1937 Prelim

1) Josh Gibson - this is one of his best seasons as a hitter
2) Joe Medwick - also one of his best seasons as a hitter
3) Lefty Gomez - best pitcher
4) Lefty Grove - big dropoff to the next pitcher, though I'm still struggling on where to place Hilton Smith
5) Bill Dickey
6) Joe DiMaggio
7) Hank Greenberg
8) Charlie Gehringer
9) Harlond Clift
10) Willard Brown

11-15) Dolph Camilli, Lou Gehrig, Billy Herman, Johnny Mize, Dick Bartell
16-20) Mel Ott, Gabby Hartnett, Arky Vaughan, Jim Turner, Hilton Smith

Prelim

1) Joe DiMaggio - DiMaggio, Gehrig, and Medwick are in a really tight race for the top spot. DiMaggio (and Gehrig) played in the tougher league, and DiMaggio was the only one with positive fielding value. fWAR says he's best also.
2) Josh Gibson - I sure wish we had more complete data
3) Lou Gehrig
4) Joe Medwick
5) Lefty Grove - also a really tight race for top pitching spot (between two Leftys)
6) Lefty Gomez
7) Hank Greenberg
8) Charlie Gehringer - Gehringer really is underappreciated, isn't he?
9) Mel Ott
10) Harlond Clift

11-20) Bill Dickey, Dick Bartell, Hilton Smith, Willard Brown, Johnny Mize, Billy Herman, Luke Appling, Dolph Camilli, Gabby Hartnett, Arky Vaughan

Dr C MLEs

Player Name Age Lg Pos G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR
Josh Gibson 25 NL 1B 136 580 43 0 0 3 -6 40 4.1 18 58 6.0
Buck Leonard 29 NL 1B 132 560 31 0 0 2 -5 28 2.8 17 45 4.7
Willie Wells 31 NL SS 146 620 9 1 0 6 9 24 2.5 19 43 4.5
Lazaro Salazar 24 NL RF 143 610 21 1 0 4 -6 21 2.1 21 42 4.3
Burnis Wright 23 NL CF 139 590 17 1 0 -2 -2 15 1.6 18 34 3.5
Newt Allen 36 NL 2B 115 490 3 0 0 11 4 18 1.9 15 34 3.5
Quincy Trouppe 24 AL C 94 410 22 0 0 0 3 24 2.2 13 37 3.4
Ray Dandridge 23 NL 3B 141 600 7 1 0 4 2 13 1.4 19 32 3.4
Martin Dihigo 32 NL RF 113 480 16 1 0 4 -5 16 1.7 15 31 3.3
Mule Suttles 36 NL 1B 103 440 18 0 0 2 -4 16 1.6 14 29 3.1
Dick Lundy 38 NL SS 85 360 7 0 0 3 5 15 1.5 11 26 2.7
Cool Papa Bell 34 NL CF 148 630 4 2 0 -1 -2 3 0.3 20 23 2.4
Sam Bankhead 26 NL SS 118 500 -6 2 0 4 7 7 0.7 16 23 2.4
Turkey Stearnes 36 NL LF 120 510 8 0 0 0 -5 4 0.4 16 19 2.0
George Scales 36 NL 3B 106 450 1 0 0 -2 2 0 0.0 14 14 1.5
Jud Wilson 41 NL 1B 38 160 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0.0 5 5 0.5
Biz Mackey 39 NL C 40 170 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 -0.1 5 5 0.5

Pitcher Name Age Lg G IP R RA9 lgRA9 RAA WAA pWAR Rrep RAR PA Rbat Rpos RAA bWAR WAR
Ray Brown 28 NL 42 270 86 2.87 4.71 55 5.9 8.6 26 82 90 -2 10 8 0.5 9.1
Lazaro Salazar 24 NL 33 170 43 2.26 4.51 42 4.6 6.2 16 58 57 1 6 7 0.5 6.7
Martin Dihigo 32 NL 37 260 101 3.50 4.51 29 3.2 5.8 24 53 87 1 10 11 0.7 6.5
Hilton Smith 30 NL 37 260 113 3.92 4.51 17 1.8 4.5 24 42 87 -1 10 9 0.6 5.1
Satchel Paige 30 AL 37 260 140 4.84 5.35 15 1.4 4.2 29 44 87 -7 10 2 0.1 4.3
Ramon Bragana 28 NL 38 220 95 3.87 4.51 16 1.7 3.9 21 36 73 -3 8 5 0.3 4.2
William Bell 39 NL 32 150 57 3.41 4.51 18 1.9 3.4 14 32 50 -2 5 4 0.3 3.7
Dave Barnhill 23 NL 33 170 71 3.74 4.51 15 1.5 3.2 16 31 57 -3 6 3 0.2 3.4
Bill Holland 36 NL 27 190 84 3.98 4.51 11 1.2 3.1 18 29 63 -7 7 0 -0.1 3.1
Bill Byrd 29 NL 38 220 110 4.52 4.51 0 0.0 2.2 21 20 73 -3 8 5 0.3 2.6
Roy Welmaker 23 NL 32 150 65 3.91 4.51 10 1.1 2.5 14 24 50 -5 5 1 0.1 2.6
Webstr McDonald 37 NL 37 260 133 4.60 4.51 -3 -0.3 2.4 24 22 87 -9 10 0 0.0 2.5
Willie Foster 33 NL 39 200 105 4.73 4.51 -5 -0.5 1.6 19 14 67 -6 7 2 0.1 1.7

Something to remember in the MLEs - Josh Gibson is getting converted to 1B, not C. At C his positional value would be a full win higher.

Paige spent most of 1937 pitching in the Dominican. The MLEs and the stats are telling very different stories for Ray Brown and Hilton Smith.

Wiki on Paige

"In the spring of 1937 the Crawfords were training in New Orleans, and Paige was approached by Dr. José Enrique Aybar, dean of the University of Santo Domingo, deputy of the Dominican Republic's national congress and director of Los Dragones, a baseball team operated by Rafael Trujillo, dictator of the Dominican Republic. Aybar hired Paige to act as an agent for Trujillo in recruiting other Negro league players to play for Los Dragones. Aybar gave Paige $30,000 to hire as many players as he could. Paige recruited five of his Crawfords teammates—Cool Papa Bell, Leroy Matlock, Sam Bankhead, Harry Williams and Herman Andrews—as well as Josh Gibson, who had recently been traded to the Homestead Grays. Other Dominican teams were also recruiting Negro league players. Greenlee and his fellow owners banned Paige and the other jumpers from the organized Negro leagues, but failed to dissuade the players.[59]

In the Dominican Republic, the American players were shadowed by armed guards. Although the purpose of the guards was to protect the players, the players were fearful that Trujillo would unleash them in anger if his team lost the championship. The season ended with an eight-game series between the two top teams, Paige's Dragones of "Ciudad Trujillo" (as Trujillo had renamed the capital city of Santo Domingo) and the Águilas Cibaeñas of Santiago. The Dragones won the first four, with Paige contributing two of them. The Águilas came back to win the next two and still had a chance to win the championship if they won the final two games.[60] In Paige's memoirs, he recalled finishing the game with two shutout innings to hold onto a 6–5 win while soldiers looked on "like a firing squad."[61] In reality, however, Paige did not enter the game until there was one out in the ninth inning, with his team leading 8–3. He proceeded to give up three runs on three hits before he got the third out on a great throw by Bankhead.[62] Paige had an excellent season overall, however, leading the league with an 8–2 record.[63]

Paige and the other players returning from the Dominican Republic faced a Negro league ban for jumping their teams. In response, they formed a barnstorming team called "Trujillo's All-Stars", which was later known as the "Satchel Paige All-Stars." Wilkinson evaded the ban by having promoter Ray Dean schedule games between the All-Stars and the House of David. In August, the All-Stars won the Denver Post tournament. In late September, Paige faced a team of Negro league all-stars at the Polo Grounds. Despite striking out eight and allowing only two runs, he lost when the opposing pitcher, Johnny "Schoolboy" Taylor, tossed a no-hitter. A week later a rematch was held at Yankee Stadium, and this time Paige beat Taylor handily.[64]"

NGL pitchers with > 10 games - leaders

Player Name Team Role W L W% G GS GF CG SHO SV IP R ER H HR BB K WP BK HBP BF ERA ERA+
Hilton Smith MULT RP 14 5 0.737 28 18  10 4 1 161.1 44 32 115 2 37 128 2 0 2 633 1.79 212
Jesse Houston CT SP 9 3 0.75 16 15  10 1 0 111.2 47 27 101 2 21 84 1  7 473 2.18 197
Vet Barnes KCM/SAS RP 9 3 0.75 17 8  5 0 2 76.1 28 22 73 3 23 52 1 0 3 317 2.59 192
Henry McHenry KCM SP 1 6 0.143 15 10  4 1 3 67.1 30 17 58 1 19 42 1 0 1 283 2.27 183
Terris McDuffie NE/HG SP 6 3 0.667 10 9  8 1 0 76 31 25 67 5 25 41 1  3 331 2.96 180
Jim Missouri* PS RP 3 2 0.6 11 5  3 1 0 48 22 16 45 3 9 31 0  0 196 3 173
Tom Glover* WEG RP 4 2 0.667 10 5  5 0 0 53.1 24 18 55 1 20 26 0  1 237 3.04 173
Andy Cooper* KCM/CAG SP 3 2 0.6 11 8  6 0 0 75.2 26 19 53 1 14 47 1 0 3 291 2.26 172
Ray Brown HG RP 11 3 0.786 21 12  12 0 4 126 54 45 109 4 37 74 0  4 534 3.21 157

One thing about Smith pitching for the Monarchs and Brown for the Grays - they didn't have to face their own lineups. The NAL only had 3 good teams - the Monarchs, Cincinnati Tigers and Chicago American Giants. The eastern teams were a little more balanced but the Grays were clearly the top team.

Henry McHenry has a sparkling ERA+ and a terrible W-L record while pitching for the Monarchs. Weird.

Let's dig into Ray Brown v Hilton Smith a little more. Ray Brown had a 131 OPS+ at the plate, Smith was a 90 OPS+ this season. Looking at surrounding seasons Smith was just as good in 1938 (he hit better). Ray Brown is dominant in 1938 (14-0, 262 ERA+). The peaks in Ray Brown's career are 1938 and 1940 but the peaks in his MLE are 1937 and 1939 - like everything is off by a season. I think I'll mentally swap his 1937 and 1938 MLEs to better match his actual seasons.

I had Ray Brown on-ballot in 1940 and I'm sure I will in 1938.

It's going to be close for Hilton Smith v Willard Brown for my last ballot slot.

1937 Kansas City Monarchs vs Chicago American Giants (Negro American League)

The Kansas City Monarchs won both halves of the 1937 Negro American League season, but a Play-Off series was held when the Chicago American Giants disputed the first half of the season being awarded to Kansas City.

The Kansas City Monarchs were led by the hitting of Bullet Rogan (.410), Jesse Brooks (.395), Newt Allen (.389), Willard Brown (.361) and Bill Simms (.318). The Monarchs also boasted a very strong pitching staff that included Hilton Smith, Bullet Rogan and Andy Cooper.
Candy Jim Taylor managed the Chicago American Giants. Even though he had a weak hitting team (Paul Hardy was the only player to hit .300 for the season), Taylor had an outstanding 9 pitching staff that included seasoned veterans Bill Foster, Ted Trent, Willie Powell and Sug Cornelius.

The 1937 Negro American League Play-Off Series got underway on September 8th with the first game being played in Dayton, Ohio. Hilton Smith started for the Monarchs and Sug Cornelius started for Chicago. The Monarchs got off to a quick start and scored four runs in the top of the first inning, but Sug Cornelius buckled down and shutout the Monarchs the rest of the way. Chicago scored two runs in the seventh and two runs in the eight to tie the game. The American Giants won the game in the bottom of the tenth inning when Bill Hoskins doubled and Jack Marshall singled him home for a 5-4 win. Marshall’s single in the tenth was his fourth hit of the game. Sug Cornelius got the win and Monarch’s relief pitcher Floyd Kranson took the loss.
Kansas City manager Andy Cooper took the mound in game two and faced off against Bill Foster. Chicago struck for two runs in the first inning and then Cooper shut down the American Giants for the next sixteen innings. The Monarchs scored their two runs in the top of the seventh inning. The game ended in a 2-2 seventeen inning tie. Game three was played in Milwaukee on September 13th and 14th. The reason the game was played over a two day time frame was that
when the Monarchs scored three runs in the top of the eighth inning, the American Giants disputed the runs and refused to take the field. Kansas City eventually won the game 8-7.
The Monarchs then won game four that was played in Indianapolis by a score of 6-3. The series then moved to Kansas City for the final game of the Play-Off Series. It was a hard fought low scoring affair. The Monarchs prevailed by a score of 2-1 when in the bottom of the ninth inning with two outs and a runner on first base, Willard Brown lined a double to right to drive in the winning run. The win enabled the Kansas City Monarchs to claim the first ever Negro American League championship title.

Top Hitters for the Series:
Kansas City – Ted Strong (.421), Willard Brown (.400), Jesse Brooks (.364), Bill Simms (.313) and Hilton Smith (.300).
Chicago – Bill Hoskins (.500), Jack Marshall (.381), Subby Byas (.357), Alec Radcliffe (.333) and Herman Dunlop (.300).
Leading Pitchers for the Series:
Kansas City – Hilton Smith (2-0).
Chicago – Sug Corneluis (1-1).
Negro American League Champion (1937) – Kansas City Monarchs

It is worth noting that Bullet Rogan is 43, Andy Cooper is 41 and neither had any trouble beating up on the Negro American League that season.

A few comments about Josh Gibson's 1937 season.

1. As DL noted, Dr. C's MLEs are assuming Gibson was a first baseman rather than as a catcher. But according to actual Seamheads data, Gibson was always a catcher first. The only season for which his games played at another position (left field) was near his games played at catcher was 1932. In 1937 Gibson is recorded playing 39 games for the Homestead Grays and starting 36 of them at catcher, 1 at first base, and 1 in left field. His 39 games played was out of 52 total Grays games for which Seamheads has box score data.

2. His playing time with the Grays is more impressive than it seems, because Gibson also played in the Dominican league during the spring, joining Satchel Paige, Cool Papa Bell, Martin Dihigo, and others--18 Negro leaguers in all. Unlike the others, however, Gibson had asked his owner for permission to play in the Dominican and consequently was allowed to rejoin the Grays when DR play ended in early July. The others who had jumped their contracts were not allowed to rejoin their NNL teams, and many of them formed a barnstorming team called the Santo Domingo Stars. See this post on the 1937 NNL season on the Seamheads blog. Taking account of his missed time in the Dominican League, Gibson seems to have played a very large percentage of the Grays games for which he was available to play.

3. According Seamheads data, Gibson's 1937 OPS+ of 272 was the second highest in NeLg history (min. of 150 PA), behind only Pete Hill in 1919 (282). Third is Gibson's 260 in 1943. My own back-of-the-envelope MLE formula estimates that his 1937 OPS+ of 272 was equivalent 231 in the majors. This is pretty similar to the estimate made by Chris Cobb/David Foss in the Josh Gibson thread of a 1937 OPS of 223 (see posts # 61 & 63 in that thread). In the same thread (Post #94) Chris Cobb estimates Gibson's 1937 win shares at 40. (The top two MLB players in win shares that season were Medwick with 40 and DiMaggio with 39). And in post # 114, Dan R estimates his WARP at 10.2.

My own take is that Gibson's 1937 was the best recorded season by the best position player in NeLg history (with his only real rival being Oscar Charleston in 1921 or 1924). When the Grays added Gibson to their roster in 1937, they went from a 27-24 record to 60-19 and would remain the league's best team for most of the next decade. I can understand the reluctance to give full credit for a player who only had 39 recorded games in a season, but when we try to understand the data we see that Gibson was healthy and playing almost all of his team's games. A look at the surrounding seasons assures me that it wasn't a small-sample fluke--Gibson was really, really good almost every season. We know that for the first three decades after integration, players of color were often (about one-third of the time) honored as MVP. I think it's reasonable to think that the best NeLg players were the equivalent of Robinson, Mays, Campanella, and Aaron. I hope that you'll see the case for electing Josh Gibson.

It doesn't take much to compare Gibson's estimated 223 OPS+ to Medwick's 182 OPS+ and conclude the catcher is the better MMP pick.

We know that for the first three decades after integration, players of color were often (about one-third of the time) honored as MVP

In contrast, Josh Gibson's 1940 MMP is the only MMP for a Negro League player.

That's a great link to the seamheads blog post.

The NNL and NAL did not get together to arrange a world series, but combined teams from the top two finishers in each league—the Kansas City Monarchs and Chicago American Giants of the NAL, and the Homestead Grays and Newark Eagles of the NNL—played an unsanctioned series at the end of the season. The NNL representatives, the Grays/Eagles, won easily, 8 games to 1.

1937-1941 is basically Buck Leonard's peak. I have him just off ballot right next to Johnny Mize this season.

DiMaggio (and Gehrig) played in the tougher league

Maybe, but the run scoring standard deviation was higher in the AL than in the NL. Dan R's League Adjustment is .906 for the AL and .95 for the NL this season. Looking at baseball reference a 4.50 FIP was league average in the AL but 4.00 FIP was average in the NL.

I'm convinced that Bill Dickey is one of the catchers who would rise up the rankings if we had catcher defense measures available during the 1930s. It is not an accident that the Yankees had the best pitching numbers in the American League - it's defense from Dickey and DiMaggio. Team ERA of 3.65 and a FIP of 4.08.

DL, did you mean to have Lou Gehrig 12? Can you explain that further? Even behind Dolph Camilli! I don't see how you get there. Thanks.

Sure - Gehrig has 7.4 adjusted batting wins to Camilli's 6.3. On defense Gehrig is -0.7 FWAA versus Camilli at 0.4 which makes them even at 6.7 WAA. Gehrig gets the edge above replacement with more playing time but when I look at wins above positional average Camilli does better because his rate stats (led the NL in OBP) are better. They're basically tied and I haven't looked at the postseason yet (which will move Gehrig up).

Gibson also played in the Dominican league during the spring, joining Satchel Paige, Cool Papa Bell, Martin Dihigo, and others--18 Negro leaguers in all

Paige, Dihigo and Matlock were basically the three best NGL pitchers in 1936.

1937-1941 is basically Buck Leonard's peak.

Buck Leonard's 1937 OPS+ from Seamheads is 208, which is second to Gibson. (Willard Brown is third with 190.) My back-of-the-envelope MLE formula converts Leonard's OPS+ to a 174 major league equivalent.* As an above-average defender at first base, that would appear to merit a ballot place.

My only concern regarding his record that year is that he played only 42 of the Grays' 52 recorded games, which is enough games missed to suggest a possible injury. You have to be cautious in interpreting NeLg missed games because players were sometimes lent to other teams, but they also missed games due to injury, and I think that's possible in this case.

Here are Leonard's 1937-41 seasons.

Yr / Seamheads OPS+ / my eqOPS+ / Chris Cobb's eqOPS+ / Games / Team Games Recorded
1937 208 / 174 / 184 / 42 / 52
1938 215 / 180 / 176 / 42 / 46
1939 228 / 192 / 171 / 30 / 33
1940 188 / 156 / 167 / 49 / 51
1941 232 / 195 / 140 / 47 / 49

Note that my MLE's do not include regression, whereas Chris Cobb's are regressed (and were done before Seamheads). The regression smoothing really dampens Chris's estimate for 1941 because of Leonard's off season in 1942.

* My back-of-the-envelope MLE formula is simply: Add 100 to the Seamheads OPS+; then multiply by 0.89; then subtract 100. For example, 174 = 0.89 * (208 + 100) - 100. There's a bunch of algebra behind the formula that shows that it works.

Leonard's poor performance in 1942 was due to an injury (broken finger).

My back-of-the-envelope MLE formula converts Leonard's OPS+ to a 174 major league equivalent.*

Johnny Mize 1937 OPS+ 174. Leonard and Mize are good comps 1937-1940. Leonard has slightly better seasons in 1938 and 1939. Mize looks better 1940.

1937 World Series

Player Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS E WPA cWPA
Bill Dickey 5 19 3 4 0 1 0 3 2 2 .211 .286 .316 .602 0 0 0 -0.09 -1.26%
Joe DiMaggio 5 22 2 6 0 0 1 4 0 3 .273 .273 .409 .682 0 0 0 0.11 2.86%
Lou Gehrig 5 17 4 5 1 1 1 3 5 4 .294 .455 .647 1.102 0 0 0 0.08 2.44%
Lefty Gomez* 2 6 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 .167 .375 .167 .542 0 0 0 0.04 1.43%
Red Ruffing 1 4 0 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 .500 .500 .750 1.250 0 0 0 0.09 2.36%

Dick Bartell 5 21 3 5 1 0 0 1 0 3 .238 .238 .286 .524 0 0 3 -0.15 -4.70%
Mel Ott* 5 20 1 4 0 0 1 3 1 4 .200 .238 .350 .588 0 0 1 0.08 1.64%

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP WPA cWPA
Lefty Gomez* 2 2 1.50 2 0 0 2 18.0 16 3 3 2 8 1.000 0.66 16.02%
Red Ruffing 1 1 1.00 1 0 0 1 9.0 7 1 1 3 8 1.111 0.30 9.74%

Carl Hubbell* 2 2 3.77 1 1 0 1 14.1 12 10 6 4 7 1.116 -0.09 -5.03%
Cliff Melton* 3 2 4.91 0 2 0 0 11.0 12 6 6 6 7 1.636 -0.30 -6.71%

8) Charlie Gehringer - Gehringer really is underappreciated, isn't he?

Agreed. He just keeps appearing on my ballots. This is the season he got his MVP award. I'm guessing he's a legend in Michigan.

Prelim ballot:

1. Josh Gibson - One of his best seasons.
2. Joe DiMaggio - Best ML player. Defense lifts him above some closely-bunched hitters.
3. Joe Medwick - NL MMP. Career year
4. Lou Gehrig - Defense drops him below DiMaggio and Medwick despite close hitting stats.
5. Hilton Smith - Best pitcher
6. Hank Greenberg - Not quite as good as the hitters at the top.
7. Bill Dickeky - Not Gibson as a hitter, obviously, but good hitting and strong defense at catcher is a great combination
8. Lefty Gomez - Best ML pitcher. Postseason bump for a strong World Series.
9. Ray Brown
10. Charlie Gehringer

11-21: Buck Leonard, Jim Turner, Ted Strong, Harland Clift, Red Ruffing, Newt Allen, Lefty Grove, Willard Brown, Luke Appling, Billy Herman.

Also of note, the Japanese Baseball League played its second year in 1937 (doing split Spring and Fall seasons). Sawamura Eiji, who's legendary in Japanese baseball, won the first ever Japanese MVP award in 1937. If you take both his seasons combined, it's a pretty strong season, though I suspect the Japanese league was at a pretty low level at that time.

Last day to get in a prelim ballot

Voting ends today unless I get an extension request