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Hall of Merit— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Wednesday, December 22, 2004
Addie Joss
Durability aside, there weren’t too many pitchers greater than him.
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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 22, 2004 at 09:34 PM (#1036776)Let's compare W-L records, since that what Ardo is focused on, from high to low with ERA+ thrown in for fun.
Best--Waddell 27-10 (180) Joss 27-11 (137)--advantage Rube
Next--Joss 24-11 (205) Waddell 25-19 (165)--Joss
3rd--Waddell 24-7 (179) Joss 21-9 (152)--Rube
4th--Joss 20-12 (131) Waddell 21-16 (125)--too close to call without more info
5th--Waddell 19-13 (121) Joss 18-13 (130)--too close to call
6th--Waddell 19-14 (127) Joss 17-13 (124)--too close
7th--Joss 14-10 (159) Waddell 15-17 (123)--Joss
8th--Joss 14-13 (150) Waddell 14-16 (108)--Joss
9th--Waddell 11-14 (102) Joss 5-5 (114)--Rube
10th through 14th--Waddell 8-13 (153), 7-2 (125), 3-1 (70), 0-1 (133)--Rube
Throw out Rube's advantages in years 9 through 14 if you like, but then you also have to discount Joss' very minor advantages in years 7-8, and Rube had 3 of the 4 best seasons either of them ever had. Each won 20 games 4 times. Joss' ERA+ was better than 120 8 times when he went 155-92. Rube's was better than 120 (and eligible for ERA title) 8 times at 158-109.
Joss career ERA+ was 142 with no decline. Rube's was 135 in 600 more IP, and was 146 during those 8 peak years.
So Rube was more effective during his peak. Do several years at 34-37 versus Joss at 0-0 push Joss ahead? If you want to argue as much, this is the other fallacy represented here--the inference is that 34-37 (actually, outside of his 8 peak years 35-34 with an ERA+ that is still around 108) is of negative value. This is not a generally accepted interpretation, either.
The issue with Waddell is whether his ERA+ is especially misleading because of UER, though his RA+ is still pretty good. But for those who feel the UER diminish Waddell's case, fine, but it doesn't have anything to do with making a stronger candidate of Addie Joss.
For the record, both were on my ballot last time, but I have Waddell higher and I am pretty sure I always will.
When BP factors in all of Waddell's unearned runs, and factors in the fact that Joss played most of his career for contenders with good defenses, BP comes to the conclusion that they were just about equally effective, Waddell 3.63 DERA and Joss 3.65 (4.50 being average). When you consider Waddell's 600+ IP edge, Waddell comes out ahead, though neither are on my ballot.
I'm not trying to avoid engaging the person whose ballot this is, but I thought it more appropriate to discuss here or on the discussion thread rather than on the ballot thread.
ps look at Clayton Kershaw's career to date. I think he compares favorably to both Koufax and Joss at a similar point to where their careers ended. And technically, 2018 will be his age 30 season. Mike Trout is getting pretty darn close to electable himself.
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