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Thursday, June 04, 2020

Most Meritorious Player: 1928 Discussion

The Yankees swept the Cardinals in the World Series. The St. Louis Stars won the Negro National League Championship Series over the Chicago American Giants.

Vote for 10.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Babe Ruth		44.8		10.1
Lou Gehrig		41.6		9.4
Rogers Hornsby		29.1		8.8
Paul Waner		33.4		6.8
Freddie Lindstrom	31.8		6.4
Goose Goslin		25.6		7.5
Heinie Manush		34.0		7.3
Gabby Hartnett		24.5		5.2
Joe Sewell		23.6		5.4
Jim Bottomley		28.5		5.3
Max Bishop		23.4		5.0
Jimmie Foxx		21.3		4.8
Willie Kamm		23.7		4.1
Travis Jackson		22.6		5.4
Tony Lazzeri		22.4		4.7
Frankie Frisch		22.7		4.1
Mickey Cochrane		21.1		3.3
Hack Wilson		27.3		5.3
Chick Hafey		24.8		5.0
Al Simmons		22.4		4.6
Del Bissonette		23.7		4.4
Pie Traynor		22.2		3.5
Riggs Stephenson	22.2		3.8
Charlie Gehringer	22.2		4.5
Ossie Bluege		17.2		4.2
Earle Combs		28.4		4.5
Taylor Douthit		24.2		3.1
Mel Ott			19.5		3.9
Bill Terry		23.8		4.0
Lu Blue			22.2		4.7
Harry Heilmann		21.6		4.0

Willie Wells				6.2
Jud Wilson				3.7
Mule Suttles				4.5
Oscar Charleston			2.5
Turkey Stearnes				4.6
Newt Allen				3.4
George Scales				2.1
Rap Dixon				3.8
Wilson Redus				2.0
Bullet Rogan				4.5
Pythias Russ				4.5
John Hines 				2.9
Biz Mackey				2.1

Pitcher			SH WS		BBR WAR
Dazzy Vance		31.1		10.3
Larry Benton		29.6		6.5
Tommy Thomas		24.6		7.0
Sheriff Blake		24.9		5.5
Lefty Grove		28.2		7.2
Burleigh Grimes		29.8		7.0
Bill Sherdel		23.3		6.0
Herb Pennock		19.5		5.9
Ownie Carroll		18.3		5.0
Garland Braxton		22.0		5.5
General Crowder		21.1		4.8
Sam Jones		20.8		6.2
Pat Malone		23.1		3.9
Red Ruffing		19.9		4.8
Art Nehf		17.5		3.8
Ed Morris		21.5		4.0
Sam Gray		23.9		4.9
Eppa Rixey		22.1		4.1
Doug McWeeny		17.7		4.4
Jesse Haines		19.7		4.5
Pete Alexander		19.1		4.1
Ray Kolp		17.5		3.6
Waite Hoyt		21.2		5.2
George Pipgras		21.1		4.6
Red Ruffing		19.9		4.8

Ted Trent				6.8
Satchel Paige				4.9
Carl Glass				4.8
William Bell				3.5
Darltie Cooper				4.2
Luther Farrell				4.4
Willie Foster				2.6
	
DL from MN Posted: June 04, 2020 at 04:40 PM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: June 04, 2020 at 04:59 PM (#5955382)
Eric C NGL MLEs
Player Name Age Lg Pos G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR
Willie Wells 22 NL SS 136 590 36 1 0 5 8 50 4.9 18 68 6.8
Jud Wilson 32 NL 3B 125 540 39 1 0 3 3 46 4.5 17 63 6.2
Mule Suttles 27 NL 1B 141 610 41 0 0 2 -6 38 3.8 19 57 5.7
Turkey Stearnes 27 NL CF 152 660 34 0 0 2 -3 34 3.3 21 54 5.4
Martin Dihigo 23 NL CF 138 600 23 1 0 6 -3 28 2.8 19 46 4.7
George Scales 27 NL 2B 129 560 19 0 0 2 4 25 2.5 17 43 4.3
Dick Lundy 29 NL SS 136 590 11 0 0 5 8 24 2.4 18 43 4.3
Oscr Charleston 31 NL CF 148 640 21 2 0 2 -3 22 2.1 20 41 4.2
Bullet Rogan 34 NL RF 120 520 28 1 0 0 -5 24 2.4 16 40 4.0
Newt Allen 27 NL 2B 145 630 -1 0 0 14 4 18 1.8 20 37 3.8
Alejandro Oms 32 NL CF 141 610 17 0 0 -1 -3 13 1.3 21 34 3.4
Cool Papa Bell 25 NL CF 152 660 15 2 0 -1 -3 13 1.3 21 33 3.4
Biz Mackey 30 NL C 131 570 8 0 0 1 4 13 1.3 18 31 3.1
John Beckwith 28 NL 3B 136 590 13 0 0 -4 4 13 1.3 18 31 3.2
Heavy Johnson 33 NL RF 113 490 13 0 0 -1 -5 7 0.7 17 24 2.4
Crist Torriente 34 NL LF 104 450 7 0 0 -3 -4 0 0.0 14 14 1.5
Hurley McNair 39 NL LF 69 300 0 0 0 2 -3 -1 -0.1 9 8 0.8
Ben Taylor 39 NL 1B 46 200 -1 0 0 1 -2 -1 -0.1 6 5 0.5

Pitcher Name Age Lg G IP R RA9 lgRA9 RAA WAA pWAR Rrep RAR PA Rbat Rpos RAA bWAR WAR
Webstr McDonald 28 NL 27 180 53 2.65 4.70 41 4.5 6.2 18 59 60 -6 6 0 0.0 6.2
William Bell 30 NL 38 240 103 3.86 4.70 22 2.3 4.8 23 46 80 -2 8 6 0.4 5.2
Willie Foster 24 NL 41 270 123 4.10 4.70 18 1.9 4.6 26 44 90 -7 10 2 0.1 4.8
Bullet Rogan 34 NL 33 210 93 3.97 4.70 17 1.8 3.9 20 38 70 4 7 11 0.7 4.6
Satchel Paige 21 AL 33 210 91 3.88 4.81 22 2.2 4.4 21 43 70 -6 7 1 0.1 4.5
Dick Redding 38 NL 33 210 98 4.18 4.70 12 1.2 3.4 20 33 70 -3 7 4 0.3 3.7
Joe Williams 42 NL 8 50 18 3.24 4.70 8 0.9 1.4 5 13 18 -1 2 1 0.1 1.5
Martin Dihigo 23 NL 10 50 24 4.28 4.70 2 0.2 0.7 5 7 17 0 2 2 0.1 0.9
Bill Holland 27 NL 8 50 48 8.66 4.70 -22 -1.8 -1.2 5 -17 17 -2 2 0 0.0 -1.2


   2. bjhanke Posted: June 06, 2020 at 02:40 PM (#5955815)
I noticed the very low WAR ranking of Oscar Charleston this year, as compared to earlier years (and last year, while not as weak as this year, was weak compared to Oscar's other seasons). I suspect, from what I've read, that Oscar had an injury, or just got fat, and spent the 1930s as a first baseman because he could longer run outfield fast. Does anyone know what is happening here? An injury? Just got fat? Stopped playing any serious amount of time in the Negro Leagues, as opposed to the Latin American options? WAR is, of course, subject to how much playing time the player had in the Negro Leagues, plus whatever other leagues they count. But, to repeat, does anyone actually know what happened to Oscar here? I haven't found any details anywhere I've looked.
   3. Gch Posted: June 06, 2020 at 08:58 PM (#5955882)
I don't have access to any of my usual NeL books, but luckily the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum has an eMuseum with profiles on players. Their profile on Charleston includes "After leaving the Grays, Charleston's age and weight gain prompted a move to first base, where he continued to star as playing manager for the outstanding Pittsburgh Crawfords of 1932-1936."

The original HoM discussion about Charleston included Chris Cobb writing "Charleston's fielding peak 1920-21 fits plausibly with a fielding career curve and the establishment of his reputation; his decline in 1927-29 fits what's happening in his hitting/baserunning stats, the anecdotes about his decline, and his shift to first base."

But, looking closer (as far as I know, and I don't speak with any sort of authority on NeL stats, or stats in general) his decline in the quoted WAR number this year has more to do with his bat than his glove or playing time. He was still two years away from shifting to leaving CF for 1B. In the chart above, Charleston is still playing CF and is credited with +2 fielding runs, which is tied for second place behind Dihigo's +6. Looking back, he has the exact same rField in DL's posts for 1924-1927, so he's not being dinged for a fielding decline. And he's credited with 640 plate appearances, so it's not an issue with his playing time. The main decline at this point seems to be hitting: Seamheads credits Charleston with a .399/.502/.694 line in 1927, and .348/.453/.618 in 28, with their OPS+ numbers dropping from 209 to 184. And in the numbers above, Eric C has his batting runs declining from 45 last year (and 101 in 1924, wow) to 21 this year. If he'd hit as well in 28 as he did in 27, he'd still be near the top of the NeL WAR rankings above (around 6.5 or 6.6, AFAICT).
   4. bjhanke Posted: June 10, 2020 at 04:28 AM (#5956559)
Gch - Thanks for the Charleston info. I had figured out that Oscar had, at some time, gained weight and moved to 1B, but I didn't know when, and I didn't know the speed of the decline. Your info helps me a LOT! So, thanks again!
   5. bjhanke Posted: June 10, 2020 at 04:29 AM (#5956560)
deleted
   6. bjhanke Posted: June 10, 2020 at 04:31 AM (#5956561)
deleted
   7. DL from MN Posted: June 15, 2020 at 10:19 AM (#5957346)
1928 Prelim

1) Dazzy Vance - another one for my best pitcher seasons
2) Rogers Hornsby - poor fielder but positional value moves him to the top of the position players
3) Babe Ruth - Best bat but not by leaps and bounds. Glove is declining.
4) Lou Gehrig
5) Paul Waner
6) Freddie Lindstrom
7) Willie Wells - Best NGL player
8) Ted Trent - Best NGL pitcher
9) Goose Goslin
10) Larry Benton

11-15) Gabby Hartnett, Heinie Manush, Tommy Thomas, Sheriff Blake, Lefty Grove
16-21) Jud Wilson, Joe Sewell, Rap Dixon, Mule Suttles, Darltie Cooper, Jim Bottomley
   8. DL from MN Posted: June 15, 2020 at 10:20 AM (#5957347)
Best pitching seasons in the history of the MMP project by my point score

1913 W Johnson 22.6
1920 Alexander 22.2
1985 Gooden 21.5
1995 Maddux 21.4
1972 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6
1918 W Johnson 20.4
1923 D Luque 20.2
1928 Vance 19.9
1997 Clemens 19.9
1924 Vance 19.6
1968 Gibson 19.5
2000 P Martinez 19.5
2009 Greinke 19.1
1902 Waddell 19.1
1912 W Johnson 19.1
1921 Faber 19.0
1944 Trout 19.0
1945 Newhouser 18.8
1963 Koufax 18.7
1946 Feller 18.6
1919 W Johnson 18.5
1972 Seaver 18.3
2004 Santana 18.2
1971 Seaver 18.0
1999 P Martinez 18.0
1971 Wood 17.9
2015 Greinke 17.9
1901 Young 17.8
1916 Alexander 17.8
1978 Guidry 17.7
1972 Perry 17.7
1995 R Johnson 17.7
1980 Carlton 17.5
1953 Roberts 17.5
   9. DL from MN Posted: June 16, 2020 at 12:13 PM (#5957559)
I need to work up Webster McDonald. He was playing mostly for a mostly white semi-pro team in Little Falls, Minnesota so he doesn't show up in the NGL stats.
   10. bjhanke Posted: June 19, 2020 at 05:41 AM (#5958223)
Here’s Brock Hanke’s ballot for 1928. If I don’t get anything posted on the Ballot Thread, please just transfer this. I’m not going to change it. There’s actually a pretty decent consensus between WAR and Win Shares this year, although about three of the position players have serious disconnects. I put in Satchel Paige instead of any other Negro Leaguer, largely because I am a bit conservative about the NgL. There were a few candidates whose WAR were very close to Paige’s, but if you ask me who I would most TRUST as a top ten player, well, Satchel is going to win. And then there’s Larry Benton. I had literally never heard or read the name before; I had no clue who he might be. But Win Shares has him listed 9th, and WAR has him listed 11th, so he shows up on the top ten list. So, I looked him up.

I immediately could see why I’d never heard of Benton before. He had been a good pitcher, but in lesser roles, for a few years before 1928, but then the Giants, for some reason, gave him 310 IP, almost 75 more than he had in any other year. He led the league in Wins and Complete Games, but nothing else, although he actually finished fourth in the MVP voting.

And, then, things got odd. I noticed that his birthday was November 20, 1897, and he was born in St. Louis. I was born in STL, too, on November 20, 1947. So, I was born 50 years later than Benton, to the day, in the same city. I considered moving him up a couple of slots for this, but why? This paragraph is enough.

1. Babe Ruth
2. Lou Gehrig
3. Dazzy Vance
4. Heinie Manush
5. Rogers Hornsby
6. Paul Waner
7. Stachel Paige
8. Burleigh Grimes
9. Fred Lindstrom
10. Larry Benton
   11. Yardape Posted: June 22, 2020 at 05:57 PM (#5958819)
Prelim ballot: I use B-R's WAR to gather the consideration set, then look at various component stats to compare and make mental adjustments where I feel appropriate.

1. Babe Ruth - Doesn't tower over everyone this year, but the next two best bats aren't great gloves either.
2. Dazzy Vance - Easily the best pitcher
3. Lou Gehrig
4. Rogers Hornsby - Hornsby has a positional advantage over the two Yankees, but his lousy glove means it's not enough to move him up.
5. Willie Wells - Best NgL player. Best player with defense as a substantial part of value.
6. Paul Waner
7. Lefty Grove
8. Martin Dihigo - I'm assuming the 1927-28 Cuban Winter League would be considered for this exercise.
9. Jim Bottomley
10. Rap Dixon - Best hitter in the ECL.

1928 was the year of the best minor league outfield ever - Smead Jolley, Earl Averill and Roy Johnson in San Francisco. I took a look at them, and Jolley's batting line is something, but you would need a pretty generous conversion to get him on the ballot. Plus there's the matter of defense...
   12. Yardape Posted: June 22, 2020 at 06:00 PM (#5958820)
Dazzy Vance - another one for my best pitcher seasons


Can anyone tell me something about Vance's usage this year? On B-R, his leverage index is 3.45, well above any other season in his career.
   13. Gch Posted: June 26, 2020 at 08:13 PM (#5959772)
Can anyone tell me something about Vance's usage this year? On B-R, his leverage index is 3.45, well above any other season in his career.


Just saw this. His leverage index is based on 6 games:

Game 1: May 14 vs Pittsburgh. Vance enters in the bottom of the 8th with a 7-6 lead, pitches the last two innings successfully for the save. Leverage Index 4.59.

Game 2: June 19 vs Philadelphia. Vance enters with a 10-9 lead in the bottom of the 9th, with runners on first and second and only one out. He gives up a game ending triple to the first batter for a blown save. Leverage index: 7.16.

Game 3: June 26 vs Boston, second game of a doubleheader. Vance enters in the bottom of the 8th, down 5-3 with one out and runners on second and third. He gets out of the inning with a popup and a strikeout, then gets pinch-hit for in the bottom of the inning. A rally in that inning gives him the win. Leverage index: 0.46.

Game 4: July 7 vs Chicago, first game of a doubleheader. Vance enters in the bottom of the 7th with a 5-3 lead and runners on first and second with no outs. He gets a double play on a bunt, gives up a single, then gets out of the inning with a grounder. He pitches the eighth and the 9th without incident, getting his second save. Leverage index: 1.69.

Game 5: July 18 vs Cincinnati, second game of a doubleheader. Vance enters in the bottom of the 8th, 0-0 tie, runner on first and no outs. He gives up 2 runs and the Robins lose. Leverage index: 1.99.

Game 6: September 11 vs Philadelphia, second game of a doubleheader. Vance enters in the bottom of the 9th, up 3-2 with a runner on second and no outs. He gives up a walkoff homer to Freddy Leach. Leverage index: 4.30.

So basically he was sparingly used as a fireman, usually in a doubleheader.

I can't find anything about why Wilbert Robinson chose to use him in this way but it mostly seems to be a necessity thing.
   14. DL from MN Posted: June 29, 2020 at 10:53 AM (#5960123)
1928 World Series
Player Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS E WPA
Earle Combs 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 - - - - 0 0 - 0.02
Lou Gehrig 4 11 5 6 1 0 4 9 6 0 .545 .706 1.727 2.433 0 0 0 0.99
Tony Lazzeri 4 12 2 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 .250 .308 .333 .641 2 0 2 0.05 
Babe Ruth 4 16 9 10 3 0 3 4 1 2 .625 .647 1.375 2.022 0 0 0 0.42

Jim Bottomley* 4 14 1 3 0 1 1 3 2 6 .214 .313 .571 .884 0 0 0 0.01
Taylor Douthit 3 11 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 .091 .231 .091 .322 0 0 0 -0.11
Frankie Frisch# 4 13 1 3 0 0 0 1 2 2 .231 .333 .231 .564 2 0 0 -0.05
Chick Hafey 4 15 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 4 .200 .250 .200 .450 0 0 1 -0.28

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP WPA
Waite Hoyt 2 2 1.50 2 0 0 2 18.0 14 4 3 6 14 1.111 0.58
George Pipgras 1 1 2.00 1 0 0 1 9.0 4 3 2 4 8 0.889 -0.02

Pete Alexander 2 1 19.80 0 1 0 0 5.0 10 11 11 4 2 2.800 -0.73
Jesse Haines 1 1 4.50 0 1 0 0 6.0 6 6 3 3 3 1.500 -0.39
Bill Sherdel* 2 2 4.73 0 2 0 0 13.1 15 7 7 3 3 1.350 -0.17


4 games, 9 HR from the Yankees. 3 HR and 3 2B from Ruth; 4 HR and 6 BB from Gehrig.
   15. Yardape Posted: June 29, 2020 at 06:43 PM (#5960272)
Just saw this. His leverage index is based on 6 games:


Thanks, that's interesting. I was misreading the stat on B-R; I thought it was for the whole season (not just relief appearances) and I couldn't figure out what had happened. But that makes a lot more sense.
   16. Qufini Posted: June 30, 2020 at 10:47 AM (#5960349)
1928 Prelim Ballot

1. Babe Ruth, RF, New York Yankees: MLB leading 206 OPS+ and 173 RC
2. Rogers Hornsby, 2B, Boston Braves: NL leading 202 OPS+ but -11 fielding keeps him from catching Ruth
3. Lou Gehrig, 1B, New York Yankees: 193 OPS+ and 164 RC
4. Dazzy Vance, P, Brooklyn Robins: 190 ERA+ leads MLB and 280 IP ain't too shabby
5. Heinie Manush, LF, St. Louis Browns: 154 OPS+ and 153 RC
6. Goose Goslin, LF, Washington Senators: better production (176 OPS+) in fewer games (135) than Manush
7. Willie Wells, SS, St. Louis Stars: 184 OPS+ and the equivalent of +12 fielding
8. Burleigh Grimes, P, Pittsburgh Pirates: 330 IP leads MLB by a wide margin; 136 ERA+ is nothing to sneeze at
9. Jim Bottomley, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: 2nd in NL with 162 OPS+ and 144 RC
10. Gabby Hartnett, C, Chicago Cubs: 142 OPS+ cracks the top ten, +10 fielding pushes him onto the ballot

11. Larry Benton, P, New York Giants: second most IP in MLB with 310 to go with 142 ERA+
12. Bill Sherdel, P, St. Louis Cardinals: a near copy of Benton, 141 ERA+ in 298 IP
13. Hack Wilson, CF, Chicago Cubs
14. Lefty Grove, P, Philadelphia Athletics: top pitcher in the AL
15. Ted Trent, P, St. Louis Stars: top pitcher in the Negro Leagues
16. Sheriff Blake, P, Chicago Cubs
17. Chick Hafey, LF, St. Louis Cardinals
18. Tommy Thomas, P, Chicago White Sox
19. Turkey Stearnes, CF, Detroit Stars
20. Garland Braxton, P, Washington Senators
   17. DL from MN Posted: June 30, 2020 at 11:38 AM (#5960356)
First ballot to leave off Paul Waner, a bit surprised he doesn't even make the next 10.
   18. Qufini Posted: June 30, 2020 at 08:40 PM (#5960487)
Since you asked, I had Waner just behind Stearnes and Braxton in 21st.
   19. DL from MN Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:34 AM (#5961449)
Thanks for participating

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