My notes on Brown:
Played only 8 seasons. Considered 6th best pitcher in Negro league history. Against semipro teams he would usually strike out 12-15 batters a game with 0 walks.

Right now I have him ranked below Cicotte and ahead of Bond.

Is this the same Brown who Holway rates as the 5th best black league pitcher, and got 'top 7' billing in the Pitts Courier poll?

I'm not positive, but I think that's Ray Brown whom James and the Pitt Courier refer to.

The Courier was indeed referring to Dave "Barney" Brown, LH pitcher for Chicago American Giants.

Bill James was referring to Ray Brown, RH pitcher for the Homestead Grays.

Ray Brown also gets some love from Holway, McNeil and many others.

No one outside the Courier poll seesm to think Dave Brown was a superstar.

I'd still like to hear a little more on Brown (I am pretty confident with my low placements of Shively and Lyons).

How does he compare to, say, Donaldson? Both LH pitchers, relatively close in era.

Here's data and projections for Dave Brown, following the same methods used for Rube Foster and John Donaldson

Dave Brown Data

From Riley
1920 10-2
1921 11-3
1922 8-3
1923 4-7

17-12 in three Cuban seasons
7-3 in 1923/4 Cuban league

From Holway
1918 No Data
1919 No Data
1920 11-4, 2.71 TRA for Chi Am Giants; Holway all star
1921 11-3, 2.18 TRA for Chi Am Giants; Holway all star
2-2 in World Series vs. Hilldale & Bacharach Giants
1922 16-7, 3.04 TRA for Chi Am Giants; Holway all star
2-0 with 0.82 TRA in World Series vs. Bacharachs
4-3 in Cuban Play
1923 7-9, 3.86 TRA for NY Lincoln Giants
4-2 in Cuban Play
1924 22-11 (no TRA) for NY Lincoln Giants
2-4 in Cuban play
1925 No Data

i9s career projection
1474 ip, 106.7 ERA+, SN wp .532, SN w/l 92-81, 102 career win shares

My projection of Dave Brown’s career

(IP from i9s, 5% upward adjust from i9s in absence of other evidence)

Season – IP – ERA+ -- SN wp – SN W/L – WS (comments)
1918 – 52 – 109.5 -- .545 – 3.3-2.8 – 4 (Holway confirms Brown not a regular)
1919 – 62 – 107.2 -- .511 – 3.7-3.6 – 5 (Holway confirms Brown not a regular)
1920 – 287 – 110.6 -- .550 – 18.6-15.2 – 21 (Holway data fits appx. 5% boost to i9s)
1921 – 241 – 192.1 -- .787 – 22.3-5.1 – 38 (Brilliant season; i9s regresses it too much)
1922 – 254 – 129.3 -- .625 – 18.7-11.2 – 26 (If you give post-season bonuses, give one here)
1923 – 228 – 109.9 -- .547 – 14.7-12.1 – 16 (Losing record, but good TRA)
1924 – 288 – 108.1 -- .538 – 18.2-15.7 – 20 (Great w/l, but excellent run support, imo)
1925 – 62 – 91.1 -- .454 – 3.3-4.0 – 3 (career cut short)
total – 1474 – 121.1 -- .595 -- 103-70 – 133 win shares (no batting incl.)

Comments -- An excellent pitcher for five years, but he would have to have pitched much closer to his 1921 level for most of that time to have any HoM case at all. His best pitching is much better documented than Donaldson's, but Donaldson was probably the superior player.

Thanks a ton! He seems not dissimilar from a lot of pitchers in the 19th century that had a great year, a couple OK years, then flamed out. Granted he was in the 20th centry, so the comparison isn't perfect, but I think it fits. Not a HOMer.

He seems not dissimilar from a lot of pitchers in the 19th century that had a great year, a couple OK years, then flamed out.

He "flamed out" for rather different reasons than the 19th-century pitchers, also. Don't know if you know the story, but early in the 1925 season he killed a man in a bar fight (their quarrel is said to have arisen over cocaine), so he had to disappear. There's some indication that he pitched some for semipro teams later, but little is known of the rest of his life.

Yeah, I think James gives him the "OJ Simpson Award" in his book. I figured something similar was involved.

Looks a lot like Dave Stewart to me Chris - is that a reasonable comparison?

1921 Dave Brown
NNL Chicago American Giants (champions)

W-14
L-1
SV-2
TRA-2.42* (led league; NeL 5.20)
G-21
GS-14
CG-11
SHO-5*
IP-137.3
H-96
HR-2
R-37
BB-31
K-96
HP-7
SH-6
SB-14
DP-8
OOAVE-.196* (NeL .263)
OOBA-.251* (NeL .324)
OSLG-.246* (NeL .361)

In case you're wondering, Brown was not one of those two-way Negro League pitchers. In '21, he hit .176/.192/.216.

PLACEMENT OF DAVE BROWN ON HOLWAY-BASED LEADERBOARDS

WINS 29th with 67 wins

LOSSES 66th with 34 losses

DECISIONS 40th with 101

WIN PCT .663
(Minimum 50+ decisions) 16th
(Minimum 25+ decisions) 27th
(Minimum 10+ decisions) 49th

ADJ PCT OF TEAM DECISIONS 28.8%
(Minimum 50+ decisions) 5th
(Minimum 25+ decisions) 9th
(Minimum 10+ decisions) 21st

WAT 18th with 10.9

WAT/DECISION .107
(Minimum 50+ decisions) 16th
(Minimum 25+ decisions) 29th
(Minimum 10+ decisions) 52nd

PLACEMENT ON YEARLY WINS LEADERBOARDS

1920 t-5th in NNL with 11 wins.

1921 t-7th in NNL with 11 wins.

1922 t-4th in NNL with 16 wins.

1923 4th in ECL with 7 wins, t-8th in NgLs.

1924 2nd in NgLs and ECL with 22 wins.

Dave Brown's Real Stats

Hey, gang,

Please find my latest MLE for Dave Brown here. As always, when new data arrives, these will be updated. Thanks!