level competition over the latter portion of his career.

12. Hugh Duffy. I’ve downgraded my trio of “Old Guys” in response to group consensus. Duffy was the greatest defensive outfielder of his time, holds two presumably unbreakable hitting records, and had the finest single postseason of the 19th century in 1892.

13. Kirby Puckett. Five 200-hit seasons, five 420+-putout years in center, a rare right-handed batting title, and spectacular postseason play buy him a lower-rung ballot place. It’s interesting that Minnesota had two players as similar as Puckett and Tony Oliva for the whole of their MLB careers.

14. George Van Haltren. Check out those runs scored totals in consecutive years – 126, 84 (in 92 games), 136, 115, 109, 113, 136, 119, 129, 118, 114. Add to that a .316 average on 2544 hits, a 122 OPS+, a bit of black ink, and a 40-31 pitching record, and you have a guy who will always make my ballot.

15. Ed Williamson. Repeatedly singled out by contemporaries as the great player in 19th century baseball. Not a dominant hitter, but clearly a fabulous defensive third baseman.

Mandatory disclosures and noteworthy players from my research:

Sal Bando and Buddy Bell. Combine Bando’s offense and Bell’s defense into one package and you get an elite, HoM-worthy third baseman. Unfortunately Nature doesn’t work like that, and separately they each fall short for me.

Lance Berkman. Good offense, short career, <2000 hits, never played a key defensive position. With the exception of Dick Allen, his comps are all HoVG-type guys.

Addie Joss. Dominant, but not Koufax dominant; his career is much too short, and that dominance is heavily tempered by the timeline.

Dolf Luque. Possibly worthy, but no room for him on this year’s ballot. His analogue Luis Tiant has been elected, though, and as I rate Luque slightly above Tiant, I struggle to see why Luque draws so little support on the current round of ballots.

Rabbit Maranville and Bill Mazeroski. Just not enough offense to go with those superhuman gloves. As with Luque and Tiant, it wouldn’t offend me if they were eventually elected.

Tony Mullane. A long and interesting career, but not enough dominance for me vis-à-vis his era.

Thurman Munson. Give him four-five more seasons like 1975-76-77 and he makes my ballot. I strongly suspect a Big Apple-induced illusion with respect to his historical reputation.

Tony Phillips. Might well make a future ballot based on his Gilliamesque skill set. (Who knew I’d be able to use the expression “Gilliamesque” outside a discussion on filmmaking or Monty Python?)

Phil Rizzuto. I’ve been overrating the guy, I think, in past elections. Great defense at short, sure, but lots of guys can claim that, and his 1950 MVP probably should’ve gone to Larry Doby. <1600 hits.

Wally Schang. A very high OBP for a catcher, good longevity, good postseason play, but a total lack of black ink. He was a good catcher, but I’m holding out for Joe Mauer.

Vern Stephens. One of the great RBI men at third base. If he’d bounced his hits off anything but the Green Monster, his 1948-49-50 run would probably sway me to place him on ballot.

Vic Willis. Someone’s going to have to explain to me why he rates so highly with some voters. The low-offense context of the 1900s has to be figured into those nice ERAs.

Been lurking for most of the Hall of Merit's history and voting since ballots went annual.

I'm a peak > prime > career voter, that looks at Baseball-Reference, Baseball Gauge, Tom Thress, Matthew Cornwell's PARC-ds, Eric's CHEWS, "clutch" and playoff value, award war credit at surrounding seasons levels, minor league credit where it seems warranted, and have leveraged some of Dan Rosenheck's classic work.

My Ballot:
1 Carlos Beltran - no ban for cheating, sign stealing has been happening since the beginning of time, a clear #1 here as an at worst mid-level HOFer.

2 Lance Berkman - best WPA around, a post-season star.

3 Thurman Munson - peak catcher candidate I think is due.

4 David Ortiz - along with Giambi, the DH/1B penalty is a little strong for my blood, elevates these guys to upper half ballot types.

5 Tommy John - killed by RA/9, Kiko, FIP, clutch/postseason and kcgard reminds you he should be elected/reviewed closely.

6 Tim Hudson - Kiko's stat highlights his ability to be great/leverage his defenders.

7 Jason Giambi - while he gets less bonus than Ortiz from DH penalty being harsh, he has a better peak and clutch scores than Ortiz.

8 Bert Campaneris - B-R WAR is bearish, worthy by Baseball Gauge and Kiko's stat, was an excellent situation player relative to context neutral.

9 Urban Shocker - credit for WWI

10 Sal Bando - biting the bullet here, I had been holding on to Dan R's assessment and keeping him off ballot, but kcgard2's arguments were persuasive to not penalize 3B as much as Rosenheck, as well as Kiko's stat showing him as worthy.

11 Bobby Bonds - every system I look into has him just borderline worthy or with some room to spare, high floor and makes the ballot.

12 George Scales - Eric to release new data in Q1 2023, placing here for the time being, he's always appeared to be a standout hitter, it's a matter of what the park factors are and how adequate he may have been on defense.

13 Bobby Veach - along with Tinker, a DRA/Baseball Gauge darling, seems to have arm value that B-R isn't capturing too.

14 Jim Sundberg - advanced defensive metrics love this guy, his bat was good enough that he's ballot worthy.

15 Joe Tinker - see Veach.

Short:
Buddy Bell - Kiko's stat drops him from an elect me to off the radar, he was bubble or worse from Rosenheck's analysis.

Ben Taylor - Scales has taken the lead for hold-overs among Negro League candidates, peak looks a little light.

Vic Willis - borderline HOMer, his FIP totals are atrocius, and Dimino's PA analysis in the past thought he would be a horrible pick, keeps him off ballot despite the gaudy RA/9 WAR.

Bob Johnson - HOMer for me, but close enough to the border he doesn't make the ballot, even with a bump for MLE credit, would have been elected YEARS ago had the latest WAR's been available, he was truly hurt by Win Shares as the stat du jour in the early days.

Copied directly from the Discussion Thread. For those who don't know, I use my own statistic, Baseball Player Won-Lost records. Given that stat, I tend to like peaks and primes, although I'm kind of "big-tent" in terms of Hall Merit - I try to view a player in that player's most favorable light.

1. Carlos Beltran
2. David Ortiz
3. Tommy John
4. Tim Hudson
5. Vern Stephens
6. Lance Berkman
7. Jason Giambi
8. Wally Schang
9. Darryl Strawberry
10. Urban Shocker
11. Tommy Henrich
12. Toby Harrah
13. Bert Campaneris
14. Dave Concepcion
15. Dizzy Dean

Required disclosures:

Berkman, Bando, Ortiz, and John are on my ballot
Bonds and Johnson are in my top 40, probably in my top 30
Munson is probably to 50 or so; I might be under-rating him
Bell is probably outside my top 200. I've discussed him extensively; my system just isn't a fan.

Willis and Taylor are inadequately handled by my system which isn't an excuse for excluding them (my system is also missing significant portions of the careers of Schang and Shocker and I've voted for Johnny Evers, among others, in the past).

My reading of Dr. C's latest MLEs on Ben Taylor leave him outside of HOM-worthy. But I'm certainly open to being wrong about that.

Vic Willis is the type of pitcher that my system tends to like and I've had him on-ballot in the past. Given the perpetual eligibility and the knowledge that eventually Retrosheet will get back far enough that I will have a better handle on Willis's full career, I feel more confident in the HOM-worthiness of the 15 players that I've listed. But I will certainly re-evaluate Willis's case as I get more data.

I don't think there are any first-year eligibles outside of Beltran who seem worthy of comment (no offense to any of them).

I use Win Shares and BB Ref War as the first filters, with emphasis on career, where a player ranks among his era peers, with big seasons as a boosting factor.

1) CARLOS BELTRAN 70.1 BBref-WAR, 369 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Easy first place on this ballot. In 1999 I would have probably told you Carlos Febles was the better of the Dos Carlos Royals. I still hope Febles gets a managerial job at the MLB level someday.

2) SAL BANDO – 61.6 BBref-WAR, 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
3) DAVID ORTIZ - 55.3 BBref - 316 Win Shares, 1 MVP type season, 6 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Post season accomplishments put him ahead of the players with similar regular season value profiles.

4) LANCE BERKMAN 52.1 BBref-WAR, 313 Win Shares. 4 MVP type seasons, 10 seasons 20+ Win Share season.


5) TOMMY LEACH 46.8 BBref-WAR, 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.

6) JASON GIAMBI 50.5 BWAR, 325 Win Shares. 4 MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. His career value is so much greater than Chance, and he has similar big seasons, so he has to be ahead of him.

7) FRANK CHANCE 45.6 WAR 237 Win Shares – 6 20 win-share seasons, 3 MVP type seasons. I’m a career guy, but this is the peakiest of peak guys.
8) FRED MCGRIFF 52 WAR, 342 Win Shares. 10 seasons 20+ Win Shares. 1 MVP type season. New HOFer last in this group of 1B types due to lack of huge seasons.

9) PHIL RIZZUTO – 40.6 BBref-WAR, 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. With a conservative 60 or so win shares or 9 WAR during World War II, I move him to the top of the middle infielder group. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946. (No extra credit for 1946 – just noting it).
10) BOBBY BONDS 57.7 BBref-WAR, 302 Win Shares – Four 30+ Win Share seasons, at ages 23, 24, 25, and 27. After age 33 Bobby had 7 win shares, Barry had 286. Pete Browning without the fielding problems?

11) BUDDY BELL 66.1 BBref - 301 Win Shares, ZERO MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares.

12) TIM HUDSON 56.5 WAR, 219 Win Shares, 3 20-win share seasons. 2nd 2020 Cy Young ballot.

13) KEVIN APPIER 54.9 WAR, 189 Win Shares, 2 20-win share seasons. 3rd in 1993 Cy Young ballot, but he should have won it.

14) Wally Schang 47.9 BBref - 245 Win Shares, zero MVP type (30 Win Share) seasons, 3 seasons 20+ Win Shares (In 1919 he had 19 Win Shares calling it 20 for short season).
Starts by position - C 1289 (1435 games total at catcher), 163 OF, 54 3b

43 Starts at 3b 1915, OF Starts – 41 in 1915, 62 in 1916, 37 in 1920. Looks like after Mack sold off his stars due to the Federal League he moved Schang around a couple of seasons for whatever reason.

15) TOMMY JOHN 62.1 WAR, 219 Win Shares, 3 20-win share seasons.


Next group of guys off the ballot grouped by position:
Vic Willis, Mark Buehrle, Gene Tenace, Jorge Posada, Wally Schang, Olerude, Norm Cash, Orlando Cepeda, Johnny Evers, Larry Doyle, David Wright, Bob Elliot, Ron Cey, Joe Tinker, Miguel Tejada, Luis Aparicio, Dave Bancroft, Jim Fregosi, Vern Stephens, Ken Williams, Bernie Williams, Bob Johnson, Sam Rice, Luis Gonzalez.

New Players not on ballot:
Other than Beltran, none of these guys seem particularly close. Ellsbury was my favorite player to watch for a couple seasons, fast guys are the best to watch.


Other required notes:
Vic Willis – 1st off ballot pitcher for me, balancing that era versus modern pitchers like Appier and Buehrle is hard.
Ben Taylor – Not enough stick to strongly consider him, but maybe the numbers will change?
Bob Johnson – With the WW2 competition discount he’s just outside the group.
Thurman Munson – see #24 on discussion thread. I have Schang and Posada ahead of him, and possibly others.  

Here is my ballot. I use fWAR and have a peak heavy system with two major inputs (WAR>2 in a given season and WAR>5 in a given season) There are 'subjective' adjustments from there.

1. Carlos Beltran
2. Heavy Johnson - changed from #1 on prelim in response to Eric's warning about future MLEs. Still as a peak guy, he is way over the line.
3. Dale Murphy
4. Hurley McNair
5. Lance Berkman
6. Sam McDowell
7. Leon Day - surprised we haven't elected him yet.
8. Doc Gooden
9. Jason Giambi
10. Sal Bando
11. Buddy Bell
12. Al Rosen
13. Elston Howard - Rosen and Howard are two favorites of mine I have been voting for for years, I would really like to see them climb.
14. Wilbur Wood - this one even surprised me but he was so good in the early 70s. Ranked higher by my system, this is a subjective 'hedge'
15. Nomar Garciaparra - added from Pre-lim as I took out Johan Santana since he was already elected.

Kevin Appier is my top cut.

There are literally 50-60 guys I could support for the Hall of Merit so many of the 'must addresses' are really just guys that I like but not as much as those above. Munson and Bonds were late cuts and are probably ranked around 20th. I think I voted for both last time but I have standardized my rankings in the interim and they dropped a bit. I hope both eventually make the HOM. Willis is just a bit lower than they. Taylor, John, and Johnson are all pretty borderline for me as they were never dominant but as a big hall guy I would put them in HOM. The only one who I don't support is Ortiz. Its just super hard to be a DH and be worthy (Edgar may be the only exception) and he was never dominant. Just a good player for a bit. I have him as my 46th ranked 1B. I am not sure postseason really boosts him over the line (its 400 PA of basically David Ortiz career line).

125th consecutive ballot since our inaugural election of 1898 for me.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he won't make my ballot).

1) Carlos Beltran-CF (n/a): The only one from this class that I see as HoM worthy. He will sail in this year.

2) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (2): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

3) Lance Berkman-1B/LF/RF/CF/DH (3): Best hitter on my ballot.

4) Jason Giambi-1B/DH (6): The second-best hitter, but not a lot of defensive value.

5) Mark Buehrle-P (7): Best pitcher on my ballot.

6) Lee Smith-RP (8): Having his career occur during a major rethinking of his position really distorts his true value, IMO. All things equal, Gossage was better, but not that much better. Never the best for any one season, but consistently among the best for many a year.

7) Billy Wagner-RP (9): Funny, but I thought I would have Hoffman a few years back here instead (and higher than Smith). Yet... that dominance more than makes up for the number of career innings.

8) Bucky Walters-P (10): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Even with a defense adjustment, he stands out. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

9) Mickey Welch-P (11): Like the hurlers of the 1970s, the generation from the 1880s was rich in talent. On that note, Welch deserves a HoM nod. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

10) Vic Willis-P (12): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

11) Gavvy Cravath-RF (13): I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11 (not full credit for '08, since he did play some in the majors that year). Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

12) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (14): Best third baseman of the Forties. The bridge between the Jimmy Collins-Pie Traynor types and the later ones that didn't have the same defensive responsibilities. He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career when compared to other third basemen throughout history. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

13) David Wright-3B (15): Thought he was going to be a slam dunk for the HoM at one time, but injuries really hurt his chances. Still, maybe he will make it in the future.

14) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (n/a): Had been on my ballot for years and back again. "Only" the third best center fielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league center fielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

15) Pie Traynor-3B (n/a): Like Duffy, he's back on my ballot after a few years off. Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith were better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

As for the other newbies, as I pointed out earlier, they fall short.

Bell, Bonds, Munson, Bando, Ortiz, Taylor, Johnson, and John weren't that far away from making my ballot.

Suddenly, I can post on the Ballot Thread! Here is my ballot, my 114th in the history of the Hall of Merit project. For details on the balloted and non-balloted players, see my recent post on the discussion thread.

2023 Ballot Summary

1. Carlos Beltran
2. Buddy Bell
3. Tim Hudson
4. Jason Giambi
5. Bobby Bonds
6. Kevin Appier
7. Brian Giles
8. Lance Berkman
9. Urban Shocker
10. Orel Hershiser
11. Vic Willis
12. Robin Ventura
13. Sal Bando
14. Bucky Walters
15. Babe Adams

David Ortiz -- not quite enough offense (especially peak) to overcome defensive liabilities.

Thurman Munson -- not quite enough value, but close.

Bob Johnson -- has a lower-tier HoM profile in a general context, but reaches that profile in an era extremely advantageous for power hitters, so in context he falls a bit short. Better than Medwick and Averill, though.

Tommy John -- My system sees him as the 14th-best pitcher of the 1970s. Not an HoM profile.

Ben Taylor -- Detailed MLEs place him behind McNair and Pettus among NeL position-player contemporaries and closer to Konetchy than to Sisler among NL-AL first base comparables. If the conversion factors on my MLEs are a bit low (and I started rather conservatively), he could get close to the in-out line, but Pettus and McNair would rise as well with higher conversion factors, so he would still be a ways from the top of his in-decade list.

2023 ballot

I was hoping to upgrade my rating system this year, but it didn’t get done, so I’m sticking with the same (rWAR-based) system I used last year. I adjust for season length, military service, league quality, and post-season performance, give minor league credit for seasons that would be above major league average, and judgmentally adjusts some of rWAR’s positional factors for certain time periods. I’m a peak/prime voter and pretty much ignore seasons that are average or below.

1. Carlos Beltrán. Easy # 1. In 65 post-season games, he had a 1.021 OPS.
2. Bobby Bonds. Over the 11-year period from 1969 to 1979, he averaged 149 games a year with a 132 OPS+ and 5.0 WAR.
3. Sal Bando. Over the 10-year period from 1969 to 1978, he averaged 156 games a year with a 127 OPS+ and 5.7 WAR.
4. Buddy Bell. Over the 12-year period from 1973 to 1984, he averaged 4.9 WAR with an outstanding glove.
5. Kevin Appier. Over the 8-year period from 1990 to 1997, he averaged 205 IP with a 140 ERA+.
6. John Olerud. Averaged 4.7 WAR over the 10-year period from 1993 to 2002.
7. Kirby Puckett. Averaged 4.5 WAR over the 10-year period from 1986 to 1995; had a .897 OPS in 24 post-season games.
8. Willie Davis. A great fielder; he struggled as a hitter in what should have been his prime due to the expanded strike zone but still managed to have 7 seasons with at least 4 WAR.
9. Jason Giambi
10. Lance Berkman
11. Bernie Williams
12. Phil Rizzuto. An excellent defensive shortstop. His case depends a lot on war credit; I credit him as about a 5 WAR/yr player for 1943-45.
13. César Cedeño. Didn’t do much after age 29, but he was a fine player before then.
14. Roy Oswalt
15. Mark Teixeira. From 2004 to 2012, he averaged 150 games a year with a 134 OPS+, good fielding, and 5.0 WAR.

Numbers 16 through 20 are David Ortiz, Tim Hudson, Fred McGriff, Thurman Munson, and Chuck Finley.

Required disclosures:

Thuman Munson – just misses my ballot at # 19.

David Ortiz – just misses my ballot at # 16.

Ben Taylor – I have a couple of disagreements with Dr C’s MLEs for Taylor that I describe in detail in my prelim ballot; see # 350 in the discussion thread. Basically, I think the MLEs overvalue the beginning and end of his career. I rank Taylor below several recent first baseman (Olerud, Giambi, Texeira, McGriff), about the same as his near contemporary, Chance, and a little ahead of Konetchy.

Vic Willis – just misses my ballot at # 22.

Bob Johnson – His raw statistics are inflated by weak war-time league quality. He doesn’t do well in my system and is not really close to my ballot.

Tommy John – He pitched for 26 seasons, but in 19 of those seasons, his WAR didn’t exceed 3.0. That’s the kind of career that my system doesn’t think much of.

My 2023 HOM ballot:

1. Carlos Beltran
2. Tommy Bridges
3. Buddy Bell
4. Tim Hudson
5. Bob Johnson
6. Kevin Appier
7. Bobby Bonds
8. Sal Bando
9. John Olerud
10. Urban Shocker
11. Vic Willis
12. Phil Rizzuto
13. Lance Berkman
14. David Wright
15. Thurman Munson

Other returning top ten:
David Ortiz -- around 25
Ben Taylor -- around 50
Tommy John -- around 75

I use BR, FG, and BG WAR, as well as Dr. C's NGL MLE's, and then adjust for war, minor league, racism, etc. Then using Chris Cobb's decade totals (except for 40s and 50s where I don't decrease) I rank players in each decade by tier. Tier 5 is top 10%, the truly elite. Tier 4 is the next 15%, not quite the best but better than your normal HOM. Tier 3 is the next 50%, which is supposed to be your standard HOM that no one would really argue with. Tier 2 is next 15% which represents players that either small-hall or people with different criteria wouldn't necessarily include. Tier 1 is remaining 10% and is for the borderline players. I find it easier to compare across players by only having to compare by tiers, and also illuminating in how WAR ends up spreading out across eras. Note for the Negro League players on my ballot, the tiers listed are as of current numbers, however, I know based on Dr. C's comments that fairly substantial changes will be occurring to those and therefore I am hedging by placing lower/higher than their listed tier based on those comments/uncertainty of their rankings.

1. Carlos Beltran (Tier 3)
The only newcomer anywhere near my ballot, a player who amassed value by being able to do everything on a baseball field except pitch.
2. Kevin Appier (Tier 2)
3. Tim Hudson (Tier 2)
4. Mark Buerhle (Tier 2)
5. Vic Willis (Tier 2)
Four pitchers who at first glance don't compare with their more famous/meritous contemporaries, but who were still great pitchers for their time and deserve to be recognized as such.
6. Dwight Gooden (Tier 2)
The 80s being weird for pitchers, and him having such an unusual career shape, place him below the other Tier 2 pitchers.
7. Don Newcombe (Tier 2)
Lots of adjustments need to be made due to the circumstances of his career to try to best accurately portray his quality, which leads to less comfort in the rankings and so is lower than the other Tier 2 pitchers.
8. George Scales (Tier 1)
9. Hurley McNair (Tier 3)
10. Oscar (Heavy) Johnson (Tier 3)
11. Ben Taylor (Tier 2)
12. Leon Day (Tier 2)
13. Bus Clarkson (Tier 2)
14. Buddy Bell (Tier 1.5 - Tier 2 for 1/2 career in 80s, Tier 1 for 1/2 career in 70s)
His WAR value looks better in a vacuum compared to 70s contemporaries as well as 3B overstatement compared to SS for that era, but ultimately deserving of being in HOM.
15. John Olerud (Tier 1)
I can imagine an alternative universe where he's an iconic star. Big seasons with flashy traditional stats (.363 and .354 batting averages) and advanced stats (seasons over 7 WAR). A two-way player who can hit and field, unlike some of his contemporaries. Flair for fashion with the batting helmet in the field. But we live in a different world, and so he is highly underrated by the normal fan.

Lance Berkman (Tier 1)
Deserving HOM and will probably make my ballot in future if not elected this year.
Bobby Bonds (N/A)
Just missed Tier 1 - ultimately the back-end of the 70s was super difficult to differentiate, so it's not impossible that he could get reevaluated into a tier and on a ballot in the future.
Thurman Munson (N/A)
Same situation as Bonds
Sal Bando (N/A)
Same situation as Bell and Bonds except he's not as good.
David Ortiz (N/A)
Currently not in a Tier but haven't fully worked up the 2010 decade and so he might end up as a Tier 0.5, or could end up as a Tier 1 if I reevaluate the 2000s as he's in the mix for the final spot. I understand and am sympathetic towards the argument for him.
Bob Johnson (N/A)
A guy who could end up being bumped up once new Negro League numbers come out and those players get reevaluated, but I'm wary based on needing good years at normal end of his career during WWII as well as fact that there are lots of other outfielders from 30s and 40s who rank as better.
Tommy John (N/A)
He's a small step behind Bonds and Munson in regards to 70s borderline guys, plus he has the additional hurdle of the fact that there are a lot of more deserving pitchers from the 70s (who we've already elected).

This is Brock Hanke’s ballot. It’s mostly a copy of my 2021 ballot. This is because I did not have time to vote in 2022, and this year, I had a medical problem (scarred lungs) that stole a lot of time from me. By copying a lot, I was able to piece something together. As in 2021, I used the ordinal rankings from the New Historical Baseball Abstract as my guide to older players. I did vote for one newcomer, Carlos Beltran.

I am mostly afraid that I voted for someone who got elected in 2022.

So, here’s the Ballot For Tabulation:

1. Dizzy Dean (P25/10)
2. Lou Brock (LF15)
3. Hugh Duffy (CF20)
4. Sal Bando (3B11)
5. Bobby Bonds (RF15)
6. Carlos Beltran
7. Elston Howard (C15)
8. Tony Perez (1B13)
9. Hilton Smith
10. Luis Aparicio (SS13)
11. David Ortiz
12. Al Rosen (3B14)
13. Pie Traynor (3B15) I don’t know how I missed him last year.
14. Don Newcombe (P46/19)
15. Dale Murphy (CF12)

And, here’s the ballot, with comments.

1. Dizzy Dean (25/10) The new method has Dean as the best player not in the HoM at any position, and he is surrounded by Hall members, both above and below him. When you get a guy who is absolutely surrounded by Hall members, including many below him, that’s a mistake. The HoM has made a mistake by not electing Dean, and it shows up here. No, Dizzy was not as good as Sandy Koufax. But if you pull out your copy of the NHA, you will be surprised by how small a margin that is, among the four categories. Well, if Sandy Koufax is #10 (which he is in the NHA), there is just no way that Dizzy Dean was enough worse to put him out of the HoM.

Things that people don’t seem to know: Dean, according to Win Shares, should have won TWO Cy Youngs, in 1934 AND 1935. No one cares about 1935, but it was the best pitcher season in the NL. Also, Dean had a serious impact on TWO, not one, pennant races. Everyone knows about 1934. But in 1938, as a washed-up spot starter, Dean went 7-0 for the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs won the pennant by three games. If you replace Dean with an average pitcher, much less a replacement one, the Cubs don’t win in 1938.

When you complain about Dean’s career length, you do have a point, but it doesn’t hold up under examination, because his prime isn’t just a one-year wonder. I did note that, while JAWS, which seems to have been designed to give a boost to short-but-brilliant careers, ranks Dean out of the Hall, it ALSO ranks Sandy Koufax as out of the Hall. Several years ago, we had a ballot that asked us to rank all the players in the HoM at that time. I don’t think that Sandy Koufax was scraping the bottom. I do think that the HoM has made a mistake by not electing Dean, and it is the most serious mistake that I’ve found.

2. Lou Brock (LF15) The new method has him as the best LF not in, and doesn’t count postseasons. The only outfielders, at any outfield spot, to outrank Brock in the NHA are Wally Berger (CF13) and Dave Parker (RF14). The next LF after Brock who is not in is Frank Howard (19). Lou Brock’s postseasons will certainly vault him over Berger and Parker. I am composing an essay about several odd places where Lou has been underrated. I will post it up as soon as I get it written. That essay is why I have moved Brock up a couple of spaces. And yes, I am squirmingly aware that I, a Cardinal fan since 1953, now have two Cardinals listed 1 and 2 on my ballot. I’d be too afraid to do that, if it wasn’t the result of a method that does not care who the player played for.

3. Hugh Duffy (CF20) And Duffy as the best 19th century player not yet in.
4. Sal Bando (3B11)
5. Bobby Bonds (RF15)
6. Carlos Beltran – I haven’t much to say. This is pretty much a “feel’s right” placing. I find it hard to compare modern players to the older ones I usually vote for.
7. Elston Howard (C15) No team other than the loaded Yankees could have gotten away with sitting Howard on the bench for that long. He ranks exactly one place lower in the NHA than Thurman Munson. Everyone ranked higher than Munson is already in the HoM. When the rankings are that close, I think I have some freedom to choose. I’d much rather have Howard than Munson. For one thing, I'd make much more use of Elston when he was young.

8. Tony Perez (1B13) I give him a little boost for being able to play 3B, albeit middlingly, for a few years.
9. Hilton Smith I still think that he’s the best NgL pitcher we have not yet voted in.
10. Luis Aparicio (SS13) A surprise from the method, and I’m not a big Aparicio fan, but his defense was really good.
11. David Ortiz – I doubt I know anything that everyone here does not know. As far as I can tell. Getting the Red Sox to acquire Ortiz was the highlight of Bill James’ tenure in Organized Bsseball.
12. Al Rosen (3B14) A very short career, but a great one.
13. Pie Traynor(3B15) I may end up ranking Traynor higher than this, for reasons that are in the Required Disclosure for Buddy Bell, below.
14. Don Newcombe (46/19) Who has been hanging around the ballot for years now.
15. Dale Murphy (CF12) I’ve wondered about Dale for a long time, and the new method says I should stop doing that and vote for him, already.

Required Disclosures:

Bobby Abreu – Not a required disclosure any more. I did an enormous study comparing Lou Brock to Bobby Abreu. My conclusion was that, unless Career Regular Season Accumulated BB-Ref WAR is the ONLY standard you use, there is NO CASE for Abreu over Brock. None at all. Of any kind.

Buddy Bell – The NHA has Bando (11), Rosen (14), Pie Traynor (15), Ron Cey (16) and Bob Elliott (18) all ahead of Bell (19). I think that Traynor is actually underrated, because the NHA does not take into account how well the player played as compared to others at his position at the time. There are only two 3B in the HoM who outrank Traynor and played before him – Jimmy Collins and Home Run Baker. There are good reasons for this. 3B, in early baseball, is hard to separate from the concept “backup shortstop.” Defense meant everything, and when you got a superathlete, who could hit as well as he could field, like George Wright or Honus Wagner, they ended up at SS, not 3B. Traynor did not end up at SS because, when he came up, the Pirates’ incumbent SS starter was Glenn Wright. On almost any other team, Traynor would have been a SS.

Lance Berkman – A very good player, but not, I think, a great one. Just writing this, I realize that Berkman had a balanced skill set. It’s hard to think of any one thing that he did especially well, or especially badly.

Tommy John – A very good pitcher. But, in my opinion, not a better pitcher than Tony Mullane, whom I just dropped off my ballot.

Bob Johnson – In my opinion, the very definition of the borderline between the Hall of Fame’s Outer Circle and the Hall of Very Good’s Inner Circle. I tend to think of hi like I thin of Lance Berkman: A very balance skill set. No one thing stands out.

Jeff Kent - The New Historical Abstract's comment is "One of the best RBI men ever to play second base." I think that about covers it.

Kenny Lofton – I voted for two CF this time, and Wally Berger (13) was not one of them. I do not think that Lofton was quite as good as Berger. He was a very good leadoff man.

Thurmen Munson – About even with Wally Schang.

Johan Santana – Borderline at best, hampered by a shortish career. Santana pitched 2025.2 innings, with an ERA+ of 136. Big Jim McCormick, who gets some votes here, but not enough to be elected, pitched 4275.2 innings, with an ERA+ of 118. Santana’s ERA+ is significantly higher than Jim’s, but Jim pitched over TWICE as many innings. And I didn’t vote for Jim McCormick, either.

Wally Schang – I’ll hurt my head trying to compare Wally to Thurman Munson next year. Then I might vote for one of them.

Sammy Sosa – Of the following four players – Sosa, McGwire, Bonds, and Clemens – only one of them was ever actually caught doing anything that was, at the time, actually illegal. That would be Sosa’s corked bat. Sammy wasn’t great on defense. He didn’t take many walks, especially for a guy who hit that many homers. He didn’t start hitting homers like that until he came to easygoing Wrigley Field. He was a home run powerhouse for a few years in one of the easiest homer ballparks in the game.

Ben Taylor - The hard problem with Ben is that he’s a dead-ball-era first baseman. We have NONE of those in the HoM yet, and nobody really close in the rankings unless you count Frank Chance. I never know how to really evaluate Chance’s career as a Hall candidate. I mean, he never got into as many as 140 games, not even once. About half of his career is as a backup. But, for four years, he was truly great, and very good in a fifth year. As a consequence of the playing time, his Black Ink and various Hall of Fame prediction systems are very bad, for a real candidate. But his five year prime is so good that the NHA has him ranked high. The best DBE 1B in the white majors was probably Ed Konetchy. Dead ball era first base was a far different position than it is now. Everyone bunted all the time, so you didn’t have the great big power bruisers at that spot. You can sell me that Ben Taylor may have been better than Ed Konetchy. You will have a much harder time selling me that Ben Taylor was the best first baseman in all of baseball for a 20-year period, or that he was greater than Frank Chance at his peak. He and Chance have almost opposite career shapes.

Vic Willis – I’ve written about Willis before. I may have him underrated. His career spans a large set of changes is MLB, with team changes mixed in there. It’s hard to get a hold of what he did and did not do. I’ll try to work him up next year.

Final ballot, sorry ballot counters for pushing so close to the end.

2023 ballot – A new no doubter, then various old-timers that have been knocking on the HOM door (please someone answer!).

Methodology in brief: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WAR, OPS+/ERA+. Ratings include positional adjustments, additions to one’s playing record for minor league service, war, and NeL credit and for our real oldtimers some contemporary opinion thrown in. The HOM discussion threads are gold, I appreciate all who have devoted much time to their chosen research.

The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types. Last year’s placement is in parenthesis.

1. Carlos Beltran (new). Top shelf CF with 9 All-Star Games and 3 Gold Gloves. 4th all-time in SB%, successful over 86% of the time while swiping 312 bases. Post season slashline: .307/.412/.609 in 65 games, widely known for called 3rd strike taken vs Adam Wainwright to end the Mets/Cardinals 2006 NLCS.

2. Phil Rizzuto (2). Holy Yankee shortstops Batman!! I’ve done my minor league & WWII absence calibration so Scooter scoots to ballot position. Glove first but the offense during prime years was nothing to sneeze at either.

3. Lance Berkman (3). He’s the type of extended prime player my system tends to favor. Bob Johnson of his era, likely to have the same fate where 30 years from now his name will be unfamiliar to many casual baseball fans.

4. Tommy Leach (4). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in – you don’t get to play 900+ games at 3b & CF without having a good defensive skill set. Useless trivia: Still holds World Series record with 4 triples in a single series.

5. Tommy John (12). I’m going to downgrade my 19th century pitchers in relation to this innings eater. I had him close to Pettitte, another Yankees hurler close to HOM level. Nothing quite as soothing as watching hitters pound his sinker into the dirt over, and over, and over again.

6. Tony Mullane (6). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team: come on, “The Apollo of the Box” has that certain something.

7. Mickey Welch (7). 300 game winner in the house. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey. Seemed to pitch well against the other front line starters of his day.

8. Bob Johnson (8). Always a bit underrated in Win Shares due to quality of teams he played on. His career has war years that need discount. But also a couple years at the beginning of his career were in the PCL where he was more than major league quality. The tail of his career is nonexistent since the 1946 avalanche of returning War players pushed him back to the minors.

9. Bobby Bonds (9). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son, but we’re talking about a RF who could steal bases and field his position. All five tools on display.

10. Ben Taylor (11). Outstanding NeL analysis and metric updates from this group have convinced me that the first sacker is right in the hunt.

11. Buddy Bell (13). The gap between top-tier 3Bmen is not large for the position when he played in the 70s and 80s. Body type didn’t really look the part of a great glovemen but few would deny he was outstanding.

12. Vic Willis (14). Another pitcher this one from the turn of the century..the 20th, not the 21st. His era probably is owed another slot. HOM worthy? Eh, no strong feelings.

13. Tim Hudson (16). Neck-and-neck with Pettitte and we just let in the NYY lefty. Extended prime, thought of decently by media/fans at the time with 4 All-Star appearances and 4 Top 5 Cy Young finishes.

14. David Wright (17). Sometimes life isn’t fair. Great player but the body balked too early and that was that. Seeing him play in Double-A on his way to the Mets there was little doubt Mr. Wright was going to be a star.

15. Sal Bando (18). Gap between him and Buddy Bell is razor thin despite different career shape. Much of the backlog can say that though. Bando had impressive 5 year peak 1969-1973,

Next group just off ballot – Jack Clark, Luke Easter, John Olerud, Mark Buerhle, Urban Shocker, David Ortiz

Disclosures (Top 10):

Thurman Munson: Not there putting him at top of catcher ranking of eligible. My order is Posada/Tenace/Munson/Schang, Munson in 50-60 slot range.
David Ortiz: Just off, my DH discount drops him a little but he’s lingering.


Other newbies:
John Lackey
Jered Weaver
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jhonny Peralta
Matt Cain
Jayson Werth
J.J. Hardy
Mike Napoli
R.A. Dickey

whoa, yeah, that's a no for me dog...

Quick system review:

I am a peak/prime voter. Value above replacement has its place, but it isn’t what makes a player great. Average or below-average seasons essentially have no value in my system.

I create my own version of WAR (mWAR) using a combination of bWAR, fWAR, gWAR, Clay Davenport WARP, DanR WARP, WS, and Kiko Sakata’s WORL. I then reverse engineer league-agnostic WAA values from the mWAR values. I adjust mWAR and mWAA for standard deviation, Doc Chaleeko’s integration adjustments, and by the true historical replacement level and positional median levels, respectively, for mWAR and mWAA.

I use the yearly mWAA values to create a peak-rate salary estimator (the original one used by DanR is his WARP system). I then divide the player’s total salary by $100M and add career seasonal mWAA (negative values zeroed out) and career seasonal mWAG (negative values zeroed out). I then add bonuses for my personal MMP awards (based upon seasonal peak-rate seasonal mWAR salary estimator) and All-Star teams, as well as a cWPA-based post-season bonus.

The final number I call my PEACE+ (Player Excellence And Career Evaluation) number.

2023 Hall of Merit ballot:

2023 PHoM: Carlos Beltran, Brian Giles, Kenny Lofton

1. Carlos Beltran (PHoM 2023) – 110.80 PEACE mWAR All-Star CF 2003, 2006, 2008. 13th best CF ever (including active – read: Trout – players)

2. Jason Giambi (PHoM 2020) – 104.43 PEACE+. mWAR AL MMP 2001; mWAR All-Star 1b 2000, 2001. 19th best 1b ever.

3. Leon Day (PHoM 1960) – 101.28 PEACE+. mWAR NgL MMPitcher 1942, 1946. mWAR All-Star P 1942, 1946. 56th best P ever.

4. David Ortiz (PHoM 2022) – 97.82 PEACE+. mWAR All-Star DH 2004, 2007, 2011, 2013, 2016. 2nd best DH ever – would be 22nd best 1b ever.

5. Tommy Bond (PHoM 1901)– 96.81 PEACE+. mWAR NL MMP 1878, 1879; mWAR All-Star P 1878, 1879. 58th best P ever.

6. Charlie Buffinton (PHoM 1904)– 95.80 PEACE+. mWAR All-Star P 1888, 1891. 60th best P ever.

7. Lance Berkman (PHoM 1938) – 92.36 PEACE+. 23rd best 1b ever.

8. Heavy Johnson (PHoM 1938) – 92.21 PEACE+. mWAR All-Star RF 1922. 19th best RF ever. Even after regressing, per Eric’s future projections, he still ends up here.

9. Charlie Smith (PHoM 1937) – 92.15 PEACE+. mWAR NgL MPP 1926-1929. mWAR All-Star CF 1929. 20th best RF ever. The definition of a peak candidate due to his shortened career as a result of illness and subsequent death.

10. Gene Tenace (PHoM 1991) – 92.03 PEACE+. 18th best C ever.

11. Nomar Garciaparra (PHoM 2021) – 90.93 PEACE+. mWAR All-Star 1997. 23rd best SS ever.

12. Dwight Gooden (PHoM 2006) – 90.79 PEACE+. mWAR MMP 1985. mWAR NL MMPItcher 1984; mWAR All-Star P 1984, 1985. 64th best P ever.

13. Dizzy Dean (PHoM 1950) – 88.52 PEACE+. mWAR MMP 1934. mWAR NL MMPitcher 1935. mWAR All-Star P 1934. 67th best P ever.

14. Bert Campaneris (PHoM 1994) – 87.24 PEACE+. mWAR All-Star SS 1968, 1973, 1974, 1977. 24th best SS ever.

15. Orel Hershiser (PHoM 2006) – 86.59 PEACE+. mWAR MMP 1988. mWAR NL MMPItcher 1987, 1989. mWAR All-Star P 1987-1989. 68th best P ever.

Off-ballot and required disclosures:

16. Albert Belle
17. Luke Easter
18. Kevin Appier
19. Don Newcombe
20. Carlos Moran
21. Urban Shocker
22. David Wright
23. Thurman Munson – PHoM 1985
24. Bobby Bonds – PhoM 1987
25. Eddie Ciccotte
26. Gavvy Cravath
27. Jim Fregosi
28. Brian Giles
29. Cesar Cedeno
30. George Scales
31. Frank Chance
32. Elston Howard
33. Hilton Smith
34. Vic Willis – PHoM 1918
35. Al Rosen
36. Silver King
37. Ron Cey
38. Dave Concepcion
39. Chet Lemon
40. Bernie Williams
41. Buddy Bell – PHoM 2001
42. Jorge Posada
43. John Olerud
44. Babe Adams
45. Dolf Luque
46. Billy Wagner
47. Cliff Lee
48. Roy Oswalt
49. Wilbur Wood
50. Tony Perez
52. Tommy John – Not exactly a peak/prime voter’s ideal candidate, but will probably make PHoM at some point.
54. Sal Bando – Hurt in my system by standard deviation and SS-3b replacement level adjustment compared to BB-Ref.
86. Bob Johnson – Consistently above average, but never really great. Hurt by integration adjustment and weak WWII era adjustments.

Compared to the electorate as a whole, I have to be considered a career voter. However, my vote does include an additional 5-year credit for a weighted average of peak seasons (3-Yr, 5-Yr, etc.). Ranking system is based off Davenport WARP components, with modified adjustments in the conversion from W1 to W3. I also review BB-Ref as a check but don’t use those numbers systematically.

I am up to 1,428 players total included in my current ranking assessment, including 960 players under consideration for this ballot (less the 281 HOM members and 187 actives or too-recently retired). Not much time for updates this year, mostly slotting in new candidates. The Davenport numbers are updated for the ballot folks, and the outfielders no one else is voting for might take a hit next year.

--- Top 10% of HOM Line ---
--- Top 25% of HOM Line ---

--. Ichiro Suzuki, Seat. (AL) RF (1994-2017) (2023) – I have no issue with leaving the HOF behind and charting our own course on candidate selection.

1. Jorge Posada (2), N.Y. (A), C (1997-2011) (2017) – As with all players of this era, Posada gets a boost because of a more-difficult American League environment. This elevates him above the Ted Simmons class. The nicely sustained peak from 2000-2007 also raises his value in my book, into the lower reaches of the Fisk/Cochrane class. Pretty impressive resume despite the relatively low AB total.

--- Top 50% of HOM Line ---

2. Carlos Beltran (n/a), N.Y. (N) – K.C. (A), CF / RF (1999-2017) (2023) – Solidly above the line for enshrinement, but just short of the average HOM line. Checks a lot of boxes for me without seemingly excelling in any one thing. Almost the platonic ideal of a quick HOM candidate who will take a number of years on the HOF vote.

3. David Ortiz (4), Bost. – Minn. (A), DH (1997-2016) (2022) – Certainly a possibility to rank higher with any amount of postseason credit, and there’s certainly an argument to be made for including that credit when a third of the league makes it to the crapshoot. However, this ranking is based strictly on regular season numbers. Very much like Giambi in my estimation, with all the value coming from the bat; I have Jason with a better peak score to slot ahead of David.

--. Rube Waddell, Phila. (A) SP (1899-1909) (2023) –

4. David Wright (7), N.Y. (N), 3B (2004-2016) (2022) – WARP doesn’t like Wright’s defensive resume at all, but does give full credit for the offense – nearly equal to Ortiz in W1 despite the significantly fewer AB’s. Ortiz was in the stronger league, so the W3 numbers aren’t as close. Slight 3B-boost elevates Wright ahead of Berkman on this ballot.

5. Jason Giambi (3), Oak. – N.Y. (A), 1B / DH (1995-2014) (2020) – Straight WARP plus a peak bonus would have Giambi atop this ballot. Hence my need to making fielding adjustments to hinder the DH-types. But Jason’s peak is top 25% HOM worthy, elevating him to the upper reaches of the ballot muddle.

6. Lance Berkman (8), Houst. (N) 1B / LF (1999-2013) – A significantly better bat than Helton, but no fielding value, shorter career, and less impressive peak all add up. Helton and Berkman are not that far apart in total value, but the difference seems likely to be significant, amounting to a much longer wait time.

--. Eppa Rixey, Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (1912-1933) –

--. Charley Jones, Cinc. (AA/NL) LF / CF (1875-1887) –

--. Dobie Moore, K.C. (--) SS (1916-1926) –

7. Lance Parrish (11), Detr. – Calif. (A) C (1978-1995) – Very low peak score, yet still way ahead of Schang. Career candidate with catcher bonus is enough to slot here. It’s also enough to question the value used for the catcher bonus (but not until next year).

8. Jim Whitney (12), Bos. – Wash. (N) SP (1881-1888) – I see no reason why we would elect any more pitchers from the 1880s, but my statistical updates suggest we maybe should have selected different ones; can’t penalize Whitney for past mistakes. Two really good seasons amongst six All-Star type years. The peak score elevates a possibly not-long-enough career to the ballot. Whitney definitely needs the help he gets from his offensive output – the pitching alone wouldn’t qualify him here.

9. Ben Taylor (13), Ind. (--) 1B (1910-1926) (1938) – Measures up as better than Giambi’s career numbers, but not nearly as well on the peak measure. All-in-all though, a favorable reevaluation that places him up where he was when he entered the P-Hall many moons ago.

--. Jose Mendez , K.C. (NgL) SP (1907-1922) –

10. Frank Tanana (14), Calif. – Detr. (A) SP (1973-1993) (2000) – No longer seen as having a Koufax peak, but it is still one of the top 175 peaks of all time. Plus the ever- present 10 additional years of average / below avg.

11. Jack Quinn (15), N.Y. - Bost. (A) SP (1909-1932) – Credit given for missing seasons of 1916 through part of 1918, due apparently only to the failing of the Federal League. Factoring that in, he looks right at home amongst all the other long-ish career pitchers clustering on my ballot.

--. John McGraw, Balt. (N) 3B / SS (1891-1902) –

12. Luis Gonzalez (9), Ariz. – Hou. (N), LF (1991-2007) – A career candidate with a tent pole 2001 season that elevates all his peak scores. I don’t recall thinking of the ’91 Astros as a great collection of talent when I saw them in person at Wrigley, but quite a few of ‘em made careers for themselves, no?

13. Brian Giles (10), Pitts. – S.D. (N) RF / LF (1996-2009) – The peak score and fielding regression adjustments slot Giles in ahead of Reggie Smith and Bob Johnson in the pecking order.

--. Sandy Koufax, L.A. (N) SP (1956-1966) –

14. Eddie Cicotte (--), Chic. (A), SP (’08-’20) (1930) – My updates of data on the 1910s players show Cicotte rising. These rankings could again readjust once further updates from the 20s, 30s, and 40s are completed.

15. Bucky Walters (--), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – Another elevated peak score creating separation from a lot of similar options. Chuck Finley was another possibility for this spot.

--- I have 29 players ranked among the top 281 of all time who are eligible for this election, and an additional 16 previously elected HOM players awaiting induction for the pHOM. ---

Buddy Bell (2009) – Has risen back above my pHOM line, I think due to a reevaluation of the league adjustment for the 70s AL. Bell now ranks right near Bobby Bonds as top-290 players (top 30 on the ballot), but the path back to ballot slots seems remote in the near future.

Thurman Munson – Could almost copy my justification for Schang from past years here. I do have Munson higher than Wally based on peak score, but still below Posada, Parrish, Tenace, and Kendall on the catcher list.

Sal Bando – Slotted between Pie Traynor and Billy Nash among full-time third basemen. A reassessment has adjusted his current ranking about 50 spots (and just into the top 500 for me all time), but he is not really under consideration.

Bobby Bonds (1987) – An arguable case as one of the best 280 eligible players of all time; as I have it right now he is just barely outside that range, atop the very borderline of in/out in my system. But of course there are HOMers ranked below Bonds from earlier generations, so the in/out line for the current generation is actually higher than just making the top 280. In the P-Hall, and I’m always in favor of seeing those guys elected, but right now he’s in the 30s on my ballot.

Vic Willis – Mixed amongst a group of pitchers that I currently consider as just below the HOM line, although a number of this group are elected to the P-Hall. But with my placing a larger emphasis on peak over prime than before, Willis is barely ranked within the top 30 of eligible pitchers in my estimation. Besides those listed on the ballot above, I would suggest others consider Tommy John, Dutch Leonard, and Chuck Finley first.

Bob Johnson (1987) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume. Lack of peak keeps him off-ballot.

Tommy John – Pitched forever of course, but there’s just not enough value in this resume to qualify for the ballot. And that’s before getting into a discussion on peak.

Bell, Munson, Bando, Bonds, Willis, Johnson, and John were in last year’s top fourteen, but not in my top 15 this year.
---

I realized I forgot one disclosure:

85. Ben Taylor - Only 2 seasons above 4.6 mWAR/162 in my system and only 3.0 total mWAG. A slightly better Mark Grace to me.

As usual, getting my ballot in on the last day.

I did put together a ballot last year, but just didn't get it in on time. (Wouldn't have affected the results anyway.) So all of the last year votes are from there. In the very unlikely chance someone is tracking my PHoM, A-Rod, Santana, Andruw Jones & Newcombe made it last year.

Last year I did take seriously the argument that we should de-emphasize the earlier candidates because of the effects of segregation on their statistics. On the other hand, I didn't make really dramatic changes in my ballot, because I still think the arguments for these candidates are valid.

My ranking system isn’t derived from a formula. It’s based more on BB-ref’s WAR than anything else, but I still have WS and old WARP totals on my spreadsheet. I did take a strong look at the latest MLEs for Negro League candidates, but while it added some players to my consideration set, it didn't have a strong impact on the ballot.

I also try to include both peak and career candidates, but tend to lean more towards the career when push comes to shove. When I talk about WS or WAR rate, that’s per PA.

I don’t do steroid-related boycotts.

Beltran, Ortiz & Ralph Kiner make my PHoM this year.

1. Carlos Beltran (new) More of a career candidate, but I think he is clearly ahead of the rest of the ballot. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Bobby Bonds (2) While Edmonds is clearly better, especially in the field, I think they are pretty comparable over all. More of a prime candidate than anything else, but his peak and career values aren’t bad either. Even with Smith’s election, I still think 1970’s OF are a bit underrepresented. Made my PHoM in 2008.

3. Lance Berkman (3) Definitely was under the radar for me when he was playing, but with a 144 OPS+, a good defensive rep, and a lot of postseason value, he scores very well. Made my PHoM in 2019

4. Ben Taylor (4) A solid candidate who might have been overlooked. 3rd-best 1B in the Negro Leagues, a good hitter with an outstanding defensive rep. I think the MLEs show him as a strong candidate.

I have him as the best overall 1B of his era – Sisler was better at his best, but that just didn’t last long enough. I know from the discussion thread this year that doesn't make him a HoMer, but it is an achievement. Made my PHoM in 2009.

5. Tommy Bridges (6) Very hard to differentiate between Bridges and Cone. He was also extremely consistent, which I feel is a strength. I am giving him war credit, but not minor-league credit. While the 1930s have a lot of players in the HOM, it’s a little short on pitchers, at least percentagewise. Made my PhoM in 2021

6. Phil Rizzuto (5) With war credit, and taking into account the malaria as a side effect of that, it’s pretty clear he’d have more career value than Stephens. Peak is a different issue, but he’s not that far behind Stephens, and he did have a few excellent seasons. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940. Made my PHoM in 1997.

7. Don Newcombe (9) Deserving of minor league credit, and his numbers were clearly and obviously affected by his alcoholism. It’s up to the voter to decide how that changes your evaluation. And he gets less attention from the HoF people than Gil Hodges or Allie Reynolds. Read about the Yankees and Dodgers in the 50s, and tell me who people thought was a better pitcher. Mad my PHoM last year

8. David Ortiz (10) I feel that his offense is strong enough to compensate for the DH factor. There's also a pretty good argument that his production was held down by poor coaching in Minnesota, so his career value should be a little higher. Makes my PHoM this year.

9. Bus Clarkson (8) I recognize the current MLEs don't quite support this ranking, but I still think there’s a reasonable chance he was Hall-worthy but fell through the cracks. Made my PHoM in 1997.

10. Bob Johnson (12) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons, plus he got started very late in the bigs, so I will give him at least 1 year of minor league credit. I still don’t think Joe Medwick was any better than Bob. Made my PHoM in 1992.

(10A. Ralph Kiner. Makes my PHoM this year.)
(10B. Jeff Kent)

11. Roy Oswalt (14) Moved up for me last year, because I was undervaluing recent pitchers. Slightly behind Santana, but has a very similar profile. There's a Bill James study that had him as the best big game pitcher from 1952-2013, but a lot of those games got overlooked in Wild Card races.

12. Thurman Munson (12). I'm not really sure we need any more catchers, but I think he's got the best combination of skills. Didn’t hit quite as well as Bresnahan, but Roger also accumulated a fair amount of hanging-around value, even by WAR.

(12A. Sammy Sosa)

13. John Olerud (17) I understand the comment that McGriff looked more like a Hall of Famer, but Olerud was just perpetually overlooked. He clearly had significantly more defensive value than McGriff, and the offensive difference is not huge (OPS+ 134-128).

14. Norm Cash (13) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism), and the fluke year. Even if you take 1961 out, he’s still clearly ahead of Cepeda and Perez in WS and WARP rate. He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1. Made my PHoM in 2003.

15. Kevin Appier (18) In the modern pitcher backlog, I definitely prefer the ones with strong peaks to the Pettitte/Beuhrle/Hudson career value group. As others have noted, he had very good 94 & 95 seasons that were cut back by the strike.

16. Cesar Cedeno (19) Outside of the big total WAR difference, I don’t see a lot
differentiating him in value from Lofton & Jones. (Yeah, that’s a pretty big ‘outside of’)

17. Tommy Leach (16) Doesn’t do great by WAR, although a lot of the other 3B candidates are in the hard-to-differentiate 70s clump. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

18. Hilton Smith (25) Definitely the best Negro League pitcher available. I'm just not sure if we need to add any more.

(18A. John McGraw)

19. Gavvy Cravath (21). With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. He compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

20. Jack Clark (27) An overlooked quality player.

21. Dizzy Dean (20) Does have a really good peak argument by some metrics, but he stands out less by WAR than he did by the other ones.

22. Vern Stephens (22) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.

23. Bernie Williams (24) A really good player when he was at his best, but everything says the defense was so bad in the second half of his career that it keeps him away from the ballot.

24. Urban Shocker (23) He is a good candidate, but his career is a bit too short, even with the ½ year war credit.

(24A Hughie Jennings, 24B Sam Thompson)

25. Sal Bando (26) I had him significantly lower, but looking again I do he comes out a bit ahead of the other 3Bmen of the era. I do still worry about having too many similar players at the same position at the same time.

26. Bucky Walters (29) Would be higher, but when you consider a wartime discount, his 115 ERA+ really isn’t impressive.

(26A Roger Bresnahan, 26B George Sisler)

27. Tommy John (33) He had more of a peak than I originally realized. Hope Kaat's election is a good sign for him, because I'd take him first.

28. Bill Monroe (28) The MLEs are really weak, but in this case I'm not sure I completely accept them, because they're so different from the reputation. But he won't be on a ballot any time soon. Made my PHoM in 1939.

29. Jose Cruz (30) Had a wide variety of skills, and had a very tough home park to deal with.

30. Wally Schang (31) I still don’t think he’s ahead of Bresnahan, and I don’t have Roger in either. The OBP is truly impressive, but a lot of it was accumulated in the ‘20s, not the ‘10s.

31. Jason Giambi (32) I think he's become historically overlooked for several reasons, but he had some great years. The Yankees had a lot of good players, didn't they?

(32A Rollie Fingers, 32B Nellie Fox)

32. Bob Elliott (34) Dropped a little bit because of his era, but he does have a claim to be the best 3B of it.

33. Albert Belle (42) A serious peak candidate, but a short career for a modern player.

34. Tim Hudson (37) As I said above, I prefer the modern pitchers with stronger peaks. Really not sure why you put Pettitte ahead of him, though.

35. Fred McGriff (35) I beat up on him a bit in the Olerud comment, but he still did have a long, consistent career.

(35A Graig Nettles)

36. Wally Berger
37. Billy Wagner
38. Tony Lazzeri
(38A Charley Jones)

39. Dolf Luque
40. Tony Perez

41. Dale Murphy
42. Bert Campaneris
43. Orlando Cepeda
(43A Andy Pettitte, 47A Pete Browning)
44. Eddie Cicotte
45. Kirby Puckett

46. Gene Tenace
47. Vic Willis. I think he’s pretty comparable to Cicotte – he’s more of a prime/career guy, but the total is about the same. If we’re looking for pitchers, the 20s & 30s (Bridges/Dean) are the underrepresented eras. Willis isn’t a bad candidate, but I don’t see anything special about him.
48. Luke Easter
49. David Wright
50. Heavy Johnson

George Van Haltren & Elston Howard are both in my PHoM, but now I think they were mistakes. Although I can understand the argument for Howard, and Van Haltren came very close to getting in to the HOM at times.

Buddy Bell (Not in Top 50): I can at least see an argument for Bando standing out from the pack among the 70s 3Bmen. With Bell, I just don't get it. I'd rather have David Wright.

2023 ballot:

Took advantage of the holiday break I had and looked through and incorporated a lot of information from the different rating systems as well as my own evaluations. Basically, I looked at rWAR, fWAR, gWAR, Tom's pwins and ewins, win shares (specifically win shares above bench), heck I even looked at what Prospectus has been doing with their WARP (still heavy with the timelining I see). So, lots of information that was sorted through, and the end result is that there are some changes to my ballot. There's one player that surprised me in terms of actually moving up once I looked at all of those different metrics. It also further muddled the ranking of certain sets of players, most notably that all of the third basemen are now even more grouped together than they were before. So here goes my best attempt this year where we again only have one clear worthy newcomer.

1. Carlos Beltran –An easy number one in this candidate pool context.

2. David Ortiz – For the second year in a row his ranking surprised me, but this is where he ends up after the assessment of looking at all of those different metrics. fWAR and rWAR are actually lower on Ortiz then the other metrics and that’s before getting to whether the DH penalty is higher than it should be.

3. Vic Willis –Stays steady this year even with the previous discussions about the segregation penalty, still see him as ballot worthy.

4. Don Newcombe – After going over and reworking the different types of credit I give to the players in my consideration set, Newcombe slots here. He’s got NGL and military credit and his bat also gives him a boost.

5. Tommy Bond – His dominance during his time places him on the ballot.

6. Thurman Munson – Tops my catcher consideration list and with the adjustments I make for catchers vs other position players lands here (falls a bit from last year when looking at the other metrics).

7. Bernie Williams- Still going with Bernie as my top centerfielder and makes my top 15.

8. Tony Perez – Perez tends to do better on most of the other systems that are not rWAR and is also a peak/prime third basemen. In the end, still feel more comfortable placing Perez on top of my first base pile.

9. Phil Rizzuto – Adjustments for war credit get him here.

10. Tommy John – After reviewing the different metrics, I’ve come around on him making the ballot.

11. Urban Shocker – Even with a slight downgrade due to segregation penalty discussion, edges ahead of other candidates when adjusting for WW1 seasons.

12. Bobby Bonds – Top right fielder in my rankings.

13. Bob Johnson – PCL credit gets him over the other left fielders.

14. Tim Hudson – Makes my ballot this year with the spots opened up with the shifts in the third basemen nudging them below him in my ranking

15. Mickey Welch – Hello old friend, we meet again. Makes his return to the ballot this year.

Required comments:

Sal Bando – The review of the different metrics causes the third basemen group to tighten even further and the result is Bando drops in the ranking falls just off ballot. Have to really sort through this third basemen group next time but there’s not enough separation for me to justify favoring one over the others (and not enough to put them all on the ballot vs other players).

Buddy Bell – What holds me up on voting for Bell is that his best seasons are his age 27 to 32 seasons and all coincide with his run with the Rangers. These are driven by Rfield values that are all higher than his highest values in prior seasons with Cleveland and those values immediately drop once he leaves Texas (although that may also be related with age but in his age 33 split season where he leaves Texas he is 7 with Tx and -5 in Cincinnati). It could be he just was even better as a fielder while in Texas, but if this were offensive value one would think that a park effect may be in play. Until I reconcile this, I don’t feel comfortable putting him on my ballot yet.

Lance Berkman – Just behind Bob Johnson in my left field pecking order and may make my ballot next time (if he’s still on the ballot).

Ben Taylor – Still a viable candidate for me but for now is off ballot pending further information on the equivalencies.

Patrick W has asked me to post the ballot for him as he is unable to log in:

Compared to the electorate as a whole, I have to be considered a career voter. However, my vote does include an additional 5-year credit for a weighted average of peak seasons (3-Yr, 5-Yr, etc.). Ranking system is based off Davenport WARP components, with modified adjustments in the conversion from W1 to W3. I also review BB-Ref as a check but don’t use those numbers systematically.

I am up to 1,428 players total included in my current ranking assessment, including 960 players under consideration for this ballot (less the 281 HOM members and 187 actives or too-recently retired). Not much time for updates this year, mostly slotting in new candidates. The Davenport numbers are updated for the ballot folks, and the outfielders no one else is voting for might take a hit next year.

--- Top 10% of HOM Line ---

--- Top 25% of HOM Line ---

--. Ichiro Suzuki, Seat. (AL) RF (1994-2017) (2023) – I have no issue with leaving the HOF behind and charting our own course on candidate selection.

1. Jorge Posada (2), N.Y. (A), C (1997-2011) (2017) – As with all players of this era, Posada gets a boost because of a more-difficult American League environment. This elevates him above the Ted Simmons class. The nicely sustained peak from 2000-2007 also raises his value in my book, into the lower reaches of the Fisk/Cochrane class. Pretty impressive resume despite the relatively low AB total.

--- Top 50% of HOM Line ---

2. Carlos Beltran (n/a), N.Y. (N) – K.C. (A), CF / RF (1999-2017) (2023) – Solidly above the line for enshrinement, but just short of the average HOM line. Checks a lot of boxes for me without seemingly excelling in any one thing. Almost the platonic ideal of a quick HOM candidate who will take a number of years on the HOF vote.

3. David Ortiz (4), Bost. – Minn. (A), DH (1997-2016) (2022) – Certainly a possibility to rank higher with any amount of postseason credit, and there’s certainly an argument to be made for including that credit when a third of the league makes it to the crapshoot. However, this ranking is based strictly on regular season numbers. Very much like Giambi in my estimation, with all the value coming from the bat; I have Jason with a better peak score to slot ahead of David.

--. Rube Waddell, Phila. (A) SP (1899-1909) (2023) –

4. David Wright (7), N.Y. (N), 3B (2004-2016) (2022) – WARP doesn’t like Wright’s defensive resume at all, but does give full credit for the offense – nearly equal to Ortiz in W1 despite the significantly fewer AB’s. Ortiz was in the stronger league, so the W3 numbers aren’t as close. Slight 3B-boost elevates Wright ahead of Berkman on this ballot.

5. Jason Giambi (3), Oak. – N.Y. (A), 1B / DH (1995-2014) (2020) – Straight WARP plus a peak bonus would have Giambi atop this ballot. Hence my need to making fielding adjustments to hinder the DH-types. But Jason’s peak is top 25% HOM worthy, elevating him to the upper reaches of the ballot muddle.

6. Lance Berkman (8), Houst. (N) 1B / LF (1999-2013) – A significantly better bat than Helton, but no fielding value, shorter career, and less impressive peak all add up. Helton and Berkman are not that far apart in total value, but the difference seems likely to be significant, amounting to a much longer wait time.

--. Eppa Rixey, Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (1912-1933) –

--. Charley Jones, Cinc. (AA/NL) LF / CF (1875-1887) –

--. Dobie Moore, K.C. (--) SS (1916-1926) –

7. Lance Parrish (11), Detr. – Calif. (A) C (1978-1995) – Very low peak score, yet still way ahead of Schang. Career candidate with catcher bonus is enough to slot here. It’s also enough to question the value used for the catcher bonus (but not until next year).

8. Jim Whitney (12), Bos. – Wash. (N) SP (1881-1888) – I see no reason why we would elect any more pitchers from the 1880s, but my statistical updates suggest we maybe should have selected different ones; can’t penalize Whitney for past mistakes. Two really good seasons amongst six All-Star type years. The peak score elevates a possibly not-long-enough career to the ballot. Whitney definitely needs the help he gets from his offensive output – the pitching alone wouldn’t qualify him here.

9. Ben Taylor (13), Ind. (--) 1B (1910-1926) (1938) – Measures up as better than Giambi’s career numbers, but not nearly as well on the peak measure. All-in-all though, a favorable reevaluation that places him up where he was when he entered the P-Hall many moons ago.

--. Jose Mendez , K.C. (NgL) SP (1907-1922) –

10. Frank Tanana (14), Calif. – Detr. (A) SP (1973-1993) (2000) – No longer seen as having a Koufax peak, but it is still one of the top 175 peaks of all time. Plus the ever- present 10 additional years of average / below avg.

11. Jack Quinn (15), N.Y. - Bost. (A) SP (1909-1932) – Credit given for missing seasons of 1916 through part of 1918, due apparently only to the failing of the Federal League. Factoring that in, he looks right at home amongst all the other long-ish career pitchers clustering on my ballot.

--. John McGraw, Balt. (N) 3B / SS (1891-1902) –

12. Luis Gonzalez (9), Ariz. – Hou. (N), LF (1991-2007) – A career candidate with a tent pole 2001 season that elevates all his peak scores. I don’t recall thinking of the ’91 Astros as a great collection of talent when I saw them in person at Wrigley, but quite a few of ‘em made careers for themselves, no?

13. Brian Giles (10), Pitts. – S.D. (N) RF / LF (1996-2009) – The peak score and fielding regression adjustments slot Giles in ahead of Reggie Smith and Bob Johnson in the pecking order.

--. Sandy Koufax, L.A. (N) SP (1956-1966) –

14. Eddie Cicotte (--), Chic. (A), SP (’08-’20) (1930) – My updates of data on the 1910s players show Cicotte rising. These rankings could again readjust once further updates from the 20s, 30s, and 40s are completed.

15. Bucky Walters (--), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – Another elevated peak score creating separation from a lot of similar options. Chuck Finley was another possibility for this spot.

--- I have 29 players ranked among the top 281 of all time who are eligible for this election, and an additional 16 previously elected HOM players awaiting induction for the pHOM. ---

Buddy Bell (2009) – Has risen back above my pHOM line, I think due to a reevaluation of the league adjustment for the 70s AL. Bell now ranks right near Bobby Bonds as top-290 players (top 30 on the ballot), but the path back to ballot slots seems remote in the near future.

Thurman Munson – Could almost copy my justification for Schang from past years here. I do have Munson higher than Wally based on peak score, but still below Posada, Parrish, Tenace, and Kendall on the catcher list.

Sal Bando – Slotted between Pie Traynor and Billy Nash among full-time third basemen. A reassessment has adjusted his current ranking about 50 spots (and just into the top 500 for me all time), but he is not really under consideration.

Bobby Bonds (1987) – An arguable case as one of the best 280 eligible players of all time; as I have it right now he is just barely outside that range, atop the very borderline of in/out in my system. But of course there are HOMers ranked below Bonds from earlier generations, so the in/out line for the current generation is actually higher than just making the top 280. In the P-Hall, and I’m always in favor of seeing those guys elected, but right now he’s in the 30s on my ballot.

Vic Willis – Mixed amongst a group of pitchers that I currently consider as just below the HOM line, although a number of this group are elected to the P-Hall. But with my placing a larger emphasis on peak over prime than before, Willis is barely ranked within the top 30 of eligible pitchers in my estimation. Besides those listed on the ballot above, I would suggest others consider Tommy John, Dutch Leonard, and Chuck Finley first.

Bob Johnson (1987) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume. Lack of peak keeps him off-ballot.

Tommy John – Pitched forever of course, but there’s just not enough value in this resume to qualify for the ballot. And that’s before getting into a discussion on peak.

Bell, Munson, Bando, Bonds, Willis, Johnson, and John were in last year’s top fourteen, but not in my top 15 this year.

Patrick W's same ballot already appeared in post 26.

2023 Hall of Merit Ballot

Data
My ballot is based on Matthew Cornwell's summary of his PARCS-D ratings at Baseball-Fever. At its core, PARCS-D is a score based on adding B-Ref career WAR, career WAA, and all seasonal WAA accrued above 3 in a given year, as well as a cap of -5 WAA that can be accumulated in negative-WAA seasons. Since I think the pennant impact of marginal WAA increases non-linearly, I consider the bonus for seasonal WAA above 3 a quick-and-dirty way of approximating this impact.

From this core, PARCS-D incorporates a variety of adjustments that I agree with, including credit for postseason play and missed time due to military service and labor stoppages. It also includes Negro and Cuban League players based on Eric Chalek's MLEs.

Players with a PARCS-D of 100 or above are personal Hall-of-Famers, according to Cornwell.

My consideration set includes every player who appeared on a ballot in the 2021 HOM election and newly eligible players for 2022.

Methods
1. I replace PARCS-D postseason credit with championship WPA (cWPA) in playoff games, multiplied by 20 to scale it to regular-season WAA. This multiplier is based on simulated data from a theoretical MLB where 16 true-talent .500 teams are divided in two leagues and the regular-season pennant winners advance to the World Series. In this format, my simulations find that 1 cWPA is equivalent to adding *at least* 20 regular-season WAA to a random team before the season. The multiplier for pre-1947 White players is 11 (compared to 9 for theoretical cWPA in Negro League championship games) because I believe segregation prevented the World Series from definitively determining the best team in professional baseball.
2. For pre-1947 play, I remove PARCS-D league quality adjustments and add Eric's segregation adjustment of -10 RAA/660 PA or 220 IP simplified to -1 WAR/WAA per 660 PA/220 IP.
3. In cases where Negro and Cuban League players have lower PARCS-D than implied by Eric's MLEs, I use the latter rating instead.
4. For pitchers, I add their career B-Ref WAAadj.
5. I adjust the 59/41 batting/pitching B-Ref WAR split to correspond to the 57/43 split proposed by Tom Tango. To incorporate this, players are given +1 WAR/WAA per 2150 IP and -1 WAR/WAA per 9250 PA.
6. I remove WPA Clutch from PARCS-D in favor of the Inter-Game and Intra-Game Win Adjustments from Tom Thress' Baseball Player Won-Loss Records, which are then scaled to Inter-Game and Intra-Game WAA and multiplied by 2.
7. In cases where a player lacks data for computing an adjustment, they are credited with the average score for that adjustment.
8. In keeping with Cornwell, I also incorporate a subjective adjustment with a 16-point range (though mine is +/-8). Where I make a subjective adjustment, I'll try to substantiate it.

Ballot
1. Carlos Beltran (133 points) - Zero subjective adjustment.

2. Thurman Munson (129) - Terrific player at a position where the HOM is underrepresented. Tough, durable, and performed when it counted.

3. Lance Berkman (125) - "Fat Elvis" is a less sexy name than "Big Papi", but he comes out ahead here because of a truly massive postseason career.

4. Tommy John (120) - As preamble, John would be 11th on my ballot without a +8 subjective adjustment. However, I read the HOM Constitution narrowly; while we are strongly encouraged to focus on a player's statistical record, the Constitution does not altogether forbid other considerations. This isn't something I'd do casually, but I think John's performance after UCL reconstruction should be considered at the margins. On a close ballot, I'm giving him a marginal amount of credit for raising the quality of play at every level of organized baseball due to the part he played in establishing a new treatment for an injury that had previously been career-threatening. While UCL reconstruction almost certainly would have been developed eventually, its development and adoption would have been delayed for some time if John had failed to recover from his procedure.

5. David Ortiz (120) - He'd be right behind Berkman except for the guy who got his elbow rebuilt.

6. Willie Davis (118)

7. John Olerud (115)

8. Phil Rizzuto (115) - War credit and great clutch stats are enough to overcome a modest segregation adjustment. Could slide next year as I incorporate the segregation adjustment for the early integration period, especially if it is primarily applied to the American League.

9. Orel Hershiser (111)

10. Don Newcombe (109)

11. Sal Bando (109) - Subjective adjustment of -8 because I suspect B-Ref WAR overvalues 3B relative to SS during this era.

12. Dwight Gooden (109)

13. Jim Sundberg (109) - Subjective adjustment of +2 to pull a C out from the grab bag of bats near the back of my ballot.

14. Jose Cruz (109)

15. Dizzy Dean (109) - Subjective adjustment of +2 to get a fifth pitcher on my ballot. The irony of having such a short career is that Dean didn't pitch enough innings to get really dinged on the segregation adjustment.

(16. Luke Easter (108))

Top 10 Returnees
19. Bobby Bonds (106)
20. Buddy Bell (105) - Gets same -8 as Bando for B-Ref 3B/SS positional adjustment.
Wally Schang (90) - segregation adjustment
Vic Willis (85) - segregation adjustment
Ben Taylor (77) - segregation adjustment
Bob Johnson (71) - segregation adjustment

Sorry, had trouble posting my ballot!

EDIT: Also the John comment is out-of-date: as you can see, he'd be 8th on my ballot without the subjective adjustment.

James, you have two 10s and 16 players on your ballot, let us know who should be dropped (since 14 and 15 both have the same score, default would be Dean dropped).

EDIT: Just saw you updated it, thanks!

Apologies, Esteban and vote counters: I saw that and edited my ballot post. There should be 15 players ranked correctly.

Apologies, I edited my post of Patrick W's ballot, but BBTF won't accept the edits.

Moving Ardo's ballot to the main thread

The Honorable Ardo Posted: January 10, 2022 at 09:56 PM (#6060540)
2023 prelim. Please note this is VERY preliminary and subject to change. The past election took 1) A-Rod, 4) Abreu, 8) Sosa, and 10) Pettite.

1) Carlos Beltran - If the Hall were half its size, we'd be having a passionate debate about him. Not inner-circle but better than anyone else available. I have him slightly ahead of Edmonds, though I can accept those who have it the other way (Edmonds had a longer extended prime, Beltran had a higher absolute peak and more career value).
2) Hilton Smith - The only well-documented portion of Smith's career is 1937-43 and he accumulates all of his 13 PWAA in that span. I find it hard to believe that he was mediocre in his late 20's; I'm mentally giving him credit for 10-12 more PWAA prior to 1937. Then he contributes four more Ted Lyons-type seasons after returning from World War II.
3) Wally Schang - The Ted Simmons of his era, and an important contributor to pennant- and World Series-winning teams. Deserves a bit of World War I credit.
4) Adolfo Luque - A development curve altered by the color line. No (known) Cubans played in MLB from National Association days until 1911. Luque debuted for the Miracle Braves in 1914, but didn't get a fair chance until 1920. He then dominated for six years before gradually aging.
5) Luke Easter - Performed in MLB at a David Ortiz/Fred McGriff level in his late 30's, facing obstacles neither modern player faced, and there's extensive supporting evidence that he was a great slugger before then.

These are the five players I'd really like to see inducted. After them:
6) Buddy Bell
7) David Ortiz
8) Jorge Posada
9) Ben Taylor
10) Johnny Evers
11) Thurman Munson
12) Bert Campaneris
13) Lance Berkman
14) Phil Rizzuto
15) Bobby Bonds

16-20: Duffy, Bando, Willis, Buehrle, Nomar
21-25: Lee Smith, John, Leach, Hudson, McGriff
26-30: Appier, Van Haltren, Clarkson, D. Wright, Walters

Election is over. Results will be posted once we clear up a couple down-ballot discrepancies.

If any voter is interested, please vote for the top 15 in the results section. Curious how a two tier vote approach may have changed the results

WOW - a HOM thread I can post in!

I believe we have 5 new HOMer LFs to add to that (impervious to steel) LF voting thread, but correct me if I'm wrong:

LANCE BERKMAN
BARRY BONDS
RICKEY HENDERSON
MONTE IRVIN
MANNY RAMIREZ