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Monday, July 25, 2005

Lou Boudreau

Lou Boudreau

Eligible in 1957.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 25, 2005 at 01:43 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 25, 2005 at 02:04 PM (#1496150)
Boudreau knew there was no Crybabies in baseball.
   2. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 25, 2005 at 05:42 PM (#1496658)
I don't see much difference between Moore and Boudreau. Lou's got a few trailer seasons, Moore probably had a higher peak. I'll take Moore.
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: July 30, 2005 at 07:13 PM (#1510640)
Funny that Lou only has two posts so far.

Jeter vs Boudreau, OPS+s as a regular, amount over 100 listed:

DJ 61 27 26 25 23 16 04 01
LB 65 45 33 31 28 17 16 13 07 -1

Jeter just turned 31; Boudreau turned 31 during his 1948 MVP season of 165 OPS+.
Presumably Jeter has several years left in the 120 OPS+ range.
Of course, Boudreau's last season as a regular was 1949, so you never know.

In Jeter's favor: Boudreau's second-best season of 145 OPS+ was in a weak 1944 AL. And his 131 OPS+ barely had 400 PA in 1945.

In Boudreau's favor: Oh, yeah, fielding counts a lot if you're a SS!!

Boudreau career OPS+: 120
Jeter career OPS+: 121

So Boudreau seems a bit like a (much?) better-fielding version of Jeter, assuming a couple more good seasons from Jeter, or walloping Lou for war-time deductions.
Jeter can take it if he lasts another 5-6 good years, or puts up another year like 1999.
   4. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: August 09, 2005 at 02:03 AM (#1531392)
"Funny that Lou only has two posts so far."

A week and a half later Howie, I think it's even more hilarious that he only has 3 posts :-).

Jeter blows Boudreau away on baserunning for one. Boudreau 51 SB vs. 50 CS. Jeter 201 SB, 52 CS. That's 150 extra bases, which is a huge edge. Jeter also hits into fewer DPs, but there were more DPs in Boudreau's era, so maybe that's a wash.

I think Boudreau is a pretty good comp for Jeter, if Jeter retires after this season (in terms of ability). Jeter surely would be the manager if they allowed that sort of thing, things like that. Jeter is a much better hitter for average, especially when you consider that his league average includes DH's. He also needs some extra credit for this vs. Boudreau on OPS+ as well. As far as I know, it's generally accepted that the DH boosts offense by 5%, but I'm not sure how that translates to OPS+.
   5. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: August 09, 2005 at 02:16 AM (#1531431)
The bigger comparison for me is Boudreau vs. Sewell.

Sewell has two full seasons for career value over Boudreau.

However, he wasn't the hitter Boudreau was (career OPS+ 109, only one year over 120). He also loses defensive value, playing 1/3 of his career at 3B. Boudreau's fielding percentage was better as well, when compared with the leagues. I don't have the defensive letter grades handy, but Boudreau earned 89.3 dWS to Sewell's 89.9, in a longer career. If you like WARP, Boudreau had 144 FRAA, Sewell 102.

If you are a peak voter, you have to like Boudreau over Sewell in my opinion. As a career voter, I can't see that Sewell's extra two seasons trump Boudreau's considerable edge when on the field.
   6. Chris Cobb Posted: August 09, 2005 at 02:26 AM (#1531448)
Fielding Letter Grades:

Boudreau: A+ at shortstop, 6.49 ws/1000 in 13431 def innings

Sewell: A- at shortstop, 5.87 ws/1000 in 10794 def innings
B+ at third base, 4.61 ws/1000 in 5667 def innings

I certainly have Boudreau over Sewell.

Boudreau would have a bit of a fielding edge on Jeter, too. . .
   7. Howie Menckel Posted: August 14, 2005 at 12:56 AM (#1544440)
Any other observatoions here? Seems like a VERY important guy for us to discuss, no?
   8. sunnyday2 Posted: August 14, 2005 at 02:55 AM (#1544605)
I always thought it was significant that Boudreau and Vern Stephens were rival SSs who both played through WWII, and that it wasn't particularly obvious that Boudreau was better.

1940--Boudreau becomes a regular at age 23 (he had played 54 G in 1938 and 1939) \, leads the league in G and SS FA; .295/.370/.443/113, and finishes 5th in MVP voting. Indians second 1GB but only 2 G better than '39 in W-L. Stephens not yet a big leaguer. Advantage Lou.

1941--Boudreau .257/.355/.415/108, yet somehow manages to lead he league in 2B with 45, leads in SS FA again, and finished 17T in MVP vote. Stephens plays 3 G. Advantage Lou.

1942--Stephens becomes a regular at age 21.5 and goes .294/.341/.433/115, fields .944, the Browns jump from 6th to 3rd, and he finishes 4th in MVP vote. Boudreau .283/.379/.370/118, his 2B drop from 45 to 18, but he fields .965, best in the league again, and is 10th in MVP vote. Even.

1943--Boudreau .286/.388/.388/135/.970/Indians 3rd
Stephens .289/.357/.482/142/.943/Browns 6th
Vern is 9th, Lou 10th in MVP vote. Even.

1944--Stephens .293/.365/.462/128/.954/Browns win pennant
Boudreau .327/.406/.437/146/.978/5th
Stephens leads league in RBI, Boudreau in 2B, BA and SS FA 5th yr in a row. Vern in 3rd, Lou 6th in MVP vote. Slight advantage Lou.

1945--Boudreau plays 97 games at 133 OPS+ and .983/Indians 5th
Stephens .289/.352/.473/132/.961/Browns 3rd
Vern leads the league in HR and SS FA, and is 6th in MVP vote. Boudreau 8th despite short season. Advantage Vern.

1946--Stephens .306/7/.357/.460/.950/Browns 7th
Boudreau .293/.345/.410/118/.970/6th
Lou leads SS FA again and is 10th in MVP vote, Vern is 21st. Advantage Lou.

1947--Boudreau .307/.388/.424/.982/4th
Stephens .279/.359/.406/.70/8th
Lou leads SS FA and is 3rd in MVP vote. Advantage Lou.

1948--Boudreau has his big year at 166 OPS+/.975 FA
Stephens 29-137-.269/.350/.471/112 in 1st year in Boston
Indians edge Sox by 1 G, Lou MVP. Stephens 4th, advantage Lou

1949--Stephens leads league with 159 RBI, .290/.391/.539/135/.966
Boudreau .281/.381/.364/100/.982
Boston 1 GB, Cleveland 3rd, Vern 7th, Lou 14th in MVP vote. Advantage Vern.

1950--One more big year for Stephens 144 RBI/.110 OPS+/best FA ever at .981. Boudreau no longer a regular. Vern 25th in MVP vote, advantage Vern.

1951 and 1954--Stephens again plays 100 G with OPS+ 120 and 104. Advantage Vern (2).

Each gets the advantage twice while the other was not a regular, though for those 2 seasons apiece, Lou was better. And Lou was better 4 of the other 7. Advantage Lou.

OPS+ (100 of more games)
Boudreau 166-46-35-29-18-18-13-08-00 (only 9 years!)
Stephens 142-35-32-28-21-20-15-12-10-10-04 (11 years)

Stephens 70-some more games and 80 more hits, all of them XBH. Career OPS+ Boudreau 121 Stephens 118. Boudreau A+ fielder, Stephens B.

Win Shares
12. Boudreau 277 (my adj 269)/34-32-30/135/27.3
22. Stephens 265 (257)/34-32-27/129/25.0
I adjust both peaks down a tad. WS doesn't seem to value Stphens' Boston years ('48-49-50) highly enough, IMO

After the 1945 season, Stephens had earned a total of 476 MVP points, Boudreau 357. Lou ended up with an 8096-711 edge, however.

Boudreau is better on every measure, but it is very very close. Boudreau only played 9 seasons as a regular, but both declined hard at age 31-32. Would you vote for Vern Stephens? And how much higher on your list is Boudreau?

Right now I have Boudreau around #10 while I anticipate Stephens making a showing in the 20s somewhere.
   9. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: August 15, 2005 at 10:53 AM (#1546645)
Great job Marc.

I pretty agree, IIRC I had Boudreau around #10 myself, maybe a tad higher (without looking) . . .
   10. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: August 15, 2005 at 10:53 AM (#1546646)
Should say 'pretty much agree' . . .

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