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Hall of Merit— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Monday, April 04, 2005
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He went on to have quite a nice career after that.
He went on to have quite a nice career after that.
That was Louis Santop, Hilldale's other catcher. He had already had a nice career.
Teams: 20-22 ABCs, 23-31 Hilldale, 32??, 33-35 Phi Stars, 36-37 Wash Elite Giants, 38-39 Bal Elite Giants, 39-41 Newark Eagles, 42-44 ??, 45-47 Newark Eagles
1920 .315 for Ind ABCs; 3b
2-5 vs. major-league competition
1921 .317 for Ind ABCs; 13 hr (3rd), 25 hr/550 (3rd), 10 3b (5th); 2b; all-star
4-7 vs. major-leage pitchers in California league
1922 .344 for Ind ABCs; ut
1923 .441 for Hilldale; ba 1st, 9 hr (2nd), 20 hr/550 ab (5th), 4 3b (5th); c; all-star, MVP
5-20 vs. Major-League competition
1924 .357 for Hilldale; ba 3rd, 20 2b (3rd); ss; all-star
10-40 in World Series vs. KC
47-152 in Cuban Play
1925 .346 for Hilldale; 12 sb (5th); c; all-star
1926 .313 for Hilldale; 10 hr (3rd), 17 2b (1st), 14 sb (1st); c, all-star
1927 .315 for Hilldale; c, all-star
1-10 vs. major-league competition
1928 .360 for Hilldale; ba would be 5th in league, too few ab; c
3-8 vs. major-league competition
1929 .308 for Hilldale; c, all-star
1930 .397 for Hilldale; 4 3b (3rd), 2 sb (2nd); c, all-star
1931 .359 for Phi Stars; ba 1st; c, MVP
1932 No Data
1933 .298 for Phi Stars; c
1934 .299 for Phi Stars; ut
7-19 in playoff vs. Chi Am Giants
1935 .257 for Phi Stars; c
3-11 vs. major-league competition
1936 .257 for Was Elite Giants; 3 3b (4th); c
0-3 vs. major-league competition
1937 .375 for Was Elite Giants; (high enough to place in leaders, not enough ab); c
1938 .285 for Bal Elite Giants; c
1939 .256 for Newark Eagles; 4 hr (4th), 28 hr/550 (4th); c
6-12 in playoffs
1940 .281 for Newark Eagles; c
1941 .264 for Newark Eagles; c
1942 no data
1943 no data
1944 no data
1945 .279 for Newark Eagles; c
1946 no data, manager of Newark Eagles
1947 .220 for Newark Eagles; c and manager
Career, according to Holway
1383-4292, .322
26-74, .354, against major-league competition
50 hr, 6 hr/550 ab
MVP 1923, 1931
All-star 1921 (2b), 1923, 1924 (ss), 1925, 1926, 1927, 1929, 1930
Fielding 1920 3b, 1921 2b, 1922 ut, 1924 ss, 1923, 1925-47 c
Mean avg. for 22 seasons with data, .315
Career according to MacMillan 10th
802 g, 2925 ab, 942 hits, 117 2b, 43 3b, 60 hr, .322 ba, .453 slg
Anyway, Biz Mackey --
I've started to work on his MLEs. I'm waiting to run the numbers until
a) Gary A. posts his data
b) I can find out the story of what Mackey was doing in 1932 -- there's no data for him for that season in Holway or Macmillan, and Riley says nothing about it. Was he injured? Playing for a non-league team? In Japan? Anybody know?
c) we have some discussion of estimating playing time and career length for Mackey This is an important issue. I'm pretty sure that Mackey falls somewhere between the Hartnett/Dickey/Cochrane trio and Rick Ferrell as a hitter -- closer to Ferrell than the Big Three though still above him. By reputation, he is certainly an A fielder, so where he ranks will depend a lot on how much playing time he actually had.
As far as career length goes, if Riley is correct about his d.o.b, he probably could have lasted through 1941 as a reserve catcher. I'll see how his stats match up against reserve catchers for 1939-41 to see if that's true.
But what to do about estimating playing time? Thoughts?
Indianapolis ABCs
G-64 (team 73)
AB-234
H-67
D-6
T-9 (tied for 5th)
HR-8
R-35
W-14
HP-5
SH-7
SB-4
AVE-.286 (NNL .266)
OBA-.340 (NNL .327)
SLG-.491 (NNL .365)
I still haven't put together 1921 fielding data; I should, as it should be pretty interesting for Mackey, who played a lot in the infield.
Indianapolis ABCs
G-64 (team 73)
AB-234
H-67
D-6
T-9 (tied for 5th)
HR-8
R-35
W-14
HP-5
SH-7
SB-4
AVE-.286 (NNL .266)
OBA-.340 (NNL .327)
SLG-.491 (NNL .365)
I still haven't put together 1921 fielding data; I should, as it should be pretty interesting for Mackey, who played a lot in the infield.
I hate to suggest you are wrong, but I believe they put the young Mackey out at third where the error was made and left Santop behind the plate. Can someone confirm who is right about this?
1928 Biz Mackey
Hilldale Club (+ 2 games for Baltimore)
Batting
G-58 (56 of 62 Hilldale games)
AB-219
H-78
D-13
T-4
HR-4
R-49
W-19
HP-1
SF-3
SH-1
SB-7
AVE-.356 (5th; NeL east .282)
OBA-.405 (5th; NeL east .333)
SLG-.507 (6th; NeL east .384)
Raw PF for Hilldale Park that year is 129, based on 38 home games, 27 road games.
Fielding-catcher
G-48* (1st)
DI-402* (1st)
PO-165 (2nd)
A-29 (3rd)
E-6
DP-0
FPCT-.970 (NeL east c .968)
PB-1
SBA-14
SBA/9 inn.-0.31* (1st; NeL east 0.91)
(Stolen bases were underreported in Hilldale games, to what extent I'm not sure. The figure for Hilldale's backup catcher, Joe Lewis, is 0.56.)
Fielding-shortstop
G-9
DI-64.3
PO-14
A-19
E-6
DP-3
RF-4.62 (NeL east ss 5.07)
FPCT-.846 (NeL east ss .917)
Mackey also played 3 games at first base; 2 games at third base; 1 game at second base; 1 game in right field.
Quick thoughts on PT:
-Dickey was in effect platooned for much of his career IIRC. He played 130 G five times, and 140 once in 17 years. En toto, he played in about two-thirds of his team's scheduled games.
-Hartnett played 130 games just three times in his career. He played in 65% of his teams' scheduled games.
-Cochrane played 130 games 7 times (well, 129 one of those years); he was extremely durable, appearing in three-quarters of his teams' games.
-Ferrell caught 130+ four times. He played in two-thirds of his teams' scheduled games.
Among other notable contemporaries:
-Al Lopez caught 130+ three times, appearing in two-thirds of his teams' games.
-Luke Sewell played 130+ just once and appeared in 53% of his teams' games.
-Jimmie Wilson caught 140 games once and appeared in about two-thirds of his teams' scheduled games.
-Rollie Hemsley, 130+ once, 54% of teams' games
-Ernie Lombardi, 130+ 2 times, 71% of his teams' games.
-Spud Davis was also a platooner IIRC, 130+ once, 59% of team games
-Shanty Hogan, twice at 130+, 58% of team games
-Harry Danning, thrice at 130+, 64% of team games
-Gus Mancuso, twice over 130+, 56% of team games
So based on this, 67% of team games with two-four seasons over 130+ games seems like a pretty reasonable, conservative estimate. If Mackey was known for durability, then 70-75% of team games over his career with four to six 130+ game seasons would seem reasonable.
Both Santop and Mackey made crucial mistakes: catcher Santop muffed a foul fly, and third baseman Mackey let a ground ball go between his legs. But manager Frank Warfield blamed Santop for it, and supposedly the criticism destroyed him (although he played baseball for several years afterwards).
It's eerily reminiscent of Game 6 of the 1985 World Series, isn't it?
It's eerily reminiscent of Game 6 of the 1985 World Series, isn't it?
Btw, Mackey was not charged with an error, but Santop was.
Should be "bases were full and two out," of course.
From what I have read, Mackey was the gold standard as a defensive catcher for his era.
As for Snodgrass, he was an outstanding defensive player who made a mistake (like Mackey). It happens.
Biz Mackey--48 games, 398 innings (73%)
Joseph Lewis--20 games, 144 innings (27%)
Btw, Mackey had 49 games caught overall, including one for Baltimore (I mistyped above).
Mackey played a number of seasons for Hilldale, so the park factor for this team will have a big effect on his MLEs.
Gary A., do you have park factors for any other Hilldale season?
With a raw park factor of 129 for one season, I'm inclined to set an ongoing adjusted park factor of about 105. Does that seem right?
Did Hilldale play in Hilldale park throughout the 1920s?
Separate question: does anybody know where Mackey was playing, if he was playing, in 1932? Neither Holway nor Riley has any info. If there isn't any info, I'll give him no credit for playing that year.
A first pass at MLEs should be ready tonight or tomorrow morning, with park factor adjustments possibly coming later.
any details?
any details?
He's usually picked as the greatest fielding catcher in Negro League history.
Here are more detailed park factors for 1921 Hilldale, if they are of any use:
AVE: .973957
OBA: .968756
SLG: .981847
HR: .832590
As far as I know, Hilldale played in Hilldale Park throughout the club's existence.
I thought I'd do Mackey's MLEs piece by piece. Here's the first: playing time. Working with Dr. Chaleeko's numbers for Mackey's ML-contemporaries, keeping in mind Karlmagnus's 130-game benchmark for catchers, and tracking Mackey's actual NeL career, I put together the following games played:
Year Games
1920 126, 10 c
1921 140, 30 c
1922 150, 35 c
1923 150, 134 c
1924 142, 120 c
1925 115
1926 138
1927 55
1928 124
1929 130
1930 127
1931 113
1932 0
1933 95
1934 120
1935 92
1936 103
1937 86
1938 65
1939 81
1940 53
1941 50
total 2255 games, 1876 g caught
Notes.
1) 1876 games caught has Mackey high but not at the top of his cohort in games caught: he's a little behind Lopez, a little ahead of Ferrell, and about 100-150 up on Hartnett and Dickey.
2) This total has him catching 65% of his team's games 1923-31, 33-41. I left his catching games 1920-22 out of this estimate, since he was playing other positions more than he was catching in these years, it seems.
3) My estimates have him becoming a full-time catcher two years earlier than he actually did -- in 1923 vs. 1925. His fielding numbers as a shortstop from 1928 make me think that in the majors teams would have been using utility players to fill in for middle-infield regulars rather than someone with Mackey's defensive numbers. He was splitting time at catcher in 23 and 24 because Hilldale wanted Santop's bat in the lineup, and Santop wasn't playing much anywhere else at that point, as far as I can tell. So I figure he would have caught as much as possible during these years under typical ML-conditions, with some play at other positions (on the Wally Schang model).
4) Mackey's MLE career ends, as I see it, in 1941. I've left off his 1944-47 seasons. Mackey was 43 and 44 in 1940 and 1941, so those who think these estimates are too high might drop those years off of Mackey's MLEs. Other catchers of this era played until they were 42, so I think it's plausible that Mackey could have played until 44. If his defense stayed good, he was still hitting enough to be a part-time catcher during these years. (For the standards on that, see the latter seasons of Rick Ferrell and Al Lopez). I thought it implausible that Mackey would have played in the majors at age 45 or older. Maybe because of WWII, but I doubt he would have added any notable value to his career during such appearances.
5) 1927 is low in games played because Mackey spent the first 2/3 of the season on a tour of Japan. Had he been in the majors, this wouldn't have happened, but I figure it's entirely possible Mackey had an injury we don't know about that would have cost him part of a season somewhere along the line.
I think that's everything you might want to know. Questions? Comments?
Mackey played 21 seasons (not 1932) and so if a position player would have played 2730 games. He actually played 2255 games. Hence his counting stats should be multiplied by 2730/2255, to put him level with say a SS or 2B, equivalently difficult fielding positions.
If Mackey has 2255 ML equivalent hits (which converts to 2730)at an ML equivalent OPS+ of 120,then since he's a catcher he's a HOMer (close to Gehringer, lower OPS+ but tougher fielding position). If he has 1804 hits (which converts to 2184)at an OPS+ of 115, he isn't. This primitive calculation sure ain't rocket science, but it's the way I do it.
I'm agog to see his Chris Cobb MLE hits and OPS+, which I may round down a little but not much. WS and WARP I usually ignore -- far too complicated!
I suspect he's a HOM'er unless his OPS+ rivals Cool Papa's
If I'm remembering this correctly, then it might be premature to give Mackey no credit for 1932. The fact that he shows back up in 1933 suggests to me that he must have been either a) injured in 1932 or more likely b) barnstorming or in some other non-league structure.
Personally, once we have WS estimates, I'll probably give him credit at some slightly reduced rate compared to the surrounding seasons to hedge my bet, though I doubt it'll make a big difference in the bigger picture.
In The Negro Leagues Book, Mackey isn't listed on the Hilldale roster for 1932 (though his longtime backup, Joseph Lewis, is). He is listed on the roster of the 1932 Philadelphia Royal Giants, a winter team that played in California and also toured the Far East in the late 20s and early 30s. I don't know if the 31-32 or 32-33 edition of the team is meant.
In William McNeil's book on the California Winter League, Mackey's mentioned as a Royal Giants player in 31-32, but the statistics (which are very limited--only 6 or 7 box scores for that season) don't list him.
I don't have league totals yet, but I do have the ABCs totals (for 79 games). I included the team figures for each position, along with the leading starter's.
Mackey Fielding-Catcher
G-31 (team 79; Russ Powell 40)
DI-243 (team 689.3; Powell 328.7)
PO-119 (team catchers 324; Powell 160)
A-51 (team 113; Powell 50)
E-5 (team 15; Powell 4)
DP-2 (team 8; Powell 4)
FPCT-.971 (team .967; Powell .981)
PB-5 (team 12; Powell 6)
Stolen Bases Allowed-31 (team 73; Powell 15)
SBA/9 inn.-1.15 (team 0.95; Powell 0.41)
Mackey Fielding-Second Base
G-19 (Day 46)
DI-155 (Day 376.3)
PO-36 (team 175; Day 102)
A-51 (team 267; Day 155)
E-7 (team 31; Day 16)
DP-5 (team 24; Day 14)
RF-5.05 (team 5.77; Day 6.15)
FPCT-.926 (team .934; Day .941)
Mackey Fielding-Third Base
G-18 (Day 29)
DI-167 (Day 225.7)
PO-29 (team 110; Day 37)
A-31 (team 160; Day 66)
E-3 (team 21; Day 11)
DP-3 (team 8; Day 4)
RF-3.23 (team 3.53; Day 4.11)
FPCT-.952 (team .928; Day .904)
Notes
1) Playing time has already been discussed.
2) I used 102 as the PF for Indianapolis, 1920-22. For Hilldale the data was clearly uneven (great hitter’s park in 1928 and mild pitcher’s park in 1921), so I set 1928 at 105 and then sloped downward towards 100 before and after that year. That’s a guestimate, but I think it’s adjusting Mackey’s Hilldale years in the proper direction.
3) As usual, adjustment is to major-league average for the 1920s and to national-league average 1930-on.
4) Mackey drops significantly in hitting production after 1932. The severity of the decline makes me wonder if he was injured that year, or if that was the point, to which gadfly has referred, when Mackey became a switch hitter. Anyway, it appears that Mackey's HoM case will rest much more on his play 1920-31 than on his play 1933-1941.
He's probably better than McGuire, karlmagnus, but he surely doesn't look like a definite HoMer at this point.
Looking forward to his Win Shares.
Thanks, Chris!
As always, a wonderful job. I'm typically loathe to offer suggestions because I don't want to seem ungrateful, but I think for Mackey your PAs/ABs are running just a little bit on the high side. As of now, we've got Mackey with about 3.6 AB/G for his career. For their careers, AL Lopez and Rick Ferrell were at 3.0 and 3.2 respectively (each in a couple-few hundred games less than Mackey).
In the second half of his career in particular, I think he should have fewer ABs/G. He averages about 3.6/G from 1933 onward which given his age and the number of AB/G of his catching peers seems a bit high. Taking him down to 3.2 might still be excessive, but it would be more in the realm of what his peers were doing.
Based on the rate stats and est G you've supplied, this is how his stats would compare with the different rates of AB/G
1933-1941 at 3.6 AB/G
G....PA....AB....BB...H....TB...AVG..OBP..SLG
=============================================
745..2980..2704..276..686..777..254..323..288
1933-1941 at 3.2 AB/G
G....PA....AB....BB...H....TB...AVG..OBP..SLG
=============================================
745..2627..2384..243..606..686..254..323..288
Difference between the two
G....PA....AB....BB...H....TB...AVG..OBP..SLG
=============================================
0....353...320...33...80...91...000..000..000
It's not a big difference, but it could be meaningful for some voters.
I can't speak to the first half of his career without G by POS breakouts, but in the first half of his career, he's around 3.6-3.7 AB/G. With pos breakouts we can get a better sense of whether that's about right.
Thanks again Chris, I hope you don't mind my adding two cents.
Sorry, I didn't look at your by-position breakouts from your earlier post. I'll post in a few minutes about the ABs based on them.
-First you have your year, team, PA.
-Second you have Chris's MLE's. This is by far the toughest step. Thanks to Chris for providing these!
-Third, in parentheses, you have pitchers-removed offense context. MLB for the 20s, then NL
-Fourth, you have AVG+/OBP+/SLG+
-Lastly, is the OPS+
9020 PA
8270 AB
2472 H
3250 TB
Averages
Mackey -- 0.301/0.359/0.393
Context -- (0.290/0.351/0.408)
Plusses -- 104/102/ 96
OPS+ = 98
pre-1932:
6040 PA
5571 AB
1806 H
2473 TB
Averages
Mackey -- 0.324/0.376/0.444
Context -- (0.295/0.357/0.414)
Plusses -- 110/105/107
OPS+ = 113
post-1932:
2980 PA
2699 AB
686 H
777 TB
Averages
Mackey -- 0.254/0.323/0.288
Context -- (0.280/0.340/0.396)
Plusses -- 91/95/73
OPS+ = 68
pre-1932:
6040 PA
5571 AB
1806 H
2473 TB
Averages
Mackey -- 0.324/0.376/0.444
Context -- (0.295/0.357/0.414)
Plusses -- 110/105/107
OPS+ = 113
post-1932:
2980 PA
2699 AB
686 H
777 TB
Averages
Mackey -- 0.254/0.323/0.288
Context -- (0.280/0.340/0.396)
Plusses -- 91/95/73
OPS+ = 68
Alternatively, if you just take post 1933 as a handy throwaway package, and assume that in the ML he'd have retired in 1932 to sell used cars, his OPS+ is then 113, but his career hits are only 1866. Significantly below Schang, in other words.
On my 1949 prelim I have Schang at 10 and McGuire at 40. This guy's in the high 30s, I think.
He has a somewhat Sisler career shape, but the peak, even adjusting for position is not as high and the overall package is less valuable.
Alternatively, if you just take post 1933 as a handy throwaway package, and assume that in the ML he'd have retired in 1932 to sell used cars, his OPS+ is then 113, but his career hits are only 1866. Significantly below Schang, in other words.
On my 1949 prelim I have Schang at 10 and McGuire at 40. This guy's in the high 30s, I think.
He has a somewhat Sisler career shape, but the peak, even adjusting for position is not as high and the overall package is less valuable.
Alternatively, if you just take post 1933 as a handy throwaway package, and assume that in the ML he'd have retired in 1932 to sell used cars, his OPS+ is then 113, but his career hits are only 1866. Significantly below Schang, in other words.
On my 1949 prelim I have Schang at 10 and McGuire at 40. This guy's in the high 30s, I think.
He has a somewhat Sisler career shape, but the peak, even adjusting for position is not as high and the overall package is less valuable.
I would definitely not take you up on that bet, David.
Mackey appears to be a hitter of marginally better ability than Ferrell and slightly more ability than Lopez. My guess then is that he wouldn't be hitting high in a lineup, especially since managers are loathe to bat catchers high in the order anyway (to save wear and tear). So I took a look at Ferrell's and Lopez's AB/G on a season-by-season basis. Lopez hovered between 2.9 and 3.2 and he didn't walk all that much. Ferrell walked a bit more than Mackey, and during his stretch of most playing time, he batted 3.4-3.5 times per game.
So looking at those guys, who were considered very good catchers in their time, I gave Mackey the benefit of the doubt and prior to 1931, credited him with 3.4 AB/G in all years that he caught. I should probably have gone with a lower figure to be more conservative, but this is where I went with it.
For the years where Mackey was playing other positions with frequency, I parsed the games out according to Chris's description above. In those games where he caught, 3.4 AB/g. But for those away from the dish, I hunted around for guys with comparable rate stats to Chris's MLEs. You'll not be surprised to find that comps were guys like Doc Cramer, Lloyd Waner, Matty Alou, Harvey Kuenn, Billy Herman, and Charlie Grimm. This group averaged about 3.8 AB/G for their careers, so I used this number for those games where Mackey played something other than catcher.
Anyway, so putting all this together with the data from my previous post, I hope Chris won't mind my re-running his MLEs with playing-time adjustments. I'll do that in the next post.
1920_126_503_475_28_144_223_303_342_470_3.8
1921_140_553_520_33_154_245_297_339_472_3.7
1922_150_590_556_34_188_292_338_377_525_3.7
1923_150_547_516_31_196_262_379_414_508_3.4
1924_142_537_491_45_156_208_318_375_424_3.5
1925_115_427_391_36_127_176_325_382_449_3.4
1926_138_515_469_46_142_200_303_365_426_3.4
1927__55_206_187_19__60__71_321_382_378_3.4
1928_124_465_421_43_130_172_309_373_409_3.4
1929_130_487_442_45_136_152_308_372_345_3.4
1930_127_475_432_43_146_199_339_398_460_3.4
1931_113_422_384_37_131_146_342_401_379_3.4
1932 no data (injured?)
1933__95_337_304_33__85__93_281_350_307_3.2
1934_120_427_384_43_106_130_277_350_338_3.2
1935__92_326_294_32__68__72_231_306_245_3.2
1936_103_363_330_33__78__88_238_309_268_3.2
1937__86_302_275_27__70__76_254_321_277_3.2
1938__65_229_208_21__50__53_239_309_255_3.2
1939__81_284_259_25__63__82_242_308_316_3.2
1940__53_185_170_16__44__46_258_321_273_3.2
1941__50_174_160_14__42__45_260_321_281_3.2
===========================================
CAREER TOTALS
2255 G
8353 PA
7670 AB
684BB
2318 H
3032 TB
.302 AVG
.359OBP
.395 SLG
3.4 AB/G
(1) First career--about as long as Cochrane (6% fewer plate appearances)--OPS+ 113 vs. Cochrane's 128; better defense than Cochrane, but Cochrane wass also pretty good with the glove. Maybe his defense makes up 3-5 OPS+ points, so he's somewhere between 10-12 points less than Cochrane.
(2) Second career--almost 3,000 more plate appearances with an OPS+ below that of Brad Ausmus, Ron Karkovice, Bengie Molina. If you look at the breakeven point in WARP for a top-tier defensive catcher, Mackey is probably over the line with a 68 OPS+ but not by much. He gets some marginal credit for those seasons but not a heck of a lot.
So, Mackey does not appear to be a rival for the position as best catcher of the era (he's well below Cochrane, let alone Hartnett), but seems to rank ahead of Bresnahan and Schang. He strikes me as the first catcher since Charlie Bennett who is neither an obvious inductee nor an also-ran. He'll be on my ballot, but further down than I expected.
I think that's right, at least for the later career. One reason that the MLEs can take several iterations is that the quality of a player's performance will affect his playing time. One needs to estimate playing time in order to create MLEs showing quality of performance. Once that quality is ascertained, the p-t estimates may need adjustment.
I agree that is the case with Mackey. I had set his PAs by comparison to Dickey and Hartnett rather than Lopez and Ferrell, but they are clearly the better comps for the late Mackey, who was a quite different hitter from the early Mackey. Frankly, I was surprised at how low Mackey's post-1932 OPS+ turned out to be. I do wonder if the data really contain all of Mackey's extra-base hits from those years, because his slugging appears to be _negligible_ during this period, esp. in 1935 and 1936.
(I expect Mackey's AB/g would be a bit higher than Ferrell's because Ferrell walked a lot more, so fewer of his PAs were turning into AB.)
Chris, that's why I chose to run Mackey's AB/G at 3.4 for each season prior to 1932 instead of going a bit more conservative and taking him down to 3.3 or 3.2, ditto after 1932. Where Ferrell batted around 2.9-3.1 per game in his decline, Mackey's lower walk totals suggested keeping his ab/g a little higher than that.
Lopez is a bit of a curious specimen. He didn't really walk all that much, but his AB/G were consistently lower than Ferrell's. I'm assuming this was because the NL was a lower-scoring league and so presented fewer opportunities for hitters lower in the order, but maybe he was frequently pinch-hit for?
do wonder if the data really contain all of Mackey's extra-base hits from those years, because his slugging appears to be _negligible_ during this period, esp. in 1935 and 1936.
It's interesting to see that in 1933 and 1934, his walk rate is just fine, but his SLG starts dropping. Then in 1935, the SLG really falls off the table, moreso than the drop in batting average would suggest it should.
I think that big drop might lend credence to your 1932 injury theory. Let's say the injury was one that effected his power. Hard to say how many league games were played in 1933-1934, but let's say that it's a number between 30 and 70 and not systematically scheduled. If so, it might have taken a year or two for the league to realize how much his injury had slowed his bat speed. Once word made it around, they just began pounding the zone and giving him carte blance to swing away all he wanted to, knowing he could do little damage.
Just a theory to fit what we think we might know about the numbers. ; )
In the interests of full disclosure, I should note that Mackey's walk rate for the 1930s is a statistical construct, based on a few slivers of data: the two seasons for which we actually have walks data (1921 and 1928), the ratio between NeL walk rates and ML walk rates, and the average career progression of walk rates as calculated by TangoTiger. It's entirely possible his walk rate was quite different, but in the ordinary course of things, the rate I've set is probable, but there's no direct statistical evidence to support it at all.
I do think that he is better than Bell (the first half of his career he is at least as good a hitter as Bell in his peak and an A catcher is more valuable than an A CFer). As it stands he is probably just Below Dobie Moore for me, in the 16-20 range. However, if his Win Share estimates are very favorable his peak could get him onto my ballot.
In the incomplete report I do have, he only played 9 of 41 league games for the Stars (hitting 7 of 23 with one home run). Mickey Casey was the Stars' regular catcher, playing in 36 of those games. Jake Stephens and Pete Washington played all 41, while Chaney White, Dewey Creacy, and Jake Dunn played in 40 (Jud Wilson played in 35).
I was puzzled to see that the Macmillan has him playing 29 games that year. I suppose it's possible, but he was definitely out much of the year.
Lopez is a bit of a curious specimen. He didn't really walk all that much, but his AB/G were consistently lower than Ferrell's.
Wasn't Lopez used a lot as a defensive sub? I seem to recall Bill James saying that explained his (at the time) record number of games caught.
1) I'd proposing restoring his 1927 to a more typical workload for him, since as far as we know he was playing baseball the whole year. Whereas for 1934 I'd suggest reducing it considerably.
2) I do think it's very possible his extra base hits in the 1930s are undercounted; that's definitely a problem for many games played in Philadelphia in 1934, largely because the Philadelphia Tribune was running really skeletal box scores.
But for now it looks like Biz is going to drop from #2 on my prelim to very low or off ballot. He obviously is not the hitter that John Beckwith was, much less Mule Suttles, but in Beckwith's case one can also argue that Beckwith's defensive value, at least based on his position(s), is in the ballpark. So I don't see Mackey right now rating ahead of Beckwith.
I know some will protest that Mackey was a much better defender than Beckwith, but so far that is hearsay, is it not? I mean, his 1921 numbers do not suggest a great or even a good fielder. Of course he must have improved once he focused in on being a catcher, but how much? Right now I haven't seen any evidence to answer that question.
So if there's a chance that he was closer to Ferrell or Lopez, or even Bresnahan and Schang, than to Cochrane and Hartnett, he is borderline at best.
AVE: 1.010980
OBA: .986457
SLG: .958260
HR: .527612
3B: 1.457119
The rest of the way, it's around .030ish.
Yikes!
By comparison, the league leaders in doubles were Oms and Torriente, tied with 13 each, and the league leader in triples was Lloyd with 6. The leader in home runs was Esteban Montalvo with 5. It looks like roughly half the regulars hit .300, so his average is good but doesn't particularly stand out.
My plan is to use Dr. Chaleeko's revised pa projections and to switch playing time from 1934 to 1927 as per Gary A.'s suggestion. I had held out the games in 1927 in the belief that Mackey would have missed time due to injury at _some_ point. Since it turns out that it was 1934, it makes sense to reduce his games for 1934 rather than 1927.
Based on reputation, I'm going to project him as an A defender at catcher. Based on the fielding data we have, I'm going to project him as a C defender at other positions.
I still wish we knew something about 1932 . . .
Knowing that xbh reporting in Philadelphia box scores was spotty and knowing that 1934 was a serious injury year for Mackey, it's quite possible that he continued straight through at around a 100 OPS as a hitter until his injury. That would give him good seasons in 1932 and 1933, making his prime two years longer than we are currently estimating it.
I wish we knew something about 1932.
I assume if gadfly knew the story, he'd have told it by now . . .
I wonder if anybody has written a Mackey biography . . .
That's one cool thing about this project here. Maybe somebody's sitting on some biographical info about Mackey that would clear this up (maybe for the Out of the Shadows project?)--but, by careful analysis of published records and some original work, we've managed to outline Mackey's career and locate this major turning point. It's amazing that he had a Sisler-like shape to his career, and nobody knew it--or at least nobody said so publicly.
I always thought it slightly odd that Mackey was a well-known "grand old man" in the eastern NeL, was Campanella's mentor and so on, yet didn't get picked for the HOF. Partly this was because they settled on Gibson as the catcher; but I wonder if it's because a lot of the people who were responsible for the first wave of NeL selections had simply never seen him as the hitter he was in the 20s, and thought of him as a (relatively) light-hitting defensive specialist. Certainly it's his defense most of them talk about.
"Mackey teamed with the team's young lefthanded fireballer, Slim Jones, to form a superb battery and together they provided the impetus for the Stars' drive to win the NNL pennant with a come-from-behind victory over the Chicago American Giants in the seven-game league championship series."
I say ambiguous because it can be interpreted to mean he formed a battery with Jones all season long or that he only formed a battery with with Jones during the stretch drive or the playoffs. For his part, Jones was with the team all year (per Riley), so it's Mackey whose presence is not exactly nailed down. On the other hand, I don't know whether the Stars won the championship two years running (33 and 34) but Riley writes in Jones's entry that Slim won the deciding game of the 1933 championship series against the same CAGs.
Who knows what to believe....
This is from April 16, 1932:
The headline reads:
Biz Mackey is a Witness in $160,000 Suit
Ex-Sox and Hilldale Catcher on Stand in California
The gist of the story was that Mackey was testifying in a suit involving a white boxer named Ace Hudkins. Hudkins's girlfriend was suing him for $160,000 for "breach of promise" because he had promised to marry her. But on September 1, 1930, Hudkins allegedly beat her, so she filed suit.
Mackey was called to the stand to testify to the effect that he had slept with this woman, and that she frequented the "colored" part of Los Angeles, and slept with other black men. Mackey's testimony, along with those of three other black men, one of them a Negro Leaguer named Neal Pullen, succeeded in getting the case dismissed.
Unfortunately, the only thing the article says about Mackey was that he testified and that he was a "famous National League catcher", although the headline states that he was "Ex-Sox and Hilldale catcher."
I should note that the article only states that Mackey testified that the woman "caroused" with black men "till dawn" but I assume the implication was that she had slept with black men.
I'll come back if I find anything else on Mackey.
I've been scouring the sources looking for information about to back up the reference to a 1932 Japan tour, but perhaps something similar happened in '32? It would make sense for him to do something like that, given the economic situation at the time.
Baltimore Afro-American, May 7, 1932 p. 15 has a preview of Hilldale's opening series. In it, the writer states, "Bizz Mackey will be behind the pan, backed up by the competent Baltimore Joe Lewis."
My guess is that he went to Japan. I have the one article from MLB.com stating that; which of course could be completely wrong, but at this point it's the best information I can find. The Baltimore newspaper made absolutely no mention of any tour of Japan. I think it's a reasonable guess at this point that Mackey decided to dump his Hilldale contract at the last second to barnstrom in Japan, where economic prospects were brighter. I'll let you guys know if I find anything better...
(I added a few games)
G-69 (team 79)
AB-255
H-76
D-9
T-9
HR-8
R-40
W-16
HP-5
SH-7
SB-4
AVE-.298
OBA-.351
SLG-.498
The info you're supplying may contradict Riley's info yet again. Riley has Mackey in the orient in 1927 as well, but then has him traveling in 1933 and 1934, not 1932. But as I pointed out earlier, he also may have Slim Jones's championship win wrong too. All of which is to say that, in the words of Agent Mulder, "The truth is out there."
One other thing. If Mackey totally lost his power after 1934, how long could he have hung around as a backup catcher in the big leagues? Is putting up an OPS in the high 500s offset by the defense? And if the injury in 1934 was severe, would it not also have effected his defense?
Al Lopez, for instance, was putting up awful numbers during his late 20s, yet still played another 10 seasons. In 1935, his OPS was 551 in 378 PAs.
Al Spohrer had 2,383 PAs in an eight-year career, with an OPS+ of 70.
Given Mackey's defensive skills, I don't have much doubt that he would have continued playing in the majors had he been white.
However, whether he would have played or not is going to be nearly irrelevant to his HOM case, at least for my vote. Like the majority of Sisler's post-injury career, Mackey's post-1932 career looks to be a non-factor.
On the other side of the argument though, I caution against judging Mackey solely on his overall estimated OPS+. Just as his post-1932 career should not count for him very much, it certainly shouldn't subtract from his pre-1932 career.
Definitely agree, Mackey. Unfortunately, unless Chris' WS estimations tell a different tale, it appears that he may be roommates with Sisler in the "close, but no cigar" section near my ballot.
Even in the first half of his career he had one 140, one 130 and one 120 OPS+. It is not at all obvious that he was a better hitter than Roger Bresnahan or Wally Schang. On the contrary it appears almost certain that he was not as good.
And while his defensive reputation was stellar, the only defensive evidence we've seen (from 1921) shows a mediocre defender. Obviously he got better once he or somebody decided that he would focus on catching. And the fact that he played some IF suggests a very athletic fellow, but that's skills not value. So to date I consider the quality of his defense to be an open question.
Of course we have not seen his WS but since I am more of a peak/prime voter I'm not sure that his WS analysis will be a deal-maker.
Right now I consider Bresnahan to be the best catcher candidate, but Mackey will rate more highly because his case is still being actively considered. Bresnahan's place in the pecking order, on the other hand, is pretty well fixed.
I will have Mackey about #16 on (off) my ballot while Bresnahan will continue to be in the 20s somewhere. (If anything Howie's positional analysis on the ballot discussion thread tempts me to move Bresnahan up but I have fended off that temptation before.) If and when I feel confident about Mackey, and if my current impression becomes fixed, then he will probably be down in the 30s.
Fielding-catcher
G-48* (1st)
DI-402* (1st)
PO-165 (2nd)
A-29 (3rd)
E-6
DP-0
FPCT-.970 (NeL east c .968)
PB-1
SBA-14
SBA/9 inn.-0.31* (1st; NeL east 0.91)
(Stolen bases were underreported in Hilldale games, to what extent I'm not sure. The figure for Hilldale's backup catcher, Joe Lewis, is 0.56.)
Fielding-shortstop
G-9
DI-64.3
PO-14
A-19
E-6
DP-3
RF-4.62 (NeL east ss 5.07)
FPCT-.846 (NeL east ss .917)
Mackey also played 3 games at first base; 2 games at third base; 1 game at second base; 1 game in right field.
It's also worth noting that fans voted Mackey the starting catcher in the first East-West All-Star Game in 1933, over Josh Gibson. In 1934 he wasn't even on the ballot. He played in three more East-West games, in 1935, 1936, and 1938 (plus an honorary appearance in 1947, on his 50th birthday). He finished second among eastern catchers to Gibson in '35 and '36, and was voted the starting job in '38 at the age of 40 (beating out Gibson and Bill Perkins).
A back injury?
:-D
Take your time, Chris. My impatience is only a testament to your fine work. :-)
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing--it's important to remember his age when this decline occurs.
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