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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Monday, March 24, 2014Most Meritorious Player: 1953 DiscussionYankees beat the Dodgers again. 5th straight championship for the Yankees. Vote for 10. Player Name SH WS BBR WAR Al Rosen 43.6 10.1 Roy Campanella 33.0 7.1 Eddie Mathews 38.9 8.3 Duke Snider 25.9 9.3 Stan Musial 33.6 7.7 Red Schoendienst 26.7 6.5 Yogi Berra 27.9 4.9 Mickey Vernon 28.9 5.4 Jackie Robinson 25.3 7.0 Ray Boone 27.8 5.9 Solly Hemus 23.3 5.5 Gil Hodges 25.2 4.5 Ted Kluzewski 24.0 5.0 Richie Ashburn 25.9 6.1 Mickey Mantle 25.8 5.3 Larry Doby 27.0 4.3 Monte Irvin 17.2 4.5 Minnie Minoso 25.9 3.9 Carl Furillo 23.2 4.7 Jim Gilliam 25.0 3.9 Jim Busby 24.7 5.2 Gene Woodling 20.1 4.1 Gus Zernial 20.6 2.3 Pee Wee Reese 21.3 5.1 Johnny Logan 23.8 3.9 Alvin Dark 20.6 4.7 George Strickland 20.3 4.2 Eddie Yost 23.9 5.2 Hank Bauer 19.7 4.8 Bobby Avila 22.8 4.6 Ralph Kiner 22.5 1.6 Sherm Lollar 17.8 2.8 Ted Williams 9.1 2.0 (110 PA) Pitcher Name SH WS BBR WAR Robin Roberts 34.8 9.8 Warren Spahn 29.4 9.1 Harvey Haddix 25.3 7.4 Virgil Trucks 24.4 6.5 Billy Pierce 23.9 5.7 Mickey McDermott 21.0 4.8 Mel Parnell 22.8 4.9 Vinegar Bend Mizell 17.5 3.8 Bob Porterfield 19.7 5.2 Ruben Gomez 14.5 4.3 Curt Simmons 19.6 4.0 Mike Garcia 19.3 4.3 Ed Lopat 15.5 3.5 Don Larsen 13.0 3.7 Carl Erskine 19.5 4.2 Whitey Ford 16.2 3.5 Bob Lemon 20.9 4.2 Ellis Kinder 23.1 5.0 Hoyt Wilhelm 13.6 3.6 Satchel Paige 11.2 2.6
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1. DL from MN Posted: March 24, 2014 at 01:40 PM (#4676190)C - Roy Campanella
1B - Mickey Vernon
2B - Red Schoendienst
3B - Al Rosen
SS - Solly Hemus
LF - Stan Musial
CF - Richie Ashburn
RF - Carl Furillo
SP - Robin Roberts, Warren Spahn, Harvey Haddix, Virgil Trucks
RP - Ellis Kinder
1. Al Rosen 688PA 10.1 WAR 180 OPS+, MVP, led league in home runs, RBI, runs, slugging %, OPS, most win shares by far
Gap
2. Robin Roberts 347IP 9.8 WAR 153 ERA+, led league in innings, strikeouts, and CG
3. Roy Campanella 590PA 7.1 WAR 154 OPS+, 41 HRs, led league in RBI, 131 starts at catcher, career high in PA & games played
Gap
4. Warren Spahn 266IP 9.1 WAR 188 ERA+, led league in ERA/ERA+ & wins
5. Eddie Mathews 681PA 8.3 WAR 171 OPS+, led league in HR and OPS+
6. Duke Snider 680PA 9.3 WAR 165 OPS+, led league in slugging %, OPS, TB (I think br rfield might be slightly overstating his defense but could be convinced otherwise)
7. Stan Musial 698PA 7.7 WAR 169 OPS+, led league in doubles, BB, OBP
Gap
8. Harvey Haddix 253IP 7.4 WAR 139 ERA+, led league in SHO, 94 OPS+ as a hitter (would not be in top 10 without hitting)
9. Jackie Robinson 574PA 6.9 WAR 137 OPS+, excellent baserunning, excellent baserunning but shifted off 2B after 1952 (would not be in top ten without baserunning and defense)
10. Red Schoendienst 627PA 6.5 WAR 135 OPS+, solid defense at 2B
11-15: Yogi Berra (very close to 10th), Virgil Trucks, Ray Boone, Richie Ashburn, Mickey Vernon
16-20: Billy Pierce, Mickey Mantle, Solly Hemus, Jim Busby, Eddie Yost
If I don't post a final version, please use this one.
I agree. I remember Roberts occasionally being described as a compiler during some of our Hall of Merit discussions- as if pitching a lot is a bad thing- but looking at his career season-by-season is an eye opener and no mistake. He was the MMP pitcher in 1951, he's battling it out with Bobby Shantz in '52 and now it's between him and Spahn in '53. By bWAR, he's the top pitcher for five straight seasons ('50-'54). That's quite a run.
I spoke prematurely. I'm not as impressed with Roberts and Spahn as WAR suggested I would be. They still make the ballot but they're not #2 and 3.
1. Al Rosen, 3B, Cleveland Indians- leads AL in OPS+ by 30 points and in Runs Created by 27; also contributed +9 fielding runs at third base
2. Eddie Mathews, 3B, Boston Braves- Eddie's big breakout season; led the NL in OPS+ with 171; added 145 RC and +3 fielding runs
3. Duke Snider, CF, Brooklyn Dodgers- third in OPS+, second in RC and +8 runs in centerfield
4. Roy Campanella, C, Brooklyn Dodgers- fourth in both OPS+ and RC with +7 fielding from behind the plate; Mathews, Snider and Campy are separated by the thinnest of margins
5. Robin Roberts, P, Philadelphia Phillies- leads the majors by 75 innings pitched and the NL by over 80; oh and his 153 ERA+ is good for second best in MLB
6. Stan Musial, LF, St. Louis Cardinals- second in OPS+ and first in RC but he falls to sixth because of his limited defensive contributions
7. Warren Spahn, P, Boston Braves- an outstanding 188 ERA+ in 265 innings
8. Yogi Berra, C, New York Yankees- the second best position player in the AL behind Rosen; hit for a 141 OPS+ as a full-time catcher
9. Red Schoendienst, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals- sneaks into the top ten in OPS+ and runs created while contributing +6 fielding runs from second
10. Billy Pierce, P, Chicago White Sox- the best pitcher in the AL; 1st in innings and 2nd in ERA+
11. Ellis Kinder, RP, Boston Red Sox- Old Folks' biggest year (a 225 ERA+ in more than 100 relief innings) almost gets him onto the ballot
12. Mickey Vernon, 1B, Washington Senators- 2nd in the AL in both OPS+ and RC
13. Ray Boone, 3B/SS, Indians/Tigers
14. Virgil Trucks, P, Browns/White Sox- it's not often you see two guys who were traded mid-season crack the top 15 of an MMP ballot; 1953 was a strange year
15. Jackie Robinson, LF/3B, Brooklyn Dodgers- still a force in the field (+12 fielding runs) and on the basepaths (+6) but the move to left field hurts his value a little
16. Harvey Haddix, P, Chicago Cubs
17. Ted Kluzewski, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
18. Mel Parnell, P, Boston Red Sox
19. Solly Hemus, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
20. Carl Furillo, RF, Brooklyn Dodgers
I remember those discussions. I recall asking which pitcher would you want if you had perfect knowledge of their careers: Roberts or Koufax? It's pretty obvious the former, but you wouldn't get that impression if you followed the media. As for the argument that Roberts was a compiler, what would his rate stats have been if he hadn't been worked so hard?
...and he was doing it during a great era for hitters and not during the Deadball Era, either.
That has to be the reason. Management was just hoping Byrd would turn it around in '53, but he just never did.
1) Robin Roberts - 346.7 IP with an ERA+ of 153. If Robin Roberts had been a Yankee instead of a Phillie he'd be mentioned as one of the all-time greats
2) Al Rosen - Hits a little bit better than Mathews and Musial. Above average fielding season
3) Warren Spahn
4) Roy Campanella - C bonus
5) Eddie Mathews - nearly as much bat as Rosen, less glove
6) Duke Snider
7) Stan Musial
8) Harvey Haddix
9) Red Schoendienst
10) Yogi Berra - C bonus
11-15) Virgil Trucks, Mickey Vernon, Jackie Robinson, Ray Boone, Billy Pierce
Looking at pitchers (old style equivalent record, not correcting for defensive support):
Pierce: 20-10 (bad hitter)
Trucks: 19-11 (OK hitter)
Parnell: 16-10 (OK hitter)
Lopat: 13-7
Kinder: 9-3; 13-7 with inherited runner adjustment (excellent hitter, but that's low-impact for a relief pitcher)
Roberts: 25-13
Spahn: 21-9 (OK hitter)
Haddix: 17-11 (excellent hitter)
Simmons: 16-11 (bad hitter)
Mizell: 15-9 (dreadful hitter)
Gomez: 13-9
That's Ruben Gomez, not Lefty.
About Robin Roberts: it's a temptation to think, when looking at what he did, that, "Back in those days pitchers pitched a lot more innings." No, they didn't. This wasn't the late 60's-early 70's when lots of pitchers really did pitch all those innings. But in the early-mid 50's? NO ONE else was doing what Roberts was doing. Look at Warren Spahn, an icon of durability and consistency. Roberts had 80 more IP than Spahn in 1953. Roberts allowed 17 more runs than his teammate, Curt Simmons - in 109 more innings! And Simmons was a pretty good pitcher.
If I try to rank the pitchers, I need also to deal with the fact that they're being compared inside their own leagues - and the NL was stronger. My preliminary pitcher order, subject to possible later revisions:
Roberts
-- gap --
Spahn
-- gap --
Haddix
Trucks
Pierce (Pierce was the better pitcher, but Trucks makes up for that with his bat)
Simmons
Mizell
Parnell
And I'll at least look at Kinder, the relief specialist.
Lopat had an impressive ERA, but Yankee Stadium was playing as an extreme pitchers park and he only had 178 innings.
So it's between Trucks and Pierce for the top AL pitcher spot - but both are certainly outside a 10-man overall ballot.
---
In our regular HoM elections, there's no surer way for a voter to advertise that he is an extreme peak voter than to vote for Al Rosen. And this was the year that was the peak of Rosen's Peak. It was a season for the ages.
Pierce: 19-11 (bad hitter)
Trucks: 18-11 (OK hitter)
Parnell: 16-11 (OK hitter)
Lopat: 12-8
(I don't know how to deal with relievers in this system, so I left out Kinder)
Roberts: 25-13
Spahn: 21-9 (narrowing the gap between Roberts and Spahn - Roberts did have a good defense behind him)
Haddix: 17-11 (excellent hitter)
Simmons: 15-12 (bad hitter)
Mizell: 14-11 (dreadful hitter)
Gomez: 13-9
On the other hand, for Roberts ... well, Richie Ashburn had 496 putouts in 1953, which is a whole heaping lot. The synergy between Roberts and Ashburn has been written about. Roberts was a fly ball pitcher, and as a hard thrower, he wasn't easy to pull. So he generated a lot of fly balls, and in particular a lot of fly balls to center. If you're going to pitch like that, it sure helps to have a CF who's going to turn those fly balls into outs.
Didn't realize you were such an old f**t.
Vinegar Bend Mizell was elected to Congress in large part because of redistricting. Congressman Nick Galifianakis (Zach's uncle, and reportedly the inspiration for the movie The Campaign in which Zach co-starred with Will Farrell) represented Mizell's district but was pushed into a different district when North Carolina was forced to redistrict under the Voting Rights Act, clearing the way for Mizell to run and be elected.
-- MWE
Oh, and OCF, you are doubtless correct that the Brownie defense in any year of the early 1950s was probably lousy. The whole team was lousy. But for hard throwers, which Trucks was at that time, the close RF fence was probably a bigger factor. You didn't have to be a real good outfielder to play RF in Sportsman's. There wasn't much territory, and balls that hit the screen did not do what they do in Fenway, bounce back past the outfielder. They just dropped to the ground. So there was no component of playing the wall to take into account. The combination of bad fielders and short RF was pretty brutal, I would imagine. But you could get away with a weak RF in that ballpark. Please note that I am not about to argue with Richie Ashburn's defense. That would be a huge plus for anyone. But Curt Simmons, who threw just as hard as Roberts and was more or less contemporary, did not put up Robin's IP numbers. - Brock
If Roberts had pitched for Casey Stengel he wouldn't have thrown more than 250-260 innings a season, which would have a) cut down on his monster peak seasons and b) probably stopped him from hitting a brick wall as he did from 1957-61.
Anyone want to argue that that earns him a place in the top ten?
Here's an odd pitching record: Stan Musial. His pitching record consists of one game pitched. That's all. No IP, no runs, no nothing. What happened? Stan had started out in the minors as a pitcher, but had blown out his arm, leading to his conversion to outfielder. For a publicity stunt, the Cardinals had Stan pitch to one hitter in a meaningless game. The hitter grounded into an error. Errors don't go on the pitching record, unless the guy scores, which he didn't. If you look up his pitching record, Stan will have one game pitched and NOTHING else, unless they're listing Batters Faced, in which case, he will have one BF with no recorded result.
DL - You work real hard, so that us geezers don't have to administer things like the MMP project. You are welcome on my lawn any time. - Brock Hanke
As someone who was on the other side for many a year, I concur.
The winner for me this year is easy. By WAR/Win Shares/WSAB, Rosen had the best season by a 3B in MLB history (fWAR rates his year as 7th).
Man oh man, why did he have to be rated a 3 defensively in strat?
As usual, prelim has no adjustments of any kind
1-Al Rosen
2-Robin Roberts
3-Duke Snider
4-Eddie Mathews
5-Stan Musial
6-Warren Spahn
7-Roy Campanella
8-Harvey Haddix
9-Mickey Vernon
10-Jackie Robinson
The best of the rest.
Ellis Kinder
Yogi Berra
Ray Boone
Vinegar Bend Mizell
Red Scheondiest
Last but not least-a shout out to Virgil Trucks for finishing 18th in my ballot but first in being an Uncle.
1) Al Rosen
2) Eddie Mathews
3) Warren Spahn
4) Robin Roberts
5) Duke Snider
6) Roy Campanella
7) Stan Musial
8) Harvey Haddix
9) Mickey Vernon
10) Yogi Berra
I'll be more on point in the future
Rk Player WAR ERA+ SV WPA WHIP GF GS IP Age Tm Lg G W L ERA BA
1 Ellis Kinder 4.5 225 27 3.699 1.140 51 0 107.0 38 BOS AL 69 10 6 1.85 .215
2 Hoyt Wilhelm 3.6 143 15 -0.293 1.407 39 0 145.0 30 NYG NL 68 7 8 3.04 .236
3 Lew Burdette 3.4 122 8 4.466 1.331 24 13 175.0 26 MLN NL 46 15 5 3.24 .264
4 Satchel Paige 3.0 119 11 -1.880 1.304 34 4 117.1 46 SLB AL 57 3 9 3.53 .257
5 Hal White 2.9 145 7 0.249 1.411 27 0 95.0 34 TOT ML 59 6 5 2.94 .265
6 Clem Labine 2.8 155 7 3.052 1.106 21 7 110.1 26 BRO NL 37 11 6 2.77 .225
7 Fritz Dorish 2.5 118 18 1.432 1.318 37 6 145.2 31 CHW AL 55 10 6 3.40 .254
8 Johnny Hetki 1.9 113 3 0.958 1.293 31 2 118.1 31 PIT NL 54 3 6 3.95 .267
9 Morrie Martin 1.8 97 7 1.287 1.388 41 11 156.1 30 PHA AL 58 10 12 4.43 .262
10 Bob Milliken 1.7 128 2 0.033 1.156 12 10 117.2 26 BRO NL 37 8 4 3.37 .215
11 Jim Hughes 1.6 124 9 1.788 1.412 20 0 85.2 30 BRO NL 48 4 3 3.47 .245
12 Ernie Johnson 1.5 149 0 -0.301 1.247 10 1 81.0 29 MLN NL 36 4 3 2.67 .262
I think the short answer is that the A's just plain worked him too hard. Byrd was doing fine through mid-July; on July 18, he threw a complete game win against the Indians that left him with a 10-10 record and a 4.13 ERA. He threw two innings in relief the very next day (it was game two of a doubleheader) and got lit up, giving up five runs. From there through the end of the season, Byrd went 1-10 with a 7.92 ERA.
I don't understand the WPA entry for Satchel Paige, or Wilhelm, either, although I'm just going to make a case for Paige. Can someone clear this up? I think the acronym means "Win Probability Added", which, I would guess, is probably a Markov analysis. Satchel pitched 117 innings, with 11 saves and an ERA+ of 119. Yes, his W/L is 3/9, but he was playing for the Browns. His ERA is high for a closer, but he was at least a half-time starter, I think. And yet, his WPA is almost two games negative. I don't see how he could possibly have been that bad, given those numbers, 46 years old or no. - Brock
Yeah, that does sound like major overwork to me. :-) Really stupid, especially considering where the A's were in the standings at the the time.
The short narrative answer for that is that Roberts' brilliance came at the beginning of his career, followed by 11 seasons ranging from Pretty Good but Nothing Special to Mediocre. Whereas Koufax finished with five Super Seasons and left everyone wanting more.
And then there's the simple matter of exposure. Koufax pitched brilliantly in four World Series and was over featured on GOTW during several white hot pennant races. Whereas Roberts never made the postseason, and while he was at his peak between 1950 and 1955, the GOTW was still in its infancy, and wasn't even around during the Phillies' one serious run for the pennant.** Nothing much Roberts could have done about any of that.
**From a narrative standpoint, Roberts' sole peak performance was when he outpitched Don Newcombe on the final day of 1950 to clinch the pennant for the Phillies. How many people alive today saw that game, compared to how many people still alive today saw Jim Lonborg's final day heroics in a nationally televised 1967 finale?
Actually, that wasn't quite what Stengel was doing. From Chris Jaffe's evaluation of Stengel in his book (excerpted here if you are interested):
Chris also makes this point, which I have also noted:
Stengel wasn't exactly the first manager to do it - Bucky Harris probably deserves the credit for that, with Firpo Marberry and later Garland Braxton in Washington - but he was definitely the first manager to make it a key part of in-game strategy, and his success with first Page, then Johnny Sain, and then Bob Grim (even before Ryne Duren), along with the success that the Dodgers were having with a similar strategy may have hastened its acceptance. In 1950 Stengel was almost the only manager using an ace regularly; by 1960 everyone was doing it.
-- MWE
I use a combination of WAR systems to get an average WAR for each player. I use that number to get a Dan R-style salary estimation. I divide that salary by $1 million and add 3 times the average WAR to that dividend. I use a 20% bonus for catchers and do not credit postseason except as a tiebreaker.
1. Al Rosen (57.74)
2. Robin Roberts (56.95)
3. Roy Campanella (50.94)
4. Eddie Mathews (47.50)
5. Warren Spahn (47.34)
6. Duke Snider (47.15)
7. Harvey Haddix (37.20)
8. Yogi Berra (36.30)
9. Stan Musial (36.16)
10. Jackie Robinson (34.96)
11-15. Schoendienst, Ashburn, Pierce, Trucks, Boone.
Boone's position is actually kind of straightforward for 1953. He started the year with the Cleveland Indians and was utilized entirely as a shortstop. However, he was traded to the Detroit Tigers on June 15. At that point, he had played 31 games at short for Cleveland. The Tigers then deployed Boone primarily at third base. He had 97 games for Detroit at 3rd, plus another 3 at shortstop. So he spent 75% of his time at third base, including 97% of his time with the Tigers. I'd call that a third baseman.
Of course, as you note, he moved around a bit over his career- playing shortstop for Cleveland, third base for Detroit and then some first base later in his career. His career totals are 510 games at 3B, 464 at SS and 285 at 1B (plus 5 innings in 1 game at 2B). So I'd call him a third baseman for his career as well.
Gilliam is also straightforward for 1953. Later on, he would take on more of a utility role and play all over the field but for his rookie season in 1953, he played entirely at second base for 149 games.
I'd also consider Gilliam a second baseman for his career. He had 1046 games at 2B, compared to 761 at 3rd and 222 in the Outfield. For games started, he's at 969, 598 and 207. So he played and started at second base more than half the time.
NL
C Roy Campanella
1B Gil Hodges
2B Red Schoendienst
3B Eddie Mathews
SS Solly Hemus
OF Duke Snider
OF Richie Ashburn
OF Stan Musial
Starters
Robin Roberts
Warren Spahn
Harvey Haddix
Carl Erskine
Reliever
Hal White
AL
C Yogi Berra
1B Mickey Vernon
2B Billy Goodman
3B Al Rosen
SS George Strickland
OF Mickey Mantle
OF Jim Busby
OF Larry Doby
Starters
Virgil Trucks
Billy pierce
Bob Porterfield
Mike Garcis
Reliever
Ellis Kinder
Note: I have chosen the 3 top rated outfielders in each league, without regard for which field they played.
1. Al Rosen - this one could end up unanimous. It was just an incredible season in which Rosen just missed winning the TC. In fact, it made such an impact on the media in those days that Rosen was also selected by TSN as the Major League's best third baseman in 1954, a year in which Mathews completely dominated him but Rosen got a large carryover effect from 1953 plus being part of the 111-win Indians.
2. Robin Roberts - tough to choose here - Spahn actually pitched better, even with all the adjustments I could think of, but Roberts just has so many more innings I have to give that credit.
3. Warren Spahn - when you have a HOF career with many outstanding seasons, sometimes it's tough to pick the best one, but I think it's pretty clear this was Warren's best, and that's saying a lot.
4. Roy Campanella - catchers at the time just did not hit like this. Phenomenal season.
5. Eddie Mathews - great breakout season for the young star - just a bit behind Rosen - the Braves were starting to put the pieces together that would lead them to championship glory in a few years.
6. Harvey Haddix - excellent year just got overshadowed by Roberts and Spahn.
7. Red Shoendienst - brilliant all around season in which Red did it all very well.
8. Stan Musial - down year for The Man - actually, he did quite well but it was just a year where there were several other players at a level way above their norms. Stan just put up the kind of numbers he put up every year. His consistency was amazing.
9. Duke Snider - started his string of 5 straight seasons with at least 40 HRs. Looking at the '53 Dodgers, they look stronger at first glance than the '55 version - still trying to figure out how this team lost to Yankees in the Series?
10. Yogi Berra - for all the jokes about him, Yogi was really good. He's going to show up on these top 10 lists for about a decade! Maybe I just answered my question in #9...
Close but no cigar - Mickey McDermott, Mickey Vernon, Mickey Mantle - good time to be a Mickey!
Batters: start with RAA (using XR runs), adjust for park, position and defense (average of TZ, and DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)
Pitchers: start with RAA, adjust for quality of opposition, park, and team defense (average of TZ, DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)
1. Robin Roberts 8.81 WARR
2. Al Rosen 8.73 WARR
3. Eddie Mathews 8.23 WARR
4. Warren Spahn 8.09 WARR
5. Duke Snider 7.65 WARR
6. Stan Musial 6.93 WARR
7. Roy Campanella 6.54 WARR
8. Harvey Haddix 6.12 WARR
9. Richie Ashburn 5.7 WARR
10. Jackie Robinson 5.61 WARR
rest of the top 20
Virgil Trucks
Gil Hodges
Billy Pierce
Red Schoendienst
Solly Hemus
Bob Porterfield
Mickey Vernon
Yogi Berra
Ray Boone
Jim Busby
Casey had a lot of interchangeable parts.
During Stengel's Yankee career, Ford's starts by opponent:
Chicago 46
Cleveland 37
Washington 36
St. Louis/Baltimore 36
Philadelphia/KC 25
Boston 22
Detroit 21
Tommy Byrne, who didn't pitch for Stengel in all of those seasons, had more starts against the Tigers than Ford did, so it wasn't just lefty/righty stuff.
-- MWE
1. Rosen
2. Roberts
3. Campanella
4. Snider
5. Mathews
6. Spahn
7. Musial
8. Schoendienst
9. J Robinson
10. Berra
I would choose Pierce over Trucks for my top AL pitcher
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