Should be an interesting thread.

Group 2 ballot. The comments are copied from my HoM ballot in the year in brackets, e.g., [1983].

1. Bobby Grich [1992] A balanced candidate, offense and defense both. Would place ahead of several already elected second basemen, notably including Gordon and Doerr.

2. Ron Santo [1980] Sure, he may be a creature of Wrigley Field - but even if he was, real wins resulted from that. An offensive prime that we can group with legitimate candidates from the left side of the defensive spectrum, but he played 3B. I don't know if making him a 2B at the end rises to the level of 100 worst management blunders - but it can't have been a good idea.

3. Dick Allen [1983] I don't have to bother mentioning the flaws. But I direct your attention to my post #263 on his thread. The analysis can't escape from dealing with the kind of offensive force he was.

4. Ted Simmons [1994] Not an inner circle type, but a solid career as a catcher. A "line drive" hitter - high BA, medium power. After Gibson retired in 1975, the late-70's Cardinals had one Hall of Famer: Lou Brock. Now it looks like that team will have at least one HoMer, and a chance at a second - and it won't be Brock in either case. (Nor will it be the most entertaining member of the team, Al "The Mad Hungarian" Hrabosky.)

5. Joe Torre [1983] Not enough to be elected as a pure "bat" candidate (which is what I'm considering both Williams and Allen), but it would be enough as a 3B, and he caught more games than Bresnahan.

6. Billy Pierce [1983] With that many "bat" candidates, it's time for something else. Underappreciated by both the HoF and (so far) us.

7. Darrell Evans [1995] Far from a slam-dunk candidate. To be honest, I'm skeptical of the defensive value. But I've got him a little better than the 3rd basemen I have been voting for (Bando, Elliott, Cey) and with a crammed-together backlog, that puts him all the way up here.

8. Bill Freehan [1983] The tricky part is comparing a mostly-catcher candidate like Freehan to our part-catcher candidates: Bresnahan, Schang, Trouppe, and (coming soon), Torre. A terrific two-year peak, a solid career.

9. Jimmy Wynn [1983] An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.

10. Orestes Miñoso [1983] This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value. Not the offensive value of the big HR hitters, but more mobile on defense.

11. Ken Boyer [1983] Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.

12. Graig Nettles [1995] Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott.

5. Joe Torre [1983] Not enough to be elected as a pure "bat" candidate (which is what I'm considering both Williams and Allen)

Williams?

quoting OCF again
> The comments are copied from my HoM ballot in the year in brackets, e.g., [1983].

ok, i' versteh'

Easy HoM/HoFers

1. Santo--was #4 on my ballot the year he was elected behind Kaline, Dobie Moore and Kiner
2. Grich--was #2 behind Seaver and ahead of Fingers

Solid Citizens

3. Minoso--#11, one of history's most under-rated players, even by me
4. Simmons--#3 behind Niekro and Roush, ahead of Keller
5. Allen--#2 between Moore and Kiner, probably could rank higher
6. Freehan--#4 after Moore, Waddell and Roush and ahead of Browning
7. Torre--#10 after Moore, Kiner, Waddell, Brooksie, Freehan, Doyle, Roush, Browning and Fox
8. J. Wynn--#27 but was re-eval and made PHoM later on

The Borderline Runs Directly Through It

9. Da. Evans--#18, made PHoM later on

Not Good (Choices)

10. Nettles--honorable mention (not top 50), though I would now agree that is too low.
11. Boyer--#22, not PHoM
12. Pierce--#36, not PHoM, Don Newcombe is the obvious choice of that cohort

Re: posts #3 and 4.

Obviously, Paul got it, but in case anyone else is still mystified, the "Williams" in question was Billy Williams, who as #1 on my 1983 ballot.

Seems like everybody is in a rush here to get this portion of the project finished quickly, I see. :-)

We'll all be sorry when we've used up all our Xmas presents and it's still not April! Certainly we should do 3 and 4 more slowly, as they are more difficult , with a larger time spread and less information. However, this one's easy (and uninteresting) enough:

1. Ted Simmons 1994 3rd Longish career, esp. for a catcher and pretty good – his 118 becomes 138 when adjusted to OF, easily HOMable. 24732 hits. TB+BB/PA.479 TB+BB/Outs .700

2. Dick Allen 1983 7th Not quite Browning, better than Jones. OPS+156 but short career (1848 hits) TB+BB/PA .584, TB+BB/Outs .895. MUCH better than Kiner.

3. Joe Torre 1984 7th Super hitter for a catcher or 3B, which he was most of the time. OPS+129, 2342 hits. TB+BB/PA.493, TB+BB/Outs .734.

4. Bobby Grich 1992 9th 1859 hits @125. TB+BB/PA .487, TB+BB/Outs .734. Very short career, but good. Lombardi and Stephens look like comps.

5. Ron Santo 1980 12th OPS+ 125, which becomes about 135 equivalent for an OF. 2254 hits. TB+BB/PA .520, TB+BB/Outs .777. Just a touch better than Childs, equivalent position, slightly longer career.

6. Billy Pierce 1987 16th Surprisngly good ERA+ in weaker league but not a Yankee. 3307 innings at 119 ERA+ 211-169 definitely better than Redding and Quinn, somewhere around Maglie. Swayed by consensus so moved him up towards ballot.

7. Darrell Evans 1995 67th 2223 hits at 119; about 60% 3B, so 9 bonus makes him 128, good, but not enough for ballot. TB+BB/PA .509, TB+BB/Outs .773. Moved him up a couple of spots, as I think 67th underrated him.

8. Minnie Minoso 1987 20th Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759

9. Ken Boyer 1991 38th Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.

10. Bill Freehan 1985 47th Much shorter career than McGuire, and only slightly better. 1591 hits at OPS+112 (1636 adjusted to 130 game season.) TB+BB/PA .453, TB+BB/Outs .653.

11. Graig Nettles 2006 89th On consideration set but way off ballot. Medium career, not that good – always hated him when he was a Yankee, too. TB+BB/PA .476, TB+BB/Outs .686.

12. Jimmy Wynn 1996 OFF Wynn not nearly good enough a hitter; think we’re giving an excessive CF premium compared to other OF positions. Lynn was in any case much much better.

1. Minnie Minoso - very underrated even if you just include MLB time, and he is worth more than that.

2. Jimmy Wynn - An oddity for me... a player that is more peak(s) than career.

3. Ken Boyer - People keep comparing him to Elliott, but his defense slots him way higher, imo.

4. Ron Santo - Deserving. Period.

5. Darrell Evans
6. Graig Nettles

Neither are respected enough compared to their value.

7. Ted Simmons - Who says I undervalue catchers? Well, maybe Billy Freehan.

8. Dick Allen - Holding my nose here.

9. Joe Torre - His management career has overshadowed a HoF caliber playing career.

10. Bobby Grich - I'm not as high on him as some, but a solid candidate.

11. Bill Freehan - FOr me he was a backlogger he finally got in my PHoM.

12. Billy Pierce - Th eonly guy on this list who is not in my PHoM.

My values, and ballot:

Inner circle (roughly top 20% of the HoM, $270M+): Nobody

Elite (roughly 50th-80th percentile, $200-$270M):

1. Bobby Grich, $215M. Just an extraordinary player--why is there so much more of a bandwagon around Santo than Grich? A 125 OPS+ second baseman who's one of the best fielders evar at his position (zeroing out below-average seasons, DRA has him as the 7th-best fielding MLB 2B since 1893)? Here is where I have him ranked among position players in the AL, by year: 1972 #4, 1973 #1 (trusting the numbers that his defense was historically great that year), 1974 #2, 1975 #3, 1976 #1 (tied with Brett and Nettles), 1977 hurt, 1978 #18, 1979 #6, 1980 #17, 1981 #3 (in an amazing keystone combo with Rick Burleson), 1982 #25, 1983 #15. I mean, that is just an *amazing* run. #6 2B all-time (behind Hornsby, Collins, Lajoie, Morgan, Gehringer). I just can't find enough good things to say about this guy. A no-doubt superstar and perennial MVP candidate for a decade. I very strongly hope Grich emerges as the class of this group, and that our final ranking demonstrates that he is one of the absolute most egregious omissions from the Hall of Fame. Would the Grich skeptics please stand up for debate? Rusty, #10??

Imperfect but clear inductees (roughly 30th-50th percentile, $175-$200M):

2. Ron Santo, $193M. God peak from 1963-68, but only one other All-Star caliber year (1972). So phenomenally dominant for six straight years (Rank among NL position players: 1963 #7, 1964 #2 to Mays by a nose, 1965 #3, 1966 #1, 1967 #1, 1968 #7) that he is a no-brainer HoM selection, but can't stand up to Grich on long prime. Worth noting that DRA is not as impressed with Santo's fielding as FRAA and Fielding WS are, seeing him as more of a +10 guy at his peak than +15-+20. Then again, DRA does not yet have a park adjustment, and Wrigley was a hitters' paradise in those days, so that might have something to do with it.

3. Dick Allen, $183M. Best hitter not in the Hall of Fame who didn't throw a World Series or refuse to answer questions before Congress. The player everyone thinks Jim Rice was.

4. Ted Simmons, $182M. Astonishingly bad baserunner, zillions of DP's, even for a catcher. C replacement level was fairly high when he played (and it goes all the way up the distribution; think of all the great catchers of the era! Him, Bench, Fisk, Carter, Munson, Tenace...) His 1984 is one of the worst seasons by anyone in major league history. But, he's one of the best hitters evar at his position.

5. Darrell Evans, $183M. A 1B/3B like Allen, much worse hitter, much better fielder, much longer career. Tie broken by the doubt raised on these boards about the validity of his defensive stats (though DRA is very impressed with them as well).

Weak HoM'ers (roughly 15th-30th percentile, $160-$175M)

6. Saturnino Orestes Armas Arrieta Miñoso, $171M (including Negro League credit). Nice decade-long prime as a consistent high All-Star type player, with one season (1954) when he should have been the league MVP. Mix of skills, overall value, and career shape similar to Dwight Evans. Whoever let him attempt to steal bases should have been fired--cost his MLB teams 3.2 wins on the basepaths. League strength concerns bump him down a bit, but not $7M.

7. Graig Nettles, $164M. A defensive giant with a long career in a low-stdev era; low batting averages led him to be underrated.

Borderliners (bottom 15%, $150-$160M)

8. Jimmy Wynn, $158M. I'm not wild about him, but 5 years among the best players in his league and a handful of other All-Star seasons is a strong, if non-consecutive, prime.

9. Bill Freehan, $157M. Back-to-back terrific peak years, and 3-4 other All-Star seasons scattered in there. Seems pretty unimpressive, but the HoM standard for catchers has to be that low or there just won't be any catchers.

Not PHoM, below $150M

10. Ken Boyer, $148M
Ick. Superficially similar to Santo, whom he shared a league and position with for a bit, in that he only had 8 years as an above-average player (Santo had 9). To make the HoM with such a short career, you need a transcendent peak. While Santo had one, Boyer's was merely very good.

11. Billy Pierce, $141M. Again, would need a higher peak given the career length (his crazy ERA+ year was short on IP), or a longer career given the peak.

12. Joe Torre, $141M. Note to users of my system: Torre is one of those multi-position players that really crosses it up. He's definitely overrated in my public spreadsheet (his corrected numbers are on this ballot's discussion thread). Like Simmons, a DP machine even for a catcher. Unlike Simmons, was only half a catcher. 1971 doesn't look so hot after you plug in a Ryan Braun-esque -35 runs in the field per DRA. One of the worst players in the HoM--near Nellie Fox territory.

It was quite a shock last week to be at the bottom of the consensus scores. My misunderstanding of Trammell's value came back to haunt me. I hope to be closer to the median this time.

1. Simmons -- the catcher bonus is important. He probably ranks highest in his position of all these players.
2. Santo -- I think he is a step above the other throwing infielders.

3. Allen -- clearly the best hitter on the ballot
4. Grich -- I have Grich and Nettles pretty much exactly tied. The consensus seems to prefer Grich by a lot and I find their arguments convincing enough.
5. Nettles -- I love the defense.
6. Evans -- good long career. I certainly never thought I was watching a HoMer.
7. Torre -- difficult to evaluate given his multi-positions, but head to head with Freehan I see him as slightly better.
8. Freehan -- I had Torre and Freehan on the same ballot and Torre one spot ahead. Deja vu.
9. Boyer -- I see him as the weakest of the throwing infielders. No real peak, either.

10. Minoso -- he is the first one on this ballot whom I didn't have in my top 30 at any point. I am not giving any credit for his work in the 70s and 80s. I really don't see the argument for him as a HoMer. I don't give a lot of NL credit for guys who hit the MLs at the age of 25.
11. Pierce -- I see him as equal to Stieb, who was 11th on my ballot last week.
12. Wynn -- my context adjusting skills simply don't match with the electorate.

Small point: for the thread heading to be technically correct it should say "careers 1943-1989".

Then, to the first sentence should be added, after "Group 2 is currently under jurisdiction of the Veterans Committee", add "or will come under VC jurisdiction in less than a year." This covers Darrell Evans, who is technically elgible for the 2009 BBWAA election, afer which he will fall under VC purview.

Group 2 ranking

1. Bobby Grich. 20.1 BWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 12 AS. 1992 – 3 (behind Seaver, Rose). Phenomenal overlooked player. Anywhere from #5 to #7 all-time best 2B (behind the big 4 of Collins, Hornsby, Morgan, Lajoie, and in a bunch with Biggio, Alomar, Gehringer and Robinson.)

2. Dick Allen. 29.9 BWS/700PA, 6 MVP, 9 AS. 1983 – 1. Johnny Mize-like hitting in Mize-like career at-bats. No war credit for Richie, though. I have him as the #12 all-time 1B.

3. Ron Santo. 19.0 BWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 8 AS. 1980 – 2 (behind Kaline). I was less impressed by Santo than others. About #12 all-time 3B to me.

4. Ted Simmons. 17.5 BWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 13 AS. 1994 – 2 (behind Niekro). Fielding hurts him. Surprisingly not as good a hitter as I remembered. #13 All-time catcher.

5. Bill Freehan. 17.8 BWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. 1982 – 10, 1983 – 9, 1984 – 7, 1985 – 6. (Ahead of Torre and Bresnahan.) #14 all-time catcher.

6. Joe Torre. 20.5 BWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. 1983 – 10, 1984 – 8. #15 all-time catcher. Solid hitter, especially for a catcher. Benefited more than Simmons and Freehan from a late-career position switch.

7. Darrell Evans. 19.2 BWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 11 AS. 1995 – 4 (behind Schmidt, Redding, Browning). About #13 all-time 3B on my list.

8. Jimmy Wynn. 22.8 BWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. 1986 – 14, 1987 – 13, 1988 – 14, 1991 – 14, 1992 – 15, 1994 – 15, 1995 – 15, 1996 – 14. Always just ahead of Minoso. Comparable to Jim Edmonds without the fielding. Definitely a borderline HOMer.

9. Minnie Minoso. 21.8 BWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. (including MLE) – 1973 – 15, 1975 – 14, 1976 – 13, 1977 – 13, 1978 – 14, 1979 – 13, 1981 – 15, 1986 – 15, 1987 – 14. Similar to Bob Johnson (late career start, solid, if unspectacular career). Borderline HOMer.

10. Billy Pierce. 22.1 PWS/300IP, 2 MVP, 7 AS. Never on my ballot. Between Stan Coveleski and Larry Jackson in my ratings, I think Pierce was closer to Jackson, and is thus borderline.

11. Graig Nettles. 15.7 BWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. 2006 – 15. Benefited by Boyer’s election. Very borderline.

12. Ken Boyer. 17.9 BWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. – Never on my ballot. I never understood his election. Not a big career, not a high peak. Could be at the bottom of my overall rankings.

1) Bobby Grich - same neighborhood as Frisch, Yount, Cronin
2) Ron Santo - Just a tick below Grich, better bat but 3B is supposed to have a better bat. Very good glove also.
3) Darrell Evans - Well rounded, good glove and good bat
4) Billy Pierce - I rate pitchers higher than consensus. Pierce is comparable to Tiant, Drysdale, Bunning, Marichal
5) Joe Torre - Nearly as good with the bat as Santo, not nearly as good with the glove
6) Ted Simmons - Weaker bat than I thought and not always a fulltime catcher
7) Graig Nettles - Well rounded, great glove and good bat
8) Bill Freehan - Only recently made PHoM, Freehan and Mackey define the borderline at C.
9) Dick Allen - I rated him much higher when he was elected, short career and only a fair defender
10) Minnie Minoso - Gets 1 bonus season for NgL credit, would rank higher in a HoF discussion than a HoM discussion because of pioneer credit
11) Ken Boyer - Pretty much equal with Willie Randolph, the borderline defining 3B
12) Jim Wynn - only player listed not PHoM, I tend to have CF lower than consensus though and he's not that far away

11. Daryn Posted: February 05, 2008 at 09:27 AM (#2683935)
It was quite a shock last week to be at the bottom of the consensus scores. My misunderstanding of Trammell's value came back to haunt me. I hope to be closer to the median this time.

Daryn, well, you won't be on the bottom. Have you seen Rusty's ballot? Wow.

I supported these candidate when they were eligible:

1) Ron Santo-3B (n/e): Stands out to a greater extent among historical third baseman than the rest of Group 2, IMO. Best ML third baseman for 1967 and 1968.
2) Dick Allen-1B/3B (n/e): Terrific peak and a long enough career for me (with enough games at a demanding position, to boot). I have no doubt that Allen could have made things easier for his teams and himself, but I have yet to hear anything that he did that actually hurt his teams. Best ML third baseman for 1964, 1965, and 1966. Best NL left fielder for 1968. Best ML first baseman for 1972 (close in 1974). Best AL first baseman for 1974.

3) Ted Simmons-C/DH/1B (n/e): One of the most underrated players ever, glad to see that he's a HoMer now. <b>Best NL catcher for 1977 and 1978 (very close to being the best in the majors for both years).

4) Joe Torre-C/1B/3B (3): An outstanding multipositional player, he's a deserving HoM inductee. Best NL catcher for 1964. Best ML catcher for 1966 (close in 1965). Best ML third baseman for 1971.
5) Bobby Grich-2B/SS (n/e): In the same mold of Gordon and Doerr, Grich is an easy HoMer. Best AL shortstop of 1972. Best AL second baseman of 1976. Best ML second baseman of 1979 and 1981.

6) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/DH (9): Relatively short career, but he did a lot with it. Best player at his primary position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, and 1969. Best right fielder for 1972 and 1974.

7) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (14): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

8) Darrell Evans-3B/1B/DH (n/e): If he had been a full-time third baseman, he would be #2 behind Schmidt, but those 1B/DH years hurt him some. Best NL third baseman for 1973, (close in 1978). Best NL first baseman for 1983.
I wasn't as crazy about these guys:

9) Bill Freehan-C: Always close to my ballot when he was eligible, I felt bad that he never made mine.

10) Billy Pierce-P: I have him placed right with Freehan.

11) Graig Nettles-3B: See Freehan and Pierce. Greatest fielding third baseman that I ever saw.

12) Ken Boyer-3B: Easily the worst candidate among this group, IMO. How does he get in, but Traynor doesn't (especially when Traynor stood out to a far greater degree)? Okay, the Sixties were tougher than the Twenties, but...

I'm no friend of Boyer's--he's not in my PHoM--but I certainly don't see a case for putting Pie Traynor ahead of him. Boyer was a far superior hitter (116 OPS+ to 107 in the same career length) *and* a somewhat better fielder (according to the uberstats and DRA). And indeed, the 60's were harder to dominate than the 20's. And as far as peak is concerned, Boyer's 1960 stands far above anything Traynor ever did. The *only* argument favoring Traynor that I can see is that 3B replacement level was much lower when he played. That is certainly the case, and is a substantial factor to consider, but there's no way it outweighs everything else. The unelected 3B who should be in Boyer's spot is McGraw, not Traynor (and to a lesser extent Leach). :)

The *only* argument favoring Traynor that I can see is that 3B replacement level was much lower when he played. That is certainly the case, and is a substantial factor to consider, but there's no way, IMO, it outweighs everything else.

Much better now. :-)

As for fielding, I would take Traynor over Boyer, IMO.

The unelected 3B who should be in Boyer's spot is McGraw, not Traynor (and to a lesser extent Leach). :)

If McGraw had enough playing time, sure, but...

> 3B replacement level was much lower

... if you consider professional baseball as 3 leagues and not two

Grich is not on the level of Gordon and Doerr - he's much better. Like 5-10 points of OPS+ and a slicker glove better.

Daryn, well, you won't be on the bottom. Have you seen Rusty's ballot? Wow.

I haven't been near the bottom in a long while. How exciting. :)

Grich is not on the level of Gordon and Doerr - he's much better. Like 5-10 points of OPS+ and a slicker glove better.

Was that directed at me, DL? If it was, I agree with you that Grich was better.

DL from MN, what do the NgL's have to do with it? I'm just talking about the aggregate performance of the worst starting 3B in Traynor's time vs. Boyer's. It was much worse--but the gap between replacement 3B in the 20s and the 60s is not as big as the gap between Traynor's and Boyer's value above average.

I thought that there was a position shift between third base and second base over the years. Hence, when Laughing Larry Doyle was playing second base, it was a less demanding position than now, while third base was more demanding. I also thought that there was a transition period and that during the period in which Traynor played for the Pirates, third base was a more demanding position than it is now. Checking out the league leaders for sacrifices each year, it does seem that players often sacrificed 30 times in a season.

Maybe Boyer should be compared with an amalgam of Doyle and Traynor...

All of that is correct, Mike Green, and it is reflected in the lower replacement level for 3B in the 1920's. What I am saying is that the gap between Traynor and his weak replacement level is not as big as the gap between Boyer and his higher replacement level. In other words, holding fielding and peakiness equal for now (even though they're not), 3B replacement level did not move up as much from the 20s to the 60s as the 9-point OPS+ gap between Traynor and Boyer.

OK, I agree. Different way of putting it ("position shift" vs. "weak replacement level"), but same content. This is a ballot thread, so I suppose I should zip it.:)

Major league replacement level in the 1920s != Replacement level in the 1960s due to integration. Put Beckwith and Wilson in the majors and replacement level goes up by 2 regulars. I agree there will still be some defensive spectrum shift to account for even after you integrate and I agree that Traynor still isn't that impressive.

I actually include both Beckwith and Wilson (both who were much better than Pie, IMO) when I compare Traynor to his contemporaries, yet I still think he's ballot worthy. Not by much, however. I'm in no way saying that Traynor being left out of the HoM is a travesty, only that I can't see Boyer as being greater than him by a considerable amount. Personally, Bob Elliott should have gone in before either of them.

while third base was more demanding

Exactly the case for Ed Williamson. Vastly better than Pie Traynor with both bat and glove.

Hrm, being better than Traynor is not a strong enough argument for induction...

Vastly better than Pie Traynor with both bat and glove.

I don't see that all, Marc. I believe you're still overrating his 1884 season, especially if you're going by B-R.com. I understand the rationale for using a 3-year factor when calculating park factors, but if there is one park that demands a 1-year factor, it's Lake Front Park in 1884.

John, note that Chicago pitchers actually gave up more runs per game on the road than they did at home in 1884. The White Stockings' star-studded lineup (Anson, Kelly, Gore) took full advantage of the rule change, but opposing batters did not. As a result, the team went 39-17 at home (and 23-33 on the road, even though they outscored their opponents on the road as well--a remarkable feat of Pythagorean incompetence). You might dismiss Williamson's 1884 season as not Meritorious because it resulted from a gimmicky rule change, but it certainly produced real wins for his team.

You might dismiss Williamson's 1884 season as not Meritorious because it resulted from a gimmicky rule change, but it certainly produced real wins for his team.

I'm not dismissing real wins, Dan, or else I would never have had Gavvy Cravath on my ballot for years. Williamson's season was indeed meritorious. I just don't think it should rank as one of the greatest at that position, that's all, which an OPS+ of 169 would lead you to believe.

I actually used to have him on my ballot for decades, BTW, and he was still not that far away from my ballot in later years.

It certainly doesn't hold a candle to McGraw's 1899. :)

Ed Williamson in a nutshell:

He hit 27 HR in 1884, therefore he sucks.

That's about as deep as a lot of the analysis has ever gone.

My point is that the HoM argument for Williamson doesn't have a "27" anywhere in it.

But, "27"

The Chicago park had a short porch. Somebody here knows how long the Stockings played there, I don't, but it wasn't just '84. '84 was the only year they called a ball in the LF porch a HR. Every other year it was a 2B. Anson, Gore, King Kelly, Fred Pfeffer, Dalyrymple, Jimmy Ryan... they all hit balls into that short porch.

1884 NL HR (top 4, all Chicago)

Williamson 27
Pfeffer 25
Dalrymple 22
Anson 21

1883 NL 2B

Williamson 49
Brothers, Buff 41
Burns, Chi 37
Anson 36

1882 NL 2B

Kelly 37
Anson 29
Hines, Prov 28
Williamson 27

I forget who used to vote for Dalyrmple. Nobody ever mentioned cheap HR. I don't remember anybody ever mentioning HoMers Kelly and Anson's cheap 2B. But Ed happened to be better at hitting the ball into that short porch in '84.

He probably would have had a better chance of making the HoM if he hadn't done it which is of course silly. Was he a great hitter? No. But how much do you really discount his 112 career OPS+ because of those HR, unless you also want to call all of his 2B fly ball outs. Then do the same for Gore and Anson and Kelly, too. Call them singles if you must, then remember he is an all-time great defender at 3B except for the 3 years he spent at SS.

The Real Argument

• He was probably the greatest defensive 3B of his day--well, except that he moved to SS for 3 years at age 29-30-31 and led the league in games played as a regular SS one year (played 121-127 and 132 games at SS those years) all for a team that finished 1-3-2.

• His career games 716 at 3B and 450 at SS. Short career? Well he led the league in games played 4 times with 63, 98, 113, 121, so his 1201 games represent about what you could play in those days. He was a regular 3B for 8 years and a SS for 3.

• Ken Boyer was a regular for 1 extra year, though he spent exactly that one year in the OF. His 115 OPS+ versus Ed's 112 doesn't even begin to make up for the vastly greater defensive value that Ed had.

• Traynor was a regular 3B two more years (13 total) than Ed. No SS, no OF, all 3B. OPS+ 107.

So forget 1884. Have you looked at his performance 1878-83 and 85-88 lately? He did play outside of 1884. I mean, '84 was not his best year. Consider '86, when he moved to SS. Led the league in GP and hit .267/.377/.437 (111 OPS+). Or better yet 1887. 132 GP at SS at .250/.352/.385 (126). And those weren't his best years either, BTW, just showing what he did as a SS when asked.

So he was asked to play SS and he did. He was asked (so to speak) to hit HR into a short porch for a year. He did that, too.

But of course all of this has been said many times. And all anybody remembers is "27."

I dunno, sunnyday. Standard deviations were *so* much higher in the 1880s than in the 50s and 60s...I don't have exact leaguewide numbers, but the average NL league leader in OPS+ from 1878-88 (Williamson's career as a starter) was 188, while the average NL league leader in OPS+ from 1955-68 (Boyer's career as a starter) was 172. I'm not seriously advocating using that as a benchmark, as it's obviously quite unscientific, but as a quick'n'dirty test it suggests that players from Boyer's time should get a 16-point OPS+ boost versus players from Williamson's time. So then you'd be talking about a 19-point OPS+ gap, which is pretty substantial. Furthermore, Boyer was a damn good fielder himself in his prime.

Now, I don't support Boyer, and of course there is the counteracting factor of the defensive spectrum shift--3B in Williamson's day sure didn't hit like 3B of Boyer's day. Was the spectrum shift big enough to counteract the standard deviation compression? Maybe it was--I don't have numbers before 1893. But you can't just line up OPS+ from the 1880's and 1950's/60's as an apples-to-apples comparison.

He hit 27 HR in 1884, therefore he sucks.

That's about as deep as a lot of the analysis has ever gone.

Marc, I don't doubt that someone posted something like that, but it's easy to go back to the old threads to see that the vast majority of the analysis done about his season does not resemble your interpretation in any manner, shape or form. You're being unfair here.

He was probably the greatest defensive 3B of his day

He was not greater than Sutton. I know you disagree about that, but the only conclusion that I can come up with is Ed's 1884 season is muddying up the waters, since Sutton's peak was impressive in its own right.

His career games 716 at 3B and 450 at SS. Short career? Well he led the league in games played 4 times with 63, 98, 113, 121, so his 1201 games represent about what you could play in those days. He was a regular 3B for 8 years and a SS for 3.

Since I may be the greatest proponent of taking into account short schedules, no disagreement there. However, it still wasn't a long career.

Ken Boyer was a regular for 1 extra year, though he spent exactly that one year in the OF. His 115 OPS+ versus Ed's 112 doesn't even begin to make up for the vastly greater defensive value that Ed had.

• Traynor was a regular 3B two more years (13 total) than Ed. No SS, no OF, all 3B. OPS+ 107.

You still have to take into account their respective competition. And before you tell me that it undermines "a pennant-for-a-pennant" :-), it doesn't. You know that from a trillion posts of mine how I feel about being fair to all eras.

So he was asked to play SS and he did. He was asked (so to speak) to hit HR into a short porch for a year. He did that, too.

Playing SS is a feather in his cap, granted.

I don't remember anybody ever mentioning HoMers Kelly and Anson's cheap 2B.

Come on, Marc. Did Kelly or Anson need 1884 to make it into the HoM? They were going to sail in, regardless. Nobody gave a rat's ass as to what they did that season, since they accumulated more than enough merit without it. With that said, I'd bet my bank account that at least 90% of the electorate did take it into account. Probably 100%.

He probably would have had a better chance of making the HoM if he hadn't done it which is of course silly.

That makes no sense.

BTW, I'm in an argumentative mood today, though without any rancor on my part. Having a little spare time doesn't hurt, either. :-)

Group 2: 1943-1987


1. Ron Santo -- His peak, by WARP, blows everyone else away. Careerwise, the top three or four are pretty much even.

2. Bobby Grich -- A match for Santo in career value, his peak is in-between Santo and Allen by WARP.

3. Dick Allen -- Win Shares favorite by any measure, but I’ve a lot less faith in that stat than I used too.

4. Darrell Evans - The most career value of anyone on the ballot, by WARP or WS. His peak doesn't stand out at all, however.

5. Ted Simmons -- Great numbers for a catcher, doesn’t need much of a bonus to get up this high.

6. Jimmy Wynn -- Not an exceptionally long career, and his fine peak is artificially deflated by consecutive peak measurments.

7. Minnie Minoso -- A little Negro league credit pads his career totals, but it’s his peak that’s impressive: 4th best on the ballot by WARP.

8. Ken Boyer -- WARP absolutely loves his defense, giving him a 7 year consecutive peak second only to Santo’s. Is WARP overrating 3B defense in the 60s? Why?

9. Billy Pierce -- Win Shares is totally unimpressed, but it's best to ignore that stat when it comes to pitchers. WARP likes him just fine.

10. Joe Torre - Great hitter, not giving him any real catching bonus.

11. Graig Nettles -- Can’t see him over Boyer, but maybe that’s because I’m drunk on WARP’s kool-aid.

12. Bill Freehan -- Needed a catcher bonus to get in the PHOM, doesn’t help too much against this competition. Not bad at all, but someone has to be last.

1. Dick Allen: Just too much offense to ignore, even in a shortish career.
2. Ted Simmons: Too good a hitter at too tough a position to drop him much.
3. Minnie Minoso: I have Grich and Minoso very close together. Grich gets credit for defense at 2B, Minoso gets credit for the Negro Leagues. Minoso goes over the top for speed, but it's still really close.
4. Bobby Grich: I'd forgotten what a good player he was. Defense at 2B puts him ahead of Santo.
5. Ron Santo: I've not been on the Santo for HoF bandwagon, but he really was a wonderful player during his peak with enough career to be in the picture.
6. Billy Pierce: I rate him ahead of Stieb and Saberhagen, but just slightly.
7. Joe Torre: I have trouble rating him due to his multi-positional status. He's virtually tied with Freehan and Evans, so I'm going to give him the nod for his superior hitting.
8. Darrell Evans: As well as he did (when he did well), he had too many seasons that were subpar for a HoF'er. He was one of my favorite players when he was with the Giants. Of course, I seem to feel that way about a lot of past Giant 3B's (Hart, Gallagher, Mueller).
9. Bill Freehan: I remember he hit a HR in the first AL game I ever saw. In spite of that, I'm not bumping him up.
10. Jimmy Wynn: My system probably unfairly hurts him becuase he played at the same time as so many great OF's. I tried to make a case to slide him ahead of Freehan, and then realized I'd have to make the same case to slide him ahead of Evans and Torre as well (all three are close in my formula).
11. Clete Boyer: Neither he nor Nettles would make my ballot for the HoM. Boyer is way closer than Nettles, though.
12. Graig Nettles: His defense was superb, but it would have to be superhuman to get him within sniffing distance of the middle of this ballot. I've seen some argument putting Nettles ahead of Boyer, but my numbers just aren't seeing it.

pocket8pin: I think you missed the response to your post on the discussion thread when that response was phrased as a joke. So I'll be a killjoy and say it plainly: we are talking about Ken Boyer, not Clete Boyer. And Clete's career OPS+ of 86 is just not getting it done.

pocket8pin,

It's Ken, not Clete, Boyer.

And I was using Ken's numbers, LOL.....Oy!

Guess it's a good thing I'd forgotten about Cloyd

Group II ballot

1. BOBBY GRICH - I stumbled months ago onto the description "hit like Doyle, fielded like Grich," and that sums it up. This is a perfect skill-set for me - I want serious hitting in the infield if I can get it, and if you can combine it with great fielding - you're in! 1972-76 and 1979-83 - what more can you ask from an infielder?
2. RON SANTO - I originally thought I'd wind up seeing him as overhyped by SABR types, but instead after a close look he even nosed out Kaline for me in his election year. Tremendous durability from 1961-71 (top 4 in Games Played 7 times), which is even more valuable for a 3B than for an OF. Five Gold Gloves in that span, and many defensive formulas back up his skills there. Only Baker among previous white 3Bs rivals him as a hitter, and he's among the all-time leaders in Gs at 3B.
3. TED SIMMONS - Thru 1983, Simmons was a career 125 OPS+ in 7244 AB. Torre was 129 OPS+ in 7874 AB for his whole career. So Simmons caught almost twice as many games as Torre, yet he was in the same league as Torre as a hitter. Wow. He also was a significantly better than Freehan while playing more games at catcher, though he yields big points to Freehan for defense of course.
4. DICK ALLEN - Lost out on an elect-me slot not as much for his demeanor as for his missed time. Only got to 600 PA five times, probably the worst mark we'll see of any post-expansion hitting candidate. Kiner got to 650 PA, meanwhile, 7 times in a 154-game era. That matters. Allen is one of the most capable hitters in history, a la Pete Browning. But you can't help your team when you aren't on the field, in Allen's case.
5. BILLY PIERCE - Pierce has few rivals in 1945-70 pitching. Bob Gibson-lite, if you ask me. Pierce's leveraged relief IP appear to overcome much of the admitted lack of 'workhorsieness' in terms of IP per year. I wish he got more respect from the crowd.
6. JOE TORRE - He's quite a masher from 1963-71, and gets a positional bonus even if not a fielding bonus (if you accept him as passable in his C or 3B years, that is a huge boost to his team's chances of winning). Hit nearly as well and as long as Billy Williams, and longer than Bob Johnson. It IS hard to slot him due to the three positions he played, but that is NOT a good reason to drop him down low.
7. BILL FREEHAN - A tough one. Two spectacular seasons (1967-68) and four other very good ones. 1974 is a little odd; the 137 OPS+ looks great but he is a 1B-C that year. The 105-106 OPSs in 1969-70 are good for a catcher, too, and he gets a fielding bonus even by catcher standards. 11 times an All-Star, a big number.
8. MINNIE MINOSO - Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but I was disappointed to see that such negligible Negro Leagues credit was due. I thought he was a better player there than we discovered. Nice, unexciting player.
9. GRAIG NETTLES - I missed the boat on him for a long time; his election year and now this vote allow me to make some amends. Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78.
10. DARRELL EVANS - No, I don't fully buy the fielding stats, and his thread suggests several thoughts that back up that sense. Bob Elliott was a better hitter during each's years as a 3B, and after that Evans mostly just adds league-average 1B/DH time. I value a string of OPS+ 120s more than many voters, but I don't give much if any credit to a string of 110s as a DH/modern 1B.
11. KEN BOYER - Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys. Ultimately, another 3B who takes a backseat to Bob Elliott.
12. JIMMY WYNN - Wildly underrated by baseball fans, and just as wildly overrated here. I like Reggie Smith better, and surely Bob Johnson, Roush, and Keller were just as good or better. Still, the OPS+s are undeniable, and the fielding/position gives some boost. It's just not enough to avoid the basement on a tough ballot.

Thru 1983, Simmons was a career 125 OPS+ in 7244 AB. Torre was 129 OPS+ in 7874 AB for his whole career. So Simmons caught almost twice as many games as Torre,

1983 closes Simmons' 14-year career as a catcher. Call it twelve-and-two-half seasons. Expressed as a share of full seasons he played 11.12 (#14 all-time), Torre 5.48, which is more than double. Freehan 9.72 (#27).

2. RON SANTO...Only Baker among previous white 3Bs rivals him as a hitter

Um...

Final ballot from this career-value voter with a low replacement level:

1. Bobby Grich - great combo of offense and defense; woefully undervalued
2. Ron Santo - I wish his HOF bandwagon was for Grich instead
3. Graig Nettles - I luv his defense, among the all-time greatest
4. Darrell Evans - long career, decent defensive 3B, good DH/1B to finish career
5. Ted Simmons - very puzzled by lack of any HOF traction
6. Ken Boyer - similar to, but slightly inferior to, Santo
7. Dick Allen - I like him better for the HOM than for the HOF
8. Jimmy Wynn - Toy Cannon was most apt nickname, good center fielder too
9. Bill Freehan - amount of catcher "bonus" dictates where he ranks
10. Joe Torre - excellent hitter but poor defensively and on the bases
11. Minnie Minoso - all-around very good player, wish he had started earlier
12. Billy Pierce - a good pitcher, favorite of mine for 1962 Giants

Rob Wood, no NgL credit for Miñoso?

A whopping 13 or so ballots in so far...

I credit Minoso with the equivalent of 3 of his typical major league seasons for his combined Cuban, Negro League, and minor league play. I think this is fair. However, I think his career arc may have been higher had he started in organized ball earlier.

HOM not HOF – Group 2

Methodology in brief: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, edits for minor league, war, NeL credit, even some contemporary opinion. Oh, and Dan R’s salary estimator made me re-examine folks as well. So once that info is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit, weighting the various measures. My hope by including all this material is to get the most complete picture, a worthy player from all angles. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Bobby Grich (3rd in 1992). Larry Doyle with a better glove, good enough to play SS in a pinch. Good OBA skills gives nice bump to offensive value. Part of the Oriole defensive machine of the 1970s.

2. Ron Santo (2nd in 1980). Good hitting 3Bmen and very good fielding as well. Career didn’t have the highest # of seasons but was long enough when you consider was very durable in the season’s he was active.

3. Dick Allen (3rd in 1983). He’s not petitioning for sainthood and his hitting talent was elite during his time in the majors. He *might have* affected his teammates at times with his missed time/suspensions/distractions but the body of work is too high.

4. Darrell Evans (6th in 1995). Ticked down his numbers a bit since the 3B fielding just didn’t conform to what made sense to me. Still with a conservative approach I can’t place him lower than here. Terrific player, doesn’t get much better for hitting .248.

5. Joe Torre (4th in 1984). Part-time catcher, worked in a little 3B and 1B. Still a fully capable hitter so didn’t need to be benched when the tools of ignorance came off. Underrated in history – many current fans probably know him only as the Yankee skipper.

6. Ken Boyer (5th in 1991). Like a Brooks Robinson in quality, didn’t quite play as long. I would have thought he was better with the glove than Evans but metrics vary on this one.

7. Billy Pierce (2nd in 1987). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that. I buy into the leverage argument for him, seemed to come into tight relief spots the way an ace should. Close in value to Rube Waddell.

8. Bill Freehan (5th in 1985). 11 time All-Star, 5 time Gold Glove. I can’t go against observers to such an extent to drop him further on this list.

9. Graig Nettles (37th in 2006). Egads, I think I undervalued him some. Still when we look at the 3rd basemen even in this short list I don’t think he makes up in fielding what he lacked in hitting.

10. Minnie Minoso (17th in 1987). Some minor league/NeL credit but was never a huge supporter. His value was similar to Bob Johnson and Joe Medwick. Not as high amongst LF as others at their positions.

11. Ted Simmons (4th in 1994). You’d have to catch awful badly to offset the good he did with his bat. But then again he ran the bases with difficulty as well. I’ve cooled on this guy some.

12. Jimmy Wynn (22nd in 1996). A peak candidate and I don’t always back them as strongly as others. His CF time was diluted with corner OF work so he doesn’t get the full defensive spectrum bonus. Great nickname all the same.

I agree with John. Much more difficult ballot to order than Group 1. This is nowhere near as strong a group of candidates, half being marginal and being HOM/not-HOM is largely a matter of taste.

These two are very close in my system. Both rate in the upper half of my PHOM. I prefer Grich's prime to Santo's peak.

1) B. GRICH -- (#2 in 1992) Prime 1972-85. Best player candidate by WARP in 1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1979 and 1981; WARP adds 1980. Other star seasons include 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1978, 1982, 1983, 1985; also 1972 at SS.

2) R. SANTO -- (#1 in 1980) Prime 1961-72. Best-player candidate 1964, 1966, 1967. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1967, 1968; WARP adds 1964, 1965, 1966. Also a star in 1963, 1969. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1961, 1970, 1972.

I consider these three to be solid HOMers that easily should be in the HOF by their past standards.
The relative order of Simmons vs Allen depends strongly on my catcher bonus of the moment.

3) T. SIMMONS -- (#2 in 1994) Prime 1971-83. Never #1 catcher, but five consensus #2 seasons. Star seasons include 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1980. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1971, 1976, 1979, 1982, and 1983.

4) D. ALLEN -- (#5 in 1983) Prime 1964-1974. Best player candidate, 1964, 1972. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1972; WS adds 1964, 1965, 1966 at 3B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1971 at 3B, 1968 in LF, 1974 at 1B. HM in 1969 at 1B.

5) J. TORRE -- (#3 in 1984) Prime 1963-1973. Best player candidate 1971. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1964, 1965, 1966; WS adds 1971 at 3B. Other star seasons include 1970, plus 1969 at 1B. HM in 1963, 1967, plus 1973 at 1B.

Now we get down to the marginal candidates whose ranking is very dependent on what is emphasized by the weights of a particular ranking system.

6) K. BOYER -- (#3 in 1991) Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.
Boyer has a strong consecutive prime in the stronger league during what I consider to be a contraction era. His "sabrmetric" stats are deflated relative to Evans and Nettles due to both those factors, and I adjust for that.

7) D. EVANS -- (#4 in 1995) Prime 1972-83. Best player candidate by WARP in 1973. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1973. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, plus 1983 and 1987 at 1B. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1972, 1982, and 1985. See above on Boyer.

8) J. WYNN -- (#3 in 1996) Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975. I had him over Evans in 1995. I've changed my mind about that.

9) B. PIERCE -- (#11 in 1987) Prime 1950-58. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1955; WS adds 1952, 1953, 1958. Other star seasons include 1951. HM in 1950, 1956, 1957. Pierce and Minoso were on the wrong side of the league strength factor, but have the contraction in their favor.

10) M. MINOSO -- (#16 in 1987) Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

11) B. FREEHAN -- (#11 in 1985) Prime 1964-73. Best player candidate 1968. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1967, 1968; WS adds 1971. Other star seasons include 1964, plus 1973 at 1B. HM in 1972. My catcher bonus has declined due to the influx of good catchers over the last few decades, so too my enthusiasm for Freehan.

Not in my PHOM
12) G. NETTLES -- Never got above the thirties on my ballot. I never drew up a ballot comment for him either, and my All-Star lists are not with me at the moment. (My old ballots are though.)

Just moved last weekend and I was afraid I was going to miss this election. Glad I didn't.

1. Ted Simmons - Very close between the first 4 candidates. Simmons length of career and peak value from mostly the catchers spot puts him #1.
2. Ron Santo - The HOF is short thirdbasemen, and here is a great one.
3. Dick Allen - Too much peak to ignore.
4. Bobby Grich - In the upper half of HOM secondbasemen,
5. Bill Freehan - His defense lifts him over Torre's offense.
6. Joe Torre - Thanks Joe, for all your years as Yankees manager.
7. Minnie Minoso - Long career, OK peak, but I'm more of a peak voter.
8. Darrell Evans - Very close to Minoso. More time at 3rd might have moved him up another spot.
9. Jimmy Wynn - Very good player
-----------------PHOM Line-------------------------
10. Graig Nettles - Poor man's Brooks Robinson. And Brooks isn't in my PHOM either(though he's close).
11. Billy Pierce - Agree with sunny that Newcombe was the one we wanted from the 1950's
12. Ken Boyer - Among 3rdbasemen not in my PHOM, Boyer is behind Brooks, McGraw, Nettles, Elliott, and Traynor. And Williamson, Leach and Rosen are in my PHOM.

1. Ron Santo - Top 5 3B.
2. Ted Simmons - Very good hitting catcher with a long career. From '75-'80 in the top 10 in OPS+ 5 times.
3. Bobby Grich - A good defensive second baseman with a 125 OPS+.
4. Dick Allen - Fantastic hitter. Career OPS+ of 156, 21st all time. Led league in OPS+ 3 times.
5. Joe Torre - Great hitter as a catcher and third baseman.
6. Darrell Evans - Long career, peak not that high.
7. Ken Boyer - Great defender, good hitter as a third baseman.
8. Billy Pierce - 3000+ IP, 119 ERA+, good peak.
9. Bill Freehan - Good defender. Three times in top 10 in OPS+.
10. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.
11. Graig Nettles - Brooks Robinson lite.
12. Minnie Minoso - Good hitter. Finishing last among these guys isn't so bad, they all are in my PHOM.

Two scalandalous misses; two understandable but still clear errors; then a bunch of guys who are deserving of induction (or in one-instance damn close) but not banging down the door:

(1) Grich--No real excuse for how the HoF has treated him--I have him in the same general vicinity as Carew, Sandberg, and Frisch, somewhere between 8th and 11th All-Time at 2B.

(2) Santo--A shorter run at the highest level than some of his most vocal backers suggest, but still somewhere around the 10th best 3B and the 125th best player of All-Time.

(3) Allen--Probably the best peak seasons on the ballot and compares well in prime and career value; held back primarily by the competition at 1B (he's somewhere around #13 All-Time) and secondarily by intangibles that were genuinely a challenge for management.

(4) Simmons--Maybe Closer to #12 than to #1. He was one of the top 10 hitters ever to play catcher, wasn't terrible defensively, and had a long productive career. Makes the HoM with 50 or 60 spots to spare.

(5) Minoso--The remaining guys are very tightly bunched. As we discussed, those who project him as a top 100 player tend to rely on an erroneous birthdate. Using the right birthdate, he got most of the major league seasons he should have had. Still, the career he did have was HoM (though barely) on its own merits and he does deserve some extra credit both for marginal pre-integration seasons and b/c/ of the effect that exclsuion/racism had on his career development.

(6) Evans--This ranking premised on letting only a small amount of air out of his defensive numbers.

(7) Torre--Drops a few spots from the prelim when I consider how little catcher he actually played. Still, a terrific prime.

(8) Pierce--Relief innings highly leveraged and help make up for low IP totals. I like lots of pitchers of his profile (Bridges, Stieb, Shocker, etc.) plus I give him (and Stieb) a bit of extra credit for how highly they rank among their cohort. Makes my PHoM with about eight or ten pitchers to spare.

(9) Wynn--Had seven truly outstanding seasons (albeit somewhat scattered) but contributed little else. The objective part of my system has him about 145 All-Time, but vastly overrates him b/c/ its prime calculation takes into account exactly 7 seasons. I have Dale Murphy (who had six seasons of a similar level and even less outside those seasons) as one of the last PHoMers, so Wynn has a little margin of error.

(10) Boyer--His record wouldn't put him in the HoM if he had debuted 20 years later. The key question is whether he played at a time where conditions had not yet developed to favor 3B or whether the relative lack of star 3B at his time was just the normal ebb and flow. I'm not sure whether we got it right.

(11) Freehan--The catcher position is so weak that a substantial career as an ok hit, good field guy plus a few big seasons with the bat gets you to about #16 All-Time. Based on his position ranking, could be a few spots higher.

(12) Nettles--Enough of his WS/WARP are from hanging around seasons to knock his career value down to the point where he needs a strong prime/peak, and the fact that his bat didn't fully develop until after his glove stopped being all-worldly limit his peak value. Not a bad pick but not quite PHoM.

Sadly, missed the last vote, but at least I'll get one in this time.

1. Dick Allen: I don't often favor shorter careers and bat-first positions, but Allen's bat was SO good, I have to put it at the top of the heap this vote.
2. Bobby Grich: Very close. Excellent all-around player.
3. Ron Santo: Another very deserving of a place in Cooperstown, but at least he has it in the HOM. Simplistically, he seems similar to Grich, but at 3B instead of 2nd.
4. Ted Simmons: This ballot obviously depends a lot on how one values catchers. My favorite position, though my bonus seems to be about average, and Simmons stands out in this group.
5. Darrell Evans: Lots of career value at a position that doesn't get a lot of credit from HOF.
6. Joe Torre: Torre grades out very well in my stystem, but takes a little hit for not playing enough catcher.
7. Billie Pierce: The first marginal-but-in candidate, in my opinion. I like the fact that he didn't have any "bad" seasons, providing consistent (if only occasionally high) value.
8. Bill Freehan: Just gets into my PHOM thanks to a generous catcher's bonus.
9. Graig Nettles: Final PHOM choice among this group. The glove is worth a lot.
10. Jimmy Wynn: Just below my in-out line, though I can see why others would like him. OBP really impresses.
11. Minnie Minoso: Not very impressed with his pre-MLB record, and don't see quite enough there without that credit. Feeel a little bad placing him this low, as his era wasn't generous to NeL convertees.
12. Ken Boyer: Only candidate this time that I'm not really fond of. Would have needed a bit longer career given his typical level of production.

My system assigns points to each season of a player’s career and sums them to get an overall career rating. The point scale is designed to be peak/prime oriented—it gives little credit for average performance and emphasizes all-star type seasons. The cutoff for the HoM’s top quartile is about 240 points; the second quartile runs from 175 to 240; the third quartile from about 150 to 175; and the bottom quartile from about 135 to 150. In many of the comments I list the player’s statistics for his top seasons (seasons worth 5 or more points in my system).

1. Bobby Grich (206) – Over 11 seasons (1972-76, 78-83) he averaged 147 games (adjusting to 162-game schedule) with an OPS+ of 130 and four Gold Glove awards at second base. Top half of the HoM—I rank him ahead of Frisch and Carew.

2. Ron Santo (187) – Over 9 seasons (1961, 63-69, 72) he averaged 158 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 141 and five Gold Glove awards at third. Top half of the HoM.

3. Bill Freehan (169) – Over 9 seasons (1964, 66-72, 74) he averaged 138 games (162-adj; 123 games at catcher) with an OPS+ of 122; won five Gold Glove award at catcher.

4. Ted Simmons (169) – Over 12 seasons (1971-80, 82-83) he averaged 148 games (162-adj; 131 games at catcher) with an OPS+ of 129. As far as I know, his name never came up in Gold Glove discussions. My rankings have Freehan’s advantage on defense equal to Simmons’ advantages in career length and hitting.

5. Orestes Miñoso (157) – Over 10 seasons (1951-60) he averaged 157 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 136 and three Gold Glove awards in the outfield, noting that Gold Gloves were first awarded in 1957. He’s the kind of player (long prime, but not a huge peak or extremely long career; broad-based talents of offense and defense) that does better in my system than with most of the HoM electorate. About 20 points come from Negro League/minor league credit for 1947-50.

6. Joe Torre (155) – Over 6 seasons when he mostly played catcher (1963-67, 70) he averaged 148 games (162-adj; 103 games at catcher) with an OPS+ of 138 and one Gold Glove award. Over 2 seasons at first base and third base (1969, 71) he averaged 160 games with an OPS+ of 160.

7. Dick Allen (151) – As I discussed long ago on his thread, my rating includes subjective adjustments for negative effects of his behavior on his teams. I tried to be fair—just considering events where I thought there were real effects on his teammates or their play, with no separate penalties just for being a jerk. These adjustments lowered his rating, but not enough to keep him off my ballot or out of my PHoM.

8. Darrell Evans (149) – Over 9 seasons when he mostly played third base (1972-75, 78-82) he averaged 152 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 122. In 3 seasons when he mostly played first base (1983, 85, 87) he averaged 148 games with an OPS+ of 140. The classic undervalued player.

9. Jimmy Wynn (145) – Over 8 seasons (1965, 67-70, 72, 74-75) he averaged 151 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 148, played center field in 7 of the 8 seasons, and averaged 20 stolen bases with a 72% success rate.

10. Ken Boyer (139) – Over 8 seasons (1956, 58-64) he averaged 159 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 128 and 5 Gold Glove awards at third base.

11. Graig Nettles (137) – Over 10 seasons (1970-78, 81) he averaged 157 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 115 and 2 Gold Glove awards at third base. On the 1994 ballot thread I wrote, “He comes close to defining the borderline between the players who have a shot at making my PHoM and those who don’t.” Fourteen elections later, Nettles was the final player to make it into my PHoM.

- - - - - - - - PHoM line - - - - - - -

12. Billy Pierce – I just never got his HoM case. He had maybe six or seven seasons when I’d have wanted him as my team’s # 1 pitcher, which would be alright if some of those seasons were CYA-quality Koufax- or Saberhagen-like seasons, but they weren’t. HoVG.

HoM-not-HoF Veterans’ Committee Jurisdiction Ballot

The lower third of this ballot was very difficult. It’s a group of closely bunched, borderline HoMers, all of whom have cases for subjective adjustments. Have I gotten the catcher bonuses right for Torre and Freehan? Should Boyer get war credit? Should Minoso get NeL credit? Should Wynn get some adjustment for a non-baseball-related injury in the middle of his prime? In the end, I didn’t feel confident enough about any of those adjustments, so I just left them in the order proposed by my system, except that I moved Freehan over Boyer.

1) Bobby Grich – 344. About even with Tim Raines in overall value, but even more woefully underrated.
2) Ron Santo – 295. At least there’s a vigorous campaign on his behalf. Very deserving. A little bit below Lou Whitaker in my rankings, though peak voters may reasonably prefer Santo.

3) Dick Allen – 277. Deadly hitter, but of questionable value otherwise.
4) Ted Simmons – 270. Great hitting catcher, with ok defense but terrible baserunning. My placement of him now is quite a bit lower than it was before I brought in Dan R’s numbers, which include baserunning. I’ve moved him up over Evans because, really, catchers of Simmons’ value are harder to find that 3B/1B of Evans’.
5) Darrell Evans – 275. Long, valuable career, with a few great seasons early, followed by a deep trough.
6) Graig Nettles – 254. Best fielding third baseman of his generation, and a good bat. My system respects a long career, as long as the player was an asset to his teams, and Nettles, like Evans, was good for a very long time.

7) Billy Pierce – 244. In the Saberhagen/Stieb category of HoM pitchers: overlooked, deserving, but in the lower tier of the HoM.

8) Minnie Minoso – 241. Minoso and Wynn are right above the borderline. Their careers weren’t short, but they weren’t especially long. Their peaks were high, but not extremely high. This ranking of Minoso does not give credit except for his major-league play.
9) Jimmy Wynn – 240. Interesting to learn that his off year in the middle of his prime was due to a domestic violence injury.
10) Joe Torre – 240. See Simmons, but with even better bat and worse defense. Drops significantly with addition of Dan R’s WAR to my rankings.
11) Bill Freehan – 225. Adjusting for baserunning in Dan R’s WAR docks Freehan as it does Simmons and Torre. As with Boyer below, the advice to the Coop on Freehan should be: Simmons and Torre first!
12) Ken Boyer – 232. His peak would have been HoM-worthy if it had lasted a couple of more years. As it is, he is slightly below my in-out line. The Coop could do a whole lot worse than induct him, as he wouldn’t lower their standards, but it would be ridiculous to induct him before Santo or Nettles, both of whom were superior players at the same underrepresented position. With war credit, he might be over the in-out line.

I use a roughly 50/50 mix of DanR WARP and Win Shares. I consider peak, prime, career, and "per season." Also, I consider rank within a position and a cohort group. Consider All-Star and Gold Gloves by DWARP and WS. I give a catcher bonus, too.

1 and 2 are easy. 3 and 4 are in their own tier. 5 through 9 are almost interchangeable. 10 is scraping the bottom of the barrel and 11 and 12 are not PHOM.

1. Grich: 3rd by WS and 1st by DWARP, 5 AS by WS and 7 AS by WARP, 4 GG by WS and 5 (maybe 6, it's late) by WARP.
2. Santo: 2nd and 2nd, AS: 2 and 5, GG: 7 and 5.5
These two are top 12 at their position all-time. That's including 19th century players.

3. Allen: 1st and 3rd, AS: 5 and 2.5, GG: 1 and 0.
I think he negatively impacted his clubs to a degree by some of his actions which cancels out some of his hitting positives.

4. Simmons: 4th and 5th tied, AS: 3 and 1, GG: 0.
Great hitter. An amazing run in the 70s obscured by Bench and Carter. Boy did he fall off a cliff.

5. Evans: 8th tied and 5th tied, AS: 1 and 1, GG: 3 and 5
Much better fielder than I realized. 3rd base was just loaded during the 70s.

6. Freehan: 5th tied and 4th, AS: 5 and 4, GG: 5 and 2.5
Could have been moved down due to league strength issues. 1967 and 1968 were just amazing years.

7. Nettles: 8th tied and 9th tied, AS: 3 and 6, GG: 7 and 6.5
3rd base in the 70s. Wow. Great fielder, just amazing numbers.

8. Wynn: 5th tied and 7th, AS: 4 and 4, GG: 1 and 1
Bottom quarter of inducted centerfielders. Is there a position with a bigger disparity between top tier players (20th Century only): Cobb, Speaker, Mays, Mantle, Charleston, then gap to Snider and Griffey, then big gap.

9. Minoso: 7th and 8th, AS: 7 and 5, GG: 2 and 2
Bottom quarter among leftfielders.

10. Torre: 10th and 11th, AS: 3 and 5, GG: 0 and 1 (first base. Probably having to do with catcher defensive credit lumped in).
He hit great for a catcher, but didn't play that much catcher. Lowest ranked inducted catcher.

11. Pierce: He didn't pitch enough. His peak, prime, and career are bottom of the HOM pitchers. 7th best pitcher of the 50s and the decade didn't have that many good ones.

12. Boyer: 11th and 9th tied, AS: 1 and 3, GG: 7 and 3.
The lowest ranked inducted 3rd baseman in my system. Short career, low peak and prime.

I have figured DanR WARP Gold Gloves back to 1950. If anyone wants this info or has a quick question, let me know.

The email address in my contact info isn't working well so just post here.

Chris,

I was surprised to see this statement:

This ranking of Minoso does not give credit except for his major-league play.

It's true that the earliest MLEs seemed not to justify Negro league or minor league credit, but later versions that brought in more complete data appear to justify credit starting in 1947. For the latest MLEs, see Minnie Minoso thread # 123. Do you really think there's a good case for not giving credit for his age 21 to 24 seasons?

Brent,

I tend to find Dr. Chaleeko's estimates a little bit too high. If I accepted his latest Minoso estimates at face value, I would start giving credit for his age 22 season in 1948. However, my reading of the evidence is that his 1950 season was the breakout season that got him his call-up in 1951. Now, as the White Sox had a terrible outfield at this time, while Cleveland had a pretty good one that already contained one black player, his break in 1951 was undoubtedly influenced by the trade from the Cleveland to the Chicago organization. Had he been in Chicago's system, he might well have been an improvement over their existing options as early as 1948, but I don't think that was true for Cleveland: at his documented level of play, he was not an obvious improvement over their current starters, although surely his upside was higher than that of their mid-career veterans. But it wasn't just Minoso that Cleveland was holding back in favor of an established veteran starter: Al Rosen suffered the same fate with Cleveland. To what extent is Minoso being held back by racism, and to what extent is he held back by the bad luck of being the farm system of a strong organization that seemed to favor veteran talent? I don't find it easy to separate out the influence of those two factors. As I haven't generally given players credit for being held back like Rosen or Rizzuto, I think it appropriate to be conservative in Minoso's case also.

Use WS, 2/3 peak, 1/3 career

1. Allen – I have him in the top 25% of the HoM, just ahead of Paul Waner and Duke Snider.
2. Santo – Right around the median of the HoM, with Carew, Goslin and Frisch
3. Grich – If we reduced the size of our hall to 150, Grich should still be on the inside.

The rest are in the lower echelon of the HoM and I can’t get too excited about their exclusion from Cooperstown. Only Nettles is not PHoM, Boyer may be a PHoM mistake.

4. Pierce – bottom 25%
5. Minoso – bottom 25%
6. Wynn – bottom 25%
7. Torre – bottom 20%
8. Evans – bottom 20%
9. Simmons – bottom 10%
10. Freehan – bottom 10%
11. Boyer – bottom 5%
12. Nettles – bottom 5%

1943-1987 HoM/non-HoF ballot. Primary analysis tool: nonlinear combination of Win Shares (ERA+) and rate during optimal prime. Secondary effects: league strengths, population/number of ML teams based "timelining", effective playing time bonus, e.g. for catchers and modern pitchers, positional balancing.

Rank, player, numerical rating, all-time positional rank among MLers, most similar player(s) in value: Most similar players in value calculated with a similarity-score method comparing career length, performance rates, peak-ness versus career-ness, partition of value into seasons, and closeness of position on the defensive spectrum. Similarity score does not take into account, for example, balance of value between offense and defense, so players may be listed as similar who are not subjectively similar.

1. Dick Allen +5.35 3B (5) (McGwire).
2. Bobby Grich +5.34 2B (7) Gehringer.
3. Ted Simmons +5.28 C (12) Torre.
4. Joe Torre +5.28 C (14) T. Simmons, Freehan
5. Bill Freehan +5.26 C (17) (Torre).
6. Minnie Minoso +5.23 LF (15) (Dar. Evans).
7. Darrell Evans +5.23 3B (8) (B. Robinson).
8. Billy Pierce +5.22 P (42) (Cone, Bunning, L. Jackson)
9. Ron Santo +5.22 3B (10) Traynor, Hack, Ventura, Bi. Herman
10. Jimmy Wynn +5.21 CF (16) Fr. Howard, Singleton, Bo. Bonds
11. Ken Boyer +5.17 3B (17) B. Elliott, Traynor
12. Graig Nettles +5.16 3B (20) Bu. Bell, McPhee, Schoendienst, Ton. Phillips

My rating of Santo differs greatly from the consensus. I do rate him as deserving of the HoF, just closer to borderline than to inner circle. I expect criticism, so I will explain further.

IMO:

(1) Santo's peak is overrated, because there were a significant number of great 3B playing at the same time as him. My ratings are top-down as well as bottom up, so this lowers his relative standing among peers. These peers include Sal Bando, Ken Boyer, Eddie Matthews, and Brooks Robinson among 3B, and players that had great seasons at 3B while perhaps not thought of as 3B: Harmon Killebrew, Dick Allen, Tony Perez, etc.

As an aside, 3B was clearly a bat position at the time, given the large number of good-hitting players that switched back and/or forth to other bat positions: Allen, Killebrew, Perez, Pete Ward, Mike Shannon, Jim Ray Hart.

(2) Santo's career may be somewhat overrated in comprehensive rating systems because of expansion (applies to various degrees to all players whose careers had tail ends in the early 70s).

(3) Santo had the kind of uneven career that is optimally suited to 5-best-years plus career type rating systems, making him come out looking better than equally great players with different career shapes.

(4) Finally, there is the question of whether there should be more 3B in the HoF. If one thinks that the relative lack of 3B is a problem that needs fixing, then Santo looks better. If, on the other hand, one thinks that the lack of 3B reflecs a lack of truly HoF-worthy 3B, as I do, then Santo looks closer to a borderline candidate.

Finally, for entertainment purposes only, a chart: OPS+ for seasons in which player played a plurality of games at 3B during the years of Santo's careers, 1500 PA or more total in "3B seasons":

1. Harmon Killebrew 166
2. Dick Allen 162
3. Eddie Matthews 136
4. Tony Perez 133
5. Jim Ray Hart 133
6. Richie Hebner 132
7. Sal Bando 131
8. Darrell Evans 129
9. Ron Santo 128

My rating of Santo differs greatly from the consensus.

Oh, just a wee bit, Eric. :-)

BTW, I don't understand Santo over Evans at all. Ron hit as well as him, fielded his position at least as well and played third base his entire career.

...and Santo was greater than Brooks, too.

EricC--

1. How do you acount for fielding in your analysis? Obviously Santo's superlative glove is a major part of his case.

2. The guys you list as peers overlap with parts of Santo's career, but not the meat of it. Matthews and Boyer were close to done by the time Santo really got going, while Bando and Pérez hadn't really gotten started. That's like calling Roger Clemens a contemporary of Tommy John. The guys who were actually playing 3B during Santo's peak years were Allen, Brooks, and a bit of Killebrew--and Santo blows them all away. Between 1963 and 1968, I have the top 12 3B seasons as:

1. Santo '64
2. Santo '67
3. Santo '66
4. Allen '64
5. Brooks '64
6. Santo '65
7. Allen '66
8. Mathews '63
9. Allen '65
10. Brooks '67
11. Killebrew '66
12. Santo '63
13. Santo '68

3. Santo's case does not depend on years after the 1969 expansion by any stretch. He most certainly did benefit from the '61-'62 expansion, and I definitely ding his '63-'65 for that, but they were so outstanding that it doesn't matter.

4. I don't use any arbitrary X-year or X-year consecutive cutoff for peak (although many voters do, and Santo's 6-year run of dominance certainly meets many definitions of Merit). The point is that the guy just had a Godlike peak/short prime. That would be true no matter how many seasons you use or whether you care about consecutivity.

1. Bobby Grich - Superlative offense and defense at second base. One of the most criminally underrated (moreso than even Blyleven) players by mainstream baseball fans.
2. Ron Santo - As Dan R says above - he was also very good with both the glove and bat. Had a fantastic peak.
3. Ted Simmons - Easily reaches the standard for a Hall of Fame catcher.
4. Dick Allen - Hit a ton. Not the greatest defensively and a bit of a headcase, but had so much value with his bat.
5. Bill Freehan - Very strong bat for a catcher, but tremendoes defense, as well. Also easily reaches the HOF standard.
6. Minnie Minoso - With NgL credit, just gets past Nettles.
7. Graig Nettles - Fantastic gloveman at third base, provided a strong overall offensive profile during his peak.
8. Joe Torre - Hit the hell out of the ball, defensively he was a concern.
9. Darrell Evans - A poor man's Nettles.
10. Ken Boyer - A poor man's Evans.
11. Jimmy Wynn - Wasn't the hugest fan of Wynn, but he did have a good peak, and played very good defense.
12. Billy Pierce -Supported him much more when he was elected. Upon further review, he moves below Wynn, but still a fantastic player.

1. 2b Bobby Grich (2)—The most underrated ballplayer over these past two ballots, his excellent defense at 2b combined with his excellent secondary skills made for an excellent peak, particularly for a middle infielder in the ‘70s (but really at any position).
2. 3b Ron Santo (1)—I sincerely hope he is elected to the Hall of Fame soon, with that peak he very much deserves it.
3. 1b Dick Allen (3)—Like McGwire, Allen’s HoF chances don’t suffer from underrated play, but from other factors that are hard to quantify. I do think that his performance is good enough despite his reputation, but it does make him a borderline candidate.
4. c Ted Simmons (4)—An underrated player who, like Piazza, will always live with the moniker of “poor defensive catcher,” something that in both players’ cases is overstated, IMO.
5. 3b Darrell Evans (10)—Did not make my ballot when elected, looking back on it I believe I underrated him, putting too much emphasis on peak, not enough on prime/career.
6. c Bill Freehan (6)—His excellent peak and defense are enough to boost him past Torre’s greater career.
7. c Joe Torre (5)—If Torre had spent most of his career behind the plate he’d be equal to Simmons, IMO. But if he spent his entire career behind the plate he very may have been forced to retire earlier, so who knows?
8. sp Billy Pierce (9)—A step below Stieb & Saberhagen, IMO, with a solid career and decent peak.
9. 3b Ken Boyer (7)—There has been some talk of Boyer’s worthiness the past several “years.” Boyer was elected for two reasons: the lack of elected 3b and BP’s WARP. Now, there were several HoF 3b yet to be elected (although it’s still the least represented position) and BP’s WARP overstates his value, but he did have a nice peak/prime for his position.
10. cf Jimmy Wynn (8)—He was the sort of ballplayer I would’ve loved if I’d been a fan during the ‘60s & ‘70s: an underrated player, both patient & athletic. His peak is very nice although a bit below excellent, which isn’t enough to compensate for his short career.
11. 3b Graig Nettles (11)—A quality player for a long period of time, but even his sensational defense isn’t enough to boost his peak into the territory that shouts Hall of Famer.
12. lf Minnie Minoso (12)—Not a bad peak, but it isn’t what I’m looking for in an outfielder with only a decent career even with a couple of non-MLB seasons tacked on.

This group has been a rough one to place in order, since most of these guys were either low on my ballot or not on it at all. As they say, here goes nothing:

1) Ron Santo - Definite top 7 at his position, where in that 7 is debatable.

2) Bobby Grich - Would have been ahead of Santo if not for the back injury that diminished his offense.

3) Ted Simmons - Great offense as a catcher, defense not a huge negative.

4) Dick Allen - Offensive monster but missed time does hinder him.

5) Billy Pierce - Gets some leverage value for relief work.

6) Bill Freehan - Underrated catcher offensively because of the era he played in.

7) Ken Boyer - A lesser level than Santo but still put together an offensive and defensive package that I consider worthy enough to edge ahead of the other remaining third basemen.

8) Minnie Minoso - One season of NL credit and a consistent level, though not superlative.

9) Graig Nettles - He and Evans are the flip sides of the same coin. Superlative defense and a career staying at the same position place him ahead.

10) Joe Torre - Not really crazy about Torre. Still, one-ups Evans for doing it as a catcher for some of his career.

11) Darrell Evans - He hit but I think his defense at third is overrated and he really was not a superlative offensive player at first and DH. Still, a nice career package.

12) Jimmy Wynn - Last because he is the only one left.

Tiboreau, if I'm not mistaken, Piazza's SB/CS numbers really were putrid, while Simmons's weren't.

Sean Smith has Piazza at -51 for his career (with no 1999 data), Simmons at -24.

I agree that this group of 12 isn't as strong as the last one, at least in the top half. But I still see the top 5 as absolutely worthy of induction. And I do see the players in 4 tiers again. (This time I'm giving my PHoM years, a + is how many years I was ahead of the HoM, a - is how far behind I was, and an = means we agreed)

I: Elect-me Spots (or very close)

1. Ron Santo (PHoM 1980, =) The top of the ballot really came down to Santo and Grich for me, and it's hard to go wrong either way. Santo had a higher peak, Grich a longer prime. They were both excellent fielders. Ultimately, Santo lasting a little longer was the deciding factor. (And I don't attribute that to the 1969 expansion, as he played for a half-decade beyond that.)
2. Bobby Grich (PHoM 1994, -2) The delay was just a function of the Pete Rose boycott. A great, complete player, who stood way ahead of the backlog. Those who could hit like him couldn't field like him, and vice versa. He's even underrated among underrated players, I think Darrell Evans gets more attention for it than he does.
3. Joe Torre (PHoM 1983, +1) If he was a 3B or C his whole career, he'd easily qualify. The time spent at 1B does diminish him a bit, but he was still an excellent hitter. His fielding at C wasn't great, but Tango's analysis in the 2008 THT has him as 2.8 LWTS better than his counterparts.
4. Ted Simmons (PHoM 1994, =) Doesn't quite have Torre's peak, but was very good for a long time, which is rare for a catcher, and he hit quite a bit better than the average catcher. Not the best guy in the Cardinals clubhouse, but did help win a pennant in Milwaukee. Tango's analysis has him at 0.7 LWTS above his counterparts, so nothing special. He was below average in CS, but nowhere near Piazza levels.
5. Dick Allen (PHoM 1984, -1) Behind Torre when they were both on the ballot, and I don't see a reason to change that now. An amazing hitter for a solid decade, but not much of a fielder, and I do think he deserves some penalty for his problems in the clubhouse. But he's still worthy of induction.

II: Behind some PHoMers, at least to start
(Wynn and Minoso were both at the top of the ballot by the time they made the HoM)

6. Jimmy Wynn (PHoM 1985, +11) Was actually behind Minoso and Freehan when they were on the ballots together, but I've grown to appreciate him more. Had some outstanding offensive seasons hidden by the Astrodome, and provided some defensive value in CF although he was not great with the glove.
7. Minnie Minoso (PHoM 1971, +16) Has a lot of little things going for him - gets some credit for having to deal with the color line, played some 3B, was an excellent base stealer, and had his best years in the early 50s AL, which was closer to the NL in quality than it would be later.
8. Bill Freehan (PHoM 1985, =) Not as good a hitter as the other two catchers, but a better fielder. (4.9 LWTS in Tango's analysis) Still clearly qualified if you rate catchers fairly. Trivia: Was the starting All-Star Catcher for 7 straight years. Wonder how many non-HoMers can say that at any position?

III: Behind most PHoMers, but still qualified

9. Billy Pierce (PHoM 1986, +1) His year-by-year WS weren't great, but when you looked at his career as a whole, it wasn't too far off from Juan Marichal. Also had his best years in the early 50s when there was less of a gap between the leagues then there would become.
10. Ken Boyer (PHoM 1987, +4) I don't quite get the dislike he recieves from some people. He had a very strong peak, he accumulated a fair amount of career value, and he was playing in the stronger league. He also deserves at least one year of military service credit. I don't get people putting Bob Elliott ahead of him - there numbers are comparable, and Elliott gets a wartime competition penalty.
11. Darrell Evans (PHoM 1995, =) Yes, he was underrated. But there are also a lot of questions about his defensive value, and for someone who spent a lot of time at 1B, his hitting numbers aren't that special. I do think his induction was deserved, but he's close to the line.

IV: Not in my PHom

12. Graig Nettles (-2 and counting) I don't agree with his induction at all. Yes, he was an outstanding fielder, but he wasn't that special of a hitter. I'd put Ron Cey in ahead of Nettles - he was a better hitter, and had more of a peak. On the last ballot, I also had Bus Clarkson, Tommy Leach and Bob Elliott ahead of him among 3B, plus Tony Perez.

I used DanR's system for the position players, but I zero out sub-zero seasons, and convert the raw WARP2 to my version of Pennants Added and add a slight BS dump where I feel it's appropriate. I've listed the score, plus the player above and below (not counting catchers unless the player was one), to give an idea of where he's at.

I used my own system for the pitchers, and slotted them in where I felt appropriate, considering the systems are not calibrated the same.

1. Bobby Grich (1.1595, Joe Cronin, Bill Dahlen) - one of the Hall of Fame's most glaring oversights. An outstanding player from the time he stepped into the league.

2. Darrell Evans (1.0028, Mark McGwire, Ryne Sandberg) - Bill James once wrote an article about how he was one of the most overrated players of all time, basically has all of the factors that would make you underrated, and none of the ones that would make you overrated.

3. Ted Simmons (.6786, Mickey Cochrane, Bill Freehan) - The gaps are pretty big between those two, he's clearly better than Freehan, clearly not as good as Cochrane. Bench overshadowed him in the 1970s, but Simmons was a very valuable player. I give catchers a 50% bonus in career Pennants Added, so this is where Simmons lands.

4. Ron Santo (.9897, Ryne Sandberg, Willie Keeler - I cannot fathom how he isn't in the Hall of Fame. He would have won 3 'Rosenheck Rating MVPs' by my count (1964, 1966, 1967).

5. Dick Allen (.9499, Brooks Robinson, Jimmy Sheckard) - I wasn't there for his 'antics', but it sure seems like a lot of team he went to improved, and teams he left declined . . .

6. Graig Nettles (.9311, Stan Hack, Joe Kelley) - Like Evans, very underrated. Actually the AL MVP for 1976 (tied with George Brett) in Dan's system.

7. Billy Pierce (.9216 in my pitcher system, not Dan's; Urban Shocker, Dave Stieb) - The only pitcher in this group. One of the best in the AL during the 1950s.

8. Joe Torre (.6961, Willie Randolph, Reggie Smith) - Torre wasn't a full-time catcher, but he did earn more than half of his career value at the position. Just listing him among catchers, I'd have him below Simmons and ahead of Freehan. His defense wasn't great, but he was a great hitter for a catcher. And most of a catcher's defensive value is from being behind the plate.

9. Bill Freehan (.5977, Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson) - Freehan is a lot closer to Munson than Simmons. He was clearly better than Hall of Famers like Roger Bresnahan and Ernie Lombardi, not to mention the clear mistakes like Rick Ferrell and Ray Schalk. I see Freehan as the borderline of catchers.

10. Minnie Minoso (.7933, Tony Fernandez, Chuck Klein) - He would be a close 12th only based on major league play. However, just one season of extra credit would move him here, so I'm comfortable giving him that. He was the best player in the AL in 1954, and hit the ground running in 1951, so I think giving him one season of credit is reasonable.

11. Jimmy Wynn (.8448, Joe Medwick, Toby Harrah) - The Astrodome and Dodger Stadium killed his stats, but he was a great player at his peak, with some very big years (1968-69, 1972, 1974).

12. Ken Boyer (.8090, Bernie Williams, Jim Fregosi) - I think he's a borderline candidate at best. I did not support his Hall of Merit election, I think he's just a bit below the standard. He's similar to the two players listed above - very good, recognizable players, but just a tad short.

John,
I posted a sample ballot a few minutes ago. That is not in the spirit of sample ballots, so late, and I won't gripe if approved only for next week.

Here is the whole damn thing. I was planning to post something much shorter here but it is later than I thought it would be. :-(

==
The first line of each entry (partly bold) provides data on "full seasons equivalent" games played by fielding position. I have explained it elsewhere. Briefly, 81 catcher games in a 162-game team-season counts 0.50 full seasons at catcher. Here everyone's two leading positions are listed, even if he played 4 full seasons at his third position, but the "sum" covers all eight positions.
(The eight positions are the usual nine plus designated hitter (or none) minus two outfield distinctions. Pure pinch-hit and pinch-run games count zero. To be improved.)

1. Grich - 2b 11.23 seasons (#24), ss 1.01 ==> sum 12.73
I thought Dave Johnson was a pretty good player so I wasn't thrilled about utility infielder Bobby Grich taking over. And then Johnson hit 43 home runs for the Braves. That was 25 years ago and I changed my mind about 23 years ago. (At about that time I went to college and made a friend from the city of Baltimore itself. He had a been a big Jerry Adair fan and felt the same way about Johnson with respect to Adair.) When Grich signed with the Angels I knew enough to decry the pernicious effect of Gene Autry's pockets on the national game --that was my training for George Steinbrenner-- but I had no idea how good Grich was because walks were a big part of his game and who knew about walks?

Grich has been number two to eight on my personal list of worthy players who are not in the Hall of Fame (number two on a very bad day this Winter). He is usually about four and number one with 20th century debut.
October did not treat Grich kindly: tough defeats in '73, 74, 82, 86, and a not so tough defeat in '79. And he never had a really good series individually.
Like Dawson, Evans, and Fernando V, Bobby Grich put up his best year in the strike season. The home run championship was a 3-way tie, so his Black Ink Score (8) overstates his dominance as a batter. ;-)

2. Santo - 3b 13.22 seasons (#8), dh 0.29 ==> sum 13.88 (#129)
Eighth in full seasons equivalent games played at third base; number 129 in full seasons played at all "positions".That is the meaning of the line of data beside his name and everyone's except pitcher Pierce.
Ron Santo's peak seasons match the high mound, tall strike zone era. Probably the writers saw him as a merely good batter. Then the Cubs didn't win, when he might have been MVP.
Santo has been number four to eight on my personal list of eligible players not in the Hall of Fame.

3. Simmons - c 11.18 seasons (#14), dh 1.79 ==> sum 14.55 (#92)
Fourteenth in full seasons played at catcher, all in 14 heavy-duty years.
At the end(?) of the 1970s Earl Weaver said Ted Simmons was the best player of the decade, his first choice for a team. I recall admiring his incredible (to me) consistent batting records. The gleam in Earl's eye wasn't for walks or three-run homers. It must have been that consistency, and from a catcher Earl would take two-run doubles.

4. Allen - 1b 5.02 seasons, 3b 4.02 ==> sum 10.68
Richie was a great batter. When my dad was transferred to a major league media market (Philadelphia's), Richie was on his way to St Louis. We still got a lot of that devil in the newspaper next summer. Like writing messages to the fans in the dirt at first base.

5. Evans - 3b 9.19 seasons (#45), 1b 5.32 ==> sum 16.45 (#34)
6. Nettles - 3b 15.27 seasons (#2), of 0.45 ==> sum 15.89 (#49)
Second in full seasons played at third base behind Brooks Robinson (far behind). One of two dozen players with 15 full seasons at any position, 1871-1996. Nettles, Hines, and Pinson are not in the Hall of Fame; Aparicio, Brock, Hooper and Pinson not in the Hall of Merit. All of those but Nettles and Aparicio are outfielders. Once I thought Nettles should be docked some because he enjoyed the platoon advantage by team policy at the end of his career. But I noticed that he was barely platooned if at all in New York so I lost interest (NL ca1984-88, debut 39yrs 7mos).
Nettles and Evans were similar lifetime batters --merely similar, which equals uncanny similar plus 500 bases on balls to Evans. Nettles was historically great in the field while I was paying attention. I remember reading that he was great already during his Cleveland years. Of course, I never saw him on TV (no one did). It was the Yankees who put him in October's spotlight and in the Hall of Fame. . . (er, I once expected)


Looking at Minnie Minoso and Jimmy Wynn in particular makes me wonder where I would rank Tony Oliva and Reggie Smith if they were in the Hall of Merit. I have thought of Reggie Smith as just below the line --which matches the group opinion, for he is number one in the backlog. Smith was not so durable as Minoso and Wynn but my current thought is that I would Now put him right in the middle of this list of 12 --above those two, the only outfielders.

7. Minoso - of 10.68 seasons (#99) and lf 9.70 seasons (#23), 3b 0.75 ==> sum 11.29
Is there still any reasonable doubt about his age? The revision, making him three years younger, dropped from near the top of many "not in Cooperstown" lists because it now seems implausible that he lost much of a major-league worthy pro baseball career to the segregation era. Without any extra credit, Minoso is a borderline Hall of Famer, similar to Kiki Cuyler in value and type.
I am still uncertain and I feel that we may have more to learn. This placement does put Minoso above the borderline but not far above.
Ten years ago Minnie Minoso was more famous than Larry Doby --may be he still is-- and I wondered whether the Veterans Committee inducted the right man. They did! Congratulations, Vetscomm.

8. Wynn - of 11.22 seasons (#80) and cf 7.29 seasons (#70), dh 0.18 ==> sum 11.51
Was it a paternalistic nickname, the Toy Cannon? It doesn't hint at the speed so it doesn't do him justice. I recall a friend's remark about fifteen years ago: "only if it's a Toy Hall of Fame".
"A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career."--OCF. Reading at baseballfever last month, I learned from a Keltner List by "AG2004" that Wynn was stabbed in a domestic quarrel that winter. See our "Jimmy Wynn" #147. FWIW the impact of 1971 on career OPS+ is four points. Calculators of consecutive prime may give him 7 or 10 seasons passing over that one. For the seven seasons but not for the ten he was a superior base thief too.
A.G. Keltner also provides circumstantial evidence that Wynn adapted to the Astrodome, improving his home batting at the cost of some road batting. It doesn't matter to me here, or to most participants here, but it's interesting and it would matter in a real latterday campaign for the HOF if that were to do well enough that anything would matter.

9. Torre - c 5.59 seasons (#150), 1b 4.87 ==> sum 13.23
Here we don't consider his greatest accomplishment, earning 12 years salary paid by George Steinbrenner & Sons. On the broad definition he would rank no lower than number four; I see the case for number one and would today make him three. As a player, however, he isn't close.
The Braves were eclipsed in his time. Hank Aaron wasn't enough to get a mediocre team on TV, so I don't recall Torre as a catcher. I know that he was not highly regarded there and that sabermetric measures in unison support the low grade. In contrast there are revisionists to say Ted Simmons was mediocre, a relative point in Simmons' favor..
Torre was a good enough batter for HOM consideration as a career DH. In my mind's eye he is slow. (During the batting race with Ralph Garr, Sports Illustrated did a story, a cover story iirc, on "The Tortoise and the Hare".) But Torre hit triples, 29 in four seasons including 5th and 5th in the league 1970-71. Busch Stadium didn't do that without some help from the batter. Right?
As a catcher he worked less than half as much as Simmons, which is a huge difference, more than enough to outweigh Torre's moderately superior batting. Torre and Simmons split the position in 1970. Torre played first base in 1969 with McCarver catching. Does anyone know the expectation when McCarver was part of the Curt Flood /Dick Allen trade? Was Torre expected to resume catching?

10. Pierce, pitcher
Pierce comes up short in the workload department but in the end it adds up to a respectable 3300 innings. Others in his time were also short in the workload department. Probably the 1960s/70s may be viewed as an aberration, a departure from long-term trend. Expansion to 162 games is only a minority part of it but +15 innings per annum would be noticed. Pierce would have twelve seasons at 200 innings (consecutive) and six at 250, rather than nine and three.
The new pitching sabrmetricians say that Pierce worked with greater than average "leverage" and I take that for granted.

11. Freehan - c 9.78 seasons (#27), 1b 0.97 ==> sum 10.75
A very good player, perennial all-star (10 straight) for a decade while the NL was stronger at his position, twice a borderline MVP of the American League. 1968 was quite a year for Denny McLain and Bill Freehan.
As a batter Freehan was up and down, just as everyone expected of every catcher before the 1970s. Catchers can't hit every year, they have too many nagging injuries.
The lasting image of Bill Freehan is the lasting image of Lou Brock, "Out!" at the plate in Game 5. Freehan is standing upright but so is Brock. Easy to forgive only because Brock did so much right in his preceding 11 World Series games.

12. Boyer - 3b 11.29 seasons (#24), of 0.72 ==> sum 12.47
A superior thirdbasemen with the bat and the glove, he fell off a cliff after October 1964. There go the hits, walks, and home runs like a bunch of lemmings. So he lasted one month longer than the Phillies.
Boyer was six years older than Brooks Robinson, another 1955 debutante and 1964 MVP. Back in '55 Boyer was overready and Robby underready (a bonus baby?). DanG is probably right that military service in '52-53 delayed Boyer's development as a player.

Hm, working off line I forgot about paragraphs. Sorry about that, too.
Anyway, I'll be ready with my authoritative comparison of Dickey Pearce and Dobie Moore. (not!)

The election is now over. Results will be posted at 10 PM.

(back from a quick walk in light snow to the coffee shop and back)

For those who are entirely new here, I was an active contributor but I did not vote in any of the annual elections so I needed to post a sample ballot in the discussion thread.

But you can't just line up OPS+ from the 1880's and 1950's/60's as an apples-to-apples comparison.

Well of course not. Readers can supply the supporting and mitigating factors as you have done.

But think of it this way. If a Gold Glove 3B today has a 19 pt OPS+ edge over a Gold Glove 2B today, and all else is more or less equal, that's a pretty competitive pairing.

My point was not that Ed Williamson doesn't need 1884. It's that he doesn't need 27 HR.

PS. And then assume that the Gold Glove 2B today (equivalent to 3B in the 19C and deadball) is really a 2B-SS with SS accounting for 40 percent of games played.

oops, missed the ballot by not payign attention. FWIW, pulled out of my previous ballots rankings

1 Santo - did it all, including most HR by a white guy in the 1960s.
2 Grich - almost the same. Poor Oct record.
3 Simmons - 315 WS for a catcher!? Nice.
4 Torre - same WS, little less catching.
5 Evans - over 360 WS? Sweet.
6 Boyer - WARP shows a great peak and fine 12 yr run.
7 Freehan - nice hitter, depressed stats in his time, superb glove
8 Minoso - agegate clouded the issue a bit.
9 Pierce - 92 WARP in 14 years.
10 Nettles - great glove, nice bat.
11 Wynn - turn his rotten 1971 into agreat 1969 and he jumps a whole lotta places higher.
12 Allen - Winning more impt than stats. Still a deserving HoMer.