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Monday, August 17, 2020

Most Meritorious Player: 1930 Discussion

The Philadelphia Athletics beat the St. Louis Cardinals 4 games to 2 in the World Series.

The St. Louis Stars defeated the Detroit Stars in the Negro League Championship Series.

Vote for 10.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Babe Ruth		37.6		10.5
Lou Gehrig		37.6		9.6
Joe Cronin		32.8		8.4
Al Simmons		35.2		7.8
Mickey Cochrane		29.6		5.2
Chuck Klein		27.1		6.5
Hack Wilson		34.9		7.4
Gabby Hartnett		29.4		5.4
Charlie Gehringer	28.7		6.5
Babe Herman		32.8		6.9
Bill Terry		31.3		7.6
Mel Ott			27.8		6.4
Jimmie Foxx		32.1		7.1
Kiki Cuyler		30.0		5.9
Woody English		28.6		5.5
Frankie Frisch		25.1		4.7
Freddie Lindstrom	27.2		6.4
Marty McManus		21.5		4.4
Glenn Wright		21.4		5.3
Goose Goslin		26.2		5.3
Carl Reynolds		25.3		6.3
Johnny Hodapp		25.1		4.8
Johnny Frederick	23.7		4.3
Max Bishop		20.7		4.5
Ed Morgan		27.1		5.7
Pie Traynor		22.1		4.2
George Grantham		24.1		4.0
Sam Rice		22.5		4.7
Harry Heilmann		19.3		4.6
Travis Jackson		17.6		4.9
Earl Averill		24.0		4.0
Heinie Manush		22.1		4.2
Wally Berger		24.4		4.2
Earle Combs		22.2		5.2
Chick Hafey		20.3		3.6
Paul Waner		25.7		4.2
Lefty O'Doul		19.4		4.6

Willie Wells				6.5
Ted Radcliffe				4.6
Mule Suttles				4.5
George Scales				3.7
Turkey Stearnes				3.5		
Cool Papa Bell				2.9
George Giles				2.7
Newt Allen				2.6
Oscar Charleston			2.0
Vic Harris 				2.6
Josh Gibson				1.5
Biz Mackey				1.1

Pitcher			SH WS		BBR WAR
Lefty Grove		38.0		10.4
Wes Ferrell		32.1		9.4
Lefty Stewart		26.7		7.7
Dazzy Vance		25.8		6.6
George Uhle		22.5		7.3
Ted Lyons		24.8		6.3
Phil Collins		15.6		5.5
Pat Malone		22.4		4.8
Socks Seibold		20.7		4.2
Vic Sorrell		18.8		5.6
Milt Gaston		19.6		5.1
Bob Smith		18.0		4.8
Pat Caraway		14.6		4.4
General Crowder		22.5		4.5
Larry French		18.3		3.4
Danny MacFayden		17.9		4.0
Bump Hadley		20.9		4.8
Ray Kolp		13.8		3.3
Benny Frey		15.5		3.4
Charlie Root		16.7		3.3
Carl Hubbell		19.2		3.2		
George Earnshaw		21.8		4.5
Firpo Marberry		15.8		3.3
Freddie Fitzsimmons	16.9		2.8
Red Ruffing		15.9		4.2

Satchel Paige				3.5
Sam Streeter				4.4
Nelson Dean				4.4
William Bell				4.1
Willie Foster				4.0
Joe Williams				4.0
Logan Hensley				3.8
Chet Brewer				3.1
Heliodoro Diaz				2.7
DL from MN Posted: August 17, 2020 at 09:43 PM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: August 17, 2020 at 09:59 PM (#5970232)
Dr. C NGL MLEs
Player Name Age Lg Pos G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR
Willie Wells 24 NL SS 146 640 62 1 0 6 9 77 6.6 20 97 8.4
Mule Suttles 29 NL 1B 139 610 67 0 0 2 -6 63 5.4 19 82 7.1
Newt Allen 29 NL 2B 146 640 38 0 0 14 4 57 5.0 20 77 6.8
Jud Wilson 34 NL 3B 139 610 44 1 0 4 3 52 4.4 19 71 6.1
Turkey Stearnes 29 NL CF 148 650 44 0 0 2 -3 44 3.8 20 64 5.6
George Scales 29 NL 2B 130 570 38 0 0 2 4 44 3.8 18 62 5.4
Martin Dihigo 25 NL CF 136 600 29 1 0 6 -2 34 3.0 19 53 4.6
Cool Papa Bell 27 NL CF 159 700 31 2 0 -1 -3 29 2.5 22 51 4.5
Biz Mackey 32 NL C 130 570 25 0 0 1 4 30 2.6 18 48 4.2
John Beckwith 30 NL 1B 111 490 38 0 0 -5 -5 28 2.4 15 43 3.8
Dick Lundy 31 NL SS 134 590 4 0 0 5 8 17 1.5 18 35 3.1
Oscr Charleston 33 NL 1B 146 640 17 2 0 2 -6 14 1.2 20 34 3.0
Bullet Rogan 36 NL RF 111 490 24 1 0 -1 -5 19 1.6 15 34 3.0
Alejandro Oms 34 NL CF 139 610 3 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -0.1 21 20 1.8
Heavy Johnson 35 NL RF 68 300 10 0 0 -1 -3 7 0.6 10 17 1.5
Josh Gibson 18 NL C 9 40 2 0 0 0 0 2 0.2 1 3 0.3

Player Name Age Lg G IP R RA9 lgRA9 RAA WAA pWAR Rrep RAR PA Rbat Rpos RAA bWAR WAR 
Willie Foster 26 NL 41 270 112 3.72 5.68 59 5.5 8.3 32 91 90 -7 9 2 0.1 8.5 
Bill Holland 29 NL 38 250 97 3.47 5.68 61 5.8 8.4 30 91 83 -10 9 -1 -0.1 8.2 
Martin Dihigo 25 NL 36 200 83 3.72 5.68 44 4.0 6.1 24 67 67 1 7 8 0.5 6.5 
William Bell 32 NL 36 200 83 3.72 5.68 44 4.0 6.1 24 67 67 -2 7 5 0.3 6.4 
Satchel Paige 23 AL 36 200 88 3.98 5.51 34 3.2 5.2 23 57 67 -6 7 1 0.1 5.3 
Bullet Rogan 36 NL 36 200 108 4.84 5.68 19 1.7 3.8 24 42 67 4 7 11 0.6 4.4 
Ramon Bragana 21 NL 16 100 35 3.17 5.68 28 2.6 3.6 12 40 33 -1 3 2 0.1 3.8 
Dick Redding 40 NL 33 170 95 5.02 5.68 13 1.1 2.9 20 33 57 -3 6 3 0.2 3.1 
Webstr McDonald 30 NL 36 200 129 5.79 5.68 -2 -0.2 2.0 24 21 67 -7 7 0 0.0 2.0 
Joe Williams 44 NL 2 10 4 3.72 5.68 2 0.2 0.3 1 3 17 0 2 2 0.1 0.4 


   2. MrC. Posted: August 25, 2020 at 10:48 AM (#5972033)
1930 Preliminary ballot

1. Joe Cronin 9.67 WARR
2. Babe Ruth 9.64 WARR The first two essentially tied: Cronin got there by defense and Ruth by offense. More thought before final ballot.
3. Lefty Grove 9.10 WARR
4. Bill Terry 8.66 WAEE
5. Lou Gehrig 8.32 WARR
6. Wes Farrell 7.40 WARR solid pitching. Ver y good offense for a pitcher.
7. Al Simmons 7.18 WARR
8. Ted Lyons 6.87 WARR
9. Willie Wells 6.80 WARR
10. Jimmie Foxx 6.64 WARR

Rest of the top 20
11. Ted Radcliffe
12. Dazzy Vance
13. Kiki Cuyler
14. Frankie Frisch
15. Chuck Klein
16. Mel Ott
17 Joe Williams
18. Ed Morgan
19. Pat Malone
20 Charlie Gehringer.
   3. bjhanke Posted: August 27, 2020 at 02:45 AM (#5972524)
I know that the ballot thread isn't up yet, but I was able to get on here with commenting privileges and, rather than wait for disaster at the deadline, I posted up here. Please transfer this to the ballot thread and count it as is. I had almost no decisions to make when compiling this ballot, so there is approximately no chance that I will want to change it.

Hi. This is Brock Hanke’s MMP Ballot for 1930. It’s a very straightforward ballot this time, because there is a lot of consensus between WS and WAR at the top. I only had to make three decisions. First, whether to put Ruth or Grove in the top slot. By the ordinals, they are tied, and there is not even a whole run of difference bwteen them in either WS or WAR. I put Grove ahead because of postseason credit, which I will assume is just fine by the other voters. In the tenth slot, I had Jimmy Foxx and Babe Herman. In the ordinals, Herman is one whole slot ahead of Foxx. But, again, the difference between them does not amount to a whole run in either WS or WAR. And again, I picked Foxx because of postseason credit. The last decision was where to put Devil Wells. I generally look for a gap in the ordinal rankings to put the Negro League player into, but there isn’t really a serious gap anywhere. I ended up listing him fourth because I think that, in general, Devil Wells was a better player than Joe Cronin. Anyway, here’s the list:

1. Lefty Grove
2. Babe Ruth
3. Lou Gehrig
4. Devil Wells
5. Al Simmons
6. Joe Cronin
7. Wes Ferrell
8. Hack Wilson
9. Bill Terry
10. Jimmy Foxx
   4. bjhanke Posted: August 27, 2020 at 02:45 AM (#5972525)
5
   5. bjhanke Posted: August 27, 2020 at 02:46 AM (#5972526)
4
   6. bjhanke Posted: August 27, 2020 at 02:47 AM (#5972527)
3
   7. bjhanke Posted: August 27, 2020 at 02:48 AM (#5972528)
2
   8. bjhanke Posted: August 27, 2020 at 02:48 AM (#5972529)
I
   9. bjhanke Posted: August 27, 2020 at 02:49 AM (#5972530)
As you can tell, it took me multiple attempts to actually post a ballot. Sorry for all the empty comments. - Brock
   10. DL from MN Posted: August 31, 2020 at 11:01 AM (#5973337)
This is a really interesting season. Run scoring is through the roof high in MLB with league adjustments of .90 for both leagues. Not so much in the NGL where the pitchers are striking out players but not separating in ERA+ as much. The NGL pitching translations are telling me that 5 of the 10 best pitchers in baseball were black and I think I believe it.
   11. DL from MN Posted: August 31, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5973357)
1930 Prelim Ballot

1) Willie Wells - He's clearly the best player in the Negro Leagues and possibly the best hitter in the Negro Leagues. His MLEs have him with an RBat of 62. Joe Cronin has an RBat of 36 so that's a 2.5 win advantage for Wells at the plate. Cronin was a very good fielder in 1930 (2.2 FWAA) but Wells was probably above average at age 24 (MLE of 0.6). That makes Willie Wells nearly a full win better than Joe Cronin. 1930 was a season where runs were cheap but not necessarily at SS. In Dan R's MLEs the replacement value for a shortstop is crazy high. He's #1 without a doubt for me.
2) Joe Cronin - Shortstops worth a darn are scarce in 1930.
3) Lefty Grove - best pitcher by a significant margin
4) Babe Ruth
5) Lou Gehrig - Ruth and Gehrig are very close for best available bat. Both were below average defenders at positions loaded with hitters.
6) Wes Ferrell - lots of innings pitched
7) Lefty Stewart - pitched better than Foster but not as many innings and not as good at the plate
8) Willie Foster - Great K/BB ratio and his RA+ ranking was better than his ERA+ ranking.
9) Mule Suttles - Great bat, probably the best NGL hitter but Wells was close
10) Mickey Cochrane - best catcher and the framing studies, though admittedly lacking data, suggest he was one of the best of his era which would be uncaptured value.

11-15) Al Simmons, Newt Allen, Bill Holland, Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson
16-20) Gabby Hartnett, Dazzy Vance, Charlie Gehringer, Babe Herman, Bill Terry
21-26) Mel Ott, Satchel Paige, Jimmie Foxx, Kiki Cuyler, Martin Dihigo, William Bell
   12. DL from MN Posted: August 31, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5973375)
1930 World Series
Player Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS E WPA 
Max Bishop 6 18 5 4 0 0 0 0 7 3 .222 .462 .222 .684 0 0 0 -0.18
Mickey Cochrane 6 18 5 4 1 0 2 4 5 2 .222 .391 .611 1.002 0 1 1 0.01
Jimmie Foxx 6 21 3 7 2 1 1 3 2 4 .333 .391 .667 1.058 0 0 0 0.27
Al Simmons 6 22 4 8 2 0 2 4 2 2 .364 .417 .727 1.144 0 0 0 0.05

Frankie Frisch 6 24 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 .208 .208 .292 .500 1 0 3 -0.24
Chick Hafey 6 22 2 6 5 0 0 2 1 3 .273 .304 .500 .804 0 0 0 -0.27

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP WPA
George Earnshaw 3 3 0.72 2 0 0 2 25.0 13 2 2 7 19 0.800 1.05
Lefty Grove* 3 2 1.42 2 1 0 2 19.0 15 5 3 3 10 0.947 0.76
   13. DL from MN Posted: August 31, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5973433)
The Play-Off Series for the Negro National League title started on September 13th with the first three games being played in St. Louis. The series moved to Hamtramck which is a suburb of
Detroit for the four remaining games. St. Louis went into the series with a decided disadvantage. Their ace pitcher, Andy Cooper, had arm problems and was only available for limited action in the final game of the series.

St. Louis edged out a 5-4 victory in the first game with Ted Trent getting the win and Nelson Dean taking the loss. The Detroit Stars rebounded and won game two by the score of 11-7.

Turkey Stearnes was the hitting star for Detroit. He had gone 3-4 (with a homerun) in game one and had not cooled down for game two. In game two, Stearnes went 5-5 with a homerun, double
and stolen base. St. Louis sent Ted Trent to the mound to start game three. Trent limited Stearnes to one hit in four at bats and the St. Louis Stars went on to a 7-2 victory. Detroit won games four
and five to take a three games to two lead in the series. St. Louis was faced with a must win situation in game six and responded with a 4-3 victory. The victory was secured when James
“Cool Papa” Bell singled in what would be the winning run with two outs in the top of the eighth inning. The series was now tied at three games a piece. The St. Louis Stars sent Roosevelt
Davis to mound to start game seven of the series. The Detroit Stars countered with Nelson Dean. Turkey Stearnes went into game seven batting .517 with 3 homeruns and 11 runs batted in. Davis
completely shut him down (Stearnes went 0-5 at the plate). Willie Wells delivered with a 3-4 performance to lead St. Louis to a 13-7 victory.

Game seven would prove to be the final game of the series as heavy rains in the Detroit area washed out the rest of the series. The St. Louis Stars claimed the Negro National League title.

Game Location Date Winning Team Score WP LP
1 St. Louis Sept 13th
St. Louis 5-4 Ted Trent Nelson Dean
2 St. Louis Sept 15th
Detroit 11-7 Willie Powell Joe Strong
3 St. Louis Sept 16th
St. Louis 7-2 Ted Trent Al Davis
4 Hamtramck (MI) Sept 17th
Detroit 5-4 Nelson Dean Slap Hensley
5 Hamtramck Sept 21st
Detroit 7-5 Willie Powell Ted Radcliffe
6 Hamtramck Sept 22nd
St. Louis 4-3 Slap Hensley Al Davis
7 Hamtramck Sept 22nd
St. Louis 13-7 Roosevelt Davis Nelson Dean

Top Hitters for the Series:
St. Louis – Willie Wells (.400), Ted Radcliffe (.357), George Giles (.346), John Russell (.333), Frog Redus (.333), Branch Russell (.292), Mule Suttles (.291) and James Bell (.280).
Detroit – Turkey Stearnes (.441), Huck Rile (.344), Spoony Palm (.322) and Crush Holloway (.313).
Leading Pitchers for the Series:
St. Louis – Ted Trent (2-0), Roosevelt Davis (1-0) and Slap Hensley (1-1).
Detroit – Willie Powell (2-0), Nelson Dean (1-2) and Al Davis (0-2).

Negro National League Champion (1930) – St. Louis Stars
   14. DL from MN Posted: August 31, 2020 at 04:39 PM (#5973434)
http://www.cnlbr.org/Portals/0/RL/Negro League Play-Off Series (1930-1939).pdf
   15. DL from MN Posted: August 31, 2020 at 04:40 PM (#5973435)
In 1930, the NNL collapsed (largely due to the death of Rube Foster) but the individual teams continued to play. The NNL regrouped for 1931, but again collapsed — this time for good and the teams were on their own. By 1932, the Great Depression had taken a severe toll on the entire country. Only a few organized Negro leagues survived and all of those were either a minor or semi-pro league. The Negro Southern League was considered the highest quality surviving league and many players (and two teams) migrated to it; it therefore became the de facto major league for the 1932 season.
   16. theorioleway Posted: September 06, 2020 at 07:12 AM (#5974751)
Having trouble being able to comment on the 2021 ballot thread... basically DL I don't have any inside info, I saw it from a BBREF press release. My assumption is that since it wasn't mentioned, the Negro League database will not be affected, although Dr. C might know better since I think he is in direct contact with them.

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