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Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Most Meritorious Player: 1902 Ballot

For 1902, each voter should rank their top 10 players from all leagues combined.

Balloting is scheduled to close at 4pm EDT on 4 March 2015.

Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 3 February 2015.

For detailed rules see one of our previous ballots.

DL from MN Posted: February 17, 2015 at 10:41 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: February 17, 2015 at 12:40 PM (#4899111)
Reposting the candidate eligibility part of the rules due to some issues this year

"Candidate Eligibility: Any North American professional baseball player is eligible for the Most Meritorious Player (MMP) award including players on independent teams. Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be judged in relation to the highest level major league, not relative to a minor league. A season may include playoff or World Series games but does not include spring training or exhibition games. No credit will be given for games not played due to injury, wartime service or contract holdouts"
   2. DL from MN Posted: February 18, 2015 at 11:24 AM (#4899528)
1902 Ballot

1) Rube Waddell - Western League innings separate him from Wagner and Young
2) Honus Wagner - best position player
3) Cy Young - Another great season
4) Napoleon Lajoie - credit for being barred from playing in Pennsylvania
5) Jack Taylor - demerit for cheating which caused his team to have to replay games
6) Ed Delahanty - best hitter in baseball
7) Bill Bradley - good glove
8) Tommy Leach - very good fielding numbers
9) Ginger Beaumont - three Pirates in top 10 explains why they won the pennant
10) Grant Johnson - with a complete absence of seasonal data I assumed an average season and normal aging curve

11-15) Charlie Hickman, Joe McGinnity, Lave Cross, Sam Crawford, George Davis
16-20) Fred Clarke, Noodles Hahn, Fred Tenney, Bobby Wallace, Rube Foster
   3. DL from MN Posted: February 19, 2015 at 10:13 PM (#4900613)
Chris Fluit Posted: February 03, 2015 at 05:54 PM (#4892874)
1902 Ballot

1. Jack Taylor, P, Chicago Cubs: 206 ERA+ in 333 innings in the (still) tougher league
2. Rube Waddell, P, Philadelphia Athletics: includes minor league credit
3. Cy Young, P, Boston Americans: 164 ERA+ in 384 innings
4. Ed Delahanty, LF, Washington Senators: led the junior circuit in OPS+ and Runs Created with 187 and 125
5. Honus Wagner, SS/RF/1B/LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st in NL with 162 OPS+ but time spent away from short reduces his positional value
6. Nap Lajoie, 2B, Cleveland Bronchos: 176 OPS+ with +4 fielding at 2B
7. Noodles Hahn, P, Cincinnati Reds: 169 ERA+ is 2nd best in NL
8. Vic Willis, P, Boston Braves: otherworldly 410 IP to go with a respectable 128 ERA+
9. Bill Dinneen, P, Boston Americans: 121 ERA+ isn't much but those 371 innings are pretty impressive
10. Bill Bradley, 3B, Cleveland Bronchos: one of the great defenders of all time (+9 fielding for this season) having one of his best seasons with the bat (150 OPS+)

11. Sam Crawford, RF, Cincinnati Reds
12. Ed Siever, P, Detroit Tigers
13. Ginger Beaumont, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Red Donahue, P, St. Louis Browns
15. Togie Pittinger, P, Boston Braves
   4. MrC. Posted: February 22, 2015 at 05:46 PM (#4901790)
1902 Final Ballot

Batters: Start with RAA (using custom linear weights), adjust for park, position and defense (using DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement). If applicable, any pitching WARR that a position player may have.

Pitchers: Calculate RAA using a pitchers FIP and calculate RAA using a pitcher's RA9.

Calculate RAA, using a blend of RA9 and FIP from above, adjust for quality of opposition and park. Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement). Add Hitter WARR for overall WARR. As well, a few pitchers have fielding numbers as position players which I take into account.

1. Rube Waddell 7.90 WARR Even if the minor league numbers translate only to major league average, the minor league adjustment is enough to get Waddell to the top.
2. Cy Young 8.78 WARR
3. Honus Wagner 6.80 WARR
4. Ed Delahanty 6.42 WARR
5. Noodles Hahn 6.23 WARR
6. Tommy Leach 6.07 WARR
7. Bill Bradley 6.02 WARR
8. Vic Willis 5.20 WARR
9. Jack Taylor 5.20 WARR
10. Sam Crawford 4.99 WARR

Rest of the top 20
Ginger Beaumont
Jimmy Slagle
Nap Lajoie
Eddie Plank
Charlie Hickman
Jack Powell
Bobby Wallace
Fred Clarke
Bill Dineen
Fred Tenney
   5. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 23, 2015 at 02:40 PM (#4902159)
Official 1902 MMP Ballot (includes downward adjustments for AL players):

1) Rube Waddell: Best ML player and pitcher.
2) Honus Wagner: Best NL player.
3) Cy Young
4) Noodles Hahn: Best NL pitcher.
5) Jack Taylor
6) Ginger Beaumont: Best ML center fielder.
7) Fred Clarke: Best ML left fielder.
8) Ed Delahanty: Best AL left fielder and non-pitching player.
9) Nap Lajoie: Best ML second baseman.
10) Tommy Leach: Best ML third baseman.
   6. bjhanke Posted: February 25, 2015 at 04:22 AM (#4903160)
Well, this is odd. I think this is the only year I've ever thought that there should be MORE pitchers on the list than DL does. The difference in value between the best pitchers and the best hitters is changing at this time. Before the early 1900s, most teams' best players were their ace starters, and this was more true the better the team was. However, by 1902, teams were adding pitchers to their rosters in quantity, trying to figure out how to develop a pitching rotation that doesn't blow out all the arms. This, of course, decreased the IP of the staff aces, so they are dropping in value due to lower opportunity. Looking at the teams, I think that, in 1902, the best player on a team was a pitcher on 9 teams; a position player on the other 7. Rube Waddell was the best player on his team, and that's without any minor league credit. - Brock Hanke
   7. DL from MN Posted: March 02, 2015 at 08:26 AM (#4905715)
Need some more ballots this week
   8. EricC Posted: March 03, 2015 at 10:39 AM (#4906436)
1902 MMP ballot

1. George Waddell. Partial minor league credit.
2. Cy Young
3. Jack Taylor
4. Ed Delahanty
5. Honus Wagner
6. Noodles Hahn
7. Nap Lajoie. Credit for injunction.
8. Andrew Foster. Speculative vote; within range of plausibility.
9. Ginger Beaumont
10. Charlie Hickman
   9. bjhanke Posted: March 03, 2015 at 08:53 PM (#4907059)
DL - A couple of comments and a question. I will have my ballot done tonight, but I don't know if I will be able to post it up until tomorrow (Wednesday). I have had the same problem as several others have had, which is that I'm often not able to make comments, although I'm logged in and can read anything. Well, this turns out, at least for me, to be a matter of timing. I can't comment in the middle of the night. I could not comment at 3am, but I can comment now (7pm). I will bet that this is an issue with computer backup, because I did a lot of computer backups in my working career, and they all had the same problem: To back up a database, you have to lock the entire database until it is all backed up; you can't have people making changes in the middle of backup. This is why computer backups are run at night in the first place, minimal disruption of work flow. Well, these threads of comments are, to a computer, a large database. It takes time to back it all up, and my bet is that, during the entire backup, no one can comment on anything. Just a FYI for the other who are having this problem. Check the timing. The reason that this doesn't happen on sites with more money in back of them is that those servers probably have a system which allows input any time, and just puts input during backup into a holding database until the real one is unlocked. There's not much Jim Furtado can do about that, unless he wins a large lottery or something.

Second, while researching Togie Pittinger, I found out that the Win Shares you put into this year's Discussion Thread header are not identical to the ones in the book Win Shares. This does make sense. The book WS is 15 years old; I'm not surprised that you use something that's been updated. However, I would really like to know what source you are using, so that I can look up the source of your header numbers. Among other things, this year's header did not include Jessse Tannehill nor Deacon Phillippe, both of whom should be on there, according to the WS they accumulated according to the book Win Shares. My comment, when I get it posted, will have a comparison of Pittinger to Jack Chesbro, Tannehill and Phillippe. I'll just have to assume that the Win Shares numbers for them in WS are the same as the ones in your current source. Oh, and a note for anyone who still used the book, because it has everyone: The number for Joe McGinnity in the section that has every player, listed by year and team, gives Joe only 12 Win Shares. The Giants were horrible in 1902, but that's a typo. Joe had much closer to 24 WS than 12. In the later section of the book, which lists selected players by decade, Joe is credited with 23 WS. The Discussion header has him at 24.3.

My question is this: When I go to sleep "tonight", I probably won't wake up until after the Wednesday deadline to post ballots (I normally wake up about 6pm). Is there an email address I can send my ballot to if I can't post it tonight? Or can you hold ending the balloting until Thursday morning, when I will have had a time where I can actually make a comment? From now on, I promise to get my work done a day earlier than this time, so I can be sure to be able to post it up. Thanks. - Brock Hanke
   10. bjhanke Posted: March 03, 2015 at 08:54 PM (#4907060)
Duplicate comment.
   11. bjhanke Posted: March 03, 2015 at 08:54 PM (#4907061)
Duplicate comment.
   12. bjhanke Posted: March 03, 2015 at 08:54 PM (#4907062)
Duplicate comment; submitting the comment hung for a scary while.
   13. bjhanke Posted: March 03, 2015 at 08:57 PM (#4907064)
I'm having problems editing out the three extra comments that got saved. If you see four long comments by me, ignore all but one; they are identical.
   14. bjhanke Posted: March 03, 2015 at 08:59 PM (#4907067)
Apparently, you have to make a new comment in order to actually save an earlier comment that you just edited.
   15. DL from MN Posted: March 03, 2015 at 09:08 PM (#4907075)
I use Seamheads to look up Win Shares. I'll extend the balloting at least until Thursday. We only have 5 ballots.
   16. bjhanke Posted: March 04, 2015 at 12:51 AM (#4907175)
DL - Thanks! I have figured out a couple of things about BTW here that I will add to my ballot in an essay, so hopefully I won't be doing any more 4 duplicate posts ever again. As for now, here's the ballot. I also need to write an essay, which I think is important about all of the period 1901-1910, but, in order to escape posting problems, I'm just going to list my ballot now, because I can post now. The period essay starts out with why I have Ginger Beaumont and Tommy Leach 9th and 10th, instead of Togie Pittinger and Bill Dinneen. It goes a long way beyond that, but that's where it starts. Anyway, the ballot, official for tabulation:

1. Rube Wadell (my usual first pass, involving Win Share and WAR ordinals, actually has Waddell tied with Young for 1st, BEFORE any minor league credit)
2. Cy Young
3. Jack Taylor
4. Honus Wagner
5. Vic Willis
6. Noodles Hahn
7. Ed Delahanty
8. Jack Powell
9. Ginger Beaumont
10. Tommy Leach
   17. DL from MN Posted: March 04, 2015 at 09:30 AM (#4907248)
Voted last election, haven't voted yet

Michael Binkley
   18. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: March 04, 2015 at 09:53 AM (#4907256)
1902 MMP final ballot:

I use a combination of WAR systems to get an average WAR for each player. I use that number to get a Dan R-style peak-rate salary estimation. I divide that salary by $1 million and add 3 times the average WAR to that dividend. I use a 20% bonus for catchers and do not credit postseason except as a tiebreaker (obviously not applicable this year).

1. Rube Waddell (66.08) - if not for Waddell's minor league credit, Denton True would've eked out the top spot
2. Cy Young (50.78)
3. Honus Wagner (46.04) - NL MMP
4. Ed Delahanty (43.73)
5. Jack Taylor (40.54) - NL MMPitcher
6. Bill Bradley (38.66)
7. Noodles Hahn (37.86)
8. Nap Lajoie (36.17)
9. Vic Willis (35.16)
10. Joe McGinnity (34.79)
   19. DL from MN Posted: March 04, 2015 at 04:38 PM (#4907578)
I'll extend to Friday at noon. Does anyone need more time than that?
   20. neilsen Posted: March 05, 2015 at 05:14 PM (#4908256)
My ballot for 1902 is the same as my prelim. I poked around a bit for the reason why Wagner shifted positions in 1902 and found this on his SABR bio -

"Wagner had primarily played shortstop in 1901, especially after the Pirates’ longtime shortstop Bones Ely jumped to the American League. Wid Conroy took over the position for the 1902 season, moving Wagner to right field, but he turned out to be a spy for the American League and was released. Clarke then put Tommy Leach at short and Wagner at third, instructing Leach to persuade Honus to swap positions. The con game worked, as Honus grudgingly took the position for good."

1902 Ballot
1) Honus Wagner
2) Rube Waddell
3) Cy Young
4) Ed Delahanty
5) Noodles Hahn
6) Jack Taylor
7) Nap Lajoie
8) Fred Clarke
9) Ginger Beaumont
10) Sam Crawford
   21. lieiam Posted: March 05, 2015 at 10:45 PM (#4908355)
FYI: don't think i'm going to get a ballot done...
   22. toratoratora Posted: March 06, 2015 at 08:15 AM (#4908411)
I'm unable to sign in with my normal computer so I can' t post the list but run with my prelim as my ballot
   23. DL from MN Posted: March 06, 2015 at 09:40 AM (#4908453)
toratoratora Posted: February 21, 2015 at 02:50 PM (#4901465)
I thought I'd posted this a while ago...

No adjustments, still have to figure the order of 11-15

1902 prelim:

1-Waddell-Leads in WAA w/o minor league credit
2-Young-384 IP, 164 ERA+
3-Taylor-206 ERA+, but has eight less starts and fifty less innings than Cy
4-Big Ed in his final great year
5-Honus-Finally ensconced at SS
6-Noodles Hahn
9-Willis-410 IP pitched, leads league in K's but Waddell kills him on rate stats
10-McGinnity-volume carries him into the top 10
   24. DL from MN Posted: March 06, 2015 at 01:42 PM (#4908598)
Only 9 ballots but I'm closing it.

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