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Hall of Merit— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Thursday, November 04, 2010
John Olerud
We didn’t create a thread for John Olerud last year either. Sorry about that John . . .
John Olerud on baseball-reference.com.
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1. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: November 04, 2010 at 03:48 PM (#3683773)two issues
1: he put up 3.1 WAR over 3 seasons(ages 34-36)- if he'd put up 10.0 over his age 33-37 seasons he would have cleared the HOM's magical 60.0 line
2: from 24-25 he put up 11.3, from 29-30 he put up 13.3- had he put up 12.0 over ages 26-27 (instead of 3.1) he would have sailed over the HOM's magical 60.0 line.
Clear example of someone with HOF/HOM "talent" who couldn't quite get all the pieces to add up IMHO
Pull out one of 1995 or 1996 and replace with another year like 1993 or 1998 and he's in I think... didn't happen though.
Apparently, a big part of it is defense:
¹ i.e., if Olerud had had 500 fewer walks and 325 more singles in 325 more at-bats.
I don't know about obvious, but I think he's a much stronger candidate than the consensus seems to, either in HoF or HoM voting. I've just started thinking about a ballot for next year, but at first glance I could see Olerud near the top.
I'm assuming that a lot of people might be dismissing Olerud because he played in an era that had many other great 1B/bats. But I think it's interesting if you compare with the other glut 1B/bat era, the 20s and early 30s:
Gehrig : Bagwell
Foxx: Thomas
Greenberg : McGwire
Leonard : Palmeiro
Suttles : Martinez
Terry & Sisler : Clark & Olerud
I wasn't sure how to comp the last two. On the one hand Terry and Clark have almost identical wRC+s, although Clark has 1,000 more PAs. On the other hand, Terry & Olerud's fielding was much better than Sisler and Clark's. And of course it also depends on how you rank Clark vs. Olerud--I think Olerud is better, but Clark sailed in the HOM voting. Regardless, I think the above shows that Olerud fits in nicely and that the precedent is set that there aren't too many 1B from his era in. Now ultimately, you may think there are too many 1B in the HOM or there isn't enough space on your ballot, but for those who championed Terry, Sisler, or Clark, you should really consider Olerud.
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