Dr C MLEs

Player Name Age Lg Pos G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR
Willie Wells 30 NL SS 150 650 15 1 0 6 9 31 3.1 20 51 5.2
Josh Gibson 24 NL 1B 138 600 33 0 0 3 -6 30 3.0 19 49 4.9
Buck Leonard 28 NL 1B 134 580 28 0 0 2 -6 25 2.5 18 43 4.4
Martin Dihigo 31 NL CF 136 590 14 1 0 6 -2 19 2.0 18 38 3.8
Sam Bankhead 25 NL SS 145 630 -1 2 0 4 9 14 1.4 20 34 3.4
Burnis Wright 22 NL CF 129 560 18 1 0 -1 -2 16 1.6 17 34 3.4
Newt Allen 35 NL 2B 122 530 0 0 0 12 4 16 1.6 17 32 3.3
Lazaro Salazar 23 NL CF 141 610 11 1 0 1 -2 11 1.1 21 32 3.3
Turkey Stearnes 35 NL CF 129 560 13 0 0 2 -2 13 1.3 17 31 3.1
Mule Suttles 35 NL 1B 104 450 16 0 0 2 -4 13 1.3 14 27 2.8
George Scales 35 NL 3B 131 570 8 0 0 -3 2 7 0.7 18 25 2.5
Cool Papa Bell 33 NL CF 129 560 5 2 0 -1 -2 4 0.4 17 21 2.2
Quincy Trouppe 23 AL C 72 320 10 0 0 0 2 12 1.1 10 22 2.0
Ray Dandridge 22 NL 3B 92 400 1 0 0 3 2 6 0.6 12 18 1.8
Jud Wilson 40 NL 1B 46 200 3 0 0 0 -2 2 0.2 6 8 0.8
Biz Mackey 38 NL C 53 230 -3 0 0 0 2 -1 -0.1 7 6 0.6
Oscr Charleston 39 NL 1B 55 240 -2 1 0 1 -2 -3 -0.3 7 5 0.5


Pitcher Name Age Lg G IP R RA9 lgRA9 RAA WAA pWAR Rrep RAR PA Rbat Rpos RAA bWAR WAR
Bill Holland 35 NL 31 200 37 1.68 4.71 67 7.4 9.3 20 87 67 -8 8 0 0.0 9.3
Bill Byrd 28 NL 35 200 61 2.73 4.71 44 4.7 6.6 20 63 67 -3 8 5 0.3 6.9
Martin Dihigo 31 NL 35 200 66 2.96 4.71 39 4.1 6.1 20 58 67 1 8 9 0.6 6.7
Ramon Bragana 27 NL 38 250 97 3.49 4.71 34 3.6 6.1 24 58 83 -3 10 6 0.4 6.5
William Bell 38 NL 35 200 73 3.27 4.71 32 3.4 5.3 20 52 67 -2 8 6 0.4 5.7
Lazaro Salazar 23 NL 35 140 35 2.25 4.71 38 3.9 5.2 14 52 47 1 5 6 0.4 5.6
Satchel Paige 29 AL 42 270 149 4.98 5.78 24 2.1 5.1 32 57 90 -8 10 3 0.2 5.2
Hilton Smith 29 NL 42 270 130 4.32 4.71 12 1.2 4.0 26 38 90 -1 10 9 0.6 4.6
Ray Brown 27 NL 35 220 98 4.02 4.71 17 1.7 4.0 22 38 73 -2 7 6 0.4 4.4 
Willie Foster 32 NL 33 170 67 3.57 4.71 22 2.2 3.9 17 38 57 -5 7 2 0.1 4.0
Roy Welmaker 22 NL 35 200 97 4.34 4.71 8 0.8 2.9 20 28 67 -6 8 2 0.1 3.0
Webstr McDonald 36 NL 42 270 147 4.91 4.71 -6 -0.6 2.2 26 20 90 -9 10 1 0.1 2.3

Two years later, in 1936, when the American Giants' management had financial difficulties, Wells left Chicago for the Newark Eagles, where he joined Ray Dandridge, providing a pair of Gold Glove winners on the left side of the infield. Opponents threw at Wells so much that he became a pioneer in wearing a batting helmet. When Baltimore's ace spitballer Bill Byrd hit him in the temple, knocking him unconscious, he was advised not to play for the remainder of the series. Disregarding the doctor's advice, he played in the next contest, wearing a modified construction worker's hard hat.

In 1936, Paige returned to Pittsburgh where Greenlee acquiesced to Paige's salary demands and gave him a $600-per-month contract, by far the highest in the Negro leagues.[58] In games for which complete box scores are available, Paige went 5–0, allowed 3.21 runs per game, and struck out 47 in 47​2⁄3 innings.[23] At the end of the season, Tom Wilson arranged with the other NNL owners to assemble an all-star team that would enter the lucrative Denver Post tournament. The team included Paige, Josh Gibson, Cool Papa Bell, Leroy Matlock, Buck Leonard, Felton Snow, Bill Wright and Sammy Hughes. They swept the tournament in seven games to win the $5,000 prize, with Paige winning three of them. In the title game against an overmatched semi-pro team from Borger, Texas, Paige pitched a 7–0 shutout, striking out 18. The Negro league all-stars then barnstormed, playing a series against a team of major leaguers led by Rogers Hornsby. One match-up featured Paige facing the 17-year-old Bob Feller, who had just finished a half-season with the Cleveland Indians. Each pitched three innings and gave up one hit, with Feller striking out eight and Paige seven. Later in the game, the Negro league team pulled out a win.[59]

1936 Prelim
1) Carl Hubbell - terrific pitching season (though not as good as 1933), good in the World Series also
2) Arky Vaughan - great bat for a SS
3) Josh Gibson - best NGL player
4) Lou Gehrig - best hitter
5) Lefty Grove - Best rate stats pitching but not as many innings as Hubbell
6) Mel Ott
7) Charlie Gehringer
8) Satchel Paige
9) Paul Waner
10) Mule Suttles - best NGL bat

11-15) Martin Dihigo, Billy Herman, Luke Appling, Wes Ferrell, Joe Medwick
16-20) Bill Dickey, Dizzy Dean, Bill Byrd, Harry Kelley, Johnny Allen
21-25) Earl Averill, Jimmie Foxx, Leroy Matlock, Bill Holland, Dick Bartell
26-30) Willie Wells, Dolph Camilli, Tommy Bridges, Van Lingle Mungo, Gus Suhr

Best pitching seasons in the history of the MMP project by my point score

1913 W Johnson 22.6
1920 Alexander 22.2
1985 Gooden 21.5
1995 Maddux 21.4
1972 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6
1918 W Johnson 20.4
1923 D Luque 20.2
1928 Vance 19.9
1997 Clemens 19.9
1924 Vance 19.6
1968 Gibson 19.5
2000 P Martinez 19.5
2009 Greinke 19.1
1902 Waddell 19.1
1912 W Johnson 19.1
1921 Faber 19.0
1944 Trout 19.0
1945 Newhouser 18.8
1963 Koufax 18.7
1933 Hubbell 18.7
1946 Feller 18.6
1919 W Johnson 18.5
1972 Seaver 18.3
2004 Santana 18.2
1971 Seaver 18.0
1999 P Martinez 18.0
1971 Wood 17.9
2015 Greinke 17.9
1901 Young 17.8
1916 Alexander 17.8
1978 Guidry 17.7
1972 Perry 17.7
1995 R Johnson 17.7
1980 Carlton 17.5
1953 Roberts 17.5
1936 Hubbell 17.5

I really don't understand those MLEs for Holland and Byrd compared to Paige. Paige was striking out nearly 2x per inning compared to Byrd and Holland.

DL, it clearly is because of the RA/9 compared to league RA/9. Paige is also projected to a lot more innings, but according to the projection, not particularly great in runs allowed compared to league, while Byrd and Holland are monstrous there. The projected WAR seems to be driven almost entirely by run prevention compared to league, with the real "projection" part being playing time and how to convert league quality.

I don't get it in the context of 1936 though.

Pitcher RA IP RA9
Paige 37 91.2 3.63
Holland 34 79.1 3.86
Byrd 52 99 4.72

Paige is clearly better than either of them in 1936. Is there some huge park effect I am leaving out?

prelim

1) Lefty Grove - WAR says the environment (opposition + defense + parks) was MASSIVELY more difficult for Grove than it was for Hubbell, to the tune of 22 RAA despite the innings disadvantage
2) Lou Gehrig
3) Carl Hubbell
4) Charlie Gehringer - I want his all around play over Ott's superior bat
5) Mel Ott
6) Arky Vaughan
7) Josh Gibson
8) Dizzy Dean
9) Luke Appling
10) Paul Waner

11-20) Earl Averill, Bill Holland, Satchel Paige, Billy Herman, Van Mungo, Wes Ferrell, Martin Dihigo, Joe Medwick, Johnny Allen, Willie Wells

I don't know why the MLEs are that far off between Paige and Byrd/Holland. Holland was slightly better run prevention rate wise in the Seamheads data, but not the extent expressed in the MLEs.

Lefty Grove - WAR says the environment (opposition + defense + parks) was MASSIVELY more difficult for Grove than it was for Hubbell, to the tune of 22 RAA despite the innings disadvantage

About half of this difference (on a per-inning basis) is just straight up league context - the AL scored an extra run per game compared to the NL in '36, a difference that was typical of the decade.

Hi. This is Brock Hanke.

Well, I’ve been a busy idiot. I’ve finished my 1936 ballot, but that was a side effect of looking up the Win Shares for all the top WAR performers (everybody with a WAR of 4.2 or more). Right after the ballot, I’ve listed all those players with their Win Shares numbers, in order of WAR, from the great Win Shares spreadsheet that Michael Brinkley sent me. As for my ballot, I’ve done what I said I would: Taken the Win Shares ordinal and multiplied it by two and then added in the WAR ordinal. The most serious disconnet is Lefty Grove. WAR has him first, and by a significant margin. Win Shares has him 11th. I don’t know where the disconnect comes from, but it might be from a difference about how powerful Strikeouts are. Lefty Grove comes equipped with Strikeouts.

The Ballot already:

1. Lou Gehrig
2. Carl Hubbell
3. Mel Ott
4. Arky Vaughan
5. Charlie Gehringer
6. Josh Gibson
7. Dizzy Dean
8. Lefty Grove
9. Joe Medwick
10. Paul Waner

The Win Shares List (If you want the Win Shares for someone who is not on this list, just comment, and I’ll look it up).

Lefty Grove 29
Carl Hubbell 35
Lou Gehrig 38
Arky Vaughan 35
Mel Ott 37
Charlie Gehrigner 35
Dizzy Dean 31
Johnny Allen 23
Luke Appling 29
Billy Herman 30
Joe Medwick 34
Paul Waner 32
Earl Averill 28
Wes Ferrell 26
Van Lingle Mungo 24
Tommy Bridges 26
Dick Bartell 24
Harry Kelley 19
Bill Dickey 25
Dolph Camilli 21
Harlond Clift 23
Danny MacFayden 23
Jimmie Foxx 26
Tony Cuccinello 22
Gus Suhr 25
Ed Brandt 17
Johnny Mize 24
Frank Demarree 25
Larry French 19
Red Rolfe 24
John Stone 21
Ivy Andrews 14
Joe DiMaggio 25
Odell Hale 21
Claude Passeau 15
Monte Pearson 18
Zeke Bonura 24
Gene Moore 21
George Selkirk 21
Red Lucas 15
Schoolboy Rowe 20
Wally Berger 22

On a different note, I am more than willing to continue the discussion about WAR from last year. I don't know if anyone else is interested, or if everyone is just sick of it. A couple of comments would help me make a decision. I don't want to annoy everyone.

On a different note, I am more than willing to continue the discussion about WAR from last year. I don't know if anyone else is interested, or if everyone is just sick of it. A couple of comments would help me make a decision. I don't want to annoy everyone.

It's the discussion thread. Feel free to discuss things.

Baltimore's ace spitballer Bill Byrd

How to treat these MLE's since the spitball was illegal in MLB? Byrd would not have been "grandfathered" in like Burleigh Grimes.

https://www.downthedrive.com/2020/8/22/21396997/pitching-from-the-shoulders-up-spitball-pitching-in-the-negro-leagues

On a different note, I am more than willing to continue the discussion about WAR from last year. I don't know if anyone else is interested, or if everyone is just sick of it. A couple of comments would help me make a decision. I don't want to annoy everyone.

I feel like the ball was basically left in your court in the last thread. I'll quote a couple of comments that addressed your complaints about the position adjustment in WAR, specifically regarding Rickey/Raines/Stargell/Brock/BWilliams/Yaz:

kcgard2 (comment 22):

These guys did not have equal playing time in the corner OF, although you are glossing over that when trying to make a point about pWAR. Rickey had 400 fewer innings in the corner outfield, and 2600 more innings in CF than Brock did. That is a pWAR swing of roughly 3 wins. Raines had 3800 fewer corner outfield innings than Brock did, again a pWAR value of roughly 3 wins. Just accounting for their playing time gets them basically to a rounding error with Brock on pWAR.

Me (comment 25):

Comparing Rickey's Rpos to Yaz and calling the position adjustment nonsense is silly. Games by defensive position for those two in particular:

Yaz:
LF 1912
1B 765
DH 412
CF 165
3B 33
RF 8

Rickey:
LF 2421
CF 446
DH 149
RF 27

That's almost 1200 extra games at 1B/DH for Yaz, and not quite 300 extra games in CF for Rickey. Which would explain a lot of difference in position adjustment.

Eric J - I absolutely agree with what you posted. The problem is that I CAN'T compute the pWAR for any one defensive position. The data is not there, at least, not that I can find. There are splits by defensive position, but they don't include oWAR, dWAR or fWAR. I need all three to compute pWAR. I poked around in BB-Ref for a while, looking for the data, but I can't claim that I've scoured the entire site. If you DO know where I can find oWAR, dWAR and fWAR divided by defensive position, just let me know. I'll redo the list immediately.

DL - Thanks for the permission. I'll put together a comment in the next day or so. I am very interested in seeing how WAR works. BTW there is a reason that I don't just start with the Runs, as you suggested. I'd get lost in the trees and lose track of the forest. My memory says that you are involved in devising at least one of the WAR systems, but I'm not sure of even that. If it's true, then your and my approaches have to be different. You have to deal with fixing bugs or allowing for new data (One thing I really DO like about WAR is that it counts Baserunning Runs as well as Hitting Runs. This allows you to see just how far off simplistic stats like OPS+ are from reality. One of my arguments for Lou Brock is that he has a LOT of Baserunning Runs, but OPS, with or without the +, don't account for them at all. I realize that part of this is a data problem - 20 years ago, the data for individual baserunning attempts did not exist. But it's good to see just how much of Brock's offensive value is missing in OPS+, because so much of it was in the baserunning.). That means that you have to deal with the trees. I'm trying to deconstruct the system, so I have to start with the payoff stat, which is, of course, fWAR, and work down from there.

This suits my personality and talents very well, since I am essentially an engineer when it comes to math. I set up word problems; I don't prove theorems or do complex calculations. The only Bill James Kool-Aid that I drink comes from that. Bill is very, very good at looking at problems and setting up the math approaches that will work. In that way, he thinks like me, so I use his stuff a lot. But my problems with Linear Weights, say, don't have anything to do with Bill. They have a lot to do with The Hidden Game of Baseball, published in 1984, which describes the Linear Weights process as it existed then. I saw the zero-point-set-at-.500 problem immediately. I also realized that, if you have a Replacement Rate at all (Linear Weights does not, nor does Win Shares), then you are stuck with that Replacement Rate as your zero point when it comes to the math. That's why the "dWAR uses .500 as the Replacement Rate for defense" strikes me as impossibly wrong, and it's also why I call that "The Linear Weights Mistake."

My memory says that you are involved in devising at least one of the WAR systems, but I'm not sure of even that.

That's Dan Rosenheck, not me.

I love the (unintentional?) hilarity in BBRef's description of Win Shares. The final sentence:

Win Shares can be used to answer many questions, such as "who were Player X's teammates?", or to compile a list of managers and their players.

seems like the perfect jab at describing what Win Shares is good for. Sorry, I know I'm letting my personal preferences color that reading.

BTW Brock, the full yearly positional adjustment by position can be found in the chart at bottom of this link:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml

Note that the way to apply this is position_adjustment * innings / 1350 (except for pitchers, but they are also described in that link).

kcgard2 - Thanks for the info. I'll have to check to see if I can get "the full yearly positional adjustment by position" broken out for individual players. If so, I'll be able to come up with the data I need.

1936 ballot:

1. Carl Hubbell - The difference between Hubbell and the next-best pitcher is quite a bit wider than between Gehrig and the next best hitter.
2. Lou Gehrig - Best position player, pretty clearly. Just falls a little behind Hubbell's great season
3. Josh Gibson - Best Negro League player (again)
4. Earl Averill - Great bat at a premium position, even if Averill was not a top-notch defender
5. Arky Vaughan - Similar story to Averill
6. Mel Ott
7. Luke Appling
8. Wes Ferrell - Once again, his bat lifts him above similar (sometimes better) pitchers
9. Leroy Matlock - Best NgL pitcher
10. Lefty Grove - On pure pitching, probably would have beaten out Ferrell for best AL pitcher.

Others: Dolph Camilli, Jimmie Foxx, Paul Waner, Bill Holland, Satchel Paige, Charlie Gehringer, Bill Dickey, Dizzy Dean, Johnny Allen

1936 World Series

Player Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS E WPA cWPA
Frankie Crosetti 6 26 5 7 2 0 0 3 3 5 .269 .345 .346 .691 0 0 2 0.15 3.28%
Bill Dickey 6 25 5 3 0 0 1 5 3 4 .120 .214 .240 .454 0 0 1 -0.39 -10.73%
Joe DiMaggio 6 26 3 9 3 0 0 3 1 3 .346 .370 .462 .832 0 0 1 -0.31 -7.87%
Lou Gehrig 6 24 5 7 1 0 2 7 3 2 .292 .393 .583 .976 0 1 0 -0.01 2.02%
Red Rolfe 6 25 5 10 0 0 0 4 3 1 .400 .464 .400 .864 0 1 1 0.30 12.13%
George Selkirk 6 24 6 8 0 1 2 3 4 4 .333 .429 .667 1.095 0 1 1 0.07 4.08%

Dick Bartell 6 21 5 8 3 0 1 3 4 4 .381 .480 .667 1.147 0 0 1 0.29 13.24%
Mel Ott_ 6 23 4 7 2 0 1 3 3 1 .304 .385 .522 .906 0 0 1 0.13 8.75%

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP WPA cWPA
Monte Pearson 1 1 2.00 1 0 0 1 9.0 7 2 2 2 7 1.000 0.39 13.74%
Red Ruffing 2 2 5.14 0 1 0 1 14.0 16 10 8 5 12 1.500 -0.11 -3.18%

Carl Hubbell 2 2 2.25 1 1 0 1 16.0 15 5 4 2 10 1.063 0.37 10.26%

Hi, guys. I need to let you have an update on my research of WAR. I took KCGuard2's challenge, and looked at WAR's Positional Adjustment system. I don't think that I've seen such a horror show in all my days of sabermetrics. Unless there are REALLY HUGE things that I just haven't found yet, it will take me about 5 comments (BTF limits comments by length) to go through just how bad this stuff is. Since the 1936 ballot deadline is coming up, I'm going to save this for the 1937 discussion thread, because I will get it done by then. Sorry about that. I had NO idea how badly I would respond to what I've seen so far.

Final ballot-no postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Pennant contender

1. Lou Gehrig
2. Carl Hubbell just edges out teammate Ott for top NL
3. Mel Ott
4. Charlie Gehringer
5. Arky Vaughan
6. Lefty Grove
7. Ducky Medwick
8. Josh Gibson
9. Earl Averill
10.Bill Dickey catcher bonus helps but even though didn’t play a ton of games ranked 5th in AL games caught

only an hour left

i'm just finishing up now, should be in by 4:30