Eric C MLEs 1919

Player Name Age Lg  Pos  PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos  RAA   WAA  Rrep RAR   WAR
====================================================================================
Dobie Moore  23 NL  SS  530   23    0      10    8   40   4.8   17   57   6.9
Oscar Charleston  22 NL  CF  520   38    1     - 2   - 3   35   4.0   16   51   6.1
Cristobal Torriente  25 NL  CF  530   28    1       0   - 3    25   3.0   17   42   5.0
Bullet Rogan  25 NL  CF  510   25    1       3   - 6   23   2.8   16   39   4.7
Alejandro Oms  23 NL  CF  510   23    0    0    -1    -3   19   2.3   17   37   4.4
Pete Hill  36 NL RF   420   29    0    0    -1    -5   24   2.8   13   37   4.4
John H Lloyd  35 NL SS    450   14    0    0     2     6   22   2.6   14   36   4.4
Hurley McNair  30 NL  LF  530   22    0     3     - 6   19   2.2   17   35   4.3
Pelayo Chacon  30 NL SS    490    9    0      2     7   18   2.2   15   34   4.1
Edgar Wesley  28 NL  1B  520   19    0       2   - 4   17   2.0   16   33   4.0
Ben Taylor  30 NL  1B  560   15    0       4   - 5   14   1.7   17   32   3.9
Blainey Hall  30  NL LF   580   20    0     -1    -6    12   1.4   18   30   3.6
Heavy Johnson  24 NL   C  270   16    0    0     1     3    20   2.4    9   30   3.5
Bill Pettus  34 NL 1B    460   13    0    0     5   - 4   15   1.8   14   29   3.5
Spots Poles  31 NL  CF  510    9    1    0     3   - 3    10   1.2   17   27   3.3
Louis Santop  30 NL  C  390    9    0       0    4   13   1.6   12   25   3.1
Jimmie Lyons  28 NL  RF   450   14     1     0     1    - 5    11   1.4   14   25   3.1
Oliver Marcelle  24 NL  3B  580  - 2    0      2    4     4   0.5   18   22   2.7
George Carr  24 NL  1B  520   12    0     - 1   - 4    7   0.8   16   23   2.8
Bill Pierce  29 NL  1B    370    9    0       3   - 3    8   0.9   12   19   2.4
Irvin Brooks  28 NL  CF  480    4    0     1   - 3     2   0.2   15   17   2.1
Bernardo Baro  23  NL CF   490  - 1    1      0     - 3   - 4  -0.5   15   11   1.4
Dick Lundy 20 NL  SS   110    2    0    0      0     2    4   0.5    3    8   1.0



               PITCHING          |  BATTING    |  TOTAL
PITCHER  AGE   IP  RAA   WAA   WAR  |   PA   WAR  |   WAR
==========================================================
Whitworth   23  280   65   8.8   1.8  |   93  -0.1  |  11.2 
Redding   29  280   42   5.5   8.1  |   93   0.1  |   8.2
Donaldson   28  240   40   5.2   7.4  |   80   0.3  |   7.7
Rogan   25  240   21   2.7   4.9  |   80   0.7  |   5.6
Williams   33  280   20   2.5   5.1  |   93   0.4  |   5.5
Mendez   34  140   18   2.3   3.6  |   47   0.1  |    3.7
Padron   26  240  - 7  -0.8   1.6  |   80  -0.5  |   1.3 
Pedroso   32  200  - 7  -0.8   1.1  |   67   0.4  |   1.5

There's obviously an error in the Dick Whitworth MLE (8.8 WAA but 1.8 WAR).

Moore and Rogan were still playing with the Wreckers in 1919. They started playing full time Negro League baseball in 1920.

Dick Whitworth v Dick Redding - NGL stats

Player Name Team W L W% G GS GF CG SHO SV IP R ER H HR BB K WP BK HBP BF ERA ERA+ RA
Dick Redding BRG/AC 7 4 .636 12 8 7 1 0 96.1 21 14 62 1 26 55 0 1 366 1.31 230 1.96
Dick Whitworth CAG/AC 10 2 .833 15 9 8 2 2 98.0 29 18 74 2 46 57 0 0 397 1.65 184 2.66

That's an advantage of 0.7 in run average in roughly the same innings for Dick Redding. No comment about quality of competition East v West.

1919 Prelim

1) Babe Ruth - tops the list as a position player or a pitcher due to lapping the field in HR
2) Walter Johnson - another top season, see next post
3) Cannonball Dick Redding - best season from him
4) Heinie Groh - solid defender
5) Dick Whitworth
6) Pete Alexander
7) Bobby Veach
8) George Burns (NL)
9) Eddie Cicotte - then he threw the World Series
10) Hippo Vaughn - another year for pitchers

11-15) John Donaldson, Edd Roush, Roger Peckinpaugh, Eddie Collins, Ty Cobb
16-20) George Sisler, Rogers Hornsby, Tris Speaker, Oscar Charleston, Joe Jackson

Best pitching seasons in the history of the MMP project by my point score

1913 W Johnson 22.6
1985 Gooden 21.5
1995 Maddux 21.4
1972 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6
1918 W Johnson 20.4
1997 Clemens 19.9
1968 Gibson 19.5
2000 P Martinez 19.5
2009 Greinke 19.1
1902 Waddell 19.1
1912 W Johnson 19.1
1944 Trout 19.0
1945 Newhouser 18.8
1963 Koufax 18.7
1946 Feller 18.6
1919 W Johnson 18.5
1972 Seaver 18.3
2004 Santana 18.2
1971 Seaver 18.0
1999 P Martinez 18.0
1971 Wood 17.9
2015 Greinke 17.9
1901 Young 17.8
1916 Alexander 17.8
1978 Guidry 17.7
1972 Perry 17.7
1995 R Johnson 17.7
1980 Carlton 17.5
1953 Roberts 17.5

Should be Johnson vs Ruth again. I'm not sure who will be #1 on my ballot this year though I'm currently leaning towards Ruth.

1919 World Series

Player Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB E WPA
Heinie Groh 8 29 6 5 2 0 0 2 6 4 .172 .314 .241 .556 0 3 -0.26
Morrie Rath 8 31 5 7 1 0 0 2 4 1 .226 .333 .258 .591 2 2 0.05
Edd Roush 8 28 6 6 2 1 0 7 3 0 .214 .333 .357 .690 2 2 0.07

Eddie Collins 8 31 2 7 1 0 0 1 1 2 .226 .273 .258 .531 1 2 -0.36
Happy Felsch 8 26 2 5 1 0 0 3 1 4 .192 .222 .231 .453 0 2 -0.20
Joe Jackson 8 32 5 12 3 0 1 6 1 2 .375 .394 .563 .956 0 0 0.58

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP WPA
Dutch Ruether 2 2 2.57 1 0 0 1 14.0 12 5 4 4 1 1.143 -0.03

Eddie Cicotte 3 3 2.91 1 2 0 2 21.2 19 9 7 5 7 1.108 0.02
Lefty Williams 3 3 6.61 0 3 0 1 16.1 12 12 12 8 4 1.224 -0.58

Then there's the matter of whether any of these stats matter since the outcome was pre-determined. The best performer among candidates was Jackson who was in on the fix. I am inclined to give Edd Roush a small bump and give no credit to anyone else.

I'm debating whether to jump in here and put together a ballot and I have two questions.

1) When will the ballot thread open and close?
2) What are we allowed to do with respect to the Black Sox? Specifically, is it permissible to simply keep the "Eight Men Out" of our consideration set? And if not, is it permissible to negatively value their having thrown the World Series beyond simply including their lousy (in some cases) World Series performances?

Oh, one more question re: Negro Leaguers. Are the numbers in the intro (e.g., Oscar Charleston 18.4 WS, 5.1 WAR) on the same scale as the for the white guys (e.g., Del Pratt is at 21.1, 5.3) or are these both based on actual games played? And then ditto for comment #1 (where Charleston is at 6.1 WAR) - is that based on Charleston's actual playing time or is it normalized to an MLB-length season and, if it's normalized, is it normalized to the length of the actual 1919 season which was only 140 games long?

Thanks!

1919 prelim ballot

1. Dick Whitworth 10.2 WARR
2. Walter Johnson 10.16 WARR
3. Bobby Veach 9.32 WARR. outstanding fielding numbers
4. Eddie Cicotte 9.26 WARR
5. Babe Adams 8.18 WARR
6. Pete Alexander 7.92 WARR
7. Babe Ruth 7.75 WARR Best hitter, but since pitching numbers were well below average, total ranking is not as high as expected
8. Roger Peckinpaugh 7.18 WARR
9. Tris Speaker 7.14 WARR
10. Art Fletcher 7.05 WARR

Rest of the top 15
11. Dick Redding
12. George Burns (NL)
13. John Donaldson
14. George Sisler
15. Del Pratt

I am about to open the ballot thread. It will close the following Wednesday.

This is the extent of the rules on what to do about the Black Sox:

"Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be judged in relation to the highest level major league, not relative to a minor league. A season may include playoff or World Series games but does not include spring training or exhibition games. No credit will be given for games not played due to injury, wartime service or contract holdouts."

1. Dick Whitworth 10.2 WARR
2. Walter Johnson 10.16 WARR

I have Walter Johnson's season as one of the top 20. I don't see how Dick Whitworth's MLE makes sense, especially when the underlying stats say Redding was better. Was this season by Dick Whitworth really one of the top 20 of all time?

I have Walter Johnson's season as one of the top 20. I don't see how Dick Whitworth's MLE makes sense, especially when the underlying stats say Redding was better. Was this season by Dick Whitworth really one of the top 20 of all time?

I appreciate your comment. The whole issue of the evaluation of NgL players in comparison to players in other NgL or to MLB players is one which I certainly do not have any definitive answers. I do not have the time or skill to consider all of the variables which have to be considered (park factors, run environment, quality of leagues, smaller sample sizes in NgL any many others) in order to provide a valid comparison . However someone (with I assume more skill than myself) has come up with MLEs which provide enough information so that I can can adjust the numbers to fit into my system. If someone has calculated MLEs in a better manner I would be the first person to be open to this information. Otherwise, I have to use the information available.

Is Whitworth better than Johnson? I don't know (even the best MLEs cannot accurately reflect the relative value of players). I will certainly look at possible adjustments to his numbers before the final ballot.

Is Whitworth better than Redding? Evidence (the MLEs printed above and the WAR values on Seamheads) both indicate that Whitworth had more value. I know you disagree. I would appreciate your thought process on how you arrived at the conclusion that Redding was better than Whitworth.

Thank you

It's mostly this from post 4

"advantage of 0.7 in run average in roughly the same innings for Dick Redding"

That's a big advantage in run average. The peripheral stats favor Dick Redding

Pitcher  k% BB% H% RA
Redding 15% 7% 17% 1.96
Whitworth 14% 12% 19% 2.66

Of course that assumes quality of competition is the same. They did both play for Atlantic City that season and Redding was the workhorse but I think Whitworth was only added for the end of the season as a pick-up. Whitworth spent most of his year as the ace in Chicago.

1919 Atlantic City Bacharach Giants vs Hilldale

In September of 1919 the Atlantic City Bacharach Giants met Hilldale for the “Colored Championship of the East” Atlantic City was led by the hitting of Spotswood Poles (.441), John Henry “Pop” Lloyd (.408), Bill Handy .338 and Ben Taylor (.296). Dick Cannonball Redding was the ace of the Bacharach Giants’ pitching staff. Ben Johnson, Jesse “Mountain” Hubbard, Roy Roberts, Dick Whitworth and Frank “The Red Ant” Wickware rounded out Atlantic City’s pitching staff. Hilldale’s top hitters included Otto Briggs, Dick Lundy (.348), George Johnson (.328), Tom Allen (.283) and Louis Santop. Hilldale’s pitching staff was made up of Phil Cockrell, Willis “Pud” Flournoy, Otis “Lefty” and Tom Williams.

After the first eight games of the series had been played, neither team had the edge. Each team had won four games. The ninth and deciding game was played at Shibe Park in Philadelphia with over 5,000 fans in attendance. Dick “Cannonball” Redding took the mound for the Bacharach Giants. Hilldale countered with their ace, Tom Williams. Cannonball Redding pitched a two hit 5-0 shut out victory for Hilldale to give his team the championship.

“Colored Champions of the East” – Atlantic City Bacharach Giants.

Preliminary ballot-no postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Pennant-contender

1. Walter Johnson
2. Babe Ruth
3. Eddie Cicotte
4. Bobby Veach
5. George Sisler
6. Dick Redding
7. Ty Cobb
8. Rogers Hornsby
9. Pete Alexander
10.Babe Adams