Dr C MLEs

Player Name Age Lg Pos G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR
Turkey Stearnes 33 NL CF 151 650 33 0 0 2 -2 34 3.4 20 54 5.5
Sam Bankhead 23 NL SS 142 610 7 2 0 4 8 22 2.2 19 41 4.1
Willie Wells 28 NL SS 151 650 5 1 0 6 9 20 2.1 20 41 4.1
Josh Gibson 22 NL 1B/C 112 480 22 0 0 3 -2 22 2.2 15 37 3.7
Martin Dihigo 29 NL CF 135 580 13 1 0 6 -2 19 1.9 18 37 3.7
Buck Leonard 26 NL 1B 135 580 21 0 0 2 -6 18 1.8 18 36 3.7
Cool Papa Bell 31 NL CF 151 650 13 2 0 -1 -2 12 1.2 20 32 3.3
Newt Allen 33 NL 2B 139 600 -10 0 0 13 4 8 0.9 19 27 2.8
Oscr Charleston 37 NL 1B 107 460 15 1 0 1 -4 13 1.3 14 28 2.8
Alejandro Oms 38 NL CF 93 400 14 0 0 -1 -1 12 1.2 14 26 2.6
Jud Wilson 38 NL 1B 93 400 17 0 0 0 -4 14 1.4 12 26 2.6
Mule Suttles 33 NL 1B 139 600 8 0 0 2 -6 5 0.5 19 23 2.4
George Scales 33 NL 3B 128 550 4 0 0 -3 2 3 0.3 17 20 2.1
Dick Lundy 35 NL SS 116 500 -7 0 0 4 7 4 0.4 16 19 2.0
Burnis Wright 20 NL RF 88 380 1 1 0 3 -4 0 0.0 12 12 1.2
John Beckwith 34 NL 1B 81 350 8 0 0 -3 -3 1 0.1 11 12 1.2
Biz Mackey 36 NL C 95 410 -5 0 0 1 3 -2 -0.2 13 11 1.1
Ray Dandridge 20 NL 3B 35 150 0 0 0 1 1 2 0.2 5 7 0.7
Quincy Trouppe 21 AL C 30 130 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 -0.1 4 3 0.3

Pitcher Name Age Lg G IP R RA9 lgRA9 RAA WAA pWAR Rrep RAR PA Rbat Rpos RAA bWAR WAR
Satchel Paige 27 AL 45 270 91 3.03 5.21 66 6.5 9.2 29 95 90 -8 10 2 0.2 9.4
Lazaro Salazar 21 NL 36 200 55 2.47 4.68 49 5.3 7.2 19 69 67 1 8 8 0.5 7.7
William Bell 36 NL 39 230 103 4.03 4.68 17 1.7 4.1 22 39 77 -2 9 6 0.4 4.5
Martin Dihigo 29 NL 36 200 90 4.06 4.68 14 1.4 3.5 19 33 67 1 8 9 0.6 4.0
Willie Foster 30 NL 39 230 109 4.27 4.68 11 1.1 3.5 22 33 77 -6 9 2 0.2 3.6
Webstr McDonald 34 NL 36 200 95 4.28 4.68 9 0.9 3.0 19 28 67 -7 8 1 0.0 3.0
Ray Brown 25 NL 36 240 107 4.03 3.97 -1 -0.2 2.2 20 18 80 -2 8 6 0.4 2.7
Ramon Bragana 25 NL 39 230 121 4.73 4.68 -1 -0.1 2.3 22 21 77 -3 9 6 0.4 2.6
Bill Holland 33 NL 34 190 106 5.03 4.68 -7 -0.7 1.3 18 11 63 -7 7 0 0.0 1.2
Hilton Smith 27 NL 36 200 119 5.34 4.68 -15 -1.4 0.7 19 5 67 -1 8 7 0.4 1.1
Bill Byrd 26 NL 32 170 111 5.88 4.68 -23 -2.2 -0.4 17 -6 57 -2 6 4 0.3 -0.1

As far as I can find Lazaro Salazar has no recorded innings in 1934.

1934 Prelim

1) Lou Gehrig - Monster batting season
2) Arky Vaughan - best NL player
3) Satchel Paige - best pitcher
4) Charlie Gehringer
5) Dizzy Dean
6) Mel Ott
7) Jimmie Foxx
8) Lefty Gomez
9) Carl Hubbell
10) Paul Waner

11-15) Earl Averill, Turkey Stearnes, Slim Jones, Mel Harder, Josh Gibson
16-20) Curt Davis, Ripper Collins, Hank Greenberg, Schoolboy Rowe, Billy Werber

1934 prelim







1) Lou Gehrig - Dominating bat.
2) Jimmie Foxx - Bat is better than everyone else, but clearly behind Gehrig
3) Slim Jones - Seamheads data shows him with more IP and a better RA than Paige.
4) Josh Gibson - Down from last year, but still the best position player in the Negro Leagues
5) Earl Averill
6) Charlie Gehringer
7) Arky Vaughan
8) Satchel Paige
9) Dizzy Dean - Best ML pitcher. I have Dean and Paige really close.
10) Mel Ott

11-15: Paul Waner, Turkey Stearnes, Schoolboy Rowe (best AL pitcher), Lefty Gomez, Carl Hubbell
16-20: Ripper Collins, Hank Greenberg, Jud Wilson, Webster McDonald, Mickey Cochrane

The Los Angeles Angels had a dominating season in the PCL, arguably the greatest minor league team ever. Frank Demaree was the MVP with a Triple Crown season, though he's short of my ballot. Ike Boone won an MVP for Toronto in the International League, but again it doesn't seem like it converts to a ballot-worthy season.

Salazar returned to the US play for the Cuban Stars in 1933 and 1934, but very little statistical evidence survives from this period as the Stars were solely a barnstorming team. He returned to Cuba to play in the 1934-35 winter season with the Marianao Tigres but was soon traded back to Almendares, where he blossomed into one of the premier players in the league. He hit .407 and won six games as a pitcher, finishing with a 1.64 ERA. He hit .407, and won six games as a pitcher, finishing with a 1.64 ERA. He led the league in batting, pitcher wins and won-loss percentage and was named league MVP as Almendares finished with an 18-9-1 record and another championship.

Certainly the 1934-35 season was one of the weakest in memory, as no American players participated, and both of the “eternal rivals,” Almendares and Habana, were embarrassed in a series of games against a new, powerhouse semipro squad created by the Arrechabala Company, named the Havana Club after the brand of rum they manufactured. Despite the weakened competition, Salazar’s reputation was widespread by this time; he was signed by impresario Alex Pompez to join the New York Cubans in the second incarnation of the Negro National League.

https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/lazaro-salazar/

1934 prelim:

1) Lou Gehrig - clear leader for 1934
2) Charlie Gehringer - I will take the defense plus great bat over Foxx's great-plus bat
3) Jimmie Foxx
4) Arky Vaughan - what a season for a 22 year old
5) Dizzy Dean
6) Mel Ott
7) Satchel Paige
8) Curt Davis - 30 year old rookie!
9) Lefty Gomez
10) Mel Harder

11-20: Earl Averill, Carl Hubbell, Josh Gibson, Ripper Collins, Lazaro Salazar, Hank Greenberg, Paul Waner, Schoolboy Rowe, Van Mungo, Martín Dihigo

kcgard - be careful looking at just the MLEs. I don't have MLEs for everyone, just selected players. It's pretty clear the evidence says Slim Jones is a better choice
for your top 20 (better WAR than Paige) than the poorly documented Salazar for 1934.

11-15) Earl Averill, Turkey Stearnes

I feel pretty good about this comp. If you like Averill this season, you should like Stearnes.

How complete is the Seamheads data, and is that the data used to create the MLEs? I struggle sometimes with how to balance Seamheads stats with the MLEs because I don't know how complete the Seamheads data is. Clearly for Salazar it's almost entirely incomplete, for Jones it's nearly complete, for Paige it's somewhere in the middle but who knows where. Based on Seamheads I would certainly replace Salazar with Jones. I wonder why Jones doesn't get MLEs? Lots of questions.

How complete is the Seamheads data

Pretty complete for league games. Not as much for barnstorming games.

Clearly for Salazar it's almost entirely incomplete, for Jones it's nearly complete, for Paige it's somewhere in the middle

I'd say Paige's league games are well documented but he had a lot of barnstorming appearances that he pitched in on top of his league games that are not accounted for. He also had a tendency to jump teams for more money and/or hold out for more money.

The next season Greenlee organized a new Negro National League, which survived for 16 years. Despite Greenlee's efforts to control his biggest star, Paige followed his own schedule and was often late to games that he was scheduled to pitch. In August, he jumped the Crawfords, accepting an offer from Neil Churchill's North Dakota semi-pro team, the Bismarcks (sometimes known as the "Bismarck Churchills" today), of $400 and a late model car for just one month's work. It was Paige's first experience playing with an integrated team in the United States. He helped Bismarck beat their local rivals in Jamestown, who were also featuring a Negro league ace pitcher, Barney Brown. Paige was unapologetic when he returned to Pittsburgh in September to help the Crawfords win the second-half championship. Paige was snubbed by other Negro league players and fans when he was not selected for the first ever East–West All-Star Game.[41]

1934 was perhaps the best season of Paige's career, as he went 14–2 in league games while allowing 2.16 runs per game, recording 144 strikeouts, and giving up only 26 walks.[23][42] On July 4, Paige threw his second no-hitter, this time against the Homestead Grays. He struck out 17, and only a first-inning walk to future Hall of Famer Buck Leonard and an error in the fourth inning prevented it from being a perfect game. Leonard, unnerved by the rising swoop of the ball, repeatedly asked the umpire to check the ball for scuffing. When the umpire removed one ball from play, Paige hollered, "You may as well thrown 'em all out 'cause they're all gonna jump like that."[43]

The Denver Post conducted an annual baseball tournament (sometimes known as the "Little World Series") that attracted semi-pro and independent professional teams from across the country. In 1934 it was open, for the first time, to black players. Greenlee leased Paige to the Colored House of David, a prominent barnstorming team of white men who represented a religious commune and wore beards. Their manager was Hall of Fame pitcher Grover Cleveland Alexander. Paige pitched shutouts in his first two starts, striking out 14 and 18. The final, championship game was his third start in five days and he faced the Kansas City Monarchs—at the time an independent, barnstorming team—who were participating in the tournament with a lineup augmented by Negro league stars Turkey Stearnes and Sam Bankhead. Paige faced Chet Brewer before a crowd of 11,120. Paige won the pitchers' duel 2–1, striking out 12 Monarchs for a tournament total of 44 strikeouts in 28 innings. The 1934 tournament was Paige's first major exposure in front of the white press.[44]

Paige received his first East–West All Star Game selection in 1934. Playing for the East, Paige came in during the sixth inning with a man on second and the score tied 0–0, and proceeded to strike out Alec Radcliffe and retire Turkey Stearnes and Mule Suttles on soft fly balls. The East scored one run in the top of the eighth and Paige held the West scoreless the rest of the way, giving him his first All-Star Game victory.[45]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satchel_Paige

I wonder why Jones doesn't get MLEs?

That one's easy. The MLEs were done for players who had the most impressive careers. Jones was terrific in 1934 but had a very short career due to drinking.

In 1934, Slim had his one great year after joining the Philadelphia Stars. He went 21-7 with a 2.23 RA and 112 strikeouts, leading the Stars to the second-half pennant. The 21-year-old was second to Satchel Paige in RA and strikeouts and led the NNL in victories. The youngster got the start for the East in the 1934 East-West Game and pitched three shutout innings, fanning four and allowing one hit and one walk; the East won 1-0.

In September, promoters arranged for a Paige-Jones matchup at Yankee Stadium. Monte Irvin, who later played in the Shot Heard 'Round the World game, called the matchup the best baseball game he ever saw. Jones led 1-0 entering the bottom of the 7th but an error by Dick Seay and singles by Chester Williams and Jimmie Crutchfield tied the game, which was called after 9 due to darkness with a 1-1 finale. A rematch was seen by another huge crowd (35,000 the first game, 30,000 the next) a week later. Jones again allowed only five hits to the Pittsburgh Crawfords, but lost 3-1 as Paige only allowed two hits.

In the post-season, Jones lost one game in relief on a hit by Mule Suttles in the 9th, then lost a 3-0 duel to Ted Trent in game two. With Philadelphia having evened the series at 3 games each, Jones faced Sug Cornelius in the finale on October 12. Jones pitched a five-hit shutout and doubled in a run in the 2-0 victory.

To cap his wonderful year, Slim topped another pitcher coming off a great campaign, Dizzy Dean, in an exhibition.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Slim_Jones

It looks like the Crawfords and East/West game stats are included in Paige's Seamheads stats but not the 1934 Denver tournament. If you're docking Paige for less bulk, add in the 44 Ks in 28 IP. I don't know if the Paige/Jones matchups at Yankee Stadium are included in league stats.

1934 World Series

Player Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS E WPA cWPA
Ripper Collins# 7 30 4 11 1 0 0 3 1 2 .367 .387 .400 .787 0 1 1 0.04 10.12%
Dizzy Dean 4 12 3 3 2 0 0 1 0 3 .250 .250 .417 .667 0 0 0 0.04 4.86%
Paul Dean 2 6 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 1 0.02 0.97%
Joe Medwick 7 29 4 11 0 1 1 5 1 7 .379 .400 .552 .952 0 0 0 0.06 -2.21%

Tommy Bridges 3 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 .143 .250 .143 .393 0 0 0 -0.09 -6.67%
Mickey Cochrane* 7 28 2 6 1 0 0 1 4 3 .214 .313 .250 .563 0 0 0 -0.09 -3.28%
Charlie Gehringer* 7 29 5 11 1 0 1 2 3 0 .379 .438 .517 .955 1 0 3 0.53 20.17%
Hank Greenberg 7 28 4 9 2 1 1 7 4 9 .321 .406 .571 .978 1 0 1 -0.03 -0.31%
Billy Rogell# 7 29 3 8 1 0 0 4 1 4 .276 .300 .310 .610 1 0 3 0.16 6.93%
Schoolboy Rowe 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 -0.34 -13.10%

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP WPA cWPA
Dizzy Dean 3 3 1.73 2 1 0 2 26.0 20 6 5 5 17 0.962 0.45 25.78%
Paul Dean 2 2 1.00 2 0 0 2 18.0 15 4 2 7 11 1.222 0.87 36.23% 

Tommy Bridges 3 2 3.63 1 1 0 1 17.1 21 9 7 1 12 1.269 0.44 26.98%
Schoolboy Rowe 3 2 2.95 1 1 0 2 21.1 19 8 7 0 12 0.891 0.62 9.51%

Here’s Brock Hanke’s ballot for 1934. Again, if I don’t get anything posted to the Ballot Thread, please just transfer this over. As in 1933, the “pitcher disconnect”, where WAR has pitchers ranked much higher than Win Shares does, is in full swing. Pitcher Curt Davis, for example, ranks 4th in WAR, but 21st in Win Shares. Outfielder Wally Berger ranks 9th in Win Shares, but 22nd in WAR. Neither player made my ballot. A league difference note: At this time, there was more hitting going on in the AL than in the NL. Of the top ten players by WAR, four are in the NL, and three of those were pitchers (Mel Ott was the position player). In Win Shares, the top ten split 6/4 in favor of the NL, and only two of the NL guys were pitchers (Dean and Hubbell). The position players were Ott, Arky Vaughan, Ripper Collins and Wally Berger. IMO, Win Shares has a much better list than WAR does.

Trivia Note: You will sometimes read that Cardinal 1B Ripper Collins, who hit 35 homers in 1934 (leading the league), woud have hit 70 if the ballpark hadn’t added that gigantic screen on top of the RF wall. There WAS a gigantic screen – I should know, since I started going to ballgames in the park in 1954, and the park was abandoned in early 1966. The main effect of the screen was to turn homers into doubles (see Stan Musial’s stats), although a certain number of the fly balls that hit the screen would have been caught in a larger park. But let’s get realistic. Collins only hit 40 doubles and 12 triples the whole year, and only played half his games in Sportsman’s Park. And he was a switch-hitter, so RF would not have been his pull field a lot of the time. There is no chance that he hit the screen 35 times where the hit would have been a homer if the screen hadn’t been there. For him to do that, he would have had to have been the worst away-park hitter of all time (well, maybe Gavy Cravath or Fred Luderus).

Enough of that. Here’s the list:

1. Lou Gehrig
2. Dizzy Dean
3. Chralie Gehringer
4. Mel Ott
5. Jimmie Foxx
6. Carl Hubbell
7. Arky Vaughan
8. Satchel Paige (I admit to being conservative about Negro Leaguers)
9. Lefty Gomez
10. Ripper Collins

I'm having more trouble than usual getting into the 1934 ballot thread so please count this as my final ballot

Final ballot-no postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Pennant-contender
1. Lou Gehrig
2. Jimmie Foxx
3. Dizzy Dean
4. Charlie Gehringer
5. Lefty Gomez
6. Mel Ott
7. Carl Hubbell --edges out Arky due to playing for a Pennant-contender
8. Arky Vaughn
9. Satchel Paige
10.Mel Harder --just ahead of teammates Averill & Trotsky for final spot

1934 Prelim Ballot

1. Lou Gehrig, 1B, New York Yankees: 207 OPS+ and 189 RC lead MLB
2. Jimmie Foxx, 1B, Philadelphia Athletics: 186 OPS+ and 159 are 2nd to Gehrig; +8 fielding
3. Slim Jones, P, Philadelphia Stars: Negro Leagues precursor to Mark Fidrych and Herb Score with an eye-popping 295 ERA+
4. Josh Gibson, C, Pittsburgh Crawfords: 187 OPS+ though only an average defensive catcher
5. Charlie Gehringer, 2B, Detroit Tigers: 149 OPS+ and +11 fielding from the keystone
6. Carl Hubbell, P, New York Giants: 168 ERA+ leads NL, 313 is a close second
7. Satchel Paige, P, Pittsburgh Crawfords: 262 ERA+ in 149 recorded innings
8. Turkey Stearnes, CF, Chicago American Giants: 201 OPS+ and +8 fielding in CF
9. Lefty Gomez, P, New York Yankees: 176 ERA+ and 281 IP lead AL
10. Dizzy Dean, P, St. Louis Cardinals: 159 ERA+ in 311 IP

11. Mel Ott, RF, New York Giants: top position player in the NL with 168 OPS+
12. Arky Vaughan, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Ripper Collins, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
14. Earl Averill, CF, Cleveland Indians
15. Hank Greenberg, 1B, Detroit Tigers
16. Mel Harder, P, Cleveland Indians
17. Curt Davis, P, Philadelphia Phillies
18. Hal Trosky, 1B, Cleveland Indians
19. Paul Waner, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates
20. Chester Williams, 2B, Pittsburgh Crawfords

Not 1934 related but thinking about MMP going forward. I'm interested in extending the MMP from 1893-1900 after we finish voting on 1939. After seeing the discussion in the HoM thread I am thinking of reducing the number of ballot slots for this time period from 10 to 8 to account for the smaller number of teams (12 instead of 16). If we assume 1 ballot slot for every 2 teams that still gives a couple slots for Player's League, American Association, Western League etc.

8 slots makes sense for 1893-1900. We might want to think of 10 again if we do 1882-91.

I don't have any plans to do elections before 1893. It's been a decade long project already.