1938 Prelim

1) Josh Gibson - not his best season but still in his prime and plenty good enough to be the top position player
2) Ray Brown - best pitcher
3) Arky Vaughan
4) Mel Ott
5) Joe Cronin
6) Harlond Clift
7) Bill Lee
8) Hank Greenberg
9) Buck Leonard
10) Hilton Smith

11-15) Stan Hack, Jimmie Foxx, Bill Dickey, Buddy Myer, Johnny Mize
16-20) Red Ruffing, Ival Goodman, Ernie Lombardi, Rudy York, Paul Derringer

1938 prelim: this is a really interesting season for this exercise, IMO.

1) Mel Ott
2) Ray Brown
3) Josh Gibson
4) Arky Vaughan - big outlier defensive season is why I'm penalizing a bit
5) Jimmie Foxx
6) Hank Greenberg
7) Joe Cronin
8) Bill Lee
9) Johnny Mize
10) Buck Leonard

11-20) Harlond Clift, Hilton Smith, Ival Goodman, Joe DiMaggio, Stan Hack, Bill Dickey, Paul Derringer, Red Ruffing, Charlie Gehringer, Buddy Myer

Dr C NGL MLEs

Player Name Age Lg Pos G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR
Josh Gibson 26 NL 1B 147 630 52 0 0 3 -6 48 5.0 20 68 7.1
Buck Leonard 30 NL 1B 135 580 37 0 0 2 -6 34 3.5 18 52 5.4
Martin Dihigo 33 NL RF 138 590 32 1 0 5 -6 32 3.4 18 51 5.3
Lazaro Salazar 25 NL RF 119 510 34 1 0 4 -5 34 3.5 17 51 5.3
Willard Brown  22 AL  CF  620   29    1    0     4    -1   33   3.0   21   54   4.9
Quincy Trouppe 25 AL C 114 500 32 0 0 0 3 35 3.1 16 51 4.6
Willie Wells 32 NL SS 152 650 5 1 0 6 9 21 2.2 20 41 4.4
Ray Dandridge 24 NL 3B 142 610 15 1 0 4 2 22 2.3 19 41 4.3
Cool Papa Bell 35 NL CF 147 630 19 2 0 -1 -1 18 1.9 20 38 4.0
Burnis Wright 24 NL RF 131 560 18 1 0 4 -5 18 1.9 17 36 3.8
Bus Clarkson 23 NL SS 114 490 5 0 0 0 7 12 1.2 15 27 2.9
Sam Bankhead 27 NL SS 138 590 -7 2 0 4 8 8 0.8 18 26 2.8
Mule Suttles 37 NL 1B 84 360 11 0 0 1 -3 9 0.9 11 20 2.1
Turkey Stearnes 37 NL LF 112 480 7 0 0 0 -5 2 0.3 15 17 1.9
Newt Allen 37 NL 2B 82 350 -5 0 0 8 3 6 0.6 11 17 1.8
George Scales 37 NL 3B 75 320 3 0 0 -2 1 3 0.3 10 12 1.3
Biz Mackey 40 NL C 23 100 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0.0 3 3 0.3

Pitcher Name Age Lg G IP R RA9 lgRA9 RAA WAA pWAR Rrep RAR PA Rbat Rpos RAA bWAR WAR
Ray Brown 28 NL 42 270 86 2.87 4.71 55 5.9 8.6 26 82 90 -2 10 8 0.5 9.1 (1937)
Martin Dihigo 33 NL 40 260 93 3.22 4.42 34 3.8 6.4 24 58 87 1 10 11 0.8 7.2
Ramon Bragana 29 NL 39 250 103 3.71 4.42 20 2.1 4.7 23 43 83 -3 10 6 0.4 5.1
Lazaro Salazar 25 NL 27 160 52 2.91 4.42 27 3.0 4.5 15 41 53 1 6 7 0.4 5.0
Hilton Smith 31 NL 40 260 114 3.96 4.42 13 1.4 4.0 24 37 87 -1 10 9 0.6 4.7
Ray Brown 29 NL 37 260 120 4.16 4.51 10 1.1 3.8 24 35 87 -2 10 8 0.5 4.3 (1938)
Bill Holland 37 NL 23 150 50 3.01 4.42 23 2.6 4.1 14 37 50 -6 6 0 0.0 4.1
Bill Byrd 30 NL 33 220 96 3.92 4.42 12 1.3 3.5 20 32 73 -3 8 6 0.4 3.9
Dave Barnhill 24 NL 32 190 77 3.63 4.42 17 1.8 3.7 17 34 63 -4 7 3 0.2 3.9
Satchel Paige 31 AL 29 190 108 5.12 5.52 8 0.8 2.8 22 30 63 -5 7 2 0.1 2.9
Webstr McDonald 38 NL 40 260 129 4.48 4.42 -2 -0.2 2.5 24 22 87 -9 10 1 0.1 2.5
Roy Welmaker 24 NL 27 160 77 4.34 4.42 1 0.2 1.8 15 16 53 -5 6 1 0.1 1.9

This is, of course, the year Paige's injury. He didn't fully recover until 1941.

"Pitching in Venezuela, Paige felt pain in his right shoulder. After he arrived in Mexico, the pain developed into the first major injury of his career. He tried to pitch through the pain, and managed to beat Dihigo in their first match-up in early September, allowing one run in eight innings. Two weeks later they faced off again, and this time Paige could barely lift his arm. He managed to go six-plus innings in a game that Paige's team ultimately lost 10–3. One sportswriter wrote that Paige looked like a "squeezed lemon."[67]

Paige returned to his hotel room. He recalled that the next morning, "My stomach got sick with the pain that shot up my right arm. Sweat popped out all over me. The pain wouldn't quit. I tried lifting my arm. I couldn't. I just sat there, sweating, hurting enough to want to cry, getting sicker in the stomach and getting scared—real scared. My arm. I couldn't lift it."[68] He was examined by physicians in Mexico and in the United States; one expert told him that he would never pitch again.[69]" - wiki

I included Ray Brown's 1937 MLE because if you look at the Seamheads data it makes a lot more sense to swap his 1937 and 1938 seasons. His peak in the MLEs is 1937 and 1939 but his peak in real life was 1938 and 1940. I'm using the 1937 data for my ballot.

I will have to look into Dihigo:

"Although a two-time All-Star in the American Negro leagues, Dihigo's greatest season came in 1938 with Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz in the Mexican League, where he went 18-2 with a 0.90 ERA as a pitcher, while winning the batting title with a .387 average." - wiki

Updated Prelim

1) Josh Gibson - not his best season but still in his prime and plenty good enough to be the top position player
2) Ray Brown - best pitcher
3) Arky Vaughan
4) Mel Ott
5) Joe Cronin
6) Martin Dihigo - peak pitching season for Dihigo and still a good hitter
7) Harlond Clift
8) Bill Lee
9) Hank Greenberg
10) Buck Leonard

11-15) Stan Hack, Jimmie Foxx, Bill Dickey, Buddy Myer, Johnny Mize
16-20) Quincy Trouppe, Hilton Smith, Red Ruffing, Ival Goodman, Ted Strong
21-25) Ernie Lombardi, Rudy York, Neil Robinson, Paul Derringer, Charlie Gehringer

With his connections and wallet, Pasquel recommended a black Cuban super star to the Aguila, also in Veracruz in 1937. Martin Dihigo carried the team to the championship in 1937 and 1938. The Mexico City Agrario team, archrival to the Aguila club, countered by signing Satchel Paige, the greatest black American pitcher of the time, who in 1938 became the first African American to play in the Mexican League.

By 1940, there were 63 African-American players in Mexico – a Mexican ‘Field of Dreams.’

https://remezcla.com/features/sports/the-secret-history-of-how-mexico-pushed-baseball-toward-racial-integration/

Ray Brown from Negro Leagues eMuseum

In 1938 the Grays fielded the strongest team of their nine straight pennant winners, and [Brown] was picked for the East-West All Star game but was withheld from participation by the club and the East lost, causing some owners to demand that the best players be allowed to represent their league in future contests. Brown finished the season with a 10-2 record and was one of five players designated by the Pittsburgh Courier as certain major-league stars and recommended to the Pittsburgh Pirates to sign if they wanted to be guaranteed a pennant. The other players identified were Josh Gibson. Buck Leonard, Cool Papa Bell, and Satchel Paige. Few baseball historians doubt that with these five stars added to the Pittsburgh roster (giving them a total of seven Hall of Famers) the Pirates would have more than overcome the 2-game deficit by which the Chicago Cubs won the pennant when Gabby Hartnett hit his famous "homer in the gloaming."

Prelim:

1) Ray Brown
2) Hilton Smith
3) Mel Ott
4) Jimmie Foxx
5) Arky Vaughn
6) Hank Greenberg
7) Stan Hack
8) Buck Leonard
9) Joe Cronin
10) Bill Lee

Here's Brock Hanke's 1938 ballot, derived solely from Win Share numbers for the season, except for the (admittedly subjective) placement of Ray Brown. For those of you who are wondering if I will ever get around to posting up my series of WAR positional adjustment comments, well, what happened was that I, wandering around the BB-Ref website looking for anything to help me deal with what I'd already found, found a SECOND instance where a WAR calculation has a subjective bias. That was the LAST thing I was expecting, but I have to include it now. So, it will be a week or two, but it will be here. I'd be a quick edit and proofread from publishing except for this new nuisance.

Since I'm just listing Win Shares, please consider this as my final ballot, and transfer it to the Ballot Thread when that's appropriate. - And THANKS, DL, for doing this for me, month after month!

If you check Win Shares, you will find the there are a lot of ties in 1938. The second through fourth ranks are all 34 WS; I ranked them by defensive position (by defensive reputation, at the same position), as my one sop to Positional Adjustments. Seventh and Eighth are both 30; I sorted them, too, by defensive position. . Ninth through 11th are all 28; I had to drop Johnny Mize from the Top Ten to make room for Ray Brown. I kept Bill Lee and Ival Goodman ahead of Mize because Lee is the highest ranked pitcher, and this is Ival's only chance ever at a Top Ten spot. Plus, Goodman was a real good defensive outfielder, while Mize was an OK 1B - sop to WAR.

1. Mel Ott (36)
2. Arky Vaughan (34)
3. Jimmie Foxx (34)
4. Hank Greenberg (34)
5. Stan Hack (33)
6. Ray Brown
7. Joe Cronin (30)
8. Joe DiMaggio (30)
9. Bill Lee (28)
10. Ival Goodman (28)

1938 World Series

Player Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS E WPA cWPA
Frankie Crosetti 4 16 1 4 2 1 1 6 2 4 .250 .368 .688 1.056 0 1 1 0.45 11.42%
Bill Dickey* 4 15 2 6 0 0 1 2 1 0 .400 .438 .600 1.038 1 0 0 -0.01 2.32%
Joe DiMaggio 4 15 4 4 0 0 1 2 1 1 .267 .313 .467 .779 0 0 0 0.04 0.46%

Stan Hack* 4 17 3 8 1 0 0 1 1 2 .471 .500 .529 1.029 0 1 0 0.01 1.46%

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP WPA cWPA
Lefty Gomez* 1 1 3.86 1 0 0 0 7.0 9 3 3 1 5 1.429 0.00 -0.11%
Red Ruffing 2 2 1.50 2 0 0 2 18.0 17 4 3 2 11 1.056 0.82 21.46%

Clay Bryant 1 1 6.75 0 1 0 0 5.1 6 4 4 5 3 2.063 -0.15 -3.76%
Bill Lee 2 2 2.45 0 2 0 0 11.0 15 6 3 1 8 1.455 -0.12 -1.39%

The Yankees used 4 pitchers in the entire World Series, 3 starters and a reliever. 2 complete game wins for Ruffing.