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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Wednesday, November 05, 2014Mock 2015 Hall of Fame Golden Era BallotRules are the same as the Hall of Fame: Vote for up to four. 75% of ballots wins election. Eligibles: Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Gil Hodges, Bob Howsam, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, Billy Pierce, Luis Tiant and Maury Wills. I’ll close the election on 11/12 at noon. Everyone is eligible to vote, not just Hall of Merit regulars. |
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1. DL from MN Posted: November 05, 2014 at 01:25 PM (#4836181)Allen, Boyer, Minoso, Tiant
I could use another counter to doublecheck votes
http://baseballhall.org/hall-of-fame/2015-golden-era-committee-ballot
Boyer
Minoso
Tiant
Allen, Minoso
Edit(had to remove Tiant to keep the limit at 4)
Ken Boyer
Jim Kaat
Minnie Minoso
Invalid ballot, won't be counted. Nevermind - edited.
What did Oliva Tiant ever do to you?
(and I'd be happy to count ballots as a doublecheck)
Would also vote for Boyer if I had room.
Minoso 68%
Tiant 58%
Boyer 48%
Allen 45%
Nobody else breaks 13%.
Hodges' managerial role puts him over the top for me
Miñoso's combination of a fine career (which was delayed by the color barrier) and pioneer role as the first black Latino in the MLB make him this ballot's best candidate
Tiant edges Pierce (who I'd probably vote for with a 5th slot) for the final spot
Allen, Boyer, Minoso, Tiant
Rank Order (all are in my PHoM and Pierce is barely out):
Allen, Minoso, Tiant, Boyer
I'm not criticizing anyone who submitted a blank ballot as it is their right to do so
Edit: counting Binkley's ballot, Miñoso is 69.7, 85.2 (w/o blank ballots), Tiant 60.6, 74.1 (w/o blanks)
Dick Allen as a batter is quite comparable to Joe DiMaggio (discounting the three years he lost in his prime to WWII), and of course no one who is sane would argue Joe doesn't belong. But Joe was a fine centerfielder, maybe a great one, and Dick Allen fielded like he had a ball and chain attached to his legs. Plus, I lived through Dick Allen's tantrums. Still, if you can show me that he wasn't as bad a fielder as the metrics show him to be, and as I remember him to be, and as many people at the time thought him to be, I might begin reconsidering his case.
In sum, Allen was at his peak, and it was nice long peak, but that's all he has. That is negated just enough by his being , a terrible fielder and an all-around Dick of mega-detrimental proportions.
Heads up, Howie: you can only vote for 4 candidates, otherwise it is an invalid ballot
Allen, Boyer, Tiant, Minoso. Billy Pierce is close to Minoso, but the limit is 4.
I have Pierce 49th, Tiant 59th, Kaat 131st on pitching, my line is in between Pierce and Tiant on that pitching stats only list. Kaat would rank higher adding hitting/fielding, Pierce and Tiant worse because they did not distinguish themselves as hitting pitchers and were both poor fielding pitchers. I cannot confidently say any of the three would get my vote, therefore they do not in this simulation.
My standard for position players, in points, is around 850. Allen is around 700 due to poor fielding, Oliva and Minoso 450, the others less.
I have a "small hall" mentality on execs. Howsam can be compared to Gillick, so there is that argument.
Howie, please resubmit your ballot with a maximum of 4 selections.
Also, as mentioned above, everyone should refrain from posting any running tallies. It can have the effect of influencing future (or potential) voters.
Finally, blank ballots are allowed as long as they properly reflect the voter's views on the candidates.
Thanks much.
Ken Boyer
Gil Hodges
Minnie Minoso
Dick Allen
Bob Howsam
Minnie Minoso
Billy Pierce
While none of these are glaring omissions, the converse is also generally true: with the possible exception of Maury Wills, none of the candidates here would look glaringly out of place within the Hall of Fame, either.
Minnie Minoso
Billy Pierce
Luis Tiant
Hall is no poorer if you voted these players in. Tiant is out of place since he's the one who didn't play for the White Sox.
Minnie Minoso - easily in
Just made it:
Billy Pierce - the 1950s are light on hall of merit/famers.
Luis Tiant - in a huge glut of 60s/70s hurlers, could deserve MLE credit?
sorry, REVISED ballot
Allen, Boyer, Minoso, Pierce
Interesting thread about managers and GMs over at the Fever, at least a stab at a good starting point for statistical rankings:
http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?49984-Managers-and-GMs-who-belong-in-the-Hall-(or-already-are)&p=2371814#post2371814
rating,, General Manager
2275.6 Barrow, Ed
1373.2 Weiss, George
1141.1 Rickey, Branch
1056.8 Schuerholz, John
997.1 Bavasi, Buzzie
879.5 Cashman, Brian
806.5 Gillick, Pat
660.2 Howsam, Bob
619.6 Dalton, Harry
590.5 Sabean, Brian
464.8 Brown, Joe
I'm going to go with:
Allen
Tiant
Kaat
Boyer
tough call with Minoso and Pierce.
Boyer, Minoso, Tiant, Allen
Minnie Minoso
Luis Tiant
Tiant
I'm going with Allen, Boyer and Minoso for my votes.
I'm glad we've been doing the MMPs through the 1950s - it's forced me to appreciate just how good Minoso was and now that we're in the late 1950s I keep seeing Boyer's name pop up year after year. These guys were really pretty good players, better than I originally thought.
Howsam and Hodges should be on a separate ballot. I agree with Moeball on that.
Allen and Kaat are tough calls, but they end up just on the other side of the line for me.
Bill James had Minoso ranked in his top-100, implying that he's easily in the top half of the hall of fame. Even if that included some homerism, tough to drop him below the thresh hold.
Minnie Minoso
Ken Boyer
Bob Howsam
Here are two players' stats which look fairly similar:
Player 1 did the following in 1819 career games played:
7811 PA, 390 HR, OPS of .960. Considered a great hitter but poor fielder (-81 defensive runs in career).
Player 2 did the following in 1749 career games played:
7315 PA, 351 HR, OPS of .912. Considered a great hitter but poor fielder (-110 defensive runs).
Player 1 looks like a bit of a better hitter, and also a bit better in the field for that matter.
Now for a little context: Player 1 has a career OPS+ of 154 (20th best all-time, which is outstanding); Player 2's OPS+ is 156 (15th best).
Furthermore, Player 1's career WAA is 33.6, an excellent total, while Player 2's WAA is 32.9, very close indeed.
Basically, these 2 players are really the same guy, right?
Player 1 has almost identical stats to Player 2 when adjusted for context. Player 1 is going to get an invitation to join the elite at Cooperstown when his career is over. In fact, even if his career ended right now and he never plays another game he will probably get elected to the HOF within his first year or two of eligibility. After all, he has 2 MVP awards and 3 batting titles to his credit, a pretty impressive resume indeed. Player 2...didn't get in, hasn't yet and probably won't for a long time, maybe never.
So Player 1 must have had a much better peak than Player 2, right? That's why he garnered so much more hardware, correct?
Let's take a look:
Player 1's best 2 seasons of WAA: 5.3 and 5.1
Player 2's best 2 seasons of WAA: 6.2 and 6.2
Hmm...Player 1 doesn't look clearly more dominant here, in fact, Player 2 does...ok, how about best 5 seasons?
Player 1's best 5 seasons of WAA: 22.9
Player 2's best 5 seasons of WAA: 24.9
Uh, I'm finding it difficult to come to the conclusion that Player 1 really was the better player at his peak, and their career values look fairly similar, too. What's going on?
Have you figured out who Player 1 is yet?
Have you figured out who Player 2 is yet?
All right, enough of the suspense...Player 1, of course, is Miguel Cabrera, someone I feel fairly confident in saying will end up being elected to the HOF fairly easily, even if his career ends right now. He already has the required resume to get in.
Player 2 is...drumroll please...Dick Allen.
Miggy is popular, Dick...wasn't. Miggy wins multiple awards, Dick didn't.
But as actual players and judged purely for what their performance on the field is/was - well, they're actually pretty close to being the same player.
Makes you think, eh?
I would, yes. To me, Pettitte is pretty much exactly the borderline HoF SP. Needs every bit of the gaudy W-L record, and big post-season resume to get it, but he gets in.
To illustrate this point, Tiant is 51st in JAWS; Pettitte is 86th. The post-19th century players above Tiant who are HOF-eligible, not PED or gambling tainted, and yet not in are: Curt Schilling (27th), Mike Mussina (28th), Wes Ferrell (39th), Rick Reuschel (45th), and Kevin Brown (46th). Between Tiant and Pettitte are: David Cone (60th), Urban Shocker (63rd), Bret Saberhagen (65th), Dave Stieb (66th), George Uhle (71st), Kevin Appier (72nd), Chuck Finley (73rd), Orel Hershiser (76th), Bucky Walters (77th), Tommy John (78th), Frank Tanana (80th), Wilbur Wood (82nd), and Wilbur Cooper (83rd).
Now, that's only one stat... as indicated by the fact that the guy right above Pettitte on the list is named Sandy Koufax. Nonetheless, I think it serves well to sketch out the outline of an argument that, although Tiant is probably about where most people would draw their "floor", Pettitte is significantly below that.
All that said, I'd be willing to vote for Pettitte if it were on a ballot like this and they did a crappy job of making the ballot, such that there weren't four better choices on there. Basically, I always figure vote for the maximum number of guys who wouldn't be jokes, and let the wisdom of crowds sort 'em out.
Santo's gone pretty quiet about Dick Allen lately though
1. Boyer missed a couple of years to the Korean War.
2. Boyer played a lot of his career in the 1960s, when offense was at very low levels. This messes with his peak and prime numbers.
3. Boyer played from 1966 until he left the Cards as a power hitter in Busch Stadium (the 1966 version), an enormous park that destroyed home run power. When he was in Sportsman's Park, that was a ballpark that favored lefty hitting, but was just about normal for righties. A general ballpark adjustment for Sportsman's hurts Boyer, because it's too steep for righties.
4. Boyer was a very good defensive 3B, but that is drowned in the peer group. His brother Clete Boyer. Brooks Robinson. Ron Santo. Tough peer group. Among 3B, he also had to compete, on offense, with Santo, Mathews, and Al Rosen. Not only a tough peer group, but something new to baseball. Boyer, too, was a power-hitting 3B, but not in the class of Mathews or Rosen, and probably not as good as Santo, although the ballpark adjustments are serious.
5. Boyer appeared in only one WS (1964), although he did play well there. But he was traded before the WS of 67-68. He played for a lot of poor teams.
Offhand, I can't think of any circumstance that favors Boyer. There are a lot that worked against him. The New Historical has him ranked #12 at 3B, and that may be low, because Bill didn't use separate righty/lefty ballpark adjustments, and may have not given full Korean War MLEs (I don't know how Bill handled those in his subjective adjustments). That was as of 2000. By now, he may have been passed by Bill's standards, but serious examination of the context might well bring him back to even #12 now. The number of hall 3B is low, but the in/out line is probably about #15-17. Boyer is well qualified.
Oh, and if you're looking at the character clause, Boyer gets a bonus. Widely known as a VERY nice guy, he, along with Stan Musial, were in spring training when Cards' owner Gussie Busch found out that the hotel did not allow black people to stay there. He got a friend to buy another hotel in the area. Ken and Stan Musial, the team's two stars, had cushy beachfront cabanas. They both gave them up and stayed in the hotel, to show solidarity with the black guys. - Brock Hanke
Boyer:
1. Hit around .300 typically, as high as .329, never won a batting title.
2. Had good power, but not power to get you noticed in a strong league loaded with guys like Mays/Aaron/Robinson/Snider/Banks/Mathews and others.
3. Always overshadowed by one superstar teammate (Stan Musial, later Gibson).
4. Overshadowed by a better player at his position who was a top-5 all-time 3B (Mathews).
5. Remarkably durable/consistent. The dude hit exactly 24 homers 4 years in a row.
He won an MVP in what was no better than his fourth-best season. He didn't deserve it, but he had the unbeatable combination of playing for a surprise pennant winning ('64 Cards, benefactors of the Phillies' collapse) and led the league in RBIs.
He got decent walks (he got exactly 70 walks 3 years in a row) but not enough to become a sabermetrics poster boy for underrated like a Dwight Evans or Norm Cash.
DL from MN: I'd be happy to send you my tally for verification purposes. You can send me an email and I will reply. My email is robertowood @ yahoo.com
And during the Tony Taylor fiasco, Tug McGraw and Larry Bowa went public about their displeasure with the way Allen was handling things.
I no longer recall anything specific about the 1969 season, but I'd be surprised if some of the veterans were not extremely displeased with Allen's actions and I know there were any number of statements from veterans saying (almost word for word) that Bob Skinner was being pretty reasonable (and that no manager would have done anything different). I have a vague recollection that Deron Johnson was a Skinner supporter, but I can't source this.
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