Noticeable League Adjustment in DanR's WAR this year

NL 0.978
AL 0.94

By position

C - Campanella
1B - Musial
2B - McDougald
SS - Banks
3B - Mathews
LF - Williams
CF - Mays
RF - Kaline
SP - Pierce, Hoeft, Wynn, Ford
RP - Freeman

1955 Prelim- AL Only

1. Mickey Mantle, CF, New York- league leader in OPS+ and runs created; now an asset on defense as well (+10 fielding runs)
2. Al Kaline, RF, Detroit- career year overshadowed by Mick; second in OPS+ and RC; adds +10 fielding from right
3. Ted Williams, LF, Boston- a 209 OPS+ would have led the league had he qualified; still made top ten in RC even though it's a counting stat
4. Billy Pierce, P, Chicago- best pitcher in the AL by a wide margin
5. Frank Sullivan, P, Boston- second in ERA+ with 149; first in innings with 260
6. Whitey Ford, P, New York- the first appearance for the Chairman of the Board
7. Yogi Berra, C, New York- top ten in OPS+ with 120; +3 defense from behind the plate
8. Al Smith, RF/3B, Cleveland- I like the big hitting right fielder better than bbref's WAR; time at CF and 3B offsets negative defense
9. Early Wynn, P, Cleveland
10. Herb Score, P, Cleveland

1955 Prelim- NL Only

1. Willie Mays, CF, New York- another dominant season by the Say Hey Kid; 1st in OPS+ and runs created with another +10 fielding in center field
2. Duke Snider, CF, Brooklyn- the new york centerfielders will finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd on my ballot
3. Eddie Mathews, 3B, Milwaukee- 2nd in OPS+ with 170, 4th in runs created
4. Ernie Banks, SS, Chicago- top ten in OPS+ and RC with +14 fielding at shortstop
5. Roy Campanella, C, Brooklyn- 150 OPS+ from the batter's box; +2 behind the plate
6. Stan Musial, 1B/RF, St. Louis- Stan in decline is still better than all but a few
7. Ted Kluszewski, 1B, Cincinnati
8. Richie Ashburn, CF, Philadelphia
9. Robin Roberts, P, Philadelphia- the best NL pitcher
10. Wally Post, RF, Cincinnati
11. Hank Aaron, RF/2B, Milwaukee

1955 Prelim- Combined

1. Mickey Mantle, CF, New York Yankees- league leader in OPS+ and runs created; now an asset on defense as well (+10 fielding runs)
2. Willie Mays, CF, New York Giants- another dominant season by the Say Hey Kid; 1st in OPS+ and runs created with another +10 fielding in center field

Mantle and Mays finished tied for first in my system; after further digging I gave the nod to Mantle although Mays played in the tougher league

3. Duke Snider, CF, Brooklyn Dodgers- the new york centerfielders rank 1st, 2nd and 3rd on my ballot
4. Eddie Mathews, 3B, Milwaukee Braves- 2nd in OPS+ with 170, 4th in runs created
5. Ernie Banks, SS, Chicago Cubs- top ten in OPS+ and RC with +14 fielding at shortstop
6. Al Kaline, RF, Detroit Tigers- career year overshadowed by Mick; second in OPS+ and RC; adds +10 fielding from right
7. Roy Campanella, C, Brooklyn Dodgers- 150 OPS+ from the batter's box; +2 behind the plate
8. Ted Williams, LF, Boston Red Sox- a 209 OPS+ would have led the league had he qualified; still made top ten in RC even though it's a counting stat
9. Billy Pierce, P, Chicago Cubs- best pitcher in MLB by a wide margin
10. Stan Musial, 1B/RF, St. Louis Cardinals- Stan in decline is still better than all but a few

11. Ted Kluszewski, 1B, Cincinnati
12. Frank Sullivan, P, Boston- second in ERA+ with 149; first in innings with 260
13. Richie Ashburn, CF, Philadelphia
14. Robin Roberts, P, Philadelphia- the best NL pitcher
15. Whitey Ford, P, New York- the first appearance for the Chairman of the Board

1955 prelim.
no postseason.
10% catcher bonus.
various "uber-stat" systems factored in.

1 Mantle, Mickey 9595
2 Mays, Willie 9391
3 Snider, Duke 8135
4 Kaline, Al 7429
5 Mathews, Eddie 7378
6 Banks, Ernie 7273
7 Ashburn, Richie 6490
8 Williams, Ted 6300
9 Campanella, Roy 6264
10 Pierce, Billy 6245

11 Roberts, Robin 6130
12 Musial, Stan 6100
13 Aaron, Hank 5956
14 Newcombe, Don 5905
15 Logan, Johnny 5493

Mantle tops Mays in 4 of the 6 systems I'm currently using while they tie in another and Mays tops Mantle in 1.
Oddly enough, the system with the biggest difference between the two of them is the system that Mays tops Mantle (which, FYI, is Baseball Gauge WAR [that is the downloadable version of their system, not the Baseball Reference WAR that they normally use now]).

Where do you get strength of league adjustment and how do you apply it ?

Here’s my preliminary take on 1955 – I see the NL as much better competition than the AL. I also have some serious issues with some of the fielding numbers, as has often been referenced in other WAR discussions.

That’s why, even with Mantle’s supposed WAR superiority over Mays this season, I go with the following as my listed top 10 players for 1955 – I guess I’m really saying I don’t buy Mantle’s defensive superiority over Mays for a second. I think Mays had better range and a better arm. I think it showed over a period of several years.

1. Mays CF
2. Mantle CF
3. Kaline RF
4. Banks SS
5. Snider CF
6. Mathews 3B
7. Pierce P
8. Williams LF
9. Campanella C
10.Musial 1B

Others who were close: Nellie Fox, Gil McDougald, Richie Ashburn, Yogi Berra, Robin Roberts, Bob Friend, Don Newcombe (top NL Pitcher), Early Wynn, Herb Score, Frank Sullivan, Hank Aaron.

DanR's adjustment isn't league strength but standard deviations in run scoring.

1955 Prelim

1) Willie Mays
2) Mickey Mantle - Mays and Mantle are even before the league adjustment
3) Duke Snider - loads of good CF
4) Ernie Banks - good glove
5) Roy Campanella - C bonus
6) Billy Pierce
7) Ted Williams - he's rated as an above average fielder at age 36. Not sure if I believe that one. Best rate production.
8) Al Kaline - 16 years of age difference between Williams and Kaline
9) Eddie Mathews - bad glove
10) Stan Musial

11-14) Richie Ashburn, Bill Hoeft, Gil McDougald, Johnny Logan

Where do you get strength of league adjustment and how do you apply it ?

I don't bother. From past experience, my standard system reveals the stronger league. For example, this year, 7 of my top 10 hail from the National League without any adjustments. The one time that I tried to incorporate an additional league strength adjustment, it threw my results way out of balance and other posters rightly challenged me on it.

Well, good news. I just bought a new computer. It was, including Microsoft Office, the cheapest computer I've ever bought, and also the most powerful, by far. Thank you, Moore's Law.

Bad news. They didn't have all the features I need in anything they had in stock (remember, I'm trying to produce comic books on this, too), so they had to special order it. It should show up in a week or so. On the other hand, 1955 looks like an easy year to MMP. And then I get to play with my NEW toy and go back to BB-Ref as if it actually existed. - Brock

Nuxhall or Newcombe for best NL pitcher is close. Newcombe didn't do much in his one World Series start either. Nuxhall is clearly the better pitcher but Newk hit .359/.395/.632

1955 Prelim.
The usual blend of WAR systems.Players are given 10 points for finishing first, 9 for second, 8 for third and so on. % is percentage of total possible first place points. No adjustments, no postseason. Comments come later other than noting that 55 was an awful year for pitching.

Mickey Mantle 66.67%
Willie Mays 60.00%
Duke Snider 51.67%
Ernie Banks 45.00%
Eddie Mathews 38.33%
Al Kaline 33.33%
Richie Ashburn 16.67%
Ted Williams 16.67%
Henry Aaron 10.00%
Stan Musial 6.67%
Roy Campanella 6.67%
Billy Pierce 6.67%
Johnny Logan 3.33%
Ted Kluszewski 3.33%
Al Smith 1.67%

@DL from MN post #13 (regarding best NL pitcher)-
Where do you see Robin Roberts? I've got him slightly ahead of Newcombe for best NL pitcher (and just behind Pierce for best ML pitcher)?

Roberts only scores 0.6 PWAA in 1955. He pitched 323 innings of essentially average baseball. That's a great accomplishment but I'd rather have Nuxhall's rate with 50 fewer innings.

1955 was one of Billy Pierce's best seasons. I've always been surprised Pierce didn't get more attention on HOF ballots & that he didn't appear on the 2010 Golden Era VC ballot. Pierce had 211-169 .555 3.27 with a 119 ERA+ & 53.3 WAR. Pierce looks a little better by traditional rather than advanced metrics but is by no means a horrible HOF candidate and I hope to see him make Dec's Golden Era VC ballot.

1955 All Star Teams

NL

C Roy Campanella
1b Stan Musial
2b Red Schoendienst
3b Eddie Mathews
SS Johnny Logan
OF Duke Snider
OF Willie Mays
OF Richie Ashburn

P Bob Friend
P Robin Roberts
P Don Newcombe
P Joe Nuxhall

RP Hersh Freeman

AL

C Yogi Berra
1b Vic Power
2b Gil McDougald
3b Ray Boone
SS Chico Carrasquel
OF Ted Williams
OF Mickey Mantle
OF Al Kaline

P Billy Pierce
P Early Wynn
P Billy Hoeft
P Herb Score

RP Ray Narleski

Whoops!! I guess Ernie Banks is better choice for NL shortstop.

Would a Snider/Mays/Ashburn outfield give up a hit?

1955 Preliminary Ballot

Batters: start with RAA (using XR runs), adjust for park, position and defense (average of TZ, and DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

Pitchers: start with RAA, adjust for quality of opposition, park, and team defense (average of TZ, DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

1. Willie Mays 9.10 WARR As most everyone has mentioned: Mays and Mantle are extremely close. Mays gains the edge with better fielding numbers
2. Mickey Mantle 8.88 WARR
3. Duke Snider 7.35 WARR
4. Eddie Mathews 7.26 WARR Mathews and Banks are essentially the same. I gave the edge to Mathews because more of Banks' rating is based on fielding. Must reconsider this before
5. Ernie Banks 7.26 WARR final ballot.
6. Al Kaline 6.97 WARR
7. Richie Ashburn 6.75 WARR
8. Ted Williams 6.66 WARR Amazing, since his first game of the season was on May 28.
9. Billy Pierce 6.00 WARR
10. Stan Musial 5.77 WARR

Rest of top 20
Ted Kluszewski
Early Wynn
Gil McDougald
Roy Campanella
Johnny Logan
Gil Hodges
Hank Aaron
Billy Hoeft
Bob Friend I gave the nod to Friend because he was the better pitcher. Roberts matched his WARR because he was a better hitter than Friend.
Robin Roberts

This was certainly the age of the CF: as they claimed the top 3 spots on the ballot and 4 spots in the top 10.

I gave the edge to Mathews because more of Banks' rating is based on fielding.

Fielding ratings are compressed in this era compared to what fielding numbers give today. It is possible that Banks' good year is being understated and Mathews poor year is as well.

I've always been surprised Pierce didn't get more attention on HOF ballots & that he didn't appear on the 2010 Golden Era VC ballot. Pierce had 211-169 .555 3.27 with a 119 ERA+ & 53.3 WAR.

Two of Pierce's Similarity Score Top 10 comps are in the Hall, albeit weak selections (Newhouser and Catfish), and others include Vida Blue, Luis Tiant and Hershiser. He garnered MVP votes five times in six seasons from 1952-57 and would make seven All-Star squads. If Billy Pierce was not quite worthy of Cooperstown, he was still a very, very good pitcher.

Relief pitchers in 1955:

I'm not a big fan of WAR for relievers in this time frame, because of the way the role was changing. Gorman, Grissom, Narleski, and Kinder were being used in the manner of relief aces of the late 50s/early 60s; Freeman, Consuegra, Miller, Face, and LaPalme were not. I'd probably go Gorman, then Kinder, then Grissom.

The Yankees had two guys - Jim Konstanty and Tom Morgan - who were excellent in high leverage out of the pen in a combined 145 innings, but neither of whom is here, largely because they pitched in front of the best defense in the major leagues and took full advantage of it. Both had K/BB ratios below 1 and K/9 below 3.

-- MWE

My personal memory of Billy Pierce is not strong, and is late in his career, but the New Historical filled in most of the blanks. Pierce had three things go against his reputation during his career.

1) He was a little guy, as ballplayers go. Baseball people tend to respect size, unless the small guy has unreal agility and plays the middle infield.

2) Billy was wild when he came up. It took him two partial and two full seasons to gain control of the strike zone (Yay! My new computer can go to BB-Ref and look stuff like this up.). The New Historical says that this happened when he and manager Paul Richards realized that he just could not control his curve ball, and needed to scrap it in favor of a slider. In any case, it happened very dramatically, but by the time it happened, he already had a reputation for wildness. Those reputations are hard to shake. I remember Billy as being wild, and I could not possibly have seen him when that was still true.

3) One of his managers, Al Lopez, who was VERY highly regarded as a man who really knew his baseball, sabotaged Billy's reputation for years by saying that Billy could not win without his best fastball, and he'd rather have Early Wynn or somebody in there for a crucial game because of that. I, personally, think that Al Lopez deserved a severe lecture for this, but then, I can't catch major league pitching at all. The combination of these three negatives is probably what kept Billy's reputation below his actual ability. If the New Historical rankings are right, he's a borderline Hall of Famer, but on the good side of the border.

On another topic, it has always seemed to me that the 1950s had an unusual number of top end defensive center fielders. You start with Mays and Flood, but add in Busby, Lemon, and 3-4 others. I don't know if there's ever been a time period where CF defense was so good overall. And it does make sense. The 1950s was the decade of the high fastball, the walk and the homer. Not a lot of grounders. Lots of work for CFs. And, therefore, a demand for good gloves. The odd thing is that a lot of these guys could actually hit, and I mean beyond just Willlie and Mickey. Has anyone here looked at that issue? I'm not completely sure how to devise a study, because you end up ranking a time period's CFs relative to each other. Jim Busby never got much mention for his glove, because he wasn't Willie or Curt or somebody. He was an A or A- CF, instead of an A+. But compared to the norms of another time, he might grade out as A+.

I probably should mention that my memory of this year, 1955, is VERY weak. I just got into seeing ballgames in 1954, so everything was new, and started figuring out how the game actually worked in 1956, but 1955 is a lost year. I can't separate it from 1954. So, if a comment I make seems completely wrong, please call me on it. Thanks, - Brock Hanke

Also, boy, do all the ace relievers in DanG's list look very much the same, especially in WAR. The whole league seems to be infested with interchangeable relievers. That's odd, and I don't know what to make of it. - Brock

AndrewJ & Brock, thanks for adding some insights and opinions on Pierce. Pierce is a group of pitchers, along with Jim Kaat, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, & David Cone that are all right at or above my personal HOF line. I find pitchers much tougher to rate than position players

1955 World Series

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Campanella 7  27  4  7  3  0  2  4  3  3  .259  .333  .593  .926  0  0  1
Furillo 7  27  4  8  1  0  1  3  3  5  .296  .387  .444  .832  0  0  0
Hodges 7  24  2  7  0  0  1  5  3  2  .292  .357  .417  .774  0  1  0
Snider 7  25  5  8  1  0  4  7  2  6  .320  .370  .840  1.210  0  0  0

Bauer 6  14  1  6  0  0  0  1  0  1  .429  .429  .429  .857  0  1  0
Berra 7  24  5  10  1  0  1  2  3  1  .417  .500  .583  1.083  0  1  0
Mantle 3  10  1  2  0  0  1  1  0  2  .200  .200  .500  .700  0  0  0  
McDougald 7  27  2  7  0  0  1  1  2  6  .259  .310  .370  .681  0  0  1

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Newcombe 1  1  9.53  0  1  0  0  5.2  8  6  6  2  4  1.765  

WFord 2  2  2.12  2  0  0  1  17.0  13  6  4  8  10  1.235

Pretty terrific performances from the catchers and Snider.

DL, I'm going on vacation for the next couple of weeks and will only have sporadic internet access. Would you please move my full prelim over to the ballot thread once it's open? Thanks.

Mr. C in #21 -- and others who list multiple NL pitchers ahead of Newcombe -- are you guys ignoring Newcombe's hitting? (For that matter, can someone refresh my memory on which metrics include pitchers' hitting and which ones don't?)

I include pitcher hitting in my evaluation. Indeed, Newcombe has more WARR from his hitting than he does from his pitching.

Win Shares definitely includes hitting (and fielding). I think most, if not all, versions of WAR do, too, if you're careful to look for the Total WAR instead of just the pitching, hitting or fielding WAR components. - Brock

Tubbs - I think everyone has more trouble ranking both pitchers and fielders than hitters. The problem is that fielding and pitching interact to form "run prevention." Assigning just how much of run prevention to give to fielders and how much to pitchers is a horrible Hobson's Choice. - Brock Hanke

1955 is of course the Year of Rock and Roll. Chuck Berry, Little Richard, Bill Haley, Fats Domino, Johnny Cash, Elvis Presley. The best albums are all jazz - Diz and Getz, Miles Davis (a lot of Miles Davis), Charlie Mingus, Thelonious Monk and Frank Sinatra's "Wee Small Hours".

My prelim, no postseason bonus
1. Mays
2. Mantle
3. Snider
4. Kaline
5. Campanella
6. Banks
7. Mathews
8. Roberts
9. Pierce
10.Berra

1955 Prelim Ballot:

I use a combination of WAR systems to get an average WAR for each player. I use that number to get a Dan R-style salary estimation. I divide that salary by $1 million and add 3 times the average WAR to that dividend. I use a 20% bonus for catchers and do not credit postseason except as a tiebreaker.

1. Willie Mays (54.16)
2. Mickey Mantle (52.22) – AL MMP
3. Duke Snider (43.39)
4. Ernie Banks (41.42)
5. Al Kaline (40.88)
6. Eddie Mathews (38.79)
7. Ted Williams (37.72)
8. Roy Campanella (36.10)
9. Richie Ashburn (34.99)
10. Billy Pierce (34.42) - MM Pitcher

11-15. Logan, Musial, Aaron, Newcombe (top NL pitcher), Roberts.

I already posted my ballot for 1955.I am a longtime lurker and infrequent poster. I love baseball history and am a lifelong Dodger fan. I also have some time this summer so I can commit to being around for the rest of the 50's. I look at WAR, WAA, and WS and I think the NL was stronger than the AL from the mid -fifties thru the late sixties.

1. Willie Mays - CF - League quality plus 50 homers and 20 steals pushes him ahead of Mantle
2. Mickey Mantle - CF
3. Duke Snider - CF - 1955 was one of the years where it really was Willie, Mickey and the Duke.
4. Ernie Banks - SS
5. Eddie Mathews - 3B
6. Al Kaline - RF
7. Billy Pierce - P
8. Ted Williams LF
9. Roy Campanella C
10 Stan Musial

11. Don Newcombe - P
12. Richie Ashburn - CF
13. Robin Roberts - P
14.Whitey Ford -P
15. Frank Sullivan - P