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Hall of Merit— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Saturday, January 09, 2021
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1. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2021 at 09:58 AM (#5998568)Ortiz wouldn't have made my 15-person ballot anyway. He'd have been about #25 on my overall ranking, between Cruz and Posada. He'd also have been the 3rd best 1B on my list behind Taylor and Olerud.
Ortiz looks to be in the 25-30 range for me. He looks like basically a worse Jim Thome - lowish peaks but long tails of all bat, no glove play. Thome has about 6 times the innings in the field as Ortiz, and a few more seasons of being good, which is why he was an easy choice and Ortiz is pretty borderline.
Postseason credit is tough - Ortiz has the strong reputation, and he was excellent in the years Boston won the WS, but he was kind of awful in all their other postseason appearance other than 2005. It works out that he basically put up his career numbers in the postseason, but his production is concentrated in a way where is was most beneficial to his teams.
Yes, elected in the 2010 election.
RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 n/e Barry Larkin 938 40 26 13 1
2 n/e Roberto Alomar 849 41 11 16 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 1
3 n/e Edgar Martinez 371 26 1 1 3 3 3 4 3 1 2 3 2
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4 5 David Cone 316 22 2 2 4 2 1 2 1 1 4 1 1 1
5 4 Phil Rizzuto 220 16 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 1 2
6 6 Gavvy Cravath 219 19 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 3 2
7 14 Hugh Duffy 208 15 1 2 1 1 2 1 4 1 1 1
8 8 Bucky Walters 200 16 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2
9 9 Luis Tiant 198 15 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 1 2
10 13 Rick Reuschel 187 13 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
McGriff really offers the only decent context of the electorate's relative opinion of Edgar vs other quality modern sluggers
Patrick W posted a link to all if you have issues navigating on he sight:
https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/discussion/2021_hall_of_merit_election_results_lofton_santana_kent/
16. Patrick W Posted: January 08, 2021 at 01:23 PM (#5998342)
HOM Election Database is updated & saved to Google Docs here:
HoM Elections - 2021
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How is there such a large difference in Rbat between Ortiz and Thome? Are OP+ and PA not what fundamentally make up Rbat?
Sheff - 10947 PA at 140 OPS+ = 561 Rbat / .0512 Rbat/PA
Thome - 10313 PA at 147 OPS+ = 587 Rbat / .0569 Rbat/PA
Ortiz - 10091 PA at 141 OPS+ = 455 Rbat / .0450 Rbat/PA
edited for clarity and to add in Sheffield
Sheff - 10947 PA at 140 OPS+ = 561 Rbat / .0512 Rbat/PA
Thome - 10313 PA at 147 OPS+ = 587 Rbat / .0569 Rbat/PA
Ortiz - 10091 PA at 141 OPS+ = 455 Rbat / .0450 Rbat/PA
I would guess it's OBP. Thome's at .402, Sheff at .393, and Ortiz at .380. All OPS is not created equal.
Thanks, guess I knew OPS+ was weighted differently, just didn't realize it had that much of an impact.
Really? Why?
I suspect much of his IBB count was from a pitcher trying to gain the platoon advantage, which, yes, can be a measureable drop in run expectancy even with the additional baserunner. But nowhere do we assess the value of anything a player does based on who's next in the order. Why just this?
A walk is worth, what, 0.3 runs? Per BB-Ref, the average Ortiz PA was worth 0.05 runs. That's a lot of value differential - around 50 runs over his career. Obviously the team giving Ortiz an IBB is concerned less with the mean and more with the variance of outcome, but had Ortiz (or Thome, or Sheffield) been a lesser hitter they might not have been concerned with the variance. An IBB is a manager decision, but just like ROE and unearned runs it's effectively a skill as some players can elicit them more than others.
None of that is to say the Rbat difference between Ortiz and Sheffield/Thome goes away if we count IBB as BB. (It doesn't.) Carry on.
Intentional walks are not average walks. They almost never come with no outs, and almost never advance other baserunners.
Using Tango's run expectancy table from 2010 to 2015, here are the values of an intentional walk in the base-out states in which Ortiz most commonly received one:
2 outs, runner on 2nd (75 IBB): +.11 runs (.319 to .429)
1 out, runner on 2nd (38 IBB): +.22 runs (.664 to .884)
1 out, runners on 2nd and 3rd (22 IBB): +.17 runs (1.376 to 1.541)
2 outs, runner on 3rd (20 IBB): +.13 runs (.353 to .478)
2 outs, runners on 2nd and 3rd (20 IBB): +.17 runs (.580 to .752)
Overall, using this run expectancy table, the average value of Ortiz's 209 IBB was .171 runs, less than 60% the value of a normal walk. That's without accounting for the worse hitter behind him, or the potential platoon advantage, or the fact that some of the higher-value IBB (say, the two he received with one out, 1_3) were likely in situations where win expectancy and run expectancy diverge (i.e. setting up a force at home in a tie game).
I don't necessarily agree with B-R's approach to intentional walks, but treating them the same as unintentional walks isn't right either.
Just curious, do non-intentional walks in the exact same base/out situations produce different outcomes?
I don't think there's a sensible argument that IBB should be ignored and ROE should be counted. They are both a product of what the opposition did based on what the hitter could have done. Rush a throw on a grounder because the hitter is fast? Let's credit some of that to the hitter. Intentionally walk the hitter because the hitter could put us down a few runs? Let's pretend it had nothing to do with the hitter, and instead let's pretend he did something else.
To be absolutely clear: I'm not making this argument to change the story on Ortiz. He's still well behind Thome and Sheffield on Rbat, even if IBB were treated as BB. Ortiz has more, but it's not going to close the gap. I'm just saying IBB, at least in the context of a middle-of-the-order hitter, is an earned outcome and should be treated as such.
That's without accounting for the worse hitter behind him,
In 2006 (Ortiz's 2nd highest total of IBB) he had Manny Ramirez - a better hitter - behind him. 2013, 2014, 2016 (high IBB years) the spot behind Otiz, typically 5th but sometimes the #4 hitter, had sOPS+ numbers higher than league average (2015 the Sox were below league average for the #4/5 spot behind Ortiz). Maybe the hitters weren't better than Ortiz, but they were good hitters in general. Napoli was a good hitter with the Sox, Hanley Ramirez's good year with the Sox.
That's a very small portion of ROE. It's based on what the hitter did - put the ball on the ground. Some types of hitters, and they don't necessarily have to be fast, are going to have more ROE than another (of course, any calculation that includes ROE should be offset by GIDP. The type of hitter who gets a lot of ROE is going to typically hit into more DP).
The speed helps, but not necessarily because of a rushed throw (what might happen), but often because of the inability to recover from a slight miscue (what did happen).
I am curious about how IBBs and BB more generally influences WPA. In trying to make sense of Sosa's outlier numbers on high-leverage versus low-leverage win probability added, I have found that the top power hitters very largely have negative "clutch" WPA values for their careers, while the top contact-oriented hitters very largely have positive "clutch" WPA values, so that "clutch" says little about how actually "clutch" a hitter might have been but much more about what type of hitter they were. I wonder if receiving IBBs or "unintentional intentional" walks in high-leverage situations is part of what lowers the high-leverage outcomes for power hitters?
Does anyone who knows the insides of how these stats are calculated have any ideas about this?
Don't forget platoon advantage.
How do Gwynn and Ichiro fare in career WPA?
Gwynn is 16th on the all-time IBB list, two spots ahead of Schmidt.
Ichiro's 28th, three places ahead of Thome.
Power hitters are certainly IBB'd more frequently on average, but there are situations where giving the great contact hitter a free pass makes just as much sense (tie game, late innings, runner on second or third). If it's a situation where a single beats you, then Ichiro is much more dangerous man at the plate than McGwire (53rd all-time, one spot behind Ernie Lombardi).
Amazing, considering that Ortiz hit for a decent average (.287), led the league in walks and homers with 54. But Manny was still a better hitter. Despite having them both, the Red Sox that year were outscored, 825-820.
In isolation, I would vote for Ortiz for HOF. But given the way the vote has been handled, I would have to vote no. I would not contribute to a process that might have him getting in while A-Rod falls short. And I would not contribute to a process that honors him before Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez, even though they hit the ballot several years in front of him.
Let in those other guys, and I'd be happy to vote for Ortiz.
OK, assuming this is a RHP passing on pitching to Ortiz (career .981 OPS vs RHP) they would instead be pitching to Ramirez (career .974 OPS vs RHP)...now with a man on 1st.
Similar stats for 2006 only - Ortiz was 1.082 vs RHP, Manny was 1.040.
Any IBB to Ortiz to bring up Manny seems pretty silly to me.
Sir, this is an Arby's. :)
Gwynn is 16th on the all-time IBB list, two spots ahead of Schmidt.
Ichiro's 28th, three places ahead of Thome.
Power hitters are certainly IBB'd more frequently on average, but there are situations where giving the great contact hitter a free pass makes just as much sense (tie game, late innings, runner on second or third). If it's a situation where a single beats you, then Ichiro is much more dangerous man at the plate than McGwire (53rd all-time, one spot behind Ernie Lombardi).
Interesting that Gwynn and Ichiro were both getting IBB'ed quite a bit.
Gwynn does very well by WPA, both in terms of the amount that his WPA exceeds his batting wins and by his "clutch" rating.Of players with over 2700 career hits, he has the highest "clutch" score at 9.8.
Ichiro has a high "clutch" score also, at 6.9, and his WPA is higher than his batting wins, although neither his batting wins nor his WPA is very impressive compared to Gwynn's.
So if their clutch score has been negatively affected by the IBBs they received, that doesn't prevent them from having high "clutch" scores. It seems more likely that IBBs aren't the cause of the lower "clutch" scores for power hitters vs. contact hitters.
My thought on this is that power hitters are also high strikeout hitters (generally). Because of this they are guys that can be pitched to. Ortiz was always susceptible to that high inside fastball for example. Easier said than done of course but against those guys if you hit your spots you can get them out. Contrast that with contact hitters, say a guy like Hideki Matsui, who maybe isn't the power threat Ortiz would be but is more likely to just dump one to left.
That's just anecdotal (barely) at best but that's always been my theory.
1. Players with a supremely weak hitter behind him (No. 8 hitters in the NL are the prototype).
2. Excellent hitters with great control of the strike zone. (You don't IBB Jim Rice because you might be able to get him to chase the slider away. You do walk Barry Bonds because you're more likely to make a mistake trying to get him to chase than he is to chase).
3. Switch hitters*. Against a great RHB or LHB, you can bring in a same-side reliever in a key situation. Switch hitters don't give you that option.
4. Vlad Guerrero. The exception to the control the strike zone rule. You walk him because he can still hurt you if you try to pitch around him.
* Who would have guessed Chili Davis was 22nd on the all-time IBB leaderboard.
The one player who really defies all of this was Mantle. By all logic, he should be a Top 10 guy, but he's all the way down in 57th.
What makes Giambi better in your view? They look pretty close to me, with Ortiz getting the slight edge.
JASON GIAMBI 50.5 BWAR, 325 Win Shares. 4 MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
4 Best WAR seasons 9.2, 7.8, 7.1, 5.9
DAVID ORTIZ 55.3 BWAR, 316 Win Shares. 1 MVP type seasons, 6 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
4 Best WAR seasons 6.4, 5.8, 5.2, 5.2
Both of them had 4 seasons with 5 or more WAR.
It seems like they have about the same career total value, while Jiambi clearly had the bigger seasons. Giambi was no slouch in the playoff either, with a 911 OPS compared to 947 for Ortiz, but with less than half of the plate appearances, 369 to 174. Just 22 World Series PAs for Giambi, with just 1 homer and 1 RBI.
I'd say the big seasons make Giambi the better player, but they seem pretty close.
Giambi has 528 RAR and 200 RAA, heavily concentrated in his five-year prime from 1999-2003.
Berkman has 542 RAR and 298 RAA.
Ortiz/Giambi is a career vs. peak argument. I prefer Ortiz.
Ortiz/Berkman is trickier. Boston Ortiz is a comparable hitter in about one full season more of playing time - I see Ortiz's Minnesota years as a wash. Berkman's ability to play an okay corner outfield vs. Ortiz's zero defensive value is an edge for Big Puma.
I put up a prelim with Sosa #8, Ortiz #9, and Berkman "first one off" at #16. I'm comfortable leaving Sosa and Ortiz where they are, but I now consider Berkman equally valuable and on-ballot.
Giambi is about 35th. I have McGriff and Olerud (as well as Easter and Taylor, who are very comparable to McGriff and Olerud respectively) ahead of him among first basemen.
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