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Hall of Merit— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Monday, November 22, 2004
Burleigh Grimes and Dolf Luque
Lot of quality there, but packaged in different ways.
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1. Kelly in SD Posted: November 22, 2004 at 06:59 PM (#977637)Team: Pit 1916-17, Bro 1918-26, NYN 1927, Pit 1928-29, BosN 1930, StLN 1930-31, ChiN 1932-33, StLN 1933-34, Pit 1934, NYA 1934.
Record: 270-212 / 3.52 ERA, 4.41 RA, 3.79 LERA / 1.17 k/w / 12.29 WH9IP
Win Shares: career: 286
3 consecutive yrs: 72
7 non-consecutive yrs: 181
per 40 gs (start + .6(relief appearances): 20.1
20 in a season: 7
25: 4
30: 2
All-Stars: Win Shares league all star: 6 time (1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929) with 1 time best in NL (1921). STATS league all star: 5 (1918, 1920, 1921, 1928, 1929)
Fibonacci Win Points: 209
ERA+: 107
Chris J.’s Tools: Run Support Index 106.67 (48th all-time out of 191), Defensive Win Shares Support 4.1 (108th / 191)
Black Ink/Grey Ink: 38/212
Bill James Rank: 62
Top 10s: ERA 6 times with 2 firsts. ERA+ 6 times with 1 first. Wins 11 times with 2 firsts. Win% 7 times with 1 first. Ks 8 times with 1 first. IP 10 times with 3 firsts. WHIP 5 times. H/9 5 times. K/9 8 times with 1 first.
Dolf Luque “The Pride of Havana”
Team: BosN 1914-15, Cin 1918-29, Bro 1930-31, NYN 1932-35.
Record: 193-179 / 3.24 ERA, 3.95 RA, 3.93 LERA / 1.23 k/w / 11.60 WH9IP
Win Shares: career: 241
3 consecutive yrs: 80
7 non-consecutive yrs: 154
per 40 gs (start + .6(relief appearances): 20.2
20 in a season: 3
25: 2
30: 1
All-Stars: Win Shares league all star: 3 times (1921, 1923, 1925) with 1 time best in NL (1923), 1 time best in Majors (1923). STATS league all star: 1 (1923)
Fibonacci Win Points: 114
ERA+: 117
Chris J.’s Tools: Run Support Index 91.81 (180th all-time out of 191), Defensive Win Shares Support 9.0 (51st / 191)
Black Ink/Grey Ink: 27/134
Bill James Rank: Not listed in top 100, I assume 100-200
Top 10s: ERA 6 times with 2 firsts. ERA+ 4 times with 2 firsts. Wins 3 times. Win% 4 times with 2 firsts. Ks 5 times with 1 first. IP 5 times. WHIP 7 times with 1 first. H/9 6 times with 3 firsts. K/9 3 times.
Dolf Luque Cuban Record, from Holway
1913 2-4
1914 7-4 in Winter league; 3-0 vs. NY Lincoln Stars
1915 12-5 in Winter League; 5-2 vs. ABCs
1916 4-4
1917 no data
1918 no data
1919 10-4; 6-3 vs. major-league competition
1920 4-2
1921 no data
1922 11-9
1923 4-2
1924 3-0
1925 3-4
1926 no data
1927 6-4
1928 8-2
1929 4-0
1930 no data
1931 no data
1932 2-2
1933 no data
1934 6-2
1935 4-2
1936 no data
1937 0-1
career 90-51 in Winter league play
104-56 with games vs. NeL and ML opponents added
After that, I believe he converted to Caucasian and started pitching for whites-only teams. He pitched for Long Branch in the NY/NJ league in 1912 and 1913. Baseball Library lists him at 22-5 for Long Branch in 1913.
The text at BaseballLibrary.com:
One of the first Cubans to succeed in the majors, Luque came to the U.S. in 1912 to pitch for Long Branch (NY-NJ League) and was 22-5 in 1913. After a couple of unsuccessful trials with the Braves, he caught on with the Reds during WWI and stayed for 12 seasons.
Indicates that he was in the US playing minor league ball at an early age, but took a while to stick in MLB. Do we give him credit for both MLB & Cuban ball?
But what, in this case to make of his Cuban record?
In Mendez' case, the Cuban record is the primary means of determining "what kind of player he was." His value (defined as ML value comparable to most other players) is not determinable. We have to settle for "what kind of player was he" and his Cuban record suggests that he was the kind of player who would have accumulated a fair amount of value in the MLs if given the chance.
And it suggests he was a better pitcher than Luque.
In Luque's case, his ML record seems to provide a clear pitcher of "what kind of player he was" as well as of his value in a ML environment.
So, does he get extra credit for his stellar work in Cuba? Unlike most cases of "extra credit" (Cravath, the WWI and II cases) here we're not talking about what he would have done if he had had the chance, we're talking about what he did in between those chances. Do we allow him to accumulate additional value in the winter? Or not?
I don't think we've ever had a case quite like this.
would we give extra credit to Eppa Rixey if he terrorized winter ball in the Ohio farmland?
Luque is somewhere in the 5th to 10th range for his era (say 1910-1940). Mendez was better in Cuba but in the same cluster. Mendez was perhaps not quite as good as Redding in the NeL but in the same range.
So given the chance to pitch a normal career in the MLs (of course, Luque did have that opportunity, give or take a year maybe), none is a NB. All are somewhere in the borderline cluster, but maybe not at the head of the borderline cluster.
I wonder if I have been overrating Mendez and Redding just by having them on my ballot, sometimes as high as 6-8 but more recently lower than that. Have I lowered them enough having them in 12-14 range?
And by this logic, Luque belongs where I had him before. No extra credit for pitching in the winter, and his success would suggest that Cuba wasn't as good as the MLs (well, we knew that), that a guy who dominated in Cuba was at best a borderline candidate for the HoM. And if he's not as good as Mendez, who's not as good as Redding, who may or may not deserve to rate as highly as 12th, then Luque cannot possibly make my ballot.
This is a hypothesis. How does it sound?
Yes. I haven't had time to work on the implications as much as I'd like yet, and having team w-l records, IP, and ERA for Luque's Cuban career would help make conversions more reliable, but I think Luque does give us a good data point for judging ML pitchers against NeL pitchers.
On giving Luque credit: My view is that he doesn't get credit for winter ball when he was playing in the majors, any more than Torriente was getting Cuban credit on top of NeL credit.
However, all that I have read suggests that Luque was slow catching on in the majors because he was Cuban. Teams were wary of signing him and held him to a higher standard. My conclusion from his Cuban record is that he was good enough to break into the majors in 1915, when he was 25, which would have given him 300-400 more ML IP.
On Luque vs. Mendez: Mendez at his best was definitely a better pitcher than Luque, but Luque had 20-year career as a pitcher.
FWIW, I 100% agree on his winter league ball not counting for him. Unless we're going to start giving credit to the major leaguers who barnstormed in their off time.
"Luque was born in Havana on August 4, 1890...He was also of modest extraction, so when the republican army was organized, he enlisted and became an artilleryman. He also became a baseball star as a hard-hitting third baseman on an army team. The Marqueses of the Vedado Tennis Club, the exclusive society that fielded one of the best amatuer teams in Cuba, recruited him. But Adolfo had such an arm that he became a pitcher, soon signed by Fe [a team in the Cuban League]..."
[discussion of his major league career]
"Luque became the toast of Cuba, where he was also having great seasons during the winters. Luque became the new Mendez but was as different from "The Black Diamond" as he was from Miguel Angel. Mendez was a polite, unassuming man. Luque was the opposite. He was a snarling, vulgar, cursing, aggressive pug, who, though small at five-seven, was always ready to fight. He was known as a headhunter, who mastered the art of pitching close to the batter...In the majors Luque endured being the butt of many racial epithets...to which he responded with murderous beanballs..."
"In the United States Luque was inevitably known as the 'Havana Perfecto' or 'The Pride of Havana,' after cigars. But in Cuba his nickname was "Papa Montero," after a legendary Afro-Cuban rumba dancer and pimp...celebrated in songs and poems."
Luque was prominent in Cuba and Mexico as a successful manager for many years after his retirement.
Gonzalez says the following about the Long Branch team (p. 141):
"...according to Peter C. Bjarkman, the Long Branch Cubans, organized by Dr. Antonio Hernandez Henriquez, a Cuban entrepreneur residing in New Jersey, played in the New Jersey-New York State League. Proximity to New York, and the fact that professional baseball was not played there on the Sabbath, allowed the Cuban players to showcase their talents before major league teams, who 'often supplemented sparse travel money by scheduling exhibition contests with the conveniently located Long Branch team on the available Sunday afternoon dates.' A chief beneficiary was Adolfo Luque, who was signed by the Boston Braves. Luque, in fact, went 22 and five with Long Branch in 1913, a year in which they received some coverage in Havana's Baseball Magazine, where...the team...was called an 'academy' for Cubans with major league ambitions. Long Branch won the championship of the New York-New Jersey League in 1913, with Juan Viola leading the league in hits with 131 and Luque in winning percentage with .815. As far as I have been able to ascertain, the following players performed with Long Branch during the two years in which the team seems to have been active: Jose Acosta, Angel Aragon, Tomas del Calvo, Migue Angel Gonzalez, Jose Maria Gutierrez, Fidel Hungo, Adolfo Luque, Luis Padron, Tomas Romanach, Ricardo Torres, and Juan Viola. This is a squad made up of stars, quite a few of them bound for the majors. Another common denominator is that they are all white."
For the years 1912-1918, however, Dolf Luque had fewer than 100 major league innings. If you view "race" as a continuum rather than just (literal and metaphorical) "black and white", then it is clear to me that Luque was held to a 'higher standard', as Chris states above.
The fact that Luque was relatively swarthy, and has a large body of (incomplete) pre-1919 statistics from alternate leagues, clearly separates him from the "late bloomer" players like Sam Leever on the one hand or Joe McGinnity on the other.
In general, I am much more pursuaded by the alternate-league stats and impressions than I am by the low ERA+ numbers earned in the majors in 13 innings before 1918.
Apply a "racism factor", then I am adding 600 "lost-innings" at his career 117 ERA+. That is about 3 years worth of lost time over the 7 years from 1912 to 1918. I consider this a reasonable addition -- neither conservative, like I was in excluding all of Faber's minor league numbers, nor all-inclusive, as I am with Cravath's PCL/AA numbers.
Adding 600 innings gives Luque 3800 career IP -- fewer than either Rixey or Faber, and with an intermediate peak. Since I had Faber/Rixey 1/2 last year, I will probably have Luque a little lower -- in the 6 to 8 range, but safely "on ballot".
That's why the innings pitched credit I will be using is a bit lower than Phillybooster's, but I think it's pretty certain Luque ought to be getting credit for his Cuban play prior to breaking into the majors.
I'm hearing calls above to add maybe 450-600 innings to his record to account for twilight racism slowing his progress. That would be 50-67 more decisions. But how effective should we assume he was in those innings? Phillybooster said I am adding 600 "lost-innings" at his career 117 ERA+. The parallel in my system would be to assume the .568 equivalent winning percentage I have for his whole career. That seems too generous to me, since outside of his two great season his equivalent WP was .535. If I assume 450 innings at a .535 WP, that would bring him to 230-178. That would make a case for him, but not an overwhelming case, and certainly not enough to make him competitive with Rixie in my mind.
Rixie > Willis > Powell > Quinn > Grimes
Sorry, Burleigh.
Hmmm...that's going to make him a borderline candidate for my ballot. He may just miss it by a whisker.
Out of this group of 30, Luque ranks 12th in ERA+ at 123. All 11 pitchers ahead of him are in the HOM or are first-ballot selections when they become eligible. The next eight pitchers on the list are in the HOM or will be serious candidates for induction when they become eligible. The ten closest to Luque in ERA+:
Tim Keefe* 129
Bob Gibson 128
Dazzy Vance 127
Warren Spahn 126
Eddie Plank* 125
DOLF LUQUE 123
Red Faber* 121
Tom Seaver 121
Gaylord Perry 120
Old Hoss Radbourne* 120
Joe McGinnity* 118
Out of this group of 30, Luque is tied with Carl Hubbell for 20th in snW. Sixteen of the 19 pitchers ahead of him are in the HOM or serious candidates for induction. The three who I have questions about are Jack Quinn, Early Wynn and Charlie Hough. Three of the next five behind Luque are first-ballot HOMers and the others are Don Sutton and Tommy John:
Red Faber* 221
Charlie Hough 216
T.F. Brown* 215
Tim Keefe* 212
Eppa Rixey 211
DOLF LUQUE 209
Carl Hubbell 209
Bab Gibson 207
Don Sutton 207
Dazzy Vance 200
Tommy John 200
Out of this group of 30, Luque is tied with Warren Spahn for 15th in snWPCT. The ten closest pitchers to Luque:
Joe McGinnity* .593
Dazzy Vance .592
Gaylord Perry .591
Tom Seaver .581
DOLF LUQUE .577
Warren Spahn .577
Red Faber* .576
Phil Niekro .571
Jack Quinn .571
Bill Hutchison .565
Steve Carlton .562
All statistics courtesy of The Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia.
True, but his DERA is still higher than that of any of the other serious pitcher candidates. For most pitchers, their DERA+ is not as good as their ERA+. For Grimes, the two are about equal:
ERA+ 107
DERA+ 106
Compare
Rixey
ERA+ 115
DERA+ 112
Luque
ERA+ 117
DERA+ 112
DERA+ 106
Chris, where are you getting the league average totals for DERA?
I agree. I gave Luque credit for several hundred additional innings, but when I do I roughly get...
JACK QUINN!
and that's probably not going to be enough to make my ballot.
DERA+ 106
So this is telling us that Grimes is basically the same pitcher regardless of defense in relation to the other pitchers in the league. Does that make sense? If Grimes had average defenses behind him (instead of the crap he actually had), wouldn't his ERA+ have been greater? Color me confused.
It would appear that in Grimes' case ERA managed to compensate for the "crappiness" of the defenses behind them. (A low range defense will give up hits that should have been caught, hurting his ERA. A high range defense will catch balls that typically would have been hits, helping his ERA. An average range defense will give up an average amount of hits, and then ERA compensates appropriately for the errors, as long as they are randomly distributed.)
From the bp glossary. DERA is a normalized stat: average is always 4.50.
I realized it right after I made my post, Chris. That's why I asked you to forget about it in my next post. :-) Thanks, anyway!
(A low range defense will give up hits that should have been caught, hurting his ERA. A high range defense will catch balls that typically would have been hits, helping his ERA. An average range defense will give up an average amount of hits, and then ERA compensates appropriately for the errors, as long as they are randomly distributed.)
Maybe, but his normalized DERA is actually lower than his ERA+. That's hard for me to swallow.
fwiw, I see Luque as having a major-league equivalent ERA+ of 97 for his 1913-16 Cuban play, so I don't think he would have hit his career-average quality until 1917 or 1918.
In the four years from 1913-1916, you have his Cuban Record at 25-17, and project an ERA+ of 97. In his peak, from 1922-1925, you have his Cuban record as 21-15, while we know his ERA+ in the majors was about 150. When all we have are Cuban numbers, it is likely the best we can do to try to project them onto the major leagues, but when we have 3000+ actual major league innings, isn't our sample size large enough to reasonably project back, and give us a more relevant answer than attempting to translate seven decisions per year into a MLE?
See below:
OCF:
But how effective should we assume he was in those innings? Phillybooster said I am adding 600 "lost-innings" at his career 117 ERA+. The parallel in my system would be to assume the .568 equivalent winning percentage I have for his whole career. That seems too generous to me, since outside of his two great season his equivalent WP was .535.
Of the 29 pitchers Mr. Newburg lists as having 3000 innings from their age 28 season, Luque ranks 27th in Major League innings pitched before his age 28 season (more than only Hutchison (17) and McGinnity (0).
If you do not think racism played a significant role in keeping him out of the majors, then that is fine and I can understand ranking Luque based solely on his Major League accomplishments. If you recognize that this racist "gray area" kept him out of the majors for some time, then the question has to be how much extra credit to give him, and at what level. The extra 600 innings that I proposed giving Luque moves him from 27th on James's list to only 19th.
As I said, I think this is very conservative. Six hundred additional innings brings him to 697 total pre-age-28 innings, and moves him over the following eight pitchers (innings, and appx. ERA+ for those innings in parentheses): Niekro (140 IP, 104 ERA+), Hough (252 IP, 107 ERA+), Brown (413 IP, 134 ERA+), Newsom (517 IP, 110 ERA+), Quinn (528 IP, 113 ERA+), Hubbell (634 IP, 127 ERA+), Faber (686 IP, 118 ERA+), and Spahn (686 IP, 132 ERA+).
Of these pitchers, only Niekro (104 v. 115) had a pre-age-28 ERA+ more than 5 points below his career ERA+. Spahn was well above his career number, and the rest were within a few points either year.
So, again, 600 innings keeps Luque well in the bottom half of pre-age-28 innings. A low-side estimate of the expected ERA+ in those innings would be Niekro's small sample, and could take you down as far as 106. More realistic, however, is that he'd fall on a standard bell curve and be just about at his career average.
I am therefore sticking to my analysis of 600 innings are a career-average ERA+. In my analysis, that is about one notch below Red Faber, and will debut in the 6-10 range.
I don't have time to write up a detailed explanation of my estimates, but here's a copy of my notes.
1913-1916 25-17, .595 winning percentage, assume .520 team, so 116 sn-ERA+
1919-29 53-27, .663 winning percentage. Assume.520 team, so 134 sn-ERA+
1932-37 12-7, .632 winning percentage
1919-29 in major leagues, 18.2 wins above an average pitcher
Actual record 148-149.
Avg. pitcher 148.5-148.5
Luque 166.7-130.3, .561 wp, 113 sn - ERA+
Estimate .84 conversion factor for Cuban play, (as opposed to .87 for Negro-league play)
1913-16, MLE sn-ERA+ 97.
Given the shortness of the Cuban seasons, I think it's unwise to hang an estimate of value on just a couple of seasons. Luque's performance across the 1920s indicates that he was a substantially better pitcher then (or played on better teams) than he did in the mid-teens. Luque's early ML performance shows that he was still improving as a pitcher, while his performance across the 1920s, except for his one huge season, was pretty steady.
My estimate of a 97 ERA+ for his early years may be slightly conservative, (he could have been at a 103 ERA+ or something like that), but I doubt he was signficantlly above average. I think projecting him for these years at his career average is a huge overestimate. If he'd been that good, I believe he'd have been pitching in the major leagues. Teams weren't willing to deal with the race issues for an average pitcher, but when Luque showed that he was a great pitcher, they figured it was worth it.
86 George Uhle
82 Carl Mays
61 Wilbur Cooper
58 Burleigh Grimes
55 Urban Shocker
54 Dolf Luque
50 Babe Adams
31 Herb Pennock
31 Earl Whitehill
29 Jack Quinn
22 Eppa Rixey
21 Waite Hoyt
20 Lee Meadows
13 Jesse Haines
10 Red Faber
10 Dazzy Vance
9 Stan Coveleski
Grimes wasn't a first-tier hitter, but he's definately a best-of-the-rest'er
Also, long as I'm here, here's Dolf Luque.
1914- 2-10 with a 5.71 ERA in the International League
1915- 15-9 with a 1.18 ERA (which must be wrong if 290 H+BB in 225 IP is right).
Spent the next 3 seasons in the AA with sub-3.00 ERAs (if the numbers are accurate) but pitched 167 and 79 IP (and the 1917 ERA also looks unlikely with 109 H+BB). Put it all together in 1918 and went to the bigs to stay.
The article also notes he jumped to the BrookFeds after the 1915 season, just before the league collapsed.
http://memory.loc.gov/service/gc/spalding/00161/00160v.jpg
I haven't found any year-by-year stats yet, so any further info would be great.
A couple of arguments in favor:
- Unlike barnstorming, the Cuban League was an organized, completely independent league with a long history and traditional rivalries. These games really meant something. They were not analogous to modern minor league seasons. In fact, Luque and other Cuban players may have attached more emotional significance to their Cuban League pennant races than to the American major league races.
- We value pitchers in part by how much they work, how many innings they put in. Luque pitched in the majors until he was 44 years old, yet has "only" 3200 ML innings to show for it. In reality, though, he also had approximately 1300 additional innings of work in the Cuban League. Besides a late start in the majors, isn't it possible that by pitching winters in Cuba he was sacrificing some ML innings in order to put in innings in the Cuban league? Shouldn't he get some credit for those innings?
An argument against:
- The major leagues generally prohibited players other than native Cubans from participating in the Cuban League. Giving Luque extra credit for these innings would give him an unfair advantage relative to other major league players.
My opinion:
An analogy that seems relevant is post-season play. Like the World Series and other post-season championships, the games in the Cuban League were important and hard fought. On the one hand, it hardly seems fair to the participants not to give some credit for their accomplishments. On the other hand, giving them extra credit doesn't seems fair to those who through no fault don't have the opportunity to participate.
I'm sure some HOM voters give players credit for their post-season accomplishments and others do not. Personally, I think it's fair to give a modest "bonus" to players who do well in the post-season series - I work in units of win shares, so I assign a player 1 or 2 extra WS for a good performance in a World Series. I intend to give Luque similar small bonuses for his Cuban League play. However, since I can see both sides of this argument, I will not try to convince other voters to do likewise.
Dolf Luque
All-Time List: 1st in Years Pitched (22), 2nd in Games Won (106)
seasons 1912 to 1944/45
10+ games pitched, 11 times '14/15 to '34/35.
Did not pitch '18/19, '21, '25/26, '30, '31/32
No season played '33/34
Totals 216 g, 113 cg, 106-71 W-L, .599
Team finished first with a 101-66 mark.
1. Middleton: 21-9, 2.01 ERA in 278 IP
2. Northrup: 16-13, 3.08 ERA in 222 IP
3. Perdue: 14-9, 2.35 ERA in 222 IP.
4. Luque: 13-8, 2.64 ERA in 167 IP.
5. Palmero: 11-6, 2.64 ERA in 153 IP
1912: 0-3 in 7 games for Fe in the Cuban League.
1913: 0-2 in 2 games for Fe in the Cuban League.
1913: 22-5 in 28 games, 189 IP for Long Branch in the NY-NJ League.
1914: 2-10 in 14 games at Jersey City in the International League.
1915: 15-9 in 31 games for Toronto in the International League.
1916: 13-8 for Louisville in the AA.
1917: 4-4 in 9 games for the Orientals i Cuban League.
1917: 2-4 in 19 games for Louisville AA.
1918: 11-2 in 18 games for Louisville AA.
This is really helpful data.
You all must realize the potential disaster that was just averted here? Half of the posters here were on the verge of giving Luque extra credit because they believed he was unjustly held out of professional baseball due to racial issues when in fact he was in pro ball but unable to break through to the majors. His being stuck in the minors was just a fact of life of the era -- IE Lefty Grove.
Just because one cannot locate good minor league information via an internet search doesn't mean it didn't happen.
Additonal blunders like this will affect the credibility of all involved. Please look before you leap.
And I don't think Luque was in danger of placing ahead of Rixey, for example, even with overdone extra credit.
Aren't we overreacting here? I don't see this big push for Luque.
FWIW, credit for his pre-major league years still (barely) leaves him off the end of my ballot.
So apparently having had a discussion and having resolved it satisfactorily before the next round of balloting is still and nevertheless a blunder.
Well, I didn't see any ballots on the 1940 ballot discussion with Luque on it, maybe there were a couple, I don't know. But "disaster" and "blunder" don't seem to me to be from the same planet as the discussion I've been reading.
Now if we really want to blow our credibility, we could always elect Wes Ferrell.
No one implied he was held out of professional baseball due to racial issues . . . rather that he was held out of major league baseball due to racial issues. Look at his numbers for Toronto in 1915 at age 24, and no one gives him a shot in 1916? Same thing the next year. "White" players with the same numbers get roster shots much more easily.
Meanwhile, I'm probably one of Luque's biggest fan so far -- and part of that is partially due to the fact that I am much more pro-pitcher than the general electorate and also give full credit to Cravath's minor league numbers -- and I've got Luque 6-8. I'd hardly call that a "potential disaster". Certainly no more than, say, whoever the worst shortstop of leftfielder is, or that Negro League inductee for whom dozens of 0-fer box scores are going to appear next year, lowering his career average to .216. As always, we do the best with the numbers we have, but I certainly don't change my position that we have to take best guesses with unknowns, and not write them off entirely.
The minor league numbers were useful in showing that Luque was certainly major-league capable in at least 3 or 4 years before he became a regular.
More info would also, of course, be helpful in the analysis, such as whether there was an injury that limited him in 1917, or why he didn't pitch the full season in Louisville.
1913: 22-5 in 28 games, 189 IP for Long Branch in the NY-NJ League.
134 H, 128 SO, 85 BB
1914: 2-10 in 14 games at Jersey City in the International League.
108 IP, 129 H, 69 R, 41 SO, 65 BB
1915: 15-9 in 31 games for Toronto in the International League.
225 IP, 190 H, 89 R, 133 SO, 100 BB
1916: 13-8 for Louisville in the AA.
38 G, 167 IP, 147 H, 49 ER, 100 SO, 68 BB, 2.64 ERA
1917: 4-4 in 9 games for the Orientals i Cuban League.
1917: 2-4 in 19 games for Louisville AA.
79 IP, 71 H, 37 R, 21 ER, 49 SO, 38 BB, 2.39 ERA
1918: 11-2 in 18 games for Louisville AA.
117 IP, 97 H, 35 R, 26 ER, 64 SO, 39 BB, 2.00 ERA
Then Cincinnati picked him up, presumably in July. The player shortage that year gave chances to a lot of guys who might have gone overlooked otherwise.
Someone asked whether Luque pitched winter ball in Cuba during his ML career. My interpretation is yes, he did, in more years than not. That is, the Cuban season was played (largely?) during the ML offseason and Luque usually participated.
Figueredo's record for Armando Marsans includes successive lines
1919-20 Almendares 21g . . .
1920-21 DID NOT PLAY
1921 DID NOT PLAY
1922-23 Almendares 34g
My interpretation is that the "1921" season was late in that year, completed before the end of the year.
The record for Jose Lopez includes
1929-30 DID NOT PLAY
1930 Habana 12ab . . .
1931-32 Regla 39ab . . .
So "1930" in Luque's record represents another season played late in the year and completed before the end of the year.
The records of Dolf Luque and a few others jointly show the following pattern of seasons completed before the New Year ("E": eg, 1921), opened after the New Year ("L": most of 1900 to 1913), overlapping the turn of the year ("O": most of 1913-14 to 1959-60), and not played ("_": eg, 1933-34)
Cuban baseball season in relation to New Year
'90s : O L O O O _ _ O E L = 1900
'00s : L L L L L L L L O L = 1910
'10s : O L L O O O ?_? O O = 1919-20
'20s : O E O O O O O O O O = 1929-30
'30s : E O O _ O O O O O O = 1939-40
'40s : O O O O O O O O O O = 1949-50
'50s : O O O O O O O O O O = 1959-60
The one juxtaposition "E L" indicates a calendar year without any games played, although no season was skipped (they played in late 1898 and early 1900). "?-?" indicates that a season was skipped but I don't know which one (they played 1915-16, sometime 1917, and 1918-19).
--
Luque's stats as listed in "The Historical Register" by Bob Hoie and Carlos Bauer.
1912: 0-3 in 7 games for Fe in the Cuban League.
1913: 0-2 in 2 games for Fe in the Cuban League.
1917: 4-4 in 9 games for the Orientals in Cuban League.
According to Figueredo, those are the only three seasons Luque played with Fe or Oriental. In the same layout as above, here are his games pitched by season.
Dolf Luque, games pitched in Cuba
'10s: __ _7 _2 _6 16 -?9?- 20 __ 15
'20s: 10 __ 23 11 ~9 __ 16 13 17 15
'30s: __ __ _6 __ 10 _7 _7 _1 _1 __
'40s: __ __ __ __ _1
Luque was a manager for 30 seasons in 37 "Winters" 1919-20 to 1955-56. Broadly, his workload in Cuba was heavy during his ML career.
FYI, here is the same record for Armando Marsans, whose ML career was entirely in the 1910s.
Armando Marsans, games played in Cuba
'00s: __ __ __ __ 26 24 30 35 41 _9
'10s: 26 17 23 29 33 25 -15?- __ 21
'20s: __ __ 34 33 _4 _8 21 _1
From Jorge Figueredo's _Cuban Baseball: A Statistical History_ and _Who's Who in Cuban Baseball_:
1. Martin Dihigo 107-56, .656 (1922-47)
2. Adolfo Luque 106-71, .599 (1912-45)
3t. Carlos Royer 90-43, .677 (1892-1911)
3t. Adrian Zabala 90-83, .520 (1935-55)
5. Manuel "Cocaina" Garcia 85-61, .582 (1926-48)
6. Jose Munoz 82-60, .577 (1900-14)
7. Jose Mendez 76-28, .731* (1908-27)
8. Tomas de la Cruz 71-78, .477 (1934-47)
9. Miguel Fornieles 70-63, .526 (1952-61)
10. Conrado "Connie" Marrero 69-46, .600 (1946-58)
*-Mendez is the all-time leader in winning pct.
“The stat I wish existed would be the opposite of the "Most Similar by Age" list, where you can now see that at 28, Luque was "Most Similar" to Otis Lambeth, a career 11-9 pitcher who pitched his final 7 innings at age 28. Thank you very much, I learned a lot. My new stat would be "Most Similar FROM Age", so that instead of looking at Luque's career from birt to age 28, you could look at it from Age 28 onward only.”
With Wins Shares you can look at value patterns, so I it might be interesting to see who had similar value patterns to Luque. All the lists below are pitchers only, though they include hitting win shares.
Luque had 4 Win Shares before age 28, from 28 on he had 237. That ties him for 24th all time with Nolan Ryan. Cy Young was 1st with 480, 42 players had 200 or more.
Here is the list with 200 or more, you can tell me how many of these guys are HOM worthy.
Total WS28+ Player
634 480 Young, Cy
374 367 Niekro, Phil
476 365 Alexander, Pete
412 357 Spahn, Warren
391 333 Grove, Lefty
369 321 Perry, Gaylord
391 317 Radbourn, Old Hoss
361 289 Plank, Eddie
560 276 Johnson, Walter
269 269 McGinnity, Joe
296 264 Brown, Three Finger
305 257 Hubbell, Carl
398 257 Clemens, Roger
317 256 Gibson, Bob
256 256 Wilhelm, Hoyt
286 255 Johnson, Randy
426 253 Mathewson, Christy
287 252 Quinn, Jack
309 246 Wynn, Early
366 243 Carlton, Steve
292 242 Faber, Red
241 239 Vance, Dazzy
413 238 Keefe, Tim
[strong]241 237 Luque, Dolf[/strong]
334 237 Ryan, Nolan
322 234 Ruffing, Red
315 233 Rixey, Eppa
359 233 Maddux, Greg
388 233 Seaver, Tom
243 227 Adams, Babe
221 221 Hutchison, Bill
258 221 Walters, Bucky
233 217 Hough, Charlie
399 216 Mullane, Tony
319 215 Sutton, Don
312 212 Lyons, Ted
233 210 Leonard, Dutch
259 206 Hecker, Guy
245 204 Coveleski, Stan
237 204 Newsom, Bobo
223 201 Root, Charlie
245 200 Jones, Sad Sam
Luque from age 30 to 34 had win share totals of 23,18, 39, 14, 27. A very Bret Saberhagenish pattern. Any way, that is 121 total. That is good for 15th place all-time, tied with Warren Spahn.
[code]
Total 30-34 Player
221 184 Hutchison, Bill
634 160 Young, Cy
426 157 Mathewson, Christy
269 154 McGinnity, Joe
296 153 Brown, Three Finger
305 151 Hubbell, Carl
391 137 Grove, Lefty
317 135 Gibson, Bob
258 132 Walters, Bucky
369 130 Perry, Gaylord
399 129 Mullane, Tony
476 126 Alexander, Pete
391 125 Radbourn, Old Hoss
413 124 Keefe, Tim
412 121 Spahn, Warren
[strong]241 121 Luque, Dolf[/strong]
560 119 Johnson, Walter
209 119 Chesbro, Jack
158 119 Mathews, Bobby
315 118 Rixey, Eppa
292 115 Faber, Red
359 115 Maddux, Greg
322 111 Ruffing, Red
257 111 Bunning, Jim
156 109 Crowder, General
245 107 Coveleski, Stan
241 107 Brown, Kevin
212 107 Leever, Sam
312 107 Palmer, Jim
309 106 Wynn, Early
388 106 Seaver, Tom
165 106 Lee, Thornton
224 106 Lolich, Mickey
232 105 Lemon, Bob
240 105 Pennock, Herb
403 104 Galvin, Pud
361 102 Plank, Eddie
247 102 Cicotte, Eddie
276 101 Glavine, Tom
173 101 Brecheen, Harry
374 100 Niekro, Phil
243 100 Orth, Al
148 100 Ewing, Bob
293 100 Willis, Vic
So who has a similar value pattern?
Just eyeballing it, Red Faber is a pretty good match. He had 50 WS before the age of 28, and had 51 more in his career than Dolph.
Dazzy Vance is also similar, but his peak start is even later than Luque’s.
Bunning, Coveleski, General Crowder and School Master Sam look similar too. You could make a nice Bucky Walters or Walter Johnson comparison too.
By the pattern I mean, big seasons sprinkled with average seasons. Eppa Rixey for instance at that age was 22, 23, 26, 21, 26. That is not really the same thing.
Who are the players close to him on both lists combined? Guys with between 150 and 106 Win Shares ages 30 to 34, and 200 to 260 Win Shares after the age of 28.
Carl Hubbell, Bob Gibson, Bucky Walters, Tony Mullane, Tim Keefe, Dolph Luque, Eppa Rixey, Red Faber, Greg Maddux, Red Ruffing, Stan Coveleski, Early Wynn and Tom Seaver
So, there is the info. And I suppose people will read into it what they want.
test
AGE > 26
INNINGS PITCHED displayed only--not a sorting criteria
At least it is doing so above, testing, testing, testing, testing testing, testing, testing, testing, testing, testing, testing, testing
Can anybody figure out how to fix this?
Adding up the seasonal data, there are some small discrepancies with the career statistics that Figueredo reports in his appendix; the sum of the seasons shows 107 career complete games, while the appendix says 113 (4th all-time). So I may have made some transcription errors.
Luque's 106 wins is 2nd all-time (behind Dihigo with 107), and his 71 losses is 3rd.
* Excludes games won/lost by forfeit: 1912w (6-L), 1915-16 (2-W), 1919-20 (3-W), 1922-23 (12-W), 1927-28 (8-L); 1928-29 Cuba (13-L); Habana (13-W); 1937-38 (5-W).
Notes:
1913-14 - No North American players.
1914-15 - Led league in hits allowed (100). Allowed 48 runs, 100 hits, 47 SO, and 39 BB in 107 IP. (These type of pitching stats not available most years.)
1915-16 - Led league in wins (12).
1917w - Led league in batting avg (.355), games pitched (9), shutouts (2); tied for lead in doubles hit (3), complete games (6), wins (4), and losses (4). Alternative league (regular league didn't play); games played in Oriental Park; no North American players.
1918-19 - Played for an independent league in the province of Oriente
1919-20 - Led league in wins (10), tied for lead in games pitched (15). Manager – Luque would continue to manage Cuban League teams for most of the next 35 years.
1920-21 - Led league in shutouts (3).
1922-23 - Set Cuban League all-time record for most consecutive strikeouts by a pitcher (7). Led league in games pitched (23), complete games (12), wins (11), and losses (9).
1924w(S) - Special season after regular season ended early due to Santa Clara's runaway pennant.
1926-27(T) - Independent league that played for one season. Led league in complete games (13) and wins (6).
1928-29 - Led league in pct. (.818); tied for lead in wins (9). Cuba withdrew from league without finishing schedule.
1932-33 - Tied for lead in shutouts (1).
1934-35 Pitched 71 innings. Led league in ERA (1.27; one of the few seasons for which ERA is listed by Figueredo); tied for lead in wins (6).
My take on Luque’s Cuban League record is that his pre-1918 record (25-23, -4.4 WAT) suggests that he developed late as a pitcher. His 1915-16 season was probably the first one that merits MLE credit.
For the seasons when Luque's Cuban League play overlaps with his major league play, a comparison of the two records reinforces the evidence on the Alejandro Oms thread that the quality of Cuban League play was quite high, approaching the major league level of quality during the mid-to-late 1920s.
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Oh well.
I agree with Brent, btw, that the CWL
record suggests that Luque
developed late as a pitcher. I must
check my records to see if I have
given him credit in my rankings
starting in 1915-16 or no.
Dolph BTW is my Luke Easter - the guy that so much is missing and so much is there that it is easy to dream up a HOM worthy career.
The 1st Latinos in Major League Baseball
TEAM PLAYER BIRTHPLACE DEBUT
Boston Braves, Mike Gonzalez, Cuba, 1912
Boston Red Sox, Eusebio Gonzalez, Cuba, 1918
Brooklyn Dodgers, Adolfo Luque, Cuba, 1930
Chicago Cubs, Chick Pedro, Cuba, 1902
Chicago White Sox, Jose Acosta, Cuba, 1922
Cincinnati Reds, Armando Marsans, Cuba, 1911
Cleveland Indians, Minnie Minoso, Cuba, 1949
Detroit Tigers, Ozzie Virgil, Sr., Dom. Rep, 1958
N.Y. Giants, Emilio Palmero, Cuba, 1915
N.Y. Yankees, Angel Aragon, Cuba, 1914
Philadelphia A’s, Luis Castro, Columbia, 1902
Philadelphia Phillies, Chili Gomez, Mexico, 1935
Pittsburgh Pirates, Tony Ordenana, Cuba, 1943
St. Louis Browns, Oscar Estrada, Cuba, 1929
St. Louis Cardinals, Oscar Tuero, Cuba, 1918
Washington Senators, Merito Acosta, Cuba, 1913
Steve Bellan at baseball-reference
Bellan played earlier for the Haymakers (nee Union of Lansingburgh), NABBP, and for the Rose Hill Base Ball Club, Fordham College.
Esteban Bellan at Fordham University
Bellan may be the first Latino player in major league baseball or college baseball, depending on definitions.
You have listed no one in the 19th century (or FL 1913-14) and thus no one for any of the defunct clubs. I am not sure what you intend.
At baseball-reference, using SABR Biog data (maybe lacking some of that), Bellan is the only player born in Cuba with debut before 1902.
Fordham is or was a Jesuit(?) college in the Bronx. When and how commonly did wealthy Cubans send their sons to US American colleges? For al I know there may have been others active in the NABBP or in college baseball.
Yes.
Luque
Estalella
Easter
Avila
Newcombe
E. Howard
Guys whose ML career provides the illusion of being a complete story. But we know several chapters are missing from all. And of course there are others.
Bellan presumably learned the game at Fordham College in the Bronx, attended 1863-68.
38. Brent Posted: November 24, 2004 at 11:41 PM (#981749)
<i>> Unlike most cases of "extra credit" (Cravath, the WWI and II cases) here we're not talking about
> what he would have done if he had had the chance, we're talking about what he did in between those chances.
> Do we allow him to accumulate additional value in the winter? Or not?
[deleted: pro and con]
My opinion:
An analogy that seems relevant is post-season play. Like the World Series and other post-season championships, the games in the Cuban League were important and hard fought. On the one hand, it hardly seems fair to the participants not to give some credit for their accomplishments. On the other hand, giving them extra credit doesn't seems fair to those who through no fault don't have the opportunity to participate.
I'm sure some HOM voters give players credit for their post-season accomplishments and others do not. Personally, I think it's fair to give a modest "bonus" to players who do well in the post-season series - I work in units of win shares, so I assign a player 1 or 2 extra WS for a good performance in a World Series. I intend to give Luque similar small bonuses for his Cuban League play. However, since I can see both sides of this argument, I will not try to convince other voters to do likewise.
I agree.
--
Luque is
Here are three versions of Dolf Luque in the 1920s, his ten full seasons with Cincinnati, age 30.8-39.2. The first is his actual record measured by ERA+; the second levels his six-year peak at his average rate during that team; the third levels his four-year peak.
ERA+
121 133 121 - 1920
105 133 105
120 133 146 - 1922
201 133 146 - 1923
120 133 146 - 1924
156 133 146 - 1925
108 108 108
119 119 119
110 110 110
102 102 102 - 1929
Straight RA+ PythPat equivalent record strongly rewards seasons with a very high number of IP.
If I sort the single seasons I have by equivalent FWP from that, I get a huge pileup of 1890s and 19-aughts years
with names like Chesbro, McGinnity, and Coombs appearing. If I arbitrarily ignore everything from 1910 or earlier, I get:
Johnson 1913: 32-6
Johnson 1912: 32-9
Alexander 1915: 31-11
Gibson 1968: 27-7
Gooden 1985: 25-6
Johnson 1914: 29-12
Carlton 1972: 28-10
Luque 1923: 27-9
Cicotte 1917: 28-11
Faber 1921: 27-10
Johnson 1915: 27-10
Clemens 1997: 24-6
Grove 1931: 25-7
Alexander 1916: 30-13
Perry 1972: 27-11
Hubbell 1937: 26-8
Martinez 2000: 21-3
Wood 1912: 27-11
Hubbell 1933: 26-9
Alexander 1920: 28-12
Walsh 1912: 30-14
Koufax 1966: 26-10
Johnson 1918: 26-10
Guidry 1978: 24-7
Seaver 1971: 24-8
Chance 1964: 23-7 (The worse career pitcher on this list?)
The next few names after that: Grove, Newhouser, Maddux, Gomez, Grove, Koufax, Blue, Leonard, Alexander, Newhouser, Vance, Walters.
<i>Chance 1964: 23-7 (The worse career pitcher on this list?)<i>
certainly the worst batter, maybe the worst ever in the major leagues
By some measures Joe Wood may be the worst career pitcher and best career batter.
Others will disqualify him and recognize Walter Johnson as best, best.
1913 NYNJ Long Branch 22-5 .815 28 189.0 134 85
1914 IL Jersey City 2-10 .167 14 107.2 129 69 48 65 4.01
1915 IL Toronto 15-9 .625 31 225.1 190 89 74 100 2.96
1916 AA Louisville 13-8 .619 38 167.0 147 49 68 2.64
1917 AA Louisville 2-4 .333 19 79.0 71 37 21 38 2.39
1918 AA Louisville 11-2 .846 18 117.0 97 35 26 39 2.00
Dolf Luque is high within my consideration set, and Dan R mentioned that he would like to see MLE's for Luque's pre-MLB days.
I will attempt to calculate the league averages in the next posting for each league Luque played, in the hopes that this would be beneficial in an expert, ala, Chris Cobb / Dr. Chaleeko in performing proper MLE's.
Not all data is complete from the SABR minor league database that I took information from, with some pitchers appearing in less than three games including no data.
For what I have, the league R/G is around 3.71, and I might bump that higher due to the guys missing data.
I would guess the players missing are more likely to have pitched poorly, but that's just an educated guess.
On to the stats:
W L GP IP H R ER BB WHIP ERA H/9 First Last Tm
14 03 19 167 122 45 31 29 0.90 1.67 6.6 Babe Adams Kansas City
08 06 18 132 099 40 27 52 1.14 1.84 6.8 Paul Sherman Columbus
07 05 19 127 103 48 39 28 1.03 2.76 7.3 Sailor Stroud Louisville
11 09 28 148 122 55 35 53 1.18 2.13 7.4 Lefty George Columbus
11 02 18 117 097 35 26 39 1.16 2.00 7.5 Dolf Luque Louisville
15 08 25 189 159 54 39 38 1.04 1.86 7.6 Charley Hall St. Paul
13 03 18 161 141 48 35 34 1.09 1.96 7.9 Jake Northrop Indianapolis
17 07 28 207 183 77 47 48 1.12 2.04 8.0 Dickie Kerr Milwaukee
10 10 20 161 150 67 47 39 1.17 2.63 8.4 Cy Falkenberg Indianapolis
08 11 27 151 144 60 40 46 1.26 2.38 8.6 R Williams Minneapolis
A good season for Luque, but does it warrant a solid MLE season?
Luque's minor league numbers at BB REF
I thought Luque was a person who played in both the Negro Leagues and majors pre-Jackie, but I don't see any actual Negro League stats on the Seamhead site.
As far as I know, Luque never competed in the organized (post-1920) Negro Leagues, as by then he had caught on in the majors. He did play for what would have been considered a Negro team though, on at least one occasion. The Long Branch team in BB REF's minor league numbers was a Cuban (and mostly black) team that competed in an otherwise white minor league. It was also mentioned up thread that he might have played for the Cuban Stars (an independent black team) the year before, but I don't think any stats have ever surfaced of that.
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