1949 ballot

1) Stan Musial - Great bat but it is his glovework that makes the difference
2) Ted Williams - Higher standard deviations in run scoring in the AL versus the NL (0.913 v 0.953) but still the best bat
3) Jackie Robinson - Closer to #5 than to #2
4) Mel Parnell - 315 innings with good run prevention
5) Eddie Joost - similar value at the plate to Robinson, better defensive value. They are very close
6) Ralph Kiner - 2nd best bat but below average glove
7) Pee Wee Reese - postseason bonus
8) Bob Lemon - good hitting helps him make the list
9) Vern Stephens
10) Virgil Trucks - not good at the plate

11-15) Enos Slaughter, Don Newcombe, Howie Pollet, Ken Heintzelman, Preacher Roe
16-21) Dave Koslo, Hal Newhouser, Roy Campanella, Bob Elliott, Bobby Thomson, Bobby Doerr

1949 Ballot

1. Ted Williams, LF, Boston Red Sox: 191 OPS+ and 180 RC are 43 and 52 pts better than 2nd place in the AL
2. Jackie Robinson, 2B, Brooklyn Dodgers: would have loved to vote him first but the numbers just aren't there to displace Ted
3. Stan Musial, LF/CF, St. Louis Cardinals: 177 OPS+ is 2nd in NL, 167 RC are 1st
4. Ralph Kiner, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 186 OPS+ is 1st in NL, 156 RC are 2nd; the difference between Stan and Ralph are the partial CF bonus for Stan and -4 fielding for Ralph
5. Vern Stephens, SS, Boston Red Sox: a career year with 137 OPS+ and +10 fielding at short
6. Mel Parnell, P, Boston Red Sox: best pitcher in MLB with 158 ERA+ in 295 IP
7. Eddie Joost, SS, Philadelphia Athletics: another career year for a SS with a 137 OPS+ and +6 fielding
8. Virgil Trucks, P, Detroit Tigers: 148 ERA+ in 275 IP
9. Warren Spahn, P, Boston Braves: 302 IP leads MLB; 124 ERA+ is tied for 10th in NL
10. Bobby Doerr, 2B, Boston Red Sox: the fourth BoSox player on the list with 127 OPS+ and +11 fielding at the keystone

11. Bob Lemon, P, Cleveland Indians
12. Hal Newhouser, P, Detroit Tigers
13. Don Newcombe, P, Brooklyn Dodgers: minor league credit makes him the 2nd best pitcher in the NL
14. Enos Slaughter, RF, St. Louis Cardinals
15. Sid Gordon, 3B, New York Giants
16. Pee Wee Reese, SS, Brooklyn Dodgers
17. Bobby Thomson, CF, New York Giants
18. Roy Campanella, C, Brooklyn Dodgers
19. George Kell, 3B, Detroit Tigers
20. Cass Michaels, 2B, Chicago White Sox: I don't think I'd ever heard of Cass before looking up this year's numbers

1949 Ballot

1. Jackie Robinson 9.14 WARR
2. Ted Williams 8.68 WARR
3. Mel Parnell 7.53 WARR
4. Howie Pollet 7.12 WARR
5. Virgil Trucks 6.94 WARR
6. Stan Musial 6.59 WARR
7. Vern Stephens 6.59 WARR
8. Bob Lemon 6.57 WARR
9. Ralph Kiner 6.18 WARR
10. Bobby Thomson 5.99 WARR

Rest of the top 15
Hal Newhouser
Eddie Joost
Warren Spahn
Elmer Valo
Dave Koslo

Here’s Brock Hanke’s 1949 ballot. This one was pretty easy, because there was a lot of consensus between Win Shares and WAR. There were a few serious disconnects (Larry Doby was 20th in Win Shares, but only 43rd in WAR. Dave Koslo was 15th in WAR, but about 50th in Win Shares), but none of the disconnects made the ballot. The big issue was Jackie Robinson. Jackie finished first in WAR, and third in Win Shares. Stan Musial finished second and first. Ted Williams finished third and second, so he’s third on the ballot. To decide on Stan vs. Jackie, I looked up Jackie’s World Series. He was lousy; in fact, his career World Series record is quite poor, over several years. In 1949, he hit .188, with a Slugging Percentage of .250. He did take four walks, so his OBP was .350, but still. There was no reason to reverse his and Stan’s positions. Anyway, enough of that, here’s the list:

1 Stan Musial
2 Jackie Robsinson
3 Ted Williams
4 Ralph Kiner
5 Mel Parnell
6 Pee Wee Reese
7 Eddie Joost
8 Vern Stephens
9 Enos Slaughter
10 Virgil Trucks

1949 MMP Ballot (values in parentheses are rate-based salary estimations divided by $1M)

1. Jackie Robinson (26.85)
2. Stan Musial (22.15)
3. Ted William (20.04) - AL MMP
4. Mel Parnell (18.72) - AL MMPitcher
5. Ralph Kiner (17.96)
6. Conrado Marrero (16.50)
7. Don Newcombe (14.87) - NL MMPitcher
8. Howie Pollett (13.83)
9. Vern Stephens (13.81)
10. Pee Wee Reese (13.78)

11-15. Virgil Trucks, Enos Slaughter, Roy Campanella, Bobby Thompson, Hal Newhouser.

1949 mWAR All-Stars

c - Roy Camapnella
1b - Mickey Vernon
2b - Jackie Robinson
ss - Vern Stephens
3b - Bob Elliott
lf - Ted Williams
cf - Bobby Thompson
rf - Stan Musial
sp - Mel Parnell, Conrado Marrero, Don Newcombe, Howie Pollett, Virgil Trucks
rp - Joe Page

1949 Ballot-no postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Pennant-contender

1. Ted Williams--gawdy power & OBP totals
2. Stan Musial
3. Jackie Robinson--top 3 close
4. Ralph Kiner--gap to #4 & another gap to #6
5. Vern Stephens--also known as Nomar Garciaparra
6. Mel Parnell--top pitcher
7. Pee Wee Reese
8. Eddie Joost--an A's player with excellent OBP years before Billy Beane's Moneyball crew
9. Bob Lemon--bat helped
10.Don Newcombe--bat, play in minors & pioneer status helped edge Virgil Trucks for last spot

Not a big fan of that Connie Marrero placing. Yes he was 25-8 with a 1.58 ERA but he was also 38 and pitching in a B level minor league. The next season he made his MLB debut and was distinctly mediocre.

I'm going to copy ballots from progrockfan and Carl Goetz. If they want to revise they can before the deadline. Also if anyone wants an extension please ask.

2. Carl Goetz Posted: November 28, 2018 at 03:49 PM (#5791938)
I use a custom WAR on Baseball Gauge with 70/30 DRA/TZ split and 75/25 RA9/FIP split.
1) Jackie Robinson
2) Ted Williams
3) Stan Musial
4) Mel Parnell
5) Ralph Kiner
6) Enos Slaughter
7) Vern stephens
8) Peewee Reese
9) Bobby Thomson
10) Bob Lemon

11-15) Howie Pollet, Eddie Joost, Virgil Trucks, Don Newcombe, Roy Campanella
16-20) Cass Michaels, Elmer Valo, Dave Koslo, Hal Newhouser, Luke Appling

DL-

Eric Chalek’s MLE for Marrero have him at 260 ip / 7.5 WAR for 1949. And that’s with a manual override because the raw numbers translated to higher.

As to why Marrero was mediocre in the majors, maybe he fell off a mini-cliff when he hit 39. Maybe it was because, as Eric wrote in his Marrero MLE piece, that Marrero was a fly all pitcher and the Senators had an atrocious outfield defense. I’m not sure. But that’s just what the MLE works out to in my system.

progrockfan Posted: December 21, 2018 at 07:54 PM (#5800050)

1. Jackie Robinson - 1949 WAR leader and the top 5-tool player in MLB, with small-ball skills that transformed the game

2. Stan Musial - less pure offense than Williams, but far superior defense

3. Ted Williams - a ridiculous offensive season that would rank #1 in many years

4. Roy Campanella - defense defense defense; led in games, innings, putouts, caught stealing %, range factor/G & range factor/9, with 131 OPS+ as a bonus; I see him even with Jackie as MLB's top defender for '49

5. Mel Parnell - top MLB pitcher, led AL in both ERA & innings: an invaluable combination

6. Eddie Joost - brilliant plate selectivity and great middle-infield defense

7. Vern Stephens - a remarkable display of power from the SS position

8. Warren Spahn - the Eddie Collins of pitchers; yet another in a seemingly endless succession of premium-value seasons

9. Ralph Kiner - plenty of stick; would rank 4 slots higher with better defense

10. Don Newcombe - a touch of AAA credit factors into his making my ballot


Next 5: Pee Wee Reese, Larry Doby, Virgil Trucks, Enos Slaughter, Bobby Doerr

Still waiting for John Murphy. All new voters who have posted a prelim have voted. caiman is also eligible but I'm closing after Murphy posts his ballot.

(Oh, apologies, DL! I was waiting to see if any voter would elect to discuss, or perhaps challenge, my placement of Campanella. As this did not happen, thank you very much for moving over my prelim!)

Official 1949 MMP Ballot (no postseason bonuses and a very slight AL reduction):

Ted Williams: Best ML player and left fielder.
Stan Musial: Best NL player and ML right fielder.
Jackie Robinson: Best ML second baseman.
Ralph Kiner: Best NL left fielder.
Mel Parnell: Best ML pitcher.
Eddie Joost: Best ML shortstop.
Bob Lemon:
Pee Wee Reese: Best NL shortstop.
Vern Stephens
Virgil Trucks

Election is over. Results posted soon

Best NL pitcher: Warren Spahn