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Thursday, February 22, 2018

Most Meritorious Player: 1940 Ballot

For 1940 each voter should rank the top 10 players from all leagues combined.

Balloting is scheduled to close at 4pm EDT on 6 March 2018.

Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If you have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 5 March 2018.

For detailed rules see one of our previous ballots.

DL from MN Posted: February 22, 2018 at 12:33 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: February 22, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5628765)
1940 Ballot

1) Josh Gibson - in the prime of his career but no NGL stats due to playing in the Mexican League. MLEs show him as the clear best position player due to his insane MXL stats
2) Bob Feller - so many innings
3) Ray Brown - projecting pitching not quite as good as Bobo Newsom but with a good bat
4) Claude Passeau
5) Lou Boudreau - top MLB position player
6) Johnny Mize
7) Luke Appling
8) Hank Greenberg
9) Bobo Newsom
10) Arky Vaughan

11-15) Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams, Stan Hack, Bus Clarkson, Bucky Walters
16-20) Billy Werber, Joe Cronin, Schoolboy Rowe, Rudy York, Joe Gordon
21-25) Lonnie Frey, Dolph Camilli, Charlie Keller, Larry French, Buck Leonard
   2. MrC. Posted: February 22, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5628845)
1940 Ballot

I have reworked the park factors since my first ballot. I have also used the actual fielding numbers rather than the regressed numbers.

1. Bob Feller 7.59 WARR
2. Josh Gibson 7.44 WARR Used MLE presented on discussion page to calculate WARR value.
3. Ted Williams 7.26 WARR
4. Joe DiMaggio 7.20 WARR
5. Hank Greenberg 6.98 WARR
6. Lonny Frey 6.98 WARR
7. Claude Passeau 6.59 WARR
8. Arky Vaughn 6.39 WARR
9. Charlie Keller 6.38 WARR
10. Joe Gordon 6.12 WARR

Rest of the top 15
11. Lou Boudreau
12. Bobo Newsom
13. Billy Werber
14. Johnny Mize
15. Luke Appling

   3. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 22, 2018 at 03:35 PM (#5628995)
1) Josh Gibson: Best ML/NeL player and catcher - IMO, fairly easily on the former and by a ton on the latter.
2) Joe DiMaggio: Best ML player and center fielder despite some games missed.
3) Ray Brown: Best ML/Nel pitcher by a small amount.
4) Bob Feller: Best ML pitcher.
5) Claude Passeau: Best NL pitcher.
6) Hank Greenberg: Best ML left fielder.
7) Bucky Walters
8) Buck Leonard: Best ML/Nel first baseman.
9) Arky Vaughan: Best ML shortstop.
10) Johnny Mize: Best ML first baseman.
   4. DL from MN Posted: February 22, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5628999)
Update: I'm closing the ballot on TUESDAY March 6 instead of the usual Wednesday. I'm traveling that Wednesday.
   5. Qufini Posted: February 22, 2018 at 07:28 PM (#5629110)
1940 Ballot

1. Josh Gibson, C, Homestead/Veracruz: head-to-head with Greenberg, Gibson comes out on top thanks to 60 runs batting and catcher bonus
2. Hank Greenberg, LF, Detroit Tigers: the best player in the Major Leagues with 171 OPS+ and 166 RC, though only -2 fielding
3. Bob Feller, P, Cleveland Indians: 163 ERA+ to go along with MLB leading 320 IP
4. Johnny Mize, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: best player in the NL thanks to 177 OPS+ and 147 RC
5. Joe DiMaggio, CF, New York Yankees: 173 OPS+ and +4 fielding but only 132 games or he might have jumped into the top two
6. Bucky Walters, P, Cincinnati Reds: the real MVP of the Reds with a 154 ERA+ in 305 IP
7. Ted Williams, LF, Boston Red Sox: 161 OPS+ and 145 RC
8. Ray Brown, P, Homestead Grays: leads the Negro Leagues with both a 257 ERA+ and 153 IP
9. Bobo Newsom, P, Detroit Tigers: AL leading 168 ERA+ in 264 IP
10. Bus Clarkson, SS, Toledo Crawfords/Newark Eagles: 195 OPS+ leads the Negro Leagues while playing shortstop

11. Claude Passeau, P, Chicago Cubs: 149 ERA+ in 280 IP
12. Jimmie Foxx, 1B/C, Boston Red Sox
13. Rudy York, 1B, Detroit Tigers
14. Buck Leonard, 1B, Homestead Grays
15. Johnny Rigney, P, Chicago White Sox
16. Arky Vaughan, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
17. Paul Derringer, P, Cincinnati Reds
18. Joe Gordon, 2B, New York Yankees
19. Stan Hack, 3B, Chicago Cubs
20. Ernie Lombardi, C, Cincinnati Reds
   6. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 23, 2018 at 08:36 AM (#5629386)
5) Claude Passeau: Best NL pitcher.

I should have posted also that I have him as the best NL player. In fact, I have the top-two players in the Senior League as pitchers.
   7. DL from MN Posted: February 23, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5629636)
1940 Ballot - REVISED

I realized I had forgotten to assign post-season credit like I usually do. That will change placements.

1) Josh Gibson - in the prime of his career but no NGL stats due to playing in the Mexican League. MLEs show him as the clear best position player due to his insane MXL stats
2) Bob Feller - so many innings
3) Bobo Newsom - excellent postseason - 26 innings # 1.13 ERA - gives large bonus. Didn't get points for it but his father passed away between games 1 and 5.
4) Ray Brown - projecting pitching not quite as good as Bobo Newsom's regular season but with a good bat
5) Hank Greenberg - huge bat continued to produce in the World Series
6) Claude Passeau
7) Lou Boudreau - top MLB position player in the regular season, outstanding fielder
8) Johnny Mize
9) Luke Appling
10) Arky Vaughan

11-15) Joe DiMaggio, Bucky Walters, Ted Williams, Stan Hack, Bus Clarkson
16-20) Billy Werber, Rudy York, Joe Cronin, Schoolboy Rowe, Joe Gordon
21-25) Lonnie Frey, Dolph Camilli, Charlie Keller, Larry French, Buck Leonard
   8. DL from MN Posted: March 03, 2018 at 12:51 PM (#5633383)
Three days left to vote
   9. bjhanke Posted: March 05, 2018 at 04:52 AM (#5633643)
As you all are no doubt sick of by now, I’ve spent the last few years complaining about disconnected rankings, where a player’s ranking in Win Shares isn’t anywhere near close to his ranking in WAR. I’ve been saying that this has been getting worse. Well, now we’re back to 1940, and so things should be better, right? Well, yes, they are. I apparently haven’t been blind to anything. WS and WAR do have a disconnect, particularly about pitchers, where Win Shares thinks that WAR severely overrates them. And it’s getting worse.

I dug up my old comparison sheet for 2010, where I actually have the component rankings along with the final ones. In the 2010 Top Ten (we voted for 15 in 2010, but we’re only voting for ten here in 1940), we had pitcher Roy Halladay with the #3 ranking in WAR, but #24 in WS. Adrian Beltre, not a pitcher, ranked 5th in WAR and 21st in WS. Miguel Cabrera, also not a pitcher, ranked 16th in Win Shares, and 9th in WAR. They all made the 2010 overall Top Ten, not just fifteen.

In 1940, we don’t see that type of disconnect. Among the Top Ten, the worst are Bobo Newsom, 13th in Win Shares but 3rd in WAR, Ted Williams, 7th in WS, 10th in WAR, Joe Gordon, 11th in WS, 14 in WAR, and Luke Appling, 7th in WS, 17th in WAR. The lowest component ranking to be enough to get a player into the 1940 Top Ten was 17th. In 2010, it was 24th, and there was a 21st, too. The 1940 rankings just plain have much more consensus.

Before I actually post my list, I have to say that the above was all before I factored in non-MLB players Josh Gibson and Satchel Paige. I’m conservative about ranking players from other leagues, because 1) I don’t know what the quality was of the leagues that they did play in, and 2) I don’t know how many games they spent in their primary position, playing full speed. In 1940, Gibson was spending time at first base, and Paige was known to pitch the first three innings of a non-Negro-League start and then hop a train for a night game. Especially with pitchers and catchers, the number of innings that they have to play at full speed is strongly related to how well they do when they do play full speed. The Negro Leaguers and Latin players paced themselves; it was a survival skill in Negro League and Latin American ball. So, I only dropped two off the MLB list – Luke Appling at #9 and Joe Gordon at #10. These also removed the two worst component rankings: Appling’s 17th and Gordon’s 14th, both in WAR.

So, here’s the 1940 ballot:

1. Bob Feller
2. Johnny Mize
3. Satchel Paige
4. Joe DiMaggio
5. Josh Gibson
6. Hank Greenberg
7. Bucky Walters
8. Bobo Newsom
9. Ted Williams
10. Lou Boudreau
   10. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: March 06, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5634481)
1940 MMP ballot (numbers in parentheses are salary estimator/$1M):

1) Josh Gibson (22.56)
2) Bob Feller (19.21)
3) Joe DiMaggio (18.42) - AL MMPosition Player
4) Hank Greenberg (15.79)
5) Johnny Mize (15.32) - NL MMP
6) Arky Vaughan (15.07)
7) Lonny Frey (14.65)
8) Joe Gordon (14.49)
9) Claude Passeau (14.02) - NL MMPitcher
10) Ted Williams (13.53)

11-15) Lou Boudreau, Bobo Newsome, Ray Brown, Bill Byrd, Luke Appling.
   11. caiman Posted: March 06, 2018 at 12:06 PM (#5634490)

I have no way of measuring the Negro League players performances. Undoubtedly, there were many who were superior to many, if not most (or all!), of those I am listing here, but I only have the MLB data to work with. Therefore, this is just an abridged list of only the MLB leaders.

Here's the MLB RPA leaders in terms of runs produced above the average:

1. Johnny Mize 53.82 runs
2. Joe DiMaggio 45.98 runs
3. Ted Williams 45.60 runs
4. Hank Greenberg 45.07 runs
5. Jimmy Foxx 37.22 runs
6. Elbie Fletcher 35.25 runs
7. Hal Trosky 35.07 runs
8. Bob Feller 34.27 runs
9. Charlie Keller 33.52 runs
10. Mel Ott 32.59 runs
11. Dolph Camilli 32.18 runs
12. Arky Vaughn 31.15 runs
13. Claude Passeau 30.64 runs
14. Rudy York 30.31 runs
15. Stan Hack 28.69 runs
16. Bobo Newsom 28.35 runs
17a. Johnny Rigney 27.85 runs
17b. Bill Nicholson 27.85 runs
19. Bob Johnson 25.26 runs
20. Enos Slaughter 24.51 runs
21. Tommy Bridges 24.24 runs
22. Paul Derringer 23.26 runs
   12. DL from MN Posted: March 06, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5634541)
I like the information but have usually not counted caiman's lists pre-integration as official ballots due to the exclusion of NGL candidates.
   13. DL from MN Posted: March 06, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5634545)
30. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: March 03, 2018 at 08:13 PM (#5633424)
I'm having trouble posting on the 1940 ballot but here's my final ballot-no postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Division-contender.

1. Gibson
2. Feller--top AL pitcherand player
3. Greenberg
4. Mize--it's amazing that the VC had to elect him to the HOF
5. Brown
6. Dimaggio
7. Walters
8. Newsom
9. Ted Williams
10.McCormick--Cincy's dominance helped him sneak in over Vaughn & others
   14. DL from MN Posted: March 06, 2018 at 04:04 PM (#5634656)
Election is over

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