Figuring out what NeL years to credit Doby will be the key for his candidacy, IMO.

Looks a lot like Averill without any NeL credit so he is probably just ahead. Will be top 10 for me or roughly where Averill was before his election.

Boy he certainly got old quickly in 1959. Was there an injury involved there?

Maybe Tito Francona stole his reflexes or something.

These are rough-drafts of the MLEs for Larry Doby. I've posted them elsewhere (don't remember where now), and one of the problems with them was that the Newark papers didn't do a hot job of covering the Eagles' games, which meant that there was a lot of underreporting.

So these numbers are based solely on what's available in the Clark/Lester book, with walks information extrapolated from Doby's career average, and fielding extrapolated from his WS average.

To pre-empt Karlmagnus... ; )

I agree that it might not be wise to think that he would play from age 17 on, but I thought it best to show what Doby's emergent period looked like. He certainly looks ready by age 20, latest 21. If he starts at age 20, that would add something on the order of 60-65 WS to his career total, bringing him near 335. If you, like me, adjust to 162, it takes him up to 350.

YEAR LG  AGE PO  AVG  OBP  SLG   G  PA  AB   H  TB BB  ops+ sfws
1942 NL17  CF .293 .395 .348  63 260 223  65  78 37118   7.9
1943 NL18  CF .254 .343 .318  91 366 322  82 103 44 92   8.0
1944 NL19  CF .287 .387 .403  83 343 295  85 119 48123  12.2
1945 NL20  CF .304 .409 .482  99 384 326  99 157 58147  18.3
1946 NL21  CF .315 .423 .519  96 404 340 107 176 64166  21.5
1947 NL22  CF .342 .457 .608 109 383 316 108 192 67194  27.0

Chris C., is this about where you see Doby too?

He certainly looks ready by age 20, latest 21.

Boy he certainly got old quickly in 1959.

How confident are we that his official date of birth is accurate?

What good is a live preview if you don't check it to make sure your formatting looks right?

So I'm reposting in a more legible fashion. You know, I think a 123 OPS at ag 19 might also qualify him, but that's probably his promotion year in a farm-system setting.

YEAR LG  AGE PO  AVG  OBP  SLG   G  PA  AB   H  TB BB  ops+ sfws
----------------------------------------------------------------
1942 NL  17  CF .293 .395 .348  63 260 223  65  78 37  118   7.9
1943 NL  18  CF .254 .343 .318  91 366 322  82 103 44   92   8.0
1944 NL  19  CF .287 .387 .403  83 343 295  85 119 48  123  12.2
1945 NL  20  CF .304 .409 .482  99 384 326  99 157 58  147  18.3
1946 NL  21  CF .315 .423 .519  96 404 340 107 176 64  166  21.5

Thanks Doc!

Any idea how why the playing time is so low? I know its probably part of the translation, but is there a reason he only projects to 100 games played?

How confident are we that his official date of birth is accurate?

I'm not.

I found a Lawrence Doby in the 1930 Census who was a "Negro," lived in Camden, SC (his birthplace), lived with his grandfather (Doby's father died when he was eight), and was ten years old (which would mean that he was really born in 1919). I'm 100% certain that this is the right guy.

I love the Internet! :-)

That would explain his sudden drop-off in 1959

Dr. Chaleeko and John, that combination of information makes Doby more or less a slam-dunk; you HAVE to give him credit for '45 and '46, probably for say half of '44 (when he was really 23)and also a big chunk for '47 (which you may have done, Dr. C, but there's an irritating bar above it if you have.) That removes strictures on short career, and pushes up his OPS+ towards 140, the combination of which puts him well onto my ballot, above the Kleins and Medwicks.

BTW, if anyone would like a copy of the census, please let me know.

It explains his sudden drop-off perfectly since he would have been 40 in 1959, earning 1 WS.

It explains his playing at a high level in those early years that appear to be in his teens.

And it makes his early career probably come back into play.

David, I don't recollect which thread it's in, but Gadfly and Gary A (IIRC, might have been KJOK) went over the Newark under-reporting thing. Does anyone remember what thread it was? If someone can remember which thread it was, we can go back and see how much playing time might be appropriate.

I forgot that the MLEs include 2 years of WW2 credit done in my usual way (1944 and 1945).

Well, if a tough guy to please like karlmagnus is on board :-D, then Doby looks like he will be a definite first-year inductee!

Karl,

I don't know where the annoying bar comes from, it seems to be appearing on the wrong side of the table! Doby's 1946 and 1947 seasons (ages 27-28) are great: 166 and 194 OPS+. The playing time issues need to be resolved at this point, but for now both are 20+ WS seasons, though neither is over 110 games.

Gotta figure out which thread it was....

KJOK,

I was just looking at the Irvin thread, where you noted that Doby was at a Naval Training Station in some part of the 1943 season. Do you know how much of that season he might have missed in Naval training?

I haven't been able to locate the specific genesis for this, but there is a note (posted by me) in the Irvin thread that alludes to something discussed elsewhere about how the Newark team was underreported. Once, I hear from KJOK on the 1943 thing (which could explain quite a lot), I'll recalculate and maybe add some games onto Doby's totals to better reflect reality.

And just for good measure...well, maybe everybody knows how good Larry Doby was during his ML years. I mean, he doesn't really blow you away with his raw numbers, but...I was shocked at the outcome of my "Moneyball" study.

I found 20 players who are among the top 100 in 2 of the following 3 categories--OBA, OPS and OPS+. I then ranked them 1 through 20 on 9 measures.

• OBA
• OPS
• OPS+
• AB + BB (surrogate for PAs)
• Years eligible for BA title
• Career WS
• Defensive WS
• WS Peak (average of top 5)
• OPS+ Peak (average of top 5)

They came out in the aggregate like this:

1. Pete Browning
2. Larry Doby
3. Joe Medwick
4. Earl Averill
5. Mike Tiernan!
6. Bob Johnson
7. Ralph Kiner
8. Charlie Keller
9. Hack Wilson
10. Wally Berger

Doby is only #14, 13 and 13 on OBA, OPS and OPS+ (not adj to include NeL) but #1 and 3 on the two longevity measures (PAs and years, adj to include some NeL seasons). He is #1 for career WS and #2 for career defensive WS (adj to include NeL). He is #7 on WS peak and #12 on OPS+ peak (not adj).

Since I have Joe Medwick at #2 among my backlog, Doby is going to be very high.

Chris C., is this about where you see Doby too?

These numbers look quite reasonable, based on what I've seen of Doby's NeL stats. Learning that Doby was three years older than his generally advertised birthdate makes his early career stats look a lot more probable.

I haven't done a formal workup on him yet, but I'm sure there won't be any more difference between your projections and mine for Doby than there were for our projections of Irvin.

Playing time is the big question, but there's clearly a problem with the Newark data in this respect.

although if Doby WAS born in 1919, we'll have to take away his New Jersey high school honors.

from his 2003 obit in an NJ paper...

"Born in South Carolina, Doby moved to Paterson with his mother in 1938 and settled in a house on 12th Avenue in a section of the 4th Ward that was predominantly Jewish. He could often be found playing sports at Newman Playground and would play stickball on the streets long into summer nights.
Doby enrolled at Eastside High School where his storied athletic career took off. He lettered in football, baseball, track, and basketball. As a halfback and defensive end, he led Eastside to a state championship in 1941."

P.S. A couple of his buddies from Paterson became members of the "Secaucus Seven" that owned the NJ Nets from around 1979-98.

I was actually looking for the years that he played high school online, Howie, but I couldn't find it.

Two things:

1) The census record is wrong (which is possible)

or

2) He was 22 when he graduated HS (not very probable)

That leaves us with chopping off most of his NeL career again.

The census record does indicate that his father was already dead as of 1930, while the usual story is that his father died when he was eight (which would have happened after 1931). Confusing.

not-Grandma, 21 when he graduated high school, commoner then than now I think. Given he was African-American, and the Depression, and he was fatherless, by no means impossible. He may however have had to lie about his age to get into the appropriate grade in high school, rather than for baseball career reasons.

The career stats fit much better with 1919 than with 1923, and the life pattern doesn't make it impossible.

Dr. C - would you mind posting (or re-posting, if they appear on another thread) Doby's actual NeL statistics?

Thanks.

1) The census record is wrong (which is possible)

As an amateur genealogist, I'll comment on this possibility. I haven't seen Doby's 1930 census record, but believe based on John's detective work that he found the real thing. However, a reported age for a child back in those days could be off by a year or two. The clincher, of course, would be if Doby showed up in the 1920 census. My cursory look failed to turn him up. Nevertheless, based solely on the 1930 record I would bet that his birthdate was closer to 1919 than 1923.

I don't know how Doby's father died, but he may have been in a hospital or sanitarium in 1930 and thus not counted with Larry.

Just curious, can this Census thing shed any light on Minnie Minoso?

And, oh yeah, great find John!

As an amateur genealogist myself, graduating HS after age 20 was indeed common. Minnesota used to (maybe still does) have a rule that a student cannot play interscholastic athletics after age 20. You don't make a rule to preclude something that never happens.

The clincher, of course, would be if Doby showed up in the 1920 census. My cursory look failed to turn him up.

I couldn't find him myself in the '20 Census, but that's not an uncommon occurrence. I have been stymied on numerous occasions with my family research due to some of my ancestors failing to be accounted for.

As for Doby graduating HS in his twenties, I agree that it's possible. After I get back online in a few days, I'm going to do some more detective work.

Sure thing, Brent, happy to do it.

YEAR LG  TM  AGE PO TMG  G  AB  H  TB 2B 3B HR SB  AVG  SLG
----------------------------------------------------------
1942 NNL NWK 17  2B  49 20  92 30  39  4  1  1  2 .326 .424
1943 NNL NWK 18  2B  39 23  85 24  33  1  1  2  1 .282 .388
1946 NNL NWK 21  2B  76 43 170 58  97  8  5  7  7 .341 .571
1947 NNL NWK 22  2B  79 41 162 67 133 16  4 14    .414 .821
       
WINTER LEAGUES          
1946 PRW SJN 21  OF  56 38 152 53 104  9  3 12    .349 .684

Team games are based on the year-by-year decisions reported by Holway, not on the published standings.

Notice that Doby only plays about two-thirds of the 1943 season, possibly meaning that the Naval Training stuff was cutting into his year.

Just curious, can this Census thing shed any light on Minnie Minoso?

The best way to get a fair idea of an individual's age is to find him as a child (like John did with Doby), when errors in reported ages aren't as severe. For Minoso, we would have to have access to Cuban records, and I have no idea how they're organized, where to find them, or how accurate they would be. Minoso wouldn't show up in the US until the 1950 census, by which time any age distortion would have already taken place, and those records won't be publicly available anyway for another 15 years or so.

I couldn't find him myself in the '20 Census, but that's not an uncommon occurrence. I have been stymied on numerous occasions with my family research due to some of my ancestors failing to be accounted for.

Could you give me the details of the family that Larry Doby lived with in 1930, or the page number of the record?

I was just looking at the Irvin thread, where you noted that Doby was at a Naval Training Station in some part of the 1943 season. Do you know how much of that season he might have missed in Naval training?

It APPEARED that he was there almost all of 1943 except perhaps the winter, but I'm not certain.

Regarding the under-reporting, that was probably Gary A. as he's very knowledgeable about those types of issues.

Regarding Doby's age, I'll go double check but I think the year of graduation is not in question, for whatever that is worth...

OK, I think I found the Doby timeline...

Graduated High School in 1942.

Played with Newark in summer of 1942.

Went to Long Island University in fall of 1942.

Entered Navy in July, 1943.

Started playing with Great Lakes Naval Negro Team in November, 1943.

Still playing for Great Lakes Naval May 22nd, 1943.

Was in the Navy for a total of 3 years - back with Newark by July of 1946.

Toured with Bob Feller's all stars in October, 1946.

Played in Puerto Rico in early 1947.

Still playing for Great Lakes Naval May 22nd, 1944.

So by this timeline, Doby's relatively small number of games played in 1943 and 1946 is a consequence of his military service.

Played in Puerto Rico in early 1947.

This probably means January or February, yes? Not likely to conflict with the NeL season?

This probably means January or February, yes? Not likely to conflict with the NeL season?

Yes.

Was in the Navy for a total of 3 years - back with Newark by July of 1946.

I've now found that Doby was back with Newark as early as May, 1946.

KJOK, you rock. I'll return to the numbers and do some re-crunching!

OK, here's Doby reloaded.
-Age is adjusted to line up with the 1930 census data. Even if it's a year or two off, the career trajectory makes more sense than it did in the 1925 birthdate.
-1943 has been upped to 150 games due to Doby's leaving in midseason for the Navy. He played in a little more than half of Newark's pitching decisions, almost two-thirds (23 of 39) before leaving.
-1946 has been augmented by 31 games. Doby returned in May, so I added 1/5 of a season's worth of games.
-1944-1945: these two seasons are the war credit seasons which are created by using averages of the surrounding seasons. They have filled out a bit too due to the increase in the 1943 and 1946 playing time.

YEAR LG AGE PO  AVG  OBP  SLG   G  PA  AB  H   TB BB ops+ sfws
--------------------------------------------------------------
1942 NL 23  CF .293 .395 .348  63 260 223  65  78 37 118   7.9
1943 NL 24  CF .254 .343 .318 150 604 533 135 170 72  92  13.2
1944 NL 25  CF .284 .383 .399 113 467 402 114 160 64 120  16.1
1945 NL 26  CF .297 .400 .458 129 507 433 128 198 74 138  22.1
1946 NL 27  CF .315 .423 .519 127 535 451 142 234 84 166  28.5
1947 NL 28  CF .342 .457 .608 109 383 316 108 192 67 194  27.0

This brings Doby's combined SF and official WS total to 382.8. If you use 162 adj WS, he eases over the 400 threhold. As Darth Vader might once have said: Impressive. Most impressive.

So am I right in guessing that when Dr. Chaleeko comes up with MLE's for Doby in 1944 and 1945 he is giving us his imterpretations of war credit? The same woudl go for whole seasons in 1943 and 1946. If so can we get the partial season data (if that isnt' what is posted now) in case we want to give war credit ourselves to remain consistent with the war credit we give to MLB players?

jsch,

See post #6 for pre-war adjustment MLEs for 1943 and 1946 und #27 for Doby's NgL numbers.

Let's see if I'm clear on the issue of Doby's D.o.B:

1) Some printed information lists Doby as born in December, 1925, making him 16 when he breaks into the Negro Leagues in 1942.

2) John Murphy's genealogical research suggests Doby was born in December, 1919, making him 22 when he breaks into the Negro Leagues.

3) BPro and B-Ref list Doby as born in December, 1923, making him 18 when he breaks into the Negro Leagues in 1942. This date squares most nicely with his high-school graduation, but that isn't conclusive evidence.

My minor nitpik with the MLE's would be that Doby shouldn't be listed as CF all those years, but probably 2B. He very likely had the ability to play 2B and even SS, but the Indians were already set in those positions, so he was moved to CF....

KJOK,

I agree with you based on the available evidence. A reader who concurs could well consider the SFWS to be slightly conservative on the fielding side. The real difference is probably less than 5-10 WS. I've got him as netting a FWS every 31 games per his real-life WS; the average 2B would get one every 28 games (IIRC). So unless he was a fantastic 2B, the difference is pretty minor.

bump

And for the record, take a look at Doby's OBA, OPS and OPS+.

Doby .283/.386/.490

Up to 100 walks at his peak. OPS+ peak 166-63-56. Career 137. Only 6200 ML PAs but 4-6 years in the NeLs prior to that.

Compare with HoMer Monte Irvin.

Irvin (MLs) .293/.383/.475

This of course understates Irvin who was 30 when he first played in the MLs. But Doby was essentially an equivalent offensive player and superior on defense (WS A versus Irvin C+).

Doby is a slum-dunk for me. But then I like Ralph Kiner. OPS+ doesn't lie as far as I'm concerned.

From the ballot thread:

Daryn: The same thing is going to happen for Doby. If his name was Dolph Camilli, he wouldn't get a vote. Ask Dolph.

Murphy: I think Larry is at least a notch ot two above Camilli, IMO.

Interesting observation. With the bat they are pretty close to dead ringers. Its a bit uncanny actually.

A few differences. Doby played CF, while Camilli played 1B. Doby was held back by the color line and gets a couple of years of MLE's tacked on at the beginning. Camilli's mediocre 1934-35 would suggest that he was a legitimate late bloomer.

But its good to point out how close Doby is to the backlog glut. I do think he's above the glut, though.

Chris Cobb-

In Larry Doby's biography (Pride against Prejudice), the author (can't remember name at moment) claimed that he had procured Doby's birth certificate which listed him as being born in December 1923. During his career, the accepted year was 1924.

Accepting 1923 as the correct year, the interesting thing about Doby is that he never improved after an early peak. Bill Veeck, and many others, claimed that Doby never realized his true talent because he was so torn up by the discrimination he faced. In other words, Doby, a shy man, retreated into a shell and never worked on maximizing his skills.

I personally think Doby peaked at 23 during the first half of the 1947 season. Interestingly, Monte Irvin, a teammate, had the same opinion and stated that Doby was never the same after going to the Majors.

In my opinion, Doby had initial talent almost on par with Henry Aaron or perhaps even Willie Mays that was never realized and then prematurely ended by his back injury. Veeck also stated that, if Doby had just come up 20 years later, everything would have been different.

Interestingly, many of Veeck's comments about Doby show that Veeck felt somewhat guilty about the effects of his 'shock treatment' promotion of Doby straight to the Majors.

On the other hand, if Doby really was born in 1919, his career would certainly fit a more normal path.

Gadfly,

Thank you! It's very helpful to have additional biographical perspective on Doby's career.

Whether Doby was born in 1923 or 1919, I would agree that he did not fulfill his full potential in the major leagues. Of all the players I worked with in developing the NeL-ML conversions, Doby had one of the lowest personal ratios between NeL performance and ML performance of any player included in the study. Irvin's and Veeck's comments show that the statistics are reflecting something that Doby's knowledgeable contemporaries saw.

Even without having fulfilled his potential, Doby was one of the best players in the American League, of course.

In Larry Doby's biography (Pride against Prejudice), the author (can't remember name at moment) claimed that he had procured Doby's birth certificate which listed him as being born in December 1923. During his career, the accepted year was 1924.

Then that pretty much ends it for me, unless Doby had the connections to alter his official certificate. But that's too much speculation for me, AFAIAC.

Thanks, Gadfly!

>Even without having fulfilled his potential, Doby was one of the best players in the American League, of course.

Indeed. If we were rating players based on how fully they realized their potential, we would have to dock Mickey Mantle big time. (Best peak ever among CFers! and so little career value to show!) So if Doby realized 90% of his potential (or whatever), do we penalize him for that?

What I plan to rate him on is, as of 2002, his rating #85 all-time for OPS and #81 for OPS+. He is one of only 19 eligible players in the top 100 in two of the following three categories--OBA, OPS, OPS+. Nineteen players in as many as two of those three.

Of course, Ralph Kiner is another. I haven't seen OBA, OPS and OPS+ so little regarded as here at HoM since, well, whatever the most recent BBWAA election was. (Oh yeah, that would have been today.) I'm not generally much for rate stats, but 1 of 19, and his career was not short unless you discount his NeL record down to nothing. Doby will rank ahead of Medwick (#2 last year) on my ballot.

Reggie Smith (who played CF and RF) had the same OPS+ (and OWP) as Doby, in a longer career, and he won't be sailing into our HoM. Doby will fall between 5 and 15 on my ballot.

Reggie won't be sailing in, but he is an underrated player, no question.

He didn't have a NeL career before the MLs, however.

Tom,

How much credit are you giving Doby for his play prior to the majors? With credit for 1945-47, and adjusting his career to 162-game seasons, Doby's career is as long as Smith's in total number of games, with more big seasons than Smith. He was the better defensive player, staying in center field until very late in his career, while Smith was switched to right in mid-career. WARP shows Smith to have been significantly below average in center, about average in right. Doby's OPS+ is more OBP-heavy than Smith's, so despite their equal OPS+ scores, I think Doby was probably the better offensive player (a view corroborated by EQA). So Doby has several edges on Smith and Smith no edges on Doby, although the difference between them isn't huge.

In terms of sailing in to our HoM, I wouldn't judge Smith until we see what the competition is like when he becomes eligible. If it's similar to what it is at present, I wouldn't be shocked to see Smith elected fairly easily.

As for Doby: it's hard to argue that he isn't better than Joe Medwick. Joe Medwick is currently second-runner up, a hair's breadth behind the top returning candidate. Given how the electorate is currently evaluating Medwick, it's hard to see how we wouldn't elect Doby easily.

To alter that result, one would have to convince the bulk of the electorate to value pitchers or infielders a bit more or to make less of a competition/time-line adjustment on the early stars. Neither of those eventualities seems likely.

Actually, Chris, in order not to elect Larry Doby, all that has to happen is voters feel like he does not deserve any NeL MLE credit and that a 137 OPS+ from an important defensive position is no big deal.

That would do the trick, and that's what I'm hearing.

Joe Medwick has been in my top 3-4 forever and I have Doby ahead of him.

I'm not trying to say Reggie Smith was as good as Doby. But he was very close, and Reggie was a off-the-cuff comp as a guy who Most people wouldn't support for the HoF, simply because he is one of many good hittign decent fieldeing OFers.

By OWP, Smith is just a smidge behind Doby (.006) - similar to OWP. As Chris pointed out, you can even their career lengths out if you give Doby credit for three full yrs 1945-1947; but that might be a strecth, AND would the stats he put up have lowered his overall career rate stats? Does Reggie deserve a small league qual bonus for playing in a fully integrated league with more Hispanic-background representation? (I think so).

Doby fared poorly in limited WS. play - in 10 games, scoring one run, driving in two. Reggie played OK in his post-season career.

In the end, I also have Doby over Medwick, but then again Ducky will make the 'testing 1 2 3' back end of my ballot this week at 19 or so. Having thought through all this, it is likely we will honor Doby, as some of us who vote more on career might "only" have Doby low on our ballots, but the peak/primers will surely see him higher.

By OWP, Smith is just a smidge behind Doby (.006) - similar to OWP. As Chris pointed out, you can even their career lengths out if you give Doby credit for three full yrs 1945-1947; but that might be a strecth, AND would the stats he put up have lowered his overall career rate stats?

Except for 1945, which is a war-credit year, we have an answer to this question: the stats he put up in 1946-47 would _raise_ his overall career stats.

As I said on the ballot discussion thread, Doby was perhaps the best player in the NeL in 1946-47. That's why there shouldn't be any question about giving him credit for those seasons, and why those seasons strongly help his case.

You can see in post 4 above that Dr. Chaleeko projects Doby, without regression, at a 166 and 194 OPS+ for 1946-47.

I haven't posted my projections yet, partly because I think that the good doctor's, absent regression, are accurate, but mine with regression project Doby at 147 and 168 OPS+ for his NeL play in these two seasons. These totals are consistent with Doby's ML peak in 1950-52.

When these sesonal OPS+ values for 1946-47 are added in to Doby's career, his career OPS+ rises to 139, in 7142 career PA, by my playing-time projections (Doby missed the first 4-6 weeks of 1946 due to military service).

What I plan to rate him on is, as of 2002, his rating #85 all-time for OPS and #81 for OPS+. He is one of only 19 eligible players in the top 100 in two of the following three categories--OBA, OPS, OPS+. Nineteen players in as many as two of those three.

Of course, Ralph Kiner is another. I haven't seen OBA, OPS and OPS+ so little regarded as here at HoM since, well, whatever the most recent BBWAA election was. (Oh yeah, that would have been today.) I'm not generally much for rate stats, but 1 of 19, and his career was not short unless you discount his NeL record down to nothing. Doby will rank ahead of Medwick (#2 last year) on my ballot.

Agree with Marc on the underrating of candidates shining in OBA, OPS, OPS+. Look at Bob Johnson - Win Shares dislikes him, partly due to the fact that your team has to actually win to accumulate Win Shares. The old Philadelphia A's had issues doing that.

Look at sunnyday's list in the earlier post #16 of this thread. Indian Bob did well in the composite ranking even with Win Shares being a significant part of the equation.

I'll now bring it back to Larry Doby. His teams had an abundance of Win Shares to go around. 1948-56 he played on teams routinely winning 90-100 games. Does Win Shares treat a similar individual player season between Indian Bob and Doby the same valuewise, despite an extra 40 wins at the team level for Larry Doby and his teammates to distribute? Color me at least a little skeptical...

Win Shares works for me. We can generally tell when a particular player is get short-changed. But I think it is rare. If Doby and Indian Bob have the same year--call it 30 WS (10 team wins)--they earn the same WS.

So the Indians won 90 and Bob's White Sox won 65. That is because Doby had some damn good teammates and Bob generally did not. The team's successes and failures get spread around to the whole team. With Doby's hypothetical season, his ~24 teammates split the other 240 WS. With Bob's, his 24 teammates split 165. That gives the numbers a very large number of opportunities to fall on to the guys who deserve them or don't.

That is hypothetical of course. In reality I accept that Bob gets short-changed a bit...just like Chuck Freakin' Klein! But anyway, to throw out WS evaluation of guys like Larry Doby because of the fairly rare problem...well, I don't throw them out.

Just for fun:
(*WWII discounts, **using Chris' numbers from #53 and Doc's from #36 )

Doby 168**-66-63-56-47**-38-38**-35-30-29-29-27-25-20**-(92)
Johnson 158*-56-48-44-42-35-33-30-30-30-27-26-12*
Klein 168-58-55-49-49-36-27-27-23-22-(83)-(79)

Klein clearly better for 5 years, still a bit better for 10. Johnson tacks on pretty fair decline years. These guys are not that far apart. But as for Doby, considering his defense, he is not even from the same planet as Indian Bob.

That is hypothetical of course. In reality I accept that Bob gets short-changed a bit...just like Chuck Freakin' Klein! But anyway, to throw out WS evaluation of guys like Larry Doby because of the fairly rare problem...well, I don't throw them out.

Throwing Win Shares out is not what I'm proposing. Just that Win Shares has the potential to not work perfectly for some players. That's no different than any measure. So for me it helps to evaluate players by looking also at other pieces of information available. It can be WARP, OPS+, traditional statistics, contemporary opinion, MLEs, whatever.

Oh, and Doby is a very good player. He should be high on my ballot.

Al, yes, I agree. No silver bullets.

I meant in #55 that Klein is better than Indian Bob for 5 and 10, not better than Doby.

Do the Doby supporters see Doby as better or worse than Albert Belle? I'm just trying to get a sense if where you see him fitting historically.

For the record, I see Belle as better even with 1946 and 1947 credit for Doby.

In context, Doby is definitely better than Belle. Belle is a slightly better hitter, with a definitely better offensive peak, but he's not _much_ better in career terms: 143 to 139 OPS+, .304 to .306 EQA. Against this slight offensive advantage to Belle, Doby has more defensive value (average centerfielder vs. average left-fielder) and a longer career.

When you adjust for differences in competition and for the impact of the DH (however you/we decide to do that), maybe Belle looks better -- he certainly looks better by WARP3. (by WARP1, their EQAs are .304 (Belle) and .306 (Doby), but by WARP2 they are .318 (Belle) and .302 (Doby).

I don't use WARP3 to make competition adjustments -- I don't trust its accuracy, and I don't believe in an "all-time context" as a legitimate tool of evaluation. I make competition adjustments by seeing where a player ranks relative to his peers and pro-rating rankings by period based on the number of teams & the size of the talent pool on which baseball is drawing. So until I see how Belle ranks relative to the other stars of the 1990s, I won't have a firm opinion of whether Belle is better or worse than Doby. Looking purely at contextual value, I think Doby was more valuable than Belle, though it's possible that a proper accounting for the effect of the DH would suggest that Belle had more contextual merit than Doby.

Having said all that in answer to the question, I should add that I think carrying comparisions of any player currently eligible to players from the post-1970 era is both conceptually inappropriate to the project and potentially dangerous to it. Within the idea of the project, we shouldn't know anything about post-1965 baseball as we vote, and in truth, we know MUCH LESS about what post-1970 players should be HoMers than we do about pre-1965 players. We may think that because we have seen these players play for their whole careers, because we have ideas about which ones are really Hall-of-FAMERS and which ones are not, that we can use them as benchmarks for evaluating current candidates for the Hall of Merit.

Quite simply, we can't.

Part of the reason that the Hall of Fame is not all that good at honoring the best players is because its standards and practices have varied widely, so that there are a lot of very weak selections from the 1920s and 1930s on the one hand but very few selections from the post-1970 player pool who are not obviously all-time greats. The HoM, by establishing the number of inductees at the outset and applying a basically consistent selection procedure throughout its history, will set a much more uniform standard.

That standard was more accurate than the HOF's for pre-1900 players and higher than the HOF's for players from the 1920s and 1930s. For post-1970 players, however, we don't know how it wil compare to the HOF's, but I strongly suspect that the HoM standard will be _lower_: that we will honor more players from this era than the HOF has done. I may be wrong. But in any case, until we discover how our standard fits onto the pool of players from after 1970, we can't reliably use post-1970 players as a benchmark for evaluating pre-1965 players.

Having said all that in answer to the question, I should add that I think carrying comparisions of any player currently eligible to players from the post-1970 era is conceptually inappropriate to the project

I completely agree -- I do not take into account anything that happened after 1965 when making this weeks ballot. I was just trying to get a sense of how Doby supporters saw him -- I could have used Joe Jackson as a comp (though I think he surpasses both Doby and Belle).

I won't post my whole prelim, but I decided on 15th for Doby, which puts him behind 8 pitchers, Mackey, Bell and four whiteball hitters (Beckley, Sisler, Kiner and Medwick). Slaughter will be in the 16 to 20 range.

Marc sunnyday:
Actually, Chris, in order not to elect Larry Doby, all that has to happen is voters feel like he does not deserve any NeL MLE credit and that a 137 OPS+ from an important defensive position is no big deal.

That would do the trick, and that's what I'm hearing.

Prediction based on early contributions to a candidate's thread is a risky way to earn a living. Of course, Marc may be campaigning side-saddle rather than predicting.

Al Peterson
Agree with Marc on the underrating of candidates shining in OBA, OPS, OPS+.

Maybe so, but Doby hasn't been rated yet. Is there a "shining" example other than Ralph Kiner?

By the way, note that these three measures are exceptionally correlated. It's a little bit like rating pitchers on standard winning percentage, win rate, and complete game rate.

Daryn
Do the Doby supporters see Doby as better or worse than Albert Belle? I'm just trying to get a sense if where you see him fitting historically. For the record, I see Belle as better even with 1946 and 1947 credit for Doby.

Chris Cobb objected that in the spirit of the project we don't know anything about Albert Belle. Even stepping outside the spirit of this project, there is a big problem with the approach: Belle is not a fixed, known benchmark. Any short answer (summary rather than detailed) says as much about perception of Belle as perception of Doby. No doubt, great differences of summary opinion about Belle will one day be revealed in the dispersion of his ranking on HOM ballots, and differences on some expressed in the discussion. It's only because he is not yet on the agenda that he may be mistaken as a benchmark.

>Maybe so, but Doby hasn't been rated yet. Is there a "shining" example other than Ralph Kiner?

Well, Bob Johnson was named above by Daryn. Then Hack Wilson, Pete Browning (special case, admittedly), Wally Berger, Mike Tiernan, Al Rosen, Frank Chance, Joe Medwick, Charlie Keller, John McGraw to name a few. Of course, they're all special cases, aren't they. Then there's some weaker candidates like Ken Williams, Babe Herman, Jack Fournier, Tip O'Neill and Jeff Heath.

>By the way, note that these three measures are exceptionally correlated.

You'd think, but..

>It's a little bit like rating pitchers on standard winning percentage, win rate, and complete game rate.

Only 19 eligible players are among the top 100 of even 2 of the 3. Not sure they really do correlate when all is said and done. Especially OPS+ which cuts out a lot of players from the '30s who have the big OPS and embraces players from the '60s who don't.

but I strongly suspect that the HoM standard will be _lower_: that we will honor more players from this era than the HOF has done.

Chris, I see where you're going with this one, however, I think there's reason to believe that even electing more players, we would still have a higher standard. Without knowing for certain whom we will elect, based on our track record, we're likely to improve on the weakest choices of the post-1970 period, namely:
Fingers
Eckersley
Puckett
Smith
Perez
Brock
Sutton
Hunter

I don't mean to say that some mayn't be HOM or HOF material, but that as a collection representing the Hall's weakest 8 selections of the period, we're likely to find better players than these via our usual dilligence.

Fingers and Eckersley...that reminds me. When do we begin in earnest the "what the heck do we do with relief pitchers" conversation?

Probably right around the time Hoyt Wilhelm comes on the ballot Mark D. :-)

Off the top of my head, I think I'd support election of everyone you mention Doc, except Fingers, Perez, Hunter and maybe Puckett (he's superborderline for me). If those are the worst choices, I think we'll certainly be honor more post-1970s players than the HoF.

I also agree that we need to be careful using modern comps, even though I do it myself far too often (I call Kiner the post-war Albert Belle on the my ballot, and I call Charley Jones the 19th Century Belle as well).

What is the general consensus, was Doby born in 1919 or 1923? Did he lie about his age so he could play HS sports, as I think I heard somewhere recently? I think that definitely impacts his candidacy.

What is the general consensus, was Doby born in 1919 or 1923? Did he lie about his age so he could play HS sports, as I think I heard somewhere recently? I think that definitely impacts his candidacy.

I don't think we have good enough information to be absolutely certain.

In post 44, Gadfly reports that Doby's biographer claimed birth-certificate evidence for a 1923 birthdate.

In post 8, John Murphy provides 1930 census evidence that, if correct, points to a 1919 birthdate for Doby. There is however, no record of Doby in the 1920 census.

Both possible birthdates seem to have the support of fairly reliable documents. One is not correct, but which?? Without further documentary research into the authenticity of the birth certificate, I don't see how we could know for sure, unless the absence of Doby from the 1920 census could be demonstrated to reliably disprove the 1919 date.

That said, I don't believe that the uncertainty about Doby's age affects his candidacy all that much. Even if he was born in December, 1923, he was certainly old enough to be playing in the majors in 1946, and he was certainly good enough to be a star in the majors in that year.

The only uncertainty lies in credit before 1946, but again, regardless of his age, we can see that he was close to major-league average in 1942 and 1943. I think it's highly likely that he would have been in the majors in 1945, given that he posted a 147 OPS+ in 1946.

The information we have about his quality of play is clear enough to set a pretty firm start-date for MLE credit for Doby. That's more important than his age, because even the younger of his possible ages wouldn't have precluded his playing in the majors.

It doesn't prove anything, but I don't think it's disputed that Doby graduated from high school in 1942. To me, that makes the 1919 birthdate somewhat unlikely, but not impossible.

> Maybe so, but Doby hasn't been rated yet.
> Is there a "shining" example other than Ralph Kiner?

Well, Bob Johnson was named above by Daryn. Then Hack Wilson, Pete Browning (special case, admittedly), Wally Berger, Mike Tiernan, Al Rosen, Frank Chance, Joe Medwick, Charlie Keller, John McGraw to name a few.

I suspect that a majority thinks 6 of those 10 simply didn't play enough. That leaves Browning and Tiernan, Johnson and Medwick (only 134), organized chronologically. Anyway, I expect that the whole electorate will rank Doby highest of the dozen named here, as I would, and Marc has done on a close call iirc.

John Murphy #8:
I found a Lawrence Doby in the 1930 Census who was a "Negro," lived in Camden, SC (his birthplace), lived with his grandfather (Doby's father died when he was eight), and was ten years old (which would mean that he was really born in 1919). I'm 100% certain that this is the right guy.

I love the Internet! :-)

Is it obvious that his grandfather would know and report his age by the convention where "ten" means that he has passed tenth birthday but not his eleventh? What about subtraction: he was born in 1920 and this is 1930, thus "ten"?

If I must bet, my money is on 1923.

The SABR Negro Leagues Cmte has interviewed many Negro Leaguers who survived until recently, perhaps on audiotape. Someone outside SABR was alone interviewing many survivors a few years ago (Jim --? aspiring to do all?). Of course these efforts may have missed Doby, for poor health or some other reason. I suppose he was asked for interviews every winter, with the Hall of Fame issue alive, but few interviews would feature his whole life.

> Is there a "shining" example other than Ralph Kiner?

>>Well, Bob Johnson was named above by Daryn. Then Hack Wilson, Pete Browning (special case, admittedly), Wally Berger, Mike Tiernan, Al Rosen, Frank Chance, Joe Medwick, Charlie Keller, John McGraw to name a few.

>>>I suspect that a majority thinks 6 of those 10 simply didn't play enough.

Of course 5 in 10 don't think Kiner played long enough.

As for me, give me 10 years of an all-star and 3 years MVP candidate (Moneyball!) versus 15 years of pretty good guitar.

Is it obvious that his grandfather would know and report his age by the convention where "ten" means that he has passed tenth birthday but not his eleventh? What about subtraction: he was born in 1920 and this is 1930, thus "ten"?

That's very possible, Paul, and is a common error that will pop up now and then when perusing census records.

BTW, the one thing that I would like to check out is his baptismal record. Birth certificates have been known to be altered after the fact, but baptismal records are less likely to be doctored in that way.

As for me, give me 10 years of an all-star and 3 years MVP candidate (Moneyball!) versus 15 years of pretty good guitar.

Is that a specific reference to my no longer extant comparison of Bob Johnson to Bernie Williams? Because if it is about Kiner, he's on my ballot.

Daryn, it's a generalization, a paradigm, though yes it could apply to Kiner and Pete Browning and Charley Jones.

BPro and B-Ref list Doby as born in December, 1923

I copied Doby's DOB from BBRef onto a spreadsheet in March. The date I have listed is Dec. 13, 1920. His DOB now appears as Dec. 13, 1923 on BBRef. Did I copy it wrong, or did BBRef revise this information?

I suspect your trigger finger. It is 1923 in TB6 (1999). BBRef revision this year would probably reflect or anticipate a change in the biographical database and some of us would know about that, involving Doby.

By the way, 1924 in TB3 (1993). The Lahman database originally matched TB3.

perusing the Web, I found this - check out the pseudonym:

"Doby was born in Camden, S.C., the son of a semipro baseball player who died when Doby was 8. He moved with his family to Paterson in his teens.

In 1942, at 17, he joined the Eagles, playing under the name of Larry Walker to protect his amateur status -- and playing his first pro game at Yankee Stadium."

Can anyone confirm that? Does the real Larry Walker know about this?

I believe the answer is yes. Doby supposedly played with Newark in 1942, but I don't see any Doby in any box scores. However, a "Larry Walker of Los Angeles", described as young, joins the team in June, with it noted that his first game was at Yankee Stadium as part of a long road trip. He started out playing 3B, moved to CF, and then later was at 2B. He's also noted as a good hitter, batting 5th most of the time it appears. Larry Walker disappears after September, 1942, about the time Doby would be starting at Long Island U., I would guess.

Larry Doby MLEs

Long overdue, but things have been busy. This is probably the last set of original Negro-League MLEs that I'll be doing: future work will involve going back over earlier players and bringing their projections up to date or (I hope) redoing MLEs with better data from the HoF's research project.

Anyway, here's what I have for Larry Doby:

Year Team   EqG  PA   BB  Hits TB   BA  OBP  SA    OPS+  BWS FWS Total
1942 Newark  63  252  19  68   86  .290 .344 .369  108   No MLE credit
1943         96* 384  32  91  124  .260 .321 .351   94   No MLE credit
1944         Military Service
1945         Military Service
1946         91* 382  42 104  167  .307 .383 .490  147  17.6 2.8 20.4
1947        109* 458  55 136  243  .337 .417 .603  168  21.1 3.4 24.5
total       359 1476 148 399  620  .300 .371 .467  133

*Each of these seasons was incomplete.
1943 Doby left for military service before the end of the season. This season should be projected to about 140 games to include war credit.
1946 Doby returned from military service after the start of the season. This season should be projected to about 120 games to include war credit.
1947 Doby joined the Cleveland Indians before the end of the season. This season should not be projected, but his playing time with Cleveland should be added to it.

Chris:

The MLE's have been great. Any chance you could put them all in a spreadsheet and post it in the FILES section of the Yahoo group?

The bimonthly print SABR Bulletin includes selected material from the research committee newsletters.

From the Oral History Cmte, the new Bull says that "transcripts are now available for interviews with Harry Danning, Joe DiMaggio, Larry Doby, Hub Kittle, Jose Rafael Santiago, and Reggie Cleveland."

It also says that "recent additions to the oral histories on tape include" (Gus Zernial and Mickey Vernon among dozens).

Although the claim of having a certified birth document would seem to end the discussion, I still have doubts. Larry Doby dominated the Negro National League in 1942 after graduating from High School. This seems unlikely for an 18-year-old. There is a slight possibility that Doby was born in 1920, 21, or 22. Although its unlikely, at least now I am aware of it and can research what I thought was a dead issue.

Gadfly, does Moore's book mention the church that Doby was baptized in? That might be the place to do further research regarding Doby's birth year.

Quoting myself in #81 and #70.

[Oral History Cmte] "transcripts are now available for interviews with Harry Danning, Joe DiMaggio, Larry Doby, Hub Kittle, Jose Rafael Santiago, and Reggie Cleveland."</i>
Oral History Interviews

The SABR Negro Leagues Cmte has interviewed many Negro Leaguers who survived until recently, perhaps on audiotape.

That might be another audiotape, if it exists at all.

Thanks, Paul!

Happy Birthday to the late Larry Doby....

http://northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2JmZnYmVsN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk3MTYyOTE1

column includes some examples of teammates who treated him well - and (teaser alert!) reference to an HOM great who didn't.

Ted Williams, for one, couldn't have been more supportive, but Joe DiMaggio?

"He completely ignored me," Doby told me once. "Joe DiMaggio never talked to me, and I don't have time for people like that.

Yeah, but other players, including whites have said the same thing about Joe D.

Some flavor of the Negro Leagues in Newark in the 1940s


http://blog.nj.com/ledgerarchives/2009/02/the_africanamerican_newark_bas.html

one more, on a Congressman's efforts to preserve one of the remaining Negro League stadiums, Hinchliffe in Paterson, NJ

http://www.northjersey.com/news/passaic_morris/passaic_news/Rep_Pascrell_wants_historic_Paterson_stadium_included_in_national_park_plan_.html

Larry Doby's home field in high school, and Charleston, JGibson, etc played there....

Greetings all!

Wonderful site... a welcome anodyne to the bias and bumbling of the HoF.

Long ago, in a different life, I wrote a short paper on Larry Doby's career for a college course on persuasive writing. I'd be happy to share it with the community here, if there's the slightest interest. Which there doesn't have to be.

Cheers- Phil (progrockfan)

I'd be happy to share it with the community here, if there's the slightest interest. Which there doesn't have to be.

That's how they taught you to persuade people??

Go ahead and post a link.

That's how they taught you to persuade people??

lol... small-town college, what can I say?

http://www.adrive.com/public/e9D39q.html

Updating the stadium where Larry Doby played high school AND football in Paterson

http://www.northjersey.com/news/Patersons_Hinchliffe_Stadium_named_a_national_historic_landmark.html

"Hinchliffe Stadium, the decaying Depression-era structure that hosted two Negro Leagues teams, was named a National Historic Landmark today by U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar.....

Hinchliffe Stadium was included on the list because its one of only three remaining Negro League fields that mark a long period in professional baseball history when races were segregated."

Hinchliffe Stadium was included on the list because its one of only three remaining Negro League fields that mark a long period in professional baseball history when races were segregated.

It's great this happened, but there's no way that there are only three remaing Negro League fields. If you count single game fields there are over 100 still around....

http://www.northjersey.com/news/u-s-senate-approves-bill-to-add-paterson-s-hinchliffe-stadium-to-national-park-system-1.1152642

"U.S. Senate approves bill to add Paterson's Hinchliffe Stadium to national park system"

I happen to work just up the hill from this stadium. It's right by the "Great Falls of Paterson," an impressive waterfall in a struggling city.

The supporters and critics in the article both have a point. The stadium takes up a lot of space and it needs a LOT of work. But Larry Doby cut his teeth there, many other Negro Leagues all-time greats played there, and there is a fair debate to be had about whether the national parks system should be used to help revive a downtrodden city.

Hey, everyone,

Please see my latest MLEs for Larry Doby. I would reckon these as pretty close but as having one season (1946) of missing data that could improve Doby's standing if it comes through as a very strong season.

Doby is a case of someone who might benefit from additional consideration of his Rdp value. He was a fast runner and a lefty, and in his big league career was good at avoiding the deuce. Once/if ever BBREF brings pre-1948 Retrosheet info to bear on its calculation of Rbaser, Rdp, and ROF, Doby could gain a little more ground. There is no WW2 credit baked into these MLEs.

I'm curious as to what the MLEs tell us. Are you looking at how players did who ended up later playing MLB (obviously you'd need a lot of age adjusting, but I'm sure you've accounted for that)? Does this tell us how good the player would be if instead of playing in the 1930s NeL, he was playing in the a league as strong as the integrated AL or NL (OK, mostly NL) of the 1950s?

Or is it telling us how good the player would have been if he had been added to the 1930s AL or NL?

I think depending on how the question is answered you would get radically different answers. MLB of the 50's should be a far superior league to the 1930s (leaving aside the WW2 affected 1940s). Far superior simply because of integration. In that sense we probably need an MLE for MLB players playing before 1947 because they were also playing in inferior leagues.

Rally,

I don’t see the MLEs as what a player would have done in MLB given the talent, abilities, and performance he showed in the Negro Leagues. I think that’s not entirely knowable. Instead, I interpret the process as telling us what the player’s statistics, relative to his league, would look like when placed into an exactly contemporaneous NL or AL setting (I default to the NL unless the first team he appears with is in the AL).