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Hall of Merit— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Sunday, November 16, 2008
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1. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: November 16, 2008 at 10:51 PM (#3010317)Probably comes up a little short, but an interesting candidate nonetheless.
Also in 1961, Mickey Mantle hit .317/.448/.687 in the same .258/.332/.401 environment as Maris, giving him an OPB+ of 135, a SLG+ of 171, for an OPS+ of 206. He played in 153 of 162 team games, and had 646 PA. His 54 HR came at a rate of 11.96 PA/HR.
In 1994, Matt Williams hit .267/.319/.607 in a .267/.333/.418 environment, giving him an OPB+ of 96, a SLG+ of 145, for an OPS+ of 141. He played in 112 of 115 team games, and had 483 PA. His 43 HR came at a rate of 11.23 PA/HR. Linear projection to 162 team games gives him 61 HR.
Also in 1994, Barry Bonds hit .312/.426/.647 in the same .267/.333/.418 environment as Wiliams, giving him an OPB+ of 128, a SLG+ of 155, for an OPS+ of 183. He played in 112 of 115 team games, and had 474 PA. His 37 HR came at a rate of 12.81 PA/HR. Linear projection to 162 team games gives him 52 HR.
I've always seen 1994 Williams/Bonds in the context of 1961 Maris/Mantle. I did the HR rate as PA/HR because I was thinking about chances to hit 60 in a season; obviously the AB/HR rates are quite a bit different, especially for the walk machines Mantle and Bonds. By this analysis, Maris/Mantle come off somewhat better - in particular, Maris drew quite a few more walks and hence had a considerably better OBP than Williams, and Mantle had a noticeable SLG and overall advantage over Bonds, balanced against Mantle's lack of durability. Of course, there are other factors, including the relative weakness of the 1961 AL compared to the 1961 NL, and the fact that both 1961 and 1994 were peculiar years - but the 1961 AL was more peculiar.
None of this has much to do with the HoM candidacy for Williams. I haven't run him through my system yet, but < 2000 games with an OPS+ of 112 isn't a particularly promising start.
Until a few years ago my internal impression of Williams was that he was on par with Tim Wallach, maybe Tony Batista/Gaetti as hitters, maybe Larry Parrish with better D not a fan of his, didn't peruse his BBREF page etc..
Well that's why we actually tabulate the #s, he was significantly better with the bat than everyone I just named. Parrish was the closest- but Williams blows him away on the dee cide. Wallach and Williams are close on Dee, but Williams was a much better hitter.
Gaetti was significantly weaker on both sides, Gaetti just has a bizzarely long career... Batista- well he just sux
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