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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Friday, March 26, 2021Most Meritorious Player: 1937 DiscussionThe New York Yankees defeated the New York Giants in the World Series 4 games to 1 in a rematch of the 1936 series. The Kansas City Monarchs bested the Chicago American Giants in the Negro American League. Vote for 10. Player bWAR Joe Medwick 8.5 Bill Dickey 6.7 Joe DiMaggio 8.3 Hank Greenberg 7.5 Charlie Gehringer 7.7 Harlond Clift 6.9 Dolph Camilli 6.0 Lou Gehrig 8.3 Billy Herman 6.2 Johnny Mize 6.6 Dick Bartell 6.5 Mel Ott 6.8 Gabby Hartnett 4.8 Arky Vaughan 5.7 Luke Appling 6.2 Paul Waner 5.0 Bob Johnson 5.2 Gene Moore 5.7 Cecil Travis 4.7 Joe Cronin 5.0 Frank Demaree 3.9 Stan Hack 2.7 Wally Moses 5.2 Pinky Whitney 2.9 Jimmie Foxx 3.4 John Stone 4.4 Gee Walker 3.2 Zeke Bonura 4.3 Augie Galan 2.7 Tony Cuccinello 5.1 Josh Gibson 3.8 Willard Brown 3.9 Newt Allen 3.8 Buck Leonard 3.2 Alex Radcliff 2.4 Howard Easterling 2.0 Ted Strong 2.0 Vic Harris 2.1 Pitcher bWAR Lefty Gomez 9.0 Lefty Grove 9.2 Jim Turner 5.5 Red Ruffing 6.2 Johnny Allen 6.2 Monty Stratton 4.9 Jack Wilson 5.7 Lou Fette 3.8 Lee Grissom 4.5 Dizzy Dean 4.5 Cliff Melton 4.9 Van Lingle Mungo 4.3 Russ Bauers 4.1 Thornton Lee 4.2 Clyde Passeau 3.9 Elden Auker 4.3 Eddie Smith 4.2 Ted Carleton 3.8 Carl Hubbell 3.9 Hilton Smith 5.7 Ray Brown 3.6 Terris McDuffie 2.8 Vet Barnes 2.6 Willie Cornelius 2.6 Eugene Bremer 2.5 Jesse Houston 2.4 |
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1. DL from MN Posted: March 26, 2021 at 06:34 PM (#6010335)1) Josh Gibson - this is one of his best seasons as a hitter
2) Joe Medwick - also one of his best seasons as a hitter
3) Lefty Gomez - best pitcher
4) Lefty Grove - big dropoff to the next pitcher, though I'm still struggling on where to place Hilton Smith
5) Bill Dickey
6) Joe DiMaggio
7) Hank Greenberg
8) Charlie Gehringer
9) Harlond Clift
10) Willard Brown
11-15) Dolph Camilli, Lou Gehrig, Billy Herman, Johnny Mize, Dick Bartell
16-20) Mel Ott, Gabby Hartnett, Arky Vaughan, Jim Turner, Hilton Smith
1) Joe DiMaggio - DiMaggio, Gehrig, and Medwick are in a really tight race for the top spot. DiMaggio (and Gehrig) played in the tougher league, and DiMaggio was the only one with positive fielding value. fWAR says he's best also.
2) Josh Gibson - I sure wish we had more complete data
3) Lou Gehrig
4) Joe Medwick
5) Lefty Grove - also a really tight race for top pitching spot (between two Leftys)
6) Lefty Gomez
7) Hank Greenberg
8) Charlie Gehringer - Gehringer really is underappreciated, isn't he?
9) Mel Ott
10) Harlond Clift
11-20) Bill Dickey, Dick Bartell, Hilton Smith, Willard Brown, Johnny Mize, Billy Herman, Luke Appling, Dolph Camilli, Gabby Hartnett, Arky Vaughan
Wiki on Paige
One thing about Smith pitching for the Monarchs and Brown for the Grays - they didn't have to face their own lineups. The NAL only had 3 good teams - the Monarchs, Cincinnati Tigers and Chicago American Giants. The eastern teams were a little more balanced but the Grays were clearly the top team.
Henry McHenry has a sparkling ERA+ and a terrible W-L record while pitching for the Monarchs. Weird.
Let's dig into Ray Brown v Hilton Smith a little more. Ray Brown had a 131 OPS+ at the plate, Smith was a 90 OPS+ this season. Looking at surrounding seasons Smith was just as good in 1938 (he hit better). Ray Brown is dominant in 1938 (14-0, 262 ERA+). The peaks in Ray Brown's career are 1938 and 1940 but the peaks in his MLE are 1937 and 1939 - like everything is off by a season. I think I'll mentally swap his 1937 and 1938 MLEs to better match his actual seasons.
I had Ray Brown on-ballot in 1940 and I'm sure I will in 1938.
1. As DL noted, Dr. C's MLEs are assuming Gibson was a first baseman rather than as a catcher. But according to actual Seamheads data, Gibson was always a catcher first. The only season for which his games played at another position (left field) was near his games played at catcher was 1932. In 1937 Gibson is recorded playing 39 games for the Homestead Grays and starting 36 of them at catcher, 1 at first base, and 1 in left field. His 39 games played was out of 52 total Grays games for which Seamheads has box score data.
2. His playing time with the Grays is more impressive than it seems, because Gibson also played in the Dominican league during the spring, joining Satchel Paige, Cool Papa Bell, Martin Dihigo, and others--18 Negro leaguers in all. Unlike the others, however, Gibson had asked his owner for permission to play in the Dominican and consequently was allowed to rejoin the Grays when DR play ended in early July. The others who had jumped their contracts were not allowed to rejoin their NNL teams, and many of them formed a barnstorming team called the Santo Domingo Stars. See this post on the 1937 NNL season on the Seamheads blog. Taking account of his missed time in the Dominican League, Gibson seems to have played a very large percentage of the Grays games for which he was available to play.
3. According Seamheads data, Gibson's 1937 OPS+ of 272 was the second highest in NeLg history (min. of 150 PA), behind only Pete Hill in 1919 (282). Third is Gibson's 260 in 1943. My own back-of-the-envelope MLE formula estimates that his 1937 OPS+ of 272 was equivalent 231 in the majors. This is pretty similar to the estimate made by Chris Cobb/David Foss in the Josh Gibson thread of a 1937 OPS of 223 (see posts # 61 & 63 in that thread). In the same thread (Post #94) Chris Cobb estimates Gibson's 1937 win shares at 40. (The top two MLB players in win shares that season were Medwick with 40 and DiMaggio with 39). And in post # 114, Dan R estimates his WARP at 10.2.
My own take is that Gibson's 1937 was the best recorded season by the best position player in NeLg history (with his only real rival being Oscar Charleston in 1921 or 1924). When the Grays added Gibson to their roster in 1937, they went from a 27-24 record to 60-19 and would remain the league's best team for most of the next decade. I can understand the reluctance to give full credit for a player who only had 39 recorded games in a season, but when we try to understand the data we see that Gibson was healthy and playing almost all of his team's games. A look at the surrounding seasons assures me that it wasn't a small-sample fluke--Gibson was really, really good almost every season. We know that for the first three decades after integration, players of color were often (about one-third of the time) honored as MVP. I think it's reasonable to think that the best NeLg players were the equivalent of Robinson, Mays, Campanella, and Aaron. I hope that you'll see the case for electing Josh Gibson.
In contrast, Josh Gibson's 1940 MMP is the only MMP for a Negro League player.
Maybe, but the run scoring standard deviation was higher in the AL than in the NL. Dan R's League Adjustment is .906 for the AL and .95 for the NL this season. Looking at baseball reference a 4.50 FIP was league average in the AL but 4.00 FIP was average in the NL.
Paige, Dihigo and Matlock were basically the three best NGL pitchers in 1936.
Buck Leonard's 1937 OPS+ from Seamheads is 208, which is second to Gibson. (Willard Brown is third with 190.) My back-of-the-envelope MLE formula converts Leonard's OPS+ to a 174 major league equivalent.* As an above-average defender at first base, that would appear to merit a ballot place.
My only concern regarding his record that year is that he played only 42 of the Grays' 52 recorded games, which is enough games missed to suggest a possible injury. You have to be cautious in interpreting NeLg missed games because players were sometimes lent to other teams, but they also missed games due to injury, and I think that's possible in this case.
Here are Leonard's 1937-41 seasons.
Yr / Seamheads OPS+ / my eqOPS+ / Chris Cobb's eqOPS+ / Games / Team Games Recorded
1937 208 / 174 / 184 / 42 / 52
1938 215 / 180 / 176 / 42 / 46
1939 228 / 192 / 171 / 30 / 33
1940 188 / 156 / 167 / 49 / 51
1941 232 / 195 / 140 / 47 / 49
Note that my MLE's do not include regression, whereas Chris Cobb's are regressed (and were done before Seamheads). The regression smoothing really dampens Chris's estimate for 1941 because of Leonard's off season in 1942.
* My back-of-the-envelope MLE formula is simply: Add 100 to the Seamheads OPS+; then multiply by 0.89; then subtract 100. For example, 174 = 0.89 * (208 + 100) - 100. There's a bunch of algebra behind the formula that shows that it works.
Johnny Mize 1937 OPS+ 174. Leonard and Mize are good comps 1937-1940. Leonard has slightly better seasons in 1938 and 1939. Mize looks better 1940.
Agreed. He just keeps appearing on my ballots. This is the season he got his MVP award. I'm guessing he's a legend in Michigan.
1. Josh Gibson - One of his best seasons.
2. Joe DiMaggio - Best ML player. Defense lifts him above some closely-bunched hitters.
3. Joe Medwick - NL MMP. Career year
4. Lou Gehrig - Defense drops him below DiMaggio and Medwick despite close hitting stats.
5. Hilton Smith - Best pitcher
6. Hank Greenberg - Not quite as good as the hitters at the top.
7. Bill Dickeky - Not Gibson as a hitter, obviously, but good hitting and strong defense at catcher is a great combination
8. Lefty Gomez - Best ML pitcher. Postseason bump for a strong World Series.
9. Ray Brown
10. Charlie Gehringer
11-21: Buck Leonard, Jim Turner, Ted Strong, Harland Clift, Red Ruffing, Newt Allen, Lefty Grove, Willard Brown, Luke Appling, Billy Herman.
Also of note, the Japanese Baseball League played its second year in 1937 (doing split Spring and Fall seasons). Sawamura Eiji, who's legendary in Japanese baseball, won the first ever Japanese MVP award in 1937. If you take both his seasons combined, it's a pretty strong season, though I suspect the Japanese league was at a pretty low level at that time.
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