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Hall of Merit— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Friday, January 06, 2017
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1. Jack Sommers Posted: January 08, 2017 at 03:11 PM (#5379785)Rk Player WAA/pos Rbat Rfield OPS+ PA R HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Mickey Mantle 63.9 573.8 15.4 175 6697 1244 374 1063 1129 1136 .308 .425 .579 1.004
2 Ty Cobb 61.0 550.9 4.0 182 6596 1134 57 975 597 459 .369 .433 .510 .943
3 Tris Speaker 49.2 418.6 60.0 169 5814 896 43 681 608 269 .344 .422 .485 .907
4 Willie Mays 48.4 364.6 90.1 158 5301 884 279 812 566 505 .317 .390 .585 .975
5 Ken Griffey 47.8 357.2 73.0 149 6688 1063 398 1152 747 984 .299 .380 .569 .948
6 Andruw Jones 38.0 133.7 219.7 116 6617 962 342 1023 647 1256 .267 .345 .505 .850
7 Mike Trout 36.5 293.7 16.0 170 3558 600 168 497 477 784 .306 .405 .557 .963
8 Joe DiMaggio 34.7 333.1 46.0 159 4418 858 219 930 404 196 .339 .403 .607 1.010
9 Duke Snider 32.4 288.9 30.0 144 5494 903 276 911 615 770 .306 .385 .557 .942
10 Cesar Cedeno 29.8 215.8 10.9 130 6051 848 158 744 510 704 .290 .353 .458 .811
11 Andre Dawson 27.2 134.5 85.4 123 5022 698 182 669 288 725 .282 .328 .479 .807
12 Chet Lemon 24.2 163.7 76.7 127 4857 633 136 545 442 599 .282 .361 .457 .819
13 Richie Ashburn 23.6 132.7 87.6 112 6109 837 19 413 676 321 .313 .393 .393 .787
14 Carlos Beltran 23.2 114.4 44.1 115 5178 826 203 763 522 836 .281 .355 .492 .847
15 Reggie Smith 22.9 166.4 57.8 133 4863 671 172 636 496 568 .285 .359 .478 .837
16 Vada Pinson 22.7 167.8 -0.9 119 6851 978 186 814 409 831 .297 .341 .469 .810
17 Andrew McCutchen 22.0 236.9 -58.0 138 5179 720 175 637 612 922 .292 .381 .487 .869
18 Larry Doby 21.9 188.5 18.0 145 3570 582 144 530 531 562 .288 .400 .504 .903
19 Kenny Lofton 20.5 72.5 65.0 115 3175 551 39 261 307 343 .313 .379 .431 .811
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/8/2017.
The candidates I see are Jimmy Wynn, 1971 (age 29, 123 G, -0.9 WAR) and Andrew Jones, 2008 (age 31, 75G, -1.6 WAR).
Wynn came back from that to have at least one MVP-quality season later in his career. Jones had better years than that but was never again even a good regular. (He had had a 2007 that wasn’t up to his previous standards, but a lot of people - me included - were expecting him to bounce back from that.)
Can you find a collection of 2008 pitchers who add up to that many (238) PA and collectively hit petter than Jones?
OK, he’s not a career candidate. His case will be based entirely on what he did from 1997 through 2006 or 2007, and will rest to an uncommonly large degree on assessments of his defensive value. I expect whatever substantive discussion there is to focus on that defensive value.
The way bb-ref records defensive value is different in when PBP metrics are available compared to earlier times, right? And the spread of value under PBP metrics is wider than the spread of value based on things like adjusted range factors, right? I have to admit that under the chart shoewizard posted, seeing Jones with more than twice the defensive value of Willie Mays over the same ages is a little hard to swallow.
Here are Fangraphs' all time outfield defense leaders:
Outfielders by Defensive Value (Fangraphs)
There isn't really a great comparison to Andruw Jones among these defensive leaders. Clemente, Bonds, Mays, Yaz, and Kaline are all probably HoMers without their otherworldly defense. Paul Blair and Jim Piersall weren't particularly good hitters.
That leaves Jesse Barfield. Now Andruw was a better defender than Barfield, and he also played in center as opposed to right. But do I feel confident in saying that Jones is THAT much better than Barfield? Baseball Prospectus prefers Barfield's glove to Jones' before positional adjustment.
I'm gonna take a longer look here.
The most prominent Braves pitchers from 1997-2007 are Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine, Hudson, and Millwood. Not a bad bunch.
I should also note that the Braves had one of the best defenses in baseball both before Andruw Jones and during his tenure. Even if you replaced him with an average defender, they'd be top 5 in the league.
Maddux was a groundball guy, so he's going to see less of an effect, but if anything, Maddux gets worse when Jones arrives. His BABIP in 1996 jumped, but Jones' arrival in 1997 does nothing to change that. Maddux isn't the same pitcher after he leaves Atlanta in 2004, but his last year in Atlanta is around the same level as his post Atlanta years. If you shifted all of Maddux's years foward one, you could make a pretty good narrative either way on Jones' effect, but as is... it's hard to say.
Smoltz doesn't do enough after Jones to really say anything, but he is better after Jones starts playing. But once again the big shift in Smoltz's rate stats comes in 1996, not 1997.
Glavine's rate stats ALSO improve in 1996. But they also get a lot worse once he goes to the Mets. This might be the best case in favor of Andruw Jones' defense.
Hudson is only in Atlanta in the latter half of Jones' tenure and he's another groundball pitcher. His rate stats get worse when moving from Oakland to Atlanta (understandible considering the foul territory in Oakland). In 2008, the first season without Jones, Hudson only has half a season, but his BABIP sees a huge drop. It had been around .290 for his three years with Jones, but in 2008 it goes down to .262. With the exception of a big blip in 2009, Hudson's BABIP in Atlanta is generally significantly lower without Jones.
Millwood is basically the same guy after he leaves Atlanta in 2003.
One last intersting thing to note. Andruw Jones, JD Drew, and Brian Jordan went from Atlanta to the Dodgers in this period, and for all three players, their outfield defensive stats significantly declined. Gary Sheffield went from LA to Atlanta, and his defense improved from awful to okay (and it went subsequentially back to awful in New York).
There looks to be something weird going on with defensive metrics and Atlanta outfielders. I'm feeling even shakier about Andruw Jones.
DRS is used by Baseball-Reference after 2003 and UZR by Fangraphs after 2002.
Total Zone is used by both prior to that time frame.
DRA is used by Baseball Gauge.
I think this pattern, while interesting, dissipates if we look at the actual players in question.
- Brian Jordan was just as good of a defender for years in STL before moving to ATL; he battled injures his entire time in LAD.
- JD Drew seems to have played about same level of defense from 22-30, from STL to ATL to LAD on a rate basis. His year in ATL stands out a because that was the only year in that period that he actually stayed on the field. Even his first year in LAD, he generated DRS at the exact same rate as ATL (6 in 72 games vs. 15 in 145).
- Jones notoriously became a ridiculous physically embarrassment in LA, and his body basically collapsed.
- Sheffield is the most interesting; can't say for sure why he has better numbers in ATL, but he did make a big show of playing the part and behaving himself in ATL. Perhaps that extended to his defense.
In terms of other Braves' OF who played at Turner, some counterpoints:
- Heyward has maintained his high defensive numbers after the move to Wrigley.
- Francouer initially maintained his high level after moving to the Mets, though quickly declined.
- Michael Bourn had outlandishly good defensive years at both Turner Field and Enron.
- Nate McLouth had outlandishly poor defensive years at both Turner and PNC.
- Lofton was good in both ATL and CLE.
Having watched a large portion of Andruw Jones' career, his defensive stats are pretty much what I would have expected. An absolute joy to watch.
I just can't see how someone can be 80-100 runs better with the glove than any other player especially when all that value was generated in just 11 years of productivity.
And the metrics just love Atlanta's defense in general in this era. I'm not sure why but I think there are two possible causes.
1. Braves pitchers were great at producing weak contact. Maddux and Glavine were both career FIP beaters.
2. I am admittedly not familiar with the Braves coaching staffs of this era so I can't say anything definitively, but based on their continuously good defense's I think they might have had really good defensive positioning, which can be an explication for sudden defenaive improvement.
I feel pretty good about the first part, the second part I'm less sure about and will have to research.
If Andruw Jones is the defender that the metric say he is, he's clearly a HoMer to me. But for a guy with a short career and not a whole lot of value outside his glove, I think it's worth the time investigating and a first look hasn't eased my concerns.
Jim Edmonds is a 6.2 FWAA. I believe Andruw could be 10 wins better than him and 3 wins better than Mays. Tris Speaker tops Andruw at 19.2.
According to Chris Dial, he was.
The defensive metrics on BBref are mine through 2002, from BIS from 2003 on. I trust them generally to be right on who is good and bad defensively, but I'm not completely sold here. I would not vote for Andruw if your vote depends on him being the greatest rate stat center fielder to ever play.
I would regress things like this: Identify the top 3-5 other center fielders, average their rates, and apply to Andruw. If he's still over the line when you consider him as one of the very best defensive center fielders, then vote for him.
But if your vote depends on him being superior in the field to Willie Mays, Devon White, and Garry Maddox, then don't do it. He might have been, but I don't have enough faith in that.
Also, click on the advanced tab of the BBref fielding table. By TZ, Jones is +165 for range, and +55 for arm. To check on the range part you'd need to play with retrosheet and come up with your own fielding system. If you are up for it, I highly encourage it, but in the decade since I published TZ I can count on one hand the number of people who have done so and published results, so I realize its not for everyone. But the +55 for OF arm, which is an incredibly huge amount, can be verified. Go look at the breakdown of how many runners went 1st-3rd, scored from 3rd on flyballs, etc. Compare it to another outfielder. Does the rating make sense? All the data is there for anyone who wants to confirm or refute that total.
"Some combination of the [John] Walsh and [Sean] Smith defensive runs estimates for runners held would boost Andruw Jones to close to 250 career defensive runs, and a TPAR total comfortably ahead of Mays. Jones was always a power hitter, typically hitting thirty-fiver homers a year. Prior to the 2005 season he worked out, bulked up, hit fifty-one homeruns--and had his first negative DRA rating.
With the possible exception of Richie Ashburn, Andruw Jones in his peak seasons (however defined) recorded more putouts relative to his contemporary centerfielders, given the total number of batted allowed by his team's pitchers, than anyone in history. With the possible exception of Tris Speaker and Paul Blair, Andruw Jones has also played the most shallow centerfield relative to his contemporary centerfielders than anyone in history.
The two facts are connected: Jones has positioned himself to catch a high number of short high flies that would normally be caught by middle-infielders. He obviously shouldn't be given credit for making plays on what amount to automatic outs that could readily be made by any one of two or three fielders. DRA has an adjustment that takes this into account, and it has a substantial impact on Jones's DRA rating, so I believe that the numbers for Jones reasonably measure this real value to this teams. The Smith for 1997-99, which used batted ball data and calculation methods that would generally avoid crediting Jones for a lot of runs saved by taking discretionary chances, is nearly identical for that period.
Despite his disappointingly early decline, Andruw Jones deserves to be elected to the Hall of Fame [Merit]. Based on Sean Smith's WAR, Jones had four seasons of MVP-candidate value (1998-2000 and 2005); three exceptionally strong all-star quality seasons (2002-03 and 2006), and three more seasons that were well above average (1997, 2001, and 2004). As he would have had at most only four borderline all-star quality seasons without his well-documented defensive value, it will be interesting to see if and when Hall of Fame voters recognize his excellence."
Humphrey's has tweaked DRA value since the book hit publication, but Andruw's overall defensive value remains the same, ~20 wins worth of value. As the great doc has mentioned, DRA does not include outfielder arm values. His R-Of equates to almost 50 runs or another ~5 wins, consistent with what Mike noted in his novel.
It also suggests that OF with big DRS/UZR numbers are probably stealing high probability outs from other players.
BTW - Devon White averaged 1 FWAA over his 12 full seasons (RField 156). Tris Speaker put up 17 FWAA over his first 13 seasons (RField of 90).
Let's take a look at Jones' best season of RField. In 1999 he posted a +36. His fellow outfielders also scored quite high - Brian Jordan was +17, Gerald Williams +10. That's an outfield total of +63. Meanwhile the infielders Weiss, Klesko, Chipper Jones and Bret Boone were a collective -37. None of those infielders were that great but they were all better in RField in 1998 and 2000 than in 1999.
My rough estimate is "35 more catches than Ender Inciarte made last year".
Lemon had slightly more on-base ability, Jones slightly more power. They played in radically different contexts; Jones's time was much more hitter-friendly and had higher standard deviations.
Jones is in the conversation with Speaker, Ashburn, Max Carey, and Mays for "greatest defensive CF ever". Lemon was an excellent defensive CF, but not quite as superlative.
Lemon vs. Jones is a hard case - so difficult that I like Jones's candidacy less.
PS: How could anyone look at Chet Lemon and Steve Kemp heads-up and decide, "We want Kemp"? Were the RBI really enough to fool the White Sox?
35 years ago? yes.
Waaay back in the day Kemp was one of those guys who for awhile was held in far higher regard than his performance/physical tools seemed to warrant, you got the impression that folks thought he'd have an FRobbie type career...
Didn't see him a lot until he came to the Yankees, looked like like a complete nothingburger (and for the Yankees he was)
Kemp blames an eye injury he suffered in 1983 for derailing his career, but he was in premature decline before then
Or was it something like a foul ball hitting him in the eye? He didn't play after September 6.
Kemp's record before 1983 doesn't look like premature decline - though 1983 itself does. He was a solid player, a patient lefty bat good for 20 homers per year. His 1983 season was bad. At the time it was looked at as him not being able to handle the pressure of NYC, or his contract. Yankees signed him to a 5 year, 5.45 million deal which with baseball inflation is probably equivalent to a 5 year, 100 million deal today. They probably had ideas about him using the short porch in right to become a 30 homer man.
Trading him for Lemon turned out a horrible move for White Sox and a great one for the Tigers. Kemp was one year away from free agency. They were the same age. Lemon had enough service time to be a free agent, I don't know his contract situation was at the time of the trade.
"After struggling most of the season with a bone chip in his right shoulder, Kemp was standing in left field playing catch before a game.
A line drive off the bat of Omar Moreno hit the unsuspecting Kemp just below his left eye, shattering his cheekbone."
http://articles.latimes.com/1991-03-05/sports/sp-319_1_future-major
http://baseball.tomthress.com/StatTables/PlayerStats.php?id=jonea002
http://baseball.tomthress.com/StatTables/FieldingStats.php?id=jonea002
Nearly 8 of his 9.5 fielding wins are from component 5, hits versus outs on balls in play.
Does the split seem ok between batters, pitchers, fielders on this?
http://baseball.tomthress.com/Leaders/Leaders.php?y=&y1;=&y2;=&l=&a=c&s=c5&n=50
For component 5, Andruw places 32nd overall in career NET fielding wins.
http://baseball.tomthress.com/Leaders/Leaders.php?y=&y1;=&y2;=&l=&a=c&n=50&s=f8
Andruw scores the 3rd most overall CF fielding wins: Amos Otis 9.1, Willie Davis 8.9, Andruw Jones 8.3, Curt Flood 8.1, Duke Snider 7.4, Paul Blair 6.0, Joe DiMaggio 5.9, Jim Edmonds 5.1, Dave Henderson 4.7, and Andre Dawson 4.5.
http://baseball.tomthress.com/StatTables/Similars.php?id=jonea002
The most similar players comprise 5 hall of meriters, 2 likely future hall of meriters, and 3 good but short of hall of merit players (so far).
http://baseball.tomthress.com/Leaders/UberLeaders.php?y1=1930&y2=2016&p=0.5&e=0.5&w=0.137&a=2.012&a2=0.813&r=1&na=0&nr=0&c=1.127&b1=0.929&b2=1.005&b3=0.961&ss=0.929&lf=0.961&cf=0.961&rf=0.961&dh=0.929&ph=0.961&pr=0.961&o1=0.976&sp=0.976&rp=1.510&psw=1&psa=1&psr=1>=162&ga=1&n=250
A key stat iteration places him in the electable, but not priority eligibles.
His post-season WPA adds no value, although is .796 OPS would indicate league averageish performance in 279 PA, roughly a win in Kiko pWROL.
He doesn't get a boost from situational (RE24) hitting either.
Interesting candidate!
Serious candidate, probably at least borderline Personal Hall of Merit for me, but somewhere in the 30-40 range for this year as I have a pretty good number of pHOM-not-HOM guys that I like more.
My system basically ends up treating him the way that AROM suggested in comment #12: "Identify the top 3-5 other center fielders, average their rates, and apply to Andruw. If he's still over the line when you consider him as one of the very best defensive center fielders, then vote for him." He's clearly among the best defensive CF by my system, but not head-and-shoulders above everybody else. Pretty good hitter with good power (which my system likes) in his prime. His prime was a decent length and my current weighting scheme zeroes out negatives, so his collapse isn't hurting him, but he's not picking up anything in his post-prime like a lot of guys who manage to stay above at least replacement level, if not average, for a few years.
Reading through this thread, I think in some ways the comp I like best may be Jesse Barfield. Excellent defenders - on the strength on one extraordinary skill (range for Jones, arm for Barfield) and above-average skill elsewhere (i.e., good arm for Jones, good range for Barfield). Both were good, power-heavy hitters in their prime, but both had very short careers as a good, or even useful, player. Jones played the more important defensive position and had a somewhat longer prime, so he ends up considerably higher in my consideration set than Barfield (who's maybe top 200 among 2018 HOM candidates for me), but broadly similar skill set and career shape.
https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/captain_obvious/
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