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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Monday, March 03, 2008Election Results: Group 3 Favorites are 19th Century Studs Dahlen, White and Hines!Underrated turn-of the-last-century shortstop Bill Dahlen achieved a terrific 95% of all possible points, while outstanding 19th-century catcher/thirdbaseman Deacon White followed him closely with an almost equally impressive 94%. NA and NL star Paul Hines also impressed with 89%. Excellent fielding shortstop Jack Glasscock nabbed 75%. RK Player 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Points 1 Bill Dahlen 15 4 2 1 1 461 2 Deacon White 7 13 2 1 454 3 Paul Hines 3 14 5 1 431 4 Jack Glasscock 1 11 2 2 1 2 3 1 363 5 George Gore 3 5 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 331 6 Joe Start 1 2 1 3 3 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 299 7 Ezra Sutton 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 294 8 Heinie Groh 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 265 9 Hardy Richardson 2 2 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 1 1 244 10 Bob Caruthers 1 3 3 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 3 224 11 Charlie Bennett 1 1 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 223 12 Sherry Magee 1 1 4 4 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 216 13 Stan Hack 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 214 14 Joe Gordon 1 1 4 1 3 2 4 4 2 1 206 15 Jimmy Sheckard 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 3 1 1 1 2 1 190 16 Charlie Keller 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 4 2 183 17 Harry Stovey 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 164 18 Cupid Childs 1 1 5 3 1 1 2 4 3 1 1 158 19 Wes Ferrell 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 5 2 1 2 3 156 20 Charley Jones 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 4 4 126 21 Pete Browning 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 7 111 As always, thanks go to OCF and Ron for helping me with the tally! It was a monster pain in the butt this time. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy
Posted: March 03, 2008 at 01:42 AM | 34 comment(s)
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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 03, 2008 at 03:07 AM (#2704453)Pct of possible pts, 1st 3 group elections (which group, rank among group):
Dahlen............95.0 (III, 1st)
White..............94.0 (III, 2nd)
Blyleven......... 93.9 (I, 1st)
Raines............92.9 (I, 2nd)
Grich..............90.2 (II, 1st)
Hines.............89.2 (III, 3rd)
Santo.............88.1 (II, 2nd)
McGwire.........79.0 (I, 3rd)
DAllen............77.8 (II, 3rd)
TSimmons......75.6 (II, 4th)
Glasscock......75.2 (III, 4th)
Trammell........74.7 (I, 4th)
Gore...............68.5 (III, 5th)
Start...............61.9 (III, 6th)
ESutton..........60.9 (III, 7th)
Whitaker.........60.9 (I, 5th)
WClark...........55.3 (I, 6th)
Groh...............54.9 (III, 8th)
DarEvans........54.2 (II, 5th)
Torre...............50.8 (II, 6th)
Richardson......50.5 (III, 9th)
Caruthers........46.4 (III, 10th)
Bennett...........46.2 (III, 11th)
Magee.............44.7 (III, 12th)
Hack...............44.3 (III, 13th)
Minoso............44.2 (II, 7th)
Gordon............42.7 (III, 14th)
Freehan...........40.8 (II, 8th)
KHernandez.....40.7 (I, 7th)
DwiEvans.........39.4 (I, 8th)
Sheckard.........39.3 (III, 15th)
Keller...............37.9 (III, 16th)
BPierce............36.9 (II, 9th)
HStovey...........34.0 (III, 17th)
Stieb................33.3 (I, 9th)
JWynn.............33.1 (II, 10th)
Saberhagen......33.1 (I, 10th)
Childs..............32.7 (III, 18th)
WFerrell..........32.2 (III, 19th)
Nettles.............31.4 (II, 11th)
Boyer..............26.9 (II, 12th)
Dawson...........26.3 (I, 11th)
CJones............26.1 (III, 20th)
Browning..........23.0 (III, 21st)
Randolph.........21.5 (I, 12th)
Probably the greater practical obstacle for me is the written explanations. But it is "wild" (we said in my day) to deliberate on the rankings, Caruthers or Magee, Magee or Gordon? Indifferent defense? Can it be so indifferent that I put him below Groh, Gordon, and Caruthers? MVP? Was Gordon really an MVP?
I disagree with the consensus by ranking Sutton and Bennett 4-5 slots lower; and by ranking Stovey, certainly Gordon, probably Magee, and barely possibly Caruthers 3-5 slots higher. Plus or minus 2 is the tolerance range that does not count as disagreement.
The results include no tie and only a single one-point difference. I would have provided some breathing space for Caruthers at #10 and possibly created three other ties +/-1 by boosting Magee, Gordon, and Ferrell. I prefer to consider them ties and imagine that JTM's years-old ballot counter happened to list Bennett, Hack, and Childs first.
--
Three weeks ago I pencilled Hardy Richardson in at #15-17 and supposed the group would concur, while Gordon and Childs would contend for 2B honors in the middle of the ballot. That changed. I also pencilled Jack Glasscock in at #4 and suspected I would be his best friend. In the event, fourth is the consensus while I have bumped Joe Start ahead of him.
62 Devin McCullen
62 TomH
61 Dan R
60 ronw
60 Esteban Rivera
60 Rob Wood
60 OCF
59 Chris Cobb
59 Howie Menckel
59 Sean Gilman
58 sunnyday2
58 Joe Dimino -- median
58 andrew siegel
58 Tiboreau
55 AJM
[53: mean]
52 mulder & scully
51 jimd
50 Rick A
49 Rusty Priske
47 EricC
37 John Murphy
(26 Tom D's disallowed ballot)
25 karlmagnus
19 dan b
In part, that decisiveness shows up as eight candidates above 50%, thirteen below.
Good night.
Dahlen 2.05
White 2.36
Hines 0.99
Glasscock 2.99
Gore 2.89
Start 4.81
Sutton 4.30
Groh 4.16
Richardson 3.88
Caruthers 5.32
Bennett 3.20
Magee 4.32
Hack 5.64
Gordon 5.50
Sheckard 4.42
Keller 6.16
Stovey 4.25
Childs 3.77
Ferrell 4.02
Jones 4.37
Browning 3.94
As to Group 3, I'd say the 20C guys got dinged a bit, not a lot, but a bit.
I think the rank ordering of the 19C guys is actually very good. Maybe Childs is a tad low but just a tad.
The rank ordering of the 20C guys is another story. For some reason, I have a hard time with that. I like Heinie Groh but is he really the best? To me, he and Gordon are pretty comparable, and Gordon would clearly rate ahead of Hack. But Magee and Sheckard are pretty interchangeable and came out that way. Keller is too low for a peak/prime voter. And one cannot but wonder where Ferrell lands if Dick Thompson is still with us and weighs in.
13/14 to 10/11 full seasons equivalent games at CF
Giving Hines zero credit for 1872, its 17+ to 11+ full seasons at all positions
Gore is in the range where some say his career was "short" and a few say too short. None(?) of the latter here but the same considerations cost him a several rungs on some ladders.
--
The rank ordering of the 20C guys is another story. For some reason, I have a hard time with that.
There was a lot of disagreement about the youngsters. Keller, Hack, and Gordon lead in standard deviation. That doesn't prove any disagreement in ranking the 20th century subset. It does suggest to me that that trio may be the clearest subset. Note to Cooperstown: adjust the demarcation of old-time and modern jurisdictions.
I don't understand Gordon and Hack in the same vicinity of Magee and Sheckard, since the first two are both higher up on their respective positional lists than the other two are. Keller was greater than both of them, too.
John Murphy, I have Magee and Sheckard way above Gordon and Hack. What does positional ranking have to do with it? Are Mike Schmidt or Johnny Bench on your list of top 8 position players of all time? Where is it written that talent must have been equally distributed across positions over all of MLB history?
Over 125 years, I would say that the talent has been distributed fairly equally, Dan.
As to Schmidt and Bench, I have Mike around my top-ten, while Josh Gibson is the catcher that you should have mentioned. :-)
Touché on Gibson. But I would say that over baseball history, the best/most valuable players have been overrepresented in the outfield and middle infield, and underrepresented at corner infield and catcher, by a substantial margin.
I typed the word "around," Dan. I don't have my own personal list set up. But I can't see him far away from the top-ten at the very least.
But the top players of all-time are an irrelvant concern anyway, since none of the players from any of the groups voted on could be classified as the best at their positions. I have no doubt that the degrees of difference between all positions in player value is minimal once you get beyond the super-studs.
Taking into account the varying attrition rates for each of those positions? Sure, why not?
Groh and Hack played through WWI and WWII and put up MVP seasons in 1918 and 1945. Some will give Groh a small minus or two (quality discount or short schedule) and some will give Hack a big minus (quality discount). The evaluation of Gordon is even more precarious. When you look at a season like Gordon's 1946 in the record, with only a slight inclination to be generous, you see someone who lost three prime seasons not two. Or he lost two prime season and five points off his career hitting OPS+.
Compare Pesky and Slaughter. In 1942 and 1946, Pesky finished 3-4 in MVP voting and Slaughter finished 3-2. With a slight inclination to be generous, you see someone who lost three seasons as one of the best players in the league. For Pesky and Slaughter it may not be critical at the HOM/HOF level. Perhaps Pesky falls short even if the favorable view is common and Slaughter makes it even if that view is rare.
For Gordon it may be decisive --may have been in writer votes and committee deliberations.
I think it must be one reason why he is here 7th, there 17th in balloting this week.
I can certainly see Schmidt above Morgan and Gehrig, as I have them roughly tied, and with a ton of stretching I suppose you could get him past Lajoie, Collins, and even Hornsby as well if you're a career voter. But Speaker? No F'ing way. Over a 20-year career, Tris Speaker posted a 158 OPS+ *and* was probably the best defensive center fielder ever. Speaker's name deserves at least to be mentioned in a greatest-player-ever discussion, at least if his statistical twin Mays is always included, while Schmidt is nowhere close to that. This is before accounting for segregation, quality of play etc.
1.-10. Ruth, T. Williams, Cobb, Wagner, Mays, W. Johnson, Aaron, Speaker, C. Young, Musial and Mantle (tie)
12.-20. Hornsby, Schmidt, Lajoie, E. Collins, Alexander, Gehrig, Mathewson, DiMaggio, Grove
Morgan is #21.
This is a purely numerical system. I would make some qualitative adjustments based on a qualitative sense of what Dan calls standard deviations. I mean, I have a qualitative sense that it was harder for Joe Morgan to rack up points in my system that it was for Hornsby, Collins, Lajoie, et al. And I think I underrate Wagner.
Oh, this does not include any active players and Bonds and Clemens, among others, are not quite inactive yet by my definition.
And how on earth do you get DiMaggio that high? Over Ott, Rickey, Ripken, and Frank Robinson? With full war credit, he'd be at 2,100-2,200 games, while Ott and Frank are 5-600 above that with the same rate offense. DiMaggio was a good fielder, but not on the same planet as Speaker. (Then again, who was?)
Gibson, Ruth, Wagner, Johnson, Williams, Cobb, Young, Mays, Speaker, Collins
Musial, Alexander, Hornsby, Aaron, Joe Williams, Lajoie, Pop Lloyd, Schmidt, Mantle, Morgan
And he's 11 slots behind.
And I'm a peak voter.
I don't timeline, but there was a lot more competition for black ink and MVP votes and etc. in Aaron's time than Speaker's.
It goes without saying my list was MLB only.
Group 3a is the 1870's/1880's guys (12 of them). Group 3b is the other 9 guys (Childs and later).
23 DW PH JG GG JS ES HR BC CB HS CJ PBDW -- 20 22 22 23 23 22 22 23 22 23 23 245
PH 03 -- 22 22 20 22 23 22 23 23 23 23 226
JG 01 01 -- 14 16 17 21 21 23 21 21 22 178
GG 01 01 09 -- 14 14 16 18 22 22 21 21 159
JS 00 03 07 09 -- 14 15 14 18 19 20 21 140
ES 00 01 06 09 09 -- 13 15 16 20 20 21 130
HR 01 00 02 07 08 10 -- 13 14 17 18 19 109
BC 01 01 02 05 09 08 10 -- 09 13 17 19 094
CB 00 00 00 01 05 07 09 14 -- 14 19 18 087
HS 01 00 02 01 04 03 06 10 09 -- 13 17 066
CJ 00 00 02 02 03 03 05 06 04 10 -- 14 049
PB 00 00 01 02 02 02 04 04 05 06 09 -- 035
Example: DW (White) defeats PH (Hines) 20-3.
Note: Row total + 1 pt/ballot (23) equals election subtotal.
(If we had done a group 3a election.)
Define "close" to be [ballots/2 + 1 binomial standard deviation]
In this case that is 12-11, 13-10, which also happens to be all HTH battles less than 60%.
These are:
12-11: none
13-10: Sutton-Richardson, Richardson-Caruthers, Caruthers-Stovey, Stovey-Jones
The ! point indicates a "backwards" result, where the HTH victory goes against the cumulative standings. There is one of those, again with a catcher (Bennett this time). In this case, it's not that close either, Bennett over Caruthers 14-9.
There is only one non-adjacent (with respect to the final standings) matchup and it's Caruthers-Stovey.
23 BD HG SM SH JG JS CK CC WFBD -- 23 23 22 22 23 22 23 23 181
HG 00 -- 14 12 16 17 16 16 19 110
SM 00 09 -- 12 12 13 14 17 15 092
SH 01 11 11 -- 11 11 13 15 11 084
JG 01 07 11 12 -- 10 15 16 11 083
JS 00 06 10 12 13 -- 12 13 12 078
CK 01 07 09 10 08 11 -- 11 13 070
CC 00 07 06 08 07 10 12 -- 13 063
WF 00 04 08 12 12 11 10 10 -- 067
Example: BD (Dahlen) defeats HG (Groh) 23-0.
Note: Row total + 1 pt/ballot (23) equals election subtotal.
(If we had done a group 3b election.)
Define "close" to be [ballots/2 + 1 binomial standard deviation]
In this case that is 12-11, 13-10, which also happens to be all HTH battles less than 60%.
These are:
12-11: Groh-Hack, Magee-Hack, Magee-Gordon, Gordon-Hack!, Sheckard-Hack!,
Ferrell-Hack!, Sheckard-Keller, Sheckard-Ferrell, Childs-Keller!
13-10: Magee-Sheckard, Hack-Keller, Sheckard-Gordon!, Ferrell-Gordon!,
Sheckard-Childs, Keller-Ferrell, Childs-Ferrell
The ! point indicates a "backwards" result, where the HTH victory goes against the cumulative standings. There are six of those.
There are many non-adjacent (with respect to the final standings) matchups.
The bottom 7 come fairly close to a complete clique, Magee being a bit above, and Childs a bit below. Sheckard is close to all of the other six (Magee, Hack, Gordon, Keller, Childs, Ferrell). Basically, after Dahlen and Groh, it's nearly a toss-up with no clear pecking order.
Ferrell scores better than Childs within this group, but Childs does better in the comparisons with the guys from group 3a, overtaking him in the overall standings.
I'll enter them tomorrow.
S.Hack. -- 11 13 11 = 35
Gordon 12 -- 15 11 = 38
Keller.. 10 08 -- 13 = 31
Ferrell. 12 12 10 -- = 34
This provides a sharper focus on the reversals for three of them appear here. The other three involve these players with Sheckard and Childs. There are none within the complementary subset, 1890s-1910s or Sheckard and leaguemates.
Note that these four players seem to be in a four-way tie except for the Gordon-Keller preference which isn't even almost close.
23 BD HG SM SH JG JS CK CC WFDW 08 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 186 245 White
PH 03 22 22 23 22 22 22 23 23 182 226 Hines
JG 00 20 18 19 19 21 20 22 23 162 178 Glasscock
GG 01 14 20 17 18 19 16 22 22 149 159 Gore
JS 02 13 20 13 16 18 17 20 17 136 140 Start
ES 00 15 20 16 16 18 18 18 20 141 130 Sutton
HR 01 09 13 13 13 14 14 17 18 112 109 Richardson
BC 01 08 12 12 14 14 14 16 16 107 094 Caruthers
CB 00 10 12 12 13 18 14 17 17 113 087 Bennett
HS 01 06 05 08 09 07 13 12 14 075 066 Stovey
CJ 01 03 05 07 07 08 07 07 09 054 049 Jones
PB 01 02 06 07 07 06 09 07 08 053 035 Browning
Example: DW (White) got 8 votes over BD (Dahlen) out of 23
Or if you prefer:
23 DW PH JG GG JS ES HR BC CB HS CJ PBBD 15 20 23 22 21 23 22 22 23 22 22 22 257 181 Dahlen
HG 01 01 03 09 10 08 14 15 13 17 20 21 132 110 Groh
SM 01 01 05 03 03 03 10 11 11 18 18 17 101 092 Magee
SH 01 00 04 06 10 07 10 11 11 15 16 16 107 084 Hack
JG 01 01 04 05 07 07 10 09 10 14 16 16 100 083 Gordon
JS 01 01 02 04 05 05 09 09 05 16 15 17 089 078 Sheckard
CK 01 01 03 07 06 05 09 09 09 10 16 14 090 070 Keller
CC 00 00 01 01 03 05 06 07 06 11 16 16 072 063 Childs
WF 00 00 00 01 06 03 05 07 06 09 14 15 066 067 Ferrell
Example: BD (Dahlen) got 15 votes over DW (White) out of 23
The above two tables are equivalent but are from the opposite perspective.
Note: Row total + 1 pt/ballot (23) equals election subtotal.
Here, row total for a candidate means total from his subgroup plus total from intergroup
Define "close" to be [ballots/2 + 1 binomial standard deviation]
In this case that is 12-11, 13-10, which also happens to be all HTH battles less than 60%.
These are:
12-11: Caruthers-Magee, Caruthers-Gordon, Bennett-Magee, Bennett-Hack, Stovey-Childs
13-10: Start-Groh, Start-Hack, Groh-Bennett, Richardson-Magee,
Richardson-Hack, Richardson-Gordon, Bennett-Gordon, Stovey-Keller!
The ! point indicates a "backwards" result, where the HTH victory goes against the cumulative standings. There is one of those; Keller has a decent point total lead over Stovey (19) despite losing HTH.
It would appear that Richardson-Caruthers-Bennett are not far above the big clique mentioned above. Hack is "close" to 6 of the 7 candidates directly above him, as well as Keller behind him, and is upset by three of those behind him (Gordon, Sheckard, Ferrell).
The ordering of Group 3 appears to be not as well defined when compared to the other groups. This appears to be mostly due to the internal (lack of) ordering within Group 3b.
Player . 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 PointsDahlen 15 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 461
White . 7 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 454
Hines . 0 3 14 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 431
Glsscock 0 0 1 11 2 2 0 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 363
Gore . . 0 0 0 3 5 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 331
Start . 0 1 2 0 1 3 3 5 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 299
Sutton . 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 294
Groh . . 0 0 0 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 2 3 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 265
Rchrdson 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 2 0 1 2 3 2 3 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 244
Carthrs 1 0 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 3 2 1 2 3 0 0 224
Bennet . 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 223
Magee . 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 4 1 0 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 0 0 216
Hack . . 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 3 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 3 2 3 0 214
Gordon . 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 4 2 0 1 206
Sheckard 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 4 0 3 1 1 1 2 1 190
Keller . 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 1 3 4 2 183
Stovey . 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 0 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 164
Childs . 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 3 1 1 0 2 4 3 1 1 158
Ferrell 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 5 2 1 0 2 3 156
Jones . 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 3 4 4 126
Browning 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 7 111
Here Harry Stovey ranks 17, Charley Jones 20. The later Ranking of Left Fielders shows Jones at rank 19 ahead of Joe Medwick, Stovey, and Ralph Kiner. A substantial minority of voters put Jones in the middle of the leftfielders and only a couple put Stovey there.
Here Ezra Sutton ranks 7, Heinie Groh 8. The later Ranking of Third Basemen shows Groh leading a four-pack at rank 10, ahead of Jimmy Collins, Sutton, and Brooks Robinson.
The very strong showing by Jack Glasscock, a decisive fourth, is difficult to reconcile with all the rankings by fielding position. It may be plausible to rank 18 or 19 shortstops, down to Glasscock or Ward, with the top 11 or 12 players at first, second, or third. But that does not seem to be a common judgment here, judging by this earlier series. For example, the ranking for HOM members still under BBWAA jurisdiction shows 2B #14 Lou Whitaker reasonably close to SS #15 Alan Trammell. Yet 2B #15 Hardy Richardson (or #16 Joe Gordon) is not in the same infield with SS #18 Glasscock in this pre-1943 ranking.
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