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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Friday, February 26, 2021Most Meritorious Player: 1936 DiscussionThe New York Yankees defeated the New York Giants in the World Series 4 games to 2. The Pittsburgh Crawfords were the best team in the Negro National League. Vote for 10. Player bWAR Arky Vaughan 8.1 Lou Gehrig 9.7 Mel Ott 8.0 Charlie Gehringer 7.9 Paul Waner 7.1 Billy Herman 7.1 Luke Appling 7.2 Joe Medwick 7.1 Earl Averill 6.9 Jimmie Foxx 5.7 Dolph Camilli 5.9 Dick Bartell 6.3 Gus Suhr 5.3 Harlond Clift 5.8 Johnny Mize 5.0 Red Rolfe 4.9 Tony Cuccinello 5.6 Bill Dickey 5.9 Odell Hale 4.5 Frankie Crosetti 3.9 Frank Demaree 4.9 Wally Berger 4.2 John Stone 4.8 Joe DiMaggio 4.6 Zeke Bonura 4.3 George Selkirk 4.2 Lyn Lary 2.2 Gene Moore 4.2 Hal Trosky 4.0 Gabby Hartnett 3.3 Josh Gibson 3.8 Martin Dihigo 2.8 Turkey Stearnes 2.2 Lazaro Salazar 2.1 Ray Brown 2.1 Sam Bankhead 1.9 Mule Suttles 1.9 Buck Leonard 1.6 Oscar Charleston 1.3 Jud Wilson 1.2 Willard Brown 1.0 Cool Papa Bell 1.0 Pitcher bWAR Carl Hubbell 9.7 Lefty Grove 11.2 Wes Ferrell 6.8 Dizzy Dean 7.3 Harry Kelley 6.2 Johnny Allen 7.3 Tommy Bridges 6.4 Van Lingle Mungo 6.6 Danny MacFayden 5.7 Red Ruffing 3.8 Monte Pearson 4.4 Ed Brandt 5.2 Bucky Walters 4.1 Larry French 4.9 Ivy Andrews 4.6 Pete Appleton 3.8 Schoolboy Rowe 4.2 Red Lucas 4.2 Bill Lee 4.0 Claude Passeau 4.4 Satchel Paige 2.7 Leroy Matlock 3.1 Bill Byrd 3.0 Bill Holland 2.8 Jim Willis 2.6 Henry McHenry 2.1 Leon Day 2.1 |
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(35 - 4:10pm, Jun 02) Last: bjhanke Reranking Shortstops Ballot (11 - 10:03am, Jun 01) Last: DL from MN 2024 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion (118 - 4:10pm, May 30) Last: Kiko Sakata Cal Ripken, Jr. (15 - 12:42am, May 18) Last: The Honorable Ardo New Eligibles Year by Year (996 - 12:23pm, May 12) Last: cookiedabookie Reranking Shortstops: Discussion Thread (67 - 6:46pm, May 07) Last: cookiedabookie Reranking Centerfielders: Results (20 - 10:31am, Apr 28) Last: cookiedabookie Reranking Center Fielders Ballot (20 - 9:30am, Apr 06) Last: DL from MN Ranking Center Fielders in the Hall of Merit - Discussion Thread (77 - 5:45pm, Apr 05) Last: Esteban Rivera Reranking Right Fielders: Results (34 - 2:55am, Mar 30) Last: bjhanke 2023 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion (376 - 10:42am, Mar 07) Last: Dr. Chaleeko Reranking Right Fielders: Ballot (21 - 5:20pm, Mar 01) Last: DL from MN Ranking Right Fielders in the Hall of Merit - Discussion thread (71 - 9:47pm, Feb 28) Last: Guapo Dobie Moore (239 - 10:40am, Feb 11) Last: Mike Webber Ranking Left Fielders in the Hall of Merit - Discussion thread (96 - 12:21pm, Feb 08) Last: DL from MN |
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1. DL from MN Posted: February 26, 2021 at 01:47 PM (#6006897)1) Carl Hubbell - terrific pitching season (though not as good as 1933), good in the World Series also
2) Arky Vaughan - great bat for a SS
3) Josh Gibson - best NGL player
4) Lou Gehrig - best hitter
5) Lefty Grove - Best rate stats pitching but not as many innings as Hubbell
6) Mel Ott
7) Charlie Gehringer
8) Satchel Paige
9) Paul Waner
10) Mule Suttles - best NGL bat
11-15) Martin Dihigo, Billy Herman, Luke Appling, Wes Ferrell, Joe Medwick
16-20) Bill Dickey, Dizzy Dean, Bill Byrd, Harry Kelley, Johnny Allen
21-25) Earl Averill, Jimmie Foxx, Leroy Matlock, Bill Holland, Dick Bartell
26-30) Willie Wells, Dolph Camilli, Tommy Bridges, Van Lingle Mungo, Gus Suhr
1913 W Johnson 22.6
1920 Alexander 22.2
1985 Gooden 21.5
1995 Maddux 21.4
1972 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6
1918 W Johnson 20.4
1923 D Luque 20.2
1928 Vance 19.9
1997 Clemens 19.9
1924 Vance 19.6
1968 Gibson 19.5
2000 P Martinez 19.5
2009 Greinke 19.1
1902 Waddell 19.1
1912 W Johnson 19.1
1921 Faber 19.0
1944 Trout 19.0
1945 Newhouser 18.8
1963 Koufax 18.7
1933 Hubbell 18.7
1946 Feller 18.6
1919 W Johnson 18.5
1972 Seaver 18.3
2004 Santana 18.2
1971 Seaver 18.0
1999 P Martinez 18.0
1971 Wood 17.9
2015 Greinke 17.9
1901 Young 17.8
1916 Alexander 17.8
1978 Guidry 17.7
1972 Perry 17.7
1995 R Johnson 17.7
1980 Carlton 17.5
1953 Roberts 17.5
1936 Hubbell 17.5
Pitcher RA IP RA9
Paige 37 91.2 3.63
Holland 34 79.1 3.86
Byrd 52 99 4.72
Paige is clearly better than either of them in 1936. Is there some huge park effect I am leaving out?
1) Lefty Grove - WAR says the environment (opposition + defense + parks) was MASSIVELY more difficult for Grove than it was for Hubbell, to the tune of 22 RAA despite the innings disadvantage
2) Lou Gehrig
3) Carl Hubbell
4) Charlie Gehringer - I want his all around play over Ott's superior bat
5) Mel Ott
6) Arky Vaughan
7) Josh Gibson
8) Dizzy Dean
9) Luke Appling
10) Paul Waner
11-20) Earl Averill, Bill Holland, Satchel Paige, Billy Herman, Van Mungo, Wes Ferrell, Martin Dihigo, Joe Medwick, Johnny Allen, Willie Wells
About half of this difference (on a per-inning basis) is just straight up league context - the AL scored an extra run per game compared to the NL in '36, a difference that was typical of the decade.
Well, I’ve been a busy idiot. I’ve finished my 1936 ballot, but that was a side effect of looking up the Win Shares for all the top WAR performers (everybody with a WAR of 4.2 or more). Right after the ballot, I’ve listed all those players with their Win Shares numbers, in order of WAR, from the great Win Shares spreadsheet that Michael Brinkley sent me. As for my ballot, I’ve done what I said I would: Taken the Win Shares ordinal and multiplied it by two and then added in the WAR ordinal. The most serious disconnet is Lefty Grove. WAR has him first, and by a significant margin. Win Shares has him 11th. I don’t know where the disconnect comes from, but it might be from a difference about how powerful Strikeouts are. Lefty Grove comes equipped with Strikeouts.
The Ballot already:
1. Lou Gehrig
2. Carl Hubbell
3. Mel Ott
4. Arky Vaughan
5. Charlie Gehringer
6. Josh Gibson
7. Dizzy Dean
8. Lefty Grove
9. Joe Medwick
10. Paul Waner
The Win Shares List (If you want the Win Shares for someone who is not on this list, just comment, and I’ll look it up).
Lefty Grove 29
Carl Hubbell 35
Lou Gehrig 38
Arky Vaughan 35
Mel Ott 37
Charlie Gehrigner 35
Dizzy Dean 31
Johnny Allen 23
Luke Appling 29
Billy Herman 30
Joe Medwick 34
Paul Waner 32
Earl Averill 28
Wes Ferrell 26
Van Lingle Mungo 24
Tommy Bridges 26
Dick Bartell 24
Harry Kelley 19
Bill Dickey 25
Dolph Camilli 21
Harlond Clift 23
Danny MacFayden 23
Jimmie Foxx 26
Tony Cuccinello 22
Gus Suhr 25
Ed Brandt 17
Johnny Mize 24
Frank Demarree 25
Larry French 19
Red Rolfe 24
John Stone 21
Ivy Andrews 14
Joe DiMaggio 25
Odell Hale 21
Claude Passeau 15
Monte Pearson 18
Zeke Bonura 24
Gene Moore 21
George Selkirk 21
Red Lucas 15
Schoolboy Rowe 20
Wally Berger 22
How to treat these MLE's since the spitball was illegal in MLB? Byrd would not have been "grandfathered" in like Burleigh Grimes.
I feel like the ball was basically left in your court in the last thread. I'll quote a couple of comments that addressed your complaints about the position adjustment in WAR, specifically regarding Rickey/Raines/Stargell/Brock/BWilliams/Yaz:
kcgard2 (comment 22):
Me (comment 25):
DL - Thanks for the permission. I'll put together a comment in the next day or so. I am very interested in seeing how WAR works. BTW there is a reason that I don't just start with the Runs, as you suggested. I'd get lost in the trees and lose track of the forest. My memory says that you are involved in devising at least one of the WAR systems, but I'm not sure of even that. If it's true, then your and my approaches have to be different. You have to deal with fixing bugs or allowing for new data (One thing I really DO like about WAR is that it counts Baserunning Runs as well as Hitting Runs. This allows you to see just how far off simplistic stats like OPS+ are from reality. One of my arguments for Lou Brock is that he has a LOT of Baserunning Runs, but OPS, with or without the +, don't account for them at all. I realize that part of this is a data problem - 20 years ago, the data for individual baserunning attempts did not exist. But it's good to see just how much of Brock's offensive value is missing in OPS+, because so much of it was in the baserunning.). That means that you have to deal with the trees. I'm trying to deconstruct the system, so I have to start with the payoff stat, which is, of course, fWAR, and work down from there.
This suits my personality and talents very well, since I am essentially an engineer when it comes to math. I set up word problems; I don't prove theorems or do complex calculations. The only Bill James Kool-Aid that I drink comes from that. Bill is very, very good at looking at problems and setting up the math approaches that will work. In that way, he thinks like me, so I use his stuff a lot. But my problems with Linear Weights, say, don't have anything to do with Bill. They have a lot to do with The Hidden Game of Baseball, published in 1984, which describes the Linear Weights process as it existed then. I saw the zero-point-set-at-.500 problem immediately. I also realized that, if you have a Replacement Rate at all (Linear Weights does not, nor does Win Shares), then you are stuck with that Replacement Rate as your zero point when it comes to the math. That's why the "dWAR uses .500 as the Replacement Rate for defense" strikes me as impossibly wrong, and it's also why I call that "The Linear Weights Mistake."
That's Dan Rosenheck, not me.
seems like the perfect jab at describing what Win Shares is good for. Sorry, I know I'm letting my personal preferences color that reading.
BTW Brock, the full yearly positional adjustment by position can be found in the chart at bottom of this link:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml
Note that the way to apply this is position_adjustment * innings / 1350 (except for pitchers, but they are also described in that link).
1. Carl Hubbell - The difference between Hubbell and the next-best pitcher is quite a bit wider than between Gehrig and the next best hitter.
2. Lou Gehrig - Best position player, pretty clearly. Just falls a little behind Hubbell's great season
3. Josh Gibson - Best Negro League player (again)
4. Earl Averill - Great bat at a premium position, even if Averill was not a top-notch defender
5. Arky Vaughan - Similar story to Averill
6. Mel Ott
7. Luke Appling
8. Wes Ferrell - Once again, his bat lifts him above similar (sometimes better) pitchers
9. Leroy Matlock - Best NgL pitcher
10. Lefty Grove - On pure pitching, probably would have beaten out Ferrell for best AL pitcher.
Others: Dolph Camilli, Jimmie Foxx, Paul Waner, Bill Holland, Satchel Paige, Charlie Gehringer, Bill Dickey, Dizzy Dean, Johnny Allen
1. Lou Gehrig
2. Carl Hubbell just edges out teammate Ott for top NL
3. Mel Ott
4. Charlie Gehringer
5. Arky Vaughan
6. Lefty Grove
7. Ducky Medwick
8. Josh Gibson
9. Earl Averill
10.Bill Dickey catcher bonus helps but even though didn’t play a ton of games ranked 5th in AL games caught
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