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Monday, July 21, 2014

Most Meritorious Player: 1956 Ballot

For 1956, each voter should rank their top 10 players from both leagues combined.

Balloting is scheduled to close at 4pm EDT on 6 August 2014.

Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 5 August 2014.

For detailed rules see one of our previous ballots.

DL from MN Posted: July 21, 2014 at 10:29 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: July 21, 2014 at 12:37 PM (#4755199)
Posting early - summer and all
   2. MrC Posted: July 21, 2014 at 01:44 PM (#4755253)
Batters: start with RAA (using customized linear weights), adjust for park, position and defense (using DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

Pitchers: Calculate WAA using a pitchers FIP and calculate WAA using a pitcher's RA9.

To calculate WAA, first calculate RAA either RA9(or FIP), adjust for quality of opposition and park. Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Blend the FIP WAA and RA9 WAA to get the pitcher's WAA. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

1. Mickey Mantle 9.47 WARR not just an AL triple crown, but a ML triple crown. Outstanding
2. Willie Mays 6.64 WARR
3. Early Wynn 6.18 WARR
4. Al Kaline 5.95 WARR
5. Hank Aaron 5.85 WARR
6. Duke Snider 5.77 WARR
7. Herb Score 5.76 WARR
8. Junior Gilliam 5.64 WARR
9. Yogi Berra 5.33 WARR
10. Eddie Mathews 5.26 WARR

Rest of top 20
Frank Robinson
Richie Ashburn
Charlie Maxwell
Richie Ashburn
Tom Brewer
Don Newcombe
Johnny Antonelli
Minnie Minoso
Ted Williams
Frank Lary
Warren Spahn

I have had some time this month to reevaluate my procedure for determining a position player's value. As a result I have made the following changes :

1. I am using customized linear weights rather than XRuns to calculate a hitter's RAA.

2. I am now using DRA rather than an average of DRA and TZ to determine the fielding adjustment.
   3. DL from MN Posted: July 21, 2014 at 02:05 PM (#4755263)
1956 ballot

1) Mickey Mantle - what a terrific season
2) Early Wynn - top pitcher
3) Yogi Berra - C bonus; postseason bonus edges him above Snider
4) Duke Snider - top NL player, good postseason
5) Herb Score
6) Johnny Antonelli - top NL pitcher
7) Willie Mays
8) Henry Aaron
9) Harvey Kuenn
10) Ed Bailey - C bonus

11-15) Frank Lary, Warren Spahn, Al Kaline, Whitey Ford, Johnny Logan
16-19) Minnie Minoso, Gil McDougald, Charlie Maxwell, Don Newcombe
   4. toratoratora Posted: July 21, 2014 at 06:53 PM (#4755409)
1-Mantle: Triple crown. 52 HR, .353/.464/.705/1.169. 210 OPS+, 376 TB. Plus fielder, plus runner. Only four GiDP. Per WAR, tied for the 2nd greatest season by a CF ever (Trails Cobbs 1917 by .1). Who's the tie with? Mantle 57.
2-Berra: 30 HR, .298/.378/.534/.911, 142 OPS+. Only 29 K's (More HR than K). Actually was IBB more than Mantle. Postseason God-3 HR,.360/.448/.800/1.248, 20 TB.
3-Snider: 43 HR, .292/.399/.598/.997, 155 OPS+, +12 rField.
4-Score: 2.53 ERA, 166 ERA+, 263 K's. 2.77 FiP. 5.8 H/9, 9.5 K/9. Wynn has 30 more innings but Score has better 105 extra K's.
5-Aaron: .328/.365/.558/.923, 151 OPS+, +15 rField,34 2b,14 3b and 26 HR lead to 340 TB
6-Mays: 36 HR, 40 SB,.296/.369/.557/.926, 146 OPS+, +13 rField, +6 rBase
7-Wynn: 2.72 ERA, 154 ERA+, 277 IP.
8-Kaline:32 2b, 10 3b, 27 HR,.314/.383/.530/.913,139 OPS+,327 TB,+11 rField.
9-Saturnino Orestes Armas(Arrieta)Minoso: 29 2b,11 3b,21 HR,.316/.425/.525/.950,149 OPS+, 23 HBP.
10-Spahn: 288 IP, 2.78 ERA, 1.070 WHIP.

The Best of the Rest,in order: Matthews, Newcombe, Williams, Antonelli, Pierce

   5. Moeball Posted: July 21, 2014 at 09:57 PM (#4755507)
Final same as Prelim 1956 ballot:

1) Mickey
2) Early "Got the" Wynn
3) Herb "Pitched to the" Score
4) Yogi
5) the Duke
6) Willie
7) Hank Aaron
8) Al Kaline
9) Don Newcombe
10)F. Robinson

With apologies to (just missed the top 10): T. Williams, S. Musial (can't believe this year was so deep these guys couldn't crack the top 10!), J. Antonelli, W. Spahn, F. Lary, B. Lemon, W. Ford, M. Minoso, C. Maxwell, J. Gilliam, K. Boyer, E. Mathews, R. Ashburn.
   6. Qufini Posted: July 22, 2014 at 07:33 PM (#4755972)
1956 Ballot

1. Mickey Mantle, CF, New York Yankees: "Wow!" That is all.
2. Yogi Berra, C, New York Yankees: 142 OPS+ and 108 runs created on top of +5 defense at catcher
3. Duke Snider, CF, Brooklyn Dodgers: leads the senior circuit in both OPS+ (155) and RC (128); adds another +12 on defense
4. Willie Mays, CF, New York Giants: +13 on defense to go with 146 OPS+ and 118 RC3.
5. Ted Williams, LF, Boston Red Sox: an off-year for Williams is still a 172 OPS+ with 121 RC; playing time and defensive position keep him behind Snider and Mays
6. Early Wynn, P, Cleveland Indians: 277 innings pitched to go with a 154 ERA+
7. Hank Aaron, RF, Milwaukee Braves: 151 OPS+; +15 on defense in right field
8. Herb Score, P, Cleveland Indians: the famous phenom put up a 166 ERA+ in 249 innings
9. Ernie Banks, SS, Chicago Cubs: 136 OPS+ for Mr. Cub
10. Minnie Minoso, LF, Chicago White Sox: the should-be Hall of Famer had a 149 OPS+ and 130 RC; just beats out Eddie Mathews for the last ballot spot.

11. Eddie Mathews, 3B, Milwaukee Braves: 143 OPS+ and 114 RC
12. Frank Robinson, RF, Cincinnati Reds: 143 OPS+ and 121 RC but behind Mathews' because of def. position
13. Al Kaline, RF, Detroit Tigers
14. Frank Lary, P, Detroit Tigers
15. Warren Spahn, P, Milwaukee Braves: the best pitcher in the NL, but not by much
   7. neilsen Posted: July 27, 2014 at 09:28 PM (#4758767)
Final 1956 Ballot.

1. Mickey Mantle- wow
2. Early Wynn
3. Duke Snider - plus defense and league leading OPS+
4. Herb Score
5. Willie Mays - Mays lead the majors with 40 SB. 1929 was the last time anybody in the National League had stolen 40 or more bases. Hadn't been done in the majors since 1944.
6. Yogi Berra
7. Hank Aaron
8. Frank Robinson
9. Al Kaline
10. Don Newcombe

11. Warren Spahn
12. John Antonelli
13. Minnie Minoso
14. Ted Williams
15. Whitey Ford

   8. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: July 28, 2014 at 10:50 PM (#4759477)
Final ballot, no postseason bonus but in some cases a small bonus for being part of a Pennant contender

1. Mantle-easy #1
2. Snider
3. Score
4. Wynn
5. Berra
6. Aaron
7. Robinson-excellent rookie year
8. Kaline
9. Mays-along with Mantle, Aaron, and Robinson, Mays will dominate the top 10 in the coming years
10.Miñoso-The more I research Miñoso, the more impressed I am. He had a great bounce back year in '56 after having his skull fractured by an accidental Bob Grim beaning the year before. Despite the injury, he only missed 15 games.

Honorable mention: Williams, Lary, and my top NL pitcher is Newcombe
   9. lieiam Posted: July 30, 2014 at 11:17 PM (#4761064)
same as my prelim:

2 WYNN, EARLY 6364
4 BERRA, YOGI 6009
5 SCORE, HERB 5875
6 AARON, HANK 5652
9 KALINE, AL 5025

11 LARY, FRANK 4950
13 BREWER, TOM 4902
17 FORD, WHITEY 4797
19 GILLIAM, JIM 4766
   10. bjhanke Posted: August 01, 2014 at 01:33 PM (#4762571)
Here's Brock Hanke's balllot for 1956. As usual, I averaged the WAR and Win Share ordinals. The only adjustment I made this year was to move Yogi Berra from 5th to 3rd. Normally I don't give catcher bonuses, because if the catcher is on the list, this must have been one of his full seasons. But Yogi also had great fun in the World Series, and that bonus I do give.

We do seem to have found Mickey Mantle's peak, haven't we?

Normally, I have what I call "must do" players, who just rank so high in one system that I think I have to override the weaker system. This year, the 11th men on my ballot list were both "must do" cases: Herb Score (5th WAR, 19th Win Shares), and Eddie Mathews (5th Win Shares). But those two would have to displace Frank Robinson and Junior Gilliam, both of whom had good consensus. I went with the superior consensus.

My best NL pitcher would be Johnny Antonelli.

My next five on the list would be Score and Mathews tied, Richie Ashburn, Antonelli, and Ted Williams by one point over Stan Musial.

The following, however, is the real ballot:

1. Mickey Mantle
2. Duke Snider
3. Yogi Berra
4. Hank Aaron
5. Early Wynn
6. Willie Mays
7. Minnie Minoso
8. Al Kaline
9. Frank Robinson
10. Junior Gilliam

- Brock Hanke
   11. DL from MN Posted: August 05, 2014 at 11:51 AM (#4764640)
Balloting closes tomorrow
   12. EricC Posted: August 05, 2014 at 01:26 PM (#4764753)
1956 will not be good for my consensus score.

1. Mickey Mantle
2. Yogi Berra
3. Early Wynn
4. Jim Gilliam - dominant compared with other 2B.
5. Herb Score
6. Hank Aaron
7. Johnny Antonelli
8. Duke Snider
9. Don Newcombe
10. Eddie Mathews

Next would be Minoso. Regrets to Willie Mays, who had a great season in another year of strong CF. Obviously, you would want him on your team.

Honorable mention to C Ed Bailey, who didn't have enough playing time
   13. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: August 05, 2014 at 02:08 PM (#4764798)
1956 Final Ballot (same as prelim):

I use a combination of WAR systems to get an average WAR for each player. I use that number to get a Dan R-style salary estimation. I divide that salary by $1 million and add 3 times the average WAR to that dividend. I use a 20% bonus for catchers and do not credit postseason except as a tiebreaker.

1. Mickey Mantle (74.19)
2. Early Wynn (42.11) – MM Pitcher
3. Yogi Berra (40.25)
4. Herb Score (38.53)
5. Willie Mays (38.21)- NL MMP
6. Duke Snider (37.86)
7. Hank Aaron (35.31)
8. Frank Lary (32.97)
9. Al Kaline (31.98)
10. Frank Robinson (31.28)

11-15. Ashburn, Minoso, Gilliam, Bailey, Antonelli (top NL pitcher).
   14. DL from MN Posted: August 05, 2014 at 02:57 PM (#4764886)
only John Murphy, SoCalDemon and sunnyday2 haven't voted among recent voters
   15. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 05, 2014 at 05:07 PM (#4765075)
Official 1956 MMP Ballot (no postseason bonuses and a league adjustment for AL players)

1) Mickey Mantle: Best ML player and center fielder - more than twice the player #2 was for '56. Greatest MMP season so far, IMO.
2) Yogi Berra: Best ML catcher.
3) Duke Snider: Best NL center fielder.
4) Early Wynn: Best ML pitcher.
5) Minnie Minoso: Best ML left fielder.
6) Hank Aaron: Best ML right fielder.
7) Eddie Mathews: Best ML third baseman.
8) Herb Score: What a career he could have had...
9) Richie Ashburn:
10) Ed Bailey: Best NL catcher.

Best NL pitcher: Don Newcombe (just missed the ballot at #11)
   16. DL from MN Posted: August 06, 2014 at 01:47 PM (#4765627)
Ballot closes in 2 hours
   17. DL from MN Posted: August 06, 2014 at 04:10 PM (#4765785)
Ballot is closed

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